On 19 September, the Polish Border Guard reported that two Russian fighter jets conducted a low flyover above Petrobaltic, Poland’s only offshore oil and gas platform in the Baltic Sea, TVP World writes. 

Unlike Turkiye, which shot down a Russian Su-24 in 2015 for violating its airspace, European NATO members respond to such actions only by strengthening patrols and deploying additional forces under Operation Eastern Sentry.

Poland also did not down the jets over its oil platform. 

NATO on alert

Polish Armed Forces and other services were immediately informed of the violation. On 10 September, Poland shot down 4 out of 19 Russian drones in its airspace with support from NATO aircraft. On the same night, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed more than 380 drones by mobile fire groups across the country. 

Moscow denied targeting Poland after drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that no targets on Polish territory were intended. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the EU and NATO “accuse Russia of provocations daily,” and that Western institutions “lack evidence to support their accusations.”

A week later, Warsaw recorded another night of drone provocations from Russia and Belarus. The country’s Border Guard Service reported heightened activity of the enemy targets attempting to violate its airspace. 

Escalation in the Baltic Region

On the same day, three Russian MiG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace without authorization. They remained for about 12 minutes before being intercepted by Italian F-35 jets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called these actions part of a systematic Russian campaign against Europe and NATO: “Small steps at first, and eventually major losses.”

Estonia on Friday summoned the Russian Federation’s chargé d’affaires to protest a violation of its airspace, the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

Three Russian MIG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland without permission and remained for approximately 12 minutes, officials said.

The jets reportedly flew near Estonia’s capital city, Tallinn, before NATO’s Italian F-35 jets scrambled to intercept them. 

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal later announced that the country is invoking NATO’s Article 4 over the incident. Article 4 of the NATO treaty allows any member state to request consultations with allies when it perceives a threat to its territorial integrity, political independence, or security. Poland took the same step earlier this month following drone breaches into its airspace on 10 September.

“Russia has already violated Estonia’s airspace four times this year, which in itself is unacceptable. But today’s incursion, involving three fighter aircraft entering our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said. 

“Russia’s increasingly extensive testing of boundaries and growing aggressiveness must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure,” he added

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas called the incursion an “extremely dangerous provocation,” adding that “Putin is testing the West’s resolve.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the Russian incursion as part of a broader campaign of destabilization against Europe and NATO. He described the violations as “not accidental” and called for a coordinated response from the international community.

“Russian destabilization is spreading to new countries and directions. They are using all tools, from interference in political processes to violations of airspace,” Zelenskyy said, urging Europe, the United States, and the G7 to act decisively.

He stressed that sustained international pressure, particularly through sanctions, combined with a strong Ukrainian military, is essential to increase Russia’s losses in the war and defend against further aggression.

The incident follows heightened tensions on NATO’s eastern borders, with recent Russian drone breaches into its airspace, including Poland and Romania earlier in September. In response to these provocations, NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry on September 12 to bolster defense along its eastern flank. 

Poland is preparing a record defense budget amid Russian drone attacks. On 18 September, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that in 2026, the country’s defense spending will reach a record $55 billion, which is 4.8% of GDP, ArmyInform reports. 

He emphasized that this is an all-time high for free Poland, though even this increase does not fully meet the country’s security needs. 

“Between 2022 and 2026, the budget has tripled. Over four years, we have tripled spending on Polish state security, and we will continue to increase it because the needs are even greater,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

Poland urges NATO to accelerate defense spending

The Polish defense minister stressed that NATO allies must quickly reach 5% of GDP in defense spending.

“Within the next three to four years—by 2030—NATO countries should spend about 5%. We are talking 3.5% on ‘hard’ weapons and 1.5% on infrastructure,” he explained.

Poland’s security tied to Ukraine

Kosiniak-Kamysz made these statements during his visit to Kyiv on 18 September, where he met his counterpart, Denys Shmyhal.

“Poland’s security line runs along the front between Ukraine and Russia. I fully understand this, and for many who try to forget, it needs to be reminded,” the Polish defense minister added.

Joint UAV group to coordinate defense

Meanwhile, Poland and Ukraine are creating a joint operational group for unmanned aerial systems (UAVs), including representatives from both countries’ armed forces. The group will serve as a platform for coordinating and developing joint initiatives in UAV technology.

Ukraine and Poland will sign a new agreement focused on drone operations and military cooperation, RMF24 reports. The pact, announced during an unannounced visit by Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz to Kyiv on 18 September, will include drone crew training and draw heavily on Ukraine’s battlefield experience.

Poland and Ukraine to cooperate on drone warfare under new agreement

RMF24 says that Kosiniak-Kamysz stated in Kyiv that the two countries will sign an agreement covering cooperation between their defense ministries and joint efforts in mastering drone operations.

“We will sign an agreement on cooperation between the ministries, and also on acquiring skills in drone operations,” he said.

According to Kosiniak-Kamysz, Polish troops will work with their Ukrainian counterparts to develop skills in using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). He added that another focus will be improving Polish forces’ capabilities based on the experience gained by Ukraine during its war against Russian forces.

“Another issue is improving the skills of our troops based on experience from Ukraine,” the minister said.

He emphasized that implementing battlefield lessons is vital not just for Poland’s military reforms, but for NATO as a whole.

“The implementation of lessons from the new battlefield is crucial for the transformation of the Polish Armed Forces and, in general, for the transformation of NATO,” he said.

Kosiniak-Kamysz also highlighted the importance of the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training, and Education Center (JATEC) located in Bydgoszcz. He said it is “the only institution that tangibly connects NATO and Ukraine,” and noted it will be central to further defense integration and drone warfare development.

Polish minister acknowledges tensions but stresses shared strategic goal

Kosiniak-Kamysz acknowledged that tensions occasionally arise between the two countries but stressed that the broader goal of confronting the real threat must remain the focus.

“I am aware of the emotions that sometimes grow between us, between Poland and Ukraine, but they cannot obscure our strategic goal. The enemy is elsewhere. He cannot be sought in ourselves or between us,” he said.

Senior Kremlin officials, likely with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval, pushed Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak out of his position after repeated clashes over the war in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 17 September. Russian state media outlet RBK stated that two sources familiar with the situation confirmed Kozak “resigned” from his post over the weekend of 13 to 14 September. RBK noted he is now considering business offers following his exit.

The allegedly dissenting voice in 2022

Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnov reported on 17 September that sources in Moscow said Kozak “voluntarily” left his position. Dubnov highlighted that Kozak was the only official at the 21 February 2022 Security Council meeting who opposed launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian journalist Alexey Venediktov also confirmed this account.

Kozak reportedly attempted to negotiate with Ukraine at the start of the war, proposing that Kyiv renounce NATO membership. Putin allegedly rejected the talks because he also wanted to annex Ukrainian territory, according to ISW.

Collapse of influence inside Kremlin

The New York Times reported on 10 August that both Western and Russian sources said Kozak’s influence declined sharply in recent months, aaccording to ISW. He reportedly urged Putin to stop fighting in Ukraine, begin peace talks, and reduce the power of Russia’s security services. Those disagreements placed him at odds with Putin and his allies, including Kremlin Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko.

Putin signed a decree on 29 August abolishing two Kremlin departments Kozak supervised: the Department for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries and the Department for Cross-Border Cooperation. Analysts assess this was likely in preparation for Kozak’s removal. Reports on 17 September that he is considering business positions refuted earlier claims that he was a candidate for Presidential Plenipotentiary Representative in the Northwestern Federal DIstrict, showing the Kremlin opted to remove him entirely from state structures.

Reports indicate Kiriyenko has also recently assumed control of the Kremlin’s Moldova portfolio. This handover consolidates Kiriyenko’s power and responsibilities within the Russian Presidential Administration.

“Putin’s likely decision to push an established senior Kremlin official from his inner circle after expressing a desire to end the war in Ukraine further indicates that Putin and his advisors are coalescing around their commitment to continue the war in Ukraine and around Putin’s maximalist war demands,” ISW assessed.

Ukraine says it is ready to train NATO partners in downing Russian drones after recent incursions into Poland and Romania. Kyiv stresses that Europe must urgently learn from Ukraine’s battlefield-tested drone warfare or risk falling behind Moscow. 

NATO skies breached

Russian drones have repeatedly violated NATO airspace in recent weeks. Poland shot down at least three Geran drones with Russian Cyrillic markings on 7 September, while Romania confirmed a drone incursion near the village of Chilia Veche during a Russian strike on the Danube.

“These are not accidents,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned. “It is an obvious expansion of Russia’s war.”

Romania summoned Moscow’s ambassador, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk ordered ground-based air defenses to the highest alert. NATO allies scrambled F-16s, F-35s, and AWACS surveillance planes in response.

Ukraine offers to train NATO in drone defense

Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force Command, said Kyiv is ready to share hard-won expertise in shooting down Russian drones.

“The type of missiles used to shoot them down is their business. But they don’t have as much experience as Ukraine,” Ihnat said.

He proposed hosting training in Lviv or Kraków, noting that Polish and Romanian jets have struggled to intercept the “Gerans” — Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones, which he called “not an easy target, especially for fighter aircraft.”

“For over 40 minutes, two fighter jets couldn’t do anything. They tried, but lost a lot of time,” Ihnat said, recalling a recent Romanian encounter.

Ukraine’s drone ecosystem: speed, scale, urgency

Over 3.5 years of the all-out war, Ukraine has built a unique drone warfare ecosystem — a blend of military innovation, civilian expertise, and private-sector production. From garage workshops to defense tech startups, more than 200 UAV types have been developed, with Ukraine now streamlining to 20–30 effective models.

Operations like Spiderweb, where 117 drones struck four Russian bases, destroying dozens of bombers, illustrate both the precision and mass Ukraine brings to the battlefield. This “War DevOps” culture—borrowing from software development—lets Ukraine redesign, test, and deploy new drone variants in weeks, sometimes days, far faster than NATO procurement cycles.

Lessons Europe cannot ignore

In these consequences, ignoring Ukraine’s experience might be a strategic error. Drone incursions into Poland and Romania show that Europe’s air defense remains vulnerable. Kyiv’s bottom-up innovation culture—where frontline pilots, instructors, and civilian volunteers constantly refine tactics—offers a model NATO allies should adopt.

Ukraine is already in talks with Denmark, Norway, and Germany to share knowledge, and Zelenskyy has openly proposed a “mega-deal” with the US to transfer Ukraine’s advanced drones in exchange for American weapons.

During one of his visits to the White House, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy pitched President Donald Trump on a $50 billion deal to supply and co-produce drones with the US. Zelenskyy told journalists that the program, which hasn’t been finalized, would deliver 10 million unmanned systems annually over five years.

The Institute for the Study of War reported on 15 September that Russian officials are intensifying threats against NATO member states following recent drone incursions into Poland, with top Kremlin figures warning of direct confrontation over Western support for Ukraine.

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 15 September that a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine permitting NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones would “mean only one thing – a war between NATO and Russia,” according to ISW analysis of his Russian- and English-language channels.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explicitly said on 15 September that “NATO is at war with Russia” and “NATO is de facto involved in” the war in Ukraine by providing support to Ukraine.

The threats target European financial measures against Russia. Medvedev warned that Russia will “go after” EU states providing Ukraine with loans backed by Russian assets in “all possible international and national courts.” He added that “in some cases, [Russia will] bypass court procedure” – what ISW characterizes as a possible threat to use kinetic action against EU states.

Peskov condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets, stating that “such steps will not go unnoticed,” according to the analysis.

ISW assesses that these statements aim to prevent NATO and European states from defending themselves and Ukraine against Russian provocations, including the 9-10 September drone incursion into Poland.

ISW notes that Kremlin officials routinely invoke narratives similar to those Russia used to justify its Ukraine invasions – including territorial claims and false characterizations of Euromaidan as a “coup” – when threatening neighboring states, including NATO members.

Meanwhile, Russian and Belarusian forces continued Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on 15 September, implementing tactical lessons from Ukraine operations, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Forces conducted training at Borisovsky and 227th Combined Arms training grounds in Minsk Oblast, Kaliningrad Oblast, and the Barents Sea.

The Russian MoD confirmed that Leningrad Military District elements practiced deploying nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missile systems in Kaliningrad Oblast, which borders NATO members Lithuania and Poland. The nuclear-capable Arkhangelsk submarine practiced launching missile strikes against naval targets, while Northern Fleet elements struck mock enemy submarines in the Barents Sea.

Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bombers patrolled “the neutral waters of the Barents Sea” for four hours, the MoD reported. The Belarusian MoD stated that representatives from 23 countries, including the United States, Hungary, and Türkiye, observed the exercises.

ISW highlights that Russian and Belarusian forces practiced maneuvering with all-terrain vehicles to reduce crossing times in open areas and decrease vulnerability to first-person view drone strikes – tactics developed from Ukraine battlefield experience. The exercises allow Russia to institutionalize combat lessons outside active combat zones while improving joint interoperability with Belarus.

The analysis warns that Russia is using Zapad-2025 to practice potential kinetic provocations against NATO states. Nuclear capability exercises occurred in Barents Sea waters bordering Norway and in Kaliningrad Oblast near Lithuania and Poland.

EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius said on 15 September that 40% of European flights face jamming – likely from Russia. ISW reported that Russian officials previously used Kaliningrad for GPS jamming across Europe and reportedly constructed a military-grade Circularly Disposed Antenna Array 25 kilometers from the Polish border.

The report concludes that Zapad-2025 provides Russia and Belarus a platform to refine escalation techniques that serve as pressure against NATO.

Sky News reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin is trying to trick US President Donald Trump in order to escape sanctions, while NATO continues to face Russian provocations.

Putin “doing everything to avoid sanctions”

Speaking to Sky News at the Presidential Palace in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said the Russian leader is exploiting diplomacy with Trump to buy time in order to “be better prepared.” He argued that Putin’s aim is not peace, but to stop the United States from imposing further penalties. According to him,

“He’s doing everything he can to avoid sanctions, to prevent US and Trump from putting sanctions on him, and if you keep postponing applying sanctions any further, then the Russians will be better prepared.”

Zelenskyy warned that Putin seeks to escape isolation, describing the Alaska summit last month as a tool for the Kremlin to gain international visibility. He said,

“He should have received a setback in this war and stop, but instead, he received de-isolation. He got the photos with President Trump. He received public dialogue, and I think this opens the doors for Putin into some other summits and formats.”

“He understands only the language of force”

The Ukrainian president stressed that Moscow will not be persuaded by arguments or negotiations. Instead, he said Russia’s leader responds only to strength.

“He understands force. That’s his language. That is the language he understands,” Zelenskyy told Sky News, calling on Europe and the United States to act quicker.

He added that while sanctions are in place, they are not enough to stop Russia’s war.

Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of not giving Putin “space,” warning that every delay in sanctions strengthens Moscow’s position. He argued that Western hesitation risks leaving Russia better prepared for further aggression.

Norway has established Camp Jomsborg, one of the largest Norwegian military camps abroad, in the forests of southeastern Poland to train Ukrainian soldiers with Norwegian instructors, NRK reported on 15 September.

The camp, built from scratch starting this summer, currently houses hundreds of Norwegian military personnel and has begun receiving its first groups of Ukrainian trainees – experienced combat veterans from the front lines.

“They are at war. There are drones and artillery strikes. There is close combat and firefights daily. We try to recreate that, so we follow the principle ‘train as you fight,'” a Norwegian Defense instructor told NRK.

The training focuses on realistic combat simulations, with the first module addressing stress management in combat conditions. During one exercise observed by NRK, a camouflaged soldier crouched against a pine tree with wide-open eyes while Ukrainian soldiers around him slapped his cheeks, struggling to make contact. White smoke drifted between the trees as explosions echoed through the forest.

“We must prepare soldiers as well as possible so they survive at the front,” Ukrainian brigade instructor “Darius” told NRK.

Darius, now 23, was studying international politics in Kyiv when Russia launched its full-scale invasion three and a half years ago. He has since fought in Zaporizhzhia, Bakhmut – nicknamed “the meat grinder” before it fell in spring 2023 – and currently serves at the front in Kharkiv.

The camp is part of Operation Legio, led by Norway and including all Nordic countries, the Baltic states, and Poland. The operation encompasses both weapons deliveries and soldier training.

According to Brigadier Atle Molde, chief of Operation Legio, this marks the first time Norway has led an international operation abroad.

The exact location of Camp Jomsborg remains classified, but thousands of pine trees have been felled to make room for tents and shooting ranges. Construction equipment operates continuously between tents and containers across the sprawling site.

Ukrainian instructors help design the training programs based on current battlefield conditions. “We contribute by being a testing ground where we can test all possible weapons systems,” Darius explained about the Ukrainian battlefield.

Logistics presents one of the biggest challenges, according to Darius. Equipment and weapons must be carried on foot for many kilometers, leading Ukrainians to experiment with unmanned vehicles for supply delivery.

“Soldiers must stay at their positions for two to three months,” he said. “Getting them out is extremely dangerous. Most of our losses occur when people are traveling to or from the front line.”

The training program includes tactics, trench warfare, and extensive drone operations for both surveillance and attacks. “We need a safe place to train where Russian missiles and attack drones cannot reach us,” Darius noted.

Knowledge exchange flows both ways. Ukrainian instructors provide Norwegian personnel with insights into front-line challenges and emerging battlefield trends.

The Norwegian stress management instructor described the impact of working with Ukrainian soldiers: “You notice there’s a bit more seriousness in the room when you’re teaching soldiers who come straight from the front and have been in sharp combat actions just days before arriving here. You know that what you’re teaching has a direct impact on those guys when they return to battle.”

Camp capacity will vary depending on training type – fewer for specialized courses, more for basic military education. When completed, the facility will accommodate several hundred Ukrainian soldiers.

Recent weeks have been marked by high-level politics, including conversations between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and summits in China where Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un were invited. European leaders have emphasized strengthening cooperation in supporting Ukraine, with European support now at record levels.

Molde acknowledged Russian interest in monitoring camp activities but dismissed immediate attack threats: “A direct attack on a NATO country where we are now is a very big red line to cross. So I don’t consider that a very big threat.”

Following NRK’s visit, several drones have entered Polish and Romanian airspace on multiple occasions. Russia was accused of deliberately sending drones into Polish airspace, which the country denied. According to the Defense Ministry, these incidents have not affected Camp Jomsborg activities.

Darius expressed concern about potential erosion of allied support, noting shortages of ammunition, equipment, and soldiers. “I hope for good news, but our mission is to do the job ourselves.”

American military officers attended the Russian-Belarusian joint military exercise West-2025 in Belarus on 15 September, where they were personally met by Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, Reuters reported.

Khrenin called the visit of the American military a “surprise” and made an unusually open offer to the officers.

“We will show whatever is of interest for you. Whatever you want. You can go there and see, talk to people,” the minister told the American officers, according to Reuters.

The Belarusian Defense Ministry released video footage showing two uniformed US officers thanking Khrenin for the invitation and shaking his hand. The American representatives declined to speak with reporters.

According to Reuters, the presence of American officers represents the latest sign of warming relations between Washington and Minsk. The Americans were among representatives from 23 countries observing the exercises, including two other NATO member states – Türkiye and Hungary.

The West-2025 exercise began on 12 September at training grounds in both Russia and Belarus, occurring during heightened tensions with NATO. The maneuvers started two days after Poland shot down Russian drones that had crossed into its airspace.

The warming of US-Belarus relations follows recent diplomatic contacts. Trump representative John Coale visited Minsk last week for talks with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Following those negotiations, Lukashenko agreed to release 52 prisoners from jails, including journalists and political opponents.

In exchange, the United States announced sanctions relief for Belarus’s national airline Belavia, allowing it to service and purchase components for its fleet, which includes Boeing aircraft.

According to Coale, Trump wants to reopen the US embassy in Belarus, normalize ties, and revive the economic and trade relationship. Trump has been cultivating closer ties with Lukashenko, who regularly holds talks with Putin, as part of efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine. Last week, Trump sent Lukashenko a hand-signed letter through Coale.

The West-2025 exercises are scheduled to run from 12-16 September 2025, in Belarus. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had earlier warned of possible threats from Belarusian territory under cover of summer military exercises. Belarus subsequently announced it would move the main maneuvers deeper into the country to “reduce tensions.”

Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski has characterized Russia’s drone incursion into Polish airspace as a calculated test by the Kremlin to measure NATO’s response through incremental escalations without triggering full-scale war.

Radosław Sikorski confirmed that while the drones entering Poland carried no explosives, they were capable of bearing ammunition. “Interestingly, they were all duds, which suggests to me that Russia tried to test us without starting a war,” Sikorski told the Guardian in Kyiv.

The incursion occurred during Russia’s massive 10 September assault on Ukraine, when Moscow launched over 400 drones and more than 40 cruise and ballistic missiles. Nineteen Russian drones crossed into Polish territory, flying directly from Belarus rather than straying from Ukraine operations.

Poland scrambled F-35s and F-16s in response, marking the first time Polish forces deployed airborne weapons against unmanned vehicles. Despite aircraft deployment, Polish forces intercepted only three or four of the 19 drones, with some traveling hundreds of miles into Polish territory.

Sikorski dismissed suggestions that Polish air defenses were unprepared for the incursion. “The drones didn’t reach their targets and there was minor damage to property, nobody was hurt. If it happened in Ukraine, by Ukrainian definitions, that would be regarded as a 100% success,” he said.

The incident triggered NATO’s Article 4, requiring member states to consult when any ally faces threats to territorial integrity. However, NATO decided not to treat the deliberate drone incursion as an attack. The alliance announced Friday it would deploy more jets to the eastern flank to protect against future drone attacks.

Romania became the second NATO member to report a Russian drone incursion within days, scrambling two F-16 fighter jets Saturday to monitor the situation. The country’s defense ministry condemned Russia’s actions, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas describing them as unacceptable.

Romania summoned Moscow’s ambassador Vladimir Lipaev to protest what it called an “unacceptable and irresponsible act, which constitutes a violation of sovereignty.” The foreign ministry stated that “such recurring incidents contribute to the escalation and amplification of threats to regional security.”

Germany’s foreign minister Johann Wadephul called the Romanian incident “yet another unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of a close partner in the EU and Nato.”

Sikorski said Poland’s response would have been “much tougher” if the attack had caused injuries or deaths, though he declined to elaborate on future scenarios.

The Polish foreign minister rejected suggestions by Donald Trump that the incursion “could have been a mistake,” citing the scale of the operation.

“You can believe that one or two veer off target, but 19 mistakes in one night, over seven hours, sorry, I don’t believe it,” he said.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the incursion brought Poland closer to military war “than at any time since the second world war.”

Polish anti-drone teams will receive training from Ukrainian operators to defend against future attacks, Sikorski announced. 

Training will occur at a NATO center in Poland rather than Ukraine for safety reasons. “This is something that the public and the governments in the west need urgently to integrate in their thinking … that it is the Ukrainians who will be training us how to stand up to Russia, not the other way around,” Sikorski added.

At a Kyiv conference, Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg said the US president was becoming “exasperated” with Putin but cautioned European leaders not to push Trump too hard. “One thing I would advise anyone who is working with President Trump – do not put him in a position where he thinks he’s being used, that is probably the worst place you can be with him,” Kellogg said.

Sikorski expressed hope Trump would receive the Nobel peace prize if he achieved “a fair peace” involving “Ukraine within defensible borders and a Ukraine that is integrating with the west.”

Twenty-six countries pledged at a Paris meeting to contribute to a postwar security mission for Ukraine, with some offering ground troops. European countries have discussed providing Ukraine “article 5-like” guarantees after a peace settlement to prevent future Russian attacks.

However, Sikorski warned against unrealistic security guarantees.

“Security guarantees are meant to deter a potential adversary … So what we are saying is that if there is some kind of peace, the next time Russia tries anything against Ukraine, we might go to war with Russia. Now I find that not very credible. Because if you want to go war with Russia, you can do it today and I see no volunteers. And there is nothing more dangerous in international relations than giving a guarantee that is not credible,” he said.

Moscow bares its teeth on the NATO border, Defense Express reports. In the Belarusian city of Grodno, near the Gozhsky training ground, a new Russian BTR-22 armored personnel carrier was spotted. It is involved in the joint Russia-Belarus exercises Zapad-2025. 

Deliberate “leak” of photos

According to the experts, the vehicle’s geolocation on Kirova Street was identified by the Telegram channel Military Journal. They suggest the BTR-22 photo may have been deliberately released by Russia, signaling strength to Poland, alongside related events:

• incursions of Russian Gerbera drones into Polish airspace;
• deployment of two Iskander missile launchers in Kaliningrad Oblast. 

“Budget Boomerang”

The BTR-22 was first unveiled at the Army-2023 forum. Its unofficial nickname is “Budget Boomerang”, as it is a simplified modification of the BTR-82A. Even Russian sources admitted the vehicle lags 20 years behind modern standards, making it essentially a failed attempt to “reimagine” the old BTR-87 design.

Belarusian contrast

Experts note that in 2025, Belarus finally adopted its own Volat V-2 APC after a 15-year delay. The Russian BTR-22’s appearance in Belarus is seen more as a political propaganda signal than a real enhancement of allied combat capabilities.

Russia asks Turkiye to return S-400 systems amid battlefield losses and effective Ukrainian drone strikes, Nefes reports. 

Moscow seeks to replenish its air defense stock

According to media reports, Russia approached Turkiye with a proposal to return two S-400 systems, purchased by Ankara in 2017 for $2.5 billion and delivered in 2019.

The reason — a shortage of equipment in Russian stockpiles after battlefield losses, where Ukrainian forces actively destroy Russian air defense systems, including S-400s.

Turkiye is considering the proposal

Turkish outlet Nefes reports that Ankara views the proposal “positively”, but has not officially confirmed readiness to finalize a deal. The S-400 systems are not integrated with NATO, their missiles are already halfway through their service life, and the equipment requires maintenance, creating additional costs for Turkiye.

Impact on international deliveries and allies

Due to the S-400 shortage, Russia is postponing delivery of similar systems to India until 2026–2027. Demand for such systems from third countries is rising, strengthening the Kremlin’s urgency to get the S-400s back from Turkiye as soon as possible.

Romanian authorities issued an alert on Saturday for the northern area of Tulcea County after a Russian drone was detected in the country’s airspace, Romanian media outlet Digi24.ro reports. Citizens were warned of potential falling objects and urged to take protective measures.

The incident follows a pattern of Russian drones violating NATO airspace in recent days. On 10 September, a wave of Russian drones entered Poland, causing alarm among NATO members. 

The Romanian Ministry of National Defence said two F-16 fighter jets from Fetesti Air Base took off at 18:05 to monitor the airspace near the border with Ukraine, following Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian infrastructure along the nearby Danube river. 

The jets detected the drone near Chilia Veche, tracking it for roughly 50 minutes as it operated about 10 kilometers inside Romanian territory before disappearing from radar. 

The drone did not fly over populated areas and posed no imminent threat to civilians. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the incident, noting that Russian drones were active throughout the day in various regions of Ukraine. 

“The Russian military clearly knows the targets of their drones and how long they can stay in the air. Flight routes are always carefully calculated,” Zelenskyy said. 

“This cannot be accidental, a mistake, or the result of rogue actions by lower-level commanders. This is a deliberate expansion of the war by Russia.”

Zelenskyy called for sanctions, trade tariffs, and a coordinated system of collective defense. He said Ukraine has urged its partners to establish such protections proactively, warning against waiting for further drone or missile attacks before taking action.

The Tulcea Emergency Situations Inspectorate emphasized that Romania’s territory is not the direct target of Russian attacks and that the air alert, lasting roughly 90 minutes, was precautionary. 

Poland also responded to a separate threat on Saturday, mobilizing military aircraft after Russian drones were reported in Ukrainian regions bordering the country.

NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe Aleksus Hrinkevich declined to commit to shooting down Russian missiles and drones over western Ukraine during a press conference on Operation Eastern Guardian, the Alliance’s new air defense mission.

When asked by a journalist whether NATO countries on the eastern flank should intercept Russian projectiles approaching their borders over western Ukraine, and whether it was time to “fully integrate” with Kyiv since both face “the same enemy,” Hrinkevich said with measured restraint.

“I would say that Eastern Guardian is focused on defending Alliance territory,” the commander added.

The general said that he sees no conflict between individual countries’ support for Ukraine and their contributions to Operation Eastern Guardian.

The operation emerges as NATO’s direct response to repeated violations of member states’ airspace, particularly by Russian drones over Poland. The Alliance announced the mission would begin “in the coming days” and continue for an indefinite period.

The timing follows a series of escalating incidents. On 10 September, Russian drones breached Polish airspace. President Zelenskyy said the following day that Russia may have deliberately targeted Poland to prevent Ukraine from receiving air defense systems before winter.

NATO’s announcement of Operation Eastern Guardian came one day after Zelenskyy’s remarks, signaling the Alliance’s commitment to protecting member territories while maintaining its current approach to Ukraine support.

The operation represents NATO’s most direct military response to Russian incursions into member state airspace since the war began, though Hrinkevich’s comments indicate the mission will focus strictly on Alliance territory rather than extending defensive cover over Ukrainian airspace.

NATO has announced a new defensive initiative, “Eastern Sentry,” aimed at strengthening the alliance’s ability to respond to Russian drone incursions. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Alexus G. Grynkewich made the announcement at a joint press conference on 12 September 2025. 

This comes just two days after a wave of Russian drones entered Polish territory, sparking alarm among NATO members.

The operation is a direct response to Poland invoking Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which calls for consultations among allies when a member’s territorial integrity, political independence, or security is threatened.

Rutte said Eastern Sentry will bolster the eastern flank, ensuring the safety and security of alliance nations.

The operation will begin in the coming days and involve military assets from Denmark, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and other member states.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the effort will combine traditional military capabilities with measures specifically designed to address drone threats. 

“Eastern Sentry will add flexibility and strength to our posture, and make clear that, as a defensive alliance, we are always ready to defend,” he said.

SACEUR highlighted that integrated air- and ground-based defenses will be central to the initiative. While the immediate focus is on Poland, he emphasized that the threat transcends national borders and affects the entire alliance. 

Eastern Sentry will enhance deterrence, increase information sharing, and allow rapid deployment of counter-drone technologies.

Russia and Belarus have begun their joint military drills Zapad-2025, simulating missile attacks and nuclear scenarios. Analysts warn the exercises serve as both a rehearsal for war and a signal to NATO, echoing Soviet-era shows of force.

Missile launches and nuclear decision-making

Zapad-2025 started on 12 September and is scheduled to last until 16 September on Belarusian and Russian territory. One of the declared goals is to conduct missile launches, including tests of the Oreshnik system— a missile that Putin claims to be “unstoppable.”

The official theme is framed as the “application of groupings of troops in the interests of ensuring the military security of the Union State,” — Putin’s long-stalled project to absorb Belarus into a single country.

This year’s exercise will also simulate decision-making around the use of nuclear weapons and the deployment of nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles that Moscow has promised to transfer to Minsk.

While Russia has not disclosed exact numbers, Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka claimed last December that “several dozen” tactical nuclear weapons were already on Belarusian soil.

According to the Chief of the General Staff of Belarus, the Zapad-2025 exercises on Belarusian territory will be held at three training grounds located in the Vitebsk, Minsk, and Hrodna regions.

Investigators from Skhemy tracked the buildup of Russian military equipment and the deployment of additional infrastructure in these areas, allowing them to localize the sites of the upcoming drills.

While Belarusian authorities have not officially disclosed the exact locations, Lukashenka confirmed that Zapad-2025 will take place at training grounds near the city of Barysaw.

Polish and NATO concerns grow

The drills follow the latest Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, incidents that Warsaw says had been prepared for months. In anticipation of Zapad-2025, Poland has reinforced its eastern border with around 40,000 troops.

“Poland has been preparing for the Zapad manoeuvres for many months,” Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk told Polsat News.

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that “very aggressive scenarios” will be practiced, recalling that earlier Zapad exercises preceded Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.

NATO radars and allied aircraft are on high alert, with Lithuania estimating that around 30,000 Russian and Belarusian troops will take part.

Signal to NATO and Ukraine

While Moscow insists the drills are defensive, Western analysts see Zapad as both a rehearsal for potential offensives and a political message. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the exercise could be “a cover” for further aggression against Ukraine’s western neighbors.

Even if smaller in scale than Zapad-2021, this year’s drills underscore Russia’s reliance on Belarus as a forward base, its willingness to rattle NATO with nuclear signalling, and its long-standing tradition of using military theatre — and now network warfare simulations — as geopolitical intimidation.

Poland has reinforced its eastern border with around 40,000 troops.

“Poland has been preparing for the Zapad manoeuvres for many months,” Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk told Polsat News.

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned that “very aggressive scenarios” will be practiced, recalling that earlier Zapad exercises preceded Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022.

NATO radars and allied aircraft are on high alert, and Lithuania estimates that around 30,000 Russian and Belarusian troops will participate.

Historical context of Zapad

The Zapad (“West”) exercises date back to the Soviet era of the 1970s, when they were first designed to showcase nuclear strike capabilities and consolidate the unity of the Warsaw Pact.

Zapad-77 simulated nuclear strikes against NATO, while Zapad-81 became the largest Soviet military exercise ever, involving up to 150,000 troops and testing the SS-20 ballistic missile.

Declassified US intelligence reports from the 1980s described Zapad as one of the USSR’s most important military drills, aimed at testing wartime command structures and operational coordination across the Warsaw Pact.

Revived in 1999 under Vladimir Putin, Zapad was incorporated into a four-year cycle of large-scale Russian military exercises. Later versions integrated lessons from Russia’s wars in Crimea, Syria, and Ukraine, such as the use of drones for reconnaissance, tactical missile strikes, and counter-insurgency operations in urban areas.

The Veyshnoria precedent and hybrid “texting technologies”

The exercises have often included invented scenarios aimed at signalling to NATO and shaping perceptions abroad.

In Zapad-2017, Russia and Belarus staged combat against the fictional state of Veyshnoria— a “hostile” territory carved out of western Belarus, close to NATO borders. Analysts saw the scenario as a thinly veiled rehearsal for operations against Lithuania, Poland, or Ukraine, masked under the guise of fighting separatism.

Zapad-2025 builds on this legacy, introducing new layers of digital and communications warfare.

The discovery this summer of Russian drones using Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards reveals how Moscow tests invasion routes before using them. Since late 2023, Russia has equipped its Shahed attack drones with cellular modems—first Ukrainian SIM cards, then expanding to NATO countries.

In July, investigators found Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards in Russian drone wreckage shot down over Ukraine. Drones use cellular towers to triangulate navigation and transmit real-time targeting data while appearing as domestic mobile traffic.

Two months later, on September 9-10—just two days before Zapad-2025 began—Russian drones using Polish SIM cards violated Polish airspace. NATO fighters shot down at least four of 19 drones that crossed into Poland during Russia’s massive 415-drone attack on Ukraine.

Just as Veyshnoria was a fictional enemy created to test ground scenarios, Russia’s hijacking of local telecom networks signals Moscow’s intent to blend conventional and hybrid tactics in future conflict.

Russian forces had been preparing strikes on Poland and Lithuania for months, using 4G modems with Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards to test drone connectivity as early as June, according to the Ukrainian defense news outlet Defense Express.

SIM cards from Poland and Lithuania found in downed drones

In early July, Polish investigators revealed that wreckage from Russian drones shot down in Ukraine contained 4G modems equipped with SIM cards from Polish mobile operators, as reported by Polish journalist Marek Budzisz. Later, a SIM card from a Lithuanian operator was also discovered in another drone.

Analysts say this detail directly points to Russia’s preparation for drone incursions into NATO airspace, as Moscow tested mobile network connections in advance. The findings were reported to partners in Poland and Lithuania. Still, the revelations triggered little reaction domestically — even as Russian drones began entering Polish airspace regularly during the summer.

“Whether the Russian drones that attacked Poland today had such capabilities remains unknown. At the same time, the assumption that one of the tasks of this Russian attack was precisely reconnaissance of Poland’s air defense system is quite justified,” Defense Express wrote, noting that the Russia-Belarus military drills Zapad 2025 kick off today.

Nighttime drone raids over Poland

During Russia’s air attacks against Ukraine, Moscow’s drones violated the Polish airspace on multiple occasions. For example, on 7 September, a Russian drone bearing with “Cyrillic inscriptions” crashed near the Terespol border crossing with Belarus, according to Polish media. Poland and NATO forces, however, refused to shoot down such drones up until 10 September.

And in the early hours of 10 September, Russian drones once again violated Polish airspace. The incident prompted Polish aviation to scramble and temporarily shut down airports in Warsaw, Lublin, and Rzeszów amid fears of a wider attack. NATO fighter jets shot down at least four of reportedly 19 drones that crossed into Poland.

Ukraine’s Air Force said on 10 September that Russia launched 415 drones and 43 missiles, while the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stated that at least eight Shahed explosive drones were deliberately “aimed toward Poland,” calling the incident “a perilous precedent for Europe” and urging a united response from Western partners.

Despite clear evidence of intent, NATO has so far avoided classifying the violation as an act of aggression.

MP Röwekamp emphasized that Ukraine should receive modern air defense systems and equipment to strike targets on Russian territory, and that coordination within NATO should allow responding to threats in the airspace of allied countries.

Amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, providing Ukraine with such capabilities becomes particularly relevant after the incident in which some Russian UAVs entered Polish airspace. To protect key logistical hubs, such as Rzeszów Airport, the Bundeswehr deployed Patriot air defense systems and 200 soldiers, while Dutch F-35s shot down at least three drones.

The head of the Bundestag Defense Committee, Thomas Röwekamp, told the German magazine Spiegel that NATO needs to act more decisively against Russian drones. He stressed the need to shoot down drones over Ukraine and to strike production sites and launch platforms in Russia.

According to him, mass UAV attacks create very serious challenges for air defense, and military capabilities in this area should be expanded. Germany should increase its contribution and help Ukraine acquire modern air defense systems and other tools to counter drones.

Röwekamp highlighted the importance of NATO coordination to determine when and over whose territory threats can be countered:

“There must be a possibility, with the consent of the affected country, to neutralize drones that threaten NATO territory, even in their airspace.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for a coordinated approach to protect Ukrainian airspace, proposing to work with partners to find solutions that minimize escalation. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has refrained from commenting on the possibility of shooting down drones over Ukraine, emphasizing the need for caution and coordination with allies.

Meanwhile, Germany and other partners are actively supplying Ukraine with modern air defense systems and assisting in the development of long-range UAVs. This allows not only repelling attacks but also planning actions against the sources of threats on Russian territory.

Romania is accelerating the revival of its defense industry with American and German support, prioritizing the domestic production of drones, explosives, and gunpowder, Radio Free Europe Romania reports.

The move comes as the country consolidates its role as a key NATO hub on the Alliance’s eastern flank and a critical logistics lifeline for Ukraine amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

Brașov to become drone and explosives hub

In spring, Romania’s Ministry of Economy announced that the Transylvanian city of Brașov would host new facilities for the production of drones, explosives, and ammunition.

The local Carfil military plant is expected to produce drones using components supplied by American defense company Periscope Aviation.

“This is not a simple acquisition; it is a complete technology transfer, meant to build an indigenous industrial capacity in Romania — a long-term strategic objective for many NATO member states that want to reduce their dependence on imports and strengthen their defense industrial base,” stressed Economy Minister Bogdan Ivan.

Mr. Ivan also confirmed that drone production is scheduled to begin this summer, with an annual target of approximately 3,500 units.

“We are beneficiaries of the European SAFE Mechanism, financed by the European Commission with up to €150 billion. We have submitted Romania’s production capacities for the next ten years, along with proposals on how we can evolve, what we can build, and where we can be competitive,” Ivan said in an interview with Digi24.

Rheinmetall invests €400 million in gunpowder

At the same time, Germany’s Rheinmetall defense conglomerate is building in Brașov what will be the largest military gunpowder factory in Europe, with an investment of €400 million.

Romania’s leadership has emphasized that domestic production of gunpowder is a top priority, as the country currently imports it from Serbia, where much of the supply originates in Russia.

“This is essential for Romania’s security and independence,” said former Economy Minister Radu Oprea, underlining the need to reduce reliance on foreign sources.

Last year, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu also declared that Romania would soon host the “most modern gunpowder plant in Europe.”

Broader industrial revival

The new projects in Brașov are part of a broader national strategy to revitalize Romania’s defense industry. German investments are also reinforcing the Mediaș plant, which is set to expand production of military vehicles.

In Satu Mare, plans are underway to launch production of Leopard tanks, further strengthening Romania’s heavy weapons capabilities.

These initiatives align with NATO’s push to ramp up production capacities across Europe in response to Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Romania’s geographical position and existing infrastructure make it a frontline state in both logistics and industrial support for Kyiv.

Photo: Rheinmetall Automecanica SRL plant in Mediaș, Romania. May, 2024. Romania. Frame from the Nova Tv Medias video channel

Continuing tradition

Since the 1990s, Romania has cultivated increasingly close ties with major foreign defense companies.

Israel’s Elbit Systems was the first, establishing a joint venture with Aerostar Bacău in 1997 to modernize the Romanian MiG-21 fleet to the LanceR standard. The company also operates a local branch, Elmet International SRL, which produces avionics and drone technology.

Partnerships with US companies such as General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon Technologies have resulted in:

• creating an F-16 maintenance center
• the production of Patriot system components
• an assembly and production line for Piranha V armored personnel carriers in Romania.

Meanwhile, France’s Airbus, Naval Group, and Thales have supplied military communication systems, taken over and modernized the Ghimbav aircraft components factory, and entered into partnerships with the Constanța Naval Shipyard.

In addition, Poland’s PGZ has signalled interest in competing with its Borsuk model in the upcoming tender for Romania’s new infantry fighting vehicles.

Bayraktar drones stand lined up at a production facility in Brasov, which received massive investments from Airbus in 2024. Photo: Profimedia Images, Hotnews

Strategic significance for NATO and Ukraine

Romania is boosting its defense sector under the new 2024–2030 National Defense Industry Strategy, raising military spending above 2% of GDP and prioritizing advanced technologies such as AI, cybersecurity, and drones.

The plan focuses on:

• joint UAV production with Ukraine
• potential submarine manufacturing
• modernization of naval forces,
• fostering research and development, NATO–EU cooperation, and public–private partnerships to strengthen national security and position Romania as a competitive global defense producer.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Romania has re-examined its security posture as a direct neighbor of the war zone. Hosting vital NATO facilities and serving as a transit hub for military aid, Romania has become indispensable to both Ukraine’s defense and NATO’s deterrence strategy.

A Russian drone landed on the grounds of a Polish territorial defense base near Warsaw on 10 September, RMF24 reports. The incident occurred during a wave of at least 19 drones, flying in from Belarus and Ukraine, that violated Polish airspace overnight. No injuries or damage were reported. 16 16 UAVs were later recovered across Poland

Russian drone crash at Polish base

RMF24 confirmed that one of the drones fell on the territory of a Polish Territorial Defense Forces unit in Nowe Miasto nad Pilicą, located in Grójec County, not far from Warsaw. The drone was an unarmed Gerbera-type UAV and did not cause any structural damage, according to the report. This is the first confirmed case of a Russian drone landing within a military facility in Poland, a NATO member state. 

16 drones found across Poland in one night

Polish authorities confirmed 19 Russian drones violated airspace on 10 September, with 16 later found on Polish territory. Most of them came down in rural or uninhabited areas across multiple voivodeships, including Lublin, Świętokrzyskie, and Warmia-Masuria. Some damaged farm buildings or landed near homes, but no casualties were reported.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Sejm that 19 airspace violations were registered during the night. He emphasized that, for the first time, the attack originated not from Ukrainian airspace but from Belarus.

During the attack, Ukrainian airspace monitoring channels reported Russian drone movements to Poland via both Ukraine and Belarus, and later stated that some Russian drones returned from Poland to Ukraine.

Explore further

NATO jets shoot down Russian drones in Poland—but NATO believes it’s not an attack

Investigations continue at crash sites

In Cześniki, near Zamość, a drone was shot down by Polish air defense forces. Prosecutors confirmed that “Cyrillic” inscriptions were found on one of the drone’s components. Nearby, 30 drone fragments were collected, including parts made from foam-like materials and plywood.

Elsewhere, another drone landed on a residential home in Wyryki Wola in Lublin Voivodeship, damaging the roof and a car. No injuries occurred, as the elderly couple living there were tending to animals outside at the time, RMF24 says.

Explore further

Russian drone crashes into residential building in Poland

Russian drones breached Polish airspace on the night of 10 September 2025, prompting a rapid NATO response. Sweden will urgently send air defense systems and fighter jets to Poland, confirmed Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz in a live appearance on TVN24.

Sweden pledges aircraft and missile systems

“This day is not just about words of support, but also concrete declarations,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said on TVN24. “I just received information from Sweden’s Minister of Defense about the urgent delivery of additional support to Poland—air defense systems and aircraft.”

He stressed that allied decisions are now backed by action.

“Every such escalation makes us more united, not divided,” he said.

According to the minister, Sweden’s military aid will arrive alongside multi-level commitments from other NATO allies, delivered “within dozens of hours.”

Russian drones in Poland

Debris from the drones was recovered, but identifying the models remains difficult.

“They often broke into very small pieces,” Kosiniak-Kamysz stated.

He linked the incident directly to Russia’s broader ambitions.

“Russia’s strategy never changes,” he said. “They may change slogans or shapes, but they always move in one direction: destroying the civilization of the West, destroying our culture, our values, and the civilization of life.”

Allies respond with weapons, troops, and coordination

Support from NATO countries has been swift and tangible. The Netherlands will deliver Patriot batteries, NASAMS systems, anti-drone equipment, and 300 soldiers. Other allies—including the Czech Republic, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Finland, Italy, and the Baltic states—have made clear commitments.

“All our allies are ready to provide support,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said. “They are making concrete declarations.”

Poland triggered consultations under Article 4 of the NATO Treaty—an uncommon move, but one the minister called “a rare and serious situation.” He referenced the 2003 NATO mission near Türkiye’s border with Iraq as a precedent for this type of coordinated defense initiative.

Eyes on Zapad 2025 as drone threats rise

When asked why this particular night saw intensified Russian drone activity, Kosiniak-Kamysz pointed to the timing.

“The correlation with the Zapad exercises is evident,” he said.

Zapad 2025, the latest joint Russian-Belarusian military drills, officially begin on 12 September. Poland has already announced it will shut its border with Belarus starting midnight that day, citing security risks tied to the exercise.

The latest incident

Around 19 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace during the night of 9-10 September 2025. Ukraine reports that “several dozen” Russian drones moved along the Ukraine-Belarus border and across western regions of Ukraine, “approaching targets on Ukrainian territory and, apparently, on Polish territory.”

The violation lasted over six hours: first drone entered around 21:30 GMT on Tuesday, with the last violation occurring around 04:30 GMT on Wednesday.

At least two drones used Belarusian airspace for the first time. The deliberate route programming followed corridors used in previous violations of Polish airspace.

Poland shot down four Russian drones with Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s. Seven pieces of debris were recovered, including one that crashed into a residential building.

The telling comparison: Ukraine downs 87.4% of Russian long-range drones. Poland only shot down 17-21% of the drones that entered its airspace.

Was this deliberate?

While Russia has denied intentions to target Poland, many Western officials and NATO members have deemed the breach deliberate and escalatory. Poland sees it as “an act of aggression“, and commentators labelled it a test of alliance resolve and an attempt to strain NATO’s air-defence readiness.

Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski said that the drones “did not veer off course” but deliberately targeted Poland, as he called out “lies and denials” from Russia.

His assessment is supported by the drones entering from Belarus, which, as such, were not part of the complex strike package targeting Ukraine. The scale and coordination of the incursion—far larger than any previous incidents—further support the view.

NATO’s limited response

Prime Minister Donald Tusk invoked Article 4, launching NATO consultations.

It means that Poland considers its territorial integrity, political independence, or security threatened and is launching a consultation mechanism to discuss its security concerns within the North Atlantic Council. This could pave the way for joint NATO action, but it does not necessitate it.

Article 4 has been invoked only 8 times since NATO’s establishment in 1949; five were triggered by Türkiye. Poland previously invoked it in March 2014 after Russia illegally annexed Crimea.

In 2022, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia triggered Article 4 over Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and concerns over potential threats to NATO’s eastern flank and possible Russian spillover. As a result, the Alliance dramatically increased its forward presence, activated defense plans, and boosted air policing missions in the east.

But this incident does not constitute significant escalation. It represents one incident in a far too long list of Russian attacks and provocations spanning the last 1,295 days of systematic hybrid warfare.

Russia’s systematic hybrid warfare campaign

Since 2022, Russia has waged a comprehensive hybrid war against Europe. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a resolution on 30 January 2025, stressing that “hybrid warfare tactics employed by the Russian Federation through cyber-attacks, arson, disinformation campaigns and sabotage further threaten European security.”

Russia’s acts of malignant activities include:

(1) Terrorism. The EU recognized Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism based on its illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine, including indiscriminate attacks against residential areas and civilian infrastructure, summary executions, abductions, sexual violence, torture and other atrocities, and its targeting of Ukrainian critical infrastructure all over the country to terrorize the population and cut access to gas, electricity, water, the internet and other basic goods and services.

This designation also reflects Russia’s responsibility for the global food security crisis, its threats to the safety and security of the whole European continent and the rules-based international order through efforts to undermine the security and safety of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities and threats of using nuclear weapons, as well as Russia’s persistent threats to employ “military-technical measures” in response to Europe’s support for Ukraine, and Russia’s weaponizing energy as a tool of geopolitical coercion.

(2) Assassinations. Russia planned to murder Armin Papperger, the CEO of a powerful German arms manufacturer. Sources said the assassination attempt was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defence industry executives across Europe who support Ukraine’s military efforts.

(3) Sabotage. Since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly intensified sabotage against European countries that support Ukraine. Key statistics:

• Attacks on critical infrastructure quadrupled in 2023 and tripled in 2024 to 30 attacks
• IISS counted 11 suspected Russian-backed hybrid attacks in Europe between January and May 2025
• Targets include undersea cables, warehouses, and railroad networks across Europe

(4) Arson. Russian intelligence has been linked to a coordinated campaign of arson attacks across multiple European countries, particularly targeting commercial and symbolic facilities. Regional security agencies and NATO have raised alarms over a series of suspicious fires in warehouses, shops, and transport infrastructure—suspected to be part of a synchronized sabotage campaign by Russian proxies. This includes arson attacks in the UK, Czechia, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, and Poland.

(5) Underwater warfare. Russia attacks pipelines and data cables in the Baltic and interferes with water supplies in Sweden and Finland. At the other end of the scale, Russian spy sensors were recently uncovered in the sea around the UK, which are believed to have been installed to track the movements of the British nuclear submarines.

Russia has long begun preparing for a war with NATO. This strategy involves monitoring and laying the groundwork for possible sabotage of underwater infrastructure. “There should be no doubt, there is a war raging in the Atlantic… We are seeing phenomenal amounts of Russian activity.”

(6) Navigation warfare. European countries “have raised concerns to international transport organisations over sharp increases in GPS and signal jamming and spoofing in recent months as well as an increase in Russian electronic warfare (EW) installations in border areas.” Key impact:

• Russian GPS jamming affected 122,600 flights over northern Europe in the first four months of 2025 alone
• A joint report by Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland concludes this poses a serious threat to international aviation safety

(7) Cyberattacks. Russian hackers have intensified their attacks against the UK and other NATO allies providing military aid to Ukraine. Russia has targeted the media, telecommunications, political and democratic institutions, and energy infrastructure. Russia systematically conducts cyberattacks 48 hours before physical missile strikes.

(8) Information warfare. A recent Polish report highlighted a deliberate Russian strategy of undermining trust in democratic institutions, NATO, and the EU. Polish analysts estimated Russia spends $2–4 billion annually on information operations, framing them as a systematic, multi-channel campaign.

(9) Election interference. “Russia leads the charge in spreading fake articles and videos aimed at influencing the US presidential election,” a statement from the National Intelligence, the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said. On 6 December 2024, the Romanian Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of the presidential election, due to a coordinated foreign manipulation effort.

(10) Maritime violations. Russia actively restricts freedom of navigation, particularly in strategic maritime zones like the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and parts of the Arctic, often using military pressure, administrative controls, or hybrid tactics.

Russia frequently uses “Notice to Mariners” (NOTMARs) and similar maritime advisories—such as Navigational Warnings (NAVWARNs)—as means, often in ways that exceed international legal norms. These actions challenge international maritime law, especially the principles set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)—even though Russia is a signatory.

(11) Airspace violations. Romania has detected Russian drones within its borders repeatedly. Only Belarus—Moscow’s ally—attempts to shoot down drones. Moldova, Romania, Poland, and Lithuania have all failed to intercept drones.

NATO’s utter failure

In September 2021, the EU Parliament concluded Russia is waging hybrid war against EU and NATO members. No NATO member has invoked Article 4 over this systematic campaign.

While NATO acknowledges cyberattacks can trigger Article 5, it refuses to act on Russia’s campaign of terrorism, assassinations, sabotage, arson, infrastructure attacks, navigation warfare, cyberattacks, information warfare, election interference, maritime violations, and repeated airspace violations.

The Alliance has utterly failed to deter Russian aggression. NATO failed to act when war started in 2014, failed again in 2022, and during The Hague Summit even delayed introducing 5% defense budget requirements to 2035—5-8 years after it might be at war with Russia.

Russia has succeeded in cognitive warfare, pacifying the world’s strongest military alliance through fear that action might trigger broader confrontation. The confrontation is already taking place.

The solution

Reactions to Russian aggression will not escalate the war. NATO’s failure to respond has shown that inaction escalates the war. Appeasement fuels aggressor risk-taking, increasing the chances of strategic miscalculations that lead to World Wars.

To ensure strategic clarity and secure NATO territory, the Alliance should:

1. Invoke Article 5 based on Russia’s hybrid war campaign and consequently mobilize its defense industrial base, accelerate rearming and rebuilding military power, and prepare society for possible war with Russia.
2. Immediately close the sky over Western Ukraine to stop Russian missiles and drones from approaching NATO territory.
3. Deploy military forces to Ukrainian cities and ports to stop Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians and crucial infrastructure—health and medical facilities, schools and kindergartens, energy and water infrastructure.

Unfortunately, NATO lacks the courage to stop Russian aggression. This drone “attack” will mark yet another step on the escalation ladder as the Alliance remains trapped in “Boiled Frog Syndrome.”

Hans Petter Midttun

Hans Petter Midttun, independent analyst on hybrid warfare, Non-Resident Fellow at the Centre for Defense Strategies, board member of the Ukrainian Institute for Security and Law of the Sea, former Defense Attaché of Norway to Ukraine, and officer (R) of the Norwegian Armed Forces. 

Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press’ editorial team may or may not share them.

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Kyiv extends a helping hand to Poland. Ukraine has offered Warsaw the necessary assistance in countering Russian drones, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.

The attack occurred just as Western leaders, including the US, continue working on security guarantees for Ukraine, aimed at protecting the country from Russian strikes, including drone attacks.

Ukraine without modern aviation — but with results

Ukraine does not possess modern fighter jets, yet during the same time frame, it managed to shoot down 380 out of 415 drones launched by Russia.

The question remains: how to force Russia to end the war against Ukraine and stop attacking NATO countries?

“No one can guarantee that there won’t be hundreds of drones if there are already dozens. Only joint European forces can provide real protection. We are ready to help with technology, crew training, and the necessary intelligence,” Zelenskyy stressed.

Dangerous “Zapad-2025” drills

According to Zelenskyy, joint Russian-Belarusian exercises “Zapad-2025” have begun on Belarusian territory, and the attack on Poland may be part of this training scenario.

The program of the drills reportedly includes a rehearsal of an attack on Poland and even the simulation of a nuclear strike.

Despite the attack on a NATO member state, US President Donald Trump did not announce any new sanctions against Moscow or present a clear plan to counter Russia.

“Unfortunately, as of now, Russia has not received a tough response from global leaders to what it is doing,” Zelenskyy said.

According to him, with this attack, Russia is testing the limits of what is possible and probing the West’s reaction.

“They are recording how NATO armed forces act, what they can do and what they cannot do yet,” the Ukrainian president added.

Kyiv warned Poland about the Russian drone threat before the attack occurred. On the night of 10 September, nearly two dozen Russian drones may have entered Polish airspace, although this figure is not final, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

This incident marked the first time since Russian drones massively violated the territory of a NATO member state and prompted the country to down them with strategic aviation. 

“Ukrainian forces informed the Polish side through the appropriate channels about the movement of Russian drones. Around 00:50 Kyiv time, the first crossing of the Ukrainian-Polish border by a Russian drone was recorded,” the Ukrainian president noted.

At least two drones that entered Poland used Belarusian airspace. Meanwhile, dozens of other drones moved along the Ukraine-Belarus border and in western regions of Ukraine, approaching Ukrainian and potentially Polish targets.

Ukrainian air defenses in action

Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukrainian defenders destroyed more than 380 Russian drones of various types, including at least 250 Shaheds.

“The number of Russian drones that crossed into Polish territory and penetrated deeply may be higher than previously reported. We are checking,” the Ukrainian president said. 

Ukrainian forces continue to analyze debris to clarify drone types. The president stressed that only joint and coordinated action with allies can ensure reliable airspace protection.

NATO and regional security

Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense denied involvement in the attack.

The incident prompted Poland to appeal to NATO, which activated Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This allows consultations regarding threats to territorial integrity and security, but does not automatically trigger a military response as Article 5 does. Polish F-16s and F-35s were scrambled to intercept drones, though most threats were neutralized by Ukrainian air defenses.

The attack happened in the midst of discussions by European and American allies on security guarantees for Ukraine. 

Intelligence insights

Joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises, “Zapad-2025,” are currently underway in Belarus, with the active phase planned for 12–16 September. During these exercises, scenarios include simulated attacks on Poland and nuclear weapons deployment, UkrInform reports. 

Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, stated that the active phase will involve serious information pressure, accompanied by staged leaks and information provocations.

In its 8 September assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned that Russian officials are now applying the same disinformation tactics used to justify the invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022—this time targeting Finland.

Medvedev threatens Finland with collapse, echoes invasion rhetoric

Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev issued direct threats against Finland in a 8 September opinion piece published by Kremlin newswire TASS. He claimed that Finland should not “forget” that conflict with Russia “could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever.” Medvedev accused Finnish authorities of having historic ties to Nazi Germany, and alleged they aimed to expand into parts of modern-day Russia, including Eastern Karelia, Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), and the Kola Peninsula.

Medvedev claimed that Finland’s government is “Russophobic” and driven by greed, “installed in Finnish minds back in the days of Hitler.” He also alleged that Finnish authorities committed genocide against Slavs and tried to erase the historical and cultural identity of ethnic Russians. According to Medvedev, Finland joined NATO under a false pretense of defense but is actually preparing for war against Russia.

ISW: Kremlin setting conditions for future aggression

According to ISW, the propaganda targeting Finland follows a familiar pattern. The think tank noted that Russian officials are once again invoking the so-called “root causes” of conflict—a phrase frequently used to support Russia’s aggressive policies toward Ukraine. Medvedev claimed these root causes date back to World War II, aligning with Kremlin arguments that NATO’s expansion and alleged anti-Russian discrimination justify military responses.

ISW highlighted that Kremlin narratives like these are not isolated. On 13 March, Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev accused Finland of attempting to “exterminate” the Slavic population and claimed the West is turning Finland into a launchpad for aggression. In December 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed NATO “dragged” Finland into the alliance and warned that “there will be problems” with Finland.

ISW assessed that the Kremlin is now applying the same disinformation playbook to NATO members, such as Finland and the Baltic States. The think tank emphasized that this shift is part of a broader effort to normalize the idea of conflict with NATO and lay the informational groundwork for escalation.

Russia and Belarus are training for an attack on Poland, and this is more than just military exercises — it’s drills for striking a neighboring country. Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns that Polish forces are ready to respond to any provocations. Diplomacy will continue, but in the event of a threat, serious measures will be taken.

According to Defence24, part of the exercises will also take place near Ukraine’s border, similar to what happened shortly before the 2022 invasion.

Unconventional tactics in focus

This year, exercises will include:

• simulated counter-air operations,
• advances supported by mechanized forces,
• active use of electronic warfare, with emphasis on communications and transport,
• mass involvement of reservists, and mobilization of local authorities.

Russia and Belarus could stage provocations along Ukraine’s border, aiming to “force Kyiv to disperse its forces.”

Poland prepares to deter aggression

Tusk stressed that preparations are underway to counter any aggression.

“We are preparing appropriate responses together with our allies to the aggressive maneuvers that Russia and Belarus are conducting near our borders. They are already aggressive; they simulate an attack, not defense. Let’s not deceive ourselves,” Tusk says.

Poland keeps a close watch

Tusk emphasizes that Poland is working with European partners to convince the US of the real threat. Recently, Polish President Karol Nawrocki has reached an agreement with US President Donald Trump: US support is available, but “nothing comes for free.”

Provocations will not go unanswered

Polish authorities are monitoring airspace violations and other provocations by Belarus and Russia.

“For Poland, there are dangers, as we border Belarus. We will consult and respond to provocations. Those who carry them out will face serious consequences, both diplomatic and kinetic,” Tusk adds.

While the “kinetic consequences” remain undisclosed, the Polish prime minister assures that Poland has “special measures” in place to protect the country.

The US is ready to create a buffer zone in Ukraine to contain Russia, but it is unclear whether Putin will stop the war. If a peace agreement is reached, the US plans to take a leading role in monitoring a large demilitarized buffer zone on Ukrainian territory, NBC News reports. 

It would separate the Russian and Ukrainian areas after the fighting ends. The US drones, satellites, and other intelligence tools would help ensure security compliance, while American troops would not be deployed within the zone.

International oversight and security

Troops from one or more non-NATO countries, such as Saudi Arabia or Bangladesh, could secure the buffer zone.

Meanwhile, Turkiye would be responsible for the safe movement of goods and services in the Black Sea, controlling the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. Previously, Turkiye attempted to ensure the safety of the maritime corridor for exporting Ukrainian grain. However, Russia continued its strikes on Ukraine’s Odesa port anyway. 

Security guarantees and economic protection

Some security guarantees from allies are planned to be based on the plan, which avoids the use of NATO forces and Article V to avoid crossing Russia’s “red line.”

Additionally, bilateral agreements between Ukraine and its allies would provide security and economic support. The US is discussing with Ukraine a deal worth around $100 billion, which would include weapons supplies and the exchange of intellectual property rights for Ukrainian developments as part of security guarantees. 

Still, it is not clear how Kyiv will get back Ukrainian children stolen by Russia and how the issue of war reparations will be solved. 

NATO member countries will contribute to the construction of new air bases where F-35 fighters will be stationed, Yle reported on 4 September.

The NATO Investment Committee will decide the size of each country’s contribution. Defence Properties CEO Matias Warsta expressed hope that the funding will reach over 100 million euros ($116 mn)

“I hope that we reach a three-digit figure, over one hundred million euros,” Warsta said, emphasizing this was his personal assessment.

Finland’s Ministry of Defence declined to provide forecasts on the amount other NATO countries might contribute.

According to Yle’s calculations, the potential 100 million euros ($116 mn) would represent one-fifth of the construction program worth approximately half a billion euros. The plan includes building shelters, maintenance facilities, and storage for new F-35 fighters in Rovaniemi, Siilinjärvi, and Tikkakoski.

NATO approved almost the entire Finnish F-35 infrastructure construction program as eligible for funding earlier this spring. The first F-35 fighters are expected to arrive at the Rovaniemi air base in late 2026, where construction work has already begun.

Finland has ordered 64 new F-35s from Lockheed Martin to replace aging F/A-18 Hornets.

Finland receives NATO co-financing for the first time

NATO provides funding through its investment program when a project is deemed to generate capabilities for the entire defense alliance and exceed national needs. According to Warsta, access to NATO co-financing was not guaranteed when construction began.

“This is an educated expert assessment. But the sum could be larger or smaller,” Warsta said.

Special adviser Arjo Kaarre from the Ministry of Defence noted that determining which aspects of fighter base equipment exceed Finland’s needs is not straightforward.

“It’s a matter of negotiation and partly interpretative,” Kaarre said.

Each NATO country’s payment share is determined in the same proportion as membership fees. Kaarre indicated the first funding decisions will likely be made next year.

Finland has not previously received NATO co-financing for its construction projects.

Manufacturer sets new requirements mid-construction

The first F-35 fighters will arrive at the Lapland Squadron in Rovaniemi in late 2026. Construction work continues at the site.

Cost estimates for the Rovaniemi base have increased from 150 million to 200 million euros (from $174 mn to $232 mn), though Warsta said they remain within agreed frameworks.

“In addition to rising construction costs, the equipment manufacturer (Lockheed Martin) has also set additional requirements for the work,” Warsta explained.

Both Lockheed Martin and the US administration have imposed strict security requirements and regularly inspect compliance.

Construction at Rovaniemi includes underground spaces for fighters and information systems, a 3,000 square meter storage facility for spare parts, maintenance facilities, and training facilities with simulators.

The airfield will see increased use as training activities with NATO allies intensify. In real situations, allied fighters could also rely on Finnish bases.

Ukraine’s allies met in Paris to discuss security guarantees, but doubts grew as US commitments remained unclear. Reuters reports the summit brought together 30 leaders seeking to reassure Kyiv while peace talks with Russia look increasingly remote.

Coalition meets Zelenskyy in Paris

On 4 September 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joined about 30 Western leaders in Paris for talks on security guarantees. The “coalition of the willing” includes European states, Canada, Japan, and Australia. Some leaders attended in person, while others joined by video-link.

The summit aimed to define military support for Ukraine in the event of a truce with Russia. But months of discussion have produced no clarity, as governments argue that European commitments need a US backstop.

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Trump envoy arrives in Paris

Reuters noted that US President Donald Trump has yet to make any explicit pledge. His envoy Steve Witkoff met senior European officials in Paris hours before the meeting, according to diplomats. French President Emmanuel Macron said on 3 September alongside Zelenskyy that coalition leaders would endorse security plans drawn up by their militaries. Macron said Ukraine’s allies have finalized and are ready to politically approve military security guarantees to support Kyiv once a peace deal is reached, according to dpa.

Two European officials confirmed to Reuters the technical plans were finished, though they gave no details.

British and French army chiefs briefed the leaders during the talks. Macron told reporters, “We are ready, us Europeans, to provide security guarantees to Ukraine for when there is a signed peace,” while stressing that sincerity from Russia remains in question.

Sending signals to Washington

European officials said the goal was to send a political signal to Trump. Leaders hoped to highlight the absence of progress toward peace talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy since Trump hosted Putin in August.

Trump, after hosting Putin, accused him of conspiring with China and North Korea. On 3 September, he denounced the three leaders’ show of unity in Beijing during a commemoration of the end of World War Two.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on 3 September he expected clarity soon from the coalition on what could be delivered, and that this would pave the way for deeper discussions with Washington.

Western officials said the central element of guarantees would be continued support for Ukraine’s armed forces. Proposals also included deploying an international force in Ukraine or nearby countries to reassure Kyiv, despite Russia’s opposition to foreign troops.

European leaders insisted such a force could only happen with US backing. Trump has spoken in broad terms about supporting Ukraine but has not specified what Washington would contribute, Reuters says. The French presidency said some leaders would call Trump after the summit.

Ukraine is carrying out a multibillion-dollar arms buildup program, funded by Europe. The plan is seen as the best chance to defend against Russia amid reduced American aid and uncertainty over Western security guarantees, reports The New York Times.

Best security guarantee for Ukraine? 

Under this plan, the focus will be on developing Ukraine’s domestic defense industry. In particular, at the end of August, Ukraine began production of its long-range cruise missile, the Flamingo.

This domestically produced missile has a flight range exceeding 3,000 km and carries a 1,150 kg warhead. The company that designed them, FirePoint, also manufactures the FP-series drones. It is now actively scaling the Flamingo project alongside its drone production. FP-1 drones have been used against targets in Russia since at least 2024.

According to Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, Ukraine’s own missile program could be the country’s best security guarantee.

“The whole model is that we get contracts, written agreements, that state we will have this number of weapons provided to Ukraine by this year, from the United States, from the Europeans,” Skrypchenko said.

He is confident that Moscow can be deterred from a new attack if Ukraine possesses several hundred long-range ballistic missiles.

Technological advantage

The Ukrainian army is unlikely to match Russia in troop numbers, which is why increasing weapons production makes sense. However, it is still unclear how far this military buildup can go. European countries are already facing budgetary difficulties, which could limit the level of support Ukraine expects.

Building security shield from Russia 

Discussions over security guarantees have not yet produced significant results. Meanwhile, Russia is attempting to disrupt them, demanding a voice in certain matters, the report emphasizes.

This is why Ukraine is focusing on developing its own security guarantees. Producing Ukrainian weapons and purchasing Western arms are areas over which Russia can have almost no influence.

“This is not something the Russians can really discuss. That’s our advantage,” Aliona Hetmanchuk, Head of Ukraine’s Mission to NATO, told journalists.

Planning the production scales

Recent pledges from Germany and Norway to provide up to $10 billion in military and civilian aid to Ukraine next year indicate that Europe is ready to meet this challenge. These large sums mark a turning point, as previously Western partners provided smaller, short-term financial allocations.

Analysts told journalists that larger financial packages could help Ukraine better plan the long-term task of arming its army.

Meanwhile, Russia is showing no sign of intention to end the war in Ukraine. In recent months, Putin has only:

• intensified its attacks on Ukraine, killing more civilians than in 2024
• deployed nearly 100,000 troops to Donetsk Oblast
• refused to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
• continued strengthening ties with its main economic partner, China. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin says the EU has no reason to worry about potential Moscow aggression. He denies that the Kremlin is preparing for an attack and says that under US President Donald Trump, America began to “listen to Russia,” reports the pro-Kremlin outlet RIA Novosti.

Putin made these statements during a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in China. 

On 31 August, he arrived in China, Russia’s main economic partner, which provides the Kremlin with unprecendent support during its war against Ukraine, on a four-day visit. It came just as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop the war has expired.

Trump’s deadline and Russia’s new attacks

Putin claims that any talk about Moscow planning to attack the EU is “Western fiction.”

“They are specialists in fairy tales and horror movies. Any rational person perfectly understands that Russia is not going to attack anyone,” he said.

Before the beginning of Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine in 2022, Putin also repeatedly denied any plans for an attack or invasion in his official statements. Russian officials consistently rejected accusations of preparing military actions against Ukraine, calling the buildup of troops near the border “unfounded tension-mongering.”

It was only on 22 February 2022, that Putin announced the start of the so-called “special military operation” on Ukrainian territory, effectively acknowledging the military actions that had already begun.

The war in Ukraine – “protection of its own interests”

The Russian ruler also justified aggression in Ukraine, claiming that Moscow is allegedly “forced to protect people who tie their fate to Russia.”

“Russia’s only goal in Ukraine is the protection of its own interests,” Putin added.

He also shifted responsibility for attacks on Ukraine on its authorities: “Moscow endured Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy for a long time and then began to respond seriously.”

Lies about EU integration and the Zaporizhzhia NPP

Putin assured that Russia has “never opposed Ukraine’s EU membership” but called Ukraine’s accession to NATO unacceptable. He also allowed for the possibility of a tripartite cooperation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant involving the US and Ukraine.

Experts emphasize that such statements are part of a Kremlin information operation aimed at the West and the Global South, intended to justify three years of aggression and attacks on civilians.

In addition, Putin praised the administration of US President Donald Trump, which refused to provide free aid to Ukraine and introduced no new sanctions against Russia. According to him, under Trump, America began to “listen to Russia,” a claim he said was confirmed by the Alaska summit.

Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack, Inspector of the German Navy, has warned of “increased aggressiveness” from Russian units and their potential consequences, according to Spiegel as reported by Evropeyska Pravda.

“There are drone overflights, we have infiltration attempts, sabotage attempts,” Kaack said, Deutschlandfunk reported on 30 August. He added that Bundeswehr soldiers are being specifically contacted outside of duty hours, alongside threats to maritime infrastructure.

The warning comes after The New York Times reported that Russia or Russian supporters are using reconnaissance drones to monitor routes in eastern Germany used by the US and allies to transport military cargo to Ukraine, citing sources from US agencies and other Western states.

Kaack emphasized the risk of unintended escalation. “All this also carries the danger that there could be an escalation by accident,” he said. The navy has significantly strengthened its security measures in response, with precise rules of engagement designed to prevent such scenarios.

“We are working to better protect these bases in the air, underwater and above water, including with our own drone systems,” the inspector stated. Reports about increased flights of Russian spy drones serve as “a small wake-up call that we need to do more,” according to Kaack.

“The services assume that by 2029 at the latest, a potential adversary would be ready to cause trouble,” the Vice Admiral said, referring to intelligence findings. “And we want to prevent that by being defense-ready and capable of deterrence.” This applies to the Baltic Sea region as well.

In recent months, underwater cables have been repeatedly damaged by ships dragging anchors across the seabed. Ships from Russia’s so-called shadow fleet are primarily blamed for such incidents, though Chinese vessels have also faced accusations.

The German military has documented escalating drone activity throughout 2024. In February, German forces detected suspicious drones over a base where Ukrainian soldiers were training and investigated possible espionage. In May, unofficial reports indicated unknown drones circled near a German police patrol vessel in the North Sea that was monitoring a Russian cargo ship.

By early July, German government agencies finally began acquiring countermeasures against unknown drones occasionally spotted near sensitive facilities. In early August, reports indicated that 536 drones were detected over important facilities in Germany between January and March of this year.

Kaack praised the planned military service model approved by the cabinet on Wednesday. He expressed confidence that the planned voluntary military service solution would massively help the navy address its recruitment problems. “The new military service will be the game-changer,” Kaack said.

The inspector acknowledged being “always a friend of military conscription” but noted that the time since conscription was suspended in 2011 cannot be undone. The Bundeswehr will need time to restore capabilities abandoned at that time. The goal is to develop into a training navy that massively and regularly inspires large numbers of young people to commit for longer periods. “And that also takes time,” he said.

The German Navy is also investing in new equipment for enhanced security. The first Boeing Poseidon P-8 reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled for delivery in September, Kaack announced. Eight aircraft of this type have been ordered so far, with four additional orders under discussion. The navy will also soon have an underwater drone at its disposal.

However, Kaack warned that complete protection would never be possible.

Finland and Poland are considering an unusual but quite real weapon against possible Russian aggression. The countries are planning to restore restore the long-lost boggy floodplain in strategy to create a shield from troops and tanks, while also helping to fight climate change by renewing carbon sinks, Politico reports. 

Bogs as a trap for Russian equipment

Restored peat bogs could stop the advance of Russian armored vehicles and infantry.

“When waterlogged, this terrain represents a dangerous trap for military trucks and tanks,” the report says. 

In a tragic example in 2025, four US soldiers stationed in Lithuania were found dead when they drove their 63-ton M88 Hercules armored vehicle into a bog. 

They disappeared during military exercises at the General Silvestras Žukauskas training ground in Pabradė, a town located less than 10 km (6 miles) from the Belarusian border.

NATO gains a new natural line of defense

Most European peatlands are concentrated along NATO’s border with Russia and Belarus — from the Finnish Arctic through the Baltic states to eastern Poland. Scientists emphasize that restoring part of the bogs would be a relatively cheap and simple step that combines environmental and defense goals.

Finland and Poland launch pilot projects

Finland’s defense and environment ministries will already begin negotiations this fall on a pilot project to restore peatlands. Poland is also interested in bogs as a barrier: here the initiative fits into the large-scale “Eastern Shield” program, which envisions strengthening the eastern border with networks of fences and obstacles.

A secret document has exposed Hungary as the Kremlin’s “Trojan horse” inside the EU, say InformNapalm investigators. They have obtained a letter revealing the so-called “Ansat” project, a scheme discussed at the level of the Hungarian government with Russia’s state-owned Helicopters of Russia.

The plan was to use Hungary as a platform for legalizing and assembling Russian military equipment, which would then be exported under a “European” brand.

“While most EU countries stand with Ukraine and comply with sanctions, Budapest has become a gateway for Moscow to bypass restrictions and advance its military-industrial interests,” says InformPalm. 

How Hungary helped the Kremlin bypass sanctions

The document confirms that:

• The project was presented to Hungary’s Ministry of Finance and discussed at the government level.
• A joint working group was created with Hungarian officials, including a deputy state secretary of the Finance and Economy Ministry.
• Coordination was entrusted to Armitech Industries Ltd. in Budapest, a company openly lobbying for Russian interests.

Sanctions did not stop Moscow

The evidence shows that even after sanctions were imposed, the Kremlin actively built channels inside the EU to circumvent them. Hungary turned out to be one of its links, willing to shield Russia’s defense projects.

Orbán and political blockades in the EU and NATO

“Every time Orbán blocks EU aid to Ukraine or vetoes NATO decisions, remember: this is not just politics but direct collusion with Russia’s defense industry,” InformNapalm stresses.

Earlier, Hungary banned a top Ukrainian drone unit commander from entering the country and the Schengen zone after strikes on the Druzhba oil pipeline.

Hungarian officials called the pipeline vital for their country’s as Hungary is still receiving Russian oil and financing Moscow’s war machine against Ukraine, despite the fourth year of Russia’s all-out war. 

Hungary bans Ukrainian commander over Russian pipeline hit — latest sign of Budapest acting as Kremlin’s proxy in EU

In anticipation of a potential war with Russia, the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands has begun reserving space for NATO ships carrying military cargo and is mapping out logistics routes for weapons transfers, the Financial Times reported on July 8.

The decision comes as NATO allies increasingly warn of the risk of a large-scale war with Russia within five years. Rotterdam has previously handled weapons shipments, but this marks the first time that it will designate a special berth for military use.

Part of the container terminal will be repurposed to ensure the safe transfer of ammunition and other equipment between vessels. Military supply logistics will be coordinated with the port of Antwerp in neighboring Belgium.

"We see each other less and less as competitors," Boudewijn Siemons, Chief Executive of the Port of Rotterdam Authority, said, referring to the port of Antwerp.

"If large volumes of military goods would have to be shipped, we'd look to Antwerp or other ports to take over some capacity and the other way around."

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Siemons added that not all terminals are equipped to handle military-grade cargo, making the logistical coordination crucial, particularly for shipments from the U.S., U.K., and Canada.

In May, the Dutch Defense Ministry confirmed that space would be allocated for military supplies at NATO's request. The move is part of broader efforts by European allies to reduce dependence on the U.S. for defense logistics.

Russia's military spending has surged amid its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Moscow's 2024 defense budget rose by 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined total of all European countries.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on July 5 that a Chinese military move against Taiwan could prompt Beijing to encourage Russia to open a second front against NATO states.

Rutte has repeatedly warned that Russia could rebuild its military capabilities fast enough to pose a direct threat to NATO territory, urging allied governments to act swiftly and decisively.

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The Kyiv IndependentLiliane Bivings

If China attacks Taiwan, Beijing may ask Moscow to open a second front against NATO states, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in an interview with The New York Times (NYT) published on July 5.

Fears of escalating Chinese military intervention in Taiwan have risen sharply since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war has served as a possible model of how both Taipei and the international community might respond if Beijing decides to invade.

"There's an increasing realization, and let's not be naive about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, 'Hey, I'm going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,'" Rutte said.

"That is most likely the way this will progress. And to deter them, we need to do two things. One is that NATO, collectively, being so strong that the Russians will never do this. And second, working together with the Indo-Pacific — something President (Donald) Trump is very much promoting," Rutte added.

Western officials and analysts point to Russia's surging military expenditures amid its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In 2024, Russia's defense budget reportedly rose 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined spending of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NATO allies have cited Russia's military buildup, sabotage campaigns, and continued aggression against Ukraine as reasons to accelerate defense investments.

Rutte previously warned that Russia could rebuild its military capacity to threaten NATO territory within five years, urging members to act with urgency.

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The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

Europe must dramatically ramp up its defenses against a resurgent Russia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in an interview with the New York Times published on July 5, crediting U.S. President Donald Trump for driving the alliance to unprecedented levels of commitment.

Rutte, who assumed his role late last year after 14 years as Prime Minister of the Netherlands, has been navigating NATO through a period marked by Russia's expansionist ambitions and questions about the reliability of the United States as an ally.

"Russia is reconstituting itself at a pace and a speed which is unparalleled in recent history," he told the outlet, adding that "...they are now producing three times as much ammunition in three months as the whole of NATO is doing in a year. This is unsustainable, but the Russians are working together with the North Koreans, with the Chinese and Iranians, the mullahs, in fighting this unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine."

He emphasized the interconnectedness of security across different regions, noting that a secure Arctic is vital due to increased Chinese and Russian activity, and a secure Atlantic is "crucial" for the U.S. "If the Arctic, if the Atlantic Ocean, if Europe is not secure, the U.S. has a big problem," Rutte said, arguing that Russia is ultimately aiming to attack the U.S.

The Secretary General strongly dismissed Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's comments that NATO's new defense spending targets would "bankrupt" members.

"I know Sergey Lavrov very well. He has been foreign minister of Russia since the birth of Jesus Christ, and I’ve never taken him seriously. When you talk about fake news, listen to Sergey Lavrov," Rutte told the NYT. He believes Lavrov's comments are "clearly evidence that the deterrence is working."

Rutte acknowledged concerns about the defense industrial output across the alliance, adding that, "we simply lack the defense industrial base to produce the weapons we need to make sure that we can deter the Russians or the North Koreans or whoever to attack us." He underscored the importance of not just financial investment, but also having sufficient personnel and industrial capacity to effectively utilize weaponry.

On the subject of Ukraine, Rutte confirmed that European allies have significantly increased their financial commitment. "The Europeans have now cobbled together $35 billion in military aid this year to deliver to Ukraine, which is more than last year," he said. He viewed this as a logical and fair shift, with the U.S. expecting Europeans to "take more of the burden when it comes to the concrete support to Ukraine."

While acknowledging the complex discussions surrounding peace talks, Rutte recognized President Donald Trump's role in initiating dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"He is the one who broke the deadlock with Putin. When he became president in January, he started these discussions with Putin, and he was the only one who was able to do this. This had to happen. A direct dialogue between the American president and the president of the Russian Federation."

However, Rutte admitted that subsequent peace talks in Istanbul involved Russia sending a less serious delegation, leading to the conclusion that "we are not there yet, and that means that in the meantime you have to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to stay in the fight."

Despite some perceived divergences in approach between NATO and the U.S. regarding peace talks, Rutte insisted on the American administration's commitment to the conflict's importance.

"The American administration completely takes the view and shares it with the Europeans that this war in Ukraine is crucial for the defense of NATO territory going forward and that we have to make sure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position to stop the Russians from taking more territory, and that when it comes to a cease-fire or, even better, a peace deal, that Ukraine with some help will be able to prevent Putin from ever attacking Ukraine again in the future."

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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

U.S. Air Force General Alexus G. Grynkewich assumed command as the 21st Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) on July 4 during a ceremony at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte presided over the handover, commending outgoing U.S. Army General Christopher G. Cavoli for his contributions to modernizing NATO's collective defense and bolstering support for Ukraine.

Rutte highlighted Cavoli's efforts to strengthen NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea in response to threats to critical undersea infrastructure and credited him with conceiving and establishing NATO’s new command in Germany to enhance assistance to Ukraine. He also noted Cavoli's role in refocusing the Alliance on collective defense following the 2022 Madrid Summit, where NATO adopted a new Strategic Concept in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Cavoli played a central role in developing and securing approval for NATO’s regional defense plans at the 2023 Vilnius Summit—a significant overhaul of the Alliance’s military posture since the Cold War.

His tenure also included the integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO’s military structures, expanding the Alliance’s strategic reach. In 2024, Cavoli oversaw "Steadfast Defender," NATO’s largest military exercise since the Cold War, involving approximately 90,000 troops practicing large-scale reinforcement across the eastern flank and validating a new high-readiness force model.

Rutte specifically acknowledged Cavoli's leadership in rapidly reinforcing NATO's Baltic Sea presence during threats to underwater infrastructure and for establishing the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), which continues to support Ukraine.

The secretary general welcomed General Grynkewich, noting that, as a former fighter pilot, he brings "a deep understanding of the threats we face from the skies, and across other domains." Rutte added that Grynkewich’s recent role as Director of Operations of the Joint Staff provides him with broad experience in advancing military and security priorities amid global challenges.

Allied Command Operations—responsible for planning and executing all NATO operations—now falls under General Grynkewich's command, a position first held by General Dwight D. Eisenhower.

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The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on July 4 called on the United States to show "flexibility" in its military aid to Ukraine, after Washington unexpectedly paused some weapon deliveries citing concerns over dwindling domestic stockpiles.

The Pentagon's decision to halt transfers of artillery rounds and air defense systems coincides with a significant escalation in Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, exposing critical vulnerabilities in Ukraine's air defense capabilities as current US funding nears expiration this summer.

"The US has to make sure that the stockpiles are at the level we need for the U.S. to have, because they are crucial for our collective defense," Rutte told reporters on July 4. "At the same time, of course, we hope for the flexibility, we have to make sure also that Ukraine can move forward."

The Pentagon announced the aid pause this week, citing a review of U.S. stockpiles as it assesses the need to conserve weapons for other potential security threats. This move comes as Russia intensified its air campaign, unleashing record drone and missile strikes on Kyiv and other major urban centers overnight.

President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump by phone Friday, aiming to persuade the U.S. leader to resume deliveries and increase weapon sales to the country. Trump expressed disappointment following his latest conversation with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, which produced no progress toward a ceasefire in Russia's war against Ukraine, now in its fourth-year.

Given Russia's apparent unwillingness to pursue a ceasefire, allies must "be sure" Ukraine "has what it needs to stay in the fight," Rutte emphasized. He spoke after a ceremony welcoming Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, the new commander of U.S. military forces in Europe and top NATO military commander.

Grynkewich acknowledged the ongoing discussions, adding: "We’ll see more play out of the next week or two." He also announced a 90-day review of U.S. forces in Europe, examining potential future US posture in the region.

A broader US military review is expected later this summer, potentially outlining significant reductions in Europe. This prospect has already raised concerns among European NATO allies, who say they have received no prior information about these plans.

Death of top Russian oil executive fuels fresh scrutiny of elite’s ‘window falls’

The unexplained death of a top Russian oil executive on July 4 is fueling renewed scrutiny over the rising number of high-profile Russian officials and businessmen who have died under mysterious circumstances, specifically, have fallen out of windows. Andrei Badalov, vice president of Transneft, Russia’s largest state-controlled pipeline transport company,

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Germany is weighing a massive defense procurement plan worth up to 25 billion euros ($29.4 billion) to supply thousands of combat vehicles for NATO's expanding force structure, Bloomberg reported on July 4, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.  

The proposed purchases are part of a broader pan-European effort to boost deterrence against Russia, as Western leaders warn of the growing risk of a large-scale war within five years.

Berlin is reportedly considering purchasing up to 2,500 GTK Boxer armored vehicles and up to 1,000 Leopard 2 battle tanks. The purchase would equip up to seven new brigades that Germany has pledged to form under NATO's force generation plans for the next decade.

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The Leopard 2 tanks are produced by KNDS Deutschland and Rheinmetall, while the Boxer is made by ARTEC, a joint venture of the same companies. Leopard 2 tanks have been supplied to Ukraine and tested in combat.

Final pricing and quantities are still under negotiation, and the projected cost could fall below 25 billion euros ($29.4 billion) depending on procurement timelines and contract terms.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and top Bundeswehr officials are reviewing the plans, with legislative approval expected by the end of the year, Bloomberg reported.

Germany has faced pressure from NATO and Washington to meet its alliance commitments, including the newly adopted pledge to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense by 2035.

The initiative, endorsed on June 25 at the NATO summit, reflects concern over Russia's wartime economy, military buildup, and destabilization efforts across Europe.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on July 2 that he understands Washington's need to safeguard its own defense needs, but emphasized that Ukraine urgently requires sustained Western support.

"I totally understand that the U.S. always has to make sure its interests are covered," Rutte told Fox News. "When it comes to Ukraine, in the short term, Ukraine cannot do without all the support it can get."

His remarks come as the U.S. Defense Department has halted deliveries of key weapons systems previously promised to Kyiv, including Patriot missiles, precision-guided artillery shells, Hellfire missiles, and munitions compatible with F-16 fighter jets.

The White House confirmed the pause in shipments, citing a broader reassessment of U.S. military stockpiles. No new U.S. military aid packages have been approved since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January.

"I understand the U.S. has to take care of its stockpiles, and at the same time, we have to allow for some flexibility here," Rutte said. "Europeans, in the meantime, are really stepping up."

Military aid delays will ‘encourage Russia to continue war,’ Ukraine tells US envoy

Ukraine warned that “any delay or hesitation in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities will only encourage Russia to continue war and terror, rather than pursue peace.”

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

During last week's NATO summit in The Hague, Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky met behind closed doors. Rutte described the conversation as "a very good discussion, particularly focusing on air defense systems."

The reporting of paused deliveries comes as Ukraine faces one of the heaviest barrages of Russian drone and missile strikes since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry responded by saying it has not received formal notification of delays or cancellations and has requested urgent consultations with U.S. defense officials.

The Foreign Ministry summoned U.S. Charge d'Affaires John Ginkel the same day, warning that any hesitation in maintaining Ukraine's defense capabilities would embolden Russia.

The Kremlin welcomed the halt in arms shipments, saying it brings the war closer to an war.

"The fewer weapons that are supplied to Ukraine, the closer the end of the (war)," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in response to the information.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously indicated that the upcoming defense budget will scale back long-term military support for Ukraine, reflecting a shift in Washington's priorities.

‘Ukraine is biggest landmine challenge since World War II,’ says head of world’s largest demining organization

Russia’s full-scale invasion may have turned Ukraine into the world’s largest minefield. As of March 2025, Ukraine’s mine-affected land spans an estimated 139,000 square kilometers — or 23% of its territory — covering more ground than all of Greece and posing an immense threat to civilian life and recovery efforts.

The Kyiv IndependentDaria Shulzhenko

Norway will send F-35 fighter jets to Poland in the fall to protect the Rzeszow-Yasenka airport, one of the key transportation hubs for NATO military aid to Ukraine, Norwegian Defense Ministry announced on June 30.

The news came as Russia has escalated attacks against Ukrainian cities over the past weeks, launching record 400-500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) per night.

Norway is thus strengthening its contribution to NATO's air and missile defense, while the main goal of the mission is to support the protection of Polish airspace and a key logistics center for assistance to Ukraine, the statement read.

"This is a vital contribution. We are helping ensure that support to Ukraine reaches its destination, and that Ukraine can continue its fight for freedom," Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik said.

The Rzeszow-Jasionka airport is located less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the Ukrainian border and transports a significant percentage of Western materiel bound for the front lines in Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that 90% of aid for Ukraine was going through the airport in Rzeszow as of Novermber 2024.

It is also a main stopover point for foreign leadership traveling to Kyiv on official visits.

In January, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Berlin will deploy the promised Patriot air defenses around the Polish airport to protect it.

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Russia launched a record 5,337 Shahed-type drones against Ukraine in June, according to data from the Ukrainian Air Force and Dragon Capital, smashing the previous record of 4,198 set in March. Russia’s bombardments, a fact of life after three years of full-scale war, have intensified dramatically in May

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

NATO's increased defense spending will lead to the "collapse" of the alliance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on June 30, despite Russian officials recently warning that Moscow's own military expenditure is driving the country towards recession.

Lavrov's comments come after NATO leaders last week approved a new defense spending benchmark, committing members to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense and security-related expenditures by 2035, a goal long pushed by the U.S. and endorsed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

The week previously, and in a rare public sign that all is not well in Russia, two high-ranking Moscow officials issued separate warnings about the state of the country's economy.

Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov both highlighted that amid the Kremlin's full-scale war against Ukraine, the tools Moscow once relied on to maintain wartime growth are nearly exhausted.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on June 26 said an arms race between Russia and NATO could lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin's downfall.

"Since (Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski) is such a predictor, he probably foresees that a catastrophic increase in the budget of NATO countries, according to my estimates, will also lead to the collapse of this organization," Lavrov reportedly said.

Putin last week announced that Moscow plans to cut its military expenditure beginning next year, in a rebuke of NATO members' plans to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

"We are planning to reduce defence spending. For us, next year and the year after, over the next three-year period, we are planning for this," Putin said, though he did not provide concrete details.

"Europe is thinking about how to increase its spending, on the contrary. So, who is preparing for some kind of aggressive actions? Us or them?"

Western officials and analysts point to Russia's surging military expenditures amid its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2024, Russia's defense budget reportedly rose 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined spending of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NATO allies have cited Russia's military buildup, sabotage campaigns, and continued aggression against Ukraine as reasons to accelerate defense investments. Rutte warned that Russia could rebuild its military capacity to threaten NATO territory within five years, urging members to act with urgency.

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The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

German fighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea near NATO airspace on the morning of June 27, the German tabloid Bild reported.

The incident adds to a series of aerial provocations reported by NATO allies since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as Moscow is suspected of using the aircraft to spy on the alliance's positions.

The Russian Il-20M, which took off from Kaliningrad with its transponder switched off, was headed west toward international airspace near Poland and Germany when it was detected by NATO radar systems.

NATO alerted the German Armed Forces’ Quick Reaction Team (QRT), prompting the launch of two Eurofighter jets to intercept the aircraft.

The German jets made visual contact with the Russian plane approximately 100 kilometers off the German coast and took a photograph of it. Despite the interception, the Il-20M did not alter its course.

The Russian aircraft eventually veered north, just 40 kilometers from the Baltic Sea island of Usedom, avoiding a breach of German airspace.

According to Bild, this was the ninth such interception mission conducted by German forces in 2025.

As Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine and poses an increasing threat to NATO, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung published on June 27 that he would refrain from phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin given the intensified attacks on Ukraine.

Merz’s predecessor, Olaf Scholz, was the first EU leader from a country supporting Ukraine to resume direct contact with Putin since the start of the full-scale invasion, speaking with him by phone in November 2024.

Ukrainian drone strike on Crimea air base destroys 3 Russian helicopters, SBU claims

The attack destroyed Mi-8, Mi-26 and Mi-28 attack helicopters, and a Pantsyr-S1 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile and gun system, the Security Service of Ukraine told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on June 27 that Moscow plans to cut its military expenditure beginning next year, in a rebuke of NATO members' plans to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

Putin's claims will likely be met with harsh skepticism from Western officials as Russia's military spending has continued to increase throughout its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent cannot verify claims made by Putin. The Russian president did not provide any specifics as to how Moscow plans to cut military spending, but added there has yet to be an agreement between ministries.

"We are planning to reduce defence spending. For us, next year and the year after, over the next three-year period, we are planning for this," Putin told reporters during a visit to Belarus. "Europe is thinking about how to increase its spending, on the contrary. So who is preparing for some kind of aggressive actions? Us or them?" Putin continued.

Putin's comments comes as NATO allies are increasingly concerned about Russia's military capabilities, including future threats to alliance members as well as ongoing sabotage efforts.

On June 25, NATO member states agreed to a new defense spending benchmark, committing to allocate 5% of their GDP annually to defense and security-related expenditures by 2035.

The decision comes as NATO allies increasingly believe Russia could rebuild sufficient military capacity to challenge the alliance within five years, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warning that allies must act urgently to prepare for future threats.

"We see Russia's deadly terror from the skies over Ukraine every day. We must be able to defend ourselves from such attacks," Rutte said during a press briefing on June 23. "Our security environment has changed, and not for the better. The threats we face today demand that we do far more," he added.

Various European intelligence agencies as well as officials have increasingly delivered dire warnings about the threat emanating from Russia and Europe's current lack of preparedness. German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl told a parliamentary hearing in October that Russia will have the military capabilities to be able to attack NATO by 2030.

In 2024, Russia’s military spending surpassed the combined defense budgets of all European nations. Russia’s total defense expenditures surged by 42% in real terms amounting to $462 billion, according to the data by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

By comparison, total defense spending across Europe, including the U.K. and EU member states, increased by nearly 12% last year to $457 billion, slightly trailing Moscow’s budget.

The Moscow Times reported in December that the Kremlin had spent an unprecedented $43 billion in the third quarter of 2024 alone.

‘Putin cannot stop’ – Estonian foreign minister says war in Ukraine existential for Russian president

As Russia continues to intensify its onslaught on Ukraine more than three years into the full-scale invasion, Kyiv faces a new challenge – keeping its Western allies, namely the new U.S. administration, engaged in the struggle. This became clear during the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25, where

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

U.S. President Donald Trump promised during the NATO summit in The Hague that Russia would never attack the alliance while he is in office, the Washington Post reported on June 26, citing three unnamed European officials.

Speaking at a briefing in The Hague a day earlier, Trump, however, did not rule out that Russia has territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine.

"It's possible," he said.

Still, the U.S. president immediately downplayed Moscow's threat and aggression against Ukraine, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin was "misguided."

Foreign officials and EU diplomats have increasingly called for the preparation for a potential full-scale conflict between NATO and Russia.

Trump's remarks came days after President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine's intelligence has proof that Russia is preparing new military operations in Europe and just a week after Putin declared "all of Ukraine is ours."

During the summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on alliance members to be realistic about the threats posed by Russia and China. Previously, he warned that Russia could be ready to launch an attack against the alliance within five years.

Amid rising threats from Russia, NATO member states have agreed to a new defense spending benchmark, committing to allocate 5% of their gross domestic product annually to defense and security-related expenditures by 2035.

In early June, German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl said Russia may try to test NATO’s unity with provocations beyond Ukraine, as some Russian officials believe that the alliance's collective defense principle no longer works.

Putin under pressure to declare war on Ukraine, but experts say Russia isn’t ready

Despite suffering over 1 million casualties, pounding Ukrainian cities nightly with missiles and drones, and committing countless war crimes, one startling fact about Russia’s full-scale invasion remains — Moscow has yet to officially declare war on Ukraine. In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin described what he believed was going to be a swift victory and the capture of Kyiv within days as a “special military operation.” Nearly three-and-a-half years later, the Kremlin is stuck

The Kyiv IndependentChris York