Ukrainian drone operators have begun teaching Estonia’s volunteer Defence League military warfare tactics in a program now in its third week, ERR reported on 16 June.

The training near Tapa base involves teams of volunteers hunting each other’s drones. “The specific task for this course is for the third weekend – we’ve split into two teams that have to find each other, report it, and call in long-range fire,” said operator Erki.

Ukrainian instructors currently on leave from the front lines are leading the program. “Artillery – that’s like the ‘weapon’ of God. I would say drones – those are the ‘eyes’ of God. Right now, nothing gets to happen without a drone,” said instructor “Max.”

Another instructor, “Picasso,” described combat reality: “In the evening we’re taken to our position – between 7 and 8 PM. You get out of the car, grab your gear, carry it into the dugout and start work right away. It lasts six hours. After that, you sleep for six hours. You fly, you bomb.”

Front-line deployments can last weeks. On average it is seven days and nights. “But the longest I’ve been there was 29 days,” “Picasso” said. Soldiers use Starlink because a 4G solution reportedly only shows the enemy the target.

Estonia’s new “Kullisilm” (Hawk’s eye) drone unit was announced last month. Current trainees will become instructors this fall, teaching new students in forest and bunker locations.

The program builds on Estonia’s purchase of over 100 training drones two years ago. Baltic neighbors Latvia and Lithuania also operate drone manufacturing facilities and transfer portions of production to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Politico reports Baltic countries are preparing hospitals for possible war with Russia.

Read also:

• UK intel: North Korea sent 11,000 troops to help Russia in Kursk—over half never came back
• The Telegraph: US cuts Ukraine aid, Europe still figuring out what “step up” means — and Kyiv goes DIY
• Iran’s strike on Israel kills five Ukrainians, including children, Kyiv says

Russia is already at Estonia’s gates. Tallinn may become the next target for Russia’s aggressive war because the Russians have several convenient pretexts for it, The Economist reports. 

For several years, Russia has been conducting a covert campaign of intimidation and destabilization against Estonia, using cyberattacks, undercover agents, sabotage, and legions of disinformation bots on social media.

NATO recognizes these risks and has been increasing its military presence in the region: currently, over 2,000 troops from allied countries are stationed in Estonia.

However, amid the reduction of American forces in Europe, Estonia could become the place where Russia first attempts to test the reliability of NATO’s Article 5 on collective defense. 

Between the 1950s and 1980s, the Kremlin resettled hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians to Estonia, and today they make up one-fifth of the country’s 1.4 million population. The largest number of them are living in the city of Narva, located right on the border with Russia. Nearly the entire population there is descended from Russian settlers.

More than 30 years later, Russians have shifted from a politically dominant group to a lower-class minority, though many in Narva still feel attached to the Soviet version of history.

Since the war in Ukraine began, Russian destabilizing efforts have intensified throughout Estonia. Last year, a sociology professor who seemed liberal was exposed as a Russian agent. In 2023, vandals damaged the cars of the Minister of Internal Affairs and the editor of a Russian-language news website.

At the same time, Russian attempts to recruit Russian speakers for minor sabotage through social media have found little support.

Russia recruits elderly in covert sabotage campaign across Ukraine and Europe

The war in Ukraine has united Estonians but divided the Russians living there. Some feel sympathy for their homeland, where many have relatives; some resent Estonian nationalism. Some are Putin supporters or simply wish for a brotherly alliance like in the old days. Others, especially younger people, warmly welcome Ukrainian refugees into their schools and communities.

Since 2022, the Estonian government has taken steps to isolate Estonia from Russia. It stopped issuing visas to Russian citizens, restricted Russian business activities, banned Russian TV channels from cable packages, and removed Soviet-era monuments. This year, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their electricity grids from Russia.

Most of the well-known and most controversial Estonian residents holding Russian passports, who previously could vote in municipal elections, will no longer be able to do so after this year’s elections.

The parliamentary foreign affairs committees of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania issued a joint statement on June 6, affirming their firm support for Ukraine both in its defense against Russia and in its pursuit of EU and NATO membership.

Following their meeting in Lithuania on June 6, the Baltic states reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s EU integration, stating their goal of concluding accession talks and welcoming Ukraine as a full EU member by Jan. 1, 2030.

Ukraine applied for EU membership in 2022 and was granted candidate status within months. Accession talks began in June 2024, with European leaders setting 2030 as a target for Ukraine's potential accession.

Despite broad EU support for Ukraine's accession, Hungary remains a major obstacle. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced on March 7 that his government would conduct an opinion survey on Ukraine's potential EU membership.

In their statement, the Baltic states also urged the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague to take "concrete political steps" toward Ukraine’s membership in the alliance. They argued that Ukraine's NATO accession would “consolidate a just and lasting peace not only in Ukraine but also in all of Europe" and help uphold the rules-based international order globally.

"Ukraine’s NATO membership would provide a more effective and enduring framework for safeguarding Euro-Atlantic security," the statement reads.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale war. The country has not received a formal invitation, as the 32 members have not reached a consensus.

The statement also reaffirmed the Baltic countries’ pledge to support Ukraine “until its full victory,” and welcomed expanding defense cooperation between Ukraine and like-minded partners. It encouraged inviting Ukraine to join the U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), calling it a meaningful step toward deeper regional security integration.

"We call upon the Foreign Affairs Committees of other national parliaments, international parliamentary assemblies, governments, and responsible institutions to endorse this statement and to adopt corresponding actions that would ensure continued and determined support for Ukraine’s victory, reconstruction, and full integration into the Euro-Atlantic community," the statement read.

Nordics, Baltics urge concrete steps toward Ukraine’s EU membership

In a joint letter, the foreign ministers of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia called on Brussels to put forward “concrete proposals on how to decisively advance Ukraine’s accession process.”

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.

He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.

This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.

Questioning the sovereignty of nations

Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.

Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.

Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.

The return of a dangerous word: “denazification”

The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.

Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.

NATO’s Achilles heel

From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.

Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.

Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.

Russia’s Baltic fleet faces a NATO wall

At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.

Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.

These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.

No longer just words

Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.

These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.

Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.

Russia repeats Ukraine’s playbook

The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.

What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.

The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.

Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.

The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.

For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.