Senior Kremlin officials, likely with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval, pushed Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak out of his position after repeated clashes over the war in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 17 September. Russian state media outlet RBK stated that two sources familiar with the situation confirmed Kozak “resigned” from his post over the weekend of 13 to 14 September. RBK noted he is now considering business offers following his exit.

The allegedly dissenting voice in 2022

Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnov reported on 17 September that sources in Moscow said Kozak “voluntarily” left his position. Dubnov highlighted that Kozak was the only official at the 21 February 2022 Security Council meeting who opposed launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian journalist Alexey Venediktov also confirmed this account.

Kozak reportedly attempted to negotiate with Ukraine at the start of the war, proposing that Kyiv renounce NATO membership. Putin allegedly rejected the talks because he also wanted to annex Ukrainian territory, according to ISW.

Collapse of influence inside Kremlin

The New York Times reported on 10 August that both Western and Russian sources said Kozak’s influence declined sharply in recent months, aaccording to ISW. He reportedly urged Putin to stop fighting in Ukraine, begin peace talks, and reduce the power of Russia’s security services. Those disagreements placed him at odds with Putin and his allies, including Kremlin Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko.

Putin signed a decree on 29 August abolishing two Kremlin departments Kozak supervised: the Department for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries and the Department for Cross-Border Cooperation. Analysts assess this was likely in preparation for Kozak’s removal. Reports on 17 September that he is considering business positions refuted earlier claims that he was a candidate for Presidential Plenipotentiary Representative in the Northwestern Federal DIstrict, showing the Kremlin opted to remove him entirely from state structures.

Reports indicate Kiriyenko has also recently assumed control of the Kremlin’s Moldova portfolio. This handover consolidates Kiriyenko’s power and responsibilities within the Russian Presidential Administration.

“Putin’s likely decision to push an established senior Kremlin official from his inner circle after expressing a desire to end the war in Ukraine further indicates that Putin and his advisors are coalescing around their commitment to continue the war in Ukraine and around Putin’s maximalist war demands,” ISW assessed.

European intelligence services have dismantled a spy network run by Belarus’ KGB across several EU states, the Czech counterintelligence agency (BIS) announced on 8 September evening. Among the suspects is Alexandru Balan, a former deputy head of Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service (SIS) and later a diplomat to Ukraine, who was arrested in Romania.

The case highlights how Belarus continues to serve as a channel for Russian influence and espionage inside the EU, testing European security architecture and raising calls for tighter controls on Belarusian and Russian diplomatic movements across Schengen states.

Network linked to Belarus’ KGB

According to BIS, operatives from the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania uncovered the network, which relied heavily on Belarusian diplomatic cover to move agents across Europe. The operation was coordinated under the supervision of the EU’s judicial cooperation agency Eurojust.

The Czech Foreign Ministry later confirmed the expulsion of a Belarusian diplomat involved in the case, who was given 72 hours to leave the country. 

“To successfully counter these hostile activities in Europe, we need to restrict the movement of accredited diplomats from Russia and Belarus within the Schengen area,” BIS chief Michal Koudelka stated.

Moldovan connection revealed

Romania’s anti-organized crime agency DIICOT said that between 2024 and 2025, the Moldovan suspect met twice with Belarusian KGB officers in Budapest. Investigators have “reasonable suspicion” that the meetings involved transmitting instructions and receiving payments in exchange for state secrets, compromising Romania’s national security.

Romanian and Moldovan media later confirmed the suspect’s identity as Alexandru Balan, a former deputy director of the SIS. Possessing both Moldovan and Romanian citizenship, Balan is accused of leaking classified information and high treason in favour of the Belarusian spy institution (KGB).

Diplomatic mission in Ukraine

After leaving Moldova’s intelligence service, Balan was appointed as a diplomat at the Moldovan Embassy in Kyiv. This fact was not highlighted in this particular case, but it raises a significant concern regarding Mr. Balan’s previous record of activities within his diplomatic position. 

The case highlights the vulnerability of diplomatic postings during wartime and the regional risks posed by compromised officials.

Balan’s record of abuses

Commenting to the Romanian press, Moldova’s former Defense Minister Anatol Salaru described Balan as “the main anti-Romania figure in Moldova’s SIS.” 

Salaru accused him of recruiting Bessarabian students in Romania for intelligence purposes, orchestrating bribery schemes, and protecting criminals.

Balan also played a role in the notorious 2018 case, when Turkish teachers from a Turkish-Romanian high school in Chișinău were kidnapped and handed over to Ankara at the request of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The teachers were taken directly from the streets of Chișinău, flown to Türkiye, and immediately jailed, leaving their families behind.

Wider security implications

The exposure of Belarus’ European spy network comes as Minsk deepens its alignment with Moscow. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory as a staging ground for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and later approved the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear missiles. 

Belarus, under dictator Alexander Lukashenko, remains a close ally of Russia. Moscow not only uses Belarusian territory to stage its war against Ukraine but also seeks to empower pro-Russian forces in neighboring countries, including Moldova. The spy network thus illustrates a broader Kremlin strategy to undermine security across Eastern Europe and destabilize Ukraine’s allies.

Moldova's Victory bloc, a pro-Russian political alliance, plans to participating in the country's September parliamentary elections, the bloc's founder Ilan Shor announced on July 6.

Shor, an exiled pro-Kremlin oligarch, established the Victory bloc in August 2024. The bloc includes his own Shor party, which is banned in Moldova.

Victory will submit documents in the coming days registering the bloc for participation in the September vote, Shor said.

"Our main goal in these elections is to overthrow the fascist regime and hold early democratic elections within the next six months," Shor said.

The candidate list will be headed by Evghenia Gutul, the head of Moldova's Gagauzia region, who is currently on trial for illegally funding the banned Shor party. Gutul maintains ties to Moscow and is currently under U.S. sanctions.

The upcoming September elections carry high stakes for Moldova, one of the pooerest countries in Europe. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said on July 4 that Chisinau's European path rests on the outcome of the vote.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged on July 4 that the European Union will help Moldova defend itself against hybrid threats by "agents of autocracy" as elections approach.

Moldova was granted EU candidate status in 2022. Sandu's ruling Party of Action and Solidarity aims to maintain its parliamentary majority and move the country closer to full membership by 2030.

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The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged on July 4 that the European Union will help Moldova defend itself against hybrid threats by "agents of autocracy."

"We are committed to protecting you against the hybrid attacks and the energy shocks that your country has been a victim of," von der Leyen said following the EU-Moldova summit in Chisinau.

"Who is behind those attacks is clear to all of us here. These are the same agents of autocracy trying to undermine our democracies everywhere in Europe."

Von der Leyen praised Moldova's support for Ukraine and the EU, noting its acceptance of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees and its assistance with European wildfire response efforts.

The visit was made in show of solidarity with Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, as it prepares for high-stakes parliamentary elections on Sept. 28.

The pro-European government of President Maia Sandu faces a challenge from the pro-Russian Socialist Party, amid growing fears of destabilization ahead of the vote.

Sandu has accused Russia of using its military presence in Moldova's Russian-occupied Transnistria region to stir unrest and derail the country's EU aspirations. On June 12, she warned that Moscow could provoke a crisis in Transnistria to influence the election outcome.

Transnistria has been under Russian-backed separatist control since the early 1990s, with approximately 1,000 to 1,500 Russian troops still stationed in the region.

On June 11, Transnistrian authorities declared a 30-day state of emergency after a sharp drop in natural gas supplies. The unrecognized region has faced mounting energy shortages since January, when Russian energy giant Gazprom halted deliveries in what many see as an attempt to destabilize the situation in Moldova.

Moldova was granted EU candidate status in 2022. Sandu's ruling Party of Action and Solidarity aims to maintain its parliamentary majority and move the country closer to full membership by 2030.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean earlier told the Financial Times that Russia plans to send 10,000 troops to Transnistria and establish a pro-Kremlin government in Moldova.

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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Moldovan President Maia Sandu said on July 4 that her country's European Union aspirations depend on Moldovan citizens as a crucial September 28 election approaches.

Sandu hopes her pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) will retain its parliamentary majority, paving the way for Moldova, one of Europe's poorest nations, to join the EU by 2030.

Sandu made her remarks at the conclusion of the 27-nation bloc's inaugural summit with Moldova. Her PAS party faces a challenge from the pro-Russian Socialist Party and its allies in the upcoming election. Sandu secured re-election last year by a narrow margin against a Socialist challenger in the ex-Soviet state, located between Ukraine and Romania. A referendum seeking public backing for EU membership also just barely surpassed a 50% majority.

"Prosperity and peace do not occur for nothing, you have to build them. With collective effort and unity. When citizens are united and choose the correct path and proceed along it," Sandu told a news conference after the summit. "The European Union is already happening here. The only risk is if we stop. If we decide this autumn that nothing will stop us, then everything is possible."

Sandu and her party have condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine and accuse Moscow of destabilizing Moldova. Russia, in turn, claims many Moldovans desire to maintain ties with Moscow and accuses Sandu of fostering Russophobia.

Opinion polls suggest that no single party will likely secure a parliamentary majority. If no majority emerges, pro-European parties would need to engage in coalition talks.

At the summit, which included European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council head Antonio Costa, the EU announced the disbursement of the first €270 million ($318 million) tranche of an Economic Growth Plan for Moldova.

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The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Moscow may instigate a crisis in Moldova's Russian-occupied Transnistria region to destabilize the country ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for September, Moldovan President Maia Sandu said on June 12, according to Moldovan outlet Newsmaker.

"All these years, Russia has been using the residents of Transnistria and can provoke an even greater crisis at any moment if it suits its plans in Moldova," Sandu said.

"We can expect this crisis to deepen in the coming months, before the elections."

The president's comments come after Transnistria declared a 30-day state of emergency on June 11, due to a sharp reduction in natural gas supplies.

The unrecognized region, located along Moldova's eastern border with Ukraine, has faced mounting energy shortages since January, when Russian gas giant Gazprom halted deliveries.

Sandu, a pro-European leader of the country, warned that Moscow could combine voter bribery and political manipulation with "blackmail" in Transnistria.

"Russia may promise assistance in exchange for votes on the Right Bank. We can expect all sorts of games," the president said.

In February, Moldova's government revealed that Transnistria rejected a 60 million euros ($62 million) EU energy aid package under pressure from Moscow.

The Moldovan president assured that the country's institutions are monitoring the risks and pledged that the elections would be "free and fair," despite growing instability.

Sandu emphasized that Chisinau is prepared to support the population in Transnistria but must first address "the main problem — the withdrawal of Russian troops."

"This is a key issue that we must resolve peacefully, because otherwise we will not be able to justify our financial support," she said.

Moscow continues to maintain a military presence in Transnistria, which has been under the control of pro-Russian separatists since the early 1990s. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that around 1,000 to 1,500 Russian troops are currently stationed in the region.  

Chisinau has repeatedly called for the peaceful reintegration of Transnistria and the withdrawal of Russian forces, citing it as essential to Moldova's security and development.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean earlier told the Financial Times that Russia plans to send 10,000 troops to Transnistria and establish a pro-Kremlin government in Moldova.

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The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir