Russia's forces have gained little ground in Ukraine this year even as Moscow inflates its battlefield tallies and stiffens its demands, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukrainian defenses and a counteroffensive have held Russian advances to a fraction of the official claims. That gap, the analysts said, appears to shape the Kremlin's thinking about war and peace.

The gap between the map and the front

On 22 July, the Russian Defense Ministry amplified a claim that its forces seized 2,226 km² in the first half of 2026. The figure came from a Russian propaganda Telegram channel. ISW assessed a far smaller number. By its count, Russian troops hold a net 81 km² gained across 2026 so far. Units seized or infiltrated about 627 km², the analysts found, but infiltration is not control. Soldiers who slip into a field or treeline do not hold it. Stripping those gains out leaves the smaller total. 

Moscow inflates the picture Putin sees

The exaggeration is not only public messaging. Russian officials keep constructing a false reality that appears to shape President Vladimir Putin and his choices. Russian channels have done this before over occupied Crimea's supply lines. Occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky recently assured Putin that the main road to Crimea was secure. Russia's own war bloggers refuted him within hours. ISW noted that inflated reports encourage Putin to keep refusing compromise.

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Moscow’s offensive has lost ground since it started — yet Russia’s top brass declared Luhansk Oblast fully seized for the fourth time

Moscow hardens its Ukraine capitulation demands

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed on 22 July that Russia's 2024 terms still stand. Those terms demand that Ukraine withdraw from its Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. They also require Ukraine to drop its bid to join NATO. Bloomberg reported that Russia now refuses to return any occupied Ukrainian land. Sources close to the Kremlin said Russia's Defense Ministry assured Putin it can seize all of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026. ISW called that extremely unlikely and would not endorse it on any timeline.

There is no confirmed information that Russian troops have entered Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, spokesperson Victor Tregubov of the Khortytsia group of forces told Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne on June 13, refuting earlier claims published by the New York Times (NYT).

The NYT cited Ukrainian military sources claiming that Russian troops crossed the administrative boundary into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for the first time since the war began.

The reporting also referenced a map by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicating that Russian forces advancing in the region had allegedly secured a foothold.

Tregubov said the situation remains unchanged as of June 13. He indicated that no information suggests Russian forces have crossed the administrative border, but he noted that updated intelligence may be available later in the day.

Andrii Zadubiny, press officer of the Khortytsia forces, also rejected the claims.

"No enemy incursion into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been recorded. We refute this information," he told Suspilne. He suggested that ISW might be relying on Russian sources.

On June 8, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a claim that has not been substantiated by Ukrainian authorities.

The Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState also reported no evidence of Russian forces entering the oblast. A map depicting Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine indicates that the Russian troops are only a couple of kilometers from the border.

To date, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — a major industrial region in central Ukraine — has not seen confirmed Russian ground incursions, though it has remained under constant threat from missile and drone attacks.

In late April, Ukrainian authorities began mandatory evacuations of families with children from four front-line villages — Kolona Mezhova, Novopidhorodne, Raipole, and Sukhareva Balka — located just kilometers from Russian positions.

The latest developments come amid growing pressure on Ukrainian defenses across multiple fronts and continued failure of U.S.-mediated negotiations to produce a ceasefire agreement.

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The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek