The Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps is mopping up the last Russian positions in a 40-square-kilometer salient north of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, winning a two-month battle that could free up hundreds—possibly thousands—of troops. Meanwhile, Pokrovsk itself is falling to Russian infiltrators after a yearlong siege, and 100 kilometers south, Russia's 90th Tank Division is advancing across open terrain toward the logistics hub of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The victories north of Pokrovsk create a brutal dilemma: Ukrainian commanders can use these freed-up troops to buttress the new defensive line forming north of the fallen city—or rush them 100 kilometers south to Huliaipole, where Russia's 90th Tank Division is advancing across open terrain toward Zaporizhzhia.

Outnumbered five-to-one, they don't have enough troops to do both.

Ukrainian forces gain ground north of Pokrovsk

Counterattacks by the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps since mid-August have steadily reduced a 40-square-kilometer salient that the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade had carved out of the front line north of Pokrovsk a few weeks earlier. The salient bent toward the village of Dobropillia, which sits astride one of the main supply lines into Pokrovsk.

Liberating the village of Kucheriv Yar late last month and defending the nearby village of Shakhove from repeated Russian mechanized assaults, Ukrainian forces have the momentum in the salient battle. Now they're killing, capturing, or forcing out the last few Russians.

The armed forces of Ukraine "are continuing to mop-up the Dobropillia salient, successfully recapturing several positions around the village of Shakhove," the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team reported last week. "These successes may allow Ukrainian reserves to be redeployed from this sector to strengthen the Pokrovsk direction."

In other words, Russian commanders may have viewed the Dobropillia salient as a "counter-fixation axis for Ukrainian reserves," according to military theorist Delwin. The Russians devoted just enough troops and vehicles to the salient battle to keep the 1st Azov Corps fixated on fighting north of Pokrovsk—so the corps wouldn't shift its attention to Pokrovsk proper.

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Pokrovsk likely lost despite northern gains

The problem, however, is that the Russians have the momentum in Pokrovsk—and it may be impossible for the Ukrainians, outnumbered five to one, to seize it from them. "Russian forces will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad," the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. concluded Tuesday.

The Russians succeeded in infiltrating Pokrovsk following a brutal yearlong siege in part because the salient battle drew the 1st Azov Corps into fighting north of Pokrovsk—keeping it from fighting in Pokrovsk, which was garrisoned by two exhausted Ukrainian units. The 68th Jaeger Brigade and 155th Mechanized Brigade began retreating north in late October.

Now that the 1st Azov Corps is on the verge of winning the salient fight, it's probably too late to do much for Pokrovsk. A few elite Ukrainian units, including one commando team that helicoptered into the city on 29 October, are clinging to fighting positions on the northern edge of Pokrovsk, holding open a narrow escape route for any Ukrainian troops still attempting to flee that city or neighboring Myrnohrad.

Pokrovsk, a once-thriving mining city of 60,000 people, is almost certainly lost—as is smaller Myrnohrad. The Ukrainian forces romping to victory in the disappearing Dobropillia salient may end up staying in the area, buttressing a new defensive line north of Pokrovsk.

Southern front threatens Huliaipole logistics hub

Or they may head south to the junction of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, where a powerful force led by the Russian army's biggest division, the 90th Tank Division, has been steadily advancing across unfortified open terrain, pushing back an outgunned and outnumbered Ukrainian force.

"Unfortunately, over the past few weeks, Russian forces have made a series of gains toward Huliaipole and, more broadly, achieved notable advances in the southeastern sector," explained Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight analysis group.

Reinforcements could stiffen Ukrainian defenses around Huliaipole. But Ukrainian commanders must choose carefully where they send their precious few reserves.

Their choice to fight so hard over the Dobropillia salient may have hastened Pokrovsk's fall. Likewise, rushing troops south to Huliaipole could weaken the new defensive line forming north of Pokrovsk.

At the same time, stiffening that defensive line at the expense of Huliaipole could accelerate Russian gains in the south. As long as Russia has more troops than Ukraine has, there are no easy choices for infantry-starved Ukrainian commanders.

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The yearlong siege of Pokrovsk is coming to an end. At the same time, the three-month battle for the Dobropillia salient, a few kilometers north of Pokrovsk, is also coming to an end.

It may not be a coincidence. It's possible the Russians have fought just hard enough around Dobropillia to tie down Ukrainian reserves who otherwise might have rushed south and reinforced Pokrovsk.

In other words, Russian commanders may have viewed the Dobropillia salient as a "counter-fixation axis for Ukrainian reserves," according to military theorist Delwin. The tactic—known as a counter-fixation axis—works by threatening a secondary objective to pin down enemy reserves, preventing them from reinforcing the primary target. The Russians may have committed just enough forces to the salient battle, primarily from a quintet of marine brigades and regiments, to keep the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps busy ... and keep it out of Pokrovsk.

Delwin's theory makes some sense, and could serve as a warning for Ukrainian commanders as the Ukrainian garrisons retreat from Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad and the campaign for Donetsk Oblast enters a new phase. That warning is simple: expect deception and diversion.

The Russian breakthrough toward Dobropillia

When the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade discovered gaps in the undermanned Ukrainian line north of Pokrovsk and swiftly marched 15 km toward the village of Dobropillia back in early August, they initially aimed to gain fire control over the village—and pummel it with drones and artillery.

And for good reason: one of the two main supply lines into Pokrovsk threaded through Dobropillia. Severing that supply line could've accelerated the starvation of the two Ukrainian brigades in the Pokrovsk garrison.

But the Ukrainians reacted swiftly, deploying the 1st Azov Corps and several of its well-equipped brigades. The Ukrainians squeezed the 40-square-kilometer salient from both sides, forcing the Russians away from Dobropillia proper and surrounding them in at least two groups, including one in the village of Kucheriv Yar.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian 225th Assault Regiment and 33rd Mechanized Brigade established a strong defense in the village of Shakhove, which anchored the southeastern corner of the salient. The defenders of Shakhove rebuffed repeated Russian mechanized assaults, preventing heavy Russian reinforcements from entering the salient.

Erasing the salient

In late October, the Ukrainian 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion liberated Kucheriv Yar, taking Russian prisoners and eliminating around half of the salient. North of Pokrovsk, the momentum was on the Ukrainians' side as they eliminated the two-month-old incursion and straightened their line.

Farther south in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia, however, the Russians had the momentum.

Russian regiments failed to captured Dobropillia, but they still managed to put pressure on the supply lines into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad by pushing drone teams as close as possible to the front line.

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The strategic gamble: trading Dobropillia pressure for Pokrovsk penetration

Russian infiltrators slipped into Pokrovsk from the south, suffering enormous casualties but managing, slowly yet steadily, to accumulate enough forces inside Pokrovsk to destabilize the increasingly outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian garrison.

When the Ukrainian Tymur Special Unit staged a daring helicopter assault into Pokrovsk on 29 October, it wasn't a sign the Ukrainians were winning in the city. Quite the opposite.

The Tymur commandos were part of a wider Ukrainian effort to hold a few key fighting positions in northern Pokrovsk—and keep open an escape route for the last survivors of the city's garrison.

"The battle for the city is coming to an end," observer Thorkill concluded on Wednesday.

We may never know how much longer the city may have held if the Russians hadn't occupied the 1st Azov Corps in a long battle around Dobropillia. But it surely helped the Russian strategy in Pokrovsk that the 1st Azov Corps never fought in the city itself.

The Russians' apparent plan worked. And it may have worked even better if, for example, those mechanized columns had been able to get past Shakhove and bolster the Dobropillia salient. A harder fight over the pocket could've drawn in even more Ukrainian units, further weakening defenses in and adjacent to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

"Overall, Russian commanders in charge of the operation cannot be overly praised," Delwin wrote, "as they should have exploited this further."

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Ukrainian commandos rush into Pokrovsk to hold escape corridor open for fleeing garrison

Under the cover of rain and clouds, no fewer than 29 Russian vehicles attacked Ukrainian positions northeast of the fortress city of Pokrovsk on Monday morning.

A clutch of Ukrainian brigades, including the 33rd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades, assisted by the 1st Azov Corps and the Unmanned Systems Forces, knocked out more than half of the vehicles with mines, drones, and artillery, and scattered the infantry who managed to dismount.

Losing half of a battalion-size assault group would be catastrophic for any other military. For the Russian military, it may actually represent a victory of sorts. It's possible enough infantry survived the assault to find covered positions and create a lodgement for eventual reinforcements.

If those reinforcements arrive in time, the Russians may be able to consolidate their new positions and create opportunities for future advances. "The levels of success from this attack will become clearer in the coming days," AMK Mapping noted.

The Monday assault, apparently involved some of the five Russian marine brigades and regiments that rushed toward Pokrovsk this summer, was "one of the most massive in recent times," the 1st Azov Corps reported.

The assault targeted Ukrainian positions northeast of Pokrovsk, where the Russians are struggling to hold onto a salient they carved out of Ukrainian lines in August. That salient, bending northwest toward the village of Dobropillia, is—or was, until recent Ukrainian counterattacks—Russia's best chance to encircle Pokrovsk from the north.

If—or when—Pokrovsk falls, the Russian Center Grouping of Forces will have a clearer path toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last major free cities in Donetsk Oblast.

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Too many turtles

Notably, according to the 1st Azov Corps, there was an unusually large number of up-armored "turtle tanks" among the 29 Russian vehicles that rolled out on Monday.

Tanks often lead Russian mechanized assaults, absorbing first-person-view drones with their add-on armor, clearing mines with their front-mounted rollers, and firing their cannons to suppress Ukrainian troops.

"The enemy tried to complicate the actions of the defense forces of Ukraine by advancing the equipment in small groups—four to five units—along different routes and at different times," the 1st Azov Corps stated. "The invaders also counted on adverse weather conditions, which would complicate the work of drones. Despite this, their plan was thwarted."

Fifteen of the 29 vehicles were immobilized, according to the 1st Azov Corps.

But perhaps thanks to the large proportion of tanks in the assault, 14 vehicles weren't immobilized—and may have dropped off their infantry passengers in new positions.

It's possible the tanks ate so many drones that there weren't enough drones left over to hit the other armored vehicles trailing behind the tanks, as well as the infantry they landed.

"The clearing of the enemy infantry landing sites continues," the 1st Azov Corps reported.

But if Ukrainian drones and counter-assaults can't clear out these infantry, it could become a problem for the Ukrainian defense north of Pokrovsk.

Experts warned something like this could happen.

“For those mocking armored vehicles and specially turtle tanks and thinking drones are a wunderwaffe that have rendered armor obsolete, take a look at the sheer amount of FPVs that are required to destroy a well-up-armored tank,” analyst Jompy wrote.

There are recent examples of Russian turtle tanks shrugging off dozens of drones before succumbing.

“It’s not about how many dollars a tank costs versus a drone,” Jompy added. “It’s about how many targets drone-intensive defenses can take out before being overwhelmed.”

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