An invitation for Ukraine to become a member of NATO "is not on the agenda" of the upcoming summit in The Hague, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in an interview with the Baltic News Service published on June 18.

"This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves," Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.

"There is no such expectation that there will be breakthrough decisions, neither before the Washington summit nor now before the Hague summit – it is not on the agenda."

The comments, coming less than a week before the summit, hint at a shifting rhetoric within the alliance regarding Ukraine's potential membership after U.S. President Donald Trump took office.

The new Trump administration has spoken out against Kyiv's accession, and the U.S. president even echoed the false Russian narratives that its efforts to join NATO helped instigate Russia's full-scale invasion.

Unlike during the previous summits, the final communique may reportedly completely omit the topic of Ukraine's membership, as NATO members seek to avoid a conflict with Trump. The gathering was also preceded by rumors that Ukraine may not be invited due to U.S. opposition, but the invitation was extended in the end.

In spite of these tensions, Budrys said that the summit should keep its focus on Ukraine, stressing that the war-torn country is part of the Euro-Atlantic security space.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale Russian invasion. The alliance has signaled support for Kyiv's accession efforts in previous years, even declaring at the Washington summit in 2024 that Ukraine's path to membership is "irreversible" — but stopping short of a formal invite.

Kyiv's swift entry seems increasingly unlikely amid opposition from the U.S. and several other members, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently reaffirmed that a political commitment to Ukraine's membership stands. Ukraine would need support from all 32 members to join.

It remains uncertain whether The Hague summit will lead to any breakthroughs regarding Ukraine. Following signals that U.S. President Donald Trump may not attend the event, the Guardian reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky may skip the summit as well.

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The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Russia is exploiting automatic medical exemptions in EU sanctions regulations to import dual-use goods for its military, Lithuania's Deputy Foreign Minister Gabija Grigaite-Daugirde told Bloomberg on June 12.

According to Grigaite-Daugirde, Lithuanian customs authorities blocked 28,854 goods in 2024 that were allegedly destined for Russia and Belarus "under the guise of medical exemption."

Many of the flagged shipments contained parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copiers, and microelectronics — all of which can have military applications.

"We have witnessed parts for motor vehicles, refrigerators, copying machines, and other types of microelectronics being exported directly to Russia, claiming that these are bound for medical use," she said.

Under current EU rules, medical exemptions are automatically granted, leaving customs authorities to investigate the shipments retroactively. Lithuania has called for reforms allowing exporters to apply for exemptions before shipments are approved.

"Leaving automatic exemptions from sanctions for medical goods is like closing a door but leaving a keyhole," Grigaite-Daugirde said. "Russia definitely finds a way to pass."

As Moscow shifts to a wartime economy and seeks Western-made technology for its arms production, its efforts to circumvent sanctions have grown "desperate," she added.

Lithuania, a key EU and NATO member bordering both Belarus and Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, has taken a hardline stance on enforcement and regularly pushes for tougher sanctions within the bloc.

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Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated during a 9 June briefing in Kyiv that existing EU sanctions cover just 40% of Russia’s capabilities, calling for significantly stronger measures and expanded coordination with the United States.

Current sanctions insufficient

Speaking alongside Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Budrys criticized the current state of European sanctions targeting Russia, asserting that Europe cannot claim it has exhausted all possible measures.

“Only 40% of Russia’s capacity is under sanctions. We cannot afford to say that we have done everything possible in terms of sanctions. No, we have not,” Budrys said.

18th EU sanctions package in progress

According to Budrys, the European Union has already begun work on its 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions. This new round aims to cover sectors of the Russian economy that remain untouched by previous restrictions.

Budrys emphasized that the upcoming sanctions are expected to include personal restrictions on top managers within Russian corporations, as well as new limitations on Russian exports.

The Lithuanian foreign minister underscored the need for the EU to synchronize its efforts with the United States, reinforcing the necessity of united transatlantic pressure on Russia.

The parliamentary foreign affairs committees of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania issued a joint statement on June 6, affirming their firm support for Ukraine both in its defense against Russia and in its pursuit of EU and NATO membership.

Following their meeting in Lithuania on June 6, the Baltic states reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s EU integration, stating their goal of concluding accession talks and welcoming Ukraine as a full EU member by Jan. 1, 2030.

Ukraine applied for EU membership in 2022 and was granted candidate status within months. Accession talks began in June 2024, with European leaders setting 2030 as a target for Ukraine's potential accession.

Despite broad EU support for Ukraine's accession, Hungary remains a major obstacle. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced on March 7 that his government would conduct an opinion survey on Ukraine's potential EU membership.

In their statement, the Baltic states also urged the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague to take "concrete political steps" toward Ukraine’s membership in the alliance. They argued that Ukraine's NATO accession would “consolidate a just and lasting peace not only in Ukraine but also in all of Europe" and help uphold the rules-based international order globally.

"Ukraine’s NATO membership would provide a more effective and enduring framework for safeguarding Euro-Atlantic security," the statement reads.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale war. The country has not received a formal invitation, as the 32 members have not reached a consensus.

The statement also reaffirmed the Baltic countries’ pledge to support Ukraine “until its full victory,” and welcomed expanding defense cooperation between Ukraine and like-minded partners. It encouraged inviting Ukraine to join the U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), calling it a meaningful step toward deeper regional security integration.

"We call upon the Foreign Affairs Committees of other national parliaments, international parliamentary assemblies, governments, and responsible institutions to endorse this statement and to adopt corresponding actions that would ensure continued and determined support for Ukraine’s victory, reconstruction, and full integration into the Euro-Atlantic community," the statement read.

Nordics, Baltics urge concrete steps toward Ukraine’s EU membership

In a joint letter, the foreign ministers of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia called on Brussels to put forward “concrete proposals on how to decisively advance Ukraine’s accession process.”

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

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Ukraine’s 18-month covert Spiderweb operation claimed 41 destroyed or damaged Russian aircraft used for strikes on civilians. Ukraine’s Security Service head Vasyl Maliuk called the operation “extremely complex from a logistical standpoint” due to the three-time-zone coordination and revealed that it was overseen by the Ukrainian president.

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Read our earlier daily review here.

Allies confirm that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible at the Vilnius summit. At the Bucharest Nine and Northern European summit in Vilnius on 2 June, Ukraine’s partners reaffirmed that the country is firmly on course to join NATO and approved new aid packages, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.

The Bucharest Nine format includes Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Northern European nations Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Finland, and Sweden joined the group.

The summit aimed to align security positions, boost cooperation along NATO’s eastern flank, and discuss support for Ukraine ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague, UkrInform reports. 

President Zelenskyy briefed the participants of the Vilnius summit on the Security Service of Ukraine’s Web operation, calling it a demonstration of what modern warfare looks like and the importance of technological superiority.

Earlier, Swedish politician and former Prime Minister Carl Bildt, referring to this operation, said that even 007 movies haven’t imagined something like this. 

Russia cannot produce new Tu-160s or Tu-95s — only repair Soviet-era ones, says expert after Ukraine’s historic Spiderweb operation

The Bucharest Nine and Northern European countries pledged continued political, military, economic, and humanitarian support to Ukraine in pursuit of a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace.

The summit declaration also emphasized that the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague must demonstrate the Alliance’s unwavering support and commitment to Ukraine.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed that all 32 NATO allies in Washington reaffirmed Ukraine’s irreversible path to membership, though no timeline has been set.

He added that Russia remains a long-term threat to NATO, rapidly building its military potential and working closely with China, North Korea, and Iran. To address these threats now and in the next 3, 5, or 7 years, NATO allies must increase defense spending and strengthen the defense industry.

The declaration adopted at the summit also condemns any form of support for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, calling for an end to all aid enabling it from China, Iran, and North Korea. 

Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.

He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.

This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.

Questioning the sovereignty of nations

Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.

Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.

Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.

The return of a dangerous word: “denazification”

The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.

Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.

NATO’s Achilles heel

From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.

Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.

Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.

Russia’s Baltic fleet faces a NATO wall

At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.

Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.

These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.

No longer just words

Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.

These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.

Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.

Russia repeats Ukraine’s playbook

The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.

What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.

The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.

Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.

The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.

For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Vilnius on June 2 to participate in a summit of the Bucharest Nine (B9) and the Nordic countries, Zelensky's spokesperson Serhii Nykyforov confirmed for Ukrinform.

The summit is hosted by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and will also be attended by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has already arrived, according to Reuters.

The summit is taking place the same day as the second round of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in Istanbul.

The Vilnius gathering will include leaders from the Baltic countries, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania. The summit will focus on preparations for the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague later in June and on allied support for Ukraine.

The Hague meeting, which will take place on June 24 and 25, will be the first annual NATO summit since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

The alliance faces uncertainty about continued U.S. commitment to NATO as the new administration has signaled plans to reduce its military deployment in Europe.

Trump has also been reluctant to provide new defense aid for Ukraine as he seeks to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow. Trump's views on Ukraine prompted speculations that Zelensky may not be invited to the summit, or that Ukraine's participation may be scaled down in some way.

Ukrainian delegates arrive in Istanbul for next round of peace talks with Russia

The negotiations follow the first round of Istanbul talks, which concluded on May 16 with an agreement on the largest prisoner exchange of the war but without any progress toward a peace deal.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Former CIA director David Petraeus warned that Russia will invade a NATO country if it succeeds in Ukraine, Daily Mail reported on 29 May. 

Lithuania would be the most likely target, according to Petraeus.

Russia’s next target after Ukraine

Speaking at Policy Exchange in London, Petraeus warned Russia could test Western resolve through a Lithuanian incursion.

“Once that’s done, you are going to see them focus on one of the Baltic states,” Petraeus said. “Lithuania has featured prominently in his speeches and we should have listened a lot more.”

The former general said Russia wants to topple President Zelenskyy and “install a puppet leader and to control all of Ukraine.”

Russia has suffered nearly a million battlefield casualties including 500,000 killed or unfit for duty. Petraeus called the losses “unimaginable.”

US policy criticized

Petraeus criticized delayed weapons deliveries: “The US also temporised far too long over individual decisions such as M1 tanks. A blind man on a dark night could see it had to be the F-16.”

Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg said Ukraine NATO membership is “not on the table” and called Russian expansion concerns “fair.”

European Union support intended for Ukrainian war refugees in Lithuania went to citizens of hostile states, LRT Radio reported on 28 May.

More than one million euros ($1,1 mn) in aid will have to be returned from the budget.

The Ministry of Social Security and Labor has already started an internal audit. The European Social Fund Agency (ESFA), which supervised the project, dismissed its director. The agency claimed that the regulations at the time allowed aid to be given to non-Ukrainians.

Ukrainian war refugees in Lithuania receive support including food, hygiene products, medicines, and legal services. They are also taught Lithuanian language and receive subsidized employment assistance.

The European Union supports Ukrainian integration in member countries when Russia its full-scale invasion. In 2022-2023, the EU provided almost 17 million euros ($19 mn) for the project “Support for war refugees from Ukraine.”

However, it emerged that aid intended for Ukrainians also went to citizens of Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and other countries who have residence permits in Lithuania. Citizens of 43 countries in total received such support. They attended Lithuanian language courses and received subsidized employment.

The European Social Fund Agency supervised the “Support for war refugees from Ukraine” project. The state is the founder of this agency, which administers EU investments in Lithuania.

The Employment Service implemented the project. Refugees were employed in companies, and employers received subsidies for this.

Over $1,1 mn spent on non-Ukrainians will have to be returned. The State Audit Office found that hundreds of arrivals could not receive such support.

According to LRT Radio sources, the fact that aid went to Russian and Belarusian citizens caused fury in government corridors. On 13 May, the agency announced that director Lina Nevinskienė was replaced. Audronė Ališauskienė was appointed as interim director.

“We evaluate this badly. This should not have happened. An internal audit is underway, we are finding out how this could have happened,” Social Security and Labor Vice Minister Rita Grigalienė told LRT Radio. The ministry is a shareholder of the agency.

The State Audit Office says it found that aid was provided to 813 people who are not even Ukrainian citizens.

“We established that 813 people do not meet this target group (Ukrainian war refugees). Among them are Russian citizens. Therefore, we said that it would be inappropriate for the European Commission to finance such expenses,” State Audit Office EU Investment Audit Department head Rasa Virganavičienė told LRT.

Members of the Seimo Audit Committee were briefed on the audit findings last week.

The agency itself rejects criticism and says that the regulations at the time allowed aid to be given to non-Ukrainian citizens.

“The situation arose when evaluating all documents valid at that time. When evaluating documents for additional activities – Lithuanian language teaching and employment subsidies – socially vulnerable persons not necessarily from Ukraine could participate,” ESFA Project Development Department head Jolita Petraitienė told LRT Radio.

These people had the right to live in Lithuania.

The State Audit Office explained that according to the project contract, only Ukrainian citizens could receive aid.

The agency claimed that the number of inappropriate participants is not 813 as the State Audit Office found, but 484.

Nevertheless, the Lithuanian ministry confirmed that the project implementer will be obliged to return the funds within the specified deadline.

The Ministry of Social Security and Labor initiated its own investigation. According to her, they are finding out how this happened. “We are doing everything so that this does not happen again. This should not have happened, it should not have been this way,” she said.

Lithuania has demanded more than 200 million euros ($227 million) in compensation for the migration crisis caused by Belarus, Lithuanian broadcaster LRT reported on May 26.

The demand comes after Lithuania instituted legal proceedings against Belarus in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on May 19, alleging that Minsk is "facilitating, supporting, and enabling the smuggling of migrants" into Lithuania.

"The initial estimates of damages, estimated to be more than 200 million euros, are allocated only to resolve the crisis within the internal affairs system. The calculations will be revised," the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice said in a comment to Baltic News Service.

Since 2021, Vilnius has accused Minsk of orchestrating a surge in irregular migrant crossings into Lithuania in an effort to destabilize Ukraine's EU and NATO ally.

In its lawsuit, Lithuania claims that the damages incurred between 2021 and 2023 resulted from building a physical barrier, enhancing border surveillance systems, and deploying an unprecedented number of personnel to the border due to Belarus' actions.

According to the Ministry of Justice, if the court recognizes a direct link between Belarus's actions and the resulting damages in Lithuania, it could set a precedent, making it easier to establish responsibility in future cases.

Poland may also join the lawsuit, independent Belarusian outlet Euroradio reported on May 23. Poland’s Foreign Ministry confirmed it was aware of Lithuania’s initiative and shares the view that Belarus has violated international law.

Belarus, which has not yet responded to the proceedings initiated by Lithuania, is one of Russia's staunchest allies, and part of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched from its territory.

Despite raising the issue with Belarusian authorities, Vilnius says that Minsk has refused to cooperate to limit illegal migration.

Lithuania previously said in April 2023 that it has refused entry to 20,000 migrants from Belarus, although that number has significantly grown since. Vilnius previously demanded Minsk pay 120 million euros ($134 million) from Belarus for facilitating the mass crossings.

Lithuania borders Russia's Kaliningrad exclave to the southwest and Belarus to the east and south. Tensions between NATO and Moscow have escalated since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow has previously been accused of similar tactics, aimed at destabilizing NATO allies in the Baltics.

In response to Helsinki's accession into NATO, Finland has accused neighboring Russia of weaponizing migration by encouraging migrants from countries like Syria and Somalia to cross the border.

As Lithuania continues to strengthen its defenses along its borders with Belarus and Russia, the country announced on May 5 that it will invest 1.1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) over the next decade to install anti-tank mines in order to "block and slow" a possible invasion.

Western intelligence agencies have warned of a potential large-scale war in Europe within the next five years, citing Russia's increasingly aggressive posture.

If Germany sends Taurus missiles to Ukraine, Russia has a major Crimean Bridge problem

A statement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on May 26 about long-range strikes inside Russia resurrected a long-held hope in Ukraine — that Berlin is finally about to send Kyiv its Taurus missiles. “There are no longer any restrictions on the range of weapons delivered to Ukraine — neither by the U.

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post