On 19 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine’s security guarantees are expected to be formalized on paper within the next 7–10 days. Speaking at a briefing in Washington, he said the document will include a US weapons package worth $90 billion.

At the same pace of weapons supply, this funding could last for 4.5 years of military support in the event of a new attack.

“Security guarantees will be coordinated with our partners and officially signed in the near future,” Zelenskyy stressed.

He noted that the second key element of the guarantees is an American defense package worth $90 billion, which includes aircraft, air defense systems, and other weaponry. He added that more details on the future agreements will emerge daily.

Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine does not need a “pause in the war,” but real peace. He highlighted the important role of the US in the process.

“Washington is sending a clear signal that it will be among the countries helping to coordinate and participate in Ukraine’s security guarantees. This is a significant step forward,” he said. 

After the meeting with US President Donald Trump, which Zelenskyy called “the best” he ever had, he also stated that Ukraine is ready for any format of meeting with Vladimir Putin.

What else is known?

• During Putin’s conversation with Donald Trump, Russia proposed holding a bilateral meeting with Kyiv first, followed by a trilateral one with the US,
• The issue of territories will be settled directly between Ukraine and Russia,
• During a lengthy discussion with Trump, they reviewed a map of temporarily occupied territories,
• An agreement was reached with the US on the purchase of drones for Ukrainian forces.

Chikungunya, which can disable victims for years, is spreading rapidly, including in China and other places that have not seen it before.

© Tyrone Siu/Reuters

Sir Keir Starmer praised the White House meeting with eight European leaders, including Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, and Donald Trump as a ‘historic step’ towards ending Vladimir Putin’s war

© AFP/Getty

The release of Sergei Tikhanovsky and 13 other political prisoners in Belarus was a diplomatic win for the Trump administration.

© Wojtek Radwanski/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Ukraine imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s artificial intelligence-powered drone manufacturers on 17 August, targeting 39 individuals and 55 companies across Russia, China, and Belarus.

The restrictions reflect Ukraine’s efforts towards dismantling the entire technological ecosystem of Russia’s drone war, which has escalated dramatically in 2025 with Moscow launching over 27,000 Shahed drones and deploying new AI-guided models that can evade Ukrainian electronic warfare systems.

Ukrainian sanctions have had little impact on Russia, remaining largely symbolic after Kyiv previously seized Russian companies’ assets inside the country. Still, it sets an example for the EU – and possibly the US – to follow if they choose to eventually align their sanctions with Ukraine, a move that would carry far greater weight.

President Zelenskyy signed the decree enacting the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, stating that the country is “working with its partners to ensure the synchronization of these sanctions across global jurisdictions.”

Russia’s AI drone revolution poses new threat

The sanctions target key Russian strike and FPV drone developers including Zala Aero, Smart Birds, and Vostok Design Bureau, as well as specialized centers developing AI solutions for drones, including Neurolab and the Center for Unmanned Systems and Technologies, according to the presidential decree.

These restrictions come as Russia has been deploying increasingly sophisticated AI-powered drones that feature onboard cameras and artificial intelligence, making interception significantly harder than conventional radio-controlled models. Separately, Ukrainian intelligence analysis of Russia’s V2U autonomous attack drone revealed it uses a Chinese Leetop A203 minicomputer and NVIDIA Jetson Orin processor for target selection without human intervention.

Chinese supply chain enables Russian drone production

Among the 55 sanctioned entities, 10 Chinese companies face restrictions for supplying critical components. Recent investigations revealed Chinese firms have been secretly supplying Russia with drone engines disguised as refrigeration equipment to bypass Western sanctions.

Chinese components dominate Russian drone manufacturing, with 80% of critical electronics having Chinese origins. Bloomberg investigations found that Chinese engineers from Autel Robotics worked directly with Russian company Aero-HIT to adapt civilian drones for military use, producing up to 10,000 units monthly.

How do you score a three-hour meeting that produces no deal to end a war? If you’re Donald Trump, the answer is simple: 10 out of 10. The president emerged from his Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin declaring total success despite acknowledging that “not all points were agreed upon” and confirming there was “no deal” on ending the Russo-Ukrainian war. His reasoning? “We got along great,” Trump told Fox News. But here’s where it gets interesting. Trump immediately shifted responsibility for any future agreement to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“Now it’s really up to President Zelenskyy to get it done,” he said, announcing plans for a trilateral meeting between himself, Putin, and the Ukrainian leader.

What actually happened in that room? The 15 August meeting at Elmendorf-Richardson military base started as a planned one-on-one but expanded to include six officials total. Trump brought Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff. Putin arrived with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and presidential assistant Yury Ushakov. The substance? Trump says he and Putin agreed on territorial exchanges and American security guarantees for Ukraine.

“I think those are the points we discussed, and those are the points on which we mostly reached agreement,” he told Fox News, describing the atmosphere as “warm.”

Here’s the catch: Trump refused to detail what’s actually preventing a final deal. He would only say he wanted to “see what we can do.” Why the confidence then? Trump believes momentum is building.

“I think we’re pretty close to the end,” he said, though he added a crucial caveat: “Ukraine has to agree to this.”

For Putin, the direct talks with a US leader offered symbolic validation after years of isolation, though his demands—including Ukraine’s withdrawal from occupied regions, forsaking NATO membership, and sanction relief—amount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was excluded from the summit, sparking concerns among European allies that Kyiv could be pressured into territorial concessions. The US president wasted no time following up. He called Zelenskyy the morning after his Putin meeting—16 August—in what both the White House and Zelenskyy’s office described as a “lengthy” conversation that included NATO leaders. 

Trump’s advice to the Ukrainian president was blunt: “A deal needs to be made.”

Both sides called the nearly three-hour Alaska session “constructive” without providing specifics. Trump said he achieved “really significant progress” with Putin, whom he described as a “strong guy” and “incredibly tough.”

But there’s a complication. Putin’s assistant Yury Ushakov—the same aide who sat in that Alaska meeting—told Russian media that “the topic of holding a trilateral summit of Putin, Trump and Zelenskyy has not yet been raised.” Russian officials also said they don’t know when Putin and Trump will meet again.

President Trump referred to the authoritarian ruler of Belarus, who has been isolated by the West for years, “the highly respected President.”

© Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press

The upcoming summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, has reignited Russian imperial rhetoric precisely as Moscow seeks to demonstrate its global reach while pressuring Ukraine to cede territory. 

The summit venue has brought renewed attention to longstanding Russian territorial claims, with statements resurfacing in which Russian state and media figures suggest the US state belongs to Moscow ahead of Friday’s meeting.

Russian state media propagandists have already arrived in Alaska to make a news report saying that the American state has "more than 700 toponyms with Russian roots."

Propagandists keep making hints about taking Alaska back. https://t.co/UtPsboCliP pic.twitter.com/loqjHZJTWN

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 11, 2025

Russian officials have a history of territorial claims

State television propagandist Olga Skabeyeva has referred to the state as “our Alaska” during broadcasts in 2024. The same year, Deputy Security Council Chair Dmitry Medvedev joked on social media about going to war with the US over the territory.

Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev described Alaska as “an American of Russian origin” during recent summit discussions. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin previously warned that Moscow would lay claim to the state if Washington froze Russian assets abroad.

In 2022, Billboards reading “Alaska Is Ours!” appeared in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia.

Some of the historic Russian orthodox churches in Alaska. pic.twitter.com/E4wcgG3mdU

— Kirill A. Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) August 9, 2025

Alaska, the former Russian colony

Alaska was colonized by Russia from 1799 to 1867, and was administered by about 700 Russians across a territory larger than Texas. Russia sold Alaska to the United States in 1867 for $7.2 million following Russia’s defeat in the Crimean War. Nearly all Russian settlers left after the purchase, though Russian Orthodox churches remain throughout the state.

The state’s closest point lies just 3.8 kilometers from Russia across the Bering Strait, between Little Diomede Island (US) and Big Diomede Island (Russia). There are 89 kilometers between the mainlands of the two countries. 

Trump-Putin summit

Trump and Putin will meet Friday in Anchorage to discuss ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump has indicated he expects “some land-swapping” in any potential deal, while Putin demands Ukraine abandon NATO aspirations and recognize Russian territorial conquests.

In the press conference about the summit on 11 August, President Trump appeared to slip up, referring to the meeting location as “Russia”. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not initially invited to the summit, though the White House is considering extending an invitation.

The summit will reportedly include discussions of a potential minerals deal, with Trump expected to present resource partnership proposals to Putin during the meeting, according to The Telegraph.

There are concerns about the slow pace of change in the country, with a promised election still months away, a struggling economy and familiar problems persisting.

© Munir Uz Zaman/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Belarus will practice “planning the use” of nuclear weapons and Oreshnik missiles during joint military exercises with Russia scheduled for 12-16 September, Defense Minister Viktor Krenin announced, according to Belarusian state news agency BELTA.

“We will, of course, within the framework of the West-2025 exercise, together with our Russian colleagues, work out issues of planning the use of this type of weapons,” Krenin said when asked whether the drills would include planning for nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile system.

The Belarusian defense chief emphasized that “nuclear weapons are capable of inflicting unacceptable damage on potential adversaries” while describing them primarily as “an important element of strategic deterrence.”

Krenin repeated Russian narratives about the alleged “militarization” and “military activity” of the West along Belarus’s western and northern borders. He warned that NATO leadership was supposedly using West-2025 as a pretext for conducting their own exercises and threatened a “response.”

“What worries us most is the decision of the Polish military leadership to create a grouping of more than 30-34 thousand servicemen. In our opinion, this is already a serious grouping. We need to monitor this very carefully (and we will do this) and react. If they show any aggression towards the Republic of Belarus, we have something to respond with,” the minister expressed particular concern about Polish military plans.

Historical Context

Russia accumulated military forces in Belarus before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, officially citing joint exercises as justification. In February 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine from Belarusian territory and subsequently launched ballistic missiles at Ukrainian targets from Belarus.

In December 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Oreshnik systems could be deployed in Belarus in 2025, using the weapon system to pressure the West after Ukraine received permission for long-range strikes against Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that Putin was “waving the Oreshnik” to prevent US President Donald Trump from ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced Ukraine was developing its own air defense system and missile system as a deterrent against Oreshnik strikes.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has made contradictory statements about receiving the Oreshnik system, claiming in January 2025 that Belarus would receive it “any day,” then acknowledging in March that the promised weapons had not arrived. In July, Lukashenko stated the Oreshnik would allegedly be deployed in Belarus by year’s end.

Russian propaganda threatens Azerbaijan with war over support for Ukraine. Pro-Kremlin media have intensified anti-Baku rhetoric, escalating accusations against the country of being “Western sellouts.” 

On 11 August, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a decree allocating $2 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine following Russian strikes on the state-owned SOCAR’s oil depot in Odesa Oblast and a gas compressor station that transports Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine.

The funds will be used to purchase electrical equipment for Ukraine.

“The Russian propaganda has launched a new wave of harsh anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric, ranging from accusations of being ‘Western sellouts’ to direct threats of war,” says the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Moscow is losing control over the South Caucasus 

As explained by the Center, the Kremlin is increasingly losing influence over Azerbaijan and can no longer impose its political or economic will. Therefore, Kremlin propaganda intensifies pressure through threats and war rhetoric to rally its domestic audience.

“Moscow can no longer dictate its political or economic will to Azerbaijan. Thus, propaganda tries to compensate for the loss of real leverage with threats,” the Center notes.

Azerbaijan strengthens its fight against Russian propaganda

Baku is actively freeing itself from Russian dominance: recently, the “Russkiy Dom” was closed, and the activities of Russian propaganda media have been restricted in the country.

The “Russkiy Dom” in Baku was a Russian information and cultural center functioning as a representative office of the agency engaged in strengthening Russia’s humanitarian influence abroad, in Azerbaijan. The center faced accusations of espionage activities disguised as cultural work.

A restoration of a beloved figure of the Virgin Mary causes an uproar. “The Macarena cannot be made up!”

© Ilvy Njiokiktjien for The New York Times

Canada joins EU and UK to lower the Russian oil price cap to $47.60 in a move aimed at cutting Kremlin revenues while avoiding shocks to global markets. The change, due in early September, leaves Japan and the US as the only G7 members not adopting the reduced limit.

Canada aligns with European allies on oil sanctions

On 8 August, the Department of Finance of Canada confirmed Ottawa will match the European Union and United Kingdom in reducing the price cap on seaborne Russian-origin crude oil from $60 to $47.60 per barrel. The measure is part of the G7-led sanctions mechanism introduced in December 2022 to restrict Moscow’s war funding. The coalition also includes Australia and New Zealand.

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the cut would increase economic pressure on Russia and limit a crucial source of funding for its war in Ukraine. Foreign Minister Anita Anand stressed Canada’s commitment to applying sustained pressure on Moscow. Kyiv has pressed for an even lower $30 limit.

Japan and US not joining the cut

Most G7 members will introduce the lower cap in September. Japan and the US have not signed on, but Canada remains part of the Price Cap Coalition and may follow future reductions agreed within the group.

Lithuania may have become the target of a Russian underwater drone, right off its own coast. In early August, near the resort town of Nida, the drone likely entered Lithuanian territorial waters from the direction of Russia, Delfi reports.

Locals noticed the unusual behavior of a border patrol boat. A coast guard vessel was seen chasing an unidentified object in the Curonian Lagoon, an area where active operations are rarely conducted.

Underwater provocation near Nida

Aistė Žalneraitienė, senior specialist at the State Border Guard Service, confirmed the incident: on 2 August, a suspicious object was indeed detected in the reported place and is currently being examined by the Criminal Investigation Department.

Preliminary assessments suggest the drone may have been launched from Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast, which is one of the main hubs of Russian military activity near NATO borders.

“Gerbera” strikes again

This is not the first incident involving Russian unmanned systems in Lithuania. On 1 August, debris from a Gerbera drone, widely used in Ukraine’s war, was found at the Gaižiūnai military training ground in the Jonava District. The drone was likely launched from Belarus. The incident was confirmed by Lithuania’s Minister of National Defense, Dovilė Šakalienė.

A week earlier, another drone of the same type crashed near the closed Šumskas border checkpoint, almost directly on the Belarusian border.

In July, a Russian drone also violated Lithuanian airspace near Vilnius. It flew at an altitude of 200 meters and remained in Lithuanian airspace for about half an hour.

Following this series of violations, Lithuanian armed forces will implement additional security measures.

Earlier, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Head, Sergey Naryshkin, warned that Poland and the Baltic states would be the first to suffer in the event of a war between Moscow and NATO. In 2025, Russia plans to train and station up to 150,000 additional troops in Belarus.

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With the midterm elections looming, Republicans are trying to secure every advantage they can as they face the prospect of Democrats taking control of the House.

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Under Obama, federal rules pushed universities to build new bureaucracies to address sexual misconduct. Trump is doubling down on that tactic for antisemitism claims.

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Ukraine’s allies will spend millions of dollars for weapons for Kyiv. Sweden, Norway, and Denmark have jointly allocated over $500 million to purchase American weapons for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces.

“Plus $500 million — the total amount from our friends in Northern Europe… This will be implemented under NATO coordination,” Zelenskyy says.

According to the new mechanism, Ukraine compiles a list of priority needs in packages of approximately $500 million. Then, the partner countries can:

• provide their own weapons from the list and immediately purchase the US equivalent — bypassing bureaucracy,
• or order weapons directly from the US or through NATO.

This approach significantly speeds up logistics and replenishment of allied arsenals.

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Unity of arms and action

The Ukrainian president has thanked the prime ministers of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for their concrete support that “increases Ukraine’s capacity to protect lives.”

“This will be a good example for other NATO countries… to guarantee protection against Russian strikes,” Zelenskyy emphasizes.

The PURL initiative becomes a new bridge between America and Europe in the defense sector, and another signal to Moscow: Western support is not weakening but growing.

More than deliveries

The Ukrainian president has stressed that such projects strengthen Ukraine’s own defense production as well as joint defense initiatives with partners. This builds a new architecture of European security based on powerful cooperation.

“Russia will never turn Europe into a continent of war… we guarantee that peace will prevail,” Zelenskyy states.

In just two days, Ukraine received nearly $1 billion in international arms aid — after €500 million from the Netherlands, another half a billion came from Northern Europe.

In a citywide campaign to curb a mosquito-borne virus, residents of Foshan face inspections and warnings for failure to comply.

© Visual China Group, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The United States has accused Russia of violating the pact, which expired in 2019, for more than a decade.

© Pool photo by Evgenia Novozhenina

The Kremlin again threatens Europe with missiles. The Russian Foreign Ministry has announced that the country is lifting its self-imposed restriction on the deployment of land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 km, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 

Now, Moscow reverses course: it has lifted the restriction, blames the West, and claims a threat from American missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. The official reason: “steps by the collective West” that, according to the Kremlin, “destabilize the situation in border regions.”

“The Russian Foreign Ministry acknowledges the disappearance of conditions for maintaining the unilateral moratorium on the deployment of such weapons,” the statement says.

 

The US and NATO: Russia lied and violated the moratorium

Western states already claimed in 2019 that Russia had de facto violated the agreement — the main evidence being the 9M729 missile system, which, according to the US and NATO, has a range exceeding 500 km.

Moscow denies it, but reality suggests otherwise: the missiles exist, and now the Kremlin officially admits it is ready to deploy them. This move threatens to spark a new arms race and escalate security risks not only for Ukraine but for all of Europe.

Russia unleashes 9M729 “Oreshnik” missile on Dnipro in 2024

In November 2024, Russia launched a 9M729 missile at the city of Dnipro, marking the first confirmed combat use of the controversial system, also known by the codename “Oreshnik”. The missile was equipped with six warheads, each capable of independent targeting. The extent of damage remains undisclosed. 

 

Western weapons production is under threat. China has cut off critical supplies to the US defense industry by restricting access to vital minerals. Companies are delaying deliveries, searching for new sources worldwide, and prices for some resources have skyrocketed 60-fold, The Wall Street Journal reports. 

China cuts off access to rare earth elements

In response to the escalating trade war with the US, Beijing tightened export controls on rare earth elements — essential for manufacturing weapons, from drones to fighter jets. Today, China controls about 90% of the global rare earth minerals market. American manufacturers have become dependent on Chinese suppliers.

Companies are already reporting major disruptions. One drone manufacturer had to delay shipments by two months while searching for non-Chinese magnets. Prices for samarium, a mineral needed for magnets that withstand extreme temperatures, have increased 60 times. The mineral restrictions highlight just how dependent the US military is on China.

Ban on germanium, gallium, and antimony hits night vision and munitions

Since December, China has officially banned exports to the US of germanium, gallium, and antimony — minerals used in machine guns, shells, and night vision devices. Manufacturers are already sounding the alarm.

The CEO of American firm Leonardo DRS stated that germanium reserves are at the limit. This element is critical for infrared sensors in missiles. The company is actively searching for substitutes and new sources.

The Pentagon has ordered a phase-out of Chinese rare earth magnets by 2027, but most companies only have a few months of stock left.

Chinese control: How one customs office disrupted US ammunition transit

Even alternative routes are failing. In April, Chinese customs in Ningbo detained 55 tons of antimony in transit, which the United States Antimony Corporation was shipping from Australia to its plant in Mexico. After three months, the cargo was forced to return to Australia. Upon arrival, seals were found damaged, and the company is now investigating whether the antimony was contaminated or counterfeit.

Without new sources of mineral extraction, production will inevitably shrink, defense industry representatives warn.

American B-2 strategic bombers flew tens of thousands of kilometers from US airbases to Iran, carried out strikes on targets, and returned. This demonstrative action was intentional, aimed at showing the world that the US remains the unquestionable military leader, Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s Intelligence Defense chief, told Nataliia Moseichuk.

The war began on 13 June 2025, when Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Iran responded with massive missile and drone attacks targeting both military and civilian sites in Israel. On 22 June, the US joined the fighting, striking three of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The war ended with a fragile ceasefire. No official peace agreements were signed, and tensions remain high.

“The US has now regained unquestionable military leadership in the world. They showed everyone: we can do it, if we decide to,” claimed Budanov. 

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Strike from the US: more expensive, but symbolically stronger

Budanov emphasized that the US had simpler options — to launch strikes from bases in Europe or the Middle East. But they deliberately chose the longest route — from their own territory, accompanied by tankers and fighter jets.

“It would have been cheaper economically, logistically easier, tactically easier… But they made a demonstrative move — the most powerful one. At one moment, B-2s took off from US airbases… They flew in from the States, bombed the targets, and returned,” he explained.

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“No one else can”

When asked whether this maneuver impressed Putin, Budanov replied directly: yes, and very much so. The US showed that it can strike any point on the globe.

“It made a deep impression on him. Very deep. No one had done anything like this before. And frankly, no one else can,” said Budanov.

A drone that crossed into Lithuania from Belarus on 28 July has been located at the Gajžiūnai military training ground in Jonava district, the Belarusian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.

Lithuania’s Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene confirmed the discovery to the Baltic News Service (BNS). 

The unmanned aircraft was discovered more than 100 kilometers from the Belarusian border. The drone resembles the Russian “Gerbera” decoy drone, designed to deceive air defense systems by mimicking the Iranian Shahed combat drone, according to earlier reports.

Military investigators and bomb disposal experts are working at the site where the drone was found.

On the morning of 28 July, Lithuanian police warned citizens about the intrusion of an unidentified unmanned aircraft from Belarusian territory. Darius Buta, chief advisor of the National Crisis Management Center (NKVC), told the news portal Delfi that the drone was detected at an altitude of approximately 200 meters and was last seen near Vilnius.

Drone incidents

On 10 July, State Border Service personnel spotted an unknown object in the air flying at approximately 100 meters altitude at 50-60 km/h speed. Within minutes, it crashed near the closed Sumskas checkpoint, about one kilometer from the Belarus border. The object was identified as a Russian “Gerbera” type drone.

On 28 July, Lithuanian police reported detecting an unidentified drone type that entered the country from Belarus territory. Social media footage showing the drone suggests it resembles a Shahed or its Russian imitation “Gerbera,” according to Delfi, though the drone type is still being determined.

Belarus is a key ally of Russia, primarily due to their deep military, political, and economic cooperation. The country allowed Russian troops to use its territory for military operations, including during the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and hosts some Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

Lithuania will deploy a Ukrainian-developed acoustic drone detection system starting in 2026, the country’s Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Raimundas Vaiknoras announced to LRT.

The deployment announcement comes after another incident involving a drone entering Lithuanian airspace. When asked whether Lithuania would have an acoustic drone detection system, Vaiksnoras confirmed that budget funds have already been allocated for purchasing the systems.

According to the Armed Forces chief, testing will be conducted by the end of the year, and next year there will be more intensive implementation of these systems.

“They have been known since last autumn, but procedural issues were somewhat delayed because this is a Ukrainian system, one could say, which had to be adapted to our implementation of American systems due to sensitive issues,” Vaiksnoras said.

The general noted that two drones that flew into Lithuania the day before “are not a coincidence.”

“It seems to me that we sometimes forget that we actually live very close to the combat zone. Belarus is used as a platform for Russia’s attack on Ukraine, so drones moving through our territory are the same thing that Poles, Romanians, and Latvians experience. This situation will not change while Ukraine is under attack by Russia,” the Armed Forces chief added.

Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has cynically commented on the war in Ukraine for the first time since US President Donald Trump issued his 10-day ultimatum on Russia. Last week, the American president gave Russia ten days to reach a peaceful settlement, threatening massive sanctions if this does not happen by 8 August, UNIAN reports.

Moscow is ready to wait

During a meeting with the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, Putin spoke positively about the negotiations in Turkiye and the prisoner exchanges, stating that Moscow is “ready to wait” if Kyiv is not prepared for talks.

At the same time, he said the Ukrainian political regime “is not based on the Constitution” and supports prolonged negotiations “without any time limits.”

In June, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that the Kremlin used prisoner exchanges as a tool to delay the negotiation process with Ukraine and dodge sanctions. While sending back Ukrainian prisoners of war, beaten and tortured in captivity, Russia does not agree to any other proposition to end the war. 

Ukrainian soldier dies weeks after release from Russian captivity with his organs failing due to torture

Kremlin’s conditions remain the same as last year 

Putin confirmed that Russia’s conditions for ending the war, announced back in summer 2024, remain unchanged.

Last year, he insisted on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Moscow has illegally incorporated these Ukrainian regions into its Constitution. Additionally, Russia demands that Ukraine renounce NATO membership, enshrine a non-nuclear status, and lift sanctions.

Lukashenko says Zelenskyy should ask Putin to negotiate

In talks with propagandists, Putin boasted about the production of the first serial ballistic missile Oreshnik and the Russian army’s offensive along the entire front line.

In 2024, Russia used a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) missile armed with conventional warheads to strike Dnipro. While MIRV technology has long been associated with nuclear delivery systems, this marked its first use in combat. The scale of the destruction remains unknown. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia targeted industrial facilities and critical infrastructure in Dnipro.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko urged Zelenskyy “to simply sit down at the negotiating table” with Putin and emphasized that Minsk and Moscow will not kneel because they decisively defend their interests.

According to media reports, at least 96 Russian drones violated Belarusian airspace in July, marking the heaviest month of drone incursions so far. These Russian long-range drones came from Ukraine and crossed into Belarus skies repeatedly during the month, with one night alone seeing 26 of them entering.

Russia attacks Ukrainian cities with long-range explosive drones every day, sometimes launching hundreds in a single night. On occasion, some of these drones — Shahed one-way attack UAVs and Gerbera decoy drones — end up crossing into Belarus, a Russian ally. This can happen if they veer off course, are thrown off by electronic warfare interference, or are intentionally routed through Belarus airspace. From there, they may loop back into Ukraine or head north toward Lithuania, probing NATO air defenses that, so far, have not managed to bring these drones down.

96 Russian drones in Belarus create record month of incursions

Belsat reported that in the early hours of 30 July, at least 26 Russian Shahed drones flew into Belarus airspace. According to the Homiel-based news site Flagshtok, this pushed the July total to at least 96 drones. The figure set a new record, with previous months showing far fewer flights. Flagstok said the last peak was in January, but July exceeded it.

Reports described how late in the evening on that day, observers noticed three drones near Khoiniki and Naroulia. Two of them moved toward Brahin. Later, five more drones were seen heading toward Brahin and further toward Ukraine’s Zhytomyr Oblast. Another three drones appeared over Homiel Oblast. One flew over Mazyr, while another was heard south of Homiel. Drones also appeared in the areas of Naroulia and Loieu. Witnesses said the sound of their engines was clearly heard during the night.

On 29 July, one of the Russian drones fell on the outskirts of Minsk. Authorities in Belarus admitted the crash but claimed that the drone was allegedly Ukrainian. This version was met with doubt because witnesses said the drone came from the direction of Russia. BELPOL, citing witnesses, reported that the drone engine noise was heard in Astrashytski Haradok and Baravliany, both located north of Minsk.

Belsat said that in all of 2023, at least 145 Russian Shahed drones entered Belarus. Of those, 109 disappeared from radars, while 36 continued toward Ukraine. 

 

At the U.N., he took on some of the world’s most challenging health crises in troubled areas, skillfully coordinating international efforts to reduce the spread of disease

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RFE/RL reports that the luxury life of customs official has triggered protests after an investigation revealed villas, cars and expensive foreign schooling that far exceed his declared income. The Schemes investigative unit of RFE/RL examined the finances of 44-year-old Anatolii Komar, head of the Ukrainian Customs Service department that manages duties on energy imports and exports.

Luxury life of customs official draws anger

RFE/RL says Komar’s family has access to luxury real estate, elite foreign education and high-end cars while his official monthly income is about $2,000. His wife Maria declares about $8,000 per month as a tour guide and online course provider, but this sum still cannot cover the expenses shown.

Social media posts reveal their daughter graduating in 2023 from the Pascal English School in Nicosia, Cyprus, with fees close to $30,000 per year. Other posts show her traveling to Venice, Montreux, Dublin and Albania. This year, she appears to be enrolled at King’s College London, where tuition for non-UK students is nearly $35,000 annually.

Mansion near Kyiv and cash from relatives

According to the report, the family does not live in the Kyiv apartment officially registered to Komar in 2021. Instead, they live in an apartment bought by Maria’s father, Serhii Hladkov. Hladkov also built a 450-square-meter house with a pool and staff quarters in February 2025 in the village of Vyshenky near Kyiv. Experts interviewed by RFE/RL valued the property at more than $1 million.

Hladkov and his wife, Lidia, both retired from modestly paid state jobs, later declared self-employment earnings of about $400,000 and $180,000 respectively. Despite this, they have purchased several properties and gifted almost $120,000 to the family. Hladkov told RFE/RL that he had earned the money and then ended the conversation.

The luxury Mercedes and a “wealthy godfather”

Komar has been driving a Mercedes S-class since 2021. He told RFE/RL that the car is rented by his wife and refused to disclose the price. RFE/RL reports that rental companies estimate the cost at $6,000 per month. The vehicle is registered to the Primorskiy Energy Generating Company, which declared only about $14,000 in three years of car rental income, a figure far below market value. The company’s director, Roman Vorobel, refused to answer detailed questions and said he would consult a lawyer.

Conflict of interest questions over VM Groupe

RFE/RL also found that Komar is president of an amateur soccer club in his hometown of Rokyta. The team is sponsored by VM Groupe, an importer of petroleum products that is under investigation by law enforcement for large-scale tax evasion and by the SBU for importing Russian raw materials.

Moscow is hunting for missile and drone components. According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Belarus is rapidly expanding its military production to compensate for a shortage of components in Russia’s defense industry.

“Moscow is looking for alternative sources of components, particularly for drones and missile systems, amid Western sanctions and logistical barriers. The Belarusian government is accelerating the launch of facilities tied to UAVs, dual-use electronics, and targeting systems,” the agency reports.

Civilian projects frozen, military ones prioritized

Belarus’s innovation strategy previously focused on civilian sectors, such as agricultural machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food production. Now, military development is the priority.

“Most army-related facilities are expected to be constructed and operational within one to one and a half years,” the Ukrainian Intelligence notes.

For example, a plant producing composite drone components was built based on the Multipurpose UAV Technology Center. The project, frozen in 2020, was revived after the full-scale war began. By late 2024, the factory was built and equipped, and production began in February 2025.

Sights, auto parts, and microchips for Kh-101 missiles

The Zenit-BelOMO plant is launching production of targeting systems and auto components for the CIS market. Production lines are set to open in August, with the plant expected to reach full capacity by year’s end.

Meanwhile, the Integral plant is expanding its production of dual-use microchips, which can be employed in guidance systems for Russia’s Kh-101 cruise missiles.

“A new workshop is expected to be operational in December, and full-scale production is planned for 2026,” the Ukrainian Intelligence adds.

Ukraine “could yet join” the European Union’s new IRIS² satellite network, as the country continues to rely on Elon Musk’s Starlink for military communications during the war against Russia. Euroactiv reports that European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius said Ukraine, together with the UK and Norway, is welcome to participate in the multibillion-euro program, which is designed as a secure alternative to Starlink.

EU considers Ukraine for IRIS² satellite program

Kubilius told Euroactiv that non-EU countries such as Ukraine, the United Kingdom and Norway could join the IRIS² network once it becomes operational. Norway has already started negotiations with the European Commission, but talks with Ukraine and the United Kingdom have not yet begun.

He stressed that he would not be opposed to their participation. Iceland, which like Norway is part of the European Economic Area, concluded negotiations earlier this month to take part in the IRIS² program.

In December 2024 the European Commission signed a 12‑year concession contract with the SpaceRISE consortium to create and operate the IRIS² secure satellite system. IRIS², which stands for Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity, and Security by Satellite, will consist of a multi‑orbital constellation of 290 satellites. The project is one of the European Union’s flagship programs aimed at strengthening sovereignty in space and ensuring secure connectivity.

The constellation is projected to cost €10.6 billion, and is planned as an EU-built secure communication system to reduce dependence on external providers. 

EU Space Act

Kubilius made his remarks after the European Commission presented a draft EU Space Act in Brussels on 25 June. The proposal triggered intense discussions over the future rules for space services. He said that so far there has been no negative reaction from the United States.

 

 

Belarus neutralized an unidentified drone in Minsk airspace on the morning of 29 July, according to the country’s Defense Ministry.

Belarus is a key ally of Russia, primarily due to their deep military, political, and economic cooperation. The country allowed Russian troops to use its territory for military operations, including during the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and hosts some Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

Air defense forces detected the “unknown aerial target” around 2:00 am, the ministry reported. No casualties were reported.

The ministry announced the start of the investigation into this fact.

The drone crashed in a residential area near a daycare center, landing in the courtyard of a building at 72 Matusevicha Street, according to local media reports.

Belarus has previously intercepted drones in its airspace. In July, a Belarusian Mi-24 helicopter shot down a Russian “Gerbera” drone that was reportedly heading toward Ukraine.

The Defense Ministry has not disclosed the drone’s origin or purpose.

On 28 July, an unidentified unmanned aircraft violated Lithuania’s airspace, likely originating from Belarusian territory. According to LRT, residents began reporting drone sightings to police early 28 July morning, with witnesses describing an aircraft flying at approximately 200 meters altitude near the capital Vilnius.

The event is part of a broader pattern of Russian drones occasionally crossing into NATO countries’ airspace amid rising regional tensions and military exercises planned by Russia and Belarus.

Washington speaks the language of deadlines, while Moscow responds with threats. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is suggesting that US President Donald Trump’s pressure could provoke a broader, direct confrontation with the US itself. 

His furious speech came after Trump issued a new ultimatum to the Kremlin — just 10 days to reach a peace agreement on Ukraine, not 50, as he announced before. Also, the US president said he was tired of receiving no results from any peace talks with Russia, which bring only more deaths in Ukraine. Thus, he does not want to continue negotiations with Moscow and will pay attention only to real actions from Russia. 

Medvedev, as usual, reacted with a series of angry threats on social network X.

“Trump’s playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10… He should remember 2 things:
1. Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran.
2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war. Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country,” he wrote. 

However, it’s unclear whether Russia is now capable of really waging the war against the US. The Russian economy is declining, and during three and a half years, Moscow managed to occupy only 20% of Ukrainian territory. 

Medvedev also scornfully warned Trump, “Don’t go down the Sleepy Joe road,” clearly mocking Joe Biden. The US cut off diplomatic ties with Russia during Biden’s presidency. Trump has abandoned the isolation policy against Moscow to end the war in Ukraine and Israel. However, that did not bring any strong results, as the hostilities have not ceased, and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not convince the Tehran leaders to stop attacking Jerusalem. 

The hack may have been part of a campaign to disrupt the sense of normalcy Russians have mostly enjoyed since the start of the war.

© Tatyana Makeyeva/Agence France-Press — Getty Images

Europe can’t keep up with Russia in producing anti-missiles for Ukraine. Therefore, the time has come to shift from defense to counterattacks, Defense Express reports.

Europe’s defense lags behind

Russia’s military industry is currently capable of producing up to 1,020 ballistic missiles annually, including Iskander and Kinzhal types. European countries only have the capacity to intercept around 300 such missiles per year. These figures come from researcher Fabian Hoffmann, cited by the German outlet Hartpunkt. This imbalance means European industry is being outpaced by Russia, which continues to ramp up missile production. According to Ukraine’s military intelligence, Russia increased its Iskander production by 15–40% in the first half of 2025 alone. Europe is failing to match that surge with equivalent growth in its missile interception capabilities.

From defense to counterstrikes

As Defense Express explains, the traditional “anti-access/area denial” approach, which envisions saturating Ukraine with air defense systems, doesn’t work when the adversary has a numerical advantage. This method focuses on preventing missiles from entering Ukrainian airspace. In contrast, a more “offensive” strategy targets the factories, workshops, and logistics hubs where those missiles are made. It’s about eliminating the source of the threat, not just shielding against its consequences. And that, analysts argue, is exactly what Ukraine needs now. This shift in the support paradigm Europe must adopt to help Ukraine repel Russian strikes is timely and necessary.

“But ultimately it depends on what strike capabilities European partners are actually willing to supply, a particularly pressing issue amid speculation about Germany’s secret strike option, if not Taurus,” the experts write.

What Europe might provide

On 24 July, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Kyiv forces would receive secret weapons to “influence” Russia’s territory. Meanwhile, the deliveries of Taurus long-range missiles were ruled out. Wadephul emphasized that European partners were working intensively on the weapons delivery for Ukraine. The issue was not about finances but about the defense industry’s production capacity. In July, Germany announced it would deliver five Patriot systems to Ukraine, which are the only systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed the agreement with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth. Berlin is also sending over 200,000 shells for its Gepard anti-drone systems and financing the production of long-range Ukrainian drones for deep strikes inside Russia.

Today, the biggest news comes from the Caucasus. 

Here, as Georgia flexes its muscles by hosting large-scale NATO military exercises, it no longer hides its desire to be rid of Russian influence. The participation of Ukrainian troops, battle-hardened and equipped with extensive drone warfare experience, has only heightened Russian anxieties, suggesting a rising threat that could challenge Moscow from the south.

The NATO military exercise Agile Spirit 2025, recently commenced in Türkiye and Georgia, strengthens ties and coordination between NATO and non-NATO forces in the southern Caucasus. The NATO force includes soldiers from 12 NATO countries, as well as Georgia, Moldova, and notably Ukraine as non-NATO participants, with Armenia and Japan serving as observers. 

Agile Spirit comprises command and staff training, field exercises, live-fire demonstrations, and the exchange of knowledge and experience between participants. The exercise focuses on enhancing interoperability between NATO forces and Western-aligned non-NATO countries, to increase coordination and combat capabilities in the event of Russian military actions in the South Caucasus and possible NATO intervention. 

Georgia’s desire to host these exercises does not come out of nowhere; notably, Russia conducted similar tactics to keep Georgia within its sphere as it did with Ukraine. Russia sponsors the separatist breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with funding, soldiers, and weapons, to keep Georgia from moving to the West; akin to the Donetsk separatist movements in 2014 in Ukraine. 

Russia has since used its position here to bully and threaten Georgia into submission, with over 54 documented cases of Russian soldiers continuously moving border posts, thereby annexing and splitting whole Georgian towns and communities, to name one example. This has resulted in a large resentment against Russia among the Georgians, and many do not want to stand idly by as Russia continues its war in Ukraine and threatens to do the same to their country. 

As the goal of the military exercises is to enhance combat readiness specifically against a Russian threat, Ukraine’s participation in the NATO exercise is not insignificant, and many Russian analysts are concerned this could lead to a severe threat emerging from the south. 

Ukraine’s over a decade-long experience in fighting the Russian army is a treasury of information for allied armed forces. Sharing Ukraine’s expertise in conducting and countering modern drone warfare with allies will allow Georgia to better prepare for any military or hybrid threat coming from the Russian Federation.

Additionally, Ukraine could easily equip Georgia with its drone technology and production expertise, providing the nation with all the necessary means to counter the Russian army in a direct conflict. 

Essentially, Georgia’s proper preparation for a conflict with Russia means that the country is no longer an easy target for Russian expansion, should Russia attempt to maintain its influence through military means. Georgia could even choose to follow in the same footsteps as Syria and Azerbaijan, taking advantage of the Russian military being too preoccupied by the war in Ukraine to provide any kind of intervention. 

Similar to how the Syrian rebels took advantage of Russian neglect to overthrow Assad’s regime, and how Azerbaijan won several wars and offensives against Russia’s former ally Armenia, Georgia may seek to implement its newfound tactics and technologies to retake the lost territories in the north. 

Militarily, Georgia would already have the capabilities to defeat both separatist regions in a one-on-one engagement, fielding sufficient manpower, armor, artillery, and air support to overrun the two regions. However, Ukrainian technological support and tactical experience would ensure that Georgia could retake its land, as well as hold its own if Russia were to manage a limited intervention, something Russian forces notably were not able to do in either Syria or against Azerbaijan. 

Overall, Ukraine’s participation in this year’s Agile Spirit exercises promises to give Georgia the ability to independently stand up against Russian aggression. Learning from the extensive experience Ukraine has in fighting Russia, Georgia could possibly even retake separatist lands long used by Russia to maintain control over the Caucasus nation. With Georgia fearing it would befall the same fate as Ukraine, the strategically important nation has all the more reason to fight Russian aggression before Moscow can pull the trigger.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Ukraine receives Patriot air defense systems, and it’s just the beginning. The US and its allies have provided the systems under a new scheme in which European nations foot the bill for American weapons supplied to Kyiv, The Washington Post reports. 

Two more is on the way

Germany has already delivered three Patriots. One more is under discussion with the US, while Berlin has pledged to help provide a total of five.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has confirmed this during a meeting of Ukraine’s allies, without going into further detail.

Ukraine aims for ten systems

Kyiv is aiming to receive ten Patriots under the new arrangement. Some batteries could even come from outside NATO. For instance, Switzerland has agreed to redirect five systems it had previously ordered to Ukraine, and will receive its own later.

Under the new scheme, Ukraine will also receive advanced radars, electronic warfare systems, drone interceptors, and artillery platforms, according to two informed officials.

Long-range missiles? Germany says no, the US still weighing options

Meanwhile, the issue of long-range weapons remains unresolved. Germany has already ruled out supplying Taurus cruise missiles. The US has not provided a clear signal. NATO officials are not ready to confirm that such transfers will not happen in the future, despite US President Donald Trump’s refusal.

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) on July 7 published what it claimed was a Russian army order to increase its military presence at a base in Armenia, two days after HUR's warning of such a move was denied by Yerevan.

HUR first made the claim on July 5, saying Russia was increasing its forces at the Gyumri base to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and "destabilize the global security situation."

Armenia's Foreign Ministry denied the claim on the same day.

In a post on social media on July 7, HUR published a document which it said was a "order from the commander of the troops of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces on the 'replenishment' of the Russian military base in Armenia."

"The telegram lists a list of measures for the urgent “replenishment” of the units of the Russian unit by selecting personnel from among the servicemen of the 8th, 18th, 49th and 58th combined arms armies of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces," HUR said.

The news comes amid a major deterioration in Russian-Azerbaijani relations after a deadly June 27 operation in Russia's Yekaterinburg, where Russian security forces killed two Azerbaijani nationals and injured several others in a raid linked to a 2001 murder case.

Armenia has had a historically close relationship with Russia but the relations between Yerevan and Moscow have recently deteriorated.

Russia's leverage over both Baku and Yerevan has diminished dramatically since Azerbaijani troops captured Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-controlled region in Azerbaijan, in 2023.

Russian peacekeepers later withdraw from the region, and now Baku and Yerevan are negotiating a permanent peace deal.

Armenia, which has lambasted Moscow for failing to help it during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is drifting closer to the West.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has suspended the country's membership in a Russian-led military alliance and announced plans to join the European Union. Recently there has also been a crackdown on the pro-Russian opposition in Armenia.

Arrests, raids, beaten and bloodied suspects — how Russia-Azerbaijan relations have unravelled

Deaths in custody, media offices raided, and beaten and bloodied suspects paraded in court — relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, once considered close, have sharply deteriorated in recent days amid a series of high-profile incidents. The latest tensions erupted over the weekend when Russian law enforcement officers detained over 50 Azerbaijani

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Russian state-funded propaganda media outlet Sputnik will cease operations in Azerbaijan, Russia Today media group CEO Dmitry Kiselyov said on July 3, according to the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

"We regret to say that, as of today, the conditions for Sputnik Azerbaijan to continue its activities in this country are not in place," Kiselyov said.

The move comes amid a major deterioration in Russian-Azerbaijani relations.

Kiselyov's comments followed the detention of several Sputnik Azerbaijan employees by Azerbaijani police on June 30. Authorities said two of the detainees were operatives of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), prompting a formal protest from Moscow.

Kiselyov called the charges "far-fetched," saying the staff had worked to "develop cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia." He added that legal action would be taken to defend them.

Sputnik, a key pillar of the Kremlin's global propaganda network, has long been accused by Western governments and media watchdogs of spreading disinformation and pro-Russian narratives.

These developments follow a deadly June 27 operation in Russia's Yekaterinburg, where Russian security forces killed two Azerbaijani nationals and injured several others in a raid linked to a 2001 murder case.

On June 28, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry issued a rare public rebuke, calling the operation "ethnically motivated" and part of a "systematic pattern" of unlawful treatment of Azerbaijani nationals in Russia.

The diplomatic rupture deepened further after Azerbaijani authorities arrested eight Russian citizens the next day, presenting them in court handcuffed and visibly injured. They were accused of participating in organized crime, cyberattacks, and drug smuggling from Iran.

The closure of Sputnik's bureau marks a new low in relations between the two former Soviet states, which have seen escalating tensions despite longstanding ties.

Arrests, raids, beaten and bloodied suspects — how Russia-Azerbaijan relations have unravelled

Deaths in custody, media offices raided, and beaten and bloodied suspects paraded in court — relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, once considered close, have sharply deteriorated in recent days amid a series of high-profile incidents. The latest tensions erupted over the weekend when Russian law enforcement officers detained over 50 Azerbaijani

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg denied on July 1 that he agreed to "work on" halting Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia, contradicting Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko's claim.

Speaking at a state event on Belarus's Independence Day, Lukashenko said he relayed Russian President Vladimir Putin's position to Kellogg during their June 21 meeting in Minsk.

According to Lukashenko, the Russian president is willing to consider a ceasefire in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces stop conducting drone strikes on Russian territory.

"I conveyed this position to the Americans," Lukashenko said on July 1. "We will work on it, said (the U.S. special envoy), in this direction."

Kellogg pushed back on the claim, writing on X that the quote was "taken out of context" and misrepresented the substance of their talks.

"At no point did I make comments related to Ukraine's prosecution of the war outside of a total ceasefire," he said. "In my conversation with Lukashenko, we discussed a full and unconditional ceasefire."

The June meeting between Kellogg and Lukashenko marked the highest-level U.S. visit to Belarus since former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's 2020 trip. Belarusian state media widely portrayed Kellogg's visit as a sign of thawing relations.

Shortly after the talks, Belarus released opposition leader and political prisoner Siarhei Tsikhanouski, who had been jailed since the 2020 presidential election.

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994 and remains a key ally of the Kremlin. His regime has allowed Russian troops and equipment to use Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Military aid delays will ‘encourage Russia to continue war,’ Ukraine tells US envoy

Ukraine warned that “any delay or hesitation in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities will only encourage Russia to continue war and terror, rather than pursue peace.”

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Armenian authorities should "seriously" consider banning the broadcast of Russian television channels in Armenia, Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan said on July 1, citing concerns over interference and deteriorating ties.

"We must very seriously discuss the suspension of the Russian television channel broadcast in the territory of Armenia," Simonyan told reporters, according to Armenpress. He criticized recent content aired by Russian state broadcasters, which the Armenian government has denounced as harmful to bilateral ties.

The remarks come as Armenia continues to pivot away from Moscow's sphere of influence and seeks to bolster ties with the West.

Simonyan suggested that individuals connected to Armenian-Russian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan may be financing efforts to meddle in Armenia's internal matters.

"If there are channels that allow themselves to interfere in Armenia’s domestic affairs, perhaps we ought to respond likewise, by at least banning their entry into the homes of our society," he said.

Tensions between Armenia and Russia have mounted since Moscow's failure to intervene during Azerbaijan's military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, which resulted in the mass displacement of ethnic Armenians.

In April, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed a law initiating the country's formal accession process to the European Union.

Though symbolic, the legislation marks a significant political shift, embedding European integration into Armenian law. The bill, passed by parliament in March, was backed by 64 lawmakers and opposed by seven.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said that EU membership would require a referendum, while the Kremlin warned that joining both the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is "simply impossible." The EAEU, established in 2015, includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan.

Why Norway is investing billions in Ukraine’s victory

The Kyiv Independent’s Oleksiy Sorokin sat down with Eivind Vad Petersson, state secretary to the Norwegian foreign minister and co-chair of the joint Norwegian-Ukrainian Working Group on Nuclear Safety and Security.

The Kyiv IndependentOleksiy Sorokin

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced on July 1 that the Russian-made Oreshnik missile system will be deployed in Belarus by the end of 2025. Speaking at a ceremony marking Independence Day, Lukashenko said the decision was made in coordination with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Volgograd.

"The first Oreshnik positions will be in Belarus. You’ve seen how Oreshnik works: the same missiles, the same strikes — but without nuclear warheads, without radioactive contamination of the land and air. This weapon will be stationed in Belarus by the end of the year," Lukashenko said.

Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994 and claimed victory in a seventh consecutive presidential election in January, argued that hosting such weaponry would not make Belarus a target, adding that such concerns are being "imposed from outside." He claimed that countries possessing nuclear weapons have historically avoided military aggression and said the presence of such systems in Belarus is intended solely as a deterrent.

He also said he had delivered a warning to U.S. officials, stating that while nuclear weapons in Belarus are securely stored in accordance with international standards, any unauthorized incursion into Belarusian territory would trigger a "swift and forceful response."

The Belarusian leader emphasized that any use of the Oreshnik system would not involve nuclear warheads and that maintaining modern military capabilities is critical for national defense.

Russia first launched the experimental Oreshnik missile during a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Nov. 21. Putin claimed the attack was in retaliation for Ukraine's use of U.S. and British long-range missiles against Russian territory.

Although little is publicly known about the missile, defense experts believe Oreshnik is not a wholly new development but likely an upgraded version of Russia’s RS-26 missile, also known as the Rubezh, which was first produced in 2011.

Lukashenko reportedly thanked Moscow for supporting the deployment of advanced weapons systems to Belarus and said the introduction of Oreshnik would serve as a tool for domestic stability. "I’m confident that even those of our supporters who don’t yet understand this will come to realize it — without a war. That’s why Oreshnik will be on Belarusian soil. To prevent uprisings," he said.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km from border, SBU source says

Key developments on July 1: * ‘With surgical precision’ — Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km away, SBU source says * Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills brigade commander, injures 30 people, Zelensky says * Ukrainian forces hit Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, General Staff says * Zelensky signs ratification of

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a Belarusian oppositionist recently released from prison, thanked the U.S. on June 22 for brokering his release and appealed to President Donald Trump to help free other political prisoners in Belarus.

"President Trump now has the power and opportunity to free all political prisoners in Belarus with a single word. And I ask him to do so, to say that word," Tsikhanouski said in Vilnius during his first press conference after the release.

Tsikhanouski, a popular blogger who planned to challenge Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, was arrested shortly before the vote and later sentenced to 18 years in prison on politically motivated charges.

The opposition leader and at least 13 other detainees were released from Belarusian prisons on June 21 after Lukashenko met U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, in Minsk.

Speaking at the press conference alongside his wife and opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Tsikhanouski affirmed that both of them "will continue to support Ukraine and call all of the perpetrators accountable."

Tsikhanouski confirmed that he used to do business both in Ukraine and in Russia but refuted allegations of pro-Russian sympathies, affirming his support for Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"I believe Crimea is Ukrainian. Zelensky has the hardest fate and a heavy load that no other president has. Zelensky is my hero," Tsikhanouski said.

He also said that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remains the leader of the Belarusian opposition, and he will not challenge that.

Tsikhanouskaya stepped in as the opposition candidate in 2020 after her husband's arrest, but was forced into exile after Lukashenko declared victory in what was broadly seen as massive election fraud.

"Do you think that anybody who serves in prison automatically becomes a leader? We have 1,200 such leaders," Tsikhanouski added, referring to the number of political prisoners who remain in prison under Lukashenko's regime.

"Belarus can't be free until the Putin regime collapses. If it wasn't for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, we would not be sitting here; it would have been over (after the Belarus' popular protests against Lukashenko) in 2020-2021," Tsikhanouski said.

Lukashenko, in power since 1994, is a close ally of Putin and has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory for military operations against Ukraine.

The Belarusian dictator has maintained a tight grip over his country by electoral fraud, surveillance, and brutal crackdown on free press, civil society, and political opposition, prompting Western countries to impose sanctions on Belarus.

Russia ‘afraid to admit’ scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers’ bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says

Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Editor's note: This item has been expanded with additional details.

Belarusian opposition leader and political prisoner Siarhei Tsikhanouski was released on June 21, shortly after dictator Alexander Lukashenko met in Minsk with U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

Tsikhanouski , a popular blogger who planned to challenge Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, was arrested shortly before the vote and later sentenced to 18 years in prison on politically motivated charges. Amnesty International recognized Tsikhanouski as a prisoner of conscience.

His wife, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, stepped in and became the main opposition candidate against Lukashenko.

At least 13 political detainees, including prominent blogger Ihar Losik, were also released on June 21, Belarusian independent outlet Nasha Niva reported.

The other released prisoners include three Polish citizens, two Latvian citizens, one Estonian citizen, a Swedish citizen, a U.S. citizen, and two Japanese citizens, according to Lukashenko's press secretary.

In a post on social media, Tsikhanouskaya welcomed the news but highlighted that "1,150 political prisoners remain behind bars."

My husband Siarhei is free! It’s hard to describe the joy in my heart.

Thank you, 🇺🇸 @POTUS, @SPE_Kellogg, @JohnPCoale, DAS Christopher W. Smith, @StateDept & our 🇪🇺 allies, for all your efforts.

We’re not done. 1150 political prisoners remain behind bars. All must be released. pic.twitter.com/MhngqBHFq3

— Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya) June 21, 2025

Kellogg's deputy, John Coale, said the released political prisoners had been transferred to Vilnius and expressed gratitude to the Lithuanian government for facilitating their relocation.

"President Trump's strong leadership led to the release of 14 prisoners from Belarus today. Thanks to the Lithuanian government for its cooperation and assistance — they remain a true friend and ally," Coale wrote on X.

According to official results of the 2020 election, Lukashenko won with 80% of the vote, while Tsikhanouskaya received just 10%. Evidence indicates that the election was heavily rigged, and Tsikhanouskaya could have realistically won the vote.

As a result, hundreds of thousands took to the streets in Belarus in 2020 to demand a fair election. Thousands were arrested, and many were beaten and tortured. At least seven demonstrators were killed during the protests.

Minsk has faced repeated Western sanctions since the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests.

Lukashenko, in power since 1994, is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory for military operations against Ukraine.

"You have caused quite a stir in the world with your arrival," Lukashenko told Kellogg during their meeting at the Palace of Independence, according to state-run outlet Belta.

"But I wonder why. Can't we have a normal dialogue and talk about our affairs – about relations between Belarus and the United States of America?"

Kellogg is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Belarus in recent years, following former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's 2020 trip under Trump's first term.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenko's regime has played a key logistical role in supporting Moscow's campaign, offering its territory for troop deployments and weapons stockpiles.

Russia ‘afraid to admit’ scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers’ bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says

Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Latvia's parliament adopted a bill on June 19 that prohibits citizens of Russia and Belarus from purchasing real estate in the country, Latvian media reported.

The bill — which carves out exceptions for EU and Latvian permanent residence holders, Belarusian refugees, and repatriates — establishes the new restrictions under the pretenses of protecting the country's national security.

In addition to citizens, the bill prohibits entities that are at least 25% owned by Russian or Belarusian nationals from purchasing property.

"This is a step to limit the influence and presence in Latvia of persons and companies that are adverse to the country,” said Agnese Krasta, an Estonian member of parliament and one of the authors of the initiative.

Latvia, which borders both Russia and Estonia, is widely viewed as one of the most likely targets for a future Russian attack on NATO or the European Union. As the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, Latvia has taken action to increase civil preparedness measures and has drafted plans to relocate a quarter of its population in the case of war.

EU intelligence and security agencies have warned of mounting Russian sabotage operations, including several arson attacks believed to have been coordinated by Moscow.

Latvia joins Finland in imposing a ban on Russians from buying, as Baltic and Nordic countries continue to impose restrictions on Russia over its aggression in the region.

In September 2022, Latvia imposed entry restrictions on Russian citizens as part of a joint agreement with Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Latvia has been one of Ukraine's most vocal backers.

The Baltic state ranks among Europe's top defense spenders, allocating over 3% of GDP to defense in 2025, according to NATO estimates.

Diplomacy in crisis: G7 letdowns reveal limits to Western solidarity on Ukraine

KANANASKIS, Canada — The Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit ended on June 17 with no joint statement in support of Ukraine, no commitments to provide desperately needed U.S. weapons, and no meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. The Ukrainian delegation headed into the summit,

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg will meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the coming days, Reuters reported on June 17, citing four sources familiar with the matter.

Kellogg will meet Lukashenko in a visit to Belarus as peace talks to bring an end to Russia's war against Ukraine remain inconclusive, Reuters reported.

In February, U.S. Deputy Assistant State Secretary Christopher W. Smith visited Belarus alongside two other U.S. officials to conduct a prisoner swap in a similar unannounced visit.

Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has been accused of staging fraudulent elections in Belarus. The leader declared a seventh consecutive presidential election victory in January.

Kellogg has given the impression that the meeting could help reinitiate largely unsuccessful peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, two sources told Reuters.

Lukashenko is seen as a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russia faces isolation in response to its full-scale war against Ukraine.

The White House has discussed ways to weaken Russia's influence on Minsk and bring Belarus closer to the United States, one of the sources said.

On Feb. 12, Smith drove to Belarus from Lithuania following a phone call with Lukashenko. The small U.S. delegation visited a border town where three political prisoners were transferred, including one U.S. citizen and two Belarusian citizens, the New York Times reported.

Lukashenko assured he was ready to decrease repression in Belarus, Smith said, adding that the U.S. wants Belarus to be less reliant on Russia.

Belarus has faced Western sanctions following a presidential election in 2020 that international observers condemned as fraudulent. The sham election garnered mass protests that rejected the results.

Minsk refused to invite a mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the country's Jan. 26 presidential election.

Belarus further isolated itself from the West as it supports Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine.

‘He said he wasn’t going anywhere’ — Survivors search for missing following Russia’s deadliest attack on Kyiv this year

Sitting a few meters from the rubble of what used to be a nondescript nine-story residential building in Kyiv, Lilia rises to her feet every time another pile of debris is cleared from the site targeted by Russia during a mass overnight attack on June 17. “We are waiting (as

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

An uninsured Russian Aframax-class tanker has been illegally conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in international waters near Greece and Cyprus since July 2024, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on June 16.

According to the agency, the vessel, operating without Western insurance, is part of Russia's expanding shadow fleet used to bypass G7 and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports.

HUR said such transfers "pose an environmental threat, allow the aggressor to conceal the origin of oil, evade international control, and ensure its supply to third countries in circumvention of sanctions."

Ukraine has identified the tanker as IMO 9247443 and listed it on the War&Sanctions platform, along with 159 other tankers allegedly belonging to Russia's shadow fleet and 55 captains involved in sanction-busting operations.

Despite price caps and Western restrictions, Russia continues to profit from oil and gas exports, which remain a vital revenue source. According to HUR estimates, roughly one-third of those profits are expected to fund Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025.

In May, the EU approved its 17th sanctions package, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet vessels. The U.S. Treasury had earlier sanctioned over 180 tankers, which together accounted for nearly half of Russia's offshore oil shipments.

While the Biden administration ramped up pressure on Russia's oil trade early in 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump has since declined to impose new sanctions, despite Moscow's continued refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Europe must begin preparing for a gradual reduction in U.S. military support for both the continent and Ukraine, Tagesschau reported on June 13.

"Yes, that's right. That would be so, and we have to deal with that," Pistorius told journalists in response to a question about the U.S. potentially scaling down its support. He noted that the discussions focus on a reduction in U.S. backing rather than a full halt.

The comments come after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Washington would reduce the assistance allocated to Ukraine in the next year's federal budget.

"We now have to look at how much support drops and whether Europeans can compensate for it," Pistorius added.

While the U.S. has been Ukraine's leading military backer under former President Joe Biden, the Trump administration has yet to approve any aid packages and has become increasingly disengaged from peace talks.

Pistorius's comments come amid increasing uncertainty in transatlantic relations. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker confirmed on May 16 that the United States plans to begin discussions with European allies later this year about reducing its military presence on the continent.

Speaking at a security conference in Estonia, Whitaker said the talks would begin after the NATO summit in The Hague in June.

"Nothing has been determined," Whitaker said, according to Reuters. "But as soon as we do, we are going to have these conversations in the structure of NATO."

Whitaker emphasized that any drawdown would be closely coordinated to avoid creating security gaps. Still, he reiterated U.S. President Donald Trump's position that long-standing U.S. efforts to reduce its European military footprint must now be implemented.

"This is going to be orderly, but we are not going to have any more patience for foot-dragging in this situation," he said.

In February, Hegseth reportedly told NATO allies that "stark strategic realities" prevent the United States from being primarily focused on Europe's security. Leaks reported by the Atlantic in March revealed that both Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance privately criticized European defense spending, with Hegseth allegedly expressing his "loathing of European free-loading."

Trump called on NATO member states to increase defense spending up to 5% of GDP. Ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that member states will have agreed to a new goal of increasing defense spending.

"We are headed for a summit in six weeks in which virtually every member of NATO will be at or above 2%, but more importantly, many of them will be over 4%, and all will have agreed on a goal of reaching 5% over the next decade," Rubio told Fox News on May 15.

Such a move would mark a historic shift, with NATO partners collectively accounting for more than half of the alliance's military capacity, according to Rubio.

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, NATO members have significantly increased their defense spending, with countries like Poland and the Baltic nations aiming to reach the 5% target in the coming years.

Ukraine bracing for ‘painful’ reduction in US military aid after Hegseth announces cuts

Editor’s note: For security reasons, the real names of the soldiers mentioned in this story have not been used. A reduction in U.S. military aid to Ukraine would be “painful” and could have potentially “dire consequences” for the global order, Ukrainian lawmakers and soldiers have told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include Germany's announcement to supply Ukraine with $2.2 billion in additional military aid.

Germany will deliver new IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine under a three-year supply plan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a joint press conference with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who added Berlin has no plans to provide Taurus long-range missiles.

The announcement comes amid escalating Russian aerial assaults, including a June 10 missile and drone strike on Kyiv, one of the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion.

"We are grateful for the supply of IRIS-T air defense systems," Zelensky said on June 12. "We understand that deliveries are currently being planned... for the next three years. This is very important assistance."

The IRIS-T is a German-made medium-range surface-to-air missile system capable of intercepting drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles.

Pistorius confirmed the delivery timeline but firmly ruled out the possibility of sending Taurus missiles — weapons Kyiv has repeatedly requested to strike deep into Russian territory.

"You asked me whether we are considering this, and my answer is no," Pistorius said.

Before taking office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signaled openness to lifting former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ban on the missiles. That stance has not yet resulted in a policy shift.

Ukraine has already received long-range missiles — including ATACMS from the U.S. and Storm Shadow and SCALP from the U.K. and France. Initially restricted to use within Ukrainian territory, Western allies only began easing those limitations in late 2024.

Germany is Ukraine's largest military donor in Europe. Pistorius said that Berlin will provide 9 billion euros ($10.4 billion) in aid this year, with investments in defense production being considered. The total includes an additional commitment in military aid worth 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion).

"Today, we discussed that this aid will continue," he said. "We agreed on additional investments in production... both in Ukraine and in Germany."

Zelensky visited Berlin on May 28 for talks with Merz, part of an ongoing effort to bolster Ukraine's defense industry amid uncertainty over U.S. support under President Donald Trump.

Why can’t the West match Russia’s ammunition production?

The West is failing to catch up to Russia’s production of the most basic unit of war for the past half-millennium — gunpowder. The modern propellants and explosives that power war have largely been offshored. While Western manufacturers are churning out shell casings, they are short on the materials to fill

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

The Council of the EU on June 12 approved fresh tariffs on fertilizers and remaining agricultural goods from Russia and Belarus, aiming to reduce Russian export revenues.

The measures target those goods that have not yet been subject to additional customs duties and will enter into force on July 1. The tariffs on fertilizers will increase gradually over the next three years.

The step comes as the EU readies additional sanctions against Russia as it continues to wage its all-out war against Ukraine.

"Polish Presidency motto is 'Security, Europe!' and these measures increase our economic security by reducing dependencies from Russia," said Michal Baranowski, the trade undersecretary at the Polish Economy Ministry.

"We are further reducing Russia’s export revenues and therefore its ability to finance its brutal war. This is united Europe at its best," he said in a statement.

The new tariffs will apply to goods that made up around 15% of all agricultural imports from Russia in 2023. Fertilizer tariffs will focus on certain nitrogen-based products, the Council said in a statement.

Russian fertilizers accounted for more than a quarter of all of the EU's imports in this sector in 2023, worth almost $1.5 billion.

Apart from stifling Russia's trade revenue, the step also aims to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian and Belarusian goods, protect European farmers, and diversify the supply.

The EU adopted higher tariffs on cereals, oilseeds, and some other products from Russia and Belarus in May 2024. Earlier this year, the European Commission proposed imposing similar measures on all remaining agricultural products from the two countries.

Putin’s suspected daughter found working in anti-war galleries in Paris

Nastya Rodionova, a Russian writer and artist who has been based in Paris since 2022, had only met gallery manager Luiza Rozova in passing at events before she learned who the 22-year-old’s parents were. Described by a number of people as a “very nice and well-mannered girl,” Rozova is

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Il n’a jamais été simple de parler du Bélarus en France sans tomber dans le cliché. La formulation « dernière dictature d’Europe » a encore été reprise par les médias aujourd’hui pour évoquer le scrutin présidentiel qui s’est tenu dimanche, et j’en veux un peu aux journalistes pour cette paresse intellectuelle.
« Dernière dictature d’Europe » était une formule confortable pour se rassurer sur le processus de démocratisation qui aurait été en voie de généralisation sur le continent européen; certes, à des vitesses variables, mais quand-même quasiment certain. Le Bélarus faisait alors office d’épouvantail et de dernier bastion d’un monde en cours de disparition. Cela empêchait de voir les dynamiques réelles sur place (et de s’interroger par exemple sur la manière dont la stabilité, les politiques sociales et le progrès économique pouvaient atrophier la sensibilité politique). Cela faisait aussi du bien à l’égo européen.
Nous n’en sommes plus là aujourd’hui, bien évidemment, et dans un contexte de montée d’attractivité des autoritarismes, le Belarus est plutôt un cas d’école qui devrait attirer notre attention. Dire que l’élection présidentielle qui vient de s’écouler était un simulacre, c’est à la fois vrai et stérile, parce que c’est une manière de dire « point, à la ligne, on passe à autre chose » qui neutralise toute volonté de compréhension.
Malheureusement, la guerre conduite par la Russie contre l’Ukraine m’a empêché d’être suffisamment vigilante sur le Bélarus pour livrer une analyse approfondie. Ce que je dis est à prendre avec des pincettes; ce sont des pistes à creuser.
Un régime politique autoritaire fonctionne grâce à un certain dosage de coercition et d’adhésion; il doit non seulement mettre en place une répression suffisamment forte pour bloquer les oppositions, mais aussi distribuer suffisamment de bénéfices pour susciter l’adhésion. Plus le ratio est en faveur des bénéfices, plus le pouvoir est stable; plus il penche du côté répressif, plus le régime est fragile. Pendant longtemps, le régime politique du Belarus s’est attaché à distribuer beaucoup de bénéfices à la population, notamment à travers des politiques sociales, des politiques de développement et une promesse de stabilité et de prévisibilité. Les Bélarusses vivaient – économiquement – plutôt mieux que beaucoup de leurs voisins, et en avaient conscience. Le prix politique à payer apparaissait donc comme acceptable.
Evidemment, le soutien de la Russie était et reste l’exosquelette du régime bélarusse, aussi bien d’un point de vue politique qu’économique.
Les protestations massives de 2020 étaient intervenues dans le contexte d’une certaine fragilisation du modèle, et notamment d’une perception du régime comme moins protecteur, mais aussi en décalage avec les demandes de la société. Les répressions violentes qui ont suivi et qui se sont maintenues tout au long des années suivantes ont fait basculer le ratio répression/bénéfices en faveur de la répression. Cette période violente va compter dans l’histoire politique bélarusse: on ne le perçoit pas encore, mais elle a donné naissance à une expérience différente, moins marginale de l’opposition politique, de la répression et de la prison. Elle a aussi permis de structurer une opposition à l’étranger et de lui donner des canaux de prise de parole. Derrière les apparences de « il ne se passe rien », le Belarus est en réalité bien plus prêt qu’en 2020 à entamer une transition politique, avec une nouvelle génération de citoyens jetés avec violence dans la politique.
Cependant, et paradoxalement, c’est la guerre en Ukraine qui a redonné de la stabilité au régime bélarusse. En effet, dans un contexte où la Russie essaie de toutes ses forces de faire du Bélarus un cobelligérant, il y a des choses que Loukachenko a réussi à protéger. Certes, des unités armées russes et des complexes d’armement sont désormais basés au Belarus, qui sert de base aux attaques contre l’Ukraine. Cependant, aucune unité armée bélarusse ne combat aux côtés de la Russie contre l’Ukraine. Pensez au paradoxe: des soldats nord-coréens, mais pas de soldats bélarusses, alors que le pays se déclare être le plus proche allié de la Russie. Le territoire du Bélarus reste un territoire en paix. Cela, les citoyens savent qu’ils le doivent en partie à Loukachenko… mais aussi en partie aux Ukrainiens qui ne désespèrent pas de retourner les Bélarusses contre Moscou, et qui ne les perçoivent pas de la même manière que les Russes.
La politique menée par Loukachenko vis-à-vis de la Russie a été caractérisée par un de mes anciens collègues bélarusses par la formule suivante: « on dit oui à tout, puis on bureaucratise au maximum le processus pour finalement ne rien faire ». C’est aussi une stratégie que les Bélarusses appliquent au quotidien vis-à-vis de leur Etat. Il y a une certaine résilience stratégique de la société bélarusse qu’on ferait bien de souligner. Ne nous laissons pas tromper par cette apparence de calme plat: le Bélarus n’est pas la Russie et suivra une dynamique qui lui sera propre.