Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods says that the oil giant has no plans to return to Russia. However, the company is negotiating with Russian officials over the recovery of $4.6 billion in expropriated assets, the Financial Times reports. 

Russian officials continue to claim that Exxon “may be allowed” to return to the country amid the Alaska peace summit, at which “normalization and deepening of economic ties” between Russia and the US were discussed.

Exxon Mobil trapped in “Sakhalin-1”

Exxon Mobil exited the Sakhalin-1 oil project in March 2022, following Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine.

Despite wanting to reclaim its assets, Russian authorities denied the request. In October 2022, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering the forced seizure of Exxon’s stake, transferring it to the Russian company Rosneft through its subsidiary.

Exxon was forced to write off assets worth over $4.6 billion, having effectively lost control of its stake in the project and being unable to operate or extract value from it.

Ahead of the meeting with Trump, Putin signed a decree that potentially allows foreign investors, including Exxon Mobil, to reclaim their shares in the project.

Negotiations focus only on losses

However, according to CEO Darren Woods, Exxon has no intention of returning to Russia.

“We don’t have any plans to re-enter Russia. This was really around settlement discussions around the arbitration associated with the expropriation of our assets in 2022,” Exxon’s top executive said.

He added that Exxon executives are negotiating with Russian officials about recovering the $4.6 billion in expropriated assets, but not about investing in the country.

Russian officials continue to say that Exxon “may be allowed” to return, amid the Alaska peace summit, which discussed the normalization and deepening of economic ties between the US and Russia.

On Wednesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that negotiations between investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev and US officials “continue regarding cooperation in energy deals, including Sakhalin-1.”

The longer Russia prolongs its war in Ukraine, the more the global balance of power shifts. Recently, Moscow reportedly supplied North Korea with nuclear submarine modules, including a reactor, a move that could mark a breakthrough for Pyongyang in building its own strategic submarines, Korea JoongAng Daily reports, citing South Korean government sources.

According to several officials, during the first half of 2025, Russia may have delivered two or three modules to North Korea, including a reactor, turbine, and cooling system, which are the key components of a nuclear submarine’s power plant. These were not newly produced units but parts removed from decommissioned Russian submarines.

“Since last year, North Korea has been persistently requesting nuclear submarine technology and advanced fighter jets from Russia.

Russia was initially reluctant but appears to have agreed to provide them this year,” one government source said on condition of anonymity.

A shadow beneath the Pacific

For Pyongyang, nuclear-powered submarines are a strategic priority, as they could enable the capability to launch nuclear strikes against the US. In March, the state-run Rodong Sinmun published photos of Kim Jong Un inspecting a nuclear submarine under construction.

Until recently, experts were convinced that North Korea could not independently develop a reactor for submarines. If the transfer of modules is confirmed, the country would gain access for the first time to a technology that had been out of reach.

Reports also suggest Pyongyang demanded this assistance from Moscow in exchange for sending troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A red line crossed

Confirmation of the transfer would mean Russia has crossed a “red line,” in blatant violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Such a step would likely provoke new sanctions targeting both North Korea and Russia.

South Korea’s intelligence service has already passed the information to the US and its allies. 

Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne reports that intelligence data show about 20,000 Cubans are fighting on Russia’s side in the war against Ukraine. The report was discussed during a US Congress security briefing, which highlighted Cuba’s role in aiding Russia both with fighters and sanction evasion.

US Congress briefing on Cuban involvement

On 18 September, US Representative Mario Díaz-Balart, a Republican from Florida, hosted a virtual national security briefing with Ukrainian officials and US lawmakers. The focus was the “alarming presence of thousands of Cuban regime troops fighting alongside Russia in the war against Ukraine” and the threat this poses to US and regional security.

Florida representatives María Elvira Salazar and Carlos Giménez also participated, alongside Cuban opposition figures and Ukrainian officials including presidential sanctions adviser Vladyslav Vlasiuk, intelligence representative Andrii Yusov, and members of parliament Oleksandr Merezhko and Marian Zablotskyi.

20,000 Cubans recruited for Russia’s war

According to Suspilne, Ukrainian intelligence representative said at the meeting that around 20,000 Cubans have been recruited by Russia. About 1,000 signed formal contracts with Russia in 2023–2025. The average age of these mercenaries is 35.

Ukrainian officials presented a list of 39 confirmed Cuban fatalities but stressed that the figure represents only part of the actual losses. Each Cuban fighter reportedly receives about $2,000 a month. Yusov noted that while the payment is small, it is “a powerful argument” for Cuba’s impoverished population.

Foreign support for Russia’s war machine

Briefing participants also stressed how Russia continues to bypass sanctions with support from Cuba, China, Iran, and North Korea. According to intelligence data, critical microchips and other components flow into Russia’s defense industry through these countries. Officials stated that 60% of Russia’s artillery shells come from North Korea, while Iranian drones are used in major strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. Ukrainian intelligence emphasized that Cuban fighters form the second-largest foreign mercenary group in Russia’s ranks.

Training in occupied Crimea

Suspilne Krym earlier reported that Cuban mercenaries, alongside recruits from African states and other Russian allies, undergo training in Russian-occupied Crimea before being deployed to fight against Ukraine.

There was a time, not too long ago, when the T-64BM Bulat was Ukraine’s most modern tank. But times have changed. And now the survivors of the 100 pre-war Bulats have trickled down to some of Ukraine’s least active brigades.

The fate of the surviving Bulats speaks to the Ukrainian tank corps’ huge leap in capability in just the 43 months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine. But it also speaks to a shortage of working tanks in the Ukrainian inventory as Ukraine’s roughly 130 ground combat brigades reorganize into a new corps structure, with multiple brigades—each with thousands of troops and potentially dozens of tanks—under a single command.

A photo that circulated online recently depicts a war-weary Bulat in training with the 118th Territorial Defense Brigade. The brigade is holding the line outside Mala Tokmachka in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a comparatively quiet sector despite a few recent Russian assaults.

The 49-ton, three-person T-64BM was, until recently, the ultimate T-64—and the best tank in the Ukrainian inventory. The Ukrainian army went to war in 2022 with around 100 Bulats, many if not most of them in service with the elite 1st Tank Brigade.

Two years later, the 1st Tank Brigade had switched to the latest T-64BV, which is several tons lighter than the T-64BM and has newer and much better optics. The 70 or remaining Bulats—a couple dozen have been lost in action—apparently cascaded to the 109th and 118th Territorial Brigades.

The switch makes sense. When the Malyshev tank factory in Kharkiv designed the Bulat back in the 1990s, it added features such as improved armor and fire controls, but didn’t add enough engine horsepower to compensate for the resulting extra weight. “It proved too heavy,” one expert wrote about the Bulat. “There were also problems with air intake and filters.”

There’s some speculation that the Bulats are also badly in need of an overhaul. In any event, by 2025, the Bulat would no longer be Ukraine’s best tank. Ukraine’s super-upgraded T-64BVs have been joined by ex-German Leopard 2s and ex-American M-1s, among other tanks.

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Lighter brigades

Territorial brigades tend to be less well-equipped than army, air assault, marine, and assault brigades and tend to fight defensively rather than lead offensive operations.

So it should come as no surprise that, for example, the assault branch’s 425th Assault Regiment operates American-made M-1s donated by Australia, but the territorials operate overweight, underpowered Bulats and ex-Croatian M-84s based on downgraded Soviet-made T-72Ms.

The Bulats are probably adequate for brigades that aren’t expected to use their tanks especially aggressively. Ideally, the territorials would operate the same tanks as the other ground combat branches. At present, that’s not really an option.

Ukraine had around 1,000 tanks when Russia widened the war in February 2022. In 43 months of hard fighting, the Ukrainians have lost around 1,000 tanks but have gotten another 1,000 tanks from their foreign allies. Wear and tear has removed hundreds of otherwise intact tanks from the active rolls, however.

Bottom line: Ukraine is low on tanks.

The ground forces’ reorganization into an 18-corps structure hasn’t solved the problem. As part of the reorganization, all five army tank brigades plus 13 other brigades—including several territorial brigades—are transforming into heavy mechanized brigades, one for each corps.

Each heavy mech brigade should have two tank battalions together operating around 60 tanks. That’s fewer tanks than were in the old tank brigades, but more tanks than were in old territorial or mechanized brigades.

The corps reorg hasn’t decreased overall demand for tanks, which Ukrainian formations count on to help compensate for a force-wide shortage of trained infantry.

The Bulats might be too heavy and too tired to lead Ukraine’s armored counterattacks. But they’re better than nothing for a couple of territorial brigades.

Explore further

Russian infiltrators near Pokrovsk are about to get the tank treatment

Today there are interesting updates from the Pokrovsk direction. 

Here Ukrainian forces have launched a sweeping strike campaign targeting Russian bases, training camps and troop concentrations across the whole Donbas front to bleed out Russia’s capacity for a renewed offensive. 

Coupled with the ground operations, these combined efforts have already inflicted 60,000 losses on the 110,000 strong initial Russian grouping since the start of the Pokrovsk offensive.

Major strikes on command infrastructure

A repeated Ukrainian strike came in the aftermath of one of the most significant blows against the Topaz plant in Donetsk, which housed a Russian command post. 

Eyewitnesses reported again thick smoke, multiple explosions, and noticeable damage to repair and logistics facilities. 

Meanwhile, other strikes in Donetsk have repeatedly hit troop concentrations, energy and command infrastructure, preventing the Russians from regrouping smoothly or re-establishing staging areas, as well as the Russian army. The strike was confirmed by multiple released videos from the region.

Precision strikes near the frontline

Closer to the frontline near Myrnohrad, Russian forces concentrations were also targeted by the Ukrainians. 

In one geolocated video, a MiG-29 dropped a GBU-62 JDAM bomb on a cluster of Russian assault troops along with the nearby ammunition storage, obliterating both the fighters and their supplies simultaneously. 

In another strike, a similar precision weapon demolished a building sheltering an enemy assault group, cutting off the Russian operation before it really started. 

Such strikes have undercut the Russian ability to mass troops or prepare joint assaults threatening Pokrovsk.

Systematic destruction of air defense systems

Essential strikes against Russian air defenses that are conducted in parallel with every radar or air defense system destroyed, meaning fewer obstacles for Ukrainian drones, missile launches and fighter jets to reach high-value targets. 

For example, a Zupark radar near Donetsk was destroyed after a shark-reconnaissance drone, followed by a HIMARS artillery strike. Two Pantsir-S1 systems were eliminated within 24 hours, one via a Ram-2X drone strike, the other in Snizhne by another still-unidentified Ukrainian drone, removing critical mobile air defense cover. 

Near Donetsk, an expensive Russian Buk-M2 system, costing more than 10 million US dollars, was geolocated and knocked out by HIMARS, as visible on a video published by a Ukrainian blog. 

Another Buk-M1 was first tracked to a warehouse by a drone and targeted there unsuccessfully. But when Russian crews attempted to move it, Ukrainian operators readjusted their fire and destroyed it in the follow-up strike.

Devastating impact on Russian forces

These Ukrainian strikes have contributed to exceptional Russian losses in the Pokrovsk direction in the past ten months, while the Russian command repeatedly tried outflanking maneuvers, infiltrations and direct assaults aiming to capture Pokrovsk and sever its supply routes. 

Ukrainian analysts estimate that Russia has already lost around 60,000 soldiers, killed and wounded during the Pokrovsk offensive alone. The daily toll on Russian manpower and equipment has surged, particularly since the Russian breakthrough near Dobropillia failed and Ukrainian forces began isolating, cutting off and eliminating trapped enemy units. 

In addition, Ukrainian air raids against troop concentrations and training camps in the rear have taken out Russian units before they ever reached the front line, reducing pressure on defenders and allowing Ukraine to repel assaults more efficiently, while the combined long-lasting strike campaign has added thousands of Russian losses to the statistic.

Strategic multi-layer campaign

Ukraine is executing a well-synchronized multi-layer campaign to first suppress Russian air defense, then strike command posts and logistical nodes, and finally funnel damage onto Russian forces in the rear or awaiting deployment. 

Because of these efforts, Russian attempts to mount large-scale assaults have been repeatedly delayed or cancelled, as commanders suffer from the loss of staging bases, supply depots, repair facilities and associated personnel. 

The heavy targeting of their command structure has left whole units and even divisions with confusing orders, disrupted communications and fewer operational reserves.

Long-term strategic implications

Overall, Ukraine’s recent strikes on bases, training camps and air defense systems represent more than tactical successes. 

Strategically decisive in blunting and, in many cases, halting, Russian plans to renew the offensive toward Pokrovsk. By striking rear areas and infrastructure and by destroying air defenses that shield those targets, Ukraine not only protects its front line but sets conditions, where Russian forces must operate exposed and fragmented. 

This gives Ukraine breathing room on multiple flanks, reduces incoming pressure, reduces attack speed, and forces the enemy to defend inside and out of the flank. 

To and raises the cost of any renewed Russian attack to levels that may not be sustainable, no matter how many additional units the Russian command transfers to this sector.

The fighting around the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast is so fluid and chaotic that the best outside observers—independent analysts and mappers—struggle to make sense of it.

We know a big battle is coming. Potentially “the largest battle of the entire war,” according to American analyst Andrew Perpetua. But the smaller clashes leading up to that likely battle are an ominous sign. When the final battle for Pokrovsk eventually begins, it could defy conventional understanding.

Two leading mappers—Deep State and Unit Observer—have tried to pinpoint the locations of the main Russian and Ukrainian units, as well as the geographic zones of control across a 12-km front stretching from Rodynske to Dobropillia just northeast of Pokrovsk.

Dobropillya Direction
Due to Ukrainian reinforcements arriving from Sumy and counterattacks by assault units, Russia redeployed elements of the 8th Army to prevent the semi-encirclement of 51st Army units, which continue their attacks in the Rodynske–Dobropillya direction. pic.twitter.com/J3vkwOETKy

— Unit Observer (@WarUnitObserver) September 15, 2025

Their maps don’t match. “The situation there is a total mess,” analyst Moklasen observed.

This much we know. In late July or early August, the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade slipped right past Ukrainian trenches east of Rodynske and marched on Dobropillia, which sits astride one of the two main supply lines into Pokrovsk.

The Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps raced toward the breach. In the weeks that followed, the corps may have mostly destroyed the 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade and carved up the Russian salient. Ukrainian forces “possess the initiative here,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported.

But how many Russians remain in the salient, and where, is unclear.

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This uncertainty is becoming the new normal in Ukraine as both sides struggle to recruit enough good infantry and tiny explosive drones increasingly dominate the landscape.

“With manpower shortages and infiltration tactics, the front line in some areas has become far less defined and certain,” explained Tatarigami, the founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight analysis group.

“It has reached the point where even soldiers on both sides are uncertain about the front line—at least beyond their own unit’s tactical area,” Tatarigami added. “As a result, sources once considered reliable for mappers are no longer as dependable.”

The gray zone

The chaos afflicts the troops on the ground. In May 2024, a squad from the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade captured a Russian radio during a bitter skirmish over a Russian-held gully somewhere north of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine. “We will now try to fuck them over,” the Ukrainian infantry leader said in the official video depicting the fight. “Who is a Russian-speaker?”

A Russian-speaking Ukrainian soldier hopped on the captured radio. “We’re 1st Company,” he transmitted—part of the same battalion as the Russians in the gully. The Russians shifted their fire to avoid hitting their “allies.”

“Let’s go,” the 3rd Assault Brigade infantry leader ordered. “Yell in Russian!”

By the time the Russians realized the soldiers approaching them weren’t actually allies, it was too late. They were all but surrounded.

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A fearless Ukrainian trooper posed as Russian, got close—and then opened fire

That kind of battlefield confusion is becoming more common—and deadlier. Consider the trooper from the Ukrainian 425th Assault Regiment who recently posed as Russian, fell in with two Russian soldiers east of Pokrovsk—and then gunned them down from a few feet away.

For the 150,000 Russians and 50,000 or more Ukrainian troops currently massing around Pokrovsk, these cases of mistaken identity, and the bewildering action northeast of the city, may be previews of much wider chaos as entire field armies and corps clash in the coming weeks.

The battle is probably unavoidable at this point. “Russia has been moving forces into position in Pokrovsk for weeks/months,” Perpetua explained. “They are preparing for what could end up being the largest battle of the entire war.”

“You should not misread what is going on,” Perpetua stressed. But accurately reading the battle, once it commences, could be difficult.

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Ireland has delivered 34 military vehicles and three demining robots for Ukraine as part of its non-lethal military aid. The announcement was made on 18 September by the Irish Defense Minister.

Ireland delivers 34-vehicle non-lethal military aid convoy to Ukraine

According to the Irish Government’s press release, two convoys organized by the Irish Defense Forces have arrived in Poland carrying 34 military vehicles destined for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The shipments were carried out under Operation Carousel 3, led by the Defense Forces Transport Corps.

The equipment was delivered to the International Donor Coordination Cell in Rzeszów and will be officially handed over in coordination with the Ukrainian military.

The Tánaiste (Ireland’s second-ranking government official) and Minister for Defense Simon Harris said,

“This important donation is a further indication of Ireland’s steadfast support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s brutal invasion.”

He stressed the need to continue backing Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, calling the delivery a “practical example” of non-lethal aid provided since the 2022 full-scale invasion. 

What’s inside the aid shipment

The convoy included two Ford Transit vans, three Mercedes ambulances, five Scania 8×8 DROPS trucks, eight 15-seater Ford Transit minibuses, and sixteen double cab Ford Rangers. In addition, three Reacher Robots were delivered to support demining operations as part of a multinational coalition.

The donation supports the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of 57 countries and the European Union that delivers military equipment and assistance to Ukraine. Ireland contributes to two non-lethal sub-coalitions under this group: a demining capability coalition co-led by Lithuania and Iceland, and an IT coalition co-led by Estonia and Luxembourg.

Russia is protecting occupied Crimea better than its oil refineries. Moscow is constantly boosting air defense systems in the peninsula with the most advanced systems in response to Ukraine’s strikes, says Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk, Espreso reports. 

Meanwhile, Russian oil remains a key source of revenue that funds its military aggression against Ukraine. In 2025, profits from the oil and gas sector account for about 77.7% of Russia’s federal budget. 

Russia deploys S-500 “Prometey”, but fails against Ukrainian attacks

“All the air defense systems they have were already deployed there. They’ve concentrated the S-500 ‘Prometey’ in Crimea for a long time,” Pletenchuk says.

The S-500 is Russia’s newest generation air defense system, designed to intercept ballistic and cruise missiles, strategic aircraft, and hypersonic missiles. It can detect targets up to 800 km away and strike them at a range of 600 km, as per Defence Blog. 

Equipped with advanced electronic warfare capabilities, it can operate independently or integrate with S-400 systems, each valued at approximately $600 million.

Despite these defenses, Ukrainian forces destroyed an S-500 complex in Donbas this summer with ATACMS missiles, according to the Tivaz artillery division.

Crimea remains strategic for Russia

Pletenchuk notes that Crimea continues to be a critical location for Russia.

“The Russians will cling to the peninsula until the very end. They are strengthening Crimea’s air defenses far more than their own oil refineries,” he said.

Despite the saturation of air defenses, Ukraine continues to strike Russian military assets in Crimea.

“Our Armed Forces are still able to target key enemy resources. For Russia, the oil industry is particularly important because it funds their operations and contributes to their budget,” Pletenchuk adds.

Key targets of the last few months

In August, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence reported that it destroyed several high-value Russian targets in Crimea, including:

• UTIOS-T radar system
• RT-70 radio telescope, a unique Soviet-era facility for monitoring satellite constellations
• GLONASS satellite navigation system dome
• Coastal radar station MR-10M1 ‘Mys’ M1
• 96L6-AP radar of the S-400 missile system

The most interesting of them is the radio telescope. It was built during Soviet times to monitor satellite constellations. Pletenchuk emphasized that “it was genuinely one-of-a-kind.”

A fragment of a Russian military drone Gerbera washed up on a beach in Latvia’s Ventspils district on 18 September, drawing a response from the country’s armed forces and prompting renewed attention to Russia’s unmanned aircraft activity near NATO borders.

Latvian beachgoers find tail of washed-up Russian drone

The National Armed Forces of Latvia (NBS) reported that a tail section of a drone was discovered on a beach in Vārve parish, Ventspils district. Authorities said it was washed in from the Baltic Sea.

Sargs says Latvia’s State Police said initial information showed no threat had been identified at the site. Nonetheless, NBS dispatched an unexploded ordnance disposal team to analyze the wreckage and determine next steps.

“Such cases are not uncommon along the Latvian coast – remnants of munitions or fragments of other military objects are regularly found washed ashore,” Sargs noted.

Identified as Gerbera drone used by Russian forces

Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi noted that the wreckage was preliminarily identified as part of a Russian Gerbera drone. This model is actively used by Russia in its war against Ukraine and in provocations targeting NATO countries.

Recent Gerbera/Shahed incidents

In July, the first confirmed flights of Gerbera drones into the airspace of Baltic countries were recorded. These incidents reportedly caused serious concern among Lithuanian military and government officials.

The same type of drone was previously discovered in Lithuania in early August, having entered from Belarusian territory. 

On 10 September, Russia launched a mass incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace, further confirming the growing threat along NATO’s eastern flank.

On 13 September, a Russian drone violated Romania’s airspace.

Poland has recorded another night of drone provocations from Russia and Belarus. The country’s Border Guard Service has reported heightened activity of the enemy targets attempting to violate its airspace, PAP reports. 

Polish Minister of Interior Affairs Mariusz Kamiński describes the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border as “very tense.”

“Tonight, the Border Guard observed increased activity of Belarusian and Russian drones trying to cross Polish airspace,” the minister emphasizes.

Border openings only when safe

When asked about reopening border crossings with Belarus, Kamiński reminded that the closure was imposed due to the Russian-Belarusian military exercises “Zapad-2025”.

During the drills, both countries tested an attack on Poland and a nuclear attack. 

“The border will open only when we have full confidence that there are no threats or provocations to Poland. If our intelligence confirms that it is safe, we will reopen the border,” he added.

On 16 September, Belarus also announced that its forces practiced deploying Russia’s Oreshnik missile system, marking the first known training with the weapon system outside Russia.

Impact on freight transport

The suspension affects road and rail transport in both directions, hitting the main route that carries 90% of rail freight between China and the EU. In 2024, shipments via this route increased by 10.6%, and the value of goods rose by 85%, reaching €25.07 billion, as per Politico.

PKP Cargo warned that short delays are manageable, but prolonged border closure would force a rerouting of trade to southern corridors.

A 45% jump from last year defies wartime expectations across Ukraine’s economic heartland and western regions. Kyiv Oblast dominated with 15,559 apartment permits despite regular missile strikes.

At the same time, western strongholds Lviv (6,956) and Ivano-Frankivsk (3,842) attracted developers betting on safer locations, according to State Statistics Service data released on 18 September.

Western regions fuel wartime construction wave

This construction revival comes despite the industry operating at roughly half of pre-war capacity. Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine approved construction for 12.7 million square meters of housing in 2021. The war crashed that figure to 6.67 million in 2022, then 4.2 million in 2023.

Kyiv Oblast’s 15,559 apartments represent a 130% increase from 2024, while Lviv Oblast’s 6,956 units reflect the region’s role as Ukraine’s migration hub. Meanwhile, frontline regions tell a different story: Donetsk managed just 16 apartment permits.

“Western Ukraine has now become a big construction site,” noted an analyst tracking western regions’ industrial real estate boom.

Business confidence drives long-term bets

The apartment surge reflects deeper economic confidence despite ongoing strikes on Ukrainian cities. Construction companies have maintained optimism for four consecutive months, with their business confidence index hitting 54.0 in August—the only major economic sector firmly in positive territory.

Starting apartment construction requires long-term planning, secure financing, and confidence in demand, suggesting Ukraine’s business community sees stability ahead despite daily missile attacks.

The housing market has adapted to wartime realities, with mortgage lending surging by 62% in 2024. This growth is concentrated in government programs supporting key societal groups.

International investors see opportunity

The 45% surge in construction permits coincides with foreign portfolio investors returning to Ukrainian real estate for the first time since the invasion began. Developers report institutional investors from countries spanning the UAE to Canada are now purchasing residential units in bulk, with some projects seeing foreign sales exceed domestic purchases.

“In our projects, the number of deals with foreigners sometimes exceeds the number of deals with Ukrainians,” said Irina Mikhaleva from Alliance Novobud, speaking to Interfax-Ukraine.

This suggests the construction recovery isn’t just domestic resilience—it’s attracting global capital, betting on Ukraine’s economic future.

The return of portfolio investors represents a significant shift from 2022-2024, when the market focused mainly on end buyers.

International institutional money moving into Ukrainian real estate signals early positioning for the country’s eventual reconstruction phase, potentially indicating broader confidence in Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory.

Recovery from a low baseline shows adaptation

While the 45% growth sounds dramatic, it starts from a collapsed baseline. The 2.97 million square meters of new construction permits in early 2025 remain far below the 12.7 million approved in pre-war 2021. Ukraine’s construction sector still operates at roughly half its peacetime capacity.

Yet the geographic concentration reveals strategic adaptation. Safer western regions now absorb construction investment that once flowed to industrial eastern cities.

The World Bank estimates Ukraine needs $524 billion for reconstruction over the next decade, with housing suffering the most damage.

The current construction boom suggests Ukraine isn’t waiting for war’s end to begin rebuilding—it’s adapting and growing within wartime constraints while attracting international capital that sees opportunity in the country’s resilience.

Poland is preparing a record defense budget amid Russian drone attacks. On 18 September, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that in 2026, the country’s defense spending will reach a record $55 billion, which is 4.8% of GDP, ArmyInform reports. 

He emphasized that this is an all-time high for free Poland, though even this increase does not fully meet the country’s security needs. 

“Between 2022 and 2026, the budget has tripled. Over four years, we have tripled spending on Polish state security, and we will continue to increase it because the needs are even greater,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

Poland urges NATO to accelerate defense spending

The Polish defense minister stressed that NATO allies must quickly reach 5% of GDP in defense spending.

“Within the next three to four years—by 2030—NATO countries should spend about 5%. We are talking 3.5% on ‘hard’ weapons and 1.5% on infrastructure,” he explained.

Poland’s security tied to Ukraine

Kosiniak-Kamysz made these statements during his visit to Kyiv on 18 September, where he met his counterpart, Denys Shmyhal.

“Poland’s security line runs along the front between Ukraine and Russia. I fully understand this, and for many who try to forget, it needs to be reminded,” the Polish defense minister added.

Joint UAV group to coordinate defense

Meanwhile, Poland and Ukraine are creating a joint operational group for unmanned aerial systems (UAVs), including representatives from both countries’ armed forces. The group will serve as a platform for coordinating and developing joint initiatives in UAV technology.

Ukraine has received the first shipment of military equipment under a new agreement between the United States and NATO, a NATO representative told Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne on Thursday.

The Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program is a new NATO-US mechanism that allows military aid to Ukraine to be financed collectively by allies, while weapons and equipment are drawn directly from American stockpiles. 

The system is designed to speed up deliveries and share costs among NATO members, ensuring a steadier flow of support to Kyiv that does not rely on US political will.

The NATO official said additional aid packages are already on the way, with four packages financed so far through PURL.

The news comes a day after the Trump administration confirmed that Ukraine would soon receive its first assistance from NATO allies through US stockpiles under the PURL mechanism.

The agreement restores the flow of weapons from the United States to Kyiv after months of uncertainty.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that the first PURL aid packages will include missiles for Patriot air defense and HIMARS systems. 

The PURL agreement

The PURL initiative was announced by former US President Donald Trump on 14 July, 2025, pledging billions of dollars in weapons for Ukraine, to be purchased and distributed by European NATO allies. Trump specified plans to prepare up to 17 Patriot air defense systems for shipment.

By the end of August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that seven countries had committed to the program, contributing a total of $2 billion. Defense experts say Ukraine’s priorities remain focused on air defenses, interceptors, missile systems, rockets, and artillery.

The Council of Europe is preparing the International Claims Commission for Ukraine. The draft Convention has been published. The new agency will serve as the second stage of the international mechanism to compensate for damages caused by Russian aggression, following the international Damage Registry. 

The Commission will review claims and assign compensation to war victims, with Russia expected to pay reparations at the third stage. The document was agreed upon in The Hague after eight rounds of negotiations over 18 months.

International Commission and damage registry

The Convention covers the period from 24 February 2022, but Ukraine may propose extending it to 2014–2021, Babel reports. In 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea, forcibly changing the borders of another country and violating the international order established since World War II. 

Key dates for the convention

• 22 October 2025 — Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe to review and approve the text.
• 16 December 2025 — Signing ceremony in The Hague.
• The Convention may enter into force as early as November 2026.

Start of commission work and compensation payments

On 1 January 2028, the transition from the Damage Registry to the Commission will begin, allowing Ukraine to continue seeking reparations from Russia and protecting the rights of its citizens at the international level.

Earlier, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said providing security guarantees for Ukraine remains unclear, as no state “is willing to wage a war against the Kremlin.” 

Sikorski recalled that Ukraine already had guarantees under the Budapest Memorandum, but they failed. The new arrangements, in his view, are also incapable of deterring Moscow. 

“I don’t see anyone willing to fight with Russia”: Sikorski explains why security guarantees for Ukraine may fail like Budapest Memorandum

Ukrainian forces are conducting a counteroffensive operation in the Pokrovsk and Dobropillia areas of Donetsk Oblast, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on 18 September. 

The reported operation represents a significant strategic shift after Russia made major territorial gains in summer 2025 around Pokrovsk and surrounding areas, including a breakthrough near Dobropillia in August that Ukrainian forces subsequently contained and reversed. 

“Since the start of the [counteroffensive] operation, our warriors have already liberated 160 square kilometers, and over 170 square kilometers have been cleared of the occupiers,” Zelenskyy said on Telegram.

He reported that seven settlements in the area have been liberated, and nine more “cleared of Russian presence.”

“Russian losses just since the start of this counteroffensive – in the Pokrovsk area alone, in these past weeks – are already more than 2,500, of which over 1,300 Russians have been killed,” Zelenskyy added.

He also said Ukraine has taken 100 Russian prisoners in the operation.

Pokrovsk and Dobropillia counteroffensive

The counteroffensive comes after months of intense fighting around Pokrovsk, where Russia concentrated nearly 100,000 soldiers in what analysts called a force capable of attacking a European country. 

Ukrainian forces successfully contained a Russian breakthrough near Dobropillia in August, where Moscow’s troops had advanced 15 kilometers before elite Ukrainian units, including the redeployed Azov Brigade, reversed their gains.

Pokrovsk represents the key to unlocking Russia’s broader campaign to capture all of Donetsk Oblast, serving as a critical supply hub for Ukrainian forces across the eastern front. 

The city’s potential fall would severely compromise Ukraine’s defensive positions throughout the region and open pathways for deeper Russian advances toward Kostiantynivka and the broader Donbas fortress belt. 

Recent intelligence indicates Russia is preparing fresh assaults with redeployed naval infantry brigades and additional armor after their summer failures.

Ukrainians over 60 now have the opportunity to voluntarily defend their country. The Ukrainian Parliament has passed a law allowing citizens over that age to join the military under a contract, which is entirely voluntary and without coercion, reports deputy Iryna Friz from the European Solidarity party.

“It’s important to understand that no compulsory mobilization is planned for this age group. This is purely a voluntary option for those who genuinely want to continue or start service after reaching the maximum age,” Friz explains. 

Citizens over 60 can serve under contract

The new law allows citizens over 60 who wish to serve to sign a contract with the approval of their commander and the General Staff.

Military-medical commission confirms health

A fitness assessment by a military medical commission is a mandatory requirement. Contracts are for one year, with a two-month probationary period and the possibility of extension.

Voluntary choice, not mobilization

Social media recently circulated rumors about mobilizing people over 60. The law clarifies that this is only a voluntary opportunity for those who have the health, strength, and willingness to serve.

Australia delivers a major blow to Russia’s oil profits. The country has slashed the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.60 per barrel and imposed sanctions on 95 more vessels from Russia’s “shadow fleet.” The decision was coordinated with the EU, UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan.

The Australian Foreign Ministry has stated that lowering the oil price cap from $60 per barrel to $47.60 will reduce the market value of Russian crude and help deprive Russia’s war economy of revenue from raw materials.

The government also maintains a total ban on Russian oil and petroleum product imports. More than 150 ships have been sanctioned since June 2025.

Australia tightens grip on Russia’s “shadow fleet”

The latest measures target 95 tankers, with intelligence on 60 vessels provided to international partners by Ukraine’s sanctions group.

“Ukraine has also imposed national sanctions on the captains of 15 of these tankers,” Andrii Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, reveals.

Ukraine welcomes Canberra’s support

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has thanked his Australian counterpart Penny Wong for the decision.

“Australia is helping to restrict Russia’s ability to fund its war and undermine global peace. We value our strong partnership with Australia and continue to stand together for shared values,” he said.

A united front to cut the Kremlin’s oil revenues

Australia’s sanctions are part of a wider Western strategy to reduce the Kremlin’s energy income. Partner governments believe that only sustained pressure on Russia’s oil sector can significantly weaken its capacity to fund the war against Ukraine.

On 18 September around 10am, Russian forces struck the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka with a FAB-250 bomb with a UMPK guiding module, killing 5 civilians, the National Police of Ukraine reported. 

Kostiantynivka, in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine, is located near the front line and has been frequently targeted by Russian forces since the start of the full-scale invasion.

The FAB-250 is a Soviet-designed, 250-kilogram general-purpose bomb that Russia often modifies with glide kits such as the UMPK module to increase its range and accuracy.

The victims – three men and two women aged 62 to 74 – were killed in the street. Four apartment buildings were also damaged.

The Donetsk Regional Prosecutor’s Office has opened a pre-trial investigation into a potential war crime over the attack.

US President Trump has issued a set of sweeping demands to the European Union on how to escalate pressure on Russia — but unnamed European diplomats told The Wall Street Journal they believe the plan is intentionally designed to fail.

Trump’s Russia demands spark alarm in Brussels

According to WSJ, Trump urged the EU to immediately halt purchases of Russian oil, impose tariffs on India and China over their trade with Moscow, and seize frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense.

The EU delayed a new sanctions package this week as leaders scrambled to respond. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said after speaking with Trump that the bloc would push for additional restrictions on Russia’s banking sector, crypto market, and energy system.  This response falls far short of what Washington is pressing for.

According to Dr. Marina Miron of King’s College London, Moscow has shifted its approach. Instead of massive assaults such as those in Bakhmut which cost tens of thousands of lives the Russian army is now applying a “squeeze-out” strategy: controlling supply routes, deploying swarms of drones, and gradually creating conditions in which Ukraine’s defenses collapse without a direct assault on the city.

Pokrovsk, with a pre-war population of around 60,000, is a key transport hub where major highways and railways intersect. For Russia, it is both a symbolic and strategic target the “gateway to Donetsk.” If the city falls, it could place Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the main strongholds of Ukrainian defenses in Donbas, under immediate threat.

At the same time, Russia is intensifying its offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, advancing near Kupiansk. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this city where several critical railway lines converge holds immense logistical importance. Its loss would severely disrupt Ukraine’s supply chains across a large section of the front.

The battle for Pokrovsk and the pressure on Kupiansk carry implications far beyond Ukraine. If Russia succeeds in breaking Ukrainian defenses with its new tactics, it will send a clear message to NATO and allied nations: Moscow has adapted and is now capable of achieving objectives with fewer losses. This development would force the West to rethink its defense strategies and highlight the urgent need to supply Ukraine with air defense systems, ammunition, and counter-drone technologies.

Amid this escalating threat, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leveraged an interview with Sky News to call on Donald Trump to clarify his position on sanctions against Russia and security guarantees for Ukraine. His message underscores a stark reality:

The time for decisions in Western capitals is running out just as quickly as Ukraine’s resources on the battlefield.

Exclusive

Putin needs Pokrovsk to unlock the Donbas—but it’s costing him everything. With 602 tanks lost, the Donbas fortress city is becoming this war’s Stalingrad

Brussels completes Ukraine screening as farm politics threatens EU unity. Ukraine completes final EU agricultural screening while farmers battle war, misconceptions, and rising grain prices.

Deaths outpace births 3-to-1 as Ukraine raises baby bonuses. Ukraine’s fertility hits 0.8 as experts doubt financial fixes.

Military

Ukrainian partisans near Yekaterinburg cut all Russia’s strategic supply lines 2,087 km from frontlines. ATESH saboteurs disrupt ammunition, fuel, and troop movements.

Four-pronged Russian attack fails to crush Ukraine this summer — Zelenskyy reveals staggering losses

. Even in one of the war’s fiercest fronts, Moscow’s overextended army hits wall after wall of Ukrainian resistance.

Kenyan athlete says he was lured to Russian army, but Ukrainian fighters who captured him aren’t so sure about that. Signed papers he couldn’t read, trained under threats, and vanished into forests to survive.

US military officers attend Zapad-2025 exercises in Belarus for first time since full-scale invasion. Two American defense attachés accepted an invitation to the Russian-Belarusian military drills.

Intelligence and technology

Ukrainian forces burn three Russian air defense systems worth $80–90 million with “innovations”

. Tor-M2 and Buk systems worth tens of millions burned, but Ukraine’s Nemesis promises the full story will come later.

Russian propaganda seeks to shift blame for NATO drone strikes to unexpected country. Staged videos and fake debris appear online as Moscow masks its own incursions into Western skies.

International

Ukraine’s Plan A: peace, but Russia doesn’t want it. Plan B: $60 billion for 2026 from allies — Zelenskyy. With Russia demanding surrender and Washington withholding aid, Ukraine braces for an unsustainable financial cliff.

Kyiv ratifies century-long pact with UK, while security guarantees hang in balance. The majority of Ukrainian deputies vote for the historic agreement between the two states.

Humanitarian and social impact

“Stayed indoors for nearly three years”: Ukraine brings kids home from jaws of occupation — yet 19,546 remain abducted by Russia. Zelenskyy’s humanitarian program reunites the most vulnerable, while Russia continues to steal children for its war machine.

Ukraine and Poland will sign a new agreement focused on drone operations and military cooperation, RMF24 reports. The pact, announced during an unannounced visit by Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz to Kyiv on 18 September, will include drone crew training and draw heavily on Ukraine’s battlefield experience.

Poland and Ukraine to cooperate on drone warfare under new agreement

RMF24 says that Kosiniak-Kamysz stated in Kyiv that the two countries will sign an agreement covering cooperation between their defense ministries and joint efforts in mastering drone operations.

“We will sign an agreement on cooperation between the ministries, and also on acquiring skills in drone operations,” he said.

According to Kosiniak-Kamysz, Polish troops will work with their Ukrainian counterparts to develop skills in using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). He added that another focus will be improving Polish forces’ capabilities based on the experience gained by Ukraine during its war against Russian forces.

“Another issue is improving the skills of our troops based on experience from Ukraine,” the minister said.

He emphasized that implementing battlefield lessons is vital not just for Poland’s military reforms, but for NATO as a whole.

“The implementation of lessons from the new battlefield is crucial for the transformation of the Polish Armed Forces and, in general, for the transformation of NATO,” he said.

Kosiniak-Kamysz also highlighted the importance of the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training, and Education Center (JATEC) located in Bydgoszcz. He said it is “the only institution that tangibly connects NATO and Ukraine,” and noted it will be central to further defense integration and drone warfare development.

Polish minister acknowledges tensions but stresses shared strategic goal

Kosiniak-Kamysz acknowledged that tensions occasionally arise between the two countries but stressed that the broader goal of confronting the real threat must remain the focus.

“I am aware of the emotions that sometimes grow between us, between Poland and Ukraine, but they cannot obscure our strategic goal. The enemy is elsewhere. He cannot be sought in ourselves or between us,” he said.

The Standard reports that three people were arrested in the town of Grays, Essex, England on suspicion of assisting Russian intelligence services. The UK police operation reflects growing concern over foreign states using British citizens as local proxies.

Suspects arrested under new spy law in UK suburb

According to The Standard, two men and a woman were detained in Grays, a commuter town located east of London. The Metropolitan Police said the arrests were made as part of a national security investigation targeting individuals believed to be working with or for Russian intelligence.

Authorities stated that the suspects were taken into custody on suspicion of assisting a foreign intelligence service, under section 3 of the National Security Act (NSA), 2023. The suspects include a 41-year-old man and a 35-year-old woman arrested at the same residential address, and a 46-year-old man arrested separately nearby.

All three were transferred to a police station in London for questioning. Following searches at both Essex locations, the individuals were released on bail with conditions. The investigation is ongoing.

Police say Russia is now recruiting local “proxies” in the UK

Commander Dominic Murphy, Head of the UK’s Counter Terrorism Command, warned that recent cases show a rising trend of British citizens being recruited as proxies by hostile intelligence agencies.

“Through our recent national security casework, we’re seeing an increasing number of who we would describe as ‘proxies’ being recruited by foreign intelligence services,” Murphy said.

He cited a separate case involving two British men who were recruited by the Wagner Group — a Russian state-affiliated paramilitary organization — to commit arson against a warehouse linked to Ukraine. The men have been convicted and are awaiting sentencing. Murphy clarified that the Essex arrests are unrelated to that incident but urged anyone contacted by foreign actors to think twice.

“This kind of activity will be investigated and anyone found to be involved can expect to be prosecuted,” he said, adding that there could be “very serious consequences for those who are convicted.”

Senior Kremlin officials, likely with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval, pushed Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak out of his position after repeated clashes over the war in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 17 September. Russian state media outlet RBK stated that two sources familiar with the situation confirmed Kozak “resigned” from his post over the weekend of 13 to 14 September. RBK noted he is now considering business offers following his exit.

The allegedly dissenting voice in 2022

Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnov reported on 17 September that sources in Moscow said Kozak “voluntarily” left his position. Dubnov highlighted that Kozak was the only official at the 21 February 2022 Security Council meeting who opposed launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian journalist Alexey Venediktov also confirmed this account.

Kozak reportedly attempted to negotiate with Ukraine at the start of the war, proposing that Kyiv renounce NATO membership. Putin allegedly rejected the talks because he also wanted to annex Ukrainian territory, according to ISW.

Collapse of influence inside Kremlin

The New York Times reported on 10 August that both Western and Russian sources said Kozak’s influence declined sharply in recent months, aaccording to ISW. He reportedly urged Putin to stop fighting in Ukraine, begin peace talks, and reduce the power of Russia’s security services. Those disagreements placed him at odds with Putin and his allies, including Kremlin Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko.

Putin signed a decree on 29 August abolishing two Kremlin departments Kozak supervised: the Department for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries and the Department for Cross-Border Cooperation. Analysts assess this was likely in preparation for Kozak’s removal. Reports on 17 September that he is considering business positions refuted earlier claims that he was a candidate for Presidential Plenipotentiary Representative in the Northwestern Federal DIstrict, showing the Kremlin opted to remove him entirely from state structures.

Reports indicate Kiriyenko has also recently assumed control of the Kremlin’s Moldova portfolio. This handover consolidates Kiriyenko’s power and responsibilities within the Russian Presidential Administration.

“Putin’s likely decision to push an established senior Kremlin official from his inner circle after expressing a desire to end the war in Ukraine further indicates that Putin and his advisors are coalescing around their commitment to continue the war in Ukraine and around Putin’s maximalist war demands,” ISW assessed.

Ukraine has received 1,000 bodies which the Russian side says are Ukrainian servicepeople, as part of coordinated repatriation efforts, Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported on 18 September.

The repatriation of fallen soldiers is a critical component of wartime humanitarian and legal obligations. It allows families to recover the remains of loved ones, ensures proper identification, and supports official record-keeping and investigations. 

Law enforcement investigators and expert institutions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs will conduct necessary examinations and identify the repatriated remains in the coming days.

The operation involved a broad range of Ukrainian authorities, including the Armed Forces, the Security Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Emergency Service, and the Office of the Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights. The International Committee of the Red Cross also assisted in the efforts.

Personnel from the Armed Forces organized the transport of the fallen to state facilities and facilitated handover to law enforcement and forensic experts for identification.

In conflicts like the war in Ukraine, coordinated efforts between military, law enforcement, and international organizations such as the Red Cross are essential to carry out these operations safely and respectfully.

Russia burns through 68 soldiers for every square kilometer around Pokrovsk. The math is starting to matter.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reached peak offensive operations as the Kremlin orders its armed forces to capture the rest of the Donbas region. With casualties climbing dramatically as Moscow attempts to capture their primary objectives in the four occupied regions, Kyiv is fortifying Pokrovsk—what’s becoming the largest battle of the war so far.

Russia has massed one of their largest troop gatherings since the beginning of the full-scale war, hoping to make a decisive push to break through Ukrainian lines in Pokrovsk and open the remaining stronghold cities to further offensives.

After a year of continuous offensive activity, Russian forces still don’t have a foothold in the city. Ukraine’s Armed Forces continue holding a concrete defense.

The Russian push toward Pokrovsk is seeing casualties and equipment losses that dwarf all other battles of the war so far.

Why Russia bled out at Avdiivka

In February 2024, Russian forces captured the strategic city of Avdiivka, which sat on key terrain overlooking Donetsk City center.

The capture came at a heavy price—the Russian military suffered casualties ranging from 25,000 to 40,000, making the battle deadlier than Bakhmut. Regular forces, rather than Wagner mercenaries, took the brunt of the fighting.

Despite inflicting heavy attrition on the Russian military, Kyiv hadn’t fortified the defensive lines behind Avdiivka sufficiently. The Ukrainian high command—whether due to negligence, miscommunication, or poor leadership—left gaps that would prove costly.

Where Russian armor goes to die

For most of late winter to early spring 2025, the frontline situation was a stalemate as Ukrainian reserves came in, partially due to the Kursk offensive failing, and Ukrainian forces from the operation being allocated in the sector. Ukraine is also mass-producing various types of drones that help alleviate the artillery shortage by targeting Russian armor.

At the same time in 2025, Russia conducted various offensives in Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which hampered major reinforcements entering the Pokrovsk sector, allowing Ukraine to build up fortifications and consolidate its defenses continuously.

The Czech shell initiative also gathered artillery for the Ukrainian frontlines, giving Ukrainian forces more defense allocations to hold the lines against daily Russian assaults.

Despite being only a few kilometers from the outer city, waves of FPV drone attacks have littered the roads into Pokrovsk with Russian armor and corpses that are nearly unretrievable, turning the frontlines into a no-man’s land. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces are suffering 68 casualties per square kilometer gained in the Pokrovsk direction.

The equipment losses during this offensive are staggering.

To put this in perspective: according to the Oryx blog, Russia has lost 4,000 tanks total, making Pokrovsk the deadliest offensive for Russian forces to date.

Explore further

Russia saved armor all year for this moment—150,000 troops close in on Pokrovsk

When glide bombs meet drone swarms

Russia holds an advantage in the air with dozens of airstrikes from its deadly glide bombs that can take out fortifications, despite taking extremely heavy casualties. On the ground, Russia has a 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 manpower advantage.

Ukrainian units also face difficulties with recruitment, unit rotations, and morale due to poor leadership—weaknesses the Russians have exploited. One of Ukraine’s biggest challenges in the war today is fixing issues related to recruitment, negligence of commanders, and improving morale.

Kyiv was able to reorganize its defense and conduct localized counterattacks from late February to early March 2025, as the settlement of Kotlyne was liberated, which pushed back a potential Russian salient. Russia conducted its major summer offensive a month later, putting pressure on the strategic H-32 highway.

With tank and armor losses littering the highways, Russia adopted tactics of sending unsupported infantry assaults, known as sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

If the groups exploit those positions, Russia gradually sends more forces to reinforce that point—which they did during the summer, as there were fears of infiltration into Pokrovsk city in July.

How Azov crushed Russia’s breakthrough

Near Dobropillia, Russia sent several hundred reconnaissance groups, which managed to break through Ukrainian lines in mid-August, causing enough panic for Kyiv to send major reinforcements.

Explore further

Russia lost a brigade near Dobropillya—more brigades are coming

Why this city decides everything

The Pokrovsk offensive is becoming the pinnacle of warfare during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As both countries have exhausted their militaries, the fate of the city during the next few months could determine how the war concludes.

But here’s what’s at stake globally: occupying Pokrovsk could give Russia strategic topography to press onto the rest of the Donetsk fortress cities. Ukrainian forces continue buying valuable time to prepare defenses for the rest of the oblast.

According to the British Ministry of Defense, it would take Russia another two million men and perhaps four years even to capture the rest of Donbas—time Putin can’t afford. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Lieutenant General Budanov, stated Russia looks to end the full-scale war sometime in 2026 before the economy cracks, and to do that, Pokrovsk will need to be captured to open up the rest of the fortified cities of Donetsk.

Right now, the longer Ukraine holds Pokrovsk, inflicts catastrophic losses, and buys time for greater fortifications to be completed in the fortress cities, the better it is for Kyiv. Without capturing Pokrovsk, particularly by the end of winter 2026, Russia—with its economy already reeling from Ukrainian strikes on refineries—could finally be forced to negotiate fairly.

If Russia doesn’t want to negotiate and presses beyond its current economic and military capabilities after exhausting its forces, Moscow could face a homegrown collapse akin to the Soviet-Afghan War, and the Battle of Pokrovsk could be the catalyst for it.

Explore further

Frontline report: Russia’s Pokrovsk offensive collapses into chaos — Ukrainian forces seize the moment and liberate Udachne

Julian McBride

Julian McBride is a former US Marine, forensic anthropologist, defense analyst, and independent journalist born in New York. His bylines can be found in the National Security Journal, Byline Times, 19FortyFive, Heritage Daily, The Defense Post, Journal of Forensic Psychology, Modern Warfare Institute, Manara Mag, The Strategist, Pacific Forum, E-International Relations, NKInsider, Cipher Brief, Mosern Diplomacy, and UK Defence Journal.

An investigation by RFE/RL has uncovered details about the highly secretive elite Russian drone formation: the Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies. 

Rubicon has become one of Russia’s most formidable forces on the battlefield since the battle for Russia’s Kursk Oblast in mid 2024.

Throughout Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, drones have increasingly become critical to the conflict, reshaping both battlefield tactics and long-range operations. Both Moscow and Kyiv are constantly adapting, deploying new drone technologies and countermeasures to strike supply lines, observe enemy movements, and target key infrastructure.

Russia’s Rubicon has proven especially effective at challenging Ukraine’s previously-superior drone capabilities on the battlefield. 

Key findings from the RFE/RL report:

• Commander: Colonel Sergei Budnikov, 37, former artillery and marine officer.
• Headquarters: Facilities include Patriot Park near Moscow, used for training and testing drones.
• Formation: Established mid-2024, shortly after Andrei Belousov became Russia’s defense minister.
• Structure: At least seven detachments, 130–150 personnel each, specializing in drone attacks, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare.
• Recruitment: Offers bonuses up to 3 million rubles ($36,000) to attract skilled personnel.

The RFE/RL reporting identifies Colonel Sergei Budnikov, a 37-year-old career artillery and marine officer, as the unit’s commander – the first public confirmation of his leadership.

One of the unit’s main facilities appears to be at the Patriot Park Exhibition and Congress Center near Moscow, which hosts training and testing activities. 

Analysts say Rubicon represents a new level of organization and systematic planning within the Russian military, narrowing Ukraine’s previously decisive advantage in drone warfare.

Rubicon was created in mid-2024, shortly after Andrei Belousov became Russia’s defense minister. It operates as a hybrid organization, combining drone development, operator training, and electronic warfare, with at least seven detachments of 130-150 personnel each, each specializing in different aspects of unmanned operations.

Rubicon in Kursk Oblast

The unit first made its mark countering Ukraine’s operations in Kursk Oblast. Working alongside Russian regular troops and North Korean reinforcements, Rubicon employed highly coordinated drone strikes on short sections of roads supplying Ukrainian positions, often striking vehicles from multiple angles to overwhelm defenses. 

These efforts ultimately forced Kyiv to retreat from the region and allow Russia to regain almost all of Kursk Oblast.

Previous reporting has shown that Rubicon’s drones use rapid frequency shifts and electronic countermeasures to bypass Ukrainian jamming, targeting both frontline convoys and operators stationed far behind the lines. 

Rubicon units now systematically target Ukrainian drone operators who fly drones from distant positions away from the front lines. 

One brigade reportedly lost 70% of their drone operators in a single week due to Rubicon’s precision strikes.

Experts warn that unless Kyiv develops more advanced counter measures, Russia’s elite drone force will remain a persistent threat across multiple sectors of the front.

Ukraine and Poland have agreed to establish a joint operational group on unmanned aerial systems, with representatives from both countries’ armed forces, Interfax-Ukraine reported on 18 September.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal announced the agreement during a press conference in Kyiv with his Polish counterpart Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who arrived on an unannounced visit.

“Today we agreed on a number of important steps. First – the creation of a joint operational group on unmanned aerial systems, which will include representatives of Ukrainian and Polish armed forces,” Shmyhal said.

The group will serve as a platform for coordination and development of joint initiatives, according to the Ukrainian minister. “We will integrate the latest defense technologies and initiate new projects that should strengthen the protection of our people and our critical infrastructure,” he stated.

Joint training programs will form the central element of this operational group. “…Which, I am confident, will strengthen our ability to resist a common enemy,” Shmyhal added.

Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz announced the signing of an agreement on acquiring drone operation skills during his Kyiv visit. “Discussions will focus on developing joint industrial initiatives. I think Poles are looking forward to this after such large-scale efforts aimed at helping the population,” the Polish minister said.

Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized that implementing lessons learned from the Ukrainian battlefield is crucial for transforming Poland’s Armed Forces and NATO as a whole. He noted “obvious openness and readiness for cooperation” from the Ukrainian side.

The Polish minister addressed bilateral tensions directly: “I realize the emotions that sometimes arise between us, between Poland and Ukraine, but they should not overshadow our strategic goal. The enemy is elsewhere. It should not be sought within ourselves, among ourselves.”

The agreement represents a step toward deeper defense cooperation between the two countries, with focus on drone technology and joint military training programs.

Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan on 18 September, about 1,300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The attack targeted the heart of the facility — a crude distillation unit, essential for the refinery’s operations.

Strike hits Gazprom’s Salavat refinery

Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ published video clips and photos showing flames at the Gazprom Nefetkhim Salavat refinery, located in the city of Salavat in Russia’s Bashkortostan.

The channel wrote that the drone which flew through the night and was tracked in the morning eventually hit its target during the day-time.

Exilenova+ reported the strike occurred around 10:00 and damaged the ELOU-AVT-4 distillation unit. The channel commented that Russian refineries are vulnerable even at a distance of 1,300 kilometers, praising the successful hit.

Another post from Exilenova+ shared coordinates of the damaged site and noted that the ELOU-AVT-4 unit is a key facility.

Local reports of explosions

Russian news Telegram channel Astra said residents of Salavat reported explosions and then heavy smoke after the strike. The channel noted that confirmation of details was limited at the time, but eyewitness videos showed the burning facility.

Bashkortostan’s head Radyi Khabirov later confirmed the attack. He called it a “terrorist attack” on Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat, claiming two aircraft-type drones were used.

“Two aircraft-type drones attacked the facility. There are no dead or injured. Passive and active defenses were triggered, and the plant’s security opened fire to destroy them. We are determining the extent of the damage. The fire is now being extinguished, and all services are on site,” Khabirov stated.

Strategic importance of the refinery

Gazprom Neftkhim Salavat is one of the largest petrochemical and oil-processing factories in southern Bashkortostan. Astra reported it produces more than 150 types of products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, bitumen, and polyethylene. In 2024 the company reported revenue of 303 billion rubles and net profit of 4.4 billion.

The refinery processes up to 10 million tons of crude annually, Militarnyi wrote. The defense outlet stressed that the ELOU-AVT-4 unit handles primary crude purification, making it crucial for the plant’s entire production cycle. Militarnyi added that disruption of the unit would have serious consequences for the enterprise.

Previous strikes in Bashkortostan

Salavat was previously targeted in May 2024, when a drone hit the pumping station of the same oil facility. Earlier this month on 13 September, drones also struck two Bashneft refineries in Ufa, damaging installations and pipelines. On 16 September, Khabirov signed an order banning publication of information about drone strikes in Bashkortostan.

Tanks from Ukraine’s 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade completely destroyed a building occupied by Russian infantry in a close-range engagement, the Third Army Corps press service reported on 18 September.

Russian forces had fortified themselves in an abandoned residential building in one of the settlements within the corps’ area of responsibility.

“For the defeat of enemy forces, a tank from one of the battalions was deployed: the combat vehicle approached point-blank to the structure and opened aimed fire,” the press service said.

The precise shots completely destroyed the building along with the Russian assault troops positioned inside, according to the military report.

The engagement highlights the operational methods of the Third Army Corps, which incorporates the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade as its core unit. The formation also includes the 53rd, 60th, and 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As of early August, the corps has taken up a section of the front in Luhansk Oblast, where it simultaneously confronts three Russian armies – the 1st Tank Army and the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies of the Russian Federation, the press service reports.

The tank engagement demonstrates the tactical approach employed by Ukrainian armored units in urban combat situations where Russian forces attempt to establish defensive positions in civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine and the European Commission wrapped up final agricultural screening meetings in Brussels on 15 September, completing a multi-year process that marks a historic milestone in the country’s EU accession journey.

Ukraine’s agricultural sector—which supplied 50% of the UN World Food Programme’s grain before the war and remains a critical supplier to food-stressed regions—is moving closer to EU Common Agricultural Policy integration.

Yet, the milestone also exposes a fundamental disconnect that threatens Ukraine’s European future and the EU’s strategic coherence. While Brussels debates abstract concerns about Ukrainian “mega farms,” the reality on the ground reveals a far more complex agricultural landscape fighting for survival under Russian bombardment.

Screening completion sets the stage for integration challenges

The three-day Brussels meetings represented years of preparation culminating in Ukraine presenting 28 thematic blocks covering agricultural reforms, digitalization, state support, and market regulation.

The screening completes Cluster 5, “Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion Policy,” the final piece in Ukraine’s six-cluster accession negotiations. According to EU officials, the bilateral screening process will be finalized by autumn 2025, with Ukraine aiming to meet opening benchmarks by the end of 2026.

But agriculture remains the most politically sensitive chapter. Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka called it one of the “most sensitive” negotiation topics, reflecting concerns that have triggered farmer protests across Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, forcing the EU to pay €156 million in compensation to affected farmers.

War damage meets policy misconceptions

Let us consider the context. As Ukrainian agriculture faces its most challenging period since independence—with an estimated $80 billion in war damages and farmers operating under daily missile and drone attacks—European policy debates continue to focus on abstract threats.

The European Parliament’s research briefing, published in April 2024, confirmed that Ukrainian agriculture has been “a primary military target of Russia’s aggression,” with Ukraine now controlling an estimated 26.5 million hectares of arable land, down from 32.7 million before the war.

Yet as Ukrainian farmers die defending their fields, European discourse remains fixated on what Politico describes as “farm giants and oligarch-owned holdings” that have become “the face of the country’s agriculture in Europe, looming as an existential threat at the border.”

The human reality tells a different story. Oleksandr Hordiienko, a 58-year-old farmer from Kherson, was killed by a Russian drone in early September while driving across his war-scarred fields.

Current agricultural statistics underscore the wartime challenges. Ukrainian exports dropped 33% in the first two months of the 2025/26 marketing year compared to the previous season, with wheat exports totaling just 3.1 million tons through early September—over 1 million tons less than last year.

Yet grain prices are rising, with wheat climbing from 7,350 UAH/t ($178) in mid-September to 8,750 UAH/t ($212), driven by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure rather than supply shortages.

The complex reality behind the stereotypes

Ukrainian farmers increasingly challenge the aforementioned European misconceptions about the country’s agriculture being dominated solely by oligarch-held farm giants.

“Ukrainian farmers must start now: To explain who we are: not oligarchs, but independent producers. To show what we need: not handouts, but clarity and fairness,” argues Andrii Dykun, Chairman of the Ukrainian Agri Council.

The reality indeed is quite diverse, with medium-sized and family businesses accounting for about 80% of agricultural enterprises, while only 20% operate companies with more than 10,000 hectares. Nearly 4 million households work the land, producing 95% of Ukraine’s potatoes, 85% of vegetables, 80% of fruit and berries, and 75% of milk.

The 8,600 medium-sized farms of 200-2,000 hectares—not the massive holdings that dominate headlines—produced over 50% of cereal output before the war. Even EU analysis acknowledges that 58% of production comes from structures under 1,000 hectares.

The picture is quite far from the “oligarch” stereotype, also when looking at operations that would be considered massive by European standards.

Politico recently profiled Akhmil Alkhadzhi, whose Syrian father helped build a family company cultivating 3,500 hectares—“middling” in Ukraine but enormous by European standards. When Russia invaded, wheat prices collapsed from $250-300 per ton to $70. To keep the business alive and support 60 employees representing “300 or 400 lives depending on us,” Alkhadzhi sold his apartment abroad. “We stayed without an apartment, but with a business,” he said.

Markets diversify as political tensions persist

Russia’s systematic targeting of Ukrainian food systems has evolved beyond direct agricultural attacks toward economic warfare. Moscow inflates costs across food production sectors by attacking energy infrastructure while maintaining plausible deniability.

“Electricity, logistics, and fuel costs for businesses are constantly rising,” Denis Marchuk, deputy head of the Ukrainian Agri Council, explained.

While the EU became increasingly important during the war, now taking 51% of Ukraine’s wheat exports compared to 30% in 2021, Ukraine maintains global diversification. In the first months of 2025/26, key destinations included Egypt (18% of grain exports), Indonesia (13%), China (10%), Vietnam (8%), and Türkiye (8%). India takes 17% of vegetable oils, with Iraq, Türkiye, and China following.

This diversification proves Ukrainian farmers’ core argument: they seek “regulatory access” to EU markets rather than dependency. As Dykun notes: “Once it became clear that Ukrainian producers were not looking for shortcuts, but rather fair treatment under EU rules, the tone softened.”

Political tensions nonetheless persist. Trade preferences expired in June 2025, quotas were reinstated, and emergency brake mechanisms now cover multiple Ukrainian agricultural products.

The legacy of previous restrictions by Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia continues to shadow EU-Ukraine agricultural relations, with tensions persisting into 2024 despite political changes in some countries.

These ongoing disputes underscore the challenges ahead as Ukraine moves from completing technical screenings to implementing actual integration. The 15 September screening completion was easy, demonstrating regulatory alignment on paper. The harder test comes with the political acceptance of Ukrainian competition in European markets.

Integration challenges and strategic stakes

Chapter 11 on Agriculture and Rural Development encompasses substantial EU law governing direct payments, rural development measures, and market interventions. Most rules apply immediately upon accession, making proper implementation critical.

Yet historically, agriculture has proven contentious in most enlargement negotiations, and integrating Ukraine’s sizeable agricultural sector poses unique challenges, especially without prior Common Agricultural Policy reform.

The screening completion demonstrates Ukraine’s institutional capacity for European integration amid active warfare.

As Deputy Prime Minister Kachka noted, “This screening session is not a starting point but a culmination of years of cooperation with the EU. We know our strengths, we understand the challenges and today we have the opportunity to lay the foundation for further integration of Ukraine’s agricultural sector into the EU’s common policy.”

While Russian forces steal grain from occupied territories and systematically target food infrastructure, Ukrainian farmers continue producing crops that feed both domestic and global markets.

This agricultural persistence represents more than economic necessity—it demonstrates the resilience and institutional capacity that make Ukraine’s European integration both possible and strategically vital—if Brussels can move beyond its misconceptions to recognize the complex reality of Ukrainian agriculture fighting for survival and a European future.

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Sopka-2 radar complex in Voronezh Oblast on September 16, damaging the antenna of the long-range surveillance system located more than 170 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, according to ASTRA media outlet.

The attack targeted the tracking radar complex near Garmashevka village in the Kantemirovka district, with one drone detonating and causing damage to the Sopka-2 antenna system, ASTRA reports. Voronezh Oblast Governor Pavel Gusev confirmed the attack occurred but claimed “the drone was destroyed.”

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported shooting down one drone over the region, following its standard practice of announcing successful intercepts.

The Sopka-2 represents a three-coordinate radar system capable of surveillance within a 450-kilometer radius, designed to detect aircraft and determine their range and altitude. The complex operates in all weather conditions, including winds up to 40 meters per second and temperatures as low as -40°C, according to technical specifications.

The strike follows a pattern of Ukrainian forces targeting Russian radar installations. Days earlier, Ukrainian drones destroyed a Russian RLK-1 “Navigation of the South” radar complex in Rostov Oblast, deployed at a former air defense military unit.

Ukrainian Defense Forces have intensified strikes against Russian radar stations in recent months, seeking to degrade radar coverage in specific areas, particularly around temporarily occupied Crimea. On September 5, Ukrainian drone operators struck Russian air defense radars “Podlyot” and “Nebo-M” on the peninsula.

The Sopka-2 operates as an S-band ground-based air surveillance radar with a range of approximately 450 kilometers, according to manufacturer specifications. The system serves to collect, consolidate and analyze data on air situation awareness for Russian military operations.

The attack demonstrates the expanding reach of Ukrainian drone capabilities, with the strike occurring at significant distance from the border and targeting critical radar infrastructure used for early warning and air defense coordination.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared on 16 September that territorial exchanges will not “stop” Russia’s war in Ukraine, directly contradicting recent statements by US President Donald Trump that peace would require “land swaps” between the warring nations, Russian state media TASS reported on 17 September

Speaking on 17 September, Lavrov dismissed proposals to restore US-Russian trade as an incentive for peace, stating such attempts to “entice” President Vladimir Putin would not end the war. The foreign minister reiterated Moscow’s position that any settlement must eliminate what the Kremlin calls the “root causes” of the war.

These root causes, as defined by Kremlin officials, include Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers and NATO expansion. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow has repeatedly used this “root causes” framework to demand the replacement of Ukraine’s current government with a Russian puppet regime, Ukraine’s commitment to neutrality, and the revocation of NATO’s Open Door Policy.

Despite the hardline stance from Lavrov, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov maintained on the same day that Russia remains open to negotiations, claiming Moscow’s “preferred solution” is a political and diplomatic settlement, according to ISW.

The ISW assessed that Russia shows no interest in good-faith negotiations requiring Russian concessions and remains willing to protract the war to achieve its original maximalist war demands through military means rather than diplomacy.

Lithuanian prosecutors and the Criminal Police Bureau have uncovered a group that organized and planned to carry out four terrorist attacks across European countries, with explosives hidden in massage pillows and delivered through DHL and DPD shipping services.

The investigation revealed that on 19 July 2024, Lithuanian citizen AS (born 1973), working with accomplices, used international delivery services to send homemade incendiary explosive devices. Two packages were addressed to the United Kingdom and sent on DHL cargo planes, while two others were sent to Poland via DPD cargo trucks.

The attacks unfolded over three days in July 2024. The first package exploded and ignited at Leipzig Airport in Germany at 05:45 on 20 July, just before loading onto a DHL cargo plane flying the Vilnius-Leipzig-United Kingdom route. A second package detonated at 02:15 on 21 July in a DPD truck traveling through Poland. The third exploded at 03:36 on 22 July at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham, United Kingdom. The fourth package, transported by DPD ground transport through Poland, failed to detonate due to a malfunction in the detonation mechanism.

Investigators determined that the devices were controlled by electronic timers hidden inside massage pillows. Additional flammable mixtures were concealed in hygiene and cosmetic tubes to enhance the incendiary effect. The devices used thermite, an industrial and military substance with extremely high combustion temperatures.

Given the case’s significance and the goal of committing terrorist attacks across multiple countries, Eurojust established a joint investigation team. Law enforcement and intelligence agencies from Lithuania, Poland, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Latvia, Estonia, the United States, and Canada are cooperating closely in the investigation.

The investigation established that Russian Federation citizens organized and coordinated these crimes, with connections to Russian military intelligence. Several coordinators were directly linked to an attempted terrorist attack on 9 May 2024, in Vilnius, when the IKEA shopping center was set on fire.

Two key suspects were identified: Ukrainian citizen Danylo Hromov (born 1988), who also uses personal data of Russian citizen Yaroslav Mikhailov (born 1988), and Tomas Dovgan Stabachinskas (born 1971), who holds both Lithuanian and Russian citizenships.

The investigation revealed that other citizens of Lithuania, Russia, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine were recruited for specific tasks during the attack preparation. They were found through acquaintances, recruited and maintained contact through the Telegram app, with payment offered in cryptocurrency.

The group operated with strict conspiracy protocols, fragmenting tasks among different executors who were typically unconnected to each other. Tasks included transporting packages and flammable substances, transferring them to other participants, hiding them in caches, and activating devices.

More than 30 searches were conducted in Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, and Estonia. During the comprehensive investigative actions, authorities seized explosive substances hidden in tin cans and detonators from illegal circulation. Some devices were manufactured to produce a directed explosion effect using RDX explosive. The total power of the seized devices exceeded 6 kilograms in TNT equivalent. According to the data, these devices could have been intended for other terrorist attacks.

At this stage of the pre-trial investigation, suspicions for organizing and preparing the specified crimes have been presented to a total of 15 suspects – citizens of the Russian Federation, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine.

Germany is throwing its support behind the use of frozen Russian state assets to support Ukraine, marking a significant shift in Berlin’s position, Bloomberg reports.

The move adds momentum to European discussions on how to leverage the roughly $300 billion frozen after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

European governments and G7 allies have been weighing options to channel additional revenue from these funds to bolster Kyiv’s defense. So far, the EU and partners have agreed to direct interest income from the assets to Ukraine, but pressure has been growing to go further.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen earlier this month urged the bloc to create a “reparations loan” for Ukraine, funded by cash balances linked to the frozen Russian assets.

Germany’s support is seen as crucial, as it had previously been wary of measures that might threaten Europe’s financial hub or breach principles of state immunity.

The shift in Berlin reflects fears that declining US support under President Donald Trump could leave Europe shouldering a larger share of the aid for Ukraine. There are concerns this economic burden could also fuel the rise of the country’s far-right. 

The issue will be raised at a meeting of EU finance ministers in Copenhagen this week and again at the October 23-24 EU leaders’ summit, where officials aim to reach a decision.

European Union member states have unanimously agreed to open negotiations with Canada and the United Kingdom on accessing the bloc’s €150 billion defense investment fund, the Danish EU presidency announced.

The decision to begin talks on the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program was reached without opposition. If agreements are finalized, British and Canadian companies could participate in joint procurement funded through SAFE, supplementing recently signed security and defense partnerships between the EU and both countries.

The move comes as other non-EU nations seek entry into the program. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, whose country aspires to EU membership, told NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Brussels on 17 September that he wanted to discuss how Albania could gain SAFE access, Bloomberg reports. Türkiye and South Korea have also requested access to the credit fund.

On 9 September, the EU allocated the €150 billion in SAFE defense credits among 19 countries, with Poland receiving nearly one-third of the funding. Interested countries must submit official applications with investment plans by 30 November 2025. The first credits are expected in early 2026.

The SAFE program was created in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine and the need to strengthen European defense. It provides member states with long-term, low-interest loans for defense equipment purchases.

Currently, funds are primarily available to companies from EU member countries, while Ukraine holds special status — it cannot receive direct credits but can participate in joint procurement.

Ukraine hopes the EU rearmament program will cover shortfalls in domestic financing for Ukrainian manufacturers starting in early 2026.

Russian forces targeted railway infrastructure and civilian facilities across Ukraine during overnight strikes on 17 September, leaving six people injured at a gas station in Poltava Oblast and disrupting train schedules nationwide.

The attack on a gas station in Poltava district injured “five drivers and a female employee,” according to the Poltava Oblast Prosecutor’s Office. The female worker remains in critical condition, while all victims were hospitalized following the strike.

Railway operations faced significant disruption after Russian forces “attacked railway infrastructure in the Myrhorod district of Poltava Oblast,” reported regional administration head Kohut. The strikes caused power outages across several sections, forcing Ukrzaliznytsia to deploy backup diesel locomotives.

Four passenger trains experienced delays of up to three hours:

“As of 07:00, damage has been localized and power has been restored – trains (including suburban electric trains) will continue to operate normally,” Ukrzaliznytsia announced.

The railway attack sparked fires that were “localized by emergency services units,” with one person injured in the incident, Kohut confirmed.

Russian strike drones also hit Poltava district directly, damaging “the building of a gas station,” according to the prosecutor’s office. Authorities opened criminal proceedings under Article 438 Part 1 of the Criminal Code for war crimes, carrying penalties of 8-12 years imprisonment.

The overnight assault extended to Kyiv Oblast, where regional head Mykola Kalashnyk reported fires in two districts. “In Boryspil district, warehouse facilities caught fire. In Bucha district, a fire broke out in a private house,” he said. Emergency services contained both blazes with no preliminary casualties reported.

The large-scale attack began at 9 pm on 17 September, with Russia launching “75 strike drones of Shahed, Gerbera and other types from the directions: Kursk, Orel, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk,” according to Ukraine’s Air Force. Over 40 of the attacking drones were Shaheds.

“Ukrainian Defense Forces’ aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, unmanned systems units, and mobile fire groups” repelled the air attack, the Air Force reported.

By 9 am on 18 September, air defenses had “shot down/suppressed 48 Russian drones of Shahed, Gerbera and other types in the north, east and center of the country.” One Russian drone remained airborne at the time of the morning report.

A Ukrainian Armed Forces major has been convicted of high treason and sentenced to 15 years imprisonment with property confiscation for collaborating with Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

The Lviv Railway Court verdict doesn’t name the convicted officer, but Zaxid.net identified him as Major Yuriy Lavryk. His case matches the July announcement from Ukraine’s Security Service and Prosecutor General’s Office about capturing an FSB operative embedded in the Ukrainian Air Force.

Lavryk filmed Ukrainian military positions from inside his own base in western Lviv and handed the videos to Russian intelligence, according to the court documents. This information could further be used for drone or missile strikes on Ukraine.

Recruited through his wife who sided with occupiers

The recruitment came through family. Lavryk’s ex-wife lived in Melitopol, southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, when Russia invaded in February 2022. She sided with the occupiers and agreed to work with them. Russian FSB operatives used her as their bridge to Lavryk.

From his position at the Lviv military unit, Lavryk recorded personnel locations and equipment deployments. Each video went to his former spouse, who passed the intelligence to her Russian handlers.

Buys phone cards to build Russian spy communication inside Ukraine

But Lavryk’s work extended beyond gathering military secrets. He purchased multiple Ukrainian mobile phone starter packs, activated them in Lviv, then provided the numbers to FSB operatives through his ex-wife. The phones gave Russian intelligence a communication network inside Ukraine.

Investigators found more than espionage equipment when they searched Lavryk’s Lviv residence. He had stored a Kalashnikov AKS-74U assault rifle and 30 rounds of ammunition—illegal weapons that added another charge to his conviction.

Lavryk admitted his guilt under three articles of Ukraine’s Criminal Code:

• high treason
• conspiracy
• illegal weapons possession.

The 15-year sentence includes complete property confiscation.

Today, the biggest news comes from the Kupiansk direction, Kharkiv Oblast.

Here, Belarusian volunteers fighting for Ukraine are hammering Russian positions and dismantling their staging grounds. Ideologically opposed to Russia’s invasion and morality, they are taking expert advantage of weak spots that appeared after Russian generals recently grossly misallocated their resources. 

At Kupiansk, Ukrainians continue to hold the line with commandos of the Ukrainian intelligence directorate forming a formidable part of the defense, and standing beside them, integrated into the unit, is the Belarusian Volunteer Corps.

While there are many groups of Belarusian volunteers, this unit is integrated into and has received special forces-level training from Ukraine. They do not operate alone, instead acting as support elements for deep special forces raids, sabotage, and reconnaissance missions, as well as a number of teams conducting these operations themselves. 

For one of these missions, Belarusians in the mortar unit of the volunteer corps modified and specialized their rounds for a specific purpose. Combining a napalm-like substance with thermite flakes, these incendiary shells were meant to burn away forest cover, force Russians out of their dugouts into the open, and create a massive, long-lasting distraction. 

Geolocated footage shows these rounds landing in streaks on a small forest near the settlement of Kindrashivka, the napalm-like substance holding the incendiary thermite flakes together burning at over 2,000 degrees Celsius or 3,600 Fahrenheit. 

The mission was to hold an active defense in front of Kindrashivka, as Russian infiltrators have regularly tried to establish a foothold here. The forest is linked to the settlement by a narrow series of tree lines through which Russian infantry move under the cover of darkness, after gathering first in the forest. 

However, the fires raining down on them distracted the Russians and flushed them out of their hideouts. Reportedly, they were then engaged from behind by a special forces raiding party that cleared the forest of Russian soldiers. 

The Belarusian operation here was a direct result of problems caused by Russian commanders themselves. Recently, amidst stalling progress at Kupiansk and eager to report success, another classical flag planting operation was launched; however, this one made the mistake of reporting successes far beyond what was believable.

Russian soldiers were forced to move into Kupiansk in civilian clothing to prevent Ukrainian interdiction, before unfurling flags all the way in the center of the town. Proudly satisfied they could publish footage proving the Russian capture of half of the town in a single day, Russians shared the footage across social media, which was then promptly tracked and geolocated by the Ukrainian 10th Army Corps. 

Discovering every single one of these infiltration groups, the Russian pretenders were quickly dispatched by FPV drone strikes and elite forces going door to door. The Russian tricolors were taken as trophies, while Russian military analysts were forced to admit that commanders had sent in these soldiers to die for an information victory that only lasted a couple of hours. 

While not only a suicide mission for the Russian soldiers involved, the operation was a gross misallocation of Russian resources across the Oskil River. The wasteful throwing away of dozens of soldiers’ lives left Russian soldiers fighting the actual battle without reinforcements; a situation lasting several days due to the difficulty of fording troops across the heavily monitored river. 

The Belarusian operation of destroying a Russian staging ground was only a part of the Ukrainian response, as combined Ukrainian forces across the entire Russian bridgehead took advantage of the Russian miscalculation.

Notably, Russian commanders tried to salvage the situation with yet another flag planting operation, this time sticking the Russian flag to the Kupiansk Television mast with drones and a magnet, enraging Russian military observers who, in response, called for the complete purging of the command and leadership of the Russian Sixth Army. 

Overall, Russian commanders made a gross mistake, leading to the deaths of dozens of their fighters, leaving Russians fighting the actual battle for Kupiansk understaffed and without reinforcements. Taking advantage, Ukrainians cleared out Russian staging grounds, as Belarusian volunteers showed highly adaptive skills, creating explosives tailored specifically for the mission at hand.

 As the Belarusian force trained in the ways of Ukrainian special forces numbers approximately 300 soldiers in the Kupiansk direction alone, these motivated fighters are demonstrating their commitment to the cause and indomitable will to fight against what they consider to be the Russian menace.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

As the war grinds on, Ukraine needs hundreds of billions of dollars. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that if the war continues into 2026, the country will lack $120 billion annually to finance defense and recovery. 

Half of this sum—$60 billion—comes from Ukraine’s budget, while another $60 billion must be secured from other sources, primarily Western partners.

The cost of war for Ukraine

“During the war, the cost of this conflict for one year amounts to $120 billion,” Zelenskyy stressed during a joint briefing with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola in Kyiv.

He added that Plan A is to end the war, while Plan B is to secure $120 billion in funding.

Daily expenses and reliance on partners

Earlier, Chief of the General Staff Andrii Hnatov noted that Ukraine spends about $172 million per day fighting Russia.

The country cannot sustain such costs with its own resources alone, making Western financial support critical, Novini.Live reports. 

Russia’s unwillingness to end the war

Despite phone calls from US President Donald Trump to Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his invitation to a summit in Alaska, Russia shows no intention of halting its aggression.

This underscores the need for Ukraine to secure stable and predictable funding for the coming year.

Previously, Reuters reported that Poland, under an EU program, will receive €43.7 billion to strengthen its defense capabilities within the Security Action for Europe initiative. At the same time, Ukraine is sometimes attacked by up to 700 drones in a single night.

Children living under constant threat are finally safe. Ukraine’s humanitarian program, Bring Kids Back UA, has evacuated 16 children from Russian-occupied territories.

They are now in Ukraine, receiving psychological support, restoring documents, and taking their first steps toward a peaceful life, according to Andrii Yermak, Head of the Presidential Office.

The program, initiated by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2023, aims to return all Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. To date, 19,546 children have been stolen.

Tragedies endured by the children

Among the rescued is a 15-year-old girl who escaped occupation with her aunt after her parents and older brother were sentenced on fabricated charges. Two sisters, aged 14 and 7, lost their home and belongings in a fire that completely destroyed their house.

Another 15-year-old girl stayed indoors for nearly three years, living in fear of the occupiers taking her children. A 10-year-old boy was targeted by the occupation’s “care service,” which tried to seize him from his parents.

Returning to safety and a new life

“All of them are now safe in Ukraine. Due to the Save Ukraine team and partners for helping rescue these children. We are fulfilling the President’s mission to bring all Ukrainian children home,” said Yermak.

Russian indoctrination in occupied areas

Earlier, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported that in Russian-occupied Donetsk, schools have been holding so-called “patriotism lessons” since autumn.

According to Denis Pushilin, the head of the occupation administration, Russian soldiers teach children about their “combat path,” instilling a war cult, erasing Ukrainian identity, and preparing them for future Kremlin military campaigns.

The Ukrainian partisan movement “ATESH” dealt a major blow to the Russian army’s rear lines. The underground group has carried out sabotage on a railway near Yekaterinburg, roughly 2,087 km from Ukraine, completely paralyzing the movement of trains along Russia’s strategic routes.

This hub supplied ammunition, armored vehicles, fuel, and personnel to the frontlines, factories, and depots in the north and east.

“Now, military depots are idle, dealing a blow to the Russian rear logistics,” says the group. 

Strikes at the heart of Russia’s war machine

“Our agent sabotaged the railway near Yekaterinburg by damaging relay equipment. This disrupted train traffic across all strategic directions,” the movement reports.  

Scope of destruction in the Ukrainian infrastructure

At the same time, Russia’s war against Ukraine has damaged or destroyed nearly 11,000 km of railway tracks and over 43 stations.

As of 2025, the direct infrastructure losses in Ukraine are estimated at around $170 billion, with transportation alone accounting for roughly $38.5 billion. 

Russia has suffered catastrophic losses and can no longer launch major offensives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that after the summer offensive campaign, Russian forces no longer have the resources for large-scale attacks, UNIAN reports. 

Four Russian offensive directions

“Russia selected four main directions according to all documents and intelligence data. We only didn’t know the sequence, but it happened:

• The offensive in the Sumy direction
• the Novopavlivka operation,
• the Pokrovsk operation,
• the Zaporizhzhia direction,” Zelenskyy explains.

Failure in Sumy and heavy losses

Russian forces were defeated in the Sumy direction and had to redeploy to other fronts.

“They suffered heavy losses, primarily personnel. Today, they have abandoned this direction and shifted their resources and troops elsewhere. I believe they incurred even more losses there,” Zelenskyy says.

No more large-scale offensives

Thanks to the successful actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian troops have lost enough personnel to prevent them from conducting major offensives.

“At this point, they do not have sufficient forces for mass operations,” Zelenskyy stresses, noting that details of the losses will be published in the coming days.

Ukrainian Nemesis operators destroyed three high-value Russian air defense systems in a month. The fighters, part of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), reported on the successful operation via social media, emphasizing that innovative technologies were used to strike the targets. 

Destroyed systems and their value

“We burned three enemy air defense installations worth $80–90 million,” the statement reads. 

In August, the 412th Nemesis Regiment’s soldiers took down two Tor-M2 SAM systems, a Buk-M3 launcher, and the radar of a Buk-M2 system, which is known as “chupa-chups.” 

Tor-M2 and Buk: capabilities

Tor-M2 is a Russian short-range surface-to-air missile system designed to protect military and strategic targets from aircraft, helicopters, drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles.

Its engagement range is 12–15 km, altitude up to 10 km, and targets moving at speeds up to 1,000 m/s. The system carries 16 9M338K missiles and can simultaneously engage four targets out of over 40 detected.

The Buk is also a Russian medium-range SAM system capable of destroying aerodynamic aerial targets, tactical ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.

Innovations and secret SBS technologies

“The enemy changes tactics, tries to stop us, hides but in vain. Our retaliation always reaches its target,” the defenders noted.

They added that the strike footage remains unpublished to protect their innovative solutions, but promised to release it in the future.

A Kenyan athlete ended up in Ukrainian captivity after fighting on behalf of Russia. Ukrainian soldiers from the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade captured Evans on the frontlines, where he had been serving with Russian occupiers in Kharkiv Oblast.

The athlete ended up in a Russian military camp under the guise of a “tourist trip” organized by his agent and funded by Russia, after which he was forced to sign documents in Russian and join the military.

When he realized what was happening, he tried to refuse but was threatened with execution. Nevertheless, Evans escaped and surrendered to Ukrainian forces.

How the athlete became a Russian soldier

“Evans is a track and field athlete from Kenya. His sports agent offered him and three other Kenyans a tourist trip to Saint Petersburg, funded by Russia,” reports the 57th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade named after Kostyantyn Hordiyenko.

At the end of the trip, the person accompanying the group suggested that the foreigners stay in Russia and take up work.

“By signing papers in Russian, without understanding them, he unwittingly became a Russian soldier,” adds the brigade.

Harsh training and threats of execution

“Training lasted a week, during which the Kenyan was taught how to handle an automatic rifle. His commanders and instructors did not speak English, so they would often pull or push him to make him follow orders,” Ukrainian troops said.

Evans tried to refuse service but was told he would be executed if he did not comply.

Escape and captivity

“On the way to his first combat mission, Evans escaped. He spent two days wandering through forests near Vovchansk, searching for Ukrainian soldiers to surrender to,” said the 57th Brigade.

This is how the athlete ended up safe in Ukrainian hands, becoming a direct witness to the realities on the frontline.

Skeptical note from the brigade

However, the brigade remains cautious.

“Keep in mind, this is a person who fought on the side of the enemy, so whether to trust his words and tears is left to your discretion,” the brigade states. 

Ukraine confronts one of the world’s most severe demographic crises as its fertility rate plummets to 0.8 children per woman—among the lowest globally—while deaths exceed births by nearly three to one, according to government statistics and demographic experts.

As Ukraine fights for survival, it simultaneously grapples with a shrinking population that undermines long-term military capacity, economic reconstruction, and social stability.

The crisis reflects broader European demographic trends accelerated by war, poverty, and uncertainty—factors increasingly relevant to Western nations facing population decline.

Government response meets expert skepticism

Ukraine just raised baby bonuses from 41,280 hryvnias ($1,001) to 50,000 hryvnias ($1,220), paid as a lump sum rather than monthly installments. Additional measures include 7,000 ($170) hryvnia monthly payments for unemployed pregnant women and expanded childcare support.

“One should not count on a significant increase in birth rates due to increased social payments for children,” says Iryna Ippolitova, senior researcher at the Center for Economic Strategy, noting that increased payments in 2005 and the “Baby Package” program in 2018 did not cause significant changes in birth rates.

The current payment also has much less purchasing power than the previously tried support mechanisms had. According to the media outlet Hromadske, in 2008, Ukraine paid $2,520 for the first child, $5,155 for the second, and $10,310 for the third and subsequent children.

Today’s 50,000 hryvnia payment equals only $1,220, regardless of birth order.

The math behind Ukraine’s disappearing future

Ukraine’s population has contracted from 52 million at independence in 1991 to approximately 30-35 million today. But that’s not the scary part.

The fertility crisis compounds multiple demographic pressures. Euromaidan Press report from February 2025 shows 495,000 deaths versus 176,600 births in 2024, with some frontline oblasts experiencing death-to-birth ratios exceeding 10-to-1.

Meanwhile, 5.7 million Ukrainians live abroad as refugees, according to UN estimates, with up to 800,000 being women of childbearing age. Only 40% of emigrants express certainty about returning, the UN reports.

Strategic implications for Ukraine’s future

The demographic crisis creates cascading strategic vulnerabilities that threaten Ukraine’s long-term viability:

War, economic misery, and housing costs create conditions that could affect other nations during future crises.

Why money can’t fix the baby problem

Ask a young couple in Kyiv about having children, and they’ll show you their rent receipt. A cashier spends 83% of their income on rent alone. A cook uses 57% of earnings just for housing. A barista dedicates 78% of their salary to keeping a roof overhead.

And if young people “don’t understand what tomorrow will bring, then what kind of children can we talk about?” asks Vasyl Voskoboynik, head of Ukraine’s Office of Migration Policy.

The housing crisis creates impossible mathematics. When working full-time barely covers rent, saving for a larger apartment to accommodate children becomes a fantasy. This explains why 21% of potential parents plan to have children only after the war ends—not because of physical danger but because of economic impossibility.

Having children increasingly becomes a lifestyle choice among many rather than a social expectation. Life offers alternatives—career advancement, travel, personal fulfillment—that compete with parenthood in ways previous generations never experienced.

War adds another layer of uncertainty. Even couples who planned children before February 2022 now delay decisions indefinitely. The stress, family separation, and unpredictable future create psychological barriers that 50,000 hryvnia cannot overcome.

What Ukraine teaches the West

Ukraine’s trajectory offers uncomfortable lessons for Western democracies managing their own fertility decline.

Population Europe’s research confirms that there is “no realistic prospect within the foreseeable future of the EU returning to total fertility rates of around 2 from today’s 1.5.”

The war reveals how quickly a manageable demographic decline transforms into an existential crisis. External shocks—economic collapse, social instability, military conflict—can accelerate trends that typically unfold over generations. Under the right combination of pressures, today’s gradual decline in the European population can lead to tomorrow’s rapid collapse.

This creates strategic vulnerabilities that neighbors with ill intent notice. Aging populations struggle to field large militaries, support innovation economies, or maintain social cohesion during crises. Russia itself faces severe demographic challenges, but Ukraine’s crisis demonstrates how quickly declining nations can become targets.

But the population numbers tell only half the story. As Ukraine fights for survival on military and demographic fronts simultaneously, Western democracies must consider whether their aging societies can withstand similar pressures while confronting expanding authoritarian threats facing comparable demographic stress.

On 17 September, Kyiv ratified the century-long partnership agreement between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The document was approved by 295 out of 397 Ukrainian deputies.

The agreement creates a new long-term framework

The agreement establishes a new long-term framework for bilateral cooperation in security, defense, economy, science, technology, and culture, opening new opportunities to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.

Significant boost in military support

The document provides for annual military assistance from the UK to Ukraine of at least £3.6 billion until the 2030/31 financial year, and thereafter as needed.

This includes training Ukrainian troops, supporting pilots, supplying military aviation, developing joint defense production, and participating in joint expeditionary formats such as the Joint Expeditionary Force.

Framework nature and strategic significance

“Despite its grand title and good intentions, this agreement, unfortunately, does not provide security guarantees and is of a framework nature. Nevertheless, it is an important document aimed at strengthening strategic partnership with the UK,” said MP Iryna Herashchenko of the European Solidarity party.

New horizons of cooperation

Beyond the military sphere, the agreement opens prospects for scientific and technological projects, economic partnership, and cultural exchange, cementing Ukraine and the UK as strategic allies for decades to come.

The Pentagon confirmed on 16 September that American military officials observed the “Zapad-2025” joint exercises between Russia and Belarus, marking the first such attendance since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Two US defense attachés attended the “Zapad-2025” drills on 15 September as part of a distinguished visitor program, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated, Reuters reports. The last time this happened in 2021 before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The US embassy in Minsk had received an invitation to the exercises, which the American side accepted following what Parnell described as “recent productive bilateral engagements between our countries.”

“Attending exercise DV days is a common practice between militaries, and the US Defense Attache is part of a larger group of international military attendees,” Parnell said.

US relations with Belarus 

The military engagement represents part of broader diplomatic developments between Washington and Minsk under the Trump administration. Last week, Trump lifted sanctions on Belarus national airline Belavia after Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko agreed to release 52 prisoners, including journalists and political opponents.

Western analysts view the warming ties as either an attempt to distance Belarus from Russia or to leverage Minsk’s close relationship with Moscow in potential Ukraine war negotiations, though such strategies are considered unlikely to succeed.

Belarus “surprised” by US visit

Reuters identified one of the American officers as Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Bryan Shoupe. Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin personally greeted the US officials, with the officers speaking Russian and thanking him for the invitation.

According to Reuters, Khrenin called the American visit a “surprise” and told the officers: “We will show you everything that interests you. Whatever you want. You can go there and look, talk to people.”

Exercises trigger caution from neighboring NATO countries

Previously, Belarus reported that its forces trained with Russia’s Oreshnik nuclear ballistic missile system during the Zapad 2025 exercises, marking the first known training with the weapon outside Russia. This hypersonic missile system was first used by Russia against Ukraine in November 2024.

The military exercises also triggered security measures across the region. Poland closed its border with Belarus entirely on 11 September, with officials indicating the closure would not automatically end with the exercises’ conclusion.

Last week, Russian drones violated Poland’s airspace from Belarus territory, prompting the Polish forces to shoot them down.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia and Belarus are conducting six “Zapad-2025” military exercises this fall that simulate attacks on Poland rather than defensive operations.

Latvia’s parliament also voted to seal borders with both Russia and Belarus during the maneuvers, while Finland warned that Russia’s military activities could take “unexpected turns.”