The Institute for the Study of War reported on 15 September that Russian officials are intensifying threats against NATO member states following recent drone incursions into Poland, with top Kremlin figures warning of direct confrontation over Western support for Ukraine.

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 15 September that a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine permitting NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones would “mean only one thing – a war between NATO and Russia,” according to ISW analysis of his Russian- and English-language channels.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explicitly said on 15 September that “NATO is at war with Russia” and “NATO is de facto involved in” the war in Ukraine by providing support to Ukraine.

The threats target European financial measures against Russia. Medvedev warned that Russia will “go after” EU states providing Ukraine with loans backed by Russian assets in “all possible international and national courts.” He added that “in some cases, [Russia will] bypass court procedure” – what ISW characterizes as a possible threat to use kinetic action against EU states.

Peskov condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets, stating that “such steps will not go unnoticed,” according to the analysis.

ISW assesses that these statements aim to prevent NATO and European states from defending themselves and Ukraine against Russian provocations, including the 9-10 September drone incursion into Poland.

ISW notes that Kremlin officials routinely invoke narratives similar to those Russia used to justify its Ukraine invasions – including territorial claims and false characterizations of Euromaidan as a “coup” – when threatening neighboring states, including NATO members.

Meanwhile, Russian and Belarusian forces continued Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on 15 September, implementing tactical lessons from Ukraine operations, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Forces conducted training at Borisovsky and 227th Combined Arms training grounds in Minsk Oblast, Kaliningrad Oblast, and the Barents Sea.

The Russian MoD confirmed that Leningrad Military District elements practiced deploying nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missile systems in Kaliningrad Oblast, which borders NATO members Lithuania and Poland. The nuclear-capable Arkhangelsk submarine practiced launching missile strikes against naval targets, while Northern Fleet elements struck mock enemy submarines in the Barents Sea.

Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers patrolled “the neutral waters of the Barents Sea” for four hours, the MoD reported. The Belarusian MoD stated that representatives from 23 countries, including the United States, Hungary, and Türkiye, observed the exercises.

ISW highlights that Russian and Belarusian forces practiced maneuvering with all-terrain vehicles to reduce crossing times in open areas and decrease vulnerability to first-person view drone strikes – tactics developed from Ukraine battlefield experience. The exercises allow Russia to institutionalize combat lessons outside active combat zones while improving joint interoperability with Belarus.

The analysis warns that Russia is using Zapad-2025 to practice potential kinetic provocations against NATO states. Nuclear capability exercises occurred in Barents Sea waters bordering Norway and in Kaliningrad Oblast near Lithuania and Poland.

EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius said on 15 September that 40% of European flights face jamming – likely from Russia. ISW reported that Russian officials previously used Kaliningrad for GPS jamming across Europe and reportedly constructed a military-grade Circularly Disposed Antenna Array 25 kilometers from the Polish border.

The report concludes that Zapad-2025 provides Russia and Belarus a platform to refine escalation techniques that serve as pressure against NATO.

Poland fights a pro-Kremlin disinformation wave, PAP reports. Pro-Russian sentiments are rising in Poland, and the responsibility of politicians is to stop them, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said after Russian drone attacks on the country.

A wave created by the Kremlin

“A wave of pro-Russian sentiment and anti-Ukrainian feeling is rising, created by the Kremlin using real fears and emotions,” Tusk wrote on X on Sunday, 14 September.

He emphasized that the task of politicians is to stop this wave before it affects society.

As expected, the attack caused strong fear and insecurity among Polish citizens. The country hosts points through which foreign weapons are delivered to Ukraine, heightening concerns.

These sentiments are actively supported by some Polish right-wing politicians and media, which build campaigns on anti-criminal emotions while ignoring the significant contributions of Ukrainians to Poland’s economy and society.

The Kremlin deliberately spreads disinformation and provokes confrontation between Poland and Ukraine to weaken Western support for Ukraine.

Ukrainians’ contribution to Poland

In 2024, the Ukrainians in Poland contributed about 2.7% of the country’s GDP, over 99 billion zlotys, which is nearly $20 billion . They established more than 77,700 private enterprises between 2022–2024, accounting for about 12% of all new businesses in the country during that period.

Poland is fully aware of the attack

Earlier, Tusk assured that Polish services and the military know who is responsible for the drone attack.

“We will not be sensitive to manipulation and disinformation from Russia. Poland is confident about the sources, launch location, and intent of this action,” the Polish prime minister added.

Call for caution

The head of government urged Poles to rely only on verified information from official sources, including the military, services, and state media, to avoid panic and fake news.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not rushing to end the war in Ukraine, not only because of imperialist plans to restore the Soviet Union 2.0. Reuters reports, citing three sources close to the Kremlin, that the Russian leader is carefully controlling the demobilization process to avoid destabilizing society and the political system.

Afghan lesson: fear of social chaos

The Kremlin seeks to avoid repeating the social upheavals that followed the Soviet war in Afghanistan. At that time, returning veterans fueled a wave of organized crime that overshadowed the 1990s.

A similar dynamic could recur: many demobilized soldiers will not receive the generous salaries they had on the front lines, sparking discontent and protests. For example, a new recruit from Moscow earns at least $65,000 for the first year of service in Ukraine, including bonuses.

Returning to civilian life without such income could become a source of social tension.

PTSD and risk of domestic violence

Another Kremlin concern is the psychological state of soldiers. A high number of veterans with PTSD are returning home, posing dangers to their families.

Among the demobilized are individuals who have already served prison terms, including thieves, murderers, and rapists. Since 2022, Russia has recruited from 120,000 to 180,000 convicts for military service in Ukraine. 

Last year, about 500 civilians fell victim to the veterans, with at least 242 killed and 227 seriously injured, according to organizations analyzing Russian court records and media reports.

Kremlin control and political risks

Mass return of veterans could undermine Russia’s tightly controlled political system. The Kremlin already felt the effects of chaos in June 2023, when Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner PMC’s head, led a revolt against the military high command.

The Putin’s government is trying to mitigate the impact of returning veterans through policies, programs, and participation in regional and federal elections.

The return of demobilized soldiers, many of whom are hardened criminals or severely wounded, could replicate the Afghan scenario and threaten the country’s stability, especially considering that nearly 700,000 Russian troops remain on the front lines. 

Russia flaunts resilience in the face of new US and EU sanctions. The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has openly declared that it is impossible to force Moscow to change its course on Ukraine, Reuters reports. 

Kremlin dismisses Western sanctions

“No sanctions will be able to force the Russian Federation to change its consistent position, which our president has repeatedly voiced,” says Peskov.

The Kremlin’s spokesperson’s words aren’t far from the truth. Despite thousands of sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022, the Russian economy has stayed afloat.

Russia’s economy even grew by 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. But this year, growth has slowed sharply due to high interest rates and the costs of war. 

Ukraine calls for real security

Meanwhile, Ukrainian presidential sanctions adviser Vladyslav Vlasiuk has calculated that Russia has lost at least $150 billion due to sanctions, yet retains its military potential. The country remains the most sanctioned state in the world. 

At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stressed that real security guarantees, which can protect Ukraine from Russia, can only come from a strong Ukrainian army backed by support from its Western allies. 

However, as Washington has delayed a new package of military aid to Kyiv, the fighting between Russia and Ukraine is dragging on into a war of attrition for both sides.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed the possibility of extending human life to 150 years and the prospects of “biological immortality” at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, Bloomberg reports.

Technology and immortality

Vladimir Putin, born 7 October 1952, is 72. Xi Jinping, born 15 June 1953, is also 72.

Xi noted that in the past, most people did not live past 70, while today, “at 70, a person is still a child.”

“Due to the development of biotechnology, human organs can be transplanted continuously, and people will be able to live longer and longer, potentially even achieving immortality,” Putin responded. 

Putin compared this vision to ideas promoted by former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who actively advocated health and life extension initiatives.

Life amid death

These discussions come against the backdrop of the massive loss of life in Ukraine. Over one million Russians have died and been wounded during the war since 2022. Mariupol experienced mass killings with at least 100,000 civilians killed, and more than 13,800 civilians have been victims of missile attacks across Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin and his counterpart are discussing eternal life.

A secret document has exposed Hungary as the Kremlin’s “Trojan horse” inside the EU, say InformNapalm investigators. They have obtained a letter revealing the so-called “Ansat” project, a scheme discussed at the level of the Hungarian government with Russia’s state-owned Helicopters of Russia.

The plan was to use Hungary as a platform for legalizing and assembling Russian military equipment, which would then be exported under a “European” brand.

“While most EU countries stand with Ukraine and comply with sanctions, Budapest has become a gateway for Moscow to bypass restrictions and advance its military-industrial interests,” says InformPalm. 

How Hungary helped the Kremlin bypass sanctions

The document confirms that:

• The project was presented to Hungary’s Ministry of Finance and discussed at the government level.
• A joint working group was created with Hungarian officials, including a deputy state secretary of the Finance and Economy Ministry.
• Coordination was entrusted to Armitech Industries Ltd. in Budapest, a company openly lobbying for Russian interests.

Sanctions did not stop Moscow

The evidence shows that even after sanctions were imposed, the Kremlin actively built channels inside the EU to circumvent them. Hungary turned out to be one of its links, willing to shield Russia’s defense projects.

Orbán and political blockades in the EU and NATO

“Every time Orbán blocks EU aid to Ukraine or vetoes NATO decisions, remember: this is not just politics but direct collusion with Russia’s defense industry,” InformNapalm stresses.

Earlier, Hungary banned a top Ukrainian drone unit commander from entering the country and the Schengen zone after strikes on the Druzhba oil pipeline.

Hungarian officials called the pipeline vital for their country’s as Hungary is still receiving Russian oil and financing Moscow’s war machine against Ukraine, despite the fourth year of Russia’s all-out war. 

Hungary bans Ukrainian commander over Russian pipeline hit — latest sign of Budapest acting as Kremlin’s proxy in EU

“This is the end of Starlink internet for Ukraine.” Poland’s Digital Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski has sharply criticized President Karol Nawrocki’s decision to veto a law on assistance to Ukrainians who fled Russia’s war. 

According to Gawkowski, the president’s veto effectively blocks providing Ukraine with internet access via Starlink and halts support for storing data from the Ukrainian state administration in secure Polish data centers.

“Karol Nawrocki is shutting down the Internet for Ukraine with his decision… This is the end of Starlink internet, which Poland provides to Ukraine, waging war.

This is also the end of support for storing Ukrainian administration data in a safe place,” says Gawkowski. 

“A gift to the Kremlin”

Gawkowski has stressed that this step plays into Russia’s hands. 

“I can’t imagine a better gift for Putin’s troops than cutting off Ukraine from the internet, which the President has just decided,” he claims. 

Politics versus security

The deputy prime minister appealed to the president, urging him to stop using veto power as a political weapon.

“Mr. President – you must stop blindly throwing punches at the government in the name of political fighting. You are harming people who are fighting for their independence and at the same time helping Russia,” Gawkowski concludes. 

Earlier, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said Kyiv tested the revolutionary Starlink Direct to Cell technology for the first time.

It allows smartphones to connect directly to satellites without special antennas or equipment. The technology could keep communications running even during massive attacks and blackouts. 

Kyiv sends first wartime text via new Starlink’s tech — no Russian-made blackout can interrupt it