More than half of Ukrainians expect their country to join the European Union within the next decade, though confidence in rapid accession has declined for the second consecutive year, according to a Gallup poll.

The survey asked respondents when they expect Ukraine to become an EU member: within 10 years, 10-20 years, more than 20 years, or never. Some 52% believe membership will occur within 10 years – the lowest figure since the start of the full-scale war. This represents a significant drop from 2022-2023, when 73% held this view.

About 16% of respondents expect EU accession within 10-20 years, while 5% believe it will take more than 20 years. Some 18% do not believe Ukraine will ever be accepted into the EU – the highest such figure in recent years, though the increase in skeptics was smaller than for a similar question about NATO membership.

The poll also revealed that Ukrainians’ assessment of US leadership in 2025 reached its lowest point in more than 10 years, while approval of Berlin’s actions hit a multi-year high.

The data shows a clear shift in Ukrainian public opinion regarding EU integration timelines. The 21% decline in those expecting rapid EU membership – from 73% in 2022-2023 to 52% currently – represents the most substantial change in public sentiment on this issue since the war began.

Despite the declining optimism for quick accession, the majority of Ukrainians maintain faith in eventual EU membership. Only 18% expressing complete skepticism about the prospect.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on 25 July proposed “strategic cooperation” with Ukraine instead of full European Union membership, arguing that Kyiv’s EU accession would bring the war with Russia directly into Europe’s core.

The Hungarian government, widely viewed as the EU’s most pro-Russian leadership, has blocked or delayed military aid to Ukraine, maintained ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and repeatedly echoed Kremlin narratives regarding the war.

“EU membership for Ukraine would drag the war into the heart of Europe, a risk our families should not have to face,” Orban wrote on X. “These times call for calm judgement, not theatrical threats.”

The Hungarian leader outlined his country’s alternative approach as “pragmatic, flexible, and rooted in mutual interest — not irreversible integration.” This position puts Hungary at odds with 26 other EU member states, which on 26 July declared support for continued accession talks with Ukraine and agreed to consider the European Commission’s assessment that Ukraine is ready to open the “Fundamentals” cluster of negotiations.

Orban characterized Ukraine as a “buffer state” and drew parallels to Hungary’s Cold War experience.

The Hungarian government has cited domestic opposition to Ukraine’s EU membership as justification for its stance. In a national consultation announced 26 June, Budapest claimed 95% of participants rejected Kyiv’s accession. Orban publicly voted against Ukrainian membership and shared a photo of his ballot in April.

However, the poll’s credibility faced scrutiny. Opposition leader Peter Magyar dismissed the consultation as a “government propaganda campaign” and cited internal data from Magyar Posta indicating only 3-7% of mailed ballots were returned.

Telex reported that the voting system could be manipulated, with testing showing users could vote twice using different email addresses.

Ukraine applied for EU membership shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and received candidate status within months. As an EU member, Hungary holds veto power over Ukraine’s accession progress.

Earlier in July, Orban claimed that most EU countries would vote against Ukrainian membership if “national referendums” were held, similar to Hungary’s consultation. Political director and advisor to Orban, Balazs Orban, recently stated that Ukraine’s war against Russia is not fought for Hungary’s security.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's ongoing support for Ukraine at a NATO summit in The Hague on June 24.

"We have designed a funding program of 50 billion euros, we call it Safe, where member states, but also Ukraine and other partners, can take these loans to invest in the (Ukrainian) defense industry," she said, addressing President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"We are integrating our defense industries as if Ukraine was in the EU. This is good for Ukraine. And just as good for Europe, as Ukraine is now home to extraordinary innovation," von der Leyen later said in a post to social media.

NATO is holding a summit in The Hague from June 24-25 with world leaders, including Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump present.

"(M)y dear friend Volodymyr, you're here among friends and we stand by Ukraine from the very first day on and you can count on us also for the future," von der Leyen said.

The leader described the EU's 18th sanctions package as a "biting one" to apply pressure on Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Secondly, of course, there's constant financial support to Ukraine because we know you're fighting a war that is also protecting our values and our principles, and thirdly, indeed, we have to put pressure on President Putin (so) that he comes to the negotiation table," von der Leyen said.

She noted that members of the Group of Seven (G7) will also be implementing additional sanctions against Russia.

"All this shows you are among friends, you can count on us, we stand by your side," von der Leyen said.

The White House has confirmed that Trump and Zelensky will hold a meeting at the NATO summit.

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Hungary's national consultation on Ukraine's accession to the EU had the lowest ever turnout at such a poll, Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar said on June 21.

"The... government propaganda campaign is a total failure. Based on information we received from multiple sources within Magyar Posta (Hungarian Post), only 3-7% of the sent 'ballots' were returned," Magyar said in a post to social media.

The poll was announced by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in early March and officially launched on April 19 with ballot papers sent to Hungarian citizens. Many ballot papers explicitly encouraged voters to reject Ukraine’s EU bid.

Orban, on April 22, said he voted against Ukraine's accession to the EU in the national consultation, publicly sharing photos of himself marking "against" on the poll ballot.

"This means that realistically, a maximum of 500,000 people may have 'voted' on paper... the Prime Minister’s Office revealed... that the number of online submissions was negligible compared to the paper-based ones," Magyar said.

"This aligns with information received from government sources — indicating that despite the propaganda lies, the total number of 'voters' could be at most 600,000," he added.

Despite the government's resistance, polling shows public support for Ukraine's accession to the bloc. According to Magyar's opposition party, Tisza's "Voice of the Nation" initiative, which received over 1.1 million responses, 58.18% of participants supported Ukraine's EU bid.

Magyar claims that the national poll garnered around 600,000 responses would mean that the opposition party's own polling received more responses than the government poll.

"This is the lowest number in the 'glorious' history of (national consultations). And this was only achieved over several months, with total mobilization and the burning of tens of billions in public funds. A total failure," Magyar said.

Hungarian officials have repeatedly threatened to undermine Ukraine's EU candidacy and EU support for Ukraine. Hungary has repeatedly blocked or delayed EU aid packages for Kyiv.

"(T)he failed, corrupt regime doesn’t care about people's real problems, and doesn’t dare to look people in the eye. They only send them letters," Magyar said.

Comrades, be proud of lying about two million pen pals, funded by 10 billion forints ($29 million) in state propaganda," he added, addressing Hungary's ruling government.

European officials have denounced Hungary for aligning with Russia. European officials, including Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, have suggested stripping Hungary of its voting power within the bloc.

Hungary maintains positive relations with Russia in contrast with other EU members. On March 26, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto visited Moscow to discuss continued economic cooperation between the two countries.

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Editor’s note: This story was published in conjunction with Grist. Twenty-two-year-old software developer Artem Motorniuk has spent his entire life in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, living in the north and visiting his grandparents in the south. It’s been almost four years since he’s seen them in person.

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