Russia and Belarus have begun their joint military drills Zapad-2025, simulating missile attacks and nuclear scenarios. Analysts warn the exercises serve as both a rehearsal for war and a signal to NATO, echoing Soviet-era shows of force.

Missile launches and nuclear decision-making

Zapad-2025 started on 12 September and is scheduled to last until 16 September on Belarusian and Russian territory. One of the declared goals is to conduct missile launches, including tests of the Oreshnik system— a missile that Putin claims to be “unstoppable.”

The official theme is framed as the “application of groupings of troops in the interests of ensuring the military security of the Union State,” — Putin’s long-stalled project to absorb Belarus into a single country.

This year’s exercise will also simulate decision-making around the use of nuclear weapons and the deployment of nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles that Moscow has promised to transfer to Minsk.

While Russia has not disclosed exact numbers, Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed last December that “several dozen” tactical nuclear weapons were already on Belarusian soil.

According to the Chief of the General Staff of Belarus, the Zapad-2025 exercises on Belarusian territory will be held at three training grounds located in the Vitebsk, Minsk, and Hrodna regions.

Investigators from Skhemy tracked the buildup of Russian military equipment and the deployment of additional infrastructure in these areas, allowing them to localize the sites of the upcoming drills.

While Belarusian authorities have not officially disclosed the exact locations, Lukashenka confirmed that Zapad-2025 will take place at training grounds near the city of Barysaw.

Polish and NATO concerns grow

The drills follow the latest Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, incidents that Warsaw says had been prepared for months. In anticipation of Zapad-2025, Poland has reinforced its eastern border with around 40,000 troops.

“Poland has been preparing for the Zapad manoeuvres for many months,” Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk told Polsat News.

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that “very aggressive scenarios” will be practiced, recalling that earlier Zapad exercises preceded Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.

NATO radars and allied aircraft are on high alert, with Lithuania estimating that around 30,000 Russian and Belarusian troops will take part.

Signal to NATO and Ukraine

While Moscow insists the drills are defensive, Western analysts see Zapad as both a rehearsal for potential offensives and a political message. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the exercise could be “a cover” for further aggression against Ukraine’s western neighbors.

Even if smaller in scale than Zapad-2021, this year’s drills underscore Russia’s reliance on Belarus as a forward base, its willingness to rattle NATO with nuclear signalling, and its long-standing tradition of using military theatre — and now network warfare simulations — as geopolitical intimidation.

Poland has reinforced its eastern border with around 40,000 troops.

“Poland has been preparing for the Zapad manoeuvres for many months,” Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk told Polsat News.

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that “very aggressive scenarios” will be practiced, recalling that earlier Zapad exercises preceded Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.

NATO radars and allied aircraft are on high alert, and Lithuania estimates that around 30,000 Russian and Belarusian troops will participate.

Historical context of Zapad

The Zapad (“West”) exercises date back to the Soviet era of the 1970s, when they were first designed to showcase nuclear strike capabilities and consolidate the unity of the Warsaw Pact.

Zapad-77 simulated nuclear strikes against NATO, while Zapad-81 became the largest Soviet military exercise ever, involving up to 150,000 troops and testing the SS-20 ballistic missile.

Declassified US intelligence reports from the 1980s described Zapad as one of the USSR’s most important military drills, aimed at testing wartime command structures and operational coordination across the Warsaw Pact.

Revived in 1999 under Vladimir Putin, Zapad was incorporated into a four-year cycle of large-scale Russian military exercises. Later versions integrated lessons from Russia’s wars in Crimea, Syria, and Ukraine, such as the use of drones for reconnaissance, tactical missile strikes, and counter-insurgency operations in urban areas.

The Veyshnoria precedent and hybrid “texting technologies”

The exercises have often included invented scenarios aimed at signalling to NATO and shaping perceptions abroad.

In Zapad-2017, Russia and Belarus staged combat against the fictional state of Veyshnoria— a “hostile” territory carved out of western Belarus, close to NATO borders. Analysts saw the scenario as a thinly veiled rehearsal for operations against Lithuania, Poland, or Ukraine, masked under the guise of fighting separatism.

Zapad-2025 builds on this legacy, introducing new layers of digital and communications warfare.

The discovery this summer of Russian drones using Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards reveals how Moscow tests invasion routes before using them. Since late 2023, Russia has equipped its Shahed attack drones with cellular modems—first Ukrainian SIM cards, then expanding to NATO countries.

In July, investigators found Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards in Russian drone wreckage shot down over Ukraine. Drones use cellular towers to triangulate navigation and transmit real-time targeting data while appearing as domestic mobile traffic.

Two months later, on September 9-10—just two days before Zapad-2025 began—Russian drones using Polish SIM cards violated Polish airspace. NATO fighters shot down at least four of 19 drones that crossed into Poland during Russia’s massive 415-drone attack on Ukraine.

Just as Veyshnoria was a fictional enemy created to test ground scenarios, Russia’s hijacking of local telecom networks signals Moscow’s intent to blend conventional and hybrid tactics in future conflict.