Kremlin officials publicly stated that Russia seeks the “complete destruction” of Ukraine, signaling Moscow’s lack of interest in genuine peace negotiations, according to recent statements analyzed by the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia’s Istanbul memorandum reflects the Kremlin’s public demands for Ukraine to make significant territorial and political concessions while Russia offers no concessions of its own.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 3 June that Russia needs negotiations in Istanbul to result in Russia’s “swift victory [in Ukraine] and the complete destruction” of the Ukrainian government rather than a “compromise[d] peace on someone else’s delusional terms,” the ISW reports.

Medvedev stated that Russia’s 2 June Istanbul memorandum aligned with these objectives and threatened that Russia will “explode” everything and “disappear” anyone who opposes Russia in response to recent Ukrainian drone strikes.

The operation Spider Web on 1 June involved over 100 Ukrainian drones, covertly transported into Russia hidden in trucks, which targeted Russian strategic airbases destroying or damaging 41 long-range bombers used for attacks on Ukraine.

The ISW assesses that Russian officials have engaged with the United States in bilateral meetings as part of ongoing US mediation efforts, but have yet to demonstrate willingness to compromise on their long-standing demands.

Russia remains committed to pursuing demands that amount to nothing short of Ukraine’s full capitulation and will continue this objective as long as Putin believes Russia can militarily defeat Ukraine.

Simultaneously, Russia continues expanding its military capabilities against Ukraine, with reports by Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate showing that Russian forces had stockpiled over 13,000 ballistic, cruise, and other missiles as of mid-May 2025.

The stockpile includes almost 600 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, over 100 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, almost 300 Kh-101 cruise missiles, over 400 Kalibr cruise missiles, up to 300 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, about 700 Oniks cruise missiles and Zirkon anti-ship missiles, about 60 North Korean-produced KN-23 ballistic missiles, and approximately 11,000 S-300/400 air defense missiles.

The intelligence directorate estimated that Russia can produce roughly 150-200 missiles per month. The ISW concludes that Russian efforts to increase domestic drone and missile production and ongoing adaptation of strike packages are likely part of preparations for a prolonged war in Ukraine and possibly a future conflict against NATO.

In May 2025, the ISW also reported that Russia increased production of Shahed drones from about 100 to a planned 500 per day, and upgrading drone technologies with AI and improved navigation to evade Ukrainian defenses.

Russian ex-President Dmitry Medvedev's statement that Russia seeks only a "swift victory" and the "complete destruction" of the Ukrainian government at the Istanbul peace talks is a "rare moment of honesty," U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said on June 3.

"I appreciate you making it clear to the world that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and Russia are not remotely interested in peace," said Graham, a Republican lawmaker backing a bill on major new sanctions against Russia.

Graham made the statement in reaction to Medvedev's Telegram post, in which the deputy chairman of the Russian security council admitted that "the Istanbul negotiations are not intended for reaching a compromise peace based on someone's unrealistic conditions."

Russia and Ukraine held the second round of peace negotiations on June 2, during which Russia yet again rejected a long-term ceasefire and instead presented a memorandum with a list of harsh demands on Kyiv.

These reportedly included official recognition of Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territories, Ukraine's full withdrawal from four partially occupied regions, a ban on joining NATO, limits on the military, and more conditions.

Moscow's real goal in the talks is a "swift victory and the complete destruction" of the Ukrainian government, Medvedev said. He referred to Ukrainian authorities as a "neo-Nazi regime," referring to Russia's false narratives about the Nazi-led government in Kyiv that were used as a pretext for Russian aggression.

"This is the meaning of the Russian memorandum published yesterday (June 2)." Medvedev has gained notoriety during the full-scale war for his theatrical and incendiary remarks aimed at Ukraine and its Western partners.

Ukraine has repeatedly accused Moscow of intentionally stalling the negotiations to allow its forces to take more territory in the meantime.

"Our army is actively advancing and will continue to advance. Everything that should explode will explode, and everybody who should be exterminated will disappear," Medvedev said.

During the talks in Istanbul, the Ukrainian delegation also presented a peace proposal, which included a prisoner swap in an all-for-all format, the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, as well as the release of all civilians held in Russian captivity.

According to the Ukrainian proposal seen by the Kyiv Independent, Kyiv would retain its right to join the EU and NATO. Ukraine also highlighted the need for security guarantees to avoid further Russian invasion.

Like the first round of talks on May 16, this week's negotiations ended without any tangible progress toward a long-term ceasefire or a peace deal. Instead, the two parties agreed on a new prisoner exchange, which could involve up to 1,200 prisoners on each side.

Moscow also proposed a brief ceasefire lasting up to three days to collect the bodies of fallen soldiers.

President Volodymyr Zelensky called upon U.S. President Donald Trump to adopt tougher sanctions against Russia if the Istanbul talks fail to achieve progress. A bipartisan bill proposed by Graham, which he said will "start moving" forward this week, would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products.

BREAKING: Russia’s Crimean Bridge rocked by explosions, Ukraine’s SBU claims responsibility

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck the Crimean Bridge for the third time during the full-scale war, mining and damaging its underwater supports, the SBU announced on June 3.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.

He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.

This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.

Questioning the sovereignty of nations

Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.

Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.

Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.

The return of a dangerous word: “denazification”

The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.

Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.

NATO’s Achilles heel

From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.

Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.

Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.

Russia’s Baltic fleet faces a NATO wall

At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.

Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.

These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.

No longer just words

Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.

These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.

Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.

Russia repeats Ukraine’s playbook

The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.

What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.

The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.

Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.

The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.

For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg called on Russia to implement an immediate ceasefire following threats of World War III from a senior Russian official.

The exchange began when Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev responded to Trump’s recent comments that Russian President Vladimir Putin was “playing with fire” and that “very bad things” were happening to Russia.

Medvedev warned that he knew of only “one VERY BAD thing – World War III,” adding that he hoped “Trump understands this,” according to his post on social media platform X.

Kellogg characterized Medvedev’s statement as “an unfortunate and reckless comment” that was “unfitting of a world power.”

The special envoy emphasized that President Trump is “working to stop this war and end the killing.”

According to Kellogg, the US is still awaiting a Russian memorandum containing Moscow’s terms for a potential agreement, which he said Russia had promised to deliver a week earlier.

“We await receipt of RU Memorandum (Term Sheet) that you promised a week ago. Cease fire now,” Kellogg stated.

According to Kellogg’s previous statements, the US received a list of conditions from Kyiv regarding ending the war but had not yet received corresponding terms from Moscow.

Ukraine’s terms emphasize a full ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, and security guarantees, while firmly rejecting Russian demands such as territorial concessions or recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied regions. Moscow also insists on Ukraine abandoning NATO membership plans, adopting neutrality, lifting some Western sanctions, and providing protections for Russian-speaking populations.

Kyiv continues to consider venues like the Vatican for negotiations, though Russia has rejected this option.  

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg on May 27 criticized former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for comments that alluded to the threat of World War III, calling them "reckless" and "unfitting of a world power."

"President (Donald) Trump... is working to stop this war and end the killing. We await receipt of (the Russian) Memorandum... that you promised a week ago. Cease fire now," Kellogg said on X.

The envoy's remarks came in response to a tweet from Medvedev that referenced Trump’s recent warnings to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Regarding Trump's words about Putin 'playing with fire' and 'really bad things' happening to Russia. I only know of one really bad thing — WWIII," Medvedev wrote. "I hope Trump understands this!"

Medvedev's comments refer to Trump's recent posts on Truth Social, in which he reacted to Russia's weekend aerial attacks on Ukraine, including the largest drone assault since the start of the full-scale invasion. In the posts, Trump called Putin "crazy" and warned him that he was "playing with fire."

The U.S. president has increasingly voiced frustration with stalled peace efforts, signaling readiness to walk away from the process. Despite repeated threats of sanctions, Trump has not imposed any additional pressure on Moscow to push it toward a ceasefire agreement.

Russia has repeatedly rejected Kyiv and its Western partners' proposal for an unconditional ceasefire. Following Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul on May 16, the Russian leadership said it would present a memorandum toward a peaceful settlement.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia's delays in presenting the document are a "mockery of the whole world."

Sanctions on Russia are working, Ukraine just needs more

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The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell