U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg will meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the coming days, Reuters reported on June 17, citing four sources familiar with the matter.

Kellogg will meet Lukashenko in a visit to Belarus as peace talks to bring an end to Russia's war against Ukraine remain inconclusive, Reuters reported.

In February, U.S. Deputy Assistant State Secretary Christopher W. Smith visited Belarus alongside two other U.S. officials to conduct a prisoner swap in a similar unannounced visit.

Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has been accused of staging fraudulent elections in Belarus. The leader declared a seventh consecutive presidential election victory in January.

Kellogg has given the impression that the meeting could help reinitiate largely unsuccessful peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, two sources told Reuters.

Lukashenko is seen as a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russia faces isolation in response to its full-scale war against Ukraine.

The White House has discussed ways to weaken Russia's influence on Minsk and bring Belarus closer to the United States, one of the sources said.

On Feb. 12, Smith drove to Belarus from Lithuania following a phone call with Lukashenko. The small U.S. delegation visited a border town where three political prisoners were transferred, including one U.S. citizen and two Belarusian citizens, the New York Times reported.

Lukashenko assured he was ready to decrease repression in Belarus, Smith said, adding that the U.S. wants Belarus to be less reliant on Russia.

Belarus has faced Western sanctions following a presidential election in 2020 that international observers condemned as fraudulent. The sham election garnered mass protests that rejected the results.

Minsk refused to invite a mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the country's Jan. 26 presidential election.

Belarus further isolated itself from the West as it supports Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine.

‘He said he wasn’t going anywhere’ — Survivors search for missing following Russia’s deadliest attack on Kyiv this year

Sitting a few meters from the rubble of what used to be a nondescript nine-story residential building in Kyiv, Lilia rises to her feet every time another pile of debris is cleared from the site targeted by Russia during a mass overnight attack on June 17. “We are waiting (as

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

The Council of the EU on June 12 approved fresh tariffs on fertilizers and remaining agricultural goods from Russia and Belarus, aiming to reduce Russian export revenues.

The measures target those goods that have not yet been subject to additional customs duties and will enter into force on July 1. The tariffs on fertilizers will increase gradually over the next three years.

The step comes as the EU readies additional sanctions against Russia as it continues to wage its all-out war against Ukraine.

"Polish Presidency motto is 'Security, Europe!' and these measures increase our economic security by reducing dependencies from Russia," said Michal Baranowski, the trade undersecretary at the Polish Economy Ministry.

"We are further reducing Russia’s export revenues and therefore its ability to finance its brutal war. This is united Europe at its best," he said in a statement.

The new tariffs will apply to goods that made up around 15% of all agricultural imports from Russia in 2023. Fertilizer tariffs will focus on certain nitrogen-based products, the Council said in a statement.

Russian fertilizers accounted for more than a quarter of all of the EU's imports in this sector in 2023, worth almost $1.5 billion.

Apart from stifling Russia's trade revenue, the step also aims to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian and Belarusian goods, protect European farmers, and diversify the supply.

The EU adopted higher tariffs on cereals, oilseeds, and some other products from Russia and Belarus in May 2024. Earlier this year, the European Commission proposed imposing similar measures on all remaining agricultural products from the two countries.

Putin’s suspected daughter found working in anti-war galleries in Paris

Nastya Rodionova, a Russian writer and artist who has been based in Paris since 2022, had only met gallery manager Luiza Rozova in passing at events before she learned who the 22-year-old’s parents were. Described by a number of people as a “very nice and well-mannered girl,” Rozova is

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Russia and Belarus have significantly reduced the scale of the planned Zapad-2025 joint military exercise and relocated its main activities away from NATO-adjacent areas, a decision likely driven by Russian military overstretch due to Moscow’s war in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 28 May.

Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin announced on social media that the upcoming Zapad-2025 exercise would be relocated from the western border of Belarus to central parts of the country. He claimed this move aimed to demonstrate “readiness for de-escalation, dialogue, and peace.”

However, ISW notes that such a decision would not have been made without Moscow’s approval, suggesting broader strategic motives.

“Belarussian authorities would not have been able to make this decision independently without Russia. Russia and Belarus are attempting to posture themselves as unthreatening, reasonable, and cooperative to the West,” ISW wrote.

Forces unavailable due to Ukraine deployment

ISW points out that previous Zapad exercises involved large formations, including elements of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army, 20th Combined Arms Army, 6th Combined Arms Army, and approximately 4,000 Airborne (VDV) personnel from the 7th, 76th, 98th, and 106th divisions. Many of these units are now engaged in combat operations in Ukraine.

“Belarusian officials previously claimed that at least 13,000 personnel would participate in the Zapad-2025 exercise, and Russia and Belarus likely had to downsize the joint exercise as most of its forces are fighting in Ukraine,” ISW says.

Russia’s shrinking military bandwidth

The Zapad-2023 exercise was canceled unexpectedly, which ISW says is “very likely due to Russia’s equipment and manpower requirements for” the ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The decision to downsize Zapad-2025 likely reflects similar constraints.

Ukraine will not take part in the World Judo Championships set for June in Budapest due to Belarus’s participation in the competition, the Ukrainian Judo Federation announced on May 29.

The decision came after the Executive Committee of the International Judo Federation (IJF) confirmed, following an appeal from Kyiv, that Belarusian athletes are allowed to take part in all international competitions under national symbols from June 1, 2025.

Since the outbreak of Moscow's full-scale war, Ukraine has repeatedly called for a ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes from participating in international competitions, including the 2024 Paris Olympics. Ultimately, these athletes were allowed to compete only as "individual neutral athletes" in individual disciplines without using any national symbols related to their countries.

While Belarus, an ally of Russia, has not directly participated in the war, it has allowed the Kremlin to use its territory as a staging ground for its operations against Ukraine.

According to the Ukrainian committee, the federation said in its response that "the IJF is committed to ensuring that sport serves as a platform for dialogue, unity, and understanding — building bridges, not walls."

The Ukrainian Judo Federation condemned the decision, saying that it contradicts "the fundamental principles of fairness, responsibility, and solidarity in the global sports movement."

"We firmly believe that allowing athletes from aggressor countries to compete under national symbols is not only a case of political blindness but also a blatant disregard for the victims of war and international law," the statement read.

As of March, 591 Ukrainian athletes and coaches have been killed by Russia in the war, with 22 held captive and 11 missing, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said.

How much does a Russian drone attack on Ukraine cost? The question is more complicated than it sounds

Beginning overnight on Saturday, May 24, Russia rained down nearly a thousand drones and missiles on villages and cities across Ukraine in three nights of large-scale aerial attacks, as civilians spent hours sheltering underground. Russia’s bombardment killed more than a dozen people and injured dozens more, in one of

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Moscow is planning to deploy multiple Oreshnik missile systems to Belarus by the end of 2025, State Secretary of Belarus' Security Council Alexander Volfovich said on May 28.

The "Oreshnik" is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that Russia touts as an experimental weapon capable of bypassing advanced air defense systems.

In December 2024, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko requested Moscow deploy 10 Russian Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus, pro-Kremlin journalist Alexander Yunashev reported on his Telegram channel.

"The locations for its deployment have already been determined," Volfovich said, without specifying how many missile systems would be deployed.

The Kyiv Independent cannot verify claims made by Belarusian officials.

On Nov. 21, 2024, Russia launched an Oreshnik missile against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The Oreshnik missile is designed to carry nuclear weapons, however, the missile was not armed with a nuclear warhead during the attack.

Russia launched the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine following Kyiv's first successful use of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles on a military target in Russia. Moscow later acknowledged additional ATACMS strikes on targets in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed Russia has begun mass production of the Oreshnik, a U.S. official told The Kyiv Independent that Moscow likely possesses "only a handful" of these experimental missiles.

Belarus has been a key ally to Moscow and has previously been reported as hosting Russian tactical nuclear arms on its territory, after the two countries signed an agreement in May 2023.

Lukashenko said in December 2023 that the transfer of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus was completed in early October.

Despite the claims, Ukrainian foreign intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko said in an interview with Ukrinform published on May 26 that Belarus possesses nuclear weapon delivery systems but no warheads.

Belarus has nuclear weapon delivery systems but no Russian warheads, Ukrainian intel chief says

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko said the transfer of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus was completed in October 2023.

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Lithuania has demanded more than 200 million euros ($227 million) in compensation for the migration crisis caused by Belarus, Lithuanian broadcaster LRT reported on May 26.

The demand comes after Lithuania instituted legal proceedings against Belarus in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on May 19, alleging that Minsk is "facilitating, supporting, and enabling the smuggling of migrants" into Lithuania.

"The initial estimates of damages, estimated to be more than 200 million euros, are allocated only to resolve the crisis within the internal affairs system. The calculations will be revised," the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice said in a comment to Baltic News Service.

Since 2021, Vilnius has accused Minsk of orchestrating a surge in irregular migrant crossings into Lithuania in an effort to destabilize Ukraine's EU and NATO ally.

In its lawsuit, Lithuania claims that the damages incurred between 2021 and 2023 resulted from building a physical barrier, enhancing border surveillance systems, and deploying an unprecedented number of personnel to the border due to Belarus' actions.

According to the Ministry of Justice, if the court recognizes a direct link between Belarus's actions and the resulting damages in Lithuania, it could set a precedent, making it easier to establish responsibility in future cases.

Poland may also join the lawsuit, independent Belarusian outlet Euroradio reported on May 23. Poland’s Foreign Ministry confirmed it was aware of Lithuania’s initiative and shares the view that Belarus has violated international law.

Belarus, which has not yet responded to the proceedings initiated by Lithuania, is one of Russia's staunchest allies, and part of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched from its territory.

Despite raising the issue with Belarusian authorities, Vilnius says that Minsk has refused to cooperate to limit illegal migration.

Lithuania previously said in April 2023 that it has refused entry to 20,000 migrants from Belarus, although that number has significantly grown since. Vilnius previously demanded Minsk pay 120 million euros ($134 million) from Belarus for facilitating the mass crossings.

Lithuania borders Russia's Kaliningrad exclave to the southwest and Belarus to the east and south. Tensions between NATO and Moscow have escalated since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow has previously been accused of similar tactics, aimed at destabilizing NATO allies in the Baltics.

In response to Helsinki's accession into NATO, Finland has accused neighboring Russia of weaponizing migration by encouraging migrants from countries like Syria and Somalia to cross the border.

As Lithuania continues to strengthen its defenses along its borders with Belarus and Russia, the country announced on May 5 that it will invest 1.1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) over the next decade to install anti-tank mines in order to "block and slow" a possible invasion.

Western intelligence agencies have warned of a potential large-scale war in Europe within the next five years, citing Russia's increasingly aggressive posture.

If Germany sends Taurus missiles to Ukraine, Russia has a major Crimean Bridge problem

A statement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on May 26 about long-range strikes inside Russia resurrected a long-held hope in Ukraine — that Berlin is finally about to send Kyiv its Taurus missiles. “There are no longer any restrictions on the range of weapons delivered to Ukraine — neither by the U.

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Belarus will reduce the parameters of the upcoming Zapad-2025 military drills and move maneuvers further inland from the western border to reduce tensions in the region, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin claimed on May 28.

Zapad drills are large-scale joint military exercises regularly held by Russian and Belarusian forces. Minsk confirmed earlier this year that the 2025 drills will take place in mid-September, involving 13,000 soldiers.

"We have made a decision to reduce the parameters of the Joint Strategic Exercise 'Zapad-2025' and move its main maneuvers deep into the territory of the Republic of Belarus from the western borders," Khrenin said, according to the Belarusian Defense Ministry's Telegram channel.

Khrenin made the announcement during a meeting of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) ministers in Bishkek.

The exercises have raised alarm in Kyiv and NATO, as they will take place amid Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Moscow's increasingly aggressive posture toward Western allies.

President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia plans to deploy 15 divisions, totaling 100,000 to 150,000 troops, primarily in Belarus, possibly in preparation for a major military escalation.

Responding to the Russian-Belarusian drills, Poland has announced it would hold simultaneous and proportional exercises involving NATO partners.

Khrenin claimed that Zapad drills are "not aimed against anyone," stressing that Minsk's decision "indicates a readiness for dialogue and a reduction in tensions in the region."

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has been a key ally to Russia during its full-scale war against Ukraine. While not deploying its soldiers for combat, Belarus has provided its territory as a launching ground for Russian ground forces and missiles in 2022.

Ukraine allegedly launches almost 300 drones at Russia; UAV facility near Moscow reportedly targeted

Dozens of Ukrainian drones were shot down by Russian air defenses as they approached Moscow, Mayor Sergey Sobyanin claimed on May 28.

The Kyiv IndependentLucy Pakhnyuk

Ukraine’s foreign intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko says that Belarus has nuclear weapon carriers but no actual nuclear weapons on its territory. The same applies to Oreshnik missile systems.

Ivashchenko said this in his first interview since Russia’s full-scale invasion to Ukrinform news agency.

The Ukrainian intelligence chief confirmed that delivery systems exist in Belarus. “Carriers are there. This is true. There are aircraft, there are Iskander tactical missile systems. But there are no actual nuclear weapons in Belarus. This is a fact,” Ivashchenko said.

Belarus is preparing storage facilities for nuclear weapons, the intelligence chief reports. Construction work continues at these sites.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko claims his country will receive Oreshnik systems by the end of the year. Ivashchenko questions this timeline.

“This looks like wishful thinking. Today there is nothing like that, and it is unlikely to appear,” the intelligence service head said.

Russia and Belarus signed agreements on tactical nuclear weapons deployment in May 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the following month that some Russian nuclear weapons were already in Belarus.

Lukashenko ordered the development of nuclear weapons use algorithms in late June 2023. These procedures would govern weapons stationed by Russia.

In January 2025, Lukashenko said Belarus would receive Oreshnik missile systems “any day now.” He claimed Belarus would initially get ten Oreshnik complexes from Russia. The number could increase if Russia decides to provide more systems.

Il n’a jamais été simple de parler du Bélarus en France sans tomber dans le cliché. La formulation « dernière dictature d’Europe » a encore été reprise par les médias aujourd’hui pour évoquer le scrutin présidentiel qui s’est tenu dimanche, et j’en veux un peu aux journalistes pour cette paresse intellectuelle.
« Dernière dictature d’Europe » était une formule confortable pour se rassurer sur le processus de démocratisation qui aurait été en voie de généralisation sur le continent européen; certes, à des vitesses variables, mais quand-même quasiment certain. Le Bélarus faisait alors office d’épouvantail et de dernier bastion d’un monde en cours de disparition. Cela empêchait de voir les dynamiques réelles sur place (et de s’interroger par exemple sur la manière dont la stabilité, les politiques sociales et le progrès économique pouvaient atrophier la sensibilité politique). Cela faisait aussi du bien à l’égo européen.
Nous n’en sommes plus là aujourd’hui, bien évidemment, et dans un contexte de montée d’attractivité des autoritarismes, le Belarus est plutôt un cas d’école qui devrait attirer notre attention. Dire que l’élection présidentielle qui vient de s’écouler était un simulacre, c’est à la fois vrai et stérile, parce que c’est une manière de dire « point, à la ligne, on passe à autre chose » qui neutralise toute volonté de compréhension.
Malheureusement, la guerre conduite par la Russie contre l’Ukraine m’a empêché d’être suffisamment vigilante sur le Bélarus pour livrer une analyse approfondie. Ce que je dis est à prendre avec des pincettes; ce sont des pistes à creuser.
Un régime politique autoritaire fonctionne grâce à un certain dosage de coercition et d’adhésion; il doit non seulement mettre en place une répression suffisamment forte pour bloquer les oppositions, mais aussi distribuer suffisamment de bénéfices pour susciter l’adhésion. Plus le ratio est en faveur des bénéfices, plus le pouvoir est stable; plus il penche du côté répressif, plus le régime est fragile. Pendant longtemps, le régime politique du Belarus s’est attaché à distribuer beaucoup de bénéfices à la population, notamment à travers des politiques sociales, des politiques de développement et une promesse de stabilité et de prévisibilité. Les Bélarusses vivaient – économiquement – plutôt mieux que beaucoup de leurs voisins, et en avaient conscience. Le prix politique à payer apparaissait donc comme acceptable.
Evidemment, le soutien de la Russie était et reste l’exosquelette du régime bélarusse, aussi bien d’un point de vue politique qu’économique.
Les protestations massives de 2020 étaient intervenues dans le contexte d’une certaine fragilisation du modèle, et notamment d’une perception du régime comme moins protecteur, mais aussi en décalage avec les demandes de la société. Les répressions violentes qui ont suivi et qui se sont maintenues tout au long des années suivantes ont fait basculer le ratio répression/bénéfices en faveur de la répression. Cette période violente va compter dans l’histoire politique bélarusse: on ne le perçoit pas encore, mais elle a donné naissance à une expérience différente, moins marginale de l’opposition politique, de la répression et de la prison. Elle a aussi permis de structurer une opposition à l’étranger et de lui donner des canaux de prise de parole. Derrière les apparences de « il ne se passe rien », le Belarus est en réalité bien plus prêt qu’en 2020 à entamer une transition politique, avec une nouvelle génération de citoyens jetés avec violence dans la politique.
Cependant, et paradoxalement, c’est la guerre en Ukraine qui a redonné de la stabilité au régime bélarusse. En effet, dans un contexte où la Russie essaie de toutes ses forces de faire du Bélarus un cobelligérant, il y a des choses que Loukachenko a réussi à protéger. Certes, des unités armées russes et des complexes d’armement sont désormais basés au Belarus, qui sert de base aux attaques contre l’Ukraine. Cependant, aucune unité armée bélarusse ne combat aux côtés de la Russie contre l’Ukraine. Pensez au paradoxe: des soldats nord-coréens, mais pas de soldats bélarusses, alors que le pays se déclare être le plus proche allié de la Russie. Le territoire du Bélarus reste un territoire en paix. Cela, les citoyens savent qu’ils le doivent en partie à Loukachenko… mais aussi en partie aux Ukrainiens qui ne désespèrent pas de retourner les Bélarusses contre Moscou, et qui ne les perçoivent pas de la même manière que les Russes.
La politique menée par Loukachenko vis-à-vis de la Russie a été caractérisée par un de mes anciens collègues bélarusses par la formule suivante: « on dit oui à tout, puis on bureaucratise au maximum le processus pour finalement ne rien faire ». C’est aussi une stratégie que les Bélarusses appliquent au quotidien vis-à-vis de leur Etat. Il y a une certaine résilience stratégique de la société bélarusse qu’on ferait bien de souligner. Ne nous laissons pas tromper par cette apparence de calme plat: le Bélarus n’est pas la Russie et suivra une dynamique qui lui sera propre.