Belarus is expanding its military footprint on the Ukrainian border again, standing up a new brigade near the frontier, the commander of its Special Operations Forces said on state television. President Lukashenka insists the buildup is defensive and that Belarus will not be dragged into the war.

Russia has long treated Belarusian soil as a forward base and pressure point—a way to rattle Ukraine's north and NATO's eastern edge without spending its own overstretched army, sustained through drills, troop moves, and nuclear signaling.

A new brigade taking shape

The unit is the 37th separate air-assault brigade under Belarus's Special Operations Forces—its fourth such airborne brigade. It will be based near the city of Homiel, just across from Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast and about 40 km from the frontier. The permanent move to that base is set for 2027. Colonel Aliaksandr Ilyukevich, who commands the Special Operations Forces, laid out the plan on Belarus's Defense Ministry VoenTV channel on 2 August, Militarnyi reported.

By his account, one battalion is already formed, with a second due this year alongside reconnaissance, air-defense, and artillery units. Ilyukevich had first described that battalion back in February on another Belarusian state channel. His August appearance restated it and attached the unit's new 37th designation.

Why the northern buildup still costs Ukraine

Belarus has never put its own soldiers into Ukraine. It did hand Russia the launchpad for the 2022 drive on Kyiv, though, and it has kept the border militarized ever since—even hosting Russian hardware such as the drone relay stations Kyiv later pressed Minsk to pull.

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A standing brigade on the frontier still does not add up to an imminent invasion. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) still judges a Belarusian ground assault very unlikely. However, every new unit in the north ties down Ukrainian troops and air defenses that Kyiv needs elsewhere, and it gifts Russia a threat it can activate without firing a shot—the same hybrid playbook Minsk runs against EU neighbors, funneling migrants toward Latvia.

World Boxing has stripped away the last restrictions on Russian competitors, clearing them to fight under their national flag rather than as neutrals, Reuters reported. The move brings the sport into line with a wider loosening across international competition, as the Olympic movement edges Russia back toward the Games while its war on Ukraine grinds on.

Boxing lifts the neutral-status rule

World Boxing's executive committee approved the change at a meeting that also discussed the allocation of major competitions in the 2027-29 cycle, which take in the qualifying route to the Los Angeles 2028 Games. 

 "The ExCo accepted that Russian athletes would now take part in World Boxing competitions like boxers from any other national federation," the body said.

he governing body attached only a monitoring commitment, none of it tied to the war. It said it would "strictly monitor the behaviour of Russian delegations during events as well as compliance with the anti-doping protocols." That pledge to police Russian anti-doping sits oddly beside Russia's own record, since WADA recently closed an eight-year case into the country's state-run doping program with hundreds of athlete sanctions.

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Sport keeps reopening its doors to Russia

The boxing decision follows the International Olympic Committee provisionally reinstating Russia's Olympic body this month, clearing Russia's path back toward the 2028 Los Angeles Games. It caps a run of federations doing the same through 2026: artistic gymnastics scrapped its restrictions in May, muaythai restored Russian flags and anthems alongside wrestling, judo, sambo and taekwondo days later, and tennis never dropped the neutral pathway at all.

Not every sport has bent the same way. World chess went in the opposite direction in June, when the International Chess Federation suspended the Russian Chess Federation, the first time it had stripped its most powerful member of its membership rights. 

US former top health official, who was subpoenaed to appear at a Senate hearing into Covid-19, says Markson’s reporting about virus’s origin ‘does not make any sense’

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Dr Anthony Fauci, the US’s chief medical adviser at the start of the pandemic, has described a book by News Corp investigative journalist Sharri Markson backing the “lab leak” theory of Covid-19’s origins as a “bunch of nonsense” in his newly released diaries.

This week, Fauci, 85, was subpoenaed by the Republican senator Rand Paul to appear at a Senate hearing into Covid-19 and his handling of the pandemic.

Six years on from Covid crisis, Republicans still politicizing science – and Fauci remains a political punching bag

A US Senate committee hearing featuring Dr Anthony Fauci revealed at least one certainty: six years after the pandemic, politicizing science remains a vital political tactic.

The high-profile hearing was pitched by its Republican chair, Rand Paul of Kentucky, as an investigation into the origins of the Covid pandemic. It quickly became a forum for recrimination of a once-leading US government scientist by Republican senators.

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Gary Peters, the Democratic ranking member on the homeland security committee, said that the committee has a long history of bipartisan inquiry and oversight, and the subject matter of risky research and the origins of covid-19 are a legitimate area to study.

But today’s hearing with Anthony Fauci was not an example of that, Peters said.

Adviser to Trump and Biden for pandemic says Republican senator has ‘unhinged obsession’ with him

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Dr Anthony Fauci refused to answer questions at a high-profile Senate committee hearing on the origins of Covid-19 and accused the Republican senator leading questioning of having an “unhinged obsession” with him.

Fauci, the veteran former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Niaid), served as a key adviser to Donald Trump and Joe Biden during the Covid-19 pandemic. The hearing was called by Kentucky senator Rand Paul, who has investigated Fauci for years.

Lithuanian border guards have found an unfinished underground passage dug from Belarus toward their territory, Lithuania's public broadcaster LRT reported. The shaft never broke through to the surface on the Lithuanian side, so nobody used it. Lithuania's border service reads the dig was probably meant to move migrants across the frontier.

Vibrations in the soil gave the diggers away

Officers working in the Varėna district, in Lithuania's southeast, registered vibrations in the ground last Wednesday, LRT reported, citing the country's border service. The tremors suggested that someone was cutting an underground passage from the Belarusian side. Polish specialists joined the search and brought equipment built to locate tunnels. The crews drilled a control hole and found the passage underneath.

The State Border Guard Service (VSAT) put the tunnel's diameter at about one meter and its depth at about 1.5 meters. It had no exit onto Lithuanian soil. VSAT said the dig was probably intended for illegal border crossings by migrants.

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Lithuania's border chief points at the guards on the other side

The find was not an isolated one, according to VSAT head Rustamas Liubajevas. Migrants have changed tactics and increasingly use tunnels or caves, he told the Lithuanian news portal 15min. Border guards have identified tens of places where digging is almost certainly under way, he added.

"Without logistical support from the Belarusian border guards, this would not be possible," he said, pointing to the timber that reinforces the shaft, needed for work going on right next to the border line.

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Poland has pulled the same passages out of its own frontier

VSAT recalled that border services had found similar tunnels before, in Lithuania and in Poland, used to smuggle goods and to move people out of Belarus. In December 2025, Polish border guards uncovered a passage that more than 180 foreigners had already used to enter the country. Border Guard spokesman Andrzej Juźwiak said the dig was professionally prepared, tall enough for people to move through freely and several dozen meters long.

Another tunnel turned up in Poland's Podlaskie Voivodeship in October 2025, under the barrier on the Belarusian border. That one started on Belarusian territory and stopped about 20 meters short of the line.

The pressure on this border goes back to 2021

Migration became a tool on this frontier in 2021, after Western sanctions hit Belarus over the falsified presidential election and the crackdown on the opposition and on protests. A flow of migrants from Middle Eastern countries then surged toward the borders of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. European governments hold that Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime engineered that crisis on purpose, adding flights from the Middle East as revenge. Lithuania answered by turning people back toward Minsk and by building a wall along the Belarusian border.

The methods have multiplied since then. Smuggling balloons launched from Belarus have grounded flights and cost Lithuanian airports hundreds of thousands of euros, and Polish crews have collected them out of fields carrying cigarettes and, in one Christmas Eve wave, GPS trackers. Latvia went further and put Belarusian military documents on the record, taken off a detained migrant. 

Letter, published before Anthony Fauci will appear before Congress, accuses Republicans of ‘waging a war on individual scientists’

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More than 155 scientists, physicians and public health advocates have called for an end to what they describe as the “vilification and harassment of many American scientists” by the Trump administration and its allies.

In an open letter published one day before Anthony Fauci, the former top US government science adviser, is scheduled to appear at a high-profile hearing in US Congress, after the Republican-controlled Senate homeland security and governmental affairs committee compelled him to testify, the scientists and physicians dismissed allegations against the ex-National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Niaid) director as “baseless”.

Lithuania wants Russians who performed in occupied Ukraine to sign a declaration condemning the war or stay out. Lithuania's Foreign Ministry has proposed amending the national sanctions law with new restrictions on Russians and Belarusians who support the war against Ukraine, including barring them from entering the country, the Baltic News Service (BNS) reported.

The proposal targets Russians and Belarusians in culture, science, art, or sport who performed in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories or directly or indirectly supported the war, who would be denied entry to Lithuania.

To be allowed in for educational or cultural events, citizens of those countries would have to sign and publicly release a declaration condemning Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity. The refusal to sign would mean an automatic entry ban.

The Foreign Ministry also proposed suspending the right of Russians and Belarusians with residence permits to buy real estate near national security sites and military training grounds.

If the Seimas adopts the amendments, they would take effect on 1 January next year.

"This is part of the state's efforts to strengthen resilience to the influence of hostile regimes and to protect Lithuania's national security interests," the ministry said.

The proposal extends a steady Lithuanian tightening

The measure is the latest in a progression Lithuania has been building for years. In May 2025, Lithuania stripped residence permits from Russians and Belarusians who frequently visited their home countries, a measure affecting more than 14,000 Russian permit holders, and already bans Russians without residence permits from buying Lithuanian real estate.

The new proposal adds a cultural-and-scientific dimension and a novel requirement: a public loyalty declaration as the price of entry for artists and academics.

The real-estate provision fits a separate security logic. Restricting Russian and Belarusian nationals from buying property near military sites addresses sabotage concerns that Baltic states have repeatedly raised, part of hardening NATO's eastern flank against the hostile regimes on Lithuania's borders.

Former top US health official wrote about challenging interactions with publicity-fixated Trump during Covid

Diary entries released by a Republican senator in an attempt to damage Anthony Fauci also show the former top US government science adviser’s growing disillusionment with Donald Trump in the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, branding the president “rambling”, “crazy”, “desperate”, “bumbling”, “incompetent”, “an idiot”, “a true embarrassment”, “totally nuts” and “truly an obnoxious adolescent”.

From the earliest days of the crisis six years ago, Fauci noted in his journal challenging interactions with the publicity-fixated Trump. On 27 February 2020, amid the first stirrings of public alarm, he wrote of a surprise late-night call, in which the US president “wanted to chat about the coronavirus situation in general”.

Russia struck two Ukrainian cities hundreds of kilometers apart in daytime attacks on 26 July, hitting a supermarket and residential areas and killing civilians including a child, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and local officials in Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia. The local authorities reported deaths and more than a dozen wounded. Zelenskyy called the strikes deliberate terror with no military purpose and renewed his push for tougher sanctions on Moscow.

Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram that Russian forces keep "defeating" ordinary civilian objects, calling the Chernihiv strike an absolutely cynical drone attack on an ordinary supermarket. Meanwhile, Zaporizhzhia was struck by aerial bombs. 

"They hit people directly, with no military sense at all," he said. "This is deliberate Russian terror that has no military justification whatsoever." 

A drone hit an ATB supermarket in Chernihiv

In the northern city of Chernihiv, a Russian drone struck an ATB supermarket, part of Ukraine’s largest no-frills grocery network, around the middle of the day. City military administration head Dmytro Bryzhynskyi first reported two people killed and three wounded. He later noted that a child was among the dead. As rescuers worked, he reported one victim in serious condition, then said the number of wounded had climbed to seven. 

Later that afternoon, he updated the toll to 13 injured — four men and nine women — with three hospitalized in moderate condition. In a subsequent update, he said 20 people had sought medical care and three were hospitalized.

Chernihiv Oblast administration head Viacheslav Chaus identified the dead child as a 9-year-old girl. He said a 10-year-old boy was among the wounded and that three people were in intensive care. Other strikes in the city damaged cars and vehicle service stations, Chaus added. 

Guided bombs killed a man in Zaporizhzhia

Far to the south, Russian guided aerial bombs hit the city of Zaporizhzhia. Regional administration head Ivan Fedorov reported that the bombs damaged residential and non-residential buildings and an educational institution. One person was killed and six were wounded, according to Fedorov and the regional prosecutor’s office. The man who died was 46. The regional prosecutor's office said a gas station was also damaged.

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Russia destroys a Home Depot-style megastore in Kryvyi Rih—the third one it has erased in the same region since 2024

Hours earlier, Russian drones burned down a home-improvement megastore in Kryvyi Rih, the third such store wrecked in that southern region since 2024.

Poland and the three Baltic states have not built a continuous, defense-in-depth line of fortifications along their borders with Russia and Belarus, according to open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst Clément Molin. He assessed Poland and the three Baltic states, while the Polish account Służby i Obywatel separately examined one fortification section near Poland’s border with Russia. The works mentioned in Molin’s review remain patchy and shallow, and he called Lithuania both the country most at risk and the least fortified.

What the satellites actually show

Molin wrote on X about Poland and the Baltic states, while the Polish account Służby i Obywatel argued separately about the placement of one Polish fortification section visible on Google Maps.

On Poland's 210-kilometer border with Kaliningrad, Russia's heavily militarized exclave, defenses appear in only four zones, according to Molin. The longest runs about two kilometers. The visible fortifications include a discontinuous anti-tank ditch and one or two rows of dragon's teeth — concrete anti-tank blocks. Neither forms a continuous line. 

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The ditches break off wherever they reach a forest line. Molin wrote that bunkers and trenches sit in open fields, most key roads stay unprepared, and little barbed wire is visible. The researcher said he could see only anti-migrant barriers in open areas along the Belarusian border, with little additional reinforcement underway.

Molin's sweep also rated Finland's groundwork as strong despite its recent entry into NATO, while Norway, he wrote, offered "nothing particular to see."

Trenches at the fence line

Near the Polish village of Rutka, trenches were dug just 300 meters from the border fence. Militarnyi wrote that positions this close would remain under observation and drone control, while Służby i Obywatel said a defending unit would face concentrated fire at the outset of fighting. 

Służby i Obywatel compared the works to the historical Mława Position, built five to 15 kilometers back from the frontier, which gave troops time to occupy defenses once an invasion started. They also noted that such border barriers can be bypassed or flanked, while Militarnyi wrote that their placement does not always channel enemy movement. Służby i Obywatel questioned whether building so tight to the fence makes sense, arguing that positions a few kilometers back on better terrain would make Russia deploy its forces and reveal its intent before attacking.

The Baltic states

The Suwałki Gap is a 65-km strip along the Poland–Lithuania border between Kaliningrad and Belarus—NATO's only land link to the Baltic states, whose loss would cut them off by land, leaving only sea and air routes exposed to Russian missiles.

Molin called Lithuania the country most at risk because it borders Kaliningrad and Belarus and sits beside the Suwałki Gap. It has fortified the least. Despite an official roadmap, Molin said he found no prepared defenses and no coverage of key roads on the imagery. The country is, however, building road infrastructure to reach remote areas along its eastern border.

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Estonia’s current fortification level as very low and pointed to the persistent threat around Narva, according to Molin. Direct construction work has not begun. 

Latvia is further along than either neighbor. Crews have started installing dragon's teeth and clearing a strip to create a defensive line, helped by extensive border forests and greater strategic depth, though the works there remain fragmentary too.

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The "Eastern Shield"

Poland began building its Eastern Shield fortification system on the borders with Russia and Belarus in October 2024. The system is meant to cover nearly 700 kilometers, with 400 to 500 kilometers protected by various fortification types and the rest by natural barriers. The plan calls for a coherent network of engineering obstacles and storage sites on designated land. The government intends to invest about €2.3 billion, with completion set for 2028.

From October 2024 to mid-July 2026, Poland reportedly built 61 kilometers of defensive lines under the program. Of that, linear fortifications account for only about 10 kilometers. 

Poland has proposed a three-way defense industry partnership with the United States and Ukraine to produce missiles for Patriot air defense systems, Polish Deputy Defense Minister Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka said during talks in Washington, according to Polish state news agency PAP.

The proposal comes as Ukraine faces a growing threat from Russian ballistic missile attacks, while supplies of interceptors for the few systems capable of stopping them remain limited. Patriot is currently Ukraine’s main defense against these weapons, making expanded production a key priority for Kyiv.

The proposal would involve cooperation between Poland, Ukraine, and the US, with production located in a secure location. Sobkowiak-Czarnecka said the offer was aimed at addressing concerns over where such manufacturing could take place, as Ukraine remains under Russian missile and drone attacks.

Proposal follows discussions on Patriot production in Ukraine

According to PAP, Sobkowiak-Czarnecka said her talks with officials from the Pentagon and the US State Department included potential Patriot missile production, defense cooperation, US military presence in Poland, and the SAFE financing mechanism.

She said discussions also covered remarks by US President Donald Trump at a NATO summit in Ankara about the possibility of establishing a Patriot production facility in Ukraine.

“The idea is for this production to be connected with Ukraine,” Sobkowiak-Czarnecka said, according to PAP.

The Polish deputy minister proposed expanding the arrangement into a trilateral partnership involving the US, Ukraine, and Poland, arguing that Poland could help provide a safer environment for production.

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Poland seeks role in Patriot maintenance and broader defense cooperation

Sobkowiak-Czarnecka also presented arguments for establishing a Patriot maintenance center in Poland, citing the country’s growing defense industry and strategic location on NATO’s eastern flank.

The talks in Washington also covered additional US military presence in Poland. Sobkowiak-Czarnecka said both countries have established teams working on preparations for a potential US base, though final decisions on troop deployments would depend on President Trump.

She also said discussions continued on a possible $4 billion US Foreign Military Financing loan for Poland to purchase American military equipment, with hopes that an agreement could be signed within weeks.

Ukraine seeks expanded air defense production amid Russian attacks

Patriot systems have become among Ukraine’s most important air defense assets, particularly against Russian ballistic missile attacks that are difficult to intercept with many other systems.

Ukraine has repeatedly called for greater air defense support as Russia continues large-scale missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Expanding production capacity for Patriot-related systems has become part of wider efforts by Kyiv and its partners to strengthen long-term defense capabilities.

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The European Union has adopted its largest sanctions package against Russia in four years, targeting the banks, oil refineries, and drone-manufacturing networks that fund Moscow's war in Ukraine. The Council of the EU approved the measures on 23 July.

The EU has sanctioned Russia its 2014 seizure of Crimearolling out numbered packages every few months since the 2022 full-scale invasion, even as member states repeatedly clash over how far each package should reach. Because sanctions take months to negotiate and adopt, Russia has repeatedly adapted and evaded many restrictions using various evasion schemes.

What the package includes

The 21st round adds 218 new designations, 48 individuals and 170 entities, the biggest batch of listings in four years. The Council said the package aims to further weaken Russia's economy and war machine, in response to Russia's recent strikes on civilian energy, water, and health infrastructure.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc is hitting over a hundred banks and crypto operators, more than 40 shadow fleet vessels, and several oil refineries in Russia and Belarus, plus more than 50 military-industrial entities tied to Russia's long-range drones.

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The 21st package covers several sectors. It includes:

• Banks and finance: asset freezes on 94 banks and financial institutions, a transaction ban extended to 33 more Russian credit institutions, a Kyrgyz bank linked to Russia, and three other non-Russian banks accused of helping Moscow evade sanctions.
• Crypto: 14 platforms in Georgia, Panama, the UAE, the Marshall Islands, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus added to the transaction ban, plus a first-time option for a full EU ban on crypto providers in an entire third country.
• Oil price cap: automatic adjustments paused until 15 July 2027 amid market disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure.
• Shadow fleet: rules widened to cover fuel and support providers, with 41 tankers added to a blacklist already covering 632 ships.
• Oil sector: 18 entities and one individual designated, including three Russian refineries and a major Belarusian one, plus a new tool to ban third-country refineries processing Russian crude, applied to one in Kulevi, Georgia, effective in six months.
• Drone supply chains: 56 listings tied to Russia's military-industrial complex, 37 linked to long-range drones, and 51 more entities facing tighter dual-use export curbs, including firms in China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, and the UAE.
• Visa ban: legal basis laid for a future EU-wide ban on current and former Russian military personnel, with no effective date set. A European Commission official told Suspilne details could take until October, with Italy and France objecting over scope.
• Propaganda and war crimes: eight individuals sanctioned for spreading Russian war propaganda, and a Russian major general designated over the torture, execution, and desecration of Ukrainian prisoners of war, building on human rights sanctions from 13 July.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked EU member states, calling the package a set of strong steps to limit Russian revenue. Acting Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha welcomed the measures too, singling out the visa-ban groundwork as a step to keep who fight for, aid, or profit from the war out of the EU.

Russia is now tearing apart brand-new planes to keep older ones in the air. The country's civil aviation continues to deteriorate under international sanctions, forcing it to dismantle even new, fully equipped aircraft to obtain spare parts, Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) reports.

About 95% of all passenger traffic in Russia operates on Western-built aircraft, mostly Airbus and Boeing, according to HUR, a figure consistent with the roughly 90% EP has reported in earlier Ukrainian intelligence assessments.

Much of that fleet has flown past its guaranteed service life and would long since have been retired under international norms, but cut off from certified maintenance, Russia keeps flying it against the rules.

Repairs are carried out without proper certification, parts are often handmade from unsuitable materials, and what cannot be made is imported through third countries. 

The usable fleet is shrinking toward a hard floor

The risk of seizure abroad has boxed Russia's usable fleet into a narrow set of planes. Because of the danger of arrest in foreign jurisdictions, Russia can relatively safely operate only about 400 foreign aircraft and fewer than 150 Soviet and Russian-built machines, according to HUR.

The 400-aircraft figure tracks the roughly 400 Western jets Russia appropriated from foreign leasing companies after the 2022 full-scale war, planes it re-registered domestically and cannot fly to most of the world without risking impoundment. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported in October 2025 that Russian carriers could shed hundreds of planes by 2030 as sanctions block imports of aircraft, parts, and maintenance, with more than a third of the civil fleet already cannibalized for parts. 

The homegrown replacement program is failing on the specifics

Russia's plan to replace Western aircraft with its own is ambitious on paper and stalling in practice. The state has a program running to 2030, worth about $12 billion, to build 994 civilian aircraft and 765 helicopters, according to HUR, but an industry cut off from Western technology cannot make components of adequate quality.

The failures are specific and checkable. The MC-21, meant to replace the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, had to have its capacity cut from 210 to 163 seats because of problems with its domestic PD-14 engines. The Superjet has hit similar engine trouble, and Russia has abandoned new modifications of the Il-96 entirely.

Regional aviation is no better. The LMS-901 "Baikal," meant to replace the Ukrainian-designed An-2, cannot do what its predecessor could: take off and land on unprepared dirt strips. The Il-114-300, meant to replace the An-24 and An-26, can operate only from paved airfields, and the use of unsuitable propeller materials carries a risk that the propellers could fail.

As measles, hantavirus and cyclospora spread, experts say lost staff and expertise are slowing the response

A series of health challenges – hantavirus, screwworm, Ebola, cyclospora, measles, whooping cough, bird flu – are exposing the widening gaps in America’s ability to prevent, identify and halt infectious disease outbreaks.

The rapid dismantling of the US public health system at all levels means the US is in worse shape than it was before the Covid pandemic, former top CDC officials say.

Belarus has spent 2026 repairing and upgrading its civil-defense shelters nationwide, the Belarusian opposition project Belpol reported. The investigators frame the drive as another stage of the regime's militarization, tied to its alignment with Russia. They caution, though, that shelter work alone is no proof of preparing for war.

Inspections, fines, and a jump in "unfit" shelters

Belpol shared scans of the underlying documents. For example, Mahilyow Oblast had 276 civil-defense structures as of 2 June. Officials deemed 204 ready, 72 unsatisfactory, and earmarked 38 for restoration and 34 for write-off.

February–April checks produced 66 orders to fix violations and held 11 officials liable. Belpol says the rise in shelters marked unfit most likely reflects a more thorough audit, not shelters decaying in a few months.

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The work spans the whole country

The regional report is only part of the picture. Belpol points to state procurement orders for the same work across Belarus. The state telecom Beltelecom ordered design work to modernize a civil-defense space in Minsk. The National Bank of Belarus is reconstructing protective rooms in its headquarters on Independence Avenue. Brest is upgrading a bomb shelter inside a wastewater treatment complex, while Mahilyow repairs a shelter at the Strommashina plant and inspects others, including the Stroygaz enterprise. The tenders reach government offices, telecoms, industry, utilities, and banks — a centralized program, Belpol says, not scattered repairs.

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Why this fits a pattern

Belpol is careful: modernizing shelters is not by itself evidence of war planning, and many states do it for resilience. Yet since 2022, Minsk has deepened military ties with Russia, hosted joint exercises, militarized its economy, expanded territorial-defense units, and tightened its mobilization system.

Previously, France's Emmanuel Macron warned Alyaksandr Lukashenka against being dragged into the war in a May call, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy has demanded that Minsk dismantle the Russian relay stations on its soil used to guide attack drones.

Latvia's frontier with Belarus has not gone a single day without an attempted illegal crossing since late March, according to Radio Svaboda, RFE/RL's Belarusian service. The country's border service ties the sustained pressure to a state-run hybrid campaign, and its chief has named Latvia's support for Ukraine among the reasons the country has become the primary target.

An unbroken run since March

Latvia's State Border Guard has logged migrant crossing attempts from Belarus for 111 consecutive days, a Pozirk analysis of the agency's operational data found. Radio Svaboda reported the tally on 15 July.

Between 25 March and 13 July, officers recorded 7,791 attempts — an average of 70 a day. In winter the traffic was a fraction of that. From 1 January to 24 March, a span of 83 days, the agency counted just 141 attempts, or 1.7 a day. Pozirk calculated a year-to-date total of 7,932, or about 41 daily, while Latvia's State Border Guard listed 7,933.

On 13 July, the entire EU-Belarus frontier saw 42 attempts, 41 of them on the Latvian line and one on the Polish. The day before brought 41, then 87 on 11 July and 103 on 10 July, with Latvia taking the bulk each time. Lithuania has seen no crossing activity for five days.

Across the bloc's Belarus border, neighboring states logged 9,116 attempts since January. Latvia absorbed 87% of them. Lithuania took 9.9%, or 904, and Poland 3.1%, or 280.

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Latvia exposes Belarusian military’s direct role in weaponizing migration

Riga's border chief points to its stance on Ukraine

Latvia is the number-one target in a hybrid war unleashed by the Belarusian authorities, State Border Guard head Guntis Pujāts told Delfi. The situation at the border, he said, presents serious challenges.

Pujāts said the migrant smugglers have grown more aggressive, pushing officers toward harsher detention methods and a need for wider support from the National Armed Forces. Border guards stopped roughly 7,600 people from crossing illegally this year, far more than in the same period of 2025.He said one of the causes of such pressure is Latvia's consistent support for Ukraine and its condemnation of Russian aggression. 

A campaign running since 2021

Neighboring EU states treat the flow as a hybrid attack organized by the regimes in Minsk and Moscow. Lukashenka has repeatedly said Belarusian guards will not stop migrants heading for the bloc through his country.

The crisis began in 2021, when thousands of people from Asian and African countries started crossing from Belarus into Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland in an organized way. It has continued at varying intensity since, and dozens of migrants have died along these borders.

Russia wants to start moving grain and other cargo through the Syrian naval base it leases, keeping warships at one berth and commercial shipments at the other, Reuters reported. Syrian officials describe the plan as central to Moscow's effort to hold on to Syria through trade after losing its closest Middle Eastern ally. Syria's port authority denies the project exists.

Wheat at one berth, warships at the other

Russia hopes the logistics hub at Tartus will be working by mid-July, Syrian officials said. The first cargoes, according to Ajaj, run from wheat, grain, and animal feed to vegetable and mineral oils, timber, steel, clinker, coal, rice, and sugar. Organizers are targeting about 250,000 tons of cargo a month. The opening shipment is meant to be 30,000 tons of grain.

Rus Line, a Syrian logistics firm, is developing the hub together with Russian companies that sit under the Russian-Syrian Business Council — a body run by Russia's Industry and Trade Ministry. The council announced an "assembly and distribution center for Russian goods" at the port on 6 June.

Pier No. 4 is where the cargo will be handled, Rus Line chief executive Jinan Mubadda said. The company's general manager, Ossama Ajaj, called that pier a "restricted zone" of the naval base, and said the site stays under Syrian command: nothing moves without a green light from Syria's General Authority for Ports and Customs. Ajaj also suggested Russia would keep a "reduced military presence."

Explore further

Russia maintains military presence in post-Assad Syria – but Damascus now holds leverage

The port authority rejected the account after publication. Spokesman Mazen Alloush called reports of a Russian commercial hub at Tartus "entirely false" and said any deal over Syrian ports or border crossings would go public only via official state channels.

The plan builds a regular shipping line between Novorossiysk—Russia's port on the northeastern Black Sea coast—and Tartus, with goods distributed onward across Syria and its neighbors. Iraq and Jordan come first on Ajaj's list of destinations, with the Gulf — Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain — next in line.

What Moscow already holds in Syria

The hub would extend an economic grip that survived the collapse of Russia's military position. Russia and Russian-occupied Crimea supply 85% of the wheat Syria imports — 2.9 million tons this 2025-26 season, according to a Syrian customs document. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service has documented that shipments of grain grown on occupied Ukrainian land resumed to Syria in 2025.

Syrian reliance on Russian crude has grown since Assad's fall. The country took about 16.8 million barrels of Russian oil in 2025 and roughly 60,000 barrels a day in early 2026.

Explore further

Post-Assad Syria still dependent on Russian oil despite shift to the West – Reuters

After Assad fell in 2024, Moscow lost its main Middle Eastern ally, and its Syrian leases became uncertain. In 2025, Syria canceled Stroytransgaz's 49-year contract to develop commercial facilities at Tartus — the very business Russia is now trying to restart.

Russian military flights returned to the Hmeimim airbase in late October 2025. Moscow and Damascus are still negotiating the fate of both installations. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed in June that the sides were discussing a possible "reformatting" of Russia's military facilities.

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) on July 7 published what it claimed was a Russian army order to increase its military presence at a base in Armenia, two days after HUR's warning of such a move was denied by Yerevan.

HUR first made the claim on July 5, saying Russia was increasing its forces at the Gyumri base to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and "destabilize the global security situation."

Armenia's Foreign Ministry denied the claim on the same day.

In a post on social media on July 7, HUR published a document which it said was a "order from the commander of the troops of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces on the 'replenishment' of the Russian military base in Armenia."

"The telegram lists a list of measures for the urgent “replenishment” of the units of the Russian unit by selecting personnel from among the servicemen of the 8th, 18th, 49th and 58th combined arms armies of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces," HUR said.

The news comes amid a major deterioration in Russian-Azerbaijani relations after a deadly June 27 operation in Russia's Yekaterinburg, where Russian security forces killed two Azerbaijani nationals and injured several others in a raid linked to a 2001 murder case.

Armenia has had a historically close relationship with Russia but the relations between Yerevan and Moscow have recently deteriorated.

Russia's leverage over both Baku and Yerevan has diminished dramatically since Azerbaijani troops captured Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-controlled region in Azerbaijan, in 2023.

Russian peacekeepers later withdraw from the region, and now Baku and Yerevan are negotiating a permanent peace deal.

Armenia, which has lambasted Moscow for failing to help it during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is drifting closer to the West.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has suspended the country's membership in a Russian-led military alliance and announced plans to join the European Union. Recently there has also been a crackdown on the pro-Russian opposition in Armenia.

Arrests, raids, beaten and bloodied suspects — how Russia-Azerbaijan relations have unravelled

Deaths in custody, media offices raided, and beaten and bloodied suspects paraded in court — relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, once considered close, have sharply deteriorated in recent days amid a series of high-profile incidents. The latest tensions erupted over the weekend when Russian law enforcement officers detained over 50 Azerbaijani

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Russian state-funded propaganda media outlet Sputnik will cease operations in Azerbaijan, Russia Today media group CEO Dmitry Kiselyov said on July 3, according to the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

"We regret to say that, as of today, the conditions for Sputnik Azerbaijan to continue its activities in this country are not in place," Kiselyov said.

The move comes amid a major deterioration in Russian-Azerbaijani relations.

Kiselyov's comments followed the detention of several Sputnik Azerbaijan employees by Azerbaijani police on June 30. Authorities said two of the detainees were operatives of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), prompting a formal protest from Moscow.

Kiselyov called the charges "far-fetched," saying the staff had worked to "develop cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia." He added that legal action would be taken to defend them.

Sputnik, a key pillar of the Kremlin's global propaganda network, has long been accused by Western governments and media watchdogs of spreading disinformation and pro-Russian narratives.

These developments follow a deadly June 27 operation in Russia's Yekaterinburg, where Russian security forces killed two Azerbaijani nationals and injured several others in a raid linked to a 2001 murder case.

On June 28, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry issued a rare public rebuke, calling the operation "ethnically motivated" and part of a "systematic pattern" of unlawful treatment of Azerbaijani nationals in Russia.

The diplomatic rupture deepened further after Azerbaijani authorities arrested eight Russian citizens the next day, presenting them in court handcuffed and visibly injured. They were accused of participating in organized crime, cyberattacks, and drug smuggling from Iran.

The closure of Sputnik's bureau marks a new low in relations between the two former Soviet states, which have seen escalating tensions despite longstanding ties.

Arrests, raids, beaten and bloodied suspects — how Russia-Azerbaijan relations have unravelled

Deaths in custody, media offices raided, and beaten and bloodied suspects paraded in court — relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, once considered close, have sharply deteriorated in recent days amid a series of high-profile incidents. The latest tensions erupted over the weekend when Russian law enforcement officers detained over 50 Azerbaijani

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg denied on July 1 that he agreed to "work on" halting Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia, contradicting Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko's claim.

Speaking at a state event on Belarus's Independence Day, Lukashenko said he relayed Russian President Vladimir Putin's position to Kellogg during their June 21 meeting in Minsk.

According to Lukashenko, the Russian president is willing to consider a ceasefire in Ukraine if Ukrainian forces stop conducting drone strikes on Russian territory.

"I conveyed this position to the Americans," Lukashenko said on July 1. "We will work on it, said (the U.S. special envoy), in this direction."

Kellogg pushed back on the claim, writing on X that the quote was "taken out of context" and misrepresented the substance of their talks.

"At no point did I make comments related to Ukraine's prosecution of the war outside of a total ceasefire," he said. "In my conversation with Lukashenko, we discussed a full and unconditional ceasefire."

The June meeting between Kellogg and Lukashenko marked the highest-level U.S. visit to Belarus since former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's 2020 trip. Belarusian state media widely portrayed Kellogg's visit as a sign of thawing relations.

Shortly after the talks, Belarus released opposition leader and political prisoner Siarhei Tsikhanouski, who had been jailed since the 2020 presidential election.

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994 and remains a key ally of the Kremlin. His regime has allowed Russian troops and equipment to use Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Military aid delays will ‘encourage Russia to continue war,’ Ukraine tells US envoy

Ukraine warned that “any delay or hesitation in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities will only encourage Russia to continue war and terror, rather than pursue peace.”

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Armenian authorities should "seriously" consider banning the broadcast of Russian television channels in Armenia, Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan said on July 1, citing concerns over interference and deteriorating ties.

"We must very seriously discuss the suspension of the Russian television channel broadcast in the territory of Armenia," Simonyan told reporters, according to Armenpress. He criticized recent content aired by Russian state broadcasters, which the Armenian government has denounced as harmful to bilateral ties.

The remarks come as Armenia continues to pivot away from Moscow's sphere of influence and seeks to bolster ties with the West.

Simonyan suggested that individuals connected to Armenian-Russian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan may be financing efforts to meddle in Armenia's internal matters.

"If there are channels that allow themselves to interfere in Armenia’s domestic affairs, perhaps we ought to respond likewise, by at least banning their entry into the homes of our society," he said.

Tensions between Armenia and Russia have mounted since Moscow's failure to intervene during Azerbaijan's military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, which resulted in the mass displacement of ethnic Armenians.

In April, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed a law initiating the country's formal accession process to the European Union.

Though symbolic, the legislation marks a significant political shift, embedding European integration into Armenian law. The bill, passed by parliament in March, was backed by 64 lawmakers and opposed by seven.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said that EU membership would require a referendum, while the Kremlin warned that joining both the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is "simply impossible." The EAEU, established in 2015, includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan.

Why Norway is investing billions in Ukraine’s victory

The Kyiv Independent’s Oleksiy Sorokin sat down with Eivind Vad Petersson, state secretary to the Norwegian foreign minister and co-chair of the joint Norwegian-Ukrainian Working Group on Nuclear Safety and Security.

The Kyiv IndependentOleksiy Sorokin

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced on July 1 that the Russian-made Oreshnik missile system will be deployed in Belarus by the end of 2025. Speaking at a ceremony marking Independence Day, Lukashenko said the decision was made in coordination with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Volgograd.

"The first Oreshnik positions will be in Belarus. You’ve seen how Oreshnik works: the same missiles, the same strikes — but without nuclear warheads, without radioactive contamination of the land and air. This weapon will be stationed in Belarus by the end of the year," Lukashenko said.

Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994 and claimed victory in a seventh consecutive presidential election in January, argued that hosting such weaponry would not make Belarus a target, adding that such concerns are being "imposed from outside." He claimed that countries possessing nuclear weapons have historically avoided military aggression and said the presence of such systems in Belarus is intended solely as a deterrent.

He also said he had delivered a warning to U.S. officials, stating that while nuclear weapons in Belarus are securely stored in accordance with international standards, any unauthorized incursion into Belarusian territory would trigger a "swift and forceful response."

The Belarusian leader emphasized that any use of the Oreshnik system would not involve nuclear warheads and that maintaining modern military capabilities is critical for national defense.

Russia first launched the experimental Oreshnik missile during a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Nov. 21. Putin claimed the attack was in retaliation for Ukraine's use of U.S. and British long-range missiles against Russian territory.

Although little is publicly known about the missile, defense experts believe Oreshnik is not a wholly new development but likely an upgraded version of Russia’s RS-26 missile, also known as the Rubezh, which was first produced in 2011.

Lukashenko reportedly thanked Moscow for supporting the deployment of advanced weapons systems to Belarus and said the introduction of Oreshnik would serve as a tool for domestic stability. "I’m confident that even those of our supporters who don’t yet understand this will come to realize it — without a war. That’s why Oreshnik will be on Belarusian soil. To prevent uprisings," he said.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km from border, SBU source says

Key developments on July 1: * ‘With surgical precision’ — Ukrainian drones strike Russian plant 1,300km away, SBU source says * Russian missile strike on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast kills brigade commander, injures 30 people, Zelensky says * Ukrainian forces hit Russian command post in occupied Donetsk Oblast, General Staff says * Zelensky signs ratification of

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a Belarusian oppositionist recently released from prison, thanked the U.S. on June 22 for brokering his release and appealed to President Donald Trump to help free other political prisoners in Belarus.

"President Trump now has the power and opportunity to free all political prisoners in Belarus with a single word. And I ask him to do so, to say that word," Tsikhanouski said in Vilnius during his first press conference after the release.

Tsikhanouski, a popular blogger who planned to challenge Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, was arrested shortly before the vote and later sentenced to 18 years in prison on politically motivated charges.

The opposition leader and at least 13 other detainees were released from Belarusian prisons on June 21 after Lukashenko met U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, in Minsk.

Speaking at the press conference alongside his wife and opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Tsikhanouski affirmed that both of them "will continue to support Ukraine and call all of the perpetrators accountable."

Tsikhanouski confirmed that he used to do business both in Ukraine and in Russia but refuted allegations of pro-Russian sympathies, affirming his support for Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"I believe Crimea is Ukrainian. Zelensky has the hardest fate and a heavy load that no other president has. Zelensky is my hero," Tsikhanouski said.

He also said that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remains the leader of the Belarusian opposition, and he will not challenge that.

Tsikhanouskaya stepped in as the opposition candidate in 2020 after her husband's arrest, but was forced into exile after Lukashenko declared victory in what was broadly seen as massive election fraud.

"Do you think that anybody who serves in prison automatically becomes a leader? We have 1,200 such leaders," Tsikhanouski added, referring to the number of political prisoners who remain in prison under Lukashenko's regime.

"Belarus can't be free until the Putin regime collapses. If it wasn't for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, we would not be sitting here; it would have been over (after the Belarus' popular protests against Lukashenko) in 2020-2021," Tsikhanouski said.

Lukashenko, in power since 1994, is a close ally of Putin and has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory for military operations against Ukraine.

The Belarusian dictator has maintained a tight grip over his country by electoral fraud, surveillance, and brutal crackdown on free press, civil society, and political opposition, prompting Western countries to impose sanctions on Belarus.

Russia ‘afraid to admit’ scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers’ bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says

Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Editor's note: This item has been expanded with additional details.

Belarusian opposition leader and political prisoner Siarhei Tsikhanouski was released on June 21, shortly after dictator Alexander Lukashenko met in Minsk with U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

Tsikhanouski , a popular blogger who planned to challenge Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, was arrested shortly before the vote and later sentenced to 18 years in prison on politically motivated charges. Amnesty International recognized Tsikhanouski as a prisoner of conscience.

His wife, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, stepped in and became the main opposition candidate against Lukashenko.

At least 13 political detainees, including prominent blogger Ihar Losik, were also released on June 21, Belarusian independent outlet Nasha Niva reported.

The other released prisoners include three Polish citizens, two Latvian citizens, one Estonian citizen, a Swedish citizen, a U.S. citizen, and two Japanese citizens, according to Lukashenko's press secretary.

In a post on social media, Tsikhanouskaya welcomed the news but highlighted that "1,150 political prisoners remain behind bars."

Kellogg's deputy, John Coale, said the released political prisoners had been transferred to Vilnius and expressed gratitude to the Lithuanian government for facilitating their relocation.

"President Trump's strong leadership led to the release of 14 prisoners from Belarus today. Thanks to the Lithuanian government for its cooperation and assistance — they remain a true friend and ally," Coale wrote on X.

According to official results of the 2020 election, Lukashenko won with 80% of the vote, while Tsikhanouskaya received just 10%. Evidence indicates that the election was heavily rigged, and Tsikhanouskaya could have realistically won the vote.

As a result, hundreds of thousands took to the streets in Belarus in 2020 to demand a fair election. Thousands were arrested, and many were beaten and tortured. At least seven demonstrators were killed during the protests.

Minsk has faced repeated Western sanctions since the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests.

Lukashenko, in power since 1994, is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory for military operations against Ukraine.

"You have caused quite a stir in the world with your arrival," Lukashenko told Kellogg during their meeting at the Palace of Independence, according to state-run outlet Belta.

"But I wonder why. Can't we have a normal dialogue and talk about our affairs – about relations between Belarus and the United States of America?"

Kellogg is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Belarus in recent years, following former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's 2020 trip under Trump's first term.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenko's regime has played a key logistical role in supporting Moscow's campaign, offering its territory for troop deployments and weapons stockpiles.

Russia ‘afraid to admit’ scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers’ bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says

Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Latvia's parliament adopted a bill on June 19 that prohibits citizens of Russia and Belarus from purchasing real estate in the country, Latvian media reported.

The bill — which carves out exceptions for EU and Latvian permanent residence holders, Belarusian refugees, and repatriates — establishes the new restrictions under the pretenses of protecting the country's national security.

In addition to citizens, the bill prohibits entities that are at least 25% owned by Russian or Belarusian nationals from purchasing property.

"This is a step to limit the influence and presence in Latvia of persons and companies that are adverse to the country,” said Agnese Krasta, an Estonian member of parliament and one of the authors of the initiative.

Latvia, which borders both Russia and Estonia, is widely viewed as one of the most likely targets for a future Russian attack on NATO or the European Union. As the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, Latvia has taken action to increase civil preparedness measures and has drafted plans to relocate a quarter of its population in the case of war.

EU intelligence and security agencies have warned of mounting Russian sabotage operations, including several arson attacks believed to have been coordinated by Moscow.

Latvia joins Finland in imposing a ban on Russians from buying, as Baltic and Nordic countries continue to impose restrictions on Russia over its aggression in the region.

In September 2022, Latvia imposed entry restrictions on Russian citizens as part of a joint agreement with Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Latvia has been one of Ukraine's most vocal backers.

The Baltic state ranks among Europe's top defense spenders, allocating over 3% of GDP to defense in 2025, according to NATO estimates.

Diplomacy in crisis: G7 letdowns reveal limits to Western solidarity on Ukraine

KANANASKIS, Canada — The Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit ended on June 17 with no joint statement in support of Ukraine, no commitments to provide desperately needed U.S. weapons, and no meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. The Ukrainian delegation headed into the summit,

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg will meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in the coming days, Reuters reported on June 17, citing four sources familiar with the matter.

Kellogg will meet Lukashenko in a visit to Belarus as peace talks to bring an end to Russia's war against Ukraine remain inconclusive, Reuters reported.

In February, U.S. Deputy Assistant State Secretary Christopher W. Smith visited Belarus alongside two other U.S. officials to conduct a prisoner swap in a similar unannounced visit.

Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has been accused of staging fraudulent elections in Belarus. The leader declared a seventh consecutive presidential election victory in January.

Kellogg has given the impression that the meeting could help reinitiate largely unsuccessful peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, two sources told Reuters.

Lukashenko is seen as a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin as Russia faces isolation in response to its full-scale war against Ukraine.

The White House has discussed ways to weaken Russia's influence on Minsk and bring Belarus closer to the United States, one of the sources said.

On Feb. 12, Smith drove to Belarus from Lithuania following a phone call with Lukashenko. The small U.S. delegation visited a border town where three political prisoners were transferred, including one U.S. citizen and two Belarusian citizens, the New York Times reported.

Lukashenko assured he was ready to decrease repression in Belarus, Smith said, adding that the U.S. wants Belarus to be less reliant on Russia.

Belarus has faced Western sanctions following a presidential election in 2020 that international observers condemned as fraudulent. The sham election garnered mass protests that rejected the results.

Minsk refused to invite a mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the country's Jan. 26 presidential election.

Belarus further isolated itself from the West as it supports Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine.

‘He said he wasn’t going anywhere’ — Survivors search for missing following Russia’s deadliest attack on Kyiv this year

Sitting a few meters from the rubble of what used to be a nondescript nine-story residential building in Kyiv, Lilia rises to her feet every time another pile of debris is cleared from the site targeted by Russia during a mass overnight attack on June 17. “We are waiting (as

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

An uninsured Russian Aframax-class tanker has been illegally conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in international waters near Greece and Cyprus since July 2024, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on June 16.

According to the agency, the vessel, operating without Western insurance, is part of Russia's expanding shadow fleet used to bypass G7 and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports.

HUR said such transfers "pose an environmental threat, allow the aggressor to conceal the origin of oil, evade international control, and ensure its supply to third countries in circumvention of sanctions."

Ukraine has identified the tanker as IMO 9247443 and listed it on the War&Sanctions platform, along with 159 other tankers allegedly belonging to Russia's shadow fleet and 55 captains involved in sanction-busting operations.

Despite price caps and Western restrictions, Russia continues to profit from oil and gas exports, which remain a vital revenue source. According to HUR estimates, roughly one-third of those profits are expected to fund Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025.

In May, the EU approved its 17th sanctions package, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet vessels. The U.S. Treasury had earlier sanctioned over 180 tankers, which together accounted for nearly half of Russia's offshore oil shipments.

While the Biden administration ramped up pressure on Russia's oil trade early in 2024, U.S. President Donald Trump has since declined to impose new sanctions, despite Moscow's continued refusal to agree to a ceasefire.

EU leaders call for tougher sanctions on Russia at G7 summit

“To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Kyiv IndependentAbbey Fenbert

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Europe must begin preparing for a gradual reduction in U.S. military support for both the continent and Ukraine, Tagesschau reported on June 13.

"Yes, that's right. That would be so, and we have to deal with that," Pistorius told journalists in response to a question about the U.S. potentially scaling down its support. He noted that the discussions focus on a reduction in U.S. backing rather than a full halt.

The comments come after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Washington would reduce the assistance allocated to Ukraine in the next year's federal budget.

"We now have to look at how much support drops and whether Europeans can compensate for it," Pistorius added.

While the U.S. has been Ukraine's leading military backer under former President Joe Biden, the Trump administration has yet to approve any aid packages and has become increasingly disengaged from peace talks.

Pistorius's comments come amid increasing uncertainty in transatlantic relations. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker confirmed on May 16 that the United States plans to begin discussions with European allies later this year about reducing its military presence on the continent.

Speaking at a security conference in Estonia, Whitaker said the talks would begin after the NATO summit in The Hague in June.

"Nothing has been determined," Whitaker said, according to Reuters. "But as soon as we do, we are going to have these conversations in the structure of NATO."

Whitaker emphasized that any drawdown would be closely coordinated to avoid creating security gaps. Still, he reiterated U.S. President Donald Trump's position that long-standing U.S. efforts to reduce its European military footprint must now be implemented.

"This is going to be orderly, but we are not going to have any more patience for foot-dragging in this situation," he said.

In February, Hegseth reportedly told NATO allies that "stark strategic realities" prevent the United States from being primarily focused on Europe's security. Leaks reported by the Atlantic in March revealed that both Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance privately criticized European defense spending, with Hegseth allegedly expressing his "loathing of European free-loading."

Trump called on NATO member states to increase defense spending up to 5% of GDP. Ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that member states will have agreed to a new goal of increasing defense spending.

"We are headed for a summit in six weeks in which virtually every member of NATO will be at or above 2%, but more importantly, many of them will be over 4%, and all will have agreed on a goal of reaching 5% over the next decade," Rubio told Fox News on May 15.

Such a move would mark a historic shift, with NATO partners collectively accounting for more than half of the alliance's military capacity, according to Rubio.

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, NATO members have significantly increased their defense spending, with countries like Poland and the Baltic nations aiming to reach the 5% target in the coming years.

Ukraine bracing for ‘painful’ reduction in US military aid after Hegseth announces cuts

Editor’s note: For security reasons, the real names of the soldiers mentioned in this story have not been used. A reduction in U.S. military aid to Ukraine would be “painful” and could have potentially “dire consequences” for the global order, Ukrainian lawmakers and soldiers have told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include Germany's announcement to supply Ukraine with $2.2 billion in additional military aid.

Germany will deliver new IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine under a three-year supply plan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a joint press conference with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who added Berlin has no plans to provide Taurus long-range missiles.

The announcement comes amid escalating Russian aerial assaults, including a June 10 missile and drone strike on Kyiv, one of the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion.

"We are grateful for the supply of IRIS-T air defense systems," Zelensky said on June 12. "We understand that deliveries are currently being planned... for the next three years. This is very important assistance."

The IRIS-T is a German-made medium-range surface-to-air missile system capable of intercepting drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles.

Pistorius confirmed the delivery timeline but firmly ruled out the possibility of sending Taurus missiles — weapons Kyiv has repeatedly requested to strike deep into Russian territory.

"You asked me whether we are considering this, and my answer is no," Pistorius said.

Before taking office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signaled openness to lifting former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ban on the missiles. That stance has not yet resulted in a policy shift.

Ukraine has already received long-range missiles — including ATACMS from the U.S. and Storm Shadow and SCALP from the U.K. and France. Initially restricted to use within Ukrainian territory, Western allies only began easing those limitations in late 2024.

Germany is Ukraine's largest military donor in Europe. Pistorius said that Berlin will provide 9 billion euros ($10.4 billion) in aid this year, with investments in defense production being considered. The total includes an additional commitment in military aid worth 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion).

"Today, we discussed that this aid will continue," he said. "We agreed on additional investments in production... both in Ukraine and in Germany."

Zelensky visited Berlin on May 28 for talks with Merz, part of an ongoing effort to bolster Ukraine's defense industry amid uncertainty over U.S. support under President Donald Trump.

Why can’t the West match Russia’s ammunition production?

The West is failing to catch up to Russia’s production of the most basic unit of war for the past half-millennium — gunpowder. The modern propellants and explosives that power war have largely been offshored. While Western manufacturers are churning out shell casings, they are short on the materials to fill

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

The Council of the EU on June 12 approved fresh tariffs on fertilizers and remaining agricultural goods from Russia and Belarus, aiming to reduce Russian export revenues.

The measures target those goods that have not yet been subject to additional customs duties and will enter into force on July 1. The tariffs on fertilizers will increase gradually over the next three years.

The step comes as the EU readies additional sanctions against Russia as it continues to wage its all-out war against Ukraine.

"Polish Presidency motto is 'Security, Europe!' and these measures increase our economic security by reducing dependencies from Russia," said Michal Baranowski, the trade undersecretary at the Polish Economy Ministry.

"We are further reducing Russia’s export revenues and therefore its ability to finance its brutal war. This is united Europe at its best," he said in a statement.

The new tariffs will apply to goods that made up around 15% of all agricultural imports from Russia in 2023. Fertilizer tariffs will focus on certain nitrogen-based products, the Council said in a statement.

Russian fertilizers accounted for more than a quarter of all of the EU's imports in this sector in 2023, worth almost $1.5 billion.

Apart from stifling Russia's trade revenue, the step also aims to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian and Belarusian goods, protect European farmers, and diversify the supply.

The EU adopted higher tariffs on cereals, oilseeds, and some other products from Russia and Belarus in May 2024. Earlier this year, the European Commission proposed imposing similar measures on all remaining agricultural products from the two countries.

Putin’s suspected daughter found working in anti-war galleries in Paris

Nastya Rodionova, a Russian writer and artist who has been based in Paris since 2022, had only met gallery manager Luiza Rozova in passing at events before she learned who the 22-year-old’s parents were. Described by a number of people as a “very nice and well-mannered girl,” Rozova is

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

Il n’a jamais été simple de parler du Bélarus en France sans tomber dans le cliché. La formulation « dernière dictature d’Europe » a encore été reprise par les médias aujourd’hui pour évoquer le scrutin présidentiel qui s’est tenu dimanche, et j’en veux un peu aux journalistes pour cette paresse intellectuelle.
« Dernière dictature d’Europe » était une formule confortable pour se rassurer sur le processus de démocratisation qui aurait été en voie de généralisation sur le continent européen; certes, à des vitesses variables, mais quand-même quasiment certain. Le Bélarus faisait alors office d’épouvantail et de dernier bastion d’un monde en cours de disparition. Cela empêchait de voir les dynamiques réelles sur place (et de s’interroger par exemple sur la manière dont la stabilité, les politiques sociales et le progrès économique pouvaient atrophier la sensibilité politique). Cela faisait aussi du bien à l’égo européen.
Nous n’en sommes plus là aujourd’hui, bien évidemment, et dans un contexte de montée d’attractivité des autoritarismes, le Belarus est plutôt un cas d’école qui devrait attirer notre attention. Dire que l’élection présidentielle qui vient de s’écouler était un simulacre, c’est à la fois vrai et stérile, parce que c’est une manière de dire « point, à la ligne, on passe à autre chose » qui neutralise toute volonté de compréhension.
Malheureusement, la guerre conduite par la Russie contre l’Ukraine m’a empêché d’être suffisamment vigilante sur le Bélarus pour livrer une analyse approfondie. Ce que je dis est à prendre avec des pincettes; ce sont des pistes à creuser.
Un régime politique autoritaire fonctionne grâce à un certain dosage de coercition et d’adhésion; il doit non seulement mettre en place une répression suffisamment forte pour bloquer les oppositions, mais aussi distribuer suffisamment de bénéfices pour susciter l’adhésion. Plus le ratio est en faveur des bénéfices, plus le pouvoir est stable; plus il penche du côté répressif, plus le régime est fragile. Pendant longtemps, le régime politique du Belarus s’est attaché à distribuer beaucoup de bénéfices à la population, notamment à travers des politiques sociales, des politiques de développement et une promesse de stabilité et de prévisibilité. Les Bélarusses vivaient – économiquement – plutôt mieux que beaucoup de leurs voisins, et en avaient conscience. Le prix politique à payer apparaissait donc comme acceptable.
Evidemment, le soutien de la Russie était et reste l’exosquelette du régime bélarusse, aussi bien d’un point de vue politique qu’économique.
Les protestations massives de 2020 étaient intervenues dans le contexte d’une certaine fragilisation du modèle, et notamment d’une perception du régime comme moins protecteur, mais aussi en décalage avec les demandes de la société. Les répressions violentes qui ont suivi et qui se sont maintenues tout au long des années suivantes ont fait basculer le ratio répression/bénéfices en faveur de la répression. Cette période violente va compter dans l’histoire politique bélarusse: on ne le perçoit pas encore, mais elle a donné naissance à une expérience différente, moins marginale de l’opposition politique, de la répression et de la prison. Elle a aussi permis de structurer une opposition à l’étranger et de lui donner des canaux de prise de parole. Derrière les apparences de « il ne se passe rien », le Belarus est en réalité bien plus prêt qu’en 2020 à entamer une transition politique, avec une nouvelle génération de citoyens jetés avec violence dans la politique.
Cependant, et paradoxalement, c’est la guerre en Ukraine qui a redonné de la stabilité au régime bélarusse. En effet, dans un contexte où la Russie essaie de toutes ses forces de faire du Bélarus un cobelligérant, il y a des choses que Loukachenko a réussi à protéger. Certes, des unités armées russes et des complexes d’armement sont désormais basés au Belarus, qui sert de base aux attaques contre l’Ukraine. Cependant, aucune unité armée bélarusse ne combat aux côtés de la Russie contre l’Ukraine. Pensez au paradoxe: des soldats nord-coréens, mais pas de soldats bélarusses, alors que le pays se déclare être le plus proche allié de la Russie. Le territoire du Bélarus reste un territoire en paix. Cela, les citoyens savent qu’ils le doivent en partie à Loukachenko… mais aussi en partie aux Ukrainiens qui ne désespèrent pas de retourner les Bélarusses contre Moscou, et qui ne les perçoivent pas de la même manière que les Russes.
La politique menée par Loukachenko vis-à-vis de la Russie a été caractérisée par un de mes anciens collègues bélarusses par la formule suivante: « on dit oui à tout, puis on bureaucratise au maximum le processus pour finalement ne rien faire ». C’est aussi une stratégie que les Bélarusses appliquent au quotidien vis-à-vis de leur Etat. Il y a une certaine résilience stratégique de la société bélarusse qu’on ferait bien de souligner. Ne nous laissons pas tromper par cette apparence de calme plat: le Bélarus n’est pas la Russie et suivra une dynamique qui lui sera propre.