Explosions were recorded in Novorossiysk overnight on 14 November as Ukrainian forces conducted a combined missile and drone strike on the Russian Black Sea port city, 300-400 km from the southern sections of the frontline in Ukraine. Fires were observed at an oil terminal and military installations, with video footage, satellite imagery, and local reports confirming multiple impact sites across the area.

Ukrainian drones and missiles hit multiple targets in Novorossiysk

The attack began around midnight, with explosions reported in various districts of Novorossiysk in southern Russia's Krasnodar Krai.

Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ published multiple videos and images from the scene. In one of the videos, a woman is heard descibing an explosion she saw before starting to film the video and then reacting to a new sudden blast: “It lit up just like this.”

Eyewitness footage showed significant fires and rising smoke in multiple locations. 

Several videos captured Russian air defense launches, including one missile falling into the sea and another—or the same recorded from the opposite angle—illuminating the horizon.

Posting two clips of a particularly large explosion, Exilenova+ first stated that the strike hit military unit 52522, likely at an ammunition depot, and identified the point of view's coordinates as 44.6714567471, 37.7787317922. An updated post said a suspected S-400 air defense system position was located behind a “Lenta” mall, seen in the clips. Open-source researchers from the Cyberboroshno community stated that S-300 or S-400 positions belonging to military unit 1537 of the Kuban anti-aircraft missile regiment were hit.

Chernomortransneft terminal ablaze, oil exports halted

Videos showed that during the air assault, fires broke out at Transneft's Chernomortransneft oil terminal in the Sheskharis area of Novorossiysk following the aerial attack. The site is a key point in the Transneft pipeline network. NASA’s FIRMS satellite system also recorded numerous fire outbreaks in the Novorossiysk area.

Reuters cited two unnamed industry sources who said that Transneft's oil exports from Novorossiysk were suspended after the attack.

Due to the overnight attack, the airports in Krasnodar and Gelendzhik temporarily suspended operations.

Ukraine reveals new Neptune launcher platform

On 14 November, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published a video showing a modified launcher for the “Long Neptune” cruise missile.

Militarnyi notes that the system is mounted on a Tatra chassis and fitted with square transport-launch containers designed for two longer missiles. Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces used the Long Neptunes successfully overnight against designated targets in Russian territory.

The Ukrainian strikes came amid Russia's massive air and drone attack on Kyiv. Zelenskyy called the Ukrainian strike a “just response to continued Russian terror” and stated that Ukrainian missiles demonstrate growing accuracy and effectiveness each month. 

Russia issues official statements

Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that its air defense forces shot down 66 Ukrainian drones over Krasnodar Krai during the night. 

The emergency task force of Krasnodar Krai acknowledged damage to the oil depot at the Sheskharis transshipment complex and a "civilian" ship in the port — possibly an oil tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet," used to circumvent G7's oil sanctions. 

It also claimed that drone debris have fallen in several areas of the city.

US private equity firm Carlyle is considering acquiring Lukoil’s foreign assets, Reuters reports. The potential deal is unfolding under the pressure of a looming 21 November deadline, when Washington's sanctions will block all transactions with the Russian oil giant.

Carlyle "exploring options to buy" Lukoil’s global oil assets before sanctions lockout

American company Carlyle has begun exploring the purchase of Lukoil’s foreign holdings, sources familiar with the situation told Reuters. The assets are estimated at $22 billion and include refineries, oilfields, and fuel stations across multiple continents. Carlyle has informed Lukoil of its interest but has not yet begun due diligence.

Before it can proceed, Carlyle plans to apply for a US government license to make the deal legal under existing sanctions. The firm could still walk away from the deal, Reuters reports, depending on the outcome of the license application and timing constraints.

Gunvor pushed out after US calls it Kremlin “puppet”

Lukoil had previously tried to sell the same assets to Swiss commodities trader Gunvor. But the US Treasury blocked the transaction, Reuters reported, labeling Gunvor a Kremlin “puppet.” The move forced Gunvor to withdraw. That left Carlyle, which experts told Reuters is more likely to win approval from Washington. 

Lukoil has applied for an extension of the 21 November deadline, Reuters reported earlier this week. If the deadline stands, deals involving the company will be banned after that date.

$22 billion portfolio spans oilfields, refineries, and retail stations worldwide

Lukoil’s foreign assets produce 0.5% of the world’s oil and include three refineries in Europe, stakes in oilfields in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Mexico, Ghana, Egypt and Nigeria, and hundreds of fuel stations — including some in the US.

The company’s total global output amounts to about 2% of worldwide oil production. Its foreign portfolio, based on 2024 filings, is valued at roughly $22 billion.

A major inland Chinese refiner, Yanchang Petroleum, is seeking non-Russian oil as another state-run plant, Luoyang Petrochemical, closes its two crude distillation units following US sanctions, Reuters reports. 

Yanchang seeks non-Russian oil for winter deliveries

Chinese refiner Yanchang Petroleum is now seeking crude supplies that do not originate from Russia, traders told Reuters. The company, backed by the Shaanxi provincial government and located in northern inland China, has launched a tender to secure non-Russian oil for delivery between December and mid-February.

Yanchang, which holds an annual import quota of 3.6 million metric tons or 26 million barrels, typically receives crude via rail from Tianjin port near Beijing. Until now, it had regularly bought Russian oil, with one trader noting the refiner used to import around one shipment per month, typically Far East export grades like ESPO blend or Sokol, Reuters reported.

Its decision to avoid Russian supplies marks a significant shift. China and India are the top buyers of Russian oil, but recent sanctions by the US and other Western countries have raised fears among buyers of falling afoul of secondary penalties. Yanchang has not responded to Reuters’ request for comment.

Sinopec’s Luoyang refinery shut amid supply disruption

At the same time, a separate Chinese state-owned refinery has suspended operations due to disruptions linked to those same sanctions. Reuters reports that Luoyang Petrochemical, a subsidiary of the Chinese state refining giant Sinopec, has shut down both of its crude distillation units for maintenance.

The halt comes after US authorities sanctioned a key oil terminal in eastern China in early October. That terminal handles roughly one-fifth of Sinopec’s crude imports. The action forced significant diversions in crude shipments and affected operations at connected plants supplied by pipeline, including Luoyang.

Three sources familiar with the situation told Reuters that Luoyang’s crude units, with a combined processing capacity of 200,000 barrels per day, have been offline since late October. The shutdown is expected to last through the end of November. 

Hungary became the first NATO ally to secure exemption from US sanctions on Russian energy when President Donald Trump granted Prime Minister Viktor Orban a one-year waiver during their 7 November White House meeting, a White House official confirmed to Reuters.

The exemption allows Hungary to continue purchasing Russian oil and gas in exchange for over $1.4 billion in Hungarian commitments to US nuclear, defense, and energy purchases. The move marks a significant breach in Western sanctions against Russia, as Orban—who has vowed to veto Ukraine's EU accession and opposes its NATO membership—openly aligned with Trump in characterizing the war as unwinnable and positioning both leaders as the sole "pro-peace" voices in the West.

This development threatens Ukraine's strategic position because it weakens the coordinated sanctions regime designed to constrain Russian energy revenues that fund Moscow's war effort, while emboldening an EU and NATO member to maintain financial flows to Russia and block Ukrainian integration into Western security structures.

What happened at the White House

Trump welcomed Orban for a bilateral meeting and lunch that yielded immediate economic and diplomatic results.

Politico reported that Hungary signed a memorandum of understanding on civil nuclear cooperation valued at $20 billion, including construction of 10 small modular reactors in Budapest using US nuclear technology. Hungary also committed to purchasing $114 million in nuclear fuel from US-based Westinghouse, $600 million in liquified natural gas, and $700 million in defense materials.

The centerpiece of Orban's visit was securing relief from US sanctions targeting Russian energy. According to Reuters, a White House official confirmed Hungary received a one-year exemption from sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Trump justified the decision by citing Hungary's landlocked geography, stating "it's very difficult for him to get the oil and gas from other areas" and noting that Hungary lacks seaports for alternative energy imports.

The exemption contradicts Trump's previous pressure on European nations to cut Russian energy purchases to economically isolate Moscow.

BBC analysis noted that Hungary and Slovakia together have paid Russia $13 billion for oil between Russia's February 2022 invasion and the end of 2024, providing critical hard currency to Moscow despite Western sanctions efforts.

Why this matters for Ukraine's security

The sanctions exemption directly undermines Ukraine's defensive capabilities by preserving Russian energy revenues that finance military operations. Russian oil and gas sales remain Moscow's primary source of hard currency for weapons procurement, troop salaries, and military industrial production—the economic foundation sustaining Russia's invasion.

More strategically, the exemption creates the first formal crack in the unified Western sanctions architecture. If a NATO and EU member can obtain preferential treatment on Russian energy, other nations may seek similar exemptions, accelerating the collapse of coordinated economic pressure that has been one of the West's primary non-military tools against Russian aggression.

The exemption also rewards Orban's obstructionism toward Ukraine within European institutions. Politico reported that Orban has declared he would veto Ukraine's accession to the European Union and opposes Ukrainian NATO membership—positions that directly contradict the policies of most NATO allies and EU members who view Ukrainian integration as essential to long-term European security.

Orban's opposition to Ukrainian victory and Western support

During the White House meeting, Orban openly expressed skepticism about Ukraine's ability to prevail militarily against Russia. When Trump asked whether Orban believed Ukraine could win the war, Orban responded evasively: "Miracle[s] can happen," according to Politico. This framing aligns with Trump's characterization of the war as unwinnable through military means and contradicts the position of NATO leadership and most European governments that sustained military aid is essential to Ukrainian defense.

Orban described the US and Hungary as the only "pro-peace" governments addressing the Russia-Ukraine war, and characterized other European nations as "misunderstanding" the conflict by believing Ukraine can prevail on the battlefield, according to the Politico report. This rhetorical positioning isolates Ukraine diplomatically by suggesting that support for Ukrainian military resistance represents a misguided approach rather than legitimate defense of sovereignty.

Trump also revived plans to host a peace summit in Budapest with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Ukraine. Last month, Orban was reportedly offered the opportunity to host such a summit, though that plan "quickly disintegrated," Politico reported. During the 7 November meeting, Trump stated: "If we have it, I'd like to do it in Budapest"—suggesting Hungary could serve as the venue for negotiations that would likely marginalize Ukrainian input and European perspectives on territorial integrity and security guarantees.

The trade package and Hungary's pivot

The economic package Hungary committed to represents a significant financial outlay designed to demonstrate reciprocity with the Trump administration. The BBC reported that the nuclear agreement includes construction of 10 small modular reactors valued between $10 billion and $20 billion, which Hungary needs to power expanding Chinese battery manufacturing plants around the country. These smaller nuclear facilities face fewer construction delays and licensing complications than traditional large-scale plants.

Hungary also agreed to purchase $114 million in nuclear fuel from US-based Westinghouse for its Paks 1 nuclear power station, which was built by the Soviet Union in the 1980s and currently supplies approximately 40% of Hungary's electricity needs, according to the BBC. The US agreement to lift nuclear sanctions on Hungary may help restart the long-delayed Paks 2 expansion project, which has been financed and designed by Russia's Rosatom but faces persistent technical and licensing obstacles.

Orban framed the visit as the beginning of "phase two" in Hungary's improving relationship with the Trump administration, referencing what he characterized as "politically motivated sanctions" from the Biden administration against his top aide, Antal Rogan, who was sanctioned for corruption allegations, Politico reported.

Implications for Western unity and Ukrainian support

The meeting creates several concerning scenarios for Ukraine and the broader Western alliance. If Trump's precedent encourages other nations—particularly those with less stable democratic institutions or closer ties to Russia—to request similar exemptions, the coordinated sanctions regime could fragment rapidly. The divergence between Hungary's position and that of other NATO and EU members will deepen existing tensions within both institutions, undermining the unified deterrence posture that underpins Ukrainian security.

The exemption complicates Congressional support for Ukraine. Congress controls military aid to Kyiv and now faces questions about backing a country while its NATO ally undermines sanctions on Russia's main revenue source. Trump's willingness to host peace talks in Budapest, paired with Orban's skepticism about Ukrainian victory, signals negotiations could pressure Ukraine into territorial concessions and forced neutrality.

The BBC noted that critics argue energy dependence on Russia is merely being replaced by energy dependence on the US, while the Orban government contends it is achieving greater diversity of supply. However, the one-year timeframe for the exemption—expiring just after Hungary's April 2026 election—suggests the waiver is designed primarily to boost Orban's domestic political position rather than address structural energy security concerns.

Read also:

• Sanction me softly: Trump, Orbán, and the oil that binds them
• Europe spends € 2 billion a month on Russian oil and LNG—more than its aid to Ukraine

Ukraine’s President said halting Russian oil exports to Hungary is inevitable. Meanwhile, after Hungary had spent months insisting that Russian oil supplies were irreplaceable, Hungary's sole refiner now says it can receive 80% of crude from non-Russian sources.

Zelenskyy says Hungary will not receive Russian oil for long

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will stop Russian oil from reaching Hungary, though it cannot happen immediately due to various dependencies. He spoke following a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff on 7 November, Liga reported.

“We can’t allow Russians to keep making money on energy,” Zelenskyy said. “Even where they twist our arms through various contracts or obligations, we’ll still find a way to make sure Russian oil disappears from Europe. [...] We won’t let the Russians sell oil there. It’s a matter of time. We can’t do it today because there are many different dependencies in this puzzle, but we’ll still complete the picture.”

He also commented on Hungary PM Viktor Orbán’s attempts to block Ukraine’s European Union accession.

“[Russians] couldn’t do it. If he thinks delaying it by six months will stop Ukraine, then no, it won’t,” the President said.

MOL says 80% of crude can come from non-Russian sources

Hungarian oil company Mol said on the same day it can meet about 80% of its supply needs using crude delivered through Croatia’s Adriatic pipeline. The statement appeared in the company’s earnings report, a few hours before Orbán’s scheduled meeting with Trump at the White House, where Hungary's leader aimed to secure an exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil, Bloomberg reported. 

Explore further

Sanction me softly: Trump, Orbán, and the oil that binds them

Mol operates refineries in Hungary and Slovakia. It stated that “should the crude flows via the Druzhba pipeline drop significantly, Mol can increase its utilization of the Adriatic pipeline and supply ca. 80% of its landlocked refineries’ intake, although entailing higher technical risks and logistics costs.”

Mol said it is “cautiously progressing” with upgrades at its refineries in Hungary and Slovakia to expand their ability to process non-Russian crude.

Bulgaria is preparing legislation that could allow the government to take control of Russian oil company Lukoil’s assets in the country, according to Bulgarian news outlet Capital. The move comes as new US sanctions against Moscow’s oil sector force Lukoil to exit international markets and sell its overseas holdings.

US sanctions announced in October targeted Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, intending to cut Moscow’s wartime energy revenue. The measures ban Western firms from trading, shipping, or insuring their oil, forcing Lukoil to scale back abroad and prompting countries like Bulgaria to reassess its assets under growing restrictions.

Under the proposed bill, a state-appointed manager could assume full control of Lukoil’s Bulgarian refinery and fuel operations, with the power to sell the company’s assets and deposit proceeds into a government account. The draft law has not yet been submitted to parliament but would effectively suspend the Russian company’s management and ownership rights.

The measure follows Lukoil’s plan to sell its international assets, including its Bulgarian refinery, to Swiss-based trader Gunvor, pending US approval. The company announced its global withdrawal after Washington imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in October, barring Western firms from handling Russian oil from November 21.

Lukoil’s Burgas refinery, the largest in the Balkans, has been a key supplier of fuel to Bulgaria and neighboring countries. US sanctions have raised questions over the refinery’s future operations and energy security in the region.

The draft law reflects growing pressure on European governments to comply with US sanctions and cut Russian energy influence. Bulgaria, which had already limited Lukoil’s exports earlier this year, is now weighing whether to nationalize its operations as part of that broader effort.

Ukraine struck deep into Russian territory with drone attacks on the Sterlitamak petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan nearly 1,500 kilometers inside Russia early on 4 November 2025, local sources reported. The facility, one of Russia’s key chemical producers tied to the defense industry, suffered explosions and visible fires after the strike.

The Sterlitamak petrochemical plant is one of Bashkortostan’s largest chemical enterprises. It is an important site supplying the Russian defense-industrial complex. The plant manufactures synthetic rubber, isoprene, ionol, and aviation gasoline — materials used in military production.

Explosions and drone alert in Sterlitamak

Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ shared photos and videos from the scene and reported that residents of Sterlitamak heard two powerful explosions before dawn and that drone attack alerts sounded across the city. The shared footage shows three distinct smoke sources at the Sterlitamak petrochemical plant.

Local authorities later confirmed an explosion allegedly at the water treatment workshop of the Sterlitamak petrochemical plant, saying the building partially collapsed while five workers were inside. Officials claimed no one was injured. Emergency services and the city’s head arrived at the scene, saying the causes of the explosion were being investigated.

Russian Telegram channel Astra published several videos geolocated to the plant area, showing at least two explosions at 6:22 and 7:09 a.m. local time, followed by fires and heavy smoke.

The channel also said airports in Ufa, Kazan, and Nizhnekamsk were temporarily closed after the incident. OSINT analysis by Astra noted several separate fire spots around the industrial zone and suggested that one ignition point appeared near railway tanks or storage facilities north of the main complex.

The head of Bashkortostan, Radiy Khabirov, said the Sterlitamak industrial complex was hit by two drones. He alleged that Russian air defenses and security services shot both down, but admitted that ostensibly debris fell in the industrial area, allegedly damaging auxiliary facilities. Khabirov said there were no casualties and claimed the enterprise continued operating normally.

Ukrainian officials have not commented on this latest strike.

The same industrial area in Sterlitamak was targeted last month, when drones attacked a nearby plant involved in producing oil and gas equipment and explosives.

In the early hours of 3 November, explosions shook the Russian city of Saratov as several Telegram channels shared footage and local accounts pointing to a Ukrainian drone strike on the city’s oil refinery. Later that day, Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed the refinery had been hit.

Saratov oil refinery struck again in confirmed Ukrainian drone attack

Initial reports began surfacing around 00:50 Kyiv time, when residents of Saratov and the nearby city of Engels heard powerful blasts and the operation of air defense systems.

Supernova+, a Ukrainian Telegram channel, shared a photo showing smoke over the refinery and commented that air defense systems were active above the site.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel, Exilenova+, published footage of a drone strike, confirming a strike on the refinery. 

According to the Russian Telegram channel Shot, locals described a series of explosions in the sky, which continued intermittently for about an hour as of time of the reporting. Shot said people across Balakovo and Kalininsky districts of Saratov Oblast reported hearing drones and loud detonations.

Dnipro OSINT geolocated the video, stating it captured a Ukrainian drone hitting the Saratov refinery’s AVT-6 crude distillation unit. 

Russian Telegram channel Astra also reviewed the visuals and also concluded that the target of the attack was the Saratov refinery, noting that the impacted area appeared to be covered with a protective net.

"It is worth noting that the video already shows a source of fire in the western part of the plant, possibly near the storage tanks," Astra added.

One of Russia’s largest oil refineries repeatedly targeted

The Saratov oil refinery is among the largest industrial fuel facilities in Russia. It produces gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, road and roofing bitumen, vacuum gas oil, and technical sulfur. The plant is owned by Rosneft and processed around 5.8 million tons of oil in 2024–2.2% of all oil refined in Russia that year. In 2023, it processed 4.8 million tons.

Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi noted that the refinery has already been targeted seven times in 2025 by Ukrainian drones. Astra said that this was at least the sixth confirmed strike.

Türkiye’s top oil refiners are ramping up purchases of non-Russian crude following the latest US and EU sanctions targeting Moscow’s energy exports, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing multiple industry sources.

Western allies aim to choke off one of the Kremlin’s last major revenue streams used to fund its war in Ukraine. New sanctions target Russia’s oil industry, including major producers Rosneft and Lukoil, and the networks helping Moscow evade restrictions.

The move marks a notable shift for one of Russia’s biggest remaining oil customers, aligning Türkiye with India’s recent efforts to diversify supply following the sanctions, as both nations face secondary sanctions risks for dealing with blocked Russian entities. 

The SOCAR Türkiye Aegean Refinery, owned by Azerbaijan’s state oil company, has reportedly purchased several cargoes from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other non-Russian producers.

Meanwhile, Türkiye’s largest refiner, Tupras, is said to be phasing out Russian crude at one of its plants to maintain compliance with upcoming EU rules while keeping exports to Europe.

Türkiye has long relied heavily on discounted Russian oil since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But tightening Western sanctions appear to be reshaping trade flows, prompting Ankara’s refiners to seek alternative sources from the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

The country doubled its Russian oil imports in 2022, with trade between the two nations booming as Turkish companies faced no restrictions on dealing with Russian counterparts.

Türkiye's broader energy relationship with Moscow extends beyond oil to include Russian construction of Türkiye's first nuclear plant and natural gas supplies, though Ankara has also signaled plans to reduce gas dependence within three years.

Ukraine is working closely with European partners on the 20th EU sanctions package against Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on 31 October 2025. 

Kyiv has submitted proposals to ensure the package targets Russian energy companies, tankers, and military-industrial enterprises, reinforcing pressure on Moscow over its war in Ukraine.

In parallel, Ukraine enacted domestic sanctions on more than 50 individuals and companies supporting Russia’s war effort. The measures target pro-Russian propagandists, Russian, Chinese, and Iranian companies supplying Russia’s military-industrial complex, and their executives. 

While largely symbolic, these domestic sanctions are intended to synchronize Kyiv’s restrictions with international partners and signal a unified stance against Moscow.

“Since the beginning of the year, we have synchronized 11 sanction packages with our partners - six with the EU, and others with the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom,” Zelenskyy said. “Next month, we will complete the synchronization efforts. It is now very important for us to ensure coordination among the G7 countries.”

Ukraine’s coordination emphasizes reducing Russia’s oil revenues, limiting the shadow fleet, and countering propaganda, while ensuring sanctions enforcement is consistent across partner jurisdictions. 

Recent sanctions cut Russia off from major oil buyers as energy giant profits plunge

Recent coordinated sanctions are showing concrete impact on Russia's war economy. On 22-23 October, the US, UK, and EU imposed their largest sanctions package since 2022, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil - Russia's two largest oil companies that account for roughly half of the country's 10.6 million barrels per day output and nearly a third of federal tax revenue. 

Within hours of the announcement, Chinese state oil firms suspended seaborne Russian crude purchases while Indian refiners prepared to slash imports, isolating Moscow from buyers representing over 85% of its crude exports. Lukoil announced it would sell its international assets just days after the sanctions took effect. 

The EU's 19th package simultaneously banned Russian LNG imports by 2027 and froze 117 additional shadow fleet tankers.

Combined with Ukrainian drone strikes that have cut Russia's refining output by 500,000 barrels per day, refined fuel exports have plunged to their lowest level since early 2022, averaging just 1.89 million barrels per day in October, according to Bloomberg.

New Zealand announced on 30 October it is imposing sanctions on 65 additional shadow fleet vessels and seven entities connected to Russia's oil trade, along with two individuals from Belarus, Iran and North Korea involved in refining and transporting Russian oil.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters made the announcement during meetings with Nordic 5 foreign ministers in Stockholm. The sanctions target actors "part of a broader network enabling the trade in Russian oil, undermining global efforts to curtail funding for Russia's illegal war," Peters said in a statement.

The shadow fleet consists of tankers that transport sanctioned cargoes from countries including Iran, Russia and Venezuela while concealing their operations through fake locations, documents and vessel names.

"By targeting the oil supply chain, New Zealand is acting decisively in support of international efforts to bring Russia to the negotiating table," Peters said.

The timing follows Reuters reporting Tuesday that Maritime Mutual, a small insurer based in New Zealand, had facilitated trade worth tens of billions of dollars in Iranian and Russian oil by providing insurance to vessels evading Western sanctions. The coverage enables these ships to enter ports that require proof of insurance.

The sanctions expand New Zealand's measures against Russia's energy sector, specifically targeting the financial mechanisms and transportation networks that allow sanctioned oil to reach global markets.

Ukrainian forces have carried out more than 160 precision strikes on oil refineries and energy facilities deep inside Russia in 2025, reducing the country’s oil production by up to 90% and causing a fuel shortage of over 20%, according to Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) chief Vasyl Malyuk.

The strikes represent one of Ukraine’s most extensive long-range campaigns of the war, directly targeting the backbone of Russia’s war economy. Oil and gas revenues remain Moscow’s primary source of funding for its invasion and a critical cushion against Western sanctions. By disrupting refinery operations and exports, Ukraine aims to weaken the Kremlin’s ability to sustain its military spending.

Speaking at a press briefing on 31 October, Malyuk said Ukrainian drones and missiles have hit several key refineries in September and October, severely impacting Russia’s oil sector and fuel supply.

“We are implementing what we call kinetic sanctions - deep strikes into the enemy’s rear using drones at ranges beyond 120 kilometers,” Malyuk said.

He emphasized that Ukrainian operations target only lawful military and economic objectives - specifically, oil production and refining facilities that directly support Russia’s war effort.

“These are the dirty oil rubles the enemy uses to kill us,” Malyuk said.

Ukraine's precision refinery strikes combine with sanctions to create repair crisis

Ukraine's systematic campaign targeting Russian refineries has evolved from opportunistic strikes to precision economic warfare. The SBU and other Ukrainian defense agencies have repeatedly hit critical processing units.

BBC Verify documented 21 of Russia's 38 large refineries struck since January 2025, with attacks reaching record levels in August and remaining elevated through October.

The campaign's impact extends beyond immediate damage. The International Energy Agency estimates Ukrainian strikes have cut Russia's refining output by 500,000 barrels per day and will keep processing rates low until at least mid-2026. 

Combined with Western sanctions that prevent Russian refineries from obtaining specialized repair equipment, each breakdown, whether from combat damage or routine failure, becomes a prolonged crisis.

Data cited by Bloomberg shows that Russia’s fuel exports have fallen to wartime lows amid mounting refinery outages and Western sanctions. Seaborne oil product shipments dropped to 1.89 million barrels per day in October - the lowest since the start of the full-scale invasion - underscoring how Ukraine’s strikes are increasingly eroding Moscow’s energy revenues.

Russia’s refined fuel exports have plunged to their lowest level since the start of the full-scale war, as a combination of refinery outages, Ukrainian drone strikes, and Western sanctions disrupt Moscow’s energy trade, Bloomberg reported on 30 October.

The decline reflects mounting pressure on Russia’s energy sector amid both physical and financial disruption, as US and European sanctions tighten and recent Ukrainian strikes target key export infrastructure across the country.

According to data from Vortexa Ltd. cited by Bloomberg, seaborne oil product shipments averaged just 1.89 million barrels per day in the first 26 days of October, the weakest level since early 2022. 

While diesel exports edged up slightly, supported by shipments to nearby markets in Türkiye and Africa, exports of naphtha and fuel oil fell sharply. Naphtha flows remained constrained after the September attack on the Ust-Luga terminal on the Baltic Sea, which handles over 60% of Russia’s naphtha exports, while fuel oil exports dropped 10% month-on-month to a three-month low.

Crude oil shipments have also slipped from recent highs, suggesting that the combined impact of sanctions and Ukrainian attacks is beginning to weigh more heavily on Russia’s oil output and export capacity.

Refinery attacks disrupt supply

Ukraine's systematic campaign targeting Russian refineries has knocked offline processing capacity worth hundreds of thousands of barrels per day. Since January 2025, Ukrainian drones have struck 21 of Russia's 38 large oil refineries. 

The International Energy Agency estimates these strikes have cut Russia's refining output by 500,000 barrels per day and will keep processing rates lower until at least mid-2026.

Sanctions squeeze Moscow’s energy giants

The physical destruction of refineries now combines with financial pressure from coordinated Western sanctions. 

On 22-23 October, the US, UK, and EU imposed their largest sanctions package since 2022, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil - Russia's two largest oil companies that together account for roughly half of the country's 10.6 million barrels per day output. 

Within hours of the announcement, Chinese state oil firms suspended seaborne Russian crude purchases while Indian refiners prepared to slash imports, isolating Moscow from buyers representing over 85% of its crude exports. 

Strike drones hit two Russian oil facilities in occupied Crimea on 29 October morning, according to the monitoring Telegram channel Crimean Wind, which published videos from the scenes.

An explosion rocked the settlement of Hvardiiske around 6:26 a.m., igniting an oil depot belonging to LLC Kedr, Crimean Wind reports.

The company operates ATAN, the largest gas station network on the occupied peninsula with over 100 stations, along with multiple oil depots and a fleet of fuel tankers.

Reports of fire at an oil depot in occupied Simferopol began appearing around 7:00 a.m., with eyewitnesses filming multiple videos and photographs from the scene. Russian occupation authorities later stated that a Ukrainian drone strike ignited a petroleum products container within the city.

According to Crimean Wind subscribers, military fuel tankers equipped with camouflage nets and drone protection were actively moving in and out of the Simferopol facility just a day before the strike. The monitoring channel reports that this depot serves as an active supply point for Russian occupation forces.

The Hvardiiske facility had already been targeted on 17 October. That earlier strike caused fires that burned for several days, with satellite imagery documenting the destruction of at least five large fuel tanks by the fourth day of burning.

The new fire at the Hvardiiske depot is already visible from space, Crimean Wind reported.

[Update]

Ukraine's Security Service claimed responsibility for the overnight strikes on Russian facilities in occupied Crimea, a source in the SBU told Hromadske.

The operation targeted both air defense systems and fuel infrastructure. A Pantsir-S2 anti-aircraft missile-gun system valued at approximately $20 million was hit, along with two radar stations, according to the SBU source.

The SBU source confirmed strikes on the oil depot in Hvardiiske and stated that drones also hit the Komsomolska oil depot.

"The SBU continues systematic work to destroy air defense systems that cover Crimea, and oil depots that supply the enemy with fuel," the source stated.

Baltic companies are quietly sustaining Russia’s “shadow fleet,” helping sanctioned and high-risk tankers to transport Russian oil globally, a joint investigation by LRT, 15min, Eesti Ekspress, and Nekā personīga has found.

Russia’s “shadow fleet” is a network of old, often uninsured tankers with opaque ownership, designed to evade Western sanctions and move Russian oil and petroleum products around the world. These vessels fly under various foreign flags, frequently disable tracking systems, disguise cargo origins, and transfer fuel at sea, allowing Moscow to maintain its energy exports and finance its war effort despite international restrictions.

The investigation tracked the movements of two bunker tankers, Rina and Zircone, which conducted hundreds of ship-to-ship refueling operations between June 2024 and March 2025. 

During this period, the vessels supplied fuel to at least 177 oil tankers, 159 of which had recently visited Russian ports. 

The vessels are linked to Fast Bunkering, a Baltic oil empire founded by Aleksei Tšulets in Estonia. While Tšulets sold the ships in 2023, the investigation found they remain effectively controlled through Dubai-registered FB Trade, using complex offshore structures to obscure ownership.

How shadow fleet operations exploit sanctions loopholes

Many of the tankers the vessels refueled exhibit classic shadow fleet characteristics: they operate without insurance, conceal ownership, and disable tracking systems. 

Experts say these shadow fleet operations exploit loopholes in EU maritime sanctions, which allow for exceptions for refueling vessels transporting Russian oil, provided companies conduct due diligence. 

In practice, the LRT investigation shows these safeguards are often bypassed, with tankers operating largely undisturbed despite repeated EU, US, and UK sanctions.

Fast Bunkering and its affiliates have long used offshore companies and layered corporate structures to hide connections and continue trading Russian fuel, including shipments to India, Brazil, and Libya. 

Western countries struggle to enforce sanctions

“The threat is growing. Russia sees this as an effective weapon - both to undermine European security and to keep its oil flowing,” Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told LRT. He warned that such practices not only expose the slow pace of sanctions enforcement, but also heighten the risk of environmental disasters.

Even after multiple high-profile incidents, including EU sanctions against some of its vessels, Fast Bunkering’s network continues to operate, underscoring the difficulty of policing international waters.

Maritime intelligence analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann told LRT that the shadow fleet has tripled in size since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Russia has spent billions of dollars building this network. In that sense, the sanctions have failed to achieve their intended goal - instead of making the seas safer, they’ve made them more dangerous,” she said.

Broader pattern of sanctions circumvention

A February investigation by Follow the Money found Western shipowners earned over $6 billion by selling aging oil tankers that now transport Russian oil. More than 230 vessels previously owned by Western companies, representing over a third of Russia's shadow fleet, were sold at premium prices.

Despite the US and UK blocking two major Russian oil producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as part of January's largest-ever energy sanctions package, enforcement remains challenging. 

The investigation underscores the continuing challenge for European authorities to monitor and enforce sanctions in the Baltic and beyond, as private companies play a central role in sustaining Russia’s global oil trade.

Russian oil giant Lukoil announced Monday it will sell its international assets after US sanctions targeted the company and Rosneft, Moscow’s two largest oil producers. The measures freeze all US assets of the companies and bar American firms from dealing with them.

The new sanctions marked a major escalation in Western efforts to cut Moscow’s energy revenue and weaken its war economy. Lukoil’s divestment shows the immediate financial impact of these measures, as the company moves to offload overseas holdings while trying to maintain stable operations at home.

Lukoil said the bidding process for its international assets has already begun. The divestment will be conducted under a US Treasury wind-down license, with the option to extend to ensure uninterrupted operations.

Among its largest foreign holdings is a 75% stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oil field, which produced more than 480,000 barrels per day earlier this year. The company also owns Bulgaria’s Neftohim Burgas refinery, Romania’s Petrotel refinery, and supplies oil to Hungary, Slovakia, and Türkiye’s STAR refinery.

The sanctions come as US President Donald Trump rolled out the first major US restrictions on Russia’s energy sector since taking office in January. 

Britain followed with parallel measures, also targeting dozens of shadow fleet tankers accused of helping Moscow evade previous export limits.

Lukoil and Rosneft together account for roughly 55% of Russia’s oil output. Washington has given foreign firms doing business with them one month to cut ties or face secondary sanctions, potentially blocking access to US banks, traders, shippers, and insurers.

Despite the divestment, Lukoil emphasized its commitment to “stable operations” during the transition, producing about 2% of the world’s oil.

Kirill Dmitriev, Russia's economic envoy and representative in negotiations with the United States, has stated that Washington, Kyiv and Moscow are close to reaching a diplomatic resolution to end the war.

Speaking to CNN after arriving in Washington for talks with American officials, Dmitriev said a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will still take place, though at a later date than originally planned.

"I believe that Russia, the US, and Ukraine are actually quite close to a diplomatic solution," Dmitriev told CNN.

When the journalist noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had agreed to freeze the front line for a subsequent ceasefire and asked why Putin had not done the same, Dmitriev responded that Moscow seeks not merely a truce but a "final solution" to end the war.

Dmitriev, however, characterized Zelenskyy's position as a significant shift.

"This is a big step on President Zelenskyy's part — to acknowledge that it's about the front lines," he said, noting that Ukraine's previous position demanded Russia's complete withdrawal.

"I think we're quite close to a diplomatic solution that can be worked out," the Russian financier added.

The Kremlin envoy is scheduled to meet with Trump administration representatives to continue discussions on US-Russia relations. Axios reported earlier that talks with Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff are planned.

Trump stated after recent talks with Ukrainian and Russian leaders that he supports freezing the war at current front lines.

He denied media reports suggesting he had urged Zelensky to surrender all of Donetsk Oblast. "We believe that what they should do is just stop at those lines where they are now, at the front lines," Trump said.

Reuters reports that the Kremlin has not altered its demands, continuing to insist on control over the entire Donbas region, including complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to Reuters. President Zelenskyy has rejected any territorial concessions to Moscow.

More than 20 countries backing Ukraine have pledged to remove Russian oil and gas from global markets, in what UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer described as an effort to “choke off funding for Russia’s war machine,” as reported by the BBC.

The announcement came after a “Coalition of the Willing” summit in London, attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The pledge builds on a new wave of Western sanctions: the UK and US recently targeted Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, while the EU imposed restrictions on Moscow’s liquefied natural gas exports.

Zelenskyy welcomed the tightening of sanctions, saying that “pressure” was the only way to stop the war, now entering its fourth winter. He warned that Russia “wants to make the winter cold a tool of torment” as it continues near-daily attacks on Ukraine’s energy system.

He said in his evening address that all coalition members agreed to keep tightening pressure “on Russian oil, oil companies, terminals, the tanker fleet, and the aggressor’s infrastructure.” Some decisions, he added, “will help us significantly,” but details would remain undisclosed “to make it harder for Putin.”

Starmer said the allies had agreed on a “clear plan for the rest of the year” to sustain Ukraine’s defense, including efforts to target Russia’s sovereign assets and “unlock billions” for Kyiv, though no details were given.

EU leaders separately endorsed plans to cover Ukraine’s financial needs for the next two years but stopped short of approving the use of frozen Russian assets worth €140 billion. 

The London gathering also discussed support for Ukraine’s energy grid and air defenses. Protecting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure remains an urgent issue as Russia intensifies strikes aimed at plunging cities into darkness during the coming winter.

Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas

The London announcement follows coordinated Western sanctions action on 22-23 October, when the US designated Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with more than 30 subsidiaries, freezing their US assets and prohibiting American transactions with them. 

The EU simultaneously approved its 19th sanctions package, banning Russian LNG imports and targeting additional shadow fleet vessels. 

Chinese state oil firms have suspended seaborne Russian oil purchases following the US sanctions, while Indian refiners prepare to slash imports. Together, China and India absorbed 85% of Russia's crude exports after Western sanctions shifted Russian oil trade from Europe to Asia.

The coordinated pressure comes as Rosneft's profits collapsed 68% in the first half of 2025, with free cash flow plunging 75% - the clearest sign yet that sanctions combined with Ukrainian strikes on refineries are systematically dismantling the Kremlin's war funding.

After delaying new Russia sanctions since taking office in January, US President Donald Trump has now approved a sweeping Treasury action targeting Moscow’s main oil producers. The US Department of the Treasury announced the designations on 22 October, citing Russia’s refusal to engage seriously in peace talks over its war in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the measures aim to degrade the Kremlin’s ability to finance its war effort and urged an immediate ceasefire.

Washington targets Rosneft and Lukoil

According to the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the new sanctions cover Russia’s two largest oil companies — Rosneft and Lukoil — along with more than 30 subsidiaries. The entities are now blocked under Executive Order 14024 for operating in Russia’s energy sector. Their property and interests in the United States are frozen, and all transactions by US persons involving them are prohibited.

The Treasury stated that the goal is not punishment but behavioral change, calling the measures a step toward peace if Moscow chooses to negotiate. The sanctions also extend to any company in which Rosneft or Lukoil hold at least 50% ownership, even if not specifically listed by OFAC. The full list of subsidiaries spans refineries, oil fields, and gas operations across Russia.

Bessent: “Time to stop the killing”

In the official statement, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said,

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire.” He added that, “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine.”

Bessent said the department stands ready to take further steps if required “to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war.”

Trump: “We waited a long time”

At a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte late on 22 October, Trump explained why the US moved only now.

“I just felt it was time. We waited a long time,” he said. “These are tremendous sanctions. Those are against their two big oil companies. And we hope that they won’t be on for long. We hope that the war will be settled.”

Asked whether the sanctions would push Russian President Vladimir Putin toward a deal, Trump replied,

“I don’t know that they will. I think that they’ll certainly have an impact there. They’re massive sanctions. It’s sanctions on oil… and hopefully he’ll become reasonable and hopefully [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will be reasonable too. You know, it takes two to tango.”

EU welcomes the move

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she spoke with Bessent on the evening of 22 October and thanked Washington for the decision. In her post on X, she wrote that the sanctions came “in the face of Russia’s lack of commitment to the peace process” and noted that with the EU preparing its nineteenth sanctions package, the joint action shows a “clear signal from both sides of the Atlantic that we will keep up collective pressure on the aggressor.”

Broader US sanctions efforts

Earlier this month, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the chamber had postponed a sanctions bill targeting Russia and its trade partners until an upcoming Trump–Putin meeting, which has now been canceled. The delay followed weeks of internal debate. 

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee later backed three new legislative initiatives aimed at tightening pressure on Russia, including a proposal to designate it as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Russia's crude oil shipments have dropped to their lowest level since February, as refinery processing outpaces production growth and trims available export volumes, Bloomberg reported on July 8.

Russia has used its revenues from energy exports to finance the war in Ukraine.

Seaborne crude flows averaged 3.12 million barrels a day over the four weeks to July 6, a 3% decline from the previous period ending June 29, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the lowest level recorded since the four-week period ending Feb. 23.

The gross value of Moscow's oil exports rose by about $100 million, or 8%, to $1.36 billion for the week ending July 6, Bloomberg said. That increase was due to higher volume, although average export prices declined for a second consecutive week.

Most of Russia's oil continues to head to Asia. Shipments to the region averaged 2.73 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the previous month. Flows to Turkey fell to 370,000 barrels a day, and shipments to Syria held steady at 25,000 barrels a day.

The European Union is seeking to tighten sanctions on Russia. Ambassadors have yet to approve the EU's 18th sanctions package due to opposition from Hungary and Slovakia. The bloc failed to adopt the new package on June 27.

The new package includes restrictions targeting Russia's energy and banking sectors, as well as transactions linked to the Nord Stream gas pipeline.

Death of top Russian oil executive fuels fresh scrutiny of elite’s ‘window falls’

The unexplained death of a top Russian oil executive on July 4 is fueling renewed scrutiny over the rising number of high-profile Russian officials and businessmen who have died under mysterious circumstances, specifically, have fallen out of windows. Andrei Badalov, vice president of Transneft, Russia’s largest state-controlled pipeline transport company,

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Russia's crude oil production in June fell below its agreed-upon OPEC+ target, according to individuals familiar with the data interviwed by Bloomberg.

Russian producers reportedly pumped 9.022 million barrels per day last month, a figure 28,000 barrels per day below the required level, including compensation cuts. This marks the largest gap between Russia's output and its monthly quota this year, based on Bloomberg's calculations.

Historically, Russia, which co-leads the OPEC+ alliance with Saudi Arabia, has faced criticism for poor compliance with production quotas. However, the nation has shown improved adherence for most of 2025, often pumping below its required levels, according to analysis of Russian data. This increased focus on production discipline follows earlier critiques from Riyadh.

Under the terms of the OPEC+ agreement, Russia's daily production quota for June had increased by 78,000 barrels to 9.161 million barrels. However, Moscow had also committed to a 111,000 barrel-a-day compensation cut for the month, bringing its actual output target to 9.050 million barrels per day.

On July 5, eight OPEC+ nations collectively agreed to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, aiming to capitalize on strong summer consumption. Analysts suggest these additional barrels may be quickly absorbed but could contribute to a crude surplus later in the year.

Independent verification of Russia's oil output data has become challenging since Moscow classified official figures after Western sanctions targeting the nation's energy industry following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, market watchers now largely rely on indicators such as seaborne exports and domestic refinery runs to track trends in Russia's oil production.

Russia striking NATO while China invades Taiwan ‘plausible’ scenario, experts say

If Beijing moves against Taiwan, NATO might soon find itself in a two-front war with China and Russia — or so the alliance’s secretary general believes. “If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin… and telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,’” Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a July 5 interview with the New

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Russia's economy, which defied initial sanctions and saw growth propelled by massive military spending and robust oil exports, is now showing significant signs of a downturn.

Recent economic indicators are flashing red, with manufacturing activity declining, consumer spending tightening, and inflation remaining stubbornly high, straining the national budget, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on July 4.

Russian officials are openly acknowledging the risks of a recession. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned last month that Russia was on the "verge of a recession," while Finance Minister Anton Siluanov described the situation as a "perfect storm." Companies, from agricultural machinery producers to furniture makers, are reducing output. The central bank announced on July 3 it would debate cutting its benchmark interest rate later this month, following a reduction in June.

While analysts suggest this economic sputtering is unlikely to immediately alter President Vladimir Putin’s war objectives—as his focus on "neutering Ukraine" overrides broader economic concerns—it exposes the limits of his war economy.

The slowdown indicates that Western sanctions, though not a knockout blow, are increasingly taking a toll. If sanctions intensify further or global oil prices fall, Russia’s economy could face more severe instability. This downturn undermines Putin's strategic bet that Russia can financially outlast Ukraine and its Western allies, suggesting Moscow may struggle to finance the war indefinitely.

Death of top Russian oil executive fuels fresh scrutiny of elite’s ‘window falls’

The unexplained death of a top Russian oil executive on July 4 is fueling renewed scrutiny over the rising number of high-profile Russian officials and businessmen who have died under mysterious circumstances, specifically, have fallen out of windows. Andrei Badalov, vice president of Transneft, Russia’s largest state-controlled pipeline transport company,

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Experts warn that Russia's economic growth model, overly reliant on military spending, is unsustainable and necessitates a contraction of civilian economic capacities to free up workers for the war machine, which is not a viable long-term strategy. Putin recently dismissed suggestions that the war is stifling the economy, echoing Mark Twain by stating reports of its death "are greatly exaggerated." However, he also cautioned that a recession or stagflation "should not be allowed under any circumstances."

After a brief recession in 2022, military spending, which accounts for over 6% of gross domestic product this year (the highest since Soviet times) and approximately 40% of total government spending, had propped up Russia’s economy and blunted the impact of Western sanctions. Russia’s ability to reroute oil exports to China and Beijing’s support with electronics and machinery provided additional economic stimulus. This created an economic paradox: the most sanctioned major economy was, for a period, growing faster than many advanced economies.

However, this military spending "sugar rush" fueled runaway inflation, compelling the central bank to raise interest rates to a record 21% to try and tame it. Higher interest rates increased borrowing costs for businesses, curbing investment, expansion plans, and squeezing profits. The economic comedown has already begun.

Official data shows Russian GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, down significantly from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024. S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index indicated Russia’s manufacturing sector contracted at its sharpest rate in over three years in June, and new car sales dropped nearly 30% year-over-year in June.

Businesses across Russia are feeling the effects, according to the WSJ. Rostselmash, the country’s largest producer of agricultural machinery, announced in May it would cut production and investment, and pull forward mandatory annual leave for its 15,000 employees due to a lack of demand. In Siberia, electricity grid operator Rosseti Sibir stated it was on the verge of bankruptcy due to high debt, halting investments and proposing tariff hikes for industrial users.

While some analysts argue the Russian banking system remains stable, others warn of increasing instability. A recent report by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted risks from a government decision to control war-related lending at major Russian banks. The state could direct banks to offer preferential loans, potentially forcing the government to absorb losses if high interest rates prevent companies from meeting obligations.

The Moscow-based Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting also assessed in May that the risk of a protracted systemic banking crisis in 2026 was "moderate" and growing.

These economic challenges intensify pressure on the Kremlin by reducing its financial capacity to fund its war in Ukraine. The government has operated with a budget deficit throughout the war and projects this will continue for at least two more years. This fiscal strain could provide an opening for Western nations to implement more powerful sanctions.

Falling oil prices present another significant risk for Russia, as energy sales account for about a third of its budget revenues. The price of Russian crude has consistently remained below the level assumed in this year’s budget, and Russia’s oil-and-gas revenue in June fell to its lowest level since January 2023, according to Finance Ministry data.

Trump says Putin ‘wants to keep killing people,’ signals US may send Patriots to Ukraine

“It just seems like he wants to go all the way and just keep killing people. It’s not good,” U.S. President Donald Trump said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Iran is reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would spike global oil prices and give a significant boost to the Russian economy and its war machine in Ukraine.

Reuters reported on July 1 that Iran loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf last month, citing two U.S. officials, who said the preparations had been detected after Israel launched its "preemptive" attack against Iran on June 13.

Amid the conflict with Israel which has currently settled into an uneasy ceasefire, Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz as a means of deterrence.

If the Strait were mined, Iran could block one-fifth of global oil demand and spike world energy prices — a boon for Russia's oil-dependent economy.

"Any disruption to Gulf supplies would push up global crude prices. Prices for Russian crude would rise in line," John Gawthrop, Argus Eurasia Energy editor, told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia’s energy sector made up 35-40% of its budget revenues pre-full-scale invasion and is powering its war machine.

Western sanctions on Russian energy and the G7’s Russian oil price cap of $60 per barrel have hampered its profits, with Russia losing more than $150 billion over the last three years, but have yet to deal a crippling blow.

The conflict between Israel and Iran caused a spike in prices — Brent crude, the global benchmark, on June 13 jumped from $69.36 to $75 per barrel, a surge that looked like it could grant Russia's economy a reprieve.

Until the Israeli attacks, the future for Russian crude wasn’t looking so bright. Europe was planning its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia's energy sector, and the G7 was pushing for a $45 price cap. Hungary and Slovakia have since blocked the sanctions package.

Prices have since settled along with the conflict and on July 2 Brent crude was $67.50, but if Iran does go ahead with mining the Strait of Hormuz, blocking one-fifth of global oil demand, another surge would follow.

This would also mean Iran blocks its own oil exports too, so it would only be a last resort from Tehran, David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, a market analyst group, told the Kyiv Independent last month.

Arrests, raids, beaten and bloodied suspects — how Russia-Azerbaijan relations have unravelled

Deaths in custody, media offices raided, and beaten and bloodied suspects paraded in court — relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, once considered close, have sharply deteriorated in recent days amid a series of high-profile incidents. The latest tensions erupted over the weekend when Russian law enforcement officers detained over 50 Azerbaijani

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Ukrainian drones struck the Saratovorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Saratov Oblast, causing damage to the facility, Ukraine's General Staff reported on July 1.

"An important facility has been hit," the General Staff said via its official Telegram channel.

The Saratovorgsintez refinery and chemical plant, owned by Russian energy giant Lukoil, is located nearly 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukraine's border in the city of Saratov. The city hosts multiple strategic military and industrial sites.

The refinery was targeted to "reduce the enemy's offensive capabilities," the General Staff wrote.

"The occupiers use the capacity of this refinery to supply fuel and lubricants to Russian military units involved in the armed aggression against Ukraine."

The attack was a joint operation carried out by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) and other military units, the General Staff said. A fire broke out at the site of the attack and damage to the refinery's technological installations has been confirmed. The full consequences of the strike are still being investigated.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

The report is the latest in a series of announcements on July 1 about successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets. Earlier in the day, HUR released footage of Ukraine's UJ-26 drones, commonly known as Bober (Beavers), targeting high-value Russian air defenses and a fighter jet in occupied Crimea.

A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent that Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian military plant in the city of Izhevsk, over 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) from the front lines.

Ukraine also hit a Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, according to the General Staff.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km from border, SBU source says

Key developments on July 1: * ‘With surgical precision’ — Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km away, SBU source says * Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills brigade commander, injures 30 people, Zelensky says * Ukrainian forces hit Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, General Staff says * Zelensky signs ratification of

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Around 50% of Americans support sanctions against countries that purchase Russian oil and gas, according to the results of a YouGov poll published on June 27.

A bipartisan sanctions bill in the U.S. Senate aims to slap 500% tariffs on imports from countries that continue to purchase Russian energy products. U.S. President Donald Trump has not backed the measure and a vote on the bill has reportedly been postponed.

In a YouGov survey of adult U.S. citizens conducted June 12-16, 24% said they "strongly support" sanctioning Russian energy buyers while 25% said they "somewhat support" secondary sanctions against these countries.

Like the Senate bill, support for secondary sanctions among respondents was bipartisan. Of "strong supporters," 26% indentified as Democrats while 27% were Republicans.

More Republicans than Democrats said they favored the specific 500% tariff penalty proposed by legislators. While 29% of respondents who "strongly supported" the measure were Democrats, 41% were Republicans. Only 32% of survey respondents overall said they supported the 500% tariff.

The 500% tariff has been championed by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally and co-author of the sanctions bill alongside Democrat Richard Blumenthal. Along with tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, the bill would also slap "bone-crushing" new sanctions against Russia, according to Graham.

A majority of Americans support increasing or maintaining U.S. sanctions against Russia, the survey found. Here the division along party lines is stark, with 59% of those in favor of increasing sanctions on Moscow identifying as Democrats and only 37% identifying as Republicans.

The poll also showed that about 50% of Americans oppose cutting military aid to Ukraine. According to YouGov, 26% of U.S. adults are in favor of increasing military aid while 23% believe Washington should maintain its current levels of support.

The results illustrate the contrast between the prevailing views of the American public and the policies of the Trump administration. Trump has repeatedly undercut the Senate sanctions bill, requesting delays to the vote and calling on lawmakers to weaken the proposed measures.

While Trump has at times threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia, he has never followed through on any of those threats and consistently shoots down domestic and international appeals to get tough on Moscow. At the recent G7 Summit in Canada, Trump reportedly insisted that sanctions would be at odds with U.S. business interests.  

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also announced earlier this month that Washington will cut military aid to Ukraine in its upcoming defense budget.

‘Putin cannot stop’ – Estonian foreign minister says war in Ukraine existential for Russian president

As Russia continues to intensify its onslaught on Ukraine more than three years into the full-scale invasion, Kyiv faces a new challenge – keeping its Western allies, namely the new U.S. administration, engaged in the struggle. This became clear during the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25, where

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

U.S. President Donald Trump on June 23 called for urgent measures to prevent rising oil prices amid escalating tensions with Iran.

"Everyone, keep oil prices down. I'm watching," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "To the Department of Energy: Drill, baby, drill! And I mean now."

The post comes after global oil prices surged on June 13 following a series of Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The escalation sparked fears of broader conflict in the energy-rich Middle East, home to critical oil shipping routes.

The surge in oil prices risks undermining Western attempts to curb Russia's war funding, as the Kremlin relies heavily on oil revenues to sustain its invasion of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that a price surge could further embolden the Kremlin.

On June 21, the U.S. joined Israel in conducting airstrikes that targeted three nuclear facilities in Iran — Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. The operation triggered a strong response from Tehran, which threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance responded on June 22 that any Iranian attempt to shut the strategic waterway would "destroy their own economy." The strait is a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies, with nearly a fifth of the world's oil passing through it daily.

Amid the turmoil, the EU has reportedly postponed plans to tighten the $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian crude, originally imposed in December 2022. The mechanism restricts Western firms from shipping or insuring Russian oil sold above that threshold.

The Russian Finance Ministry has relied heavily on energy revenues to sustain defense spending, which hit record highs this year.

Ukraine has evidence Russia prepares military operations in Europe, Zelensky says

“We are observing a continued intellectual decline within the Russian leadership and have evidence that they are preparing new military operations on European territory,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentNatalia Yermak

Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory between January and May have cost Russia over $10 billion, including $1.3 billion in direct damage to industrial facilities and infrastructure, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists on June 21.

The indirect damage caused by the disruption of Russian industrial activities is estimated at $9.5 billion, putting the cost-to-result ratio of Ukrainian deep strikes at 1:15, Syrskyi said at a briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent.

Kyiv has ramped up drone attacks against Russian military and industrial sites far behind the border as part of its DeepStrike strategy, seeking to undermine Moscow's ability to wage war.

The attacks targeted Russia's oil refining sector, the fuel and lubricants facilities, energy and transport support, and strategic lines of communication.

"Remember that during negotiations, the Russian side listed a halt to strikes against the oil refining industry as one of the conditions. This shows that our strikes are truly effective," Syrskyi said.

Oil and gas exports are among Russia's key revenue sources and play a crucial role in sustaining its war effort.

"Of course, we will continue (attacking deep inside Russian territory). We will increase the scale and the depth," the commander added, stressing that the attacks target solely military facilities.

Ukraine has increased the production of long-range drones with the support of Western partners and developed new tactics in striking Russia behind the lines.

In one of the most audacious attacks, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on June 1 struck dozens of Russian bombers and other aircraft across four different air bases in an operation dubbed Spiderweb. SBU drones were smuggled to Russia in trucks and then deployed to attack airfields thousands of kilometers from the Russia-Ukraine border.

Russia ‘afraid to admit’ scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers’ bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says

Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

The European Union has postponed a move to lower the existing price cap on Russian oil, after concerns that the Iran-Israel conflict could lead to higher prices, Politico reported on June 20, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

The price cap, introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

Ukraine has been calling on Western partners to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $30 per barrel. Meanwhile, two diplomats told Politico that the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel would make it impossible to impose new restrictions.

"The idea of lowering the price cap is probably not going to fly because of the international situation in the Middle East and the volatility," said one diplomat on the condition of anonymity.

The issue of reducing the price cap on Russian oil was discussed during the Group of Seven (G7) summit, which was held June 15-17 in Canada. However, the participants failed to reach a consensus.

"At the G7 meeting this week, it was agreed by all the countries they would prefer not to take the decision right now," the diplomat added. "The prices were quite close to the cap; but now the prices are going up and down, the situation is too volatile for the moment."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during the G7 summit that the existing measures on Russian oil exports "had little effect," while noting that oil prices had risen in recent days, so "the cap in place does serve its function. "

Global oil prices spiked on June 13, after Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a long-range war between the two countries that has continued for over a week.

Brent and Nymex crude prices surged more than 10% before stabilizing around 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20 as of June 20, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to restrict the wartime revenue of the Russian state, which depend heavily on oil exports.

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas previously urged the European Union to pursue lowering the oil price cap on Russian oil, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia's revenues.

After 3 years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe finally lays out road map to detox from Russian oil and gas

After three years of limited measures and political hangovers, the European Union has laid out a legal roadmap to finally end its long-standing addiction to Russian oil and gas. Under a new legislative proposal announced in Strasbourg on June 17, Brussels aims to cut off all remaining imports of Russian

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

Australia has, for the first time, imposed sanctions on Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, targeting 60 vessels used to circumvent international sanctions and sustain the Kremlin's war effort in Ukraine, the Australian government said on June 18.

The move aligns Canberra with similar measures introduced by the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union.

Australia's Foreign Ministry said the sanctioned vessels operate under "deceptive practices, including flag-hopping, disabling tracking systems and operating with inadequate insurance," enabling illicit Russian oil trade that undermines international sanctions.

"Russia uses these vessels to circumvent international sanctions and sustain its illegal and immoral war against Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement.

With this move, Australia has now sanctioned more than 1,400 Russian individuals and entities since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the government said.

The step comes amid the continued operation of Russia's shadow fleet. According to a recent study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), Russia currently operates 435 tankers outside the control of Western regulators to evade sanctions such as the G7-EU price cap on Russian oil.

These vessels are typically un- or underinsured and pose a rising environmental risk due to their age and operational opacity.

KSE estimates that as of April 2024, 83% of Russia's crude oil and 46% of its petroleum product exports were shipped using shadow fleet tankers. The study warns that this undermines the effectiveness of Western sanctions and increases the likelihood of maritime disasters, as many of these ships fall outside international safety and insurance standards.

The EU formally adopted its 17th sanctions package against Russia in May, sanctioning nearly 200 vessels tied to the shadow fleet. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the new measures also target hybrid threats and human rights violations, with more sanctions under consideration.

Some EU member states and observers have criticized the package for lacking stronger provisions to disrupt Russia's sanction evasion schemes.

Now, the EU seeks to approve its 18th sanctions package, which will add 77 more shadow fleet vessels to comply with the cap to prevent Russia from circumventing sanctions and propose imposing a ban on imports of petroleum products made from Russian oil.

The United States has signaled reluctance to pursue additional sanctions despite Moscow's continued aggression in Ukraine and rejection of ceasefire proposals supported by Western allies.

Putin ‘cannot be trusted’ as mediator, Kallas says, urges EU to tighten Russian oil cap after deadly Kyiv strike

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas urged the European Union to press forward with lowering the oil price cap on Russian crude, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia’s revenues.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot be trusted" to mediate peace in the Middle East while continuing to launch brutal attacks against civilians, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said on June 17, following a mass Russian strike on Kyiv that killed at least 21 people and injured over 130.

"Clearly, President Putin is not somebody who can talk about peace while we see actions like this,” Kallas said during a briefing in Brussels. "He's not a mediator that can really be considered. Russia cannot be a mediator if they don't really believe in peace."

Russia has sought to position itself as a potential mediator in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on June 17 that Israel appeared unwilling to accept Russia’s offer of mediation.

President Donald Trump said on June 15 that Putin had expressed willingness to help mediate between Tel Aviv and Tehran — an idea already dismissed by France. EU leaders have also questioned Moscow’s neutrality given its deep military ties with Iran, which has supplied Russia with drones and missiles used in attacks on Ukraine.

Kallas also pointed to Iran's role in enabling Russia's attacks. "Iran has helped Russia do these attacks… their cooperation is working in this regard," she said.

Kallas urged the European Union to press forward with lowering the oil price cap on Russian oil, even without U.S. support, warning that Middle East tensions could otherwise drive prices up and boost Russia's revenues.

"The whole idea of the oil price cap is to lower the prices," Kallas said. "We shouldn't end up in a situation where the crisis in the Middle East increases oil prices and makes Russia earn more… that would mean they can fund their war machine on a bigger scale."

Her warning comes after global oil prices soared on June 13, following an Israeli strike on Iran that raised fears of a broader regional conflict. Brent and Nymex crude prices surged more than 10% before stabilizing around 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to restrict Russia’s wartime revenues, which heavily depend on oil exports.

Earlier, Kallas said the EU can act independently to lower the oil price ceiling, noting that most Russian crude flows through European-controlled waters.

"Even if the Americans are not on board, we can still do it and have an impact," she said.

Her remarks come as the EU works on its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia's energy, banking, and defense sectors. The 17th package entered into force on May 20. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said new measures will further target Russia's war-sustaining supply chains.

Kallas spoke hours after one of Russia's deadliest attacks on Kyiv since the start of its full-scale invasion. The nearly nine-hour assault saw Moscow fire 472 aerial weapons, including over 280 Shahed drones and multiple cruise and ballistic missiles.

Ukraine's Air Force reported intercepting 428 targets, but several missiles hit residential buildings, including a nine-story apartment block in Solomianskyi district, where 16 people were killed.

President Volodymyr Zelensky called the assault "one of the most horrifying attacks on Kyiv" and again called on Western leaders to act decisively.

After 3 years of full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe finally lays out road map to detox from Russian oil and gas

After three years of limited measures and political hangovers, the European Union has laid out a legal roadmap to finally end its long-standing addiction to Russian oil and gas. Under a new legislative proposal announced in Strasbourg on June 17, Brussels aims to cut off all remaining imports of Russian

The Kyiv IndependentAlex Cadier

An uninsured Russian Aframax-class tanker has been illegally conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in international waters near Greece and Cyprus since July 2024, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on June 16.

According to the agency, the vessel, operating without Western insurance, is part of Russia's expanding shadow fleet used to bypass G7 and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports.

HUR said such transfers "pose an environmental threat, allow the aggressor to conceal the origin of oil, evade international control, and ensure its supply to third countries in circumvention of sanctions."

Ukraine has identified the tanker as IMO 9247443 and listed it on the War&Sanctions platform, along with 159 other tankers allegedly belonging to Russia's shadow fleet and 55 captains involved in sanction-busting operations.

Despite price caps and Western restrictions, Russia continues to profit from oil and gas exports, which remain a vital revenue source. According to HUR estimates, roughly one-third of those profits are expected to fund Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025.

In May, the EU approved its 17th sanctions package, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet vessels. The U.S. Treasury had earlier sanctioned over 180 tankers, which together accounted for nearly half of Russia's offshore oil shipments.

While the Biden administration ramped up pressure on Russia's oil trade early in 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump has since declined to impose new sanctions, despite Moscow's continued refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

The United States is opposing a proposal by other Group of Seven nations to lower the price cap on Russian oil, Bloomberg reported on June 13.

Citing unnamed sources, Bloomberg said the U.S. remains opposed to reducing the cap from $60 to $45 per barrel – a position it first took earlier this year when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined to support a similar effort.

The price cap, introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

Despite U.S. resistance, the European Union and United Kingdom – backed by other European G7 countries and Canada – have said they are prepared to move forward with the proposal, even without Washington's endorsement.

One source told Bloomberg that the EU and U.K. could explore lowering the cap without the U.S., as most of Russia's oil is transported in European waters. However, a unified G7 agreement would carry greater impact if it could be enforced by the U.S.

The price cap debate has become more urgent as oil prices, which had fallen below the $60 cap in recent months, surged following Israel's strikes against Iran in the past 24 hours.

G7 leaders will revisit the price cap discussion during the upcoming summit, hosted by Canada from June 15-17 in Kananaskis County, Alberta.

The summit agenda will also include topics such as support for Ukraine in the Russian war, global economic stability, digital transformation, and climate change.

The G7 currently includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The European Union is also represented in the group.

Israel-Iran war could provide economic boost Russia needs to continue fight against Ukraine

Israel’s “preemptive” strikes against Iran targeting the country’s nuclear program and killing top military officials could have far-reaching implications for Ukraine and could boost Russia’s ability to continue its full-scale invasion, experts have told the Kyiv Independent. Iran has been one of Russia’s staunchest allies throughout the war, providing thousands

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Global oil prices soared on June 13  after Israel launched a strike on Iran, triggering fears of a broader conflict in the energy-rich Middle East that could disrupt global supplies, the BBC reported.

The spike threatens to undermine Western efforts to choke off a vital revenue stream for Russia, which relies heavily on oil profits to sustain its war in Ukraine.

According to the BBC, Brent and Nymex crude prices jumped by more than 10% following the Israeli attack, reaching their highest levels since January. Prices later stabilized but remained about 7.5% higher, with Brent at $74.50 a barrel and Nymex at $73.20.

The price surge comes at a crucial time for Ukraine and its Western allies, who are intensifying efforts to minimize the Kremlin's oil revenues — the backbone of Russia's wartime economy.

President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the European Union on June 11 to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, including a more aggressive price cap on oil exports.

"A ceiling of $45 per barrel of oil is better than $60, that's clear," Zelensky said at the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit in Odesa. "But real peace will come with a ceiling of $30. That's the level that will really change the mindset in Moscow."

The EU's current $60 per barrel cap, introduced in December 2022, prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or servicing Russian oil sold above the threshold. While this measure has curtailed some of Russia's profits, the Kremlin continues to earn significant revenue, especially when market prices rise.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on June 10 that the EU is considering lowering the cap to $45, a move that will be discussed at the G7 summit in Canada between June 15 and 17. According to Reuters, most G7 countries, excluding the U.S. and Japan, are prepared to proceed with the reduction regardless of Washington’s stance.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early on June 13 that Israeli forces had launched "Operation Rising Lion," a preemptive strike targeting Iran's nuclear program. In a televised address, Netanyahu claimed Israeli forces struck Iran's main nuclear enrichment site in Natanz and targeted key nuclear scientists.

Key to Russia’s defeat lies in its economy

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, attention remains fixed on the battlefield. But Russia’s most vulnerable flank is not in the trenches — it’s in the treasury. The West, and especially the United States, holds economic levers that could push Vladimir Putin toward serious negotiations or even collapse

The Kyiv IndependentWojciech Jakóbik

Most Group of Seven (G7) nations are prepared to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 a barrel even without support from the United States, Reuters reported on June 12, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

According to Reuters, the European Union and United Kingdom, backed by other European G7 countries and Canada, are ready to lead the charge in lowering the Russian oil price cap – even if U.S. President Donald Trump opts out.

The price cap, which bans Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel, was first introduced in December 2022 as a measure to limit the Kremlin's ability to finance its war against Ukraine.

The G7 had previously attempted to lower the Russian oil price cap; however, the proposal was dropped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly declined to support it.

It is unclear whether the U.S. will support the decision this time around. Japan's position is also undecided.

Participating country leaders will revisit the price cap discussion at the upcoming G7 summit. Canada, which holds the G7 presidency this year, will host the summit on June 15-17 in Kananaskis County, located in the western province of Alberta.

The summit agenda will include topics such as support for Ukraine in the Russian war, global economic stability, digital transformation, and climate change.

President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to attend the summit and seek a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.

EU could impose Russian oil price cap without US support, Kallas says

The European Union can impose an additional price cap on Russian oil without U.S. support, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said at the Brussels Forum on June 11.

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn