Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used a media interview to unleash a barrage of accusations against the Baltic States, echoing the same narratives Russia once used to justify its invasions of Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War, this signals a renewed Kremlin effort to set long-term pretext conditions for a possible future attack on Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania.

Lavrov escalates anti-Baltic rhetoric in major narrative shift

The Institute says Russia is "conducting multiple information operations against the Baltic States as it did to justify the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of Phase Zero conditions-setting for a possible attack on the Baltic States at some point in the future." ISW, however, doesn't predict an "imminent Russian attack on the Baltics" yet.

Lavrov’s comments, given in a 11 November interview to Russian media, combined several long-running Russian propaganda claims into a single statement. He accused Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania of harboring “Russophobia,” promoting “anti-Russian” sentiment, and mistreating Russian speakers. He also alleged that the Baltic States had violated agreements with Russia and painted them as pawns of the United Kingdom. According to Lavrov, they had lost their sovereignty and were no longer truly European.

No signs of imminent attack, but groundwork being laid

ISW assessed that Lavrov’s statements are part of ongoing Russian Phase Zero operations — a strategy to set informational conditions for possible military aggression. It emphasized that such efforts can last for years and do not necessarily result in an attack. ISW said there are no indicators of imminent military preparations against NATO states.

Still, the think tank stressed that these activities echo pre-2022 Russian efforts toward Ukraine and warned against ignoring the parallels.

"ISW’s assessments that these and other activities constitute Phase Zero conditions-setting efforts are meant to call attention to the parallels with pre-2022 Russian conditions-setting efforts vis-à-vis Ukraine but are not an imminent attack warning at this time," the think tank wrote.

Russian officials are using deported Ukrainian children as a political tool, framing limited returns as signs of goodwill toward the United States, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Kremlin is presenting these cases as evidence of cooperation with Washington even as it continues large-scale deportations in violation of international law.

Ukraine and international investigators have documented at least 19,500 cases of children forcibly taken from occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia - an act recognized as a war crime under international law.

ISW reports that Russian Direct Investment Fund head Kirill Dmitriev and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova have both used the issue publicly. Dmitriev, sanctioned by the US in 2022, responded to First Lady Melania Trump’s announcement of the return of seven Ukrainian children with handshake and flag emojis, suggesting that Moscow views the matter as leverage for restoring ties.

The institute says the Kremlin is advancing two overlapping narratives. The first downplays the scale of deportations by claiming Russia took only “hundreds” of children for humanitarian reasons. The second portrays the issue as an area of cooperation with the US, implying that further returns could follow improved relations.

Russian data contradict these claims. Official reports show children from occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions have been placed in Russian families or institutions across at least 20 regions since 2022. Ukraine has confirmed 19,500 deported children, while Russia’s own commissioner for children’s rights has acknowledged receiving more than 700,000 minors “from Ukraine.”

ISW says Russia is using the return of a few children to obscure the broader campaign of forced deportations and adoptions. The institute notes that these actions constitute war crimes under international law and that Moscow has not documented the identities of the children it has taken.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to justify the slow pace of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine by claiming that the safety of Russian forces and civilians is a top priority, the Institute for the Study of War reports. 

Putin’s rhetoric frames Russia’s slow advances as a moral choice, but evidence from Ukrainian territory points to a strategy defined by brutality rather than restraint.

In recent statements, Putin said Russian troops will not be working toward fixed deadlines, emphasizing that they should allow Ukrainian forces to surrender safely and treat defeated enemies “with mercy.”

However, the ISW said these claims are contradicted by extensive evidence of Russian atrocities in Ukraine. 

The ISW highlighted deliberate attacks on civilians, including first-person view drone strikes in Kherson Oblast since late 2023, and recent killings in Pokrovsk and Zvanivka, Bakhmutsky Raion. 

By spring 2025, Kherson residents reported up to 100 drone attacks daily, describing how Russian forces use FPV drones to hunt individuals in so-called “human safaris.” The UN Commission found that civilian casualties from explosive weapons rose by 40% in the first eight months of 2025 compared to the previous year, with drone strikes representing a growing share.

These attacks intensified throughout 2024-2025 as drones transformed from surveillance units into lethal weapons systems pursuing human targets, with Russian forces also deliberately striking ambulances and emergency responders.

The institute also cited evidence of repeated executions of surrendering Ukrainian prisoners of war and concluded that Russian battlefield commanders are complicit in, and in some cases explicitly order, extreme abuses, including summary executions.

Despite extensive documentation of war crimes, accountability remains virtually nonexistent. Only two Russians have been convicted for 273 Ukrainian POW executions, with half occurring in 2025 as systematic killings escalate. 

Russian military units implicated in war crimes have received official honors from Putin, while UN monitoring found that 95% of released Ukrainian POWs experienced systematic torture, including beatings, suffocation, mock executions, electric shocks, and sexual abuse in Russian detention.

Russia’s defense manufacturing is stalling for the first time since 2022, and ISW’s data confirms the pattern Ukrainian analysts warned about weeks ago.

The timing matters because sanctions and unsustainable wartime spending are now fracturing Russia’s manufacturing capacity precisely when Moscow needs maximum production to sustain its eastern offensive.

Manufacturing decline hits critical sectors

ISW reported on 26 October that Russian Federal State Statistics Service data shows fabricated metal production decreased 1.6 percent year-on-year in September 2025, after surging 21.2 percent in August. Transport equipment output growth—including tanks and armored vehicles—slowed to six percent, down from 61.2 percent the previous month.

Russia’s machine-building sector, heavily dependent on state defense orders, fell 0.1 percent in September after surging 15.7 percent in August.

This confirms the economic fracture pattern Euromaidan Press documented two weeks ago, when economist Volodymyr Vlasiuk’s analysis revealed Russia’s real inflation running at 25.6 percent—not the official 8.2 percent—with civilian sectors declining across the board and business “mortality” exceeding new company registrations for the first time since sanctions began.

US Treasury validates inflation assessment

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 26 October statement to CBS News aligns precisely with the earlier analysis. Bessent confirmed Russia’s inflation rate exceeds 20 percent—contradicting Moscow’s official statistics—while Russian oil profits have fallen 20 percent year-on-year.

These assessments validate Euromaidan Press’s 12-18-month collapse timeline and suggest Moscow’s window for sustaining its offensive is narrower than the Kremlin claims.

Russia’s claims of victory in Ukraine are pure fiction, argues retired US General Jack Keane in his 24 October 2025 New York Post opinion piece. Despite nearly four years of all-out war, Russia is bleeding manpower, facing a collapsing economy, and relying on lies to mask its military failure. 

Keane, chair of the Institute for the Study of War, says Kremlin propaganda conceals the reality that Russia is losing militarily and internally.

Russia’s war of attrition hides catastrophic losses

According to Keane, Vladimir Putin insists that victory in Ukraine is inevitable and refuses any peace deal that does not hand him full control of the Donbas. Yet after years of fighting, Russia’s forces remain stuck in place. They have failed to take any major Ukrainian city since 2022 and now fight for small towns and empty fields at what Keane calls “extravagant losses.”

Ukraine’s resistance, aided by effective drone warfare, has forced Russian troops to abandon tanks and mechanized formations. Instead, they attack in small squads of three to five soldiers, suffering massive casualties to move only meters forward. Keane cites data showing that in 2025, Russian forces lost an average of 70 to 75 soldiers for every square kilometer captured — a rate he calls “horrifying.”

Putin leans on foreign allies as Russia’s losses mount and recruitment system unravels

Keane writes that without China, North Korea, and Iran, Russia’s war effort would collapse. He highlights that 10,000 North Korean troops helped Moscow retake Kursk — a move he calls embarrassing.

Even as Russia loses 35,000 troops per month, the Kremlin is cutting enlistment bonuses. Keane suggests forced mobilization may follow, risking backlash at home.

As Russia’s economy sinks, Kremlin bets big on propaganda

Keane reports Russia’s sovereign wealth fund dropped from $113 billion in 2022 to $50.26 billion by October 2025. The country faces 16.5% interest rates and a 13–20% gasoline shortage due to Ukrainian refinery strikes. Trump’s sanctions have also hurt oil revenues.

Despite this, the Kremlin raised propaganda spending by 54% in its 2026 budget, flooding media with false victories to hide battlefield losses and economic pain.