Australia has, for the first time, imposed sanctions on Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, targeting 60 vessels used to circumvent international sanctions and sustain the Kremlin's war effort in Ukraine, the Australian government said on June 18.

The move aligns Canberra with similar measures introduced by the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union.

Australia's Foreign Ministry said the sanctioned vessels operate under "deceptive practices, including flag-hopping, disabling tracking systems and operating with inadequate insurance," enabling illicit Russian oil trade that undermines international sanctions.

"Russia uses these vessels to circumvent international sanctions and sustain its illegal and immoral war against Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement.

With this move, Australia has now sanctioned more than 1,400 Russian individuals and entities since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the government said.

The step comes amid the continued operation of Russia's shadow fleet. According to a recent study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), Russia currently operates 435 tankers outside the control of Western regulators to evade sanctions such as the G7-EU price cap on Russian oil.

These vessels are typically un- or underinsured and pose a rising environmental risk due to their age and operational opacity.

KSE estimates that as of April 2024, 83% of Russia's crude oil and 46% of its petroleum product exports were shipped using shadow fleet tankers. The study warns that this undermines the effectiveness of Western sanctions and increases the likelihood of maritime disasters, as many of these ships fall outside international safety and insurance standards.

The EU formally adopted its 17th sanctions package against Russia in May, sanctioning nearly 200 vessels tied to the shadow fleet. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the new measures also target hybrid threats and human rights violations, with more sanctions under consideration.

Some EU member states and observers have criticized the package for lacking stronger provisions to disrupt Russia's sanction evasion schemes.

Now, the EU seeks to approve its 18th sanctions package, which will add 77 more shadow fleet vessels to comply with the cap to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions and propose imposing a ban on imports of petroleum products made from Russian oil.

The United States has signaled reluctance to pursue additional sanctions despite Moscow's continued aggression in Ukraine and rejection of ceasefire proposals supported by Western allies.

Putin ‘cannot be trusted’ as mediator, Kallas says, urges EU to tighten Russian oil cap after deadly Kyiv strike

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas urged the European Union to press forward with lowering the oil price cap on Russian crude, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia’s revenues.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Speaking at the G7 summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy argued that Russia intensified its nightly aerial campaigns as the primary tactical adjustment since Donald Trump returned to the White House, with drone swarms becoming routine rather than exceptional.

According to Zelenskyy, Russia now routinely deploys 100 drones per night against Ukrainian targets, a scale that would have been shocking a year ago.

“If last year the use of 100 ‘Shaheds’ in one night caused real shock, now it already seems unusual if fewer than 100 drones are used in one attack,” the Ukrainian leader stated.

The president characterized this intensification as “the only real change in Russia’s behavior after the change of US president,” suggesting Moscow has adapted its military strategy to the new political landscape in Washington.

“And it proves that those who support new and stronger sanctions against Russia are absolutely right,” Zelenskyy added.

Meanwhile, during the G7 leaders meeting in Canada, Trump told reporters he would not approve new sanctions against Russia, citing them as costly for the US and still expressing hope for a potential peace deal.

The Ukrainian president, however, addressed stalled diplomatic efforts, noting that while the US and President Trump had proposed ceasefires and negotiations, “Russia blocked all efforts.” He urged continued pressure on Trump to leverage his influence with Putin to end the war.

Zelenskyy argued that Russia continues its military operations without facing adequate consequences, making the case for stronger international sanctions.

He specifically called on G7 members to work with the United States to implement a $30 per barrel price cap on Russian oil and to maintain $40 billion in annual budget support for Ukraine.

“Together, we must make this painful for Russia. The EU’s 18th round of sanctions should also hit Russia’s energy and banking sectors,” Zelenskyy said.

The United States, however, is blocking European efforts to lower the G7 price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, despite EU and UK pressure to reduce Moscow’s war funding. The proposed reduction is part of Europe’s latest sanctions package aimed at cutting deeper into Russian oil profits used to finance the Ukraine invasion, but the final decision rests with President Trump, who has shown no flexibility on the issue.

Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot be trusted" to mediate peace in the Middle East while continuing to launch brutal attacks against civilians, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said on June 17, following a mass Russian strike on Kyiv that killed at least 21 people and injured over 130.

"Clearly, President Putin is not somebody who can talk about peace while we see actions like this,” Kallas said during a briefing in Brussels. "He's not a mediator that can really be considered. Russia cannot be a mediator if they don't really believe in peace."

Russia has sought to position itself as a potential mediator in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on June 17 that Israel appeared unwilling to accept Russia’s offer of mediation.

President Donald Trump said on June 15 that Putin had expressed willingness to help mediate between Tel Aviv and Tehran — an idea already dismissed by France. EU leaders have also questioned Moscow’s neutrality given its deep military ties with Iran, which has supplied Russia with drones and missiles used in attacks on Ukraine.

Kallas also pointed to Iran's role in enabling Russia's attacks. "Iran has helped Russia do these attacks… their cooperation is working in this regard," she said.

Kallas urged the European Union to press forward with lowering the oil price cap on Russian oil, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia's revenues.

"The whole idea of the oil price cap is to lower the prices," Kallas said. "We shouldn't end up in a situation where the crisis in the Middle East increases oil prices and makes Russia earn more… that would mean they can fund their war machine on a bigger scale."

Her warning comes after global oil prices soared on June 13, following an Israeli strike on Iran that raised fears of a broader regional conflict. Brent and Nymex crude prices surged more than 10% before stabilizing around 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to restrict Russia’s wartime revenues, which heavily depend on oil exports.

Earlier, Kallas said the EU can act independently to lower the oil price ceiling, noting that most Russian crude flows through European-controlled waters.

"Even if the Americans are not on board, we can still do it and have an impact," she said.

Her remarks come as the EU works on its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia's energy, banking, and defense sectors. The 17th package entered into force on May 20. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said new measures will further target Russia's war-sustaining supply chains.

Kallas spoke hours after one of Russia's deadliest attacks on Kyiv since the start of its full-scale invasion. The nearly nine-hour assault saw Moscow fire 472 aerial weapons, including over 280 Shahed drones and multiple cruise and ballistic missiles.

Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 428 targets, but several missiles hit residential buildings, including a nine-story apartment block in Solomianskyi district, where 16 people were killed.

President Volodymyr Zelensky called the assault "one of the most horrifying attacks on Kyiv" and again called on Western leaders to act decisively.

After 3 years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe finally lays out road map to detox from Russian oil and gas

After three years of limited measures and political hangovers, the European Union has laid out a legal roadmap to finally end its long-standing addiction to Russian oil and gas. Under a new legislative proposal announced in Strasbourg on June 17, Brussels aims to cut off all remaining imports of Russian

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

It is time to say no to Russian resources. The G7 countries should completely stop purchasing energy from Russia, replacing it with Canadian alternatives, said John Kirton. He is the head of the G7 research group at the University of Toronto, UkrInform reports.

“It is necessary for the G7 to continue pressuring India to stop purchasing Russian oil,” the expert says.

But it is equally important for the G7 countries to completely abandon imports of Russian energy resources, such as oil, coal, gas, and uranium.

“Canada, which holds the fifth-largest oil reserves in the world and is among the top three uranium producers, can help,” Kirton continues.

He emphasizes that Canada “can supply the US with all necessary isotopes so they do not depend on Russia or even Kazakhstan.”

“Although Kazakhstan may ultimately be closer to us than to Russia,” the expert believes.

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plan to meet during the G7 summit. This meeting will be their first encounter since April, when they had a 15-minute conversation before Pope Francis’ funeral.

After that meeting, Trump stated that Russia had no justification for recent attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas and suggested that the Russian leader might not want to end the war. Following the meeting, there were talks about imposing new sanctions on Russia, but the US did not enact them.

After their conversation, Moscow launched the largest attack on Ukraine’s city of Kremenchuk, targeting an oil refinery and the thermal power plant. Witnesses say the skies over the town turned red during 30 strikes. Ukraine extinguished the fire for at least eight hours.

Putin calls to congratulate Trump on his birthday — then launches hypersonic missiles on small Ukrainian city in one of largest attacks of war

An uninsured Russian Aframax-class tanker has been illegally conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in international waters near Greece and Cyprus since July 2024, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on June 16.

According to the agency, the vessel, operating without Western insurance, is part of Russia's expanding shadow fleet used to bypass G7 and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports.

HUR said such transfers "pose an environmental threat, allow the aggressor to conceal the origin of oil, evade international control, and ensure its supply to third countries in circumvention of sanctions."

Ukraine has identified the tanker as IMO 9247443 and listed it on the War&Sanctions platform, along with 159 other tankers allegedly belonging to Russia's shadow fleet and 55 captains involved in sanction-busting operations.

Despite price caps and Western restrictions, Russia continues to profit from oil and gas exports, which remain a vital revenue source. According to HUR estimates, roughly one-third of those profits are expected to fund Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025.

In May, the EU approved its 17th sanctions package, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet vessels. The U.S. Treasury had earlier sanctioned over 180 tankers, which together accounted for nearly half of Russia's offshore oil shipments.

While the Biden administration ramped up pressure on Russia's oil trade early in 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump has since declined to impose new sanctions, despite Moscow's continued refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

The United States is blocking European efforts to cut the G7 price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, frustrating EU and UK attempts to ramp up pressure on Moscow’s war financing, Bloomberg reports.

The EU and UK could consider lowering the cap without the US, according to one of Bloomberg’s sources. The US, however, is not shifting its stance on the oil cap despite calls from the European Union and the UK to lower the limit. The proposal, aimed at reducing Russian oil revenues used to sustain its war against Ukraine, faces US resistance just ahead of the Group of Seven summit in Canada.

Trump again blames both Ukraine and Russia for failing to reach a peace deal

People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the final decision on any change rests with President Donald Trump. However, those sources said there has been no indication of flexibility from Washington since the US position was set during a G7 finance ministers’ meeting earlier this year.

Europe’s proposal forms part of latest sanctions package

The push to reduce the cap to $45 per barrel is part of the EU’s new sanctions package against Russia. The measure is intended to limit Russia’s capacity to fund its ongoing invasion of Ukraine by cutting deeper into its oil profits.

Given that most Russian oil shipments pass near European waters, unilateral European action could still have some impact. However, officials acknowledge that a coordinated G7 effort involving the US would be significantly more effective, largely because of US enforcement capabilities.

Oil prices, which had fallen below the $60 G7 ceiling, surged following Israeli strikes on Iran. 

Israel’s attack on Iran may have revived Moscow’s oil revenues for war

The current $60 per barrel cap was originally introduced by the G-7 as part of broader sanctions designed to curb Russian revenue while maintaining global supply. Enforcement of this cap relies heavily on G7 members, especially the US, which has extensive influence over global shipping and insurance mechanisms.

On 12 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a new phase of government discussions on the State Rearmament Program for 2027–2036, with the agenda focused on advancing air defense, space systems, drone capabilities, and robotic technologies, according to a 13 June report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The overhaul is part of Russia’s preparation for a prolonged war with Ukraine and potential future conflict with NATO, the think tank says.

During the meeting, Putin claimed that Russia’s air defense systems had ostensibly intercepted over 80,000 aerial targets since February 2022. Of these, 7,500 were described as operational-tactical and cruise missiles, which Putin said were “almost all” Western-made. He argued that Russia’s war in Ukraine demonstrated the need for a “universal air defense system” that can counter all types of projectiles.

Focus on AI, space capabilities, real-time command systems, naval rebuilding

Putin also emphasized the necessity for advanced digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) to be deeply embedded in Russian military systems. He outlined goals to develop a fleet of new, unspecified spacecraft aimed at improving reconnaissance and enabling real-time command and control capabilities. The Kremlin is also investing in the modernization of the Russian Navy and seeking to rebuild the Black Sea Fleet, which has suffered heavy losses due to Ukrainian attacks.

“Putin’s statements regarding the need for enhanced Russian air defense systems are likely in part a response to Ukraine’s ‘Operation Spider Web,’ in which Ukrainian forces demonstrated an ability to achieve operational surprise and launch drones against airbases in Russia’s deep rear, highlighting the inability of air defenses in these areas to repel short-range Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drone strikes,” ISW wrote.

Oil revenues may factor into strategy

Despite its ambitions, Russia’s ability to finance the vast rearmament remains unclear, ISW says. According to the think tank, the country’s defense industrial base (DIB) had already struggled with fulfilling both domestic and foreign military contracts before Western sanctions were imposed in 2022 in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

 ISW suggests that rising oil prices—partly triggered by Israeli strikes against Iran—could help Russia finance some of its military goals if those prices remain elevated over the medium- to long-term.

Israel’s attack on Iran may have revived Moscow’s oil revenues for war

The think tank concludes that the Kremlin is likely using battlefield lessons from its war in Ukraine to “inform adaptations of Russia’s military and preparing Russia’s DIB for a protracted war against Ukraine and a potential confrontation with NATO.”

The United States is opposing a proposal by other Group of Seven nations to lower the price cap on Russian oil, Bloomberg reported on June 13.

Citing unnamed sources, Bloomberg said the U.S. remains opposed to reducing the cap from $60 to $45 per barrel – a position it first took earlier this year when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined to support a similar effort.

The price cap, introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

Despite U.S. resistance, the European Union and United Kingdom – backed by other European G7 countries and Canada – have said they are prepared to move forward with the proposal, even without Washington's endorsement.

One source told Bloomberg that the EU and U.K. could explore lowering the cap without the U.S., as most of Russia's oil is transported in European waters. However, a unified G7 agreement would carry greater impact if it could be enforced by the U.S.

The price cap debate has become more urgent as oil prices, which had fallen below the $60 cap in recent months, surged following Israel's strikes against Iran in the past 24 hours.

G7 leaders will revisit the price cap discussion during the upcoming summit, hosted by Canada from June 15-17 in Kananaskis County, Alberta.

The summit agenda will also include topics such as support for Ukraine in the Russian war, global economic stability, digital transformation, and climate change.

The G7 currently includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The European Union is also represented in the group.

Israel-Iran war could provide economic boost Russia needs to continue fight against Ukraine

Israel’s “preemptive” strikes against Iran targeting the country’s nuclear program and killing top military officials could have far-reaching implications for Ukraine and could boost Russia’s ability to continue its full-scale invasion, experts have told the Kyiv Independent. Iran has been one of Russia’s staunchest allies throughout the war, providing thousands

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Oil prices surged by up to 14% following Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets, Bloomberg reported on 13 June. The escalation immediately rattled global energy markets, with crude benchmarks jumping sharply amid fears of wider conflict in the Persian Gulf.

Crude markets react to military escalation in the Middle East

According to Bloomberg, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude topped $77 per barrel at one stage—the biggest intraday gain since May 2020—before easing to around $73. European natural gas also rallied, while gold approached record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Israel targets Iranian nuclear and missile facilities

Last night, Israel struck multiple locations across Iran, including the Natanz nuclear site and facilities in Tabriz. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes were aimed at neutralizing Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and confirmed that the campaign would continue. Hours later, the Israel Defense Forces stated that Iran responded with a wave of over 100 drones, and further missile retaliation was anticipated.

OPEC+ and IEA prepare for potential supply crisis

Analysts at SEB AB told Bloomberg that markets are not factoring in deep damage to Iranian infrastructure or full disruption through Hormuz. Still, the International Energy Agency has confirmed its readiness to release emergency reserves if needed. Meanwhile, OPEC+—with most spare capacity located in the Gulf—could raise production to stabilize prices, should the situation deteriorate further.

Russia’s reliance on oil and gas exports

In 2024, Russia’s oil and gas sector accounted for about 30 % of its federal budget revenue. Meanwhile, Russia’s military spending in 2025 is projected at 7.7 % of GDP and 12% increase against 2024—reflecting a highly militarized economy prioritizing arms and war-related production.

Global oil prices soared on June 13  after Israel launched a strike on Iran, triggering fears of a broader conflict in the energy-rich Middle East that could disrupt global supplies, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to choke off a vital revenue stream for Russia, which relies heavily on oil profits to sustain its war in Ukraine.

According to the BBC, Brent and Nymex crude prices jumped by more than 10% following the Israeli attack, reaching their highest levels since January. Prices later stabilized but remained about 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20.

The price surge comes at a crucial time for Ukraine and its Western allies, who are intensifying efforts to minimize the Kremlin's oil revenues — the backbone of Russia's wartime economy.

President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the European Union on June 11 to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, including a more aggressive price cap on oil exports.

"A ceiling of $45 per barrel of oil is better than $60, that's clear," Zelensky said at the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit in Odesa. "But real peace will come with a ceiling of $30. That's the level that will really change the mindset in Moscow."

The EU's current $60 per barrel cap, introduced in December 2022, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or servicing Russian oil sold above the threshold. While this measure has curtailed some of Russia's profits, the Kremlin continues to earn significant revenue, especially when market prices rise.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on June 10 that the EU is considering lowering the cap to $45, a move that will be discussed at the G7 summit in Canada between June 15 and 17. According to Reuters, most G7 countries, excluding the U.S. and Japan, are prepared to proceed with the reduction regardless of Washington’s stance.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early on June 13 that Israeli forces had launched "Operation Rising Lion," a preemptive strike targeting Iran's nuclear program. In a televised address, Netanyahu claimed Israeli forces struck Iran's main nuclear enrichment site in Natanz and targeted key nuclear scientists.

Key to Russia’s defeat lies in its economy

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, attention remains fixed on the battlefield. But Russia’s most vulnerable flank is not in the trenches — it’s in the treasury. The West, and especially the United States, holds economic levers that could push Vladimir Putin toward serious negotiations or even collapse

The Kyiv IndependentWojciech Jakóbik

Most Group of Seven (G7) nations are prepared to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 a barrel even without support from the United States, Reuters reported on June 12, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

According to Reuters, the European Union and United Kingdom, backed by other European G7 countries and Canada, are ready to lead the charge in lowering the Russian oil price cap – even if U.S. President Donald Trump opts out.

The price cap, which bans Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel, was first introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine.

The G7 had previously attempted to lower the Russian oil price cap; however, the proposal was dropped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly declined to support it.

It is unclear whether the U.S. will support the decision this time around. Japan's position is also undecided.

Participating country leaders will revisit the price cap discussion at the upcoming G7 summit. Canada, which holds the G7 presidency this year, will host the summit on June 15-17 in Kananaskis County, located in the western province of Alberta.

The summit agenda will include topics such as support for Ukraine in the Russian war, global economic stability, digital transformation, and climate change.

President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend the summit and seek a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.

EU could impose Russian oil price cap without US support, Kallas says

The European Union can impose an additional price cap on Russian oil without U.S. support, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said at the Brussels Forum on June 11.

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn

The European Union can impose an additional price cap on Russian oil without U.S. support, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said at the Brussels Forum on June 11.

"If you think about the oil going through the channels, it's mostly Europe, it's via the Baltic Sea, it's via the Black Sea. So even if the Americans are not on board, we can still do it and have an impact," Kallas said.

The EU's 17th package of sanctions against Russia came into effect on May 20. The bloc is already working on its next wave of sanctions.

The 18th EU sanctions package will include additional restrictions on energy, banking, oil, and other areas, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on June 10.

"What the intelligence tells is that, now the sanctions will (harder hit) the supply chains of Russia needed to really fund this war," Kallas said.

"Of course, it is important the United States... is together with us, and we have been operating together for quite some time," she said.

Kallas noted the Group of Seven (G7) oil price cap was previously agreed upon to be 5% below the market price.

"It is important, of course, what we do together, but it is also equally important for us what we do alone, because we alone are also a player," Kallas said.

Kallas noted the EU is still an ally to the U.S., but recognized the dynamic between the two powers is changing.

"We still value the relationship... I think with the Americans we are not growing apart, but growing up in our relationships," Kallas said.

The upcoming G7 summit will take place in Alberta, Canada. A wide range of topics, including Russia's war against Ukraine, are expected to be discussed at the annual event.

President Volodymyr Zelensky previously confirmed he would be attending the G7 summit after receiving an invitation from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

‘Ukrainians have been stripped of illusion of control’ — Filmmaker Kateryna Gornostai on Russia’s war, cinema and reclaiming the narrative

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, film director Kateryna Gornostai found herself questioning whether she would continue working. “I had this feeling that life — at least professionally — had come to an end,” she says. “Who needed directors or screenwriters, then? At most, volunteers were needed, but hardly anyone

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 11 called on the European Union to impose tougher sanctions against Russia, arguing that stronger financial pressure is necessary to curb Moscow's war effort.

Speaking at the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit in Odesa, Zelensky said the upcoming 18th EU sanctions package "could be stronger," especially in targeting Russian oil tankers and the financial sector. He urged the EU to further reduce the price cap on Russian oil exports.

"A ceiling of $45 per barrel of oil is better than $60, that's clear, that's true. But real peace will come with a ceiling of $30," he said. "That's the level that will really change the mindset in Moscow."

After the 17th package of sanctions against Russia took effect on May 20, Ukraine's allies announced the following day that another round of restrictions was already in the works.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on June 10 that the EU is considering lowering the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel — a measure that will be discussed at the upcoming G7 summit in Canada on June 15–17.

The Kremlin's budget is increasingly strained by soaring military expenditures, with Russia's Finance Ministry relying heavily on energy revenues to fund the war against Ukraine.

The push for tighter sanctions comes as Russia continues to reject ceasefire proposals and presses forward with military operations. Zelensky warned that Odesa remains one of Russia's "main targets," with plans to push beyond it toward the borders with Romania and Moldova.

"Russia wants to destroy it, as it has done with countless cities and villages in the occupied territories," he said. "Russian military plans point to this region — Odesa — and then to the border with Moldova and Romania."

Odesa is a major port city in southern Ukraine, located on the northwestern coast of the Black Sea. The president warned of possible destabilization efforts in the broader region, comparing the Kremlin's strategy to its previous interference in the Balkans.

"We saw this before in the Balkans, where Russia intensified interethnic friction, carried out sabotage, and even attempted coups," Zelensky said.

The Odesa summit was attended by several southeastern European leaders, including Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Romania's newly elected President Nicusor Dan.

Vucic's trip marked his first official visit to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

Ukrainian drones strike targets in Russia, including gunpowder plant, General Staff says

The Tambov Gunpowder Plant, one of Russia’s main manufacturers of gunpowder and explosives for small arms, artillery, and rocket systems, reportedly caught fire following the drone strike.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

The price cap on Russian oil should be cut from $60 to $30 per barrel in order to pressure Moscow to declare a ceasefire, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on June 10.

Zelensky's comments come after the European Commission unveiled its 18th package of sanctions against Russia, including a proposed reduction in the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel.

The proposed EU sanctions are a step in "the right direction," Zelensky said, but stronger measures are needed.

"Russia’s ability to continue the war is equal to its ability to sell its oil and bypass financial barriers," the president said.

"That is why it is necessary ... to do everything possible to keep the price of Russian oil lower than they can withstand. Each of the partners knows what price cap is needed — $30, no higher. Such a price level will mean real pressure on Russia – they should be forced to seek peace."

The current price cap on Russian oil was introduced by the Group of Seven (G7) and EU in December 2022 as a mechanism to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance the full-scale war in Ukraine. The measure bans Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

The EU planned to discuss further cuts to the price cap at a G7 summit in May, but the U.S. reportedly blocked the proposal, according to the Financial Times (FT).

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on June 10 that the amendments to the price cap proposed in the new sanctions package will be discussed at the G7 summit to be held on June 15-17.

Zelensky called the EU's proposed cap of $45-per-barrel a "compromise price."

"Enough compromises with Russia. Every such compromise is a postponement of peace. We are asking for a real reduction in the price of Russian oil, which would bring us closer to ending the war," he said.

Russia's attacks on Ukraine are escalating, Zelensky said, necessitating the urgent need for stronger international pressure and tightened economic restrictions.

"It is vital that there is no silence in response to the Russian escalation, and it is obvious that there is an escalation," he said.

"Russia has been steadily increasing the number of lethal weapons in strikes for months now."

The president's comments come after Russia launched one of the largest aerial attacks against Kyiv throughout the full-scale war. The night before, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 479 Russian drones and missiles in a record-breaking strike.

As Russia inches closer to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, new Ukrainian region might soon be at war

Moscow said its troops had crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and were conducting offensive operations in the region, a claim Kyiv quickly denied as “Russian disinformation.” Russian troops have been pushing toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for months, trying to solidify the southern flank to capture Pokrovsk and the remaining parts of the

The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

Today, there is interesting news from the Middle East.

Here, OPEC has made a decisive move to punish member states violating production quotas by ramping up output and pushing oil prices to new lows. As the global markets react, the shockwaves hit Russia the hardest, with its economy, already strangled by sanctions and inflation, now gasping for air under the weight of collapsing revenues and shrinking influence within the oil cartel.

OPEC+ raises output, sending oil prices tumbling

Recently, OPEC+ announced plans for a significant increase in oil production for July, adding 411,000 barrels per day. This is the third consecutive monthly hike, and the move aims to regain market share, and discipline overproducing members like Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan. Despite the risk of oversupply, the group, led by Saudi Arabia, is prioritizing volume over price to reassert its influence in the global oil market, building on its previous decision not to increase prices.

The immediate effect of this decision has been a notable decline in oil prices. Brent Crude, sourced from the North Sea, has fallen to approximately 65 dollars per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate produced in the United States is trading around 63 dollars, marking the lowest levels since early 2021. Analysts anticipate that this trend may continue, with forecasts suggesting that Brent Crude could hold the same reduced price for the entire year. Goldman Sachs projects that oil prices might average 60 dollars per barrel this year and potentially dip to 56 dollars in 2026. In more extreme scenarios, where global economic conditions worsen significantly, prices could even fall below 50 dollars per barrel.

Russian crude slides below budgeted threshold

For Russia, these developments pose significant challenges. As of early June 2025, the price of Russian Urals crude oil has fallen below 50 dollars per barrel, marking its lowest level since June 2023. Specifically, in April, Urals crude was priced at around 47.50 dollars. This is extremely below the 70-dollar benchmark used in the initial Russian budget planning for the year. It is estimated that each 10-dollar drop in oil prices costs Russia approximately 17 billion dollars annually. The resulting revenue gap of around 40 billion dollars is expected to widen the deficit to 10% of the projected Russian annual budget of approximately 415 billion dollars.

Gulf states challenge Russia in Asia

Moreover, Russia’s position in the Asian oil market is under threat. While Russia has been exporting discounted oil to countries like India and China, with the massive increase in production, other OPEC+ members are also targeting these markets, increasing competition and potentially driving prices even lower, while at the same time offering better quality oil compared to the Russians. This increased competition in Asia could erode Russia’s market share and further impact its oil revenues.

Russia’s influence within OPEC+ declines

Additionally, Russia’s influence within OPEC+ appears to be waning. The recent production increases have been driven primarily by Saudi Arabia, with Russia reportedly unhappy about these hikes. This shift suggests that Gulf states are increasingly dictating policy according to their own interests, potentially sidelining Russia in the decision-making process.

Sanctions, tariffs, and strikes cripple Moscow’s oil prospects

Russia is unlikely to benefit from increased production due to several factors. Tougher sanctions that get enforced more and more vigorously, price caps aimed to cripple the Russian oil revenue, and damaged refining capabilities, courtesy of Ukrainian precision strikes, limit Russia’s ability to capitalize on higher output. Furthermore, the production cost of Urals crude is higher compared to Brent Crude, as well as Brent having higher quality and being easier to refine into gasoline and diesel. There is also constant uncertainty about new sanctions coming soon, including a 500% secondary tariff being actively discussed in the US Senate, which would target countries buying oil and other natural resources from Russia. All this makes Russian oil less competitive in the global market and ruins all plans that have been made for the Russian budget, which is already under enough stress due to the ongoing war efforts in Ukraine.

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Hungary and Slovakia continue to rely heavily on Russian oil, gas, and nuclear fuel, despite having technical and economic capacity to switch to alternative sources, according to a detailed joint report by the Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD, Bulgaria) and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA, Finland). Both countries “have shown no real intention of phasing out Russian crude oil,” the report states. Similar conclusions are made regarding the Russian gas and nuclear projects.

The report, titled The Last Mile. Phasing Out Russian Oil and Gas in Central Europe, reveals that both countries have used EU sanctions exemptions not as a path to energy independence, but as a shield to deepen ties with Russian suppliers, significantly undermining EU unity and energy security strategy.

No real effort to reduce Russian dependency

The report presents a stark picture: Hungary and Slovakia have not reduced their imports of Russian oil and gas since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On the contrary, Hungary increased its Russian crude reliance from 61% in 2021 to 86% in 2024. Slovakia’s dependence remained at nearly 87% that same year. Combined, the two countries imported 8.7 million tonnes of Russian crude oil in 2024, which is 2% more than in 2021.

Since the beginning of the invasion, these imports have sent the Kremlin approximately €5.4 billion in tax revenue. As the report emphasizes, that amount could theoretically fund the production of 1,800 Iskander-M missiles—missiles used to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian areas.

Despite disruptions in the Druzhba pipeline in 2024 and multiple opportunities to diversify through the Adria pipeline, both Hungary and Slovakia continued to rely on Russian supply chains. Slovakia began marginal non-Russian crude imports in the latter half of 2024, while Hungary saw its non-Russian crude intake fall to nearly zero.

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MOL and the role of state-linked energy networks

The report highlights the central role of Hungarian oil and gas company MOL, which owns the only refineries in both Hungary and Slovakia. MOL’s strategic decisions on crude origin determine national energy sourcing. Although the Hungarian state does not directly own MOL, it controls over 30% of the company through government-aligned foundations, effectively shaping its energy policy.

MOL secured multiple contracts for non-Russian oil via the Adria pipeline—2.2 million tonnes in 2023 and 2.1 million tonnes in 2025—but actual delivery in 2023 was less than half that amount. Meanwhile, MOL continues to process discounted Russian crude, profiting from price gaps that are not passed on to consumers. In fact, gasoline and diesel prices in Hungary remained 5% above the EU average in 2024.

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This arrangement has allowed MOL’s operating income to rise significantly: to $26.4 billion in 2022 and around $25.3 billion in both 2023 and 2024. The company’s profits helped stabilize Hungary’s strained budget through a windfall tax—initially 25%, later raised to 95%. By 2024, the tax yielded only $15 million, compared to $521 million in 2022, as discounts narrowed and fiscal benefits declined.

Between 2022 and May 2024, Hungary and MOL earned an estimated €1.7 billion in “extra profit” from this setup, according to a Hungarian nonprofit G7 investigation cited in the report.

Exploiting legal loopholes and export exemptions

The report details how both Hungary and Slovakia used EU exemptions to re-export petroleum products made from Russian crude to Czechia. Originally set to expire in December 2023, this export exemption was extended twice—first to December 2024, then to June 2025—despite Czechia’s objection.

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In 2024, Slovakia exported 710,000 tonnes of petroleum products to Czechia, worth €520 million, while Hungary added another 39,000 tonnes worth €40 million. Slovnaft, MOL’s Slovak subsidiary, is identified as the primary beneficiary.

Gas dependency entrenched via TurkStream

Hungary has positioned itself as a regional hub for Russian gas, increasing imports via TurkStream and re-exporting to Slovakia. Hungary’s 15-year contract with Gazprom, signed in 2021, was expanded in 2024 with an additional 2 billion cubic meters per year.

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Slovakia, whose contract with Gazprom runs until 2034, has likewise expanded imports from Hungary, effectively bypassing Ukraine as a transit country. The report notes that this arrangement severely weakens the EU’s diversification efforts and severely weakens “the EU’s collective energy security strategy and reinforce long-term risks of political leverage by the Kremlin.”

Hidden networks, offshore intermediaries, and Kremlin ties

Central to the report is the exposure of intermediary networks, particularly Normeston Trading SA—a company tied to Soviet-era oil traders and Russian oil majors. Normeston, once based in Belize and later in Cyprus and Switzerland, acted as a shadow intermediary for Russian crude shipments to Hungary and Slovakia.

The company has long-standing ties to MOL executives and Russian oil firms, including Lukoil and Bashneft. The report alleges that Normeston facilitated massive markups on Russian oil imports by acting as a middleman, effectively skimming profits outside the scope of EU oversight.

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The nuclear dimension

Although Slovakia signed a fuel supply deal with US-based Westinghouse, and Hungary with France’s Framatome, both continue to receive large volumes from Rosatom. The Paks II nuclear project in Hungary, led by Rosatom and financed 80% through a Russian loan, is flagged as a long-term strategic risk that locks Hungary into Russian influence for decades.

The report points out that the key contract details for Paks II are classified, and oversight is minimal. It describes the entire project as lacking transparency, with regulatory bypasses and rising costs now estimated at €15 billion—about 12% of Hungary’s GDP.

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Infrastructure and alternatives: No technical barriers

Tests confirm both MOL refineries can process non-Russian crude. In 2019, during a Druzhba contamination crisis, Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil temporarily dropped to 48% as it switched to Adria-supplied crude.

Similarly, alternatives to Russian gas exist through expanded LNG infrastructure in Greece, Croatia, and Poland, and new interconnectors with Austria, Romania, and Poland. The report insists that technical constraints do not justify continued Russian dependency.

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Recommendations: End exemptions, enforce traceability, dismantle capture networks

The report urges the EU to:

• Terminate the crude oil import exemptions under Regulation 833/2014 by 30 June 2025.
• End the loophole allowing oil product exports derived from Russian crude.
• Audit and enforce transparent pricing in the Adria pipeline to dispel Hungary’s cost-related claims.
• Impose full traceability of oil and gas origin.
• Sanction Rosatom and all subsidiaries to reduce nuclear dependence.
• Investigate MOL’s role in prolonging dependency through the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF).

It concludes that continued exemptions and reliance on Russian energy sources serve no technical or economic rationale and must be ended to protect European energy security, reduce Kremlin revenues, and restore EU sanctions integrity.

Russia has tripled its projected budget deficit for 2025 amid a sharp drop in oil revenues, driven by Western sanctions and plunging crude prices, President Volodymyr Zelensky's commissioner for sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, said on May 29.

According to Vlasiuk, the Kremlin has recently approved changes to its federal budget, increasing the planned deficit from 1.17 trillion rubles ($14.8 billion) to 3.8 trillion rubles ($48.3 billion), or from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP.

"The reasons? Cheaper oil and a strengthening ruble, which together are slashing oil and gas revenues by nearly a quarter — a loss of 2.6 trillion rubles ($33 billion) from the original forecast," Vlasiuk wrote in a statement. He pointed to a revised price forecast for Russia's Urals crude, cut from $69.70 to $56 per barrel.

Reuters reported earlier this month that Urals and ESPO crude blends dropped to $48.90 per barrel — the lowest level in two years and about 40% below the $82.60 price Moscow had initially budgeted for 2025.

Vlasiuk said international sanctions remain a key driver behind the decline in Russia's energy revenues. "Sanctions against Russia are working," he said. "This is confirmed by many indicators, and we are grateful for all the work that has already been done."

Ukraine has long been advocating for tighter sanctions against the Russian energy sector, particularly its shadow fleet. Despite hundreds of Russian tankers already under sanctions, many vessels remain operational and continue to ship Russian oil.

"Half of the sanctioned shadow fleet is still functioning," Vlasiuk said, calling for expanded measures — including sanctions on Russian ports, terminals, and even individual ship captains.

Russia's energy sector, which provided nearly 30% of the federal budget in early 2024, has been hit by drone strikes from Ukraine and increasing global pressure. The recent plunge in prices followed new tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 7, which spurred fears of a global recession and dragged oil prices to their lowest levels since May 2023.

Speaking on May 5, Trump claimed that Russia had become more willing to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine due to falling oil prices. "I think Russia, with the price of oil right now, oil has gone down, we are in a good position to settle, they want to settle. Ukraine wants to settle," he told reporters.

The financial strain comes as Moscow boosts defense spending by 25% for 2025, raising it to 6.3% of GDP — the highest share since the Cold War. The Kremlin has acknowledged the challenges, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov calling the global market conditions "extremely turbulent" and vowing economic measures to "minimize the consequences."

For Ukraine, Vlasiuk said the latest data sends a clear message: "We are grateful for all the work done so far... But if we want to level up, more needs to be done."

The U.S. recently blocked a G7 push to lower the $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil exports, the Financial Times reported on May 27. The cap, imposed by the G7 and EU in December 2022, bars Western firms from servicing Russian oil sold above that price to limit Moscow's war funding.

While Canada, the EU, and key G7 members supported tightening the cap, the proposal was dropped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent withheld support. The European Commission had reportedly planned to propose cutting the cap to $50.

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The United States opposed a joint G7 effort to lower the $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil exports during last week's meeting of finance ministers, the Financial Times reported on May 27, citing three unnamed officials familiar with the talks.  

The price cap, introduced by the G7 and EU in December 2022, bans Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

The mechanism was designed to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine.

The Canadian G7 presidency had proposed including language in the meeting's final communique that would call for tightening the existing price cap, according to the publication.

The move received backing from the European Union and G7 members France, Germany, Italy, and the U.K. However, the proposal was dropped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly declined to support it.

The European Commission had planned to propose reducing the threshold to $50 per barrel ahead of the meeting, according to Reuters.

The Financial Times reported that some EU countries — including Hungary and Greece — were still weighing their support for lowering the cap further, possibly to $45, as part of the EU's upcoming 18th sanctions package.

Russia's Finance Ministry has leaned on oil and gas taxes to finance growing military expenditures, including aggressive campaigns against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

U.S. President Donald Trump's stance on U.S. sanctions against Russia has been unclear.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on May 19 that he would not impose further sanctions against Russia "because there's a chance" of progress towards a ceasefire.

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