Several recent incidents across Europe were conducted by Russia or are likely attributable to Russia, ISW assessed in its 24 September report, though authorities have not officially linked the Polish and German incidents to Moscow.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has expanded into a parallel campaign of provocations against European defense and logistical infrastructure. The Kremlin is using drones, arson, and undersea cable sabotage to degrade Europe's will and ability to support Ukraine, while deliberately intensifying the frequency of airspace violations to erode the boundary between hybrid and kinetic war.

Drones over Moldova and Romania

Four Russian drones flew over Bukovyna and targeted an energy facility and border crossings with Moldova and Romania, Chernivtsi Oblast Military Administration head Ruslan Osypenko reported. Ukrainian forces shot down three. The fourth flew toward Suceava County in northeastern Romania.

A drone crashed in Cernița, Florești district, Moldova—preliminarily identified as a Russian Gerbera type, the first such device found in the country. It carried an onboard camera, hit a tree, and exploded, Moldovan police said. Romania's Defense Ministry reported a second aerial vehicle entered Romanian airspace for four minutes and crashed near Solca in the same border region; geolocated footage confirmed it was also a Gerbera, ISW noted. Poland evacuated the Hrubieszów and Dorohusk border crossings for 30 minutes, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. Three countries were put on alert by a single night of Russian strikes.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

Sabotage in Poland and Germany

A fire engulfed the power system and backup generator at a Starlink ground station in Wola Krobowska, central Poland, on the evening of 23 September. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski confirmed it was sabotage aimed at cutting internet access, including for Ukraine's military. Authorities have not identified who was responsible, but the act aligns with Russia's "new" doctrine of attacks, Gawkowski said. The station is now operating normally.

German authorities suspended operations at Berlin-Brandenburg airport for 45 minutes the same evening after staff reported a drone sighting, Die Zeit reported. Federal police could not confirm it. ISW assessed both incidents fit Russia's wider pattern of sabotage against European defense assets, though neither has been officially attributed to Russia.

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Russian attack puts three countries on alert as drones enter Moldova and Romania

Western intelligence warnings

A Lithuanian Defense Ministry source reported on 23 September that Russia could launch Gerbera drones from a shipping container in the Mediterranean against Spain, France, and Italy. Danish Defense Intelligence assessed on 24 September that Russia will intensify its hybrid war in coming months, including destructive cyber attacks and sabotage carrying a high risk of casualties, and that there is a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military attack on a NATO border state. It sees no indications of an outright invasion. The CIA reportedly warned Poland that Russia may sabotage underwater cables to disrupt its banking system, according to Newsweek Polska journalists.

NATO tracked and confronted Russian submersibles rehearsing deployment of a new cable-disabling weapon near Svalbard in spring 2026—no cables were damaged, but the operation demonstrated Moscow's intent, Reuters reported. Shadow fleet vessels likely served as drone-launch platforms for incursions into NATO airspace, ISW noted.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

ISW said it has not yet seen evidence that Russia has conducted the attacks the warnings describe.

Denmark's assessment—that a limited Russian military strike on a NATO border state could come in the coming months—suggests the boundary between hybrid provocations and military action is narrower than European policy has assumed. ISW's synthesis reframes what governments have treated as separate incidents into one campaign.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

TAF Industries signed a joint-venture memorandum with Danish firm Upteko for production but says bureaucracy is slowing the process. Meanwhile, Resist.UA agreed to invest in BlueShadow, a Danish maritime-defense startup whose founder commanded a US nuclear submarine and whose engineering team works largely in Ukraine, Defender Media reported.

Ukraine's defense industry has outgrown much of its own 2022-era hardware in two years of rapid wartime iteration, but a government fee of 20-30% on export permits and over 200 stalled co-production bids have left the country's foreign arms sales far behind battlefield demand. Deals like the two in Denmark route Ukrainian technology into allied markets without waiting for Kyiv's export apparatus to catch up.

Ukrainian first-person-view drones, made on Danish soil

Drone maker TAF Industries plans to produce its first batch in Denmark by the end of 2026, through a joint venture with local firm Upteko. The two signed a memorandum in August 2026, but paperwork on both sides has slowed things down.

"We need to pass a fairly large number of bureaucratic procedures to make it possible," chief business development officer Mykhailo Diachenko told NordicDefenceWatch.

He called the year-end target reachable, "though maybe it will look more like a miracle."

TAF wants footholds in other countries that support Ukraine. It has started the process in Norway and is negotiating with Sweden's Recas. Diachenko said the goal is local production plus sharing Ukrainian combat experience and technology with European partners. TAF builds FPV drones, with capacity near 1 million units a year.

A Ukrainian fund bets on Odesa's sea defense

Ukrainian fund Resist.UA signed a letter of intent to invest an undisclosed sum in Danish maritime-defense startup BlueShadow's €2 million ($2.29 million) pre-seed round, the company announced. BlueShadow's software collects data from maritime sensors, commercial feeds, and open sources, merges them into a single operational picture, and uses AI to detect threats, Defender Media reported.

The company has also built an open software platform it says can help intercept Shahed-type drones. BlueSentry, designed to protect ports, offshore wind farms, undersea cables, and maritime borders from hybrid attack, is one product that the company plans to launch in the Baltic and North seas in October. BlueDragon, now in prototype testing with Defense Ministry certification targeted for late 2026 and deployment planned for spring 2027, is designed to defend Odesa with autonomous swarms of armed sea drones meant to shoot down Russian attack drones.

Founder Charles Maher is a former US Navy submarine commander who ran a nuclear-powered boat, Defender Media reported. Almost his entire engineering team works in Ukraine, drawing on more than 15 Ukrainian suppliers. Resist.UA this summer launched Resist 2.0, an Estonia-based fund aiming to raise €50 million for Ukrainian defense-tech companies.

A Russian frigate fired two flares at a Danish military helicopter during a routine photographic mission in international waters off Denmark, with one flare passing close to the aircraft, Denmark’s armed forces said.

The incident comes amid a growing series of confrontational incidents involving Russia and NATO countries, as Western officials warn that Moscow is becoming increasingly willing to test the alliance’s defenses and intimidate its members.

Flare passed close to Danish helicopter

The Danish Fennec helicopter was conducting routine photographic coverage of the Russian frigate when the ship fired two flares at it, according to Denmark’s Armed Forces. The incident occurred off Gedser, at the southern tip of Denmark, on 14 September.

One of the flares passed close to the helicopter. The Danish military did not report any injuries or damage and said it had no further comment on the incident.

Flares are pyrotechnic devices normally used as attention signals at sea.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen called the incident “completely unacceptable” and said Russia’s ambassador had been summoned for talks.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called it “reckless action from Russia towards Danish military” during a routine overflight, saying Russian actions were intended to “intimidate and divide.”

Russia’s ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, disputed Copenhagen’s account, telling DR that Moscow would investigate and accusing the Danish helicopter of provocative actions near the Russian frigate.

Another incident in a growing pattern

The episode comes as Russia’s behavior toward NATO countries has become increasingly confrontational in recent months.

NATO fighters have repeatedly been scrambled over Russian military aircraft in the Baltic region, while European countries have dealt with airspace incidents, suspected Russian drones and other security threats linked to the war against Ukraine.

On 15 September, NATO aircraft also shot down a drone over Lithuania after it entered the country’s airspace from the direction of Belarus. The drone was believed to have been carrying an explosive device.

NATO spokesperson Allison Hart described the Danish incident as “another irresponsible Russian action” intended to intimidate the alliance, adding that NATO would continue defending its territory and supporting Ukraine.

The incidents are unfolding as Russia continues its full-scale war against Ukraine and expands pressure beyond the battlefield. Western officials have increasingly warned that Moscow is using military intimidation and other forms of pressure against European countries while testing how far it can push NATO without triggering a direct confrontation.

The flare incident comes amid a broader deterioration in European security, with Russian military activity increasingly creating dangerous encounters with NATO forces.

Kyiv and Copenhagen signed a landmark agreement on July 4 that allows Ukrainian defense companies to open production facilities in Denmark, Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin announced.

"This is a unique case of international cooperation for the Ukrainian defense industry," Smetanin wrote on Facebook, following the signing ceremony in Copenhagen alongside Danish Industry Minister Morten Bodskov.

The deal marks the first time Ukrainian defense technologies will be exported abroad specifically for supply to Ukraine's own Armed Forces, he said.

A year ago, Denmark became the first country to fund weapons production by Ukrainian manufacturers. Now, it has become the first to host Ukrainian arms production lines on its territory, Smetanin added.

"Today, it has become the first country to which Ukraine exports its own defense technologies for production, scaling, and supply to the Ukrainian army," he said.

The agreement is part of Ukraine's broader effort to internationalize its defense production. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 21 that Kyiv would soon begin exporting defense technologies and opening weapons production lines in partner countries.

To scale up domestic and international production, Zelensky has called on foreign partners to finance new projects and match Ukraine's rapidly growing manufacturing capacity.

Denmark has been a key backer of Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. In February 2024, Copenhagen signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Kyiv, pledging long-term defense cooperation until Ukraine secures NATO membership.

‘Nothing but terror and murder’ — Russia pounds Kyiv with record overnight drone, missile attack, 1 dead, 23 injured

Fires broke out across the city as Russia attacked the capital overnight on July 4. At least 23 people have been injured, with 14 of the victims hospitalized.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Ukraine signed a major deal with U.S. company Swift Beat to co-produce hundreds of thousands of drones this year, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 3 during his visit to Denmark.

The long-term strategic partnership agreement was signed by Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Swift Beat, in Denmark on the same day.

Under the deal, the company will produce various kinds of unmanned aerial vehicles for Ukraine, including those designed to intercept Russian drones and missiles, reconnaissance, attack, and other drones, Zelensky said in a statement published on the website of the President's Office.

"The key priority is interceptor drones that have already proven effective in Ukraine," Zelensky said. "We've tested models from several companies, and now we're signing serious contracts."

Swift Beat will increase its production capacity, aiming to produce hundreds of thousands of drones for Ukraine this year, with plans to scale up production in 2026, according to Zelensky.

"Modern drones will be supplied to Ukraine as a priority, on special terms and at cost," Zelensky said.

The announcement comes just a day after the U.S. Defense Department (DOD) has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other weapons previously promised to Kyiv. Ukraine has been trying to negotiate buying U.S. weapons for months after U.S. President Donald Trump, who has opposed military aid to Kyiv, took office in January.

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Swift Beat has a significant presence in Ukraine, according to Zelensky's office. It specializes in autonomous AI-powered drones and cooperates with Ukrainian engineers and the military, conducting drone testing on Ukrainian territory, the statement reads.

Zelensky arrived in Denmark on July 3 to mark the country's assumption of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Zelensky also said that during his visit, he plans to raise the issue of political blockages hindering Ukraine's path to joining the European Union.

"We're ready to open three accession clusters and want to start with one now, in the very near future. But political blockages remain, purely political," he said.

While EU member states agreed to take into account the European Commission's assessment that Ukraine is ready to open the first, Fundamentals cluster, the process remains stalled due to Hungary's refusal to grant unanimous support.

Ukraine applied for EU membership in 2022 and was granted candidate status shortly thereafter, but full negotiations require the approval of all 27 EU member states.

Denmark has been a key backer of Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. In February 2024, Copenhagen signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Kyiv, pledging long-term defense cooperation until Ukraine secures NATO membership.

Zelensky said he expects Denmark to expand its financial support for Ukraine's drone and missile production initiatives.

"What we've just signed requires significant funding. I'm counting on our relationship with Denmark," the president said.

The Ukrainian president will also participate in official events commemorating Denmark's presidency of the Council. According to Danish broadcaster DR, the events will be attended by Denmark's royal family, government officials, and EU leaders.

‘One of Russia’s most critical targets’ — Ukraine confirms strike on missile battery plant in Lipetsk

The Energia plant in Yelets produces parts for ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as batteries for drones and glide bombs. The factory was previously targeted multiple times this past May.

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov signed a Letter of Intent on June 24 with his Danish counterpart Troels Lund Poulsen to launch Ukrainian defense production in Denmark, Umerov announced on Facebook.

The document envisages facilitating the deployment of Ukrainian defense companies in Denmark and integrating of the defense industries of both countries through the "Build with Ukraine" initiative.

Denmark has already allocated $47 million for the project, and Ukraine's partners will provide further funding for production.

"I thank the Danish government for its trust, steadfast support of Ukraine, and commitment to developing a deep partnership between our countries," Umerov said. "This partnership enhances the security of Ukraine, Denmark, and all of Europe — today and into the future."

The agreement between Ukraine and Denmark also provides coordination between the Danish Defense Ministry, the Business and Industry Ministry, and the Foreign Ministry to integrate Ukrainian enterprises into the European defense system.

"By providing Ukrainian defense companies the opportunity to start production in Denmark, we are creating a basis for close cooperation between defense companies in both countries. This will also provide the Danish Armed Forces with access to the latest technologies and the experience of Ukraine," Poulsen said.

Denmark has pioneered efforts to support Ukraine by investing in its defense industry, creating the so-called "Danish model" of purchasing arms for Kyiv from Ukrainian producers. Copenhagen has provided around $9.8 billion in military aid under its Ukraine Fund for the years 2023-2028.

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The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post