Russia’s “shadow fleet” grows again, helping the Kremlin bypass sanctions. The number of Moscow’s oil tankers continues to expand, ensuring deliveries of Russian oil despite Western sanctions, Reuters reports. 

The Russian “shadow fleet” consists of grey-market tankers that evade international sanctions. These tankers often sail with transponders turned off, without proper insurance, and conceal their identities. They channel Russian oil exports to China, India, and Global South countries. 

About 70% of the shadow fleet that transports Russian oil passes through the Baltic Sea.

Shadow fleet keeps Russia’s oil exports afloat

Saad Rahim, chief economist at major trading house Trafigura, says that these tankers have become a key instrument in the Kremlin’s hands. These vessels allow Moscow to maintain revenues from crude oil sales despite Western efforts to restrict exports.

“As there are more sanctions and restrictions, the size of the (shadow fleet) has grown even larger,” Rahim emphasized.

New vessels replace sanctioned ones

According to the expert, in 2025 the growth of the “shadow fleet” has slowed somewhat, but it continues to expand. Often, new tankers replace those that end up on the “blacklist.” This enables Russia to keep its export channels open and avoid significant losses from sanctions.

The US cuts production, price steady at $60

Rahim also stressed that US tariffs have so far had limited impact on the global economy and fuel demand. American oil companies base their budgets on a $60 per barrel price, which is considered the break-even level. At the same time, the number of oil rigs in the country is declining, while production has stabilized at the current level.

In the early hours of 7 September 2025, Ukrainian forces launched a coordinated series of deep strikes on Russian territory, targeting two of the most strategically important fuel infrastructure sites — the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai and the 8-N pipeline pumping station near the village of Naitopovichi in Bryansk Oblast.

Strategic Druzhba pipeline hub hit for second time

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a precision drone strike targeted the 8-N linear production dispatching station (LPDS) near Naitopovichi village located in Unecha District, Bryansk Oblast. The site is linked to Russia’s Druzhba — a pipeline network used to export oil.

The Naitopovichi-based station is part of the “Steel Horse” mainline pipeline complex, with a pumping capacity of 10.5 million tons per year.

The Ukrainian military described the facility as having “strategic importance for the transportation of oil products for the Russian occupation army.” They reported multiple direct hits, followed by fires in the area of the pumping station and tank park.

Commander of the Armed Forces’ Drone Systems, Robert Brovdi (“Madyar”), also confirmed the strike, noting that the 8-N facility plays a key role in transferring petroleum products from Belarus’s Mozyr and Novopolotsk refineries into Russia.

Brovdi shared aerial footage showing a fire at the facility, and emphasized that the strike was part of a broader campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and hinted at more operations to come: “To be continued…”

This marks the second confirmed Ukrainian strike on the 8-N station. On 29 August, Ukrainian forces had already attacked the same facility. As Russian news Telegram channel Astra reported at the time, the previous strike had resulted in the total destruction of the station’s pump house — a critical component without which oil cannot be transported.

Previous strikes on Russian oil pumping stations temporarily disrupted Russian pipeline oil exports, but the damaged facilities later resumed operations.

Ilsky oil refinery set ablaze — again

On the same night, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Seversky District, Krasnodar Krai, the General Staff confirmed. Ilsky is located around 30 kilometers from Krasnodar.

Astra cited the Krasnodar regional operational headquarters, reporting that “drone debris fell on the territory of the Ilsky refinery” — the standard Russian official wording for all successful Ukrainian attacks. The strike caused one of the refinery’s technological installations to catch fire, according to the report. Officials claimed that the fire, which allegedly covered only several square meters, was quickly extinguished and that there were no casualties. Emergency response and special services were deployed, and refinery personnel were evacuated to shelters.

Footage of the fire at the refinery grounds, published online by Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+, showed visible flames in the industrial area definitely more than “several square meters” in size.

This was not the first time Ukrainian drones targeted the Ilsky refinery. Earlier strikes took place in February and July this year, as well as in 2023 and 2024. Previous operations have triggered significant fires, including a major one in February. According to Militarnyi and Suspilne, the July attack was reportedly conducted by Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR).

Ukrainian forces also strike Russian troop sites in Kursk Oblast

In addition to the fuel infrastructure strikes, Ukrainian forces confirmed hits on Russian military personnel sites and logistics warehouses in Kursk Oblast. The General Staff reported “successful hits” on locations housing Russian troops and storing matériel.

The Ukrainian military said these attacks are part of a larger strategy “to reduce the offensive potential of the Russian occupiers and complicate the delivery of fuel and ammunition to the enemy’s military units.”

Russia claims 69 drones shot down

In response to the overnight strikes, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its air defenses had intercepted and destroyed 69 Ukrainian drones over various regions, including 21 over Krasnodar Krai, 13 over Voronezh Oblast, and others in Astrakhan, Belgorod, Volgograd, and Kursk oblasts, as well as Crimea.

New Delhi is taking a step in defiance of American demands. Bloomberg reports that India has officially confirmed that it will continue buying Russian oil despite the 50% US tariffs on Indian goods.

In doing so, New Delhi ignored US President Donald Trump’s demand to stop importing Russian oil, prompting renewed public criticism from him. 

“Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!” Trump wrote in a social media post, adding a photo of the three leaders together at Xi Jinping’s summit in China.

Volumes of Russian oil declining

Meanwhile, Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, has reported that Russian oil shipments to India fell from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to 1.1 million in September 2025.

“Delhi is demanding additional discounts and payments in non-convertible rupees. US tariffs on Indian goods for Russian oil have already reached 50%,” he says. 

He adds that the US and EU sanctions have limited Moscow’s oil trade, and now India and China are dictating the terms.

China increases purchases on its terms

At the same time, Kovalenko reveals that China has increased its purchases of Russian oil, from 50,000 barrels in August to 420,000 barrels in September, but also only under conditions of significant discounts, which are $5–6 below Brent. 

Western sanctions against Russia are working and are already hitting the aggressor’s economy hard, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, which cited declines in key sectors. At the same time, the Kremlin is trying to offset its losses by looting temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands.

Sanctions squeeze the Russian economy

Business activity in Russia continues to fall. The manufacturing PMI, calculated by S&P Global, dropped to 48.7 in August out of 100 points, marking the third consecutive month in contraction territory.

Sunflower oil production in Russia also fell by 11% year-on-year. The coal sector is even worse off: 23 enterprises have halted operations due to the crisis, while 129 mines and open-pit sites, responsible for up to 85% of the country’s coal output, are seeking government support.

Coal and grain from occupied territories

Despite the crisis, Russia is trying to keep its economy afloat by plundering Ukrainian lands. New images from temporarily occupied Mariupol have shown how Russian forces are loading ships with stolen grain and coal. 

“Mariupol port. Two ships are being loaded at the same time… We expect the coal ship to head to the port of Temryuk for export clearance to Algeria, and the bulk carrier with grain to go to Egypt. Looting has predictably resumed,” reported Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of Occupation.

Stolen grain becomes the Kremlin’s business

According to the Center for National Resistance, Russia has turned stolen Ukrainian grain into a global business. Wheat that Moscow claims as “Russian” is purchased by 70 countries, including Egypt, Türkiye, and Iran. 

The White House has urged European countries to follow the US and impose restrictive measures on India for its purchases of Russian oil, which fund the war in Ukraine, India Today reports. 

US tariffs on Indian goods

In August 2025, the US raised tariffs on goods from India up to 50%, criticizing New Delhi for supporting Russia’s economic machinery. At the same time, Washington has not imposed sanctions on China, the main sponsor of the war and Moscow’s key economic partner.

A Russian drone caught filming its own camera test in a Chinese factory before being shot down in Ukraine

Europe continues to buy Russian energy

India has criticized the US decision, pointing out double standards: Europe itself continues to purchase oil from Russia. EU–Russia trade in 2024 reached €67.5 billion in goods and €17.2 billion in services. Europe also imported a record 16.5 million tons of Russian LNG, the highest number since 2022.

Sanctions do not cover key Russian exports

Many critical Russian exports remain unrestricted, including palladium for the US automotive industry, uranium for nuclear power plants, fertilizers, chemicals, metals, and equipment.

Sources report that Trump also pressured India to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. After being rejected, he responded with tariffs. This has prompted India to strengthen its ties with China and reinforced so-called anti-American cooperation among the so-called “axis of upheaval” countries.

Today, the US administration seeks to have Europe join in sanction pressure on New Delhi if India does not stop buying Russian oil.

Instead of peace: parades, missiles, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in China on a four-day visit, RBC reports. 

He was invited by Xi Jinping to a military parade marking the anniversary of the end of World War II. This comes just as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop the war is expiring.

Trump’s deadline and Russia’s new attacks

The American president gave Putin two weeks to decide on negotiations.

SCO Summit in China: Who’s attending?

Beyond the parade, Putin will participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, scheduled from 31 August to 1 September in Tianjin. The SCO includes Russia, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.

More than 20 world leaders are expected. The Kremlin dictator plans to meet with Xi Jinping, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A Russian drone caught filming its own camera test in a Chinese factory before being shot down in Ukraine

India between China and the US

Earlier, Trump imposed tariffs on India over its imports of Russian oil, which fuels Moscow’s war machine. This sparked outrage in Delhi, which pointed out that Europe continues buying Russian oil without facing sanctions.

According to The New York Times, Trump also pressured India to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. After Delhi refused, he retaliated with tariffs.

Against this backdrop, India may strengthen cooperation with Russia and China, both key players in the oil and gas market, and part of the “axis of upheaval”, the growing anti-American collaboration between the nations. 

The recent Ukrainian drone strikes have forced Russia’s Ust-Luga oil export terminal on the Baltic Sea coast to cut operations by half for September, Reuters reports. The disruption follows earlier drone attacks on pipeline infrastructure, and has triggered emergency rerouting of crude exports to other ports.

Damage affects flows to key terminal

Two industry sources told Reuters that Ust-Luga will operate at about 350,000 barrels per day—roughly half its normal capacity. The slowdown comes after Ukrainian drone strikes earlier in August targeted the Unecha pumping station in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. Unecha is a crucial node in the pipeline system that feeds Ust-Luga and is also linked to the Druzhba pipeline.

The drone attacks have affected crude flows not only to Ust-Luga but also through the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Belarus, Slovakia, and Hungary. Slovakia said on 28 August that initial supplies via the Druzhba line had resumed in test mode.

Crude redirected as repair work begins

The Reuters sources did not clarify which pipeline was damaged but said that repair work was underway. However, there is no clear timeline for when full capacity at Ust-Luga will be restored. To limit export losses, oil volumes are being redirected to Russia’s Primorsk and Novorossiisk ports.

Hungary has banned a Ukrainian commander from entering the country and the Schengen zone after strikes on the Druzhba oil pipeline. The move was announced by Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó in a Facebook video on 28 August.

Hungary frames attacks against the pipeline in Russia as a threat to its sovereignty

In his FB video, Szijjártó said Ukraine had launched several strikes against the Druzhba oil pipeline, which he called vital for his country’s energy supply, adding that Hungary considers “every single attack against our energy security as an attack committed against our sovereignty.“

“Without the Druzhba pipeline, Hungary cannot be supplied with oil,” he claimed, adding, “Ukraine knows this precisely. Ukraine is fully aware that the pipeline is indispensable for Hungary’s secure energy supply.”

The minister stated that the strikes harmed Hungary and Slovakia more than Russia, without addressing why, in the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hungary remains fully dependent on Russian oil despite available alternatives, or that Hungary’s payments for this oil in effect bankroll Moscow’s war machine against Ukraine.

“Ukraine knows very well that the attacks against the Druzhba oil pipeline harm Hungary and, of course, Slovakia much more than Russia,” Szijjártó said.

He described the latest strike as “extremely serious,” adding that “restoration work took so long that we almost had to use strategic, or emergency, reserves.”

Ban on Ukrainian commander

Szijjártó announced that Hungary’s response would be to bar the commander of the Ukrainian unit behind the strike.

“We have therefore made the decision that the commander of the military unit which carried out the most recent extremely serious attacks against the Druzhba oil pipeline will be banned from Hungary and from the entire Schengen area,” he said. “This Ukrainian citizen will not be able to enter Hungary or the Schengen zone for the coming years.”

The Hungarian Prime Minister did not name the Ukrainian military officer targeted by the ban. The most likely candidate is Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces and an ethnic Hungarian.

He had previously claimed responsibility for the latest strike on the Druzhba pipeline, adding the 1956 Hungarian resistance slogan to his post: “Ruszkik haza!” (“Russians, go home!”).

Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Druzhba’s pumping stations on 19 and 21 August.

The European Union is developing new sanctions to increase pressure on Russia’s weak war economy, Politico reports. However, the upcoming measures will not target Russian energy sales, which continue to finance Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

Focus on “shadow fleet” and sanctions evasion

European diplomats say the 19th package, expected next month, will target ships of the “shadow fleet” and companies helping Russia bypass existing sanctions.

Secondary sanctions against firms or countries doing business with Moscow could have the greatest impact, but their effectiveness will depend on US cooperation.

US pressure and Trump’s role

Experts note that Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks with US President Donald Trump in Alaska after the US imposed high tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. Next steps could include tighter restrictions on Russia-China trade. Trump hinted at possible “massive sanctions or tariffs” if Moscow does not support peace negotiations.

EU constraints and upcoming summit

“We don’t expect there will be much room for any material Russian oil sanctions in the EU’s 19th sanctions package,” said ICIS analyst Ajay Parmar.

 EU foreign ministers will meet at an informal summit later this week to discuss additional economic measures. While Slovakia and Hungary oppose expanding sanctions, diplomats are confident a unified stance can be achieved.

Ukraine has disabled 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity through a wave of recent drone strikes targeting key infrastructure, Reuters reports. The attacks, carried out over the past month, have disrupted fuel processing, sparked gasoline shortages, and hit the core of Moscow’s war economy as Washington seeks to broker a peace deal.

Ukraine strikes 10 refineries, targets export terminals

Reuters calculated that Ukraine’s strikes have taken out 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian oil refining capacity. The drones targeted 10 plants, including Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery and Rosneft’s facility in Ryazan. Other damaged refineries include those in Rostov, Samara, Saratov, and Krasnodar regions.

In addition to oil refineries, Ukrainian drones attacked the Druzhba pipeline and Novatek’s Ust-Luga export terminal and gas processing complex on the Baltic Sea. The fire at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov Oblast was still burning as of 25 August, days after being struck by drones.

The Syzran refinery in Samara Oblast was critically affected — key equipment was destroyed, rendering it unable to function. Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai and the facility in Novokuybyshevsk were also hit.

Fuel shortages hit occupied territories and Russia’s south and far east

Fuel shortages followed in parts of Russian-occupied Ukraine, southern Russia, and the Russian Far East. Moscow had already banned gasoline exports in July due to growing domestic demand.

According to Sergei Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, the damaged plants have lost only part of their output, but even limited disruptions can impact supply. He previously worked for Gazprom Neft.

Russia depends on oil and gas for a quarter of its budget revenues. This year, it raised defense spending by 25%, reaching Cold War–era levels. Despite sanctions, Moscow continues large-scale weapons production. Still, economic growth has slowed, causing concern in the Kremlin.

Ukrainian intelligence reports fuel shortages now reach Russia’s Pacific territories, forcing Moscow to seek emergency supplies from Belarus.

The reported restrictions from Crimea to the Pacific islands demonstrate how Ukraine’s systematic refinery strikes are creating supply disruptions far from front lines, potentially affecting both military logistics and civilian mobility.

Russia has imposed strict 10-liter fuel rationing on civilians in the remote Kuril Islands while urgently purchasing petroleum from Belarus to address spreading domestic shortages, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported on 21 August.

Since January, oil refineries have been the target of 42% of Ukrainian long-range strikes, making them the single most-hit category. Russian media, including The Moscow Times, have separately confirmed gasoline prices reaching record highs after refinery attacks.

Intelligence claims Belarus supplying emergency fuel

According to the Ukrainian intelligence report, Russian companies’ interest in Belarusian petroleum products “rose sharply” in the second half of August, citing the Belarusian state company Belneftekhim. The assessment claims Belarusian refineries are rapidly increasing supplies to meet Russian demand.

“Russian companies are urgently buying fuel from Belarus,” the Foreign Intelligence Service stated, though the scale and verification of these purchases could not be independently confirmed.

According to the intelligence assessment, the fuel crisis has spread from occupied Crimea, eastward through Russia’s Far Eastern regions of Transbaikalia and Primorye, ultimately reaching the remote Kuril Islands near Japan. 

Oil refinery strikes create price surge

Russian media have documented specific price increases from the strikes. The Moscow Times reported that wholesale gasoline prices reached historic highs after Ukrainian strikes on major refineries, with AI-92 gasoline jumping 38% and AI-95 nearly 49% since the start of 2025.

Confirmed impacts from open sources:

• Three major refineries knocked offline in August (Ukrainian strikes target 13.5% of refining capacity)
• Russian fuel prices surge 40-50% since start of year reaching historic records
• Russia imposed gasoline export bans with extensions under consideration
• Wholesale fuel prices trigger crisis forcing domestic market interventions

Recent verified strikes include multiple hits on the Ryazan refinery, which produces aviation fuel for Russian military aircraft, and the Volgograd facility, which processes over 14 million tons annually.

Chinese refineries have boosted their purchases of flagship Russian crude, taking advantage of discounted cargoes that India refused, while Washington is stepping up trade tariffs against New Delhi, Bloomberg reports. 

India is one of Russia’s main economic partners, after China. Moscow continues to profit from oil supplies to India, accounting for nearly 35% of the country’s imports. Moscow’s energy exports remain its leading source of revenues, which it uses to fund its war against Ukraine.

According to Kpler, in August, Urals crude shipments from the Baltic and Black Sea ports to China averaged nearly 75,000 barrels per day. This is almost twice the year-to-date average of 40,000 barrels per day. At the same time, exports to India fell to 400,000 barrels per day from an average of 1.18 million barrels per day.

Analysts note that Chinese refineries are currently in a favorable position to continue buying Russian oil, unlike their Indian counterparts.

China buying Urals for storage

Data from Kpler and Energy Aspects suggest Chinese refineries have likely purchased 10–15 shipments of Urals for delivery in October–November.

Experts predict that Chinese buyers could acquire more cargoes in the coming days if prices remain attractive.

At present, at least two Urals tankers are idling off the Chinese coast, with several more expected to arrive in the coming weeks. Indian refiners are staying on the sidelines.

Without Chinese purchases, Russian crude may have to be sold at a discount to attract new buyers.

Drones paralyze key refineries

• On 2 August, a UAV strike stopped Novokuibyshevsk Refinery of Rosneft with a capacity of 8.3 million tons per year.
• On 11 August, the Saratov Refinery, producing 5.8 million tons of oil was hit.
• On 15 August, drones paralyzed Volgograd Refinery of Lukoil, generating 14.8 million tons of oil and Samara Refinery of Rosneft, which brings 8.5 million tons of oil.

Sanctions complicate repairs

“For example, a four-month repair was planned, but some equipment was delayed or not delivered,” he said.

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Gasoline prices hit record highs

How is Russia circumventing sanctions? By sea. Ukrainian intelligence has revealed details of operations involving 42 ships engaged in transporting sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil, stolen Ukrainian grain and coal, as well as bunkering activities of the so-called “shadow fleet.”

Floating depots and false flags

Among the identified vessels is a floating storage unit of Russia’s Lukoil company in the Caspian Sea, used for transferring oil to “shadow fleet” tankers. Why does this matter? Under sanction and diplomatic pressure, many countries refuse to register such ships. Moscow responds with fraud: false flags, fake maritime registries, and falsified documents.

According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), over 300 ships worldwide currently sail under fake flags and fraudulent documentation, creating global risks for maritime trade and shipping safety.

War&Sanctions reveals the “shadow fleet”

The new “Ships” section on Ukraine’s War&Sanctions portal led by the intelligence agency displays over 100 Russian and Iranian tankers operating under fake flags of Panama, Malawi, Comoros, Guinea, and Palau.

HUR explains that all such vessels should be fully banned from servicing, port calls, and international straits. Flag states and the IMO must exercise strict and timely control.

More than just numbers

Overall, the portal now contains data on over 1,000 ships and 155 captains involved in transporting weapons and stolen products from temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. This is not mere statistics — each vessel and captain reflects a complex network of Moscow and Tehran’s sanction-evading schemes.

The War&Sanctions portal enables monitoring of these schemes and provides global regulators with concrete data for action against violators. 

A massive fire broke out at the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd on 16 August, two days after Ukrainian drones hit the facility and caused heavy damage. The fire may have started during repair works, but the cause remains unclear.

During the day on 16 August, a thick black column of smoke rose over the refinery. Around the same time, air traffic at Volgograd airport shut down under temporary restrictions, and authorities declared a citywide air raid alert.

The full circumstances remain unknown.

Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka is the largest oil product producer in Russia’s Southern Federal District and the seventh most powerful refinery in the country. Its design capacity stands at 14.8 million tons of crude oil per year.

“Planned discharge,” but emergency vehicles flood the area

Some channels claimed the smoke came from a “planned discharge of petroleum products” related to tank repair preparations. But locals saw fire trucks and ambulances rushing toward the plant. Readers openly mocked the official line.

Astra quoted messages like, “So the ambulances are flying there because of a planned discharge too?” and “And the fire trucks are heading there as part of the plan, or were they not warned?”

Ukrainian drones shut the refinery down on 14 August

Overnight on 14 August, Ukrainian strike drones hit the refinery and caused a massive fire. Astra reported that the plant suspended operations due to the damage. 

Explore further

Ukraine’s drones turn Volgograd night into firestorm — Lukoil’s biggest refinery ablaze after fuel spill ignites

Earlier, the Ukrainian Army’s General Staff reported that 42% of Ukrainian deep drone strikes inside Russia this year have targeted oil refineries. 

Russia's crude oil shipments have dropped to their lowest level since February, as refinery processing outpaces production growth and trims available export volumes, Bloomberg reported on July 8.

Russia has used its revenues from energy exports to finance the war in Ukraine.

Seaborne crude flows averaged 3.12 million barrels a day over the four weeks to July 6, a 3% decline from the previous period ending June 29, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the lowest level recorded since the four-week period ending Feb. 23.

The gross value of Moscow's oil exports rose by about $100 million, or 8%, to $1.36 billion for the week ending July 6, Bloomberg said. That increase was due to higher volume, although average export prices declined for a second consecutive week.

Most of Russia's oil continues to head to Asia. Shipments to the region averaged 2.73 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the previous month. Flows to Turkey fell to 370,000 barrels a day, and shipments to Syria held steady at 25,000 barrels a day.

The European Union is seeking to tighten sanctions on Russia. Ambassadors have yet to approve the EU's 18th sanctions package due to opposition from Hungary and Slovakia. The bloc failed to adopt the new package on June 27.

The new package includes restrictions targeting Russia's energy and banking sectors, as well as transactions linked to the Nord Stream gas pipeline.

Death of top Russian oil executive fuels fresh scrutiny of elite’s ‘window falls’

The unexplained death of a top Russian oil executive on July 4 is fueling renewed scrutiny over the rising number of high-profile Russian officials and businessmen who have died under mysterious circumstances, specifically, have fallen out of windows. Andrei Badalov, vice president of Transneft, Russia’s largest state-controlled pipeline transport company,

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Russia's crude oil production in June fell below its agreed-upon OPEC+ target, according to individuals familiar with the data interviwed by Bloomberg.

Russian producers reportedly pumped 9.022 million barrels per day last month, a figure 28,000 barrels per day below the required level, including compensation cuts. This marks the largest gap between Russia's output and its monthly quota this year, based on Bloomberg's calculations.

Historically, Russia, which co-leads the OPEC+ alliance with Saudi Arabia, has faced criticism for poor compliance with production quotas. However, the nation has shown improved adherence for most of 2025, often pumping below its required levels, according to analysis of Russian data. This increased focus on production discipline follows earlier critiques from Riyadh.

Under the terms of the OPEC+ agreement, Russia's daily production quota for June had increased by 78,000 barrels to 9.161 million barrels. However, Moscow had also committed to a 111,000 barrel-a-day compensation cut for the month, bringing its actual output target to 9.050 million barrels per day.

On July 5, eight OPEC+ nations collectively agreed to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to capitalize on strong summer consumption. Analysts suggest these additional barrels may be quickly absorbed but could contribute to a crude surplus later in the year.

Independent verification of Russia's oil output data has become challenging since Moscow classified official figures after Western sanctions targeting the nation's energy industry following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, market watchers now largely rely on indicators such as seaborne exports and domestic refinery runs to track trends in Russia's oil production.

Russia striking NATO while China invades Taiwan ‘plausible’ scenario, experts say

If Beijing moves against Taiwan, NATO might soon find itself in a two-front war with China and Russia — or so the alliance’s secretary general believes. “If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin… and telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,’” Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a July 5 interview with the New

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Russia's economy, which defied initial sanctions and saw growth propelled by massive military spending and robust oil exports, is now showing significant signs of a downturn.

Recent economic indicators are flashing red, with manufacturing activity declining, consumer spending tightening, and inflation remaining stubbornly high, straining the national budget, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on July 4.

Russian officials are openly acknowledging the risks of a recession. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned last month that Russia was on the "verge of a recession," while Finance Minister Anton Siluanov described the situation as a "perfect storm." Companies, from agricultural machinery producers to furniture makers, are reducing output. The central bank announced on July 3 it would debate cutting its benchmark interest rate later this month, following a reduction in June.

While analysts suggest this economic sputtering is unlikely to immediately alter President Vladimir Putin’s war objectives—as his focus on "neutering Ukraine" overrides broader economic concerns—it exposes the limits of his war economy.

The slowdown indicates that Western sanctions, though not a knockout blow, are increasingly taking a toll. If sanctions intensify further or global oil prices fall, Russia’s economy could face more severe instability. This downturn undermines Putin's strategic bet that Russia can financially outlast Ukraine and its Western allies, suggesting Moscow may struggle to finance the war indefinitely.

Death of top Russian oil executive fuels fresh scrutiny of elite’s ‘window falls’

The unexplained death of a top Russian oil executive on July 4 is fueling renewed scrutiny over the rising number of high-profile Russian officials and businessmen who have died under mysterious circumstances, specifically, have fallen out of windows. Andrei Badalov, vice president of Transneft, Russia’s largest state-controlled pipeline transport company,

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Experts warn that Russia's economic growth model, overly reliant on military spending, is unsustainable and necessitates a contraction of civilian economic capacities to free up workers for the war machine, which is not a viable long-term strategy. Putin recently dismissed suggestions that the war is stifling the economy, echoing Mark Twain by stating reports of its death "are greatly exaggerated." However, he also cautioned that a recession or stagflation "should not be allowed under any circumstances."

After a brief recession in 2022, military spending, which accounts for over 6% of gross domestic product this year (the highest since Soviet times) and approximately 40% of total government spending, had propped up Russia’s economy and blunted the impact of Western sanctions. Russia’s ability to reroute oil exports to China and Beijing’s support with electronics and machinery provided additional economic stimulus. This created an economic paradox: the most sanctioned major economy was, for a period, growing faster than many advanced economies.

However, this military spending "sugar rush" fueled runaway inflation, compelling the central bank to raise interest rates to a record 21% to try and tame it. Higher interest rates increased borrowing costs for businesses, curbing investment, expansion plans, and squeezing profits. The economic comedown has already begun.

Official data shows Russian GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, down significantly from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024. S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index indicated Russia’s manufacturing sector contracted at its sharpest rate in over three years in June, and new car sales dropped nearly 30% year-over-year in June.

Businesses across Russia are feeling the effects, according to the WSJ. Rostselmash, the country’s largest producer of agricultural machinery, announced in May it would cut production and investment, and pull forward mandatory annual leave for its 15,000 employees due to a lack of demand. In Siberia, electricity grid operator Rosseti Sibir stated it was on the verge of bankruptcy due to high debt, halting investments and proposing tariff hikes for industrial users.

While some analysts argue the Russian banking system remains stable, others warn of increasing instability. A recent report by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted risks from a government decision to control war-related lending at major Russian banks. The state could direct banks to offer preferential loans, potentially forcing the government to absorb losses if high interest rates prevent companies from meeting obligations.

The Moscow-based Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting also assessed in May that the risk of a protracted systemic banking crisis in 2026 was "moderate" and growing.

These economic challenges intensify pressure on the Kremlin by reducing its financial capacity to fund its war in Ukraine. The government has operated with a budget deficit throughout the war and projects this will continue for at least two more years. This fiscal strain could provide an opening for Western nations to implement more powerful sanctions.

Falling oil prices present another significant risk for Russia, as energy sales account for about a third of its budget revenues. The price of Russian crude has consistently remained below the level assumed in this year’s budget, and Russia’s oil-and-gas revenue in June fell to its lowest level since January 2023, according to Finance Ministry data.

Trump says Putin ‘wants to keep killing people,’ signals US may send Patriots to Ukraine

“It just seems like he wants to go all the way and just keep killing people. It’s not good,” U.S. President Donald Trump said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Iran is reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would spike global oil prices and give a significant boost to the Russian economy and its war machine in Ukraine.

Reuters reported on July 1 that Iran loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf last month, citing two U.S. officials, who said the preparations had been detected after Israel launched its "preemptive" attack against Iran on June 13.

Amid the conflict with Israel which has currently settled into an uneasy ceasefire, Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz as a means of deterrence.

If the Strait were mined, Iran could block one-fifth of global oil demand and spike world energy prices — a boon for Russia's oil-dependent economy.

"Any disruption to Gulf supplies would push up global crude prices. Prices for Russian crude would rise in line," John Gawthrop, Argus Eurasia Energy editor, told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia’s energy sector made up 35-40% of its budget revenues pre-full-scale invasion and is powering its war machine.

Western sanctions on Russian energy and the G7’s Russian oil price cap of $60 per barrel have hampered its profits, with Russia losing more than $150 billion over the last three years, but have yet to deal a crippling blow.

The conflict between Israel and Iran caused a spike in prices — Brent crude, the global benchmark, on June 13 jumped from $69.36 to $75 per barrel, a surge that looked like it could grant Russia's economy a reprieve.

Until the Israeli attacks, the future for Russian crude wasn’t looking so bright. Europe was planning its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia's energy sector, and the G7 was pushing for a $45 price cap. Hungary and Slovakia have since blocked the sanctions package.

Prices have since settled along with the conflict and on July 2 Brent crude was $67.50, but if Iran does go ahead with mining the Strait of Hormuz, blocking one-fifth of global oil demand, another surge would follow.

This would also mean Iran blocks its own oil exports too, so it would only be a last resort from Tehran, David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, a market analyst group, told the Kyiv Independent last month.

Arrests, raids, beaten and bloodied suspects — how Russia-Azerbaijan relations have unravelled

Deaths in custody, media offices raided, and beaten and bloodied suspects paraded in court — relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, once considered close, have sharply deteriorated in recent days amid a series of high-profile incidents. The latest tensions erupted over the weekend when Russian law enforcement officers detained over 50 Azerbaijani

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Ukrainian drones struck the Saratovorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast, causing damage to the facility, Ukraine's General Staff reported on July 1.

"An important facility has been hit," the General Staff said via its official Telegram channel.

The Saratovorgsintez refinery and chemical plant, owned by Russian energy giant Lukoil, is located nearly 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukraine's border in the city of Saratov. The city hosts multiple strategic military and industrial sites.

The refinery was targeted to "reduce the enemy's offensive capabilities," the General Staff wrote.

"The occupiers use the capacity of this refinery to supply fuel and lubricants to Russian military units involved in the armed aggression against Ukraine."

The attack was a joint operation carried out by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) and other military units, the General Staff said. A fire broke out at the site of the attack and damage to the refinery's technological installations has been confirmed. The full consequences of the strike are still being investigated.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

The report is the latest in a series of announcements on July 1 about successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets. Earlier in the day, HUR released footage of Ukraine's UJ-26 drones, commonly known as Bober (Beavers), targeting high-value Russian air defenses and a fighter jet in occupied Crimea.

A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian military plant in the city of Izhevsk, over 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) from the front lines.

Ukraine also hit a Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, according to the General Staff.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km from border, SBU source says

Key developments on July 1: * ‘With surgical precision’ — Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km away, SBU source says * Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills brigade commander, injures 30 people, Zelensky says * Ukrainian forces hit Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, General Staff says * Zelensky signs ratification of

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Editor's note: The article was updated with a statement from Ukraine's military intelligence agency.

A tanker carrying 1 million barrels of oil experienced an explosion near Libya, its operator, TMS Tankers, said on June 30. The vessel, Vilamoura, is now being towed to Greece, where the extent of the damage will be assessed upon arrival.

The blast caused the engine room to flood due to water intake, though the cause of the explosion remains unclear, according to a company spokesperson.

The spokesperson confirmed that the crew is safe and no pollution has been reported.

The explosion occurred on June 27 as the vessel was departing the Libyan port of Zuwetina, some 150 kilometers (90 miles) northeast of Libyan territorial waters, Ukraine's military intelligence reported.

The incident comes amid a series of unexplained blasts targeting oil tankers that had previously visited Russian ports. In response, shipowners have started inspecting their vessels for mines using divers and underwater drones.

Vilamoura had visited Russian oil terminals twice since April, loading Kazakh-origin crude rather than Russian oil. According to Bloomberg vessel-tracking data, the tanker called at the Russian port of Ust-Luga in early April and at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk in May. Both terminals primarily handle Kazakh crude exports.

Maritime risk consultancy Vanguard Tech reported that four other vessels have been damaged by explosions since the beginning of the year. Each had recently docked at Russian ports, the firm said.

Ukraine has targeted Russian energy assets throughout the full-scale invasion, including a drone strike in February on the CPC pipeline, a route responsible for moving roughly 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports.

Russia-Iran alliance wavers as Tehran suffers major blows

Tehran, Russia’s main ally in the Middle East, has been dealt a heavy blow as Israel dismantled its network of proxies and then struck targets in Iran. The recent Iranian-Israeli war, which ended with a ceasefire on June 24, showed that the regional balance of power has shifted in Israel’s favor. This could have a major impact on Russian-Iranian relations as Moscow will have to recalibrate its approach to the region. Russian-Iranian cooperation is likely to continue but Iran’s ability to help

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

Around 50% of Americans support sanctions against countries that purchase Russian oil and gas, according to the results of a YouGov poll published on June 27.

A bipartisan sanctions bill in the U.S. Senate aims to slap 500% tariffs on imports from countries that continue to purchase Russian energy products. U.S. President Donald Trump has not backed the measure and a vote on the bill has reportedly been postponed.

In a YouGov survey of adult U.S. citizens conducted June 12-16, 24% said they "strongly support" sanctioning Russian energy buyers while 25% said they "somewhat support" secondary sanctions against these countries.

Like the Senate bill, support for secondary sanctions among respondents was bipartisan. Of "strong supporters," 26% indentified as Democrats while 27% were Republicans.

More Republicans than Democrats said they favored the specific 500% tariff penalty proposed by legislators. While 29% of respondents who "strongly supported" the measure were Democrats, 41% were Republicans. Only 32% of survey respondents overall said they supported the 500% tariff.

The 500% tariff has been championed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally and co-author of the sanctions bill alongside Democrat Richard Blumenthal. Along with tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, the bill would also slap "bone-crushing" new sanctions against Russia, according to Graham.

A majority of Americans support increasing or maintaining U.S. sanctions against Russia, the survey found. Here the division along party lines is stark, with 59% of those in favor of increasing sanctions on Moscow identifying as Democrats and only 37% identifying as Republicans.

The poll also showed that about 50% of Americans oppose cutting military aid to Ukraine. According to YouGov, 26% of U.S. adults are in favor of increasing military aid while 23% believe Washington should maintain its current levels of support.

The results illustrate the contrast between the prevailing views of the American public and the policies of the Trump administration. Trump has repeatedly undercut the Senate sanctions bill, requesting delays to the vote and calling on lawmakers to weaken the proposed measures.

While Trump has at times threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia, he has never followed through on any of those threats and consistently shoots down domestic and international appeals to get tough on Moscow. At the recent G7 Summit in Canada, Trump reportedly insisted that sanctions would be at odds with U.S. business interests.  

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also announced earlier this month that Washington will cut military aid to Ukraine in its upcoming defense budget.

‘Putin cannot stop’ – Estonian foreign minister says war in Ukraine existential for Russian president

As Russia continues to intensify its onslaught on Ukraine more than three years into the full-scale invasion, Kyiv faces a new challenge – keeping its Western allies, namely the new U.S. administration, engaged in the struggle. This became clear during the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25, where

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Ukraine's Armed Forces struck the Atlas oil depot in Russia's Rostov Oblast overnight on June 23, the General Staff reported.

The attack ignited a fire at the site, with Ukrainian forces saying the strike had reached its intended target. The facility supplies fuel and lubricants to Russian military units.

Yuri Slyusar, the acting governor of Rostov Oblast, confirmed that a fire occurred at an industrial facility after the attack. He added that no one was injured.

The full extent of the damage is still being assessed, according to the military.

Located near the Azov Sea and bordering Ukraine, Rostov Oblast plays a crucial logistical role for Russia's war effort due to its proximity to front-line operations. The same depot was previously targeted in November 2024.

"The defense forces continue to take all measures to undermine the military and economic potential of the Russian occupiers and force the Russian Federation to stop its armed aggression against Ukraine," the General Staff said.

The strike is part of Ukraine's broader campaign aimed at disrupting Russian supply chains and degrading its capacity to sustain the full-scale invasion.

Fuel depots, rail infrastructure, and ammunition stockpiles inside Russia and occupied territories have increasingly become targets for long-range drone and missile strikes.

Explained: How Ukraine and Russia swap prisoners of war

Even after Ukraine cut diplomatic ties with Russia in 2022, prisoner exchanges have continued as one of the few remaining channels of communication between the two countries. Negotiated behind closed doors and carried out irregularly, POW swaps — and the decisions surrounding them — have long been shrouded in secrecy. Controversies have

The Kyiv IndependentDaria Shulzhenko

U.S. President Donald Trump on June 23 called for urgent measures to prevent rising oil prices amid escalating tensions with Iran.

"Everyone, keep oil prices down. I'm watching," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "To the Department of Energy: Drill, baby, drill! And I mean now."

The post comes after global oil prices surged on June 13 following a series of Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The escalation sparked fears of broader conflict in the energy-rich Middle East, home to critical oil shipping routes.

The surge in oil prices risks undermining Western attempts to curb Russia's war funding, as the Kremlin relies heavily on oil revenues to sustain its invasion of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that a price surge could further embolden the Kremlin.

On June 21, the U.S. joined Israel in conducting airstrikes that targeted three nuclear facilities in Iran — Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. The operation triggered a strong response from Tehran, which threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance responded on June 22 that any Iranian attempt to shut the strategic waterway would "destroy their own economy." The strait is a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies, with nearly a fifth of the world's oil passing through it daily.

Amid the turmoil, the EU has reportedly postponed plans to tighten the $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian crude, originally imposed in December 2022. The mechanism restricts Western firms from shipping or insuring Russian oil sold above that threshold.

The Russian Finance Ministry has relied heavily on energy revenues to sustain defense spending, which hit record highs this year.

Ukraine has evidence Russia prepares military operations in Europe, Zelensky says

“We are observing a continued intellectual decline within the Russian leadership and have evidence that they are preparing new military operations on European territory,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentNatalia Yermak

Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory between January and May have cost Russia over $10 billion, including $1.3 billion in direct damage to industrial facilities and infrastructure, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists on June 21.

The indirect damage caused by the disruption of Russian industrial activities is estimated at $9.5 billion, putting the cost-to-result ratio of Ukrainian deep strikes at 1:15, Syrskyi said at a briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent.

Kyiv has ramped up drone attacks against Russian military and industrial sites far behind the border as part of its DeepStrike strategy, seeking to undermine Moscow's ability to wage war.

The attacks targeted Russia's oil refining sector, the fuel and lubricants facilities, energy and transport support, and strategic lines of communication.

"Remember that during negotiations, the Russian side listed a halt to strikes against the oil refining industry as one of the conditions. This shows that our strikes are truly effective," Syrskyi said.

Oil and gas exports are among Russia's key revenue sources and play a crucial role in sustaining its war effort.

"Of course, we will continue (attacking deep inside Russian territory). We will increase the scale and the depth," the commander added, stressing that the attacks target solely military facilities.

Ukraine has increased the production of long-range drones with the support of Western partners and developed new tactics in striking Russia behind the lines.

In one of the most audacious attacks, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on June 1 struck dozens of Russian bombers and other aircraft across four different air bases in an operation dubbed Spiderweb. SBU drones were smuggled to Russia in trucks and then deployed to attack airfields thousands of kilometers from the Russia-Ukraine border.

Russia ‘afraid to admit’ scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers’ bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says

Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

The European Union has postponed a move to lower the existing price cap on Russian oil, after concerns that the Iran-Israel conflict could lead to higher prices, Politico reported on June 20, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

The price cap, introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

Ukraine has been calling on Western partners to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $30 per barrel. Meanwhile, two diplomats told Politico that the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel would make it impossible to impose new restrictions.

"The idea of lowering the price cap is probably not going to fly because of the international situation in the Middle East and the volatility," said one diplomat on the condition of anonymity.

The issue of reducing the price cap on Russian oil was discussed during the Group of Seven (G7) summit, which was held June 15-17 in Canada. However, the participants failed to reach a consensus.

"At the G7 meeting this week, it was agreed by all the countries they would prefer not to take the decision right now," the diplomat added. "The prices were quite close to the cap; but now the prices are going up and down, the situation is too volatile for the moment."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during the G7 summit that the existing measures on Russian oil exports "had little effect," while noting that oil prices had risen in recent days, so "the cap in place does serve its function. "

Global oil prices spiked on June 13, after Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a long-range war between the two countries that has continued for over a week.

Brent and Nymex crude prices surged more than 10% before stabilizing around 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20 as of June 20, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to restrict the wartime revenue of the Russian state, which depend heavily on oil exports.

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas previously urged the European Union to pursue lowering the oil price cap on Russian oil, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia's revenues.

After 3 years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe finally lays out road map to detox from Russian oil and gas

After three years of limited measures and political hangovers, the European Union has laid out a legal roadmap to finally end its long-standing addiction to Russian oil and gas. Under a new legislative proposal announced in Strasbourg on June 17, Brussels aims to cut off all remaining imports of Russian

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

Australia has, for the first time, imposed sanctions on Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, targeting 60 vessels used to circumvent international sanctions and sustain the Kremlin's war effort in Ukraine, the Australian government said on June 18.

The move aligns Canberra with similar measures introduced by the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union.

Australia's Foreign Ministry said the sanctioned vessels operate under "deceptive practices, including flag-hopping, disabling tracking systems and operating with inadequate insurance," enabling illicit Russian oil trade that undermines international sanctions.

"Russia uses these vessels to circumvent international sanctions and sustain its illegal and immoral war against Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement.

With this move, Australia has now sanctioned more than 1,400 Russian individuals and entities since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the government said.

The step comes amid the continued operation of Russia's shadow fleet. According to a recent study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), Russia currently operates 435 tankers outside the control of Western regulators to evade sanctions such as the G7-EU price cap on Russian oil.

These vessels are typically un- or underinsured and pose a rising environmental risk due to their age and operational opacity.

KSE estimates that as of April 2024, 83% of Russia's crude oil and 46% of its petroleum product exports were shipped using shadow fleet tankers. The study warns that this undermines the effectiveness of Western sanctions and increases the likelihood of maritime disasters, as many of these ships fall outside international safety and insurance standards.

The EU formally adopted its 17th sanctions package against Russia in May, sanctioning nearly 200 vessels tied to the shadow fleet. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the new measures also target hybrid threats and human rights violations, with more sanctions under consideration.

Some EU member states and observers have criticized the package for lacking stronger provisions to disrupt Russia's sanction evasion schemes.

Now, the EU seeks to approve its 18th sanctions package, which will add 77 more shadow fleet vessels to comply with the cap to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions and propose imposing a ban on imports of petroleum products made from Russian oil.

The United States has signaled reluctance to pursue additional sanctions despite Moscow's continued aggression in Ukraine and rejection of ceasefire proposals supported by Western allies.

Putin ‘cannot be trusted’ as mediator, Kallas says, urges EU to tighten Russian oil cap after deadly Kyiv strike

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas urged the European Union to press forward with lowering the oil price cap on Russian crude, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia’s revenues.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot be trusted" to mediate peace in the Middle East while continuing to launch brutal attacks against civilians, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said on June 17, following a mass Russian strike on Kyiv that killed at least 21 people and injured over 130.

"Clearly, President Putin is not somebody who can talk about peace while we see actions like this,” Kallas said during a briefing in Brussels. "He's not a mediator that can really be considered. Russia cannot be a mediator if they don't really believe in peace."

Russia has sought to position itself as a potential mediator in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on June 17 that Israel appeared unwilling to accept Russia’s offer of mediation.

President Donald Trump said on June 15 that Putin had expressed willingness to help mediate between Tel Aviv and Tehran — an idea already dismissed by France. EU leaders have also questioned Moscow’s neutrality given its deep military ties with Iran, which has supplied Russia with drones and missiles used in attacks on Ukraine.

Kallas also pointed to Iran's role in enabling Russia's attacks. "Iran has helped Russia do these attacks… their cooperation is working in this regard," she said.

Kallas urged the European Union to press forward with lowering the oil price cap on Russian oil, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia's revenues.

"The whole idea of the oil price cap is to lower the prices," Kallas said. "We shouldn't end up in a situation where the crisis in the Middle East increases oil prices and makes Russia earn more… that would mean they can fund their war machine on a bigger scale."

Her warning comes after global oil prices soared on June 13, following an Israeli strike on Iran that raised fears of a broader regional conflict. Brent and Nymex crude prices surged more than 10% before stabilizing around 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to restrict Russia’s wartime revenues, which heavily depend on oil exports.

Earlier, Kallas said the EU can act independently to lower the oil price ceiling, noting that most Russian crude flows through European-controlled waters.

"Even if the Americans are not on board, we can still do it and have an impact," she said.

Her remarks come as the EU works on its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia's energy, banking, and defense sectors. The 17th package entered into force on May 20. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said new measures will further target Russia's war-sustaining supply chains.

Kallas spoke hours after one of Russia's deadliest attacks on Kyiv since the start of its full-scale invasion. The nearly nine-hour assault saw Moscow fire 472 aerial weapons, including over 280 Shahed drones and multiple cruise and ballistic missiles.

Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 428 targets, but several missiles hit residential buildings, including a nine-story apartment block in Solomianskyi district, where 16 people were killed.

President Volodymyr Zelensky called the assault "one of the most horrifying attacks on Kyiv" and again called on Western leaders to act decisively.

After 3 years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe finally lays out road map to detox from Russian oil and gas

After three years of limited measures and political hangovers, the European Union has laid out a legal roadmap to finally end its long-standing addiction to Russian oil and gas. Under a new legislative proposal announced in Strasbourg on June 17, Brussels aims to cut off all remaining imports of Russian

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

An uninsured Russian Aframax-class tanker has been illegally conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in international waters near Greece and Cyprus since July 2024, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on June 16.

According to the agency, the vessel, operating without Western insurance, is part of Russia's expanding shadow fleet used to bypass G7 and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports.

HUR said such transfers "pose an environmental threat, allow the aggressor to conceal the origin of oil, evade international control, and ensure its supply to third countries in circumvention of sanctions."

Ukraine has identified the tanker as IMO 9247443 and listed it on the War&Sanctions platform, along with 159 other tankers allegedly belonging to Russia's shadow fleet and 55 captains involved in sanction-busting operations.

Despite price caps and Western restrictions, Russia continues to profit from oil and gas exports, which remain a vital revenue source. According to HUR estimates, roughly one-third of those profits are expected to fund Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025.

In May, the EU approved its 17th sanctions package, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet vessels. The U.S. Treasury had earlier sanctioned over 180 tankers, which together accounted for nearly half of Russia's offshore oil shipments.

While the Biden administration ramped up pressure on Russia's oil trade early in 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump has since declined to impose new sanctions, despite Moscow's continued refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

The United States is opposing a proposal by other Group of Seven nations to lower the price cap on Russian oil, Bloomberg reported on June 13.

Citing unnamed sources, Bloomberg said the U.S. remains opposed to reducing the cap from $60 to $45 per barrel – a position it first took earlier this year when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined to support a similar effort.

The price cap, introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

Despite U.S. resistance, the European Union and United Kingdom – backed by other European G7 countries and Canada – have said they are prepared to move forward with the proposal, even without Washington's endorsement.

One source told Bloomberg that the EU and U.K. could explore lowering the cap without the U.S., as most of Russia's oil is transported in European waters. However, a unified G7 agreement would carry greater impact if it could be enforced by the U.S.

The price cap debate has become more urgent as oil prices, which had fallen below the $60 cap in recent months, surged following Israel's strikes against Iran in the past 24 hours.

G7 leaders will revisit the price cap discussion during the upcoming summit, hosted by Canada from June 15-17 in Kananaskis County, Alberta.

The summit agenda will also include topics such as support for Ukraine in the Russian war, global economic stability, digital transformation, and climate change.

The G7 currently includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The European Union is also represented in the group.

Israel-Iran war could provide economic boost Russia needs to continue fight against Ukraine

Israel’s “preemptive” strikes against Iran targeting the country’s nuclear program and killing top military officials could have far-reaching implications for Ukraine and could boost Russia’s ability to continue its full-scale invasion, experts have told the Kyiv Independent. Iran has been one of Russia’s staunchest allies throughout the war, providing thousands

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Global oil prices soared on June 13  after Israel launched a strike on Iran, triggering fears of a broader conflict in the energy-rich Middle East that could disrupt global supplies, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to choke off a vital revenue stream for Russia, which relies heavily on oil profits to sustain its war in Ukraine.

According to the BBC, Brent and Nymex crude prices jumped by more than 10% following the Israeli attack, reaching their highest levels since January. Prices later stabilized but remained about 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20.

The price surge comes at a crucial time for Ukraine and its Western allies, who are intensifying efforts to minimize the Kremlin's oil revenues — the backbone of Russia's wartime economy.

President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the European Union on June 11 to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, including a more aggressive price cap on oil exports.

"A ceiling of $45 per barrel of oil is better than $60, that's clear," Zelensky said at the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit in Odesa. "But real peace will come with a ceiling of $30. That's the level that will really change the mindset in Moscow."

The EU's current $60 per barrel cap, introduced in December 2022, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or servicing Russian oil sold above the threshold. While this measure has curtailed some of Russia's profits, the Kremlin continues to earn significant revenue, especially when market prices rise.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on June 10 that the EU is considering lowering the cap to $45, a move that will be discussed at the G7 summit in Canada between June 15 and 17. According to Reuters, most G7 countries, excluding the U.S. and Japan, are prepared to proceed with the reduction regardless of Washington’s stance.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early on June 13 that Israeli forces had launched "Operation Rising Lion," a preemptive strike targeting Iran's nuclear program. In a televised address, Netanyahu claimed Israeli forces struck Iran's main nuclear enrichment site in Natanz and targeted key nuclear scientists.

Key to Russia’s defeat lies in its economy

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, attention remains fixed on the battlefield. But Russia’s most vulnerable flank is not in the trenches — it’s in the treasury. The West, and especially the United States, holds economic levers that could push Vladimir Putin toward serious negotiations or even collapse

The Kyiv IndependentWojciech Jakóbik

Most Group of Seven (G7) nations are prepared to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 a barrel even without support from the United States, Reuters reported on June 12, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

According to Reuters, the European Union and United Kingdom, backed by other European G7 countries and Canada, are ready to lead the charge in lowering the Russian oil price cap – even if U.S. President Donald Trump opts out.

The price cap, which bans Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel, was first introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine.

The G7 had previously attempted to lower the Russian oil price cap; however, the proposal was dropped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly declined to support it.

It is unclear whether the U.S. will support the decision this time around. Japan's position is also undecided.

Participating country leaders will revisit the price cap discussion at the upcoming G7 summit. Canada, which holds the G7 presidency this year, will host the summit on June 15-17 in Kananaskis County, located in the western province of Alberta.

The summit agenda will include topics such as support for Ukraine in the Russian war, global economic stability, digital transformation, and climate change.

President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend the summit and seek a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.

EU could impose Russian oil price cap without US support, Kallas says

The European Union can impose an additional price cap on Russian oil without U.S. support, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said at the Brussels Forum on June 11.

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn