Ukraine has turned a Russian Black Sea base into a burning metal. The Ukrainian Navy has reported that it has struck an elite Russian special forces unit stationed on the occupied Sivash drilling platform near annexed Crimea, Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. 

Ukrainian drones are driving the Russians from the Black Sea towers

In October 2025, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that Russia deployed its naval detachment “Española” to the Boiko Towers.

The group presents itself as Russia’s potential “first maritime private military company” and is reportedly seeking legal status under a future Russian law on private military companies.

According to available information, Española was created under Sergey Aksyonov, the Kremlin-appointed head of occupied Crimea, to strengthen coastal defense.

Along with Russian surveillance and reconnaissance equipment, a Russian anti-tank missile crew was destroyed,” the Ukrainian Navy reported.

Now, Russian propagandists are attempting to portray this strike as a Ukrainian loss, claiming a Ukrainian Navy boat was destroyed by a Lancet loitering munition.

In reality, Ukrainian forces successfully used a kamikaze drone to hit the occupiers' position.

Russia uses "peace initiatives" to create an illusion of control and victory. In recent days, Russian generals reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin about the alleged encirclement of three Ukrainian cities — Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Kupiansk, 24 Kanal reports, citing Russian media.

Ukraine has refuted the occupiers’ claims. In response, the Kremlin leader decided to “prove” he wasn’t lying, and issued a bizarre order.

Russia’s Defense Ministry of Defense received Putin’s order to ensure the passage of foreign journalists to visit areas in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Kupiansk, where, supposedly, Ukrainian troops are “encircled.”

“Encirclement exists only in Putin’s imagination”: Ukraine responds

According to the Ukrainian defense forces, Russian command is prepared, if necessary, to halt combat operations for 5–6 hours in these areas.

The occupiers also reportedly expressed readiness to provide corridors for the unrestricted entry and exit of groups of foreign, including Ukrainian, journalists, on the condition of safety guarantees for both reporters and Russian soldiers.

Victor Trehubov, Head of Communications for the Joint Forces Group, has reacted to the situation in Kupiansk and Putin’s absurd order. 

“How can one even respond to that? The encirclement of Kupiansk exists only in Putin’s imagination,” the officer said.

He added that there is currently no question of any “encirclement” of the city.

“Ilovaisk-2”: Ukrainian Foreign Ministry's warning

At the same time, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi recalled Russia’s treacherous actions in Ilovaisk.

“Frankly, I wouldn’t recommend any reporters trust any of Putin’s proposals for ‘corridors’ in combat zones. I saw with my own eyes how such promises are staged on 29 August 2014, in Ilovaisk. Putin’s only goal is to prolong the war,” wrote Tykhyi.

Back then, Russians promised Ukrainian forces a safe withdrawal from the Ilovaisk encirclement through a humanitarian corridor. Ukrainian troops began withdrawing in organized columns along the agreed routes, but soon, Russian forces opened fire.

During the battles for Ilovaisk in August 2014, 366 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 429 were wounded.

Such “ceasefires for the cameras” could once again serve as cover for war crimes.

A leaked 12-point peace proposal circulating in European capitals aims to pause Russia’s war in Ukraine within just 24 hours. RFE/RL reports that the draft, initiated by Finland and developed by over 20 pro-Ukraine countries, envisions freezing the front line, barring Ukraine from taking back occupied territories by military means, and establishing long-term negotiations on the future of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.

Ceasefire first: freezing the war overnight

The plan is structured in two phases — ceasefire and negotiations. The first phase outlines that hostilities would stop “24 hours after the parties have accepted this plan,” RFE/RL reports. At the start of the proposed ceasefire, the line of contact would then be frozen, with no further military movements allowed. Kyiv and Moscow would commit to a mutual nonaggression pact, meaning Russia must stop attacks while Ukraine agrees not to retake occupied areas such as the regions of Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia by military means.

Ceasefire monitoring would begin immediately under US leadership using satellites, drones, and other technologies. A Trump-chaired “Board of Peace” is proposed to oversee the process, a concept reportedly borrowed from a recent plan for Gaza.

According to RFE/RL, confidence-building measures include the lifting of selected symbolic sanctions after the ceasefire holds for an agreed period. Russia could be readmitted to international organizations such as the International Olympic Committee or the Council of Europe, which expelled Moscow in 2022. The plan also proposes transferring control of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to an unnamed third party, with negotiations on returning it to Ukraine.

Negotiation phase: security zones, occupied land talks, and Russian narratives

Once the ceasefire is in place, the second phase would begin with an armistice and formal negotiations. These talks would determine a final line of contact, which would remain in effect until a long-term governance agreement for the occupied territories is reached. RFE/RL says that civilian multinational missions would monitor both sides of the security zone established along this line, where no military activity would be permitted.

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One of the points includes undisclosed security guarantees — an element the so-called Coalition of the Willing has been shaping since spring. Another proposed element calls for a high-level dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow “to increase mutual understanding and respect for diversity of language, culture, and religion.”

A particularly controversial point involves initiating talks on “permanent governance of the occupied territories.” Many EU capitals view this as incompatible with Ukraine’s territorial integrity and oppose the idea of legalizing Russian control over parts of Ukrainian land.

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Frozen Russian assets and the question of compensation

The penultimate point in the draft addresses reconstruction. A new fund for Ukraine would be created, and frozen Russian assets could be used to finance rebuilding. As RFE/RL notes, over €200 billion (around $233 billion) are currently held in the West. These could be returned to Russia only after an agreement on war damage compensation is reached between Kyiv and Moscow.

EU official: “There won’t be peace — that’s Putin’s one-point-plan”

Despite the detailed proposal, RFE/RL quotes one European official admitting that the plan’s chances of success are “probably not much.” While some hope the United States might support elements of it, most diplomats doubt that the Kremlin will accept any of the core terms. 

“We can have a 12-point-plan, but there won’t be peace — that is Putin’s one-point-plan,” a European diplomat said.

In recent weeks, several small-scale protests have taken place across Russia, a rare sight since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Oddly, the demonstrators waved Soviet flags while holding banners demanding unrestricted access to digital platforms. It also remains unclear how the left-wing organizers secured permits to protest against the Kremlin’s latest move to further lock down and control the country’s online space.

Russia is in the process of constructing the most comprehensive digital surveillance state outside of China, deploying a three-layered approach that enforces the use of state-approved communication platforms, implements AI-powered censorship tools, and creates targeted tracking systems for vulnerable populations. The system is no longer about just restricting information, it's about creating a digital ecosystem where every click, conversation, and movement can be monitored, analyzed, and controlled by the state. 

From September 1, 2025, Russia crossed a critical threshold in digital authoritarianism by mandating that its state-backed messenger app Max be pre-installed on all smartphones, tablets, computers, and smart TVs sold in the country. 

Max functions as Russia's answer to China's WeChat, offering government services, electronic signatures, and payment options on a single platform. But unlike Western messaging apps with end-to-end encryption, Max lacks such protections and has been accused of gaining unauthorized camera access, with users reporting that the app turns on their device cameras "every 5-10 minutes" without permission. The integration with Gosuslugi, Russia's public services portal, means Max is effectively the only gateway for basic civil services: paying utility bills, signing documents, and accessing government services.

As Max was rolled out, WhatsApp and Telegram users found themselves unable to make voice calls, with connections failing or dropping within seconds. Officials justified blocking these features by citing their use by "scammers and terrorists," while a State Duma deputy warned that WhatsApp should "prepare to leave the Russian market".

The Amina Experiment

The most chilling aspect of Russia's digital control system may be its targeted surveillance of migrants through another app called the Amina app. Starting September 1, foreign workers from nine countries, including Ukraine, Georgia, India, Pakistan and Egypt, must install an app that transmits their location to the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

This creates a two-tiered digital citizenship system. While Russian citizens navigate Max's surveillance, migrants face constant geolocation tracking. If the Amina app doesn't receive location data for more than three days, individuals are removed from official registries and added to a "controlled persons registry". This designation bars them from banking, marriage, property ownership, and enrolling children in schools, effectively creating digital exile within Russia's borders.

Russia's censorship apparatus has evolved beyond human moderators to embrace artificial intelligence for content control. Roskomnadzor, the executive body which supervises communications, has developed automated systems that scan "large volumes of text files" to detect references to illegal drugs in books and publications. Publishers can now submit manuscripts to AI censors before publication, receiving either flagged content or an all-clear message.

This represents a fundamental shift in how authoritarian states approach information control. As one publishing industry source told Meduza: "We've always assumed that the censors and the people who report books don't actually read them. But neural networks do. So now it's a war against the A.I.s: how to craft a book so the algorithm can't flag it, but readers still get the message".

The scope of Russia's digital surveillance ambitions became clear when the FSB, the country’s intelligence service, demanded round-the-clock access to Yandex's Alisa smart home system. While Yandex was only fined 10,000 rubles (about $120) for refusing – a symbolic amount that suggests the real pressure comes through other channels – the precedent is significant. The demand for access to Alisa represented what digital rights lawyer Evgeny Smirnov called an unprecedented expansion of the Yarovaya Law, which previously targeted mainly messaging services. Now, virtually any IT infrastructure that processes user data could fall under FSB surveillance demands.

The Broader Pattern 

Russia's digital control system follows the Chinese model but adapts it for different circumstances. While China built its internet infrastructure "with total state control in mind," Russia is retrofitting an existing system that was initially developed by private actors. This creates both opportunities and vulnerabilities.

The government's $660 million investment in upgrading its TSPU censorship system over the next five years signals long-term commitment to digital control. The goal is to achieve "96% efficiency" in restricting access to VPN circumvention tools. Meanwhile, new laws make VPN usage an aggravating factor in criminal cases and criminalizes "knowingly searching for extremist materials" online.

The infrastructure Russia is building today, from mandatory state messengers to AI censors to migrant tracking apps represents the cutting edge of digital authoritarianism. At least 18 countries have already imported Chinese surveillance technology, but Russia's approach offers a lower-cost alternative that's more easily transferable.. The combination of mandatory state apps, AI-powered censorship, and precision targeting of vulnerable populations creates a blueprint that other authoritarian regimes are likely to study and adapt.

To understand the impetus behind Russia’s digital Panopticon, look at Nepal: Russian analysts could barely contain their glee as they watched Nepal's deadly social media protests unfold. "Classic Western handiwork!" they declared, dismissing the uprising as just another "internet revolution" orchestrated by foreign powers. But their commentary revealed Moscow's deeper anxiety: what happens when you lose control of the narrative?

Russia isn't building its surveillance state to prevent what happened in Nepal, they're building it because they already lived through their own version. The 2021 Navalny protests proved that Russia's digitally native generation could organize faster than the state could respond. The difference is that Moscow's solution wasn't to back down like Nepal's now fallen government did. It was to eliminate the human networks first, then build the digital cage.

A version of this story was published in last week’s Coda Currents newsletter. Sign up here.

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