Russia is wiring its long-range attack drones together by a mesh network in flight and buying pricier, higher-resolution cameras for them, Ukraine's Air Force reported on 29 September. Its spokesperson said one drone could serve as a scout, strike drone, and relay for the rest, which is why they often fly one behind another over long distances. Chains of them keep crossing near the Belarus border, UkrInform reports.

For Ukraine, the danger in each such upgrade is arithmetic: the more Russia networks cheap, once-disposable drones and pushes its control links away from the front, the harder they become to jam or shoot down, and the more of them reach the cities they are aimed at.

Sharper, pricier eyes

Ihnat said on a national broadcast that Russia is sourcing higher-quality materials and raising the resolution of its drone cameras. The cameras it buys are increasingly expensive and higher-quality, he said, which lets its operators study the ground in fine detail and use each drone for a specific purpose.

On a mesh network, he said, the drones talk to each other and hand the control signal back toward the operator, so no single link has to carry it alone.

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Chains along the Belarus border

Asked about relays operating out of Belarus and about Russia's guidance of jet-powered Shaheds, the exploding drones it fires in swarms, Ihnat said Moscow had already claimed its satellite network was ready. He confirmed mesh networks are in use and said their use was quite dangerous. Ukraine has no information yet on whether Russia is using towers, he said.

It often sees drones crossing long distances in chains along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, so nothing can be ruled out, but intelligence would have to confirm whether such relays exist. Asked whether Russia is preparing a fresh ballistic strike, he said intelligence would warn when extra vigilance is needed.

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Ukraine's countermeasures

Ihnat has also said Russia launched more attack drones in September than in August, counting 3,177 jet-powered drones so far this month against 2,850 in August. To knock them down, Ukraine leans mainly on tactical aviation, including F-16 fighters, and on ground-based air defense when missiles are available, he said, with shoulder-fired man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) working well against jet drones inside their range. He said Ukraine needs more missiles for both Patriot systems and ground-based launchers, plus faster domestic solutions it can scale up.

Russia has a new warhead for its drones, and it is built to cut down power lines. For the first time, a jet drone has carried a shaped "cumulative-cutting" charge designed to sever high-voltage pylons and iron bridges, Serhii Beskrestnov, presidential adviser, known as Flash, said, as Russia opened its heaviest assault on Ukraine's power grid since last winter.

On 30 September, Russia launched its massed fall-winter campaign on Ukraine's energy infrastructure since the last heating season, hitting power sites across 11 regions overnight with missiles and drones, Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi said.

The new warhead fits the aim: Flash says it is meant to bring down the high-voltage lines that carry the country's electricity. And Ukraine enters the winter exposed, with its energy resilience plans less than half complete.

A new charge targets the pylons

The device, which Flash calls a cumulative-cutting special load, is designed specifically to bring down high-voltage pylons and iron bridge structures.

"It consists of a main charge weighing 40 kilograms and four strike modules," he says.

In his reading, Russia intends to go after the major transmission lines that move power across the country, the backbone of the grid, rather than the substations it has struck before.

The campaign builds toward November

On 29 September, two senior Ukrainian officials told The Economist that Russia launched a three-part campaign of attacks on Kyiv, combining massive bombardments, sabotage, and the creation of political chaos. These efforts aimed at destabilizing the Ukrainian capital would peak by November, they said.

According to a representative of the Security Service of Ukraine, Russia has "thousands" of drones in its arsenal and is simultaneously expanding its stockpile of ballistic missiles. The plan is to "deploy the entire arsenal over the next two months," given that Ukraine lacks an effective weapon against jet-powered drones.

A Russian drone exploded in Moldova on 30 September, detonating near the mast of a civilian mobile operator, TV8 reported. Despite previous such attacks, this one may have another purpose, according to Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst.

Moldova, which borders Ukraine and is not in NATO, has become a regular waypoint and casualty of Russia's drone war, with wreckage turning up repeatedly this year. What sets this strike apart is its timing, days into a fight over the country's pro-EU president.

A drone hits a telecoms mast

Police were alerted at 5:43 a.m. to a drone flying low over Bender, in Transnistria, the general police inspectorate said. It came down near Hîrbovăț and detonated against the mast of a civilian mobile operator, leaving blast marks along about 12 meters of the structure, with the metal deformed and scorched. Service was not disrupted. Police cordoned off the area, and specialists were examining the debris.

A second drone follows

Hours later, at 10:26, Moldova's air-monitoring system detected a second drone crossing its airspace, jet-powered and heading toward the northern town of Soroca, Moldova's Defense Ministry reported, according to European Pravda.

Flights were suspended over the country's north and center. Parliament speaker Igor Grosu condemned the strike: "Russia will answer for its war crimes," he says.

An analyst ties it to the impeachment

Meanwhile, Russian drones entering Moldova on this day is no coincidence, he argues, coming as the opposition moves against President Maia Sandu.

On 29 September, 46 opposition lawmakers registered a motion to suspend her, a step that would need 67 of parliament's 101 votes to pass and, if approved, a referendum within 30 days, Moldova Live reported.

Kovalenko contends pro-Russian forces are running a destabilization campaign they will reinforce with periodic drone attacks, pressing a message at Moldovans: "if you don't want war, get rid of Sandu."

Russia is preparing to make daily life in Kyiv harder before winter, aiming at the ordinary places civilians use rather than at military sites, The Economist reported. Ukrainian officials say the push blends bombing, sabotage, and disinformation, and expect it to peak in November.

Every winter of its full-scale invasion, Russia has tried to freeze Ukrainians into surrender, and each year the strikes reach deeper into ordinary life. The civilian casualties recorded in 2026 have already passed the whole of last year, the UN says.

From the power grid to the grocery store

Russia has already turned its drones on Kyiv's supermarkets, food warehouses, and data centers this year. On 28 September, a Russian jet drone struck the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv. The strike killed two people, the Academy said. Survivors climbed from the windows of the burning building. A senior Ukrainian official told The Economist the Kremlin now wants shoppers too afraid to enter a store. Russia is also keeping its winter routine, hitting electricity, water, and sewage systems.

Cheaper jet drones that stream live to their pilots

Most of the damage now comes from Russia's cheap jet drones, The Economist said. Pilots guide them onto targets and watch a live video feed. They are hard to stop, and Russia's ballistic missiles are deadlier still as Ukraine's supply of Patriot interceptors dwindles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv had agreed a new Patriot interceptor package, but it remains short of interceptors of its own. A security official told The Economist that Russia has thousands of drones stockpiled and plans to use its entire ballistic missile stock within two months.

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Sabotage, chaos, and a city that won't switch off

Ukraine's counter-intelligence services say they foil seven or eight Russian plots a week, and officials believe some sleeper cells remain. The campaign's third element, disinformation, targets war fatigue and corruption scandals. Russia runs the same plan every year, hoping its bot farms will push Ukrainians onto the streets to demand surrender, said Andrii Kovalenko, who heads the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council.

"It's nonsense," he told The Economist, adding that someone is feeding the idea to Putin so they can steal more money.

Kyiv is also far harder to shut down than Moscow assumes, Kovalenko said. The city's internet is too decentralized for a handful of strikes to knock out, The Economist noted. Energy expert Olha Babii said the test is how fast crews restore power, not whether it can be destroyed. The capital is emptying, its population down from about 3.7 million to 3.3 million by The Economist's count.

A Ukrainian defense company has shown a new way to knock FPV drones out of the sky, unveiling a net-firing interceptor at the IT Arena tech conference in Lviv, dev.ua reported. The system, called Mangal and developed by Phantom Defense, is still a prototype—the company says the first production units could reach the market in a few months.

Ukraine's counter-drone work has turned into a crowded contest, with firms racing to field jammers, interceptor drones, and net-throwers that can blunt Russia's growing use of cheap FPVs.

What Mangal does

Phantom Defense designed the modular launcher to defend positions, vehicles, and other targets against enemy drones. It fires a special net weighted with sinkers. The net opens the moment it fires, tangling the drone and dragging it down. One module holds six charges. Two cameras give the crew a clearer view, and the system can detect targets on its own, which speeds up how fast an operator spots a threat. Crews can fix Mangal in place to guard checkpoints, trenches, or infrastructure, or bolt it onto a vehicle.

Why a net

FPV drones—aircraft a pilot flies straight into a target—have become a routine danger along the front. A small, fast drone is hard to hit with a single round. A net spreads as it travels, so it is more forgiving to aim. Neither Phantom Defense nor the outlets covering the launch have said how far Mangal's net can reach.

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Other net-based counters

Other developers are turning to nets too. The WINFLY Spider is an interceptor drone that snares a target in a net and returns to its launch point intact, at about $27 a shot. That lets one aircraft make repeated intercepts instead of being spent on a single kill. Scan Horizon comes from Postup Solutions, a firm registered in Wrocław, Poland, and pairs a net launcher from Ukrainian company Ptashka Drones. Its net reaches about 30 meters. Contra Drone, meanwhile, has shown interceptor missiles that can reportedly carry net warheads alongside other options.

Ukrainian company Vyriy Industries is bringing a new tactical reconnaissance drone, Slavic, to the market, Oboronka reports, citing information from the manufacturer. The control system of the new drone will be familiar to DJI Mavic operators, the company also said.

Mavic has long been one of the main reconnaissance tools used by Ukrainian forces, with Ukraine relying heavily on supplies of these drones from abroad. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said China had stopped selling drones to Ukraine, the country began seeking alternatives. Slavic is one of these domestic alternatives, designed not only to replace Mavic but also to adapt its capabilities to current battlefield conditions, allowing reconnaissance crews to operate farther from the line of contact and reducing risks to personnel.

Slavic has a tactical range of up to 30 kilometers without GPS

Slavic can remain airborne for up to 1.5 hours because it is equipped with a 40,000 mAh solid-state battery, the media outlet notes. The drone has a tactical range of up to 30 kilometers, the report says.

The aircraft can operate without GPS, as Slavic uses optical positioning for navigation. The pilot can also select a less congested channel and operate more effectively in difficult terrain because the communications system operates across a wide range of channels.

The manufacturer notes that for surveillance, Slavic is equipped with a daytime 2K digital camera mounted on a three-axis stabilized gimbal, with 10x optical and 30x hybrid zoom.

The system is supplied as a ready-to-use package “out of the box,” with all the equipment needed for operation without additional field modifications.

The drone is designed to keep crews farther from the front line

The company said its new drone has successfully completed initial combat trials with seven units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and is preparing for scale-up, the media outlet notes.

“The war has changed, and so have the working conditions for crews. The kill zone has expanded, while available commercial drones have a limited tactical range. The main task now is to provide the military with a specialized platform that can fly longer and farther, so crews can operate farther from the line of contact. This is exactly why we began developing Slavic,” said Oleksii Babenko, founder and CEO of Vyriy Industries.

At the same time, the team is working on new Slavic configurations, including testing thermal imaging modules for nighttime reconnaissance. The manufacturer is also preparing the platform for scaled-up production and deliveries to the Ukrainian Defense Forces, the company told the media.

“Frankensteins” and Ukrainian-made drones are among the options for replacing scarce Mavics

The Ukrainian military had widely used Chinese DJI Mavic 3 drones, including to adjust artillery fire, monitor infantry positions and conduct surveillance, prompting Ukraine to seek ways to replace the shortage. More than five alternatives to the Chinese drone had already been developed in Ukraine, the Ministry of Strategic Industries of Ukraine confirmed to RBC-Ukraine in July 2025.

There are also other options for replacing them. The main work in military units is being done with “Frankensteins,” drones assembled from two or three damaged aircraft, Mavic UAV pilot instructor “Dobryi” said in an interview with Militarnyi in July this year. At the same time, such drones are less reliable than new ones, he added.

Ukrainian defense-tech firm BlueBird Tech has begun renting out its Hrets electronic-warfare jammers by the day, in what it calls Ukraine's first such service, the company said on 29 September 2026. Electronic-warfare gear—the devices that scramble the radio links attack drones rely on—is normally bought outright, renting lets a user take a system for a single mission or test it before committing.

The pull is a war where cheap first-person-view (FPV) drones have made portable jamming a routine need, one many users face only for a stint.

How renting works

After paperwork and a deposit equal to the device's full price, the system is handed over, and that handover counts as day one. Each day's rent is then drawn from the deposit, return the system working and undamaged and the renter gets back what is left. Keep it long enough that the fees add up to the full price, and the jammer passes to the renter automatically. Renting is open to individuals, companies, charities, and volunteer groups.

Three models, and what each one jams

The Hrets XL is a modular FPV jammer built from two to 10 working modules, priced case by case. The vehicle-mounted Hrets 4MC is an anti-drop system that jams DJI Mavic-type quadcopters—the drones Russian forces use to drop munitions—for about $56 a day. The lightweight Hrets 4M jams FPV drones at a stated 70 to 400 meters for about $67 a day. One Ukrainian firm has even packed detection, decoding, and jamming of an FPV signal into a single device.

A Russian drone struck near the Yahodyn border crossing on the Ukrainian-Polish border, the Ukrainian Border Service and the Polish Armed Forces Operational Command reported on 28 September. Geolocated footage of the attack shows the jet-powered Geran-5 striking near the facility. Following the incident, Poland is reviewing its air security measures.

Russia systematically strikes Ukraine’s border crossings to complicate logistics. Russian strikes near the Ukrainian-Polish border have increased over the past month. Yahodyn is one of the largest border crossings with Poland, on a route leading, among other destinations, to Warsaw, and has repeatedly been used by senior foreign officials visiting Ukraine.

The blast wave damaged the checkpoint building at the terminal entrance, Ivan Romaniuk, head of the Volyn Regional Military Administration, reported on 28 September. It was a jet-powered drone, but there was “preliminarily no direct hit” on the border crossing, BBC Ukraine reported, citing its own sources in the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.

Russian drone strikes near Yahodyn

On the afternoon of 28 September, Poland reported the involvement of Polish military aviation because of Russian drone attacks against Ukraine. That day, it was also reported that the airports in Rzeszów and Lublin suspended operations.

Jacek Horyszewski, a spokesperson for the Polish Armed Forces Operational Command, said on TVN24 that a Russian drone had struck near the Yahodyn border crossing in Volyn Oblast on the border with Poland.

Romaniuk confirmed the attack in the village of Starovoitove, Kovel district, Volyn Oblast, where the Yahodyn international border crossing is located.

“There have been no reports of injuries or fatalities,” he said.

Videos that appeared online show the drone falling in a forest near people and border infrastructure.

The Russians carry out such attacks on Ukraine’s western regions using repeaters on Belarusian territory that amplify signals for Shahed- and Gerbera-type drones, BBC Ukraine reported, citing State Border Guard Service data.

Poland is already considering changes to its air security rules after the incident

The same day, Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said Poland will change its engagement rules "in the coming days." Currently, helicopter and fighter jet pilots can use weapons only after visually identifying a target: the aircraft must approach the object and determine what it is. After the rules are changed, however, a pilot or operational commander will be able to make a decision to engage based solely on radar data.

“It is notable that Polish authorities have taken this step as NATO states attempt to find an adequate response to Russian drones nearing or entering their airspace from Ukraine, often leaving NATO air defense insufficient time to identify and target such threats before they have entered allied airspace,” the Institute for the Study of War noted in its 28 September report.

Recent strikes near the Polish border

On 10 September, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that Poland had prevented a threat to one of its border crossings with Ukraine overnight and expected its border crossings to be attacked as Moscow targets trade routes in an attempt to economically weaken Kyiv. He made the statement after drones struck a border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova on the previous day, killing two people.

On 13 September, Russian forces struck the locomotive of a passenger train two kilometers from the Polish border and hit a gas station near the Yahodyn international border crossing on the Ukrainian-Polish border.

The drone attack forced passengers on a train from Ukraine to leave the carriages for safety. Those evacuated included Boris Johnson, security advisers to European governments, German Bundestag lawmakers, diplomats, and academics.

After the Russian attacks, Poland deployed military units on the border with Ukraine and strengthened infrastructure near the border crossings, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on 15 September.

On 17 September, Russian forces struck near the Yahodyn border crossing with a jet-powered drone.

Ukraine's air defenders now have purpose-built interceptors for Russia's jet-powered attack drones—weapons whose speed and altitude make them difficult for conventional defenses to catch, Militarnyi reported. A crew from the 1020th Anti-Aircraft Missile and Artillery Regiment downed a Geran-5 over Chernihiv Oblast with a newly delivered interceptor, according to the Serhiy Prytula Foundation.

Russia's long-range drone and missile attacks have become central to its effort to wear down Ukraine's air defenses and grid before winter, and the war in the sky now turns on which side scales its answer faster.

The Chernihiv intercept

The crew, callsign Yastrub (Hawk), made its first successful engagement with the new interceptor, hitting the jet drone at 425 km/h and above 3 km, the foundation said, releasing footage of the strike. The Prytula Foundation supplied the interceptors and said it has contracted several manufacturers to counter the jet threat.

"Our task is to scale this up and strengthen units," it said.

Why it kept slipping through

Russia first used the Geran-5 in January 2026. HUR's own specifications put its warhead at 90 kg, cruise speed at 450–600 km/h, and range at 950 km, with a ceiling of 6 km. That mix of jet speed and high altitude kept it clear of machine guns, shoulder-fired missiles, and the cheap interceptors built to swat slower piston-engine Shaheds.

Ukraine's military intelligence estimates Russian plants now turn out around 3,000 jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones a month, according to HUR. A monitoring Telegram channel, Polkovnyk HSh, reports a newer variant that steers by ground imagery instead of satellites, which would blunt jamming—though HUR has not confirmed it and lists no such system among the drone's components. Separately, Russia moved the jet engine inside the fuselage, a change aimed at more speed and range.

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Where the fight stands

Ukraine intercepts about 55% of Russia's jet drones, against more than 90% of the older models, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 26 September. Since the start of September, Russia had launched more than 2,730 jet drones, and Ukraine had downed or suppressed more than 1,500, he added. Zelenskyy also said Russia plans to spend $12 billion in 2027 on jet drones and loitering munitions alone. Ukraine already has several interceptor prototypes in combat use, and the 1020th crew's kill is one of several jet Geran intercepts Ukrainian units and drone makers have logged this month.

Russia has quietly started a new round of mobilization and plans to bring in more North Korean troops, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. He cited a new report from Ukraine's military intelligence. The same day, the Kremlin published a decree enlarging Russia's army for the fourth time this year.

Russia widens recruitment at home and abroad

Zelenskyy spoke in his evening address on 28 September, after a briefing from Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR).

"In effect, the Russians have already begun additional mobilization—they are increasing the number of people they recruit through various means," he said.

Moscow also plans to recruit more foreigners, Zelenskyy said. He urged the governments of countries whose citizens Russia recruits to counter it, and said Kyiv would inform each of them.

Ukraine says Russia has been losing soldiers faster than contract recruitment replaces them. If so, an unannounced call-up lets the Kremlin refill its ranks without a formal draft. ISW says Putin may hold off on such a draft until he sees whether his strikes work. Ukrainian intelligence had expected Russia to announce a mass mobilization after this month's State Duma elections.

More than 8,000 North Koreans in Russia, 10,000 more in preparation

More than 8,000 North Korean troops are currently on Russian territory, Zelenskyy said. Pyongyang is selecting another 10,000 for training and deployment to Russia, he added.

Russia is paying, among other things, with technology, according to Zelenskyy. North Korea has launched production of Shahed-type attack drones with Russian technical support, he said.

That is a step beyond what Kyiv reported in June 2025. Moscow and Pyongyang had then only agreed to start preparing such production. In August, Zelenskyy warned that Russia could receive up to 50,000 North Korean troops.

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Kremlin raises the army's size again

Putin's decree sets the authorized strength of Russia's armed forces at 2,441,630, including 1,550,500 military personnel, Vedomosti reported. The decree gives no reason.

The order adds 15,500 troops and is the fourth such increase this year, Euronews said. Since March, the combined increase has reached 47,860 soldiers. Putin's 2022 "partial mobilization" decree also remains in force, the outlet noted.

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Moscow keeps denying a call-up

In early September, Putin claimed that reports of a coming mobilization were "complete nonsense" and "an information attack on Russia." Russian officials gave similar assurances days before the 2022 call-up.

Ukraine's military and foreign intelligence had earlier said that Russia's General Staff prepared a scenario to mobilize 600,000 people over 2026 and 2027, 300,000 each year.

Russia is likely attempting to force Ukraine to capitulate by spring 2027 through a large-scale campaign of long-range strikes, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its 27 September report. Russian President Vladimir Putin's new theory of victory relies heavily on the mass use of jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles against Ukraine, the institute assesses.

Russia keeps shifting to faster jet-powered drones that Ukraine's defenses struggle to stop, forcing it to spend scarce missiles on them. Russia's use of jet-powered drones rose eightfold from June to August, with Moscow launching around 7,700 such drones since their initial deployment, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on 23 September. But Putin likely does not expect the campaign to last indefinitely, and he may hold off on a new mobilization until he sees whether the strikes work, ISW assesses.

Putin's modified theory of victory

Putin's modified theory of victory largely depends on Russia's ability to mass-launch cheap jet-powered Gerans that get through Ukrainian defenses often enough, the institute notes.

Even a Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger claimed on 27 September that the Russian strategy, which relies heavily on long-range strikes, is costly and cannot continue indefinitely, not least because Ukraine is hitting Russia harder too, according to the analysis.

At the same time, Putin stated on 25 September that Ukraine "must feel" Russia's "retaliatory" strikes. ISW assesses that this suggests he intends to intensify Russia's strike campaign in winter, as he has in previous winters.

If Putin is counting on Ukraine to break and capitulate this winter, he may be ignoring what the campaign will cost Russia over time, the institute notes. This strategy also counts on Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptors against ballistic missiles, and on the country's power grid and other vital systems giving way under months of strikes.

Until that approach runs out, Putin is unlikely to back down on his demands or agree to real ceasefire talks, ISW assesses.

Ukrainian interceptors could disrupt Russia's plan

A Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger claimed on 27 September that Russian forces launched predominantly jet-powered Geran-5 drones at Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv during the night of 26–27 September. According to the blogger, Russia's diverse arsenal of strike weapons and Ukraine's shortage of air defense assets allow Russian forces to maintain the current pace of strikes and expand the range of targets, ISW writes in its analysis.

At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 26 September that Ukraine's interception rate for jet-powered Shahed drones currently stands at 55%. Of more than 2,730 such drones Russia had launched in September by then, Ukrainian forces had downed or suppressed more than 1,500, he added.

Ukraine is testing interceptor drone prototypes in combat conditions, Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov told Novyny.LIVE on 27 September. The mass deployment of interceptors capable of shooting down jet-powered Gerans could begin within several months, he added. Ukrainian companies have already successfully tested several interceptor drones capable of intercepting Russian jet-powered drones in field conditions, the institute notes.

At the same time, it remains unclear whether Ukraine will be able to scale up its interceptor program quickly enough and achieve sufficient success to disrupt the intensification of Russia's campaign during the winter, ISW notes.

Why Putin may hold off on a new mobilization

Expanding Russia's arsenal of strike weapons is cheaper than carrying out a second mobilization economically, militarily, and socially, a Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger cited by the institute claimed.

Putin may put off large-scale forced mobilization until he sees whether the strikes deliver, ISW assesses, though his officials have been laying the groundwork for it despite Kremlin denials. Still, the need to replace Russia's enormous battlefield losses could push him to order such a mobilization as early as this fall, ISW notes, as Ukrainian and other sources have repeatedly reported he is preparing to do.

Russia's low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation Rassvet went from a few minutes of connectivity over Ukraine to two stable windows lasting more than an hour each in just five months. The system was built by the Russian private company Bureau 1440 as Moscow's answer to Starlink.

As of now, it is nowhere near matching SpaceX's 10,000-satellite network—but the gap between what Russia has now and what it needs is closing, and the tools that could slow it down mostly sit unused. When Ukraine and SpaceX bricked Russian-obtained Starlink terminals earlier this year, Russian assaults froze across the front—proof that cutting satellite command-and-control links matters more than disrupting guidance. Russia is now building its own links. The most consequential tool that could slow that down is Western sanctions against Bureau 1440 itself.

Four years of Western sanctions have failed to cut Russia off from the foreign components its missile and drone factories rely on: parts manufactured after sanctions were imposed still reach Russian assembly lines within months. Rassvet is a new version of the same problem. The system is still being built and relies on imported components whose exact origin is disputed—some experts point to American and European parts reaching Russia through sanctions-evasion networks, others say the core hardware is built from off-the-shelf Chinese components. Its manufacturer remains unsanctioned by any Western government, while some of the infrastructure needed to expand production has already been struck by Ukraine.

Six minutes in March, two hours by August

In March 2026, Bureau 1440 launched its first operational batch of 16 Rassvet satellites from Plesetsk Cosmodrome. Each pass over Ukraine created a window of six to 10 minutes, Serhii Beskrestnov, callsign Flash, a Ukrainian presidential adviser on defense technology, estimated at the time.

By late August, the picture had changed. Tracking data from N2YO showed four passes a day and two stable communication windows lasting more than an hour each. Satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepanets said that 12 of the 16 satellites from the first batch had reached their operational altitude of 550 km, three were still ascending, and one had burned up—likely due to a manufacturing defect. A second batch of 16 went into orbit in July, though those satellites struggled to reach their target altitude and some may reenter the atmosphere.

The second batch may be climbing faster than the first did at the same stage. Still, Russia is far from the 200–250 satellites Beskrestnov considers necessary for stable, round-the-clock coverage, and the altitude of roughly 550 km is still short of the roughly 800 km the constellation is designed to reach.

What Rassvet would change on the battlefield

Russia is unlikely to have any civilian use in mind for these communication windows. The satellites transmit in the Ka and Ku bands—high-frequency signals that are difficult to jam and difficult to detect.

Right now, Ukraine's electronic warfare can push Russian drones offline: a Shahed flying low through a jammed zone loses its link and drifts off course. A satellite relay overhead would change that. The drone holds its course, receives updated coordinates mid-flight, stays below radar, and strikes. The constellation could do this for long-range strike and naval drones alike—letting them operate through electronic warfare at very low altitudes, where Ukraine's air defenses struggle to see them.

Bureau 1440 has also developed user terminals small enough to fit on Geran-type attack drones and cruise missiles. Gerans have struck Ukrainian territory, including Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, almost continuously over the past month. A terminal on a Geran would turn a one-way munition into a weapon that can be redirected after launch. Unlike the Starlink terminals Ukraine relies on, which are geographically restricted, Russian terminals are expected to face no such limits—the same terminal that connects a Geran over Kyiv Oblast would work over Berlin or Paris.

The sanctions lever—and the gap in it

Rassvet's parent company, IKS Holding, is one of Russia's largest hardware and software developers. The US sanctioned the holding, its then-owner Anton Cherepennikov, and the subsidiaries Kryptonit and KNS Group on 24 February 2023. Cherepennikov died under unexplained circumstances, but the company keeps operating.

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) says the holding serves as a personnel reserve for the Federal Security Service (FSB). The first deputy CEO of IKS Holding is Boris Korolyov, son of FSB First Deputy Director Sergei Korolyov, according to the SZRU. He took the post at 27 in 2023, after Cherepennikov's death.

More importantly, though, is the company that actually builds the satellites—Bureau 1440—and its leadership. Ukraine has placed the company on its own sanctions list, but Kyiv's unilateral designations carry limited trade enforcement power, because these people and this company are absent from Western lists. At Euromaidan Press's request, the US-based research organization C4ADS confirmed that Bureau 1440 and its leadership sit outside every Western sanctions regime, and called designating the manufacturer the single most visible and effective step available.

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From the Ukrainian side, Viktoriia Vyshnivska, a senior analyst at the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), told Euromaidan Press that sanctions on Bureau 1440 are not a magic button—but they are not pointless, either. Because Bureau 1440 uses Western equipment, designating the company would directly affect trade in those boards and components, she said. Any Western manufacturer that kept doing business with the company would also risk investigation and legal consequences.

Given the reach of Russia's sanctions-evasion networks and its close ties with China in joint production and technology sharing.

"We shouldn't expect a magical effect," Vyshnivska said.

But sanctions would make direct trade impossible and raise the cost and difficulty of sourcing Western components.

Even if the useful window is short, making supplies more expensive and harder to find is the point.

Many of the goods Bureau 1440 uses are already banned from sale to Russia under EU export controls, Vyshnivska noted. Yet Bureau 1440 itself is still absent from the sanctions lists. Her recommendation: Bureau 1440, its current owners, its parent company, the key related entities and individuals, and its main suppliers should all be designated.

Diplomacy: Ukraine goes to the ITU

Beyond that, Ukraine is trying to act on its own on several fronts.

The first is diplomacy. On 28 August, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine had sent a formal note to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN agency that coordinates radio frequencies, demanding that Ukrainian territory be excluded from Rassvet's service areas across all frequency bands. The system's use over Ukraine "has nothing to do with civilian purposes," he wrote on X.

Days later, at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Ireland, Sybiha handed partners a list of nine legal entities linked to the project and urged them to impose sanctions.

The EU had already moved once: its 21st sanctions package, adopted on 23 July, targeted the Rassvet network. But the main gap is not closed, and that round stopped short of the manufacturer, leaving Bureau 1440 and its chief executive off the lists.

Hitting the supply chain with weapons

Another lever is direct strikes. In mid-August, Ukrainian-made Flamingo cruise missiles struck an industrial zone in Samara that houses the Progress Rocket Space Center—the only plant in Russia that serially assembles the Soyuz-2.1b rockets used to launch Rassvet into orbit. Satellite imagery published by the Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ showed a collapsed roof section 85 meters long and 35 meters wide over Building 106A, the hall where crews wire the rockets' control systems and cabling. The channel reported two missile hits on that hall.

If the hall was destroyed, production could stop entirely, and switching to other Russian launch vehicles would take significantly longer and add complexity. Drones also attempted to strike Plesetsk Cosmodrome, from which both 2026 batches were launched.

Both targets—the factory that builds the rockets and the site that launches them—are needed if Russia is to expand Rassvet production.

The timeline: 5.5 to eight years, if nothing changes

Russia plans to expand the constellation to 292 satellites by the end of 2027, Deputy Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) Vadym Skibitskyi said. Moscow's longer-term goal is 924 satellites by 2035.

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With 32 satellites already launched in two batches, 260 more are needed. At 16 satellites per launch, that requires roughly 17 launches. At a four-month interval between launches, deploying them would take roughly 5.5 years even if every launch succeeded and every satellite reached its target orbit. That most likely won't fully work out: one satellite from the first batch is already lost, two from the second batch may be lost as well, and none of them has yet reached the required altitude.

Russia also depends on the scarce Soyuz-2.1b rocket. The rocket has averaged only six to eight launches per year since 2022—most committed to GLONASS navigation satellites, ISS resupply, and military payloads—limiting Russia to a theoretical maximum of roughly two Rassvet-dedicated launches per year, or 128 Rassvet satellites over four years at that rate.

There is still time to shut this project down or slow it. Vyshnivska put the useful window to slow Rassvet at about a year. Russia, by Ukrainian calculations, needs five to eight years to see it through.

Ukraine's defense forces intercepted 55% of Russia's jet-propelled drones in September—more than 1,500 out of over 2,730 launched—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his 26 September evening address.

Russia's full-scale aerial campaign has shifted from propeller-driven Shaheds Ukraine learned to shoot down at over 90% to jet-propelled models that fly faster, resist jamming, and often slip past existing defenses.

55% and climbing

Zelenskyy said military intelligence had briefed him on Russian weapons production—not just jet Shaheds but other technological systems. The documents detail what Moscow is preparing for next year: the volumes and the financing. "We are preparing our countermeasures, and for every line item there must be a Ukrainian answer," he said.

Several effective interceptor prototypes are already in combat.

"Interceptors have been identified that can become the main tool of our defense. Production, components—all of this we are scaling up. There will be an answer," Zelenskyy said.

The goal is to match the interception rate for regular propeller-driven Shaheds, which exceeds 90%. At 55%, the jet-drone rate is climbing but still leaves nearly half reaching their targets.

$12 billion for one category

Russia plans to spend $12 billion in 2027 on jet drones and loitering munitions alone, Zelenskyy said. "This concerns not only Ukraine and not only us," he added, warning that multiple intelligence agencies have information Russia wants to expand its war to other countries and regions.

He said this is why Ukraine is pushing for stronger sanctions and the Drone Deal format. Ukraine has signed 11 such agreements, the latest with Finland at the UN General Assembly this week, and is preparing a 12th with what Zelenskyy called "a strong country."

The warning came as Russia struck a Kyiv data center twice on the morning of 27 September, injuring three people including two children, Zelenskyy wrote. Overnight strikes killed three people in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and one man in Kyiv.

In total this week, Russia launched more than 2,200 strike drones, roughly 1,650 aerial bombs, and 38 missiles—a significant share of them ballistic—at Ukraine, he said.

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Jet drones are now Russia's main aerial weapon

Russia's jet-propelled Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones have become the dominant threat in Russia's aerial campaign against Ukrainian cities. By August, production of jet Geran-4/5 models exceeded that of propeller-driven Geran-2s, according to Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR). Russian factories produce roughly 3,000 jet models per month alongside about 2,800 of the older type. The Geran-5 is technically a drone but functions as a small cruise missile—faster, harder to jam, and increasingly guided by AI and mesh networking that complicate interception.

Ukraine's answer has been interceptor drones—cheap, fast enough to chase a Geran, and guided by machine vision. A Ukrainian interceptor recently scored its first kills against jet Gerans and is heading into mass production, though a presidential adviser warned that speed alone cannot catch them—machine vision and automatic guidance decide the chase.

Ukraine has destroyed a record 76 Russian air-defense systems this month, and September is not over. The tally beats a record that had stood since July 2023 and reflects a systematic Ukrainian campaign to hunt down Russia's air defenses, opening the skies over occupied territory and inside Russia, the analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said on Telegram.

Ukraine is methodically peeling apart Russia's layered air defense, and September has been its worst month yet: 76 systems destroyed, past the 73 lost in July 2023, by Kovalenko's count, with days still to go.

It is part of a campaign in which Ukrainian drones and special forces have hunted Russian radars and missile launchers across occupied territory and Crimea, and each one destroyed opens a corridor for the next strike.

The record falls with days to spare

Kovalenko credited Ukraine's Defense Forces' sustained hunt for Russian anti-air, which he said pays off twice: it clears the defenses that would otherwise stop Ukraine's strikes, making later attacks on occupied territory and on Russia itself more effective.

Each kill opens a corridor

Ukrainian drone and special-operations units have picked off Pantsir, Tor, Buk, and pieces of S-300 and S-400 systems across occupied territory and Crimea, sometimes several in a single night throughout 2026.

As Russia pulls its scarce long-range systems back to guard Moscow, fewer are left to cover occupied Ukraine, widening the openings for the next wave of Ukrainian strikes.

Russia cannot replace the losses

Over the full-scale war, Kovalenko said, Russia has lost more than 1,673 air-defense systems of every kind, from radars to surface-to-air missiles and self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.

That, he argued, is a level Moscow can no longer make good with a defense industry already stretched thin by the war.

"Such a quantity of equipment Russia will never be able to restore and compensate," he thinks.

He added that this means it would no longer be able to return to the pre-war level of closing the sky, neither technically nor technologically."

Last winter, eight Ukrainian companies told the defense minister that their interceptors were ready to knock Russia's jet-powered drones out of the sky. They were not. A fast-flying drone is the easy part of the design, while combat testing exposed what the interceptors lacked in key features to chase an evading jet-powered Geran, presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov, known as Flash, said in an interview with NV.

Ukraine's answer to Russia's fast, hard-to-stop jet drones was supposed to be cheap interceptors, and last winter, their makers said they had them. But a jet Geran flies 450 to 500 kilometers an hour, up from the Geran-3's 320, varies its speed to slip past defenses, and will dodge harder once interceptors appear.

Catching one takes maneuverability, machine-vision target-lock, and fuel to loiter and search, not just speed, Flash said. Ukraine's cheap interceptors have already downed about half of Russia's slower drones, but the jet-powered systems have stayed a step ahead.

Eight makers said "ready"

At a meeting last winter called by Mykhailo Fedorov, then-defense minister, all eight interceptor makers reported the same thing: "everything's ready, the solution exists, it flies, we tested it, speed is sufficient," Flash recalled.

The mistake, he said, was that no one checked on them week to week. There were also too few jet Gerans in the skies then to test against.

"On the range, they showed: it flies. That was the problem," explained Flash.

Speed is the easy part

The engines are not the obstacle, Flash continues, since they can be bought abroad, and neither is a plane that flies fast in a straight line. The hard part is a machine agile enough to chase a jet-powered Geran, which is far more maneuverable than the propeller kind and will start changing altitude and throwing evasive maneuvers once interceptors appear.

Because an operator's aim frays at such speeds, he said, the decisive pieces are automatic target capture by machine vision and automatic terminal guidance.

"Building a construction that just flies fast is the easiest part," he added.

Mass orders must wait

That is why Ukraine cannot simply order thousands to blanket the country, Flash said: it first needs a proven design that works for any crew, from Security Service specialists to territorial defense soldiers, and is simple to launch, operate, and maintain.

Once such a sample exists, he said, scaling up is only a question of money. Meanwhile, the work is moving: a Ukrainian interceptor recently notched its first kills against jet Gerans and is heading toward mass production.

French President Emmanuel Macron said French services received no CIA warning about a possible Russian drone attack from Mediterranean merchant ships, pushing back on an El Mundo report that US intelligence had alerted France, Italy, and Spain, RTL reported.

Macron’s denial comes amid drone attacks and sabotage cases that European governments have linked to Russia. France is preparing stronger defenses against that wider threat, even as Macron says its services received no specific CIA warning. Italy’s defense minister has also cautioned against fueling alarm over an unconfirmed report.

Asked about the report during a televised interview on 24 September, Macron said: “The CIA did not inform French services of such an attack.” He said Russia was multiplying hostile and sometimes criminal acts against European countries. Covert acts such as sabotage and cyberattacks are often described as hybrid warfare. Asked whether France itself could be attacked, Macron answered yes.

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto separately wrote on X that El Mundo’s alert “finds no confirmation.” He said it served no one to add “more fuel to the fire” at an already tense time.

The Spanish newspaper reported that the possible operation would use Gerbera drones, small Russian aircraft capable of carrying several kilograms of explosives. The drones would be hidden in shipping containers aboard merchant ships and launched toward targets along Europe’s southern coast. El Mundo cited a source close to Lithuania’s Defense Ministry, and analysts familiar with a CIA report said to have circulated among European foreign ministries. Euromaidan Press covered the account on 24 September. Bythe time of publication, neither Spain’s government nor the CIA had publicly addressed it.

Macron pointed to the failed attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany in August. A drone carrying explosives was found near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft. German officials attributed the attempt to Russia. Macron said France had not experienced a comparable incident.

The wider hybrid warfare threat

Beyond the disputed Mediterranean alert, authorities have investigated other incidents throughout Europe as possible Russian sabotage.

Germany followed its accusation over Leipzig with diplomatic measures against Moscow. Berlin ordered Russia’s last consulate in Germany closed and ended an agreement permitting a Russian cultural center. German investigators also identified two suspects, including a Russian man they linked to military intelligence. Moscow denied involvement.

Poland’s justice and interior ministers said Russian intelligence ordered the May 2024 arson of Warsaw’s Marywilska 44 shopping center.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Russia would continue such attacks to frighten Ukraine’s allies into reducing support. He urged vigilance without overreacting, saying Finnish intelligence saw no imminent military threat.

Ukrainian drone makers are getting another shot at a Pentagon contract, this time for bomber drones. Seventeen companies, including Ukrainian firms and Western partners fielding Ukrainian designs, will test bomber drones at Camp Grayling in Michigan in October, the next stage of the Pentagon's Drone Dominance program, Defender Media reported.

The Phase 2.5 Bomber Qualifier is the latest round of the Pentagon's drive to buy combat-tested drones at scale, and Ukrainian makers are again in the field, some through US-registered partners, because Pentagon rules bar direct sales from foreign firms.

This time, the target is bombers, the drones that drop munitions on what is below them.

Seventeen makers head to Michigan

The contest runs at Camp Grayling, a Michigan training range, and organizers call it the hardest and fastest-paced stage of the program yet. Each company must bring at least six fully built systems.

The testing splits into two parts: a Bomber Qualifier, which the makers conduct themselves, and a Bomber Gauntlet run by US soldiers. Organizers have not published details of a third mission. Winners of the wider program earn Pentagon supply contracts.

Ukrainian bombers make the list

The invited firms include UFORCE USA Services, Grim Tech, Gurzuf Defence, UA Defense Tech, Skycutter, and UDD Tech Corp. Which models they will bring is not yet clear.

UFORCE is known for its Nemesis bombers. Grim Tech showed a light bomber, the Grim-18, at the MSPO defense expo in Poland this month, and Gurzuf builds heavy bombers, including the Ayudag-6, which recently set a Ukrainian payload record for multirotor drones at 130 kilograms.

A second try after a US sweep

In the program's last phase, the Pentagon picked five winners in each of two categories, and all were American, though a Ukrainian firm had reached the second round and, by industry accounts, Ukrainian designs were incorporated into some Western entries. For Ukraine's makers, the bomber round is another chance to turn battlefield-proven hardware into a US contract.

France delivered additional MICA air-to-air missiles and 30mm cannon ammunition for Ukraine's Mirage 2000 fighter jets, Militarnyi reported, citing France's Armed Forces Ministry.

Delivering an aircraft is one step, keeping it armed is another. France's weapons resupply reflects a shift from one-off hardware transfers to sustained combat support as Russia's aerial campaign against Ukrainian cities grinds on.

What MICA does

The MICA, developed by MBDA, comes in two versions: radar-guided (MICA RF) and infrared (MICA IR). It weighs about 112 kg, flies at Mach 4.9—nearly five times the speed of sound—and can engage targets 60 to 80 km away.

Ukraine's Mirages have also carried older Magic 2 missiles limited to roughly 20 km. MICAs were reportedly included with the original donation, but the supply may have been limited, which would explain why the Magic 2s stayed in use. MICA triples to quadruples that engagement window, letting pilots intercept cruise missiles far earlier in their flight path. The fresh delivery keeps Ukraine's small fleet supplied with the missiles that make these longer-range interceptions possible.

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Cheap shells for cheap drones

The 30mm ammunition feeds the Mirage's two built-in DEFA 554 cannons, which fire at a selectable rate of 1,200 or 1,800 rounds per minute. A pilot who uses the gun on a Shahed drone saves a MICA for a target that actually needs one.

Ukraine's F-16 operations follow a similar logic: pilots use their 20mm Vulcan cannons alongside AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles, though Zelenskyy called the missile option expensive—used when nothing else can reach a jet drone, because "a human life is more important."

A Ukrainian Mirage 2000 shot down a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile during its very first combat mission, on 7 March 2025. France has delivered about a dozen modified Mirage 2000-5F jets since February 2025, and the fleet is still growing.

Several recent incidents across Europe were conducted by Russia or are likely attributable to Russia, ISW assessed in its 24 September report, though authorities have not officially linked the Polish and German incidents to Moscow.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has expanded into a parallel campaign of provocations against European defense and logistical infrastructure. The Kremlin is using drones, arson, and undersea cable sabotage to degrade Europe's will and ability to support Ukraine, while deliberately intensifying the frequency of airspace violations to erode the boundary between hybrid and kinetic war.

Drones over Moldova and Romania

Four Russian drones flew over Bukovyna and targeted an energy facility and border crossings with Moldova and Romania, Chernivtsi Oblast Military Administration head Ruslan Osypenko reported. Ukrainian forces shot down three. The fourth flew toward Suceava County in northeastern Romania.

A drone crashed in Cernița, Florești district, Moldova—preliminarily identified as a Russian Gerbera type, the first such device found in the country. It carried an onboard camera, hit a tree, and exploded, Moldovan police said. Romania's Defense Ministry reported a second aerial vehicle entered Romanian airspace for four minutes and crashed near Solca in the same border region; geolocated footage confirmed it was also a Gerbera, ISW noted. Poland evacuated the Hrubieszów and Dorohusk border crossings for 30 minutes, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. Three countries were put on alert by a single night of Russian strikes.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

Sabotage in Poland and Germany

A fire engulfed the power system and backup generator at a Starlink ground station in Wola Krobowska, central Poland, on the evening of 23 September. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski confirmed it was sabotage aimed at cutting internet access, including for Ukraine's military. Authorities have not identified who was responsible, but the act aligns with Russia's "new" doctrine of attacks, Gawkowski said. The station is now operating normally.

German authorities suspended operations at Berlin-Brandenburg airport for 45 minutes the same evening after staff reported a drone sighting, Die Zeit reported. Federal police could not confirm it. ISW assessed both incidents fit Russia's wider pattern of sabotage against European defense assets, though neither has been officially attributed to Russia.

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Western intelligence warnings

A Lithuanian Defense Ministry source reported on 23 September that Russia could launch Gerbera drones from a shipping container in the Mediterranean against Spain, France, and Italy. Danish Defense Intelligence assessed on 24 September that Russia will intensify its hybrid war in coming months, including destructive cyber attacks and sabotage carrying a high risk of casualties, and that there is a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military attack on a NATO border state. It sees no indications of an outright invasion. The CIA reportedly warned Poland that Russia may sabotage underwater cables to disrupt its banking system, according to Newsweek Polska journalists.

NATO tracked and confronted Russian submersibles rehearsing deployment of a new cable-disabling weapon near Svalbard in spring 2026—no cables were damaged, but the operation demonstrated Moscow's intent, Reuters reported. Shadow fleet vessels likely served as drone-launch platforms for incursions into NATO airspace, ISW noted.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

ISW said it has not yet seen evidence that Russia has conducted the attacks the warnings describe.

Denmark's assessment—that a limited Russian military strike on a NATO border state could come in the coming months—suggests the boundary between hybrid provocations and military action is narrower than European policy has assumed. ISW's synthesis reframes what governments have treated as separate incidents into one campaign.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

Moldova’s Defense Ministry reported four drone incursions, Romania’s Defense Ministry confirmed a drone crash, and Poland’s Operational Command scrambled fighters twice during Russia’s 24 September attack on Ukraine.

The strike wave forced Moldova to close part of its airspace, Romania to warn residents and launch F-16 fighter jets, and Poland to activate aircraft, air defenses, and radar. No casualties were reported in the two confirmed crashes, and Poland detected no incursion during its first deployment. Moldova has recorded dozens of Russian drone incursions this year.

The drones approached from Ukraine’s Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Chernivtsi oblasts, according to Moldova’s Defense Ministry. Authorities temporarily closed part of the country’s northern airspace.

Near Cernița in northern Moldova, one drone struck a tree, fell into a field beside a farm, and exploded, police said. No casualties were reported.

Investigators preliminarily identified the camera-equipped wreckage as a Gerbera, a low-cost Russian drone often used during attacks on Ukraine. Police said it was the first device of that type found in Moldova.

Police also reported a resident’s account of another explosion near Vadul Rașcov, but said they were still investigating the location.

Romanian radar first tracked an aerial target over Ukraine near the border before it entered northern Romania, the Defense Ministry said. Romania launched two F-16s and sent emergency alerts to residents’ phones in the area. The drone remained in Romanian airspace for about four minutes before crashing near Solca, the ministry said. Officials reported no casualties or damage and had not identified the drone’s origin.

Poland’s Operational Command launched fighters twice in response to Russian strikes on western Ukraine. The first Polish deployment ended around 08:00 with no airspace violation detected; the command announced a second at 09:07. It also activated ground-based air defenses and radar.

The incursions came amid a wider assault. Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia launched 282 drones of various types, along with ballistic and other missiles, overnight into 24 September. Ukrainian officials reported detecting four drones over Chernivtsi Oblast, the Ukrainian region bordering Moldova and Romania, and shooting down three.

Moldova’s repeated airspace breaches

The latest incident followed several breaches in August. An unidentified drone exploded near Crocmaz on 9 August. Another object exploded near Talmaza on 17 August after Moldova briefly closed part of its airspace.

President Maia Sandu said Russian drones had entered Moldovan airspace 39 times in 2026, compared with 17 times throughout 2025. Moldova has portable air-defense weapons and electronic warfare equipment, but Sandu said these chiefly protect individual sites. Her government is working with partners to expand air-defense coverage and speed up threat warnings.

US intelligence has warned Spain, France, and Italy that Russia may be preparing to launch drones at one of them from merchant ships in the Mediterranean, El Mundo reported on 23 September, citing sources familiar with the alert. Neither the CIA nor the three governments have confirmed it.

Russia has intensified a campaign of sabotage, airspace incursions, and other provocations against European states supporting Ukraine while keeping its actions below the threshold of open conflict with NATO. A maritime drone attack would extend that campaign into southern Europe, turning the Mediterranean into a launch zone for deniable strikes on civilian or military infrastructure.

El Mundo based its account on a source close to Lithuania's Defense Ministry and analysts familiar with a CIA report circulated among European foreign ministries. The reported plan would hide small Russian Gerbera drones inside shipping containers aboard merchant ships and launch them from the Mediterranean.

According to El Mundo, a Gerbera drone can travel up to 600 kilometers depending on payload and wind, potentially putting targets along NATO's southern coast within reach of a ship offshore.

The Gerbera drone's reported 4–5 kilogram explosive payload would be unlikely to destroy a large facility, the newspaper said, but could start a fire, damage exposed equipment, or temporarily close an airport or port.

All three countries hold elections in 2027 and have political forces capable of exploiting fear and fatigue with Ukraine, with connections to Kremlin interests especially visible in France and Italy, El Mundo reported. Keir Giles, a British defense analyst, said frontline states are not necessarily the targets—the target will be wherever Europe's weakest point is, naming the UK and Spain as countries that have not invested in air and missile defense adequate to the Russian threat.

El Mundo placed the warning alongside earlier Russian drone incidents on NATO territory. In September 2025, 19 unarmed drones strayed into Polish airspace. German authorities later attributed an explosive-carrying drone incident at Leipzig airport to Russia.

The war has reached Mediterranean shipping

Russia's oil shipments and naval presence, alongside reported Ukrainian operations, have brought the conflict into the region in several ways.

A source cited by Ukrainian media said Ukraine's Security Service struck a Russian shadow-fleet tanker there in December 2025. Such vessels carry Russian oil outside Western sanctions, making the sea a route for Moscow's war revenue and a target for Kyiv.

The French outlet RFI later reported that Ukraine may have established a drone launch site in Libya for strikes on Russian shipping. Kyiv has not confirmed the reported site.

Russia's military position in the region has also shifted. British intelligence assessed in January 2025 that its Mediterranean naval force lacked access to its Syrian base at Tartus after Bashar al-Assad's fall.

A year ago, 12 Ukrainian brigades could order their own weapons off a state marketplace. Now, more than 500 units can. DOT-Chain Defense, which lets frontline units order necessary supplies using state funds or bonuses with just a few clicks, has scaled across most of Ukraine's Defense Forces, the Defense Ministry said.

The platform is the delivery backbone of Ukraine's soldier-led procurement revolution. It lies in a shift in the philosophy of defense procurement. Ukraine is abandoning the Soviet principle of "fight with whatever is handed down from above" and transitioning to a market-based model that centers on the choice of the individual soldier.

Over its first year, it has put more than 1.3 million drones and other systems into units' hands, worth about $1.9 billion, and the orders show what this war runs on: 84 percent are drones, with electronic-warfare gear and ground robots making up most of the rest. It is also the engine behind the points-for-kills system that lets units bank credit for battlefield results and spend it on their own equipment.

Access jumps from 12 to 500 units

The growth has been steep. DOT-Chain Defense is now used by combat units across the armed forces, the National Guard, the border and special transport services, the police, the Security Service, and Defense Intelligence, says Deputy Defense Minister Mstyslav Banik.

Assault regiments and the "Drone Line" project have joined, ordering unmanned systems to their own specifications.

Drones dominate the orders

By the ministry's count, electronic-warfare systems make up 8.6 percent of everything ordered, ground robotic complexes 7.2 percent, and ammunition a sliver at 0.2 percent.

The gear, worth about $1.9 billion, came both through direct marketplace purchases and through the "Army of Drones. Bonus" program, the points system tied to the same platform.

The US copies the model

The approach has drawn imitators. The US has launched its own Amazon-style marketplace for military drones, explicitly modeled on Ukraine's Brave1 Market and DOT-Chain Defense. For Ukraine, the payoff is data: a running record of which weapons work on which part of the front, which the state uses to scale up what performs.

A Ukrainian company has disclosed a small aircraft that can bomb a target, relay radio signals, carry FPV drones behind enemy lines, or strike on its own. The KARA, a fixed-wing drone made by Ukrskytechnology, is listed on Ukraine's state Brave1 Market in three tiers, from a bare airframe to a ready-to-fly aircraft, Defender Media reported.

One airframe does the work of several, and it goes for some $9,900. The marketplace it sits on, Brave1 Market, has processed more than $235 million in orders, lists over a thousand products, and lets frontline units buy gear even before a weapon clears formal codification.

One airframe does four jobs

What the KARA does depends on how it is kitted out. Fitted one way, it drops cargo; another, it works as a signal repeater to extend a unit's radio reach; another, it ferries FPV drones deep into the enemy rear to be released; and another, it carries out strikes itself. Buyers choose among an empty glider they equip themselves, a Plug-N-Play version with basic electronics installed, and a Ready-To-Fly model.

The drone flies light and far

The specifications are modest but flexible, according to Ukrskytechnology. The KARA has a tactical radius of 70 kilometers, and a stated endurance of 2.5 hours, cruises at 90 kilometers per hour and tops out at 120, and works at 200 meters but can climb to 3,000.

It runs on either an electric motor or a combustion engine, and carries two payload blocks of up to three kilograms each under the wing. Launched by catapult and landing like a plane, it takes 10 minutes to set up.

The marketplace lists it now

The KARA is being prepared for codification, the formal approval that clears a weapon for standard state procurement, but it does not have to wait for that to reach the front. Brave1 Market was built precisely so that units can buy proven kit fast, without waiting on the slow pipelines of the past, and the KARA is already there for the price of a used car.

TAF Industries signed a joint-venture memorandum with Danish firm Upteko for production but says bureaucracy is slowing the process. Meanwhile, Resist.UA agreed to invest in BlueShadow, a Danish maritime-defense startup whose founder commanded a US nuclear submarine and whose engineering team works largely in Ukraine, Defender Media reported.

Ukraine's defense industry has outgrown much of its own 2022-era hardware in two years of rapid wartime iteration, but a government fee of 20-30% on export permits and over 200 stalled co-production bids have left the country's foreign arms sales far behind battlefield demand. Deals like the two in Denmark route Ukrainian technology into allied markets without waiting for Kyiv's export apparatus to catch up.

Ukrainian first-person-view drones, made on Danish soil

Drone maker TAF Industries plans to produce its first batch in Denmark by the end of 2026, through a joint venture with local firm Upteko. The two signed a memorandum in August 2026, but paperwork on both sides has slowed things down.

"We need to pass a fairly large number of bureaucratic procedures to make it possible," chief business development officer Mykhailo Diachenko told NordicDefenceWatch.

He called the year-end target reachable, "though maybe it will look more like a miracle."

TAF wants footholds in other countries that support Ukraine. It has started the process in Norway and is negotiating with Sweden's Recas. Diachenko said the goal is local production plus sharing Ukrainian combat experience and technology with European partners. TAF builds FPV drones, with capacity near 1 million units a year.

A Ukrainian fund bets on Odesa's sea defense

Ukrainian fund Resist.UA signed a letter of intent to invest an undisclosed sum in Danish maritime-defense startup BlueShadow's €2 million ($2.29 million) pre-seed round, the company announced. BlueShadow's software collects data from maritime sensors, commercial feeds, and open sources, merges them into a single operational picture, and uses AI to detect threats, Defender Media reported.

The company has also built an open software platform it says can help intercept Shahed-type drones. BlueSentry, designed to protect ports, offshore wind farms, undersea cables, and maritime borders from hybrid attack, is one product that the company plans to launch in the Baltic and North seas in October. BlueDragon, now in prototype testing with Defense Ministry certification targeted for late 2026 and deployment planned for spring 2027, is designed to defend Odesa with autonomous swarms of armed sea drones meant to shoot down Russian attack drones.

Founder Charles Maher is a former US Navy submarine commander who ran a nuclear-powered boat, Defender Media reported. Almost his entire engineering team works in Ukraine, drawing on more than 15 Ukrainian suppliers. Resist.UA this summer launched Resist 2.0, an Estonia-based fund aiming to raise €50 million for Ukrainian defense-tech companies.

Four foreign volunteers serving in the Babai rifle battalion are training to operate FPV drones in Ternopil Oblast in western Ukraine, where they have formed a dedicated drone team, Suspilne reported on 22 September.

Ukraine's military increasingly looks to unmanned systems for roles traditionally carried out by soldiers. In May, an adviser to the commander of Ukraine's Third Army Corps said the corps planned to replace roughly 30% of its infantry with ground robotic systems by the end of 2026 "to save the lives of our soldiers." The plan concerns ground robots rather than FPV aircraft, but reflects the broader move toward using unmanned systems on the battlefield.

From mortars to FPV drones

The team was assembled by Harry, a British volunteer who has fought in Ukraine since arriving in March 2022. He served as a machine gunner in Kharkiv and during the Kharkiv counter-offensive, as well as in Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia.

Before coming to Ukraine, Harry served with People's Defense forces against ISIS in Syria. He said Ukraine's battlefield is fundamentally different, with drones and artillery making combat more dangerous.

For Fuzzy, a former British Army infantryman and counterterrorism specialist, the transition came after more than two years as a mortar operator. He arrived in April 2022 and initially trained Ukrainian defenders before moving into combat roles.

Fuzzy said he had initially been reluctant to switch from mortars to FPVs but found the drones not as difficult to operate as he had expected after training for more than two months.

Not everyone on the team flies. Rupert, who served in the British and Israeli armies, called Ukraine the clearest case of right against wrong since 1939 and said anyone who does nothing will regret it. His role on the team is technical: setting up antennas and checking drones before flights. "The younger guys can fly," he said.

Mac, an American with no previous military service, joined the war in a different role. He arrived in February 2025 and served with the Azov brigade as a logistics specialist in Donbas. Ukraine first appeared on his radar with the 2014 Maidan protests, he said, and when Russia's full-scale invasion began—"seeing the massacre in Bucha, the maternity hospital blown up in Mariupol"—he called it a higher calling and began preparing to come.

Adapting to the battlefield

The volunteers came to Ukraine with different backgrounds and have taken different roles during the war. Harry assembled the FPV team from fighters he had served with in different Ukrainian units. Fuzzy said the changing nature of the war made the transition necessary.

"The war has changed so much that what I was teaching could no longer be applied everywhere," Fuzzy added. "At this stage of the war, we have to keep pace with the times—everything is improving now."

Harry said his long-term goal is to live permanently in Ukraine and open a business. "I see Ukraine as my home," he said. "I want to defend not just the Ukrainian people but also the place where I want to live the rest of my life."

Ukraine's forces have shot down more than 350,000 Russian drones since the start of the year. The count, some 220,000 fixed-wing drones, 100,000 quadcopters, and 31,000 long-range Gerans, was filmed hit by hit in the DELTA combat system and verified by the Brave1 defense-innovation cluster, the Defense Ministry said.

Meanwhile, Russia is now threatening NATO countries directly, its drones probing Polish and Baltic skies, and those countries manage to down only a small fraction of what crosses their borders. In one incursion, Poland shot down just four of about 19 Russian drones.

Ukraine's 350,000 is the record of a force that has had to master drone defense at an industrial scale, night after night.

The tally runs to hundreds of thousands

Most of the kills belong to the Defense Forces' unmanned-systems units, which downed more than 320,000 Russian fixed-wing and copter drones. Those units, together with mobile fire groups and army aviation, also brought down faster Geran-type attack drones.

The pace has been relentless: in August alone, Ukraine destroyed some 35,000 fixed-wing drones and nearly 24,000 copters, the ministry said.

DELTA verifies every hit

Every downing is logged and confirmed in DELTA, the digital system Ukraine uses to run the battlefield, and which the ministry calls a key to its edge over Russia. Filming and verifying each kill lets commanders study how it was done and scale up whatever works.

The purpose is concrete: knocking down fixed-wing drones blinds Russian reconnaissance, and blunts strikes on cities and critical infrastructure, while downing copters keeps Russia from finding and hitting front-line positions. Each drone stopped, the ministry says, is potentially the life of a Ukrainian soldier or civilian saved.

The same threat now shadows NATO

That threat is spreading. Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Poland's parliament that intelligence points to Russian plans for drone and missile strikes on countries backing Ukraine.

The allies being warned are the ones that have struggled to stop even a handful of drones, while Ukraine, out of necessity, has learned to bring them down by the hundred thousand.

Ukrainian drones struck Rosneft's Kuibyshev refinery in Samara overnight on 22 September, hitting two primary crude-processing units and triggering a large fire, Ukrainian drone and missile maker Fire Point confirmed. The strike is part of Ukraine's ongoing campaign against the fuel infrastructure that sustains Russia's war—the same plant had to halt crude processing after a drone attack in June. The attack came one day after US President Donald Trump for the second time in a week urged Ukraine's leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to stop the refinery campaign.

FP-1 drones hit both primary processing units

Fire Point said its FP-1 drones struck the Kuibyshev refinery, hitting the AVT-4 and AVT-5 atmospheric-vacuum distillation units—the plant's primary crude-processing installations. A large fire broke out on the refinery grounds. The Kuibyshev refinery is part of Rosneft and has a designed processing capacity of about 7 million tons of crude oil per year. It is located more than 900 km from the war zone in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ began reporting explosions and air defense activity in Samara Oblast at 3:50 a.m. By 4:24 a.m., the channel posted videos showing a night fire at the refinery. OSINT channel World Militaries identified the AVT-5 unit as the initial fire site.

Russian news Telegram channel Astra separately confirmed the fire at the Kuibyshev refinery.

By morning, the fire was still burning. The smoke plume stretched about 100 km across Samara Oblast, Exilenova+ reported.

The Kuibyshev refinery stopped processing crude in June 2026 after Ukrainian drones hit its AVT-4 and AVT-5 units—the same pair now struck again. Each unit processes about 10,000 tons of crude per day, or roughly 73,000 barrels. The refinery had also suspended operations after a drone attack in August 2025.

Other targets in the overnight wave

Exilenova+ also reported that Ukrainian forces struck a military base in the city of Pochep in Bryansk Oblast overnight, with fire observed at the site. Residents of Tolyatti in Samara Oblast reported explosions, and witnesses suggested the Tolyattikauchuk synthetic rubber plant had been hit, Suspilne reported.

Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev confirmed the attack, claiming Russian air defenses intercepted "dozens of drones." He said drones "targeted industrial enterprises" but did not name which ones. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed 297 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over 14 oblasts and occupied Crimea.

Part of an ongoing campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure

Ukraine's General Staff confirmed strikes on both the Bashneft-UNPZ refinery in Ufa and the Kuibyshev refinery in Samara, with fire observed at both sites. Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries continuously for months—hitting targets in Saratov and Volgograd on 11 September, Slavyansk-na-Kubani on 14 September, Syzran on 15 September, Yaroslavl on 17 September, and Ufa on 21 September, the night before the Kuibyshev strike. Earlier, the General Staff said the campaign has disabled 45% of Russia's oil-refining capacity. The strikes have also pushed Russia's fuel crisis into Central Asia, where shortages forced Kazakhstan to seek emergency supplies.

Trump urged Zelenskyy to stop the campaign for the second time in a week during their 21 September call, telling him "don't hit diesel fuel" and blaming Ukrainian strikes—not the Iran conflict—for rising US diesel prices.

Russia's Africa Corps deployed a Russian-made kamikaze drone against al-Qaeda-linked insurgents in central Mali before losing the aircraft, Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi reported. A local monitoring account says fighters brought it down as the mercenaries pulled back from the Dioura area after more than a week under siege.

Moscow's mercenary arm in Africa answers to the same Defense Ministry that runs its war on Ukraine, and its military supply line into Africa keeps expanding. This lands now because Ukrainian drone crews are helping the forces fighting Russia there, so tactics both sides honed in Ukraine are now surfacing in the Sahel.

A Russian war drone over the Sahel

The monitoring account Alerte Sahel reported that Africa Corps troops, encircled in their camp for over a week, fired the drone at positions of JNIM—the al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims—before breaking out and fleeing. The published video shows a damaged fixed-wing drone with an elongated fuselage and a straight wing. Alerte Sahel first called it an Orlan-10. Militarnyi identified it by its shape as a Molniya. The footage shows the aircraft only after it fell and does not reveal how it went down, so the shootdown claim rests on Alerte Sahel's account—which adds that the jihadists are "increasingly developing skills in mastering attack drones."

The Molniya is a cheap, simple fixed-wing kamikaze drone with a range of about 30-40 km. It carries a warhead of up to 7 kg and also flies reconnaissance and artillery-spotting runs.

Fighting around Dioura

Combat near Dioura, in Mali's Mopti region, has run since 10 September 2026, when JNIM struck Malian army positions. Mali's General Staff said it launched air-ground operations in response. It later reported on 17 September that its units, backed by partners, kept up their operations around the town. On 8 September, JNIM had ambushed an Africa Corps and Malian convoy near the village of Kaka in the same region, killing 13 Russian and Malian troops between them.

Russian authorities left residents in and around Moscow without air raid sirens or phone alerts during Ukraine's largest combined strike on Moscow Oblast, apparently to guard turnout at Russia's parliamentary elections, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said. The silence angered residents and even pro-war commentators as a major oil refinery burned.

For most of this war, Russia has handled strikes on its cities as a routine to be announced, warned about, and waited out. Withholding warnings during the heaviest raid yet, in the middle of a national vote, suggests authorities will trade residents' safety for the look of a calm election when a political milestone is on the line.

Sirens stayed off during the biggest raid

Ukraine hit strategic sites across the Moscow area overnight on 19-20 September, the last day of Russia's State Duma vote. Moscow Oblast officials did not switch on air alert sirens or send the SMS warnings they had used during far smaller attacks. They quietly restricted mobile service without major public notice. Ukraine struck oil and logistics targets, not polling stations, according to the experts, and authorities appeared to place high turnout above protecting civilians.

Moscow Oblast residents complained that no alert reached them, some posting on the Telegram channel of regional Governor Andrei Vorobyov before it closed comments. A prominent Kremlin-linked military blogger attacked the official response, saying it erodes public trust and that cutting mobile service does "not really help."

What the drones hit

Ukraine's General Staff reported striking the Gazpromneft-Moscow Oil Refinery in the city's Kapotnya district, one of Russia's largest plants, causing a large fire. Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point said its FP-1 drones completely shut down the refinery, with all primary processing units damaged.

Governor Andrei Vorobyov claimed air defenses countered 249 drones across 17 municipal districts. The strike was part of Ukraine's widening campaign against the fuel sector funding Russia's war, with about a fifth of Russian refining capacity offline.

Poland will have more than 1,000 automated warning sirens in Lublin Voivodeship by the end of 2026, Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said on 19 September, up from nearly 350 now. The region had about 30 remotely activated sirens at the beginning of 2024.

The expansion comes as Russian attacks on the west of Ukraine are reaching closer to Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Russia is expected to intensify attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure and warned of possible "accidental" drone or missile strikes on NATO countries, including Poland. He also said Russia is introducing jet-powered drones that move much faster and at higher altitudes.

Sirens sound as drones approach the border

A Russian air attack on western Ukraine triggered air-raid warnings in Poland's Lublin and Podkarpackie regions on 17 September. Sirens sounded in Lublin and Rzeszów, while residents received an SMS warning: "ATTENTION! ATTENTION! ATTENTION! Threat of an air attack. Find a safe place. Follow the instructions of the emergency services. Await further announcements."

The Polish military said its aircraft were activated in response to Russian strikes involving jet-powered drones against western Ukraine. A Russian drone flying toward Poland fell on Ukrainian territory about four kilometers from the Polish border, according to Polish authorities. Polish airspace was not violated.

Airports in Lublin and Rzeszów temporarily suspended operations to give military aircraft freedom of movement. Polish authorities said the measures were preventive and intended to protect Polish airspace.

More strikes on the border zone

On 13 September, Russian strikes near the Yahodyn-Dorohusk border crossing damaged a gas station and hit the locomotive of a Kyiv-Warsaw passenger train about two kilometers from the Polish border. No deaths were reported, and the border crossing temporarily halted operations.

On 19 September, Poland again activated ground-based air-defense systems and increased radar reconnaissance in response to another wave of Russian strikes on Ukraine. The operation ended the same day with no violation of Polish airspace recorded.

Shelters, sirens, and a 1939 echo

Beyond sirens, authorities have marked nearly 3,500 official shelter locations in Lublin Voivodeship. More than 500 State Fire Service stations and volunteer fire units took part in special exercises on 19 September to practice responses to warning signals and emergency alerts.

"We are building a civil-protection system virtually from scratch," Kierwiński said at a briefing in Lublin. "We have very, very little time."

The 17 September strikes fell on the anniversary of the Soviet Union's 1939 invasion of Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the Russian attack as "massive, extremely brutal."

The 13 September strikes near the border also drew a response from Kyiv. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described them as Putin's terror "knocking" directly on the doors of the EU and NATO and called for a "full trade embargo, a total entry ban, and complete sanctions against Russia's military-industrial complex."

For the first time, Ukraine has dropped ground robots behind Russian lines from the air. The 3rd Army Corps, behind the mission, says its heavy drones delivered kamikaze unmanned ground vehicles more than 10 kilometers into the Russian rear during the "second season" of Operation Vivaldi, letting Ukrainian troops flank them and clear another 40 square kilometers.

Vivaldi is the counteroffensive the corps is running near Lyman in northern Donetsk. Over its first two "seasons," the 3rd Army Corps and attached units have retaken more than 125 square kilometers, half of it de-occupied outright, and inflicted more than 3,000 casualties on Russian forces.

The operation, run under an information blackout for months, has also disrupted Russia's push and, the Institute for the Study of War found, its plan to encircle the fortified belt of Donetsk cities.

Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi, corps commander, has said the operation, which he named after Vivaldi's Four Seasons, will run through four phases, and only two have been completed. The air-dropped robot is the newest report on how the corps fights.

Machines go first, infantry follows

The corps casts the tactic as a means of expending robots rather than people.

"In assault operations, drones and ground robots always go ahead of the infantry," Biletskyi says.

The 3rd Army Corps was the first in the world to begin air-dropping ground robotic systems. Our heavy bombers deliver kamikaze robots more than 10 kilometers into the Russian rear.

Wars are won by infantry, one of the corps' soldiers added, "but we protect ours, so the robots go to the enemy first."

A dome hides the assault

As the assault groups advanced amid the operation, Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare threw a protective dome over the battle area, blinding Russian drones so they could not read the operation's design.

Meanwhile, artillery and strike drones hit command posts, communications nodes, logistics, crossings, and reserves, letting Ukrainian units dig in on the ground they had taken.

On the Lyman axis, the corps says it freed the villages of Shandryholove and Derylove and took control of Drobysheve, and that Vivaldi has kept Russia from shifting significant forces to the Kupiansk front.

Russia is quietly moving to expand the capacity of the plant behind its long-range attack drones, a step that could sharply raise how many it launches at Ukraine, according to Politico. The plan turns on a single carbon fiber factory in Russia's Tatarstan region and runs to the end of the decade.

These files add something narrower than Russia's known intent to fight on: they identify carbon fiber as a critical material capping how many drones it can build. To break that cap, the Kremlin is funding production lines that will not run until the decade's end—a bet on winning by out-building Ukraine, even as the strikes grind on.

The bottleneck Russia wants to break

Politico obtained internal documents from Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom showing its Alabuga-Volokno plant would add 500 tons of military-grade aerospace carbon fiber a year by 2029. Rosatom declined to comment. Weapons expert David Albright, who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, estimated that volume could yield airframes for about 28,000 more attack drones a year—a 78% jump.

Ukraine already estimates Russia can build more than 36,000 Shahed/Geran kamikaze drones a year. Carbon fiber is the choke point: it keeps the airframes light and strong, and Russia has no cheap substitute.

"Without the carbon fiber, they can't make the drone. Can't substitute for the carbon fiber in the drone and keep its weight down," Albright said.

Moscow is investing in the raw material, not just more assembly halls—the fiber, not floor space, is what caps output.

Ground already cleared in Tatarstan

Documents gathered by the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center describe a new factory on the site designed to produce UMT42S-3K aerospace-grade fiber. Satellite images from May to July show land cleared for construction. Albright's own August imagery shows foundations going in. He said the stated 2027 completion date "requires rapid construction." Russia has spent the past year adding new assembly halls at the same site.

The plant and its parent, Rosatom's Umatex Group, already sit under US, UK, and other Western sanctions. The US House Select Committee on China and the Ukrainian government both verified the documents, officials told Politico.

The push comes as Russia leans harder on jet-powered Shaheds, which Ukraine's Air Force says are hard to down with conventional defenses. Kyiv has fielded its first jet interceptor and tested a new one in September—but the plant is a bid to out-build those defenses faster than Ukraine can scale them.

For years, Ukraine’s air defenses blunted Russia’s attempts to terrorize its cities from the sky. Now, after four years of adaptation, Moscow is fielding faster drones, massing ballistic missiles, and finding new ways to overwhelm a Ukrainian air-defense network running short of the interceptors needed to stop them.

Russia’s aerial campaign is becoming harder to contain just as its attacks are killing more Ukrainian civilians. July recorded at least 437 civilian deaths, the highest monthly toll since the early months of the full-scale invasion, with UN monitors pointing to Russian missile and drone attacks as a key factor.

That shift is visible most clearly in Russia’s rapidly expanding use of jet-powered Geran drones. These drones can exceed 400 km/h, making them significantly harder to intercept than the slower, propeller-driven Shaheds Ukraine has spent years learning to counter. Russia reportedly launched as many as 2,850 jet-powered drones in August alone.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia’s escalation with the new drones is becoming “increasingly terrorist” and called for urgent efforts to develop defenses against them.

While Ukraine’s Western partners have taken steps to strengthen its air defenses, Russia has spent the same period adapting and expanding its ability to attack from the air. The gap is becoming increasingly visible in the skies over Ukrainian cities.

Ukrainian civilians are already paying the price

Russia has increasingly turned its ability to strike deep inside Ukraine into a weapon against civilian life itself: hitting residential areas, fuel stations, railways, energy infrastructure and other sites across cities far from the front.

Since late August, Kyiv has faced near-continuous Russian drone attacks, with Russia increasingly sending waves of drones against the capital throughout the day and night. The shift has made air-raid alerts, explosions and disruptions to daily life a near-constant reality.

For Ukrainians, Russia’s evolving aerial campaign is measured in destroyed homes, injuries, deaths, and lives permanently changed. 

In Kyiv, it has also changed everyday life: explosions interrupt sleep and work, people run for shelter as strikes unfold overhead, and the threat of another attack is never far away.

And the pressure is no longer confined to Kyiv. Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are all facing increasingly sophisticated combinations of drones and missiles.

The danger is not simply that Russia is launching more weapons. It is that Moscow has spent years learning which weapons can penetrate Ukraine’s defenses, how to combine them, and how to force Ukraine to spend its most valuable interceptors.

Zelenskyy’s warning captures the urgency: “You cannot simply wait for Russia to perfect its repertoire of killings.”

Russia is adapting faster than Ukraine can rebuild its shield

The jet-powered Geran is only one part of the problem.

Russia has also dramatically increased its use of ballistic missiles. Reuters reported that 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles were launched in July and the first eight days of August, with more than half being inaccurate RM48U training missiles repurposed for combat. 

Ukraine has virtually exhausted its US-made Patriot interceptors, the only systems in its arsenal capable of reliably intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles, while Moscow continues launching them at a high tempo.

The result is a more complex aerial threat: fast drones that are difficult to intercept, ballistic missiles that are extremely difficult to stop, and large waves of cheaper weapons that can force Ukraine to expend scarce defensive ammunition.

Ukraine is developing new ways to counter them, including interceptor drones specifically designed to hunt down the jet-powered Gerans. But Ukraine is developing these systems as Russia is already deploying its new weapons at scale.

Western countries have continued providing air-defense assistance. Canada, for example, announced a C$350 million package for interceptors earlier this month. But Ukrainian officials continue to say that deliveries remain far below what is needed to protect the country from Russia’s expanding aerial campaign.

Russia has spent years expanding the weapons it can use against Ukraine, while Ukraine and its partners are still racing to develop and supply the systems needed to stop them.

The threat Europe helped Russia develop

Some of Ukraine’s Western partners are now confronting a threat Russia has spent years developing over Ukraine: an increasingly sophisticated aerial arsenal that could eventually be turned against them.

European officials and defense analysts are increasingly warning that NATO countries themselves lack enough air and missile defenses to deal with a large Russian attack. 

Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs recently said Europe is not sufficiently prepared for the kind of drone and aerial warfare Russia has developed in Ukraine, including because of delays in supplying Ukraine with critical air-defense systems.

Those concerns are no longer hypothetical. On 14 September, an Italian NATO fighter jet shot down a Russian-made Geran-2 drone over Lithuania after it entered the country from Belarus. Poland and Romania have also faced Russian drone incursions since 2025.

This creates a problem that is partly of Europe’s own making. Russia has had more than four years to refine its drones, missiles, production lines and tactics while Ukraine’s partners have often been too slow to provide enough weapons to counter those systems as they were developed and deployed at scale.

In that same period, many European countries continued trading with Russia, particularly in fossil fuels, allowing Moscow to keep generating revenue from European markets even as those same governments were providing military aid to Ukraine.

The result is a Russian aerial arsenal that is more capable than the one Ukraine faced in 2022 – while some of the countries now worried about a future Russian threat lack the air defenses needed to protect themselves.

Western governments helped Ukraine fight Russia’s air war, but not at a scale or speed sufficient to prevent Russia from adapting. 

Ukrainian civilians are paying the price for the time Russia was given to expand and refine its aerial warfare. Now, Europe is having to prepare for the possibility that those capabilities could one day be used against it. 

Ukrainian engineers near the front rewrite their drones' software every couple of days. A NATO army needs about six months to push the same update. That gap in speed is the central challenge for the Western trainers working with Ukrainian troops in Poland, who say Ukraine's wartime tempo is exposing how slowly the West moves in peacetime, the Business Insider reports.

Russia's war forces the Ukrainian Army to buy, train, and adapt at a pace peacetime armies are not built for, and its experience is pushing NATO to confront how much its own bureaucracy slows it down.

The alliance has studied that experience without yet fully absorbing it: in an Estonian war game last winter, a ten-person Ukrainian drone team wiped out two NATO battalions in a day.

Now NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is calling for a large-scale transformation of the West's defense industry so its armies can react faster.

Two speeds meet in Poland

The place where those speeds collided was Camp Jomsborg, a base Norway built in an eastern Polish forest in a matter of months. There, under an operation called Legio, trainers from across northern Europe drill Ukrainian soldiers while the Ukrainians hand their front-line lessons back to NATO.

The camp sits, as its operations officer, a major identified only as John, put it,  at "the mental and geographical middle point between war in the east and peacetime mechanism in the West."

A drone update tells the story

Brigadier General Atle Molde, who commands the task force, put the gap in numbers. If a Western drone needs new software, he said, "you have to send it to a Western country or a company, and an update takes six months." 

In Ukraine, "they have the engineers sitting close to the front updating every two days, every two weeks, developing software, adapting it to genuine situations."

Molde said he wants to see greater initiative in innovation within Western armies, but to achieve that, "it has to be some major changes that have to be done on all levels when it comes to legislation."

Ukraine's battle-tested drone makers did not win a single top slot in the Pentagon's latest drone contest. But some Ukrainian technology won anyway, competing quietly under the names of Western partners, The Defender Media reports.

The Pentagon's $1.1 billion Drone Dominance program does not allow direct purchases from Ukrainian firms, which must set up a US legal entity to bid.

The Ukrainians who competed under their own names were hampered by export licenses, the hunt for non-Chinese components, and visa issues, and none of the four cracked the top five in either category.

American firms sweep the top slots

The Pentagon picked five winners each in two categories, long-range strikes out to 15 kilometers and close-in assault. Eric Schmidt's Perennial Autonomy topped the long-range field with its Hornet drone, on 80.1 points, and Neros led the close-in category with 88.1. Neros already supplies Ukraine with 6,000 of its Archer FPV drones.

The rest of the winners, from ORQA's US arm to XTEND and ModalAI, were American as well. All will receive Pentagon supply contracts, with order sizes to be set later.

Ukrainians win under other flags

The Ukrainian firms that announced their entries, F-Drones, General Chereshnya, Grim Tech, and Stellarion, all missed the cut, though General Chereshnya had reached the program's second round earlier in the year.

Bureaucracy tripped the open entrants

Stellarion laid out what went wrong. Getting export permits and moving hardware took so long that integrating American parts, including warheads, and adapting the finished system on schedule became "complicated," its representatives said.

Finding NDAA-compliant, non-Chinese components ate up more time, and visa delays kept its specialists from fixing technical problems on site.

Firms that missed the top five can enter later rounds: a Gauntlet 2.5 contest for bomber drones is set for October, and a third phase begins in February 2027, with missions built to test control of several drones at once.

Poland will provide another aid package to Ukraine, which will include, among other things, “what Ukraine needs right now,” Deputy Minister of National Defense Stanisław Wziątek said, reports Polskie Radio. He said the package would include missiles for F-16 fighter jets, which the Ukrainian military uses to shoot down Russian drones.

Ukraine is critically short of missiles for F-16 fighter jets, which shoot down Russian UAVs. Recently, it was reported that pilots sometimes took off without missiles, using only the aircraft’s built-in M61A1 Vulcan cannon, which is dangerous for civilians. Poland’s newly promised aid will include these missiles for Ukraine.

Among other things, Poland will provide aviation equipment, the report said. Media reports added that the aid package may be worth around €50 million.

Ammunition for F-16s and possible aviation equipment

“Our aid is in the process of being prepared. Everything will happen in a moment. I cannot say what it contains, I can only say that it is what Ukraine needs right now. This includes basic ammunition. These are the ones mounted on F-16s to shoot down Russian drones,” Wziątek said.

AIM-9 and AIM-120 are air-to-air missiles that the Ukrainian Armed Forces use with F-16s to fight Russian aviation, Militarnyi says. The outlet adds that last year Ukrainian F-16s were spotted with APKWS II missiles, which are effective against drones. As for the aforementioned aviation equipment, Poland may provide decommissioned MiG-29 fighter jets or drones, the media outlet suggests.

The MiG-29 does not use the same scarce stocks of AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles.

Missile shortage is not new

In July 2025, America abruptly suspended arms supplies to Ukraine, affecting some types of weapons. Among them were more than 90 US-made AIM air-to-air missiles that were in Poland and on their way to Ukraine, but were withdrawn by the US, according to a Wall Street Journal article. Since then, Ukraine has received Western aid for air defense systems, but missiles have remained among the items in short supply.

Ukraine faced a severe shortage of F-16 missiles from late November to mid-December, according to Reuters. One source said Ukraine had "nothing to put on its jets for almost a month."

While F-16s likely rank first by number in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Soviet-made MiG-29 ranks second, Euromaidan Press. Ukraine had enough R-73 missiles for this fighter, but when the Ukrainian Armed Forces also began using them for ground-based launchers after 9M33 missiles for Soviet Osa air defense systems ran out, the rate of consumption increased sharply.

Ukrainian forces were observed resuming the use of older missiles that had been considered obsolete. There is an alternative: using the fighter’s cannon. However, this practice is dangerous.

A Ukrainian drone maker has revealed it built a strike weapon it kept classified, deputy director Andrii Rymaruk told Radio NV. For two years, Ukrspecsystems, known for manufacturing Ukraine's SHARK reconnaissance drones, hid its connection to the RAM-2X strike drone, even as crews used it to hunt Russia's costly air defenses and missile launchers deep behind the front. By 2025, it had quietly become the Defense Forces' flagship mid-strike drone.

Ukraine's war on Russia's air defenses increasingly runs on drones its own industry builds and fields in secret, revealed only once they have already destroyed the enemy's costliest launchers and radars. Holding one back that long lets its crews rack up strikes before Moscow can study the weapon and build a counter—and this maker went public only once wrecked drones had reached Russian hands.

Why come out now

The RAM-2X first flew in combat in early 2024, but the maker kept its role secret. Rymaruk said the company wanted the drone and its crews to finish the job first—destroy what needed destroying—before talking. Once shot-down units reached the enemy and turned up on social media, silence no longer protected anything. So after two years, Ukrspecsystems unveiled the drone at the MSPO defense expo in Kielce, Poland.

What it kills

This is a mid-strike drone—a loitering munition that flies deep behind the lines, circles, and dives into its target. Its victims include S-400 and S-300 air defenses, the systems Russia uses to shoot down aircraft, and Iskander launchers that fire ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities.

Rymaruk put the RAM-2X's own tally at more than 350 Russian systems destroyed since 2024, while Defender Media, which interviewed him, reported more than 1,000 targets over two years. Ukrspecsystems credits the wider RAM series, which reaches back to a fixed-wing model supplied from late 2022, with more than 450 target engagements, over 400 of them against air defenses. Today, it destroys 50 to 60 pieces of Russian equipment a month.

How far, how many

The drone has grown fast. It flew 140 km in 2024 and now hits targets up to 180 km, almost 230 km in good conditions, and a crew from the 429th Achilles unmanned-systems brigade set a range record at 215.5 km. It has spread from a few crews to about 100 military units and 250 trained teams, and one operator can fly it from anywhere in Ukraine. It also works in pairs with the SHARK-M reconnaissance drone—one finds the target, the other kills it. In July, Ukrainians crowdfunded 30 of the drones for military intelligence and the security service through Serhii Prytula's foundation.

A large-scale police operation is underway after a drone of unknown origin crashed 1 kilometer from a Bundeswehr base, German media outlet Bild reported on 15 September.

Drones have repeatedly flown over German military bases, and German prosecutors are already treating one August find near Ukraine-bound cargo as attempted sabotage. Germany's military counterintelligence has tied repeated sabotage on German soil to Russia, with high probability. Neither the owner nor the origin of this drone is known. Russia has denied involvement in earlier incidents, some of which Germany has officially attributed to it.

Discovery near airbase triggers large-scale search

Parts of the drone were found east of Lake Steinhude, the media outlet said. The crash site is one kilometer from the Bundeswehr's Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony, the German military confirmed to the outlet. The drone crashed in an open, uninhabited area, the state criminal police office said. After the debris was discovered, authorities launched a large-scale search operation in the area to find additional parts of the UAV, according to Bild.

Investigators do not yet know who owns the drone

The search continues, and the state criminal police office says there are so far no indications of a danger to the public. Investigators learned about the discovery on Monday and want to analyze any other drone parts they find to determine its origin, the media outlet reported. Only then could more be said about the circumstances of the crash, it added.

Drones have been spotted over Bundeswehr bases many times

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the number of reports of drone sightings has "increased significantly" and become "more consistent," a spokesperson for the Bundeswehr Operations Command told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) in August.

"Overall, several hundred suspected drone overflights have been reported in the area of the German Armed Forces in recent years," the command spokesperson told RND.

What came before this crash

Germany is the busiest front in Russia's covert campaign in Europe. A Semtex-laden drone turned up beside a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle airport in August, and investigators this month named a Russian intelligence operative and a Belarusian petty criminal. Berlin blamed Moscow and ordered Russia's Bonn consulate closed.

Two Bulgarians were arrested over a September arson at a Munich building site between two defense-tech headquarters, a day after two attempts to sabotage the power grid that Germany has not attributed. Germany suspects a planned assassination of a Bavarian drone maker's boss, watched by agents hired for single jobs.

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Not every strand leads to Moscow. German military counterintelligence this week attributed part of the drone activity over Bundeswehr sites to Chinese intelligence.

Elsewhere the tempo holds: Polish prosecutors have opened more than a hundred espionage cases in 20 months, and in the Netherlands a former commander of US Army forces in Europe said Russian saboteurs attacked the rail network and tried to kill him, which Dutch Railways said they knew nothing about.

Ukraine has authorized 81 private companies to run their own air defense against Russian drones, letting the factories and infrastructure sites that Moscow hits daily shoot back, Ukraine's Defense Ministry says. The firms have been provided "authorized" status under an experimental program, a count that has climbed from 51 in mid-July, according to ArmyInform.

The idea is to let the targets defend themselves. Russian drones strike Ukrainian factories, warehouses, and power sites so relentlessly that the state cannot shield everyone, so the Defense Ministry is enlisting the companies being hit to form their own drone-defense teams.

Ninety-two firms have already applied, among them operators of critical infrastructure and businesses from across the country's industries and regions. The teams are not freelancers: they fold into Ukraine's layered air defense under the command of the Air Force, so they do not fire into a shared sky blind.

The count climbs fast

The program has grown quickly since it began in late 2025, from 24 companies in April to 30 in June, 51 in July, and 81 by mid-September. The units are made of trained, certified civilian staff, some running mobile fire teams with heavy machine guns, others flying interceptor drones.

By June, they had already shot down more than 20 Russian attack and reconnaissance drones, the ministry said, including one jet-powered Geran, the faster variant that has strained Ukraine's defenses.

Russia's drones drive the demand

The Defense Ministry launched the project at the end of 2025 to add a layer of protection for workers and production sites that had become routine targets.

The goal the ministry set for the wider effort is stark: detect every aerial threat and destroy 95 percent of them. The steady climb in members, roughly one company added per day since July, suggests that demand is not slowing.

A Russian drone struck a scheduled passenger minibus in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the morning of 16 September, killing and injuring people on board, the oblast military administration reported. The vehicle was running an intercity route when the drone reached it on the open road. Prosecutors opened a criminal case, and the head of the oblast council called the attack a cynical strike on people going about their day.

Five killed on the Pokrov to Dnipro run

Five people died at the scene, and doctors are treating at least seven injured, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, Oleksandr Handzha, said. Russian forces struck Nikopol district with an FPV drone, damaging a route minibus that was travelling on the highway, the Prosecutor General's Office said.

Mykola Lukashuk, who heads the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Council, wrote that the strike was aimed and cynical.

"Russians cynically struck a passenger bus. Just a minibus in which people were travelling on their own business," he wrote.

The photograph Handzha published shows the windows torn out along one side of the white van, with blood running down the panel below them. In Lukashuk's image of the front end, the destination board behind the cracked windshield reads Pokrov, via Nikopol, to Dnipro, three towns strung along the same road.

The Dnipropetrovsk Oblast prosecutor's office opened proceedings under Article 438 of Ukraine's Criminal Code, which covers violations of the laws and customs of war, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

Drones had also attacked the district center and the Marhanets community in the same region, damaging an apartment building without hurting anyone, the administration said.

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Buses on these roads have been hit all year

Nikopol district lies on the Dnipro River directly across from Russian-occupied territory, which puts its roads inside the range of short-range drones. A drone hit a city bus in central Nikopol in April, killing four people and injuring 17, after which the mayor cut services and ran the rest off the fixed schedule. In June, a drone struck a minibus in Nikopol, killing two people and injuring 12, among them two 12-year-old girls, and in August a drone burned out another route minibus elsewhere in the district, injuring at least seven passengers.

The pattern runs past this district. A drone hit a bus near Dnipro in May, injuring six people including a child and a pregnant woman, and war analysts have assessed that Russian forces use harm to civilians as an instrument of the war in southern Ukraine rather than as its by-product. 

An FPV drone, short for first-person view, sends a live video feed back to whoever is flying it. The operator watches the target grow in the frame and steers the drone into it. A bus in motion is a target that has to be chosen and followed. FPV models are not the only cheap weapon over these roads: Russia also flies Molniya strike drones, which reach further and are switching to digital video that Ukraine's current detectors cannot pick up.

The Prosecutor General's Office documented more than 11,000 attacks by short-range drones on civilians, medics, rescuers, and police, with criminal cases rising from 2,427 in 2024 to 6,771 in 2025 and another 2,010 opened in the first four months of 2026. 

Ukraine has successfully tested another interceptor designed to counter Russia’s increasingly common jet-powered Geran attack drones, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 15 September.

The test comes as Russia rapidly expands the use of faster jet-powered Gerans, creating a new problem for Ukraine’s air defenses: these drones give defenders less time to detect and engage them while allowing Russia to maintain large-scale attacks. A successful interceptor could give Ukraine a cheaper, scalable way to counter that threat without relying as heavily on scarce high-end air-defense missiles.

Zelenskyy said Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi reported the successful test, during which the new interceptor struck a Russian Geran drone.

The system still reportedly needs further work, including improvements to some aspects of its control. But the successful test marks another step in Ukraine’s effort to develop a new layer of air defenses against Russia’s faster drones.

Russia is making its drone attacks faster and larger

Russia has sharply expanded its use of jet-powered Gerans in recent months, adding a faster and more difficult-to-intercept threat to its large-scale drone campaign.

Geran is Russia’s designation for its domestically produced Shahed-derived attack drones, with newer jet-powered variants representing a major upgrade over the earlier propeller-driven models.

Zelenskyy recently said Russia launched around 2,100 drones against Ukraine last week, alongside nearly 1,700 guided aerial bombs and 78 missiles. The attacks have increasingly targeted energy facilities, railway infrastructure, businesses, and residential areas.

The newer Gerans are faster than earlier Shahed-derived drones and can reach targets deep inside Ukraine. Their speed gives Ukrainian air defenses less time to detect, track, and engage them.

Russia has also changed how it uses its drones. Rather than concentrating attacks almost exclusively overnight, Russian forces have increasingly launched waves during the day as well, keeping Ukrainian cities under repeated air-raid alerts.

The result is a growing challenge not only of interception, but of scale. Ukraine must defend a large territory against increasingly large drone barrages while preserving more sophisticated air-defense missiles for ballistic missiles and other threats.

Ukraine is building a new layer of air defense

Ukraine has already been racing to develop such systems. In late August, Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara said four potential interceptor systems capable of shooting down jet-powered Gerans had undergone field testing. Ukraine was aiming to bring them to the required level and eventually produce thousands of units.

Today’s announcement shows that effort continues to produce concrete results.

Ukraine is also expanding other parts of its counter-drone network. Zelenskyy said the country is increasing purchases of electronic warfare equipment and reorganizing mobile fire groups and air-defense positions.

The goal is to build enough layers to cope with Russia’s evolving drone campaign: electronic warfare, mobile fire teams, traditional air defenses, and increasingly specialized interceptors.

Russia is making its drones faster and launching them at greater scale. Ukraine’s response is now moving beyond adapting existing defenses toward developing weapons specifically designed to catch them.

Falling Russian drone debris started 17 forest fires in Chernihiv Oblast between 7 and 13 September, burning 10.8 hectares, Ukraine's state forestry enterprise Forests of Ukraine said.

Russia's drone campaign is causing damage beyond its immediate targets, as falling debris can start fires in forests and other open areas. Forest fires linked to military activity have become a recurring problem across Ukraine. The previous week, 56 forest fires covering 84 hectares were recorded nationwide, with 95% attributed to hostilities, according to the state forestry enterprise.

Drone wreckage also started fires in eight other oblasts during the same period. Kherson Oblast recorded 3.7 hectares burned, Odesa 2 hectares, and Sumy 1.91 hectares. Smaller areas were affected in Zaporizhzhia (0.7 hectares), Dnipropetrovsk (0.5 hectares), Kyiv and Zhytomyr (0.12 hectares each), and Mykolaiv (0.1 hectares), according to Forests of Ukraine.

Russia kept up the daily barrages all week. Between 7 and 13 September, it launched more than 2,000 strike drones at Ukraine, by the Air Force's daily counts, and air defense downed or suppressed about 1,800 of them. The heaviest came on the night of 13 September, when 453 drones and S8000 Banderol munitions flew in from six directions and 405 drones and four Banderols were brought down. Twice that week, Russia also attacked in daylight, sending 410 drones on 12 September and 323 on 13 September between 06:30 and 18:00.

About 165,000 hectares of Ukrainian forest have burned since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with most of the damage linked to fires caused by shelling and combat.

In total, 46 forest fires covering 25.7 hectares were recorded across the enterprise's territory that week, with about 72% linked to military activity, according to Forests of Ukraine.

The wider environmental toll

The fires are part of a wider environmental toll from Russia's war. The Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War, working with the NGO Ecodiya and Ukraine's environment ministry, put emissions from war-driven landscape fires over the first four years at 70 million tons of CO2 equivalent, in an assessment reported by the Ukraine War Environmental Consequences Work Group.

The same review recorded 2,643 environmental incidents monitored by Ecodiya, with 2025 accounting for 931 of them.

Russian drones killed one man and injured eight people in Kyiv on the morning of 15 September, hitting two gas stations along with warehouses, a restaurant, and an office building, the National Police reported. The strikes came in a night-long wave of 200 drones that also hit Odesa Oblast in southern Ukraine. 

What Russia hit in Kyiv

The first drone came down at a gas station in the Darnytskyi district shortly after 06:00, and more drones hit warehouses in the Obolonskyi district around the same time, the Kyiv Military Administration said. The strike critically wounded a man who was standing near the Darnytskyi station.

The attack resumed after 08:00. A drone struck a non-residential building in the Solomianskyi district, then a second gas station in the Holosiivskyi district, where heavy smoke rose over the site. Mayor Vitalii Klitschko reported the number of injured climbing through the morning, from two to four to eight, with two of them in serious condition. Emergency services put six of the eight in the Solomianskyi district, which took a second hit around 10:00.

The man hurt at the Darnytskyi station died in hospital at about 10:35. Beyond the two stations, police recorded damage to warehouses, a fast-food restaurant, and a business center.

The wave that carried them

Russia launched 200 strike drones from 18:00 on 14 September, the Air Force said: Shahed types including jet-powered ones, Gerberas, and Parodiya decoys, flown from Russia and occupied areas. Air defense downed or suppressed 187 of them by 08:00, with hits recorded at seven locations and debris falling at three more. The attack was still running when that count was published.

Russian drones killed a man and injured eight in Kyiv, hitting two gas stations

Russian forces hit Odesa Oblast at the same time. Russian forces struck residential buildings, logistics sites, and port and transport infrastructure, oblast head Oleh Kiper said, damaging roofs, facades, and windows of private houses along with dozens of garages and cars.

The same night, NATO fighters shot down a drone over Lithuania that had crossed from Belarus, and Ukrainian forces struck the Syzran refinery in Samara Oblast and a warehouse in Taganrog.

Why gas stations

Kyiv's filling stations have been under systematic attack since 10 September, when a drone came down at a station near a shopping mall. On 11 September, jet drones hit two Ukrnafta complexes on opposite banks of the city and returned to strike one of them a second time.

Unlike filling stations in the border oblasts, which Russia hits with cheap short-range drones, the Kyiv stations are being struck with its most expensive ones. Ukrainian stations are mostly struck with the Geran-4 Seeker, the variant fitted with machine-vision targeting, according military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko of Information Resistance.

More than 300 gas stations have been attacked across Ukraine since the current wave began, according to energy ministry data. The strikes have moved gradually from front-line oblasts deeper into the country, and about 80% of damaged stations return to work. 

Ukraine's battlefield-tested drone makers and Europe's arms firms have sat down together for the first time to build drones and the systems to shoot drones down as a single industry. Eighteen companies, nine Ukrainian and nine European, held the opening meeting of the EU-Ukraine Drone Alliance in Brussels, Defender Media reported.

The alliance answers a threat both sides now share. Russia is scaling up its own drone production. Its drone war has spilled past Ukraine, with its drones crossing repeatedly into NATO airspace this summer and showing Europe how unready it is for the fighting Ukraine has learned the hard way.

The Alliance will support Ukraine's capabilities it needs on the battlefield, while strengthening Europe's defense readiness for the future.

The alliance sets up shop

The first job is organizational, said Roman Tkachenko, a co-founder of the Ukrainian firm Tencore: form the governing bodies and set the priorities. The 18 members were chosen from about 400 applicants, Kubilius said, and the alliance is designed as a decision-making body, according to UA News.

On the Ukrainian side, it includes Tencore, Athlon Avia, and Vyriy Industry. On the European side, Germany's Quantum Systems, Italy's Fincantieri, and Denmark's Terma.

Kubilius, who opened the session and called it historic, said the first tangible results should come by the end of the year. He named accelerating joint ventures and counter-drone projects as the top tasks.

Europe wants Ukraine's combat edge

Kubilius was blunt about what Europe hopes to learn: how to adapt a product in days, shorten development cycles, and scale a production line from a peacetime trickle to full output within weeks. In return, he said, the EU offers Ukraine cutting-edge technology and continent-wide manufacturing.

The Alliance will bring together companies, start-ups, researchers, armed forces, and other users from EU countries and Ukraine.

The Alliance is a result of the Drone Deal, announced by President Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv on 15 July, according to the EU Commission.

An oil refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban in southern Russia was attacked overnight on 13 September, Astra reported. By morning, residents began posting videos showing smoke over the refinery and nearby areas. That same morning, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) reported that Ukrainian drones had struck the Slavyansk-EKO refinery.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have become systematic, aimed in part at reducing the Russian military’s access to fuel, which is critical for waging the war. Ukrainian forces have been striking strategic facilities located hundreds of kilometers from the front line.

The design capacity of Slavyansk-EKO is approximately 5.2 million tonnes per year, though actual volumes are lower by about one to two million tonnes, Militarnyi reports.

Thick smoke visible for dozens of kilometers

The Ukrainian strike hit a key oil-processing unit and the facility’s oil storage tank farm, which “fuels the criminal war against Ukraine,” HUR reported.

Two oil storage tanks were destroyed in the strike, according to photos published by Dnipro Osint. Militarnyi noted that the photos also show damage to neighboring tanks.

The strike reportedly hit the area containing the facility’s largest storage tanks. The refinery operates using purchased or tolling crude oil because it does not have its own crude oil production base.

The refinery has been targeted before

Slavyansk-EKO is one of the largest independent oil refineries in southern Russia. The facility is located in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, about 69 kilometers northwest of Krasnodar.

Ukraine’s General Staff said that the refinery is “part of the energy rear of the Russian Federation and involved in supplying the armed forces of the aggressor.”

Before the 13 September strike, Ukrainian drones had struck the refinery at least four times, starting in 2024:

• 27 April 2024 — a Ukrainian drone attack damaged the Slavyansk refinery, after which a fire broke out at the facility.
  
• 19 May 2024 — SBU drones attacked the Slavyansk refinery, after which the facility suspended operations.
  
• 26 January 2026 — Ukrainian Defense Forces struck infrastructure at the Slavyansk-EKO refinery. According to preliminary data, elements of the primary oil refining unit were damaged.
  
• Five months later, on 28 June, Ukraine struck the Slavyansk refinery again, causing a large fire at the facility. EP noted that the refinery supplies fuel, including to occupied Crimea.
  

Russia has fielded a new generation of cheap, jet-powered drones and cruise missiles faster than Ukraine or the US can build defenses against them, according to The Wall Street Journal. The weapons run on Chinese parts that slip past Western sanctions, and they are already getting through air defenses designed to stop slower drones. Analysts say the West underestimated how fast Moscow could move from an idea to a full assembly line.

Russia now leans on cheap, mass-produced drones to swamp Ukraine's air defenses with sheer numbers night after night, and its factories keep growing to keep the attacks coming. The bigger lesson reaches past this war: in a long fight, cheap weapons in large numbers can beat a small stock of expensive ones.

A cheap weapon that gets past Ukraine's defenses

Ukraine had learned to shoot down the Iran-designed Shahed drones Russia was launching. Then Moscow moved the goalposts. The newest model, the Geran-5, looks more like a missile than a drone—Mike Monnik, head of the drone-threat firm DroneSec, called it "essentially a poor-man's cruise missile," and it forced a rewrite of Ukraine's counter-drone playbook. The Geran-5 and the Banderol cruise missiles are each estimated to cost about $100,000. A US Tomahawk costs more than $2 million.

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Built fast, with China's help

Moscow needed only about two years to take each weapon from the drawing board to the battlefield, reworking earlier designs, testing them in combat, and pushing them into serial production. Ukrainian assessments, echoed by the drone-intelligence firm DroneSec, trace the leap to Chinese parts—the turbojet engines, the navigation computers, the radios—most of them off-the-shelf, dual-use gear anyone can buy. The weapons are aimed at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure—a Banderol struck a residential area of Kharkiv in July.

An expensive problem for the West

US forces and NATO have knocked down cheap drones with costly Patriot interceptors and fighter jets, often firing several interceptors at a single weapon. Western firms that built interceptors for slow drones are now scrambling to make faster, jet-powered ones. Kateryna Bondar of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the West keeps underestimating how fast Russia turns experiments into production, and that Kyiv had years of warning yet was still caught off guard.

"I'm surprised everyone is surprised," she said.

At NATO's July summit in Ankara, members committed more than $40 billion to counter-drone defenses over the coming five years.

Russia has upgraded the Iranian Shahed it fires at Ukraine into jet-powered drones that Iran now wants back, the Financial Times reported. Tehran plans to use them in its own war against Israel and the United States, the paper reported, citing Western intelligence.

Russia now fights with weapons it churns out and revises mid-fight, a homegrown production model fast enough to turn a cheap imported airframe into something its original supplier now wants back.

From a 185 km/h propeller drone to a jet that looks like a missile

Russia started building the Geran, its own version of Iran's Shahed, in 2023. The first Geran-1 flew at up to 185 km/h with a 20-kilogram warhead. The newest Geran-5 flies at up to 600 km/h, carries a 90-kilogram warhead, and has a range of up to 1,000 km. Newer models add thermal cameras, AI-assisted guidance, Russian anti-jamming antennas, and Chinese mesh modems.

Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, a non-staff adviser to Ukraine's president on defense technology, has described how such drones work:

"A Russian operator flies at an altitude of 2–5 km, spots the target, locks onto it using the camera, and then the Shahed automatically attacks the target."

Almost all of Russia's jet drones used against Ukraine carry such a camera, he added.

Skipping the testing, straight to combat

Centralized production lets the Kremlin redesign fast and fold in combat lessons.

"The reason Russia was able to create a major new production line from scratch was because it's technologically a lot simpler than making something like tanks, which require enormous, unique and costly machine tools," said Ruslan Pukhov, who heads the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.

He added that they essentially skipped the long testing period that usually accompanies any military development process, with changes going straight into production and being checked in combat.

A Ukrainian company has unveiled a homegrown strike drone built to fly deep behind Russian lines, Militarnyi reported on 13 September. Octava Defence showed the new long-range aircraft—a bigger version of a drone already used in combat—at the MSPO 2026 defense expo in Kielce, Poland. The company says the smaller drone is built to keep working in electronic warfare conditions without a reliable satellite signal.

Russian jamming is one of the biggest obstacles to Ukrainian strikes deep in the rear, which is why Ukrainian makers keep building guidance that does not depend on satellite signals.

The workhorse is already in the fight

The base FLYCAT, presented in January 2026 by another Ukrainian firm, Venator Technologies, is a strike drone Ukrainian forces have used in combat since March. An improved model went into action in July and August and is now undergoing codification—entry into Ukraine's official weapons register.

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The company says the updated drone can fly more than 80 km, stay in the air for an hour, and carry a warhead weighing up to 3.7 kg. It is built to hunt armored vehicles, artillery, radars, and air-defense systems, as well as lighter shelters and communications gear. It can pair with a scout drone that finds the target and passes the coordinates. Several FLYCATs can also strike a single target together or hit multiple targets at once.

Nearly everything on it is built in Ukraine—the communications, navigation, guidance, and warhead. Only the engines come from abroad. Its two cameras—day-only or day-and-night—feed a terminal-guidance module that picks out the target from 2,000 m as it closes in.

The one that reaches deeper

The FLYCAT SL is a bigger, longer-range version, and it is still in testing. The company says it is built to fly more than 200 km, stay airborne for over two and a half hours, and carry a heavier load of up to 7 kg.

That range is meant to let it go after command posts, armored vehicles, artillery, and air defenses far behind the front line.

Russia struck a fourth Ukrainian pharmaceutical warehouse in two weeks on 14 September, setting fire to the Odesa depot of medicine distributor BaDM, Ekonomichna Pravda reported. Russian forces hit it during an attack they ran across the country through the night. 

The fourth depot, and what Russia did to it

The BaDM complex stands on the edge of Odesa. The strike started a fire on the grounds, and the State Emergency Service worked at the site. It left significant damage to the storage buildings.

Preliminarily, nobody was hurt, sources on the pharmaceutical market told Ekonomichna Pravda. BaDM is one of the biggest wholesalers moving medicines to Ukrainian pharmacies.

The three depots Russia hit before it

• Russia opened the run on 3 September, when it damaged the Biokon logistics complex in Boryspil raion, Kyiv Oblast. That site counts as the country's largest specialized pharmaceutical warehouse.
• Overnight on 8 September, Russian forces attacked the Kyiv warehouse of Optima-Pharm with two ballistic missiles. They had already destroyed that site, which belongs to one of the largest distributors, in 2025.
• On 13 September, Russian forces struck Universal Logistic, the second-largest medicine warehouse in Ukraine. Four specialized sites in two weeks is a pattern, and Russia now hits medicine storage as it has hit food, construction materials, and parcels.

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The attack the Odesa strike came in

Russia launched 108 strike drones from 18:00 on 13 September, Ukraine's Air Force said. The wave carried Shahed-type drones, among them jet-powered ones, Gerbera drones, and Parodiya decoys. Air defense downed or suppressed 85 of them by 08:00. Ukrainian forces recorded hits at seven locations, and the Air Force said the attack was still running when it published that count.

Russia is building large new production halls at the Tatarstan site where it assembles the Shahed/Geran-type attack drones it fires at Ukrainian cities, the Ukrainian geospatial and satellite intelligence analyst Dnipro Osint reported, publishing satellite images of the work. At least five long buildings stand finished in the southern part of the Alabuga special economic zone, with internal roads and access ways laid around them and further construction under way. What the new halls are for is not known yet.

What the images show

Several of the large workshops in the zone's southern section are already complete, and several more sites are in active construction, the analyst said. Laid roadways, and the outlines of additional buildings appear beside the finished rows, and he published the coordinates of the site along with the images.

The plant behind the nightly waves

The zone lies near the city of Yelabuga, more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, and has been one of Russia's principal military plants since 2023. It assembles the Shahed-type strike drones Russia calls Gerans, along with the Gerbera decoys flown alongside them, built at a tenth of a Shahed's cost to make Ukrainian air defense spend interceptors on empty airframes.

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Output has climbed with the attacks. Russia builds about 3,000 of the jet-powered version a month, by Ukrainian military intelligence's count, and has accumulated a reserve of more than 6,000 Gerans for large-scale attacks. The zone itself expanded by 340 hectares in a year, media reported in May.

Chinese firms supply the engines, navigation systems, and avionics, with Iran's role reduced to consultations and occasional deliveries, while Moscow claims the drones are fully localized. The workforce includes teenage students from the site's own Alabuga Polytech college and women recruited as labor migrants from African and Central Asian countries, some of whom were later sent to the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

Struck repeatedly, expanding anyway

Ukrainian long-range drones have hit the zone's workshops more than once, including a confirmed strike on Shahed storage there. None of them disabled the facility, since Ukrainian long-range drones carry too little explosive to wreck industrial buildings. Russia has also fortified the site, installing more than 20 towers with heavy machine guns on its territory and perimeter.