Germany’s intelligence chief disclosed that Russia intends to challenge NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pact, which states that an armed attack against one NATO member in Europe or North America is considered an attack against all members. 

“We are absolutely certain and have intelligence evidence confirming that Ukraine is just one stage on its path westward,” Kahl stated.

“They don’t need to send tanks for that,” Kahl added. “They just have to send ‘little green men’ to Estonia to defend the allegedly oppressed Russian minority.”

However, Kahl clarified that German intelligence does not anticipate conventional military operations involving large armored formations moving from east to west. This suggests Russia may pursue alternative methods, such as cyberattacks or energy coercion, to challenge NATO’s resolve.

Sinan Selen, deputy head of Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), reported escalating Russian cyber operations and sabotage activities targeting Western nations. According to Selen, Russian aggression in Ukraine has intensified pressure on German cyber defense and counterintelligence capabilities.

According to Kahl, Russia’s objectives include reversing NATO’s eastward expansion to 1990s boundaries, removing American military presence from Europe, and expanding Russian influence regardless of cost. The intelligence chief emphasized the need to counter these efforts immediately. Despite tensions, Kahl noted that German-American intelligence cooperation remains stable. 

Previous warnings of NATO-Russia conflict 

Earlier, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could potentially attack NATO countries by 2029 or 2030 due to its rapid military industrialization and expansion of armed forces, which are expected to reach 1.5 million troops by 2026.

He highlighted that Russia currently produces more weapons and ammunition in a few months than all EU countries combined produce in a year, signaling a significant buildup. 

NATO intelligence sources told a Finnish newspaper that Russia is actively maintaining and updating plans for a potential multi-front offensive against NATO’s eastern flank, targeting Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states, with intelligence indicating it could amass up to 600,000 troops along these borders despite its main forces being engaged in Ukraine. 

NATO officials and intelligence sources, including Sweden’s Armed Forces Commander and US Vice Admiral Douglas Perry, assess a Russian attack as inevitable rather than hypothetical, emphasizing Russia’s willingness to accept massive casualties and use missile strikes on civilian targets, mirroring tactics used in Ukraine.

Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.

He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.

This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.

Questioning the sovereignty of nations

Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.

Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.

Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.

The return of a dangerous word: “denazification”

The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.

Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.

NATO’s Achilles heel

From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.

Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.

Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.

Russia’s Baltic fleet faces a NATO wall

At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.

Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.

These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.

No longer just words

Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.

These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.

Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.

Russia repeats Ukraine’s playbook

The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.

What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.

The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.

Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.

The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.

For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.