Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on 17 June that Poland has recorded GPS disruptions over the Baltic Sea, attributing the interference to Russian activities.

Speaking to journalists on 17 June, Kosiniak-Kamysz addressed mounting concerns from drone operators who have reported system failures across northern Poland, according to Polish public broadcaster RMF24.

“According to our sources, this is largely related to the actions of the Russian Federation, including acts of sabotage,” Kosiniak-Kamysz stated during the press conference. “We are monitoring these disruptions. They are recorded over the waters of the Baltic Sea, also by our NATO allies – both in the Baltic countries and in Northern Europe.”

The minister confirmed that Poland is actively responding to the situation. “According to our sources, these actions are related to the activities of the Russian Federation, including sabotage,” he emphasized.

Kosiniak-Kamysz revealed that a special security committee was convened several weeks ago to address the disruptions. General Maciej Klisz, the operational commander, prepared recommendations for military aviation while authorities shared information with civilian aviation, flight control agencies, and the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency.

The defense minister stressed the need for heightened vigilance due to increasing incidents of signal interference.

The Polish announcement follows broader regional concerns about navigation system disruptions. Lithuania and 12 other EU countries recently called on the European Commission to take action regarding Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) communication disruptions across member states.

In their letter to the Commission, the countries characterized the GNSS signal disruptions as systematic, repetitive, and targeted actions by Russian and Belarusian regimes aimed at undermining stable infrastructure operations in the region, particularly communications systems.

Days later, Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa announced that the scope of Russian-blocked GPS signals continues to expand.

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Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.

He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.

This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.

Questioning the sovereignty of nations

Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.

Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.

Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.

The return of a dangerous word: “denazification”

The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.

Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.

NATO’s Achilles heel

From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.

Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.

Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.

Russia’s Baltic fleet faces a NATO wall

At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.

Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.

These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.

No longer just words

Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.

These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.

Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.

Russia repeats Ukraine’s playbook

The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.

What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.

The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.

Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.

The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.

For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Day 1192

On 29 May, there are interesting updates from the Baltic Sea. 

Here, a Russian ship was caught almost red-handed near an underwater power cable between Poland and Sweden. The Polish government decided to act immediately and chased the suspicious ship away, but Russia took a step further and decided to provoke a direct confrontation with NATO.

Following the European Union’s recent tightening of sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet, Poland has emerged as one of the most assertive NATO members in enforcing compliance.

These measures, aimed at disrupting Russia’s covert maritime oil exports, have coincided with a noticeable uptick in Russian sabotage attempts from the same fleet across the Baltic Sea.  

The most recent incident came when Polish intelligence detected a sanctioned Russian-linked vessel, identified as the Sun, sailing under the Antiguan flag, performing suspicious maneuvers near the critical Poland-Sweden power cable. This 600-megawatt undersea line is essential for energy exchange between the two nations, and Polish prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that the Polish military intervened. A patrol flight forced the vessel to alter course, and the Polish Navy’s reconnaissance ship, ORP Heweliusz, was dispatched to the site. Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized the seriousness of the situation, stating that since Sweden and Finland joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become a key marine area, where the largest number of incidents related to cable breaks and sabotage occur.

Poland has made it clear that any threat to Baltic infrastructure will be met with a firm response.

This latest episode follows a string of Russian sabotage efforts in the region. Russia has been linked to numerous incidents of undersea tampering with 11 known undersea cables taken out since 2023 as stated by a deputy commander of the Finnish coast guard. The most recent confirmed damage occurred end of 2024, involving the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia. Investigations revealed a huge anchor drag mark on the seafloor, attributed to the Russian-linked oil tanker Eagle S. These acts are widely seen as components of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy: destabilizing European states without overt military confrontation.

However, according to Finnish Defense Minister Antti Haekkaenen, Russia has begun militarily escorting its shadow fleet tankers through the narrow and sensitive waters of the Gulf of Finland. While Russian naval presence in the Baltic is not new, deploying warships to directly shield shadow oil tankers is a significant escalation.

Tankers, like the Jaguar, which Estonia unsuccessfully attempted to escort to one of its ports for identification, which has since changed name to Blint and was re-registered in Comoros, travel now with direct military protection. This reduces the risk of boarding or interception by European states, especially in areas like the Gulf of Finland.

This militarization raises the stakes significantly. By placing its armed forces directly alongside illicit shipping, Russia is attempting to deter NATO intervention, not by warning, but by baiting. If a European navy enforces sanctions or tries to halt undersea sabotage, it must now face Russian military escorts. Any interception could lead to confrontation.

The strategic intent is clear: provoke a reaction, ideally forcing NATO to fire the first shot. This would allow the Kremlin to portray the alliance as the aggressor, both to its domestic audience and to sympathetic foreign observers. It’s an asymmetric gambit, a military shield for a commercial operation, daring NATO to test the limits of escalation.

At the same time, with the Russian economy heavily reliant on oil revenues, the Kremlin views the shadow fleet as a vital artery. Russian analysts have acknowledged the importance of these military escorts but raised doubts about the Russian Baltic Fleet’s ability to sustain such missions. Given the aging condition of Russian naval vessels and ongoing shipbuilding issues, NATO’s Baltic Sea fleet outmatches the Russian both in modern capability and collective tonnage, with superior surveillance, submarine-hunting, and rapid-response assets from multiple member states on duty.

Overall, as tensions in the Baltic intensify week by week, Poland’s role as a front-line enforcer of EU sanctions becomes ever more crucial with its readiness to act. Meanwhile, Russia continues to use the shadow fleet to provoke, probe, and project strength—all while trying to control the narrative that it is under siege. What began as covert sabotage and evasive tanker operations is fast becoming a military flashpoint, and the next Baltic incident could determine whether the fragile balance holds or breaks.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

On 24 May, Finnish defense minister Antti Häkkänen said on YLE’s “Ykkösaamu” program that Russia is now providing military escort to tankers from its shadow fleet in the Gulf of Finland. He described this as a “completely new feature” of Russian activity in the region.

While Russian naval and air presence in the area has always been noticeable, Häkkänen emphasized that armed protection of shadow fleet tankers through the narrow maritime passage is unprecedented. According to Häkkänen, as cited by YLE,

“However, a new feature is that Russia is protecting tankers from its shadow fleet in the narrow passage of the Gulf of Finland. There is military escort and the presence of armed forces. This is a completely new development.”

Airspace breach confirmed near Finland’s Porvoo

The Finnish Defense Ministry reported on 23 May that two Russian military aircraft violated Finland’s airspace near the city of Porvoo. This breach adds to a recent series of aggressive incidents at sea and in the air.

According to YLE, MTV Uutiset also reported a rise in Russian military traffic in the Gulf of Finland, citing naval sources. This comes as further confirmation of escalating regional tensions.

Last week, an incident occurred involving a vessel linked to the Russian shadow fleet that failed to comply with directives from Estonian authorities. At the same time, a Russian fighter jet was observed in the vicinity.

Russia is also significantly increasing its military presence near Finland’s eastern frontier. Recent images aired on Swedish television from Kamyanka, Severomorsk, and Petrozavodsk show what appear to be large-scale deployments. 

Finland says situation remains stable

Despite the growing Russian military activity, Häkkänen stressed there is no immediate threat to Finland.

“I don’t see any direct threat to Finland. But Russia is strengthening its military capabilities and is an aggressive and dangerous neighbor to all of Europe, that’s clear,” he said.