The Chinese Communist Party and its army command are closely analyzing the Russia-Ukraine war, according to Newsweek. The lessons Beijing is drawing from it are helping shape its strategy of strategic competition with the US, as well as possible scenarios for a war over Taiwan, says the American think tank RAND in a new report.

However, China’s strategic interest lies not in just supporting Russia’s war machine, but in avoiding its mistakes.

The RAND report notes that Chinese military leaders are studying Russia’s failures and drawing conclusions about hybrid warfare. They also assess that the US technological advantage will diminish over time and prepare for a protracted, not a lightning-fast, conflict. Additionally, Beijing regards its defense mobilization capacity as an advantage in a war of attrition. 

China has the world’s largest navy by number of ships and 35 military shipyards. By comparison, the US has only four state-owned shipyards. This industrial potential could become a decisive factor in a prolonged conflict over Taiwan.

Beijing is also rethinking the role of non-military tools. Having seen how Russia failed to prevent escalation through information and economic levers, China is preparing for hybrid war. The US government has previously accused China of running disinformation campaigns, and this tool remains a key focus.