The Kremlin is using the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) to shape both internal and external narratives as Russia’s war effort continues, according to a report published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 18 June. Russian outlet Meduza reported it obtained an internal document from the Russian Presidential Administration detailing how state and pro-Kremlin media should cover SPIEF events from 18 to 21 June.

Rather than highlighting foreign investment or international participation, the document instructs media to focus on domestic feel-good events. These include the launch of a civilian car, flag-raising ceremonies for fishing boats, and new gas connections for a village and factory in Tambov Oblast.

The Kremlin also emphasized promoting events run by organizations closely tied to the Presidential Administration, such as the Znanie (Knowledge) Society and the “Russia–Land of Opportunities” foundation, which places military veterans into public roles.

The same directive encouraged coverage of book presentations on themes like war, economics, and disinformation. A political strategist with experience working for the Presidential Administration told Meduza that the Kremlin seeks to project an “appearance that everything is moving forward.”

Internet disruptions around the “economic forum”

Opposition media reported internet outages began overnight on 17 to 18 June in and around St. Petersburg, coinciding with the start of SPIEF. While no official explanation was provided, ISW noted that Russian authorities previously shut down mobile internet in wide areas during Russia’s Victory Day on 9 May. That disruption was officially for “security,” but likely aimed at suppressing coverage of Ukrainian attacks that could undermine the image of Russian military success. 

“Russian authorities may be employing similar measures during SPIEF as part of efforts to forward the Kremlin’s social optimism messaging,” ISW wrote.

 

Today, there are interesting updates from NATO’s northern flank. Here, Russia has started rapidly escalating the tensions by building up forces and constructing new bases on the border with Finland. The Scandinavian country has been attacked by Russia before, so the Finns did not wait and immediately began preparing for the worst-case scenario.

Russia has begun a notable militarization of its extensive border with Finland, significantly escalating its military presence through the construction of new bases and the redeployment of forces. Recent satellite imagery, confirmed by NATO officials, reveals extensive activity, including rows of newly erected tents, warehouses for military vehicles, refurbished fighter jet shelters, and revitalization of a previously abandoned helicopter base.

These developments indicate the preliminary stages of a substantial, long-term military buildup, although NATO and Finnish officials emphasize this is still different from Russia’s pre-Ukraine attack deployments in 2022. The reason for this is that Russia remains predominantly occupied with its military operations in Ukraine, limiting immediate troop availability.

Border turns hot

The catalyst for Russia’s border militarization was Finland’s accession to NATO two years ago. Initially, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly stated that Finland’s NATO membership was Finland’s sovereign right, and he had no problem with it. Yet, Russia quickly shifted its posture, rapidly militarizing the border area, which has now become NATO’s longest contiguous boundary with Russia, spanning approximately 1,330 kilometers.

Russia’s actions reveal underlying apprehensions; historically, new NATO membership, particularly involving former Soviet states such as the Baltic republics, has been perceived by Moscow as provocative, significantly heightening security concerns. Consequently, the addition of Finland to NATO is interpreted by Russia as an increased threat, necessitating enhanced defenses.

Military analyst Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment predict that Russia will significantly expand its ground forces facing NATO, particularly in sensitive regions such as Finland’s northern frontier.

Arctic in play

Russia’s buildup is also strongly tied to strategic interests in the Arctic. Moscow regards control over Arctic regions as essential for securing its status as a great power. Satellite imagery recently confirmed Russian military helicopters returning to Murmansk, a strategic Arctic port city, after a two-decade absence.

This redeployment, partially driven by Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian airfields deeper within the country, places Russian forces considerably closer to NATO territory. According to Finnish defense analysts, Russia is also expanding brigades into divisions, implying an imminent surge in Russian troop strength along the border.

Bases reinforced

Russia has upgraded several military bases near Finland to enhance its defense capabilities. Key bases include Alakurtti Air Base, which supports cold-weather operations and Arctic defense, and Petrozavodsk, which offers armored vehicle storage and troop mobilization. Severomorsk-2 strengthens Arctic naval and air operations, while Olenya Air Base facilitates strategic bomber activity and large-scale operations, less than 150 kilometers from Finland, with significant infrastructure improvements indicating plans for an even larger military presence.

These upgrades provide Russia with rapid deployment capacity and enhanced surveillance, strengthening its position in a potential clash. These provocative developments follow a series of incidents underscoring rising tensions. From damaging undersea cables to satellite imagery exposing substantial Russian military expansion near Finland, this has prompted Helsinki’s military intelligence head, Brigadier General Pekka Turunen, to predict that Russian troop numbers near Finland could triple within five years.

Finland digs in

Consequently, Finland extended its indefinite border closure with Russia, citing the ongoing hybrid warfare tactics, including weaponized migration, similar to what Poland is experiencing on its border with Belarus.

Further intensifying tensions, in May and June 2025, Russia redeployed battle-hardened troops from Ukraine and intelligence specialists to the Finnish border, significantly bolstering strategic bases and violating Finnish airspace, prompting a diplomatic confrontation.

History drives Finland

Facing this steadily rising threat, Finland is actively enhancing its defensive posture by emphasizing a pragmatic approach and preparing for worst-case scenarios, by increasing defense spending and raising reservist eligibility to age 65. Finnish military planners forecast that once active hostilities in Ukraine diminish, Russia will substantially increase deployments along Finland’s border, prompting predictions of a possible armed confrontation soon after.

Overall, Finland’s defensive measures originate from a historical memory deeply shaped by past aggression from Russia, notably during the Winter War of 1939 to 1940, resulting in substantial territorial losses. The recent rapid militarization by Russia reaffirms Finland’s decision to swiftly join NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Now, Russia is stepping up the provocations by starting to build up forces along the border, which is enough to make the Finnish government suspicious.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Ukraine and Russia conducted another prisoner exchange on 19 June, focusing on seriously ill and wounded captives, some of which were held in Russian captivity for over three years. 

The exchange returned Ukrainian defenders from multiple military branches to their homeland, including personnel from the Armed Forces, Naval Forces, Airborne Assault Forces, Territorial Defense Forces, National Guard, and State Border Service. Officials did not disclose the exact number of prisoners released.

Home

Вдома pic.twitter.com/I0QXRB6uto

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 19, 2025

According to the Coordination Staff for Treatment of Prisoners of War, all returned defenders suffered from significant health complications.

“Every Defender released today has serious medical diagnoses and illnesses as a result of injuries and being in captivity,” the coordination staff reported. “Many have significant weight loss, dystrophy, ulcers, vision problems, musculoskeletal diseases, cardiovascular diseases and digestive problems.”

The oldest released prisoner was 63 years old, while one defender celebrated his 45th birthday upon returning home, according to according to Ukraine’s human rights commissioner Dmytro Lubinets.

Since the Istanbul talks on 2 June, Ukraine has conducted multiple exchanges: 9 June saw the return of prisoners under 25 years old, 10 June brought back seriously wounded and ill personnel, 12 June returned another group of seriously wounded and ill defenders, and 14 June marked the fourth exchange within a week, including seriously ill, wounded, and young prisoners.

Every time you flip on a light switch in Europe, there’s a chance you’re funding a missile aimed at a Ukrainian kindergarten, as long as Russian gas continues to flow.

Here’s a number that should make every European’s blood run cold: €30 billion. That’s how much more money the European Union plans to send Vladimir Putin for gas over the next two and a half years while children are buried under rubble from Russian missiles.

On 17 June, the European Commission finally presented its long-awaited legal proposal to phase out fossil fuel imports from Russia. After years of war, mounting evidence of Russian atrocities, and endless declarations that “Europe stands with Ukraine,” you might expect this regulation to immediately stop the flow of euros to Moscow’s war chest.

You would be wrong.

Two-thirds of this comes from Russia’s Arctic Yamal project, where Novatek loads tankers bound for European ports while Russian forces target Ukrainian energy infrastructure with growing swarms of drones and ballistic missiles.

The €30 billion question: How did we get here?

To understand this betrayal, you need to grasp what the Commission actually proposed versus what Europe desperately needs.

The regulation does include some hard-won victories. Thanks to relentless pressure from civil society and expert analysis by the Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD) and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Article 7 introduces a breakthrough that can reshape energy markets: all gas entering the EU from third countries — especially Türkiye — will be presumed Russian unless proven otherwise.

This presumption flips the burden of proof and dismantles Gazprom’s laundering schemes. For years, Russian gas has flowed through Turkish and European intermediaries, disguising its origin through paper transactions. Under Article 7, that shell game ends.

The same transparency applies to European LNG terminals — all arriving cargoes must report their ports of initial loading, making it impossible for Novatek to obscure LNG origins through transshipments.

But here’s where the Commission’s courage collapsed: instead of wielding these new powers immediately, they handed Russia a going-away present worth tens of billions.

The timeline that breaks Ukrainian hearts

The devil lives in the implementation schedule, and this devil wears Gazprom’s and Novatek’s colors.

Spot market purchases of Russian gas and LNG — trades that could be replaced literally overnight — won’t be banned until 17 June 2026. 

Unlike long-term contracts, spot market transactions are immediate, short-term purchases that can be conducted anonymously through international hubs, allowing Russian gas and LNG to be “whitewashed” and enter European markets undetected.

Even more devastating: long-term contracts with Gazprom for pipeline gas and Novatek for maritime LNG deliveries can continue until the beginning of 2028. Nearly three more years of business-as-usual while bombs fall on Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia.

According to CSD estimates, up to 75% of current Russian gas imports operate under such long-term contracts. The Commission’s own memo estimates €15 billion per year for LNG and remaining pipeline gas imports via Türkiye — before counting additional billions from Russian crude oil if Hungary and Slovakia maintain their oil import exemptions.

The arithmetic is chilling: assuming current import rates and prices, EU member states will send more than €30 billion to Russia before this “ban” fully takes effect. That’s enough money to fund thousands of missiles, hundreds of drone swarms, or entire military divisions currently destroying Ukrainian cities.

The oil loophole that shame forgot

If the gas timeline wasn’t insulting enough, the Commission’s treatment of Russian oil reaches new lows.

Hungary and Slovakia will continue importing Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline under vague “energy security” exemptions. This despite comprehensive analysis by CREA and CSD proving that Russian oil can be easily replaced through Adriatic Sea deliveries via Italy and Croatia.

The infrastructure exists. The alternative supply routes are proven. The only thing missing is political will.

The enforcement mirage that guarantees failure

Even if this regulation worked perfectly on paper, its enforcement mechanism ensures failure in practice.

The Commission asks national customs authorities to verify gas origins, but conveniently ignores that some member states cannot or will not perform this function reliably. Without independent EU oversight through the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) or the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), this creates perfect conditions for document fraud and corruption.

The sanctions evasion playbook is well-established: shell companies, falsified certificates, and paper trails that vanish into regulatory black holes. As long as gas molecules can be swapped, renamed, or rerouted on paper, Russian gas will flow into Europe through the back door.

The tax solution Europe fails to consider

There is a straightforward way to end this economic and moral travesty: make Russian gas financially toxic through a tax on the price gap between cheap Russian gas and prevailing EU hub prices.

This would eliminate the arbitrage profits that European gas traders depend on, creating immediate economic pressure for early contract termination with Gazprom and Novatek. Instead of waiting until 2028, companies would have powerful financial incentives to diversify supply sources immediately.

The Commission ignored this approach entirely. Why kill profitable relationships with Putin’s energy giants when you can maintain them for another three years under the cover of “gradual transition”?

National plans: Bureaucratic shields for Putin’s allies

Perhaps the most cynical element of this proposal is the introduction of “national Russian energy phaseout plans,” allowing each member state to define its own timeline for cutting Russian imports.

This hands professional obstructionists like Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, and Bulgaria a legal cover to delay, dilute, and derail EU decoupling from Russian fossil fuels. We’ve witnessed this strategy repeatedly: the Commission proposes ambitious targets, certain member states hide behind “technical constraints” and “supply security concerns” for years.

These national plans will become bureaucratic shields for countries that prioritize cheap Russian energy over Ukrainian lives, transforming what should be coordinated European action into a patchwork of excuses and indefinite delays.

The cost of this bureaucratic cowardice is measured in Ukrainian blood.

The choice that defines Europe’s soul

This Commission proposal is not a strategy for ending Europe’s role in financing Russian war crimes — it’s a legal fig leaf for continuing business with Gazprom and Novatek under the illusion of eventual decoupling.

Every day Europe delays this decision, more Ukrainian families receive devastating news that their children won’t come home. Every billion euros flowing to Moscow funds the destruction of democracy’s front line.

Europe faces a simple choice: will it fund tyranny or freedom?

Stop REpowering Russia. Shut it down.

Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press’ editorial team may or may not share them.

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The Ukrainians are watching US President Donald Trump’s ultimatums to Iran with frustration as the US refuses to apply the same pressure to Russia.

While both regimes are using terrorist attacks as a weapon in war, the US is withholding new aid packages, avoiding fresh sanctions, effectively pressuring Kyiv toward capitulation. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its strikes after the start of Trump’s peace efforts, at times launching four times as many drones on Ukrainian cities as Iran.

This disappointment peaked when the G7 declined to issue a joint statement condemning the war, reportedly over US concerns it might complicate negotiations with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin.

A planned meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump at the summit was also canceled after Trump abruptly left the summit a day early. Ukraine intended to use the meeting to discuss the purchase of American weapons, including crucial air defenses.

Quiet summit, loud attack

At a moment of diplomatic failure in the West, Russia has seized the opportunity to fully display its destructive power, Texty reports. 

In a recent attack, Moscow launched nearly every non-nuclear weapon in its arsenal against Kyiv and other cities, killing 28 civilians just in the capital in what became the most extensive strike by volume of targets since 2022.

Altogether, Russia deployed:

• 440 Shahed-type kamikaze drones
• 72 various decoy unmanned aerial vehicles
• Two hypersonic Kinzhal missiles
• 16 Kh-101 cruise missiles
• Four Kalibr cruise missiles
• Nine aviation Kh-59/69 missiles
• One anti-radar Kh-31P missile

“Russia struck Ukraine deliberately to demonstrate that G7 leaders are weak,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Indeed, the G7 failed to release a joint statement on Russia’s war, which handed the Kremlin a diplomatic victory.

The scale of the assault has sparked fears in Ukraine about whether its air defenses can withstand repeated attacks of this volume. Of particular concern was the 18 June debut of a new variant of the Shahed drone, equipped with a built-in camera, machine-vision AI module, and direct radio control from Russian territory.

Kremlin speaks through firestorm

Electronic warfare expert Serhii Beskrestnov, known as Flash, has explained that the radio modem installed in the drone allows real-time remote control from up to 150 kilometers inside Russia or from the front line. If airborne relays are used inside Ukrainian airspace, the range is even greater, NV reports. 

According to The Economist, Russia has already modified its Shahed drones six times. Ukrainian engineers studying wreckage report growing concern over Russian unmanned aerial vehicles’ evolving control systems.

The latest models are resistant to Ukrainian electronic warfare. No longer reliant on GPS, these drones instead use onboard AI and operate via Ukrainian mobile internet networks.

Beskrestnov has warned that Ukraine could become exceptionally vulnerable to Russia’s growing drone swarm unless it rapidly develops its own drone interceptors. Moscow has already scaled up mass production of strike drones and continues to expand its capabilities.

War of attrition becomes war of precision

As the US support falters, Ukraine is doubling down on technological innovation.

Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD), explains that Russia’s expanding drone production is about quantity, but Ukraine is focused on quality.

“If our partners aren’t applying pressure, the Russians keep fighting. Our job is to hit hard, everywhere we can, and strip the Russians of their capabilities,” he says.

He continues: “This Kremlin collective is not eternal, just like the old Soviet politburo with its aging general secretaries who started dying off like cockroaches in the ’80s. The Ayatollah regime in Iran won’t last forever either, if its dismantling is approached surgically.”

Ukrainian engineers are rapidly advancing FPV interceptors and AI-based defense systems to overtake Russia’s tech leap. Kovalenko says dozens of drones in Ukraine are already guided simultaneously by autonomous algorithms.

Smart missiles and AI-driven drones with computer vision will now independently identify and destroy targets. Meanwhile, autonomous air and ground platforms will handle logistics and medevac missions.

Ukraine holds its first battle without soldiers

Kovalenko says the future lies in unmanned aerial and ground platforms, AI, and real-time battlefield intelligence. By the 2030s, the traditional role of infantry will be fundamentally transformed.

“A combat operation has already taken place in this war without any participation from classical infantry. It was carried out by one of our brigades,” he reveals.

In tomorrow’s warfare, sensor networks, AI, and data analysis will replace the need for human presence in front-line reconnaissance and strike coordination.

“The soldier of the future is an operator, an engineer, an analyst. Today’s infantry will become the brain of the battlefield machine,” he explains.

Simply put, the key to victory will be the speed and precision of mission planning, the intelligence of the algorithm, and the quality of equipment, not the number of soldiers on the battlefield.

Kovalenko also describes the coming technological arms race: “The Russian sheer quantity will be nullified. AI will evolve with evasion algorithms, drones, and weapons trying to dodge interception. But interception algorithms will evolve in turn.”

This, he added, is the real AI arms race between China and the West.

Europe’s defense goes quantum — and Kyiv’s plugged into future

To illustrate the global progress in military tech, Kovalenko cites Sweden’s successful combat trials of the unmanned Gripen E fighter jet equipped with the Centaur AI system.

“Over the Baltic Sea, this AI system engaged in a full-scale dogfight against a piloted aircraft, executing complex maneuvers, identifying targets, and determining the timing of the attack,” he says.

Centaur has undergone flight simulations equivalent to 50 years of operation and demonstrated combat readiness after just three real missions.

“The Beyond project, developed by Saab and German defense startup Helsing, is setting a new benchmark for next-generation air power,” Kovalenko adds.

Both of these tech giants are already linked with Ukraine. In May 2025, Saab held talks with Kyiv on modernizing Soviet-era aircraft and the potential transfer of advanced Swedish combat platforms.

The same year, Helsing announced that it was producing 6,000 HX-2 attack drones with artificial intelligence for delivery to Ukraine. The HX-2 is an electrically-powered, high-precision X-wing strike drone with a range of up to 100 kilometers. It is enhanced with onboard artificial intelligence that provides full immunity to electronic warfare.

While Trump walks out of the summit, even Spotify co-founders Daniel Ek and Shakil Khan have invested €600 million into Helsing, according to the Financial Times. The funding has boosted Helsing’s valuation to €12 billion, making it one of Europe’s five most valuable defense tech companies.

Daniel Ek, who chairs Helsing’s board, acknowledged that defense investments can be controversial but said he is “100% convinced” he made the right decision for Europe.

Shaheds vs. interceptors: race to save millions of lives

At a special G7 leaders’ session on 17 June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the urgent need for new drone interceptors, not just for Ukraine, but for Europe, the Indo-Pacific, Japan, Canada, and the US.

“We’re working on developing and deploying interceptors to protect our cities from Shaheds, our cities, and therefore yours. We need additional funding to produce them,” Zelenskyy said.

In the face of diplomatic retreat and Russian technological escalation, Ukraine is leaning on its own innovation and European allies, developing revolutionary military technologies that could redefine the very nature of modern warfare.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Ukraine to accelerate peace negotiations and accept Moscow’s terms from previous Istanbul talks, warning that Ukraine’s position would deteriorate if talks are postponed.

The Russian leader indicated Moscow is ready to resume peace discussions in Istanbul after 22 June, noting that negotiating teams from both countries maintain ongoing contact, according to Russian state-funded news agency RIA Novosti.

During Istanbul peace talks on 16 May, Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky reportedly told the Ukrainian delegation that Russia is prepared to fight for “a year, two, three—however long it takes,” invoking Russia’s historical 21-year war with Sweden to emphasize its willingness for prolonged conflict.

Despite Russia’s claim of not wanting war, Medinsky warned that some participants might lose more loved ones and that Russia is ready to fight indefinitely.

Independent estimates as of mid-May 2025 indicate Russia suffered heavy military losses, including over 10,800 tanks and nearly 1 million casualties, which contrasts with Medinsky’s “forever war” rhetoric.

During the June negotiations, Ukraine and Russia exchanged position papers outlining their respective visions for ending the war.

Russian demands include: 

• Ukrainian military withdrawal from four occupied regions (some parts of which are not even occupied fully) – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
• written guarantees from Western leaders to halt “NATO’s eastward expansion”, effectively excluding Ukraine, Georgia, and other former Soviet states from membership
• Ukraine adopting a neutral status and limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces.
• partial lifting of Western sanctions
• resolution of frozen Russian assets abroad
• protections for Russian speakers in Ukraine
• holding of Ukrainian elections under terms favorable to Moscow.

Ukraine rejected these demands, insisting on its sovereign right to choose alliances and strong Western security guarantees.

In contrast, Ukraine presented its own ceasefire proposals, including: 

• complete cessation of hostilities 
• return of deported children and prisoner exchanges
• security assurances
• rejection of any forced neutrality or restrictions on its military capabilities and alliances, including NATO membership
• direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin
• maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty. 

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that any peace agreement modeled on the 2022 Istanbul protocols would equate to Ukraine’s capitulation to Russia’s strategic objectives.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha declared that Russia’s rhetoric in 2025 intensified to 2022 levels and aims to weaken Ukraine militarily and politically to eventually destroy the state and exploit its resources.

A man accused of aiding Russian forces in occupied Berdiansk and organizing torture chambers has been killed, according to Ukrainian military intelligence agency, which just reported his death without confirming its involvement.

On 18 June 2025, in Russian-occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a pro-Russian collaborator and suspected war criminal, Mykhailo Pavlovych Hrytsai, was reportedly shot dead, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) stated.

From politician to collaborator

Hrytsai, originally from Poltava Oblast, previously led the local branch of the “Socialist Ukraine” party. Following the Russian occupation of Berdiansk in 2022, he began cooperating with Russian forces and assumed roles in the so-called occupation administration. He held the titles of “acting city mayor” and “deputy for infrastructure, utilities, and the fuel and energy sector.”

Ukrainian intelligence says Hrytsai exploited state property for the benefit of the Russian occupiers while holding these posts.

Accused of war crimes 

According to HUR, Hrytsai was directly involved in war crimes. These included persecuting the local population, identifying and reporting pro-Ukrainian residents to Russian authorities, and participating in the organization of torture chambers within Berdiansk.

THe Ukrainian law enforcement previously charged him in absentia on 1 April 2022 under Article 111, Part 2 of the Ukrainian Criminal Code for state treason.

Though the HUR statement did not directly claim responsibility for Hrytsai’s killing, it reaffirmed that “for every war crime committed against the Ukrainian people, there will be fair retribution.”

In the early hours of 19 June, a mass drone attack targeted multiple parts of Russia. In Volgograd, the attack prompted emergency flight restrictions and the temporary activation of the Kovyor airport shutdown protocol. The outcome of the assault remains unknown.

Volgograd is situated about 500 km from the frontline and hosts numerous military and military-industrial facilities, including the Titan-Barrikady defense plant, the Marinovka air base with Su-24 and Su-34 aircraft, and a major oil refinery crucial for military fuel logistics. Last time, Ukraine targeted an oil refinery in Volgograd in March.

Volgograd and Kaluga airports disrupted

According to Rosaviatsiya, temporary flight bans were introduced at Volgograd and Kaluga airports around 04:00 Kyiv time. The standard Kovyor plan — which halts all takeoffs and landings and redirects inbound aircraft — was enacted at Volgograd Airport due to the drone threat.

Authorities confirm drone attack

The governor of Volgograd Oblast, Andrey Bocharov, stated that Russian forces allegedly repelled a mass UAV assault across Kalachivskyi and Horodyschenskyi districts as well as southern Volgograd. He claimed the attack resulted in no injuries or damage.

Meanwhile, social media platforms circulated videos appearing to show fires caused by the drone strikes or crashes.

Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ posted video footage filmed in Volgograd, showing a fire in the city and a cloud of smoke from possible interception of a drone.

Russia’s Volgograd targeted by drones

Volgograd and Kaluga saw early-morning air traffic halted under emergency measures.https://t.co/NwkwcV8GKQ pic.twitter.com/tbb6HfCzgL

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 19, 2025

“Volgograd, this night UAVs attacked the city, consequences are being clarified,” the channel reported in the morning.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed its air defenses intercepted or downed 81 drones during the attack. The reported breakdown included:

• 19 drones over Bryansk Oblast
• 17 over Kursk Oblast
• 13 over Smolensk Oblast
• 7 over Volgograd Oblast
• 6 over Oryol Oblast
• 5 each over Rostov Oblast and temporarily occupied Crimea
• 3 each over Belgorod and Astrakhan Oblasts
• 2 over Ryazan Oblast
• 1 over Moscow Oblast

Eight individuals, including four officials from Slovakia’s Ministry of Defense, have been detained as part of a European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) investigation into alleged misuse of €7.4 million intended for Ukraine’s military support.

EU prosecutors target misuse of aid for Ukraine

On 18 June, the EPPO’s office in Bratislava conducted evidence-gathering activities tied to suspicions that funds allocated for Ukraine’s defense were misappropriated. The investigation focuses on the misuse of EU resources meant for military aid, specifically ammunition, which was donated to Ukraine during the early stages of the Russian invasion.

Defense officials allegedly violated procurement rules

According to the EPPO, senior Ministry of Defense officials submitted reimbursement applications to the European Peace Facility (EPF) between February and March 2022 for costs related to donated ammunition. However, investigators suspect the officials intentionally breached public procurement procedures and budgetary rules.

EPPO emphasized that all eight suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty in Slovak courts.

 

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed willingness to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy while simultaneously bringing up the Russian narrative of Zelenskyy’s “illegitimacy” as the president.  

Putin indicated that a meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur during the final phase of peace negotiations to finalize any agreement, according to a state-funded news agency TASS.

The Russian president framed the encounter as a concluding formality rather than a substantive negotiating session, telling journalists he would meet with Zelenskyy only to “put a period” on completed talks.

The legitimacy question forms the central obstacle in Putin’s framework for potential discussions.

“From a propaganda standpoint, one can say anything about the legitimacy of the current government in Ukraine. But for us, when resolving serious issues, the legal component is what’s important,” Putin stated.

Putin argued that any peace documents must be signed by representatives he considers legitimate Ukrainian authorities, claiming that agreements signed by illegitimate officials would “end up in the trash later.”

Russia uses “Illegitimacy” narrative to undermine peace talks

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s five-year presidential term officially ended on 20 May 2024, as he was elected in 2019. However, he continues to serve as president because Ukraine is under martial law due to the ongoing Russian invasion, which legally prohibits holding elections during this period for security reasons.

The United Nations and Ukraine’s key international allies recognize Zelenskyy as the legitimate head of state, emphasizing his democratic election in 2019.

However, questions about his legitimacy have emerged primarily from Russian propaganda efforts and have been echoed by some Western critics, including former US President Donald Trump, who have claimed his term expired and that he avoids elections to retain power.

Earlier, Trump labeled Zelenskyy as a “dictator” and blamed Ukraine for “provoking” Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. These claims echo Russian propaganda and have raised concerns among US allies about Trump’s stance potentially benefiting Moscow.

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War assesses that the Kremlin is intensifying efforts to delegitimize the Ukrainian government as part of a broader strategy to undermine Ukraine as a negotiating partner. This campaign includes demands for “regime” change and “demilitarization”, while Moscow insists on Ukraine’s capitulation and control over extensive territories, tying any ceasefire to the lifting of Western sanctions.

 

It’s increasingly rare for Russian regiments to organize a large mechanized attack. Running low on armored vehicles but flush with fresh infantry, the Russians increasingly attack on motorcycles, quad bikes … or on foot.

So it’s worth taking note when and where Russians forces roll out some of their vanishingly rare tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. The targets of the infrequent mechanized assaults are some of the Russians’ main objectives as their wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 40th month.

It should come as no surprise that the town of Kostyantynivka is one of those main objectives. Frustrated in their attempts to directly attack the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, Russians forces are trying to flank Pokrovsk—by rolling through Kostyantynivka, 40 km to the northeast. They’re willing to risk some of their armored vehicles for the chance to capture Kostyantynivka.

On Wednesday, a substantial Russian force—around a dozen up-armored BMPs and other vehicles—split into two sections and rolled northeast from Novoolenivka, heading for the village of Yablunivka.

They didn’t get very far. The Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade and 12th Azov Brigade spotted the approaching vehicles—and hit them with drones and potentially other munitions. When the smoke cleared, half or more of the vehicles were on fire.

The Wednesday assault was one of several in the area. All failed. “Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian defense forces positions near Predtechyne, Bila Hora, Oleksandro-Shultyne and Yablunivka,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted. “Ukrainian units prevented any deterioration of tactical positions.” 

But “the enemy continues to build up forces for further attacks,” CDS noted. And at least one analyst isn’t optimistic Ukrainian lines will hold. The Russians may be low on armored vehicles, but they’ve got infantry to spare thanks to strong recruiting numbers—driven in part by generous enlistment bonuses.

48.401173, 37.676050 destr. BMP-2 675
48.400666, 37.675930 UA AFV loss
48.415713, 37.67238 destr. BMP-2 675@UAControlMap @GeoConfirmed pic.twitter.com/9OumiDf5tm

— imi (m) (@moklasen) June 18, 2025

Mounting damage

“Things aren’t going well for Ukraine,” wrote Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight analysis group. 

While the Russian military steadily inducts 30,000 fresh infantry every month—more than enough to replace permanent losses to Ukrainian action and establish a few new units, the Ukrainian military is still struggling to recruit the 80,000 new infantry it needs to fully staff existing brigades. “With current resources, Ukraine can’t win,” Tatarigami claimed. 

“Russians will likely take Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, and Kupiansk is also at risk,” Tatarigami added, without saying when the Russians might take those cities and towns. 

But a Russian advance through and around Pokrovsk wouldn’t necessarily signal catastrophic defeat for Ukraine—nor decisive victory for Russia. “The most optimistic anticipated outcome here is where both sides lose,” Tatarigami explained.

“Russia’s realistic goal … may no longer be outright occupation,” Tatargami added, “but rather rendering Ukraine unviable as a functioning state—undermining its economy, depopulating its cities and precipitating long-term sociopolitical collapse.”

But “the Russian state itself suffers economic and demographic decline,” Tatarigami pointed out. In 40 months, more than a million Russians have been killed or wounded. War spending now accounts for 40% of the Kremlin’s budget. “Even a ‘successful’ outcome in Ukraine could leave Russia so depleted that it enters its own period of internal instability and geopolitical marginalization.” 

“If Ukraine manages to repel Russian advances, why wouldn’t that constitute a victory? Because, as noted, winning a war is not only about holding ground—it’s about what remains afterward.” 

Half a million Ukrainians have been killed or wounded. Entire cities are in ruin. “A country left with ruined infrastructure, lost territories, millions of its citizens displaced and a dramatically aged population with a GDP per capita over twice smaller than Mexico cannot claim a strategic win.” 

It’s better for Ukrainian forces to repulse a Russian mechanized attack than to not repulse a Russian mechanized attack. But that’s fleeting good news in a war that’s catastrophic for both sides. “If you think this has a happy ending,” Tatarigami concluded, “you haven’t been paying attention.”

Bridget Brink, who resigned earlier this year as the US Ambassador to Ukraine in protest of President Donald Trump’s Ukraine policy, has announced her candidacy for the 2026 congressional election in Michigan’s 7th District.

M Live says Bridget Brink announced on 18 June that she is running as a Democrat for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District in the upcoming 2026 election. 

In her announcement, Brink said:

“I’ve dedicated my life to public service, making the hard calls, tackling the toughest problems and holding the powerful accountable. And right now, our rights, our freedoms, our very democracy is at stake.”

Trump quietly scraps internal Russia pressure task force, Reuters sources say

Criticism of Trump’s Ukraine-Russia policies

In an op-ed published earlier, Brink voiced strong disapproval of Trump’s foreign policy.

“Unfortunately, President Trump keeps pressuring our democratic ally, Ukraine, rather than the aggressor, Russia,” she stated. “Appeasing a dictator never has, and never will, achieve a lasting peace. And it’s just not who we are.”

Ex-ambassador Brink says she quit over Trump’s Ukraine policy, calls it dangerous appeasement

From diplomacy to US politics

Brink was appointed as Ambassador to Ukraine by President Joe Biden in early 2022. Prior to that, she served as US Ambassador to Slovakia starting in 2019. Her career with the US Department of State began in 1996 and spanned various foreign policy roles in eastern European and western Asian countries.

The seat Brink is seeking is currently held by Republican Rep. Tom Barrett of Charlotte, who won it in 2024 by defeating former Democratic state Senator Curtis Hertel, Jr. with 50.28% of the vote to 46.56%.

The European Union is considering moving nearly €200 billion of frozen Russian state assets into riskier financial instruments to generate higher returns for Ukraine, Politico reports.

A new approach to frozen assets, yet still only proceeds are used instead of immobilized funds 

According to four unnamed EU officials cited by Politico, the European Commission is weighing a proposal to transfer Russian sovereign assets held in Belgium into a “special purpose vehicle” under the EU’s umbrella. The assets, frozen since 2022 in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, could be placed in higher-yield investments without affecting the underlying capital.

This strategy aims to deliver greater financial support to Ukraine “while avoiding accusations of stealing Moscow’s money,” which remains opposed by several EU countries including Germany and Italy.

Responding to political and budgetary pressure

The initiative comes amid increasing urgency to secure sustained funding for Ukraine, as US president Donald Trump threatens to cut US support. The EU’s €18 billion share of a previously agreed €45 billion G7 loan is expected to be fully paid out by the end of 2025, raising concerns about Ukraine’s finances in 2026.

EU finance ministers will convene on 19 June in Luxembourg to begin informal talks on future funding strategies. An invitation letter from the rotating Polish Council presidency, obtained by Politico, urges ministers to explore all available options, including the use of frozen Russian assets and the EU’s new defense loan scheme, SAFE.

Legal tightropes and Hungary’s veto threat

The current sanctions regime that blocks Russian assets requires unanimous EU renewal every six months. Hungary under pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly threatened to veto these renewals, potentially risking the unfreezing of the funds.

To circumvent this, the EU is discussing ways to shift the assets from Euroclear, which currently invests them at low risk with the Belgian central bank, into a “special purpose vehicle” that could pursue higher returns. However, no final workaround has yet been devised to neutralize a Hungarian veto, Politico notes, citing two informed officials.

Russian forces launched a mechanized offensive near Toretsk on 17 June using armored and motorized vehicles, signaling a possible shift in operational focus amid ongoing equipment shortages, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.

ISW’s 18 June report mentions Russia’s advances in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and near Donetsk Oblast’s Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

Assault near Yablunivka with armored and motorized vehicles

ISW cited geolocated footage from 17 June showing Russian troops carrying out a mechanized assault west of Yablunivka, which lies west of Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast. The footage confirmed the presence of at least three armored vehicles and four motorized units, likely all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), in the assault.

Reinforced assault near Kostiantynivka repelled by Ukrainian forces

On 18 June, Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov reported that a reinforced company-sized Russian assault near Kostiantynivka ended in failure. Ukrainian defenders reportedly destroyed 15 heavy armored vehicles and eight motorized vehicles during the clash. 

Russian airstrikes intensify on Ukrainian second defensive line northeast of Pokrovsk

Decline in Russian mechanized assaults since winter 2024–2025

According to ISW, Russian forces have decreased the frequency of mechanized assaults since Winter 2024–2025. This change likely stems from increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations and a dwindling Russian supply of armored vehicles.

ISW: Russia slows tank reserve use, turns to motorcycles and ATVs amid drone threats

As traditional tank reserves diminish, ISW observed that Russian forces increasingly rely on civilian vehicles, ATVs, and motorcycles. In April 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defense began formal efforts to integrate motorcycles into offensive tactics. These changes highlight growing logistical limitations for Russian mechanized units.

“Russian mechanized assaults in the Toretsk direction may indicate that the Russian military command intends to prioritize this sector of the front,” ISW wrote.

Ukraine will receive €3.883 billion from the European Union in July under the Ukraine Facility after passing a key reform demanded by Brussels, according to Ukraine’s envoy to the EU, cited by RFI.

Ukrainian parliament backs ARMA reform

On 18 June, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a bill to reform the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA), a body responsible for identifying, seizing, and managing assets obtained through criminal means. A total of 253 Ukrainian lawmakers supported the legislation. The reform was a prerequisite for unlocking additional EU financial support.

Funding increase tied to legislative progress

Ukraine’s representative to the EU, Vsevolod Chentsov, told RFI that the law enabled Ukraine to increase its request for the next installment of funding under the Ukraine Facility.

“This allowed us to increase our request for the next tranche under the financial instrument for Ukraine, the Ukraine Facility, to €3.883 billion,” Chentsov stated.

Brussels responds to reform efforts

The reform led to a €600 million increase in the amount of the upcoming tranche, according to Chentsov. The European Union is set to deliver the funds in July. Kyiv receives financing under the Ukraine Facility in stages, with each tranche contingent upon progress in EU-related reforms.

 

The fiber-optic drones that laugh at Russian jammers. The $10,000 radars that beat $10-million systems. The netgun quadcopters snatching enemy eyes from the sky. None came from NATO labs — they came from basements, battlefields, and backchannel Zoom calls.

While Ukraine’s allies debated aid packages and tiptoed around “escalation,” a global league of engineers, tinkerers, and combat-tested coders — calling themselves Defense Tech for Ukraine (DTU) — has built a rapid-response tech pipeline their own governments can only dream of.

Putin bet everything on a slow grind to wear Ukraine down. Instead, every second now fuels his worst nightmare: a grassroots tech incubator taking on his billion-dollar systems with garage-built solutions. While global defense giants waste years in development hell, these 150 volunteers deliver life-saving solutions in weeks — and shift the balance where it matters most: Ukraine’s front line.

The geeks who decided Russia had to lose

This volunteer force wasn’t built in boardrooms — it was born in crisis. As Ukraine’s defenders scrambled in the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, a handful of pro-Ukrainian veterans, engineers, and foreign tech allies realized crowdfunding a few drones wouldn’t cut it. They needed something faster, smarter — and scalable.

The answer? Build a nimble incubator to support Ukraine’s burgeoning defense industry and help its engineers win a war of attrition with invention—skipping the bureaucracy and contracts to beat traditional arms pipelines by months.

The stakes were existential. Andrii, a drone pilot in Ukraine’s 109th Territorial Defense Brigade, explains that modern war demands rapid tactical shifts and the near-immediate deployment of new technologies, often moving straight from blueprint to battlefield.

Nowhere is this urgency more visible than in drone warfare, where reconnaissance, targeting, resupply, and strike all hinge on real-time aerial dominance.

“Drones play a very big role on the battlefield, more than anything else,” adds Yaroslav, a drone pilot from the 110th Mechanized Brigade.

The war room Putin never saw coming

DTU has become one of Ukraine’s fastest-moving defense incubators — a decentralized network where frontline urgency meets global engineering talent. Its 150 members span European and North American engineers, manufacturers, veterans, donors, and active-duty Ukrainian soldiers — all working to turn battlefield needs into deployable tools at record speed.

There’s no boardroom — just six weekly calls, split between English and Ukrainian, where developers sync directly with end users — soldiers testing their inventions under fire. As co-founder Carl Larson noted, the pressure is real: at one meeting, a member warned that if Ukraine didn’t move fast enough, Russia would field the same idea first.

“The group is dedicated and passionate about helping Ukraine,” says Roy Gardiner, a former Canadian Armed Forces officer and open-source weapons researcher who volunteers with DTU. “Members devote what time they each can.”

The US veteran who hacked Russia’s jammers

By late 2024, DTU’s work had outgrown the screen. Seven of its American and European members flew to Ukraine to fast-track what they had been building remotely: a high-speed supply chain for battlefield innovation. In a whirlwind of meetings, they linked up with 15 defense manufacturers — including 12 drone makers and three anti-drone developers — along with drone schools, NGOs, military units, and the rising constellation of Ukraine’s wartime engineers.

The results speak for themselves. DTU-backed projects range from drone-mounted netguns to vertical-takeoff bombers and low-cost radar systems. But the breakthrough was a fiber-optic drone control system — a jamming-proof lifeline that beams stable high-definition feeds to the operator.

The concept came from Troy Smothers, a US Marine veteran and founder of the Drone Reaper initiative. DTU helped sharpen the prototype and pushed it to its first confirmed success on the battlefield.

“We gave it away,” says Carl Larson, a DTU co-founder and former soldier in Ukraine’s International Legion. “Now, it’s everywhere.”

By open-sourcing the design and proving it in combat, DTU helped trigger a wave of fiber-guided drone adoption — not just for strikes, but for resupply missions in places too deadly for manned vehicles.

“They used the DTU drone against a target they couldn’t reach due to jamming,” Roy Gardiner adds. “It worked on the first attempt.”

Gardiner notes that DTU played a key role in pushing fiber-optic adoption across Ukrainian units. The tech didn’t stop there: that same fiber-optic system now powers ground drones delivering food, fuel, and ammo to frontline troops — replacing high-risk resupply runs with cable-controlled precision under fire.

The day Kremlin’s engineers stopped sleeping — and killed a HIMARS from 6 miles away

For all its promise, Ukraine’s fiber-guided tech still trails behind Russia’s in both range and reliability. On missions up to 15 kilometers (9.3 miles), Ukrainian drones succeed just 10–30% of the time, climbing to 50% only when using shorter 10 km (6.2 miles) spools.

By contrast, Russian fiber-optic drones boast an 80% success rate over 20 km (12.4 miles) — powered by stronger signal transmitters, superior optical wavelengths, and sharper digital IP cameras that beat Ukraine’s analog setups.

Russia’s edge is also structural. Their drones use thicker, more resilient cables that reduce breakage mid-flight. Ukraine’s platforms often rely on ultra-thin 0.25 mm (0.01 inch) fiber — lighter, but far more prone to failure.

“The enemy is using fiber-optic drones more extensively than we are,” says Roman Kostenko, Ukraine’s MP and secretary of the parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence

To make the competition worse, the Kremlin is scaling fast. Moscow has begun mass-producing the Knyaz Vandal (KVN) drone — a fiber-guided platform with near-total immunity to jamming, 1 Gbps data transmission, and a reported 95% hit rate. It can carry up to 20 km (12.4 miles) of cable, though even 10 km (6.2 miles) adds 2.3 kilograms (5.1 pounds), limiting its agility.

Despite its limits, it’s still lethal enough. In one recent strike, a KVN drone flew more than six miles (9.7 km) behind the front line and destroyed High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers — one of Ukraine’s most prized US-supplied artillery systems.

Kyiv’s response: bomb the factory copying your garage

Ukraine is innovating fast — but to stay ahead in the drone war, it needs all the help it can get. Much of that help still comes from outside formal structures, through agile volunteer networks that move faster than any bureaucracy.

“When something is urgently needed, you call your volunteer contacts and they’ll bring you everything, and often even more than you asked for,” says Danylo, a drone pilot from Ukraine’s 108th Territorial Defense Brigade.

As Kyiv races to scale its own fiber-guided drone production, it’s blowing holes in Russia’s. In a long-range operation, Ukrainian drones hit the Optic Fiber Systems plant in Saransk, deep in Russia’s Mordovia Republic — about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from the border.

“The fiber optic systems plant in Saransk was very seriously damaged after the strike,” confirmed Andrii Kovalenko of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Meanwhile, DTU keeps hunting for battlefield fixes — even the ones that seem small on paper but make a big difference under fire. Co-founder Carl Larson has crisscrossed Ukraine meeting with developers of radio-frequency detectors, searching for tweaks that troops can use immediately.

One engineer added a foldable sun visor to a pocket-sized signal scanner, printed with key frequency ranges and a QR code that links straight to the manual — so even if the paper instructions are lost, the tool stays usable on the front.

“It might seem like a small thing,” says DTU’s President Jonathan Lippert. “But it means a significant percentage of soldiers who might lose paper instructions will still be able to access them online and actually use the device effectively.”

This kind of field-adapted thinking is the backbone of DTU’s model: rapid fixes, open-source sharing, and no time wasted.

“Success for us is helping improve Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, however that might look,” Lippert adds. “That means getting advanced capabilities into soldiers’ hands faster and more broadly.”

When “calling a guy” beats Pentagon red tape

DTU is currently field-testing a wave of new tools — including an RF detection device, an acoustic system now being trialed in combat, and a sub-$10,000 radar urgently needed to spot Russia’s newest fiber-optic drones.

“In the next month or two, we expect to have three different drone-mounted devices ready for testing, focused on counter-drone and anti-jamming operations,” Lippert says.

Unlike traditional defense contractors, DTU doesn’t chase contracts as its volunteers operate in a space between formal military procurement and guerrilla maker culture. Their projects, like the “Iklo” drone-mounted shotgun system or drone-mounted RF detectors, are often too niche, fast-moving, and unorthodox for large vendors or government defense ministries. But on Ukraine’s high-tech battlefield, these are exactly the tools that decide everything.

And DTU doesn’t operate alone — it’s plugged into a broader ecosystem driving battlefield innovation. It partners with Brave1, the Ukrainian government’s official defense-tech incubator, and works alongside grassroots groups like Kyiv Defenders and UkrLegion — NGOs supporting drone teams, training, and tactical innovation. Regional tech clusters in cities like Lviv and Kharkiv round out the network, turning Ukraine’s war zones into live innovation labs.

This decentralized model gives DTU an edge that most governments can’t match: speed. While traditional defense programs are bogged down by bureaucracy, DTU moves with the urgency of war — powered by engineers, soldiers, and volunteers solving problems in real time.

It also offers Western investors and defense planners a glimpse of the future: a wartime innovation pipeline powered not by national labs but by networks of passionate individuals working outside of hierarchies.

The model isn’t just fast — it’s scalable. DTU is already exploring how to bring in venture capital to match proven battlefield tools with dual-use potential down the line.

“Our future plans include close partnerships with UA units, supporting innovation amongst their drone teams to accelerate the testing and adoption of new technologies,” Larson says.

5 million reasons Putin should be terrified

Ukraine has redefined modern defense not with billion-dollar programs, but with speed, scale, and cost-efficiency. In just three years of resisting Russian aggression, it’s built a wartime tech industry capable of overwhelming more sophisticated systems through sheer volume.

“Victory on the battlefield now depends entirely on the ability to outpace the enemy in technological development,” said Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief — a warning that has become the backbone of Ukraine’s defense.

That mindset is exactly what Ukraine’s global backers are betting on. Deborah Fairlamb, Founding Partner at Green Flag Ventures — a US fund investing in Ukrainian-founded companies that can scale globally — pointed to Ukraine’s biggest strategic breakthrough: speed at scale.

In just three years, the country turned battlefield urgency into an advantage, flooding the front with cheap, effective hardware built fast enough to beat Russia’s slower, more advanced systems.

The numbers tell the story. From zero drone production in 2022, Ukraine is now on track to manufacture up to 5 million units in 2025. Iteration cycles that once took years are now completed in weeks. New tools can reach frontline troops in just three to four weeks — a speed few traditional defense ecosystems can match.

Justin Zeefe, co-founder of Green Flag Ventures, adds that wartime innovation gives these startups a critical edge. By developing and stress-testing their products under live battlefield conditions, Ukrainian firms gain real-world validation and credibility. That, in turn, positions them for faster adoption in NATO and Eastern European markets facing similar threats.

Powered by volunteers, Ukraine has outpaced one of the world’s biggest militaries — but in this race, falling behind even once could be fatal. This is a fight built on everyone showing up — and every personal contribution is vital to keeping Ukraine in the fight.

“It’s an easy sell to tell engineers and students they can join a free group in their spare time to help defend democracy, save lives and stand with the Ukrainian people on the right side of history,” Larson says.

Vladimir Putin is facing deepening strategic isolation as Israel’s military offensive against Iran threatens to unravel a key alliance underpinning Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, writes Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Telegraph.

In a sharply worded column, Coughlin argues that “Putin’s primary concern… will be the impact that Israel’s continuing assault on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure will have on Tehran’s ability to continue its support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.”

Since last week, Israeli forces have launched targeted strikes against Iranian missile and drone production sites — the same systems that have been regularly supplied to Russia since the summer of 2022. According to Coughlin, the Israeli campaign “appears to have paid dividends,” with a notable drop in attacks originating from Iran.

A strategic blow to Moscow

The deepening Russia-Iran relationship, sealed in January with a 20-year strategic pact, has been critical to sustaining Russia’s campaign in Ukraine. In exchange for military hardware from Tehran, Moscow had promised to boost Iran’s air defenses and air force capabilities. But Coughlin notes that this “has clearly failed to deter Israel from launching its military offensive.”

As Iranian military capacity is degraded, Putin risks losing a crucial source of support. “If the Iranians are unable to provide sufficient weaponry for their own military campaign against Israel,” Coughlin writes, “they will be in no position to support Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.”

Regional influence under threat

The ramifications extend beyond Ukraine. With Syria’s Assad regime reportedly collapsed and now “languishing in exile in Moscow,” Russia’s Middle East strategy appears to be unraveling. Coughlin suggests Putin’s broader effort to project power in the region is now in jeopardy.

The article also highlights the precariousness of Russia’s position within the informal alliance of authoritarian states — Iran, North Korea, China, and Russia — warning that Israel’s attacks could weaken their interconnected military and economic interests.

Coughlin concludes: “Putin’s standing in the region is in danger of precipitous collapse.”

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen confirmed that the European Union will not resume imports of Russian natural gas—even if a peace agreement is reached in Ukraine.

Russia supplied about 45% of EU gas in 2021, a figure expected to fall to 13% by 2025. Despite progress, the EU imported record volumes of Russian LNG in 2024.

“This is a ban that we introduce because Russia has weaponised energy against us, because Russia has blackmailed member states in the EU, and therefore they are not a trading partner that can be trusted,” Jørgensen said.

“That also means that, irrespectively of whether there is a peace or not—which we all hope there will be, of course—this ban will still stand.”

EU plans full phase-out of Russian fossil fuels by 2028

The gas ban is part of a broader EU strategy to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2028. The proposed legislation would prohibit EU companies from importing Russian pipeline gas or providing services to Russian clients at liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. Importers must also declare the source of their fuel to prevent Russian gas from being disguised as coming from another country.

Any new contracts signed after the plan is adopted must end by 1 January 2026. Existing contracts must be terminated by 1 January 2028.

Austria walks back vomments on Russian gas

Austria’s junior energy minister, Elisabeth Zehetner, caused a stir earlier this week by suggesting the EU should remain open to reconsidering Russian gas imports in the event of a peace deal. However, her office later clarified Austria’s position, stating that the country “strongly condemns” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supports the proposed gas ban.

“The allegation that Austria wants to import Russian gas again after the war, let alone now, is simply false,” the statement read.

Austrian Green MEP Lena Schilling called the initial suggestion “shortsighted and morally irresponsible,” asking, “Have we learned nothing from bombed hospitals, abducted children and a war of aggression in the heart of Europe?”

Austria previously relied heavily on Russian gas, but supplies were halted in 2023 due to a contractual dispute. Deliveries via Ukraine ended the same year.

Hungary and Slovakia maintain opposition

Hungary and Slovakia continue to oppose the EU’s fossil fuel phase-out. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szíjjártó claimed Hungarian consumers could face utility bills four times higher. He also posted a dramatic video on social media to criticize the plan. EU officials have rejected those claims, saying there’s no evidence prices would spike.

The current gas legislation does not affect an existing exemption from the EU’s oil embargo. Hungary and Slovakia were granted a carve-out in 2023 allowing continued imports via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline—a provision that falls under a separate legal framework.

Russian oil also in the crosshairs

The EU is also targeting Russian oil, aiming to end imports entirely by 2028. Russian oil made up 27% of EU imports in 2021 but has already dropped to around 3%. The oil ban, like the gas proposal, is part of the EU’s broader strategy to cut energy ties with Moscow and boost long-term energy security.

Emergency crews have completed search and rescue operations at a residential building in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district, where a Russian missile strike on 17 June caused extensive destruction.

The strike was part of a large-scale, coordinated Russian attack on Ukraine that night. One missile directly hit the nine-story residential building, destroying an entire section.

Rescue efforts end after 39 hours

Ukraine’s Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko confirmed that the operation lasted over 39 hours. At 7:20 PM on 18 June, first responders officially concluded search efforts at the site.

“Sadly, 23 lives were lost at this site alone,” Klymenko said. “Across the capital, 28 people died and over 140 were injured as a result of the strike.”

Although search operations have ended, crews continue to dismantle damaged structures and clear debris.

39 hours of digging through ruins.

Kyiv rescue crews have ended operations after one of Russia’s largest strikes.
A missile hit a 9-story building on Tuesday.

23 bodies recovered at the site
28 killed across the city
140+ injured

Photo Suspilne, Hromadske pic.twitter.com/6AaXZDhAk5

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 18, 2025

Emergency response faced harsh conditions

The rescue effort was one of the most intensive in recent months and involved:

• Over 400 personnel from the State Emergency Service (SES)
• More than 200 units of specialized equipment
• Drones, search dogs, and heavy engineering machinery

Two people were rescued from beneath the rubble. Around 50 others were evacuated from apartments and stairwells during the response.

Stairwell collapse in nearby damaged building

Later the same day, Kyiv officials reported an internal collapse in a nearby five-story residential building also damaged in the strike. A stairwell between the upper floors gave way, but no injuries were reported. Five residents were safely evacuated.

City in mourning as recovery continues

Kyiv declared 18 June a day of mourning to honor the victims of the attack. More than 2,000 emergency workers have been deployed across the capital to assist with ongoing recovery operations.

Next week’s Nato summit in The Hague will be significantly shortened to accommodate President Donald Trump’s short attention span — and a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be carefully avoided, The Times reports.

Nato format cut to single session

The 25 July summit will consist of just one 2.5-hour session, a major departure from NATO’s usual multi-session format. According to The Times, diplomats hope the streamlined event will reduce the risk of tension or unpredictability.

“It is about keeping the summit focused, short and sweet,” a diplomat told the paper. “Trump can be impatient and has — [he has] said it himself — a short attention span. The shorter the better.”

There will be no joint press conference between Trump and Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and the summit’s final communiqué will be just five paragraphs, printed on a single sheet of paper.

Zelenskyy excluded from main talks

President Zelenskyy will be present in The Hague only for a leaders’ dinner on 24 June. He has not been invited to the main summit session, and no meeting of the NATO–Ukraine Council at the heads-of-state level is scheduled. Instead, he is expected to speak at a Defense Industry Forum on the sidelines.

Diplomatic sources suggest the decision aims to prevent any direct confrontation between Trump and Zelenskyy. While Euractiv and ANSA reported the US opposed Zelenskyy’s formal invitation, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has denied that claim.

Ukraine dropped from final statement

Despite Ukraine’s long-standing bid to join the alliance, the country will neither be invited to join nor even mentioned in the final NATO communiqué, diplomatic sources told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. The statement will label Russia as a “direct threat”, but omit any language about Ukraine’s future in the alliance.

Ukraine’s desire for NATO membership dates back to 2008, and its constitution enshrines the goal of joining. Yet even after three years of full-scale war against Russia, no formal steps toward membership are expected in The Hague.

“This issue is definitely not on NATO’s agenda, and there have been no expectations of an invitation in The Hague,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told LRT.

Defence spending target to please Trump

The summit’s main goal will be agreement on a new defence spending target of 5% of GDP by 2032, with a review in 2029. The proposal includes 3.5% for core military budgets and 1.5% for defense-related spending.

The decision will be framed as a personal win for Trump, who has long demanded more spending from European allies.

“Keeping unity in the alliance is as much a priority as spending more on defence,” said EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas.

Trump left G7 early, skipped meeting with Zelenskyy

The decision to avoid a Trump–Zelenskyy encounter at the NATO summit follows a similar scene just days earlier. Trump abruptly left the G7 summit in Canada, skipping a planned meeting with Zelenskyy.

According to The Guardian, Trump exited early, “citing the Israel‑Iran conflict.” Reuters reported that Zelenskyy was denied a meeting with his most powerful ally, leaving the Ukrainian side frustrated and empty-handed after the gathering.

US President Donald Trump says he declined an offer from Russian President Vladimir Putin to mediate rising tensions with Iran, stating that unresolved issues between Washington and Moscow should be addressed first.

“I spoke with him yesterday. He actually offered to help with mediation. I said, ‘Do me a favor—let’s mediate Russia first,’” Trump told reporters, according to Russian news outlet RBC.

Trump calls Russia and Ukraine “foolish”

President Trump also took aim at both Russia and Ukraine, calling them “foolish” during his remarks and once again asserting that the Ukraine war would not have happened had he been in office at the time of its outbreak.

Trump-Putin call on 14 June — the President’s birthday

Although the Kremlin did not officially confirm the exchange, both Moscow and Washington acknowledged a 14 June phone call between the two leaders. The conversation reportedly lasted nearly an hour and focused largely on Middle East tensions, particularly involving Iran.

“The call was substantive, candid, and, most importantly, very useful,” said Yury Ushakov, a senior aide to Putin.

On Truth Social, President Trump revealed that Putin called to wish him a happy birthday and discuss Iran—a country Trump said Putin “knows very well.” He added that Ukraine was only “briefly” discussed.

Ukraine peace talks still in deadlock

President Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine a central focus of his second term. He’s pushing for renewed peace talks and a 30-day ceasefire. While limited humanitarian efforts, such as prisoner exchanges, have occurred, no formal peace deal has been reached.

Sticking points remain over territorial control and long-term security guarantees.

Trump has faced criticism from lawmakers and allies for appearing to pressure Ukraine more than Russia, and for his calls to end all US military aid to Kyiv—a stance that has raised concerns about America’s global commitments and Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

Ukraine will neither be invited to join NATO nor mentioned in the final communiqué of next week’s NATO leaders’ summit in The Hague, according to diplomatic sources.

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has made NATO membership a central pillar of its national security strategy. The country’s constitution enshrines this goal, and public support remains strong. NATO first declared in 2008 that Ukraine “will become a member,” and in recent years, Western leaders have repeatedly referred to Ukraine’s “irreversible path” toward the Alliance.

Yet despite three years of full-scale war fought under the banner of Euro-Atlantic integration—and multiple high-level assurances—Ukraine has not been invited to join. Now, it won’t even be mentioned in NATO’s top-level statement.

NATO membership not on the table

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys confirmed that Ukrainian membership is not up for discussion.

“This issue is definitely not on NATO’s agenda, and there have been no expectations of an invitation in The Hague,” Budrys told LRT. “We haven’t heard this from the Ukrainians either.”

According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the final communiqué is expected to be unusually brief—likely a single page. While it will identify Russia as a long-term threat, it is not expected to reference Ukraine at all.

Allies push for higher defense spending

Member states are expected to commit to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2032, with a review in 2029. That timeline aligns with the end of a potential second term for Donald Trump, who has supported higher military spending but has questioned NATO’s direction and further expansion.

Zelenskyy’s limited role at the summit

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend a leaders’ working dinner on 24 June, where Trump is also expected. However, he will not participate in the main summit session, and no meeting of the NATO–Ukraine Council at the heads-of-state level is scheduled. Zelenskyy is instead expected to speak at a Defense Industry Forum held on the sidelines.

On 2 June, Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine had been invited to the summit in some capacity, but the format and prominence of his involvement remain unclear.

On 15 May, Euractiv reported that, for the first time in three years, Zelenskyy would not be invited to participate in NATO’s main discussions—allegedly to avoid provoking Donald Trump. Around the same time, ANSA reported that the US was reportedly opposed to his formal invitation. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio later denied these claims, saying the United States had no objection to Zelenskyy’s participation.

 

Ukrainians and Americans organized an emergency demonstration at Times Square demanding more US action against Russia following a massive Russian attack on Ukraine that killed more than two dozen people on 17 June.

The rally took place on the evening of 17 June, with demonstrators carrying Ukrainian flags and signs reading “Google Kyiv today,” “‘Ceasefire’ – they said,” and “Sanctions against Russia – now,” according to protest participants Vsevolod Myrnyi and Marichka Hlyten.

Myrnyi called on participants to contact their elected officials.

“Call your representatives and senators. Tell them: ‘We demand more sanctions against Russia. We demand air defense systems for Ukraine. We demand more military aid – weapons that help save lives,'” he wrote.

He emphasized that Ukraine is defending itself while Russia targets civilian buildings, and noted that while Congress already has many supporters for Ukraine, constituent voices help drive action.

The demonstration responded to a Russian assault on the night of 17 June that targeted Kyiv and multiple Ukrainian oblasts. Russian forces launched 440 drones and 32 missiles against Ukraine, striking Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv.

Ukrainian air defenses destroyed most of the incoming targets, but hits were recorded in 10 locations, with debris from downed objects falling in 34 locations. In Kyiv, 28 people died and 134 were injured, with the death toll from a missile strike on a 9-story residential building reaching 23 people.

In Odesa, a 60-year-old woman was killed and 17 people wounded, with damage to residential buildings, an inclusive center, a preschool, and garages.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told G7 leaders that Russia intensified its nightly drone attacks as “the only real change” since Trump returned to the White House, with Moscow now routinely deploying 100 drones per night compared to what would have been shocking levels a year ago.

The Ukrainian leader argued this escalation proves supporters of stronger sanctions are “absolutely right.” While Trump told reporters at the G7 summit he would not approve new sanctions against Russia, citing costs to the US, Zelenskyy called for a $30 per barrel price cap on Russian oil and $40 billion in annual budget support for Ukraine.

The US is currently blocking European efforts to lower the existing $60 per barrel price cap to $45, despite EU and UK pressure to reduce Moscow’s war funding, with Zelenskyy arguing that “Russia blocked all efforts” at ceasefire negotiations and continues military operations without adequate consequences.

Today there are a lot of interesting updates from the Russian Federation.

Here, Ukraine has officially unleashed its newly developed bomber drones, marking a major escalation in its ability to strike deep into Russian territory. With advanced precision, extended range, and overwhelming cost-efficiency, these drones are already devastating Russian military infrastructure—setting the stage for a transformative shift in the battlefield dynamic.

Over the weeks, the Ukrainians conducted a series of successful strikes against military and economic targets in Russia, which resulted in damage to over half a hundred military industrial factories, strategic airbases, microelectronics producers, chemical plants, fiber optic facilities, and key logistical routes, including the Kerch bridge. 

Recently, Ukrainians presented the new Batyar-S strike drone, which resembles the Russian Shahed and Geranium strike drones, but only on the outside. Designed from scratch, the new Ukrainian drone has an effective flight range of over 800 kilometers (497 miles) while carrying an 18-kilogram explosive warhead. 

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Additionally, the drone is lighter than Shahed, weighing only 60 kilograms, which allows the Ukrainians to deploy it using trucks as launch platforms, making it easy to quickly and efficiently deploy it for any strikes. On top of that, it features superior optical systems that analyze landscapes and terrain in real-time, combining them with satellite footage to adjust its flight trajectory towards the target, and stay as low as possible to evade radar detection and air defenses.

However, one of its biggest advantages is that the Batyar-S drone costs approximately 4 times less than the Ukrainian strike drones currently in use, meaning that Ukrainians will be able to produce four times as many drones and strike 4 times the targets.

As the Ukrainians focus their development on drone technology for various purposes, they have also developed a new bomber drone, the B-1.  B-1 drones are ultralight bomber drones designed to destroy concentrations of manpower, trucks, armored vehicles, and military strongholds on the frontline and in the rear. 

Bomber drones are designed to carry repurposed drone-droppable hand grenades, artillery shells, or other explosives on Russian positions as they fly over their target. The light weight of the drone and its low-noise engine allow it to fly towards Russian lines almost unnoticed, while the drone itself can stay in the air for several hours.

Early frontline reports suggest the drone is extremely resilient against Russian electronic warfare, making it a deadly precision weapon that can hit targets far beyond the range of pre-existing Ukrainian bomber drones like the Vampire hexacopter, already nicknamed the Baba Yaga by both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers for its deadliness. 

The newly developed drone technologies will massively enhance Ukrainian strike capabilities against Russian targets on the frontline and in the deep rear. Ukrainian strikes have already damaged and destroyed production facilities, essential for rebuilding Russia’s strategic bomber fleet after they lost a third of them during Operation Spiderweb.

Ukrainians have also crippled direct Russian production of weapons and ammunition manufacturing, with strikes on long range drone and fiber optic facilities, ammunition factories, and chemical and technical facilities producing rockets and missiles. Now, with the new drones, Ukrainians will be able to strike four times more targets, and much more effectively, promising death and destruction for the Russian frontline and the rear. 

Overall, the Ukrainians effectively maximized the results of their precision strikes against targets in Russia, while developing new drones based on the experience gained from these strikes. These new variants will be able to hit Russia like never before and seriously undermine the Russian summer offensive; as the Russians go all-in for this summer, so are the Ukrainians, promising a decisive military campaign over the next few months, which might well decide the outcome of the war in Ukraine. 

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

US Special Representative for Ukraine Keith Kellogg is planning to visit Belarus in the coming days to meet with President Alexander Lukashenko, according to Reuters citing four sources briefed on the matter.

If the visit occurs, Kellogg would become the highest-ranking American official to visit Belarus in years. Two sources told Reuters that Kellogg has privately described the trip as a step that could help restart peace talks aimed at ending Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The meeting’s precise agenda remains unclear and planning for such visits requires careful negotiation. The trip could potentially be canceled or modified at the last minute, the sources indicated.

The last high-level US official visit to Belarus was in 2020 when then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled there. Since then, visits have been limited to lower-ranking officials, such as the February 2025 trip by Deputy Assistant Secretary Christopher W. Smith, aimed at securing the release of political prisoners.

The potential visit represents a shift in US-Belarus relations. The US suspended operations at its embassy in Belarus in 2022 after it became clear that Minsk would support Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration had distanced itself from Belarus following the 2020 election, which international observers condemned as neither free nor fair, and the subsequent crackdown on street protests.

One US official told Reuters that the Trump administration has internally discussed ways to pull Minsk away from Moscow’s influence, even if only marginally. However, Western diplomats have expressed skepticism about US efforts to court Belarus, which maintains strong alignment and economic ties with Russia.

Kellogg’s visit comes after two recent Istanbul meetings between Ukrainian and Russian delegations that were focused on trying to find an end to the war. Both of the resulted mainly in massive prisoner exchanges but little progress on a ceasefire.

During Istanbul talks on 2 June, Russia presented Ukraine with a memorandum outlining its conditions for peaceful settlement. These demands include: 

• Ukrainian military withdrawal from four occupied regions (some parts of which are not even occupied fully).
• written guarantees from Western leaders to halt “NATO’s eastward expansion”, effectively excluding Ukraine, Georgia, and other former Soviet states from membership
• Ukraine adopting a neutral status and limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces.
• partial lifting of Western sanctions
• resolution of frozen Russian assets abroad
• protections for Russian speakers in Ukraine.

Ukraine rejected these demands, insisting on its sovereign right to choose alliances and strong Western security guarantees.

In contrast, Ukraine presented its own ceasefire proposals, as reported by Financial Times journalist Christopher Miller.

These include:

• complete cessation of hostilities 
• confidence-building measures such as the return of deported children and prisoner exchanges
• security assurances
• direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin
• international community involvement while maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty. 

 

Speaking at the G7 summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy argued that Russia intensified its nightly aerial campaigns as the primary tactical adjustment since Donald Trump returned to the White House, with drone swarms becoming routine rather than exceptional.

According to Zelenskyy, Russia now routinely deploys 100 drones per night against Ukrainian targets, a scale that would have been shocking a year ago.

“If last year the use of 100 ‘Shaheds’ in one night caused real shock, now it already seems unusual if fewer than 100 drones are used in one attack,” the Ukrainian leader stated.

The president characterized this intensification as “the only real change in Russia’s behavior after the change of US president,” suggesting Moscow has adapted its military strategy to the new political landscape in Washington.

“And it proves that those who support new and stronger sanctions against Russia are absolutely right,” Zelenskyy added.

Meanwhile, during the G7 leaders meeting in Canada, Trump told reporters he would not approve new sanctions against Russia, citing them as costly for the US and still expressing hope for a potential peace deal.

The Ukrainian president, however, addressed stalled diplomatic efforts, noting that while the US and President Trump had proposed ceasefires and negotiations, “Russia blocked all efforts.” He urged continued pressure on Trump to leverage his influence with Putin to end the war.

Zelenskyy argued that Russia continues its military operations without facing adequate consequences, making the case for stronger international sanctions.

He specifically called on G7 members to work with the United States to implement a $30 per barrel price cap on Russian oil and to maintain $40 billion in annual budget support for Ukraine.

“Together, we must make this painful for Russia. The EU’s 18th round of sanctions should also hit Russia’s energy and banking sectors,” Zelenskyy said.

The United States, however, is blocking European efforts to lower the G7 price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel, despite EU and UK pressure to reduce Moscow’s war funding. The proposed reduction is part of Europe’s latest sanctions package aimed at cutting deeper into Russian oil profits used to finance the Ukraine invasion, but the final decision rests with President Trump, who has shown no flexibility on the issue.

The number of fatalities from Russia’s 17 June massive attack on Kyiv has climbed to 26 people, with rescue teams continuing to recover bodies from the debris of a destroyed residential building.

Search and rescue operations have been ongoing since the early morning hours on 18 June at a nine-story apartment complex in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district struck by a Russian ballistic missile, according to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service.

Rescue crews worked through the night to extract victims from the rubble. The casualty count increased throughout the day as emergency workers made additional recoveries, with the latest update on death toll being 19 people killed in one single building. Five more civilians died on other sites affected by the Russian attack.

[update] As of 1 p.m. on 18 June, the State Emergency Service reported that the number of killed people retrieved from the destroyed building in Solomianskyi district has risen to 21, moving the total death toll up to 26 people.

Among the victims was a 31-year-old man whose parents had waited all day at the strike site hoping for his rescue. He did not survive.

Rescuers retrieved the body of 31-year-old Dmytro from the rubble, whose parents had been hoping all day to see him alive.

A Russian ballistic missile destroyed an entire entrance of the nine-story building in Solomianskyi district in Kyiv on 17 June.

The attack killed 14… pic.twitter.com/5P3PEDYPLa

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 17, 2025

Dmytro Isaenko was a first-year master’s student at Drahomanov University’s Faculty of Physical Education, Sports and Health, who was studying physical culture and sport with a focus on human health and physical recreation.

“This is the young man whose fate the whole country was following. The one whose parents stood by the ruins of the destroyed house and waited for their son, prayed and did not leave,” the university wrote on its Facebook page. “We all prayed with them. Their photos flew around the world, became a symbol of pain and hope. But no miracle happened.”

According to his social media posts, he enjoyed hiking in the mountains and had tried his hand at stand-up comedy.

The missile strike caused extensive damage to the residential structure, with the projectile penetrating deep enough to break through concrete floors into the basement level. The building housed multiple families across its nine floors.

Beyond the fatalities, the State Emergency Service documented 134 people injured across the capital. Rescue operations remain active in Kyiv as teams continue searching for potential survivors and victims in the damaged structures.

In response to the devastation, Kyiv authorities declared a day of mourning on 18 June, with flags lowered, entertainment events canceled, and the city honoring the victims.

US Embassy in Kyiv announced its participation in the city’s day of mourning for the 26 people killed in Kyiv, including one American citizen. The Embassy also characterized the 17 June Russian strike as contradicting President Trump’s calls to end the war and stop the killing.

US Embassy in Kyiv characterized the 17 June Russian strike on Kyiv as contradicting President Trump's calls to end the war and stop the killing.

The embassy announced its participation in the city's day of mourning for the 24 people killed, including one American citizen. https://t.co/ibSM0VLXSs

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 18, 2025

The attack on Kyiv was part of a broader Russian assault on Ukraine that also targeted Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv oblasts. On the night of 16-17 June, Russian forces launched a total of 440 drones and 32 missiles, including cruise and ballistic types.

In Odesa, the assault killed a 60-year-old woman and injured 17 people, including a pregnant woman and a 17-year-old girl, while also damaging civilian infrastructure including residential buildings, a preschool facility, and garages.

On 18 June, Russia again attacked Ukraine overnight, launching a widespread drone assault that targeted civilian and infrastructure facilities, resulting in deaths, dozens of wounded, and extensive property destruction.

According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian forces deployed 58 drones in their overnight assault. 

Ukrainian air defense systems successfully intercepted 30 of the incoming drones by 08:30 local time. The Air Force reports that defenders used multiple methods to neutralize the threats: 12 drones were destroyed by conventional fire weapons, while 18 were either locationally lost or suppressed through electronic warfare systems.

The remaining 28 drones reached their targets, with Russian weapons striking nine separate locations across the country’s east, south, and north. The primary targets of the assault were Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, areas that have experienced sustained attacks throughout the war.

Zaporizhzhia postal facility destroyed as 13 Russian drones target civilian infrastructure

Regional military administration head Ivan Fedorov reported that 13 drones specifically targeted Zaporizhzhia during the night assault. The attacks caused widespread damage to civilian infrastructure, with apartment building windows shattered and multiple vehicles destroyed by fire. No one was reported killed or injured.

City council secretary Rehina Kharchenko confirmed that a Nova Poshta postal service branch was completely destroyed in the bombardment.

“Instead of the building – burned structures, broken glass, melted plastic,” Kharchenko described the scene.

Ukrainian southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia was under attack overnight.

Aftermath of the Russian assault on 18 June:
Nova Poshta postal facility completely destroyed (video)
47 vehicles burned in open parking area
9 apartment buildings damaged
6 non-residential… pic.twitter.com/8s4xDFCmAE

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 18, 2025

The regional emergency services department documented additional damage, reporting that 47 vehicles burned in an open parking area while fires erupted in three industrial buildings spanning a total of 800 square meters. The assessment revealed damage to nine apartment buildings and six non-residential structures from the drone strikes.

Medical personnel wounded in targeted drone strike on Kherson ambulance

Russian forces conducted extensive shelling operations in southern Kherson Oblast throughout 17 June , resulting in two civilian deaths and 34 wounded across the region, according to Kherson Regional Military Administration head Oleksandr Prokudin.

The attacks affected 36 settlements throughout Kherson Oblast, including the regional capital. Russian forces targeted both social infrastructure and residential neighborhoods, damaging 12 private homes along with outbuildings, garages, and private vehicles.

The attacks extended to medical personnel, with Russian forces using a drone to target an ambulance in Kherson’s Korabelny district around midnight. The regional military administration confirmed that both a paramedic and emergency medical technician sustained injuries in the attack, suffering concussions, blast injuries, and closed traumatic brain injuries.

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Kursk direction. Here, Russian soldiers were paralyzed by an intense Ukrainian bombing campaign, while Ukrainian ground forces closed in on their flanks.

With two companies already encircled and wiped out, Russian soldiers made a desperate plea for reinforcements; however, this relief force walked right into a Ukrainian trap. Ukrainian forces are closing in on Tyotkino with a pincer maneuver threatening full encirclement of the town.

The situation for Russian troops is critical, as up to two companies, around 250 soldiers, are trapped in a shrinking pocket after Ukrainians broke through the town center. Ukrainian drone fire control and constant surveillance make all roads in and out of Tyotkino highly dangerous, blocking Russian evacuation and reinforcements.

Airstrikes devastate Russian sefenses in Kursk oblast

Meanwhile, Ukrainian aircraft relentlessly strike Russian strongpoints, command centers, drone hubs, and troop concentrations with growing intensity. Ukrainian air strikes are proving devastating for the Russians in Kursk, destroying fortified positions and eliminating dozens of Russian troops at once.

Over the past two weeks, at least 15 documented bombings have been conducted against Russian force concentrations in and around Tyotkino alone, with estimated casualties reaching up to 300 soldiers. These targeted strikes have created critical gaps in Russian defenses, further enabling the Ukrainian push.

Despite the worsening conditions, the Russian command had largely neglected the defense of Tyotkino, focusing instead on sustaining their offensive in Sumy Oblast. As a result, only a limited force was left to hold the town, insufficient to stop the Ukrainian advance. Desperate for support, isolated Russian troops are now calling for reinforcements, fearing they may not survive unless help arrives soon.

Ukrainian HIMARS strike destroys Russian convoy in Rylsk

In response to the Ukrainian advance on Tyotkino, Russian forces urgently began deploying reinforcements to prevent a full encirclement. These reinforcements were drawn from reserve units originally amassed for the planned offensive in Sumy. Ukrainian officials had recently warned that Russia was preparing its largest military buildup in six months, including the redeployment of 10 self-propelled artillery units and over 40 trucks loaded with troops and ammunition from Kherson and Crimea toward the Kursk direction.

Unfortunately for Russians, Russian media once again exposed the movements of their column and allowed Ukrainians to increasingly track their movements. This allowed Ukrainians to track Russian force concentrations right to their main base of operations in Rylsk, which had already been struck several times before. They even identified Russians hiding equipment inside a local cultural center before they were combat-ready. Using this intelligence, Ukrainian forces launched a precise HIMARS strike that destroyed the troops and equipment, further delaying reinforcements to Tyotkino.

Failing to reinforce their crumbling defense on the ground, Russian forces deployed fighter jets, hoping to at least stop the Ukrainian air strikes. However, Ukraine was prepared, utilizing the Swedish S-100 Argus AWACS aircraft in conjunction with F-16 fighters. The AWACS has a 400 km detection range, allowing Ukrainians to spot Russian jets deep in Kursk while staying safe inside friendly airspace, beyond Russian air defense range.

Ukrainian F-16s shoot down Russian Su-35 over Kursk

In a one-on-one engagement with the F-16, Russians have the advantage, as their Su-35 jets have more powerful onboard radars with a range of 350 kilometers, compared to the F-16’s 110-kilometer range. However, with AWACS support, Ukrainian F-16s gained extended radar reach and early targeting info, enabling them to launch AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles from their maximum range, shooting down an unsuspecting Russian Su-35 fighter jet.

The Russian jet crashed near the border with Ukraine, while the pilot managed to eject and seek cover in the fields, as the plane itself was visually confirmed to be destroyed by Ukrainian drone surveillance. Subsequently, the shootdown was further verified by a Russian helicopter search and rescue team, which came to evacuate the pilot.

Overall, Ukraine achieved near-total aerial dominance over Tyotkino and surrounding areas in Kursk, leveraging Swedish S-100 Argus AWACS and F-16 jets to detect and shoot down any Russian aircraft attempting to respond.

Russian fighters are warning that Ukrainians are about to gain extremely advantageous defensive positions in Kursk if they capture Tyotkino. They warned that the failure of the Russian command to adequately respond would result in Russian soldiers being forced to once again resort to costly, grinding attritional attacks to take back the lost territories in Kursk.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

A Russian terror attack on 17 June was the largest of the full-scale war, says military expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi. Russia deliberately targeted residential buildings with missiles with cluster munitions to kill as many civilians as possible, Espreso reports. 

The strike came just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin personally called US President Donald Trump to congratulate him on his birthday, and also following Trump’s statements that the war would not have started if Russia hadn’t been excluded from the G8. Ukraine says Putin ordered the attack to portray the leaders of the G7 as weak. He is demonstrating contempt for international peace efforts, above all, those led by the US. 

“Before 17 June, the maximum was 200–300 aerial weapons launched at once. This time, the Russians used nearly 500, most of them kamikaze drones,” Kyrychevskyi explains.

The UN has also noted that this attack on Kyiv may be the deadliest in nearly a year. The main impact hit densely populated neighborhoods, not military targets.

“X-101 missiles with cluster warheads can’t break through fortifications, but they kill people. That’s why they were used deliberately against civilians,” Kyrychevskyi says.

No one believes anymore that the strikes on Ukrainian hospitals and children’s centers are a “mistake.” After the attack on Kyiv’s Ohmatdyt children’s hospital in 2024, Western governments have stopped buying into the narrative of “accidental strikes,” adds the expert. 

Russia began its full-scale terror campaign against the Ukrainian civilian population in 2022, burning 90% of Mariupol and Bakhmut and committing atrocities during the attacks on Bucha in Kyiv Oblast.

“Better to leave than to face the truth.” This is how former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko explains US President Donald Trump’s behavior at the G7 summit on Ukraine, Hromadske reports.

Trump left the 2025 G7 Summit a day earlier than planned. At the event, he suggested that the war in Ukraine might have been avoided if Russia had not been expelled from the G7 in 2014. The next day, Russia launched one of the largest terrorist attacks on Kyiv, killing 14 civilians and striking residential houses.

“He has nothing to say to Zelenskyy. He can’t find a single argument to justify his defense of Putin. This is one of those situations where it’s easier to just leave,” the diplomat explains.

According to Ohryzko, all Ukraine can expect from Trump right now is weapons sales and intelligence sharing. Genuine support must come from Europe, but only if European leaders stop “being afraid of their own shadow.”

What happened in Ukraine today is yet another reproach to our European partners, he says.

“We need French or German fighter jets to shoot down missiles over Ukraine — just like the US shoots down Iranian missiles over Israel,” the diplomat adds.

He emphasizes that such action would not drag NATO into the war, as it would be an act of defense, not aggression.

“There isn’t a Russian sitting on every missile. These are aerial weapons flying into the territory of a country friendly to France, so they should be shot down,” he says.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must raise this issue directly with allies during his visit to Canada, in his view.

“The question must be put bluntly. I believe Zelenskyy has to do it today, in Canada,” he concludes.

On 17 June, Ukraine’s capital and other cities were subjected to sheer terror. Russia deployed its every available aerial weapon to strike Kyiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia, including hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, Kalibrs, cruise and ballistic missiles, and Shahed drones.

Read more: 

• How Ukraine can win, p.4: Just repeat what Putin says
• Russia bombs Kyiv and Iran targets Israel, Trump wants ceasefire — but only from Ukraine

 

Today, there are interesting updates from the Russian Federation. Here, the increasing number of warnings, which have evolved into outright open threats from Russia, has pushed the Kazakhstan government to take decisive steps towards establishing an alliance with Western countries.

From changing key trade partners to seeking new military alliances, Kazakhstan seems determined to ensure its stability in the case of any Russian escalation. Kazakhstan, long considered a critical strategic partner by Russia, is increasingly distancing itself from Moscow’s orbit, underscoring a wider fracturing of Russian alliances in Central Asia.

Russia’s interests in Kazakhstan run deep, with military bases such as the famed Baikonur Cosmodrome, a crucial facility for space launches. Kazakhstan’s geographic proximity to vital Russian military installations and its abundant natural resources, including energy and minerals, have traditionally made it strategically significant to Moscow.

Additionally, the considerable ethnic Russian population of approximately 20%, mostly concentrated near the Kazakh-Russian border, has periodically been leveraged by Russia as justification for exerting more influence or issuing veiled threats to maintain Kazakhstan’s pro-Russian alignment.

Kazakhstan drops pro-Russian defense chief

Russia used the same rhetoric to justify its war in Ukraine, which is causing considerable concern for the Kazakh government. President Vladimir Putin made comments about Kazakhstan’s territorial integrity, suggesting that regional borders were a product of Soviet-era decisions and mentioning that Kazakhstan’s current territorial makeup was not as historically valid as it might seem.

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The recent dismissal of Kazakhstan’s pro-Russian defense minister, Ruslan Zhaksylykov, exemplifies a transition. Known for his overtly pro-Russian stance, he faced domestic criticism due to various scandals, including alleged corruption linked to military procurement, and controversial remarks during meetings with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, when he declared the Russians a brother people, echoing Kremlin narratives used in Ukraine.

His replacement by Dauren Kosanov, former Commander of the Air Defense Forces, signals a significant policy shift. President Tokayev’s swift administrative moves underscore an accelerated shift toward adopting Western military standards, demonstrated further by the country’s increasingly frequent joint exercises with NATO nations such as Türkiye and recent agreements with the United Kingdom.

The signing of a defense cooperation agreement with the UK marks a significant step. It emphasizes peacekeeping training, English language education, and the enrollment of Kazakh officers in British military academies. Though framed as soft power, these steps mirror Britain’s long-term influence strategy in emerging defense partnerships.

Kazakhstan is also already participating in NATO-standard ammunition production projects, further cementing its defense pivot.

Kazakhstan cuts key war exports to Russia

Historically, Kazakhstan, alongside Uzbekistan, has supplied substantial quantities of cotton pulp used to produce nitrocellulose—critical in the manufacture of Russian explosives and gunpowder. These exports, though officially neutral, have supported Russia’s war industry.

Recent indicators, however, suggest Kazakhstan is cutting back these shipments and exploring Western-oriented military supply chains. If fully redirected toward NATO-aligned countries, the move would deal a serious blow to Russia’s ammunition production capability, especially as the Ukraine war drags on.

Russian analysts and political circles have expressed outrage, framing Kazakhstan’s realignment as a betrayal and warning of lost Russian dominance in Central Asian security affairs.

Kazakhstan deepens military ties with the West

Kazakhstan is not only turning militarily, but also economically and diplomatically toward Europe. Talks with the European Union about easing visa rules are ongoing, symbolizing Astana’s long-term intent to integrate more closely with Western institutions.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is working to free itself from energy dependence on Russia. The country is expanding use of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to export oil via Türkiye to Europe. This bypass of Russian territory undermines Moscow’s regional leverage and opens Kazakhstan to broader markets.

Taken together, these moves show Kazakhstan responding decisively to rising threats—choosing independence, diversification, and closer ties to NATO and the EU over continued reliance on an increasingly aggressive neighbor.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

The capital and other Ukrainian cities were subjected to sheer terror. On 17 June, Russia deployed every available aerial weapon to strike Kyiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia, including hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, Kalibrs, cruise and ballistic missiles, and Shahed drones.

Russia’s large-scale attack on Kyiv and Iran’s missile strikes on Israel occurred almost simultaneously, during the night of 16-17 June, BBC reports. Iran, a Russian ally, had previously helped Moscow build production lines for Shaheds to target Ukrainian cities. This time, Russia launched 440 Iranian-like drones in its attack on Ukraine.

The Russian terrorist attack damaged residential buildings and killed 20 civilians. The number of casualties is not final as Ukraine continues to remove rubble from destroyed buildings. 

Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defense has cynically declared that its attacks’ objectives have been achieved. The missile struck so deep it pierced all concrete floors down to the basement.

All nine stories collapsed, leaving behind a two-story concrete ruin.

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy states that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin continues the war simply because he is allowed to.

“It’s a tragedy when the powerful of this world turn a blind eye. It’s the terrorists who should feel the pain, not ordinary, peaceful people,” he emphasize.

At the same time, Poland, which currently chairs the Council of the European Union, has declared its support for Ukraine and expressed condolences to those who became victims of Russia’s carpet bombings. This is the same tactic Moscow used in Chechnya and Syria, and now applied to Kyiv, UkrInform reports. 

Iran mirrors the same strategy, indiscriminately targeting Israeli cities. At the same time, US President Donald Trump has called for a peace agreement with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Yet, when it comes to Iran, he takes a hardline stance: demanding not a ceasefire, but a total abandonment of the nuclear program, per CBS News. 

Warsaw is pushing for the adoption of the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, particularly the introduction of a price cap on Russian oil.

This package specifically targets oil, the fuel source that powers Russia’s war machine. This is critically important for Ukraine, as high oil prices have risen after the start of Israeli strikes on Iran, allowing Russia to earn enormous profits that are immediately funneled into weapons procurement.

Many experts and politicians believe that Moscow could be preparing a staging ground for launching a new war directly in Europe, especially in light of the Trump administration’s isolationist policies.

European leaders have expressed condolences and condemned Russian terror. Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Kyiv remains silent.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces are now operating the MV-25 Oskar, a new fixed-wing loitering munition developed in France, according to KNDS France. The drone with the range of 25 km is part of the Mataris drone family.

Ukrainian military deploys MV-25 Oskar

Ukraine has officially received and deployed the MV-25 Oskar loitering munition, part of the French Mataris drone series. KNDS France, the primary developer, stated the drone is already in operational use and has garnered “excellent feedback” from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Development and international collaboration

KNDS France developed the Mataris line in cooperation with DELAIR and EOS TECHNOLOGIE. The MV-25 Oskar was selected under the French Defense Innovation Agency’s COLIBRI program in 2022 and reached operational deployment in Ukraine within two years. It successfully underwent a test flight with a live warhead in June 2024.

KNDS emphasized that the Mataris systems were created to urgently address a capability gap in the French arsenal.

Renault tapped for Ukrainian drone production near frontline

Features of the Mataris drone range

The Mataris range includes four models with varied capabilities:

• MT-10: dual-rotor drone with a 10 km range
• MX-10 Damocles: quadcopter-wing drone with 10 km range
• MV-25 Oskar: fixed-wing drone with 25 km range
• MV-100 Veloce 330: turbine-powered fixed-wing drone with 100 km range and speeds over 400 km/h

Each system features warheads specifically developed by KNDS Ammo France. The MV-25 Oskar’s deployment marks the first operational use of this mid-range fixed-wing drone in Ukraine.

French military prepares to field parallel drone

Meanwhile, the short-range MX-10 Damocles will enter service with the French Army in July 2025. DELAIR manufactures the quadcopter wing, and KNDS Ammo France produces the fragmentation-incendiary warhead. The drone is designed to neutralize infantry and light armored vehicles.

Next steps for longer-range drones

KNDS has also partnered with EOS TECHNOLOGIE to develop the MV-100 Veloce 330, capable of engaging medium and long-range targets. It features a 2.5 kg anti-armor warhead based on BONUS shell technology. An operational detonation test is scheduled before the end of 2025.

 

The global trend of nuclear disarmament that began after the Cold War is reversing, with nearly all nine nuclear-armed states pursuing intensive modernization programs in 2024, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The historical pattern of gradual dismantlement outpacing new deployments is ending, according to SIRPI. The institute notes that the global nuclear inventory will likely grow in coming years.

“The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end,” said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program. “Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric and the abandonment of arms control agreements.”

China’s nuclear expansion continues at the fastest pace globally. SIPRI estimates China now possesses at least 600 warheads, representing growth of approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023.

The country completed or neared completion of around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos across six regions – three desert areas in northern China and three mountainous zones in the east – by January 2025.

China could potentially match Russian or American ICBM numbers by decade’s end, though SIPRI projects China’s maximum 1,500 warheads by 2035 would still represent only one-third of current Russian and American stockpiles, which control approximately 90% of all nuclear weapons.

China currently holds third place globally in nuclear warhead stockpiles.

Current global nuclear distribution shows Russia leading with 5,459 warheads, followed by the United States with 5,177. Britain possesses 225 warheads, France 290, India 180, Pakistan 170, North Korea 50, and Israel 90.

The United Kingdom plans to increase its warhead ceiling following the 2023 Integrated Review Refresh. The Labour government elected in July 2024 committed to building four new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and delivering nuclear arsenal upgrades, despite facing operational and financial challenges.

France continued developing third-generation submarines and new air-launched cruise missiles in 2024, while upgrading existing systems including improved ballistic missiles with new warhead modifications.

India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal and developed new delivery systems in 2024, according to SIPRI. The country’s new canisterized missiles may carry nuclear warheads during peacetime and potentially multiple warheads per missile once operational. Pakistan also developed new delivery systems and accumulated fissile material, suggesting potential arsenal expansion over the coming decade.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith warned that artificial intelligence and other technologies accelerate crisis decision-making processes, potentially increasing the likelihood of nuclear conflicts arising from miscommunication, misunderstandings, or technical failures.

Smith argued that technological complexity makes determining arms race leadership more elusive than previously. “The old largely numerical formulas of arms control will no longer suffice,” he said.

Russia’s consumption of its pre-war Soviet-era tank stores “appears to be slowing,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as Moscow increasingly shifts to using motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Shift in equipment usage linked to depleted reserves

On 16 June, ISW cited a social media source that analyzes satellite imagery of Russian military depots. This source assessed that, as of a recent but unspecified date, Russia retained 46% of its pre-war tank reserves, 42% of its infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) reserves, and 48% of its armored personnel carrier (APC) reserves.

The data reflects only a modest decline from December 2024, when the same source assessed Russia had 47% of tanks, 52% of IFVs, and 45% of APCs still in storage. The adjusted figures stem from an update made on 15 June, when the source revised Russia’s original pre-war equipment estimates—adding 241 tanks, 174 IFVs, and 687 APCs—affecting percentage shifts accordingly.

The same source reported that most vehicle reserves have been withdrawn from eight key Russian depots. Based on this trend, the source concluded that Russia is likely to exhaust its remaining armored reserves by the end of 2025.

Surge in equipment activity near Finland

Satellite imagery also revealed what the source called a “dramatic” increase in nearly all types of military equipment deployed to a Russian base near Petrozavodsk, in the Republic of Karelia. This location lies approximately 373 kilometers from the Finnish border.

However, the source acknowledged that Russia may still hold additional vehicles in covered storage not visible via satellite surveillance, according to ISW.

The Wall Street Journal reported on 27 April that a senior Finnish military official claimed Russia is sending “almost none” of its newly manufactured tanks to Ukraine. 

Frontline use of motorcycles and buggies grows

ISW noted that the slowing consumption of tank reserves aligns with an observed increase in the use of motorcycles and buggies on the Ukrainian frontline. Since late fall 2024, Russian troops have employed these unarmored civilian vehicles more frequently, especially in contested “gray zones” shaped by Ukrainian and Russian drone activity.

Combat footage reviewed by ISW confirms this shift, with lighter and faster vehicles used to counter the vulnerability of traditional armored units to drone strikes. The think tank previously linked this trend to the heavy armored vehicle losses sustained by Russian forces in late 2023 and 2024.

Tactical gains come at high cost

While these adaptations have allowed Russian troops to make minor tactical advances, ISW emphasized they come at the expense of significant infantry losses. 

“ISW previously assessed that Russian armored vehicle losses are unsustainable and are undermining Russia’s ability to sustain a protracted high-intensity war, but it remains unclear if Russia’s increased reliance on motorcycles and buggies will be sufficient to offset these losses in the medium- to long-term,” the think tank wrote.

The UK’s Defense Ministry reports in its intelligence update a dramatic increase in the number of artificial limbs issued in Russia, suggesting rising battlefield injuries and growing strain on the country’s medical services.

Massive rise in prosthetics issued across Russia

Open-source data cited by the Ministry’s 17 June update points to a 53% increase in artificial limbs issued in Russia in 2024 compared to the previous year. The figures, reportedly sourced from Russia’s Ministry of Labor, indicate that around 152,500 prosthetic limbs were provided to individuals with disabilities last year. Notably, arm prosthetics saw a 75% surge in issuance. During the same period, wheelchair distribution also climbed by 18%, reflecting a broader rise in mobility-related disability cases.

Independent reports expose systemic treatment delays

The update referred to earlier reporting by the independent Russian media outlet Verstka. According to that report, Russian soldiers with amputated limbs had been left waiting for extended periods before receiving necessary prosthetics.

UK intelligence points to medical system strain

UK Defense Intelligence assessed that Russia is “almost certainly failing to provide necessary combat medical treatment at the front line.” The update noted that this failure contributes to “a greater number of serious long-term injuries amongst Russian soldiers.” It also stated that the significant rise in the number of Russian men with disabilities, along with other wounded personnel, “will almost certainly have a detrimental long-term impact on both medical and social services in Russia.”

The Czech Republic has secured funding to continue delivering artillery ammunition to Ukraine into next year, but the future of this initiative may depend on the results of the upcoming parliamentary elections in October.

Czech program closes Ukraine’s artillery gap

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský told Bloomberg in an interview that the Czech-led program to source heavy ammunition for Ukraine, funded by a coalition of 11 countries, has significantly changed the situation on the battlefield. According to Lipavský, Ukrainian forces, who at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 had only one artillery round for every ten fired by Russia, now have one for every two.

The Czech Republic has committed to delivering 1.8 million shells to Ukraine this year under this program. Lipavský described the effort as a “game changer” and emphasized that it plays a vital role as US support weakens and efforts by President Donald Trump to end the war remain stalled.

Political future of the ammunition effort uncertain

Despite the success and international backing of the initiative, Lipavský warned that its continuation hinges on maintaining political support after the Czech parliamentary elections scheduled for 3–4 October 2025.

“We’ve secured funding for next year,” said Lipavský, adding that the Czech Republic has also trained 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers and intends to begin training Ukrainian pilots. “What is absolutely crucial is to preserve political support for the ammunition initiative after Czech parliamentary elections,” he said.

Polls indicate that the current center-right government led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala is trailing behind former Prime Minister and billionaire Andrej Babiš, who is leading ahead of the vote.

Babiš has openly criticized supplying arms to Ukraine and hosting Ukrainian war refugees.

Far-right ties and NATO defense spending on agenda

Lipavský accused Babis of “far-right populism,” referencing the ex-premier’s alignment with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and France’s National Rally in forming a nationalist bloc in the European Parliament last year.

Austria’s energy ministry has denied that the country is considering resuming Russian gas imports after a potential peace in Ukraine, following controversial comments made by state secretary for energy Elisabeth Zehetner, Euroactiv reports.

While attending talks in Luxembourg on the EU’s Russian energy exit plan, Zehetner said on 16 June,

“Once the war is over, this must of course be taken into account,” she said. Reuters also reported that Zehetner also repeated these point to diplomats.

The remark, interpreted by many as a suggestion that Austria could return to importing gas from Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom, caused swift criticism from Austrian lawmakers in Brussels. 

Ministry issues strong denial, calls claim “false”

On 17 June, the Austrian Energy Ministry released a statement denying any such plans, saying,

“The widely circulated claim that Austria wants to resume importing Russian gas after the war, let alone at the present time, is simply false.”

According to Euroactiv, the Ministry emphasized Austria’s alignment with the EU’s energy goals, stating that an EU ban on Russian gas would send “the right signal” to Moscow. However, the statement also noted that energy policy must ensure “affordable energy prices… also in the future.”

Austria’s energy concerns ahead of 2027 deadline

Euroactiv says Vienna has raised specific questions as the European Commission prepares to propose legislation to fully phase out Russian energy by 2027. Among the concerns are whether infrastructure for alternative sources will be ready in time, the potential impact on power and gas prices, and how to ensure future gas supplies are not indirectly linked to Russia.

 

 

 

Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on 17 June that Poland has recorded GPS disruptions over the Baltic Sea, attributing the interference to Russian activities.

Speaking to journalists on 17 June, Kosiniak-Kamysz addressed mounting concerns from drone operators who have reported system failures across northern Poland, according to Polish public broadcaster RMF24.

“According to our sources, this is largely related to the actions of the Russian Federation, including acts of sabotage,” Kosiniak-Kamysz stated during the press conference. “We are monitoring these disruptions. They are recorded over the waters of the Baltic Sea, also by our NATO allies – both in the Baltic countries and in Northern Europe.”

The minister confirmed that Poland is actively responding to the situation. “According to our sources, these actions are related to the activities of the Russian Federation, including sabotage,” he emphasized.

Kosiniak-Kamysz revealed that a special security committee was convened several weeks ago to address the disruptions. General Maciej Klisz, the operational commander, prepared recommendations for military aviation while authorities shared information with civilian aviation, flight control agencies, and the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency.

The defense minister stressed the need for heightened vigilance due to increasing incidents of signal interference.

The Polish announcement follows broader regional concerns about navigation system disruptions. Lithuania and 12 other EU countries recently called on the European Commission to take action regarding Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) communication disruptions across member states.

In their letter to the Commission, the countries characterized the GNSS signal disruptions as systematic, repetitive, and targeted actions by Russian and Belarusian regimes aimed at undermining stable infrastructure operations in the region, particularly communications systems.

Days later, Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa announced that the scope of Russian-blocked GPS signals continues to expand.

Read also:

• Can France keep its word to Ukraine with new CAESAR contracts stacking up?
• North Korea to send 6,000 more troops to Russia under Kursk “restoration” label
• UN criticizes Russia’s proposal to exchange Ukrainian children for prisoners of war

North Korea has decided to send at least 6,000 more of its military personnel to Russia, with the stated purpose of helping restore infrastructure in Kursk Oblast, according to Russian officials. Earlier reports indicated that more than half of an initial 11,000-strong North Korean contingent had been lost during combat operations against Ukrainian forces in the same area.

Deployment plans confirmed by Shoigu

Sergey Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, announced the move following a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Interfax Russia reports that Shoigu specified the alleged composition of the incoming forces:

“Chairman of State Affairs of the D​PRK Kim Jong Un has decided to send one thousand sappers to Russia for demining operations, as well as five thousand military builders for restoring damaged infrastructure.”

Shoigu stated that the deployment followed negotiations aimed at deepening cooperation between the two countries and enhancing North Korea’s support in rebuilding Kursk Oblast.

Shoigu also revealed plans to honor Korean People’s Army (KPA) soldiers who, according to Russian authorities, participated in military actions to “liberate Russian territory.”

“Our leaders decided to immortalize the heroism of Korean People’s Army soldiers who took part in combat operations,” he said.

As part of this initiative, new memorials will be constructed in both Russia and North Korea.

Russia just gave North Korea the blueprint for Iran’s long-range killer drones, Ukraine’s spy chief says

More than half of Pyongyang forces in Kursk lost earlier

The British Defense Ministry stated earlier that over 6,000 troops from the Korean People’s Army were lost during offensive operations against Ukrainian forces in the area. The total KPA presence initially amounted to approximately 11,000 troops, making the losses exceed 50%.

Last June, Russia and North Korea signed a Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in Pyongyang.

Related:

• UK intel: North Korea sent 11,000 troops to help Russia in Kursk—over half never came back
• Half of North Korea’s first missile shipment to Russia exploded in mid-air — now they strike Ukrainian targets with deadly precision
• Russia just gave North Korea the blueprint for Iran’s long-range killer drones, Ukraine’s spy chief says
• Russia receives 140 mm and 60 mm mortars from North Korea
• Kim Jong Un promises full support for Russia’s Ukraine war, says North Korea
• North Korea’s troops, shells, missiles aided Russia in war against Ukraine, breaching UN sanctions, report confirms
• North Korea supplied Russia with 9 mn rounds of ammunition and 100 ballistic missiles since 2023

The United Nations condemned Russia’s proposal to exchange abducted Ukrainian children for Russian prisoners of war, with a senior UN official stating that civilians should not be used as bargaining chips.

“Obviously, all innocent civilians, including innocent children, should not be used as bargaining chips,” Deputy Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General Farhan Haq told Ukrinform when commenting on the Russian proposal revealed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Haq emphasized that this principle applies to conflicts worldwide. The UN has repeatedly stressed that deportation of children during conflict constitutes a violation of international humanitarian law.

President Zelenskyy disclosed that Russians had proposed exchanging Ukrainian children for their military prisoners. The Ukrainian leader characterized the occupiers’ proposal as “beyond understanding and beyond the bounds of international law.”

The issue gained prominence during negotiations in Istanbul, where the Russian delegation acknowledged that Russia had abducted Ukrainian children, according to Zelenskyy’s 2 June statement.

First Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Kislytsia provided details of the negotiations on 5 June, reporting that Russian delegation head Vladimir Medinsky cynically stated during talks that Russia “has a couple of dozen, maybe a hundred Ukrainian children.” The same Putin associate confirmed receiving from Ukraine a list of 339 abducted children, Kislytsia said.

Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets reports that as of October 2024, Russian forces have abducted more than 20,000 children from Ukraine. An additional 1.5 million children could potentially be deported, according to his data.

Read also:

• Russian strike shuts down Fahrenheit military clothing factory in Kyiv: all orders cancelled
• Trump quietly scraps internal Russia pressure task force, Reuters sources say
• Can France keep its word to Ukraine with new CAESAR contracts stacking up?

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) counterintelligence detained a 44-year-old Kyiv resident suspected of collaborating with Russian military intelligence and directing missile and drone attacks against the Kyiv region, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General.

The suspect worked with the “Senezh” special purpose center of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, according to the investigation. Russian military intelligence first noticed him during a “Roulette” chat broadcast where he expressed pro-Russian views.

After recruitment, the man began tracking locations of local enterprises that he believed could be involved in producing military equipment for Ukraine’s Defense Forces. The detained suspect planned to use the collected data to prepare strikes on the capital region while bypassing Ukrainian air defense systems, according to investigators.

The Security Service documented the suspect’s activities and implemented comprehensive measures to protect Ukrainian enterprises before arresting him at his residence in Kyiv.

Authorities seized two phones from the detained man containing photos of Ukrainian facilities with Google Maps coordinates attached.

The man has been charged with high treason under martial law conditions. He faces life imprisonment with property confiscation.

The detention represents the latest in a series of recent SBU operations against alleged Russian agents. On 6 June, the SBU reported detaining men who prepared terrorist attacks in Dnipro and Lviv oblast on Russia’s orders. On 9 June, authorities arrested a Kyiv resident accused of identifying air defense positions in the capital and coordinating strikes. On 11 June, a 57-year-old unemployed local resident was detained in Lviv Oblast on suspicion of providing Russian special services with data about airfield operations and preparing new attacks on the oblast.

Read also:

• Russia kills 14, injures 114 with missiles and drones in Kyiv as G7 leaders meet in Canada and Trump rejects sanctions (updated)
• Trump quietly scraps internal Russia pressure task force, Reuters sources say
• Trump quietly scraps internal Russia pressure task force, Reuters sources say

The Fahrenheit clothing company suspended operations indefinitely after Russian forces damaged its production facility during a massive overnight attack on Kyiv on 17 June. The strike hit the factory where the company manufactures clothing and underwear for civilians and military personnel.

“We are forced to report that due to another barbaric attack by Russia, our production was damaged,” the company announced on Facebook. “The blow fell on the place where we have been creating clothes for everyone for years, including for our military.”

The attack forced Fahrenheit to cancel all current orders and halt acceptance of new ones for an indefinite period, according to the company’s statement.

The June 17 strike was part of what authorities called “one of the most extensive bombardments in recent months,” killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens more across Ukraine. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the attack involved more than 440 drones and 32 missiles launched overnight, targeting multiple oblasts including Kyiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv oblasts.

Kyiv authorities confirmed 14 fatalities and more than 100 injuries in the capital by 9:30 am. In Odesa, regional administration reported one person killed and 17 injured during the bombardment.

The attack on Fahrenheit represents another blow to Ukrainian businesses supporting the war effort. The company’s facility produced essential clothing items for the Armed Forces of Ukraine alongside civilian garments.

Read also:

• Can France keep its word to Ukraine with new CAESAR contracts stacking up?
• Trump delays backing new Russia sanctions over claimed US economic burden and peace deal hopes as Moscow continues to bomb Ukraine
• Russia targeted Ukraine with 440 drones and 32 missiles in deadly overnight attack, Ukrainian Air Force says

In recent weeks, the Trump administration has quietly disbanded a working group formed to develop strategies for pressuring Russia into peace talks with Ukraine, three US officials told Reuters. The move follows a suspension of a separate initiative countering Russian disinformation. Trump’s broader peacemaking efforts, including in the Middle East, have also struggled in recent months.

Group lost momentum amid Trump’s waning interest

Set up earlier this spring, the inter-agency group included officials from the National Security Council (NSC), State Department, Treasury, Pentagon, and intelligence community. It lost relevance by May as Trump appeared increasingly uninterested in tougher action against Moscow.

“The effort […] lost steam toward the end because the president wasn’t there. Instead of doing more, maybe he wanted to do less,” one official said.

Officials said the group explored ways to pressure post-Soviet states to restrict trade with Russia, including incentives for Kazakhstan to curb sanctions evasion. However, no policies were enacted before the group’s shutdown.

Trump delays backing new Russia sanctions over claimed US economic burden and peace deal hopes as Moscow continues to bomb Ukraine

NSC purges sealed the group’s fate

Roughly three weeks ago, most members of the NSC’s Ukraine team were dismissed, including top Europe-Russia adviser Andrew Peek. The purge made it nearly impossible to continue the effort.

The existence of the group had not been publicly known. Its end raises concerns among European allies, especially ahead of an upcoming NATO summit, over Trump’s mixed signals on supporting Ukraine.

Shift in tone despite earlier frustration with Russia

The group was formed as Trump publicly expressed anger at Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying in March he was “pissed off” over attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy. Still, Trump has since suggested the US might abandon peace efforts altogether.

 

 

Ukraine has launched its first concrete action under a high-profile minerals agreement with the United States, moving to open a major lithium deposit to private investment — a step aimed at proving to the Trump administration that the deal can yield results, NYT says.

Ukraine begins process to open Dobra lithium field

On 16 June 2025, Ukrainian authorities approved initial measures to allow companies to bid for mining rights at the Dobra lithium field in central Ukraine. According to two government officials who spoke to The New York Times on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, the government has agreed to begin drafting recommendations to open bidding.

The Dobra site is one of Ukraine’s largest lithium deposits — a key mineral in electric battery production. The move marks the first practical step under the broader minerals deal signed in April 2025 between Kyiv and Washington.

Trump delays backing new Russia sanctions over claimed US economic burden and peace deal hopes as Moscow continues to bomb Ukraine

Joint fund and US investor interest

The agreement stipulates that 50% of revenues generated from mineral extraction would go into a joint US-Ukraine investment fund, with the remainder also benefiting the US through shared returns. Former President Donald Trump has publicly framed this arrangement as partial repayment for previous American aid to Ukraine.

One of the leading investor groups expected to bid is a consortium that includes TechMet — an energy firm partially owned by the US government — and Ronald S. Lauder, a billionaire and close associate of Trump. According to The New York Times, this group has long expressed interest in the Dobra site and had urged President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in late 2023 to open it for development.

Putin calls to congratulate Trump on his birthday — then launches hypersonic missiles on small Ukrainian city in one of largest attacks of war

US Treasury and Ukrainian economy ministers engaged in deal talks

Earlier this month, a Ukrainian delegation led by Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko traveled to Washington to present mineral exploitation projects involving lithium, titanium, and graphite. After meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Svyrydenko said, “These are exactly the kinds of strategic initiatives where US-Ukraine cooperation can deliver mutual benefit.”

The meeting followed the April 2025 signing of the minerals agreement, which was attended by Svyrydenko and Bessent. The Ukrainian government distributed a photo of the event via Agence France-Presse showing both officials signing documents in Washington.

Despite this progress, industry analysts warn that any significant output or revenue from the minerals pact could take a decade or more.

FT: Trump’s Ukraine minerals deal expected to yield no output before 2035

Expanding the scope: Ukraine’s defense industry as an investment option

In addition to minerals, Ukraine’s government is seeking to direct part of the joint investment fund toward its defense sector. Economy Minister Svyrydenko has proposed using future revenues to support domestic arms manufacturing, citing the country’s ability to produce drones, artillery, and shells at far lower costs than the US or EU.

 

 

Uttering one word, one man could end Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. 

With a single word, he could halt the fighting that, in 40 bloody months, has killed or maimed some 1,000,000 Russians and nearly half a million Ukrainians. He could ease the nuclear fears the conflict has stoked. He could relieve the strain on the Russian and Ukrainian economies—and allow the devastated landscape in eastern and southern Ukraine to finally begin healing.

That word is “stop.” And the only man who can say it is the Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin, on whose orders 200,000 Russian troops further invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. 

What will it take for Putin to say the word? That question, more than any other, informs Ukraine’s theory of victory as the wider war grinds into its fourth year and both sides show signs of exhaustion. Ukraine could defeat Russia militarily, effectively giving Putin no choice but to say stop—lest the Ukrainian army destroy whatever forces Russia might still have left following decisive losses in Ukraine. 

Or Russia could defeat Ukraine militarily, satisfying Putin’s original conditions for victory. Putin could say stop because he’s gotten everything he ever wanted in Ukraine.

But there’s a third and arguably likelier outcome. Putin could order his armies to stand down not because they’ve actually won, but because Putin says they’ve won.

Dictators, including elected ones such as Putin, tend to be political survivalists—and Putin’s sense of self-preservation could lead him to declare victory in Ukraine if and when he begins to sense he’s losing … and losing domestic political support as his armies falter.

Declaring victory without winning

This sort of thing happens all the time. Palestinian military group Hamas routinely declares victory in its various clashes with Israel, even when the outcomes of the conflicts are often devastating to the group. Hamas has repeatedly declared victory in the bloody war instigated by the group’s brutal cross-border raids into southern Israel in October 2023—despite Israeli retaliation that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinian fighters and civilians and rendered Gaza all but uninhabitable. 

“The Hamas claim of victory … has further goals,” Palestinian writer Aws Abu Ata noted. “The movement seeks to form a safety belt for itself to avoid being held accountable for the very crises it has provoked.”

As long as a critical mass of Hamas supporters believe, despite their suffering, that they and the militant group are the victors, the Palestinian liberation movement may endure in some form.

Putin could pursue a similar survival strategy. He could simply declare victory in Ukraine, and then attempt to convince his base—Russian elites and tens of millions of everyday Russians—that the victory is legitimate and not the desperate projection of an imperiled dictator.

And yes, Putin is imperiled. Just two years ago, the Wagner Group—the notorious Russian mercenary company led by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin—staged an uprising against Putin’s regime. Thousands of Wagner troops marched on Moscow. The uprising ended when Prigozhin unwisely agreed to meet Putin in Moscow, only to perish when his plane fell to the ground in flames, likely shot down. 

Meanwhile in Ukraine, increasingly vehicle-starved Russian field armies are losing more than a thousand troops a day in grinding assaults on Ukrainian defenses—and gaining just a few hundred square kilometers a month in exchange for the massive bloodletting, in a country with a total area of 603,000 square kilometers.

The costly Russian attacks are sustainable because the Kremlin recruits slightly more troops than it loses every month. But that robust recruitment is possible for just two reasons. “Driven by high sign-on bonuses and speculation that the war will soon be over, more than 1,000 men join the Russian military every day,” noted Janis Kluge, deputy head of the Eastern Europe & Eurasia Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. 

The bonuses and other wartime spending are eating the Russian economy.

“All told, Russia’s defense budget will account for 40% of all government expenditures, which is at its highest level since the Cold War,” Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of US Army forces in Europe, told US lawmakers on 3 April.

By comparison, the US federal government spends 13% of its budget on the military.

This is unsustainable. As the cost of servicing a ballooning debt crowds out other spending priorities, Putin has reportedly been casting around for conflict off-ramps. However and whenever Putin chooses to end the war, declaring victory for Russia is surely part of the exit strategy.

The US may give Putin the cover he needs

Talk is easy, of course. Real persuasion could be hard.

“Putin has laid out his maximal goals for this conflict,” explained Thomas Graham, a former US National Security Council staffer who is currently a fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City. “At the moment, he needs to make a credible claim of success on each of these goals to declare victory—and that means no NATO membership for Ukraine, international recognition of the land he has seized as Russian, the demilitarization and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, and the lifting of Western sanctions.”   

“He will not achieve these goals in a negotiated settlement,” Graham asserted.

That’s almost certainly true if the settlement is with Ukraine. But US President Donald Trump, who frequently apes Russian propaganda and has described Putin as strong and smart, has sent his envoys to speak directly with their Russian counterparts in an effort to negotiate an end to the war on terms that favor Russia. 

Trump could lend Putin the domestic political cover Putin needs to sell a unilateral declaration of victory in Ukraine—by giving Russia things Ukraine and Ukraine’s European allies won’t give it. 

What a US-brokered deal could mean for Ukraine

Trump could officially endorse Russian control over occupied territories. Indeed, the White House has already offered to recognize Crimea as part of  Russia. And since the admission of a new member state to NATO requires the consent of all current members, the United States alone could block any Ukrainian bid to join the alliance. 

The Trump administration could also lift US sanctions on Russia—and clearly wants to. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said an end to the war would be “the key that unlocks the door” for “potentially historic economic partnerships” between the United States and Russia. 

“The Russian president is in the extraordinary position where he sees the opportunity to entrust his American colleague with imposing a Russian-designed peace settlement on Ukraine,” observed John Lough, a fellow with Chatham House, a London think tank.

The stated Russian war objectives Washington can’t just deliver to Moscow are the most esoteric—and the easiest for Putin to simply claim: the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of the Ukrainian armed forces. 

Russia has killed or wounded hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops since February 2022: does that qualify as “demilitarization”? There are very few actual Nazis in the Ukrainian military, but there are surely thousands of right-wing Ukrainian nationalists among Ukraine’s war dead: is that “denazification”?

When both sides claim victory, the war may end

It’s evident Putin is already laying the rhetorical groundwork for claiming Russia has demilitarized and denazified Ukraine. Putin believes key war goals have been achieved, a source close to the Kremlin told Reuters in January.

As Russian casualties reached one million, Russia’s stocks of armored vehicles run low and borrowing costs continue to climb in the sanctions-squeezed, war-strained Russian economy, the temptation for Putin to declare victory and halt major offensive action—at least for a while—should only increase. Especially given how little ground Russian forces have gained in Ukraine since their retreat from Kyiv Oblast in the spring of 2022.

Incredibly, Ukraine could also claim it has won.

“In the end, both sides may claim some form of victory,” explained Tatarigami, the founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight analysis group.

“Russia by pointing to territorial gains; and Ukraine by claiming its success in preventing Russia from achieving its stated strategic objectives.”

Slovenia’s Ministry of Defense announced on 13 June it had placed an order for 12 CAESAR 6×6 wheeled self-propelled howitzers from France, with deliveries set to begin in 2028. Army Recognition reported the deal, which places Slovenia among several nations waiting for delivery of the in-demand French artillery systems. Defense Express says the order appears at odds with France’s earlier commitment to send all CAESARs produced in 2025 to Ukraine.

France promised 2025-made CAESARs to Ukraine

Defense Express notes that the new Slovenian contract raises questions about how France will manage competing obligations. In May 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron committed to supplying Ukraine with all CAESAR howitzers produced during the year. However, deliveries to Slovenia indicate that not all units manufactured in 2025 may be reserved for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Production rate and delivery timeline reshaped by high demand

France has recently accelerated its production rate for the CAESAR system. As of November 2024, the production cycle had been reduced from 30 months to 15, with monthly output reaching up to 12 units. This shift means that artillery systems promised for 2025 delivery entered production no earlier than January 2024 and will be completed by late 2026.

Ukrainian gunners praise CAESAR howitzers’ precision and mobility

Domestic and export contracts filling the production queue

France’s defense industry is facing a large backlog, according to Defense Express. Beyond Slovenia, existing confirmed export contracts include 18 units for Lithuania and 9 for Belgium. Additional reports mention potential orders from Croatia and Armenia, though unit numbers remain undisclosed.

Le Monde: 90% of Caesar cannon barrels produced by KNDS are being sent to Ukraine

The production schedule is also impacted by France’s own military needs. In February 2024, the French Ministry of Armed Forces placed an order for 109 CAESAR Mk2 units—the largest domestic acquisition for the system to date.

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US President Donald Trump has delayed support for a new round of sanctions against Russia, saying they are too costly for the United States and that he wants to see if a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv can be reached first. His position has caused a rift with other G7 leaders, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, who are pushing ahead with new punitive measures.

Trump says sanctions are expensive and not one-sided

According to BBC and Suspilne, Trump told journalists during the G7 summit in Canada that he was not ready to support additional sanctions. When asked why the US was not taking unilateral action, Trump said it is because he was “waiting to see whether or not a deal” could be agreed between Ukraine and Russia.

He also mentioned the financial burden of sanctions on the US economy as another excuse. Trump said that “sanctions cost [the US] a lot of money” for the US. “You’re talking about billions and billions of dollars. Sanctions are not that easy. It’s not just a one-way street,” he claimed.

Russia kills 14, injures 114 with missiles and drones in Kyiv as G7 leaders meet in Canada and Trump rejects sanctions (updated)

Politico also reported Trump’s earlier remarks at the summit, where he said Europeans should “do it first” and repeated concerns over the economic cost.

The US President left the summit early on 16 June, ahead of a joint G7 session with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy scheduled for 17 June.

Starmer and Macron back tougher measures despite US hesitation

In contrast to Trump’s position, other G7 leaders continued to coordinate new sanctions. BBC reported that the UK would announce a new sanctions package targeting Russia’s military-industrial complex. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the measures were being finalized alongside other G7 partners and would “squeeze Russia’s energy revenues and reduce the funds they are able to pour into their illegal war.”

“The fact is, Russia doesn’t hold all the cards,” Starmer said.

Trump again blames both Ukraine and Russia for failing to reach a peace deal

Politico reported that French President Emmanuel Macron remained hopeful about potential US involvement. Macron said he had discussed the matter privately with Trump, who, according to Macron, responded “quite positively.” Macron said Trump indicated he would not currently block new US sanctions proposed by Republican lawmakers.

“This is very good news for me,” Macron said.

Sanctions talks focus on oil revenue and financial pressure

The discussions among G7 leaders also included a reassessment of the price cap on Russian crude oil, which had been set at $60 per barrel in December 2022. 

The European Commission is proposing to cut the cap to $45 per barrel, while Ukraine wants a more drastic cut to $30. The UK’s new sanctions are expected to align with the goal of weakening Russia’s energy revenue, which continues to finance its invasion of Ukraine.

Putin counting on US fatigue to win what his army cannot, WP op-ed argues

The BBC also reported that Ukraine’s Western partners are seeking a stronger package of economic penalties, with the European Commission’s 18th sanctions package proposing restrictions on Russia’s energy sector, banking system, and transactions related to the Nord Stream project.

On 17 June, Ukraine’s Air Force reported that its defense forces neutralized 428 out of 472 Russian airborne threats launched during a large-scale night assault that began at 20:00 on 16 June. The full breakdown of the attack was published by the Air Force and included drones, cruise missiles, aeroballistic missiles, and guided aerial weapons.

Earlier, local authorities reported that the attack killed 14 people and injured 104 in Kyiv, while one civilian was reported dead and 17 injured in Odesa.

Kyiv identified as the main target

According to the Air Force, the primary direction of the strike was Kyiv. Defense efforts were carried out by aviation units, anti-aircraft missile forces, mobile fire groups, electronic warfare (EW) units, and unmanned systems belonging to Ukraine’s defense forces.

Russia kills 14, injures 100+ with missiles and drones in Kyiv as G7 leaders meet in Canada and Trump rejects sanctions

Weapons used in the attack

The Air Force detailed that Russia launched 472 air attack assets during the night:

• 440 drones, including Shahed one-way attack drones and decoy UAVs, launched from Kursk, Shatalovo, Oryol, Bryansk, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia. Approximately 280 of these were Shahed drones.
• 2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles launched from the airspace over Tambov Oblast.
• 16 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from strategic aviation aircraft over Saratov Oblast.
• 4 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea.
• 9 Kh-59/69 guided missiles launched from tactical aircraft over Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts.
• 1 Kh-31P anti-radar missile.

Interception results and methods

Of the 472 airborne threats:

• 262 were destroyed using firepower.
• 166 were either jammed or lost radar contact (“disappeared from radars”).

Intercepted weapons reportedly included:

• 239 Shahed and similar drones shot down by fire, and 163 “locationally lost” or jammed.
• 2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles (1 “locationally lost”).
• 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
• 8 Kh-59/69 guided missiles (1 “locationally lost”).
• 1 Kh-31P anti-radar missile (“locationally lost”).

The Air Force’s term “locationally lost” refers to aerial targets that disappeared from radar tracking, likely having crashed before reaching their intended targets.

The data suggests that at least 38 drones and six missiles may have reached their intended targets.

Damage and impact on the ground

The Air Force recorded impacts in 10 locations where enemy air weapons struck. In addition, debris from intercepted threats fell in 34 other locations.