Vladimir Putin is facing deepening strategic isolation as Israel’s military offensive against Iran threatens to unravel a key alliance underpinning Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, writes Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Telegraph.

In a sharply worded column, Coughlin argues that “Putin’s primary concern… will be the impact that Israel’s continuing assault on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure will have on Tehran’s ability to continue its support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.”

Since last week, Israeli forces have launched targeted strikes against Iranian missile and drone production sites — the same systems that have been regularly supplied to Russia since the summer of 2022. According to Coughlin, the Israeli campaign “appears to have paid dividends,” with a notable drop in attacks originating from Iran.

A strategic blow to Moscow

The deepening Russia-Iran relationship, sealed in January with a 20-year strategic pact, has been critical to sustaining Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. In exchange for military hardware from Tehran, Moscow had promised to boost Iran’s air defenses and air force capabilities. But Coughlin notes that this “has clearly failed to deter Israel from launching its military offensive.”

As Iranian military capacity is degraded, Putin risks losing a crucial source of support. “If the Iranians are unable to provide sufficient weaponry for their own military campaign against Israel,” Coughlin writes, “they will be in no position to support Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.”

Regional influence under threat

The ramifications extend beyond Ukraine. With Syria’s Assad regime reportedly collapsed and now “languishing in exile in Moscow,” Russia’s Middle East strategy appears to be unraveling. Coughlin suggests Putin’s broader effort to project power in the region is now in jeopardy.

The article also highlights the precariousness of Russia’s position within the informal alliance of authoritarian states — Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia — warning that Israel’s attacks could weaken their interconnected military and economic interests.

Coughlin concludes: “Putin’s standing in the region is in danger of precipitous collapse.”

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed on June 13 that its aerospace commander, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, was killed in an Israeli air strike on a command facility, according to the Times of Israel.

Hajizadeh was sanctioned by the European Union in 2022 for overseeing Tehran's supply of Shahed-type drones to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine, which have become a key component of Moscow's war against Ukraine.

He played a central role in advancing Iran's drone and missile capabilities, meeting with then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in 2023 to showcase Iranian weapons.

The Israeli operation, described as "preemptive," involved 200 aircraft and the dropping of 330 munitions, targeting the country's nuclear program and killing top military officials.

Hajizadeh is also known for his role in the January 2020 downing of a Ukrainian civilian aircraft, which Iran later admitted was mistakenly shot down amid tensions with the U.S. All 176 people on board were killed.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry issued a statement on June 13 expressing concern over the fallout from the Israeli operation but underscored that "the Iranian regime supports Russia in its illegal war of aggression" and supplies Moscow with "weapons to kill Ukrainians."

Along with North Korea, Iran has been a key ally to Russia during its full-scale war against Ukraine, providing thousands of Shahed strike drones and short-range ballistic missiles.

The drones, cheap and packed with explosives, have become a central weapon in Russia's aerial assaults on Ukraine since their introduction in late 2022.

Known for flying long distances before slamming into targets, they are now mass-produced by Russia and launched in near-nightly waves to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

The Israeli strike took place amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, as well as U.S. negotiations with Tehran regarding its nuclear program. The Trump administration has acknowledged it knew about the operation in advance but denied any involvement.

Kyiv warned of the potential global repercussions of the strike, noting that regional instability could severely impact international security and financial markets, particularly oil.

Crude prices surged more than 10% following the attack, boosting revenues for Moscow, whose economy is heavily reliant on energy exports.

Russia has condemned Israel's attacks as "unprovoked aggression" and a violation of the U.N. Charter.

After Israel’s strikes, Ukraine says Iran ‘source of problems’ but warns against destabilization

Ukraine on June 13 expressed concern over the security situation in the Middle East after Israeli air strikes against Iran, but stressed that Tehran remains a “source of problems” in the region “and beyond.”

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Iran launched over 100 drones against Israel, all of which were intercepted outside of Israeli airspace, Ynet News reported on June 13, citing Israeli military spokesperson Effie Defrin.

The drone attack follows heavy air strikes launched by Israel against Iran, targeting the country's nuclear program and reportedly killing Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and other top officials.

Israel said it had deployed some 200 aircraft in its "preemptive" attack overnight on June 13, dropping 330 munitions over 100 sites.

The full extent of the consequences was not immediately clear. Multiple explosions were reported in Tehran as videos posted on social media purportedly show fire burning in multiple locations of the Iranian capital.

Open-source intelligence researchers have shared alleged footage of Shahed kamikaze drones flying in the direction of Israel. Tehran has provided thousands of these drones to Russia for use against Ukrainian cities.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to enact "severe punishment" in response to the attack, accusing the United States for "also (being) responsible for the dangerous consequences of this reckless escalation."

In a statement released by the State Department, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the United States was not involved in the strikes on Iran, calling it a "unilateral action."

The U.S. Embassy in Israel instructed its employees and family members to take shelter until further notice.

Jordan has announced it had closed its airspace "as a precaution against any risks resulting from the regional escalation."

The attacks are taking place amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In April 2024, Iran launched 170 drones and 150 missiles against Israel, with an overwhelming majority being shot down outside of Israel with the assistance of Western partners.

The attack was a response to Israel’s strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1 as part of the broader Israel-Hamas war.

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Israeli forces launched “preemptive strikes” on Iran overnight on June 13, tarting Iran’s nuclear program, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an overnight address.

The Kyiv IndependentLucy Pakhnyuk

Russia will establish a dedicated military branch for unmanned systems, President Vladimir Putin said on June 12 during a meeting on the state armament program.

"We have accumulated a great deal of experience to create this branch of the armed forces," Putin said, noting the move includes personnel training, manufacturing, and deployment of modern equipment.

The announcement comes as both Russia and Ukraine increasingly use drones for strike missions and surveillance. Unmanned systems have become central to battlefield operations and enabling deep strikes.

Ukraine established its own Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) in June 2024 to formalize and scale its drone-based operations on the battlefield. The USF has since launched hundreds of deep strikes into Russian territory and worked to integrate drone technology across combat units.

Russia, meanwhile, has ramped up drone production over the past year, launching waves of Iranian-designed Shahed-type suicide drones in near-daily attacks on Ukrainian cities.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 27 that Moscow intends to produce up to 500 drones daily, with Russian manufacturers gearing up to manufacture 300-350 drones each day.

Russian drone production has been supported by a steady flow of components from China and a workforce that includes teenagers and foreign laborers from African countries.

The Kremlin's move mirrors Kyiv's earlier military reform and signals Russia's recognition of drones as a critical pillar of modern warfare.

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Russian losses in Ukraine hit a massive, and grim milestone on June 12 — 1 million Russian soldiers killed or wounded during the 39-month-long full-scale war, according to figures from Kyiv. Although hugely symbolic, the number is unlikely to prompt a change in tactics from Moscow as it gears up for

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Russia has agreed to help North Korea begin domestic production of Shahed-type "kamikaze" drones, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with the War Zone magazine published on June 9.

Shahed drones could enable North Korea to strike targets across South Korea, potentially overwhelming air defenses, and could also assist Russia in its war against Ukraine, the War Zone wrote.

Budanov said Moscow and Pyongyang reached an agreement to start organizing the manufacturing of Iranian-designed Garpiya and Geran drones — the latter being Russia's designation for the Shahed-136 loitering munition — on North Korean territory.

"It's more about technology transfer," Budanov told the outlet, warning that the development could upset the military balance on the Korean Peninsula. "They just agreed to start the organization of this production."

Shahed drones, cheap and packed with explosives, have become a central weapon in Russia's aerial assaults on Ukraine since their introduction in late 2022.

Known for flying long distances before slamming into targets, they are now mass-produced by Russia and launched in near-nightly waves to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

The news comes amid deepening military ties between Russia and North Korea. According to a May 29 report by the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team (MSMT), Pyongyang shipped to Russia up to 9 million artillery shells and at least 100 ballistic missiles in 2024 alone.

North Korea's involvement in the war expanded in fall 2024, when it deployed thousands of troops to Russia's western border to help fend off a large-scale Ukrainian incursion. The move followed the signing of a defense treaty between the two countries in June 2024, obligating both to provide military aid if either is attacked.

North Korea acknowledged its role in the war only in April 2025. A month later, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un said the country's participation was part of a "sacred mission," aligning Pyongyang's narrative with Moscow's.

Kim remains a vocal ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, supplying not only soldiers but also artillery, drones, and ballistic missiles. During Russia's May 9 Victory Day Parade in Moscow, Putin personally greeted North Korean troops, though Kim did not attend.

In one of largest attacks on Ukraine’s capital, Russian barrage hits Kyiv, Odesa, kills 2, injures 12

In the early hours of June 10, Kyiv and Odesa came under another mass Russian attack, involving ballistic missiles and drones. Explosions were heard across the capital as air defense systems engaged the targets.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration diverted 20,000 anti-drone missiles originally intended for Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, in an interview with ABC News published on June 8.

Zelensky said Ukraine had counted on the missiles to help counter relentless Russian drone attacks, which include swarms of Iranian-designed Shahed-type drones. On June 1, Russia launched a record 472 drones in a single night.

"We have big problems with Shaheds… we will find all the tools to destroy them," Zelensky said. "We counted on this project — 20,000 missiles. Anti-Shahed missiles. It was not expensive, but it's a special technology."

Zelensky said the plan had been agreed upon with then-U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and was launched under President Joe Biden's administration.

The Wall Street Journal reported on June 4 that the Trump administration had redirected the munitions, which include special fuzes used in advanced rocket systems to intercept drones, toward U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East.

The Pentagon reportedly informed Congress in a classified message that the reallocation of the fuzes for the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System was deemed an "urgent issue" by current Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

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A Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) source told the Kyiv Independent on June 4 that Russia is preparing to launch more than 500 long-range drones per night in future attacks, as Moscow rapidly scales up drone production and constructs new launch sites.

The Trump administration has halted the approval of new military aid packages to Ukraine since the start of his second term in January.

Trump has repeatedly expressed skepticism about continued assistance to Kyiv and temporarily suspended military shipments earlier this year, only resuming them after Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire framework during peace talks in Jeddah on March 11.

Hegseth, who ordered the temporary halt, did not attend the most recent Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on June 4 — the first such absence by a U.S. defense chief since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Ukraine has urgently called on Western partners to expand investments in domestic arms production and deliver more air defense systems, including U.S.-made Patriots, to counter intensifying Russian airstrikes.

Despite growing international appeals and Kyiv's offer of a 30-day ceasefire as the basis for peace talks, Moscow continues to reject the proposal.

Trump, who spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 4, has refused to impose new sanctions on Russia, saying he is focused on pursuing a negotiated ceasefire.

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Among the forum’s panels are sessions titled “Russian Space: The Race for Mars” and “The Battle for Hearts and Minds: The Ideology of Sovereign Russia.”

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy