According to a new Bloomberg analysis, Donald Trump outlined specific conditions for imposing “major sanctions” on Russia. At the same time, the European Commission reportedly backs using Moscow’s $330 billion in frozen assets against it.

The latest announcements continue a three-year cycle of sanctions rhetoric that has left Ukraine dependent on unfulfilled pledges while Moscow adapts to leaky restrictions.

Since February 2022, Ukrainian officials and ordinary citizens have oscillated between hope and frustration as Western allies announce measures that either never materialize or prove insufficient to change Russia’s strategic calculations.

Trump’s conditional sanctions blueprint

Bloomberg columnist Marc Champion reported on 16 September that Trump posted conditions on Truth Social requiring all NATO members to end Russian oil consumption and join sanctions on China and India before the US would “ramp up sanctions on Moscow.”

This follows Trump’s pattern of shifting responsibility to European allies. Three days earlier, Euromaidan Press reported Trump writing that “major sanctions” would come only if NATO countries acted in concert—the exact framework Bloomberg now highlights as potentially significant.

Sanctioning China and India—Russia’s largest oil customers—would require economic disruption that Western allies have consistently avoided.

European asset seizure remains hypothetical

Bloomberg’s analysis suggests the European Commission has finally backed a mechanism to use Russia’s frozen central bank reserves by converting them to loans “repayable to Russia just as soon as it pays the reparations that a United Nations-appointed commission will inevitably find due.”

As Euromaidan Press documented already in May, Europe proved capable of seizing Russian assets when Western financial interests were at stake, redistributing €3 billion to compensate European investors—but not for Ukraine’s defense needs.

The vulnerability window Russia exploits

Bloomberg correctly identifies Russia’s economic vulnerabilities: 42% to 54% of defense spending occurs off-budget, corporate debt has surged 71% since the war began, and interest rates have reached 21%. Ukraine’s drone campaign has damaged Russian oil infrastructure, creating potential leverage points.

Moscow continues escalating despite financial constraints because sanctions loopholes still allow access to critical technology (even if at inflated prices), the military remains functional even as civilian sectors suffer, and Russia has adapted to operating a war economy where normal financial logic doesn’t apply.

Most critically, Russia plays for long-term exhaustion—not just of Ukrainian forces, but of Western political, moral, and economic resilience.

Ukraine’s dependence on unfulfilled promises

Bloomberg gets one more thing right—Ukraine depends on Western pressure that never really materializes. Recent Euromaidan Press coverage shows sanctions preparation without implementation, asset freezing without seizure, and conditional promises that require unlikely cooperation.

This, in turn, creates the psychological tension that Bloomberg misses: Ukrainian officials and citizens experience hope and anxiety with each new Western announcement, knowing that implementation depends on inconsistent political will.

Until sanctions are implemented rather than announced, Moscow has little reason to change course.

Sky News reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin is trying to trick US President Donald Trump in order to escape sanctions, while NATO continues to face Russian provocations.

Putin “doing everything to avoid sanctions”

Speaking to Sky News at the Presidential Palace in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said the Russian leader is exploiting diplomacy with Trump to buy time in order to “be better prepared.” He argued that Putin’s aim is not peace, but to stop the United States from imposing further penalties. According to him,

“He’s doing everything he can to avoid sanctions, to prevent US and Trump from putting sanctions on him, and if you keep postponing applying sanctions any further, then the Russians will be better prepared.”

Zelenskyy warned that Putin seeks to escape isolation, describing the Alaska summit last month as a tool for the Kremlin to gain international visibility. He said,

“He should have received a setback in this war and stop, but instead, he received de-isolation. He got the photos with President Trump. He received public dialogue, and I think this opens the doors for Putin into some other summits and formats.”

“He understands only the language of force”

The Ukrainian president stressed that Moscow will not be persuaded by arguments or negotiations. Instead, he said Russia’s leader responds only to strength.

“He understands force. That’s his language. That is the language he understands,” Zelenskyy told Sky News, calling on Europe and the United States to act quicker.

He added that while sanctions are in place, they are not enough to stop Russia’s war.

Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of not giving Putin “space,” warning that every delay in sanctions strengthens Moscow’s position. He argued that Western hesitation risks leaving Russia better prepared for further aggression.

Russia’s 7 September missile attack on Kyiv’s Cabinet of Ministers building used an Iskander 9M727 cruise missile containing more than 30 foreign-made components, including parts manufactured in the US, UK, Japan, and Switzerland, according to Ukrainian presidential adviser on sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk.

Missile strike on Cabinet building used Western tech

Vlasiuk confirmed the building was struck with a 9M727 Iskander missile. The warhead did not explode, he said, likely due to the missile being damaged. However, the fuel ignited and caused a fire on the roof of the Cabinet building.

According to Vlasiuk, a previously examined missile of the same model contained 35 American-made parts, five Belarusian parts, and 57 Russian ones. The missile also included one component each from Japan, the UK, and Switzerland.

Foreign manufacturers identified in the missile included Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, and Altera from the US, College Electronics Ltd from the UK, Fujitsu from Japan, and Traco Power from Switzerland.

Belarusian company Integral was also listed, alongside multiple Russian firms such as Mikron, Production Association “Strela”, Angstrem, Research and Design Bureau “Eksiton”, and Karachevsky Plant “Elektrodetal”.

Shift in missile component origin revealed

Vlasiuk noted that compared to missiles analyzed in previous years, the number of US and European components had declined. In contrast, the use of Russian and Belarusian-made components increased.

Record missile and drone assault on 7 September

On 7 September, Russia launched an unprecedented assault on Ukraine using 605 explosive drones and 13 missiles. One of the missiles struck the roof of the Cabinet of Ministers building in central Kyiv.

The deadliest attack that day targeted a nine-story apartment building in Kyiv’s Sviatoshynskyi district. The blast at the residential building killed three civilians, including a baby, and injured 11 others. Ukraine’s State Emergency Service (DSNS) completed the search and rescue operation at the site on 8 September. Rescuers managed to save seven residents from the rubble.

Russia’s “shadow fleet” grows again, helping the Kremlin bypass sanctions. The number of Moscow’s oil tankers continues to expand, ensuring deliveries of Russian oil despite Western sanctions, Reuters reports. 

The Russian “shadow fleet” consists of grey-market tankers that evade international sanctions. These tankers often sail with transponders turned off, without proper insurance, and conceal their identities. They channel Russian oil exports to China, India, and Global South countries. 

About 70% of the shadow fleet that transports Russian oil passes through the Baltic Sea.

Shadow fleet keeps Russia’s oil exports afloat

Saad Rahim, chief economist at major trading house Trafigura, says that these tankers have become a key instrument in the Kremlin’s hands. These vessels allow Moscow to maintain revenues from crude oil sales despite Western efforts to restrict exports.

“As there are more sanctions and restrictions, the size of the (shadow fleet) has grown even larger,” Rahim emphasized.

New vessels replace sanctioned ones

According to the expert, in 2025 the growth of the “shadow fleet” has slowed somewhat, but it continues to expand. Often, new tankers replace those that end up on the “blacklist.” This enables Russia to keep its export channels open and avoid significant losses from sanctions.

The US cuts production, price steady at $60

Rahim also stressed that US tariffs have so far had limited impact on the global economy and fuel demand. American oil companies base their budgets on a $60 per barrel price, which is considered the break-even level. At the same time, the number of oil rigs in the country is declining, while production has stabilized at the current level.

Russia flaunts resilience in the face of new US and EU sanctions. The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has openly declared that it is impossible to force Moscow to change its course on Ukraine, Reuters reports. 

Kremlin dismisses Western sanctions

“No sanctions will be able to force the Russian Federation to change its consistent position, which our president has repeatedly voiced,” says Peskov.

The Kremlin’s spokesperson’s words aren’t far from the truth. Despite thousands of sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022, the Russian economy has stayed afloat.

Russia’s economy even grew by 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. But this year, growth has slowed sharply due to high interest rates and the costs of war. 

Ukraine calls for real security

Meanwhile, Ukrainian presidential sanctions adviser Vladyslav Vlasiuk has calculated that Russia has lost at least $150 billion due to sanctions, yet retains its military potential. The country remains the most sanctioned state in the world. 

At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stressed that real security guarantees, which can protect Ukraine from Russia, can only come from a strong Ukrainian army backed by support from its Western allies. 

However, as Washington has delayed a new package of military aid to Kyiv, the fighting between Russia and Ukraine is dragging on into a war of attrition for both sides.

Western sanctions against Russia are working and are already hitting the aggressor’s economy hard, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, which cited declines in key sectors. At the same time, the Kremlin is trying to offset its losses by looting temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands.

Sanctions squeeze the Russian economy

Business activity in Russia continues to fall. The manufacturing PMI, calculated by S&P Global, dropped to 48.7 in August out of 100 points, marking the third consecutive month in contraction territory.

Sunflower oil production in Russia also fell by 11% year-on-year. The coal sector is even worse off: 23 enterprises have halted operations due to the crisis, while 129 mines and open-pit sites, responsible for up to 85% of the country’s coal output, are seeking government support.

Coal and grain from occupied territories

Despite the crisis, Russia is trying to keep its economy afloat by plundering Ukrainian lands. New images from temporarily occupied Mariupol have shown how Russian forces are loading ships with stolen grain and coal. 

“Mariupol port. Two ships are being loaded at the same time… We expect the coal ship to head to the port of Temryuk for export clearance to Algeria, and the bulk carrier with grain to go to Egypt. Looting has predictably resumed,” reported Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of Occupation.

Stolen grain becomes the Kremlin’s business

According to the Center for National Resistance, Russia has turned stolen Ukrainian grain into a global business. Wheat that Moscow claims as “Russian” is purchased by 70 countries, including Egypt, Türkiye, and Iran. 

Russia’s oil cash machine is breaking down. Rosneft just posted a catastrophic 68% profit collapse, with free cash flow plunging 75%. This is the clearest sign yet that Western sanctions combined with Ukrainian strikes are systematically dismantling the Kremlin’s war funding.

The numbers are brutal: net income crashed from 773 billion rubles ($9.68 billion) to just 245 billion ($3.07 billion) in the first half of 2025, while revenue fell 18% despite steady production.

Most telling?

Free cash flow collapsed to just 173 billion rubles ($2.17 billion)—a 75% drop that’s catastrophic for a company that paid out $6.78 billion in dividends and needs billions more for Arctic projects and war funding.

Ukraine’s drone war pays dividends

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin’s complaints tell the whole story. He blamed “tighter EU and US sanction restrictions” for forcing steeper discounts on Russian crude, while a stronger ruble crushed export earnings.

Even more revealing, Sechin is now publicly griping about the OPEC+ strategy (the cartel of 22 major oil producers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, that coordinates global production), showing Russia can no longer influence global oil policy from a position of strength.

The man once skeptical of OPEC cooperation is now begging the cartel to prop up prices.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes are systematically crippling Russian refining capacity. Depending on sources, up to 17% of Russia’s refining capacity is offline, with some regions introducing fuel rationing and wholesale gasoline prices up 45% despite falling global crude prices.

The strategic validation

For Western policymakers, Rosneft’s collapse validates the slow-squeeze approach.

The company still managed to raise capital spending 10% to 769 billion rubles ($9.63 billion), focusing on remote Arctic projects like Vostok Oil that won’t deliver volumes for years. But it’s paying 2024 dividends of 542 billion rubles ($6.78 billion)—more than triple this year’s actual cash generation.

That math doesn’t work long-term.

Watch these numbers

Two metrics matter most: Russian crude discounts to Brent prices and USD/RUB exchange rates. Small moves in either can swing Russia’s oil revenues by billions.

Rosneft now budgets conservatively at $45/barrel oil—signaling Moscow expects prices and sanctions pressure to persist. Combined with Ukrainian infrastructure strikes and Western financial restrictions, Russia’s oil empire faces its toughest test since the Soviet collapse.

The takeaway for global energy markets: economic warfare is working—slowly and systematically.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans for secondary sanctions targeting companies from third countries that support Russia’s war effort, as European leaders grow impatient with the stalled peace negotiations.

The initiative emerged from a meeting of German and French cabinet members on 29 August, according to Bloomberg. Both leaders called for measures to undermine Russia’s ability to finance its military operations through oil sales.

“We will continue to exert pressure for additional sanctions to be imposed by ourselves — and we are prepared to do so — but also by the US, to force Russia to return to the negotiating table,” Macron said at a joint press conference with Merz at Fort du Cap Brun near Toulon.

The timing reflects mounting frustration with President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the war. Trump’s latest two-week deadline for progress is close to expiring with little visible advancement toward a peace deal. Instead, the Kremlin launched one of its heaviest drone and missile assaults of the year this week, hitting apartment buildings and killing at least four children.

Merz specifically referenced potential US tariffs as a model for action. “In America, right now they’re discussing further tariffs,” he said. “I would welcome it very much if the American government could make a decision on enforcing those on other nations whose purchases of oil and gas finance a large part of Russia’s war economy.”

The Franco-German statement outlined plans to “further extend and develop effective and robust sanctions” through cooperation within the European Union and with Group of Seven partners. The stated goal is to “exert maximum pressure on Russia.”

The EU has already begun preparing secondary sanctions aimed at Russia’s energy sector. These measures target third countries that help the Kremlin circumvent existing penalties, with additional steps planned for Russia’s oil, gas, and financial sectors.

“We are working on the next package, there are several options on the table,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. “Of course, what will hurt them the most is any sanctions on energy and secondary sanctions.”

The EU adopted an anti-circumvention tool in 2023 that prohibits exports, supply, or transfers of certain goods to third countries considered to aid sanctions evasion. However, the bloc has not yet deployed this instrument.

The EU has avoided secondary sanctions, particularly given recent criticism from the Trump administration about such policies. The current push suggests European leaders believe they have reached the limits of direct sanctions against Russia.

Merz has become increasingly vocal about the lack of diplomatic progress. The German leader said on 28 Augusthe no longer expects a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, despite Trump’s previous suggestions that such talks were possible.

Beyond sanctions, France and Germany agreed to provide Ukraine with “credible security guarantees” that would allow the country to maintain a military “without any limitations” to deter Russia. They also committed to closer defense cooperation and standardizing military equipment between their nations.

The two countries plan to discuss including France’s nuclear weapons in Europe’s overall security architecture, though they postponed a final decision on the troubled FCAS fighter-jet project until year-end.

Kallas indicated broad support among EU defense ministers for expanding the mandate of EU training missions after a ceasefire, allowing training to occur inside Ukraine rather than just outside its borders.

Zelenskyy said he and European leaders will “connect” with Trump next week to discuss security guarantees during meetings where he seeks legally binding commitments from allies as part of peace negotiations.

Macron and Merz plan separate calls with Trump over the weekend, according to Bloomberg.

The European Union is developing new sanctions to increase pressure on Russia’s weak war economy, Politico reports. However, the upcoming measures will not target Russian energy sales, which continue to finance Moscow’s war against Ukraine.

Focus on “shadow fleet” and sanctions evasion

European diplomats say the 19th package, expected next month, will target ships of the “shadow fleet” and companies helping Russia bypass existing sanctions.

Secondary sanctions against firms or countries doing business with Moscow could have the greatest impact, but their effectiveness will depend on US cooperation.

US pressure and Trump’s role

Experts note that Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks with US President Donald Trump in Alaska after the US imposed high tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. Next steps could include tighter restrictions on Russia-China trade. Trump hinted at possible “massive sanctions or tariffs” if Moscow does not support peace negotiations.

EU constraints and upcoming summit

“We don’t expect there will be much room for any material Russian oil sanctions in the EU’s 19th sanctions package,” said ICIS analyst Ajay Parmar.

 EU foreign ministers will meet at an informal summit later this week to discuss additional economic measures. While Slovakia and Hungary oppose expanding sanctions, diplomats are confident a unified stance can be achieved.

Ukraine has synchronized its sanctions against Russia with the last three packages of economic penalties imposed by the European Union, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 8.

"Three more packages of EU sanctions are fully effective in Ukraine," Zelensky said in his evening address.

Earlier on July 8, the president announced a new round of sanctions, including restrictions on five Chinese-registered companies accused of supplying components found in Russian Shahed-type drones used to attack Ukraine.

Vladyslav Vlasiuk, Zelensky's sanctions commissioner, told reporters on July 8 that the latest decrees bring Ukrainian penalties in line with the EU's 15th, 16th, and 17th packages of sanctions against Russia.

The 15th package targets individuals from Russia, Belarus, and China, among other countries, according to Vlasiuk. It includes the Russian pilot Alexander Azarenkov, who was involved in the deadly attack on the Okhmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv. Zelensky signed the sanctions decree on the one-year anniversary of the strike.

The 16th package includes individuals from Russia, China, Turkey, and other nations. It also targets the Voin Center, Russia's military-patriotic education organization operating in occupied Ukrainian territories, and Pivdennyi Flot LLC, which transports Russian oil via its "shadow fleet," Vlasiuk said.

The 17th package designates firms from Russia, China, Turkey, and other countries, including the gold-mining company Petropavlovsk and the Chinese company Skywalker Technology Co. Ltd, produce drone parts for Russia.

The EU is expected to approve its 18th package of sanctions against Russia later this week, after facing opposition from pro-Kremlin bloc members Slovakia and Hungary.

Ukraine has taken measures to coordinate sanctions with international partners in order to amplify pressure on Moscow. Zelensky on June 27 signed a decree to synchronize Ukraine's sanctions against Russia with those imposed by the EU and Group of Seven (G7).

Ukraine war latest: Trump reportedly pledges to send 10 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, asks Germany to send battery

* Trump reportedly pledges to send 10 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, asks Germany to send battery * ‘They have to be able to defend themselves’ — Trump says US will send additional weapons shipments to Ukraine, criticizes Putin * EU to impose ‘toughest’ sanctions on Russia in coordination with US senators, French foreign minister says * Russia’s Black Sea Fleet shrinks presence in key Crimean bay, Ukrainian partisans say * Putin signs decree allowing foreigners to serve in Russian army during

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

After failing to approve 18th package of sanctions against Russia due to opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, EU countries are expected to finalize an agreement this week, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said on July 7.

Since EU sanctions require unanimous approval, a single veto could prevent implementation. In late June, EU ambassadors did not approve the sanctions package because of objections from Budapest and Bratislava.

"According to my information, European countries will still reach an agreement this week on the 18th package of sanctions, together with Slovakia and Hungary," she told Ukrainian broadcaster ICTV.

The delay followed earlier signs of resistance from both governments, despite the package being introduced shortly after the previous round of sanctions took effect on May 20.

"It is noteworthy that during the previous period, when the decision on the 17th package was being made, Hungary did not vote for this decision until the last day," Stefanishyna said.

"There was even almost a day when these sanctions were not put into effect."

Unlike Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has consistently opposed sanctions and military aid for Ukraine, Slovakia has not previously attempted to block new EU measures.

Bratislava requested a delay in adopting the latest package until the bloc clarifies the financial implications of RePowerEU — an initiative to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2030.

"Without radical political leadership in the European Union, it will be very difficult," Stefanishyna said, warning of future veto threats by individual member states.

The 18th package includes new restrictions targeting Russia's energy and banking sectors, as well as transactions linked to the Nord Stream pipeline project.

These measures are part of a broader European effort to tighten pressure on Moscow as it continues to reject calls for an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine.

While the EU pushes forward with additional restrictions, the United States has not imposed new sanctions on Russia since President Donald Trump took office in January.

‘Neither side wasted time’ — Ukraine’s economy minister on minerals deal negotiations with Trump’s ‘business-oriented’ administration

Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko says her task is simple — to get the investment fund behind the closely watched minerals deal with the U.S. off the ground, and prove its detractors wrong. “There are so many criticisms from different parties that this fund is just a piece of paper we can put on the shelves — that it won’t be operational,” Svyrydenko, who is also Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister, tells the Kyiv Independent at Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers on July 4, the morning

The Kyiv IndependentLiliane Bivings

The EU will introduce the "toughest sanctions... imposed (on Russia) in the last three years" in coordination with U.S. senators, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said in a television interview on July 7.

"(Russian President Vladimir) Putin is no longer advancing on the front and is now limited to shelling residential areas with drones and missiles. This is leading to numerous casualties among the civilian population. This must stop," Barrot said.

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said on June 29 that U.S. President Donald Trump was ready for the Senate to vote on a bill to impose new sanctions on Russia. The Republican senator has repeatedly called for implementing additional sanctions against Moscow.

Barrot noted the EU is planning to impose the strongest sanctions against Russia that the bloc has introduced since 2022.

"This (war) cannot continue; it must stop. To achieve this, in coordination with American senators, Europe is preparing to introduce, based on French proposals, the toughest sanctions we have imposed in the last three years," he said.

"They will directly deplete the resources that allow Vladimir Putin to continue his war," Barrot added.

In the U.S., senators have been working on a sanctions bill, with Graham saying voting on a bill is expected to begin following the end of the July congressional break.

Graham, earlier on July 7, said he expects "the Senate will move the bipartisan Russian sanctions bill that will allow tariffs and sanctions to be placed on countries who prop up Putin’s war machine and do not help Ukraine."

The bill led by Graham has been in the works for several months as the White House has failed attempts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

"Ukraine has said yes to ceasefires and to any and all meeting requests while Putin continues to defy peace efforts. It is now time to put more tools in President Trump’s toolbox in order to end the war," he said.

Russia has relied on its partners, including Belarus, China, and Iran, for trade and to bypass Western sanctions meant to inhibit Moscow's ability to continue its war against Ukraine.

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The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Ukraine on July 6 imposed sanctions aimed at countering Russian financial schemes, including those involving cryptocurrency, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in his evening address.

Restrictions were imposed on 60 legal entities and 73 Russian citizens.

The latest sanctions package includes Ukrainian-led initiatives and must also align with restrictions imposed by international partners, according to Zelensky.

Ukraine will continue working with its partners to coordinate sanctions across different jurisdictions in the future, he added.

Zelensky also announced that the Ukrainian government is set to unveil new measures next week, aimed in part at aligning with European Union sanctions against Russia.

"All European packages against Russia should be implemented in the Ukrainian jurisdiction. Just like Ukrainian sanctions in the European Union," Zelensky said.

At the end of June, Zelensky imposed sanctions on 52 Russian citizens, 34 Russian companies, and one Chinese entity involved in the production of Shahed drones and chip manufacturing machinery.

Drones have become one of the defining tools of the full-scale war, used extensively by both Ukraine and Russia for surveillance, long-range strikes, and tactical battlefield advantage.

Ukraine’s artillery braces for shell shortage as US halts aid

The Kyiv Independent’s Francis Farrell and Olena Zashko spent a day with an artillery crew from the 28th Mechanized Brigade in the front-line city of Kostiantynivka. Following the recent decision by the Pentagon to halt shipments of certain weapons to Ukraine, a looming shell shortage is once again on the horizon for Ukrainian forces.

The Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell

Russia's economy, which defied initial sanctions and saw growth propelled by massive military spending and robust oil exports, is now showing significant signs of a downturn.

Recent economic indicators are flashing red, with manufacturing activity declining, consumer spending tightening, and inflation remaining stubbornly high, straining the national budget, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on July 4.

Russian officials are openly acknowledging the risks of a recession. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned last month that Russia was on the "verge of a recession," while Finance Minister Anton Siluanov described the situation as a "perfect storm." Companies, from agricultural machinery producers to furniture makers, are reducing output. The central bank announced on July 3 it would debate cutting its benchmark interest rate later this month, following a reduction in June.

While analysts suggest this economic sputtering is unlikely to immediately alter President Vladimir Putin’s war objectives—as his focus on "neutering Ukraine" overrides broader economic concerns—it exposes the limits of his war economy.

The slowdown indicates that Western sanctions, though not a knockout blow, are increasingly taking a toll. If sanctions intensify further or global oil prices fall, Russia’s economy could face more severe instability. This downturn undermines Putin's strategic bet that Russia can financially outlast Ukraine and its Western allies, suggesting Moscow may struggle to finance the war indefinitely.

Death of top Russian oil executive fuels fresh scrutiny of elite’s ‘window falls’

The unexplained death of a top Russian oil executive on July 4 is fueling renewed scrutiny over the rising number of high-profile Russian officials and businessmen who have died under mysterious circumstances, specifically, have fallen out of windows. Andrei Badalov, vice president of Transneft, Russia’s largest state-controlled pipeline transport company,

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Experts warn that Russia's economic growth model, overly reliant on military spending, is unsustainable and necessitates a contraction of civilian economic capacities to free up workers for the war machine, which is not a viable long-term strategy. Putin recently dismissed suggestions that the war is stifling the economy, echoing Mark Twain by stating reports of its death "are greatly exaggerated." However, he also cautioned that a recession or stagflation "should not be allowed under any circumstances."

After a brief recession in 2022, military spending, which accounts for over 6% of gross domestic product this year (the highest since Soviet times) and approximately 40% of total government spending, had propped up Russia’s economy and blunted the impact of Western sanctions. Russia’s ability to reroute oil exports to China and Beijing’s support with electronics and machinery provided additional economic stimulus. This created an economic paradox: the most sanctioned major economy was, for a period, growing faster than many advanced economies.

However, this military spending "sugar rush" fueled runaway inflation, compelling the central bank to raise interest rates to a record 21% to try and tame it. Higher interest rates increased borrowing costs for businesses, curbing investment, expansion plans, and squeezing profits. The economic comedown has already begun.

Official data shows Russian GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, down significantly from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024. S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index indicated Russia’s manufacturing sector contracted at its sharpest rate in over three years in June, and new car sales dropped nearly 30% year-over-year in June.

Businesses across Russia are feeling the effects, according to the WSJ. Rostselmash, the country’s largest producer of agricultural machinery, announced in May it would cut production and investment, and pull forward mandatory annual leave for its 15,000 employees due to a lack of demand. In Siberia, electricity grid operator Rosseti Sibir stated it was on the verge of bankruptcy due to high debt, halting investments and proposing tariff hikes for industrial users.

While some analysts argue the Russian banking system remains stable, others warn of increasing instability. A recent report by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted risks from a government decision to control war-related lending at major Russian banks. The state could direct banks to offer preferential loans, potentially forcing the government to absorb losses if high interest rates prevent companies from meeting obligations.

The Moscow-based Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting also assessed in May that the risk of a protracted systemic banking crisis in 2026 was "moderate" and growing.

These economic challenges intensify pressure on the Kremlin by reducing its financial capacity to fund its war in Ukraine. The government has operated with a budget deficit throughout the war and projects this will continue for at least two more years. This fiscal strain could provide an opening for Western nations to implement more powerful sanctions.

Falling oil prices present another significant risk for Russia, as energy sales account for about a third of its budget revenues. The price of Russian crude has consistently remained below the level assumed in this year’s budget, and Russia’s oil-and-gas revenue in June fell to its lowest level since January 2023, according to Finance Ministry data.

Trump says Putin ‘wants to keep killing people,’ signals US may send Patriots to Ukraine

“It just seems like he wants to go all the way and just keep killing people. It’s not good,” U.S. President Donald Trump said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has imposed sanctions on the Russian IT company Aeza Group for hosting infostealers and ransomware operations, according to a press release published on July 1.

Restrictions were imposed on two subsidiaries and four members of the Aeza Group's management as well, the statement read.

The U.S. Treasury Department characterized Aeza as a "bulletproof hosting service" that provided services to the Meduza and Lumma infostealers, as well as to the BianLian and RedLine ransomware groups.

Aeza Group also hosted the Russian-language darknet marketplace for illegal drugs, BlackSprut.

According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Aeza Group sells access to specialized servers that help cybercriminals avoid detection and resist attempts by law enforcement agencies to suppress their criminal activities.

Sanctions against the company involve blocking all assets of the named individuals located in the U.S. Any legal entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, individually or in the aggregate, by 50% or more by one or more of the mentioned individuals are also blocked.

Violation of the U.S. sanctions may result in civil or criminal penalties.

The news comes as Ukraine continues to call on the U.S. to strengthen sanctions against Russia. Despite Russia's refusal to accept the ceasefire proposal and its army's ongoing advance across Ukrainian territory, the Trump administration has not yet imposed new restrictions.

Meanwhile, Senators Lindsey Graham (R) and Richard Blumenthal (D) introduced a bill to impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries that continue to buy Russian oil and raw materials.

The legislation currently has broad bipartisan support, with 82 out of 100 U.S. senators backing it. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson also voiced his support for the bill.

Ukraine’s new interceptor UAVs are starting to knock Russia’s long-range Shahed drones out of the sky

Russia’s Shahed drone swarms are pummeling Ukraine on a nightly basis, inflicting ever more death and destruction in cities that had managed to carve out some sense of normalcy amid wartime. Civilian alarm has grown. With traditional air defense stockpiles running low, the government is banking on newly created

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul met in Kyiv on June 30, where the two leaders discussed Germany supplying additional IRIS-T air defense systems, joint weapons production, and strengthening sanctions against Russia, Zelensky said.

Wadephul earlier said Germany is working with its defense industry, European allies, and the U.S. to secure more air defense systems for Ukraine.

"We are going down every path available... The German defense industry is trying to expand its capacity. We're speaking with our European partners, and I believe we must also move forward with the United States," he said.

Zelensky met with executives of German defense companies alongside Wadephul during the visit to Ukraine's capital.

"We discussed sanctions pressure on Russia, the potential for supplying new IRIS-T systems, and joint weapons production — both in Ukraine and in Germany," Zelensky said in a post to social media.

Zelensky noted Germany signalled it believes that Ukraine's future is in NATO amid Russia's war against Ukraine.

"We will continue to develop relevant military hubs and increase the presence of German companies in Ukraine. We had an in-depth discussion on interceptor drones. I am grateful for the willingness to help," Zelensky said.

Earlier in the visit, Wadephul noted that he remains in close contact with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to assess whether existing systems from Germany's own stockpiles can be redirected to Ukraine.

Loss of Ukraine lithium deposit to Russia won’t impact minerals deal, says investor

Russian troops have taken over the site of one of Ukraine’s most valuable lithium deposits near the village of Shevchenko, Donetsk Oblast, as Russia ramps up its summer offensive. While Ukrainian troops control territories near the site, the deposit is now under Russian occupation, Roman Pohorilyi, founder of open-source

The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell

After holding a discussion with U.S. President Donald Trump, Senator Lindsey Graham said on June 29 that the U.S. president was ready for the Senate to vote on a bill to impose new sanctions on Russia.

Voting on the bill is expected to begin following the end of the July congressional break, Graham said.

"For the first time yesterday the president told me... he says, 'it's time to move your bill'," Graham said in an interview with ABC News, stressing that it would be Trump's purview as to whether the bill would ultimately be signed into law.

When asked if Graham expected Trump to sign the bill, the senator responded: "Yes, I think we're in good shape... But he has a waiver. It's up to him how to impose it."

Graham said he held the talk with Trump during a round of golf on June 28. No specific timeline was provided as to when the bill can be expected to be moved, although Congress is set to reconvene on July 9.

Signed by 84 co-sponsors, Senators Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) have been working on a revised version of their bill that would impose secondary sanctions on Russian trading partners, while shielding Ukraine’s allies from penalties and making technical adjustments.

"So what does this bill do? If you're buying products from Russia and you're not helping Ukraine, then there's a 500 percent tariff on your products coming into the United States. India and China buy 70 percent of Putin's oil. They keep his war machine going," Graham explained.

Despite pressure, Trump has thus far refused to impose additional sanction against on his own accord. Amid discussion around the Senate bill, Trump has reportedly asked Graham to to soften his proposed sanctions, having previously postponed a vote on the bipartisan measure.

Amid the slow process of moving the proposed bill, Graham described the move as a "big breakthrough."

Ukraine has repeatedly urged the United States to impose additional sanctions on Russia as Moscow continues increase the frequency and magnitude of its attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Graham's comments come just hours after Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto claimed that Washington lifted sanctions that hindered the expansion of the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, where Russia's state-owned energy company Rosatom is to build two new reactors.

Hungarian FM says US lifted Russian sanctions that hindered expansion of Paks Nuclear Power Plant

“Construction of the major pieces of equipment for the Paks nuclear plant is proceeding in Russia and France,” Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said, as cited by Bloomberg.

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on June 28 that he does not intend to meet directly with President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming that the Ukrainian president "hates" him, as relations between the two countries continue to sour.

Fico's comments come just one day after Slovakia joined Hungary in blocking an 18th package of sanctions against Russia, an unnamed EU official told the Kyiv Independent. Unlike Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has consistently opposed sanctions against Russia, Slovakia has not previously attempted to block EU sanctions.

"I see no reason to meet with the Ukrainian president," Fico told Slovak broadcaster STVR, stressing he has better relations with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. "My meeting with President Zelensky has no significance because he hates me," he added.

Fico's comments on a potential meeting refer to talks on improving bilateral relations between the two countries, including in areas of Ukraine's EU accession as well as additional sanctions on Russia.

"I’m the Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, and my task is to do everything to ensure that gas prices in Slovakia do not rise because of Ukraine," Fico told STVR, in reference to concerns over Slovakia's reliance on Russian gas and energy exports that were allegedly not addressed in the 18th sanctions package.

Slovakia has requested that the adoption of the 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia be postponed until a decision is made on the consequences for the member states from RePowerEU, the European Commission's initiative to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2030 in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

EU foreign policy decisions, including sanctions, require unanimous approval by all member states. A Slovak veto could continue to force concessions or delay enforcement in future rounds.

Despite the criticism, Fico added that "Ukraine's EU membership brings more advantages than disadvantages for Slovakia," but stressed that other officials, including Slovakian President Peter Pellegrini would handle discussions with top Ukrainian leadership.

Since taking office in 2023, Fico has also reversed Slovakia's previous pro-Ukraine policy, ending military aid to Kyiv and questioning the value of EU sanctions on Russia.

Zelensky has not responded to Fico's claims.

EU fails to adopt new Russia sanctions due to Hungarian, Slovak opposition, source says

Unlike Ukraine-skeptic Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovakia has not previously attempted to block EU sanctions.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on June 27 imposing sanctions on 52 Russian citizens as well as an additional 34 Russian companies and one Chinese entity involved in the production of Shahed-type drones and chip manufacturing machinery.

Ukraine introduced new restrictions as Russia has escalated drone attacks against Ukrainian cities over the past weeks, launching upwards of 400-500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) per night.

Individuals and legal entities subject to Ukrainian sanctions cannot do business and trade in Ukraine, cannot withdraw their capital from the country. In the meantime, their assets are blocked, as well as their access to public and defense procurement, and entry into the territory of Ukraine, among other restrictions.

Andrii Yermak, head of the Presidential Office, said on Telegram that the sanction primarily enterprises and individuals collaborating with a Shahed manufacturing facility located in the town of Yelbuga in Russia's Tatarstan.

Russia has launched thousands of cheap but effective Iranian-designed Shahed drones against Ukraine since the fall of 2022. Originally designed in Iran, Russia has since produced its own Shahed-type drones on Russian territory.

Drones have become one of the defining tools of the full-scale war, used extensively by both Ukraine and Russia for surveillance, long-range strikes, and tactical battlefield advantage.

Earlier in the day, Zelensky signed a decree to coordinate sanctions against Russia with international partners, particularly the European Union and the Group of Seven (G7).

EU reportedly fails to adopt new Russia sanctions due to Hungarian, Slovak opposition

Unlike Ukraine-skeptic Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovakia has not previously attempted to block EU sanctions.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Editor's note: The story was updated with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's statement voiced during the EU summit.

EU ambassadors have failed to approve the 18th package of sanctions against Russia due to opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, an unnamed EU official told the Kyiv Independent on June 27.

After the 17th package of sanctions against Russia took effect on May 20, Ukraine's allies announced the following day that another round of restrictions was already in the works. Meanwhile, officials in Hungary and Slovakia protested against the approval of new restrictions against Russia.

Unlike Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has consistently opposed sanctions against Russia, Slovakia has not previously attempted to block EU sanctions.

"No agreement was reached. Ambassadors will return to this issue after two reservations are removed," the source told Suspilne in a reference to the position of Slovakia and Hungary.

Slovakia has requested that the adoption of the 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia be postponed until a decision is made on the consequences for the member states from RePowerEU, the European Commission's initiative to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2030 in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico voiced this proposal during the EU summit, the Slovak Foreign Ministry told Suspilne.

The ambassadors also agreed to extend sectoral sanctions against Russia for six months. These sanctions encompass a broad array of economic areas, including restrictions on trade, finance, technology and dual-use goods, industry, transport, and luxury goods.

In June, the European Commission presented the 18th package of sanctions, which includes new restrictions against the Russian energy and banking sectors and transactions related to the Nord Stream gas pipeline project.

Ukraine's European allies are tightening sanctions against Russia as Moscow refuses to accept a ceasefire. Despite Russia's refusal, no new U.S. sanctions have been imposed so far.

Warfare in Ukraine has changed… again

The Kyiv Independent’s Francis Farrell explains a new modification of the standard first-person view (FPV) drone that already once transformed the way war is fought. Fiber optic cable now used to connect drone operators to FPVs ensures a perfect image and control experience all the way to the target — and cannot be spotted by enemy drone detectors.

The Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on June 27 to coordinate sanctions against Russia with international partners, particularly the European Union and the Group of Seven (G7), the President's Office said on its website.

A day earlier, EU member states' leaders gave their political consent to extend the sanctions previously imposed on Russia for its war against Ukraine.

The EU Committee of Permanent Representatives (CORPER) also extended sectoral sanctions against Russia for another six months on June 26, European Pravda reported, citing a diplomatic source. The sanctions include restrictions against entire sectors or industries of the Russian economy or areas of operation of Russian businesses.

Meanwhile, the participants did not approve the new 18th package of sanctions, which targeted Russia's energy and banking sectors, due to Slovakia's veto.

Zelensky's June 27 decree implements a decision by Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council's (NSDC) to synchronize the sanctions against Russia with the EU and G7.

According to the document, sanctions approved by partner states must be submitted to the NSDC for consideration and approval no later than the 15th day after the partner state's decision comes into force.

The Cabinet of Ministers, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and the National Bank of Ukraine must also ensure the implementation of sanctions approved by international partners in Ukraine.

After the 17th package of sanctions against Russia took effect on May 20, Ukraine's allies announced the following day that another round of restrictions was already in the works.

The push for tighter sanctions comes as Russia continues to reject ceasefire proposals and presses forward with military operations.

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The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

European firms continue to ship critical weapons components to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky told the European Council on June 26 in a plea for tougher EU sanctions against Moscow.

"Some European companies are still sending critical components to Russia. These end up in missiles and other weapons used to kill us, kill Ukrainians," Zelensky said in a video address to the European Council summit in Brussels.

Ukraine is in the process of identifying these materials and will pass along evidence to EU officials, he said.

Zelensky's remarks were part of a broader appeal for the EU to expand and strengthen economic penalties on Russia. While the bloc reached an agreement in Brussels to extend current sectoral sanctions for another six months, it is still debating its proposed 18th package of sanctions against Russia.

Zelensky urged the EU to pass "a truly strong" 18th package, targeting "Russia's oil trade, its shadow tanker fleet, Russian banks and other financial instruments, and the supply chains that bring equipment or parts for making weapons."

The sanctions should not only penalize Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" vessels, but also the tankers' captains and the ports Russia uses to export oil, Zelensky said.

The president also reiterated his call to drop the current oil price cap to $30 per barrel.

"Russia's military ambitions grow when its oil revenues are high," he said.

Several European countries still rely heavily on Russian oil and gas, Zelensky pointed out. Ukraine understands the complexities of this situation and treads carefully in order to respect its partnership with the EU.

"Yet, sadly, we don't always feel this same understanding in return when it comes to Ukraine's needs," Zelensky said.

"It feels especially strange to hear such strong criticism — even political pressure from some  leaders — while our respect for EU rules allows oil to keep flowing."

While Zelensky did not specify any particular EU leaders, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in June threatened to veto the 18th sanctions package, citing concerns over Slovakia's reliance on Russia's energy imports. Fico has emerged as one of the EU's strongest supporters of Russia, alongside Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Orban took aim against Kyiv at the Brussels summit by blocking a unanimous statement of support for Ukraine's accession to the EU. All 26 other member states supported the statement, while Hungary was the sole opponent.

In his address to the Council, Zelensky urged the EU to send a clear signal of support for Ukraine's European path. Ukraine has fulfilled its obligations in the accession process, the president argued, and deserves recognition of its progress.

"Any delay by Europe at this point could create a global precedent and a reason to doubt Europe's words and commitments," he said.

Putin under pressure to declare war on Ukraine, but experts say Russia isn’t ready

Despite suffering over 1 million casualties, pounding Ukrainian cities nightly with missiles and drones, and committing countless war crimes, one startling fact about Russia’s full-scale invasion remains — Moscow has yet to officially declare war on Ukraine. In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin described what he believed was going to be a swift victory and the capture of Kyiv within days as a “special military operation.” Nearly three-and-a-half years later, the Kremlin is stuck

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Editor's Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

The European Union on June 26 reached an agreement to extend sanctions against Russia for another six months, an undisclosed EU official told the Kyiv Independent.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed the agreement shortly afterwards in a joint press conference alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa at the EU summit in Brussels.

The EU made the decision on June 26 to extend its current sanctions against Russia for six more months, Tusk said.

"We still have a decision about the 18th sanctions package ahead of us," he added.

The EU votes to renew its sectoral sanctions against Russia every six months in January and July. Sanctions encompass a broad array of economic areas, including restrictions on trade, finance, technology and dual-use goods, industry, transport, and luxury goods.

The latest agreement comes amid fears that Hungary, one of the bloc's most Kremlin-friendly member states, would attempt to block the extension. Hungary has repeatedly threatened to use its veto power to obstruct the sanctions process.

The European bloc first adopted sanctions related to Russian aggression on July 31, 2014, after Moscow occupied Crimea and invaded Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. The EU has significantly scaled up its sanctions measures in the wake of the full-scale invasion, adopting 17 major sanctions packages since February 2022.

The EU on June 10 unveiled its 18th package of sanctions against Russia, expanding current measures to include new restrictions on energy, banking, oil, and other sectors. The initial proposal included banning transactions involving the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines and reducing the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel.

Soon after the package was announced, however, the EU reportedly postponed the effort to reduce the oil price cap.

The 18th round of sanctions is currently under debate. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, another Moscow-friendly European leader, has threatened to veto the package. Slovakia has not previously attempted to block EU sanctions against Russia.

Ukraine war latest: Russia’s advance in Sumy Oblast ‘halted’; Kyiv, Moscow carry out POW swap

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The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio surprised NATO allies this week with conflicting messages on Russia sanctions, delivering a tougher stance in private than in his public remarks, Politico reported on June 25.

Rubio met with NATO foreign ministers on June 25 during a private dinner at the alliance's annual summit. According to sources who spoke with Politico, Rubio acknowledged that Russia was the main obstacle preventing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.

He reportedly said the U.S. Senate would likely consider new sanctions legislation after completing work on President Donald Trump's spending bill.

However, just hours later, Rubio softened his position on Russia during an exclusive interview with Politico, calling for a more cautious approach.

"If we did what everybody here wants us to do, and that is come in and crush them with more sanctions, we probably lose our ability to talk to them about the ceasefire and then who's talking to them?" Rubio said.

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In a rare public sign that all is not well in Russia, two high-ranking Moscow officials last week issued separate warnings about the state of the country’s economy. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov both highlighted that amid the Kremlin’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the tools Moscow once relied on to maintain wartime growth are nearly exhausted. Almost immediately, Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 20 dismissed the concerns, clai

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

He also added that Trump would know the "time and place" to change course.

When asked about the apparent shift in tone, a senior U.S. official insisted Rubio's messaging has remained consistent in conversations with allies.

"The secretary has been very consistent in meeting and calls with his counterparts on three key point," the official said.

"One is that the president believes strongly that the only way this war ends is through negotiations; second, as soon as the U.S. imposes new sanctions on Russia the opportunity for the U.S. to be involved in those negotiations closes; and third, that the Senate, in America anyway, is an independent body that at some point is going to move on those sanctions,."

At the NATO dinner, Rubio reportedly faced criticism from Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin was disrespecting Trump by violating the ceasefire.

It has been more than 100 days since Ukraine agreed to a U.S.-backed complete ceasefire, while Russia continues to reject it.

Sikorski also reportedly denounced Moscow's repeated attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, which have intensified in recent weeks, saying such strikes "should not come for free" — implying that the U.S. and Europe should do more to support Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Rubio has delivered different messages in public and behind closed doors. Despite the shifting rhetoric, Baltic and Nordic countries reportedly view him as a pragmatic ally within the Trump administration — one who has a realistic understanding of the threats posed by Russia and China, according to a second European official cited by POLITICO.

Ukraine war latest: US signals more Patriot missiles for Kyiv after Zelensky-Trump talks at NATO summit

Key developments on June 25: * Zelensky, Trump hold talks on NATO summit sidelines * ‘Something unknown’ hits key Russian drone facility in Taganrog, Ukrainian official says * Russia has launched over 28,000 Shahed drones at Ukraine since 2022, with nearly 10% fired in June alone, Zelensky says * Donetsk Oblast city “on

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 20 said sanctions are "urgently" needed on more Russian defense companies in order to stall the mass-production of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).

Speaking at a press briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent, Zelensky said a "large number" of companies were involved in the manufacture of Oreshnik which Russia has launched at Ukraine once, and used the threat of more launches to intimidate Kyiv and its Western allies.

Russia first launched the experimental Oreshnik missile in an attack against Dnipro on Nov. 21. Putin claimed the strike was a response to Ukraine's use of U.S. and British long-range missiles to attack Russian territory.

While little is known about the missile, defense experts say it is likely not an entirely new development, but rather an upgraded version of Russia's RS-26 missile. The RS-26, also known as the Rubezh, was first produced in 2011.

While Putin has announced plans for mass production of the Oreshnik, a U.S. official previously  told The Kyiv Independent that Russia likely possesses only a small number of these experimental missiles.

Zelensky said 39 Russian defense companies were involved in its production, 21 of which are not currently under sanctions.

"And this means that they receive parts and components for the Oreshnik, and they need it, because without these parts there will be no Oreshnik," he said.

Highlighting apparent difficulties Russia was already having in mass-producing the missile, Zelensky said it is "absolutely incomprehensible why sanctions should not be imposed urgently."

The Financial Times (FT) reported on Dec. 27. that the upgrades were developed using advanced manufacturing equipment from Western companies, despite sanctions.

Two key Russian weapons engineering institutes — Moscow Institute for Thermal Technology (MITT) and Sozvezdie — were named by Ukrainian intelligence as developers of the Oreshnik.

According to the FT, they posted job listings in 2024 that specified expertise in operating German and Japanese metalworking systems.

The listings cited Fanuc (Japan), Siemens, and Haidenhein (both Germany) control systems for high-precision computer numerical control machines essential for missile production.

Despite sanctions slowing the flow of such equipment, FT analysis found that at least $3 million worth of Heidenhain components were shipped into Russia in 2024, with some buyers closely tied to military production.

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The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

The European Union has postponed a move to lower the existing price cap on Russian oil, after concerns that the Iran-Israel conflict could lead to higher prices, Politico reported on June 20, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

The price cap, introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

Ukraine has been calling on Western partners to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $30 per barrel. Meanwhile, two diplomats told Politico that the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel would make it impossible to impose new restrictions.

"The idea of lowering the price cap is probably not going to fly because of the international situation in the Middle East and the volatility," said one diplomat on the condition of anonymity.

The issue of reducing the price cap on Russian oil was discussed during the Group of Seven (G7) summit, which was held June 15-17 in Canada. However, the participants failed to reach a consensus.

"At the G7 meeting this week, it was agreed by all the countries they would prefer not to take the decision right now," the diplomat added. "The prices were quite close to the cap; but now the prices are going up and down, the situation is too volatile for the moment."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during the G7 summit that the existing measures on Russian oil exports "had little effect," while noting that oil prices had risen in recent days, so "the cap in place does serve its function. "

Global oil prices spiked on June 13, after Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a long-range war between the two countries that has continued for over a week.

Brent and Nymex crude prices surged more than 10% before stabilizing around 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20 as of June 20, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to restrict the wartime revenue of the Russian state, which depend heavily on oil exports.

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas previously urged the European Union to pursue lowering the oil price cap on Russian oil, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia's revenues.

After 3 years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe finally lays out road map to detox from Russian oil and gas

After three years of limited measures and political hangovers, the European Union has laid out a legal roadmap to finally end its long-standing addiction to Russian oil and gas. Under a new legislative proposal announced in Strasbourg on June 17, Brussels aims to cut off all remaining imports of Russian

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on June 20, imposing sanctions on 56 individuals and 55 Russian, Chinese, and Belarusian companies involved in the production of Russian drones and sanctions circumvention.

Ukraine introduced new restrictions as Russia has escalated drone attacks against Ukrainian cities over the past weeks, launching record 400-500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) per night.

Individuals and legal entities subject to Ukrainian sanctions cannot do business and trade in Ukraine, cannot withdraw their capital from the country. In the meantime, their assets are blocked, as well as their access to public and defense procurement, and entry into the territory of Ukraine, among other restrictions.

The new package of sanctions targets individuals and entities involved in the development and production of Russian drones such as Geran, Orlan-10, SuperCam, and first-person-view (FPV) drones, according to a decree published on the Presidential Office's website.

The Belarusian Precision Electromechanics Plant and six Chinese enterprises located in Hong Kong and in the provinces of Shandong and Shenzhen are among the sanctioned entities.

The sanctions list includes equipment suppliers to Alabuga Machinery, a Russian manufacturer of machine tools and gears, and individuals who import components for the sanctioned Kronshtadt JSC, a drone producer that developed Banderol UAVs with jet engines.

Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian cities with waves of attack drones, often striking energy infrastructure and residential buildings overnight. Ukraine's defense forces use a mix of electronic warfare, air defense systems, and drone-on-drone interception to repel the assaults.

Drones have become one of the defining tools of the full-scale war, used extensively by both Ukraine and Russia for surveillance, long-range strikes, and tactical battlefield advantage.

The U.S. Senate is postponing action on a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill until at least July, as other legislative and foreign policy priorities dominate the agenda, Semafor reported on June 18.

Senators Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) have been working on a revised version of their bill that would impose secondary sanctions on Russian trading partners, while shielding Ukraine’s allies from penalties and making technical adjustments. But momentum has stalled as Republicans push President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill, and the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel demands urgent attention.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) acknowledged on June 18 that a "July timeframe" was now more realistic for the sanctions bill. "We’re very open to moving, we’re trying to work with the administration from a timing standpoint," Thune said, according to Semafor. Graham added that the Senate is "going to have to wait a bit," citing shifting global developments. "Things are changing now with Iran… that doesn’t mean I’ve forgotten about Russia or Ukraine. Not at all. Iran is center stage, but sooner rather than later," he said.

Trump has not yet signaled support for the legislation, which remains a critical obstacle.

While sanctions enjoy broader Republican backing than direct military aid to Ukraine, GOP lawmakers are hesitant to move forward without Trump’s approval. The U.S. president left the G7 summit in Canada early, skipping a planned meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, as attention shifted to a potential U.S. response to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. "All the focus is on Israel and Iran right now," said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), though he noted that he is "all for putting sanctions" on Russia.

Graham and Blumenthal had hoped to secure passage of the bill ahead of the G7 summit after visiting Ukraine earlier this year. Blumenthal said he and Graham were "making tremendous progress" with the administration, but acknowledged that other priorities were pushing the legislation off the floor.

Supporters of the sanctions argue the bill would give Trump more leverage in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "We want to strengthen our hand in the negotiation," said Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.). "We want to help effectuate an outcome in Ukraine, so we’re trying to use it in a way that actually helps get something done." The legislation would authorize secondary sanctions on countries that continue to purchase Russian energy or conduct other major trade with Moscow.

Despite uncertainty around timing, both Graham and Blumenthal continue to refine the bill to ensure broader support, including a carveout for Ukraine’s allies and changes to accommodate the global banking system. "There is no evidence that Putin is going to slow down," Graham told Semafor. "We need to change the approach. I think the sanctions will give the president leverage."

‘Do me a favor Vladimir, mediate Russia first’ — Trump roasts Putin over Israel, Iran offer

“I said, Vladimir, let’s mediate Russia first. You can worry about this later,” U.S. President Donald Trump said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

The European Union and its allies are ready to toughen sanctions on Russia, French President Emmanuel Macron said on the sidelines of the Group of Seven (G7) summit on June 17.

"With President (Volodymyr) Zelensky at the G7. We stand in solidarity with the Ukrainian people after last night’s massive Russian strikes," Macron said in a post to social media.

"We are determined to increase pressure on Russia to accept the immediate and unconditional ceasefire that Ukraine is ready for," he added.

Macron attended the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, from June 15-17. Global leaders discussed a wide range of topics, including Russia's war against Ukraine.

As the G7 leaders met in Canada, Russia launched one of its worst drone and missile attacks on Kyiv since it began its full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022, killing 16 people and injuring at least 134.

"The common position that is emerging is to say, 'We need to strengthen sanctions,'" CBC News reported, citing Macron.

Europe is proposing much tougher sanctions than the U.S. has imposed on Russia, Macron said, adding that the EU is in "very close co-ordination" with Canada, Japan, and the U.K.

Several countries, including Canada and the U.K., introduced additional sanctions on Russia as the G7 summit was ongoing.

Canada introduced a new military aid package for Ukraine in addition to its sanctions against Russia.

"In our view, this has changed the situation because it will allow us to bring Russia back to the negotiating table, as (U.S.) President (Donald) Trump has been demanding," Macron said, according to CBC News.

Zelensky attended the summit and met with various leaders, including Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Zelensky left the summit early, citing Russia's attack on Kyiv. The nearly nine-hour-long attack saw Moscow's forces launch large numbers of drones and missiles at Ukraine's capital.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha condemned the attack, calling it a "massive and brutal strike" timed deliberately to coincide with the G7 summit.

Zelensky described the drone and missile assault as "one of the most horrifying attacks on Kyiv."

‘He said he wasn’t going anywhere’ — Survivors search for missing following Russia’s deadliest attack on Kyiv this year

Sitting a few meters from the rubble of what used to be a nondescript nine-story residential building in Kyiv, Lilia rises to her feet every time another pile of debris is cleared from the site targeted by Russia during a mass overnight attack on June 17. “We are waiting (as

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived at the G7 Leaders' Summit in Canada on June 17 ahead of the final day of the G7 Leaders' summit, according to a Kyiv Independent journalist on the ground.

Zelensky was greeted by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Kananaskis, Alberta, where the summit is being held.

"We need more from our allies... We are ready for peace negotiations... But for this, we need pressure," the Ukrainian president said.

The Ukrainian president was expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the summit. However, it is not clear if the meeting will take place because Trump left the summit early due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt confirmed Trump's early departure from the summit, citing the ongoing escalation between Israel and Iran.

The Israeli military launched a large-scale attack on Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure on June 13, which was followed by retaliatory ballistic missile strikes from Tehran. Israel has since struck key defense targets in Tehran, including the headquarters of Iran's Defense Ministry.

Zelensky was to hold his third in-person meeting with Trump, which may signal the future of Trump and Zelensky's relationship, as well as offer insight into the United States' commitment to supporting Ukraine.

In February, Zelensky and Trump held their first meeting, which escalated into a heated argument, with Trump and Vice President JD Vance lambasting the Ukrainian leader over what they described as "a lack of gratitude for U.S. support."

The second meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the Vatican in April led to the U.S. president reiterating calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine and even threatening to impose sanctions on Russia.

In the month since their last in-person meeting, tensions between Trump and Zelensky have risen again. Despite issuing several threats, Trump has not followed through on implementing additional economic pressure on Moscow.

Ahead of the summit, European leaders urged G7 nations to impose harsher sanctions on Moscow in order to secure a ceasefire in the war against Ukraine.

"To achieve peace through strength, we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on June 15 at a press briefing attended by a Kyiv Independent journalist.

Zelensky is still expected to attend the scheduled meetings with other G7 leaders.

Zelensky said in a closed-door meeting attended by the Kyiv Independent on June 13 that his priority is to speak with Trump about sanctions against Russia, peace talks, weapons purchases, and U.S.-Ukraine economic cooperation.

"There are steps forward we can take — but we need the political will of the U.S. president, if he wants," Zelensky said on June 13.

Amid increased anxiety around Trump's commitment to ending the war, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently announced that the Pentagon would reduce funding allocated for military assistance to Ukraine in its 2026 defense budget.

Canada, which holds the G7 presidency in 2025, invited Zelensky to participate in summit, marking the Ukrainian president’s fourth G7 meeting since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

An uninsured Russian Aframax-class tanker has been illegally conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in international waters near Greece and Cyprus since July 2024, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on June 16.

According to the agency, the vessel, operating without Western insurance, is part of Russia's expanding shadow fleet used to bypass G7 and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports.

HUR said such transfers "pose an environmental threat, allow the aggressor to conceal the origin of oil, evade international control, and ensure its supply to third countries in circumvention of sanctions."

Ukraine has identified the tanker as IMO 9247443 and listed it on the War&Sanctions platform, along with 159 other tankers allegedly belonging to Russia's shadow fleet and 55 captains involved in sanction-busting operations.

Despite price caps and Western restrictions, Russia continues to profit from oil and gas exports, which remain a vital revenue source. According to HUR estimates, roughly one-third of those profits are expected to fund Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025.

In May, the EU approved its 17th sanctions package, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet vessels. The U.S. Treasury had earlier sanctioned over 180 tankers, which together accounted for nearly half of Russia's offshore oil shipments.

While the Biden administration ramped up pressure on Russia's oil trade early in 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump has since declined to impose new sanctions, despite Moscow's continued refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

The Group of Seven (G7) nations need to impose harsher sanctions on Moscow in order to secure a ceasefire in the war against Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa said at the start of the G7 summit in Canada.

The G7 Leaders Summit kicked off on June 15 in Kananaskis, Canada, with official talks held June 16-17. While Ukraine hopes to win economic support and unified pressure against Russia, the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran may dominate this year's conference.

"To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end," von der Leyen said at a press briefing on June 15 attended by a Kyiv Independent journalist.  

Economic sanctions have been an effective intervention since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, von der Leyen said. She noted that combined G7 and European Union sanctions have decreased Russian oil and gas revenues by nearly 80% since February 2022.

"(T)he sanctions are working, and we will do more," she said.

Von der Leyen urged the G7 to adapt the economic restrictions proposed in the EU's 18th sanctions package, announced on June 10. The new measures target Russia's energy and banking sectors and propose a further reduction in the oil price cap, bringing the cap down from $60 to $45 per barrel.

"I will invite all G7 partners to join us in this endeavor," she said.

With no new US aid packages on the horizon, can Ukraine continue to fight Russia?

The U.S. has not announced any military aid packages for Ukraine in almost five months, pushing Kyiv to seek new alternatives. But time is running out quickly as Russian troops slowly advance on the eastern front line and gear up for a new summer offensive. “While Ukraine’s dependence on

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Costa echoed the call for sanctions and the necessity of economic pressure in order to achieve a ceasefire. Europe is committed to "increasing additional sanctions to cripple (Russia's) ability to wage war and pressing for an unconditional ceasefire," he said.

Europe's call for unity may meet with resistance from the United States, which has assumed a dramatically different posture towards Ukraine and Russia since President Donald Trump took office in January. Trump has not imposed any new sanctions against Russia, even Moscow blatantly obstructs peace efforts and escalates mass strikes against Ukrainian cities.

The U.S. also reportedly opposes lowering the G7 oil price cap — a measure first introduced in December 2022 that prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

The price cap debate has become more urgent as oil prices, which had fallen below the $60 cap in recent months, surged following Israel's recent strikes against Iran.

Despite U.S. resistance, the EU and the United Kingdom — backed by other European G7 countries and Canada — have said they are prepared to move forward with the proposal, even without Washington's endorsement.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the other hand, has said the EU sanctions and proposed price cap drop don't go far enough. Zelensky on June 11 said the EU's 18th round of sanctions "could be stronger" and proposed further slashing the oil price cap to $30 per barrel.

"A ceiling of $45 per barrel of oil is better than $60, that's clear, that's true. But real peace will come with a ceiling of $30," he said. "That's the level that will really change the mindset in Moscow."

Zelensky and Trump are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G7 summit on June 17. The meeting will mark their third in-person encounter since Trump took office.

High stakes, low resolve: What Ukraine can expect from the upcoming G7 summit

As world leaders prepare to gather in the remote community of Kananaskis in Alberta, Canada for the Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit on June 15-17, Russia’s war in Ukraine once again holds center stage — but views on how to address the three-year conflict diverge sharply. In the five months

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Russia is exploiting automatic medical exemptions in EU sanctions regulations to import dual-use goods for its military, Lithuania's Deputy Foreign Minister Gabija Grigaite-Daugirde told Bloomberg on June 12.

According to Grigaite-Daugirde, Lithuanian customs authorities blocked 28,854 goods in 2024 that were allegedly destined for Russia and Belarus "under the guise of medical exemption."

Many of the flagged shipments contained parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copiers, and microelectronics — all of which can have military applications.

"We have witnessed parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copying machines, and other types of microelectronics being exported directly to Russia, claiming that these are bound for medical use," she said.

Under current EU rules, medical exemptions are automatically granted, leaving customs authorities to investigate the shipments retroactively. Lithuania has called for reforms allowing exporters to apply for exemptions before shipments are approved.

"Leaving automatic exemptions from sanctions for medical goods is like closing a door but leaving a keyhole," Grigaite-Daugirde said. "Russia definitely finds a way to pass."

As Moscow shifts to a wartime economy and seeks Western-made technology for its arms production, its efforts to circumvent sanctions have grown "desperate," she added.

Lithuania, a key EU and NATO member bordering both Belarus and Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, has taken a hardline stance on enforcement and regularly pushes for tougher sanctions within the bloc.

Why can’t the West match Russia’s ammunition production?

The West is failing to catch up to Russia’s production of the most basic unit of war for the past half-millennium — gunpowder. The modern propellants and explosives that power war have largely been offshored. While Western manufacturers are churning out shell casings, they are short on the materials to fill

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post