Lithuania's government approved an expanded plan on 12 August to fortify its borders with Russia and Belarus against a possible attack, LRT reports. Lithuania, a Baltic state and NATO member, sits wedged between Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus. The decision opens a new counter-mobility belt reaching inland from the border, a 20-meter strip that widens to 150 meters where the army marks out areas for operations.

The buildout answers a fear that has gripped the Baltics since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022: that a Russia left unchecked in Ukraine could turn on them next. Western intelligence agencies have warned for years that Moscow could eventually threaten NATO itself, and former CIA director David Petraeus has singled out Lithuania as the likeliest first target, pinned between Kaliningrad and Belarus and sitting beside the Suwałki Gap, the thin land corridor that is NATO's only overland route to the Baltic states.

The decision raises the number of engineering parks, storage depots for obstacles like concrete blocks and roadblocks, from 27 to 50, and gives that work until the end of 2028, more than three years past the original April 2025 target. The state rail company LTG Infra is to store the equipment. The changes could cost an extra €50 million ($58 million) from the State Defense Fund between 2026 and 2030.

Of the Baltic states and Poland fortifying their eastern borders, Lithuania is the most at risk yet the least fortified, according to a satellite review by open-source analyst Clément Molin, even as Belarus keeps testing that border with engineered migrant crossings. The plan is Lithuania's share of the Baltic Defense Line, the joint barrier it launched in 2024 with Latvia and Estonia, alongside Poland's parallel East Shield.

The design comes straight from Ukraine. Lithuania began building counter-mobility parks in 2023, drawing on Russia's war against Ukraine, and much of what it is now putting into the ground, the swamps, ditches, and obstacle fields, was tested first on Ukrainian battlefields, where mud, water, and simple barriers have repeatedly stalled armored advances.

The restored swamps should make some ground impassable to heavy military vehicles within a few years, the Defense Ministry says, with that work due by the end of 2030. Plans for defensive ditches and streams in the Marijampolė municipality were dropped, and the ministry found better sites in the Vilkaviškis and Šakiai districts. Deadlines for obstacles on roads and bridge approaches, and for fitting bridges with holders for explosives, were also moved to the end of 2028.

"Military counter-mobility is an important part of Lithuania's defence preparedness," Deputy Defense Minister Tomas Mikelkevičius said. "We seek to make the best possible use of Lithuania's terrain and engineering measures to impede an adversary's movement if necessary and create more favorable conditions for our armed forces to operate."

Lithuania approved its first counter-mobility plan in July 2024. The plan's original 2024 estimate put the full system at around €600 million ($690 million) over the decade.

Russia's pressure on the Baltic borders

The buildout lands amid steady friction along NATO's eastern edge. Latvia has absorbed the bulk of the migrant crossings funneled from Belarus, and this week found its first used smuggling tunnel under the border. Estonia has switched on the first sensors of a planned drone wall along its Russian frontier and is reallocating €500 million ($575 million) toward air defense and long-range strike. Russia, for its part, has shut seven rail crossings with Latvia, Estonia, and Finland without explanation.

The fortification drive is a bet on time. Estonia's military chief has set a two-year clock, warning Russia could be combat-ready again by 2027, and ISW analysts assessed in May that Moscow was manufacturing pretexts for aggression against the Baltics. Poland's parallel East Shield, meanwhile, has gone up far slower than promised, leaving the region's defenses still thin where the threat is judged greatest.

Lithuania's military intelligence warned that Russia is considering using captured Ukrainian drones for false flag attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, LRT reported. Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed the assessment and called the scenario "probably the most realistic" form of Russian provocation against the region. Lithuania has reinforced security at key infrastructure sites and deployed military forces since June.

Russia's false flag playbook with captured drone parts

Moscow could reassemble crashed and intercepted Ukrainian drone wreckage into functioning devices and launch them at targets in the Baltic states, Kaunas told reporters on 6 August. The goal: create confusion about who launched the strike and avoid accountability for hitting NATO territory.

"We have data that Russia is considering conducting unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region," Kaunas said. "It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this purpose."

The Baltic region. Map: Euromaidan Press

The mechanism exploits a byproduct of Ukraine's drone war against Russia. As Ukrainian long-range drones hit oil infrastructure and military targets deep inside Russia, some are intercepted or crash. Russia collects the wreckage. 

"Russia possesses some of those parts and drone fragments and is capable of assembling them into a functioning device," Kaunas said. "The theoretical possibility that such drones could be used in a false flag operation exists."

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Kaunas emphasized no decision to launch such an operation had been detected. 

"We are talking about a false flag operation in which a fake Ukrainian drone could be used. At this point, that is probably the most realistic scenario."

The false flag warning follows a pattern of Ukrainian drones entering Baltic airspace after being diverted by Russian electronic warfare. NATO fighter jets shot down such drones over Latvia and Estonia this spring, and Lithuania shut Vilnius airport after detecting a drone crossing from Belarus.

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Multiple NATO allies see the same intelligence

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda had earlier raised concerns about possible conventional and sabotage strikes targeting the country's transport and energy networks. Kaunas echoed that message and pointed to a broader pattern across the alliance's eastern flank.

"Other NATO countries have repeatedly made it very clear that they see it, hear it, know about it, and have warned Russia not to do it," Kaunas said. He did not identify specific targets or a timeline for any potential attack.

Russia claimed the Baltic states open air corridors for Ukrainian drone strikes—without producing evidence. Russia also threatened NATO member Latvia with retaliation over the accusations. Nausėda publicly rejected Moscow's claims.

NATO upgraded its Baltic Air Policing rules of engagement in July, giving fighter jets authority to shoot down objects that pose a threat. Russia's military aircraft probed NATO's eastern flank so aggressively in July that scrambles jumped more than 250%.

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NATO scrambled fighter jets to intercept Russian planes far more often over its eastern flank this July than a year earlier, the alliance's Allied Joint Force Command in Brunssum announced on 5 August. Each scramble is a launch to intercept an unidentified aircraft. The command linked the surge to Russian military planes repeatedly probing the edges of allied airspace.

Russian pressure on NATO's eastern edge has built for years, but this summer the alliance changed how it answers: it gave pilots authority that includes destroying "objects that pose a threat," ending a peacetime escort format that had held since 2004. More probing now meets a harder line.

Compared with July 2025, these scrambles rose by more than 250%, the command said.

"Russian military aircraft repeatedly flew close to NATO airspace without a flight plan and transponder signal, leaving our fighters to launch, intercept, and identify them," it added.

Polish jets keep meeting Russian spy planes over the Baltic

The report landed amid a run of intercepts near the Baltic Sea. Poland's Defense Ministry, under Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, reported its fighters intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane on 4 August, 56 kilometers northwest of Koszalin in West Pomeranian Voivodeship.

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A day earlier, the minister reported, Polish crews had caught another Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic near Łeba, its transponder off. Allied pilots have run similar missions for months: French and Swedish jets met six Russian aircraft over the Baltic in a single day in June, and crews scrambled through last fall to track flights between mainland Russia and the Kaliningrad exclave.

What are the surge forces on the alliance

Every unannounced flight burns allied flight hours and holds interceptors on standby. NATO members have already fired on Russian drones crossing their skies this summer, and the more often crewed planes go dark near the border, the higher the odds a close encounter escalates. The odds of a close encounter that escalates.

Satellite images reveal that Russia has expanded and modernized at least five nuclear-related facilities near European borders in recent years, Swedish broadcaster SVT reported on June 16, citing new imagery obtained from Planet Labs.

One of the most notable developments is in Kaliningrad, where the suspected nuclear weapons storage site has undergone significant reconstruction.

Images taken in May 2025 show the addition of triple-layered fencing, new buildings, and advanced communications equipment. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski previously said that up to 100 tactical nuclear warheads might be stored at the site.

Kaliningrad, a militarized Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania, is a key concern for NATO because of its advanced missile systems and expanding nuclear infrastructure.

The Osipovichi base in Belarus, a former Soviet nuclear storage facility, is also being renovated. Satellite imagery shows new air defense installations and a modernized loading platform for rail-based logistics.

In Novaya Zemlya, a remote Arctic archipelago long linked to Soviet-era nuclear testing, several new buildings have appeared, reinforcing its role as a potential site for future test activities.

On the Kola Peninsula, near the borders with Finland and Norway, Russia has built about 50 storage bunkers for submarine-launched ballistic missiles and constructed a specialized pier for loading those missiles onto submarines, according to the imagery.

Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson responded to the findings, saying Stockholm is "closely monitoring" Russian nuclear capabilities. Sweden officially joined NATO in March 2024 after years of non-alignment, citing escalating Russian threats as a primary reason.

The Kremlin has repeatedly used nuclear threats to pressure Ukraine and Western countries since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

‘Russians lie about everything’ — Ukraine hits out at Kremlin claims after yet another drone strike on Kyiv

“This is a deliberate tactic of terror,” Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) ignited an electrical substation during a sabotage operation in the Russian city of Kaliningrad, causing $5 million in damage and cutting electricity to a military production site, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.

In the early hours of June 14, Ukrainian agents drained the coolant from the substation’s power transformer before setting the facility on fire. The inferno inflicted major damage on the facility and caused a power cut, impacting nearby Russian military sites.

"We once again remind you that Russia no longer has a rear either in the east, in the west, or anywhere else on the planet. Everything Russian involved in the war against Ukraine will burn, sink, and be destroyed regardless of its level of protection or location," the source said.

Ukraine continues to carry out numerous secretive attacks within Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories, targeting military sites, like airfields, as well as key infrastructure like railways and oil refineries.

The attacks involve HUR, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) as well as partisan and sabotage groups.

HUR was behind explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia's far eastern Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment. The operations took place approximately 6,800 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, making it Ukraine's furthest incursion into Russian territory, if confirmed.

On June 1, the SBU launched Operation Spiderweb, a game-changing drone attack on four key Russian military airfields, damaging 41 planes, including heavy bombers and rare A-50 spy planes.

Ukrainian drones destroy Russian air defense systems in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, military intelligence says

Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) destroyed three Russian air defense systems using drones in the occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast on June 14, HUR says.

The Kyiv IndependentVolodymyr Ivanyshyn