The European Commission has formally approved €6.1 billion ($7.1 billion) for Ukraine's air defense, drones, and missiles, EU Defense and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius announced on 12 September. The decision lets Ukraine order American Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptors for its Patriot launchers, and it includes five exceptions to the EU's own purchasing rules. With it, all the defense money Europe set aside for Ukraine this year has been assigned.

What the decision unlocks

The funding will support Ukraine's ability to withstand what Kubilius called the continued intensification of Russian ballistic missile and drone strikes.

The money comes from the €90 billion ($105 billion) loan the EU built for Ukraine, of which €60 billion ($70 billion) is set aside for weapons across 2026 and 2027. One route runs through PURL, the arrangement under which allied governments pay for American weapons and NATO organizes delivery.

Five exceptions to Europe's own rules

The package carries five exemptions from the loan's standard purchasing rules, Kubilius said. Three of them cover Ukrainian-made drones and components that cost more than the rules allow. The other two cover American equipment, including the PAC-3 missiles.

The exceptions are what was settled this week. The Commission had signed off on the €6.1 billion package on 24 August, covering air and missile defense systems, missiles, ammunition, and radars. What remained was the rules governing how the money could be spent.

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This year's money is all committed

All €28.3 billion ($33 billion) allocated for Ukraine's defense from the loan in 2026 has now been agreed, Kubilius said.

Earlier slices went the same way. In July, the Commission released €3.47 billion ($4 billion) for drones, missiles, air defense, and Swedish Gripen fighter jets, the first 16 of which reach Ukraine in early 2027. On 8 September Brussels approved Ukraine's own application, filed five days earlier, to spend more than €2 billion ($2.3 billion) of loan money on Patriot interceptors.

What money cannot buy quickly

An approval is not a delivery. The 1,000 Patriot interceptors Ukraine has ordered arrive too late for this winter, which is why Kyiv asked allied governments to release rounds from their warehouses now and accept replacements later. A sum above €2 billion buys somewhere between roughly 190 and 580 interceptors, depending on the price Washington sets.

Russia, meanwhile, turns out about 100 of its deadliest missiles a month, 60 of them Iskander-Ms, and about 3,000 jet-powered drones in the same period. Ukraine intercepted one of the 57 ballistic missiles fired in the first eight days of August.

A member of Russia's parliament has threatened a fresh strike on Ukraine with the Oreshnik, Russia's intermediate-range ballistic missile. Andrei Kolesnik, of the State Duma's defense committee, says the "hour is not far" when Ukraine will "feel what Oreshnik is," casting the strike as revenge for a Ukrainian attack on the Russian city of Sochi, Russian state media reported, according to UNIAN.

Russia has already fired the Oreshnik at Ukraine three times, starting with Dnipro in November 2024, then the Lviv Oblast in January, a strike that landed roughly 70 kilometers from the Polish border and NATO's edge, and again near Bila Tserkva in Kyiv Oblast in May.

Kolesnik frames a strike as revenge

Kolesnik cast the coming strike as an answer to what he called Ukrainian terrorism against civilians. He pointed to a recent Ukrainian attack on Sochi, noting that Ukraine's forces used unmanned naval boats rather than drones.

"This is a terrorist attack in its purest form," he said, adding, "I think the hour is not far when the Ukrainian side will feel what Oreshnik is."

But what Kolesnik did not mention in his threats is that Russia hits Ukraine daily. Kyiv has been under a constant attack by jet-powered drones that trigger an air alert almost hourly since 27 August. Russia also fires presumably two ballistic missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital two times a week, inflicting $12 million in damages per strike and killing civilians. Meanwhile, other regions come under Russian attacks with the same intensity and suffer from Russian advances in the east and south of Ukraine.

The missile is a message more than a weapon

The Oreshnik carries six warheads and flies at around Mach 11. All three strikes were launched from the Kapustin Yar range in southern Russia, according to Ukraine's air force.

Russia has kept up that pressure by deploying a missile brigade to Belarus, positioning that would put more of Europe within the missile's reach.

Three of five Iranian oil tankers struck by the US military on 8 September were also involved in Russia’s oil trade and sanctions-evasion network, according to Ukraine’s presidential sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk.

Russia’s shadow fleet is a network of aging, often opaque-owned tankers used to transport Russian oil while evading Western sanctions, price caps, and restrictions. Moscow uses these vessels to continue generating income from global sources to finance its war against Ukraine.

Vlasiuk told Ukrinform that the vessels – Kaviz, Charminar, and Riesco – had carried Russian oil, visited Russian ports, or operated alongside vessels already under sanctions.

Russia’s shadow fleet overlaps with Iran’s

The three tankers illustrate how Russia and Iran’s efforts to move sanctioned oil can overlap. According to Vlasiuk, the networks share vessels, shipping managers, intermediaries, and routes.

Kaviz had called at Russia’s Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk ports and carried Russian oil. It was also linked to Fractal Marine DMCC, a company that became a major operator of vessels used to transport Russian oil after Western sanctions were imposed.

Charminar had visited several Russian ports, including Ust-Luga, Primorsk, Vysotsk, and St Petersburg. Vlasiuk said it was connected to a shipping network controlled by Iranian oil magnate Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, which handles both Iranian and Russian oil.

Riesco had also transported oil from both countries, including through ship-to-ship transfers involving other sanctioned tankers.

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The vessels were already sanctioned

Ukraine and the US had sanctioned all three tankers, while Kaviz was also under sanctions from the EU, UK, Canada, and Switzerland.

The US military struck five Iranian oil tankers on 8 September, according to Ukrinform, following Iran’s attempts to attack a US Navy vessel. The strikes brought renewed attention to the networks used to transport Iranian oil despite sanctions.

Russia rehearsed an operation to disable critical undersea cables near Norway’s Svalbard archipelago this spring, according to two Western officials cited by Reuters.

The exercise comes as Russia continues a broader hybrid campaign against European countries, using covert sabotage, cyberattacks, espionage, and surveillance of critical infrastructure alongside its war against Ukraine.

The operation involved Russia’s Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research, known as GUGI, which used deep-sea submersibles to simulate deploying technology designed to disable undersea cables.

British, Norwegian, and US forces tracked the Russian vessels and confronted them at sea, preventing them from completing the exercise, the officials told Reuters. The vessels eventually left the area.

No cables were damaged.

Russian forces rehearsed cable attacks

The operation took place near two 1,400-kilometer fiber-optic cables connecting Svalbard with mainland Norway. The cables carry satellite data from SvalSat, the world’s largest satellite ground station and part of NASA’s Near Space Network.

Britain and Norway disclosed in April that they had uncovered covert Russian activity in Arctic waters, but the details of the operation, including the technology involved and US participation, had not previously been reported.

Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik said the joint operation sent Russia a message that covert activity would be detected and face consequences.

The US and UK have sanctioned GUGI over its activities in European waters.

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Europe watches its undersea infrastructure

European governments have become increasingly concerned about Russian activity around telecommunications cables, power lines, and pipelines. Reuters reported that since 2023, vessels have increasingly been observed moving slowly over or near sensitive infrastructure, raising concerns that they could be mapping potential targets.

NATO has expanded monitoring in response. Its Baltic Sentry operation increases surveillance around critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, while the UK-led Nordic Warden monitors northern European waters.

Windward data cited by Reuters showed that vessels classified as “drifting” in the North Sea increased 52% in 2025, to 13,079. At least 11 subsea cables were damaged or cut in the Baltic between October 2023 and the end of 2025.

Western officials are increasingly concerned that Russia could use sabotage against European infrastructure to test NATO's response without immediately triggering open conflict. Some US intelligence officials have raised the possibility that Moscow could eventually test the alliance’s Article 5 mutual-defense commitment, according to Reuters.

Russia’s Defense Ministry did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied conducting sabotage operations in NATO countries.

The Svalbard exercise did not damage infrastructure, but it involved rehearsing capabilities that could be used against critical European infrastructure in a future conflict.

The very mechanisms that allow the census bureau to resist partisan interference are coming undone. And Congress is silent

When the constitutional architects of the United States got together, they came up with a crazy plan: “What if we count everyone in the country and allocate political representation that way?”

It was a radical act. Until then, censuses had been used by kings to levy taxes and conscript men into war. With the penning of article 1, section 2 of the US constitution, being counted ensured that states would get financial resources and political representatives. Congress was tasked with building the processes to anchor representation to the population. People wanted to be counted. And politicians wanted their people to be counted more.

danah boyd is the Geri Gay professor of communication at Cornell University and the author of Data Are Made, Not Found: A Story of Politics, Power, and the Civil Servants Who Saved the US Census

Census Bureau also considers race and ethnicity questions in overhaul that would have dramatic effect on voter maps

The Trump administration on Wednesday proposed changes to the US census intended to exclude immigrants without legal status in addition to other groups, with potentially significant effects on the allocation of federal resources and drawing of districts in the US House of Representatives.

In a proposed rule published in the Federal Register, the Census Bureau also announced it was considering changes to the data it collects about race and ethnicity, amid the Trump administration’s push to rid the government of diversity, equity and inclusion programs.

Russia plans to test-fire a new type of ballistic missile before the end of 2026, one built to fly farther than the Iskander missiles it now launches at Ukraine, according to Ukraine's military intelligence. Its deputy chief outlined the plan at a Ukraine-NATO meeting on 8 September, ZN reported.

A longer-range missile would erode the relative safety of western Ukraine, where the routes carrying Western aid run beyond the front, and stretch air defenses already struggling against ballistic strikes.

A longer reach into western Ukraine

Russia plans final tests of a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 kilometers, or about 500 miles, by year's end, Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR), told the Ukraine-NATO Interparliamentary Council, citing the agency's own assessments. Russian forces may try to hit targets in western Ukraine during those tests, he said.

The deputy chief noted that Moscow is raising both the output and the range of its ballistic missiles to intensify strikes and push Ukraine into a social and economic crisis. He urged partners to tighten sanctions until Russia loses access to the foreign components in its long-range weapons.

Russia's modernized 9M723-2, also called the Iskander-1000, reaches up to 550 km, HUR says, and the older 9M723-1 covers 390 km. An 800-km weapon would carry strikes well past the front.

The missile Russia already fields

Russia already fields a longer-range Iskander variant. This summer, its forces first fired the modernized 9M723-2—part of the Bora-M system—in a combined missile strike on Kyiv. A bigger engine and a larger launcher gave that missile its extended reach, HUR said. Ballistic missiles are the hardest of Russia's strikes for Ukraine to stop, and Moscow has poured them out in recent months, running its plants above quota and firing them in larger salvos.

Losing more soldiers than it signs up

Russia is waging a war of attrition despite heavy losses and has not given up on destroying Ukrainian statehood, Skibitskyi said. Skibitskyi put Russia's August losses at 43,000 soldiers against 39,000 recruited. Russia has struggled to fill its ranks for months. Russia's General Staff sees intensified mobilization as the only way to reach its main goals—fully occupying the Ukrainian Donbas and seizing the strategic initiative—he explained.

The Kremlin plans to mobilize about 600,000 people across 2026 and 2027, half of them by the end of this year, he said. Russia will also try to close the Black Sea to Ukraine and to drag Belarus into the war and into hybrid operations against NATO, he added, though HUR sees no signs of Russian strike groupings forming there yet.

Each new kilometer of range puts more of Ukraine within reach from deep inside Russia, without moving a launcher closer to the border.

Ukraine is contracting about 1,000 missiles for its American-made Patriot air defense systems, but most arrive only in later years, so at the Ramstein meeting of its allies it asked for interceptors out of their existing stocks before winter, the Defense Ministry said. Nine governments announced new contributions there, and Germany was the only one to commit interceptors from its own stocks. The Ramstein format meeting is the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of roughly 50 countries that coordinates weapons for Ukraine, named after the US air base in Germany where it first met in 2022.

Ukraine contracts for later, asks for stock now

Ukraine's Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara told partners the country is signing for roughly 1,000 Patriot missiles, whose PAC-3 version is the only round in its arsenal that reliably stops Russian ballistic missiles, paid for with partner support and the European Union's credit line. Those deliveries take time. So Ukraine asked allies to release missiles from their warehouses now and take the improved contracted rounds later. It made the same case for air-to-air missiles and shoulder-fired launchers, which crews use against cruise missiles and, as a stopgap, against the jet-powered Shahed attack drones, the Iranian-designed weapons Russia now flies at Ukrainian cities by day.

The European Commission cleared the loan money for interceptors days earlier. How many rounds it buys depends on the price Washington sets.

What partners pledged

The ministry listed the results by country. 

• Germany promised interceptors for Patriot systems and for F-16 fighter jets, plus drone purchases. 

• The United Kingdom put up £100 million ($135 million) through PURL, short for the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, the NATO mechanism that lets allied and partner governments buy US-made arms for Ukraine. London added another 95,000 drones by the end of the year and tens of thousands of extended-range artillery shells financed by other countries.

• The Netherlands pledged $300 million for the Drone Line, Ukraine's program that holds a drone-strike zone over the front, and 300 counter-drone missiles.

• Estonia committed to keep its support at at least 0.25% of its economic output in 2027.

• Norway confirmed a previously announced $200 million for Patriot missiles. 

• Spain gave €2 million ($2.3 million) for fuel through NATO's procurement agency, plus air-defense missiles and artillery ammunition. 

• Lithuania put $10 million into PURL.

• Poland prepared a €50 million ($58 million) package including air-defense equipment.

• Sweden pledged $28 million, half of it to PURL.

It was the coalition's 36th session, co-chaired online by Germany and the United Kingdom according to the German Defense Ministry's invitation, and the first for Khmara and for Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi, the general who took over Ukraine's army in July.

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Germany opens its own warehouse

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said he decided, alongside the NATO summit, to give Ukraine urgently needed PAC-2 interceptors, an older Patriot round, from the stocks of the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, before winter. Russia has announced it will attack Ukraine's energy system. He told the others to check their reserves and do the same.

Germany will also step up deliveries of AIM-9 air-to-air missiles from the same stocks, the US-made rounds fighter jets fire at incoming drones and missiles, and keep delivering IRIS-T air defense systems, including serially produced guided missiles for them. Ukraine intends to order several thousand more IRIS-T rounds using the EU loan.

The money and the deadline

Allies allocated more than $10 billion over the past year for American weapons through PURL and the US foreign military sales program, $3.5 billion of it under the EU loan, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said. Khmara said partners promised €70 billion ($81 billion) this year, while Ukraine sees €62 billion, and the missing €8 billion is needed to meet that pledge, with the total defense deficit at €23 billion ($27 billion), according to the ministry's readout. He asked for those decisions by November. A day earlier, Ukraine handed the alliance a list of priority air- and missile-defense needs, the Defense Ministry reported.

Two timelines at the table

Elbridge Colby, the US under secretary of war for policy and the Pentagon's top policy official, told the group his department cannot predict when the war ends, that Russia is rebuilding its forces and defense industry, and that Ukraine's needs will persist for months and years. Europeans already lead on conventional defense and provide most of the support, he said.

Russia is expanding its manpower too, and by Ukraine's estimate plans to mobilize about 300,000 more soldiers this year and the same in 2027, Khmara said, Radio Svoboda reported. He presented the war plan Ukrainian forces now operate under, and said their drone kill zone stops Russian advances and kills more than 30,000 Russian soldiers a month, by the military's own count.

The European Commission has approved Ukraine's request to buy US-made Patriot interceptor missiles with money from the European Union's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan, an EU official told Suspilne. Kyiv filed the application four days earlier and asked for more than €2 billion ($2.3 billion). The decision settles who pays, not when the missiles arrive.

Brussels signed off four days after the request

Ukraine submitted the application on 3 September under the Ukraine Support Loan program. The Commission said at the time it was working to clear it in the shortest possible period.

Kyiv asked for the money to buy interceptors, and it falls under the EU credit line for 2026 and 2027. That sum can buy anywhere from about 190 to 580 interceptors, depending on the price Washington sets.

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What the €90 billion covers

The European Council decided to create the loan in December 2025, and the Council of the EU finalized the financing mechanism in April 2026. Hungary's veto held the package up for months before it cleared, and Ukraine's parliament then accepted a wartime tax overhaul to unlock the first tranche.

About €30 billion ($35 billion) of the total goes to economic support and €60 billion ($70 billion) to military needs and defense capabilities. The EU raises the money by borrowing on international capital markets against guarantees from its own budget.

Why European money buys American missiles

The military half of the program funds arms purchases, Ukrainian and European defense industry in particular. It also allows purchases outside the bloc when European producers cannot supply enough of what Ukraine needs.

On 6 August the Commission confirmed Ukraine may use loan money for interceptors, noting that Kyiv defines its own requirements and files the applications. That opened the door to non-European weapons. Nothing in Ukraine's inventory stops Russian ballistic missiles without Patriot interceptors, as Russia showed in August by hitting Kyiv and the Boryspil airport hub twice inside a day.

Ukraine's interceptor arithmetic

Zelenskyy has said Ukraine agreed with the US on monthly interceptor deliveries, while calling the volumes short of what the country needs. He put the winter requirement at no less than about 5% of American output of these missiles.

A shortage of allied Patriot missiles, combined with heavier Russian strikes, made July the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since April 2022, according to UN figures.

Russia has deployed units of its 101st Missile Brigade to Belarus, a formation equipped with the Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko, Ukrinform reports.

Russia has been ramping up missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks, including increasingly frequent strikes on Kyiv from the north, launched from Russian territory close to Belarus. Russia used Belarusian territory to launch its 2022 invasion of northern Ukraine, while Belarus is now allowing Russia to use its territory to support drone attacks. The latest deployment could give Moscow another launchpad for strikes deeper into Ukraine or potentially against targets in Europe.

Belarus not preparing to enter war, but threat remains

Ivashchenko said in an interview with Ukrinform that Ukraine currently assesses the military threat from Belarus as low and sees no signs that Belarus is preparing to directly enter the war.

But he said Kyiv is concerned by the growing Russian military presence in Belarus and the role Belarusian territory is playing in Russian attacks on Ukraine.

“Units of the 101st Missile Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, which are equipped with the Oreshnik missile system, are also deployed on the territory of Belarus,” Ivashchenko told Ukrinform.

The Oreshnik is a Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile system that Moscow has presented as a new weapon capable of striking targets deep inside Europe. Russia first used an Oreshnik missile against Ukraine in November 2024, striking the city of Dnipro.

Oreshnik has been stationed in Belarus

Russia has maintained Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus since at least December 2025, when Belarusian leader Aliaksandr Lukashenka said an Oreshnik system had been placed on combat duty there as part of expanded military cooperation with Moscow.

The system is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, although Russia has used Oreshnik against Ukraine in a non-nuclear strike. Ukrainian intelligence has previously said the deployment is aimed in part at increasing pressure on Europe and NATO by shortening the missile's flight time to European targets.

The Oreshnik systems in Belarus remain under Russian control rather than Belarusian command, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

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Belarus allows Russia to use its territory to guide drone strikes

Ivashchenko also said Belarus has allowed Russia to deploy radio-signal repeaters that help guide Russian Shahed-type attack drones toward Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure targets.

“If Belarus did not give such permission, this indicates that Minsk no longer controls Russia’s activities on its own territory,” he said, according to Ukrinform.

The use of Belarusian territory to support Russian attacks has stopped short of Belarusian forces directly entering the war, but it demonstrates Minsk's growing role in enabling Russia's military operations. 

That cooperation makes the prospect of Russia using Belarusian territory for additional military capabilities less remote, particularly as Moscow expands its forces and intensifies attacks on Kyiv from the northern direction.

Renewed concern over a northern Russian offensive

The comments come as Russian strikes on Kyiv have intensified in recent weeks, while Ukrainian officials have increasingly warned about the possibility of another Russian offensive from the north toward Kyiv and Chernihiv.

There is no reported Russian ground offensive from Belarus underway. But the northern direction remains a major concern for Ukraine because of the precedent set in 2022, when Russian forces crossed from Belarus and advanced toward Kyiv before withdrawing in early April.

For now, Ivashchenko assesses the military threat from Belarus as low. The deployment of Russian missile forces nevertheless adds another significant Russian weapons capability to Belarus, while leaving open questions about how Moscow could use the territory in a future escalation.

After a months-long pause, US President Donald Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner opened their first round of peace talks in Kyiv to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced their visit and talks on Telegram on 6 September. A day earlier, they visited Moscow and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin there. Ukraine came in with prepared proposals and a demand for security guarantees. Witkoff called the discussion substantive, and the British, French, and German national security advisers joined the later rounds. Despite their previous multiple visits to Moscow, this was their first-ever visit to Kyiv.

Zelenskyy came with a written package and one demand

Zelenskyy gathered his negotiating team before the meeting and wrote on Telegram that Ukraine was ready to talk. 

"Peace is needed. Security guarantees are needed. A dignified character of the post-war peace is needed. Our proposals have been prepared," he said, adding that it was important to work in a coordinated, substantive, and realistic way.

The preparatory meeting brought together head of the President's Office Kyrylo Budanov, Foreign Intelligence Service head Rustem Umierov, Servant of the People faction leader David Arakhamia, and First Deputy Head of the President's Office Serhii Kyslytsia—Ukraine's likely negotiating team.

The post announcing the start of the talks, published shortly after 2 p.m., carried video of Zelenskyy greeting the two Americans. He also told reporters the day would run in stages: one session with the US side, then another with the European advisers.  After the first part, Zelenskyy thanked American and European partners. 

The presidential website had published no report on the talks by the time this article went out.

Ending the fighting is not the goal, the envoys said

Witkoff called the talks substantive and said the US team was ready to continue working, TSN reported. He said Washington was looking for openings on external security issues and coordinating closely with Germany, France, and the UK.

Kushner said the goal was not only to end the fighting but to create conditions for a lasting peace. He called it “a very, very hard and complex problem,” but “a very worthy problem of solving,” and said a lasting peace should allow Ukraine to turn its wartime “bravery and ingenuity and strength” toward rebuilding the country.

Kushner also said Trump is determined to end the war and then shift toward investment and economic cooperation, which he argued could bring the countries closer and open new opportunities for Ukraine and Europe. He added that the talks continue between visits, with the US side speaking almost daily with the four Ukrainian negotiators, whom he named only by their first names.

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The Europeans joined the later rounds

Zelenskyy's spokesman Serhii Nykyforov said the first round with Witkoff and Kushner had finished, and that a second, expanded round with the national security advisers of the UK, France, and Germany would follow after a short break. A source familiar with the matter told Reuters the three advisers were in Kyiv on Sunday, without specifying which sessions they would attend.

A third round then opened, public broadcaster Suspilne reported. Witkoff described the discussion as substantive, concrete, and important shortly before it started.

Moscow, the day before

Witkoff and Kushner held three hours of talks with Putin in Moscow on 5 September. Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov stated the meeting was substantive, very frank, and constructive, and said Putin told them Russia would achieve its war aims and that the war's so-called "root causes" must be removed—Kremlin shorthand for Ukraine abandoning NATO membership and disarming, which Kyiv rejects.

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A White House representative told Radio Svoboda that the sides discussed concrete plans for next steps, to be announced in the coming weeks. Bloomberg reported that sources close to the Kremlin said Putin is ready to end the war only on his own terms, with Moscow's demands hardening. Axios reported that a US Treasury official responsible for sanctions policy joined the trip but did not attend the Putin meeting, alongside State Department and National Security Council staff.

Trump said on 4 September that Witkoff and Kushner were carrying a proposal to both Moscow and Kyiv, which he described as fresh, without giving details.

How the envoys reached Kyiv

Umierov published video this morning showing Budanov, Umierov, Arakhamia, and Kyslytsia welcoming Witkoff and Kushner at Kyiv’s railway station as the US envoys arrived for talks.

Ukraine had prepared to receive the envoys by air, but Russian strikes made that impossible, Zelenskyy said. He met them instead on Sofiivska Square before the delegation went inside St Sophia's Cathedral. In a 4 September address, Zelenskyy said Ukraine would keep Russian airspace safe for the envoys’ travel and demanded Moscow do the same.

A pause that covered two capitals

Ukraine ordered a three-day halt to strikes on Moscow around the visit, and the Kremlin claimed it would pause strikes on Kyiv until Monday. Nothing else stopped. Ukraine logged impacts at 11 sites across the country while the American delegation was in the Russian capital. Ukraine's 6 September strike hit the Ryazan oil refinery and set a core unit on fire, about 470 km from Ukraine.

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Twenty months of rounds without a deal

Trump made ending Russia’s war a priority after taking office in January 2025, but US-mediated talks produced little and later stalled during the US-Israeli war against Iran. Washington said in early August it intended to step up the effort, and Russian attacks intensifying pushed a planned August visit to Kyiv back.

The visit was confirmed on 4 September, after two weeks of heavy Russian attacks on Kyiv, including a drone strike on the headquarters of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and an earlier six-day bombardment. Previous talks also left Kyiv and Moscow far apart over Donbas, where Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from fortified cities still under Kyiv’s control.

Russia attacked Ukraine from 18:00 on 5 September and through the night into 6 September with 108 strike drones and S8000 Banderol cruise missiles, Ukraine's Air Force reported. The assault ran while US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were finishing three hours of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. They left the Russian capital after midnight and were expected in Kyiv on 6 September, again carrying a US proposal to end the war. Ukraine's own offer of a four-day pause in the fighting went unmatched by Russia.

The attack was still running in the morning

By 09:30 air defenses had downed or suppressed 82 Shahed-type, Gerbera, and other drones, along with six Banderol missiles. The military logged impacts at 11 locations and falling debris at seven more, and warned that Russian drones were still in Ukraine's airspace.

Over the previous day, Russian strikes killed seven people and injured 57 across Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk oblasts, according to oblast administration figures published on the morning of 6 September. Kharkiv Oblast lost four people, three of them one family in Chuhuiv. Zaporizhzhia Oblast reported one death, 25 injured, and 886 strikes on 54 settlements.

Three hours in the Kremlin

Witkoff and Kushner met Putin on 5 September and left the Kremlin close to midnight. Putin opened by telling them he had "full trust" in the US side, Axios reported, and Washington's goal is to restart direct Russian-Ukrainian talks that stopped six months ago. Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov called the discussion "substantive, constructive, exceptionally candid," ABC News reported, and stated the envoys had promised to carry Putin's own assessments into their meetings in Kyiv. Ushakov also repeated that Russia will achieve its goals and that the war's "root causes" must be removed — the Kremlin's shorthand for barring Ukraine from NATO and cutting down its army.

A White House official told RFE/RL that the sides discussed "concrete plans" for next steps, to be announced in the coming weeks. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who sat in on the talks, called the Moscow trip an important peacemaking visit, Al Jazeera reported. The Kyiv leg would be the envoys' first trip to Ukraine since taking over the US effort; it was set for August and postponed as Russian strikes intensified.

Ukrainian Defense Forces units have been ordered to temporarily observe a ceasefire along the line of contact from 00:00 on 5 September through 23:59 on 8 September, Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing sources in several military brigades and a senior security official.

The order comes as US President Donald Trump’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to visit Moscow and Kyiv this weekend for talks aimed at ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.

According to Ukrainska Pravda’s sources, Ukrainian units operating across the front have received instructions to observe the temporary “silence regime” during the four-day period.

An air raid alert was issued in Kyiv at 00:00 on 5 September just as the temporary ceasefire was due to take effect, with Russian drones reported over Kyiv and Kharkiv oblasts.

Pause coincides with US envoys’ visits

Witkoff and Kushner are expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 5 September before traveling to Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 6 September.

Their visit comes after months of stalled negotiations. US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine froze in February following the outbreak of war between the US, Israel and Iran, while subsequent contacts between US, Russian and Ukrainian officials have failed to produce a breakthrough.

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Witkoff and Kushner to visit Kyiv and Moscow to revive peace talks as Russia ramps up attacks across Ukraine

Zelenskyy said on 4 September that Ukraine would ensure conditions for the US envoys’ safe travel and called for Russia to reciprocate by refraining from strikes during the period needed for the meetings and related logistics.

The reported Ukrainian order would extend the pause beyond the envoys’ visits, covering 5–8 September.

Russia has continued its intensive drone campaign against Ukrainian cities even as diplomatic contacts have resumed. Kyiv remains skeptical of Moscow’s willingness to accept a genuine ceasefire, with Ukrainian officials warning that Russia may use negotiations to buy time while continuing its military campaign.

US President Donald Trump’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Moscow and Kyiv this weekend for talks aimed at restarting efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, Axios reported, citing US officials.

The planned trip comes as Washington seeks to revive negotiations that stalled earlier this year and as Russia continues its military campaign against Ukraine. Russia has dramatically stepped up its attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks, launching increasingly large waves of drones and missiles against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Moscow talks Saturday, Kyiv on Sunday

Witkoff and Kushner are expected to travel to Moscow on Friday, 4 September, and meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, 5 September, Axios reported.

They are then scheduled to travel to Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday, 6 September. Zelenskyy confirmed the planned meetings on 4 September.

The Kyiv visit would be the first by Witkoff and Kushner since Trump returned to the White House. The two envoys have traveled to Moscow several times to meet Putin but have not previously visited Kyiv during the current Trump administration.

Ukrainian and US officials have discussed a Kyiv visit for several months, but it has reportedly been postponed multiple times for various reasons.

Zelenskyy confirms visit, calls for reciprocal pause in strikes

Zelenskyy said Ukraine is preparing for the envoys’ visit and will ensure the necessary conditions for their safe arrival.

He said Ukraine would refrain from airstrikes against Russia for the period required for the talks and related logistics, and called on Moscow to provide a reciprocal pause in its air attacks.

“We care specifically about them, not Russia,” Zelenskyy said, adding that Kyiv expects Russia to “mirror” the pause.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine wants the visit and negotiations to be as constructive and substantive as possible, while acknowledging that the outcome will depend on the proposals Witkoff and Kushner bring and Russia’s response to them.

Talks stalled earlier this year

The Trump administration’s mediation between Russia and Ukraine was effectively frozen in February after the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Witkoff and Kushner have continued holding separate discussions with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in the months since, but the talks have produced little significant progress.

The renewed push comes as Washington has again sought a path toward direct negotiations. CIA Director John Ratcliffe also recently traveled to Moscow and discussed the possibility of restarting diplomatic efforts, including a potential Trump-Putin-Zelenskyy summit.

Kyiv remains skeptical of Moscow’s intentions

The diplomatic effort comes alongside continued Russian attacks and an increasingly escalatory military situation.

Kyiv has faced near-constant large-scale drone attacks in recent weeks, while Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia may be preparing further military escalation. Axios reported that Ukrainian officials remain highly skeptical of Putin’s intentions and believe Russia could be preparing a major escalation in the war.

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Russian drone strikes SBU headquarters in central Kyiv. Zelenskyy says “geography” of Ukraine’s response is set

At the same time, Ukrainian officials have continued to argue that negotiations should not be abandoned.

Kyrylo Budanov, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff and former military intelligence chief, told The New York Times that US-mediated talks could resume in September. He said, however, that conditions for a ceasefire were unlikely to emerge before spring 2027.

Budanov has argued that Ukraine must keep diplomatic channels open even while fighting continues, saying that “the war cannot be eternal.”

The planned meetings will therefore take place against a backdrop of continued battlefield fighting and increased air attacks, with major disagreements still unresolved between Kyiv and Moscow.

Ukrainian drones set fire to two fuel depots around Sochi and hit a Russian air defense position overnight on 4 September, according to monitoring channels. They also reported that drones struck an explosives factory and a petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan the same night, more than a thousand kilometers from Ukraine. Russian officials acknowledged the depot fire and said nothing about the air defense site.

Two depots burned behind their anti-drone screens

Astra's OSINT analysts geolocated the fires to the Rosneft-Kubannefteprodukt depot in Sochi's Adler district and to the Lukoil-Yugneftprodukt depot on the federal territory of Sirius. Sochi mayor Andrei Proshunin confirmed a fire at a depot. The regional operational headquarters claimed there were no casualties. Sochi is a Russian resort city on the eastern Black Sea coast, about 600 km from the frontline in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian OSINT channel Cyberboroshno identified one of the hit sites as the BATO aviation fuel terminal, which fuels aircraft at airports across Krasnodar Krai. Every tank there stood behind purpose-built protective structures, Militarnyi reported, and the Lukoil site holds 12 tanks with a combined volume of about 8,400 m³. The burning depot sits roughly 100 meters from Sochi international airport, Russia's fifth-busiest by passenger traffic in 2024, the Russian outlet Agentstvo found.

Panoramic imagery from this year shows anti-drone netting around the tanks at both depots. Two days before the strikes, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak claimed Russian refineries were better protected than those in the UAE, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said their protection level was now completely different.

An air defense position caught fire near the Abkhazia border

Astra analyzed eyewitness footage and placed a detonation and fire at a launch position near the settlement of Sirius, by the Psou river on the Abkhazia border, where an S-300 or S-400 system is based. The Ukrainian monitoring channels Exilenova+ and Supernova+ said drones struck the air defenses directly. Russia's Defense Ministry and local authorities reported nothing about it.

Drones had tried the same area in May. A Ukrainian sea drone struck the Russian supply vessel Nefrit at Sochi port the previous day.

Explosives and petrochemicals hit in Bashkortostan

Drones reached Sterlitamak on the morning of 4 September, hitting the Avangard plant and the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant, footage published by Supernova+ shows. Residents reported a series of explosions, and one man said on video that about a dozen drones had already flown toward the petrochemical works. The frames show Ukrainian FP-1 strike drones. 

 Russia's Defense Ministry claimed it downed 490 drones overnight across several regions, occupied Crimea, and the Black Sea.

On 1 September 2026, Latvia banned imports of Russian- and Belarusian-made books, clothing, toys, and other consumer goods, including shipments routed through third countries, Latvian Public Media reported.

The restricted goods were worth approximately €12.5 million ($14.5 million) in 2025, or 6.5% of Latvia’s remaining imports from the two countries. Although modest economically, the measure goes beyond EU-wide sanctions and advances Riga’s effort to deny Moscow and Minsk revenue during Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The restrictions cover the following:

• Books, newspapers, and other printed material
• Clothing, textiles, footwear, and headwear
• Toys, games, and sporting equipment.

Latvia’s Cabinet approved the final product list on 25 August following a Foreign Ministry proposal, completing restrictions parliament authorized on 23 July.

The ban applies regardless of whether the products arrive directly or through another country. Russian- and Belarusian-made goods may still transit Latvia on their way to other EU markets, Meduza reported.

Food and beverages are not covered. The restrictions are scheduled to remain in force until 1 July 2027 and will be reviewed annually.

The Foreign Ministry said the measure is also intended to limit the entry of Russian propaganda material. The targeted products accounted for only 0.05% of Latvia’s total imports in 2025, according to Euronews.

How Latvia has been cutting off trade with Russia and Belarus

Latvia’s combined imports from Russia and Belarus have already fallen by 91%, from €2.13 billion ($2.47 billion) in 2022 to €193 million ($224 million) in 2025, according to Latvian Public Media. Much of that decline followed the country’s departure from Russian energy supplies and the Baltic states’ disconnection from the Russian and Belarusian electricity grids.

The latest prohibition blocks consumer goods that Brussels has not collectively banned.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs previously pledged to eliminate the country’s remaining commercial links with Russia and Belarus, although pharmaceutical exporters were expected to remain exempt.

In August, Latvia also resumed publishing a monthly register of businesses trading with either country, naming 171 companies. Inclusion on the list does not itself indicate a sanctions violation.

Belarus is fitting a new base near its border with Ukraine to receive heavy military hardware by rail, according to Radio Svaboda, the Belarus service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. On paper it is a training ground—but the leaked design documents describe a site built to unload trainloads of vehicles. The work is moving ahead even as Belarusian commanders have begun saying there is no real threat from the West.

Belarus keeps adding permanent military infrastructure on its Ukrainian frontier even as its own commanders now drop the Western-threat case behind it.

A rail line sized for military trains

Construction is under way near the village of Yakimaŭka in Homiel Oblast, the part of Belarus that runs along Ukraine's northern edge. Radio Svaboda reported that the new rail infrastructure is designed to receive military trains. The finding rests on project documents obtained by a community of Belarusian railway workers.

The papers describe a separate access track sized for up to 60 railcars and a cargo platform with a ramp for unloading wheeled and tracked vehicles. A state military-design institute, Vaenpraekt, is listed as the client.

A base for a new assault brigade

The papers pin the range only to Homiel Oblast, but Radio Svaboda links it to a wider military complex built near Homiel since late 2023. That complex is the planned home of the 37th separate air-assault brigade of Belarus's Special Operations Forces. Cadastral maps split it into an eastern "military town" and a western "training-tactical field."

Alyaksandr Lukashenka's government created the brigade in 2025 to strengthen the country's southern sector, ostensibly against a threat from Ukraine. Part of the military town was reported finished in June 2026, and crews have since moved to the rail tracks.

Belarus drops its own threat talk

For months, Belarusian officials have claimed the West was preparing to attack. In June 2026, the Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktar Khrenin pressed the line at a meeting of defense ministers from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Moscow, and again at an "anti-fascist congress" in Minsk, where he accused Europeans of a "Nazi mentality."

Khrenin told Lukashenka the situation around Belarus was calm, with no sign that neighbors were preparing to act. On 16 August, the commander of Belarus's air force and air defense, Andrei Lukyanovich, said there was no external threat and that operational contacts with Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland were ongoing.

Belarus is building railway infrastructure capable of receiving military trains near the village of Yakimauka in Homiel Oblast, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Project documentation obtained by the Belarusian Association of Railway Workers confirms that separate railway infrastructure is being designed for a facility officially called "Construction of a training ground in Homiel Oblast," with the Military Design Institute named as the client.

Minsk backed Russia's aggression against Ukraine and opened its military infrastructure and airspace to the Russian army for the war and for strikes on Ukrainian cities. The first ballistic missiles in 2022 to Kyiv Oblast were launched from the territory of Belarus, killing dozens of civilians.

The site under construction lies about 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, and Belarus's three existing air assault brigades sit in Vitsebsk, Brest, and Maryina Horka, none of them on the southern frontier.

The documents specify 60 wagons

The project includes a separate access track designed for up to 60 wagons and a freight platform with a ramp for unloading wheeled and tracked equipment, according to the documentation. The exact location of the new training ground is not yet known.

A new base against "threats from Ukraine"

Large-scale construction of a military base has been underway near Homiel since late 2023, and the 37th Separate Air Assault Brigade of Belarus's Special Operations Forces is likely to be deployed there. Part of the new military town was finished in June 2026, and rail construction continues.

Belarus has formed one battalion of the brigade and plans a second this year, along with combat support, artillery, air defense, and reconnaissance units, Special Operations Forces commander Colonel Aliaksandr Iliukevich said, according to Dzerkalo Tyzhnia.

The government of Alexander Lukashenka established this brigade to “strengthen the southern sector,” ostensibly to counter threats from Ukraine. The eastern part of the new facility is designated on Belarusian state cadastral maps as a “military camp,” while the western section is marked as a “training and tactical field.”

Ukraine celebrated 35 years of independence on 24 August, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the day with an address listing what the invasion has cost Russia, published by the President's Office. He said Putin is mortal and out of time to understand Ukraine, and said Ukraine will not hand over Donbas or save the Kremlin half a million soldiers. He also asked partners for sanctions and weapons strong enough to force an end to the war.

Russia has been invading Ukraine since 2014 and fighting a full-scale war on it since 2022, and Ukraine now supplies a growing share of the missiles and drones it fights back with, while the air defense shielding its cities still hangs on decisions taken in Washington and European capitals—which is what makes a holiday speech a statement of what Kyiv will not trade and what it needs built or delivered next.

The losses he read back to Moscow

President Zelenskyy turned from his own citizens to Russia partway through the speech. 

"You wanted to take all our Ukraine, all our land; instead, you lost your oil refineries, your fleet, your profits, your entire generation that you sent into the meat grinder," he said. 

A country that wanted Ukraine erased from the map, he added, is now absent from the international agenda of the future civilization.

He set Moscow's self-image against its filling stations. 

"For 27 years, the head of Russia has talked about greatness, while Russia is standing in lines for gasoline," Zelenskyy said. 

Moscow and St. Petersburg brought back gasoline rationing this month, and Rosneft capped fills at every station in the country.

On the Russian leader he was blunt. 

"Putin hopes that we are tired. But we know that he is mortal," he said, adding that Putin never understood Ukraine and now will not have the time to.

A fifth Independence Day at war

Before the holiday, Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv and its main airport hub twice in 24 hours. A solution to Russian ballistic terror must be found, Zelenskyy said, and that gamble must not pay off. 

Russia does not want peace, it wants mobilization, the president said. Ukraine will not let Moscow seize the initiative or convince Europe that surrendering Donbas ends the war. Russia keeps pushing back the dates for taking all of Donetsk Oblast and will keep pushing them back, he said.

The president called Ukraine's defense industry a giant that forges independence around the clock, and demanded more from it. Mid-range strikes cut Russian logistics and long-range weapons cut Russian profits, he said, listing Moscow, Tuapse, Tula, Ryazan, Olenya, and Omsk among the places already hit. 

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Ukraine's home-built Flamingo cruise missiles should stop being a rare species and arrive en masse: "They must 'winter' in Russia," Zelenskyy noted. 

Previously, Flamingos have hit defense plants more than 1,000 km from the border, though they still appear in strikes in small numbers.

"China should no longer remain silent"

Ukraine is not asking anyone to fight for it, the president said — only for everything needed to stop the war before Putin starts the next one. He wants sanctions that make Russians howl and Moscow at a negotiating table, and said Washington has lost its illusions about Russian intentions. Europe must be Europe, he said: united, ambitious, brave. 

"China should no longer remain silent," he added, saying Beijing must cool the ardor of someone who puts on a sailor's uniform and cap and talks about a nuclear strike—a description that fits Putin.

Latvia has resumed publishing monthly lists of locally registered companies trading goods with Russia or Belarus after a nearly three-year pause, public broadcaster LSM reported on 20 August 2026.

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs has pledged to sever its remaining economic ties with Russia and Belarus, but substantial trade remains legal because EU sanctions are not a full embargo. The monthly register makes that commerce visible by identifying the companies involved.

The Central Statistical Bureau, Latvia's national statistics agency, published the names of 171 companies for July. A subsequent analysis by Latvian news agency LETA found that more than two-thirds operated in logistics, food and agriculture, or medicine.

The disclosure is, in effect, a form of naming and shaming. Yet the statistics bureau stopped publishing a similar list in autumn 2023 because names without transaction details could not support objective conclusions. The register is not a sanctions blacklist, and inclusion does not indicate a sanctions violation.

Under an amendment adopted on 18 June 2026, Latvia’s tax authority must send the data to the statistics bureau each month. The change also lifted tax-confidentiality rules that had kept company names private, LSM reported.

The explanatory note accompanying the law said disclosure was intended to support Ukraine. The amendment's authors argued that Latvian companies should not contribute to Russian and Belarusian state revenues while Russia’s invasion continues, according to LSM.

Latvia seeks to cut its remaining trade

The Prime Minister said in June that Latvia must sever its remaining economic ties with Russia and Belarus. However, he indicated that pharmaceutical exporters would likely be exempted on national-security grounds.

Latvia’s exports to Russia and Belarus each fell only about 7% in 2025, while imports from Russia plunged by more than two-thirds, according to official data cited by Euromaidan Press.

EU sanctions do not prohibit all trade

The EU renewed its economic sanctions on Russia through July 2027, preserving restrictions on trade, finance, and energy, as well as on goods and technology with both civilian and military uses, Euromaidan Press reported in June.

The Council of the EU says its trade restrictions exclude health, pharmaceutical, food, and agricultural products to avoid harming Russian civilians. Those exclusions allow EU companies to continue lawful trade with Russia even while other parts of its economy remain under sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) on July 7 published what it claimed was a Russian army order to increase its military presence at a base in Armenia, two days after HUR's warning of such a move was denied by Yerevan.

HUR first made the claim on July 5, saying Russia was increasing its forces at the Gyumri base to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and "destabilize the global security situation."

Armenia's Foreign Ministry denied the claim on the same day.

In a post on social media on July 7, HUR published a document which it said was a "order from the commander of the troops of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces on the 'replenishment' of the Russian military base in Armenia."

"The telegram lists a list of measures for the urgent “replenishment” of the units of the Russian unit by selecting personnel from among the servicemen of the 8th, 18th, 49th and 58th combined arms armies of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces," HUR said.

The news comes amid a major deterioration in Russian-Azerbaijani relations after a deadly June 27 operation in Russia's Yekaterinburg, where Russian security forces killed two Azerbaijani nationals and injured several others in a raid linked to a 2001 murder case.

Armenia has had a historically close relationship with Russia but the relations between Yerevan and Moscow have recently deteriorated.

Russia's leverage over both Baku and Yerevan has diminished dramatically since Azerbaijani troops captured Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-controlled region in Azerbaijan, in 2023.

Russian peacekeepers later withdraw from the region, and now Baku and Yerevan are negotiating a permanent peace deal.

Armenia, which has lambasted Moscow for failing to help it during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is drifting closer to the West.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has suspended the country's membership in a Russian-led military alliance and announced plans to join the European Union. Recently there has also been a crackdown on the pro-Russian opposition in Armenia.

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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Russian state-funded propaganda media outlet Sputnik will cease operations in Azerbaijan, Russia Today media group CEO Dmitry Kiselyov said on July 3, according to the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

"We regret to say that, as of today, the conditions for Sputnik Azerbaijan to continue its activities in this country are not in place," Kiselyov said.

The move comes amid a major deterioration in Russian-Azerbaijani relations.

Kiselyov's comments followed the detention of several Sputnik Azerbaijan employees by Azerbaijani police on June 30. Authorities said two of the detainees were operatives of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), prompting a formal protest from Moscow.

Kiselyov called the charges "far-fetched," saying the staff had worked to "develop cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia." He added that legal action would be taken to defend them.

Sputnik, a key pillar of the Kremlin's global propaganda network, has long been accused by Western governments and media watchdogs of spreading disinformation and pro-Russian narratives.

These developments follow a deadly June 27 operation in Russia's Yekaterinburg, where Russian security forces killed two Azerbaijani nationals and injured several others in a raid linked to a 2001 murder case.

On June 28, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry issued a rare public rebuke, calling the operation "ethnically motivated" and part of a "systematic pattern" of unlawful treatment of Azerbaijani nationals in Russia.

The diplomatic rupture deepened further after Azerbaijani authorities arrested eight Russian citizens the next day, presenting them in court handcuffed and visibly injured. They were accused of participating in organized crime, cyberattacks, and drug smuggling from Iran.

The closure of Sputnik's bureau marks a new low in relations between the two former Soviet states, which have seen escalating tensions despite longstanding ties.

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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg denied on July 1 that he agreed to "work on" halting Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia, contradicting Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko's claim.

Speaking at a state event on Belarus's Independence Day, Lukashenko said he relayed Russian President Vladimir Putin's position to Kellogg during their June 21 meeting in Minsk.

According to Lukashenko, the Russian president is willing to consider a ceasefire in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces stop conducting drone strikes on Russian territory.

"I conveyed this position to the Americans," Lukashenko said on July 1. "We will work on it, said (the U.S. special envoy), in this direction."

Kellogg pushed back on the claim, writing on X that the quote was "taken out of context" and misrepresented the substance of their talks.

"At no point did I make comments related to Ukraine's prosecution of the war outside of a total ceasefire," he said. "In my conversation with Lukashenko, we discussed a full and unconditional ceasefire."

The June meeting between Kellogg and Lukashenko marked the highest-level U.S. visit to Belarus since former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's 2020 trip. Belarusian state media widely portrayed Kellogg's visit as a sign of thawing relations.

Shortly after the talks, Belarus released opposition leader and political prisoner Siarhei Tsikhanouski, who had been jailed since the 2020 presidential election.

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994 and remains a key ally of the Kremlin. His regime has allowed Russian troops and equipment to use Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Military aid delays will ‘encourage Russia to continue war,’ Ukraine tells US envoy

Ukraine warned that “any delay or hesitation in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities will only encourage Russia to continue war and terror, rather than pursue peace.”

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Armenian authorities should "seriously" consider banning the broadcast of Russian television channels in Armenia, Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan said on July 1, citing concerns over interference and deteriorating ties.

"We must very seriously discuss the suspension of the Russian television channel broadcast in the territory of Armenia," Simonyan told reporters, according to Armenpress. He criticized recent content aired by Russian state broadcasters, which the Armenian government has denounced as harmful to bilateral ties.

The remarks come as Armenia continues to pivot away from Moscow's sphere of influence and seeks to bolster ties with the West.

Simonyan suggested that individuals connected to Armenian-Russian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan may be financing efforts to meddle in Armenia's internal matters.

"If there are channels that allow themselves to interfere in Armenia’s domestic affairs, perhaps we ought to respond likewise, by at least banning their entry into the homes of our society," he said.

Tensions between Armenia and Russia have mounted since Moscow's failure to intervene during Azerbaijan's military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, which resulted in the mass displacement of ethnic Armenians.

In April, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed a law initiating the country's formal accession process to the European Union.

Though symbolic, the legislation marks a significant political shift, embedding European integration into Armenian law. The bill, passed by parliament in March, was backed by 64 lawmakers and opposed by seven.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said that EU membership would require a referendum, while the Kremlin warned that joining both the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is "simply impossible." The EAEU, established in 2015, includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan.

Why Norway is investing billions in Ukraine’s victory

The Kyiv Independent’s Oleksiy Sorokin sat down with Eivind Vad Petersson, state secretary to the Norwegian foreign minister and co-chair of the joint Norwegian-Ukrainian Working Group on Nuclear Safety and Security.

The Kyiv IndependentOleksiy Sorokin

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced on July 1 that the Russian-made Oreshnik missile system will be deployed in Belarus by the end of 2025. Speaking at a ceremony marking Independence Day, Lukashenko said the decision was made in coordination with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Volgograd.

"The first Oreshnik positions will be in Belarus. You’ve seen how Oreshnik works: the same missiles, the same strikes — but without nuclear warheads, without radioactive contamination of the land and air. This weapon will be stationed in Belarus by the end of the year," Lukashenko said.

Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994 and claimed victory in a seventh consecutive presidential election in January, argued that hosting such weaponry would not make Belarus a target, adding that such concerns are being "imposed from outside." He claimed that countries possessing nuclear weapons have historically avoided military aggression and said the presence of such systems in Belarus is intended solely as a deterrent.

He also said he had delivered a warning to U.S. officials, stating that while nuclear weapons in Belarus are securely stored in accordance with international standards, any unauthorized incursion into Belarusian territory would trigger a "swift and forceful response."

The Belarusian leader emphasized that any use of the Oreshnik system would not involve nuclear warheads and that maintaining modern military capabilities is critical for national defense.

Russia first launched the experimental Oreshnik missile during a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Nov. 21. Putin claimed the attack was in retaliation for Ukraine's use of U.S. and British long-range missiles against Russian territory.

Although little is publicly known about the missile, defense experts believe Oreshnik is not a wholly new development but likely an upgraded version of Russia’s RS-26 missile, also known as the Rubezh, which was first produced in 2011.

Lukashenko reportedly thanked Moscow for supporting the deployment of advanced weapons systems to Belarus and said the introduction of Oreshnik would serve as a tool for domestic stability. "I’m confident that even those of our supporters who don’t yet understand this will come to realize it — without a war. That’s why Oreshnik will be on Belarusian soil. To prevent uprisings," he said.

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The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a Belarusian oppositionist recently released from prison, thanked the U.S. on June 22 for brokering his release and appealed to President Donald Trump to help free other political prisoners in Belarus.

"President Trump now has the power and opportunity to free all political prisoners in Belarus with a single word. And I ask him to do so, to say that word," Tsikhanouski said in Vilnius during his first press conference after the release.

Tsikhanouski, a popular blogger who planned to challenge Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, was arrested shortly before the vote and later sentenced to 18 years in prison on politically motivated charges.

The opposition leader and at least 13 other detainees were released from Belarusian prisons on June 21 after Lukashenko met U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, in Minsk.

Speaking at the press conference alongside his wife and opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Tsikhanouski affirmed that both of them "will continue to support Ukraine and call all of the perpetrators accountable."

Tsikhanouski confirmed that he used to do business both in Ukraine and in Russia but refuted allegations of pro-Russian sympathies, affirming his support for Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"I believe Crimea is Ukrainian. Zelensky has the hardest fate and a heavy load that no other president has. Zelensky is my hero," Tsikhanouski said.

He also said that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remains the leader of the Belarusian opposition, and he will not challenge that.

Tsikhanouskaya stepped in as the opposition candidate in 2020 after her husband's arrest, but was forced into exile after Lukashenko declared victory in what was broadly seen as massive election fraud.

"Do you think that anybody who serves in prison automatically becomes a leader? We have 1,200 such leaders," Tsikhanouski added, referring to the number of political prisoners who remain in prison under Lukashenko's regime.

"Belarus can't be free until the Putin regime collapses. If it wasn't for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, we would not be sitting here; it would have been over (after the Belarus' popular protests against Lukashenko) in 2020-2021," Tsikhanouski said.

Lukashenko, in power since 1994, is a close ally of Putin and has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory for military operations against Ukraine.

The Belarusian dictator has maintained a tight grip over his country by electoral fraud, surveillance, and brutal crackdown on free press, civil society, and political opposition, prompting Western countries to impose sanctions on Belarus.

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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Editor's note: This item has been expanded with additional details.

Belarusian opposition leader and political prisoner Siarhei Tsikhanouski was released on June 21, shortly after dictator Alexander Lukashenko met in Minsk with U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

Tsikhanouski , a popular blogger who planned to challenge Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, was arrested shortly before the vote and later sentenced to 18 years in prison on politically motivated charges. Amnesty International recognized Tsikhanouski as a prisoner of conscience.

His wife, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, stepped in and became the main opposition candidate against Lukashenko.

At least 13 political detainees, including prominent blogger Ihar Losik, were also released on June 21, Belarusian independent outlet Nasha Niva reported.

The other released prisoners include three Polish citizens, two Latvian citizens, one Estonian citizen, a Swedish citizen, a U.S. citizen, and two Japanese citizens, according to Lukashenko's press secretary.

In a post on social media, Tsikhanouskaya welcomed the news but highlighted that "1,150 political prisoners remain behind bars."

Kellogg's deputy, John Coale, said the released political prisoners had been transferred to Vilnius and expressed gratitude to the Lithuanian government for facilitating their relocation.

"President Trump's strong leadership led to the release of 14 prisoners from Belarus today. Thanks to the Lithuanian government for its cooperation and assistance — they remain a true friend and ally," Coale wrote on X.

According to official results of the 2020 election, Lukashenko won with 80% of the vote, while Tsikhanouskaya received just 10%. Evidence indicates that the election was heavily rigged, and Tsikhanouskaya could have realistically won the vote.

As a result, hundreds of thousands took to the streets in Belarus in 2020 to demand a fair election. Thousands were arrested, and many were beaten and tortured. At least seven demonstrators were killed during the protests.

Minsk has faced repeated Western sanctions since the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests.

Lukashenko, in power since 1994, is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory for military operations against Ukraine.

"You have caused quite a stir in the world with your arrival," Lukashenko told Kellogg during their meeting at the Palace of Independence, according to state-run outlet Belta.

"But I wonder why. Can't we have a normal dialogue and talk about our affairs – about relations between Belarus and the United States of America?"

Kellogg is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Belarus in recent years, following former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's 2020 trip under Trump's first term.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenko's regime has played a key logistical role in supporting Moscow's campaign, offering its territory for troop deployments and weapons stockpiles.

Russia ‘afraid to admit’ scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers’ bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says

Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Latvia's parliament adopted a bill on June 19 that prohibits citizens of Russia and Belarus from purchasing real estate in the country, Latvian media reported.

The bill — which carves out exceptions for EU and Latvian permanent residence holders, Belarusian refugees, and repatriates — establishes the new restrictions under the pretenses of protecting the country's national security.

In addition to citizens, the bill prohibits entities that are at least 25% owned by Russian or Belarusian nationals from purchasing property.

"This is a step to limit the influence and presence in Latvia of persons and companies that are adverse to the country,” said Agnese Krasta, an Estonian member of parliament and one of the authors of the initiative.

Latvia, which borders both Russia and Estonia, is widely viewed as one of the most likely targets for a future Russian attack on NATO or the European Union. As the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, Latvia has taken action to increase civil preparedness measures and has drafted plans to relocate a quarter of its population in the case of war.

EU intelligence and security agencies have warned of mounting Russian sabotage operations, including several arson attacks believed to have been coordinated by Moscow.

Latvia joins Finland in imposing a ban on Russians from buying, as Baltic and Nordic countries continue to impose restrictions on Russia over its aggression in the region.

In September 2022, Latvia imposed entry restrictions on Russian citizens as part of a joint agreement with Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Latvia has been one of Ukraine's most vocal backers.

The Baltic state ranks among Europe's top defense spenders, allocating over 3% of GDP to defense in 2025, according to NATO estimates.

Diplomacy in crisis: G7 letdowns reveal limits to Western solidarity on Ukraine

KANANASKIS, Canada — The Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit ended on June 17 with no joint statement in support of Ukraine, no commitments to provide desperately needed U.S. weapons, and no meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. The Ukrainian delegation headed into the summit,

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg will meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the coming days, Reuters reported on June 17, citing four sources familiar with the matter.

Kellogg will meet Lukashenko in a visit to Belarus as peace talks to bring an end to Russia's war against Ukraine remain inconclusive, Reuters reported.

In February, U.S. Deputy Assistant State Secretary Christopher W. Smith visited Belarus alongside two other U.S. officials to conduct a prisoner swap in a similar unannounced visit.

Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has been accused of staging fraudulent elections in Belarus. The leader declared a seventh consecutive presidential election victory in January.

Kellogg has given the impression that the meeting could help reinitiate largely unsuccessful peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, two sources told Reuters.

Lukashenko is seen as a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russia faces isolation in response to its full-scale war against Ukraine.

The White House has discussed ways to weaken Russia's influence on Minsk and bring Belarus closer to the United States, one of the sources said.

On Feb. 12, Smith drove to Belarus from Lithuania following a phone call with Lukashenko. The small U.S. delegation visited a border town where three political prisoners were transferred, including one U.S. citizen and two Belarusian citizens, the New York Times reported.

Lukashenko assured he was ready to decrease repression in Belarus, Smith said, adding that the U.S. wants Belarus to be less reliant on Russia.

Belarus has faced Western sanctions following a presidential election in 2020 that international observers condemned as fraudulent. The sham election garnered mass protests that rejected the results.

Minsk refused to invite a mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the country's Jan. 26 presidential election.

Belarus further isolated itself from the West as it supports Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine.

‘He said he wasn’t going anywhere’ — Survivors search for missing following Russia’s deadliest attack on Kyiv this year

Sitting a few meters from the rubble of what used to be a nondescript nine-story residential building in Kyiv, Lilia rises to her feet every time another pile of debris is cleared from the site targeted by Russia during a mass overnight attack on June 17. “We are waiting (as

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

An uninsured Russian Aframax-class tanker has been illegally conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in international waters near Greece and Cyprus since July 2024, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on June 16.

According to the agency, the vessel, operating without Western insurance, is part of Russia's expanding shadow fleet used to bypass G7 and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports.

HUR said such transfers "pose an environmental threat, allow the aggressor to conceal the origin of oil, evade international control, and ensure its supply to third countries in circumvention of sanctions."

Ukraine has identified the tanker as IMO 9247443 and listed it on the War&Sanctions platform, along with 159 other tankers allegedly belonging to Russia's shadow fleet and 55 captains involved in sanction-busting operations.

Despite price caps and Western restrictions, Russia continues to profit from oil and gas exports, which remain a vital revenue source. According to HUR estimates, roughly one-third of those profits are expected to fund Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025.

In May, the EU approved its 17th sanctions package, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet vessels. The U.S. Treasury had earlier sanctioned over 180 tankers, which together accounted for nearly half of Russia's offshore oil shipments.

While the Biden administration ramped up pressure on Russia's oil trade early in 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump has since declined to impose new sanctions, despite Moscow's continued refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Europe must begin preparing for a gradual reduction in U.S. military support for both the continent and Ukraine, Tagesschau reported on June 13.

"Yes, that's right. That would be so, and we have to deal with that," Pistorius told journalists in response to a question about the U.S. potentially scaling down its support. He noted that the discussions focus on a reduction in U.S. backing rather than a full halt.

The comments come after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Washington would reduce the assistance allocated to Ukraine in the next year's federal budget.

"We now have to look at how much support drops and whether Europeans can compensate for it," Pistorius added.

While the U.S. has been Ukraine's leading military backer under former President Joe Biden, the Trump administration has yet to approve any aid packages and has become increasingly disengaged from peace talks.

Pistorius's comments come amid increasing uncertainty in transatlantic relations. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker confirmed on May 16 that the United States plans to begin discussions with European allies later this year about reducing its military presence on the continent.

Speaking at a security conference in Estonia, Whitaker said the talks would begin after the NATO summit in The Hague in June.

"Nothing has been determined," Whitaker said, according to Reuters. "But as soon as we do, we are going to have these conversations in the structure of NATO."

Whitaker emphasized that any drawdown would be closely coordinated to avoid creating security gaps. Still, he reiterated U.S. President Donald Trump's position that long-standing U.S. efforts to reduce its European military footprint must now be implemented.

"This is going to be orderly, but we are not going to have any more patience for foot-dragging in this situation," he said.

In February, Hegseth reportedly told NATO allies that "stark strategic realities" prevent the United States from being primarily focused on Europe's security. Leaks reported by the Atlantic in March revealed that both Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance privately criticized European defense spending, with Hegseth allegedly expressing his "loathing of European free-loading."

Trump called on NATO member states to increase defense spending up to 5% of GDP. Ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that member states will have agreed to a new goal of increasing defense spending.

"We are headed for a summit in six weeks in which virtually every member of NATO will be at or above 2%, but more importantly, many of them will be over 4%, and all will have agreed on a goal of reaching 5% over the next decade," Rubio told Fox News on May 15.

Such a move would mark a historic shift, with NATO partners collectively accounting for more than half of the alliance's military capacity, according to Rubio.

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, NATO members have significantly increased their defense spending, with countries like Poland and the Baltic nations aiming to reach the 5% target in the coming years.

Ukraine bracing for ‘painful’ reduction in US military aid after Hegseth announces cuts

Editor’s note: For security reasons, the real names of the soldiers mentioned in this story have not been used. A reduction in U.S. military aid to Ukraine would be “painful” and could have potentially “dire consequences” for the global order, Ukrainian lawmakers and soldiers have told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include Germany's announcement to supply Ukraine with $2.2 billion in additional military aid.

Germany will deliver new IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine under a three-year supply plan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a joint press conference with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who added Berlin has no plans to provide Taurus long-range missiles.

The announcement comes amid escalating Russian aerial assaults, including a June 10 missile and drone strike on Kyiv, one of the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion.

"We are grateful for the supply of IRIS-T air defense systems," Zelensky said on June 12. "We understand that deliveries are currently being planned... for the next three years. This is very important assistance."

The IRIS-T is a German-made medium-range surface-to-air missile system capable of intercepting drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles.

Pistorius confirmed the delivery timeline but firmly ruled out the possibility of sending Taurus missiles — weapons Kyiv has repeatedly requested to strike deep into Russian territory.

"You asked me whether we are considering this, and my answer is no," Pistorius said.

Before taking office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signaled openness to lifting former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ban on the missiles. That stance has not yet resulted in a policy shift.

Ukraine has already received long-range missiles — including ATACMS from the U.S. and Storm Shadow and SCALP from the U.K. and France. Initially restricted to use within Ukrainian territory, Western allies only began easing those limitations in late 2024.

Germany is Ukraine's largest military donor in Europe. Pistorius said that Berlin will provide 9 billion euros ($10.4 billion) in aid this year, with investments in defense production being considered. The total includes an additional commitment in military aid worth 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion).

"Today, we discussed that this aid will continue," he said. "We agreed on additional investments in production... both in Ukraine and in Germany."

Zelensky visited Berlin on May 28 for talks with Merz, part of an ongoing effort to bolster Ukraine's defense industry amid uncertainty over U.S. support under President Donald Trump.

Why can’t the West match Russia’s ammunition production?

The West is failing to catch up to Russia’s production of the most basic unit of war for the past half-millennium — gunpowder. The modern propellants and explosives that power war have largely been offshored. While Western manufacturers are churning out shell casings, they are short on the materials to fill

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

The Council of the EU on June 12 approved fresh tariffs on fertilizers and remaining agricultural goods from Russia and Belarus, aiming to reduce Russian export revenues.

The measures target those goods that have not yet been subject to additional customs duties and will enter into force on July 1. The tariffs on fertilizers will increase gradually over the next three years.

The step comes as the EU readies additional sanctions against Russia as it continues to wage its all-out war against Ukraine.

"Polish Presidency motto is 'Security, Europe!' and these measures increase our economic security by reducing dependencies from Russia," said Michal Baranowski, the trade undersecretary at the Polish Economy Ministry.

"We are further reducing Russia’s export revenues and therefore its ability to finance its brutal war. This is united Europe at its best," he said in a statement.

The new tariffs will apply to goods that made up around 15% of all agricultural imports from Russia in 2023. Fertilizer tariffs will focus on certain nitrogen-based products, the Council said in a statement.

Russian fertilizers accounted for more than a quarter of all of the EU's imports in this sector in 2023, worth almost $1.5 billion.

Apart from stifling Russia's trade revenue, the step also aims to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian and Belarusian goods, protect European farmers, and diversify the supply.

The EU adopted higher tariffs on cereals, oilseeds, and some other products from Russia and Belarus in May 2024. Earlier this year, the European Commission proposed imposing similar measures on all remaining agricultural products from the two countries.

Putin’s suspected daughter found working in anti-war galleries in Paris

Nastya Rodionova, a Russian writer and artist who has been based in Paris since 2022, had only met gallery manager Luiza Rozova in passing at events before she learned who the 22-year-old’s parents were. Described by a number of people as a “very nice and well-mannered girl,” Rozova is

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Il n’a jamais été simple de parler du Bélarus en France sans tomber dans le cliché. La formulation « dernière dictature d’Europe » a encore été reprise par les médias aujourd’hui pour évoquer le scrutin présidentiel qui s’est tenu dimanche, et j’en veux un peu aux journalistes pour cette paresse intellectuelle.
« Dernière dictature d’Europe » était une formule confortable pour se rassurer sur le processus de démocratisation qui aurait été en voie de généralisation sur le continent européen; certes, à des vitesses variables, mais quand-même quasiment certain. Le Bélarus faisait alors office d’épouvantail et de dernier bastion d’un monde en cours de disparition. Cela empêchait de voir les dynamiques réelles sur place (et de s’interroger par exemple sur la manière dont la stabilité, les politiques sociales et le progrès économique pouvaient atrophier la sensibilité politique). Cela faisait aussi du bien à l’égo européen.
Nous n’en sommes plus là aujourd’hui, bien évidemment, et dans un contexte de montée d’attractivité des autoritarismes, le Belarus est plutôt un cas d’école qui devrait attirer notre attention. Dire que l’élection présidentielle qui vient de s’écouler était un simulacre, c’est à la fois vrai et stérile, parce que c’est une manière de dire « point, à la ligne, on passe à autre chose » qui neutralise toute volonté de compréhension.
Malheureusement, la guerre conduite par la Russie contre l’Ukraine m’a empêché d’être suffisamment vigilante sur le Bélarus pour livrer une analyse approfondie. Ce que je dis est à prendre avec des pincettes; ce sont des pistes à creuser.
Un régime politique autoritaire fonctionne grâce à un certain dosage de coercition et d’adhésion; il doit non seulement mettre en place une répression suffisamment forte pour bloquer les oppositions, mais aussi distribuer suffisamment de bénéfices pour susciter l’adhésion. Plus le ratio est en faveur des bénéfices, plus le pouvoir est stable; plus il penche du côté répressif, plus le régime est fragile. Pendant longtemps, le régime politique du Belarus s’est attaché à distribuer beaucoup de bénéfices à la population, notamment à travers des politiques sociales, des politiques de développement et une promesse de stabilité et de prévisibilité. Les Bélarusses vivaient – économiquement – plutôt mieux que beaucoup de leurs voisins, et en avaient conscience. Le prix politique à payer apparaissait donc comme acceptable.
Evidemment, le soutien de la Russie était et reste l’exosquelette du régime bélarusse, aussi bien d’un point de vue politique qu’économique.
Les protestations massives de 2020 étaient intervenues dans le contexte d’une certaine fragilisation du modèle, et notamment d’une perception du régime comme moins protecteur, mais aussi en décalage avec les demandes de la société. Les répressions violentes qui ont suivi et qui se sont maintenues tout au long des années suivantes ont fait basculer le ratio répression/bénéfices en faveur de la répression. Cette période violente va compter dans l’histoire politique bélarusse: on ne le perçoit pas encore, mais elle a donné naissance à une expérience différente, moins marginale de l’opposition politique, de la répression et de la prison. Elle a aussi permis de structurer une opposition à l’étranger et de lui donner des canaux de prise de parole. Derrière les apparences de « il ne se passe rien », le Belarus est en réalité bien plus prêt qu’en 2020 à entamer une transition politique, avec une nouvelle génération de citoyens jetés avec violence dans la politique.
Cependant, et paradoxalement, c’est la guerre en Ukraine qui a redonné de la stabilité au régime bélarusse. En effet, dans un contexte où la Russie essaie de toutes ses forces de faire du Bélarus un cobelligérant, il y a des choses que Loukachenko a réussi à protéger. Certes, des unités armées russes et des complexes d’armement sont désormais basés au Belarus, qui sert de base aux attaques contre l’Ukraine. Cependant, aucune unité armée bélarusse ne combat aux côtés de la Russie contre l’Ukraine. Pensez au paradoxe: des soldats nord-coréens, mais pas de soldats bélarusses, alors que le pays se déclare être le plus proche allié de la Russie. Le territoire du Bélarus reste un territoire en paix. Cela, les citoyens savent qu’ils le doivent en partie à Loukachenko… mais aussi en partie aux Ukrainiens qui ne désespèrent pas de retourner les Bélarusses contre Moscou, et qui ne les perçoivent pas de la même manière que les Russes.
La politique menée par Loukachenko vis-à-vis de la Russie a été caractérisée par un de mes anciens collègues bélarusses par la formule suivante: « on dit oui à tout, puis on bureaucratise au maximum le processus pour finalement ne rien faire ». C’est aussi une stratégie que les Bélarusses appliquent au quotidien vis-à-vis de leur Etat. Il y a une certaine résilience stratégique de la société bélarusse qu’on ferait bien de souligner. Ne nous laissons pas tromper par cette apparence de calme plat: le Bélarus n’est pas la Russie et suivra une dynamique qui lui sera propre.