Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces have "put out of action" more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity through recent long-range strikes, Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said in a statement published by the Defense Ministry on 4 October. These "carefully thought-out" actions were aimed at "bleeding the Russian war machine" and "destroying its military-economic potential," Khmara said.

Ukraine treats Russia's refineries as a priority target because their revenue helps fund the war. Even Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on 1 October that the strikes had cost Russia 1% of its GDP and had "partially" achieved their goal, Interfax reported.

The ministry did not publish how it calculated the figure.

"The consequences of Ukrainian operations are not always visible immediately. But the effect accumulates and produces a tangible result," the ministry said.

Ukrainian deep strikes continue to bring the war to Russian territory

The ministry named eight recently struck facilities, among others. One of them is the Moscow Oil Refinery, which Ukraine targeted in a massive drone attack on the night of 20 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. The refinery, operated by Gazprom Neft in Moscow's Kapotnya district, supplies about 40% of Moscow's fuel market and 70% of the Moscow region's demand for gasoline and aviation fuel, according to Russian news Telegram channel Astra.

Another was KINEF, which Ukraine has attacked repeatedly. It is Russia's second-largest oil refinery by capacity, and the Ukrainian military struck it on the night of 30 August, setting off a fire at the facility.

The ministry also named the Yaroslavl, Perm, Ilsky, Saratov, and Syzran refineries and the Ust-Luga port complex.

Ukraine triples production and procurement of long-range drones—and this is not the end

This year, Ukraine has tripled the production and procurement of long-range attack drones, the ministry said.

"This is not the limit. We will continue to scale up deep-strike capabilities," the statement said.

International cooperation is part of that push. Berlin will fund the production of additional DeepStrike-class long-range drones in Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on 15 April. The sides also agreed to jointly develop and produce a medium- and long-range drone system.

Ukraine and Germany also signed an agreement on the joint production of Bars drones, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on 8 July. The Bars' modular design allows it to be used for deep strikes, among other missions.

Oil refinery output has fallen

Russian refineries cut crude oil processing by 14% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period last year amid Ukrainian drone attacks, according to calculations by two industry sources.

Experts' estimates of the decline differ widely. In August, Serhii Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center put it at 25–28%, while Russian economic commentator Vyacheslav Shiryaev put it at 65–70%, according to Defense-Aerospace.

Fuel production data give a more concrete picture: in July, Russia's gasoline and diesel output was about a quarter to a third lower than in March 2026, the outlet reported.

Ukraine has developed a new missile to knock down Russia's fast, jet-powered Shahed drones, the ones its air defenses catch far less often than older models, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 4 October, Suspilne reported. The weapon, called Nika, has not yet been tested. He announced it during a visit to Kyiv by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Russia's plants turn out an estimated 3,000 jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones a month, Ukraine's military intelligence estimates, and the jets fly fast enough to outrun the cheap interceptors built for slower, propeller-driven Shaheds. Ukraine plans about 400 units of just one of five interceptor models it is testing by the end of October, as it scrambles to close the gap before winter.

A new missile heads into testing

Both the Ukrainian and German sides have reacted positively to the missile, Zelenskyy said, though he stayed cautious on the result: for now, he said, it only "could be positive." In the same remarks, he announced a successful test of a separate system, the German-Ukrainian interceptor Spys.

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Ukraine shoots down 85-92% of propeller-driven Shaheds, Zelenskyy said. Against the jet-powered variants, interception falls to roughly 50-60%, he noted at the press conference with Merz. F-16 fighter jets help close the gap, he said.

From interceptor drones to a new missile

Over the past month, Ukraine tested a new generation of drone interceptors built for the jet-Shahed threat. On 15 September, one struck a Shahed in trials, though Zelenskyy said developers still needed to refine its control system. On 19 September, he said the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had created its own interceptor drone and used it to down a jet Shahed in combat. Nika adds a purpose-built missile to that mix.

The EU Delegation and all EU embassies will keep working in Kyiv despite Russia's warning that foreign diplomats should leave or risk their lives, EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová said on 4 October. Poland and Estonia also said their embassies would stay, calling the threats an attempt to intimidate Europe.

Russia attacks Kyiv daily as Moscow tries to make the city unlivable. Alongside the strikes, it now threatens the foreign missions that anchor Ukraine's support in the capital.

"We are staying"

Russia's Foreign Ministry singled out the embassies still working in Kyiv and the foreign officials who keep visiting Ukraine, Mathernová wrote. Moscow claimed that if something happened to them, the responsibility would be theirs.

"The responsibility for russian attacks belongs to russia! Not to anybody else," Mathernová wrote, adding: "Moscow wants to scare Europe into reducing its support for Ukraine. That will not happen."

The EU Delegation continues its work while taking the security of its team seriously, she added.

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She pointed to the morning's strike on the Northern Bridge, saying the repeated attacks disrupt the connections between the two banks of the Dnipro. People worry about getting to work, reaching their families, and getting home safely, she wrote.

Poland and Estonia keep their embassies open

Poland's Foreign Ministry said it had no intention of changing how its Kyiv embassy works. The Kremlin's threats and calls for diplomats to leave show it is trying to intimidate Europe and undermine support for Ukraine, the ministry said. Such threats contradict international law and will not work, it added.

Estonia's Foreign Ministry said its embassy stays in Kyiv and its support for Ukraine remains firm. Russia's threats only strengthen Estonia's resolve to stand with Ukraine, the ministry said.

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“Mr Putin, put an end to this senseless war”: Merz in Kyiv, with €1 billion in military aid

The European Commission also responded. Russia's threats show the Kremlin is losing the war and losing its self-control, Commission spokesperson Christian Wigand said, Suspilne reported.

More aid, more sanctions

This year alone, the EU has approved €28.3 billion ($32.3 billion) in defense procurement plans for Ukraine and is releasing another €6.6 billion ($7.5 billion) linked to military aid, Mathernová wrote. It is also moving forward with its biggest-ever sanctions listings against Russia, and this week imposed new sanctions over the deportation of Ukrainian children.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz came to Kyiv on the same day, as Russian attacks on the city continued. He and Zelenskyy visited the National Academy of Sciences building, hit by a Russian drone in September, and Zelenskyy thanked him for coming despite the air raid alert, calling it "a needed and brave signal," in a post on Telegram. Germany remains a reliable partner at Ukraine's side even in difficult times, Merz wrote.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in Kyiv on an unannounced visit on 4 October and announced more than €1.3 billion ($1.5 billion) in new German support for Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a joint press conference. Part of the money will fund interceptors against Russia's jet-powered drones, as Russian drones struck Kyiv again during Merz's visit. Merz also pledged to speed up Ukraine's EU accession and announced a Coalition of the Willing meeting in Berlin this winter.

Russia now attacks Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities daily, increasingly with jet-powered drones that outrun the cheap interceptors built for slower Shaheds. That leaves Ukraine dependent on scarce air defense missiles and on partners willing to pay for new weapons fast.

A package aimed at Russia's jet drones

The €1 billion ($1.13 billion) military part of the package includes funding for joint production of interceptor drones against jet-powered drones, Merz said. Recent technological progress means the new interceptors can quickly enter serial production, he added.

"This will quickly and noticeably strengthen Ukraine's air defense," Merz said.

The package also includes long-range weapons, combat drones, and satellite equipment, which Merz said should help Ukraine destroy Russian launchers more effectively. A separate €350 million ($394 million) will go to Ukraine's energy sector before winter, covering generators, transformer substations, and repair kits, Liga reported.

The two countries also signed an agreement on counter-drone cooperation, Merz said. He stressed that the help runs both ways, with German defense companies learning from Ukraine's war experience. The broader deal also covers joint development of weapons with a range of more than 1,000 km, Reuters reported.

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Among interceptor drones, the Bars has so far shown the best results, downing up to 30% of its targets, Zelenskyy said. He expects the first results from small missiles designed to counter jet drones in the second half of October.

"We will not be intimidated"

Before the visit, Russia's Foreign Ministry warned foreign nationals and diplomats against staying in Ukraine and threatened new massive strikes on Kyiv. Merz arrived by train with Economy Minister Katherina Reiche and a delegation of German business executives.

"Despite the threats that have reached us from Moscow in recent days, I came today... This shows: we will not let ourselves be intimidated," Merz said.

Merz and Zelenskyy visited the National Academy of Sciences, where a Russian drone killed two people and injured seven on 28 September, the State Emergency Service and the Office of the President said. An air-raid alert sounded while they spoke with rescuers, and emergency service chief Andrii Danyk showed Merz the movement of Russian drones in real time. The same day, a Russian drone hit Kyiv's Northern Bridge again.

"I can only repeat it once again from this point: Mr Putin, put an end to this senseless war," Merz said during the visit. "We are ready for talks, we are ready to discuss bringing this war to an end, but these barbaric attacks on the civilian population of Ukraine must stop," he added, Reuters reported.

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Zelenskyy called the chancellor's presence despite the alert "a needed and brave signal" from Merz personally and from all of Germany.

EU path and a Berlin meeting

Germany wants to speed up Ukraine's EU accession and is working toward that in Brussels, Merz said. He welcomed Zelenskyy's assurances on rule-of-law and anti-corruption reforms, which he said matter for further financial aid. Together with France and the UK, Germany plans to host a Coalition of the Willing meeting in Berlin this winter to coordinate further support, he added.

The trip was Merz's second to Ukraine as chancellor and his fourth since the full-scale invasion. He arrived just as his standing at home is slipping: the far-right AfD reached 30% for the first time in an INSA poll for Bild, while Merz's CDU/CSU fell to a record low of 18%. Days earlier, Merz had directly accused the AfD of having "Russian backers."

Russia struck Kyiv's Northern Bridge with a drone again on 4 October, the second hit on the crossing in two days, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. The attack damaged a heating main and rerouted public transport, as overnight and morning strikes also hit Kyiv Oblast, Dnipro, and Sumy, where one person was killed.

Russia's air attacks on Ukrainian cities are daily, and in recent days they have hit a Kyiv school sheltering children and turned supermarkets into targets. Strikes on the crossings between the capital's two banks add another layer: they disrupt how millions of people move through the city every day.

A crater on the Northern Bridge, no hot water across the river

The drone hit the bridge's roadway, and videos posted by local channels showed a crater, Liga reported. The strike also damaged a heating main, cutting hot water in Kyiv's Desnianskyi district on the left bank, Klitschko wrote. Repair crews are working to restore it, he added.

Kyiv's transport operator Kyivpastrans cut trolleybus routes short of the river. Routes 29, 30, 31, and 47 now run from the left bank only to Darnytsia Square, and routes 29, 30, and 31 run from the right bank only to Pochaina metro station. Buses 21, 73, 101, and 114 run only to Darnytsia Square because the bridge is closed to traffic.

Russia first hit the Northern Bridge on 3 October, damaging its roadway and trolleybus lines. Two people were injured, and one of them was hospitalized, Klitschko said. A day earlier, repeated drone strikes hit the Southern Bridge and forced its closure. Overnight on 4 October, drone debris also fell on two locations in Kyiv's Dniprovskyi district, Klitschko reported.

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Ukraine's government has already begun work on earth dams and pontoon crossings in case the city's Dnipro bridges are knocked out, Restoration Minister Mykola Kalashnyk told Suspilne.

The strike came as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv. Ukraine and Germany would reach important agreements during the visit, Zelenskyy said. This week alone, Russia launched more than 1,900 attack drones, 1,700 guided bombs, and 25 missiles at Ukraine, more than 800 of the drones jet-powered, he added.

135 drones overnight

Russia launched 135 attack drones at Ukraine overnight, 52 of them jet-powered Shaheds, Ukraine's Air Force reported. By 08:30, air defenses had downed or suppressed 123 drones and two Banderol or Dan-T missiles. Strikes hit five locations, and debris fell on five more.

In Kyiv Oblast, Russian drones damaged six detached houses, a car, a church, a primary school, a café, and a medical facility in Boryspil Raion, the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration said. No one was killed or injured.

Dnipro and Sumy

Russia attacked a communications company's building in central Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast head Oleksandr Hanzha reported.

"The whole street there is covered in broken glass, debris, and branches," Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov wrote, adding that nearby homes and schools escaped damage.

In Sumy, Russian drones struck an ordinary medical supplies warehouse and killed one person, Zelenskyy said. Strikes across the city injured seven people, two of them seriously, the Sumy city council said. The attack also damaged gas networks and left 70 apartments without gas.

The Kremlin is signaling that it will hold the Russian assets of European companies hostage to pressure Europe into rethinking its sanctions, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on 30 September. Moscow has already put well-known European retailers and food makers under Russian "temporary management." A senior Russian official has now hinted that European banks could be next.

As Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine, it has long turned hostages and threats into weapons. Its record includes nuclear threats against Europe from its Oreshnik missile launch sites and a fresh warning over Kaliningrad. It has played games with Europe's largest nuclear plant that it occupied in 2022, applied gas and water pressure on its neighbors, and Kyiv accuses it of blackmailing the families of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Europe's companies are now one more lever in that kit.

"Let them be scared"

Russia is taking "asymmetric measures" to make Europe rethink its sanctions, a senior Russian government source with direct knowledge of the seizures claimed, Reuters reported. "Let them think about what measures they are taking and what sanctions they are introducing," the source said.

Asked whether the Russian units of Italy's UniCredit and Austria's Raiffeisen could be placed under temporary management, the source answered: "Let them be scared."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed the decisions were driven by "the increasing level of involvement of these unfriendly countries in direct battlefield hostilities" against Russia. He suggested the moves were "reversible," but added: "For now, we do not see any grounds for a reversal."

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Nestlé, Auchan, and Metro under "temporary management"

Putin's decree of 17 September placed 16 companies under the "temporary management" of a firm called L.E.V. Management, with no end date. They include the Russian units of France's Auchan and Lemana PRO, formerly Leroy Merlin, and of Switzerland's Nestlé. A second decree, on 28 September, handed the Russian assets of German wholesaler Metro AG to UK Torg Rus.

Both decrees amend Putin's April 2023 decree No. 302, which lets Moscow take over the property of firms tied to countries it labels "unfriendly." Because the "temporary" management has no expiry date, ISW considers it effectively nationalization. Independent outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe identified L.E.V. Management's director as retired Russian Major General Andrei Krayushkin.

European companies as corporate hostages

The Kremlin likely wants to use the seizures to take European companies as corporate hostages, ISW assessed. It also likely expects a temporary fiscal boost from the revenues of the seized businesses.

The strategy assumes that European firms will judge the benefits of staying in Russia to outweigh the risk of losing their assets, the think tank said. Whether a company is seized depends entirely on Moscow's relations with the country where it is headquartered, ISW added.

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Seizing others' property is an old Moscow habit

Since the start of the full-scale war, Russia has introduced temporary administration at 135 foreign-linked firms, mostly from EU countries, according to TASS data cited by Reuters. Earlier targets included French food group Danone and Danish brewer Carlsberg.

The method was tested on Ukraine first. Russia's proxies in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts stole most Ukrainian assets there in 2014 and 2015. In March 2017, after Ukrainian activists blocked rail trade with the occupied areas, they placed the remaining Ukrainian-registered firms under "temporary administrations," a label close to the one Moscow uses today. The published Donetsk list alone ran to 43 assets, from coal mines and ironworks to the Donbas Arena stadium. Much of the coal and steel business later ended up with firms tied to Serhii Kurchenko, a fugitive oligarch from Yanukovych's era.

Several recent incidents across Europe were conducted by Russia or are likely attributable to Russia, ISW assessed in its 24 September report, though authorities have not officially linked the Polish and German incidents to Moscow.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has expanded into a parallel campaign of provocations against European defense and logistical infrastructure. The Kremlin is using drones, arson, and undersea cable sabotage to degrade Europe's will and ability to support Ukraine, while deliberately intensifying the frequency of airspace violations to erode the boundary between hybrid and kinetic war.

Drones over Moldova and Romania

Four Russian drones flew over Bukovyna and targeted an energy facility and border crossings with Moldova and Romania, Chernivtsi Oblast Military Administration head Ruslan Osypenko reported. Ukrainian forces shot down three. The fourth flew toward Suceava County in northeastern Romania.

A drone crashed in Cernița, Florești district, Moldova—preliminarily identified as a Russian Gerbera type, the first such device found in the country. It carried an onboard camera, hit a tree, and exploded, Moldovan police said. Romania's Defense Ministry reported a second aerial vehicle entered Romanian airspace for four minutes and crashed near Solca in the same border region; geolocated footage confirmed it was also a Gerbera, ISW noted. Poland evacuated the Hrubieszów and Dorohusk border crossings for 30 minutes, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. Three countries were put on alert by a single night of Russian strikes.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

Sabotage in Poland and Germany

A fire engulfed the power system and backup generator at a Starlink ground station in Wola Krobowska, central Poland, on the evening of 23 September. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski confirmed it was sabotage aimed at cutting internet access, including for Ukraine's military. Authorities have not identified who was responsible, but the act aligns with Russia's "new" doctrine of attacks, Gawkowski said. The station is now operating normally.

German authorities suspended operations at Berlin-Brandenburg airport for 45 minutes the same evening after staff reported a drone sighting, Die Zeit reported. Federal police could not confirm it. ISW assessed both incidents fit Russia's wider pattern of sabotage against European defense assets, though neither has been officially attributed to Russia.

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Western intelligence warnings

A Lithuanian Defense Ministry source reported on 23 September that Russia could launch Gerbera drones from a shipping container in the Mediterranean against Spain, France, and Italy. Danish Defense Intelligence assessed on 24 September that Russia will intensify its hybrid war in coming months, including destructive cyber attacks and sabotage carrying a high risk of casualties, and that there is a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military attack on a NATO border state. It sees no indications of an outright invasion. The CIA reportedly warned Poland that Russia may sabotage underwater cables to disrupt its banking system, according to Newsweek Polska journalists.

NATO tracked and confronted Russian submersibles rehearsing deployment of a new cable-disabling weapon near Svalbard in spring 2026—no cables were damaged, but the operation demonstrated Moscow's intent, Reuters reported. Shadow fleet vessels likely served as drone-launch platforms for incursions into NATO airspace, ISW noted.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

ISW said it has not yet seen evidence that Russia has conducted the attacks the warnings describe.

Denmark's assessment—that a limited Russian military strike on a NATO border state could come in the coming months—suggests the boundary between hybrid provocations and military action is narrower than European policy has assumed. ISW's synthesis reframes what governments have treated as separate incidents into one campaign.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

A court in Pula ruled that Ukrainian diving instructor Volodymyr Zhuravliov may be extradited to Germany over the September 2022 blasts that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany and caused major leaks in the Baltic Sea, RBC-Ukraine reported, citing his lawyers.

A Polish court refused to extradite Zhuravliov last year, but its ruling did not cancel Germany’s EU-wide arrest warrant. Croatia could therefore arrest him and decide Germany’s request for itself. The pipelines at the center of the case were built to carry Russian gas to Germany while bypassing Ukraine.

The firm Katerynchuk, Moor & Partners said it expected to receive the written ruling shortly and was preparing to challenge it in Croatia’s appellate court and before international judicial bodies. Zhuravliov also plans to announce an indefinite hunger strike. His lawyers said the Croatian court had disregarded the earlier Polish decision.

The Warsaw court refused to surrender Zhuravliov in October 2025, finding that the pipelines could be treated as a legitimate military target during an armed conflict. It released him from custody.

His Polish lawyer, Tymoteusz Paprocki, said Zhuravliov understood that the ruling applied only within Poland: under a European arrest warrant, the country where a suspect is arrested decides whether to send them to the country seeking them.

Germany amended the warrant in early September to add a war-crime classification, according to Zhuravliov’s lawyers. The change prompted the Croatian court to postpone an earlier hearing. The lawyers’ account of the amendment has not been independently confirmed.

How the Nord Stream case reached Croatia

Nord Stream 1 and 2 were built to carry Russian gas directly to Germany while bypassing Ukraine. Explosions on 26 September 2022 damaged three of their four lines; Nord Stream 2 had never entered service.

Germany issued a warrant for Zhuravliov in 2024. German prosecutors say he helped place explosives on the pipelines near Denmark’s Bornholm island. He denies involvement. Croatian police arrested him in Pula on 19 August 2026 under the European warrant.

Another Ukrainian suspect, Serhii Kuznietsov, was arrested in Italy in 2025 and later sent to Germany, where prosecutors have charged him over the explosions. He denies involvement. No court has established who ordered the attack.

Russia's propaganda center Rybar ran a covert filming operation across multiple European countries, Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) reported, citing a Czech investigation by Seznam Zprávy. The founder of the project, Mykhailo Zvinchuk, has been under sanctions by the European Union and the UK.

The EU's sanctions justification states that Rybar is a member of a working group established by Vladimir Putin in December 2022 to coordinate Russia's mobilization efforts in connection with the war against Ukraine.

Moscow has recently escalated covert influence operations and disinformation across Europe, yet years of sanctions have not stopped its operatives from working inside the EU. The Rybar case shows how thin the enforcement of those measures remains.

Rybar crew posed as documentarians in Prague

Russians moved freely within the Schengen Area, holding residence permits for EU countries, particularly Germany. They traveled to Prague posing as documentary filmmakers and attempted to record interviews with local experts and politicians. The stated pretext was a documentary series on Europe's sociopolitical situation.

When Seznam Zprávy journalists confronted the film crew at the meeting location, the propagandists fled. The investigation identified Boris Dvorkin as the Moscow-based producer of the operation. One of his projects received funding from the History of the Fatherland Foundation, established by Putin's decree and headed by Sergei Naryshkin, chief of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

Operations planned across multiple countries

Similar filming operations were allegedly planned or already carried out in Czechia, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Serbia, France, and other countries, the CCD said.

The UK sanctioned Rybar and Zvinchuk in December 2025, citing the network's interference in elections in Moldova and Armenia. It added ten more Rybar staff members in July 2026 for their role in destabilizing Ukraine. In 2024, the US State Department offered a $10 million reward for information on Zvinchuk and eight others tied to the project.

Investigators found what they believe is explosives meters from a crashed drone near the Bundeswehr's Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony, Germany, and the device matches the construction of drones used in the GRU-attributed Leipzig airport attack, Süddeutsche Zeitung, NDR, and WDR reported on 22 September. Germany's federal prosecutor and the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) have taken over the investigation, and the same reporting traced one of the Leipzig suspects to a sanctioned GRU colonel who directs sabotage against countries arming Ukraine.

Russia's sabotage campaign against countries supporting Ukraine has escalated from arson packages and recruited proxies to explosives-laden drones targeting military infrastructure inside NATO. Germany's military counterintelligence has attributed repeated sabotage on German soil to Russia, while Finnish President Stubb called the broader alarm about Russian threats an "overreaction"—a position the accumulating evidence from Germany and Poland does not support.

Explosives found days after the drone crash

A farmer discovered the drone, broken into several pieces, on the evening of 14 September, about one kilometer from the Wunstorf air base, Militarnyi reported. Days later, police found a suspicious substance just meters from the crash site. Security sources told SZ, NDR, and WDR they believe it is an explosive, though forensic analysis has not yet been completed.

The drone's design is similar to the devices used in the Leipzig airport attack on 4 August, when attackers tried to destroy Ukrainian cargo planes with explosives-laden drones. At least one component was manufactured using a 3D printer, the reporting found. Investigators believe the drone may have been near the military airfield for a long time—possibly up to two years.

Wunstorf air base houses the Bundeswehr's entire A400M transport fleet. The facility is Germany's central hub for moving troops and materiel worldwide. An explosives-laden drone near this base would represent a direct threat to the Bundeswehr's central global logistics hub.

The Wunstorf find was discussed at the weekly intelligence briefing in the Chancellery on 22 September, the outlets reported.

Leipzig suspect linked to sanctioned GRU colonel

The federal prosecutor's investigation connects the Wunstorf case to the Leipzig attack. In that case, Germany's government has officially blamed Russia. Two suspects were identified: Oleg L., a Latvian with a Russian passport, and Andrei K., a dual Belarusian-Russian citizen whose DNA was found at the Leipzig scene.

SZ, NDR, and WDR reported that Oleg L. maintained years-long contacts with GRU Colonel Denis Smolyaninov. The EU sanctioned Smolyaninov for directing sabotage operations against countries supporting Ukraine. Andrei K. had previously been noticed for minor offenses in the Baltic states and Finland and entered Germany on an Italian tourist visa. Moscow denied involvement in the Leipzig attack.

A drone violated the no-fly zone around NATO's missile shield base in Poland

The Wunstorf case came to light in the same week that a drone violated the no-fly zone around the US-operated Aegis Ashore missile defense base in Redzikowo, northern Poland, on 15 September.

Polish troops guarding the facility called civilian emergency services instead of neutralizing the drone, TVP World reported. Poland's defense ministry said the drone was a civilian device that "posed no threat" and remained under military surveillance, but Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz ordered a full report into the incident.

Germany's far-right AfD has confirmed it is in talks with Gazprom to bring Russian gas back to Germany. Its foreign-policy speaker met the Russian gas giant's chief in Moscow to discuss resuming supplies, a step that would reverse the break with Russian energy Germany made after the 2022 invasion, the party told DW.

The AfD is openly working to undo one of the West's central responses to the war. Before 2022, Russia supplied about 55 percent of Germany's gas, a dependence federal officials later blamed for Berlin's slow initial reaction to the invasion.

Cutting it cost Moscow its biggest European market. Restoring it would hand back one of its largest revenue streams at a time when energy sales fund the war.

The Kremlin has already publicly welcomed the AfD’s efforts to engage in dialogue with Moscow. Dmitriy Peskov, press secretary for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has also reacted positively to the party’s growing popularity.

The AfD confirms the Moscow talks

The confirmation came from Beatrix von Storch, deputy leader of the AfD's Bundestag faction.

The party's foreign-policy speaker, Markus Frohnmaier, was in Moscow and personally spoke with Mr. Miller of Gazprom, she said, referring to Alexei Miller, the company's chairman.

"Of course, we are interested in resuming trade. We need affordable energy and the widest possible supply, so we consider it in our interest to get supplies from Russia too, which is why we are holding these talks," she said.

The politics run through the east

The talks land as the AfD surges at the polls, topping recent votes in eastern Germany and in Berlin, contests in which Russia's war against Ukraine figured in the party's platform. Asked what signal those results send Moscow, von Storch cast the war less as foreign policy than as a domestic worry.

"Of course, it is an important topic. People fear war and that Germany will be drawn into it, let itself be drawn in, or directly enter it," she said.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to send 10 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine - a smaller number than had been paused previously while en route to the country, Axios reported on July 8, citing its sources.

Trump has also suggested that Germany sell one of its Patriot batteries to Ukraine, according to three sources cited by Axios. They said the U.S. and European allies would split the cost of the purchase.

The discussion comes as Ukraine is calling upon its allies, particularly the United States, to support Ukrainian air defense by supplying "life-saving" Patriot systems and relevant missiles.

The Pentagon said on July 2 that some military assistance to Ukraine had been halted as the U.S. Defense Department conducts a review of foreign aid deliveries.

On July 7, the Pentagon said it would renew shipments, saying the additional defensive weapons were intended to help Ukraine protect itself while the U.S. works toward "a lasting peace."

Merz called Trump to request the release of the paused interceptors, according to Axios. During the call, Trump proposed that Germany sell one of its own Patriot batteries to Ukraine.

While no agreement has been reached, officials on both sides say negotiations are ongoing. German officials maintain that Berlin has already sent a higher share of its available Patriot systems to Ukraine than any other NATO country, including the U.S.

Russia has escalated its aerial campaign against Ukraine in recent weeks, launching large-scale missile and drone attacks that have killed and injured hundreds of civilians across multiple cities.

The suspension of U.S. arms deliveries, which include Patriots and precision-guided munitions, drew criticism from Kyiv. During a July 4 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump said he was not responsible for halting the aid, according to the Wall Street Journal.

He reportedly told Zelensky that a review of U.S. munitions stockpiles was initiated after last month's U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but denied ordering a full pause in shipments.

NBC News reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth halted the shipments unilaterally on July 2, despite internal Pentagon assessments that the move would not jeopardize U.S. military readiness.

Special Envoy Keith Kellogg and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov are set to meet in Rome later this week to discuss resuming the stalled military aid, Politico reported on July 7.

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The Kyiv IndependentDr. Gary E Myers

Four Alliance 90/Greens party members have sent an open letter to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calling for a significant increase in military aid to Ukraine, Bild reported on July 5, citing a copy of the document.

The news comes as Russia’s expanded drone production has enabled Moscow to launch as many as 500 drones in a single night against Ukraine on multiple occasions each week.

The letter's authors — Robin Wagener, Sara Nanni, Sebastian Schafer, and Anton Hofreiter — demanded that certain budget items be adjusted, particularly regarding support for Ukraine. They believe that the planned increase in Germany's defense funding for Kyiv from $8.4 billion in 2024 to $9.8 billion in 2025 is insufficient, according to Bild.

The signatories emphasized the need to strengthen Ukraine's air defense systems urgently.

"Without further air defense and assured supplies, Russian dictatorship over Ukraine becomes more likely," the letter read.

The lawmakers also noted that the situation has deteriorated as Russia continues to carry out large-scale attacks on Ukraine, and the United States, for its part, has partially suspended its military aid.

The signatories reminded Merz that, thanks to the Greens party's support in the previous Bundestag, assistance to Ukraine had significantly increased.

Before becoming chancellor, Merz, elected for the CDU/CSU conservative alliance, signaled he could overturn the ban of his predecessor, Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, on delivering Taurus to Ukraine.

The Taurus is a powerful cruise missile capable of striking targets at a distance of 500 kilometers (300 miles), more than the long-range capabilities Ukraine received from other partners.

However, the German government has not approved sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine so far.

Ukraine has been using U.S.-made ATACMS for over a year, and U.K.-French Storm Shadow/SCALP for more than two, initially being allowed to deploy them only against Russian targets on Ukrainian territory.

Only in late 2024, the Biden administration and other allies eased the restrictions, allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian military targets on Russian territory.

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The Kyiv IndependentNatalia Yermak

Germany is weighing a massive defense procurement plan worth up to 25 billion euros ($29.4 billion) to supply thousands of combat vehicles for NATO's expanding force structure, Bloomberg reported on July 4, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.  

The proposed purchases are part of a broader pan-European effort to boost deterrence against Russia, as Western leaders warn of the growing risk of a large-scale war within five years.

Berlin is reportedly considering purchasing up to 2,500 GTK Boxer armored vehicles and up to 1,000 Leopard 2 battle tanks. The purchase would equip up to seven new brigades that Germany has pledged to form under NATO's force generation plans for the next decade.

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The Leopard 2 tanks are produced by KNDS Deutschland and Rheinmetall, while the Boxer is made by ARTEC, a joint venture of the same companies. Leopard 2 tanks have been supplied to Ukraine and tested in combat.

Final pricing and quantities are still under negotiation, and the projected cost could fall below 25 billion euros ($29.4 billion) depending on procurement timelines and contract terms.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and top Bundeswehr officials are reviewing the plans, with legislative approval expected by the end of the year, Bloomberg reported.

Germany has faced pressure from NATO and Washington to meet its alliance commitments, including the newly adopted pledge to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense by 2035.

The initiative, endorsed on June 25 at the NATO summit, reflects concern over Russia's wartime economy, military buildup, and destabilization efforts across Europe.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on July 1 that the decision to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine remains under consideration but stressed that Germany will not become a party to the war.

"It has always been clear that if we supply the Taurus, this weapon will be used not by German soldiers, but by Ukrainians," Merz told Tagesschau. "By the way, the same applies to other cruise missiles supplied by the United Kingdom or France."

The Taurus is a powerful cruise missile capable of striking targets at a distance of 500 kilometers (300 miles) — a greater range than the long-range weapons Ukraine has received from other partners.

Speaking to the outlet, Merz highlighted the complexity of the Taurus system, noting that it requires extensive training before Ukrainian forces can operate it. In terms of range, speed, and payload, the Taurus missile is similar to the Storm Shadow, which is produced by MBDA’s French division. The key difference lies in the warhead design — Taurus can be programmed to detonate after penetrating fortified targets, such as bunkers or reinforced facilities.

“The problem for us is that this system is extremely complex, and training soldiers on it takes at least six months. Are they already being trained? We haven't agreed on that yet,” he said. “I discussed this with President (Volodymyr) Zelensky, and I also raised it within the coalition. We haven’t started yet. It is and remains an option.”

The chancellor also added that Germany would no longer publicly disclose details about its military support to Ukraine in order to prevent Moscow from assessing the full scope of Western assistance.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Germany has provided Kyiv with approximately 47.8 billion euros (about $51.8 billion) in total bilateral support, making it Ukraine’s second-largest country donor. This aid includes military equipment, humanitarian assistance, support for refugees, infrastructure repair, and financial aid for energy and winter relief, with military support alone totaling around 28 billion euros ($30 billion).

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Ukraine looks to withdraw from a major international treaty on anti-personnel landmines to bolster its defense on the battlefield, where its troops are trying to hold off Russia’s intensifying offensive. President Volodymyr Zelensky, on June 29, had requested that Ukraine withdraw from the 1997 Ottawa Treaty that banned the production

The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

A 32-year-old Ukrainian woman and her 1-year-old daughter were found dead near their home in the German city of Dorsten, North Rhine-Westphalia, on June 29, according to a joint statement from the Essen Public Prosecutor's Office and the Recklinghausen Police.

According to the statement released on June 30, the autopsy results confirmed that both victims died from violent causes. The bodies were discovered in the Holsterhausen district of Dorsten in Germany.

Later that same evening, a 16-year-old Ukrainian boy who also resides in Dorsten appeared at the crime scene and admitted to involvement in the killings, German authorities said. He was arrested on the spot, and a criminal investigation is ongoing.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry confirmed to RBK-Ukraine that the Ukrainian woman and her daughter were murdered in Germany.

Ukraine's Consulate in Dusseldorf said it had contacted German law enforcement agencies for more information and was working to reach the relatives of both the victims and the detained teenager. The consulate reportedly confirmed that the case is under special supervision by the diplomatic mission.

German authorities said the crime scene was cordoned off for collecting evidence until the evening hours of June 29. They are now analyzing multiple tips and pieces of evidence submitted by the public.

The relationship between the teenage suspect and the victims has not yet been confirmed by investigators.

Earlier in June, a 46-year-old Ukrainian woman and her 6-year-old daughter were found murdered in the city of Leuven, Belgium. Both victims were found in the fire and had previously suffered stab wounds.

The 16-year-old son of the Ukrainian woman has confessed to fatally injuring his family and setting their home on fire. The Leven prosecutor's office said the boy admitted to the crimes after five hours of questioning.

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The Kyiv IndependentChris York

President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul met in Kyiv on June 30, where the two leaders discussed Germany supplying additional IRIS-T air defense systems, joint weapons production, and strengthening sanctions against Russia, Zelensky said.

Wadephul earlier said Germany is working with its defense industry, European allies, and the U.S. to secure more air defense systems for Ukraine.

"We are going down every path available... The German defense industry is trying to expand its capacity. We're speaking with our European partners, and I believe we must also move forward with the United States," he said.

Zelensky met with executives of German defense companies alongside Wadephul during the visit to Ukraine's capital.

"We discussed sanctions pressure on Russia, the potential for supplying new IRIS-T systems, and joint weapons production — both in Ukraine and in Germany," Zelensky said in a post to social media.

Zelensky noted Germany signalled it believes that Ukraine's future is in NATO amid Russia's war against Ukraine.

"We will continue to develop relevant military hubs and increase the presence of German companies in Ukraine. We had an in-depth discussion on interceptor drones. I am grateful for the willingness to help," Zelensky said.

Earlier in the visit, Wadephul noted that he remains in close contact with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to assess whether existing systems from Germany's own stockpiles can be redirected to Ukraine.

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The Kyiv IndependentDominic Culverwell

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul pledged on June 30 that Berlin is exploring "every possible path" to provide Ukraine with additional air defense systems, amid intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks, according to RBK-Ukraine.

Speaking at a press conference during his visit to Kyiv, Wadephul said Germany is working with its defense industry, European allies, and the U.S. to urgently secure more systems for Ukraine's air shield.

"We are going down every path available," Wadephul said. "The German defense industry is trying to expand its capacity. We're speaking with our European partners, and I believe we must also move forward with the United States."

He added that he remains in close contact with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to assess whether existing systems from Germany's own stockpiles can be redirected to Ukraine.

Wadephul's visit came just a day after Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine to date, firing 477 drones and 60 missiles in a 24-hour period. In a video message posted on social media earlier on June 30, the German minister described Ukraine as "a country once again haunted by war," and reaffirmed Germany's solidarity.

"Germany stands by Ukraine," Wadephul said. "We must not allow freedom to be lost here. We have to support this country and ensure that a ceasefire is finally achieved. (Russian President Vladimir) Putin must realize he cannot continue this war and must negotiate a peace solution."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha welcomed Wadephul's visit in a post on X, saying the two discussed how to counter Russian aggression and deepen bilateral ties.

Sybiha said they also spoke about Germany's role in Ukraine's development of long-range capabilities and drones, calling it "win-win cooperation"— as well as Berlin's support for the 18th EU sanctions package and Ukraine's path to EU membership.

"I am grateful to Minister Wadephul for his moral clarity and personal contribution to Ukraine's resilience," Sybiha added.

Wadephul is expected to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky later during his visit.

The German foreign minister emphasized that witnessing the destruction firsthand is critical to understanding Ukraine's suffering and the urgency of sustained international support.

"This is indeed a difficult situation," Wadephul said. "And that is why German solidarity is so important right now."

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The Kyiv Independent’s Francis Farrell explains a new modification of the standard first-person view (FPV) drone that already once transformed the way war is fought. Fiber optic cable now used to connect drone operators to FPVs ensures a perfect image and control experience all the way to the target — and cannot be spotted by enemy drone detectors.

The Kyiv IndependentFrancis Farrell

German fighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea near NATO airspace on the morning of June 27, the German tabloid Bild reported.

The incident adds to a series of aerial provocations reported by NATO allies since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as Moscow is suspected of using the aircraft to spy on the alliance's positions.

The Russian Il-20M, which took off from Kaliningrad with its transponder switched off, was headed west toward international airspace near Poland and Germany when it was detected by NATO radar systems.

NATO alerted the German Armed Forces’ Quick Reaction Team (QRT), prompting the launch of two Eurofighter jets to intercept the aircraft.

The German jets made visual contact with the Russian plane approximately 100 kilometers off the German coast and took a photograph of it. Despite the interception, the Il-20M did not alter its course.

The Russian aircraft eventually veered north, just 40 kilometers from the Baltic Sea island of Usedom, avoiding a breach of German airspace.

According to Bild, this was the ninth such interception mission conducted by German forces in 2025.

As Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine and poses an increasing threat to NATO, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung published on June 27 that he would refrain from phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin given the intensified attacks on Ukraine.

Merz’s predecessor, Olaf Scholz, was the first EU leader from a country supporting Ukraine to resume direct contact with Putin since the start of the full-scale invasion, speaking with him by phone in November 2024.

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The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Germany aims to prioritize defense spending in the next EU budget while firmly opposing any increase in national contributions, according to a position paper obtained by the Financial Times (FT).

As the bloc’s largest economy and top net contributor, Berlin wants EU funds to support joint arms procurement and help expand production capacity among European weapons manufacturers.

The paper reportedly reflects Germany’s broader shift toward higher domestic military spending in response to Russia’s ongoing threat and amid calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for Europe to shoulder more of its own defense.

Berlin argues the EU budget should also fund dual-use technologies, military transport corridors, and other security-related initiatives despite current treaty restrictions on defence spending from the common budget, according to FT.

To free up funds for these priorities, Germany proposes cutting administrative costs and simplifying the EU budget structure. The government supports reducing the number of programes, granting the European Commission more flexibility to shift funds, and focusing spending on strategic areas such as cross-border infrastructure, energy security, digitalisation, and innovation.

Germany also opposes any extension of the EU’s post-Covid joint borrowing programme, stressing that repayments for the 800 billion euro fund must begin in 2028 as scheduled. While Berlin is open to discussing new EU-level revenue sources such as a carbon border levy or minimum corporate tax, it continues to reject an increase in direct national contributions to the budget, which currently total about 1% of EU GDP.

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The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include Germany's announcement to supply Ukraine with $2.2 billion in additional military aid.

Germany will deliver new IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine under a three-year supply plan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a joint press conference with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who added Berlin has no plans to provide Taurus long-range missiles.

The announcement comes amid escalating Russian aerial assaults, including a June 10 missile and drone strike on Kyiv, one of the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion.

"We are grateful for the supply of IRIS-T air defense systems," Zelensky said on June 12. "We understand that deliveries are currently being planned... for the next three years. This is very important assistance."

The IRIS-T is a German-made medium-range surface-to-air missile system capable of intercepting drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles.

Pistorius confirmed the delivery timeline but firmly ruled out the possibility of sending Taurus missiles — weapons Kyiv has repeatedly requested to strike deep into Russian territory.

"You asked me whether we are considering this, and my answer is no," Pistorius said.

Before taking office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signaled openness to lifting former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ban on the missiles. That stance has not yet resulted in a policy shift.

Ukraine has already received long-range missiles — including ATACMS from the U.S. and Storm Shadow and SCALP from the U.K. and France. Initially restricted to use within Ukrainian territory, Western allies only began easing those limitations in late 2024.

Germany is Ukraine's largest military donor in Europe. Pistorius said that Berlin will provide 9 billion euros ($10.4 billion) in aid this year, with investments in defense production being considered. The total includes an additional commitment in military aid worth 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion).

"Today, we discussed that this aid will continue," he said. "We agreed on additional investments in production... both in Ukraine and in Germany."

Zelensky visited Berlin on May 28 for talks with Merz, part of an ongoing effort to bolster Ukraine's defense industry amid uncertainty over U.S. support under President Donald Trump.

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The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post