Commenting on Russia’s 12 July drone attack, ISW said it continues to assess that Russia’s ongoing large-scale air assaults are intended to degrade Ukrainian and Western morale and highlight Ukraine’s need for continued Western support for its interceptor drone program and for Western-supplied air defense systems, especially US Patriots.

ISW: Russia targets morale in Ukraine and the West

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is using mass air attacks not solely to cause damage, but to psychologically exhaust Ukraine and its allies. ISW emphasized that this psychological dimension is now central to Russia’s strategy, and Ukraine’s continued ability to protect its skies depends heavily on consistent Western aid.

“ISW continues to assess that Russia’s ongoing large-scale strikes are intended to degrade Ukrainian and Western morale and underscore Ukraine’s need for continued Western support for Ukraine’s interceptor drone program and for the continued supply of Western air defense systems, especially US-provided Patriot systems,” ISW wrote.

ISW has already noted previously that “The continued increase in the size of strike packages is likely intended to support Russian efforts to degrade Ukrainian morale in the face of constant Russian aggression.”

Russia launched third massive drone-missile strike this month

As Euromaidan Press reported yesterday, Russia launched a major combined drone and missile strike overnight on 11–12 July — its third large-scale air attack this month. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russia launched 339 Iranian-designed Shahed-type drones and 258 decoy UAVs, totaling 597 drones, from several locations within Russia. Russia also fired 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles from airspace over Saratov Oblast.

Ukraine’s air defenders downed 319 Shaheds and 25 missiles, while another 258 drones were either suppressed or lost via electronic warfare. Despite successful interception, critical infrastructure and civilian facilities were damaged in Chernivtsi, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Lviv, Sumy, and Volyn oblasts.

Mykola Kalashnyk, head of the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration, said Ukraine’s Clean Sky interceptor drone program downed over 50 drones during the overnight strike.

Russia is attempting to trade business cooperation with the US in exchange for concessions in its war against Kyiv. At the same time, Moscow relentlessly attacks civilians, killing women and children with record numbers of drones, demanding Ukraine’s surrender, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports. 

“The Kremlin continues efforts to use its diplomatic engagements with the United States in an effort to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and toward the potential restoration of US-Russian relations,” experts conclude.

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement on the Rubio-Lavrov meeting, they discussed bilateral US-Russia issues unrelated to the war in Ukraine, including the restoration of contacts, economic and humanitarian cooperation, direct air travel, and the work of diplomatic missions.

The Russian Foreign Ministry also said that the US and Russia will continue dialogue on a “growing range of issues of mutual interest.”

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on 10 July that he sees no slowdown in the development of US-Russia relations.

The day before the meeting, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova reaffirmed Russia’s initial military demands for regime change in Ukraine and demilitarization. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov again stated that Moscow insists on recognizing the “realities on the ground.”

“Kremlin officials’ public statements continue to demonstrate that Russia remains committed to achieving its original war goals in Ukraine and is not interested in good faith negotiations to end the war, however,” the ISW writes. 

The analysts emphasize that Kremlin officials often urge Ukraine to accept the “realities on the ground,” meaning the current frontline in Ukraine, implying Russia holds a stronger negotiating position due to the battlefield situation. They also demand that Ukraine concede to Russian demands to change its government, stop arms deliveries, and reduce its army.