For years, Ukraine’s air defenses blunted Russia’s attempts to terrorize its cities from the sky. Now, after four years of adaptation, Moscow is fielding faster drones, massing ballistic missiles, and finding new ways to overwhelm a Ukrainian air-defense network running short of the interceptors needed to stop them.

Russia’s aerial campaign is becoming harder to contain just as its attacks are killing more Ukrainian civilians. July recorded at least 437 civilian deaths, the highest monthly toll since the early months of the full-scale invasion, with UN monitors pointing to Russian missile and drone attacks as a key factor.

That shift is visible most clearly in Russia’s rapidly expanding use of jet-powered Geran drones. These drones can exceed 400 km/h, making them significantly harder to intercept than the slower, propeller-driven Shaheds Ukraine has spent years learning to counter. Russia reportedly launched as many as 2,850 jet-powered drones in August alone.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia’s escalation with the new drones is becoming “increasingly terrorist” and called for urgent efforts to develop defenses against them.

While Ukraine’s Western partners have taken steps to strengthen its air defenses, Russia has spent the same period adapting and expanding its ability to attack from the air. The gap is becoming increasingly visible in the skies over Ukrainian cities.

Ukrainian civilians are already paying the price

Russia has increasingly turned its ability to strike deep inside Ukraine into a weapon against civilian life itself: hitting residential areas, fuel stations, railways, energy infrastructure and other sites across cities far from the front.

Since late August, Kyiv has faced near-continuous Russian drone attacks, with Russia increasingly sending waves of drones against the capital throughout the day and night. The shift has made air-raid alerts, explosions and disruptions to daily life a near-constant reality.

For Ukrainians, Russia’s evolving aerial campaign is measured in destroyed homes, injuries, deaths, and lives permanently changed. 

In Kyiv, it has also changed everyday life: explosions interrupt sleep and work, people run for shelter as strikes unfold overhead, and the threat of another attack is never far away.

And the pressure is no longer confined to Kyiv. Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are all facing increasingly sophisticated combinations of drones and missiles.

The danger is not simply that Russia is launching more weapons. It is that Moscow has spent years learning which weapons can penetrate Ukraine’s defenses, how to combine them, and how to force Ukraine to spend its most valuable interceptors.

Zelenskyy’s warning captures the urgency: “You cannot simply wait for Russia to perfect its repertoire of killings.”

Russia is adapting faster than Ukraine can rebuild its shield

The jet-powered Geran is only one part of the problem.

Russia has also dramatically increased its use of ballistic missiles. Reuters reported that 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles were launched in July and the first eight days of August, with more than half being inaccurate RM48U training missiles repurposed for combat. 

Ukraine has virtually exhausted its US-made Patriot interceptors, the only systems in its arsenal capable of reliably intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles, while Moscow continues launching them at a high tempo.

The result is a more complex aerial threat: fast drones that are difficult to intercept, ballistic missiles that are extremely difficult to stop, and large waves of cheaper weapons that can force Ukraine to expend scarce defensive ammunition.

Ukraine is developing new ways to counter them, including interceptor drones specifically designed to hunt down the jet-powered Gerans. But Ukraine is developing these systems as Russia is already deploying its new weapons at scale.

Western countries have continued providing air-defense assistance. Canada, for example, announced a C$350 million package for interceptors earlier this month. But Ukrainian officials continue to say that deliveries remain far below what is needed to protect the country from Russia’s expanding aerial campaign.

Russia has spent years expanding the weapons it can use against Ukraine, while Ukraine and its partners are still racing to develop and supply the systems needed to stop them.

The threat Europe helped Russia develop

Some of Ukraine’s Western partners are now confronting a threat Russia has spent years developing over Ukraine: an increasingly sophisticated aerial arsenal that could eventually be turned against them.

European officials and defense analysts are increasingly warning that NATO countries themselves lack enough air and missile defenses to deal with a large Russian attack. 

Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs recently said Europe is not sufficiently prepared for the kind of drone and aerial warfare Russia has developed in Ukraine, including because of delays in supplying Ukraine with critical air-defense systems.

Those concerns are no longer hypothetical. On 14 September, an Italian NATO fighter jet shot down a Russian-made Geran-2 drone over Lithuania after it entered the country from Belarus. Poland and Romania have also faced Russian drone incursions since 2025.

This creates a problem that is partly of Europe’s own making. Russia has had more than four years to refine its drones, missiles, production lines and tactics while Ukraine’s partners have often been too slow to provide enough weapons to counter those systems as they were developed and deployed at scale.

In that same period, many European countries continued trading with Russia, particularly in fossil fuels, allowing Moscow to keep generating revenue from European markets even as those same governments were providing military aid to Ukraine.

The result is a Russian aerial arsenal that is more capable than the one Ukraine faced in 2022 – while some of the countries now worried about a future Russian threat lack the air defenses needed to protect themselves.

Western governments helped Ukraine fight Russia’s air war, but not at a scale or speed sufficient to prevent Russia from adapting. 

Ukrainian civilians are paying the price for the time Russia was given to expand and refine its aerial warfare. Now, Europe is having to prepare for the possibility that those capabilities could one day be used against it. 

Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight on 17 September, striking Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa Oblast, among other regions.

The attack damaged civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, including apartment buildings and educational facilities, while water infrastructure was also affected. Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko reported 20 people injured, including at least two children.

Water infrastructure hit as winter concerns grow

The overnight strikes affected Kyiv’s water infrastructure, temporarily disrupting water supply on the left bank and reducing pressure in some areas on the right bank.

Kyivvodokanal said its specialists restored operations and that water supply is now fully functioning across the capital.

The damage comes as Ukrainian authorities have warned that Russia could target critical water infrastructure as winter approaches, potentially adding another major threat to civilians alongside attacks on Ukraine’s electricity and heating systems.

Russia has repeatedly used winter strikes to target Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, particularly electricity and heating, leaving civilians without power, heat, and basic services during freezing weather. 

This winter is expected to bring a heavier campaign: Russia has intensified its attacks since the summer, increasingly targeting food-related infrastructure and supplies in addition to energy facilities.

No missiles intercepted, once again

Russia launched ballistic and cruise missiles alongside 157 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy drones, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.

The ballistic missiles included Iskander-M, S-400 and North Korean KN-23 missiles launched from Russia’s Bryansk and Voronezh oblasts. Russia also launched four Kalibr cruise missiles and Oniks missiles.

Ukraine’s air defenses reported destroying or suppressing 131 aerial targets, but none of the ballistic weapons were among those intercepted. The 131 targets consisted of seven Bandеrol/Dan-T missiles and 124 Shahed, Gerbera, and other drones.

Once again, Ukraine intercepted none of the Russian ballistic missiles, underscoring the country’s shortage of high-end air-defense interceptors needed to defend against Russia’s increasing ballistic missile attacks.

However, Ukraine’s General Staff reported strikes on two of the S-400 systems that Russia uses to launch ballistic missiles from Bryansk Oblast. 

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Ukraine strikes two Russian S-400 launchers in Bryansk. The same systems were used to attack Kyiv overnight.

Kyiv hit across several districts

Kyiv police reported damage in the Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Solomianskyi districts.

Apartment buildings, educational facilities, a municipal building, vehicles, and railway tracks were damaged. Most of the 16 injured people were residents of a damaged 16-story apartment building in Dniprovskyi district.

The victims included a 10-year-old girl and a 12-year-old boy.

Kyiv’s military administration also reported a strike on a warehouse building in Podilskyi district.

The Air Force said Russian missiles and attack drones hit 36 locations across Ukraine, while debris from intercepted targets fell at five locations.

Russia also hits Odesa and Zaporizhzhia

Russia’s overnight attack on Odesa Oblast continued for much of the night, injuring seven people, including children aged four and 13, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper reported.

One Russian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in Odesa, destroying 10 apartments on the 14th–16th floors and damaging 11 cars. Three people were injured there, including the four-year-old child. 

Other strikes damaged at least five residential buildings, a kindergarten, a dormitory, a restaurant’s outdoor area, warehouses, garages, and cars. An elderly woman and the 13-year-old child were among four other people injured.

Zaporizhzhia was also hit by Russian missiles, with three people injured – a woman and two men. The missiles struck industrial facilities, partially damaging buildings and causing a fire at one site.

Later in the day, Russia attacked the village of Storchove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with guided aerial bombs. One bomb hit a private house and outbuildings, killing a 51-year-old woman and injuring a 70-year-old man. The strike destroyed property the family had accumulated over decades, according to the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration.

Russia also struck a passenger bus in Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone near a public transport stop. Five people were injured. A regional official said Russia had “once again chosen not a military target, but people who were simply traveling about their business.”

Ukrainian forces struck two Russian S-400 launchers in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast on 16–17 September, Ukraine’s General Staff reported. These same systems were used to launch missiles at Kyiv last night.

Ukraine faces severe shortages of high-end air-defense interceptors capable of countering Russia’s ballistic missiles, making strikes on the launchers themselves increasingly important. Russia has used S-400 systems to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, so destroying these systems can reduce Russia’s ability to carry out future attacks.

S-400 missile systems hit

The General Staff said Ukrainian Defense Forces struck two S-400 launchers near Vygonichi in Bryansk Oblast as part of a series of attacks on Russian military targets.

The strikes took place as Russia launched another major overnight attack against Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russian forces used S-400, Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles launched from Bryansk and Voronezh oblasts, among other weapons.

The S-400 is a Russian long-range surface-to-air missile system designed to detect and engage aircraft and missiles. It was originally designed for air defense, but Russia has also used S-400 systems to launch ballistic missiles for strikes against Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv.

Kyiv Oblast was among the main targets of last night’s Russian attack.

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One alternative to air defense: Ukraine strikes Russian Bastion system used to attack Ukrainian cities from Crimea

Ukraine targets Russian military infrastructure

The S-400 launchers were among several Russian military targets struck by Ukrainian forces on 16–17 September, the General Staff reported.

Near occupied Donetsk, Ukrainian forces hit a Russian site used to store, prepare, and launch attack drones. They also struck Russian logistics warehouses in Kurakhivka, Nova Mariivka, and Luhansk.

Ukrainian forces additionally hit Russian personnel concentration areas near Strilkove in occupied Kherson Oblast and Druzhne in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

The General Staff said operations against key Russian military targets are continuing.