Russia is likely attempting to force Ukraine to capitulate by spring 2027 through a large-scale campaign of long-range strikes, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its 27 September report. Russian President Vladimir Putin's new theory of victory relies heavily on the mass use of jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles against Ukraine, the institute assesses.

Russia keeps shifting to faster jet-powered drones that Ukraine's defenses struggle to stop, forcing it to spend scarce missiles on them. Russia's use of jet-powered drones rose eightfold from June to August, with Moscow launching around 7,700 such drones since their initial deployment, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on 23 September. But Putin likely does not expect the campaign to last indefinitely, and he may hold off on a new mobilization until he sees whether the strikes work, ISW assesses.

Putin's modified theory of victory

Putin's modified theory of victory largely depends on Russia's ability to mass-launch cheap jet-powered Gerans that get through Ukrainian defenses often enough, the institute notes.

Even a Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger claimed on 27 September that the Russian strategy, which relies heavily on long-range strikes, is costly and cannot continue indefinitely, not least because Ukraine is hitting Russia harder too, according to the analysis.

At the same time, Putin stated on 25 September that Ukraine "must feel" Russia's "retaliatory" strikes. ISW assesses that this suggests he intends to intensify Russia's strike campaign in winter, as he has in previous winters.

If Putin is counting on Ukraine to break and capitulate this winter, he may be ignoring what the campaign will cost Russia over time, the institute notes. This strategy also counts on Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptors against ballistic missiles, and on the country's power grid and other vital systems giving way under months of strikes.

Until that approach runs out, Putin is unlikely to back down on his demands or agree to real ceasefire talks, ISW assesses.

Ukrainian interceptors could disrupt Russia's plan

A Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger claimed on 27 September that Russian forces launched predominantly jet-powered Geran-5 drones at Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv during the night of 26–27 September. According to the blogger, Russia's diverse arsenal of strike weapons and Ukraine's shortage of air defense assets allow Russian forces to maintain the current pace of strikes and expand the range of targets, ISW writes in its analysis.

At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 26 September that Ukraine's interception rate for jet-powered Shahed drones currently stands at 55%. Of more than 2,730 such drones Russia had launched in September by then, Ukrainian forces had downed or suppressed more than 1,500, he added.

Ukraine is testing interceptor drone prototypes in combat conditions, Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov told Novyny.LIVE on 27 September. The mass deployment of interceptors capable of shooting down jet-powered Gerans could begin within several months, he added. Ukrainian companies have already successfully tested several interceptor drones capable of intercepting Russian jet-powered drones in field conditions, the institute notes.

At the same time, it remains unclear whether Ukraine will be able to scale up its interceptor program quickly enough and achieve sufficient success to disrupt the intensification of Russia's campaign during the winter, ISW notes.

Why Putin may hold off on a new mobilization

Expanding Russia's arsenal of strike weapons is cheaper than carrying out a second mobilization economically, militarily, and socially, a Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger cited by the institute claimed.

Putin may put off large-scale forced mobilization until he sees whether the strikes deliver, ISW assesses, though his officials have been laying the groundwork for it despite Kremlin denials. Still, the need to replace Russia's enormous battlefield losses could push him to order such a mobilization as early as this fall, ISW notes, as Ukrainian and other sources have repeatedly reported he is preparing to do.

Russia's low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation Rassvet went from a few minutes of connectivity over Ukraine to two stable windows lasting more than an hour each in just five months. The system was built by the Russian private company Bureau 1440 as Moscow's answer to Starlink.

As of now, it is nowhere near matching SpaceX's 10,000-satellite network—but the gap between what Russia has now and what it needs is closing, and the tools that could slow it down mostly sit unused. When Ukraine and SpaceX bricked Russian-obtained Starlink terminals earlier this year, Russian assaults froze across the front—proof that cutting satellite command-and-control links matters more than disrupting guidance. Russia is now building its own links. The most consequential tool that could slow that down is Western sanctions against Bureau 1440 itself.

Four years of Western sanctions have failed to cut Russia off from the foreign components its missile and drone factories rely on: parts manufactured after sanctions were imposed still reach Russian assembly lines within months. Rassvet is a new version of the same problem. The system is still being built and relies on imported components whose exact origin is disputed—some experts point to American and European parts reaching Russia through sanctions-evasion networks, others say the core hardware is built from off-the-shelf Chinese components. Its manufacturer remains unsanctioned by any Western government, while some of the infrastructure needed to expand production has already been struck by Ukraine.

Six minutes in March, two hours by August

In March 2026, Bureau 1440 launched its first operational batch of 16 Rassvet satellites from Plesetsk Cosmodrome. Each pass over Ukraine created a window of six to 10 minutes, Serhii Beskrestnov, callsign Flash, a Ukrainian presidential adviser on defense technology, estimated at the time.

By late August, the picture had changed. Tracking data from N2YO showed four passes a day and two stable communication windows lasting more than an hour each. Satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepanets said that 12 of the 16 satellites from the first batch had reached their operational altitude of 550 km, three were still ascending, and one had burned up—likely due to a manufacturing defect. A second batch of 16 went into orbit in July, though those satellites struggled to reach their target altitude and some may reenter the atmosphere.

The second batch may be climbing faster than the first did at the same stage. Still, Russia is far from the 200–250 satellites Beskrestnov considers necessary for stable, round-the-clock coverage, and the altitude of roughly 550 km is still short of the roughly 800 km the constellation is designed to reach.

What Rassvet would change on the battlefield

Russia is unlikely to have any civilian use in mind for these communication windows. The satellites transmit in the Ka and Ku bands—high-frequency signals that are difficult to jam and difficult to detect.

Right now, Ukraine's electronic warfare can push Russian drones offline: a Shahed flying low through a jammed zone loses its link and drifts off course. A satellite relay overhead would change that. The drone holds its course, receives updated coordinates mid-flight, stays below radar, and strikes. The constellation could do this for long-range strike and naval drones alike—letting them operate through electronic warfare at very low altitudes, where Ukraine's air defenses struggle to see them.

Bureau 1440 has also developed user terminals small enough to fit on Geran-type attack drones and cruise missiles. Gerans have struck Ukrainian territory, including Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, almost continuously over the past month. A terminal on a Geran would turn a one-way munition into a weapon that can be redirected after launch. Unlike the Starlink terminals Ukraine relies on, which are geographically restricted, Russian terminals are expected to face no such limits—the same terminal that connects a Geran over Kyiv Oblast would work over Berlin or Paris.

The sanctions lever—and the gap in it

Rassvet's parent company, IKS Holding, is one of Russia's largest hardware and software developers. The US sanctioned the holding, its then-owner Anton Cherepennikov, and the subsidiaries Kryptonit and KNS Group on 24 February 2023. Cherepennikov died under unexplained circumstances, but the company keeps operating.

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) says the holding serves as a personnel reserve for the Federal Security Service (FSB). The first deputy CEO of IKS Holding is Boris Korolyov, son of FSB First Deputy Director Sergei Korolyov, according to the SZRU. He took the post at 27 in 2023, after Cherepennikov's death.

More importantly, though, is the company that actually builds the satellites—Bureau 1440—and its leadership. Ukraine has placed the company on its own sanctions list, but Kyiv's unilateral designations carry limited trade enforcement power, because these people and this company are absent from Western lists. At Euromaidan Press's request, the US-based research organization C4ADS confirmed that Bureau 1440 and its leadership sit outside every Western sanctions regime, and called designating the manufacturer the single most visible and effective step available.

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From the Ukrainian side, Viktoriia Vyshnivska, a senior analyst at the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), told Euromaidan Press that sanctions on Bureau 1440 are not a magic button—but they are not pointless, either. Because Bureau 1440 uses Western equipment, designating the company would directly affect trade in those boards and components, she said. Any Western manufacturer that kept doing business with the company would also risk investigation and legal consequences.

Given the reach of Russia's sanctions-evasion networks and its close ties with China in joint production and technology sharing.

"We shouldn't expect a magical effect," Vyshnivska said.

But sanctions would make direct trade impossible and raise the cost and difficulty of sourcing Western components.

Even if the useful window is short, making supplies more expensive and harder to find is the point.

Many of the goods Bureau 1440 uses are already banned from sale to Russia under EU export controls, Vyshnivska noted. Yet Bureau 1440 itself is still absent from the sanctions lists. Her recommendation: Bureau 1440, its current owners, its parent company, the key related entities and individuals, and its main suppliers should all be designated.

Diplomacy: Ukraine goes to the ITU

Beyond that, Ukraine is trying to act on its own on several fronts.

The first is diplomacy. On 28 August, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine had sent a formal note to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN agency that coordinates radio frequencies, demanding that Ukrainian territory be excluded from Rassvet's service areas across all frequency bands. The system's use over Ukraine "has nothing to do with civilian purposes," he wrote on X.

Days later, at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Ireland, Sybiha handed partners a list of nine legal entities linked to the project and urged them to impose sanctions.

The EU had already moved once: its 21st sanctions package, adopted on 23 July, targeted the Rassvet network. But the main gap is not closed, and that round stopped short of the manufacturer, leaving Bureau 1440 and its chief executive off the lists.

Hitting the supply chain with weapons

Another lever is direct strikes. In mid-August, Ukrainian-made Flamingo cruise missiles struck an industrial zone in Samara that houses the Progress Rocket Space Center—the only plant in Russia that serially assembles the Soyuz-2.1b rockets used to launch Rassvet into orbit. Satellite imagery published by the Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ showed a collapsed roof section 85 meters long and 35 meters wide over Building 106A, the hall where crews wire the rockets' control systems and cabling. The channel reported two missile hits on that hall.

If the hall was destroyed, production could stop entirely, and switching to other Russian launch vehicles would take significantly longer and add complexity. Drones also attempted to strike Plesetsk Cosmodrome, from which both 2026 batches were launched.

Both targets—the factory that builds the rockets and the site that launches them—are needed if Russia is to expand Rassvet production.

The timeline: 5.5 to eight years, if nothing changes

Russia plans to expand the constellation to 292 satellites by the end of 2027, Deputy Chief of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) Vadym Skibitskyi said. Moscow's longer-term goal is 924 satellites by 2035.

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With 32 satellites already launched in two batches, 260 more are needed. At 16 satellites per launch, that requires roughly 17 launches. At a four-month interval between launches, deploying them would take roughly 5.5 years even if every launch succeeded and every satellite reached its target orbit. That most likely won't fully work out: one satellite from the first batch is already lost, two from the second batch may be lost as well, and none of them has yet reached the required altitude.

Russia also depends on the scarce Soyuz-2.1b rocket. The rocket has averaged only six to eight launches per year since 2022—most committed to GLONASS navigation satellites, ISS resupply, and military payloads—limiting Russia to a theoretical maximum of roughly two Rassvet-dedicated launches per year, or 128 Rassvet satellites over four years at that rate.

There is still time to shut this project down or slow it. Vyshnivska put the useful window to slow Rassvet at about a year. Russia, by Ukrainian calculations, needs five to eight years to see it through.

Ukraine's defense forces intercepted 55% of Russia's jet-propelled drones in September—more than 1,500 out of over 2,730 launched—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his 26 September evening address.

Russia's full-scale aerial campaign has shifted from propeller-driven Shaheds Ukraine learned to shoot down at over 90% to jet-propelled models that fly faster, resist jamming, and often slip past existing defenses.

55% and climbing

Zelenskyy said military intelligence had briefed him on Russian weapons production—not just jet Shaheds but other technological systems. The documents detail what Moscow is preparing for next year: the volumes and the financing. "We are preparing our countermeasures, and for every line item there must be a Ukrainian answer," he said.

Several effective interceptor prototypes are already in combat.

"Interceptors have been identified that can become the main tool of our defense. Production, components—all of this we are scaling up. There will be an answer," Zelenskyy said.

The goal is to match the interception rate for regular propeller-driven Shaheds, which exceeds 90%. At 55%, the jet-drone rate is climbing but still leaves nearly half reaching their targets.

$12 billion for one category

Russia plans to spend $12 billion in 2027 on jet drones and loitering munitions alone, Zelenskyy said. "This concerns not only Ukraine and not only us," he added, warning that multiple intelligence agencies have information Russia wants to expand its war to other countries and regions.

He said this is why Ukraine is pushing for stronger sanctions and the Drone Deal format. Ukraine has signed 11 such agreements, the latest with Finland at the UN General Assembly this week, and is preparing a 12th with what Zelenskyy called "a strong country."

The warning came as Russia struck a Kyiv data center twice on the morning of 27 September, injuring three people including two children, Zelenskyy wrote. Overnight strikes killed three people in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and one man in Kyiv.

In total this week, Russia launched more than 2,200 strike drones, roughly 1,650 aerial bombs, and 38 missiles—a significant share of them ballistic—at Ukraine, he said.

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Jet drones are now Russia's main aerial weapon

Russia's jet-propelled Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones have become the dominant threat in Russia's aerial campaign against Ukrainian cities. By August, production of jet Geran-4/5 models exceeded that of propeller-driven Geran-2s, according to Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR). Russian factories produce roughly 3,000 jet models per month alongside about 2,800 of the older type. The Geran-5 is technically a drone but functions as a small cruise missile—faster, harder to jam, and increasingly guided by AI and mesh networking that complicate interception.

Ukraine's answer has been interceptor drones—cheap, fast enough to chase a Geran, and guided by machine vision. A Ukrainian interceptor recently scored its first kills against jet Gerans and is heading into mass production, though a presidential adviser warned that speed alone cannot catch them—machine vision and automatic guidance decide the chase.

Ukraine has destroyed a record 76 Russian air-defense systems this month, and September is not over. The tally beats a record that had stood since July 2023 and reflects a systematic Ukrainian campaign to hunt down Russia's air defenses, opening the skies over occupied territory and inside Russia, the analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said on Telegram.

Ukraine is methodically peeling apart Russia's layered air defense, and September has been its worst month yet: 76 systems destroyed, past the 73 lost in July 2023, by Kovalenko's count, with days still to go.

It is part of a campaign in which Ukrainian drones and special forces have hunted Russian radars and missile launchers across occupied territory and Crimea, and each one destroyed opens a corridor for the next strike.

The record falls with days to spare

Kovalenko credited Ukraine's Defense Forces' sustained hunt for Russian anti-air, which he said pays off twice: it clears the defenses that would otherwise stop Ukraine's strikes, making later attacks on occupied territory and on Russia itself more effective.

Each kill opens a corridor

Ukrainian drone and special-operations units have picked off Pantsir, Tor, Buk, and pieces of S-300 and S-400 systems across occupied territory and Crimea, sometimes several in a single night throughout 2026.

As Russia pulls its scarce long-range systems back to guard Moscow, fewer are left to cover occupied Ukraine, widening the openings for the next wave of Ukrainian strikes.

Russia cannot replace the losses

Over the full-scale war, Kovalenko said, Russia has lost more than 1,673 air-defense systems of every kind, from radars to surface-to-air missiles and self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.

That, he argued, is a level Moscow can no longer make good with a defense industry already stretched thin by the war.

"Such a quantity of equipment Russia will never be able to restore and compensate," he thinks.

He added that this means it would no longer be able to return to the pre-war level of closing the sky, neither technically nor technologically."

Last winter, eight Ukrainian companies told the defense minister that their interceptors were ready to knock Russia's jet-powered drones out of the sky. They were not. A fast-flying drone is the easy part of the design, while combat testing exposed what the interceptors lacked in key features to chase an evading jet-powered Geran, presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov, known as Flash, said in an interview with NV.

Ukraine's answer to Russia's fast, hard-to-stop jet drones was supposed to be cheap interceptors, and last winter, their makers said they had them. But a jet Geran flies 450 to 500 kilometers an hour, up from the Geran-3's 320, varies its speed to slip past defenses, and will dodge harder once interceptors appear.

Catching one takes maneuverability, machine-vision target-lock, and fuel to loiter and search, not just speed, Flash said. Ukraine's cheap interceptors have already downed about half of Russia's slower drones, but the jet-powered systems have stayed a step ahead.

Eight makers said "ready"

At a meeting last winter called by Mykhailo Fedorov, then-defense minister, all eight interceptor makers reported the same thing: "everything's ready, the solution exists, it flies, we tested it, speed is sufficient," Flash recalled.

The mistake, he said, was that no one checked on them week to week. There were also too few jet Gerans in the skies then to test against.

"On the range, they showed: it flies. That was the problem," explained Flash.

Speed is the easy part

The engines are not the obstacle, Flash continues, since they can be bought abroad, and neither is a plane that flies fast in a straight line. The hard part is a machine agile enough to chase a jet-powered Geran, which is far more maneuverable than the propeller kind and will start changing altitude and throwing evasive maneuvers once interceptors appear.

Because an operator's aim frays at such speeds, he said, the decisive pieces are automatic target capture by machine vision and automatic terminal guidance.

"Building a construction that just flies fast is the easiest part," he added.

Mass orders must wait

That is why Ukraine cannot simply order thousands to blanket the country, Flash said: it first needs a proven design that works for any crew, from Security Service specialists to territorial defense soldiers, and is simple to launch, operate, and maintain.

Once such a sample exists, he said, scaling up is only a question of money. Meanwhile, the work is moving: a Ukrainian interceptor recently notched its first kills against jet Gerans and is heading toward mass production.

French President Emmanuel Macron said French services received no CIA warning about a possible Russian drone attack from Mediterranean merchant ships, pushing back on an El Mundo report that US intelligence had alerted France, Italy, and Spain, RTL reported.

Macron’s denial comes amid drone attacks and sabotage cases that European governments have linked to Russia. France is preparing stronger defenses against that wider threat, even as Macron says its services received no specific CIA warning. Italy’s defense minister has also cautioned against fueling alarm over an unconfirmed report.

Asked about the report during a televised interview on 24 September, Macron said: “The CIA did not inform French services of such an attack.” He said Russia was multiplying hostile and sometimes criminal acts against European countries. Covert acts such as sabotage and cyberattacks are often described as hybrid warfare. Asked whether France itself could be attacked, Macron answered yes.

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto separately wrote on X that El Mundo’s alert “finds no confirmation.” He said it served no one to add “more fuel to the fire” at an already tense time.

The Spanish newspaper reported that the possible operation would use Gerbera drones, small Russian aircraft capable of carrying several kilograms of explosives. The drones would be hidden in shipping containers aboard merchant ships and launched toward targets along Europe’s southern coast. El Mundo cited a source close to Lithuania’s Defense Ministry, and analysts familiar with a CIA report said to have circulated among European foreign ministries. Euromaidan Press covered the account on 24 September. Bythe time of publication, neither Spain’s government nor the CIA had publicly addressed it.

Macron pointed to the failed attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany in August. A drone carrying explosives was found near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft. German officials attributed the attempt to Russia. Macron said France had not experienced a comparable incident.

The wider hybrid warfare threat

Beyond the disputed Mediterranean alert, authorities have investigated other incidents throughout Europe as possible Russian sabotage.

Germany followed its accusation over Leipzig with diplomatic measures against Moscow. Berlin ordered Russia’s last consulate in Germany closed and ended an agreement permitting a Russian cultural center. German investigators also identified two suspects, including a Russian man they linked to military intelligence. Moscow denied involvement.

Poland’s justice and interior ministers said Russian intelligence ordered the May 2024 arson of Warsaw’s Marywilska 44 shopping center.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Russia would continue such attacks to frighten Ukraine’s allies into reducing support. He urged vigilance without overreacting, saying Finnish intelligence saw no imminent military threat.

Ukrainian drone makers are getting another shot at a Pentagon contract, this time for bomber drones. Seventeen companies, including Ukrainian firms and Western partners fielding Ukrainian designs, will test bomber drones at Camp Grayling in Michigan in October, the next stage of the Pentagon's Drone Dominance program, Defender Media reported.

The Phase 2.5 Bomber Qualifier is the latest round of the Pentagon's drive to buy combat-tested drones at scale, and Ukrainian makers are again in the field, some through US-registered partners, because Pentagon rules bar direct sales from foreign firms.

This time, the target is bombers, the drones that drop munitions on what is below them.

Seventeen makers head to Michigan

The contest runs at Camp Grayling, a Michigan training range, and organizers call it the hardest and fastest-paced stage of the program yet. Each company must bring at least six fully built systems.

The testing splits into two parts: a Bomber Qualifier, which the makers conduct themselves, and a Bomber Gauntlet run by US soldiers. Organizers have not published details of a third mission. Winners of the wider program earn Pentagon supply contracts.

Ukrainian bombers make the list

The invited firms include UFORCE USA Services, Grim Tech, Gurzuf Defence, UA Defense Tech, Skycutter, and UDD Tech Corp. Which models they will bring is not yet clear.

UFORCE is known for its Nemesis bombers. Grim Tech showed a light bomber, the Grim-18, at the MSPO defense expo in Poland this month, and Gurzuf builds heavy bombers, including the Ayudag-6, which recently set a Ukrainian payload record for multirotor drones at 130 kilograms.

A second try after a US sweep

In the program's last phase, the Pentagon picked five winners in each of two categories, and all were American, though a Ukrainian firm had reached the second round and, by industry accounts, Ukrainian designs were incorporated into some Western entries. For Ukraine's makers, the bomber round is another chance to turn battlefield-proven hardware into a US contract.

France delivered additional MICA air-to-air missiles and 30mm cannon ammunition for Ukraine's Mirage 2000 fighter jets, Militarnyi reported, citing France's Armed Forces Ministry.

Delivering an aircraft is one step, keeping it armed is another. France's weapons resupply reflects a shift from one-off hardware transfers to sustained combat support as Russia's aerial campaign against Ukrainian cities grinds on.

What MICA does

The MICA, developed by MBDA, comes in two versions: radar-guided (MICA RF) and infrared (MICA IR). It weighs about 112 kg, flies at Mach 4.9—nearly five times the speed of sound—and can engage targets 60 to 80 km away.

Ukraine's Mirages have also carried older Magic 2 missiles limited to roughly 20 km. MICAs were reportedly included with the original donation, but the supply may have been limited, which would explain why the Magic 2s stayed in use. MICA triples to quadruples that engagement window, letting pilots intercept cruise missiles far earlier in their flight path. The fresh delivery keeps Ukraine's small fleet supplied with the missiles that make these longer-range interceptions possible.

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Cheap shells for cheap drones

The 30mm ammunition feeds the Mirage's two built-in DEFA 554 cannons, which fire at a selectable rate of 1,200 or 1,800 rounds per minute. A pilot who uses the gun on a Shahed drone saves a MICA for a target that actually needs one.

Ukraine's F-16 operations follow a similar logic: pilots use their 20mm Vulcan cannons alongside AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles, though Zelenskyy called the missile option expensive—used when nothing else can reach a jet drone, because "a human life is more important."

A Ukrainian Mirage 2000 shot down a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile during its very first combat mission, on 7 March 2025. France has delivered about a dozen modified Mirage 2000-5F jets since February 2025, and the fleet is still growing.

Several recent incidents across Europe were conducted by Russia or are likely attributable to Russia, ISW assessed in its 24 September report, though authorities have not officially linked the Polish and German incidents to Moscow.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has expanded into a parallel campaign of provocations against European defense and logistical infrastructure. The Kremlin is using drones, arson, and undersea cable sabotage to degrade Europe's will and ability to support Ukraine, while deliberately intensifying the frequency of airspace violations to erode the boundary between hybrid and kinetic war.

Drones over Moldova and Romania

Four Russian drones flew over Bukovyna and targeted an energy facility and border crossings with Moldova and Romania, Chernivtsi Oblast Military Administration head Ruslan Osypenko reported. Ukrainian forces shot down three. The fourth flew toward Suceava County in northeastern Romania.

A drone crashed in Cernița, Florești district, Moldova—preliminarily identified as a Russian Gerbera type, the first such device found in the country. It carried an onboard camera, hit a tree, and exploded, Moldovan police said. Romania's Defense Ministry reported a second aerial vehicle entered Romanian airspace for four minutes and crashed near Solca in the same border region; geolocated footage confirmed it was also a Gerbera, ISW noted. Poland evacuated the Hrubieszów and Dorohusk border crossings for 30 minutes, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. Three countries were put on alert by a single night of Russian strikes.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

Sabotage in Poland and Germany

A fire engulfed the power system and backup generator at a Starlink ground station in Wola Krobowska, central Poland, on the evening of 23 September. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski confirmed it was sabotage aimed at cutting internet access, including for Ukraine's military. Authorities have not identified who was responsible, but the act aligns with Russia's "new" doctrine of attacks, Gawkowski said. The station is now operating normally.

German authorities suspended operations at Berlin-Brandenburg airport for 45 minutes the same evening after staff reported a drone sighting, Die Zeit reported. Federal police could not confirm it. ISW assessed both incidents fit Russia's wider pattern of sabotage against European defense assets, though neither has been officially attributed to Russia.

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Western intelligence warnings

A Lithuanian Defense Ministry source reported on 23 September that Russia could launch Gerbera drones from a shipping container in the Mediterranean against Spain, France, and Italy. Danish Defense Intelligence assessed on 24 September that Russia will intensify its hybrid war in coming months, including destructive cyber attacks and sabotage carrying a high risk of casualties, and that there is a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military attack on a NATO border state. It sees no indications of an outright invasion. The CIA reportedly warned Poland that Russia may sabotage underwater cables to disrupt its banking system, according to Newsweek Polska journalists.

NATO tracked and confronted Russian submersibles rehearsing deployment of a new cable-disabling weapon near Svalbard in spring 2026—no cables were damaged, but the operation demonstrated Moscow's intent, Reuters reported. Shadow fleet vessels likely served as drone-launch platforms for incursions into NATO airspace, ISW noted.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

ISW said it has not yet seen evidence that Russia has conducted the attacks the warnings describe.

Denmark's assessment—that a limited Russian military strike on a NATO border state could come in the coming months—suggests the boundary between hybrid provocations and military action is narrower than European policy has assumed. ISW's synthesis reframes what governments have treated as separate incidents into one campaign.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

Moldova’s Defense Ministry reported four drone incursions, Romania’s Defense Ministry confirmed a drone crash, and Poland’s Operational Command scrambled fighters twice during Russia’s 24 September attack on Ukraine.

The strike wave forced Moldova to close part of its airspace, Romania to warn residents and launch F-16 fighter jets, and Poland to activate aircraft, air defenses, and radar. No casualties were reported in the two confirmed crashes, and Poland detected no incursion during its first deployment. Moldova has recorded dozens of Russian drone incursions this year.

The drones approached from Ukraine’s Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Chernivtsi oblasts, according to Moldova’s Defense Ministry. Authorities temporarily closed part of the country’s northern airspace.

Near Cernița in northern Moldova, one drone struck a tree, fell into a field beside a farm, and exploded, police said. No casualties were reported.

Investigators preliminarily identified the camera-equipped wreckage as a Gerbera, a low-cost Russian drone often used during attacks on Ukraine. Police said it was the first device of that type found in Moldova.

Police also reported a resident’s account of another explosion near Vadul Rașcov, but said they were still investigating the location.

Romanian radar first tracked an aerial target over Ukraine near the border before it entered northern Romania, the Defense Ministry said. Romania launched two F-16s and sent emergency alerts to residents’ phones in the area. The drone remained in Romanian airspace for about four minutes before crashing near Solca, the ministry said. Officials reported no casualties or damage and had not identified the drone’s origin.

Poland’s Operational Command launched fighters twice in response to Russian strikes on western Ukraine. The first Polish deployment ended around 08:00 with no airspace violation detected; the command announced a second at 09:07. It also activated ground-based air defenses and radar.

The incursions came amid a wider assault. Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia launched 282 drones of various types, along with ballistic and other missiles, overnight into 24 September. Ukrainian officials reported detecting four drones over Chernivtsi Oblast, the Ukrainian region bordering Moldova and Romania, and shooting down three.

Moldova’s repeated airspace breaches

The latest incident followed several breaches in August. An unidentified drone exploded near Crocmaz on 9 August. Another object exploded near Talmaza on 17 August after Moldova briefly closed part of its airspace.

President Maia Sandu said Russian drones had entered Moldovan airspace 39 times in 2026, compared with 17 times throughout 2025. Moldova has portable air-defense weapons and electronic warfare equipment, but Sandu said these chiefly protect individual sites. Her government is working with partners to expand air-defense coverage and speed up threat warnings.

US intelligence has warned Spain, France, and Italy that Russia may be preparing to launch drones at one of them from merchant ships in the Mediterranean, El Mundo reported on 23 September, citing sources familiar with the alert. Neither the CIA nor the three governments have confirmed it.

Russia has intensified a campaign of sabotage, airspace incursions, and other provocations against European states supporting Ukraine while keeping its actions below the threshold of open conflict with NATO. A maritime drone attack would extend that campaign into southern Europe, turning the Mediterranean into a launch zone for deniable strikes on civilian or military infrastructure.

El Mundo based its account on a source close to Lithuania's Defense Ministry and analysts familiar with a CIA report circulated among European foreign ministries. The reported plan would hide small Russian Gerbera drones inside shipping containers aboard merchant ships and launch them from the Mediterranean.

According to El Mundo, a Gerbera drone can travel up to 600 kilometers depending on payload and wind, potentially putting targets along NATO's southern coast within reach of a ship offshore.

The Gerbera drone's reported 4–5 kilogram explosive payload would be unlikely to destroy a large facility, the newspaper said, but could start a fire, damage exposed equipment, or temporarily close an airport or port.

All three countries hold elections in 2027 and have political forces capable of exploiting fear and fatigue with Ukraine, with connections to Kremlin interests especially visible in France and Italy, El Mundo reported. Keir Giles, a British defense analyst, said frontline states are not necessarily the targets—the target will be wherever Europe's weakest point is, naming the UK and Spain as countries that have not invested in air and missile defense adequate to the Russian threat.

El Mundo placed the warning alongside earlier Russian drone incidents on NATO territory. In September 2025, 19 unarmed drones strayed into Polish airspace. German authorities later attributed an explosive-carrying drone incident at Leipzig airport to Russia.

The war has reached Mediterranean shipping

Russia's oil shipments and naval presence, alongside reported Ukrainian operations, have brought the conflict into the region in several ways.

A source cited by Ukrainian media said Ukraine's Security Service struck a Russian shadow-fleet tanker there in December 2025. Such vessels carry Russian oil outside Western sanctions, making the sea a route for Moscow's war revenue and a target for Kyiv.

The French outlet RFI later reported that Ukraine may have established a drone launch site in Libya for strikes on Russian shipping. Kyiv has not confirmed the reported site.

Russia's military position in the region has also shifted. British intelligence assessed in January 2025 that its Mediterranean naval force lacked access to its Syrian base at Tartus after Bashar al-Assad's fall.

A year ago, 12 Ukrainian brigades could order their own weapons off a state marketplace. Now, more than 500 units can. DOT-Chain Defense, which lets frontline units order necessary supplies using state funds or bonuses with just a few clicks, has scaled across most of Ukraine's Defense Forces, the Defense Ministry said.

The platform is the delivery backbone of Ukraine's soldier-led procurement revolution. It lies in a shift in the philosophy of defense procurement. Ukraine is abandoning the Soviet principle of "fight with whatever is handed down from above" and transitioning to a market-based model that centers on the choice of the individual soldier.

Over its first year, it has put more than 1.3 million drones and other systems into units' hands, worth about $1.9 billion, and the orders show what this war runs on: 84 percent are drones, with electronic-warfare gear and ground robots making up most of the rest. It is also the engine behind the points-for-kills system that lets units bank credit for battlefield results and spend it on their own equipment.

Access jumps from 12 to 500 units

The growth has been steep. DOT-Chain Defense is now used by combat units across the armed forces, the National Guard, the border and special transport services, the police, the Security Service, and Defense Intelligence, says Deputy Defense Minister Mstyslav Banik.

Assault regiments and the "Drone Line" project have joined, ordering unmanned systems to their own specifications.

Drones dominate the orders

By the ministry's count, electronic-warfare systems make up 8.6 percent of everything ordered, ground robotic complexes 7.2 percent, and ammunition a sliver at 0.2 percent.

The gear, worth about $1.9 billion, came both through direct marketplace purchases and through the "Army of Drones. Bonus" program, the points system tied to the same platform.

The US copies the model

The approach has drawn imitators. The US has launched its own Amazon-style marketplace for military drones, explicitly modeled on Ukraine's Brave1 Market and DOT-Chain Defense. For Ukraine, the payoff is data: a running record of which weapons work on which part of the front, which the state uses to scale up what performs.

A Ukrainian company has disclosed a small aircraft that can bomb a target, relay radio signals, carry FPV drones behind enemy lines, or strike on its own. The KARA, a fixed-wing drone made by Ukrskytechnology, is listed on Ukraine's state Brave1 Market in three tiers, from a bare airframe to a ready-to-fly aircraft, Defender Media reported.

One airframe does the work of several, and it goes for some $9,900. The marketplace it sits on, Brave1 Market, has processed more than $235 million in orders, lists over a thousand products, and lets frontline units buy gear even before a weapon clears formal codification.

One airframe does four jobs

What the KARA does depends on how it is kitted out. Fitted one way, it drops cargo; another, it works as a signal repeater to extend a unit's radio reach; another, it ferries FPV drones deep into the enemy rear to be released; and another, it carries out strikes itself. Buyers choose among an empty glider they equip themselves, a Plug-N-Play version with basic electronics installed, and a Ready-To-Fly model.

The drone flies light and far

The specifications are modest but flexible, according to Ukrskytechnology. The KARA has a tactical radius of 70 kilometers, and a stated endurance of 2.5 hours, cruises at 90 kilometers per hour and tops out at 120, and works at 200 meters but can climb to 3,000.

It runs on either an electric motor or a combustion engine, and carries two payload blocks of up to three kilograms each under the wing. Launched by catapult and landing like a plane, it takes 10 minutes to set up.

The marketplace lists it now

The KARA is being prepared for codification, the formal approval that clears a weapon for standard state procurement, but it does not have to wait for that to reach the front. Brave1 Market was built precisely so that units can buy proven kit fast, without waiting on the slow pipelines of the past, and the KARA is already there for the price of a used car.

TAF Industries signed a joint-venture memorandum with Danish firm Upteko for production but says bureaucracy is slowing the process. Meanwhile, Resist.UA agreed to invest in BlueShadow, a Danish maritime-defense startup whose founder commanded a US nuclear submarine and whose engineering team works largely in Ukraine, Defender Media reported.

Ukraine's defense industry has outgrown much of its own 2022-era hardware in two years of rapid wartime iteration, but a government fee of 20-30% on export permits and over 200 stalled co-production bids have left the country's foreign arms sales far behind battlefield demand. Deals like the two in Denmark route Ukrainian technology into allied markets without waiting for Kyiv's export apparatus to catch up.

Ukrainian first-person-view drones, made on Danish soil

Drone maker TAF Industries plans to produce its first batch in Denmark by the end of 2026, through a joint venture with local firm Upteko. The two signed a memorandum in August 2026, but paperwork on both sides has slowed things down.

"We need to pass a fairly large number of bureaucratic procedures to make it possible," chief business development officer Mykhailo Diachenko told NordicDefenceWatch.

He called the year-end target reachable, "though maybe it will look more like a miracle."

TAF wants footholds in other countries that support Ukraine. It has started the process in Norway and is negotiating with Sweden's Recas. Diachenko said the goal is local production plus sharing Ukrainian combat experience and technology with European partners. TAF builds FPV drones, with capacity near 1 million units a year.

A Ukrainian fund bets on Odesa's sea defense

Ukrainian fund Resist.UA signed a letter of intent to invest an undisclosed sum in Danish maritime-defense startup BlueShadow's €2 million ($2.29 million) pre-seed round, the company announced. BlueShadow's software collects data from maritime sensors, commercial feeds, and open sources, merges them into a single operational picture, and uses AI to detect threats, Defender Media reported.

The company has also built an open software platform it says can help intercept Shahed-type drones. BlueSentry, designed to protect ports, offshore wind farms, undersea cables, and maritime borders from hybrid attack, is one product that the company plans to launch in the Baltic and North seas in October. BlueDragon, now in prototype testing with Defense Ministry certification targeted for late 2026 and deployment planned for spring 2027, is designed to defend Odesa with autonomous swarms of armed sea drones meant to shoot down Russian attack drones.

Founder Charles Maher is a former US Navy submarine commander who ran a nuclear-powered boat, Defender Media reported. Almost his entire engineering team works in Ukraine, drawing on more than 15 Ukrainian suppliers. Resist.UA this summer launched Resist 2.0, an Estonia-based fund aiming to raise €50 million for Ukrainian defense-tech companies.

Four foreign volunteers serving in the Babai rifle battalion are training to operate FPV drones in Ternopil Oblast in western Ukraine, where they have formed a dedicated drone team, Suspilne reported on 22 September.

Ukraine's military increasingly looks to unmanned systems for roles traditionally carried out by soldiers. In May, an adviser to the commander of Ukraine's Third Army Corps said the corps planned to replace roughly 30% of its infantry with ground robotic systems by the end of 2026 "to save the lives of our soldiers." The plan concerns ground robots rather than FPV aircraft, but reflects the broader move toward using unmanned systems on the battlefield.

From mortars to FPV drones

The team was assembled by Harry, a British volunteer who has fought in Ukraine since arriving in March 2022. He served as a machine gunner in Kharkiv and during the Kharkiv counter-offensive, as well as in Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia.

Before coming to Ukraine, Harry served with People's Defense forces against ISIS in Syria. He said Ukraine's battlefield is fundamentally different, with drones and artillery making combat more dangerous.

For Fuzzy, a former British Army infantryman and counterterrorism specialist, the transition came after more than two years as a mortar operator. He arrived in April 2022 and initially trained Ukrainian defenders before moving into combat roles.

Fuzzy said he had initially been reluctant to switch from mortars to FPVs but found the drones not as difficult to operate as he had expected after training for more than two months.

Not everyone on the team flies. Rupert, who served in the British and Israeli armies, called Ukraine the clearest case of right against wrong since 1939 and said anyone who does nothing will regret it. His role on the team is technical: setting up antennas and checking drones before flights. "The younger guys can fly," he said.

Mac, an American with no previous military service, joined the war in a different role. He arrived in February 2025 and served with the Azov brigade as a logistics specialist in Donbas. Ukraine first appeared on his radar with the 2014 Maidan protests, he said, and when Russia's full-scale invasion began—"seeing the massacre in Bucha, the maternity hospital blown up in Mariupol"—he called it a higher calling and began preparing to come.

Adapting to the battlefield

The volunteers came to Ukraine with different backgrounds and have taken different roles during the war. Harry assembled the FPV team from fighters he had served with in different Ukrainian units. Fuzzy said the changing nature of the war made the transition necessary.

"The war has changed so much that what I was teaching could no longer be applied everywhere," Fuzzy added. "At this stage of the war, we have to keep pace with the times—everything is improving now."

Harry said his long-term goal is to live permanently in Ukraine and open a business. "I see Ukraine as my home," he said. "I want to defend not just the Ukrainian people but also the place where I want to live the rest of my life."

Ukraine's forces have shot down more than 350,000 Russian drones since the start of the year. The count, some 220,000 fixed-wing drones, 100,000 quadcopters, and 31,000 long-range Gerans, was filmed hit by hit in the DELTA combat system and verified by the Brave1 defense-innovation cluster, the Defense Ministry said.

Meanwhile, Russia is now threatening NATO countries directly, its drones probing Polish and Baltic skies, and those countries manage to down only a small fraction of what crosses their borders. In one incursion, Poland shot down just four of about 19 Russian drones.

Ukraine's 350,000 is the record of a force that has had to master drone defense at an industrial scale, night after night.

The tally runs to hundreds of thousands

Most of the kills belong to the Defense Forces' unmanned-systems units, which downed more than 320,000 Russian fixed-wing and copter drones. Those units, together with mobile fire groups and army aviation, also brought down faster Geran-type attack drones.

The pace has been relentless: in August alone, Ukraine destroyed some 35,000 fixed-wing drones and nearly 24,000 copters, the ministry said.

DELTA verifies every hit

Every downing is logged and confirmed in DELTA, the digital system Ukraine uses to run the battlefield, and which the ministry calls a key to its edge over Russia. Filming and verifying each kill lets commanders study how it was done and scale up whatever works.

The purpose is concrete: knocking down fixed-wing drones blinds Russian reconnaissance, and blunts strikes on cities and critical infrastructure, while downing copters keeps Russia from finding and hitting front-line positions. Each drone stopped, the ministry says, is potentially the life of a Ukrainian soldier or civilian saved.

The same threat now shadows NATO

That threat is spreading. Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Poland's parliament that intelligence points to Russian plans for drone and missile strikes on countries backing Ukraine.

The allies being warned are the ones that have struggled to stop even a handful of drones, while Ukraine, out of necessity, has learned to bring them down by the hundred thousand.

Ukrainian drones struck Rosneft's Kuibyshev refinery in Samara overnight on 22 September, hitting two primary crude-processing units and triggering a large fire, Ukrainian drone and missile maker Fire Point confirmed. The strike is part of Ukraine's ongoing campaign against the fuel infrastructure that sustains Russia's war—the same plant had to halt crude processing after a drone attack in June. The attack came one day after US President Donald Trump for the second time in a week urged Ukraine's leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to stop the refinery campaign.

FP-1 drones hit both primary processing units

Fire Point said its FP-1 drones struck the Kuibyshev refinery, hitting the AVT-4 and AVT-5 atmospheric-vacuum distillation units—the plant's primary crude-processing installations. A large fire broke out on the refinery grounds. The Kuibyshev refinery is part of Rosneft and has a designed processing capacity of about 7 million tons of crude oil per year. It is located more than 900 km from the war zone in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ began reporting explosions and air defense activity in Samara Oblast at 3:50 a.m. By 4:24 a.m., the channel posted videos showing a night fire at the refinery. OSINT channel World Militaries identified the AVT-5 unit as the initial fire site.

Russian news Telegram channel Astra separately confirmed the fire at the Kuibyshev refinery.

By morning, the fire was still burning. The smoke plume stretched about 100 km across Samara Oblast, Exilenova+ reported.

The Kuibyshev refinery stopped processing crude in June 2026 after Ukrainian drones hit its AVT-4 and AVT-5 units—the same pair now struck again. Each unit processes about 10,000 tons of crude per day, or roughly 73,000 barrels. The refinery had also suspended operations after a drone attack in August 2025.

Other targets in the overnight wave

Exilenova+ also reported that Ukrainian forces struck a military base in the city of Pochep in Bryansk Oblast overnight, with fire observed at the site. Residents of Tolyatti in Samara Oblast reported explosions, and witnesses suggested the Tolyattikauchuk synthetic rubber plant had been hit, Suspilne reported.

Samara Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev confirmed the attack, claiming Russian air defenses intercepted "dozens of drones." He said drones "targeted industrial enterprises" but did not name which ones. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed 297 Ukrainian drones were intercepted over 14 oblasts and occupied Crimea.

Part of an ongoing campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure

Ukraine's General Staff confirmed strikes on both the Bashneft-UNPZ refinery in Ufa and the Kuibyshev refinery in Samara, with fire observed at both sites. Ukraine has been striking Russian refineries continuously for months—hitting targets in Saratov and Volgograd on 11 September, Slavyansk-na-Kubani on 14 September, Syzran on 15 September, Yaroslavl on 17 September, and Ufa on 21 September, the night before the Kuibyshev strike. Earlier, the General Staff said the campaign has disabled 45% of Russia's oil-refining capacity. The strikes have also pushed Russia's fuel crisis into Central Asia, where shortages forced Kazakhstan to seek emergency supplies.

Trump urged Zelenskyy to stop the campaign for the second time in a week during their 21 September call, telling him "don't hit diesel fuel" and blaming Ukrainian strikes—not the Iran conflict—for rising US diesel prices.

Russia's Africa Corps deployed a Russian-made kamikaze drone against al-Qaeda-linked insurgents in central Mali before losing the aircraft, Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi reported. A local monitoring account says fighters brought it down as the mercenaries pulled back from the Dioura area after more than a week under siege.

Moscow's mercenary arm in Africa answers to the same Defense Ministry that runs its war on Ukraine, and its military supply line into Africa keeps expanding. This lands now because Ukrainian drone crews are helping the forces fighting Russia there, so tactics both sides honed in Ukraine are now surfacing in the Sahel.

A Russian war drone over the Sahel

The monitoring account Alerte Sahel reported that Africa Corps troops, encircled in their camp for over a week, fired the drone at positions of JNIM—the al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims—before breaking out and fleeing. The published video shows a damaged fixed-wing drone with an elongated fuselage and a straight wing. Alerte Sahel first called it an Orlan-10. Militarnyi identified it by its shape as a Molniya. The footage shows the aircraft only after it fell and does not reveal how it went down, so the shootdown claim rests on Alerte Sahel's account—which adds that the jihadists are "increasingly developing skills in mastering attack drones."

The Molniya is a cheap, simple fixed-wing kamikaze drone with a range of about 30-40 km. It carries a warhead of up to 7 kg and also flies reconnaissance and artillery-spotting runs.

Fighting around Dioura

Combat near Dioura, in Mali's Mopti region, has run since 10 September 2026, when JNIM struck Malian army positions. Mali's General Staff said it launched air-ground operations in response. It later reported on 17 September that its units, backed by partners, kept up their operations around the town. On 8 September, JNIM had ambushed an Africa Corps and Malian convoy near the village of Kaka in the same region, killing 13 Russian and Malian troops between them.

Russian authorities left residents in and around Moscow without air raid sirens or phone alerts during Ukraine's largest combined strike on Moscow Oblast, apparently to guard turnout at Russia's parliamentary elections, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said. The silence angered residents and even pro-war commentators as a major oil refinery burned.

For most of this war, Russia has handled strikes on its cities as a routine to be announced, warned about, and waited out. Withholding warnings during the heaviest raid yet, in the middle of a national vote, suggests authorities will trade residents' safety for the look of a calm election when a political milestone is on the line.

Sirens stayed off during the biggest raid

Ukraine hit strategic sites across the Moscow area overnight on 19-20 September, the last day of Russia's State Duma vote. Moscow Oblast officials did not switch on air alert sirens or send the SMS warnings they had used during far smaller attacks. They quietly restricted mobile service without major public notice. Ukraine struck oil and logistics targets, not polling stations, according to the experts, and authorities appeared to place high turnout above protecting civilians.

Moscow Oblast residents complained that no alert reached them, some posting on the Telegram channel of regional Governor Andrei Vorobyov before it closed comments. A prominent Kremlin-linked military blogger attacked the official response, saying it erodes public trust and that cutting mobile service does "not really help."

What the drones hit

Ukraine's General Staff reported striking the Gazpromneft-Moscow Oil Refinery in the city's Kapotnya district, one of Russia's largest plants, causing a large fire. Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point said its FP-1 drones completely shut down the refinery, with all primary processing units damaged.

Governor Andrei Vorobyov claimed air defenses countered 249 drones across 17 municipal districts. The strike was part of Ukraine's widening campaign against the fuel sector funding Russia's war, with about a fifth of Russian refining capacity offline.

Poland will have more than 1,000 automated warning sirens in Lublin Voivodeship by the end of 2026, Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said on 19 September, up from nearly 350 now. The region had about 30 remotely activated sirens at the beginning of 2024.

The expansion comes as Russian attacks on the west of Ukraine are reaching closer to Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Russia is expected to intensify attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure and warned of possible "accidental" drone or missile strikes on NATO countries, including Poland. He also said Russia is introducing jet-powered drones that move much faster and at higher altitudes.

Sirens sound as drones approach the border

A Russian air attack on western Ukraine triggered air-raid warnings in Poland's Lublin and Podkarpackie regions on 17 September. Sirens sounded in Lublin and Rzeszów, while residents received an SMS warning: "ATTENTION! ATTENTION! ATTENTION! Threat of an air attack. Find a safe place. Follow the instructions of the emergency services. Await further announcements."

The Polish military said its aircraft were activated in response to Russian strikes involving jet-powered drones against western Ukraine. A Russian drone flying toward Poland fell on Ukrainian territory about four kilometers from the Polish border, according to Polish authorities. Polish airspace was not violated.

Airports in Lublin and Rzeszów temporarily suspended operations to give military aircraft freedom of movement. Polish authorities said the measures were preventive and intended to protect Polish airspace.

More strikes on the border zone

On 13 September, Russian strikes near the Yahodyn-Dorohusk border crossing damaged a gas station and hit the locomotive of a Kyiv-Warsaw passenger train about two kilometers from the Polish border. No deaths were reported, and the border crossing temporarily halted operations.

On 19 September, Poland again activated ground-based air-defense systems and increased radar reconnaissance in response to another wave of Russian strikes on Ukraine. The operation ended the same day with no violation of Polish airspace recorded.

Shelters, sirens, and a 1939 echo

Beyond sirens, authorities have marked nearly 3,500 official shelter locations in Lublin Voivodeship. More than 500 State Fire Service stations and volunteer fire units took part in special exercises on 19 September to practice responses to warning signals and emergency alerts.

"We are building a civil-protection system virtually from scratch," Kierwiński said at a briefing in Lublin. "We have very, very little time."

The 17 September strikes fell on the anniversary of the Soviet Union's 1939 invasion of Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the Russian attack as "massive, extremely brutal."

The 13 September strikes near the border also drew a response from Kyiv. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described them as Putin's terror "knocking" directly on the doors of the EU and NATO and called for a "full trade embargo, a total entry ban, and complete sanctions against Russia's military-industrial complex."

For the first time, Ukraine has dropped ground robots behind Russian lines from the air. The 3rd Army Corps, behind the mission, says its heavy drones delivered kamikaze unmanned ground vehicles more than 10 kilometers into the Russian rear during the "second season" of Operation Vivaldi, letting Ukrainian troops flank them and clear another 40 square kilometers.

Vivaldi is the counteroffensive the corps is running near Lyman in northern Donetsk. Over its first two "seasons," the 3rd Army Corps and attached units have retaken more than 125 square kilometers, half of it de-occupied outright, and inflicted more than 3,000 casualties on Russian forces.

The operation, run under an information blackout for months, has also disrupted Russia's push and, the Institute for the Study of War found, its plan to encircle the fortified belt of Donetsk cities.

Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi, corps commander, has said the operation, which he named after Vivaldi's Four Seasons, will run through four phases, and only two have been completed. The air-dropped robot is the newest report on how the corps fights.

Machines go first, infantry follows

The corps casts the tactic as a means of expending robots rather than people.

"In assault operations, drones and ground robots always go ahead of the infantry," Biletskyi says.

The 3rd Army Corps was the first in the world to begin air-dropping ground robotic systems. Our heavy bombers deliver kamikaze robots more than 10 kilometers into the Russian rear.

Wars are won by infantry, one of the corps' soldiers added, "but we protect ours, so the robots go to the enemy first."

A dome hides the assault

As the assault groups advanced amid the operation, Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare threw a protective dome over the battle area, blinding Russian drones so they could not read the operation's design.

Meanwhile, artillery and strike drones hit command posts, communications nodes, logistics, crossings, and reserves, letting Ukrainian units dig in on the ground they had taken.

On the Lyman axis, the corps says it freed the villages of Shandryholove and Derylove and took control of Drobysheve, and that Vivaldi has kept Russia from shifting significant forces to the Kupiansk front.

Russia is quietly moving to expand the capacity of the plant behind its long-range attack drones, a step that could sharply raise how many it launches at Ukraine, according to Politico. The plan turns on a single carbon fiber factory in Russia's Tatarstan region and runs to the end of the decade.

These files add something narrower than Russia's known intent to fight on: they identify carbon fiber as a critical material capping how many drones it can build. To break that cap, the Kremlin is funding production lines that will not run until the decade's end—a bet on winning by out-building Ukraine, even as the strikes grind on.

The bottleneck Russia wants to break

Politico obtained internal documents from Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom showing its Alabuga-Volokno plant would add 500 tons of military-grade aerospace carbon fiber a year by 2029. Rosatom declined to comment. Weapons expert David Albright, who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, estimated that volume could yield airframes for about 28,000 more attack drones a year—a 78% jump.

Ukraine already estimates Russia can build more than 36,000 Shahed/Geran kamikaze drones a year. Carbon fiber is the choke point: it keeps the airframes light and strong, and Russia has no cheap substitute.

"Without the carbon fiber, they can't make the drone. Can't substitute for the carbon fiber in the drone and keep its weight down," Albright said.

Moscow is investing in the raw material, not just more assembly halls—the fiber, not floor space, is what caps output.

Ground already cleared in Tatarstan

Documents gathered by the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center describe a new factory on the site designed to produce UMT42S-3K aerospace-grade fiber. Satellite images from May to July show land cleared for construction. Albright's own August imagery shows foundations going in. He said the stated 2027 completion date "requires rapid construction." Russia has spent the past year adding new assembly halls at the same site.

The plant and its parent, Rosatom's Umatex Group, already sit under US, UK, and other Western sanctions. The US House Select Committee on China and the Ukrainian government both verified the documents, officials told Politico.

The push comes as Russia leans harder on jet-powered Shaheds, which Ukraine's Air Force says are hard to down with conventional defenses. Kyiv has fielded its first jet interceptor and tested a new one in September—but the plant is a bid to out-build those defenses faster than Ukraine can scale them.

For years, Ukraine’s air defenses blunted Russia’s attempts to terrorize its cities from the sky. Now, after four years of adaptation, Moscow is fielding faster drones, massing ballistic missiles, and finding new ways to overwhelm a Ukrainian air-defense network running short of the interceptors needed to stop them.

Russia’s aerial campaign is becoming harder to contain just as its attacks are killing more Ukrainian civilians. July recorded at least 437 civilian deaths, the highest monthly toll since the early months of the full-scale invasion, with UN monitors pointing to Russian missile and drone attacks as a key factor.

That shift is visible most clearly in Russia’s rapidly expanding use of jet-powered Geran drones. These drones can exceed 400 km/h, making them significantly harder to intercept than the slower, propeller-driven Shaheds Ukraine has spent years learning to counter. Russia reportedly launched as many as 2,850 jet-powered drones in August alone.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia’s escalation with the new drones is becoming “increasingly terrorist” and called for urgent efforts to develop defenses against them.

While Ukraine’s Western partners have taken steps to strengthen its air defenses, Russia has spent the same period adapting and expanding its ability to attack from the air. The gap is becoming increasingly visible in the skies over Ukrainian cities.

Ukrainian civilians are already paying the price

Russia has increasingly turned its ability to strike deep inside Ukraine into a weapon against civilian life itself: hitting residential areas, fuel stations, railways, energy infrastructure and other sites across cities far from the front.

Since late August, Kyiv has faced near-continuous Russian drone attacks, with Russia increasingly sending waves of drones against the capital throughout the day and night. The shift has made air-raid alerts, explosions and disruptions to daily life a near-constant reality.

For Ukrainians, Russia’s evolving aerial campaign is measured in destroyed homes, injuries, deaths, and lives permanently changed. 

In Kyiv, it has also changed everyday life: explosions interrupt sleep and work, people run for shelter as strikes unfold overhead, and the threat of another attack is never far away.

And the pressure is no longer confined to Kyiv. Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are all facing increasingly sophisticated combinations of drones and missiles.

The danger is not simply that Russia is launching more weapons. It is that Moscow has spent years learning which weapons can penetrate Ukraine’s defenses, how to combine them, and how to force Ukraine to spend its most valuable interceptors.

Zelenskyy’s warning captures the urgency: “You cannot simply wait for Russia to perfect its repertoire of killings.”

Russia is adapting faster than Ukraine can rebuild its shield

The jet-powered Geran is only one part of the problem.

Russia has also dramatically increased its use of ballistic missiles. Reuters reported that 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles were launched in July and the first eight days of August, with more than half being inaccurate RM48U training missiles repurposed for combat. 

Ukraine has virtually exhausted its US-made Patriot interceptors, the only systems in its arsenal capable of reliably intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles, while Moscow continues launching them at a high tempo.

The result is a more complex aerial threat: fast drones that are difficult to intercept, ballistic missiles that are extremely difficult to stop, and large waves of cheaper weapons that can force Ukraine to expend scarce defensive ammunition.

Ukraine is developing new ways to counter them, including interceptor drones specifically designed to hunt down the jet-powered Gerans. But Ukraine is developing these systems as Russia is already deploying its new weapons at scale.

Western countries have continued providing air-defense assistance. Canada, for example, announced a C$350 million package for interceptors earlier this month. But Ukrainian officials continue to say that deliveries remain far below what is needed to protect the country from Russia’s expanding aerial campaign.

Russia has spent years expanding the weapons it can use against Ukraine, while Ukraine and its partners are still racing to develop and supply the systems needed to stop them.

The threat Europe helped Russia develop

Some of Ukraine’s Western partners are now confronting a threat Russia has spent years developing over Ukraine: an increasingly sophisticated aerial arsenal that could eventually be turned against them.

European officials and defense analysts are increasingly warning that NATO countries themselves lack enough air and missile defenses to deal with a large Russian attack. 

Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs recently said Europe is not sufficiently prepared for the kind of drone and aerial warfare Russia has developed in Ukraine, including because of delays in supplying Ukraine with critical air-defense systems.

Those concerns are no longer hypothetical. On 14 September, an Italian NATO fighter jet shot down a Russian-made Geran-2 drone over Lithuania after it entered the country from Belarus. Poland and Romania have also faced Russian drone incursions since 2025.

This creates a problem that is partly of Europe’s own making. Russia has had more than four years to refine its drones, missiles, production lines and tactics while Ukraine’s partners have often been too slow to provide enough weapons to counter those systems as they were developed and deployed at scale.

In that same period, many European countries continued trading with Russia, particularly in fossil fuels, allowing Moscow to keep generating revenue from European markets even as those same governments were providing military aid to Ukraine.

The result is a Russian aerial arsenal that is more capable than the one Ukraine faced in 2022 – while some of the countries now worried about a future Russian threat lack the air defenses needed to protect themselves.

Western governments helped Ukraine fight Russia’s air war, but not at a scale or speed sufficient to prevent Russia from adapting. 

Ukrainian civilians are paying the price for the time Russia was given to expand and refine its aerial warfare. Now, Europe is having to prepare for the possibility that those capabilities could one day be used against it. 

Ukrainian engineers near the front rewrite their drones' software every couple of days. A NATO army needs about six months to push the same update. That gap in speed is the central challenge for the Western trainers working with Ukrainian troops in Poland, who say Ukraine's wartime tempo is exposing how slowly the West moves in peacetime, the Business Insider reports.

Russia's war forces the Ukrainian Army to buy, train, and adapt at a pace peacetime armies are not built for, and its experience is pushing NATO to confront how much its own bureaucracy slows it down.

The alliance has studied that experience without yet fully absorbing it: in an Estonian war game last winter, a ten-person Ukrainian drone team wiped out two NATO battalions in a day.

Now NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is calling for a large-scale transformation of the West's defense industry so its armies can react faster.

Two speeds meet in Poland

The place where those speeds collided was Camp Jomsborg, a base Norway built in an eastern Polish forest in a matter of months. There, under an operation called Legio, trainers from across northern Europe drill Ukrainian soldiers while the Ukrainians hand their front-line lessons back to NATO.

The camp sits, as its operations officer, a major identified only as John, put it,  at "the mental and geographical middle point between war in the east and peacetime mechanism in the West."

A drone update tells the story

Brigadier General Atle Molde, who commands the task force, put the gap in numbers. If a Western drone needs new software, he said, "you have to send it to a Western country or a company, and an update takes six months." 

In Ukraine, "they have the engineers sitting close to the front updating every two days, every two weeks, developing software, adapting it to genuine situations."

Molde said he wants to see greater initiative in innovation within Western armies, but to achieve that, "it has to be some major changes that have to be done on all levels when it comes to legislation."

Ukraine's battle-tested drone makers did not win a single top slot in the Pentagon's latest drone contest. But some Ukrainian technology won anyway, competing quietly under the names of Western partners, The Defender Media reports.

The Pentagon's $1.1 billion Drone Dominance program does not allow direct purchases from Ukrainian firms, which must set up a US legal entity to bid.

The Ukrainians who competed under their own names were hampered by export licenses, the hunt for non-Chinese components, and visa issues, and none of the four cracked the top five in either category.

American firms sweep the top slots

The Pentagon picked five winners each in two categories, long-range strikes out to 15 kilometers and close-in assault. Eric Schmidt's Perennial Autonomy topped the long-range field with its Hornet drone, on 80.1 points, and Neros led the close-in category with 88.1. Neros already supplies Ukraine with 6,000 of its Archer FPV drones.

The rest of the winners, from ORQA's US arm to XTEND and ModalAI, were American as well. All will receive Pentagon supply contracts, with order sizes to be set later.

Ukrainians win under other flags

The Ukrainian firms that announced their entries, F-Drones, General Chereshnya, Grim Tech, and Stellarion, all missed the cut, though General Chereshnya had reached the program's second round earlier in the year.

Bureaucracy tripped the open entrants

Stellarion laid out what went wrong. Getting export permits and moving hardware took so long that integrating American parts, including warheads, and adapting the finished system on schedule became "complicated," its representatives said.

Finding NDAA-compliant, non-Chinese components ate up more time, and visa delays kept its specialists from fixing technical problems on site.

Firms that missed the top five can enter later rounds: a Gauntlet 2.5 contest for bomber drones is set for October, and a third phase begins in February 2027, with missions built to test control of several drones at once.

Poland will provide another aid package to Ukraine, which will include, among other things, “what Ukraine needs right now,” Deputy Minister of National Defense Stanisław Wziątek said, reports Polskie Radio. He said the package would include missiles for F-16 fighter jets, which the Ukrainian military uses to shoot down Russian drones.

Ukraine is critically short of missiles for F-16 fighter jets, which shoot down Russian UAVs. Recently, it was reported that pilots sometimes took off without missiles, using only the aircraft’s built-in M61A1 Vulcan cannon, which is dangerous for civilians. Poland’s newly promised aid will include these missiles for Ukraine.

Among other things, Poland will provide aviation equipment, the report said. Media reports added that the aid package may be worth around €50 million.

Ammunition for F-16s and possible aviation equipment

“Our aid is in the process of being prepared. Everything will happen in a moment. I cannot say what it contains, I can only say that it is what Ukraine needs right now. This includes basic ammunition. These are the ones mounted on F-16s to shoot down Russian drones,” Wziątek said.

AIM-9 and AIM-120 are air-to-air missiles that the Ukrainian Armed Forces use with F-16s to fight Russian aviation, Militarnyi says. The outlet adds that last year Ukrainian F-16s were spotted with APKWS II missiles, which are effective against drones. As for the aforementioned aviation equipment, Poland may provide decommissioned MiG-29 fighter jets or drones, the media outlet suggests.

The MiG-29 does not use the same scarce stocks of AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles.

Missile shortage is not new

In July 2025, America abruptly suspended arms supplies to Ukraine, affecting some types of weapons. Among them were more than 90 US-made AIM air-to-air missiles that were in Poland and on their way to Ukraine, but were withdrawn by the US, according to a Wall Street Journal article. Since then, Ukraine has received Western aid for air defense systems, but missiles have remained among the items in short supply.

Ukraine faced a severe shortage of F-16 missiles from late November to mid-December, according to Reuters. One source said Ukraine had "nothing to put on its jets for almost a month."

While F-16s likely rank first by number in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Soviet-made MiG-29 ranks second, Euromaidan Press. Ukraine had enough R-73 missiles for this fighter, but when the Ukrainian Armed Forces also began using them for ground-based launchers after 9M33 missiles for Soviet Osa air defense systems ran out, the rate of consumption increased sharply.

Ukrainian forces were observed resuming the use of older missiles that had been considered obsolete. There is an alternative: using the fighter’s cannon. However, this practice is dangerous.

A Ukrainian drone maker has revealed it built a strike weapon it kept classified, deputy director Andrii Rymaruk told Radio NV. For two years, Ukrspecsystems, known for manufacturing Ukraine's SHARK reconnaissance drones, hid its connection to the RAM-2X strike drone, even as crews used it to hunt Russia's costly air defenses and missile launchers deep behind the front. By 2025, it had quietly become the Defense Forces' flagship mid-strike drone.

Ukraine's war on Russia's air defenses increasingly runs on drones its own industry builds and fields in secret, revealed only once they have already destroyed the enemy's costliest launchers and radars. Holding one back that long lets its crews rack up strikes before Moscow can study the weapon and build a counter—and this maker went public only once wrecked drones had reached Russian hands.

Why come out now

The RAM-2X first flew in combat in early 2024, but the maker kept its role secret. Rymaruk said the company wanted the drone and its crews to finish the job first—destroy what needed destroying—before talking. Once shot-down units reached the enemy and turned up on social media, silence no longer protected anything. So after two years, Ukrspecsystems unveiled the drone at the MSPO defense expo in Kielce, Poland.

What it kills

This is a mid-strike drone—a loitering munition that flies deep behind the lines, circles, and dives into its target. Its victims include S-400 and S-300 air defenses, the systems Russia uses to shoot down aircraft, and Iskander launchers that fire ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities.

Rymaruk put the RAM-2X's own tally at more than 350 Russian systems destroyed since 2024, while Defender Media, which interviewed him, reported more than 1,000 targets over two years. Ukrspecsystems credits the wider RAM series, which reaches back to a fixed-wing model supplied from late 2022, with more than 450 target engagements, over 400 of them against air defenses. Today, it destroys 50 to 60 pieces of Russian equipment a month.

How far, how many

The drone has grown fast. It flew 140 km in 2024 and now hits targets up to 180 km, almost 230 km in good conditions, and a crew from the 429th Achilles unmanned-systems brigade set a range record at 215.5 km. It has spread from a few crews to about 100 military units and 250 trained teams, and one operator can fly it from anywhere in Ukraine. It also works in pairs with the SHARK-M reconnaissance drone—one finds the target, the other kills it. In July, Ukrainians crowdfunded 30 of the drones for military intelligence and the security service through Serhii Prytula's foundation.

A large-scale police operation is underway after a drone of unknown origin crashed 1 kilometer from a Bundeswehr base, German media outlet Bild reported on 15 September.

Drones have repeatedly flown over German military bases, and German prosecutors are already treating one August find near Ukraine-bound cargo as attempted sabotage. Germany's military counterintelligence has tied repeated sabotage on German soil to Russia, with high probability. Neither the owner nor the origin of this drone is known. Russia has denied involvement in earlier incidents, some of which Germany has officially attributed to it.

Discovery near airbase triggers large-scale search

Parts of the drone were found east of Lake Steinhude, the media outlet said. The crash site is one kilometer from the Bundeswehr's Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony, the German military confirmed to the outlet. The drone crashed in an open, uninhabited area, the state criminal police office said. After the debris was discovered, authorities launched a large-scale search operation in the area to find additional parts of the UAV, according to Bild.

Investigators do not yet know who owns the drone

The search continues, and the state criminal police office says there are so far no indications of a danger to the public. Investigators learned about the discovery on Monday and want to analyze any other drone parts they find to determine its origin, the media outlet reported. Only then could more be said about the circumstances of the crash, it added.

Drones have been spotted over Bundeswehr bases many times

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the number of reports of drone sightings has "increased significantly" and become "more consistent," a spokesperson for the Bundeswehr Operations Command told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) in August.

"Overall, several hundred suspected drone overflights have been reported in the area of the German Armed Forces in recent years," the command spokesperson told RND.

What came before this crash

Germany is the busiest front in Russia's covert campaign in Europe. A Semtex-laden drone turned up beside a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle airport in August, and investigators this month named a Russian intelligence operative and a Belarusian petty criminal. Berlin blamed Moscow and ordered Russia's Bonn consulate closed.

Two Bulgarians were arrested over a September arson at a Munich building site between two defense-tech headquarters, a day after two attempts to sabotage the power grid that Germany has not attributed. Germany suspects a planned assassination of a Bavarian drone maker's boss, watched by agents hired for single jobs.

Explore further

The throwaway agents Moscow sent after a Bavarian drone boss arming Ukraine—and how Germany stopped them

Not every strand leads to Moscow. German military counterintelligence this week attributed part of the drone activity over Bundeswehr sites to Chinese intelligence.

Elsewhere the tempo holds: Polish prosecutors have opened more than a hundred espionage cases in 20 months, and in the Netherlands a former commander of US Army forces in Europe said Russian saboteurs attacked the rail network and tried to kill him, which Dutch Railways said they knew nothing about.

Ukraine has authorized 81 private companies to run their own air defense against Russian drones, letting the factories and infrastructure sites that Moscow hits daily shoot back, Ukraine's Defense Ministry says. The firms have been provided "authorized" status under an experimental program, a count that has climbed from 51 in mid-July, according to ArmyInform.

The idea is to let the targets defend themselves. Russian drones strike Ukrainian factories, warehouses, and power sites so relentlessly that the state cannot shield everyone, so the Defense Ministry is enlisting the companies being hit to form their own drone-defense teams.

Ninety-two firms have already applied, among them operators of critical infrastructure and businesses from across the country's industries and regions. The teams are not freelancers: they fold into Ukraine's layered air defense under the command of the Air Force, so they do not fire into a shared sky blind.

The count climbs fast

The program has grown quickly since it began in late 2025, from 24 companies in April to 30 in June, 51 in July, and 81 by mid-September. The units are made of trained, certified civilian staff, some running mobile fire teams with heavy machine guns, others flying interceptor drones.

By June, they had already shot down more than 20 Russian attack and reconnaissance drones, the ministry said, including one jet-powered Geran, the faster variant that has strained Ukraine's defenses.

Russia's drones drive the demand

The Defense Ministry launched the project at the end of 2025 to add a layer of protection for workers and production sites that had become routine targets.

The goal the ministry set for the wider effort is stark: detect every aerial threat and destroy 95 percent of them. The steady climb in members, roughly one company added per day since July, suggests that demand is not slowing.

Russia’s growing ability to sustain weapons production despite Western sanctions is being driven by a flow of Chinese components and materials, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president’s commissioner for sanctions, told journalists on July 7.

Vlasiuk’s statement comes as Russia escalates its drone and missile strikes on Ukraine, while the U.S. continues to hold back on imposing tougher sanctions against Moscow and foreign-made components are still being found in Russian weapons used in the attacks.

Ukraine has previously documented that Chinese companies have contributed electronics and materials used in the production of these drones.

Just days earlier, after a large-scale Russian attack on July 4, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha shared on social media a photo of a component from a Shahed-136/Geran-2 combat drone discovered in Kyiv. According to Sybiha, the part was manufactured in China and delivered recently.

"The trend of China’s (role) is increasing," Vlasiuk told journalists.

He said that the presence of Chinese-made components and materials in Russian weapons is on the rise, adding that Beijing is expanding its technological capabilities and can now replicate some American technologies.

When asked by Kyiv about the Chinese parts found in Russian weapons, Beijing responded by claiming that such support is "non-lethal," the president's commissioner for sanctions said.

Beijing remains one of Russia's key wartime partners, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and emerging as the leading supplier of dual-use goods used by the Russian defense industry.

In April, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that China, alongside Iran and North Korea, is supplying weapons to Russia.

His remarks followed reports that Ukrainian soldiers had captured Chinese nationals fighting together with Russia's army in Donetsk Oblast. Later, Zelensky revealed that at least "several hundred" Chinese nationals are fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine.

Ukraine has already sanctioned several Chinese companies tied to Russia’s war effort.

The South China Morning Post reported that China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told the EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas on July 3 that the country cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine amid fears Washington would shift focus towards Beijing.

Experts echo Rutte’s warnings on Russian-Chinese threat to NATO, Taiwan

If Beijing moves against Taiwan, NATO might soon find itself in a two-front war with China and Russia — or so the alliance’s secretary general believes. “If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin… and telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,’” Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a July 5 interview with the New

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Editor's note: This story was updated with a statement made by Ukraine's General Staff.

Ukraine's military confirmed on July 7 that it targeted a chemical plant in Russia's Moscow Oblast used for producing ammunition and explosives, the General Staff said.

The plant, located 88 kilometers (55 miles) northeast of Moscow, produces industrial and military-grade chemicals, including explosives, ammunition components, and aircraft protection systems.

Established in 1915, the plant is one of the city's largest employers and plays a key role in Russia's defense-industrial complex. Its location in Krasnozavodsk places it roughly 530 kilometers (329 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

It is affiliated with the Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec and supplies the Defense Ministry, Interior Ministry, Federal Security Service (FSB), and other law enforcement agencies.

Moscow Oblast authorities have not officially confirmed the attack. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that air defenses intercepted or destroyed 91 Ukrainian drones across multiple regions, including eight over Moscow Oblast.

In a statement released later on July 7, Ukraine's General Staff confirmed that units from its Unmanned Systems Forces, in coordination with other elements of the Defense Forces, carried out a precision strike against the Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant.

The facility was specifically targeted to disrupt Russia's ability to produce explosive materials and ammunition, including thermobaric warheads used in Shahed-type drones.

"A series of explosions was recorded in the area of Krasnozavodsk, and firefighting equipment was seen moving through neighboring settlements," the statement read. The results of the strike are still being assessed, it added.

The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the reports.

The reported strike comes as part of Ukraine's broader campaign to disrupt Russian logistics, weapons production, and supply lines far behind the front line.

In recent months, Ukrainian drones have hit multiple industrial and military sites across Russia, including oil depots, airfields, and electronics facilities.

After airport chaos, tanker blast, Putin fires Russian transport minister

The dismissal comes amid a series of high-profile disruptions to Russia’s aviation and shipping sectors.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Drones attacked Russia's Black Sea Fleet at the port of Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai overnight on July 6, the Russian media outlet Astra reported.

Ukraine has not officially commented on the reported strikes, and the Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claims.

An air alert was sounded in the city for several hours, and air defense was active. The consequences of the attack are still being determined, according to Astra.

The media outlet also published footage purportedly showing a burning maritime drone that was allegedly shot down during the attack.

Krasnodar Krai is located east of Crimea, with the Kerch Strait separating them at their closest point.

Ukraine regularly strikes military targets within Russia as Moscow continues to wage its war against Ukraine.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces downed 120 drones overnight on July 6.

Thirty drones were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, 29 over Kursk Oblast, and 18 over Oryol Oblast, according to the ministry. An additional 17 and 13 drones were reportedly intercepted over Belgorod and Tula oblasts, respectively, the ministry said.

Due to drone attacks in Russia, numerous flights were canceled or delayed at several airports, including Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport, overnight between July 5 and July 6.

Ukrainian drone strike on Russian airfield hits bomb depot, aircraft

The airfield hosts Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-30SM jets that Russia regularly uses in air strikes against Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian military.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

Editor's note: The story was updated with new reports about operations at Russian airports during drone strikes.

Several Russian airports have canceled flights due to safety concerns over Ukrainian drone attacks, the Russian Federal Aviation Agency (Rosaviatsia) reported on July 6.

Rosaviatsia reported on the evening of July 6 that 287 flights had been grounded across three major airports: Moscow's Sheremetyevo,  St. Petersburg's Pulkovo, and Strigino Airport in Nizhny Novgorod.

The restrictions follow a wave of closures the previous night, also triggered by drone threats. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that it had intercepted 120 drones on Russian territory overnight between July 5 and July 6.

Ukraine hasn't commented on the report. Kyiv's drone campaign, which has increasingly disrupted civilian air travel in Russia, is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to undermine Russia's logistics far beyond the front line.

Rosaviatsia confirmed the temporary pause in flights at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport, citing airspace restrictions over the capital and strong winds. At Sheremetyevo, 171 flights were canceled and 56 more were delayed, causing crowds of passengers to form at the airport.

At Pulkovo, 90 flights were canceled and 37 remain delayed due to safety concerns. In Nizhny Novgorod, 26 flights were canceled and 13 delayed. Flight restrictions have also been imposed on Russia's Ivanovo, Kaluga, Pskov, and Tambov airports, the agency said.

The Kyiv Independent couldn't immediately verify these claims.

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This latest drone attack on Moscow follows an earlier Ukrainian operation targeting the Borisoglebsk airfield in Russia's Voronezh Oblast overnight on July 5.

Ukraine's General Staff reported that the strike damaged a warehouse containing guided bombs, aircraft, and other military assets.

The Borisoglebsk airfield is known to host Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-30SM jets, which Russia regularly employs in air strikes against Ukraine. Military assessments are underway, with initial reports suggesting a training and combat aircraft may have been destroyed.

NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) detected a fire near the Borisoglebsk military airfield shortly after the strike. Residents in the area reported 8–10 powerful explosions around 2 a.m. local time, according to the Russian independent outlet Astra.

The attack on Borisoglebsk was part of a broader overnight drone campaign across Russia, with explosions and fires reported in at least six regions.

Serhii Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Army's Southern Division, told the Kyiv Independent in May that Ukraine is shifting its drone strategy, deliberately aiming to disrupt Russian aviation operations and make the war visible to the Russian population.

Trump says Putin ‘wants to keep killing people,’ signals US may send Patriots to Ukraine

“It just seems like he wants to go all the way and just keep killing people. It’s not good,” U.S. President Donald Trump said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Ukraine struck a critical Russian military-industrial site overnight on July 5 that produces components for high-precision weapons used by Moscow to attack Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.

The site in question is JSC VNIIR-Progress, a Russian state institute that specializes in developing electronic warfare (EW) systems, including the Kometa antenna arrays, used to jam satellite, radio, and radar signals.

The institute is located in Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic, about 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) away from the Ukrainian border.

The Kometa antenna is used in Shahed-type drones, Iskander-K cruise missiles, and guided aerial bomb modules — all high-precision weapons used by Russia to strike civilian and military targets across Ukraine.

The General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian weapons reached the target area but said final damage assessments were still underway.

The VNIIR-Progress institute has been sanctioned by both the United States and the European Union for its role in supporting Russia's war effort.

The Iskander-K is a precision-guided cruise missile with a range of up to 500 kilometers (311 miles), frequently used by Russia to target civilian areas. Shahed drones have become a central part of Moscow's airstrike tactics since late 2022 due to their low cost and high payload.

Located on the Volga River, Cheboksary is the capital of the Chuvash Republic and lies deep inside Russian territory. Russian independent media outlet Astra and local Telegram channels earlier reported explosions in the city overnight.

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have shot down two drones over the region.

This marks the second known Ukrainian drone strike on VNIIR-Progress. On June 9, explosions and fires were also reported at the facility following another drone attack.

Russia's largest airports experienced hours-long flight delays and cancellations on July 5, as authorities imposed temporary restrictions due to a reported threat of Ukrainian drone attacks, the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Shot reported.

Ukraine hasn't commented on the report. Kyiv's drone campaign, which has increasingly disrupted civilian air travel in Russia, is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to undermine Russia's logistics far beyond the front line.

Some passengers in Russia reported waiting more than 10 hours on July 5 as their flights were being delayed, according to Shot.

Departures at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport were halted for several hours, delaying over 20 flights. At St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Airport, roughly 50 flights were delayed and more than 20 canceled.

Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko said that two drones were shot down south of St. Petersburg, prompting a temporary suspension of operations at Pulkovo Airport.

The disruptions followed a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks overnight, which targeted military and industrial infrastructure in at least six Russian regions.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it intercepted 42 drones within three hours, mainly over the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts near the Ukrainian border.

Novaya Gazeta Europe reported in May that at least 217 temporary airport closures have occurred across Russia since Jan. 1 due to drone threats, more than in 2023 and 2024 combined.

A similar wave of strikes ahead of Russia's Victory Day in May led to massive delays, affecting an estimated 60,000 travelers.

Ukraine’s new drone strategy — cripple Moscow’s airports, make Russian population ‘pay’

Hundreds of Ukrainian kamikaze drones have flown towards Moscow in recent weeks. None appear to have even reached the Russian capital, yet the effect on the city — and the wider country — has been hugely significant. Ukrainian drones have forced at least 217 temporary airport closures across Russia since Jan. 1,

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

A Russian missile and drone strike on Odesa on July 3 damaged the building of the Chinese Consulate General, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on July 4.

"Following tonight's massive Russian air attack on Ukraine, we discovered in Kyiv a component of a Russian-Iranian Shahed-136/Geran-2 combat drone, which was made in China and supplied just recently," Sybiha wrote on X.

"And right on the eve, the Chinese Consulate General's building in Odesa suffered minor damage."

The July 3 assault on Odesa killed two people and injured six others. China has not publicly acknowledged the incident or reported any damage to its diplomatic premises in the city.

The Shahed-136 drone, a loitering munition used by Russia in its attacks on Ukrainian cities, has been assembled in large numbers in Russia with components sourced globally.

Ukraine has previously documented that Chinese companies have contributed electronics and materials used in the production of these drones.

Beijing remains one of Russia's key wartime partners, helping Moscow evade Western sanctions and emerging as the leading supplier of dual-use goods used by the Russian defense industry.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on July 3 that Beijing cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, according to the South China Morning Post, which cited unnamed sources familiar with the conversation.

The reported statement adds to growing concerns in Kyiv over China's expanding role in supporting Russia's war effort. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly accused China of siding with Moscow.

As Russian-Chinese relations deepen, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit China in September for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, where he is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Zelensky, Trump discuss air defense, joint drone production amid Russian strikes

“Today we discussed the situation: Russian air strikes and, more broadly, the situation on the front lines. President Trump is very well informed,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Editor's note: This story was updated with a statement made by Ukraine's General Staff.

Drones struck multiple targets in Russia overnight on July 4, including a high-value defense facility in the southern Rostov region, according to Andrii Kovalenko, head of the counter-disinformation center at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Kovalenko said a drone hit the Azov Optical and Mechanical Plant in the town of Azov, Rostov Oblast. The facility reportedly manufactures critical components for the Russian military, including sights, rangefinders, thermal imaging systems, and fire control equipment for tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, ships, and aircraft.

"Despite the difficult night, there is also good news. There were attacks on facilities in Russia, particularly in Moscow and Rostov regions," Kovalenko wrote. "This is where the 'eyes' for Russian armored vehicles are assembled."

Overnight on July 4, Russia launched a massive drone and missile assault on multiple Ukrainian cities, with Kyiv as the primary target. At least 23 people were injured in the capital amid widespread destruction and high levels of air pollution.

Ukraine's General Staff later confirmed that its drone units, operating in coordination with other elements of the Defense Forces, also struck the Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry (FNTs NIIPKh) in Sergiyev Posad, Moscow Oblast.

The military said the facility is involved in the production of thermobaric warheads for Shahed-type drones and plays a critical role in Russia's airstrike capabilities.

"We confirmed that our munitions hit the target," the General Staff said. "A fire and heavy smoke were detected in the area of the facility." The full extent of the damage is still being assessed.

Russian officials also confirmed drone strikes across several regions.

Yuriy Slyusar, acting governor of Rostov Oblast, said a number of towns in the region were struck by drones. In the city of Azov, the attack reportedly damaged several cars and shattered windows in residential buildings. Debris from one drone allegedly fell onto a local stadium.

In the village of Dolotinka, a drone strike reportedly caused the collapse of a section of a residential apartment building, killing an elderly woman. Authorities said 20 residents were evacuated from the damaged structure.

In Sergiyev Posad in Moscow Oblast, four explosions were reported around 5 a.m. near the Zvezdochka neighborhood, accompanied by the sound of drone engines, according to local residents. Oksana Yerokhanova, head of the district, said a power substation was damaged in the incident.

Two people were injured in Sergiyev Posad, according to Governor Andrei Vorobyov.

Russia's Defense Ministry later claimed that air defense systems had intercepted or destroyed 48 Ukrainian drones overnight. According to the ministry, 26 were downed over Rostov Oblast, 12 over Kursk Oblast, six over Belgorod Oblast, three over Oryol Oblast, and one over Lipetsk Oblast.

The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify these claims.

Ukraine scrambles to clarify extent of US military aid pause and ‘whether everything will continue’

When the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) halted the transfer of critical air defense missiles and other weapons to Ukraine, Kyiv and its partners were caught off-guard and are now left scrambling for clarity on the scope and length of the Trump administration’s decision. The White House confirmed the halt after a July 1 report by Politico said shipments were paused due to concerns over the size of domestic stockpiles. The decision “was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD rev

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Editor's note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Explosions rocked the city of Kyiv for more than seven hours overnight on July 4, as Russia launched a record missile and drone attack targeting the capital and other cities across Ukraine.

At least one person was killed, and 23 others injured in Kyiv. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 14 people had been hospitalized, while Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, in the afternoon confirmed a body had been found during rescue operations.

"Today’s attack was like the worst nightmare come to life," Kyiv resident Olha Vershynina told the Kyiv Independent at the site of damaged residential buildings in the capital's Solomianskyi district. "Because when the strike happened, the lights went out and glass came crashing down on my head.

"It was terrifying. Our entire building was shaking."

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia launched a record 550 drones and missiles during the seven-hour barrage. Kyiv Independent journalists on the ground heard multiple rounds of explosions in the city beginning around 8 p.m. local time on July 3 and continuing into the early hours of July 4

The attack damaged apartment buildings, businesses, a school, a medical facility, railway lines, and other civilian infrastructure in multiple districts. Fires blazed across the city, making the air dangerous to breathe.

Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, warned residents to close their windows due to dangerous levels of "combustion products" in the air.

"Russia, a terrorist country, has wreaked havoc," Tkachenko wrote on Telegram. "The Russians bring nothing but terror and murder. That is a fact."

Liliia Kuzmenko, 23-years-old and eight months pregnant, moved to Kyiv a month ago with her husband from the embattled city of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast.

"The kind of explosions I heard here were unlike anything I heard in Pokrovsk. It’s just beyond words," she told the Kyiv Independent. "Fortunately, everything in our apartment is intact. But in others, the windows were blown out, and everything fell apart."

Ukraine's Air Force reported that Russia had launched a ballistic missile towards Kyiv at around 12:30 a.m, and then additional missiles around 2:30 a.m.

"This time was truly terrifying.," Maria Maznichenko, a pensioner who lives in Kyiv's Solomianskyi district. "The explosions kept coming. Shaheds drones were flying in every minute, like a swarm of bees — one after another. It was very frightening."

As officials reported real-time updates on damage and casualties amid the ongoing assault, Kyiv Independent reporters in the city said that smoke from explosions clogged the air even in neighborhoods far from the attack sites.

The massive assault came hours after a phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, during which Putin reaffirmed that "Russia will continue to pursue its goals" in Ukraine despite calls for a ceasefire from the West.

"The first air raids in our cities and regions began yesterday almost simultaneously with the start of media discussions of President Trump's phone call with Putin," Zelensky said in a post on social media on July 4.

"This was one of the most large-scale air attacks – deliberately massive and cynical... Russia is once again demonstrating that it is not going to end the war and terror."

Tkachenko reported that an earlier drone strike damaged a residential building in the city's Obolon district, causing a fire to break out on the roof.

In the Sviatoshynskyi district, drone wreckage caused fires at storage facilities and hit the courtyard of a 16-story apartment building, Klitschko said. Vehicles in the area caught fire after the attack. Another fire broke out at a business in the district due to falling drone debris.

In the Dniprovskyi district, drone debris fell near a school and several residential buildings, Tkachenko reported.

Fires also broke out in the Solomianskyi district, Klitschko said. An administrative building was in flames after the attack, as were storage facilities and a garage. Debris damaged "non-residential buildings" in the area.

Klitschko reported another fire on the first floor of an 8-story residential building in the Shevchenkivskyi district, but said the building was not inhabited. Another fire broke out at a business in the same district.

A medical facility in the Holosiivskyi district was damaged in the attack, Klitschko said.

Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) said that the attack damaged rail infrastructure in Kyiv and cautioned residents to expect delays due to diverted routes.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that the consular section of Poland's embassy in Kyiv was damaged during Russia's attack on Kyiv. "I just spoke with Ambassador (Piotr) Lukasiewicz; everyone is safe and unharmed," Sikorski said.

He added that Ukraine urgently needs air defense systems.

Russia also targeted other regions of Ukraine with overnight attacks. Downed drones struck property and a vehicle in the city of Poltava, regional Governor Volodymyr Kohut reported. The strike injured two people.

Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities have faced intensified drone and missile strikes in recent weeks, with Russia deploying Iranian-designed Shahed drones in record numbers.

Russia on June 17 launched one of its largest attacks against Kyiv since the start of the full-scale war, killing 28 people and injuring 134 others. Less than a week later, ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones assailed the city in another mass strike.

Ukrainian officials have warned that continued attacks are aimed at wearing down air defense systems and terrorizing civilians.

Despite Russia's escalating attacks and Ukraine's desperate need for air defense munitions, the U.S. has decided to halt shipments of Patriot missiles and other promised weapons to Kyiv, claiming it needs to bolster its own stockpiles.

Ukraine scrambles to clarify extent of U.S. military aid pause and ‘whether everything will continue’

When the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) halted the transfer of critical air defense missiles and other weapons to Ukraine, Kyiv and its partners were caught off-guard and are now left scrambling for clarity on the scope and length of the Trump administration’s decision. The White House confirmed the halt after a July 1 report by Politico said shipments were paused due to concerns over the size of domestic stockpiles. The decision “was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD rev

The Kyiv IndependentAndrea Januta

Ukraine signed a major deal with U.S. company Swift Beat to co-produce hundreds of thousands of drones this year, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 3 during his visit to Denmark.

The long-term strategic partnership agreement was signed by Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Swift Beat, in Denmark on the same day.

Under the deal, the company will produce various kinds of unmanned aerial vehicles for Ukraine, including those designed to intercept Russian drones and missiles, reconnaissance, attack, and other drones, Zelensky said in a statement published on the website of the President's Office.

"The key priority is interceptor drones that have already proven effective in Ukraine," Zelensky said. "We've tested models from several companies, and now we're signing serious contracts."

Swift Beat will increase its production capacity, aiming to produce hundreds of thousands of drones for Ukraine this year, with plans to scale up production in 2026, according to Zelensky.

"Modern drones will be supplied to Ukraine as a priority, on special terms and at cost," Zelensky said.

The announcement comes just a day after the U.S. Defense Department (DOD) has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other weapons previously promised to Kyiv. Ukraine has been trying to negotiate buying U.S. weapons for months after U.S. President Donald Trump, who has opposed military aid to Kyiv, took office in January.

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Swift Beat has a significant presence in Ukraine, according to Zelensky's office. It specializes in autonomous AI-powered drones and cooperates with Ukrainian engineers and the military, conducting drone testing on Ukrainian territory, the statement reads.

Zelensky arrived in Denmark on July 3 to mark the country's assumption of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Zelensky also said that during his visit, he plans to raise the issue of political blockages hindering Ukraine's path to joining the European Union.

"We're ready to open three accession clusters and want to start with one now, in the very near future. But political blockages remain, purely political," he said.

While EU member states agreed to take into account the European Commission's assessment that Ukraine is ready to open the first, Fundamentals cluster, the process remains stalled due to Hungary's refusal to grant unanimous support.

Ukraine applied for EU membership in 2022 and was granted candidate status shortly thereafter, but full negotiations require the approval of all 27 EU member states.

Denmark has been a key backer of Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. In February 2024, Copenhagen signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Kyiv, pledging long-term defense cooperation until Ukraine secures NATO membership.

Zelensky said he expects Denmark to expand its financial support for Ukraine's drone and missile production initiatives.

"What we've just signed requires significant funding. I'm counting on our relationship with Denmark," the president said.

The Ukrainian president will also participate in official events commemorating Denmark's presidency of the Council. According to Danish broadcaster DR, the events will be attended by Denmark's royal family, government officials, and EU leaders.

‘One of Russia’s most critical targets’ — Ukraine confirms strike on missile battery plant in Lipetsk

The Energia plant in Yelets produces parts for ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as batteries for drones and glide bombs. The factory was previously targeted multiple times this past May.

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian ammunition depot in occupied Donetsk Oblast overnight on July 3, setting off a series of huge explosions, Ukraine's State Security Service said on July 3.

"Starting at 10 p.m., explosions rang out at the depots, followed by a powerful secondary detonation of ammunition and a fire," the SBU said in a post on social media.

According to the SBU, the ammunition depot is located in the occupied Ukrainian city of Khartsyzsk, near Donetsk, which is "of important strategic importance, as it is used by the Russians as a rear base."

"The enemy has placed command posts, logistics centers, and ammunition depots there. All of them are legitimate military targets," the statement added.

Unconfirmed videos posted to social media show a fire already burning followed by a large explosion and shockwave.

Elsewhere on July 3, Ukraine confirmed strikes on the Energia factory in Russia's Lipetsk Oblast overnight, a facility that produces components for missiles and drones, including batteries for the Iskander missile system and cruise missiles.

Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Counter-Disinformation Center at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, confirmed the strike, calling Energia "one of the most critical targets for Russia."

According to Kovalenko, the facility manufactures batteries for missile guidance and glider modules, including for the Iskander system and cruise missiles.

Ukraine's military regularly strikes military targets in Russian-occupied territories and deep within Russia in an attempt to diminish Moscow's fighting power as it continues its war against Ukraine.

On the evening of June 30, Ukraine similarly struck a command post of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces in the Russian-occupied part of Donetsk Oblast.

Russia has for months focused its offensive efforts on the embattled town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and has recently been escalating attempts to break through to neighboring Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a region that has not yet seen combat.

BREAKING: Deputy commander of Russian Navy killed in Ukrainian strike in Kursk, Russian official confirms

Major General Mikhail Gudkov also led a brigade involved in combat operations against Ukraine. His death reportedly occurred during a Ukrainian attack on a Russian command post.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Skyeton Prevail Solutions, a joint venture between Ukrainian drone manufacturer Skyeton and U.K.-based defense company Prevail Solutions, will manufacture and supply Raybird drones in the U.K., the two companies announced on July 2.

"Skyeton — a Ukrainian unmanned aircraft systems company with 19 years of engineering pedigree, and Prevail Partners — a leading U.K. defense and security company, announced a joint venture to fast-track the volume manufacture, supply, and support for the integration of its best-in-class drone into U.K. military applications," a statement by the two companies said.

Ukraine has developed drones that have proven to be effective amid the onset of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022 and Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer met in London on June 23, where the two leaders agreed to an "industrial military co-production agreement."

"The joint venture will scale the availability of Raybird with new manufacturing in the U.K. for both deployment in Ukraine and provide the necessary integration expertise from Prevail Partners for U.K. and other Western militaries," the statement said.

U.K. lawmaker Iain Duncan Smith described the move as an "important step" for U.K. drone production.

Skyeton says its Raybird drone has over 350,000 flight hours and is responsible for billions of dollars in Russian losses.

Ukraine has relied on drones to meet its own defense needs, as foreign military aid has fallen short in supplying necessary weapons and air defenses.

Ukraine’s new interceptor UAVs are starting to knock Russia’s long-range Shahed drones out of the sky

Russia’s Shahed drone swarms are pummeling Ukraine on a nightly basis, inflicting ever more death and destruction in cities that had managed to carve out some sense of normalcy amid wartime. Civilian alarm has grown. With traditional air defense stockpiles running low, the government is banking on newly created

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Russia has the capacity to launch as many as 500 Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones at Ukraine in a single attack, but doing so on a daily basis is not possible, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on July 2, according to Suspilne.

In recent weeks, Russia has intensified its drone assaults on Ukrainian cities, often launching hundreds in a single day. The largest aerial attack since the start of the full-scale invasion occurred overnight on June 29, when Moscow launched 477 drones and 60 missiles across Ukraine.

"Launching 450–500 Shaheds every day — it's just not realistic," said Budanov during a ceremony recognizing five Ukrainian intelligence achievements in the national record book, according to public broadcaster Suspilne.

"But unfortunately, they do have the ability to do it periodically. They can realistically launch up to 500 in one strike," Budanov added.

Budanov also said Russia is upgrading the capabilities of the Shahed-type drones by improving their CRPA (Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna) systems, which protect the drones from GPS jamming. He noted that Russian engineers are now producing 16-channel CRPA antennas, which are harder to counter electronically.

"These antennas are currently produced in Russia, but the engineer who developed this CRPA antenna was here in Ukraine," Budanov said.

"Back in the early 2000s, no one here needed it, so the engineer moved to Russia. One (of the two engineers involved in the development) has already died under unclear circumstances. The other is still alive, though probably not for long."

Russia has used thousands of Shahed-type drones throughout its full-scale invasion to strike Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, often in large overnight waves. Ukrainian air defenses have adapted over time but face growing challenges as Moscow improves drone resilience and electronic warfare capabilities.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Moscow has launched 28,743 Shahed-type drones at Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Budanov also said Russia has made unsuccessful attempts to develop its own naval drones. The last known effort came in early June, when experimental models detonated before reaching Ukrainian territorial waters, he said.

"They didn't achieve results. Based on our information, they were heading toward the city of Yuzhne, searching for targets," he said.

Ukraine has been using domestically developed Magura naval drones to target Russian military assets in the Black Sea, keeping much of Russia's fleet pinned in port.

Despite their small size, the unmanned surface vessels have proven effective, including in a May 2 operation when Ukraine's military intelligence used Magura-7 drones armed with air-to-air missiles to shoot down two Russian Su-30 fighter jets near Novorossiysk. It was the first recorded instance of fighter jets being downed by naval drones.

Ukraine shows its latest ‘ship-killer’ Magura drone series to the public for the first time

The Magura drones, as well as the Sea Baby drones of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), were pivotal in turning the tide of the war in the Black Sea, destroying or damaging Russian ships and other assets.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Ukrainian drones struck the Saratovorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast, causing damage to the facility, Ukraine's General Staff reported on July 1.

"An important facility has been hit," the General Staff said via its official Telegram channel.

The Saratovorgsintez refinery and chemical plant, owned by Russian energy giant Lukoil, is located nearly 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukraine's border in the city of Saratov. The city hosts multiple strategic military and industrial sites.

The refinery was targeted to "reduce the enemy's offensive capabilities," the General Staff wrote.

"The occupiers use the capacity of this refinery to supply fuel and lubricants to Russian military units involved in the armed aggression against Ukraine."

The attack was a joint operation carried out by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) and other military units, the General Staff said. A fire broke out at the site of the attack and damage to the refinery's technological installations has been confirmed. The full consequences of the strike are still being investigated.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

The report is the latest in a series of announcements on July 1 about successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets. Earlier in the day, HUR released footage of Ukraine's UJ-26 drones, commonly known as Bober (Beavers), targeting high-value Russian air defenses and a fighter jet in occupied Crimea.

A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian military plant in the city of Izhevsk, over 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) from the front lines.

Ukraine also hit a Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, according to the General Staff.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km from border, SBU source says

Key developments on July 1: * ‘With surgical precision’ — Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km away, SBU source says * Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills brigade commander, injures 30 people, Zelensky says * Ukrainian forces hit Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, General Staff says * Zelensky signs ratification of

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) released on July 1 video footage showing domestically produced drones striking multiple Russian air defense assets and a fighter jet in occupied Crimea in what it described as a successful special operation.

The undated footage shows the combat use of UJ-26 drones, commonly known as Bober (Beavers), targeting high-value Russian military systems.

"These reliable weapons in the hands of HUR special forces are turning critically important Russian targets into useless scrap," the agency said in a statement.

HUR added that the Bober drones are effectively "gnawing through" Russia's expensive air defense systems "like barberries."

The released footage shows that the strikes destroyed or severely damaged several Russian military assets, including a Pantsir-S1 air defense system and its crew, a Niobium-SV radar, a Pechora-3 coastal radar, a Protivnik-GE radar, and a Su-30 fighter jet stationed at the Saky airfield in occupied Crimea.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify HUR's claims.

The strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing efforts to degrade Russian military capabilities in Crimea, which has been under Russian occupation since 2014. Moscow reported Ukrainian drone strikes against the peninsula earlier on July 1, with the Crimean Wind Telegram channel reporting attacks in the vicinity of S-300/S-400 air defense systems.

Ukraine has increasingly deployed new drone systems to target Russian military assets on the front line and deep inside the Russian rear.

Russia-Iran alliance wavers as Tehran suffers major blows

Tehran, Russia’s main ally in the Middle East, has been dealt a heavy blow as Israel dismantled its network of proxies and then struck targets in Iran. The recent Iranian-Israeli war, which ended with a ceasefire on June 24, showed that the regional balance of power has shifted in Israel’s favor. This could have a major impact on Russian-Iranian relations as Moscow will have to recalibrate its approach to the region. Russian-Iranian cooperation is likely to continue but Iran’s ability to help

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

Ukraine's defense technology cluster Brave1 has launched the development of anti-drone rifle rounds, significantly increasing the chances of hitting fast-moving aerial targets, the group said in a statement on June 30.

According to Brave1, the ammunition appears similar to standard rounds used in automatic rifles but features a specially designed warhead that increases the likelihood of shooting down FPV (first-person-view) drones or commercial quadcopters such as the DJI Mavic before they strike.

These types of drones are being used extensively on the battlefield by both Ukrainian and Russian forces. The cost-effective FPV drones have proven highly effective in destroying expensive military equipment.

The manufacturer has already codified the new rounds according to NATO standards, Brave1 said. The goal is to supply every infantry soldier with a magazine of specialized ammunition for use in case of aerial threats.

"These rounds that significantly improve the chances of hitting a moving target are a new development by Brave1," Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

"Our common goal is to ensure that every infantryman has a magazine of such ammunition and can equip his rifle with it in case of an air threat."

Ukraine continues to scale up its drone warfare capabilities. The Defense Ministry said on March 10 that it plans to purchase 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025 at a cost exceeding Hr 110 billion ($2.6 billion), with most of the funds allocated through the Defense Procurement Agency.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has set a goal of producing at least 30,000 long-range drones in 2025.

Tired of military aid delays, Ukraine has designed its own ballistic missile — and it’s already in mass-production

Ukraine announced on June 13 that its short-range Sapsan ballistic missile would go into mass production, a major development in Kyiv’s ongoing efforts to domestically produce the weapons it needs to fight Russia’s full-scale invasion. As Ukraine faces growing challenges in securing weapons from Western partners, and Russia continues launching

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

Editor's note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) struck on June 28 the 1060th Material-Technical Support Center in the city of Bryansk, Ukraine's General Staff said.

The facilities store a Russian missile and drone arsenal, Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing a source in HUR.

Local residents reported hearing explosions and gun fire throughout the morning of June 28. Pictures posted on social media show smoke billowing from the area of where the centre, formerly the the 120th arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate, is located in an industrial area in the southern part of the city.

The General Staff said it was assessing the strike as extent of the damage was not immediately clear.

Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz acknowledged a drone attack on the region overnight claiming that four civilians were injured in the attack, damaging ten homes and a vehicle.

Later in the morning, Bogomaz claimed that all the drones had been downed by Russian air defense unit in a separate attack, claiming that no damage had been inflicted. He did not mention the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate in his comments.

The Kyiv Independent cannot immediately verify the reports or claims made by Russian officials.

Bryansk Oblast, located in Russia's far-west, borders Ukraine's Chernihiv and Sumy Oblast, and has been the target of various Ukrainian strikes.

Ukraine's military regularly conducts strikes onto Russian and Russian-occupied territory.

Drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck the Kirovske military airfield in occupied Crimea overnight on June 28, the SBU told the Kyiv Independent. The attack destroyed Mi-8, Mi-26 and Mi-28 attack helicopters, and a Pantsyr-S1 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile and gun system, the SBU claimed.

Ukrainian drone strike on Crimea air base destroys 3 Russian helicopters, SBU claims

The attack destroyed Mi-8, Mi-26 and Mi-28 attack helicopters, and a Pantsyr-S1 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile and gun system, the Security Service of Ukraine told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on June 27 imposing sanctions on 52 Russian citizens as well as an additional 34 Russian companies and one Chinese entity involved in the production of Shahed-type drones and chip manufacturing machinery.

Ukraine introduced new restrictions as Russia has escalated drone attacks against Ukrainian cities over the past weeks, launching upwards of 400-500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) per night.

Individuals and legal entities subject to Ukrainian sanctions cannot do business and trade in Ukraine, cannot withdraw their capital from the country. In the meantime, their assets are blocked, as well as their access to public and defense procurement, and entry into the territory of Ukraine, among other restrictions.

Andrii Yermak, head of the Presidential Office, said on Telegram that the sanction primarily enterprises and individuals collaborating with a Shahed manufacturing facility located in the town of Yelbuga in Russia's Tatarstan.

Russia has launched thousands of cheap but effective Iranian-designed Shahed drones against Ukraine since the fall of 2022. Originally designed in Iran, Russia has since produced its own Shahed-type drones on Russian territory.

Drones have become one of the defining tools of the full-scale war, used extensively by both Ukraine and Russia for surveillance, long-range strikes, and tactical battlefield advantage.

Earlier in the day, Zelensky signed a decree to coordinate sanctions against Russia with international partners, particularly the European Union and the Group of Seven (G7).

EU reportedly fails to adopt new Russia sanctions due to Hungarian, Slovak opposition

Unlike Ukraine-skeptic Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovakia has not previously attempted to block EU sanctions.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Ukrainian companies have increased their industrial capacity to produce four million drones a year, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said at a June 26 press briefing.

The statement comes as Ukraine seeks to increase domestic arms production amid uncertainty over further U.S. support and reduced dependence on supplies from European partners.

Ukrainian manufacturers will supply four million drones to the front line this year, while the Ukrainian army has already received up to 1.5 million drones as of the end of June, according to Umerov.

The minister said that brigades made many requests for direct funding last year, with a commitment secured for 2025. The government is currently allocating Hr 2.5 billion ($60 million) per month for direct procurement teams, he added.

In the meantime, Umerov said that not all brigades spend money due to a lack of procurement specialists, so the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) launched the DOT Chain Defense marketplace for Ukrainian soldiers

"The teams see a 'marketplace' of drones: each team orders what it needs, and the healthcare organization pays for it. This way we significantly reduce all the bureaucracy, and the teams get what they need ten times faster," Umerov said.

Russian drone strikes across Ukraine have been breaking records in recent weeks, with nearly 500 drones and missiles launched overnights.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has focused heavily on developing and deploying advanced unmanned systems. As of April 2025, more than 95% of drones used by Ukrainian forces on the front line are domestically produced.

Both Ukraine and Russia have increasingly relied on drone warfare, employing aerial, naval, and ground-based drones for reconnaissance and combat operations – making technological innovation a critical component of the war.

Russia pulls its scientists out of Iranian nuclear plant, as Israeli strikes threaten decades of collaboration

Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have alarmed none more than Russia, the country that first brought nuclear power to Iran in defiance of Western objections. We’re “millimeters from catastrophe,” said Kremlin spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on June 18 in response to a bombing campaign that Israel launched against Iran on June 13. Decades of conflict with the West have united Iran and Russia, despite a cultural gulf between the two nations that dwarfs the Caspian Sea that physically di

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

A Chinese journalist was reportedly injured in a drone strike near Russia's border with Ukraine in Kursk Oblast, acting governor Alexander Khinshtein said on June 27.

According to Khinshtein, 63-year-old reporter Lu Yuguang from the Chinese television network Phoenix TV was wounded in a Ukrainian drone strike on the village of Korenevo in Russia's Kursk Oblast. He sustained an open head injury and a contusion on the parietal region of his skull, but later declined hospitalization after being examined at a regional hospital, Khinshtein wrote on Telegram.

"Fortunately, the journalist received skin wounds on the head. No other damage was found," the governor said, adding, "Please refrain from traveling to the border area, it can be dangerous."

If confirmed, this would be the first publicly reported case of a Chinese journalist being injured in Russia's Kursk Oblast as a result of cross-border drone strikes amid Moscow's full-scale war against Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claims.

Ukrainian forces launched a cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024, marking the first large-scale invasion of Russian territory by foreign troops since World War II. The move was intended to disrupt a planned Russian offensive targeting Ukraine's Sumy Oblast and to relieve pressure on the Donetsk front.

Since then, Ukraine claims it has inflicted 63,402 Russian troop casualties in the oblast, including 25,625 killed and 971 captured. Ukrainian forces also say they have destroyed or damaged over 5,664 pieces of Russian military equipment in the area.

Russia retook most of the lost territory during a renewed offensive in March 2025, supported by North Korean troops.

North Korea likely to send more troops to Russia by August, South Korea says

Pyongyang has already begun recruiting soldiers for deployment to Russia, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Ukrainian drones struck air defense equipment in Russian-occupied Crimea, damaging radar units and components of the S-400 Triumph system, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) claimed on June 26.

The drone strike was carried out by the agency's "Ghosts" unit, HUR said. Video footage of the operation published on HUR's official Telegram channel shows the trajectory of multiple drones as they approach and hit their targets.

The attack damaged "critical and expensive components" of Russia's S-400 Triumph air defense system, including two 92N2E multifunctional control radars, two 91N6E detection radars, and an S-400 launcher, according to HUR.

"Radars are the 'eyes' of the enemy's air defense system. Without them, anti-aircraft systems become combat ineffective," HUR wrote.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

Earlier this month, the Atesh partisan group reported that a Ukrainian drone attack hit Russian military facilities near Simferopol. The group claimed on June 13 that Ukrainian drone attacks likely hit a Russian air defense system.

Ukraine has previously carried out successful attacks on S-400 radar systems in Crimea and other regions, including Russia's Belgorod Oblast. Kyiv regularly launches strikes on military and industrial targets in both Russia and Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.

Russia has illegally occupied Crimea since 2014, transforming the peninsula into a heavily militarized stronghold. Moscow uses the region to support its war in Ukraine, launching missiles from the Black Sea and exploiting the peninsula as a key logistics and transport hub.

The Kerch Airport in Crimea has also been repurposed from civilian to military use, with Moscow-backed proxies transferring part of the airport's land to the Russian Defense Ministry in spring 2025, according to an investigation by Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe.

Ukraine war latest: Russia’s advance in Sumy Oblast ‘halted’; Kyiv, Moscow carry out POW swap

Key developments on June 26: * “50,000 Russian troops pinned down” — Ukraine halts advance in Sumy Oblast, summer offensive “faltering,” Syrskyi says * Ukraine, Russia conduct new POW swap under Istanbul deal * North Korea likely to send more troops to Russia by August, South Korea says * Explosions reported in Moscow, Russia

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk