Russia has started using a new drone tactic in Ukraine. Russian Shahed kamikaze drones have begun performing complex maneuvers mid-flight in an apparent attempt to evade Ukrainian interceptor drones, according to electronic warfare expert Serhii Beskrestnov, also known as Flash. 

“Shaheds have started executing a set of complex in-flight maneuvers aimed at reducing the effectiveness of our aerial interceptor drones,”  explains Beskrestnov. 

According to him, the Russian military has long been preparing to counter Ukrainian interceptors, and this new drone approach is only the beginning.

Ukraine prepares to strike back

Despite the new threat, the expert assures that Ukraine is actively improving its own interception technology.

“We will keep working on countering their tech with ours. You didn’t really think the enemy would abandon its most widespread weapon so easily, did you?” the expert says. 

A technological fight unfolds

Shaheds remain one of the main threats to Ukraine’s rear, making the development of interceptor drones a key component of defense. As the situation shows, the air war is entering a new phase, the one where each side upgrades its unmanned systems in real time.

Russia is wiping out Ukrainian cities daily. In the first half of 2025, 6,754 civilians in Ukraine were killed or injured, the highest number for a six-month period since 2022, says Miroslav Jenča, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia, and the Americas, UkrInform reports.

Daily shelling of Ukrainian towns and villages with missiles and drones has only intensified, he said during a UN Security Council meeting. June saw the highest monthly civilian casualty count in three years.

In July alone, Russia launched at least 5,183 long-range munitions at Ukraine, including a record 728 drones on 9 July. Kyiv and the port city of Odesa have been hit hardest in recent weeks.

Even Ukraine’s western regions, once considered relatively safe, are no longer spared from massive aerial attacks.

According to official UN data, at least 13,580 civilians have been killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, including 716 children. Another 34,115 people have been injured.

“There is no safe place in Ukraine today,” said Jenča.

He stressed that international law clearly prohibits attacks on civilians and that the UN strongly condemns all such assaults.

On 25 July, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi met with the newly appointed Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Alexis Grinkevich, in Kyiv. 

Major General Andrii Hnatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Curtis Buzzard, Head of NATO’s Security Assistance Mission, also joined the comprehensive discussion. 

Russia throws everything it has, but Ukraine braces for the counterstrike

During the talks, Syrskyi emphasized that Russia has already mobilized the maximum of its human and material resources in an attempt to break through. However, despite the pressure, Ukraine retains conventional capabilities to destroy offensive groupings.

“Our allies fully understand the scale and complexity of the tasks facing the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” he said.

Patriots incoming: NATO sends weapons — Europe pays

The parties discussed the expedited transfer of new air defense systems purchased for Ukraine by European allies.

“We are grateful to President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for the swift delivery of these systems. They are already on their way,” Syrskyi stressed.

The systems in question are Patriots, a key Ukrainian defense against ballistic missile strikes. As of now, Kyiv has eight batteries, six of which were operational in May. The new deliveries could increase the total to 13.

The deliveries were announced by US President Donald Trump after Russia began launching massive attacks on Ukraine, right after any conversations he or US representatives had with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin.

Trump also revealed a new aid model: the US will produce weapons for NATO and Ukraine, while European partners will foot the bill. Ukraine will receive modern missiles and military equipment, critically needed at this stage of the war.

Ten Russian oblasts came under drone attacks overnight against 25 July, according to Russia’s Ministry of Defense and Russian Telegram channels.

Russian air defense intercepted 105 unmanned aerial vehicles, the ministry reported. Over 20 drones were destroyed above Belgorod, Bryansk and Rostov oblasts each. The remaining drones were shot down over the Sea of Azov waters, Krasnodar and Stavropol oblasts, and Kursk, Tambov, Voronezh and Oryol regions.

Nevinnomyssk mayor Mikhail Minenkov said about “37 arrivals” in the Stavropol Oblast city. The attacks allegedly passed without casualties or destruction, according to the mayor.

The Nevinnomyssk Azot chemical plant came under attack, reports Astra resource. Local residents reported the attack on the facility overnight, and eyewitness footage documented the strikes, according to Astra.

The city mayor later showed the plant territory from a distance on video and praised the “plant workers,” indirectly confirming that the enterprise was the target of the attacks. 

The chemical plant has been struck for the second time in two months. On 14 June, a 13-drone attack on the Nevinnomyssk Azot facility knocked out doors, windows and premises of one of the workshops. The plant’s cafeteria roof and anti-drone protection were also damaged. Some 800 chemical plant employees waited out the attack in a bomb shelter, with no evacuation conducted. The enterprise had to suspend operations.

Reuters reported that two EuroChem plants – Nevinnomyssk Nitrogen Plant and Novomoskovsky Azot – shipped at least 38,000 tons of acetic acid and nearly 5,000 tons of nitric acid to the Sverdlov plant in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, from 2022 to 2024. These materials are used to produce octogen and hexogen, which are then used for artillery shells, the publication noted.

According to Astra, the NAK Azot plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, has also been attacked by drones at least three times this year.

In Krasnodar Oblast, minor damage to private houses and damage to the Timashevsk railway station occurred, reported governor Veniamin Kondratyev.

Drone debris damaged one of the passenger train cars there. Two people sustained minor injuries.

During the drone attacks, airports in Vladikavkaz, Grozny, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Stavropol, Tambov and Sochi temporarily ceased operations.

The company EasyStaff, founded by Russians in Vilnius, has transferred over €50 million to Russia while facilitating the hiring of Russian freelancers by Western companies, LTR reports. 

Founded in 2020 by Russian citizens Vitaly Mikhailov and Yevgeny Fedorov, EasyStaff brands itself as a global freelancing platform. In reality, however, it may act as a mechanism that may allow EU and US sanctions to be circumvented.

EasyStaff utilizes alternative payment methods such as PayPal, Skrill, card transactions, and cryptocurrency, thereby bypassing SWIFT restrictions.

According to Lithuania’s State Data Agency, imports of computer services from Russia rose from €2.64 million in 2023 to over €56 million in 2024, which is nearly twice the pre-pandemic level. Yet when contacted by LRT’s investigative team, no government agency could initially explain this surge.

Eventually, the reporters discovered that most of the €56 million traced back to a single company: EasyStaff.

Though EasyStaff presents itself as a global platform helping companies hire and pay foreign freelancers, in practice it serves as a bridge for EU and US businesses seeking to contract Russian workers without direct interaction with sanctioned banks.

Mikhailov insists the platform is globally oriented and denies that Russians form its main client base.

When asked whether EasyStaff helps Russian firms navigate sanctions, Mikhailov replied that the company breaks no laws and works only with non-sanctioned banks. He added that EasyStaff consults with two law firms to ensure full compliance with restrictions and claimed that clients choose the company for its efficiency, not to evade sanctions.

Since EasyStaff lacks a payment institution license in Lithuania, it is not regulated by the Bank of Lithuania. A spokesperson for the central bank noted that EasyStaff appears to function more like a marketplace for service contracts than a payment processor.

Lithuania’s Financial Crime Investigation Service has confirmed awareness of the company but said it has detected any threats.

Beijing continues fueling Russia’s war against Ukraine. Chinese companies are supplying engines for attack drones through front companies, falsely labeling them as “industrial refrigeration units” to bypass Western sanctions, Reuters reports.

According to the report, Russian arms producer IEMZ Kupol signed a contract with Russia’s Ministry of Defense to manufacture over 6,000 Garpia-A1 drones in 2025, which is three times more than the previous year.

By April, over 1,500 drones had already been assembled and were being launched en masse against Ukrainian military and civilian targets, up to 500 per month, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence.

A key component of the Garpia drone is the Chinese L550E engine produced by Xiamen Limbach Aviation Engine Co. After sanctions were imposed on Xiamen, a new Chinese firm, Beijing Xichao International Technology and Trade, began delivering the same engines to Russia.

In shipping documents, they were labeled as cooling units, enabling unimpeded transfer in violation of sanctions.

The supply route ran through a network of shell companies: from Beijing to Moscow, and then to Izhevsk, where the Kupol plant is located. According to sources in three EU intelligence services, the shipments first went to a firm called SMP-138, then to another company, LIBSS, which delivered the engines directly to the factory. This is how “refrigerators” became weapons.

Despite repeated warnings, Chinese airlines, including Sichuan Airlines and China Southern Airlines, continued transporting drone components since at least October 2024.

Previously, US Army Europe and NATO Allied Forces Supreme Commander General Alexus Grynkewich warned that American and its European allies likely have only a year and a half to prepare for a potential global military conflict with China and Russia. The dictatorships may launch a coordinated strike in 2027.

Russia has deployed additional electronic warfare equipment near the Baltic nation’s frontier, escalating regional tensions as GPS jamming incidents increase across the region, Estonia’s Interior Minister Igor Taro said on 24 July.

Western security assessments warn that Russia poses a continuing threat of future aggression against EU countries, with concerns growing over its long-term strategic intentions beyond Ukraine. The Baltic nations – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – are named among the most threatened nation.

Russian forces moved signals jamming systems to the Kingisiepp area, located 20 kilometers from Estonia’s border, Igor Taro announced during a press conference in Tallinn on 24 July, according to Bloomberg.

The Russian Defense Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

The equipment mirrors technology Russia employs in Ukraine to disrupt drone navigation systems. However, the electronic warfare capabilities create widespread interference with GPS systems used by commercial aviation and maritime vessels.

Estonia’s internal security agency has contacted Russian military officials regarding the deployment, according to Taro. The development follows earlier warnings from Estonian authorities about intensified GPS interference near Narva and the Narva Bay coastline.

The jamming campaign extends beyond Estonia’s borders. Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa said that Russia’s GPS signal blocking scope “is expanding.” Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on 17 June that his country “records GPS disruptions over the Baltic Sea” linked to Russian activities.

Estonia, positioned on NATO’s eastern flank, maintains strong support for Ukraine while rapidly expanding its defense capabilities to counter potential Russian aggression. Regional tensions have heightened since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Baltic states reporting increased electronic warfare incidents.

The electronic warfare systems pose risks beyond military applications, as GPS interference affects civilian aircraft navigation and commercial shipping operations throughout the Baltic region.

In December 2024, the Indian company Ideal Detonators Private Limited shipped two batches of octogen, a military-grade explosive, to Russia, totaling over $1.4 million. Recipients included the Russian company Promsintez and High Technology Initiation Systems, Reuters reports.

An SBU official reveals that in April, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on a plant owned by Promsintez.

Octogen is critical to modern missile warheads, torpedoes, explosive shells, and rocket engines. According to the Pentagon, this high-quality explosive is used in Russia’s advanced military systems, and the US government has warned financial institutions not to support octogen sales to Moscow.

Three sanctions lawyers say the US Treasury Department has the authority to impose sanctions on those selling octogen and similar materials to Russia. Octogen is known as a “high-performance explosive,” meaning it detonates quickly and is designed for maximum destruction.

The US State Department says it has repeatedly warned India that companies involved in military business face sanctions risks.

Reuters identified two shipments of octogen sent by India’s Ideal Detonators Private Limited in December, both unloaded in Saint Petersburg, according to Indian customs data. An Indian official familiar with these shipments confirmed their presence.

One batch, valued at $405,200, was purchased by a Russian company, High Technology Initiation Systems. The other batch, worth over $1 million, was bought by Promsintez. Both buyers are located in Samara Oblast, near the Kazakhstan border in southern Russia.

Ideal Detonators, based in Telangana, India, declined to comment.

Under the Trump administration, progress on Russia-related sanctions slowed significantly, and it remains unclear whether the US will take further action against Indian companies doing business with Russia’s defense industry.

Washington has long sought closer ties with India to pull the South Asian country away from China.

Eric Prince, a partner at Washington law firm Akin, said the US government often prefers to raise concerns privately with allies and resorts to punitive measures only as a last resort.

During the latest prisoner swap with Russia, Ukraine brought back the last defender of Zmiinyi or Zmiinyi (Snake) Island. Vitalii Hyrenko returned home after spending more than three years in Russian captivity, the Facebook community of the Defenders of Zmiinyi Island reports. 

“The long-awaited exchange, three years and five months in captivity, for our last defender of Zmiinyi Island has taken place! Border guard of the island of Achilles, Vitalii Hyrenko, is home!!! Free, unbroken in spirit and body, Vitalii is finally back on his native soil,” the post reads.

In a February update, the community shared that Hyrenko’s small son, Dmytro, only knew his father from photos.

“When Vitalii was taken captive, his wife Aliona was seven months pregnant,” it wrote.

The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War also confirmed that Hyrenko, a soldier of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, had been released from captivity.

Following negotiations in Istanbul, the ninth round of prisoner exchanges with the Russian side took place on 24 July.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that severely wounded and critically ill defenders had returned home. According to him, more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been freed from Russian captivity across all phases of this exchange.

Ukraine is preparing for a new phase of the war. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul says Kyiv forces will receive secret weapons to “influence” Russia’s territory, Zeit reports.

Wadephul emphasizes that European partners are now working intensively on the weapons delivery for Ukraine. He explains that the issue is not about finances but about the defense industry’s production capacity. 

“Ukraine has the right to defend itself against attacks. It will also have the ability to affect Russian territory, but we will not reveal to Putin what weapon systems we are supplying to Ukraine,” Wadephul states.

He has not mentioned specific names or dates for the deliveries. Separately, Wadephul says he had stopped looking for logic in the Russian terror against Ukrainian civilians.

“He will stop only when he realizes his plan isn’t working,” the German minister concludes.

In July, Germany announced it would supply five Patriot systems, which are to be delivered to Ukraine “soon.” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed he had reached an agreement with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on the delivery. The Patriots are the only systems Ukraine has that can intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

Berlin also announced plans to supply over 200,000 shells for Gepard systems capable of shooting down Russian drones, and to fund the purchase of Ukrainian long-range drones to strike targets deep in the Russian rear.

Ukraine and Russia have completed the ninth stage of prisoner exchanges under agreements reached during the second round of negotiations in Istanbul on 2 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media.

According to Zelenskyy, the exchange conducted on 23 July brought home seriously ill and seriously injured defenders.

“We can already talk about the details – through all stages of the latest Istanbul agreements, we managed to return more than 1,000 of our people. For a thousand families, this is the joy of embracing their loved ones again,” Zelenskyy said.

The returned soldiers defended Ukraine on various front directions, according to the president. A significant number reportedly were in captivity for more than three years.

“All will receive the necessary support and medical care. It is important that exchanges continue and our people are returning home,” Zelenskyy said.

The prisoner exchange program stems from agreements made on 2 June in Istanbul, where Ukrainian and Russian representatives agreed to exchanges in a format of 1,000 for 1,000, plus an additional 200 for 200 military prisoners. The sides also agreed on repatriation of 6,000 bodies of fallen soldiers from each side.

The first stage of exchanges under the Istanbul agreements began on 9 June, when Ukraine returned military personnel under 25 years old. Subsequent exchanges occurred on 10, 12, 14, 19, 20, and 26 June, with 4 July, marking the most recent prior exchange before today’s ninth stage.

Between 11-16 June, Ukraine completed the repatriation portion of the Istanbul agreements, receiving 6,057 bodies of fallen Ukrainian citizens, including military personnel. Russia received 27 bodies during the initial June 11 repatriation, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of Prisoners of War has not disclosed specific numbers of returned soldiers during ongoing exchange processes for security reasons, stating these figures will be announced upon completion of the exchange program.

President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Vladimir Putin over Ukraine has been interpreted by Moscow as permission to intensify military operations through the summer, Politico reported on 22 July, citing Russian analysts.

Trump delivered his demands during an Oval Office press conference last week, largely leaving NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to outline the new American policy. The president stipulated that Putin must agree to a ceasefire by September or face additional economic penalties, including tariffs on countries trading with Western-sanctioned Russia.

The US will also sell Patriot air defense systems to Europe for transfer to Ukraine and provide additional weapons, though specific numbers and types remain undisclosed.

Russian markets responded positively to the announcement, with stocks rising 2.7 percent in the hours following Trump’s statement. The ruble also reversed some losses against the dollar.

“The ultimatum was essentially interpreted by Moscow as carte blanche to intensify its offensive in Ukraine,”  Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya said, according to Politico.

Russian military analyst Yury Fedorov said the Kremlin had feared “immediate imposition” of secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers and immediate deliveries of long-range missiles. Instead, Moscow now believes “Trump is not prepared and does not want to engage in a major confrontation with Russia,” according to Fedorov.

Trump’s former Russia czar Fiona Hill warned in a recent interview that the president is “deferential towards Putin because he really is worried about the risk of a nuclear exchange.” Hill added that Trump “thinks it’s just about real estate, about trade and who gets what, be it minerals, land or rare earths.”

“Putin doesn’t want a ceasefire. [He] wants a neutered Ukraine, not one that is able to withstand military pressure. Everybody sees this, apart from Trump,” Hill said.

Putin has maintained his preconditions for ending the war. At the recent St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, he reiterated demands for international recognition of territories he claims are Russian and Ukraine’s adoption of neutral, non-aligned status.

Ella Paneyakh, a sociologist at the New Eurasian Strategies Center, argues Putin needs to prolong the war because an abrupt halt would trigger “cruel and vicious competition for diminishing resources at every level of society.”

“Returning veterans — especially socially-connected contract soldiers — are likely to demand privileges and disrupt local balances of power, challenging both elites and institutions,” Paneyakh said. She warned that conflicts would “inevitably take place with those they perceive as ‘cowards’ who did not go to fight.”

Russian state oil and gas revenue is set to fall in July by around 37% from the same month in 2024 to 680 billion roubles ($8.66 billion) due to cheaper oil and a stronger local currency, Reuters reported on 22 July.

The oil and gas revenues significantly fund Russia’s war effort, and a reduction narrows Moscow’s ability to sustain its military campaign. This drop has mainly been caused by Western sanctions, persistent price caps, discounting of Russian oil, lower global oil prices, and declining gas exports amid the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The decline marks a significant drop in proceeds from what has been “the most important source of cash for the Kremlin, making up a quarter of total federal budget proceeds,” according to Reuters analysis.

Despite the annual decline, the proceeds are “set to increase by 37% from June due to cyclical payments of oil profit-based tax,” Reuters calculations indicate.

According to Reuters, the average Russian oil price calculated in roubles has remained below the federal budget’s target for 2025 throughout the period analyzed.

The broader impact extends beyond July, with Russia’s oil and gas revenue for January-July potentially declining “by 20% year-on-year to 5.4 trillion roubles,” Reuters calculations show.

The finance ministry will publish its official estimates on 5 August, according to the report.

Budget projections have undergone substantial revisions this year. The ministry had initially planned to earn 10.94 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales this year, but due to falling oil prices, it revised that expectation down to 8.32 trillion roubles.

This represents a sharp contrast to 2024 performance, when “oil and gas revenue reached 11.13 trillion roubles last year,” according to the data.

Day 1245

On 22 July, the biggest news comes from Russia.

Here, a staggering announcement has pulled the curtain back on the country’s wartime manpower crisis. Moscow plans to import one million Indian workers, a move that reveals the scale of Russia’s internal collapse and its growing dependence on foreign labor to sustain even basic functions. The announcement came from the Ural Chambers of Commerce and Industry, which revealed plans to bring in one million Indian laborers to fill vacancies left by Russians sent to the front.

These workers are not being hired for skilled industry or reconstruction, but keep everyday systems running, a signal that Russia’s domestic labor pool has been gutted by conscription. Framing this as a commercial initiative barely conceals its real function: covering for the massive depletion of able-bodied workers across the country.

The impact was immediate, and while state media largely ignored the news, regional outlets and officials confirmed it quietly, and the announcement circulated widely on military-focused channels.

What little commentary emerged from Russian politicians was vague and avoidant, focused on economic partnerships rather than addressing the underlying issue. But the move did not go unnoticed; it broke a powerful illusion that Russia, despite mounting casualties and mobilization rounds, could rely indefinitely on its population. This moment also reveals growing fatigue inside Russian society; the silence of the state has left a vacuum filled with sarcasm and unease. Russian veterans’ associations and military analysts, many of whom have supported earlier mobilizations, are now beginning to question the logic of replacing conscripted citizens with foreigners. Their tone has shifted from patriotic confidence to guarded discomfort, a trend that points to a broader decline of the war narrative.

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The scale of this decline was underscored by a separate development just days earlier. Pavel Gubarev, a former official of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic, publicly admitted that Russia has suffered over one million killed, wounded, or missing in just three and a half years. A million is not a small number, he said, a statement all the more notable because it came not through official channels, but during an informal interview that quickly spread online. No Kremlin spokesperson has confirmed the figure, but Gubarev’s words offered a rare breach in the wall of censorship and illustrated how deeply the toll has cut into Russian society.

The Indian Labor plan is not an isolated event; it is part of a broader shift in how Russia is attempting to offset its mounting losses. In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have captured multiple Cameroonian nationals in frontline areas. These individuals had been promised factory work in Russia but were issued military gear upon arrival. Their contracts promised just about 1 million rubles or 13 thousand dollars, significantly less than Russian recruits, confirming that Moscow is sourcing expendable labor from abroad.

Many appear unaware of their actual assignments until it is too late, and a similar pattern is emerging with Laos. According to Ukrainian intelligence, a contingent of Laotian engineering troops is being deployed to the Kursk region under the label of demining operations.

But the same pattern, masked deployments of foreign military personnel, has already been seen in cases involving North Korea and other partners. Moscow appears to be rebranding foreign troop presence as humanitarian aid to skirt domestic sensitivities and international scrutiny.

Russia’s military reliance on imported labor is no longer a rumor or an isolated tactic; it is becoming an institutionalized strategy. In doing so, Moscow is quietly acknowledging what it cannot say openly: that the war has drained its population, that patriotic mobilization is no longer enough, and that without external manpower, even the home front may begin to falter.

Overall, the decision to bring in one million Indian workers is not simply a logistical fix; it is a political rupture.

Russia’s war is now visibly outsourced, with foreign labor increasingly filling roles once held by Russian citizens. India, Cameroon, and Laos are not volunteering support; they are being drawn into a system that conceals its real costs and intentions.

For Ukraine and its partners, this shift is a clear indicator that Russia’s manpower crisis is not just real, it is accelerating.

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A Novocherskassk drone strike overnight triggered explosions and fires at key infrastructure in southern Russia’s Rostov Oblast, disrupting transport, internet services, and damaging an energy facility. Despite official claims that only debris fell, local reports and videos suggest direct hits on strategic sites. Novocherkassk is located more than 200 km from the frontline.

Power station, railway, and telecom targeted in drone strike

In the early hours of 23 July, acting head of Rostov Oblast Yurii Slyusar claimed several areas came under drone attack, including Novocherskassk, as well as the Shakhty, Myasnykivskyi, Rodionovo-Nesvitaiskyi, and Aksaiskyi districts. He stated three people were allegedly injured and repeated the usual Russian narrative of “falling debris” causing damage.

The Russian news Telegram channel Astra, citing eyewitnesses, reported that both the railway station area and the Novocherskassk State District Power Station (DRES) were struck. The Ukrainian Telgram channel Exilenova+ shared videos, showing a direct hit reportedly on the station.

Following the blasts, traffic at a local railway crossing was halted, with one driver telling Astra that a jam quickly formed due to the closure.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed 33 drones were intercepted or destroyed overnight across its territory, 11 of them over Rostov Oblast. The ministry did not acknowledge any successful strikes, and made no reference to damage at infrastructure sites.

Evacuation may become impossible. Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has urged all Polish citizens currently in Russia to leave the country immediately, The Moscow Times reports, citing an official statement by the agency.

The Polish Foreign Ministry has emphasized particular concern for Polish nationals holding dual citizenship with Russia. According to Polish diplomats, Russian authorities treat such individuals exclusively as Russian citizens, making them subject to military mobilization, a decree issued in September 2022 and still formally in effect.

“We recommend that Polish citizens currently in Russia leave the country using available commercial or private means, unless their personal, family, or professional circumstances require them to remain,” the statement reads.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland has also warned that consular assistance options are extremely limited. Due to Russia’s reduced diplomatic and consular presence, obtaining support may require traveling to remote regions far from major urban centers.

Other risks include the suspension of direct air travel between Poland and Russia, inoperative international bank cards, and the aggressive conduct of Russian security services, who are reportedly authorized to detain individuals, search phones, and carry out street-level surveillance.

“In the event of a sudden deterioration in the security situation, closure of borders, or other unforeseen developments, evacuation may be significantly hindered, or entirely impossible,” the ministry cautions.

Earlier, a Russian drone attack on Ukraine damaged the Polish company Barlinek in the city of Vinnytsia.  As a result of the strike, two employees were hospitalized in serious condition, suffering from numerous burns. According to Polish sources, the attack could be deliberate as retaliation for providing Ukraine with aid. 

Russia is planning its largest armament program since the collapse of the USSR, spending approximately $1.1 trillion by 2036, says Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, UNIAN reports. 

“There is a total mobilization of politics, economy, and society in the Russian Federation to prepare for a future large-scale war,” emphasizes Budanov.

Russia’s military reform already includes the creation of two new military districts, the Moscow and Leningrad districts, as well as plans to form new divisions, formations, and military units.

The Ukrainian intelligence head also notes that Moscow seeks to dismantle the global security and economic order. Russia is expanding its influence in Africa, primarily through private military companies Wagner and the African Corps, and supports authoritarian regimes and terrorist organizations worldwide.

Additionally, Russians actively conduct hybrid information and cyber operations in other countries, employing controlled media outlets and politicians to spread their influence.

“Moscow aims to impose its own vision of the future world order, where the ‘great’ powers, primarily the Russian Federation, hold full authority, monopoly over all critical resources, and decide the fate of the world within a closed circle,” Lieutenant General Budanov stresses.

Earlier, UK Defence Journal reported that the US deployed nuclear weapons on British soil for the first time since at least 2008 amid Russia’s aggression. Several B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs have been transferred from the US Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk.

During the Cold War, US nuclear arsenals were stationed at this base, but they were withdrawn in 2008 as part of nuclear disarmament efforts across Europe.

A fire at a Russian military-linked refinery broke out overnight on 22 July after Ukrainian drones targeted industrial sites in Russia’s Samara Oblast about 1,000 km from Ukraine. The targeted facility was the Novokuybyshevsk Petrochemical Company, one of Russia’s largest producers in the petrochemical and organic synthesis sectors. The facility plays a role in Russia’s weapons production by supplying raw materials used in artillery shells, aviation bombs, and other munitions.

Ukrainian drones hit explosives-linked chemical plant in Samara

Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ reported that the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces’ attack targeted the Novokuybyshevsk Petrochemical Company, which operates facilities producing chemicals such as benzene, acetone, phenol, and olefins. The Russian news Telegram channel Astra confirmed that drones hit the Novokuybyshevsk refinery, a Rosneft-owned site producing over 20 fuel types, including high-grade jet fuel and automotive oils.

Astra said that following the strike, a fire broke out at the facility and was later extinguished. Samara Oblast authorities acknowledged an attempted attack and claimed that several drones were shot down, while also imposing temporary mobile internet restrictions to assist military efforts in countering UAVs.

Drones target Russian airbase used for Shahed launches

Late on 21 July, Astra reported drone strikes on the Millerovo military airfield in Rostov Oblast. The airbase is frequently used to launch Shahed-type drones toward Ukrainian territory. The Iranian-designed Shahed drones can carry up to 90 kg of explosives, and Russia has been widely using them in its daily attacks against Ukrainian civilians.

All it takes is one FPV drone, and old North Korean iron blows up like fireworks. The outdated multiple rocket launch systems that North Korea has supplied to Russia have proven fatally vulnerable to Ukrainian FPV drones, Business Insider reports. 

Ukrainian drones don’t just hit targets. They target loaded munitions directly in open launch tubes, causing explosions, fires, and catastrophic damage.

According to the military, the 429th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems Achilles launched a drone at a North Korean 107mm Type-75 launcher when it was already loaded. The strike triggered a chain reaction — missile explosions, fire, debris.

The Type-75 is Pyongyang’s version of the Chinese Type-63, equipped with 12 open launch tubes. These old launchers have been spotted on the Russian front for several months now, and they are the ones exploding en masse after drone strikes.

Another case involved the 413th Battalion of Unmanned Systems. In late June, a drone hit one of the munitions in an M1991 launcher. It resulted a premature launch, pierced truck chassis, and a smoke-filled cabin from which soldiers jumped out.

Most Korean weapons are copies of Soviet or Chinese systems that Russia has long used. For example, old BM-21 Grads are also loaded manually and lack drone protection.

In contrast, Western systems like the American M142 HIMARS have protected rocket containers, making the job much harder for kamikaze drones.

While North Korea supplies Russia with outdated systems, militaries around the world are already betting on drones, which are cheap, accurate, and lethally effective.

Rosneft-linked oil payment rules changed after EU sanctions, Bloomberg reports. Mumbai-based Nayara Energy, the Indian refinery part-owned by Rosneft, now demands upfront payment or documentary letters of credit from buyers, showing how far-reaching the latest EU sanctions package is.

Nayara tightens oil deal terms after new EU measures

Nayara Energy Ltd., a key Indian refinery partially owned by Russia’s Rosneft, is now requiring advance payments or documentary letters of credit for upcoming oil shipments. According to Bloomberg, the shift was revealed in a revised tender document for a naphtha cargo scheduled for next month. The previous version of the tender included no such financial requirements. Naphtha is a fraction of crude oil, used for further petrochemical production.

Kpler analyst Zameer Yusof told Bloomberg the move “underscores how far-reaching the latest tranche of EU sanctions are.” He said the advance payment condition likely reflects fears that buyers may back out of deals or that banks could refuse to clear transactions involving sanctioned entities. 

In a weekend statement, Rosneft claimed that the EU’s new measures as “unjustified and illegal.” Meanwhile, Nayara insisted that operations remain normal and said it is “exploring all legal and appropriate avenues” to respond to the situation.

India’s role in Russian crude trade under pressure

India has become one of the largest importers of Russian crude since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As Western buyers turned away, Indian refiners stepped in to process Russian oil, including into diesel and other products that were then exported globally. Until now, Nayara had continued those operations without direct interference from sanctions.

Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover this year’s procurement deficit. During the latest online meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format on 21 July, new Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal addressed partners and called for continued support.

This was the first meeting following Shmyhal’s appointment as Defense Minister, replacing Rustem Umerov. The UK and Germany co-chaired the meeting. Participants included US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and NATO’s new commander in Europe, Alexus Grynkievich.

According to Denys Shmyhal, the meeting was “more technical and coordination-focused,” concentrating on the procurement of American weapons for Ukraine. At the call, he emphasized that Patriot air defense systems and interceptor missiles are “critically important for protecting Ukrainian cities” as Russia escalated its attacks on civilians. 

He paid special attention to financial support: “Ukraine needs $6 billion to cover this year’s procurement deficit. This will enable us to create more FPV drones, more interceptor drones to counter ‘Shahed’ drones, and additional long-range weapons.”

Previously, US President Donald Trump announced that he would impose strict secondary tariffs on Russia and its allies if a peace agreement on Ukraine is not reached within the next 50 days. However, a recent Russian attack serves as an indicator that Moscow is just using this time to kill more Ukrainians. 

The Ukrainian defense minister also stated the need for sustained support in 2026 and for Ukraine’s inclusion in the European SAFE credit program, a “critically important source of funding for next year.”

Although Ukraine is not a formal member of the initiative, in 2025, the EU granted it associate partner status, recognizing Ukraine’s security as integral to that of Europe. This allows Kyiv to participate in joint defense projects and access funding from SAFE’s credit facility, which totals up to €150 billion. 

Beijing threatens to respond following sanctions for cooperation with Russia. The European Union has, for the first time, included Chinese banks and companies in a new sanctions package against Russia for the attack on Ukraine.

Beijing’s reaction was immediate and harsh: “China expresses strong dissatisfaction and resolute protest.”

According to a statement from the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, the Chinese side views the 18th sanctions package as an unfriendly act that violates international law, undermines economic relations with the EU, and threatens financial cooperation.

Four Chinese companies were added to the EU blacklist, including two from Hong Kong, Zhu Jiang Shipmanagement and ACE Electronic HK, as well as Wuhan Global Sensor Technology and Shandong ODES Industry from mainland China. The reason: assistance to Russia in circumventing restrictions, supplying technologies and components that can be used in the production of weapons that kill Ukrainians.

“China calls on the EU to immediately stop its wrongful practice of including Chinese enterprises and financial institutions on sanction lists and will take necessary measures to reliably protect the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies,” the statement said.

China’s outrage coincides with preparations for the 25th anniversary China–EU summit, scheduled for 24 July in Beijing. This is the second consecutive time the summit will not be held in Europe as Xi Jinping refused to travel to Brussels, and instead, European leaders will come to China to discuss the most sensitive issues in bilateral relations.

Despite the pressure, Brussels sends a clear signal: sanctions evasion via third countries, including China, will no longer go unanswered.

Previously, US Army Europe and NATO Allied Forces Supreme Commander General Alexus Grynkewich has warned that American and its European allies likely have only a year and a half to prepare for a potential global military conflict with China and Russia. According to Bild, the two dictatorships may launch a coordinated strike in 2027.

On 21 July, French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot came to Kyiv for a two-day visit. After arriving, he immediately headed to the sites hit during the massive overnight attack on the Lukianivka district.

“Shelters themselves are no longer entirely safe, as the metro station next to me, which serves as a shelter for Kyiv residents, became a target of the attack. It happened at the same time President Zelenskyy, on Saturday morning, declared Ukraine’s readiness to enter new negotiations with Russia,” he emphasized. 

In Kyiv, Foreign Minister Barrot is set to meet with Zelenskyy, new Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, and his counterpart Andrii Sybiha, UkrInform reports. 

During the visit, he will also take part in Ukraine’s Ambassadors Conference and visit the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The facility is still undergoing the restoration of the site after the Russian occupation in 2022 and a Shahed strike, which damaged the protection shield over the plant itself. 

“Our embassy staff, like all Kyiv residents, were forced to seek shelter from 3 AM to 5 AM,” the minister said.

He noted that the wave of attacks struck not only civilian infrastructure but also kindergartens, supermarkets, and residential buildings. Two people were killed in an attack, and a dozen civilians were hospitalized. 

“That’s why the package of mass sanctions adopted at the European level last Thursday is crucial to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin, to raise the cost of this outrageous war, and to compel him to cease fire and engage in talks that will lead to a just and lasting peace,” Barrot stated.

On 18 July, the EU agreed on a new Russia sanctions package, with ambassadors reaching consensus on the bloc’s 18th sanctions round. The round targets key sectors of the Russian economy, including Slovakia and Malta. The restrictions hit energy, the main source of Moscow’s revenues. 

Day 1243

On 20 July, the biggest news comes from Azerbaijan.

Here, the government has arrested Wagner fighters who fought for Russia in Ukraine, directly targeting the Kremlin’s most dangerous organization. It is a bold move that does not just reject Russian influence in the South Caucasus but actively begins to dismantle Moscow’s entire post-Soviet power network.

This is the first time a post-Soviet country has prosecuted its citizens for joining Wagner. The first two mercenaries, Ramil Aliyev and Ismayil Hasanov, had both served time in Russian penal colonies before being recruited into Wagner under Prigozhin’s Project-K and sent to fight in Ukraine. Both men had served time in Russian penal colonies before being recruited under Wagner’s Project-K, a prison pipeline organized by Yevgeny Prigozhin to fuel Russia’s war in Ukraine. The two Azerbaijanis are accused of using firearms and explosives in Ukraine, as well as attempting to recruit others to fight for Wagner.

A court in Baku ordered them detained, applying criminal statutes typically used for mercenary or terror-related offenses. These charges go beyond domestic law; they are a warning to all former Wagner fighters: they will be treated not as veterans, but as war criminals.

The decision to prosecute Wagner fighters comes as part of a broader shift in Azerbaijan’s posture toward Moscow. Rather than quietly distance itself, Baku is now actively targeting Russian influence across multiple fronts: military, political, and informational. The arrests are not just about justice or legality, they are about cutting off Russian leverage. Project-K was one of Wager’s most controversial efforts, blending criminality with state-backed warfare. By going after these individuals now, Azerbaijan is effectively retroactively criminalizing its citizens’ involvement in Russia’s proxy structure.

This legal offensive follows Baku’s decision to label Sputnik-Azerbaijan a Russian intelligence front, accusing its staff of running information warfare campaigns and building pro-Kremlin influence networks inside the country.

While that episode focused on soft power, the Wagner arrests are something different: they mark the beginning of hard legal action against Russian hybrid operatives on Azerbaijani soil. No other country in the region has drawn such a hard legal line, making this a precedent-setting moment.

Diplomatic tensions have escalated in parallel, when a Russian delegation led by Emergency Situations Minister Aleksandr Kurenkov visited Baku in July carrying a diplomatic message from Vladimir Putin, President Illham Aliyev refused to meet them. That snub was deliberate and deeply symbolic, in the post-Soviet space, as Russia has traditionally relied on in-person meetings and backchannel diplomacy to maintain leverage.

But this time, Azerbaijan shut the door; the refusal to receive Putin’s envoy suggests that Baku no longer sees Russian diplomacy as useful or necessary. It also signals that Azerbaijan is prepared to let relations deteriorate further if Moscow keeps pushing.

In the meantime, Azerbaijan is strengthening ties with Ukraine in both practical and symbolic ways. Baku recently sent specialized demining equipment to Ukrainian forces, support that may appear modest on paper, but carries real strategic weight. It directly contributes to Ukraine’s ability to clear liberated areas, protect civilians, and prepare for counteroffensive operations. Azerbaijan is openly siding with Ukraine on key security issues, while simultaneously targeting Russia’s covert networks at home. And it is doing so without Western prompting, showing that Russia’s isolation is becoming self-reinforcing.

Behind all of this lies a deeper shift; Azerbaijan is no longer trying to balance between East and West. It is picking sides, and doing so with surgical precision. The prosecutions, media clampdown, and diplomatic snubs are part of a coherent policy aimed at dismantling Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. For Moscow, this is not just a diplomatic headache; it is a strategic defeat, its once loyal partner is now helping Ukraine, rejecting backchannel envoys, and arresting Wagner fighters as criminals.

Overall, the crackdown on Wagner is not just a domestic legal move; it reshapes the regional landscape. By treating Russian mercenaries as criminals rather than veterans, Baku is signaling to the rest of the post-Soviet world that the old rules of Russian dominance no longer apply. Russia’s soft and hard power tools are being dismantled from within, and Azerbaijan is leading the way.

Today, the biggest news comes from Azerbaijan.

Here, the government has arrested Wagner fighters who fought for Russia in Ukraine, directly targeting the Kremlin’s most dangerous organization. It is a bold move that does not just reject Russian influence in the South Caucasus but actively begins to dismantle Moscow’s entire post-Soviet power network.

This is the first time a post-Soviet country has prosecuted its citizens for joining Wagner. The first two mercenaries, Ramil Aliyev and Ismayil Hasanov, had both served time in Russian penal colonies before being recruited into Wagner under Prigozhin’s Project-K and sent to fight in Ukraine. Both men had served time in Russian penal colonies before being recruited under Wagner’s Project-K, a prison pipeline organized by Yevgeny Prigozhin to fuel Russia’s war in Ukraine. The two Azerbaijanis are accused of using firearms and explosives in Ukraine, as well as attempting to recruit others to fight for Wagner.

A court in Baku ordered them detained, applying criminal statutes typically used for mercenary or terror-related offenses. These charges go beyond domestic law; they are a warning to all former Wagner fighters: they will be treated not as veterans, but as war criminals.

The decision to prosecute Wagner fighters comes as part of a broader shift in Azerbaijan’s posture toward Moscow. Rather than quietly distance itself, Baku is now actively targeting Russian influence across multiple fronts: military, political, and informational. The arrests are not just about justice or legality, they are about cutting off Russian leverage. Project-K was one of Wager’s most controversial efforts, blending criminality with state-backed warfare. By going after these individuals now, Azerbaijan is effectively retroactively criminalizing its citizens’ involvement in Russia’s proxy structure.

This legal offensive follows Baku’s decision to label Sputnik-Azerbaijan a Russian intelligence front, accusing its staff of running information warfare campaigns and building pro-Kremlin influence networks inside the country.

While that episode focused on soft power, the Wagner arrests are something different: they mark the beginning of hard legal action against Russian hybrid operatives on Azerbaijani soil. No other country in the region has drawn such a hard legal line, making this a precedent-setting moment.

Diplomatic tensions have escalated in parallel, when a Russian delegation led by Emergency Situations Minister Aleksandr Kurenkov visited Baku in July carrying a diplomatic message from Vladimir Putin, President Illham Aliyev refused to meet them. That snub was deliberate and deeply symbolic, in the post-Soviet space, as Russia has traditionally relied on in-person meetings and backchannel diplomacy to maintain leverage.

But this time, Azerbaijan shut the door; the refusal to receive Putin’s envoy suggests that Baku no longer sees Russian diplomacy as useful or necessary. It also signals that Azerbaijan is prepared to let relations deteriorate further if Moscow keeps pushing.

In the meantime, Azerbaijan is strengthening ties with Ukraine in both practical and symbolic ways. Baku recently sent specialized demining equipment to Ukrainian forces, support that may appear modest on paper, but carries real strategic weight. It directly contributes to Ukraine’s ability to clear liberated areas, protect civilians, and prepare for counteroffensive operations. Azerbaijan is openly siding with Ukraine on key security issues, while simultaneously targeting Russia’s covert networks at home. And it is doing so without Western prompting, showing that Russia’s isolation is becoming self-reinforcing.

Behind all of this lies a deeper shift; Azerbaijan is no longer trying to balance between East and West. It is picking sides, and doing so with surgical precision. The prosecutions, media clampdown, and diplomatic snubs are part of a coherent policy aimed at dismantling Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus. For Moscow, this is not just a diplomatic headache; it is a strategic defeat, its once loyal partner is now helping Ukraine, rejecting backchannel envoys, and arresting Wagner fighters as criminals.

Overall, the crackdown on Wagner is not just a domestic legal move; it reshapes the regional landscape. By treating Russian mercenaries as criminals rather than veterans, Baku is signaling to the rest of the post-Soviet world that the old rules of Russian dominance no longer apply. Russia’s soft and hard power tools are being dismantled from within, and Azerbaijan is leading the way.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

New round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could take place in Istanbul this week, tentatively scheduled for 23-24 July, Independent Türkçe reported on 21 July.

Independent Türkçe reported, citing diplomatic sources, that “international diplomatic meetings will take place in Istanbul this week.”

“In addition to negotiations with European countries regarding Iran’s nuclear program, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are also expected in Istanbul this week,” the report said.

The parties have not disclosed precise information about the venue, time and level of delegations. However, the meeting reportedly will likely take place on 23-24 July.

The sides are expected to focus on humanitarian aid, prisoner exchanges, critical infrastructure security and the situation in border areas. Work is currently underway to determine the meeting location, develop security protocols and logistical preparation. The negotiations will be held behind closed doors, with the public informed through written statements, according to the report.

The potential talks follow recent developments in Ukraine’s leadership structure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed former Defense Minister Rustem Umerov as Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council on Friday.

Speaking about Umerov’s tasks in this position, Zelenskyy said it was necessary to “intensify the negotiation track” with Russia. “The implementation of agreements from the second meeting in Istanbul is currently underway. More dynamics are needed in this process,” he said.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia supports adding “more dynamics” to the negotiation process with Ukraine.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on 18 July, during which they discussed the possibility of holding a new round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul.

On 19 July, Zelenskyy announced that NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov had proposed a meeting with the Russian side for the following week, emphasizing that Ukraine was ready for a leader-level meeting.

Previous meetings between Russian and Ukrainian delegations took place on 16 May and 2 June in Istanbul. Istanbul has previously hosted critical diplomatic processes including Iran nuclear negotiations, Russia-Ukraine peace contacts and international meetings on Syria.

A former high-ranking Ukrainian police official has been found dead under mysterious circumstances in the same Spanish residential complex where Russian defector pilot Maxim Kuzminov was assassinated earlier this year, El Español reports.

Ihor Hrushevskyi, 61, a former senior official in Ukraine’s Interior Ministry’s Department for Combating Organized Crime, was discovered floating in a community pool at the Cala Alta residential complex in Villajoyosa on June 29. The death occurred just 503 days after Kuzminov’s murder at the same location.

According to El Español, Hrushevskyi was found “face down and without pulse” in what “appeared to be a drowning” around 9:30 pm. A Ukrainian neighbor and young people passing through the common areas discovered the body and attempted CPR, but “could not save his life,” the publication states.

The circumstances surrounding Hrushevskyi’s death have raised suspicions among residents. While the Ukrainian showed no signs of violence, he was bleeding from one ear, leading some to suspect a stroke. Others question how someone could drown in a pool that “does not exceed 1.50 meters in depth.”

Hrushevskyi had recently purchased an apartment in block 1 of the complex and was renovating it. His background in law enforcement remained largely unknown to neighbors – of approximately 20 residents consulted by El Español, “only one knew his name” and that he worked in organized crime fighting.

Ukrainian legal records show Hrushevskyi served as head and authorized representative of the Interior Ministry’s Department for Combating Organized Crime in the Cherkasy and Kirovograd oblasts in 1993. The department was officially dissolved in 2015 as part of police reforms aimed at “cutting corrupt practices” and aligning with European standards.

The location adds an unsettling dimension to the death. Kuzminov, the Russian helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine with a sophisticated Mi-8 combat helicopter in exchange for 500,000 euros, was “shot dead on 13 February 2024” in the complex’s garage. The pilot had been living under a false identity when Russian Foreign Intelligence Service agents tracked him down.

Of the “more than 3,000 kilometers separating Alicante from Ukraine,” both deaths occurred within meters of each other – “one in the garage and another in the pool,” El Español notes. Some residents fear this proximity may not be coincidental, particularly given that Russian President Vladimir Putin “used to vacation in his luxury refuge in Altea Hills” before the war and has contacts who “know the area perfectly.”

The Wall Street Journal later reported that the killers received payment from Russian officials in Vienna.

Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 224 targets during the Russian assault overnight into 21 July.

According to the Ukriane’s air defense forces, an additional 203 drones failed to reach their intended targets. The miitary confirmed 23 strike drones hit targets at 3 locations, with debris from destroyed drones falling at 12 locations.

The overnight assault represented another large-scale combined air attack by Russia on Ukraine, with occupying forces deploying strike drones and missiles of various types. Explosions were heard across multiple oblasts throughout the night. Among other oblasts, Kyiv and Ivano-Frankivsk faced the heaviest attack.

Four people, including one child, were injured in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during Russia’s overnight rocket and drone attack on 21 July, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (DSNS). Residential buildings were damaged.

The attack on Ivano-Frankivsk was particularly severe. Mayor Ruslan Martsinkiv described the strikes as “the most large-scale” since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, stating there were “very many” hits on the city.

Beyond the residential casualties, fires erupted across multiple locations in the oblast. In the Gorodenkivka territorial community of Kolomyia district, a fire broke out in an agricultural building, which has been extinguished with no casualties reported. In Ivano-Frankivsk city center, emergency services extinguished fires at garages and vehicles in an open parking area covering 220 square meters, as well as industrial and warehouse facilities spanning 300 square meters.

Kyiv bore significant damage from the attack. One person died and six others were injured in the capital, including a 15-year-old girl, reports the National Police of Ukraine.

In Solomianskyi district, a man died. In Darnytskyi district, five people aged 36 to 55 years received shrapnel injuries. Among them is a 15-year-old girl. In Shevchenkivskyi district, an elderly woman was hospitalized.

The capital sustained widespread damage to residential buildings, a kindergarten, a supermarket, small architectural forms, garages, transport, warehouse facilities, and the ground section of a metro station. Destruction and debris were recorded in Holosiivskyi, Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, Obolonskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Solomianskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts.

The blast wave also affected a police crew responding to an emergency call.

Metro station “Lukianivska” in Kyiv temporarily suspended passenger service due to damage to its ground section caused by the Russian shelling. Traffic was blocked on several streets in Darnytskyi and Shevchenkivskyi districts following the attack.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin shows no intention of abandoning his objectives in Ukraine or ending the war. Even under the threat of new sanctions, he appears ready to go to extremes, Foreign Affairs writes. 

Meanwhile, Russia itself is entering a full-fledged economic crisis, something even the Kremlin is now publicly admitting. However, analysts are convinced that Putin still has tools to continue the war, the ones he has so far chosen not to use.

In particular, he could launch a brutal mobilization campaign with harsh penalties for those who refuse to serve. Experts note this would shatter the myth of stability that Putin has carefully built over the years, but destroying Ukraine still takes priority for him.

They point out that after 25 years in power, Putin has created an almost sinister calm in Russia: there is no meaningful political opposition, and public criticism of the government is virtually nonexistent. As a result, Russians are expected to adapt to the new reality.

“Russia’s rise to greatness may be Sisyphean for Putin, but he will go to extreme lengths to avoid defeat. In Ukraine, Putin will risk everything,” the report says. 

Still, the situation does not yet look catastrophic for Ukraine. The territories captured by Russia are not strategically vital for Ukraine’s survival, and all major cities remain out of reach for the Russian military.

Even if Trump ultimately fails to follow through on his own ultimatum, Ukraine continues to receive growing support from Europe.

The full-scale war in Ukraine will continue beyond 2025, said Robert Brovdi, also known as Madiar, the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems, during the LANDEURO conference in Germany’s Wiesbaden, UNIAN reports.

“We don’t see the end of the war coming tomorrow — or likely even this year. Putin is sending more infantry than we can destroy,” Madiar stated.

According to him, the main threats include massive Shahed drone attacks, Ukraine’s shortage of mobilization resources, and the enemy’s numerical advantage.

“Everyone who wanted to fight is already fighting,” he noted.

However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already working on solutions: plans include replacing infantry with ground-based drones and building a multi-level “drone wall” to intercept everything coming from Russia.

“This wall, taller than the Great Wall of China, is already being built,” the commander concluded.

Brovdi became the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems in June. After taking the position, he announced he would work on the new Drone Line project, a 10-15 kilometer “kill zone” where enemy forces cannot advance without suffering significant losses.

His program also includes:

• Increasing domestic production of munitions and creating a unified supply depot for critical components such as Starlink, batteries, electronic warfare systems, and FPV parts;
• Deploying ground robotic platforms for the logistics of munitions, drones, and peripheral equipment;
• Launching a unified recruitment campaign and establishing a dedicated training network for drone pilots and operators of various systems.

Explosions erupted across Moscow and Rostov oblasts in the early hours of 19 July. Local reports described drone flyover sounds, fires, damaged infrastructure, and halted train services following a large-scale drone attack. However, no reports confirm any damage to key military or military-industrial infrastructure. 

Drone attack on Moscow

In Moscow Oblast, residents of Dmitrov and Zelenograd heard multiple explosions overnight. Russian news Telegram channel Astra posted footage showing burning debris in a field near Dmitrov. Locals wrote that “something fell in the field and exploded.” Messages in community chats described blasts from several locations within the Dmitrov district.

Astra quoted local officials saying a drone had been shot down, and its wreckage damaged a high-voltage power line in the area. Mikhail Shulavov, acting head of the Dmitrov district, confirmed the fall of debris, noted there were no injuries, and said repair crews were already fixing the line.

Pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Mash also reported explosions in Mozhaisk and Dmitrov. Baza, another Telegram channel, said six explosions occurred in Zelenograd.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobianin claimed Russian air defenses shot down 14 drones targeting the Russian capital. 

Drone attack on Rostov, and railway disruptions

In Rostov Oblast, acting head Yurii Sliusar claimed fires in Kamensk-Shakhtynskyi. Falling drone debris allegedly set multiple detached houses on fire and ostensibly injured one person.

Sliusar added that a transformer caught fire in Kamenskyi Raion, disabling a high-voltage line. As a result, five settlements lost power. According to Sliusar, about 2,000 people live in the blackout zone.

The drone strikes triggered major rail disruptions in Rostov Oblast. Passenger service was halted after the attack disabled power infrastructure on the Lykhaya–Zamchalovo railway segment or the Russian Railway (RZhD).

Astra cited passengers at Rostov station claiming they sat for hours in trains without ventilation or air conditioning. One said that “everything is immobilized” after a strong strike at Lykhaya station.

Russian Railways later confirmed that over 50 long-distance trains were delayed. Several regional electric trains were also canceled. Delays ranged from 1.5 to 3.5 hours. Later reports from RZhD said train service on the damaged line had resumed.

Drone strike reported in occupied Tokmak

Ukrainian Telegram channel Supernova+ posted footage of a fire in Russian-occupied Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The caption reads:

“In Tokmak … after a UAV attack there is a healthy glow.”

Fire at military base in Rostov-on-Don

On the evening of 18 July, a fire broke out at a military facility in central Rostov-on-Don. Astra verified the location as military unit 74330 on Krasnoarmeiska Street, near Sokolova Avenue. 

Local media had earlier reported a fire in the same area.

As the EU ramps up economic pressure, the Kremlin scrambles to downplay sanctions by pushing claims of immunity and resilience. But behind the bravado, top Russian officials are quietly conceding the growing toll on the country’s economy, according to the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian officials claim immunity while signs of economic damage emerge

ISW reported on 18 July that Russian officials are continuing to falsely claim that the European Union’s newest sanctions have no significant impact on the Russian economy. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov alleged for no reason that the EU’s sanctions are illegal, and insisted Russia had already adapted to life under restrictive measures. He stated that the Kremlin would analyze the effects of the latest sanctions package and minimize their impact. Peskov also stated that the sanctions ostensibly ultimately harm those who imposed them.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev responded to the EU’s newest package by asserting that Russia’s stance remains unchanged and that the country’s economy will endure. He went further, threatening to increase strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities — which has already been happening for years. Medvedev declared that Russia must learn to “hate” the EU and what he described as its “Russophobia” as much as its ancestors did. 

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Putin’s Special Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries, echoed similar showy defiance. He claimed that the sanctions hurt Europe more than Russia by closing Russian markets to European businesses and disrupting the continent’s energy supply. Meanwhile, Head of the Russian State Duma Committee on Financial Markets Anatoly Aksakov dismissed the new financial sanctions as insignificant, calling them “just a fluctuation in the air,” since Russian banks were already operating under EU restrictions.

Top Russian ministers admit critical sanctions impact

Despite these bold public statements, ISW highlighted that some senior Russian officials are now quietly admitting that sanctions are taking a toll on the economy. The Moscow Times reported on 17 July that Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev recently told the Russian Federation Council that Western sanctions are making it difficult for Russian oil companies to obtain parts needed to repair refineries.

Explore further

NYT: Putin believes Ukraine’s collapse is near — and he’s acting like it

Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina openly stated on 19 June that Russia has “exhausted many of its free resources” since the start of the full-scale invasion and must now search for a new growth model. Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov also acknowledged during SPIEF that the Russian economy stands “on the brink of recession.”

Kremlin relies on evasive schemes to soften sanctions blow

ISW underscored that sanctions evasion through the People’s Republic of China and other third-party networks is now a key pillar of Moscow’s strategy. The Kremlin has built a network of actors designed to bypass Western restrictions, and has started reconfiguring its economic policies and business models to survive sanctions in the long run. However, ISW wrote, hinting on Washington’s hesitation to adopt news sanctions against Russia:

“The EU’s newest sanctions are a positive step, but wider Western compliance and enforcement are necessary to inflict maximum economic pressure on Russia.“

EU’s latest sanctions package delivers economic strike

The EU’s 18th sanctions package, approved on 18 July by the European Council, sharply undercuts Russian oil revenues. It slashes the oil price cap to $47.60 per barrel, bans Nord Stream pipeline transactions, and blacklists 105 more shadow fleet tankers—bringing the total to 444. It also targets entities tied to Rosneft and ends Czechia’s exemption for Russian oil.

Refined products from Russian crude are banned unless processed in select Western countries. Though the Kremlin budgeted for losses, these sanctions are expected to cut far deeper—threatening the third of federal revenue tied to oil.

The UK hits a Russian military intelligence unit behind the destruction of the Mariupol Drama Theater with the largest-ever sanctions package in history. It is also responsible for prolonged malicious hybrid operations worldwide. 

“In 2022, Unit 26165, sanctioned today, conducted online reconnaissance to help target missile strikes against Mariupol, including the strike that destroyed the Mariupol Theatre, where hundreds of civilians, including children, were murdered,” says the UK government. 

The restrictions hit three units of Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) and its 18 officers accountable for conducting a sustained campaign of cyberattacks over many years, including attacks inside the UK. 

“The GRU routinely uses cyber and information operations to sow chaos, division and disorder in Ukraine and across the world with devastating real-world consequences,” the UK government said.

Sanctions also target GRU officers responsible for hacking a device of Yulia Skripal, a daughter of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, using the malicious software known as X-Agent. This happened five years prior to the failed attempt by GRU officers to assassinate them with the deadly nerve agent “Novichok” in Salisbury.

Russian operatives have also attempted to disrupt UK media outlets, telecom providers, political and democratic institutions, as well as critical energy infrastructure.

Russia has begun using artificial intelligence-based bots for spreading propaganda on social media, especially on Telegram, according to a joint investigation by OpenMinds and the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab).

Researchers have uncovered over 3,600 bots that posted more than 316,000 AI-generated comments in Telegram channels linked to Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories. Another three million messages were spread in broader Ukrainian and Russian Telegram groups. These bots used human-like language, adapting replies to the context of each conversation to promote pro-Kremlin narratives and undermine Ukraine.

Unlike traditional bots that spam identical messages, these accounts simulate real users. They reply directly to other users, shift tone and content, and tailor messages to appear authentic. On average, a bot posts 84 comments per day, with some exceeding 1,000 daily.

The goal is not just to spread fake news, but to create the illusion of widespread public support for the occupation regime, filling comment sections with praise for Russia and attacks on Ukraine. In an environment of information isolation, this becomes a potent tool of mass manipulation.

AI-generated bots often give themselves away through:

• absurd usernames,
• unnatural or AI-generated profile pictures,
• overly formal or awkward phrasing,
• and highly diverse language: one in three comments is uniquely generated by AI.

Even when bot accounts are deleted, their influence lingers. Locals repeatedly exposed to these comments may perceive Kremlin propaganda as the majority opinion, especially in regions where Ukrainian news is inaccessible.

Russian Shaheds now carry napalm and break through Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. Moscow continues to upgrade its Shahed attack drones, enhancing their warheads, engines, and protection, says Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, a military expert, in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

“Recently, we discovered a fluid in a Shahed’s warhead that resembled napalm. It not only spreads but keeps burning even in sand. This is terrorism, when drones attack residential areas with incendiary mixtures that cannot be extinguished,” explains Beskrestnov.

According to him, such weapons are absolutely inappropriate for warfare in large cities. Russia is also using at least 4–5 different types of warheads on Shahed drones, expanding their operational roles, from striking industrial targets to deliberate terror against civilians.

Flash reports that Russian engineers have upgraded Shahed engines, allowing them to reach speeds of up to 220 km/h in favorable weather conditions. However, the expert notes that this speed increase is not a decisive advantage: “Globally, whether it’s 180 or 200 km/h. It doesn’t change much.”

The most serious threat now comes from the improved Shahed defense systems against Ukrainian electronic warfare.

“We are increasingly seeing the same target being hit repeatedly. This indicates electronic warfare’s failure to disrupt navigation,” says Beskrestnov.

According to him, Chinese reinforced antennas have been found among the drone wreckage, successfully breaking through Ukrainian electronic warfare defenses.

“Our electronic warfare systems simply aren’t designed to handle such a number of elements. That’s why urgent modernization is needed,” the expert emphasizes.

Beskrestnov separately emphasized that electronic warfare systems do not physically destroy drones but only help protect targets and give air defense systems time to strike them.

The Kremlin has once again erupted in threats and vitriol. Following the adoption of the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Moscow’s aggression, Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian former president, lashed out, calling European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen a “disgusting old hag” and branding Europeans as “imbeciles.”

“European imbeciles have approved the 18th package of sanctions against our country. There’s no point in writing that it will change Russia’s stance any more than the previous seventeen did,” Medvedev said on social media.

EU agrees on new Russia sanctions package targeting energy and finance

He believes the Russian economy would endure and stated that the destruction of Ukraine would continue.

“Strikes on targets in the so-called Ukraine, including Kyiv, will be carried out with increasing force,” he stressed.

Medvedev then escalated his tirade, launching insults at EU nations including Poland, Germany, France, the Baltic states, and the UK. He urged maximum detachment from the EU, which he claimed is now home to “Brits mired in their own shit.”

He went further, stating that Russians should learn to hate Europeans, just as their ancestors once did.

“Hatred is the most powerful weapon, allowing us to move most effectively toward its opposite—love. Naturally, toward those who deserve it,” he claimed.

Von der Leyen received particular scorn, with Medvedev attempting to mock her medical background.

“I’m not sure she even knows where the heart is. Though it seems she’s always thought with the part of her body she used during her failed medical career,” he said. 

Medvedev’s outburst once again illustrates the tone of official Russian rhetoric amid intensified missile strikes on Ukrainian civilians, Russia’s answer to US President Donald Trump’s recent peace efforts.

Ukrainian pilots to gain greater chances in the sky due to Paris’s support. After an hour-long meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on 18 July, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that France is ready to continue training Mirage fighter jet pilots on its own territory.

“I want to specifically highlight our agreement on Mirage pilot training: France is ready to accept additional pilots for training on additional aircraft,” said Zelenskyy.

Among other key issues was the strengthening of Ukraine’s air defense system. The two leaders discussed the supply of missiles for modern SAMP/T systems and the launch of a joint project to fund interceptor drones. Zelenskyy noted that relevant decisions will be prepared at the level of both countries’ defense ministries.

The Ukrainian president also thanked France for its active role in promoting the EU’s 18th package of sanctions and confirmed that Kyiv and Washington are working together so that “Russia feels truly global pressure.”

The EU agreed on a new package after the bloc’s ambassadors reached consensus on restrictions targeting key sectors of the Russian economy. Malta and Slovakia reportedly lifted their vetoes after receiving critical assurances. 

The new Russia sanctions package will include a formal ban on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said the bloc would also reduce the oil price cap as part of efforts to cut the Kremlin’s war revenues.

The EU has agreed on a new Russia sanctions package, with ambassadors reaching consensus on the bloc’s 18th sanctions round targeting key sectors of the Russian economy, Suspilne reports. Malta and Slovakia reportedly lifted their vetoes after receiving critical assurances, clearing the way for formal adoption at the EU Council’s meeting later today, 18 July.

Malta and Slovakia lift vetoes, clearing way for approval

According to Suspilne, Malta withdrew its objection after receiving written guarantees from the European Commission. The country wanted confirmation that the proposed oil price cap would not strengthen Russia’s shadow fleet, a concern tied to Malta’s large shipping sector.

Pro-Russian Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico announced earlier on Facebook that Slovakia had also dropped its veto. His government received EU guarantees related to gas prices and supply stability. Fico, however, underlined that Slovakia would never support ending Russian gas imports after 1 January 2028.

Both countries had previously blocked consensus on the package, which was introduced by the European Commission in June. 

Package includes pipeline bans and price cap changes

The new Russia sanctions package will include a formal ban on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said the bloc will also reduce the oil price cap as part of efforts to cut the Kremlin’s war revenues.

Kallas called the deal “one of the strongest” sanctions packages yet, noting it is designed to shrink Russia’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. She also confirmed that the EU will continue to increase the costs of aggression for Moscow.

Germany and Sweden requested that the package be placed on the Council’s agenda under “Other business.” Once the General Affairs Council formally approves it, the sanctions will become legally binding.

Shadow fleet, banks, and drone tech also targeted

The package includes sanctions on 105 ships from Russia’s shadow fleet and on the entities enabling their operations. A registry of ship flags will be introduced to identify and track these vessels, which are used to obscure the origin of Russian oil.

In addition, 22 Russian banks will face new financial restrictions aimed at cutting their access to international funding. Brussels will also ban the export of European technologies used in Russian drone production.

Kallas confirmed that Chinese banks helping Russia evade restrictions are among the foreign entities targeted. The EU plans to limit their ability to support Russian financial transactions that bypass sanctions.

Rosneft refinery in India and indoctrination networks included

For the first time, the EU will sanction a foreign-based refinery—India’s largest Rosneft facility—due to its role in processing and moving Russian oil. The package also targets individuals and organizations involved in indoctrinating Ukrainian children in Russian-occupied territories.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys welcomed the agreement, stating that the combination of shipping, energy, and financial measures would ensure Russia remains on track to lose access to “blood money.” He also urged the US Senate to pass its own Russia sanctions legislation to align with EU efforts.