The US raises the stakes amid Russia’s threats. In response to Moscow’s threats, American President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines closer to Russia. The Times reports that this is not just a show of force but a personal message to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

This exchange significantly escalated nuclear rhetoric between the two powers, underscoring the growing intertwining of the Ukraine war with nuclear deterrence.

US nuclear submarines head toward Russia

The American president responded in his trademark style — tough and theatrical. In a Truth Social post, Trump announced the relocation of two nuclear submarines to relevant regions.

This move is not just a military maneuver but a strategic political signal. Trump is responding less to Medvedev’s rhetoric and more to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of Trump’s ceasefire proposal in Ukraine.

After the strike on Kyiv that killed 31 people, including five children, Putin confirmed that Russia’s conditions for ending the war, announced back in summer 2024, remain unchanged. He added that Russia is ready to wait until Ukraine agrees to Moscow’s conditions. 

Among them are:

• The withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia
• Ukraine’s refusal of NATO membership
• Ukraine’s non-nuclear status
• Sanctions’ lift

What does the submarine deployment mean?

The US possesses 71 nuclear-powered submarines, including 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile subs, each capable of carrying up to 20 Trident II nuclear warheads. At any given moment, 8 to 10 of them are at sea. The White House said that this is not provocation but deterrence.

Sanctions, tariffs, and the energy war

In addition to military signals, Trump threatens secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian energy. India is already feeling the heat — partial tariffs of 25% have been imposed. In the danger zone are China and Brazil, which remain key importers of Russian gas.

These statements show that Trump’s policy toward Russia is rapidly changing, and the US pressure against Moscow is also increasing. 

Europe has a chance to strike at the Kremlin’s lifelines, if it dares to act. Around 70% of the “shadow fleet” transporting Russian oil sails through the Baltic Sea, said Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha at a joint press conference with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, UkrInform reports. 

“Let me remind you that about 70% of the shadow fleet that transports Russian oil passes through the Baltic Sea. There’s still untapped potential here, in my view, among our European partners — particularly the Baltic Sea states,” Sybiha emphasized.

Sanctions must target not just oil, but war criminals too

Sybiha also urged Western partners to impose targeted individual sanctions on Russian officials involved in the abduction of Ukrainian children and unlawful sentences against Ukrainian POWs.

Poland’s leadership role in the Baltic region

With Poland set to chair the Council of the Baltic Sea States, Sybiha said Warsaw has a chance to spearhead efforts to dismantle the Kremlin’s shadow oil network.

“Now is the time for active diplomacy, pressure, and accountability,” he stressed.

The informal gathering of the Ukrainian and Polish foreign ministers took place at Sikorski’s residence in Kobylniki, in Poland’s Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship. Discussions covered a wide range of topics, from international support for Ukraine to humanitarian issues and protecting Ukrainian citizens.

Russian oil is stranded at sea. At least four tankers carrying Russian oil are unable to dock near India’s shores due to the threat of sanctions from the US and EU, Bloomberg reports. 

In mid-July, the EU implemented new sanctions against Russia aimed at cutting its energy revenues. At the same time, US President Donald Trump’s administration has threatened India with high import tariffs and penalties for buying Russian oil. 

Earlier, the head of the Indian Oil Corporation, A.S. Sahni, stated that if Russian supplies are restricted, the company will revert to traditional import schemes used before the war in Ukraine, when Moscow’s export to India was lower than 2%. 

Sanctioned tankers idle off the Indian coast

Satellite tracking data shows that the tankers Achilles and Elyte, which loaded Urals crude in late June from Primorsk and Ust-Luga, are anchored near the port of Jamnagar, although they were scheduled to arrive in Sikka on 30–31 July. Both vessels are listed under EU and UK sanctions.

Two other tankers — Destan (under sanctions) and Horae (not sanctioned) — are also off the coast, awaiting unloading. Destan was due in Sikka on 24–25 July, while Horae is en route to Vadinar and expected to arrive on 1 August.

The delay of four tankers may signal that the era of consequence-free trade is nearing its end. Even if the tankers eventually reroute or unload, the situation marks a new phase of global pressure on countries doing business with Russia.

Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has cynically commented on the war in Ukraine for the first time since US President Donald Trump issued his 10-day ultimatum on Russia. Last week, the American president gave Russia ten days to reach a peaceful settlement, threatening massive sanctions if this does not happen by 8 August, UNIAN reports.

Moscow is ready to wait

During a meeting with the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, Putin spoke positively about the negotiations in Turkiye and the prisoner exchanges, stating that Moscow is “ready to wait” if Kyiv is not prepared for talks.

At the same time, he said the Ukrainian political regime “is not based on the Constitution” and supports prolonged negotiations “without any time limits.”

In June, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that the Kremlin used prisoner exchanges as a tool to delay the negotiation process with Ukraine and dodge sanctions. While sending back Ukrainian prisoners of war, beaten and tortured in captivity, Russia does not agree to any other proposition to end the war. 

Ukrainian soldier dies weeks after release from Russian captivity with his organs failing due to torture

Kremlin’s conditions remain the same as last year 

Putin confirmed that Russia’s conditions for ending the war, announced back in summer 2024, remain unchanged.

Last year, he insisted on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Moscow has illegally incorporated these Ukrainian regions into its Constitution. Additionally, Russia demands that Ukraine renounce NATO membership, enshrine a non-nuclear status, and lift sanctions.

Lukashenko says Zelenskyy should ask Putin to negotiate

In talks with propagandists, Putin boasted about the production of the first serial ballistic missile Oreshnik and the Russian army’s offensive along the entire front line.

In 2024, Russia used a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) missile armed with conventional warheads to strike Dnipro. While MIRV technology has long been associated with nuclear delivery systems, this marked its first use in combat. The scale of the destruction remains unknown. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia targeted industrial facilities and critical infrastructure in Dnipro.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko urged Zelenskyy “to simply sit down at the negotiating table” with Putin and emphasized that Minsk and Moscow will not kneel because they decisively defend their interests.

Hungary helps Russia by routing helicopter repairs through Kazakhstan while sourcing spare parts from Moscow, InformNapalm reports. InformNapalm is a volunteer intelligence community known for cyber operations exposing Russian military networks. Their latest release reveals a Hungarian company, Milspace Kft, offering a sanctions workaround for Russia’s Mil Design Bureau — the producer of Mi-series helicopters actively used against Ukrainian troops.

Leaked document exposes Hungary’s Milspace Kft in sanction evasion scheme

InformNapalm, working with the Militant Intelligence group, disclosed new data from the OpsHackRussia’sDay cyber operation. The dataset comes from hacked corporate correspondence of Russian defense industry companies. The latest document shows that Milspace Kft sent an official proposal to the Mexican company Personas y Paquetes Por Aire SA de CV. In this letter, Milspace Kft explains that Russian helicopter factories are under sanctions and offers a route to bypass these restrictions.

The leaked letter states:

“The Russian factory in Kazan, Mil Design Bureau and Holding of Russian Helicopters are under sanctions because of Ukrainen (original spelling, – Ed.) war. So, nobody can work with them directly. But we found a solution”

Milspace Kft proposes to act as the formal contractor while repairs would be done in a Kazakhstan plant licensed by Mil Design Bureau.

“Our Milspace is authorized organization of licensed by Mil Design Bureau repairing plant in Kazahstan. We are ready to participate in process of overhaul for your helicopters,” the leaked letter reads.

Spare parts would come from Moscow, specifically from Mi-INTER Ltd. The work would be supervised and coordinated with Mil Design Bureau and Russian Helicopters, both parts of Rostec, a large Russian state-owned conglomerate.

“Every of these organizations ready to participate in our repairing process, so the start was made successfully,” the document states.

Evidence links Hungary to Russian helicopter support

InformNapalm reports that this letter details a service package worth $92,000. The plan includes a team of four “to carry out troubleshooting work on airframe and helicopters under a separate contract.”

“Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has consistently shown loyalty to the Kremlin, delaying EU sanctions and blocking military aid to Ukraine through NATO and EU structures. Therefore, Milspace Kft’s involvement in these operations aligns with Budapest’s geopolitical position, which often conflicts with the core interests of both the EU and NATO,” Inform Napalm says.

Risks for EU and NATO security

InformNapalm warns that Hungary’s involvement undermines NATO collective security. The practice ensures that sanctioned Russian helicopters remain operational, despite restrictions. This leak also highlights a broader pattern of using Kazakhstan as a hub for maintaining Russian equipment, similar to previous findings from the #SU30Leaks series.

Hacktivists call on journalists and European officials to investigate these sanction evasion networks before they grow further. They note that more documents from the OpsHackRussiasDay operation will follow.

Dozens of parliamentarians from various countries staged a coordinated walkout during a speech by Russian Federation Council Chairwoman Valentina Matvienko at the World Conference of Speakers of Parliaments in Switzerland on 30 July.

Why the mass walkout? According to Ukrainian Parliament Vice-Speaker Olena Kondratiuk, it sent a clear message about Russian aggression.

“This is a walkout against the aggressor,” Kondratiuk said, describing tears in her eyes as she watched international colleagues leave.

The half-empty hall, she argued, showed exactly how democratic parliaments view Russia.

Czech Parliament’s Chamber of Deputies Speaker Marketa Pekarova Adamova also made her reasoning explicit. She refused to be “a prop in the lies on which the criminal Kremlin regime is based.”

“She herself bears personal responsibility for the crime of aggression and all subsequent Russian atrocities after publicly approving the use of armed forces on Ukrainian territory,” Adamova wrote.

Better to spend time with colleagues “who support Ukraine in its fight for freedom and democracy,” she added.

But why was Matvienko allowed into Geneva at all? Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry had called her conference participation “disgraceful.” Spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi put it bluntly: her place should be “in the dock, not at international conferences.”

Here’s the problem: Matvienko appears on EU sanctions lists related to Russia’s invasion. So does much of the Russian delegation. Switzerland honors these sanctions—with one exception. The country permits sanctioned individuals to enter when visiting international organizations based there.

What had Matvienko been saying? Two days earlier, she invited international parliamentarians to visit occupied Ukrainian territories and see the “Alley of Angels.” This is a memorial in Donetsk that Russian forces erected allegedly commemorating children killed by Ukrainian forces in the conflict, which is considered a Russian propaganda narrative as there is no independent proof and convincing evidence. 

Earlier, Ukraine’s Security Service charged Matvienko in absentia in 2024 under multiple articles. According to investigators, she signed parliamentary decisions authorizing Russian troop deployment in Ukraine. She also approved ratification agreements for annexing occupied Ukrainian territories. She faces additional charges including incitement to wage aggressive war, for which Ukraine plans to prosecute her at a Special Tribunal.

Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian alliance.

Here, a new trade offensive reveals the United States has found a soft underbelly in the Brics alliance. Brazil, long seen as the most vulnerable member of the Russian economic alliance, is now facing steep tariffs and mounting pressure, turning it into a frontline state in the economic war to isolate Russia.

So far, the attack has been led by President Donald Trump himself. The White House has confirmed that tariffs on Brazilian seafood will rise to 50 percent starting at the beginning of August, currently the highest such penalty in the world. 

According to reports from Rio Grande do Norte, where much of the industry is based, the impact could be immediate: more than 30 vessels may suspend operations, 1,500 workers could lose their jobs, and major exporters like Produmar warn that sales to the US will become unfeasible. 

While framed as a trade policy decision, Washington has already signaled broader escalation: satellite services like GPS may be restricted, sanctions on government entities are on the table, and US diplomats are pressuring Brazil to break alignment with the Brics coalition, a bloc now increasingly seen as the backbone of Russia’s geopolitical strategy.

The official justification is highly personal. President Trump has repeatedly criticized Brazil’s prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who attempted to orchestrate a military coup through 2022 and 2023, calling it a witch hunt against Trump’s political ally. But behind this statement, a broader strategic move is at play. 

Brics has emerged as the United States’ most significant economic and geopolitical competitor, and Brazil is one of the original BRICS members and the third largest economy in the group behind China and India, yet it is also the most dependent on the United States for exports, finance, and high-tech imports.

By pressuring Brazil first, Washington is testing whether the BRICS alliance can survive an asymmetric economic war, beginning not with the most defiant members, but instead with the most exposed.

That exposure runs deep; roughly 20 percent of Brazil’s exports go to the United States, and many of its most profitable industries, agriculture, energy, and aerospace, depend on access to US markets, machinery, and data systems to function properly. The threat of cutting off GPS access is especially serious: Brazil’s space agency and large agricultural businesses greatly rely on American satellite data for everything from navigation to logistics and crop planning.

Although Brazil is now exploring alternatives, switching systems would take years, cost billions, and potentially isolate the country from its biggest investors. 

This is precisely what makes the US strategy so dangerous for BRICS cohesion. If the glass canon of the Brazilian economy folds under pressure, it might also be forced to halt its participation in key BRICS initiatives or leave the coalition altogether, meaning that Russia will face immediate consequences. 

Moscow has spent years promoting BRICS as a geopolitical counterweight to the West, including through de-dollarized trade, shared financial infrastructure, and new commodity pricing schemes. If Brazil steps back, it could disrupt these alternative Russian trade routes, payment mechanisms, and undermine diplomatic coordination, leaving Russia even more isolated at a time when its access to hard currency, global finance, and reliable partners is already shrinking. 

The pressure comes as Russia faces major economic troubles; sanctions, crackdowns on its shadow fleet, and de-dollarization have sharply limited its trade options. 

Brics remains Moscow’s best shot at salvaging energy exports, arms sales, and financial alternatives, and therefore its economy. Losing Brazil would weaken the bloc’s credibility and further erode Russia’s international pitch of Brics as a viable economic system, and unlike India, Brazil lacks scale, self-sufficiency, or military leverage, and if it folds, others will notice.

Overall, the United States has launched a calculated strike on the weakest point of the Russian Brics alliance, using tariffs, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure to peel away Brazil from its economic allies. What was framed as a protest over Bolsonaro’s prosecution might be a clever move to combat the US’s biggest geopolitical competitor.

And as BRICS fractures, Russia risks becoming even more isolated, losing the alliance’s third-largest economy, and one larger than its own, which would strip Moscow of credibility and critical leverage.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s new ultimatum for Russia, giving it only ten days to end the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin confirmed that Russia has no intention to stop its aggression, UNIAN reports. 

“We took Trump’s statement about a shortened timeline for resolving the situation in Ukraine and his disinterest in contacts into account,” says Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, adding that Russia acts “in the interest of its own security.”

No talks, no meeting: Trump–Putin summit off the table

Peskov has also ruled out any upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump, while lamenting the stagnation in US–Russia relations.

“Russia would like to see more momentum, but that requires signals from both sides,” he says.

Peskov’s statement is not entirely truthful in light of Trump’s actions in 2025. The US president made a number of concessions to Russia on the path to peace.

• He pressured not only Moscow but also Kyiv and was considering recognizing Crimea as part of Russia. 
• He delayed military aid to Ukraine, which limited Kyiv’s defensive capabilities.
• At the same time, Trump lifted Russia out of international isolation by having conversations with Russian authorities, including Putin, which did not happen under former President Joe Biden. 

Trump’s ultimatum: Ten days or sanctions

On 14 July, Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries buying its oil unless Putin halts his attacks on Ukraine within 50 days. This could impact China, India, and Brazil, Russia’s main economic allies. 

As Trump threatens sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, India prepares to switch suppliers to avoid fallout

By 28 July, the US president had slashed its first deadline.

“I’m not so interested in talking [to Putin] any more. Every time I think it’s going to end, he kills people,” Trump claimed.

Why would Ukraine’s foreign ministry call an international conference attendance “disgraceful”?

The answer sits in a Geneva conference hall where Valentina Matvienko, head of Russia’s Federation Council, addressed fellow parliamentarians this week at the Inter-Parliamentary Union conference. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi didn’t mince words: her place is “in the dock, not at international conferences.”

From the podium in Switzerland, Matvienko invited foreign colleagues to visit Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.

“Please come to Donbas, look at the ‘Alley of Angels,’ which is dedicated to the memory of these murdered children,” she told the assembly an old Russian propaganda narrative. “Russia was forced to intervene to stop this bloodshed.”

This narrative presents Russia as a rescuer and frames its aggression as a “humanitarian mission” while providing highly questionable or fabricated stories.

How did a sanctioned Russian official even reach Switzerland? The country joined EU sanctions targeting Matvienko and other Russian officials. But Swiss policy includes a loophole—sanctioned individuals can enter when participating in international organizations headquartered there.

Matvienko didn’t travel alone. Her delegation included State Duma Deputy Chairman Pyotr Tolstoy and “LDNR” leader Leonid Slutsky—multiple members appear on Western sanctions lists connected to Ukraine’s invasion, Radio Free Europe reported.

Ukraine’s foreign minister went further than diplomatic protests. He urged conference participants with “self-respect” to avoid shaking hands with Matvienko, calling her hands “stained with Ukrainian blood.” Ukraine plans to pursue her prosecution at a Special Tribunal for Russian aggression.

“The Genocidal Matvienko bears personal responsibility for the crime of aggression and all subsequent atrocities after publicly endorsing the use of Russian armed forces on Ukrainian territory,” he wrote.

Ukraine and the Council of Europe established a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine on 25 June 2025, to prosecute Russian leaders for the invasion. The tribunal fills a gap left by the International Criminal Court, which lacks jurisdiction over aggression crimes in this case because Russia doesn’t recognize the relevant ICC provisions.

According to investigation findings reported by Ukrainian security services, Matvienko signed parliamentary decisions authorizing Russian military deployment in Ukraine before the full-scale invasion began.

She also reportedly approved ratification agreements for annexing occupied portions of Ukrainian regions to Russia. The Security Service of Ukraine has filed charges against her in absentia under multiple articles, including incitement to wage aggressive war.

US President Donald Trump shortens Russian President Vladimir Putin’s deadline. Trump has given Russia a shortened timeframe of 10–12 days to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or face tougher sanctions, as his frustration with the Russian leader grows, according to the Financial Times. 

Speaking Monday at his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland, Trump said he would move up the 50-day deadline he had previously set for Putin to avoid so-called “secondary sanctions.”

“He kills people”

“I’m going to reduce that 50 days that I gave him to a lesser number. There’s no reason in waiting,” he added in a joint appearance with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

He said he want to be generous, but just does not see any progress being made. He made clear he doesn’t believe Putin will meet the demands within the original 50-day window.

“I’m not so interested in talking [to Putin] any more. Every time I think it’s going to end, he kills people,” Trump added.

Although Trump spent the first months of his presidency blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the war, his tone has recently shifted, especially after the US-Ukraine presidential meeting at the NATO summit just over a month ago.

Kyiv welcomes the US pressure

On Monday, Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office Andrii Yermak welcomed Trump’s decision to shorten the ceasefire deadline, thanking him for “standing firm and delivering a clear message of peace through strength”.

Russian companies are funneling billions of rubles into temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories under the guise of a “special infrastructure project,” according to InformPalm. 

The Kremlin allocates budget funds and transfers them to selected companies through classified contracts. Those companies create fictitious subcontractors and spend the money mostly on paper.

Actual construction is limited to minimal work done just for propaganda visuals. According to InformPalm, which accessed correspondence between Russian authorities and companies intercepted by the 256 Cyber Assault Group, this is a centralized program for distributing billions of dollars that end up in the pockets of Kremlin-connected business groups.

“The main goal is not regional development but financial support for the military presence and enrichment of pro-Kremlin businesses,” the investigation says.

Since 2022, Russia has forcibly applied the Crimea development model to newly occupied territories, boiling down to “money pumping, fictitious rebuilding, propaganda, and anonymity guarantees,” creating the illusion of progress.

“All resources are concentrated in Russian contractors formally not linked to their parent companies,” experts note.

Six Russian ministries are involved in this scheme, and the Ministry of Construction even created a special department to implement the project.

Who is involved?

The 256 Cyber Assault Group published two lists (2022 and 2024) of 194 companies allowed to work in the temporarily occupied territories. These include both little-known shell companies and major players such as:

• Rostelecom
• VAD
• Avtodor-Engineering
• R-Stroy (linked to projects in destroyed Mariupol)

The mechanism is standard: a company receives a contract, keeps part of the funds, and passes the work to subcontractors. For example, SK Sirius, registered in Crimea, is liquidating after one year of operation.

Most workers are brought in from Russia, creating minimal load on the local economy. Propaganda uses this as proof of successful restoration.

Special case is Miranda-Media

Since 2014, this company has provided telecommunications infrastructure in the occupied territories, Crimea, and Donbas. The EU sanctioned it only at the end of 2023. However, its subsidiary Myrtelecom operated without restrictions for a long time.

Sanctions issues and prospects

Although sanctions have affected some companies, most operate openly, holding assets in Russia and partners abroad. 

Striking these companies with sanctions could not only halt funding of military projects but also break corruption links within the system. 

However, the Kremlin successfully conceals ultimate beneficiaries through chains of subcontractors and legally clean entities, complicating the enforcement of international restrictions.

Russia’s prestigious Higher School of Economics (HSE) launched what it describes as the country’s first two-year master’s program dedicated to sanctions compliance, according to the university’s website.

Officially titled “International Corporate Compliance,” the program includes modules on “identifying and detecting sanctions risks,” Russian media outlet IStories reported on 15 July, citing university materials.

The two-year course will focus on international corporate compliance and business ethics, and will be taught in both Russian and English.

The program costs 490,000 rubles (over $6,000) per year with no state-funded places available. Graduates will be positioned to work in state corporations and companies closely cooperating with the government. 

HSE has simultaneously introduced a development course called “Sanctions Compliance.” This training teaches participants to “identify risk zones for secondary sanctions and enforcement measures by foreign and Russian regulators during transactions with Russian and foreign entities, and conduct transaction analysis for sanctions risk,” according to the reports.

Priced at 84,000 rubles ($1,049), the course includes theoretical instruction and real-world case studies and runs for 136 hours of webinars.

A third HSE professional development program focuses on working with crypto assets under sanctions conditions.

Moscow State University’s law faculty has partnered with the National Compliance Association to offer its own sanctions circumvention course for 95,000 rubles (almost $1,200).

Following Vladimir Putin’s decree, MSU is establishing a scientific-educational center for sanctions compliance.

Sanctions compliance courses reportedly were previously taught as mandatory subjects for international law department students at HSE and the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

Sanctions on Russia

Ukrainian Security Service long-range drones struck the Signal plant in Russian Stavropol on 26 July, targeting one of Russia’s largest radio electronics manufacturers, hromadske reported, citing a source in the Security Forces.

One of the strikes reportedly hit building No. 2 (workshop No. 5), where” expensive imported equipment is located — machine tools based on numerical program control,” the source told hromadske.

The second strike was recorded in building No. 1, which houses workshop No. 17 for radio electronic devices.

The Signal plant specializes in producing various types of electronic warfare systems, radar, radio navigation equipment, and remote control radio equipment for Russia’s military-industrial complex. The facility operates under international sanctions.

The targeted workshops house critical infrastructure for military production: from imported machinery with numerical program control systems to radio electronic devices essential for military communications and navigation systems.

Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 54 unmanned aircraft overnight on 26 July across five oblasts, as well as over temporarily occupied Crimea and the Azov and Black Seas. By morning, Russian forces claimed to have downed six additional drones over North Ossetia and Moscow Oblast.

The attack represents a significant strike on Russia’s defense manufacturing capabilities, targeting a facility that produces electronic warfare equipment and radar systems used by Russian forces.

While Ukraine proposes peace, Russians again terrorize cities with missiles and drones. After talks in Istanbul where Ukraine offered a complete ceasefire, occupying Russian forces immediately struck Ukrainian cities, says President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“Yesterday at the meeting in Istanbul, the Russian side was again offered the proposal to immediately and fully cease fire. In response, Russian drones struck residential buildings and the ‘Pryvoz’ market in Oblast, apartment buildings in Cherkasy, energy infrastructure in Kharkiv region, a university gym in Zaporizhzhia, and targets in Donetsk, Sumy, and Mykolaiv regions,” Zelenskyy claims.

Pryvoz is one of the oldest and most famous markets in Odesa, a living iconic part of the city’s culture and history. Founded in 1827, it was the economic heart of the city, supplying food to Odesa and the region.

It became not only the main shopping place for locals but also a hub of Odesa’s humor. There, sellers and customers joke during bargaining, shout sayings, and win over buyers. It is believed that the unique Odesa dialect, the city’s distinctive linguistic culture, began forming there.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizes that Russia not only continues its terror but also blocks diplomatic efforts, thus deserving harsh sanctions and strikes on its logistics, military bases, and production facilities.

“We will do everything to make diplomacy work. But it is Russia that must stop this war it started,” the Ukrainian president stresses. 

Earlier, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Kyiv forces would receive secret weapons to “influence” Russia’s territory. He did not mention specific names or dates for the deliveries.

As Putin vows summer escalation, Berlin says Kyiv will soon gain secret tools to “affect Russian territory”

Wadephul added that European partners worked intensively on delivering weapons to Ukraine. The issue is not about finances but about the defense industry’s production capacity.

In December 2024, the Indian company Ideal Detonators Private Limited shipped two batches of octogen, a military-grade explosive, to Russia, totaling over $1.4 million. Recipients included the Russian company Promsintez and High Technology Initiation Systems, Reuters reports.

An SBU official reveals that in April, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on a plant owned by Promsintez.

Octogen is critical to modern missile warheads, torpedoes, explosive shells, and rocket engines. According to the Pentagon, this high-quality explosive is used in Russia’s advanced military systems, and the US government has warned financial institutions not to support octogen sales to Moscow.

Three sanctions lawyers say the US Treasury Department has the authority to impose sanctions on those selling octogen and similar materials to Russia. Octogen is known as a “high-performance explosive,” meaning it detonates quickly and is designed for maximum destruction.

The US State Department says it has repeatedly warned India that companies involved in military business face sanctions risks.

Reuters identified two shipments of octogen sent by India’s Ideal Detonators Private Limited in December, both unloaded in Saint Petersburg, according to Indian customs data. An Indian official familiar with these shipments confirmed their presence.

One batch, valued at $405,200, was purchased by a Russian company, High Technology Initiation Systems. The other batch, worth over $1 million, was bought by Promsintez. Both buyers are located in Samara Oblast, near the Kazakhstan border in southern Russia.

Ideal Detonators, based in Telangana, India, declined to comment.

Under the Trump administration, progress on Russia-related sanctions slowed significantly, and it remains unclear whether the US will take further action against Indian companies doing business with Russia’s defense industry.

Washington has long sought closer ties with India to pull the South Asian country away from China.

Eric Prince, a partner at Washington law firm Akin, said the US government often prefers to raise concerns privately with allies and resorts to punitive measures only as a last resort.

Evacuation may become impossible. Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has urged all Polish citizens currently in Russia to leave the country immediately, The Moscow Times reports, citing an official statement by the agency.

The Polish Foreign Ministry has emphasized particular concern for Polish nationals holding dual citizenship with Russia. According to Polish diplomats, Russian authorities treat such individuals exclusively as Russian citizens, making them subject to military mobilization, a decree issued in September 2022 and still formally in effect.

“We recommend that Polish citizens currently in Russia leave the country using available commercial or private means, unless their personal, family, or professional circumstances require them to remain,” the statement reads.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland has also warned that consular assistance options are extremely limited. Due to Russia’s reduced diplomatic and consular presence, obtaining support may require traveling to remote regions far from major urban centers.

Other risks include the suspension of direct air travel between Poland and Russia, inoperative international bank cards, and the aggressive conduct of Russian security services, who are reportedly authorized to detain individuals, search phones, and carry out street-level surveillance.

“In the event of a sudden deterioration in the security situation, closure of borders, or other unforeseen developments, evacuation may be significantly hindered, or entirely impossible,” the ministry cautions.

Earlier, a Russian drone attack on Ukraine damaged the Polish company Barlinek in the city of Vinnytsia.  As a result of the strike, two employees were hospitalized in serious condition, suffering from numerous burns. According to Polish sources, the attack could be deliberate as retaliation for providing Ukraine with aid. 

Rosneft-linked oil payment rules changed after EU sanctions, Bloomberg reports. Mumbai-based Nayara Energy, the Indian refinery part-owned by Rosneft, now demands upfront payment or documentary letters of credit from buyers, showing how far-reaching the latest EU sanctions package is.

Nayara tightens oil deal terms after new EU measures

Nayara Energy Ltd., a key Indian refinery partially owned by Russia’s Rosneft, is now requiring advance payments or documentary letters of credit for upcoming oil shipments. According to Bloomberg, the shift was revealed in a revised tender document for a naphtha cargo scheduled for next month. The previous version of the tender included no such financial requirements. Naphtha is a fraction of crude oil, used for further petrochemical production.

Kpler analyst Zameer Yusof told Bloomberg the move “underscores how far-reaching the latest tranche of EU sanctions are.” He said the advance payment condition likely reflects fears that buyers may back out of deals or that banks could refuse to clear transactions involving sanctioned entities. 

In a weekend statement, Rosneft claimed that the EU’s new measures as “unjustified and illegal.” Meanwhile, Nayara insisted that operations remain normal and said it is “exploring all legal and appropriate avenues” to respond to the situation.

India’s role in Russian crude trade under pressure

India has become one of the largest importers of Russian crude since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As Western buyers turned away, Indian refiners stepped in to process Russian oil, including into diesel and other products that were then exported globally. Until now, Nayara had continued those operations without direct interference from sanctions.

Beijing threatens to respond following sanctions for cooperation with Russia. The European Union has, for the first time, included Chinese banks and companies in a new sanctions package against Russia for the attack on Ukraine.

Beijing’s reaction was immediate and harsh: “China expresses strong dissatisfaction and resolute protest.”

According to a statement from the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, the Chinese side views the 18th sanctions package as an unfriendly act that violates international law, undermines economic relations with the EU, and threatens financial cooperation.

Four Chinese companies were added to the EU blacklist, including two from Hong Kong, Zhu Jiang Shipmanagement and ACE Electronic HK, as well as Wuhan Global Sensor Technology and Shandong ODES Industry from mainland China. The reason: assistance to Russia in circumventing restrictions, supplying technologies and components that can be used in the production of weapons that kill Ukrainians.

“China calls on the EU to immediately stop its wrongful practice of including Chinese enterprises and financial institutions on sanction lists and will take necessary measures to reliably protect the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies,” the statement said.

China’s outrage coincides with preparations for the 25th anniversary China–EU summit, scheduled for 24 July in Beijing. This is the second consecutive time the summit will not be held in Europe as Xi Jinping refused to travel to Brussels, and instead, European leaders will come to China to discuss the most sensitive issues in bilateral relations.

Despite the pressure, Brussels sends a clear signal: sanctions evasion via third countries, including China, will no longer go unanswered.

Previously, US Army Europe and NATO Allied Forces Supreme Commander General Alexus Grynkewich has warned that American and its European allies likely have only a year and a half to prepare for a potential global military conflict with China and Russia. According to Bild, the two dictatorships may launch a coordinated strike in 2027.

On 21 July, French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot came to Kyiv for a two-day visit. After arriving, he immediately headed to the sites hit during the massive overnight attack on the Lukianivka district.

“Shelters themselves are no longer entirely safe, as the metro station next to me, which serves as a shelter for Kyiv residents, became a target of the attack. It happened at the same time President Zelenskyy, on Saturday morning, declared Ukraine’s readiness to enter new negotiations with Russia,” he emphasized. 

In Kyiv, Foreign Minister Barrot is set to meet with Zelenskyy, new Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, and his counterpart Andrii Sybiha, UkrInform reports. 

During the visit, he will also take part in Ukraine’s Ambassadors Conference and visit the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The facility is still undergoing the restoration of the site after the Russian occupation in 2022 and a Shahed strike, which damaged the protection shield over the plant itself. 

“Our embassy staff, like all Kyiv residents, were forced to seek shelter from 3 AM to 5 AM,” the minister said.

He noted that the wave of attacks struck not only civilian infrastructure but also kindergartens, supermarkets, and residential buildings. Two people were killed in an attack, and a dozen civilians were hospitalized. 

“That’s why the package of mass sanctions adopted at the European level last Thursday is crucial to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin, to raise the cost of this outrageous war, and to compel him to cease fire and engage in talks that will lead to a just and lasting peace,” Barrot stated.

On 18 July, the EU agreed on a new Russia sanctions package, with ambassadors reaching consensus on the bloc’s 18th sanctions round. The round targets key sectors of the Russian economy, including Slovakia and Malta. The restrictions hit energy, the main source of Moscow’s revenues. 

Keith Kellogg got an uncomfortable look at how Western sanctions on Russia are failing. During his visit to Kyiv, the US Special Representative to Ukraine examined Western-made electronics that Ukrainian intelligence pulled from destroyed Russian weapons—the same components fueling attacks on Ukrainian cities.

The exhibition was coordinated by the War&Sanctions portal of the Main Intelligence Directorate, working alongside the Defense Forces of Ukraine and the Kyiv Research Institute of Forensic Expertise. The display featured components extracted from destroyed or captured Russian weaponry by Ukrainian military intelligence personnel.

Among the items presented to Kellogg were Western elements found in Iranian-Russian Shahed kamikaze drones, also known as “geranium” drones, and Russian “gerbera” drones. These weapons systems have been consistently deployed against civilian targets in Ukraine.

But the problem runs deeper than drone components. Ukrainian analysts identified precision microelectronics critical for manufacturing high-accuracy weapons systems. Russia’s defense industry acquired these through what intelligence officials call “gray schemes”—unofficial networks designed to bypass sanctions.

“The international community must strengthen control over compliance with sanctions imposed on Moscow,” said Cipher, a Main Intelligence Directorate serviceman. “Manufacturers should take a more responsible approach to controlling their products in international markets.”

Head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov also warned Kellogg during their meeting in Kyiv that Russia’s war ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine and are projected to last until 2036, including preparations for a major conflict not only against Ukraine but also NATO. 

Earlier, President Zelenskyy highlighted a significant loophole in international sanctions that allows Russia to continue producing its nuclear-capable Oreshnik intercontinental ballistic missiles using Western technology. 

In 2024, Russia increasingly relied on North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles to strike Ukraine, while analysis of missile fragments revealed that these weapons contain significant Western-made electronic components, primarily produced by companies from the US, the Netherlands, the UK, and Switzerland, some manufactured as recently as 2023.

These foreign parts include crucial guidance system circuitry without which the missiles could not function, highlighting that the missiles are reliant on imported Western technology despite sanctions.

Experts believe China acts as an intermediary in supplying these components to North Korea, raising concerns about loopholes in export controls and the illicit trade fueling Russian missile capabilities.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin shows no intention of abandoning his objectives in Ukraine or ending the war. Even under the threat of new sanctions, he appears ready to go to extremes, Foreign Affairs writes. 

Meanwhile, Russia itself is entering a full-fledged economic crisis, something even the Kremlin is now publicly admitting. However, analysts are convinced that Putin still has tools to continue the war, the ones he has so far chosen not to use.

In particular, he could launch a brutal mobilization campaign with harsh penalties for those who refuse to serve. Experts note this would shatter the myth of stability that Putin has carefully built over the years, but destroying Ukraine still takes priority for him.

They point out that after 25 years in power, Putin has created an almost sinister calm in Russia: there is no meaningful political opposition, and public criticism of the government is virtually nonexistent. As a result, Russians are expected to adapt to the new reality.

“Russia’s rise to greatness may be Sisyphean for Putin, but he will go to extreme lengths to avoid defeat. In Ukraine, Putin will risk everything,” the report says. 

Still, the situation does not yet look catastrophic for Ukraine. The territories captured by Russia are not strategically vital for Ukraine’s survival, and all major cities remain out of reach for the Russian military.

Even if Trump ultimately fails to follow through on his own ultimatum, Ukraine continues to receive growing support from Europe.

As the EU ramps up economic pressure, the Kremlin scrambles to downplay sanctions by pushing claims of immunity and resilience. But behind the bravado, top Russian officials are quietly conceding the growing toll on the country’s economy, according to the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian officials claim immunity while signs of economic damage emerge

ISW reported on 18 July that Russian officials are continuing to falsely claim that the European Union’s newest sanctions have no significant impact on the Russian economy. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov alleged for no reason that the EU’s sanctions are illegal, and insisted Russia had already adapted to life under restrictive measures. He stated that the Kremlin would analyze the effects of the latest sanctions package and minimize their impact. Peskov also stated that the sanctions ostensibly ultimately harm those who imposed them.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev responded to the EU’s newest package by asserting that Russia’s stance remains unchanged and that the country’s economy will endure. He went further, threatening to increase strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities — which has already been happening for years. Medvedev declared that Russia must learn to “hate” the EU and what he described as its “Russophobia” as much as its ancestors did. 

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Putin’s Special Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries, echoed similar showy defiance. He claimed that the sanctions hurt Europe more than Russia by closing Russian markets to European businesses and disrupting the continent’s energy supply. Meanwhile, Head of the Russian State Duma Committee on Financial Markets Anatoly Aksakov dismissed the new financial sanctions as insignificant, calling them “just a fluctuation in the air,” since Russian banks were already operating under EU restrictions.

Top Russian ministers admit critical sanctions impact

Despite these bold public statements, ISW highlighted that some senior Russian officials are now quietly admitting that sanctions are taking a toll on the economy. The Moscow Times reported on 17 July that Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev recently told the Russian Federation Council that Western sanctions are making it difficult for Russian oil companies to obtain parts needed to repair refineries.

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NYT: Putin believes Ukraine’s collapse is near — and he’s acting like it

Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina openly stated on 19 June that Russia has “exhausted many of its free resources” since the start of the full-scale invasion and must now search for a new growth model. Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov also acknowledged during SPIEF that the Russian economy stands “on the brink of recession.”

Kremlin relies on evasive schemes to soften sanctions blow

ISW underscored that sanctions evasion through the People’s Republic of China and other third-party networks is now a key pillar of Moscow’s strategy. The Kremlin has built a network of actors designed to bypass Western restrictions, and has started reconfiguring its economic policies and business models to survive sanctions in the long run. However, ISW wrote, hinting on Washington’s hesitation to adopt news sanctions against Russia:

“The EU’s newest sanctions are a positive step, but wider Western compliance and enforcement are necessary to inflict maximum economic pressure on Russia.“

EU’s latest sanctions package delivers economic strike

The EU’s 18th sanctions package, approved on 18 July by the European Council, sharply undercuts Russian oil revenues. It slashes the oil price cap to $47.60 per barrel, bans Nord Stream pipeline transactions, and blacklists 105 more shadow fleet tankers—bringing the total to 444. It also targets entities tied to Rosneft and ends Czechia’s exemption for Russian oil.

Refined products from Russian crude are banned unless processed in select Western countries. Though the Kremlin budgeted for losses, these sanctions are expected to cut far deeper—threatening the third of federal revenue tied to oil.

London and Brussels jointly cut the Kremlin’s oil revenues. The UK government decided to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.60 per barrel after the EU adopted the 18th EU sanctions package on 18 July.

According to Western analysts, Moscow’s oil profits have already dropped by 35% compared to last year. The new lower price cap will further restrict the Kremlin’s financial resources used to fund its aggression against Ukraine.

“The UK and its EU allies are turning the screw on the Kremlin’s war chest by stemming the most valuable funding stream of its illegal war in Ukraine even further,” said UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves.

The official added that this decisive step to lower the crude oil price cap will target Russia’s oil revenues and intensify pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin by exploiting his greatest vulnerability.

London emphasized that the sanctions are intended to punish the aggressor and preserve the stability of the global energy market.

The UK hits a Russian military intelligence unit behind the destruction of the Mariupol Drama Theater with the largest-ever sanctions package in history. It is also responsible for prolonged malicious hybrid operations worldwide. 

“In 2022, Unit 26165, sanctioned today, conducted online reconnaissance to help target missile strikes against Mariupol, including the strike that destroyed the Mariupol Theatre, where hundreds of civilians, including children, were murdered,” says the UK government. 

The restrictions hit three units of Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) and its 18 officers accountable for conducting a sustained campaign of cyberattacks over many years, including attacks inside the UK. 

“The GRU routinely uses cyber and information operations to sow chaos, division and disorder in Ukraine and across the world with devastating real-world consequences,” the UK government said.

Sanctions also target GRU officers responsible for hacking a device of Yulia Skripal, a daughter of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, using the malicious software known as X-Agent. This happened five years prior to the failed attempt by GRU officers to assassinate them with the deadly nerve agent “Novichok” in Salisbury.

Russian operatives have also attempted to disrupt UK media outlets, telecom providers, political and democratic institutions, as well as critical energy infrastructure.

The Kremlin has once again erupted in threats and vitriol. Following the adoption of the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Moscow’s aggression, Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian former president, lashed out, calling European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen a “disgusting old hag” and branding Europeans as “imbeciles.”

“European imbeciles have approved the 18th package of sanctions against our country. There’s no point in writing that it will change Russia’s stance any more than the previous seventeen did,” Medvedev said on social media.

EU agrees on new Russia sanctions package targeting energy and finance

He believes the Russian economy would endure and stated that the destruction of Ukraine would continue.

“Strikes on targets in the so-called Ukraine, including Kyiv, will be carried out with increasing force,” he stressed.

Medvedev then escalated his tirade, launching insults at EU nations including Poland, Germany, France, the Baltic states, and the UK. He urged maximum detachment from the EU, which he claimed is now home to “Brits mired in their own shit.”

He went further, stating that Russians should learn to hate Europeans, just as their ancestors once did.

“Hatred is the most powerful weapon, allowing us to move most effectively toward its opposite—love. Naturally, toward those who deserve it,” he claimed.

Von der Leyen received particular scorn, with Medvedev attempting to mock her medical background.

“I’m not sure she even knows where the heart is. Though it seems she’s always thought with the part of her body she used during her failed medical career,” he said. 

Medvedev’s outburst once again illustrates the tone of official Russian rhetoric amid intensified missile strikes on Ukrainian civilians, Russia’s answer to US President Donald Trump’s recent peace efforts.

Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri says India is ready to meet its oil needs from alternative sources if Russia’s supplies are affected by secondary sanctions, Reuters reports.

US President Donald Trump has recently warned that countries continuing to buy Russian oil could face 100% tariffs if Moscow does not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has also stated that due to the new economic measures, countries, including India, could suffer losses if continue business with Mooscow. 

At the same time, India emphasizes energy security as a priority and says it will make decisions based on market conditions. The head of the Indian Oil Corporation, A.S. Sahni, has stated that if Russian supplies are restricted, the company will revert to traditional import schemes used before the war in Ukraine, when Moscow’s export was lower than 2%. 

So far, some large private refineries, such as Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, continue to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil, which led to an increase in imports from Russia in the first half of 2025.

Despite the restrictions the West has already imposed on Moscow, the Kremlin continues to use its “shadow” fleet. It includes a large group of oil tankers, many of which are old and poorly maintained. 

Earlier, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence said a powerful explosion occurred in the engine room of Russia’s  Vilamoura tanker on 27 June, while it was en route from the Libyan port of Es-Zuwaytina.

It was located about 150 km northeast of Libya’s territorial waters and was carrying approximately 1 million barrels of crude oil. The tanker sailed under the Marshall Islands flag.

The EU may revisit the vote on its 18th sanctions package against Russia as early as 18 July after the bloc’s representatives failed to reach a consensus on Wednesday, 16 July. The deadlock stems from Slovakia’s opposition, which is tied to the European Commission’s gas policy.

“No green light today on Russian sanctions during debate with ambassadors. They may return to the issue on Friday,” reports Rikard Jozwiak from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

The proposed sanctions package reportedly includes:

A “dynamic mechanism” for pricing Russian oil, 15% below the market price, which is approximately $47 per barrel

• A ban on operations involving the Nord Stream gas pipelines,
• Sanctions against a Russian oil refinery operating in India,
• Restrictions on two Chinese banks assisting Moscow in evading sanctions,
• Measures targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” transporting energy resources outside sanctions regimes.

Meanwhile, Estonia has warned it will block the package if the provision to lower the oil price cap is removed, ERR writes.

“We have a very clear position that the oil price cap reduction must be included in this package. We hold a very firm stance on this issue,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna says.

At the same time, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys has expressed hope that pressure on Russia will only intensify, according to Delfi. He has also announced that the country will begin its work on the next 19th sanction package after the 18th is adopted. 

“The next package should follow, and we will continue this process until the Russian war machine either chokes or shuts down due to lack of revenue,” he has noted. 

Unanimity remains the EU’s only path to advancing sanctions policy, and Russia has proven adept at exploiting this vulnerability.

The US is ready to hit the Kremlin with tariffs if peace isn’t reached soon. President Donald Trump has announced that he will impose strict secondary tariffs on Russia and its allies if a peace agreement on Ukraine is not reached within the next 50 days, UNIAN reports. 

He believes the proposed 100% tariff restrictions could serve as a decisive lever of pressure on Moscow.

In addition, Washington will supply Ukraine with 17 Patriot air defense systems, some of which are expected to arrive within days. The countries that agreed to transfer the systems will receive replacements from the US The coordination of deliveries will be overseen by Matthew Whitaker, the US representative to NATO, in cooperation with the Alliance.

Trump has also agreed with the EU on a joint program to supply weapons to Ukraine. Production will remain US-based, but the financial burden will fall largely on EU countries.

The US president has also recognized the bravery of the Ukrainians resisting Russia’s massive strikes on a daily basis. According to Trump, Russia continues targeting civilian infrastructure, not just military targets, destroying cities, power grids, and residential areas, posing a long-term humanitarian crisis for Ukraine’s population.

He has also voiced disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin, from whom he had expected a readiness for a ceasefire two months ago. However, the Kremlin has continued its aggressive course, prompting the US to prepare a powerful economic response.

Earlier, reports emerged that Trump was considering providing Ukraine with powerful air-launched JASSM cruise missiles.

With a range of up to 370 km, a 450 kg warhead, and high-precision targeting, the JASSM could change the dynamics of Ukraine’s defense capabilities, especially amid Russia’s summer offensive.

Ukraine is strengthening its alliance with the US amid escalating Russian attacks. On 14 July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Keith Kellogg, US presidential envoy, to discuss concrete steps toward peace, with a focus on enhancing air defense, expanding joint weapons production, and increasing sanctions pressure on Russia.

“We are grateful to the US president for all his messages and truly firm decisions to resume support. We’ve made some very positive decisions for both our countries,” Zelenskyy said.

The talks came against the backdrop of intensified Russian assaults, over 330 missiles, 5,000 drones, and 5,000 aerial bombs launched in June alone, making air defense a top priority during the meeting.

Key topics included:

• Strengthening Ukraine’s air defense systems
• Joint drone production
• Direct US purchases of Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles
• Joint weapons procurement with European partners

Zelensky also emphasized the importance of new US sanctions legislation, particularly the bipartisan bill by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, which has already gained support from more than 80 senators.

He thanked Keith Kellogg for his visit, US President Donald Trump, and the American people for their continued support.

If not for a Spanish company, Russia could have run out of new artillery barrels. Barcelona-based Forward Technical Trade SL supplied at least one radial forging machine to Russia, initially built by the Austrian firm Gesellschaft für Fertigungstechnik und Maschinenbau (GFM), the Insider reports. 

The equipment, valued at $1.3 million, weighs 110 tons and was manufactured in 1983. The transfer reportedly occurred via a Hong Kong-based intermediary, Scorpion’s Holding Group Limited.

GFM denies any direct business ties with either the Spanish supplier or the Hong Kong firm. However, the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) confirms that GFM machines are crucial for barrel manufacturing in Russia — and that the Russian defense industry remains entirely dependent on them.

According to US-based expert Pavel Luzin, Russia cannot produce these forging machines domestically. Facing severe shortages, Russian forces have already begun “cannibalizing” old Soviet stockpiles, endangering frontline performance.

Earlier, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence reported that the West still had not sanctioned 70 Russian companies behind the production of missiles that struck Kyiv’s largest children’s cancer hospital. 

The Okhmatdyt strike occurred the same day Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 8-9 July 2024, calling for a peaceful resolution to the war. While the two leaders spoke of peace, Russian missiles rained down across Ukraine, killing 47 people, including 33 in Kyiv.

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A wave of covert explosions striking tankers tied to Russian energy exports appears to be the work of Ukrainian special forces, according to a detailed analysis by Tom Sharpe OBE in The Telegraph. While no official confirmation has been issued, the precision and pattern of the attacks strongly suggest a coordinated sabotage campaign.

“Someone – and bluntly, that someone is the Ukrainian special forces – is making highly effective use of these weapons,” Sharpe writes.

Sanctions, oil, and the shadow fleet

Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the West imposed sweeping sanctions and a $60-per-barrel oil price cap to choke off funding for the war. In response, Moscow has leaned on a vast and opaque “shadow fleet” of aging tankers operating under obscure ownership and dubious flags of convenience. These vessels now carry more than 60% of Russia’s crude exports, helping sustain the oil revenues that fund Putin’s war.

Despite sanctions, the fleet continues to operate, with the US, EU, and UK stepping up enforcement through ship sanctions, port bans, and insurance crackdowns—efforts that so far have had limited effect.

Limpet mines: Targeted maritime sabotage

Military analysts and investigators believe the attacks were carried out using limpet mines, specifically Russian-made BPM-1 or BPM-2 models. These mines are designed to be manually attached to ship hulls by divers or delivered via unmanned underwater systems—tools of precision sabotage, not broad sea denial.

Their use indicates a high level of operational expertise, likely involving rebreather diving, manual or sonar-based navigation, and possibly mini-submersible delivery systems.

Sixth incident: Eco Wizard explosion in Ust-Luga

The most recent incident occurred on 6 July, when the Eco Wizard tanker was rocked by two explosions while loading ammonia at the Russian port of Ust-Luga. Though not a direct gas shipment, Sharpe notes that “ammonia is made of natural gas,” making it, in effect, a form of energy export.

This marks the sixth such attack this year. Previous explosions targeted tankers near Libya, Italy, Türkiye, and again in Ust-Luga. Many of the affected vessels had previously anchored near Malta and Libya—regions frequently linked to Russia’s shadow fleet operations.

Legal constraints and the grey zone at sea

Western powers have struggled to interdict the shadow fleet due to legal protections under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which enshrines freedom of navigation. Efforts to board or inspect suspect vessels under environmental or flag-related pretexts have had only limited success.

Sharpe also notes that many of these tankers are now accompanied by Russian warships or warplanes, raising the stakes and making direct intervention politically risky.

Strategic shift in maritime warfare

The suspected use of limpet mines by Ukrainian forces signals a strategic escalation in the maritime dimension of the war. These covert, deniable strikes target the infrastructure sustaining Russia’s war economy—without crossing into open confrontation.

As Sharpe concludes, this is a clear demonstration of “highly effective” unconventional warfare, exploiting vulnerabilities the West has yet to fully address.