The ratio of Russia’s use of ballistic missiles with 480 kg warheads to cruise missiles has increased in 2025 compared to previous years. Additionally, the Russians are refining their deployment methods for Iskander-M systems, which are capable of destroying residential buildings, making it more difficult for Patriot systems to intercept them, according to RBC-Ukraine.

The missile subtly changes course while the battery tries to keep up automatically

This challenge is compounded by the fact that the Iskander-M missile can make minor course adjustments as it approaches its target.

As Yurii Ihnat, Head of Communications for the Air Force Command, has noted that the Patriot system intercepts ballistic missiles automatically, which makes it harder to determine the precise moment to engage a maneuvering missile.

Ballistic missiles make sharp trajectory changes

Russian occupiers have also begun using Iskander-M more frequently and from multiple directions, often combining them with other tools, such as drones and cruise missiles.

“This, in turn, makes them even harder to intercept. A Patriot battery during an attack can only 'look' in one direction. It cannot engage targets 360 degrees around it,” the military official added.

Despite these challenges, Patriot systems continue to operate effectively, achieving confirmed interceptions of both Iskanders and Kinzhal missiles.

The Russians have begun using guided aviation bombs, also known as KABs, with rocket engines to strike Ukraine, but air defense systems are capable of shooting them down. Such bombs have already been recorded in the skies over Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Poltava oblasts, Suspilne reports. 

Comment from the Air Force and strike confirmation

Yurii Ihnat, head of communications for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, says that the Russians are using the new KAB modifications selectively, primarily to test the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defenses. 

“This is the bomb released from an Su‑34: by flight parameters, it resembles a cruise missile, so it can be intercepted by air defense systems,” Ihnat explains.

He confirmed that Air Command South shot down two such KABs. Another fell in open terrain without consequences. Specialists are already determining the type of munition.

New strikes — impact on cities and infrastructure

On 26 October, Russia launched a guided aerial bomb of a new modification toward Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Its debris damaged an industrial enterprise. Rescuers were deployed to the impact site to extinguish a fire. One person was injured in the city. The day before, the Russians struck Kamianske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for the first time with rocket‑powered aerial bombs of the UMPB‑5/Grom‑E type.

Regional risks and expert assessments

Vadym Kushnikov, an analyst for the portal “Militarnyi,” said on air that, given the Kyiv Oblast's proximity to the Russian border, some objects there could fall into the risk zone and be within reach of these new aerial munitions, per 24 Channel.

“As for the city of Kyiv, the distances are a little greater there, and accordingly, the chances of effective and successful use are significantly lower,” he stressed.

NATO and Ukraine test innovations to intercept KABs

On 24 October, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported that the NATO‑Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Center and NATO Allied Command Transformation conducted the next phase of tests of an innovative solution to counter guided aviation bombs.

During tests at a French range, developer teams evaluated a comprehensive technical solution under adverse weather conditions — radar, AI‑based software, and a drone interceptor.

The statement notes that a radar equipped with an advanced sensor suite detected, tracked, and engaged a simulated “hostile” target. Then, using AI software, the drone interceptor followed a pre‑computed trajectory to engage the target.

“The development has progressed from concept to prototypes of various levels of technological implementation and is intended to protect Ukrainian soldiers and civilians from one of the most destructive threats of modern warfare,” the statement said.

The project to counter Russian guided aviation bombs began in March 2025 with the 15th NATO innovation contest hosted at the NATO center.

Ukrainian specialists are directly participating in the tests and providing expert assessments, allowing the solution to be adapted to the realities of the modern battlefield.