There is no peace because Russia refuses to end the war. On 16 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of derailing all global efforts to achieve peace, speaking at a press conference in Vienna following talks with Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen, UNIAN reports. 

Zelenskyy emphasized that Kyiv remains open to diplomacy, but the Kremlin blocks every initiative.

“We’re doing everything we can to end this war… but there’s no ceasefire, no honest diplomacy, no lasting security. And that’s only because of Russia,” he said.

He called for increased pressure on Moscow to stop the bloodshed and destruction, adding that this was a key focus of his discussions in Vienna.

Zelenskyy urged the EU to adopt a strong 18th sanctions package and maintain existing restrictions, including the freeze on Russian assets.

According to the Ukrainian leader, President Van der Bellen expressed readiness to support peace efforts and provide “credible mediation” in any potential talks with Russia.

Zelenskyy also stressed the importance of preserving transatlantic unity.

“We all want the US–Europe alliance to stay strong. If it collapses, Europe will have to rapidly build up its defense industry, which takes big money and very little time,” he warned.

Finally, Zelenskyy announced plans to speak with US President Donald Trump about a new defense package Ukraine is ready to purchase.

Russia could reach the borders of Romania, a NATO member, and attack other countries if Europe fails to help defend Moldova. On 11 June, at the Ukraine–Southeastern Europe summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that after targeting Moldova, Moscow plans to occupy the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, UNIAN reports. 

According to Zelenskyy, Southeastern Europe and Ukraine are among Russia’s targets for provoking chaos in Europe. Moscow has already stirred unrest in the Balkans, attempted to manipulate public opinion in Romania, and has kept Moldova in poverty and instability for three decades in an effort to bring it under its control, he said. 

“If Europe loses Moldova this year, it will encourage Russia to interfere even more in your countries, seizing your resources, your sovereignty, and even your history,” Zelenskyy warned.

The Ukrainian leader stressed that Russia does not see Ukraine as a sovereign state, but rather as a heap of resources and a military platform for future invasions.

Putin’s Victory Day speech may reveal his next target in Ukraine

Regardless of what Putin believes, Zelenskyy said, European countries must put Russia in a position where the aggressor is forced to seek peace. He emphasized that this is entirely possible and depends on Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

“Air defense systems and drones are crucial. Another key tool is sanctions,” he claimed.

Zelenskyy explained that Ukraine needs stronger support, especially regarding Russian oil tankers and the aggressor’s financial sector.

“About the oil price cap: $45 per barrel is better than $60—that’s obvious, that’s true. But real peace will come with a cap of $30 per barrel,” he emphasized.

He also urged European countries to treat postwar security guarantees as a matter of practical necessity.

The European Commission has reportedly appointed former home affairs commissioner Ylva Johansson as the EU’s special envoy for Ukrainians, a newly created position to implement its updated refugee strategy.

Politico reported on 12 June that two officials familiar with the matter confirmed Johansson’s selection. Her appointment comes as the European Union unveiled a long-term approach to manage the needs of the displaced Ukrainians.

Johansson, who served as home affairs commissioner from 2019 to 2024, previously visited Ukraine several times. Her trips included a visit to a refugee camp near the Romania border. In recognition of her efforts, she received the Ukrainian order of merit in September last year.

Refugee protection extended as part of the EU’s updated response

Last week, the European Commission extended the temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees, reinforcing its commitment to their welfare. The EU executive detailed plans to either transition these individuals into permanent legal arrangements or assist those who choose to return to Ukraine. Johansson is expected to be at the forefront of coordinating these measures across member states.

While some European officials have expressed concerns over growing “fatigue” in certain host countries toward hosting Ukrainian refugees, others remain in favor of retaining them to strengthen local workforces. 

Ukrainian analyst Dmytro Zolotukhin recently posed a haunting question: Ukraine has been striving to be a democracy ever since it regained independence, but aren’t Ukrainians, by chance, playing in the team of losers now?

“Absolutely not,” rebutted Timothy Garton Ash at the 2025 Lviv Media Forum, the British historian and Professor of European Studies at Oxford University, whose latest book, “Homelands: A Personal History of Europe,” chronicles the continent’s transformation over half a century and won the 2024 Lionel Gelber Prize.

“You’re on the winning team. It just may take a bit of time for the victory to come.”

Ash, Europe’s self-described “historian of the present” who has spent decades “breathing Europe,” believes democracy is experiencing growing pains, not death throes.

In fact, he argues that Putin’s war against Ukraine proves democracy’s enduring power.

Ash believes that one of the reasons for Russia’s ongoing invasion was the 2004 Orange Revolution, in which Ukrainians rebelled against the electoral fraud that gave a pro-Russian president victory instead of a Western-leaning candidate: “Putin thought that democracy was coming towards him, in addition to his motives of restoring the Russian Empire.”

The strength of democracy, Ash contends, is evidenced by its unprecedented expansion: “According to Freedom House, in early 1974, there were only 35 free countries in the world. By early 2004, 89.”

What we’re witnessing now, he suggests, is not democracy’s failure but a natural “anti-liberal, anti-democratic counter-revolution” in response to this historic spread, despite all of liberal democracy’s faults. The autocracies and hybrid regimes are simply not delivering—hundreds of thousands of people protesting in Hungary, Serbia, and Hungary are proof of that, Ash believes.

But the data tells a different story

Reality, however, presents a more sobering picture: democracy is hemorrhaging support worldwide at an unprecedented pace.

Only 6.6% of the world’s population live in states defined as full democracies, while 72% live in autocracies—a historic reversal that has seen the global Democracy Index score fall from 5.52 in 2006 to an unprecedented low of 5.17 in 2024.

Even the Western democracies Ukraine aspires to join are backsliding. France’s score fell below the threshold to qualify as a “full democracy” and was downgraded to a “flawed democracy” in 2024.

The United States continues to be classified as a “flawed democracy,” ranked 28th globally. Hungary has recorded the biggest decline ever measured, plummeting to become a “transitional” or “hybrid regime.” When weighted by population, the level of democracy in Europe has fallen back forty years, to where it was in 1978.

Between 2020 and 2024, in one in five elections worldwide, losing candidates publicly rejected the outcome.

Also at LMF

“I was not fierce enough”: Georgian activist’s brutal confession as democracy collapses

Democracy’s three critical ailments

Despite this grim landscape, Timothy Garton Ash maintains his diagnosis offers hope. The historian identifies three fundamental weaknesses that have made democracies vulnerable to authoritarian assault:

1. Democracy degrading into oligarchy

“The great achievement of modern liberal democracy was to separate wealth and power,” Ash explained. “Most of human history, wealth and power have gone together. In oligarchy, they come back together.”

Ukraine knows this threat intimately from its own struggle with oligarchs. But even in established democracies, the lines are blurring dangerously. “Now, even in the United States, we see, with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and all the tech bros, Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos and others, lining up to support him, democracy degrading into oligarchy.”

2. Liberalism creating its own resistance

The second ailment emerges from democracy’s own successes. “What was associated with liberalism over the last 40 years, in particular neoliberalism, globalized, financialized capitalism, but to some extent also identity politics, left a huge part of our societies, in countries like Britain or America, feeling both economically and culturally neglected.”

Into this vacuum step the populists, who revolt against the “liberal cosmopolitan elites” and the big cities.

“They say, we hear you. We’re on your side. And they counterpose democracy to liberalism.” They claim to speak for “the people”—but as Ash notes, “it’s not the whole people. It’s only one part of the people.”

Trump himself once distinguished between “the people, and then there are the other people. And the other people are the bloody foreigners, quote, unquote. The immigrants, the outsiders, the others.”

3. Fragmentation of the public sphere

Democracy depends on shared reality, Ash argues, invoking ancient Athens: “All the citizens meet on the Pnyx. They hear all the facts. They can debate freely all the different policy options. And then together they decide to fight the invading Persians on sea rather than on land, which is how they win the Battle of Salamis.”

Today’s digital revolution has shattered this foundation.

“What’s happened over the years over the last 40 years is because of the digital revolution in media, we have the phenomenon of both monopoly, Facebook, Google, and fragmentation, so that we are losing the kind of public sphere, the kind of information environment you need for democracy to flourish.”

Ash’s seven-point prescription to save democracy

Ash’s remedy is both pragmatic and urgent:

1. “Tough on populism, tough on the causes of populism.” Address the genuine economic and cultural neglect that feeds populist resentment rather than dismissing it.

2. Strengthen all pluralist, anti-majoritarian institutions.”The independence of the courts, the civil service, auditors, obviously the different houses of parliament, and so on and so forth. These are the things that are coming under attack now, for example, in Trump’s America, and have been eroded in countries like Hungary.”

3. Learn from success. “Poland, two years ago, was very close to going down the Hungarian path, to state capture, to the demolition step-by-step of liberal democracy, and they came back. How? By winning an election that was not wholly free and fair. More people turned out to vote than ever before. More young people than old. More women than men voted in that election.”

4. Rebuild the media environment. “If you have public service media worthy of the name, hang on to them for dear life, strengthen their editorial independence, and quadruple the budget.” Ash credits the BBC with helping Britain avoid America’s fate: “You in Ukraine have Suspilne. Hang on to it for dear life. Strengthen its editorial independence. Quadruple the budget.”

5. Keep looking for what people have in common. “You’re going to have this problem in Ukraine in the next few years when the hot phase of the war is over… there’s a big danger of all the tensions and divisions in Ukrainian society coming to the surface. So keep looking for the things that keep people together.”

6. Don’t try to out-populist the populists. “It never works. We know that. If you adopt the rhetoric of the populists, if you do the dog whistle to the populists, voters will say, why should I vote for the dog whistle when I can have the real dog? It only strengthens the Marine Le Pens and the AFDs and the Nigel Farages.”

7. Don’t collaborate, even in very small ways. Drawing on Václav Havel’s wisdom: “Every dictatorship, every authoritarian regime isn’t just built on force. It’s built on these thousands and millions of tiny individual acts of collaboration. So don’t collaborate, even in the smallest way.”

The Ukrainian test case: when optimism meets reality

Ash’s confidence in democracy’s resilience faces its ultimate test in Ukraine. While he speaks of democracy’s long-term victory, Ukrainian survival depends on short-term Western commitment—commitment that’s eroding as anti-democratic populists gain power across the democratic world.

The very democratic backsliding Ash diagnoses is producing leaders hostile to Ukrainian aid. In Poland, despite historical solidarity, anti-Ukrainian sentiment is rising among voters frustrated with economic pressures, culminating in the victory of Karol Nawrocki, who has questioned Ukraine’s EU and NATO aspirations.

Slovakia’s Robert Fico has explicitly cut aid and adopted a Russia-friendly stance.

Romania’s Călin Georgescu, a pro-Putin candidate who praised Russian values and opposed NATO support for Ukraine, won the first round of presidential elections before the vote was annulled due to Russian interference. His political ally George Simion then ran in the 2025 rerun and lost by just 7% in May 2025—meaning pro-Putin forces came within single digits of controlling a NATO country bordering Ukraine.

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In the United States, Donald Trump promises “peace deals” that would reward Russian aggression by forcing Ukraine to cede territory.

Ukrainian soldiers die defending democratic ideals while voters in those same democracies choose leaders who would abandon Ukraine to Putin’s sphere of influence—exactly what happened to Georgia after its 2008 war with Russia.

The brutal mathematics are stark. Ukraine’s European integration depends on sustained Western support, but the rise of anti-democratic populists—fueled by the very ailments Ash identifies—is putting that support in jeopardy. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has already blocked EU aid packages. The Trump administration is raising suspicions of directly serving Putin’s interests. The recent Polish election of Nawrocki is sure to send shockwaves regarding supporting Ukraine through Europe.

If Ash is wrong about democracy’s resilience, if the current crisis represents not growing pains but terminal decline, Ukraine faces a choice starker than any since independence: submit to Russian domination or stand alone against an empire. No less than centuries of Ukraine’s national liberation struggle hang in the balance.

The historian’s gamble

Ash’s seven-point plan may be academically sound, and his historical perspective offers valuable long-term hope. But for Ukraine, the timeline of democratic recovery matters as much as its ultimate success. His prescription assumes democracies have the luxury of time to heal themselves—time Ukraine may not have as Western support wavers and Russian pressure intensifies.

The historian’s optimism about democracy’s eventual triumph rings hollow when Ukraine’s immediate survival depends on democracies that are currently failing his own diagnostic tests. While Ash speaks confidently about democracy being “on the winning team,” Ukrainian leaders must plan for the possibility that the team might forfeit the game before victory arrives.

For Ukraine, Timothy Garton Ash’s confidence isn’t just an academic question—it’s an existential gamble. If he’s right, Ukraine’s democratic aspirations will eventually be vindicated. If he’s wrong, they may not survive to see it.

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The foreign affairs committees of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania released a unified statement declaring comprehensive support for Ukraine’s integration into NATO and the European Union, while reaffirming their commitment to Ukraine’s victory against Russian aggression.

The committees stated that Ukraine’s victory over Russian aggression and its NATO membership “would consolidate a just and lasting peace not only in Ukraine but also in all of Europe and help to preserve the rules-based international order globally.” They argued that NATO membership would provide “a more effective and enduring framework for safeguarding Euro-Atlantic security.”

The statement emerged from a meeting held in Birstonas, Lithuania on 6 June, according to Žygimantas Paviljonis, head of the Lithuanian parliament’s foreign affairs committee. The three Baltic nations outlined five specific commitments regarding Ukraine’s future security and political alignment.

Five Key Commitments:

• Support Ukraine until its full victory, including liberation of all temporarily occupied territories, accountability for war crimes, and full implementation of international justice
• Support Ukraine’s EU membership with the goal of concluding accession negotiations and welcoming Ukraine as a full member by 1 January 2030
• Support Ukraine’s path toward NATO membership and call on the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague to take concrete political steps for Ukraine’s accession
• Welcome growing defense cooperation between Ukraine and partners and encourage Ukraine’s invitation to join the Joint Expeditionary Force as “a meaningful step towards deeper regional security integration”
• Continue diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia and its supporters, expand sanctions regimes, and ensure full legal and political accountability for crimes against Ukraine

The Baltic committees urged other national parliaments, international assemblies, and governments to endorse their position and take corresponding actions supporting Ukraine’s integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions.

Earlier media reports citing Finnish intelligence sources revealed that Russia was actively maintaining and updating plans for a potential multi-front offensive against NATO’s eastern flank, including Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states.

Intelligence sources warned that a Russian attack is considered inevitable rather than a possibility, with Russia willing to accept massive casualties and likely to use missile strikes on civilian targets, mirroring tactics seen in Ukraine.

Exclusive

North Korea’s troops, shells, missiles aided Russia in war against Ukraine, breaching UN sanctions, report confirms. Pyongyang’s shipment of arms and troops to Russia and Moscow’s return of fuel and weapons broke UN rules, according to the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team.

Military

Russian forces may launch its offensive on unexpected region bordering Ukraine’s Kyiv Oblast. The 2022 invasion route may reopen as Chernihiv could be the target of Russia in the war.

Ukraine’s terminal guidance FPV drone bypasses Russian jamming in new footage. The drone locks on target and continues mission after losing signal, video shows.

Frontline report: Putin’s helicopter dodges friendly fire as Ukrainian drone swarm engulfs Moscow. Russian air defenses fired wildly into Moscow’s skies, nearly downing their own president’s helicopter.

Grenade explosion kills Russian commander behind 2022 Mariupol deadly airstrikes. Russian media say former airstrike commander Zaur Gurtsiyev had been serving as Stavropol deputy mayor since September 2024.

Drones attack Moscow. Strategic defense plant burns in Saint Petersburg. Russia experienced drone strikes, airport delays, and a major fire at a strategic defense plant.

Frontline report: Poland orders 500 HIMARS and 1,000+ tanks as Russia’s shadow creeps through Belarus. Poland is tripling its army and investing over $50 billion in defense as Russia maneuvers behind Belarus.

ISW: Putin’s propaganda drills near NATO borders in Belarus shrink as real war consumes his army. Many Russian combat units from past Belarus-based Zapad drills are now on the frontlines in Ukraine.

Intelligence and technology

North Korea supplied Russia with 9 mn rounds of ammunition and 100 ballistic missiles since 2023. North Korea has shipped more than 20,000 containers of military supplies to Russia since September 2023, enough to equip three full brigades, according to a new international monitoring report.

Bloomberg: China cuts drone sales to Europe, but still supplies Russia. Beijing rejected allegations that it selectively restricts drone exports, calling the claims “baseless accusations.”

Forbes: Ukraine’s $10K drone motherships with laser vision replace $5M missiles. Technology developed by startup could reshape future wars.

Hackers linked to Russia target UK Ministry of Defence staff with fake news emails. Britain’s Ministry of Defence faced more than 90,000 cyber attacks from hostile states in two years, double the previous period.

Swiss clear Leopard 1 tank sale to Germany, unless reexported to Ukraine. It’s unclear if Berlin even needs them under this condition.

China dissects Russia’s mistakes in Ukraine while building world’s largest naval arsenal for potential Taiwan war. Beijing is regarding a drawn-out, grinding war, one it believes it can outlast.

Russia’s underground nuclear missile sites mapped in leak. Danwatch and Der Spiegel analyzed millions of files and hundreds of detailed blueprints, exposing the scope of Russia’s secretive nuclear weapons modernization.

German long-range Taurus missiles for Ukraine “within realm of possibility,” Chancellor says. But hesitation continues.. Friedrich Merz emphasized that the weapons system requires several months of soldier training that could make deliveries ineffective in the near term.

International

UK at OSCE: Russia chooses war over people as defense spending surpasses social programs. Russia burns $450 billion in energy revenue and empties wealth fund.

UK and Germany to lead next Ramstein meeting without US leadership. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will convene at NATO headquarters on 4 June under continued British and German leadership

Türkiye and Belgium plan to join international drone coalition for Ukraine. Coalition member states have committed $3 bn to support Ukraine in 2025, up from $2 bn delivered last year.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russia kills six civilians in Ukraine as only half of drones are downed during nighttime attack. Russian drones and guided bombs struck homes and infrastructure in at least nine locations. Moscow’s attacks killed at least six and injured over 30 civilians across Ukraine.

Political and legal developments

Czech court convicts teacher for calling Ukrainian soldiers “Nazis” in classroom. She also told teenagers that the war in Ukraine was fake.

Trump still hopes to do business with Kremlin, even as number of Ukrainian civilians killed, including children, continues to grow each day. US officials have developed an economic weapon against Russia but the order has yet to come.

New developments

Mountaineer Samoilova becomes the first Ukrainian to conquer the world’s five main peaks. Antonina Samoilova carried a fallen Ukrainian soldier’s chevron to the summit of Kangchenjunga, completing her historic conquest of the world’s main peaks.

Victoria Roshchyna posthumously receives journalism award for courage under extreme conditions. The “Honor of the Profession 2025” competition recognized a journalist who disappeared while trying to report from Russian-occupied areas.

Book Arsenal festival opens in Kyiv with 100 publishers participating. The XIII International Book Arsenal Festival opens today in Kyiv with participation from 100 major and 12 small publishing houses.

Read our earlier daily review here

Cooperation between the United States and the European Union on preventing Russian sanctions evasion has broken down, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on 27 May. According to a cited leaked internal report from Germany’s Foreign Ministry, the EU’s Special Representative for Sanctions, David O’Sullivan, told a closed-door meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council on 20 May in Brussels that there is “no joint outreach” with the US anymore. He also noted that G7 cooperation on the matter had “lost momentum.”

The leak suggests that European hopes for a united front against Russia’s sanctions circumvention are rapidly eroding. While a new 18th package of EU sanctions is being prepared in response to renewed Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, the lack of US participation raises doubts about global enforcement capacity.

Trump’s presidency and Chinese role in sanctions evasion

Süddeutsche Zeitung notes that some experts suggest that US President Donald Trump “would rather resume doing business with Russia today than tomorrow.” Normalization with Russia “will mean an end to the global sanctions regime,” Green MEP Sergey Lagodinsky warned. German MP Johann Wadephul warned that the new EU sanctions “will be financially painful for Russia” but acknowledged doubts about future American involvement, despite stating that “there will be a clear reaction from the West” to Russia’s attacking Ukraine instead of negotiating peace.

China plays a key role in sanctions evasion, the leaked report finds. EU sanctions commissioner David O’Sullivan told the EU Foreign Affairs Council that “around 80%” of such cases are tied to China, which denies involvement. Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Chief of Ukraine Oleh Ivashchenko said Chinese firms are supplying essential materials to 20 Russian arms factories.

EU cracks down on third countries, Russia’s shadow fleet, and eyes Russia’s energy and banking sectors

Despite the breakdown in US-EU coordination, the EU has reportedly achieved some success in blocking war-related exports via third countries. Export channels through Armenia, Serbia, Uzbekistan, and India have seen disruptions. However, Kazakhstan, Türkiye, and the UAE remain problematic transit points, the document notes.

Efforts against Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” — tankers and cargo ships used to bypass sanctions — have seen some progress. According to O’Sullivan, multiple nations have stripped Russian-linked ships of their flags following EU pressure. However, he urged further measures against ports used frequently by these vessels, including those in Türkiye, India, and Malaysia.

The next EU sanctions package is expected to hit Russia’s energy and financial sectors, though Russia’s ally Hungary opposes these measures and has shown “no willingness to compromise,” the document adds.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced a tougher stance against Hungary and Slovakia over their continued obstruction of EU sanctions targeting Russia, German TV channel NTV reported. Actions against them can include withdrawal of EU funds from the countries.

Speaking at the WDR-Europaforum on 26 May, Merz said, referring to the restraining role of both states in the EU sanctions against Russia:

“We will not be able to avoid a conflict with Hungary and Slovakia if this course continues.”

He emphasized that both governments represent only a “small minority” among the 27 EU member states, yet have used their veto powers to block or weaken sanctions.

“We cannot allow the decisions of the entire European Union to depend on a small minority,” Merz stated.

Pressure tools within the EU

According to the German chancellor, the EU has a range of instruments it can apply to increase pressure on the pro-Russian governments of Slovakia and Hungary. Among them are infringement proceedings for violations of rule-of-law obligations and the possible suspension of EU funding for Budapest and Bratislava.

“But there is always the option of withdrawing European funds from them,” Merz said, referencing legal mechanisms available under EU treaties. While he added that he does not seek conflict, he made it clear: “If it is necessary, then we will deal with them.”

Merz had spoken directly with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán the previous week.