Europe can’t keep up with Russia in producing anti-missiles for Ukraine. Therefore, the time has come to shift from defense to counterattacks, Defense Express reports.

Europe’s defense lags behind

Russia’s military industry is currently capable of producing up to 1,020 ballistic missiles annually, including Iskander and Kinzhal types. European countries only have the capacity to intercept around 300 such missiles per year. These figures come from researcher Fabian Hoffmann, cited by the German outlet Hartpunkt. This imbalance means European industry is being outpaced by Russia, which continues to ramp up missile production. According to Ukraine’s military intelligence, Russia increased its Iskander production by 15–40% in the first half of 2025 alone. Europe is failing to match that surge with equivalent growth in its missile interception capabilities.

From defense to counterstrikes

As Defense Express explains, the traditional “anti-access/area denial” approach, which envisions saturating Ukraine with air defense systems, doesn’t work when the adversary has a numerical advantage. This method focuses on preventing missiles from entering Ukrainian airspace. In contrast, a more “offensive” strategy targets the factories, workshops, and logistics hubs where those missiles are made. It’s about eliminating the source of the threat, not just shielding against its consequences. And that, analysts argue, is exactly what Ukraine needs now. This shift in the support paradigm Europe must adopt to help Ukraine repel Russian strikes is timely and necessary.

“But ultimately it depends on what strike capabilities European partners are actually willing to supply, a particularly pressing issue amid speculation about Germany’s secret strike option, if not Taurus,” the experts write.

What Europe might provide

On 24 July, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Kyiv forces would receive secret weapons to “influence” Russia’s territory. Meanwhile, the deliveries of Taurus long-range missiles were ruled out. Wadephul emphasized that European partners were working intensively on the weapons delivery for Ukraine. The issue was not about finances but about the defense industry’s production capacity. In July, Germany announced it would deliver five Patriot systems to Ukraine, which are the only systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed the agreement with his US counterpart Pete Hegseth. Berlin is also sending over 200,000 shells for its Gepard anti-drone systems and financing the production of long-range Ukrainian drones for deep strikes inside Russia.

Russia’s drone strike tactics now pierce Ukrainian defenses at triple the previous rate, FT reports. With new swarming methods and high-altitude maneuvers, Russia’s Shahed drones are overwhelming Ukraine’s air defenses across key cities.

Drone swarms adapt to bypass Ukraine’s defenses

According to official Ukrainian air force data cited by FT on 21 July, the proportion of Shahed drones hitting targets rose from 5% to 15% between January–March and April–June. This sharp rise reflects a shift in Russia’s drone strike tactics—not a decline in Ukraine’s capabilities.

Moscow has retooled its drone operations, modifying Iranian-designed Shaheds—now manufactured in Russia under the Geran designation—to fly faster and at higher altitudes. These adaptations make them harder to intercept by truck-mounted machine guns and standard mobile fire units typically used by Ukrainian forces.

Yasir Atalan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told FT the improvement “is not [because] the Ukraine air defence is getting worse,” but due to Russia’s new swarming methods and drones flying “in higher altitude, [which] makes them more effective.”

Record-breaking drone and missile assaults

Ukraine’s Air Force reported yesterday that Russia launched 426 Shahed-type attack drones in a single wave. On 9 July, Russian forces fired a record 728 units—combining drones, decoys, and cruise and ballistic missiles—in a coordinated saturation strike.

FT notes that by overwhelming the defense layers with sheer volume, Russia raises the strike success rate. According to Atalan, the increased scale of launches “saturates the defense systems which increases the hit rate.”

Domestic production fuels Russia’s drone blitz

Russia’s ability to domestically produce Shaheds in large numbers has given it a logistical edge. The Geran-3 variant—equipped with a turbo engine and capable of diving at speeds up to 800km/h—has reportedly been used against Kyiv in recent weeks, FT reports.

Ukraine’s defenses include jamming drone GPS guidance systems using electronic warfare, as well as employing machine guns and advanced anti-aircraft systems like Germany’s Oerlikon Skynex. Despite this, the average hit rate for drones remains around 15%, FT says.

Ukraine ramps up interceptor drone efforts

In response, Ukraine has increased efforts to counter the Shahed threat with domestically developed interceptor drones. On 10 July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces were already “shooting down dozens of Shaheds” in each wave using these homegrown interceptors.

Earlier this month, Zelenskyy announced a partnership with Eric Schmidt, CEO of the US-based Swift Beat, to co-produce “hundreds of thousands” of drones for Ukraine’s defense, including those designed to intercept enemy drones.

Last week, Zelenskyy emphasized the success of these new systems, noting they “are achieving good results” and that “hundreds of Russian-Iranian Shaheds” had been destroyed in a single week.