Next week’s Nato summit in The Hague will be significantly shortened to accommodate President Donald Trump’s short attention span — and a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be carefully avoided, The Times reports.

Nato format cut to single session

The 25 July summit will consist of just one 2.5-hour session, a major departure from NATO’s usual multi-session format. According to The Times, diplomats hope the streamlined event will reduce the risk of tension or unpredictability.

“It is about keeping the summit focused, short and sweet,” a diplomat told the paper. “Trump can be impatient and has — [he has] said it himself — a short attention span. The shorter the better.”

There will be no joint press conference between Trump and Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and the summit’s final communiqué will be just five paragraphs, printed on a single sheet of paper.

Zelenskyy excluded from main talks

President Zelenskyy will be present in The Hague only for a leaders’ dinner on 24 June. He has not been invited to the main summit session, and no meeting of the NATO–Ukraine Council at the heads-of-state level is scheduled. Instead, he is expected to speak at a Defense Industry Forum on the sidelines.

Diplomatic sources suggest the decision aims to prevent any direct confrontation between Trump and Zelenskyy. While Euractiv and ANSA reported the US opposed Zelenskyy’s formal invitation, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has denied that claim.

Ukraine dropped from final statement

Despite Ukraine’s long-standing bid to join the alliance, the country will neither be invited to join nor even mentioned in the final NATO communiqué, diplomatic sources told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. The statement will label Russia as a “direct threat”, but omit any language about Ukraine’s future in the alliance.

Ukraine’s desire for NATO membership dates back to 2008, and its constitution enshrines the goal of joining. Yet even after three years of full-scale war against Russia, no formal steps toward membership are expected in The Hague.

“This issue is definitely not on NATO’s agenda, and there have been no expectations of an invitation in The Hague,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told LRT.

Defence spending target to please Trump

The summit’s main goal will be agreement on a new defence spending target of 5% of GDP by 2032, with a review in 2029. The proposal includes 3.5% for core military budgets and 1.5% for defense-related spending.

The decision will be framed as a personal win for Trump, who has long demanded more spending from European allies.

“Keeping unity in the alliance is as much a priority as spending more on defence,” said EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas.

Trump left G7 early, skipped meeting with Zelenskyy

The decision to avoid a Trump–Zelenskyy encounter at the NATO summit follows a similar scene just days earlier. Trump abruptly left the G7 summit in Canada, skipping a planned meeting with Zelenskyy.

According to The Guardian, Trump exited early, “citing the Israel‑Iran conflict.” Reuters reported that Zelenskyy was denied a meeting with his most powerful ally, leaving the Ukrainian side frustrated and empty-handed after the gathering.

All 32 NATO member states are on track to meet the alliance's 2% GDP defense spending benchmark in 2025, Secretary General Mark Rutte said on June 17 at the G7 summit in Canada.

The announcement marks a major shift for the alliance, which has faced repeated criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump for failing to meet spending commitments.

The U.S. president has long pushed NATO members to spend more on defense, at one point suggesting the threshold be raised to 5% of GDP.

"This is really great news," Rutte said, praising announcements from Canada and Portugal, the last two holdouts. "The fact that you decided to bring Canada to the 2% spending when it comes to NATO this year is really fantastic," he told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

In 2024, only 23 alliance members met the 2% target, according to NATO estimates. Poland led all members with 4.12% of GDP allocated to defense, followed by Estonia (3.43%) and the U.S. (3.38%).

Rutte's comments come ahead of the June 24–25 NATO summit in The Hague, which has been reportedly scaled back to a single working session on defense spending and alliance capabilities.

The move, according to Italian outlet ANSA, is designed to avoid friction with Trump, whose presence at the summit remains unconfirmed.

Ukraine has been invited to the summit, but President Volodymyr Zelensky may reconsider his attendance amid uncertainty over the U.S. delegation, the Guardian reported on June 17.

According to the outlet, some in Kyiv are questioning whether Zelensky's presence at the summit would be worthwhile without a confirmed meeting with Trump.

Many NATO members have cited Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine and Trump's isolationist rhetoric as reasons to accelerate defense spending and prepare for potential future threats.

Ukraine won’t receive NATO invitation at The Hague summit, Lithuanian FM says

“This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Ukraine will neither be invited to join NATO nor mentioned in the final communiqué of next week’s NATO leaders’ summit in The Hague, according to diplomatic sources.

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has made NATO membership a central pillar of its national security strategy. The country’s constitution enshrines this goal, and public support remains strong. NATO first declared in 2008 that Ukraine “will become a member,” and in recent years, Western leaders have repeatedly referred to Ukraine’s “irreversible path” toward the Alliance.

Yet despite three years of full-scale war fought under the banner of Euro-Atlantic integration—and multiple high-level assurances—Ukraine has not been invited to join. Now, it won’t even be mentioned in NATO’s top-level statement.

NATO membership not on the table

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys confirmed that Ukrainian membership is not up for discussion.

“This issue is definitely not on NATO’s agenda, and there have been no expectations of an invitation in The Hague,” Budrys told LRT. “We haven’t heard this from the Ukrainians either.”

According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the final communiqué is expected to be unusually brief—likely a single page. While it will identify Russia as a long-term threat, it is not expected to reference Ukraine at all.

Allies push for higher defense spending

Member states are expected to commit to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2032, with a review in 2029. That timeline aligns with the end of a potential second term for Donald Trump, who has supported higher military spending but has questioned NATO’s direction and further expansion.

Zelenskyy’s limited role at the summit

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend a leaders’ working dinner on 24 June, where Trump is also expected. However, he will not participate in the main summit session, and no meeting of the NATO–Ukraine Council at the heads-of-state level is scheduled. Zelenskyy is instead expected to speak at a Defense Industry Forum held on the sidelines.

On 2 June, Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine had been invited to the summit in some capacity, but the format and prominence of his involvement remain unclear.

On 15 May, Euractiv reported that, for the first time in three years, Zelenskyy would not be invited to participate in NATO’s main discussions—allegedly to avoid provoking Donald Trump. Around the same time, ANSA reported that the US was reportedly opposed to his formal invitation. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio later denied these claims, saying the United States had no objection to Zelenskyy’s participation.

An invitation for Ukraine to become a member of NATO "is not on the agenda" of the upcoming summit in The Hague, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in an interview with the Baltic News Service published on June 18.

"This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves," Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.

"There is no such expectation that there will be breakthrough decisions, neither before the Washington summit nor now before the Hague summit – it is not on the agenda."

The comments, coming less than a week before the summit, hint at a shifting rhetoric within the alliance regarding Ukraine's potential membership after U.S. President Donald Trump took office.

The new Trump administration has spoken out against Kyiv's accession, and the U.S. president even echoed the false Russian narratives that its efforts to join NATO helped instigate Russia's full-scale invasion.

Unlike during the previous summits, the final communique may reportedly completely omit the topic of Ukraine's membership, as NATO members seek to avoid a conflict with Trump. The gathering was also preceded by rumors that Ukraine may not be invited due to U.S. opposition, but the invitation was extended in the end.

In spite of these tensions, Budrys said that the summit should keep its focus on Ukraine, stressing that the war-torn country is part of the Euro-Atlantic security space.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale Russian invasion. The alliance has signaled support for Kyiv's accession efforts in previous years, even declaring at the Washington summit in 2024 that Ukraine's path to membership is "irreversible" — but stopping short of a formal invite.

Kyiv's swift entry seems increasingly unlikely amid opposition from the U.S. and several other members, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently reaffirmed that a political commitment to Ukraine's membership stands. Ukraine would need support from all 32 members to join.

It remains uncertain whether The Hague summit will lead to any breakthroughs regarding Ukraine. Following signals that U.S. President Donald Trump may not attend the event, the Guardian reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky may skip the summit as well.

Tired of military aid delays, Ukraine has designed its own ballistic missile — and it’s already in mass-production

Ukraine announced on June 13 that its short-range Sapsan ballistic missile would go into mass production, a major development in Kyiv’s ongoing efforts to domestically produce the weapons it needs to fight Russia’s full-scale invasion. As Ukraine faces growing challenges in securing weapons from Western partners, and Russia continues launching

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

President Volodymyr Zelensky may reconsider attending the NATO summit in The Hague, as questions remain over U.S. President Donald Trump's participation, the Guardian reported on June 17, citing unnamed Ukrainian officials.

According to the Guardian, some in Kyiv are unsure if Zelensky's presence at the June 24-25 summit would be worthwhile without a confirmed meeting with Trump, whom they had hoped to engage directly in efforts to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into accepting a ceasefire.

Earlier, Zelensky had traveled to the G7 summit in Canada, hoping to meet one-on-one with Trump and push for stronger sanctions against Russia. Trump left the summit early, citing the crisis in the Middle East, and no bilateral meeting or joint G7 statement took place.

One official told the Guardian that Ukraine is in a "permanent hazard" of becoming a victim of "Trump's short attention span," adding that Russia has exploited this uncertainty by fresh aerial attacks. The source added that there had been "all sorts of promises for this summit," including U.S. arms.

The Russian attack on Ukraine that occurred during the G7 summit killed at least 24 civilians and injured 134 in Kyiv. Trump has not responded to the attack as of the day after.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has reportedly said Trump had previously promised to attend the NATO gathering, though no official confirmation has been issued from Washington.

Despite the setback, Zelensky said the G7 meeting had concrete results for Ukraine. In a Telegram post on June 17, he thanked partners for increased military aid, new sanctions on Russia, and the decision to allocate frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

"It is important that our partners are ready not only to support our defense now, but also to rebuild Ukraine together after the war ends," he said.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a support package that includes 2 billion Canadian dollars ($1.5 billion) in military assistance and another $1.6 billion in reconstruction loans. The aid includes drones, armored vehicles, ammunition, and sanctions to disrupt Russia's energy revenues.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer also unveiled new sanctions targeting Russia's military-industrial complex and 20 oil tankers from Russia's "shadow fleet."

Zelensky later told G7 leaders that "diplomacy is now in a state of crisis" and called on allies to press Trump to "use his real influence" to help end the war.

Ukraine has been invited to the NATO summit, and Zelensky previously called the invitation "important" during a June 2 press briefing. At the time, he did not confirm whether he would attend in person.

As Trump stays silent, US Embassy makes late denunciation of Russia’s attack on Kyiv

“We extend deepest condolences to the victims’ families. This senseless attack runs counter to President Trump’s call to stop the killing and end the war,” the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine said in a statement.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

“Better to leave than to face the truth.” This is how former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko explains US President Donald Trump’s behavior at the G7 summit on Ukraine, Hromadske reports.

“He has nothing to say to Zelenskyy. He can’t find a single argument to justify his defense of Putin. This is one of those situations where it’s easier to just leave,” the diplomat explains.

According to Ohryzko, all Ukraine can expect from Trump right now is weapons sales and intelligence sharing. Genuine support must come from Europe, but only if European leaders stop “being afraid of their own shadow.”

What happened in Ukraine today is yet another reproach to our European partners, he says.

“We need French or German fighter jets to shoot down missiles over Ukraine — just like the US shoots down Iranian missiles over Israel,” the diplomat adds.

He emphasizes that such action would not drag NATO into the war, as it would be an act of defense, not aggression.

“There isn’t a Russian sitting on every missile. These are aerial weapons flying into the territory of a country friendly to France, so they should be shot down,” he says.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must raise this issue directly with allies during his visit to Canada, in his view.

“The question must be put bluntly. I believe Zelenskyy has to do it today, in Canada,” he concludes.

On 17 June, Ukraine’s capital and other cities were subjected to sheer terror. Russia deployed its every available aerial weapon to strike Kyiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia, including hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, Kalibrs, cruise and ballistic missiles, and Shahed drones.

Read more: 

• How Ukraine can win, p.4: Just repeat what Putin says
• Russia bombs Kyiv and Iran targets Israel, Trump wants ceasefire — but only from Ukraine

Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Clinics, located 50 kilometers from the EU’s external border with Belarus, is developing underground infrastructure, shelters, helicopter landing sites and autonomous systems to function without electricity or water supplies, according to Politico.

The hospital’s preparations mirror those across the region. Estonian authorities are procuring body armor for ambulance crews and satellite phones to maintain communications if traditional networks fail. Plans include generating an independent internet network if necessary.

“We know for certain that Russia targets the civilian infrastructure and energy structures, and that means that you cannot have these kinds of situations where the hospital doesn’t work because there are some power plant problems,” said Ragnar Vaiknemets, deputy director general of the Estonian Health Board.

Electrical generators are being installed across healthcare systems, following Ukraine’s experience with Russian strikes that routinely cut off civilian power. Many hospitals in Eastern Europe — built during the Soviet era — present particular vulnerabilities as large, high buildings concentrated in single complexes.

“I can’t imagine working on a top level … of the hospital just waiting to get hit,” Vaiknemets said, explaining plans to repurpose basements as operating theaters.

Capacity and supply challenges

European countries average 11.5 intensive care beds per 100,000 population, but wartime needs could require three to five times this capacity, according to Bjørn Guldvog, special adviser at the Norwegian Directorate of Health. Most facilities can sustain only 120-150 percent of normal surgical volume for 24 to 48 hours.

Estonia has allocated €25 million for mass casualty supplies, including orthopedic gear, tourniquets and trauma kits — “the only heavy investment we have made,” Health Minister Riina Sikkut said in February.

Latvia requires healthcare institutions to maintain a three-month supply of medicines, a policy established during Covid-19. “I have never thought that I would say thanks to Covid, but thanks to Covid … we found financial resources,” said Agnese Vaļuliene, health ministry state secretary.

The Baltic states’ proximity to potential front lines creates additional challenges for emergency supply storage. Jos Joosten, a medical adviser at the European External Action Service, said other EU countries must identify scarce resources for smaller nations and surrender some sovereignty to enable EU-level distribution decisions.

Workforce uncertainty

Staff shortages present a fundamental challenge for Baltic healthcare systems already stretched thin in peacetime. Estonia, with 1.3 million people, has nearly half the healthcare workforce per capita of Germany.

A Lithuanian survey found that over a quarter of health workers would likely flee during war, while fewer than 40 percent would stay and a third were unsure. Estonia anticipates similar patterns, with officials estimating 50-60 percent of the population don’t yet know how they would respond.

“There are patriots, the first responders, the people that we know without question will stay,” Vaiknemets said. “Of course, there are naysayers that talk about going to Spain straight away.”

Paramedic Noreikaitė signed a declaration committing to work if war breaks out in Lithuania, but acknowledged uncertainty about actual response rates. “But how it would really be — who would come and who wouldn’t — I don’t know. Personally, I don’t have children or a family yet, so I think I would stay,” she said.

Latvian pulmonologist Rūdolfs Vilde said some doctors were considering fleeing if war breaks out, especially parents who “don’t see how it would be suitable for them to ditch the children somewhere and be in the hospital in times of military crisis.”

Learning from Ukraine’s experience

Baltic medical professionals are traveling to Ukraine to observe firsthand how hospitals manage missile strikes, mass casualties and power outages. Vaiva Jankienė, a nurse who has volunteered over 20 times in Ukraine since April 2022, described the scale of injuries as “difficult to comprehend.”

“After the drone attacks, the consequences are hard to imagine,” Jankienė said. “Injuries like these,” she sighed, “every single medical professional who saw them said the same thing: We couldn’t have imagined it would look like this.”

While a trauma doctor in Lithuania might perform one amputation annually, Ukrainian hospital wards are filled with patients suffering amputations of multiple limbs plus other severe injuries. “We have very little experience treating such complex, multiple traumas,” she said.

Regional evacuation planning

The use of advanced weaponry in Ukraine — including long-range missiles and military drones — means the front line is no longer a fixed boundary. Attacks can reach targets hundreds of kilometers away, making evacuation plans essential for countries throughout the region.

Joosten warned that EU solidarity will be tested if conflicts escalate. “If Lithuania is overrun, who’s responsible for Lithuanians, because there’s no Lithuania anymore? But the European Union is (still there),” he said.

He urged EU institutions to create funds for handling civilian and military casualties, as well as displaced populations, noting that casualty numbers could dramatically exceed Ukraine’s experience. “Those 4,000 patients we moved away from Ukraine, that’s nothing, 4,000 in three years,” he said. “Let’s talk about 4,000 in two weeks, and then the next two weeks again.”

The preparations reflect a shift in mindset across NATO’s eastern flank. “It’s not a question of if [Russia] will attack,” Vaiknemets said. “It’s a question about when.”

As Lithuania’s deputy health minister Daniel Naumovas put it in February: “We have bad neighbors here: Russia and Belarus.” While all EU countries face similar challenges, some are “in the vanguard where the water is cold,” he said. “Water is splashing on our face; water of war.”

Read also:

• Canada’s uranium could replace Russia’s resources, choking off Kremlin money, say expert
• Latvian MP faces 20 years in prison after shouting in Russian at parliament\
• Moscow quietly rushes to reinforce its nuclear sites just 300 km from Sweden

Ukraine’s recent assault on airbases across Russia has already ushered in a new conventional wisdom: the expensive, human-crewed weapons (tanks, planes, ships) that have long defined the world’s “advanced” militaries have been rendered obsolete by inexpensive drones.

However, this view is incomplete, and perhaps dangerously misleading. Today’s drone warfare offers sobering lessons that go far beyond the vulnerability of expensive legacy weapons; and the looming integration of AI into drone warfare will make the current situation look positively quaint.

Consider the lessons of the Ukraine war so far. First, the impact of drones goes far beyond legacy weapons. Drones have indeed rendered tanks and armored personnel carriers extremely vulnerable, so Russian ground assaults now frequently use troops on foot, motorcycles, or all-terrain vehicles.

Drones are also effective against almost everything else. Ukraine has used drones to destroy Russian targets as varied as weapons factories, moving trains, ammunition stores, oil refineries, ships, and ports. It could be worse; in fact, Ukraine has shown great restraint, considering Russia’s barbaric conduct. Airport terminals, train stations at rush hour, athletic and concert stadiums, pharmaceutical factories, hospitals, schools, nursing homes — all are equally vulnerable.

Explore further

Ukraine’s own drones crash Putin’s $7-billion “red lines” aircraft — while Russia fights them back with sticks

Two additional sobering lessons from Ukraine concern how drone warfare depends on its industrial base. First, speed and responsiveness are critical. Drone technology, weapons, and tactics now evolve at a blinding pace. A new drone will be useful for only 2-6 months. The other side develops countermeasures, requiring the development of new products, against which new countermeasures are developed, and so on.

At first, the drones used in Ukraine were crude weapons, radio-controlled by a pilot who needed to be nearby. As drones became more sophisticated and lethal, jamming was used to block their radio signals, which led to frequency changes and then frequency hopping, which was then countered by multi-frequency jammers, which then engendered drones that attack jamming equipment.

Then Russia developed drones controlled via fiber-optic cable — impervious to jamming. Ukraine tries to track the cable to its source and kill the pilots (with drones). Now Ukraine has fiber-optic drones, too.

Guidance is ever more sophisticated, so that drones can evade radar by flying very low or using stealth technology. But drone detection and tracking systems have also advanced, employing networks of cellphones and microphones connected to audio analysis software, as well as using Lidar, radar, and cameras.

In response, however, Ukraine’s drone industry and military developed a revolutionary model of weapons research and development, production, and deployment, based on direct, continuous communication between frontline units and drone producers.

Here, Ukraine benefited from having a strong startup ecosystem, which supports a weapons industry (with hundreds of companies) capable of designing, producing, and fielding a new weapon in a matter of weeks. This year, Ukraine will produce more than four million drones, most of them models that did not exist even a year ago. Unfortunately, Russia has adapted as well, also relying heavily on private startups.

Explore further

No aid? No problem. Ukraine’s engineers hit Russia 7,000 times with homegrown tech

Some 80% of the electronics used in Russian drones are sourced from China. While Ukraine was initially highly dependent on China, it has reduced its reliance to perhaps 20%, most of that obtained covertly.

Yet US and European defense R&D and procurement remain slow and uncompetitive, which cripples their ability to defend against drones, as well as their ability to use them. Although few people realize it, the US and NATO now desperately need Ukraine for its drone expertise.

Moreover, AI will change everything. Ukraine’s 1 June operation used 117 drones, each controlled by a skilled operator, and reports suggest that something like half were defeated by Russian defenses — jamming, mainly — because the drones needed to be in radio communication with their controllers. Had they been autonomous, there could have been a thousand of them.

And with AI, there is no need for pilot communication, and thus no effective jamming, greatly increasing drone range and lethality. Five years from now, it will be terrifyingly easy to launch preemptive strikes on conventional targets.

True, the required AI functionality still demands far more computing power and memory than can be put into a small drone. Nor is it cheap. Nvidia chips, for example, cost up to $50,000 each, so even one powerful AI processor would make most drones prohibitively expensive.

Explore further

“Kill a navy for the price of a car”: Ukraine’s drones drove out Putin’s fleet from the Black Sea — then turned on his fighter jets

However, that’s changing fast, driven by the goal of putting serious AI capability into every phone. When that happens, those same capabilities will be available to every drone weapon. And with the sole, vital exception of AI processors, the entire supply chain for both phones and drone weapons is dominated by China.

Stuart Russell, an AI specialist at the University of California, Berkeley, has long argued for an arms-control treaty to prevent the spread of small, mass produced, AI-controlled drone weapons. He even underwrote the production of a short film, Slaughterbots, which dramatizes the risks these drones could pose in the wrong hands.

At a dinner years ago, he told me that it would soon be easy to target individuals using facial recognition or, say, everyone wearing a cross, a yarmulke, or any other religious or political symbol.

Since any meaningful treaty is unlikely in the current geopolitical environment, we must prepare for a world that probably will contain such weapons. But the Western defense establishment increasingly looks like the typical “legacy” company that has been caught off guard by technological disruption. In markets, legacy resistance can be costly, but the costs are purely monetary. In warfare, they can and will be deadly.

Russia is already at Estonia’s gates. Tallinn may become the next target for Russia’s aggressive war because the Russians have several convenient pretexts for it, The Economist reports. 

For several years, Russia has been conducting a covert campaign of intimidation and destabilization against Estonia, using cyberattacks, undercover agents, sabotage, and legions of disinformation bots on social media.

NATO recognizes these risks and has been increasing its military presence in the region: currently, over 2,000 troops from allied countries are stationed in Estonia.

However, amid the reduction of American forces in Europe, Estonia could become the place where Russia first attempts to test the reliability of NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense. 

Between the 1950s and 1980s, the Kremlin resettled hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians to Estonia, and today they make up one-fifth of the country’s 1.4 million population. The largest number of them are living in the city of Narva, located right on the border with Russia. Nearly the entire population there is descended from Russian settlers.

More than 30 years later, Russians have shifted from a politically dominant group to a lower-class minority, though many in Narva still feel attached to the Soviet version of history.

Since the war in Ukraine began, Russian destabilizing efforts have intensified throughout Estonia. Last year, a sociology professor who seemed liberal was exposed as a Russian agent. In 2023, vandals damaged the cars of the Minister of Internal Affairs and the editor of a Russian-language news website.

At the same time, Russian attempts to recruit Russian speakers for minor sabotage through social media have found little support.

Russia recruits elderly in covert sabotage campaign across Ukraine and Europe

The war in Ukraine has united Estonians but divided the Russians living there. Some feel sympathy for their homeland, where many have relatives; some resent Estonian nationalism. Some are Putin supporters or simply wish for a brotherly alliance like in the old days. Others, especially younger people, warmly welcome Ukrainian refugees into their schools and communities.

Since 2022, the Estonian government has taken steps to isolate Estonia from Russia. It stopped issuing visas to Russian citizens, restricted Russian business activities, banned Russian TV channels from cable packages, and removed Soviet-era monuments. This year, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their electricity grids from Russia.

Most of the well-known and most controversial Estonian residents holding Russian passports, who previously could vote in municipal elections, will no longer be able to do so after this year’s elections.

On 12 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a new phase of government discussions on the State Rearmament Program for 2027–2036, with the agenda focused on advancing air defense, space systems, drone capabilities, and robotic technologies, according to a 13 June report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The overhaul is part of Russia’s preparation for a prolonged war with Ukraine and potential future conflict with NATO, the think tank says.

During the meeting, Putin claimed that Russia’s air defense systems had ostensibly intercepted over 80,000 aerial targets since February 2022. Of these, 7,500 were described as operational-tactical and cruise missiles, which Putin said were “almost all” Western-made. He argued that Russia’s war in Ukraine demonstrated the need for a “universal air defense system” that can counter all types of projectiles.

Focus on AI, space capabilities, real-time command systems, naval rebuilding

Putin also emphasized the necessity for advanced digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) to be deeply embedded in Russian military systems. He outlined goals to develop a fleet of new, unspecified spacecraft aimed at improving reconnaissance and enabling real-time command and control capabilities. The Kremlin is also investing in the modernization of the Russian Navy and seeking to rebuild the Black Sea Fleet, which has suffered heavy losses due to Ukrainian attacks.

“Putin’s statements regarding the need for enhanced Russian air defense systems are likely in part a response to Ukraine’s ‘Operation Spider Web,’ in which Ukrainian forces demonstrated an ability to achieve operational surprise and launch drones against airbases in Russia’s deep rear, highlighting the inability of air defenses in these areas to repel short-range Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drone strikes,” ISW wrote.

Oil revenues may factor into strategy

Despite its ambitions, Russia’s ability to finance the vast rearmament remains unclear, ISW says. According to the think tank, the country’s defense industrial base (DIB) had already struggled with fulfilling both domestic and foreign military contracts before Western sanctions were imposed in 2022 in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

 ISW suggests that rising oil prices—partly triggered by Israeli strikes against Iran—could help Russia finance some of its military goals if those prices remain elevated over the medium- to long-term.

Israel’s attack on Iran may have revived Moscow’s oil revenues for war

The think tank concludes that the Kremlin is likely using battlefield lessons from its war in Ukraine to “inform adaptations of Russia’s military and preparing Russia’s DIB for a protracted war against Ukraine and a potential confrontation with NATO.”

British fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft that violated airspace over the Baltic Sea on the morning of June 13, Poland's military command reported.

"This is another case of provocative testing of the readiness of NATO countries' systems," the statement said, adding that NATO command structures are now analyzing the incident.

The Russian Il-20, based on the Il-18 transport aircraft, is used for electronic surveillance and reconnaissance missions. It is equipped with radar and signal intelligence gear designed to collect information on military infrastructure and communication networks.

According to the military command, the aircraft entered Baltic Sea airspace at approximately 10:50 a.m. and was promptly intercepted by two British fighter jets operating out of Poland.

No further details were disclosed about the exact location of the encounter or how long the Russian aircraft remained in restricted airspace.

The incident adds to a series of aerial provocations reported by NATO allies since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Poland has repeatedly scrambled jets in response to Russian missile and drone attacks near its border.

On Feb. 11, a Russian Su-24MR reconnaissance aircraft flew into Polish airspace over the Bay of Gdansk for more than a minute. Moscow attributed the incursion to a navigational error, but Polish officials dismissed the claim as implausible.

Poland shares a long border with Ukraine and a northern coastline along the Baltic Sea, where Russia's militarized Kaliningrad exclave is located.

Warsaw has repeatedly warned that Russia's ongoing aerial provocations could lead to a dangerous escalation if not firmly countered.

How an Israel-Iran war could help Russia’s economy — and deprive Ukraine of weapons

Israel’s “preemptive” strikes against Iran targeting the country’s nuclear program and killing top military officials could have far-reaching implications for Ukraine and could boost Russia’s ability to continue its full-scale invasion, experts have told the Kyiv Independent. Iran has been one of Russia’s staunchest allies throughout the war, providing thousands

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Europe must begin preparing for a gradual reduction in U.S. military support for both the continent and Ukraine, Tagesschau reported on June 13.

"Yes, that's right. That would be so, and we have to deal with that," Pistorius told journalists in response to a question about the U.S. potentially scaling down its support. He noted that the discussions focus on a reduction in U.S. backing rather than a full halt.

The comments come after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Washington would reduce the assistance allocated to Ukraine in the next year's federal budget.

"We now have to look at how much support drops and whether Europeans can compensate for it," Pistorius added.

While the U.S. has been Ukraine's leading military backer under former President Joe Biden, the Trump administration has yet to approve any aid packages and has become increasingly disengaged from peace talks.

Pistorius's comments come amid increasing uncertainty in transatlantic relations. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker confirmed on May 16 that the United States plans to begin discussions with European allies later this year about reducing its military presence on the continent.

Speaking at a security conference in Estonia, Whitaker said the talks would begin after the NATO summit in The Hague in June.

"Nothing has been determined," Whitaker said, according to Reuters. "But as soon as we do, we are going to have these conversations in the structure of NATO."

Whitaker emphasized that any drawdown would be closely coordinated to avoid creating security gaps. Still, he reiterated U.S. President Donald Trump's position that long-standing U.S. efforts to reduce its European military footprint must now be implemented.

"This is going to be orderly, but we are not going to have any more patience for foot-dragging in this situation," he said.

In February, Hegseth reportedly told NATO allies that "stark strategic realities" prevent the United States from being primarily focused on Europe's security. Leaks reported by the Atlantic in March revealed that both Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance privately criticized European defense spending, with Hegseth allegedly expressing his "loathing of European free-loading."

Trump called on NATO member states to increase defense spending up to 5% of GDP. Ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that member states will have agreed to a new goal of increasing defense spending.

"We are headed for a summit in six weeks in which virtually every member of NATO will be at or above 2%, but more importantly, many of them will be over 4%, and all will have agreed on a goal of reaching 5% over the next decade," Rubio told Fox News on May 15.

Such a move would mark a historic shift, with NATO partners collectively accounting for more than half of the alliance's military capacity, according to Rubio.

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, NATO members have significantly increased their defense spending, with countries like Poland and the Baltic nations aiming to reach the 5% target in the coming years.

Ukraine bracing for ‘painful’ reduction in US military aid after Hegseth announces cuts

Editor’s note: For security reasons, the real names of the soldiers mentioned in this story have not been used. A reduction in U.S. military aid to Ukraine would be “painful” and could have potentially “dire consequences” for the global order, Ukrainian lawmakers and soldiers have told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 13 appointed Aliona Hetmanchuk as the head of Ukraine's mission to NATO, replacing Nataliia Halibarenko.

The appointment came "at a critical time for the future of Ukraine, for the future of NATO itself, and, of course, for Ukraine's future in NATO. I realize the responsibility," Hetmanchuk said on her Facebook page on June 13.

"As for this moment, we will be fully immersed in preparations for the summit in The Hague," she added, referring to the upcoming NATO summit that will take place in the Netherlands on June 24 and 25, with Ukraine participating.

Hetmanchuk is a leading Ukrainian foreign policy expert with a background in journalism. She is the founder and director of the New Europe Center and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.

Previously, Hetmanchuk co-founded and directed the Institute of World Policy and has advised the Presidential Consultation Committee between Ukraine and Poland since 2016.

Ukraine applied for alliance membership in September 2022, several months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. While NATO has repeatedly affirmed that Kyiv will eventually join, it has yet to extend a formal invitation.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on June 9 that the political commitment to Ukraine's future membership in NATO remains unchanged, even if it is not explicitly mentioned in the final communique of the upcoming summit in The Hague.

"The irreversible path of Ukraine into NATO is there, and it is my assumption that it is still there after the summit," Rutte said at Chatham House in London.

Rutte's comments follow reporting that this year's summit communique, set for release after the June 24–25 meeting, may exclude references to Ukraine. This would mark a notable departure from previous gatherings, where Kyiv's future in NATO took center stage.

Amid Moscow’s war in Ukraine, Trump wonders why ‘everybody hates’ Russia

“He (Russian President Vladimir Putin) fought with us in World War II… and now everybody hates Russia and loves Germany and Japan. It’s a strange world,” U.S. President Donald Trump said.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Russia could reach the borders of Romania, a NATO member, and attack other countries if Europe fails to help defend Moldova. On 11 June, at the Ukraine–Southeastern Europe summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that after targeting Moldova, Moscow plans to occupy the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, UNIAN reports. 

According to Zelenskyy, Southeastern Europe and Ukraine are among Russia’s targets for provoking chaos in Europe. Moscow has already stirred unrest in the Balkans, attempted to manipulate public opinion in Romania, and has kept Moldova in poverty and instability for three decades in an effort to bring it under its control, he said. 

“If Europe loses Moldova this year, it will encourage Russia to interfere even more in your countries, seizing your resources, your sovereignty, and even your history,” Zelenskyy warned.

The Ukrainian leader stressed that Russia does not see Ukraine as a sovereign state, but rather as a heap of resources and a military platform for future invasions.

Putin’s Victory Day speech may reveal his next target in Ukraine

Regardless of what Putin believes, Zelenskyy said, European countries must put Russia in a position where the aggressor is forced to seek peace. He emphasized that this is entirely possible and depends on Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

“Air defense systems and drones are crucial. Another key tool is sanctions,” he claimed.

Zelenskyy explained that Ukraine needs stronger support, especially regarding Russian oil tankers and the aggressor’s financial sector.

“About the oil price cap: $45 per barrel is better than $60—that’s obvious, that’s true. But real peace will come with a cap of $30 per barrel,” he emphasized.

He also urged European countries to treat postwar security guarantees as a matter of practical necessity.

NATO plans to enhance its missile defense systems on its eastern flank in response to a growing threat from Russia, Bloomberg reported on June 12, citing its undisclosed sources.

For the first time, member states of NATO are reportedly considering combining the alliance's ballistic missile shield with other integrated missile defense assets. The talks are taking place behind closed doors and involve sensitive deliberations, Bloomberg reported, citing its sources.

Moscow has long opposed NATO's missile defense infrastructure, particularly the U.S.-built interceptors deployed in Poland and Romania, states neighboring Ukraine. The alliance has previously said those systems are intended to counter potential long-range threats from Iran, not Russia.

The so-called "NATO expansion to the east" is one of the key narratives used by Russian propaganda to justify its large-scale war against Ukraine.

The proposed integration of ballistic missile defense with NATO's broader air and missile defense network would address threats from any direction in the future. This shift suggests the effort would increasingly be focused on deterring Russian capabilities, according to Bloomberg's sources.

The move comes as NATO ramps up its defense posture more than three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The alliance recently agreed on the most ambitious new weapons targets since the Cold War.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on alliance members to make a "quantum leap" in defense investment in response to the enduring threat from Russia. Speaking at Chatham House in London, Rutte urged allies to increase air and missile defense by 400%.

Talks on integrating the systems may wrap up ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, but could continue afterward, the sources said. Ukraine is invited to attend the summit. It remains unclear whether the initiative will still officially cite Iran as a threat or move fully toward addressing Russia.

The effort is part of a broader strategy to reinforce NATO's eastern flank, but some officials have raised concerns about how it might affect peace efforts in Ukraine and whether the United States will fully support the integration, Bloomberg reported.

Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump echoed Russian claims that Kyiv provoked the invasion by pursuing its NATO ambitions.

Earlier, Bloomberg reported that NATO is deploying a new satellite surveillance system aimed at monitoring military activity in Ukraine and along the alliance's eastern borders. The system, known as Smart Indication and Warning Broad Area Detection (SINBAD), will use AI-powered analysis to scan large areas and detect potential threats with unprecedented frequency.

NATO expands satellite surveillance to monitor Ukraine, eastern flank

The initiative, named Smart Indication and Warning Broad Area Detection (SINBAD), will allow NATO to scan vast territories with unprecedented frequency, using AI-powered analysis to detect changes and alert allies to potential threats.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

NATO is rolling out a new satellite surveillance system designed to monitor military activity in Ukraine and along the alliance's eastern borders, senior commander Admiral Pierre Vandier told Bloomberg in comments published on June 12.

The initiative, named Smart Indication and Warning Broad Area Detection (SINBAD), will allow NATO to scan vast territories with unprecedented frequency, using AI-powered analysis to detect changes and alert allies to potential threats. The alliance has reportedly selected U.S. satellite imaging firm Planet Labs as the project's key partner.

"Today, we're not certain the Russians will stop at Ukraine," Vandier said. "We'll be able to tell them: we're watching," he added.

Vandier, who oversees the alliance's battlefield innovations, emphasized that the ability to monitor troop movements and detect ceasefire violations has become a central concern for European allies, particularly as discussions continue around future peace frameworks for Ukraine.

Previously, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer initiated a so-called "coalition of the willing," uniting countries that would back a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.

So far, at least 37 countries have been involved in the coalition's discussions, with 15 reportedly ready to contribute their troops. Other members have been asked to provide other forms of support, including intelligence, arms, or naval support.

The launch of SINBAD comes as NATO seeks to boost its own capabilities in space surveillance, a field where the alliance has long relied heavily on U.S. assets. While the U.S. remains central to NATO's space strategy, European allies are moving to reduce dependency, especially amid shifting U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump.

Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on the U.S. commitment to NATO, signaled intentions to reduce U.S. troop presence in Europe, and blamed Ukraine's pursuit of alliance membership for provoking the war.

The alliance is also expected to endorse a new defense spending benchmark, 5% of economic output, with 3.5% for core defense and 1.5% for related sectors, at its upcoming summit in The Hague on June 24–25.

President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine has been invited to attend the NATO leaders' summit. "We were invited to the NATO summit. I think this is important," Zelensky said during a June 2 press conference.

Zelensky noted ongoing discussions with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and other alliance officials on Ukraine's potential role and outcomes at the summit.

Russia doubts NATO’s Article 5, could use ‘little green men’ to test it, German intelligence chief warns

“They don’t need to send tanks for that,” German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl told Table Media. “They just have to send ‘little green men’ to Estonia to defend the allegedly oppressed Russian minority.”

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Is Russia at war with Europe? For Czech President Petr Pavel, that is a non-question.

At the GLOBSEC security conference, Pavel delivered a stark assessment of the Russian threat, declaring that Russia views its relationship with Western democracies as “continuous conflict” rather than traditional periods of peace and war.

The warning comes as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte prepares allies for a potential agreement on 5% GDP defense spending at the upcoming Hague summit in June, with Pavel confirming that “if the discussion in The Hague leads us to a general agreement that we need to spend up to 5%, Czech Republic is ready to support it.”

Russia is in a “kind of war” with Western democracies

Pavel, a former NATO Military Committee chairman, outlined a fundamental difference in how Russia approaches international relations compared to Western nations.

“We still divide the periods of history into peace, crisis, and war. Russia is not doing that,” Pavel explained during the conference. “They see history as a continuous conflict where only means and intensity change. So for them, they are actually in a kind of war with Western democracies.”

Currently, Pavel noted, Russia employs “mostly cyber and hybrid tools” against the West, “but this may change very quickly because, as I say, they really see it as a continuity.”

Explore further

Russia may test NATO with limited attack, says German intelligence

Economic pressure over military force

When pressed on how Europe can compel Russia to negotiate, Pavel emphasized economic tools over military intervention.

“Frankly, I don’t think that Europe alone has the power to push President Putin to the table,” he said. “We need other countries, and especially the United States, on board at the same frequency.”

Pavel argued that Russia’s economic vulnerabilities present the best leverage: “The only way how to convince President Putin that the time has come to sit at the table is really to push him to the brink of economic collapse. It’s not about bringing Russia down. It’s simply bringing them to the table to negotiate the future.”

NATO’s 5% spending push gains momentum

The GLOBSEC appearance coincides with accelerating discussions within NATO about dramatically increasing defense spending, with Rutte proposing 3.5% for core military expenditures and 1.5% for broader security investments including infrastructure and cybersecurity.

Pavel warned that a seven-year timeline to reach these targets may not provide adequate preparation time given Russia’s ambitions.

“Russia has an ambition to reconstitute the Soviet Union as a global power,” he stated. “It would be very naive to believe that President Putin will not be tempted to use the power he has – the power of war economy – to at least try to test NATO unity and resolve.”

Czech Republic’s role

Pavel highlighted Czechia’s position as already exceeding the current 2% NATO spending target and committed to reaching 3% in coming years. The country has also led international efforts to supply artillery ammunition to Ukraine.

Pavel directed pointed remarks toward neighboring countries: “When it comes to the Czech Republic, the Russian assessment is that we are a hostile country, we are an enemy, and we are a traitor. So why should we consider Russia as a neutral country to us?”

He added: “I hope this was heard loud and clear also in other neighboring countries – in Bratislava or Budapest as well.”

Kyiv urgently needs weapons amid the summer offensive, while Canada is still counting the guns, CBC reports. The Canadian federal government has yet to fulfill its commitment to transfer firearms seized through the government’s banned weapons buyback program to Ukraine, despite promises made last year.

Although Canada pledged in December 2024 to deliver some of the assault rifles confiscated from civilians to Ukraine, not a single weapon has been sent for military use so far.

During the first phase of the buyback program, over 12,000 banned firearms were purchased from businesses. However, the government has yet to determine how many of these could be transferred to Ukraine.

“The Government of Canada continues to work with businesses to identify prohibited firearms in their inventory of NATO calibre that could be donated to Ukraine,” said Max Watson, spokesperson for the Ministry of Public Safety.

When the program was announced in December, the government stated it was working with Ukraine to identify which specific weapon models could be used in the conflict.

The banned weapons buyback program expanded the list of prohibited firearms from around 1,500 to over 2,000 models. The weapons purchased from businesses are to be destroyed, except for those planned for shipment to Ukraine.

Finland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called in Russia’s chargé d’affaires for questioning following a suspected airspace violation on 10 June, marking the second such incident within a month.

Finnish authorities suspect a Russian military aircraft breached the country’s airspace on 10 June near the coastal city of Porvoo. The Border Guard has launched an investigation into the incident, according to Yle.

The diplomatic meeting is scheduled for 11 June, though ministry officials have not disclosed specific details about the proceedings.

This latest violation follows a similar incident that occurred at the end of May. Following that previous breach, Finland’s foreign ministry summoned Russian Ambassador to Finland Pavel Kuznetsov and formally delivered a diplomatic note addressing the matter.

Russia builds up forces along Finnish border

The airspace incidents come amid broader concerns about Russian military activities along Finland’s border. In May, Major General Sami Nurmi, head of the strategic department of Finland’s Defense Forces, indicated that the country anticipates further Russian military buildup along their shared border after the conclusion of the war in Ukraine.

Earlier, Western media outlets have published satellite imagery showing Russia’s expansion of military installations near the Finnish border. The images revealed new military housing facilities and enlarged storage areas for military equipment.

Finnish intelligence services assessed that Russia could strengthen its military presence along the Finnish border to what they describe as a “threatening level” within the next five years.

NATO intelligence sources also told a Finnish newspaper that Russia is actively maintaining and updating plans for a potential multi-front offensive against NATO’s eastern flank, targeting Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states, with intelligence indicating it could amass up to 600,000 troops along these borders despite its main forces being engaged in Ukraine. 

A Russian military aircraft is suspected of violating Finland's airspace on June 10, the country's Defense Ministry said in a statement.

"The investigation into the suspect's airspace breach has been launched immediately," Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen said. The Finnish border guard is investigating and will share more information as the probe continues, according to the Finnish Defense Ministry.

The alleged violation occurred near the city of Porvoo, located about 50 km east of Helsinki. The city lies in the country's far-south, along the Gulf of Finland.

Russia regularly stages provocations on NATO's eastern flank, which includes Poland, Finland, and the Baltic countries. On May 22, two Russian aircraft violated Finnish airspace, while the day prior Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian Su-24 bomber in international airspace over the Baltic Sea.

Russian aircraft frequently fly from its exclave, Kaliningrad. The jets often disable their transponders, fail to file flight plans, and do not establish contact with regional air traffic control — a pattern NATO officials describe as high-risk behavior.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, NATO officials have increasingly warned Moscow could attack the alliance's members in the coming years. In anticipation of increased hostilities, Finland has said it expects a Russian military build-up on its borders after the war in Ukraine ends.

On May 19, the New York Times published satellite images which seem to indicate an expansion of military facilities near the Finnish border.

Finland joined NATO in 2023 following the onset of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022 and shares a 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia.

NATO countries in Russia's vicinity have intensified their preparations for a possible conflict. Poland and the Baltic countries moved to abandon a treaty banning land mines and are strengthening the borders shared with Russia and its ally Belarus while urging higher defense spending across the alliance.

Germany plans expansion of air raid shelters amid growing Russian threats, official says

“We must quickly create space for 1 million people,” Ralph Tiesler, the head of the Germany’s Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance told Suddeutsche Zeitung. “Existing structures must be assessed and adapted without delay.”

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Russia wants to test NATO's resolve by hostile steps beyond Ukraine, as some Russian officials believe the alliance's collective defense principle no longer works, German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl told the Table Media news outlet in an interview published on June 9.

"There are people in Moscow who no longer believe that NATO's Article 5 works. And they would like to test it," Kahl said in the podcast interview.

The comments come as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Russia could be ready to launch an attack against the alliance within five years. Such stark warnings have become increasingly common since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The chief of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) noted that Moscow sees its war in Ukraine as "only a step on its path westward." Citing intelligence sources, he said Russia may seek to start a lower-intensity confrontation that will test the U.S.'s willingness to fulfill its obligations under Article 5.

"They don't need to send tanks for that," Kahl noted. "They just have to send 'little green men' to Estonia to defend the allegedly oppressed Russian minority."

Article 5 refers to a key principle of the North Atlantic Treaty, which obliges all members to treat an attack on one member as an attack on all and provide assistance. The article has been invoked only once, following the September 11 terrorist attacks against the U.S. in 2001.

The term "little green men" was first used in reference to Russian soldiers without insignia who seized key strategic facilities in Crimea in 2014 in the opening phase of the Russian occupation of the Ukrainian peninsula.

Concerns among NATO members about a potential Russian aggression and Washington's commitment to the alliance have grown since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January.

The new administration has signaled plans to reduce military presence in Europe, and Trump has even directly challenged the collective defense principle by saying the U.S. would not defend NATO members who do not invest sufficiently in their military capabilities.

New German Chancellor Friedrich Merz traveled to Washington last week to meet Trump and discuss joint support for Ukraine and NATO's future. While the talks proceeded relatively smoothly, the German chancellor failed to obtain any concrete commitments from Trump.

Multiple Ukrainian and Western officials have warned that Russia may be preparing for an open confrontation with NATO after ending its war against Kyiv. The preparations may pick up pace if Western sanctions are lifted as part of a potential peace deal, Ukrainian intelligence said.

What UK’s Strategic Defense Review means for Ukraine

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on June 2 that the United Kingdom is moving to “warfighting readiness,” in large part in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the threat Russia poses to Europe. He made the comment as his government unveiled its latest Strategic Defense Review, which

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Nichol

Western security officials continue to assess that Russia is preparing for a protracted confrontation with NATO, according to recent intelligence briefings and statements from alliance leadership.

NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte disclosed on 9 June that intelligence assessments indicate Russia will produce 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles in 2025. The production figures may include both new vehicles and refurbished equipment from Russia’s Soviet-era stockpiles, though Rutte did not specify the breakdown between these categories.

“Russia is cooperating with the People’s Republic of China, North Korea, and Iran and Russia is reconstituting its forces with Chinese technology,” Rutte said during the briefing.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 9 June that Russia does not need to reconstitute its forces to pre-2022 levels before posing a threat to NATO states. According to ISW’s analysis, Russia could launch military operations against a NATO state before 2030.

Rutte also announced that Russia “could be capable of launching military operations against NATO within five years,” aligning closely with the ISW assessment timeline.

In response to these threat assessments, NATO defense ministers agreed on 5 June to increase air and missile defense spending by 400 percent. The spending increase aims to protect against large-scale drone and missile strikes similar to those Russia has deployed against Ukraine.

ISW reported on 8 June that Russian officials are establishing groundwork to exit international arms control agreements as part of preparations for potential military confrontation with NATO. The assessment indicates Moscow may exploit the ongoing Ukraine war to justify renouncing participation in additional international arms control frameworks as it prepares for expanded confrontation with Western powers.

Russia’s potential withdrawal from arms control mechanisms would eliminate key constraints on weapons development and deployment that have maintained strategic stability since the Cold War era, according to the ISW analysis.

The political commitment to Ukraine's future membership in NATO remains unchanged, even if it is not explicitly mentioned in the final communique of the upcoming summit in The Hague, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on June 9.

"The irreversible path of Ukraine into NATO is there, and it is my assumption that it is still there after the summit," Rutte said at Chatham House in London.

"Whether it is again in the communique or not, I think that's not relevant, because all the language we previously agreed on is there — until we decide it is no longer there."

Rutte's comments follow reporting that this year's summit communique, set for release after the June 24–25 meeting, may exclude references to Russia and Ukraine. This would mark a notable departure from previous gatherings, where Kyiv's future in NATO took center stage.

Ukraine applied for alliance membership in September 2022, several months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. While NATO has repeatedly affirmed that Kyiv will eventually join, it has yet to extend a formal invitation.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who is set to attend the summit, has claimed that Ukraine's NATO aspirations provoked the war — a line frequently echoed in Russian propaganda. He also signaled plans to reduce U.S. military presence in Europe and has been reluctant to provide new military support to Kyiv.

President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on June 2 that Ukraine had been invited to the upcoming summit, despite earlier speculation that the country might be excluded due to opposition from the Trump administration.

The Ukrainian president has attended every NATO summit since February 2022: in person in 2024 in Washington and 2023 in Vilnius, and virtually in 2022.

This year's summit is expected to focus more cautiously on alliance posture and defense spending, as internal divisions surface over support for Ukraine and broader geopolitical commitments.

Russian missile and drone barrage hits Kyiv, Odesa, killing 2 and injuring 12, damaging maternity hospital

In the early hours of June 10, Kyiv and Odesa came under another mass Russian attack, involving ballistic missiles and drones. Explosions were heard across the capital as air defense systems engaged the targets.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

Exclusive

“Retaliation” headlines are a gift to the Kremlin—and a betrayal of Ukraine. Three years of systematic slaughter doesn’t become “retaliation” because Ukraine finally fought back.

“I will crawl but get him on his feet”: Devoted father doesn’t leave son’s bedside for years. Son was paralyzed defending Ukraine. From an unresponsive soldier with bilateral skull fractures who couldn’t move, speak, or recognize anyone in 2022, Vitalii Shumey has transformed into a man who now jokes with nurses, asks about his nephew, remembers the past, and lifts his head independently.

“I was not fierce enough”: Georgian activist’s brutal confession as democracy collapses. She saw the red flags, trained the people now dismantling democracy—and stayed silent too long.

Military

Russia’s nuclear shield is cracking — and it’s Moscow pulling trigger. By using strategic bombers and dual-use missiles in its war on Ukraine, Russia has turned its nuclear delivery systems into legitimate targets — and Ukraine is hitting them with precision.

Russia loses 28,900 artillery pieces — yet still floods Sumy borders with largest number of miliatary equipment in six months. Trains packed with weapons and troops thunder toward Kursk Oblast. Ukraine braces for a brutal fight to keep its city of Sumy alive.

Ukraine’s drones sneak 940 km inside Russia to target Shahed “brain” factory. Two UAVs crash into Russia’s VNIIR-Progress plant, igniting explosions that rattle the city.

Ukraine reportedly destroys MiG-31 carrier that can launch 500 kg hypersonic Kinzhals. The aircraft carries nuclear and conventional warheads at impossible Mach 10-12 speeds.

Dozens of Russian drones target Rivne in “most extensive” regional attack, one injured. Ukraine endured a six-hour air raid alert as Russian forces launched cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and Shahed drones from multiple directions, striking targets in Rivne Oblast and damaging buildings in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast.

Ukrainian drones strike Russian defense plant 1,000km from border. Ukrainian unmanned aircraft reached the Chuvash Republic, over 1,000 kilometers from the border, striking a defense contractor that supplies electronic warfare countermeasures to Russian forces.

Frontline report: Ukraine crippled Russia’s bombers. Now the crown jewel of Putin’s nuclear arsenal may be next. Russia’s nuclear submarines are over 6,000 km from Ukraine — but that might not be far enough.

Ukraine’s General Staff confirms hitting Russian drone parts factory 1,000 km from border. Ukraine struck a Russian military factory 1,000 kilometers from the border that makes drone antennas, forcing the plant to shut down operations.

Intelligence and technology

Ukraine’s new ballistic missiles may have already hit battlefield, destroying Russian command posts. During the Soviet era, Ukraine was a major center for the design and production of ballistic missiles. The key enterprise was Pivdenmash, located in Dnipro.

Russia outguns NATO, producing more ammunition in three months than Alliance makes in year. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reveals a staggering arms race, urging urgent steps to bolster air and missile defenses ahead of looming threats.

Ukraine already redefined modern warfare with Operation Spiderweb — now it’s planning next revolution with new weapons. Lighter than cruise missiles, deadlier than drones.

Israeli Patriots once guarded Tel Aviv — now they’re knocking Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhals out of Ukraine’s skies. Despite past assessments, Israel quietly delivers Patriot systems to Ukraine.

Russia’s V2U drone uses AI for autonomous strikes in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast. A Chinese minicomputer and American processor enable Russia’s V2U drone to select targets autonomously using artificial intelligence, according to the Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate

Renault tapped for Ukrainian drone production near frontline. The effort aims to support Ukrainian and French armies with advanced drone systems.

International

NATO needs to increase air and missile defence by 400% – Rutte says ahead of June summit. Secretary General Mark Rutte plans to tell NATO allies they need a “quantum leap” in collective defence, including a 400% increase in air and missile systems, ahead of next month’s summit in The Hague.

ISW: Russia may exit more arms control treaties, signaling prep for potential war with NATO. Russian officials are establishing diplomatic cover for arms control treaty exits by portraying Moscow as the victim of Western aggression, despite Russia’s documented treaty violations dating to 2019.

From blacklist to spotlight: Russian opera stars return to European stages despite Ukraine war boycott. Ukrainian officials call Europe’s gradual acceptance of Russian performers a security risk as Putin-supporting artists return to prestigious venues.

Humanitarian and social impact

Multi-stage prisoner swap returns Ukrainian defenders under 25 from Russian captivity. The first Ukrainian prisoners of war under 25 years old returned from Russian captivity on 9 June as part of a complex, staged exchange process that implements agreements reached in Istanbul negotiations earlier this month.

New developments

“Why does he speak?” Ukrainian heavyweight champion Usyk calls on Trump to be responsible for his promise to end war in 24 hours. In 2024, he defeated Tyson Fury and became world champion, holding all four major belts simultaneously

Read our earlier daily review here.

Canada will reach NATO’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP this year, five years ahead of schedule, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on June 9.

Speaking at the University of Toronto, Carney said the move is part of a strategic pivot away from reliance on the U.S. and toward deeper cooperation with the European Union, citing growing security threats from Russia, China, and other adversaries.

Carney said Canada's current military capabilities are inadequate, noting that only one of four submarines is operational and much of the maritime and land fleet is outdated.

To reverse this trend, his government is launching a $6.8 (9.3 billion Canadian dollars) boost to the defense budget for 2025-26. The investment will be tabled in Parliament through supplementary estimates and directed toward rebuilding the Canadian Armed Forces, upgrading equipment, and expanding domestic production capabilities.

The new defense posture includes reassessing major procurement decisions, such as the planned purchase of U.S.-made F-35 jets, and prioritizing partnerships with European firms for equipment acquisitions.

Carney emphasized that three-quarters of Canada's defense capital spending has gone to the U.S., a pattern he said must end. "We’re doing this for us," Carney was quoted as saying. "Relatedly we’re doing it as a strong NATO partner, we’re a firm believer in NATO, and we’re standing shoulder to shoulder with our NATO allies, we’ll continue to do so. ."

Carney’s announcement comes just ahead of the NATO leaders' summit in late June, where member states are expected to commit to higher defense spending thresholds of up to 5%.

The prime minister said Canada would support a new NATO defense industrial pledge and participate in the EU’s ReArm Europe initiative. He added that future cooperation with the EU will be a major theme of the upcoming Canada-EU summit.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine shoots down nearly 500 drones, missiles in Russian record strike, Air Force says

Key developments on June 9: * Ukraine shoots down nearly 500 drones, missiles in Russian record strike, Air Force says * Ukraine begins new major prisoner exchange with Russia * Russia claims offensive in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast aimed at creating ‘buffer zone,’ Ukraine denies reports of incursion * Putin approves new naval strategy as

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Russia turns the war into a marathon of continuous arms production. Moscow produces more ammunition than all NATO countries combined, and does so many times faster, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London on 9 June. 

“In terms of ammunition, Russia produces in three months what the whole of NATO produces in a year,” said Rutte.

He added that Russia’s military machine is not slowing down. On the contrary, it is strengthening its potential. Russia is actively replenishing its arsenal with help from China, Iran, and North Korea. 

Rutte also noted that Russia is using Chinese technology to modernize its army.

“And its defence industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armoured vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles this year alone,” the NATO chief highlighted.

He warned that Russia could be ready for aggression against NATO within the next five years. According to Rutte, “President Putin does not act like someone who is interested in peace.” 

NATO needs to increase air and missile defence by 400% – Rutte says ahead of June summit

Russia produces as much ammunition in three months as NATO does in a year, posing serious risks for the alliance, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on June 9 at Chatham House in London.

"The capabilities of (Vladimir) Putin's war machine are speeding up, not slowing down," Rutte said. "Russia is reconstituting its forces with Chinese technology and producing more weapons faster than we thought."

Rutte's statement comes amid mounting tensions between the alliance and Russia and an increasingly uncertain U.S. commitment to European security.

According to Rutte, Russia is restoring its military potential with the help of China, Iran, and North Korea. This year, the Russian industrial complex is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles, NATO chief said.

"Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years," Rutte said. "Let's not kid ourselves."

"We are all on the eastern flank now. The new generation of Russian missiles travels at the speed of sound. The distance between European capitals is only a matter of minutes. There is no longer east or west. There is just NATO," he added.

When asked whether a long-term truce in Ukraine's war against Russia would allow the latter to stockpile even more weapons and increase the risks to NATO, Rutte said: "That's a statement of fact."

"Our assumption at the moment is that even whilst the war against Ukraine is continuing, they (Russian forces) are still able to increase stockpiles slightly, but that's debatable," Rutte added.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted European countries to hike defense spending in order to revive their military capabilities, which atrophied after decades of disarmament following the Cold War.

The matter gained more urgency after signals that the U.S., the most powerful military in NATO, plans to scale down its presence in Europe as President Donald Trump shifts strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region.

Ukrainian foreign intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko recently warned that Russia will be able to replenish its forces between two and four years after the war in Ukraine, allowing it to launch aggression against Europe.

‘Find and destroy’ – how Ukraine’s own Peaky Blinders mastered the art of bomber drones

Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. DONETSK OBLAST – From the moment the vehicles duck into pre-prepared positions in the leafy treeline to the first dead Russian soldiers, less than twenty

The Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell

Ukraine has reinvented the Trojan Horse tactic during Operation Spiderweb inside Russia, NATO Admiral Pierre Vandier said in an interview with AFP on June 9.

Kyiv's operation, conducted overnight on June 1, involved hiding first-person view (FPV) drones in trucks deep inside Russia before the attack. The operation damaged 41 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers — two of Russia's primary platforms for missile attacks against Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian military. It caused approximately $7 billion in damage and disabled one-third of Russia's cruise missile bombers, according to a source in the Security Service of Ukraine.

"What the Ukrainians did in Russia was a Trojan Horse — and the Trojan Horse was thousands of years ago," Vandier, NATO's supreme allied commander transformation, said. "Today, we see this kind of tactic being reinvented by technical and industrial creativity."

Vandier said that NATO needs to act quickly to master new technologies in time, considering the looming Russian threat. But the admiral added that while drones are indispensable in modern warfare, they are not omnipotent.

"No one in the military sphere will tell you that we can do without what we'll call traditional equipment," Vandier said. "However, we are certain we need new equipment to complement it."

"Today, you won't cross the Atlantic with a 10-meter-long (33-foot-long) drone. You won't easily locate submarines with such tools," he added.

"If they accompany your large platforms, you'll be able to achieve much better results at much lower costs."

Ukraine has pioneered drone technology during Russia's full-scale war, introducing various ground-, air-, and sea-based models for combat and reconnaissance missions.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on May 30 that Ukrainian soldiers hit and destroyed in May more than 89,000 Russian targets using drones of various types.

Ukraine is working to scale up domestic production. Kyiv has also developed long-range missile-drone hybrids, including the Palianytsia and Peklo models, which use turbojet engines as cruise missile alternatives.

By the end of 2024, Ukraine had developed a total of 324 new types of weapons, according to the Ministry of Strategic Industries.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has questioned Russia's ability to attack NATO countries, as it is not "even capable of defeating Ukraine," he said in an interview with French TV channel LCI on June 8.

"The Russians are too weak for that," Orban said. "They're not even capable of defeating Ukraine, so they're incapable of really attacking NATO."

Over three years into its full-scale war, Russia has failed to achieve Ukraine's surrender or at least the complete occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which was reportedly among the Kremlin's demands in Russia's first peace proposal in 2022.

Russian troops have recently intensified their offensive, moving deeper into Sumy Oblast, as well as closing in on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Russian propaganda has for years insisted that NATO and its further expansion pose a threat to Moscow. The Kremlin has also claimed that Ukraine's ambition to join NATO was a major trigger for its invasion, although in 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea and started the war in the Donbas region, Ukraine's chances and desires of joining the alliance were low.

Orban, widely regarded as the European Union's most pro-Russian leader, said that it is not in the interests of the EU, including Hungary, to have "a direct conflict with Russia" or "a threat of war," so Ukraine must not join NATO.

"Europe must be strengthened in the long term, and there must be a strategic agreement with Russia," Orban said, adding that sanctions against Russia are "destroying Hungary and the whole of Europe."

Under the Orban regime, Hungary has become widely regarded as the most Kremlin-friendly state in the EU.

Budapest has been blocking the opening of EU accession negotiation clusters with Kyiv and signaled further obstruction in recent weeks after Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) said it had uncovered a Hungarian spy network in western Ukraine.

Orban also encouraged Hungarians to vote in a non-binding national poll on Ukraine's EU bid that the government launched in early March. The poll has garnered criticism for low turnout and manipulative questions, written to encourage citizens to reject Ukraine's accession.

Key to Russia’s potential defeat lies in its economy

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, attention remains fixed on the battlefield. But Russia’s most vulnerable flank is not in the trenches — it’s in the treasury. The West, and especially the United States, holds economic levers that could push Vladimir Putin toward serious negotiations or even collapse

The Kyiv IndependentWojciech Jakóbik

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on alliance members to deliver a "quantum leap" in defense investment as the threat from Russia persists, Bloomberg reported on June 9.

"Danger will not disappear even when the war in Ukraine ends," Rutte said in prepared remarks for a speech at Chatham House in London. "We must have more forces and capabilities to implement our defense plans in full."

Rutte urged NATO members to boost air and missile defense by 400%, citing lessons from Russia's attacks on Ukraine.

Russia has been repeatedly targeting Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones of different types. Most recently, on June 9, Russia launched 499 drones and missiles during its massive overnight attack across Ukraine.

Kyiv has been consistently calling on its allies to boost air defense support.

"We see in Ukraine how Russia delivers terror from above, so we will strengthen the shield that protects our skies," Rutte said, according to Bloomberg.

Rutte is pushing for NATO countries to adopt a new military spending target of 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2032, alongside an additional 1.5% of GDP for security-related projects such as cyber defense and border control. The proposal comes after U.S. President Donald Trump called on allies to spend 5% of GDP on defense.

Rutte's remarks follow his earlier warning during an April visit to the White House, where he met with Trump. There, he reiterated that NATO views Russia as a "long-term threat" to Euro-Atlantic security.

"We all agree, in NATO, that Russia is the long-term threat to NATO territory, to the whole of the Euro-Atlantic territory," Rutte said after those talks.

Amid missile shortage, Ukraine’s air defenses are struggling under Russian ballistic attacks

As the air defense missile stocks run low and the future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine grows increasingly uncertain, Kyiv is under pressure to defend its sky. The concerns mount as Russia scales up its aerial attacks across Ukraine, combining ballistic missiles and drones to overwhelm air defenses.

The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

Russian officials are establishing the groundwork to exit international arms control agreements as part of preparations for potential military confrontation with NATO, according to recent statements from Moscow.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Kremlin newswire TASS in an interview published on 7 June that Russia’s “unilateral moratorium” on deploying land-based missiles banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is approaching its “logical conclusion.” The statement suggests Russia may openly deploy such weapons systems in the future.

Ryabkov claimed the United States and Western allies failed to appreciate or reciprocate Russia’s “restraint” following America’s 2019 withdrawal from the INF Treaty. However, his assertions that Russia continued adhering to the treaty after the US departure contradict established facts.

The United States suspended INF Treaty participation on 1 February 2019, and formally withdrew in August 2019 due to Russia’s development, testing, and deployment of intermediate-range 9M729 (SSC-8) missiles in violation of treaty terms. Russia responded by suspending its own participation on 2 February 2019.

According to the Institute for the Study of War analysis, Ryabkov’s claims about Russia’s continued treaty compliance represent part of the Kremlin’s broader campaign to portray itself as committed to de-escalation while characterizing NATO and Western nations as threats to Russian security.

The ISW assessment indicated Moscow may exploit the ongoing Ukraine war to justify renouncing participation in additional international arms control frameworks as it prepares for expanded confrontation with Western powers.

Russia’s potential withdrawal from arms control mechanisms would eliminate key constraints on weapons development and deployment that have helped maintain strategic stability since the Cold War era.

Germany is planning to quickly expand it network of air raid shelters and bunkers, in preparation for a potential Russian attack on the country, Ralph Tiesler, the head of the Germany's Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance said.

"For a long time, there was a widespread belief in Germany that war was not a scenario for which we needed to prepare. That has changed. We are concerned about the risk of a major war of aggression in Europe," Tiesler told the German Suddeutsche Zeitung news outlet on June 5.

Tiesler, the official in charge of civilian protection in Germany, said that only 580 of the country's 2,000 cold war-era bunkers were in working order. In its current condition, the shelters would house 480,000 people, a small fraction of the country's population that total 83 million people.

"We must quickly create space for 1 million people," Tiesler said. "Existing structures must be assessed and adapted without delay," warning that solely constructing new shelters would take too long.

The focus on revamping shelters comes amid ongoing fears that Russia may attack a NATO country within the next decade.

Germany's Defense Chief Carsten Breuer told BBC on June 1 that allies need to be prepared for an attack within the next four years.

"There's an intent and there's a build up of the stocks," Breuer said. "This is what the analysts are assessing - in 2029. So we have to be ready by 2029... If you ask me now, is this a guarantee that's not earlier than 2029? I would say no, it's not. So we must be able to fight tonight."

Breuer's comments were the latest in a series of increasingly dire warnings from Western leaders and defense officials about the threat emanating from Russia and Europe's current lack of preparedness.

Tiesler said that Germany would need to spend at least 10 billion euros ($11.4 billion) to cover civil defense needs over the next four years, and 30 billion euros ($34 billion) over the next 10 years. Tiesler's office is expected to produce a detailed plan to the shelters' expansion, as well as addition civil defense needs this summer.

As concerns as to where Russia may launch an initial incursion into NATO territory mount, Russia has continued to restructure its military presence along its Baltic flank. Analysts and military experts believe that Russia may launch on initial attack on a country in the Baltic Sea region, given its strategic positioning and surroundings, including the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

Russian Baltic Sea provocations ‘increasing threat of accidental military incidents,’ Latvian intelligence says

The annual report said Russia is using aggressive tactics, such as unauthorized airspace incursions and close encounters with NATO ships and aircraft.

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

The foreign affairs committees of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania released a unified statement declaring comprehensive support for Ukraine’s integration into NATO and the European Union, while reaffirming their commitment to Ukraine’s victory against Russian aggression.

The committees stated that Ukraine’s victory over Russian aggression and its NATO membership “would consolidate a just and lasting peace not only in Ukraine but also in all of Europe and help to preserve the rules-based international order globally.” They argued that NATO membership would provide “a more effective and enduring framework for safeguarding Euro-Atlantic security.”

The statement emerged from a meeting held in Birstonas, Lithuania on 6 June, according to Žygimantas Paviljonis, head of the Lithuanian parliament’s foreign affairs committee. The three Baltic nations outlined five specific commitments regarding Ukraine’s future security and political alignment.

Five Key Commitments:

• Support Ukraine until its full victory, including liberation of all temporarily occupied territories, accountability for war crimes, and full implementation of international justice
• Support Ukraine’s EU membership with the goal of concluding accession negotiations and welcoming Ukraine as a full member by 1 January 2030
• Support Ukraine’s path toward NATO membership and call on the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague to take concrete political steps for Ukraine’s accession
• Welcome growing defense cooperation between Ukraine and partners and encourage Ukraine’s invitation to join the Joint Expeditionary Force as “a meaningful step towards deeper regional security integration”
• Continue diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia and its supporters, expand sanctions regimes, and ensure full legal and political accountability for crimes against Ukraine

The Baltic committees urged other national parliaments, international assemblies, and governments to endorse their position and take corresponding actions supporting Ukraine’s integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions.

Earlier media reports citing Finnish intelligence sources revealed that Russia was actively maintaining and updating plans for a potential multi-front offensive against NATO’s eastern flank, including Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states.

Intelligence sources warned that a Russian attack is considered inevitable rather than a possibility, with Russia willing to accept massive casualties and likely to use missile strikes on civilian targets, mirroring tactics seen in Ukraine.

The parliamentary foreign affairs committees of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania issued a joint statement on June 6, affirming their firm support for Ukraine both in its defense against Russia and in its pursuit of EU and NATO membership.

Following their meeting in Lithuania on June 6, the Baltic states reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s EU integration, stating their goal of concluding accession talks and welcoming Ukraine as a full EU member by Jan. 1, 2030.

Ukraine applied for EU membership in 2022 and was granted candidate status within months. Accession talks began in June 2024, with European leaders setting 2030 as a target for Ukraine's potential accession.

Despite broad EU support for Ukraine's accession, Hungary remains a major obstacle. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced on March 7 that his government would conduct an opinion survey on Ukraine's potential EU membership.

In their statement, the Baltic states also urged the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague to take "concrete political steps" toward Ukraine’s membership in the alliance. They argued that Ukraine's NATO accession would “consolidate a just and lasting peace not only in Ukraine but also in all of Europe" and help uphold the rules-based international order globally.

"Ukraine’s NATO membership would provide a more effective and enduring framework for safeguarding Euro-Atlantic security," the statement reads.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale war. The country has not received a formal invitation, as the 32 members have not reached a consensus.

The statement also reaffirmed the Baltic countries’ pledge to support Ukraine “until its full victory,” and welcomed expanding defense cooperation between Ukraine and like-minded partners. It encouraged inviting Ukraine to join the U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), calling it a meaningful step toward deeper regional security integration.

"We call upon the Foreign Affairs Committees of other national parliaments, international parliamentary assemblies, governments, and responsible institutions to endorse this statement and to adopt corresponding actions that would ensure continued and determined support for Ukraine’s victory, reconstruction, and full integration into the Euro-Atlantic community," the statement read.

Nordics, Baltics urge concrete steps toward Ukraine’s EU membership

In a joint letter, the foreign ministers of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia called on Brussels to put forward “concrete proposals on how to decisively advance Ukraine’s accession process.”

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Former Polish President Lech Wałęsa has called for a recount or a repeat of the second round of the presidential election, in which the conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki emerged victorious.

“I have no doubt! The results of the second round of the election should be accurately recounted, with attention to suspicious figures, or the second round should be repeated with greater scrutiny,” Wałęsa says.

Meanwhile, Polsat News reports irregularities in the vote count. According to the Election Commission in Kraków, in the first round, Rafał Trzaskowski led with 550 votes, while Karol Nawrocki came third with 218. But in the second round, Nawrocki received 1,132 votes, compared to Trzaskowski’s 540.

Polish Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski notes these figures and described some results as “quite improbable.” He officially appealed to the National Electoral Commission to investigate such cases.

“It’s important to understand why there was sometimes a 200% increase in support for a single candidate at one polling station — even from a mathematical standpoint, this seems rather implausible,” he said.

Rafał Trzaskowski’s campaign, Nawrocki’s main rival, urged citizens to report irregularities via a specially created website.

All such reports are forwarded to the National Electoral Commission, though the Commission emphasized that Poland’s Supreme Court will review the final results.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that all documented violations must be investigated.

Earlier, Poland officially designated a memorial day for the victims of the “genocide committed by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army,” stating that Ukrainian nationalists “killed over 100,000 Poles,” VSN reports. 

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already criticized the decision, stating that it “contradicts the spirit of good neighborly relations” between the two countries.

U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich as the next Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) on June 5, reaffirming a key American role in NATO's military structure.

The expected appointment marks a reversal of earlier speculation that the Trump administration was considering relinquishing the U.S. military position, traditionally held by an American four-star general for nearly 75 years.

The role oversees all NATO operations in Europe and is considered one of the alliance's most critical posts. The U.S. has filled the role since its creation after World War II.

Grynkewich, who currently serves as Director for Operations of the Joint Staff, will replace Army General Christopher Cavoli who has been serving in the post since July 2022. His term is expected to start once his nomination is approved in the coming months.

Trump personally informed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of the decision, Reuters reported on May 30.

The move is likely to offer short-term reassurance to NATO allies wary of a potential American drawdown. Trump's "America First" doctrine has repeatedly cast doubt on the U.S. commitment to multilateral alliances, especially NATO.

In recent years, Trump has questioned whether Washington should defend alliance members that do not meet military spending benchmarks. The comment sparked alarm across Europe, where several countries, including Italy, Canada, and Spain, still fall short of the 2% of GDP goal.

The decision to name a new SACEUR suggests the U.S. will remain engaged in the alliance's military command structure for now, even as Trump continues to push for a rebalancing of defense responsibilities among NATO members. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has repeatedly called on NATO allies to contribute 5% of GDP towards military spending.

Ukraine war latest: Ukraine strikes Russian missile base in Bryansk Oblast, damages Iskander launchers; Trump dismisses timeline to impose Russian sanctions

Key developments on June 5: * Ukraine strikes Russian missile base in Bryansk Oblast, damages Iskander launchers, Ukrainian military says * ‘Deadline is in my brain’ — Trump dismisses timeline to impose Russian sanctions * ‘Not destroyed but damaged’ — Russia claims it will repair bombers struck in Operation Spiderweb * Trump privately praises Ukraine’s drone

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Despite the US’s absence, the Ramstein meeting on 4 June kicked off a new era of military aid for Ukraine, with billions in investments and joint weapons production.

Ramstein moves forward without the US 

For the first time since the group’s creation, the US Secretary of Defense was absent from the meeting. 

The Pentagon explained that Pete Hegseth had a tight schedule, writes ArmyInform. He also won’t attend today’s NATO–Ukraine Council meeting, although he did arrive for the NATO ministerial and attended the Alliance’s headquarters on the morning of 5 June.

Nevertheless, the meeting results demonstrate that the rest of the allies remain committed to supporting Ukraine militarily, as confirmed by the announcement of new aid packages.

Ukraine and allies won’t just share weapons

The central takeaway from the Contact Group meeting was the agreement to create a joint defense production mechanism. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said the concept came from partners offering to help establish defense production involving Ukrainian companies.

“Our partners are ready to fully finance the production, and the products made under Ukrainian licenses will be sent to Ukraine as long as the war continues,” he explained.

During the discussions, however, the plan evolved into mutual investment: Ukrainian manufacturers will be able to invest in partner countries, while companies from these countries will be able to build large-scale factories in Ukraine.

Umerov noted that the idea is still new, with details under discussion and no official name yet.

“We’re calling it ‘Ramstein investments in the defense industry,’ but this is a strategic breakthrough,” the minister emphasized.

There are already specific agreements on joint production:

• A Western European company announced it will produce modern anti-Shahed missiles in Ukraine,
• The UK and Ukraine will jointly manufacture LMM missiles and launchers,
• Rheinmetall is building cutting-edge Lynx combat vehicles in Ukraine,
• Ukrainian companies are producing ammunition under Nammo licenses,
• SAAB, Kongsberg, KNDS, FFG, and Raytheon are all expanding their presence in Ukraine.

The SAAB produces Gripen fighter jets, Raytheon manufactures Patriot missiles, the only type capable of intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles, KNDS makes missiles for NASAMS, and FFG is notable for supplying military vehicles and equipment, including contributing Leopard 1A5 tanks. 

“Ukrainian drones have changed the situation on the battlefield, and now they will change how Ramstein countries prepare for future threats,” Umerov stated.

100,000 drones and a record £4.5 billion in aid

Before the session even began, London announced a new aid package with a special focus on drones: 100,000 drones for Ukraine’s Defense Forces by the end of 2025, ten times more than last year, with record investments of £350 million.

Additionally, 140,000 artillery shells have already been delivered. Another £247 million will go toward training Ukrainian troops as part of Operation Interflex, which has already trained 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

German long-range weapons to be built on Ukrainian soil

Germany, in turn, confirmed its previously announced €5 billion military aid package. It includes funding for long-range weapons to be produced in Ukraine, as well as the delivery of air defense systems, weapons, and ammunition.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius assured that supporting Ukraine remains a priority both for the new German government and for him personally.

War at Sea: Netherlands, Canada, and Belgium expand maritime and electronic warfare fronts

Support for Ukraine goes far beyond just two countries. The Netherlands is focusing on maritime security: €400 million will go toward a mine countermeasure ship, boats, and maritime drones for Ukraine.

Norway is prioritizing support for Ukraine’s defense industry, allocating $700 million for drones and contributing $50 million to the NSATU fund.

Canada will provide $45 million for drones, electronic warfare equipment, and will send Coyote and Bison armored vehicles to Ukraine.

Belgium, which hosted Ramstein for the second time, announced a long-term initiative — committing to €1 billion annually in aid to Ukraine through 2029 and the delivery of a mine countermeasure vessel.

Sweden allocated €440 million for international programs to purchase artillery shells, drones, and other weaponry for Ukraine.

The United States has refused to provide air defense support for a planned European “reassurance force” in postwar Ukraine, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

European allies, particularly the UK and France, had sought a firm security guarantee from the US to back a proposed “reassurance force” that would deter Russia from violating any potential ceasefire. However, discussions with US counterparts revealed that President Donald Trump is unlikely to offer the military support they had hoped for, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. 

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had emphasized the need for a US guarantee, stating in February:

“US security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again.”

Nonetheless, the lack of US commitment has forced Europe to adjust its approach.

Shift in deterrence planning

Despite downgraded expectations, UK and French officials hope the US will continue providing intelligence and border surveillance, Bloomberg reports. Some European officials believe Trump might act if European troops are directly targeted by Russia, but sources suggest he will not commit such guarantees in writing.

European governments have adapted their strategy, now relying on a mix of Ukrainian forces, allied training, and European troops and aircraft stationed along NATO’s eastern flank. Regular patrols in the Black Sea are also being considered part of this new framework to deter Russian aggression.

Coalition development and limitations

The coalition being led by the UK and France aims to safeguard Ukraine’s airspace, coastline, and key infrastructure using European troops positioned away from the border. However, the entire plan is contingent upon a future peace deal, which European officials view as increasingly unlikely.

While the UK and France have finalized details of the force’s deployment and operation, Bloomberg reports that the initiative remains suspended until ceasefire negotiations resume.

Of the 30 nations participating in the coalition — including non-European countries such as Canada, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand — only fifteen have so far pledged military resources like aircraft and naval vessels. Even fewer have committed troops.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will not attend a meeting of 50 defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels on 4 June.

This marks the first time in three years a Pentagon chief has skipped the Ukraine Defense Contact Group gathering since 2022, when the group was established on US initiative

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will convene at NATO headquarters on 4 June, three years after the  first gather.

The Contact Group initially brought together 40 countries. NATO and EU members joined with international partners to support Ukraine against Russian aggression.

The United Kingdom and Germany will convene the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at NATO headquarters this year. The previous Ramstein format meeting took place on 11 April in Brussels. The UK and Germany also convened that meeting.

The Trump administration has distanced itself from the group. The UK and Germany took over leadership of the group in February. This happened after Hegseth said the US would no longer play a role in the monthly meetings. 

Hegseth will be in Brussels for the meeting of NATO defense ministers on 5 June. His place at 4 June Ukraine Defense Contact Group will be taken by US ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker, according to a defense official and two people familiar with their plans.

The Ukraine gathering comes three weeks before NATO’s annual summit in The Netherlands on 24-25 June. Leaders from across the alliance will attend that two-day event. President Donald Trump will likely command an outsize presence as European leaders wait for the administration’s Europe and Russia policies to come into focus.

Ambassador Whitaker said last month that the US will begin talks with allies later this year about potential troop withdrawals from Europe. Nothing has been decided. Hegseth warned during his first visit to NATO in February that the American military presence in Europe was “not forever.” The comment sent ripples of concern throughout the alliance.

Hegseth also admonished European leaders for not spending enough on defense during that meeting. He controversially laid down preconditions for Ukraine to meet before entering peace talks with Russia. These included forgoing an invitation to join NATO and not asking for a return to its pre-invasion borders.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is urging European member nations to increase their ground-based air defense capacities by five times in order to mount a more effective response to the threat of Russian aggression, Bloomberg reported on June 3, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The reported request is NATO's latest bid to shore up European security amid heightened tensions with Russia and an increasingly uncertain U.S. commitment to Europe's defense.

NATO defense ministers will discuss the air defense boost at a gathering in Brussels on June 5, sources told Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity. A number of proposed defense increases are on the agenda for the meeting, which will set the stage for the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25.

The air defense target is a collective goal for NATO's European members, with varying levels from individual states, sources said. The timeframe for the fivefold increase is not yet clear.  

According to one senior European military official, NATO members face a shortage of ground-based air-defense systems to protect against drones, missiles, and fighter jets, having shifted away from these systems after the end of the Cold War.

"We are not at war, but we're not at peace either," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said during the Vilnius summit of the Bucharest Nine (B9) and the Nordic countries on June 2.

"We must continue to strengthen our deterrence and defense and that means pivoting toward a full war-fighting readiness."

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted European countries to hike defense spending in order to revive their military capabilities following decades of disarmament.

Ukrainian and Western officials have sounded the alarm on Russia's threat to both NATO and Europe, warning that an open clash between Moscow and NATO could break out two to four years after the full-scale war against Ukraine ends.

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv attacks Crimean bridge for 3rd time since beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion

Key developments on June 3: * Russia’s Crimean Bridge rocked by explosions, Ukraine’s SBU claims responsibility * Russian strike on downtown Sumy kills at least 4, injures 28, authorities say * Ukraine to deploy new units to counter Russian drone attacks, Air Force says * Ukrainian strike on Russian bombers alarmed Kremlin over nuclear

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 2 June that newly published Ukrainian and Russian memorandums highlight how far apart both sides remain after their latest negotiations the same day — with Russia repeating maximalist demands and Ukraine focusing on phased peace efforts and further dialogue.

Ukraine pushes for ceasefire, humanitarian steps, and lasting security

Ukraine’s memorandum, published by Suspilne on 1 June, outlines four core proposals:

• an unconditional ceasefire on land, sea, and in the air;
• confidence-building measures like returning all Ukrainian civilians and children and exchanging prisoners of war;
• a long-term peace agreement with firm security guarantees and full territorial integrity;
• and continued negotiations after the 2 June Istanbul meeting, including preparation for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.

Ukraine also insists on the right to join any security alliance, including NATO.

Nothing new: Russia repeats lang-grab recognition, regime-change, disarmament demands

Russia’s memorandum, published by TASS on 2 June, is split into three sections. The first demands Ukrainian recognition of Russia’s control over all of Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson oblasts, and Crimea — and complete withdrawal from these territories. It also calls for permanent Ukrainian neutrality, cancellation of all military alliances, a total ban on foreign military presence, and strict protections for Russian-speaking populations.

The second section outlines two ceasefire options. The first requires Ukraine to withdraw beyond current front lines in all four oblasts. The second demands Kyiv demobilize, end martial law, cancel all foreign military support and intelligence sharing, and organize presidential elections within 100 days of martial law ending.

The third section proposes a short ceasefire to recover bodies, followed by a 30-day timeline for Ukrainian withdrawal and eventual signing of a peace deal — only after Ukraine forms a new government.

ISW: Russia still aims for total Ukrainian capitulation

ISW notes that these demands are consistent with the Kremlin’s longstanding goals: territorial gains, military and political control over Ukraine, and the installation of a pro-Russian government. As of 2 June 2025, Russia occupies 79.8% of the four contested oblasts, while Ukraine retains around 21,600 square kilometers, including major cities like Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka, and Sloviansk. ISW adds that Russian forces have not shown the ability to capture cities of that scale since early 2022.

“Russian forces have not demonstrated the capacity to seize cities of this size since early 2022, and the Russian military is almost certainly incapable of conducting a successful offensive operation to seize one of these cities after three years of war and degradation,” the think tank wrote.

Child deportation claims briefly raised, dismissed by Russia

ISW also summarizes that Ukraine presented Russia with a list of hundreds of abducted children, which Russia dismissed. Kremlin negotiator Medinsky said the list included 331 names and denied mass abductions. Ukraine has verified the deportation of at least 19,456 children, with only 1,345 returned. Russia’s children’s commissioner previously claimed 700,000 Ukrainian children had been “accepted” by Russia.

Russian delegates call abducted children issue “show for childless European grandmothers”

Ukraine has been invited to the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague between June 24 and 25, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a June 2 online press conference attended by the Kyiv Independent.

"We were invited to the NATO summit. I think this is important," Zelensky said, adding that he held a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during the Vilnius summit of the Bucharest Nine (B9) and the Nordic countries on June 2.

"Now, (Foreign Minister Andrii) Sybiha will be speaking with his colleagues regarding infrastructure and what potential outcomes may arise from this summit in The Hague."

Zelensky did not specify who would be representing Ukraine at the summit or whether he would attend the event himself.

The statement follows speculations that the allies decided not to invite Ukraine to the annual summit due to opposition from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later denied the claims, and the Netherlands said it would welcome Zelensky's attendance.

At the previous NATO summit in Washington in 2024, Zelensky was a prominent presence, engaging directly with allied leaders. This year, the tone appears more cautious as NATO members weigh how to handle Ukraine's future in the alliance amid renewed questions about U.S. commitment.

Trump has claimed that Ukraine provoked the war by pursuing NATO membership, a narrative often used by Russian propaganda to justify its 2022 full-scale invasion. He also signaled plans to reduce U.S. military presence in Europe and has been reluctant to provide new military support to Kyiv.

Earlier reporting suggested that this year's communique may omit direct mention of both Russia and Ukraine — a contrast to past summits where Ukraine dominated the agenda.

‘Idiots’ — Zelensky slams Russia’s proposal for brief truce to retrieve fallen soldiers’ bodies

“They just don’t see a ceasefire as such at the moment,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 2, commenting on Russia’s proposal. “I think they’re idiots, because, fundamentally, a ceasefire is meant so that there are no dead.”

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia called the issue of deported children a “show for childless European grandmothers” during Istanbul talks and admitted to abducting several hundred youngest Ukrainians, UkrInform reports. 

“The first thing they said to us was ‘don’t put on a show for childless European grandmothers.’ We told them, ‘You have kidnapped 20,000.’ They said they didn’t kidnap 20,000, but at most a few hundred,” Zelenskyy says.

According to him, this is an important admission, not about the number, but the fact that the Russian delegation acknowledged having kidnapped children.

The Ukrainian president also said the Kyiv representatives handed over to the Russian side a list with the names of nearly 400 children at the Istanbul meeting.

“They offered to work on a plan regarding up to 10 children. That’s their idea of dealing with humanitarian issues,” Zelenskyy continues.

When asked whether the secret operation, Spiderweb, affected the behavior of the Russian delegation in Istanbul and whether they threatened Ukraine less, Zelenskyy responded that Moscow’s representatives behaved “a little calmer than before.”

Ukrainian drones hit four Russian military airfields, Belyayevo, Dyagilevo, Olenya, and Ivanovo. The plan allowed them to simultaneously strike the largest number of enemy aircraft, UNIAN reports. 

Regarding threats from the Russian side, Zelenskyy calls them futile. 

“Arrogant people behaved somewhat more modestly. We’ll see—maybe some more measures are needed, and then everyone will try to behave properly,” he adds.

At the Istanbul talks, the Russian delegation threatened to derail the peace process if Ukraine repeated operations like Spiderweb. 

Earlier, Ukrainian Pravda, citing a Ministry of Defense source, reported there was some progress in the talks, but Russia mainly focused on secondary issues, seeking ways to delay the peace process.

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy participated in today’s Bucharest Nine summit. At the gathering, Ukraine received an invitation to the NATO summit in The Hague.

In May, the Italian ANSA wrote that the US opposed inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the NATO summit in The Hague amid peace talks and Russia’s demands to promise not to approve Kyiv as a member of the Alliance. 

Allies confirm that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible at the Vilnius summit. At the Bucharest Nine and Northern European summit in Vilnius on 2 June, Ukraine’s partners reaffirmed that the country is firmly on course to join NATO and approved new aid packages, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.

The Bucharest Nine format includes Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Northern European nations Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland, and Sweden joined the group.

The summit aimed to align security positions, boost cooperation along NATO’s eastern flank, and discuss support for Ukraine ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague, UkrInform reports. 

President Zelenskyy briefed the participants of the Vilnius summit on the Security Service of Ukraine’s Web operation, calling it a demonstration of what modern warfare looks like and the importance of technological superiority.

Earlier, Swedish politician and former Prime Minister Carl Bildt, referring to this operation, said that even 007 movies haven’t imagined something like this. 

Russia cannot produce new Tu-160s or Tu-95s — only repair Soviet-era ones, says expert after Ukraine’s historic Spiderweb operation

The Bucharest Nine and Northern European countries pledged continued political, military, economic, and humanitarian support to Ukraine in pursuit of a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace.

The summit declaration also emphasized that the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague must demonstrate the Alliance’s unwavering support and commitment to Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed that all 32 NATO allies in Washington reaffirmed Ukraine’s irreversible path to membership, though no timeline has been set.

He added that Russia remains a long-term threat to NATO, rapidly building its military potential and working closely with China, North Korea, and Iran. To address these threats now and in the next 3, 5, or 7 years, NATO allies must increase defense spending and strengthen the defense industry.

The declaration adopted at the summit also condemns any form of support for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, calling for an end to all aid enabling it from China, Iran, and North Korea. 

Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.

He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.

This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.

Questioning the sovereignty of nations

Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.

Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.

Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.

The return of a dangerous word: “denazification”

The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.

Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.

NATO’s Achilles heel

From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.

Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.

Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.

Russia’s Baltic fleet faces a NATO wall

At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.

Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.

These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.

No longer just words

Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.

These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.

Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.

Russia repeats Ukraine’s playbook

The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.

What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.

The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.

Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.

The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.

For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 2 called on U.S. President Donald Trump to deliver a "strong new package" of sanctions against Russia if ongoing peace talks in Istanbul fail to bring results.

Speaking at a joint summit of the Bucharest Nine and Nordic leaders in Vilnius, Zelensky warned that if Moscow derails the negotiations, the West must be ready to act decisively.

"If the Istanbul meeting brings nothing, that clearly means strong new sanctions are urgently needed — from the EU's 18th package, and from the United States specifically, the strongest sanctions President Trump promised," Zelensky said.

"Sanctions should hit Russian energy — especially oil and tankers — price caps, of course, and also Russian banks and the financial sector overall."

Trump said on May 28 that the U.S. would soon know whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is serious about ending the war. If not, he warned, Washington would "respond a little bit differently."

The U.S. president said he had not yet imposed new sanctions on Russia because he believed a peace deal might be within reach. "If I think I'm close to getting a deal, I don't want to screw it up by doing that," he said, but added he is prepared to act if Moscow stalls further.

Ukrainian and Russian delegations prepare to meet in Istanbul on June 2 for a new round of peace talks. Though previous talks ended with the biggest prisoner exchange, they failed to produce progress toward a ceasefire or peace deal.

The Ukrainian side is expected to present a step-by-step peace proposal, starting with a 30-day ceasefire and the return of children deported to Russian-controlled areas. Russia has not submitted any formal memorandum ahead of the meeting and continues to demand a halt to Western military support for Kyiv — conditions that Ukraine deems unacceptable.

Zelensky made clear that Kyiv still aims to "achieve at least some progress," despite Russian foot-dragging and intensifying airstrikes. He also expressed gratitude to leaders working to keep the transatlantic alliance strong.

"We need the support of President Trump, the U.S. Congress, and the American people," he said. "Whatever happens in global competition, it is our shared duty — Europe's, America's, and everyone who values freedom — to defend it together."

The summit also focused on regional security ahead of the NATO summit this June. Zelensky emphasized that Russia must not be allowed to influence NATO's decisions or have any veto power over its enlargement — a rebuke to recent reports suggesting Moscow is seeking written guarantees that the alliance will stop expanding.

"One of the key principles of European security is that Russia must not have veto power over NATO decisions or influence over the allies or its members," Zelensky said. "That principle must remain in place."

While Russian officials continue to push for NATO to "stop" its expansion, most recently as a precondition for the ceasefire, alliance diplomats told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that no such discussions are taking place within NATO.

Zelensky said the upcoming NATO summit must deliver a message of strength and unity.

"Putin chose to stand against Europe, so he has no place in deciding its future," he said. "That must not change."

As Trump fails to sanction Moscow, few expect breakthrough during upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks

As Ukraine and Russia prepare for peace talks scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, few observers expect a breakthrough. While the U.S. and Ukraine have pushed for an unconditional ceasefire, the Kremlin has rejected it. Instead, Moscow has regularly voiced maximalist demands that are unlikely to be accepted by

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Vilnius on June 2 to participate in a summit of the Bucharest Nine (B9) and the Nordic countries, Zelensky's spokesperson Serhii Nykyforov confirmed for Ukrinform.

The summit is hosted by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and will also be attended by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has already arrived, according to Reuters.

The summit is taking place the same day as the second round of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul.

The Vilnius gathering will include leaders from the Baltic countries, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania. The summit will focus on preparations for the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague later in June and on allied support for Ukraine.

The Hague meeting, which will take place on June 24 and 25, will be the first annual NATO summit since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

The alliance faces uncertainty about continued U.S. commitment to NATO as the new administration has signaled plans to reduce its military deployment in Europe.

Trump has also been reluctant to provide new defense aid for Ukraine as he seeks to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow. Trump's views on Ukraine prompted speculations that Zelensky may not be invited to the summit, or that Ukraine's participation may be scaled down in some way.

Ukrainian delegates arrive in Istanbul for next round of peace talks with Russia

The negotiations follow the first round of Istanbul talks, which concluded on May 16 with an agreement on the largest prisoner exchange of the war but without any progress toward a peace deal.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with the latest election results and President Volodymyr Zelensky's reaction.

Karol Nawrocki, a right-wing nationalist supported by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, has won Poland's presidential election.

Nawrocki garnered 50.89% of the vote in the run-off election on June 1, narrowly defeating his liberal rival, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, according to Poland's National Election Commission. Trzaskowski earned 49.11% of the votes.

The closely-watched election has been widely seen as an inflection point in Poland's political trajectory, including its approach to Polish-Ukrainian relations. Nawrocki, known for adopting a "Trumpian" style of politics, has been criticized for parroting pro-Russian narratives due to his opposition to Ukraine's NATO membership.

Earlier in the night, Poland's elections were deemed too close to call, with exit polls showing showing Trzaskowski and Nawrocki virtually tied. Early polls showed Trzaskowski with a narrow lead, while more recent polls flipped the results in Nawrocki's favor.

Trzaskowski, whose campaign hinged on supporting Prime Minister Donald Tusk's democratic reforms, was the first to declare victory after an initial exit poll suggested he would secure a narrow win.

An exit poll by Ipsos for the broadcaster Polsat showed Trzaskowski, of the ruling centrist Civic Coalition (KO) party, winning by a slim margin of 50.3%.

"We won," Trzaskowski told party members after the first exit poll results came out. "I will bring people together, I will be constructive, I will be a president for all Poles. I will be your president."

However, a later poll flipped the results, showing Nawrocki narrowly ahead with 50.7%. Speaking to his supporters, Nawrocki also declared victory.

"Congratulations to (Karol Nawrocki) on winning the presidential election," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 2 after full results were announced.

"Poland, which preserves the strength of its national spirit and its faith in justice, has been and remains a pillar of regional and European security, and a strong voice defending freedom and dignity for every nation."

While Poland has a parliamentary system in which the president's authority is largely ceremonial, the Polish president is still able to veto legislation proposed by the parliament.

Moreover, the president plays a key role in foreign affairs and serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Polish presidents have historically been particularly active in shaping eastern policy.

While both candidates agreed on certain issues — such as increasing defense spending and supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia's full-scale invasion — they diverged on Ukraine's potential NATO accession.

Trzaskowski supported Ukraine joining NATO, whereas Nawrocki has signed an eight-point declaration that included a pledge to block Kyiv's membership in the alliance.

Although Trzaskowski has been seen as more "pro-Ukrainian," both presidential candidates have taken positions targeting Ukrainian refugees. Russian disinformation campaigns also targeted the election, particularly amplifying anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland.

The candidates also disagreed on several key social issues, highlighting deep divides in Polish politics and society more broadly.

As Trump fails to sanction Moscow, few expect breakthrough during upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks

As Ukraine and Russia prepare for peace talks scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul, few observers expect a breakthrough. While the U.S. and Ukraine have pushed for an unconditional ceasefire, the Kremlin has rejected it. Instead, Moscow has regularly voiced maximalist demands that are unlikely to be accepted by

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

Coordination of Ukrainian aircraft and air defense systems with NATO opens a new era of defensive capabilities in the war against Russia, 24 Channel reports. 

Ukraine’s F-16 and Mirage 2000 jets will now operate within a unified digital network alongside NATO air defense systems, enabling real-time exchange of critical information. This will ensure maximum coordination of actions in the air and significantly boost the country’s defensive potential.

Aviation expert Bohdan Dolintse emphasizes that the integration covers not only Ukrainian ground-based air defense systems but also satellite data and allied systems deployed near the Black Sea and on Ukraine’s western borders.

“This is the opportunity to integrate with ground air defense systems, satellite data… information can be automatically transmitted to aircraft and air defense systems,” Dolintse explains.

In other words, as the expert noted, having radar on the F-16 means the aircraft receives consolidated information from multiple sources and presents the pilot with the broadest, most complete situational picture, enhancing decision-making effectiveness and mission execution.

Earlier, Deputy Minister of Defense for Digitalization Kateryna Chernogorenko announced that Ukraine signed a licensing agreement to use NATO’s non-commercial software with the Link-16 data transmission protocol, a “military Wi-Fi” that ensures compatibility with allies and improves combat management, UNIAN reports. 

This step is extremely important for strengthening Ukraine’s air defense and deepening partnerships with NATO countries amid the war.