Elon Musk approached US President Donald Trump with a proposal to limit the speed of Starlink satellite communications in Ukraine, disrupting Kyiv’s ability to counter Russian drone attacks, The Telegraph reported on 16 October, citing four sources familiar with the discussions.

The restrictions had immediate consequences for Ukraine’s defenses, forcing some drone missions against Russian positions to be called off and threatening the ability to intercept Russian jet-powered drones as they targeted Ukrainian cities at the time.

According to The Telegraph, Trump agreed with Musk’s suggestion, paving the way for the Pentagon to impose restrictions on Starshield, the military-grade version of SpaceX’s satellite network used by Ukrainian forces.

The report contradicts Musk’s public claim that the US military and ultimately Trump were responsible for deciding any limits on the system. However, Trump denied that either he or Musk was responsible for Ukraine losing access, while an anonymous US official told AFP that the president had not requested the reduction in service.

The reported restrictions come amid tensions between Washington and Kyiv over Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. The episode has raised concerns about Ukraine’s dependence on privately controlled communications infrastructure and the risk that changes to US support could weaken its battlefield capabilities.

Starshield restrictions hampered Ukraine’s drone defenses

Starshield is the military-grade version of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet network. It allows Ukrainian drone operators to maintain communications with aircraft moving at high speeds, supporting both defensive interception missions and strikes against Russian targets.

The speed limit imposed on Ukrainian drones using Starshield was around 160 kph, making it difficult for them to intercept Russian jet-powered drones and missiles traveling at roughly twice that speed.

According to The Telegraph, a senior source said Musk had become concerned about potential backlash from European consumers following the restrictions. A high-ranking European official and two Ukrainian sources reportedly corroborated the account that Musk and Trump were both involved in the decision.

The Pentagon has not publicly explained the restrictions. The report’s account also remains disputed: Trump said on 16 October that he did not believe either he or Musk was responsible for Ukraine losing access, while an anonymous US official cited by AFP said the president had not requested the reduction.

Ukraine says Starshield capabilities are being restored

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 16 October that restrictions on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite communications system had disrupted several military operations, including efforts to intercept Russian jet-powered Geran drones attacking Ukrainian cities.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine did not use Starlink to support attacks inside Russia, but relied on the system to intercept drones targeting civilians, conduct mid-range strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Ukrainian territory, and deliver food and water to frontline troops using drones.

“When the speed was reduced, we were unable to intercept a certain number of jet-powered ‘shaheds,’ [Gerans - ed.]” Zelenskyy wrote on X, adding that Ukrainian forces had lost the ability to carry out some operations while the restrictions were in place.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s Defense Ministry was in contact with partners and had received signals from the White House that the capabilities would be restored. However, he stressed that speeds had not yet returned to their previous levels, although restoration was underway.

We don’t use Starlink for our responses inside Russia. We use Starlink to intercept jet-powered “shaheds” that attack our civilians and kill families.

Starlink wasn’t turned off – its speed was reduced. And when the speed was reduced, we were unable to intercept a certain number…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 16, 2026

Europe warns against dependence on Musk’s network

The latest episode has renewed European concerns about relying on Musk and SpaceX for critical communications infrastructure. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski warned Musk on social media that European customers were watching his actions, The Telegraph reported.

The European Union is developing its own satellite communications system, IRIS², intended to provide an alternative to Starlink, according to The Telegraph. The system is planned to become operational by 2030, leaving Ukraine and European governments dependent on existing providers in the meantime.

The report adds to concerns that decisions made in Washington or by private technology providers could directly affect Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian attacks.

Belgium plans to deliver 10 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of 2026, Prime Minister Bart De Wever announced on 16 October, raising the expected number from three amid delays in transferring the aircraft.

The expanded commitment comes as Ukraine faces sustained Russian drone and missile attacks and needs additional combat aircraft to strengthen its air defenses. 

De Wever made the announcement at a press conference in Brussels alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Anadolu Agency reported. He said Belgium’s deliveries had fallen behind schedule because its new US-made F-35 fighter jets arrived later than expected.

Belgium also discussed supplying more ammunition for Ukraine’s F-16s.

F-16 deliveries delayed by F-35 schedule

“We will deliver 10 this year,” De Wever said, explaining that delays in receiving Belgium’s F-35s had held up the transfer of its F-16s. The new aircraft are now beginning to arrive, allowing Belgium to move forward with deliveries to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy confirmed that Kyiv expects additional F-16s from Belgium by the end of the year and thanked Brussels for the agreement.

The announcement marks an increase from Belgium’s previously reported plan to send three F-16s to Ukraine by the end of 2026. The new figure would more than triple the number expected under that earlier commitment.

F-16s to help counter Russian jet-powered drones

De Wever said Ukraine urgently needs operational fighter jets and described the F-16 as one of the few weapons capable of effectively countering Russian jet-powered drones.

The aircraft can also intercept cruise missiles and other aerial targets, while carrying out electronic warfare and combat missions. Ukraine received its first F-16s in 2024 after allies agreed to supply the aircraft and train Ukrainian pilots. 

Belgium discusses ammunition and financial support

Zelenskyy and De Wever also discussed supplying additional ammunition for Ukraine’s F-16s, including 20 mm rounds produced by Belgian defense company FN Herstal.

The leaders also reportedly discussed Ukraine’s financial needs, though neither provided details on potential next steps. Belgium remains at the center of discussions over frozen Russian assets, as Brussels hosts Euroclear, which holds a large share of the immobilized funds.

Ukraine has received undisclosed assistance from Poland as it struggles to defend against increasingly intense Russian drone and missile attacks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted during a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Brussels on 15 October, Radio Svoboda reported.

Ukraine’s air defense needs are greater than at any point since 2022, as intensified Russian drone and missile attacks strain existing systems and expose shortages of interceptor missiles. With US support increasingly uncertain amid tensions between Kyiv and Washington, European military aid is becoming more critical to Ukraine’s ability to defend its cities and infrastructure.

Zelenskyy thanked Warsaw for its support, suggesting that some assistance had to remain confidential. He also specifically mentioned 20 mm ammunition, which Ukraine needs to defend its cities against Russian attacks.

“Sometimes this has to stay between the two of us,” Zelenskyy said, thanking Tusk for the aid.

European support increasingly important amid US rift

Ukraine is facing mounting pressure on its air defenses as Russia increases the scale of its aerial attacks. Ukrainian forces are also struggling with shortages of interceptor missiles, particularly Patriot missiles needed to counter Russian ballistic strikes, leaving the country vulnerable to further attacks.

The need for additional support comes amid growing uncertainty over US assistance under President Donald Trump. Washington has taken steps that have strained ties with Kyiv, including easing some restrictions on Russian fuel and pressing for an energy ceasefire that Ukraine says Russia has continued to violate. 

Recent disruptions to US-linked intelligence and satellite support have also raised concerns about Ukraine's ability to detect and counter Russian attacks.

As uncertainty over Washington's role grows, European military assistance is becoming increasingly important for Ukraine's defense.

Defense cooperation continues despite political tensions

Tusk reaffirmed Poland's commitment to supporting Ukraine, saying Kyiv could count on Poland and the European Union. He also opposed easing EU sanctions against Russia, arguing that Europe should not take steps that help Moscow finance its war.

The meeting also came amid strained relations between Kyiv and Warsaw over historical disputes. However, Poland's government has maintained that these disagreements should not undermine military support for Ukraine, whose ability to resist Russian aggression is closely tied to Poland's own security.

Ukraine has been elected to the UN Human Rights Council for the 2027–2029 term, receiving support from 162 UN member states in a vote by the UN General Assembly on 13 October, Ukraine’s Permanent Mission to the UN said.

The three-year term gives Ukraine an opportunity to shape international human rights discussions while drawing attention to abuses stemming from Russia’s war. Kyiv says it will work with partners to strengthen accountability mechanisms and protect civilians affected by conflict.

Ukraine’s Permanent Mission to the UN called the result a major diplomatic achievement, saying its team had spent more than a year securing support for the candidacy.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Kyiv would use its membership to push for accountability for Russian human rights violations, support international investigations, and advocate for prisoners of war and civilians unlawfully detained by Russia.

Ukraine will also continue efforts to secure the return of Ukrainian children deported or forcibly transferred by Russia, Sybiha said.

Ukraine to focus on accountability for Russian violations

Ukraine’s election comes as Russia continues its full-scale war against the country, which has brought grave violations of human rights and international humanitarian law consistently since 2022.

As a council member, Ukraine plans to work with international partners to strengthen mechanisms for documenting and investigating abuses, protect human dignity, and reinforce international human rights institutions, Sybiha said.

Ukraine has been elected to the UN Human Rights Council for 2027-2029. I thank all UN Member States that supported Ukraine’s candidacy.

Ukraine joins the Council while continuing to defend its people and its sovereignty against Russia’s ongoing aggression, which has brought…

— Andrii Sybiha (@andrii_sybiha) October 13, 2026

Ukraine is returning to the council after previously serving multiple terms, most recently from 2021 to 2023. It was among the council’s founding members when the body was established in 2006.

Russia was suspended from the UN Human Rights Council in April 2022 following reports of gross and systematic human rights violations during its war against Ukraine. Moscow subsequently announced it was withdrawing from the council.

15 countries elected to the council

Alongside Ukraine, the General Assembly elected Brazil, Ghana, the Dominican Republic, Zambia, Ireland, Jordan, Kuwait, Moldova, Nepal, Nigeria, Germany, Uruguay, and Japan to the Human Rights Council.

The 47-member council is the UN’s principal intergovernmental body responsible for promoting and protecting human rights worldwide. Members serve three-year terms.

Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen has called on the European Union to stop issuing tourist visas to Russian citizens until Russia ends its war against Ukraine, urging the bloc to adopt a unified policy. Her call comes as the EU discusses broader restrictions on Russian diplomats, tourists, and former combatants.

Russia has intensified its hybrid campaign across Europe in recent months, with suspected sabotage, arson attacks, and other covert operations targeting infrastructure and undermining security. European officials have increasingly called for a coordinated response, arguing that tighter controls on Russian diplomats, travel, and former combatants could help reduce security risks and limit opportunities for Russian intelligence operations.

In a statement published on 12 October, Finland’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs said Valtonen was calling on the European Commission to introduce stricter guidelines for processing Russian visa applications and propose changes to EU legislation needed to implement a complete ban on tourist visas.

“As long as Russia continues its invasion, Russian citizens should not be issued tourist visas,” Valtonen said. “It is not right that Russians can travel to Europe to enjoy the way of life and freedoms here while their country bombs the homes of Ukrainians.”

Finland banned visas for non-essential travel by Russian citizens in 2022. Valtonen said the same restriction should now be adopted at the EU level.

The Finnish minister has invited other EU member states to join a joint letter to the European Commission. Beyond a complete ban on tourist visas, the letter proposes barring Schengen visas for people in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, restricting visas for Russian athletes, and enforcing an EU-agreed visa ban on former Russian combatants.

We must stop issuing tourist visas for Russian citizens across the EU.

I have invited other EU Member States to join a letter addressed to the European Commission. I am calling for a complete EU ban on Russian tourist visas for as long as Russia continues its war of aggression.…

— Elina Valtonen (@elinavaltonen) October 12, 2026

EU considers wider restrictions on Russians

The proposal comes as EU foreign ministers discuss additional measures to counter Russian hybrid threats. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said after a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers in Luxembourg on 12 October that the EU was considering reducing the number of tourist visas issued to Russians, restricting Russian diplomats’ movements within the bloc, and accelerating entry bans for former Russian combatants, Radio Svoboda reported.

Kallas said the EU needed a comprehensive response to Russian hybrid threats, including new sanctions, stronger enforcement of existing restrictions, action against Russia’s shadow fleet, accountability for hybrid attacks, and improved intelligence sharing.

One proposal would require Russian diplomats to obtain advance permission before traveling to other EU member states, rather than simply notifying authorities of their trips.

Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Bosacki said tighter rules were necessary because some acts of sabotage and subversion were coordinated, at least in part, through Russian diplomatic missions.

Kallas said the European External Action Service and European Commission would also prepare proposals for further isolating Russia in international sport. She argued that sport and culture should not be used to whitewash Russian aggression.

EU divided over tourist visa restrictions

Several EU countries have pushed to reduce tourist visas for Russian citizens. In June, a group of member states jointly called for fewer visas, according to DW. The Finnish ministry said Schengen countries issued nearly 500,000 tourist visas to Russian citizens in 2025.

Estonia has also proposed measures to bar former Russian military personnel who fought against Ukraine from entering the EU. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna warned that large numbers of Russian veterans could try to enter Europe after the war, potentially with support from Russian intelligence services. 

The European Commission has supported including a mechanism targeting former combatants in the EU’s 21st sanctions package, and officials are working on how to implement it.

However, EU countries remain divided over the scope of visa restrictions. France and Italy have previously opposed a blanket isolation of Russian tourists. Member states are also debating how to prevent former Russian combatants from entering the bloc without restricting entry for military deserters or opponents of the war.

No timeline has been announced for the proposed restrictions on Russian tourists and diplomats. The measures remain under discussion and have not been adopted as a bloc-wide ban.

US President Donald Trump said on 13 October that the US continues to share intelligence with Ukraine, following reports that Washington had threatened to suspend intelligence assistance unless Kyiv stopped striking Russian oil refineries, POLITICO reported.

The comments came after Ukraine received no advance warning from its partners ahead of Russia's latest ballistic missile strike, raising fresh questions about intelligence sharing between Kyiv and Washington.

“We are helping them, and we are sharing intel. We want the war to end,” Trump told reporters at the White House, according to POLITICO, reaffirming US support after his recent efforts to reach an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin drew criticism over his approach to the war.

Trump reaffirms support after backlash over Russia deal

Last week, the US threatened to cut intelligence sharing if Ukraine did not stop attacking Russian oil refineries. Zelenskyy did not publicly confirm the reported threat.

The reports came amid criticism of Trump’s announcement of a deal to buy Russian oil and his pressure on Kyiv to make concessions, even as Russia continued attacking Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine had refrained from striking Russian oil refineries and the energy sector for two days after Trump announced an energy ceasefire. Russia, however, continued attacking Ukrainian energy facilities and critical infrastructure, he said, with 19 Ukrainian regions coming under attack during those two days.

Trump said Monday that both Russia and Ukraine had violated the energy ceasefire, arguing that each side was responsible. He also said Putin wanted a deal and that Washington needed to persuade Zelenskyy to agree.

Trump's latest comments publicly reaffirm that intelligence sharing is continuing. However, the circumstances surrounding the latest Russian strike have raised questions about whether Ukraine is receiving the early warnings it needs to protect civilians.

Ukraine received no warning before latest Russian strike

Early warnings of incoming Russian ballistic missiles give Ukrainians a brief window to reach shelter before impact. US intelligence helps make those warnings possible, giving civilians crucial time to protect themselves.

Zelenskyy said Russia's latest attack involved five ballistic missiles and more than 100 drones, and that Ukraine received no warning from its partners before the strike.

“Intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches helps save lives,” Zelenskyy said Tuesday. “This is precisely what helps prevent people from being killed — when there is an early warning about ballistic missiles.”

He added that Ukraine had received no warning ahead of the attack.

Ukraine normally receives alerts about impending Russian missile launches through the Battlespace Command and Control Center, a system operated by the US military and NATO members, among others, POLITICO reported.

Citing an unnamed official familiar with the matter, POLITICO reported that US officials attributed the missing warning to bad weather. The explanation reportedly raised doubts among Ukrainian officials.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said the warning system had failed to transmit information on previous occasions. He said specialists would work with international partners to resolve any technical problems.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Tuesday that intelligence sharing through the platform was continuing, according to POLITICO.

Ukraine's Khartiia Corps has accused Russian forces of using civilians as human shields and then shelling them near a gas pipeline in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, on 13 October. The group included two women, a child, and several men, according to the Ukrainian military unit.

Khartiia warned that Russian media could use footage of the incident to accuse Ukrainian forces of attacking civilians. The corps said the shelling came from Russian-held territory and described the incident as a deliberate provocation.

The corps said Russian troops led the civilians toward the Shebelinka–Ostrogozhsk gas pipeline before the group came under repeated mortar and artillery fire. Aerial reconnaissance footage recorded casualties among the civilians, the unit said.

Russian forces used civilians as human shields before shelling them near Kupiansk, Ukraine’s Khartiia Corps alleges.

The group included two women, a child, and several men who were being led toward a gas pipeline when they came under mortar and artillery fire, according to the… pic.twitter.com/XvbcwRIwLb

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 13, 2026

Khartiia says Russian forces fired from occupied side of Oskil River

According to Khartiia, Ukrainian forces did not open fire on the group. 

The corps said an analysis of the explosions indicated that the shelling came from the eastern bank of the Oskil River, from territory held by Russian forces.

The unit described the incident as a deliberate provocation, warning that Russian media could use footage from the scene to falsely accuse Ukraine of attacking civilians.

Evidence to be submitted for war crimes investigation

Khartiia said it would submit the collected materials for investigation into potential war crimes.

The corps did not provide a confirmed number of civilian casualties or further details about the condition of those shown in the reconnaissance footage.

The allegations have not been independently verified.

France has seized an oil tanker suspected of belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet after intercepting it more than 450 nautical miles south of Réunion in the Indian Ocean, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on 12 October.

The seizure targets a network Russia relies on to keep oil revenues flowing despite Western sanctions imposed over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The shadow fleet allows Moscow to continue exporting oil and funding its war in Ukraine. 

The French Navy boarded the DF Peak over suspicions that it was sailing under a false flag and involved in illegal fuel transportation, Macron said. French forces escorted the vessel to an anchorage near Réunion for further checks as part of a judicial investigation. 

La France est déterminée à lutter contre la flotte fantôme, partout dans le monde.

Ce matin, à plus de 450 nautiques au sud de La Réunion, notre Marine nationale a arraisonné le pétrolier DF Peak, suspecté de naviguer sous un faux pavillon et impliqué dans des activités… pic.twitter.com/GS91egdvzN

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) October 12, 2026

What is Russia’s shadow fleet?

Russia’s shadow fleet consists of oil tankers used to keep Russian oil and petroleum exports moving despite Western sanctions imposed after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The vessels often operate through opaque ownership structures, change names or flags, and use registration practices that make it harder to establish who controls them and where their cargo originates. These methods help Russia maintain oil revenue while limiting the impact of sanctions and restrictions on shipping and insurance. 

The fleet also raises safety and environmental concerns. Many of the vessels are older tankers operating with unclear insurance coverage or limited oversight, increasing the risk of accidents and oil spills.

DF Peak previously sailed under different name

The DF Peak was previously named Kaliningrad and sailed under the flag of Benin. It has been subject to US, UK, and EU sanctions since 2024, according to Reuters. Ukrainian military intelligence has also linked the tanker to Russian crude oil transportation and the shipping company Sovcomflot. 

The tanker was last tracked near Madagascar on 12 October after departing from Venezuela, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. French authorities said the vessel would be taken to Réunion for a closer examination of its registration and activities. 

Russia condemns seizure

Russia’s embassy in France condemned the seizure, calling it a violation of international law and describing the operation as “piracy,” according to Russian state media cited by Reuters. The embassy said France had not notified Moscow about the seizure and that it was checking whether Russian citizens were among the crew. 

The seizure is part of wider European efforts to enforce sanctions against Russia’s oil exports and target vessels suspected of using false flags. France has seized at least five Russian-linked tankers since 2024, Reuters reported. 

Norwegian nonprofit Fritt Ukraina is allocating NOK 10 million (about $1 million) to strengthen air defenses around Chornomorsk, a key Ukrainian port on the Black Sea, the organization announced on 9 October.

Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels are threatening Ukraine’s maritime trade and agricultural exports, putting pressure on a vital source of revenue for the country and disrupting shipments of food to international markets.

The funding will support Ukrainian State Border Guard Service and Armed Forces units defending the region against Russian attack drones. It is being delivered through Dronefall, a project run by the Ukrainian Come Back Alive Foundation, which equips military units with interceptor drones and the equipment needed to operate them.

Fritt Ukraina, whose name means “Free Ukraine,” is a Norwegian nonprofit organization that supports Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s full-scale invasion. The donation is part of its Odins Ravner 2.0 fundraising campaign, which provides military assistance to Ukrainian forces.

Interceptor drones and equipment to protect port infrastructure

The support includes STING, Blyskavka and P1-SUN interceptor drones, alongside ground control stations, communications equipment, generators, charging stations, laptops, tablets and vehicles, according to the organization.

The interceptor drones are already operational, according to Fritt Ukraina. The equipment helps Ukrainian personnel detect and intercept Russian attack drones, while vehicles allow crews to move quickly and operate from different positions.

Fritt Ukraina Secretary General Natalia Golis said effective air defense requires more than interceptor drones alone. Communications systems, reliable power supplies and mobility are also essential to ensure units can use their equipment effectively.

The organization is supporting Dronefall for the third consecutive year and has become the Come Back Alive Foundation’s largest foreign partner. The latest donation was matched by a donor affiliated with the Ukrainian foundation.

Russian attacks threaten Ukraine’s maritime exports

More than 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural products, including grain and vegetable oils, are exported through three ports in southern Odesa Oblast. Russian attacks have targeted port infrastructure and civilian vessels, increasing security risks for commercial shipping and driving up freight and insurance costs.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, more than 1,000 Ukrainian port facilities and over 200 civilian vessels have been damaged or partially destroyed, Fritt Ukraina reports. The disruption threatens Ukrainian export revenue and international food supplies.

“The attacks on Ukraine’s ports do not only undermine the country’s defense capabilities. They also threaten a vital part of its economy and its ability to export food to the rest of the world,” Golis said.

Dronefall aims to expand Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian drones using dedicated interceptor aircraft and supporting equipment. According to Fritt Ukraina, participating units have destroyed more than 53,000 Russian drones, accounting for approximately one in five unmanned aerial vehicles entering Ukrainian airspace.

The NOK 10 million contribution is part of Fritt Ukraina’s broader Odins Ravner 2.0 campaign, which provides more than NOK 60 million in support to Ukrainian forces.

Russia is developing new navigation systems for attack drones and missiles that could make its strikes against Ukrainian cities harder to stop, as Moscow adapts its weapons to counter Ukrainian electronic warfare defenses, Ukrainian defense technology adviser Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov said.

The shift poses an additional challenge for Ukraine as Russia continues to attack cities and critical infrastructure with drones and missiles. Systems that can navigate without relying on satellite signals may be harder to disrupt electronically, increasing the importance of other defenses, including interception and physical destruction of incoming weapons.

Image-based navigation could make Russian strike drones harder to jam

Beskrestnov, an adviser to the Ukrainian president on defense technology development, said image-based navigation systems would see wider use in 2027, including in medium- and long-range strike drones and inexpensive cruise missiles.

The technology allows drones to navigate by comparing images captured by an onboard camera with stored photographs of the terrain. Even basic navigation can use publicly available satellite or ground imagery from services such as Google, Beskrestnov said.

Unlike satellite navigation, which can be disrupted by electronic warfare, image-based navigation relies on visual recognition of the terrain. This makes drones using the technology more resistant to jamming and could allow them to continue toward their targets even when satellite navigation signals are unavailable.

Russia already uses image-based navigation on attack drones

Beskrestnov said Russian forces were already using the technology on several types of unmanned aircraft, including Molniya, V2U, and Lancet drones.

He also reported that similar systems had recently been identified on the Russian Geran-4 and Geran-5 attack drones, using a flight controller called Susanin.

The Geran series includes Russian attack drones used in strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The introduction of image-based navigation could make some variants more difficult for Ukrainian forces to counter using electronic warfare.

Russia adapts its weapons to Ukrainian defenses

The development reflects Russia’s broader effort to adapt its weapons as Ukraine improves its air defenses and electronic warfare capabilities. By reducing reliance on satellite navigation signals, Russian drones can become less vulnerable to one of Ukraine’s key methods of disrupting incoming attacks.

Beskrestnov warned that image-based navigation would expand beyond individual drone models, with broader adoption expected next year across different categories of strike weapons.

Russia is expanding efforts to target European defense industry leaders as part of a broader campaign of sabotage and hybrid operations aimed at weakening support for Ukraine, the Financial Times reported on 11 October, citing officials from five European intelligence agencies.

The warnings come amid a wider increase in Russia-linked sabotage and other covert operations targeting European defense companies and critical infrastructure. Moscow is expanding its so-called hybrid warfare campaign against European countries as they continue to support Ukraine, using covert networks, intimidation, and suspected sabotage to undermine security and deter further assistance to Kyiv.

The FT reported that assassinations of civilian targets in Europe, once considered "taboo" even within Russian intelligence services, are becoming an increasingly prominent part of the Kremlin’s plans.

Russian operatives target defense industry leaders

European intelligence officials told the FT that Russian operatives are targeting chief executives and senior employees at defense companies, including smaller firms manufacturing drones and drone components. 

The campaign comes as Russia seeks to undermine European backing for Ukraine amid a battlefield stalemate and mounting pressure on the Russian economy.

The warnings have prompted defense companies to strengthen security around senior executives. Some have increased personal protection, while others have relocated production sites in response to suspected Russian threats, according to the FT.

Germany's domestic intelligence service, the BfV, has stepped up contact with employees and management at German defense companies and recommended that some use privately contracted close-protection teams, an agency official told the newspaper.

BfV chief Sinan Selen warned German lawmakers that Russia was deliberately planning acts of violence against individuals through state or state-controlled actors. He said the operations were evolving in their targets, methods, and use of organized crime networks.

Russia adapts its methods to carry out attacks

According to the intelligence officials cited by the FT, Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, has adapted its methods by working more closely with criminal groups and dividing surveillance, logistics, planning, and execution among different operatives.

Officials said some plots had been disrupted, while other cases involved surveillance of targets at home and at work.

The campaign's intended effect extends beyond any individual attack. One European intelligence official told the FT that the threat is psychological, designed to make people reconsider doing business with Ukraine.

Although some Russian operations remain amateurish and have been detected early, the resulting uncertainty forces companies to devote more resources to security. Smaller firms, which may have fewer resources to protect their personnel and facilities, could be particularly vulnerable.

Plot against Rheinmetall CEO raised alarm in 2024

European defense executives have been on heightened alert since 2024, when US and German intelligence agencies uncovered a Russian plot against Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, a prominent advocate of supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Papperger has said he now receives round-the-clock protection from private security personnel and police.

The FT reported that European intelligence agencies now view threats against defense industry leaders as part of a broader effort to disrupt the production and supply of weapons to Ukraine, rather than isolated plots against individual executives.

US President Donald Trump announced a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Moscow to supply millions of tons of diesel fuel to American and global markets. 

The announcement would give Russia a major opportunity to sell fuel abroad at a time when Ukraine is targeting its oil industry to deprive Moscow of revenue and disrupt the resources sustaining its invasion. The US president has increasingly called for Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in recent weeks, blaming Ukraine for high fuel prices in the US.

Trump’s push for Kyiv to halt those attacks, alongside his effort to secure Russian fuel supplies, risks undermining Ukraine’s campaign to put economic pressure on the Kremlin while the US seeks to contain the fallout from its war with Iran.

Trump promises millions of tons of diesel from Russia

In a 9 October post on Truth Social, Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by another 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons shortly afterward. He also announced a possible additional delivery of 3 million tons, conditional on the state of Russian refineries.

“Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” Trump wrote, describing lower fuel prices as a top priority for American farmers, ranchers, and truckers.

Trump's announcement did not explain how the promised volumes would be reconciled with the condition of Russian refineries amid ongoing Ukrainian strikes, which he cited as a factor determining the timing of later deliveries.

Trump has pressed Ukraine to stop targeting Russian refineries

The announcement comes after Trump repeatedly blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure for worsening global diesel shortages and driving up fuel prices.

Ukraine has continued targeting Russian oil facilities as part of its campaign to undermine Moscow's war economy. Ukrainian strikes have damaged refining capacity, contributed to fuel shortages inside Russia, and forced Moscow to restrict fuel exports. 

Kyiv has argued that the attacks put pressure on Russia's ability to finance and sustain its war against Ukraine.

Iran war drives fuel prices higher, not Ukraine

The rise in US fuel prices stems largely from the US-Israeli war with Iran and its disruption of global energy supplies, according to Reuters. The conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supplies normally pass, pushing energy prices higher. 

Trump has nevertheless blamed Ukraine's refinery strikes for rising fuel costs while pressing Kyiv to halt them.

Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are intended to weaken Moscow's war economy. By contrast, the disruption to global energy shipments stems largely from the conflict with Iran. 

Zelenskyy warns Russian diesel deal would fund further attacks on Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned later on 9 October that allowing Russia to sell petroleum products abroad without securing a lasting de-escalation agreement would help finance Moscow's war against Ukraine.

“Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged,” Zelenskyy said, responding to Trump's announcement of a proposed Russian diesel supply deal.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries and other oil facilities were a response to Russia's years-long campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. He offered a reciprocal arrangement under which Ukraine would stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stopped destroying Ukrainian energy facilities, saying the United States had sufficient leverage to secure such an agreement.

“Ukraine will not burn Russian oil refining facilities if Russia does not destroy our energy infrastructure,” Zelenskyy said.

He also urged Washington to maintain pressure on Moscow, including sanctions under the proposed Graham legislation, and to continue supporting Ukraine's defense. Zelenskyy argued that easing sanctions without a clear, sustained de-escalation agreement would signal weakness and give Russia more time and resources to continue the war.

“Gifts to Putin will not bring peace,” Zelenskyy said, warning that Russia would respond to diesel supplies with further terror and attacks. He called on the United States to pursue a reciprocal de-escalation agreement and press Russia to stop its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Montenegro has ordered the expulsion of Mikhail Zvynchuk, head of the pro-Kremlin military information network Rybar, and four other Russian citizens over national security concerns following a security operation targeting suspected Russian hybrid influence activities, Vijesti reported on 9 October.

Zvynchuk is the founder and head of Rybar, a prominent Russian military-focused information network known for its Telegram channels covering Russia's war against Ukraine. The network promotes pro-Kremlin narratives and has been associated with Russian propaganda and influence operations.

Montenegrin police announced on 9 October that the five Russians had their residence rights revoked and were ordered to leave the country on national and internal security grounds. 

Montenegro investigates suspected Russian hybrid activity

The operation involved Montenegro's police and National Security Agency (ANB), which seized drones, high-resolution recording equipment, cameras, and several mobile phones for further examination, according to Vijesti.

According to Montenegrin authorities, the five had arrived in the country less than two days before the operation. The investigation is being conducted with support from international partners.

Montenegrin police identified the five Russian citizens as Zvynchuk, his wife Valeria Zvynchuk, Sergei Belous, Pavel Lekatorchuk, and Kira Doroshenko. Authorities said the case had been referred to prosecutors in Podgorica and Kotor.

The European Union has sanctioned Zvynchuk over activities that undermine or threaten Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence. He has also been sanctioned by the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Ukraine, according to Vijesti.

Suspected influence operation targeting EU integration

Vijesti reported, citing security sources, that Montenegrin authorities suspected the group of planning a documentary intended to undermine public support for the country's European integration.

According to the outlet, the planned material would portray Montenegro's expected alignment of its visa policy with EU standards as a politically imposed measure that threatens tourism, economic stability, and national interests.

Security services had monitored the group's arrival before carrying out the operation in Risan, in the Bay of Kotor area, Vijesti reported. The equipment seized from the group will undergo expert analysis to establish its intended purpose and use in Montenegro.

Medvedev threatens imprisoning “European and American idiots” for prisoner exchanges

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev responded to the operation by suggesting Moscow might need to expand its pool of prisoners to exchange for Europeans and Americans to secure Zvynchuk's return.

“We will probably have to replenish our pool of prisoners for exchange with European and American idiots,” Medvedev said, according to Vijesti.

Montenegro, a NATO member and EU candidate, has aligned itself with EU sanctions against Russia following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The expulsion comes amid broader European concerns over Russian intelligence activity, propaganda, and other forms of hybrid interference. 

Ukrainian assault troops suffered more than 10 times fewer casualties than Russian forces during Operation Vivaldi, a Ukrainian military veteran said on 9 October, describing the ratio as unprecedented and highlighting Ukraine’s improved ability to protect its soldiers during offensive operations.

The counteroffensive has been a significant Ukrainian success, reclaiming territory in northern Donetsk Oblast and disrupting Russia’s plans to advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The reported casualty ratio points shows Ukraine’s ability to make offensive gains while reducing the human cost of assaulting fortified positions.

Yevhen Dykyi made the remarks in an interview with Radio NV, saying the results showed how Ukrainian forces had learned to limit losses while attacking defended Russian positions.

Protecting troops during offensive operations

Dykyi said the casualty ratio was one of the operation’s most important outcomes.

He said that Ukrainian assault troops suffered more than 10 times fewer casualties than Russian forces during the counteroffensive.

“That speaks volumes. We have learned how to protect our people, and that is extraordinarily vital,” he added.

Operation Vivaldi disrupted Russia’s advance in Donetsk

The Third Army Corps launched Vivaldi in mid-September in northern Donetsk Oblast, near Lyman, where Russian forces had spent months trying to advance toward Ukraine’s fortified cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

The operation aimed to clear Russian troops from positions north of Lyman and disrupt Moscow’s plans to encircle the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine’s Third Army Corps announced the counteroffensive on 15 September, initially reporting that its forces had cleared Russian infiltrators from several settlements and liberated Serednie.

By 30 September, Ukraine had regained 176 square kilometers of territory during the operation, according to figures cited by the Ukrainian presidential office. Ukrainian authorities also reported that their forces had captured around 250 Russian soldiers and inflicted more than 5,000 Russian casualties, including killed and wounded. 

The counteroffensive also disrupted Russia’s effort to advance behind Ukraine’s fortified defensive line. By threatening Russian positions north of Lyman, Ukrainian forces complicated Moscow’s plans to encircle the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area rather than attack its defenses head-on.

Unmanned systems help limit casualties

A key feature of Vivaldi has been the use of unmanned systems to attack fortified Russian positions before Ukrainian infantry moves in. Ukrainian forces deployed ground robots carrying grenade launchers to fire into Russian shelters, while explosive ground vehicles were used to destroy bunkers and strongpoints.

In one reported tactic, heavy drones delivered kamikaze ground robots more than 10 kilometers behind Russian lines, allowing Ukrainian operators to attack positions without exposing infantry to direct fire.

Power outages have returned to Kyiv after Russian attacks damaged the energy infrastructure supplying the capital, with authorities warning that the situation could worsen as Russia intensifies its campaign against Ukraine’s energy system ahead of winter.

Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s power, heating, and other critical infrastructure to disrupt the systems civilians depend on and create a humanitarian crisis during winter. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly warned that this winter will be especially severe, as Russia has expanded its strike capabilities since the summer and Ukraine continues to face shortages of air-defense systems needed to protect its energy infrastructure.

Ukrenergo said on 8 October that emergency outages were being imposed in parts of Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast because of falling voltage in the high-voltage network. Previously announced hourly schedules were suspended, with predictable schedules to resume once the system stabilizes.

In the evening, further disruption came after a Russian attack on an energy facility important to Kyiv. Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said that energy workers were working to restore power.

Kyiv has been under Russian attack throughout the day, with four people killed and 19 injured.

The attack continues into the evening of 8 October, with air raid alerts active across most of the country.

Kyiv loses power, water, and public transport

The damage throughout the day quickly spread beyond electricity.

The Kyiv City Military Administration said power disruptions temporarily halted metro trains and escalators. Part of the capital’s public transport system was also suspended because of the lack of electricity.

Reduced power to water infrastructure caused lower pressure on the right bank of the Dnipro, particularly in the Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Solomianskyi, and Shevchenkivskyi districts. Some buildings could temporarily lose water, the administration warned.

Russia is hitting the energy system as winter approaches

The outages come as Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of the heating season.

Ukrenergo said Russian attacks had caused new power outages in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The company said damaged equipment was already limiting the grid’s ability to supply consumers and warned that further Russian strikes could rapidly change the situation.

For 9 October, Ukrenergo announced all-day power restrictions in affected regions, including hourly outages for some consumers. Industrial and business consumers will also face restrictions. The company urged Ukrainians to conserve electricity, particularly during the evening peak from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m.

Ukraine’s energy authorities have been warning about the consequences of repeated Russian attacks for months. In late September, Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi said attacks on energy facilities had been occurring almost daily since the summer, with the September 29–30 attack marking the first massive combined strike on the energy system since the previous heating season.

The renewed strikes mark the beginning of Russia’s winter campaign against the energy system, with Russian missiles and drones increasingly targeting power-generation and transmission infrastructure in Kyiv and surrounding regions.

Russia has openly threatened another winter of blackouts

The campaign follows years of Russian attacks aimed at disrupting the infrastructure that keeps Ukrainian homes heated and supplied with electricity and water during the winter.

In August, Russia’s Defense Ministry openly taunted Ukrainians over its attacks on energy-related infrastructure, posting images of attack drones with the message that Ukrainians would “get a freeze” in winter. 

Russia’s strategy has repeatedly linked attacks on electricity infrastructure to disruptions in heating and water supplies. This makes damage to the power grid particularly consequential as temperatures fall: a strike on an electrical facility can leave not only homes without lights, but also affect water pumps, heating systems, transportation, and other essential services.

The return of blackouts to Kyiv before the heating season is fully underway is an early indication of the pressure Russia’s renewed energy campaign is putting on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/2108182631217074459/

More than 80% of Moldovans believe the country is not prepared to withstand external aggression, according to a CBS AXA poll presented ahead of the Moldova Security Forum 2026, NewsMaker reports. 

The findings come as Moldova has faced a sharp increase in Russian drone incursions linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moldova recorded 44 airspace-violation incidents in the first nine months of 2026, compared with 17 in all of 2025. Authorities have reported Russian drones crossing Moldovan airspace, while drone and missile debris has also fallen on Moldovan territory.

According to NewsMaker, more than 60% of those surveyed said Moldova is completely unprepared for a possible armed attack, while nearly 24% described its preparedness as weak.

Moldovans see country as unprepared for attack

The survey found that 82% of respondents also do not feel sufficiently informed or prepared to know what to do in a major crisis. According to CBS AXA Deputy Director Vasile Cantarji, respondents tend to trust specialized emergency institutions more than Moldova’s main state institutions.

More than half said they trust Moldova’s General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations, while 35% expressed trust in the church. Trust in the government, parliament, and courts was much lower, at roughly 4–6%.

The findings come as Moldova faces a security environment shaped by Russia’s war against Ukraine, hybrid threats, energy dependence, and disinformation. Moldova’s government has supported Ukraine and strengthened security cooperation with European partners, while repeatedly condemning Russia’s war and its spillover effects.

The repeated drone incursions are now increasingly exposing Moldova to risks from the war next door.

Most favor neutrality over NATO membership

Despite the widespread perception that Moldova is poorly prepared for external aggression, only about 4% of respondents said joining NATO would be the right way to make the country safer.

Around 45% instead favored maintaining Moldova’s neutrality. At the same time, six in 10 respondents said Moldova needs continued external support to strengthen its security and defense.

Nearly two-thirds considered cooperation with the European Union and Romania important for Moldova’s development.

Moldova’s constitution establishes permanent neutrality, while the country has been deepening security and defense cooperation with European partners.

EU seen as preferred source of emergency assistance

The poll also asked whom Moldova should turn to for help during a major disaster such as an earthquake or flood.

About 33% selected EU countries, followed by Russia at roughly 16% and Romania at 15%. The CIS, NATO, UN, and Ukraine each received support from 4% or fewer respondents.

War in Ukraine is one of several security concerns

Respondents identified a range of threats to Moldova’s security, with internal problems ranking alongside external risks.

Corruption was cited by more than 15% of respondents, while poverty was named by 13.5%. Just over 13.5% identified the war in Ukraine as a security risk. Energy dependence and disinformation were each cited by nearly 10%.

Other concerns included economic instability, crime, and external aggression.

CBS AXA conducted the survey from August 25 to September 9 among 2,009 Moldovans aged 18 and older. The reported margin of error is 2.2%. NewsMaker published the findings on October 7.

Moldova strengthens protection at Ukrainian border

Moldovan authorities are now responding to the Russian drone threat by creating protected areas at border crossings with Ukraine where border guards, officials, and civilians can shelter during potential drone attacks, Interior Minister Daniela Misail-Nikitin said on October 7, according to NewsMaker.

Authorities are also moving Moldovan personnel from joint checkpoints located on Ukrainian territory back to Moldova. The measures follow an incident at the Palanca–Maiaki–Udobne crossing in which a Moldovan border guard was injured by a falling projectile.

Transnistria adds another security challenge

Moldova also faces a longstanding security problem in Transnistria, a breakaway region along the country’s eastern border with Ukraine. The region declared independence from Moldova in 1990 and has remained outside Chisinau’s control since a brief war in 1992.

Transnistria is not internationally recognized as an independent state. Russia maintains a significant troop presence there and has long supported the separatist authorities, making the region a persistent source of tension between Chisinau and Moscow. 

Polish SIM cards were found inside some of the Russian drones that entered Polish airspace during a mass incursion in September 2025, Polish outlet RMF24 reported, citing findings from a Polish prosecution investigation.

SIM cards can allow drones to connect to local cellular networks for functions such as communications, data transmission, telemetry, or navigation-related services. However, investigators have not said what the Polish SIM cards found in the Russian drones were used for. The details remain classified.

The SIM cards were discovered in some of the Russian Gerbera drones recovered after the incursion, RMF24 reported.

Investigators have not disclosed whether the SIM cards were stolen or obtained illegally.

The investigation into the September 9–10, 2025 incursion was ultimately closed after prosecutors failed to identify those responsible for violating Polish airspace.

More than 30 drones entered Poland

The incursion took place overnight on September 9–10, 2025, during a large Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine. More than 30 Russian Gerbera drones entered Polish airspace from the east and came down at 27 locations across the country, according to RMF24.

Polish forces intercepted and shot down multiple drones, with the Territorial Defense Forces deployed to search for wreckage and other objects that came down on Polish territory. Poland also maintained contact with NATO command throughout the operation.

The incident prompted Poland to close four airports – Warsaw Chopin, Warsaw-Modlin, Rzeszów-Jasionka and Lublin – because of the military activity. 

Polish officials described the airspace violations as unprecedented and a serious threat to national security. The incident marked the first time since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine that Polish forces had used weapons against Russian aerial objects that entered the country's airspace.

The mass incursion subsequently became the subject of a criminal investigation into the violation of Polish airspace and the threat to public safety.

Investigation closed without identifying perpetrators

After months of investigation, Polish prosecutors closed the case because they were unable to identify the perpetrators, according to Lublin District Prosecutor’s Office spokesman Marcin Kozak, as cited by RMF24.

Most of the case files, including the justification for the decision, are classified.

Prosecutors cleared Poland's military response

Investigators also examined whether the Polish military had responded properly to the drone incursion.

According to RMF24, prosecutors concluded that the military acted in accordance with procedures. Polish troops had the right to use force and shoot down hostile objects, and prosecutors found no irregularities in their response.

The investigation was therefore closed both over the failure to identify the perpetrators and over the assessment of the Polish military's actions.

Ukraine will intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries in response to Moscow’s expanded campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with Reuters on 3 October.

Russia has increased attacks on Kyiv in recent weeks, hitting energy and telecommunications infrastructure, roads, railways, and bridges across the Dnipro. Zelenskyy said Ukraine would respond by targeting the Russian energy infrastructure that helps finance the war.

Russia expands attacks on Kyiv

Russian forces have broadened their strikes on infrastructure in and around Kyiv in recent weeks, with attacks increasingly affecting systems that support civilian life.

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence obtained documents indicating that Russian authorities had approved a broader policy for targeting infrastructure, including logistics, roads, schools, and hospitals. He said the goal is to put pressure on residents to leave Kyiv and other major cities.

Russia has also begun targeting bridges across the Dnipro, which connect the eastern and western parts of the capital.

Ukraine targets Russia’s war economy

Ukraine plans to keep striking Russian oil refineries because they generate revenue that supports Moscow’s war effort, Zelenskyy said.

The policy puts Kyiv at odds with US President Donald Trump, who has urged Ukraine not to attack Russian oil facilities, arguing that such strikes contribute to higher global diesel prices.

Zelenskyy said he sees no indication that Moscow is prepared for either peace talks or an agreement to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.

Ukraine’s “long-range sanctions” hit targets supporting Russia’s war machine in Samara and Bryansk oblasts, including positions of Iskander missile crews, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. He also reported new “results” in the Black Sea.

Zelenskyy said the strikes came in… pic.twitter.com/4OFHaJ2bH7

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 3, 2026

Ukraine prepares for a new wave of air attacks

Ukraine is also preparing for intensified Russian attacks on its energy system over the winter. Ukrainian officials say Russia has stockpiled hundreds of ballistic missiles for a new campaign against electricity and other critical infrastructure.

Russia has also expanded its use of fast jet-powered Geran drones, launching dozens each day since the summer.

Ukrainian F-16s and MiG aircraft are intercepting around 60% of these drones, according to Zelenskyy, but ammunition for their 20 mm cannons is running low. Ukraine is increasing the use of electronic warfare and expects a first shipment of small, inexpensive air defense missiles designed to counter the jet-powered drones later in October.

Ukraine is developing five interceptor drone models to counter Russian Shaheds. Two have already undergone testing, with Zelenskyy putting their current interception rate at around 30%.

Ukraine expands its strike capabilities

Ukraine is also expanding its long-range strike capabilities. It has used its domestically produced FP-7 ballistic missile in combat for the first time, with a range of about 250 kilometers, while work continues on the longer-range FP-9.

At the same time, Kyiv is working with European partners to secure additional funding for its defense needs. Ukraine has found financing to order drones for early 2027 and is working to close a $27 billion gap in this year’s defense budget through its own resources, bilateral assistance, and financing linked to the EU’s €90 billion loan package.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense and expand its strike capabilities will remain central as Russia prepares for another winter campaign.

Russia struck Kyiv’s Northern Bridge with a drone on 3 October, damaging the roadway and overhead trolleybus lines, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Two people were injured, one of whom was hospitalized.

The strike came one day after repeated Russian drone attacks on the Southern Bridge, which damaged its support structures, road surface and subway infrastructure and forced its closure. The attacks caused severe traffic disruption across Kyiv, with major roads gridlocked and some people reportedly walking across bridges.

Another key bridge targeted

The Northern Bridge connects Kyiv’s Obolon and Troieshchyna districts and is one of the capital’s major routes across the Dnipro.

Damage to its roadway and trolleybus network adds another disruption to Kyiv’s transport system after the attacks on the Southern Bridge. The Northern and Southern bridges are among the capital’s key crossings between its eastern and western banks.

Kyiv changes bridge restrictions

Kyiv authorities announced temporary changes to bridge traffic rules following the attacks.

During air raids, traffic on the Southern Bridge will be restricted for 15 minutes in the direction from the right bank to the left bank, while traffic in the opposite direction will remain open. On the Podilskyi-Voskresenskyi Bridge, traffic in both directions will stop for 15 minutes when an air-raid alert is announced or lifted.

The Northern, Darnytskyi, Paton and Metro bridges will operate without restrictions during air raids, according to the Kyiv City Military Administration.

Russia’s repeated strikes on Kyiv’s Southern Bridge are now severely disrupting traffic across the capital.

Major roads are gridlocked, with some people reportedly walking across bridges as traffic comes to a standstill. Photos from Suspilne show the resulting congestion on… pic.twitter.com/7SyYG0WOCO

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 2, 2026

Russia intensifies attacks on Kyiv

The bridge strikes come amid an intensifying Russian aerial campaign against Kyiv. Russian drones and missiles have increasingly targeted the capital in recent weeks, damaging residential buildings, schools and infrastructure and disrupting daily life.

The attacks on the bridges add a different dimension to that campaign, directly disrupting movement between Kyiv’s two banks. With multiple crossings affected within days, the strikes have already translated into major traffic disruptions for the city’s residents.

Three Russian missiles and two drones crossed Moldova’s airspace and exploded on Saturday morning, Moldovan Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi told TVR Moldova.

Moldova has seen a dramatic increase in Russian drone incursions in recent weeks as Russia ramps up near-constant drone attacks across Ukraine.

The five incidents occurred between 7:45 and 8:00 a.m., with explosions and debris reported across several districts. Moldova’s Foreign Ministry condemned the airspace violation.

Explosions and debris reported across Moldova

The Moldovan authorities initially said that five drones had crossed the country’s airspace before Nosatîi clarified that the five incidents involved three missiles and two drones. President Maia Sandu said the missiles were Banderol-type missiles, according to NewsMaker.

Nosatîi said the incidents had been documented and that evidence recovered at the sites could be presented to Russia’s ambassador.

Moldova’s Foreign Ministry said Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to create concrete threats for the country and condemned the violation of its airspace.

According to NewsMaker, fragments were found outside Căușeni, near Dubovca in Hîncești District, between Delacău and Puhăceni in Anenii Noi District, and near Crocmaz in Ștefan Vodă District.

Near Crocmaz, an explosion in a vineyard field caused a vegetation fire and damaged windows at a nearby agricultural facility. Fragments were also found near Constantinovca in Căușeni District, where an explosion caused another vegetation fire.

Moldova’s Defense Ministry later reported a sixth unauthorized flight over the country that did not result in an explosion. The object entered Moldovan airspace at 8:04 a.m. from the direction of Udobne, Ukraine, and exited a minute later toward Biliaivka, Ukraine. 

Moldova seeks stronger air defenses

Asked why the weapons were not intercepted, Nosatîi said Moldova was taking measures to strengthen its air-defense capabilities and acquire interception systems.

He said the drones are sophisticated and fast, adding that Moldova, like Ukraine, is learning how to defend against them. He also said Moldova needs additional resources to protect its 1,212-kilometer border with Ukraine and monitor its airspace.

Moldovan authorities urged residents not to approach or touch any fragments they find, but to mark the location and notify police or the military so the area can be secured and the debris neutralized.

Ukraine helped 41 citizens escape from Russian-occupied territories into Ukrainian-controlled territory in August and September, including four children and five teenagers, Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said.

For many, the crossing marked the end of months or years under Russian occupation and the beginning of their return to life in government-controlled Ukraine.

They returned to Ukraine via Belarus through the Mokrany-Domanove crossing in Ukraine's Volyn Oblast.

From occupation to safety

Lubinets described several cases among those who returned.

One family was able to leave after the father was released from Russian captivity. Their older son remains in captivity, while the woman and her younger son had been under the control of occupation authorities and, according to their account, were previously taken to a detention facility under the pretext of providing medical care and subjected to forced treatment.

A young medical worker was evacuated shortly before she could have been mobilized into Russia’s armed formations, according to Lubinets.

Another returned man had been detained several times in occupied territory and held in basements. His Ukrainian passport had also been confiscated.

Help continues after the crossing

For those returning, reaching Ukrainian-controlled territory is only the first step. The Ombudsman’s Office and partner organizations provide assistance with restoring documents, financial support, temporary accommodation, psychological and social services, and onward travel.

The office said that, in August and September, its joint project with Caritas Ukraine provided assistance to 1,140 people, including people evacuated from occupied territory.

Ukraine’s efforts to facilitate returns are taking place against a broader problem of displacement from occupied territory. A 2026 UN report documented forcible transfers and deportations from areas occupied by Russia, as well as barriers that make it difficult for displaced Ukrainians to return.

The Mokrany-Domanove crossing is one of the routes through which Ukrainians can return to government-controlled territory, making it a key part of Ukraine’s effort to bring civilians home from occupation.

Others are still waiting to leave

Lubinets said his office continues receiving requests from people seeking to leave occupied territory and works with Ukrainian, international and third-country partners to find routes out.

Lubinets noted that the situation remains particularly difficult in Oleshky and surrounding settlements in Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian authorities say elderly people, people with disabilities, sick residents and families remain without reliable access to food, water, medicine, healthcare and communications. Recent reporting has put the number of civilians still in Oleshky at around 2,000, including about 50 children.

Russia has ordered Hungarian diplomatic staff to leave the country weeks after Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats over activities Budapest said were incompatible with their diplomatic status, Euronews reported. 

The tit-for-tat expulsions mark a significant change in relations between Budapest and Moscow following Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule as Hungarian Prime Minister.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned Hungary’s chargé d’affaires Gábor Gergics on 1 October and informed him that staff at the Hungarian embassy in Moscow and consulates in St Petersburg and Kazan would have two weeks to leave. Moscow described Hungary’s September expulsion as “baseless and openly unfriendly,” according to Euronews.

Hungary stands by expulsions

Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats on 8 September, citing activities it said were unacceptable for diplomats under the Vienna Convention. The government did not publicly provide details of the alleged activities.

Budapest said it was not seeking an escalation but would maintain its decision, while also saying its diplomatic missions in Russia would continue operating.

The expulsions come as Hungary’s foreign policy shifts under Prime Minister Péter Magyar, who took office after Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz lost the April election. Magyar’s government has moved to strengthen Hungary’s alignment with the EU and NATO while maintaining what it describes as pragmatic relations with Moscow.

A break with the Orbán era

Under Orbán, Hungary maintained unusually close relations with Russia compared with other EU members. Budapest continued cooperation with Moscow after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Orbán repeatedly opposed or delayed EU measures related to Ukraine.

The new government has taken a different position. In September, Hungary expelled the 10 Russian diplomats, and its new foreign policy doctrine identified Russia as a threat to Hungary’s security. Earlier, the government’s guidance for its UN delegation condemned Russia’s war against Ukraine and affirmed Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to self-defense, according to Euronews.

The shift has not amounted to a complete break with Moscow. Magyar has said Hungary will pursue pragmatic relations with Russia, while Budapest continues to seek concessions from Kyiv over the rights of Hungary’s minority in Ukraine.

Kazakhstan detained Ukrainian citizen Liubov Rozhanska in Astana on 1 October at Russia’s request, after she traveled there to receive her grandson, a Ukrainian boy whose father has sought his return to Ukraine, Deutsche Welle (DW) reported.

Russia accuses Rozhanska of attempting to abduct the child and is seeking her detention through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led security alliance that includes Kazakhstan. 

She could now face deportation to Russia, despite never having entered the country, according to her lawyers cited by DW. 

A Ukrainian child Russia wants to keep

The case involves a boy born in Odesa in 2018. His mother took him from Ukraine to Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast in 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion. In 2022, she and the child obtained Russian citizenship.

The boy’s Ukrainian father challenged the child’s residence in court. In March 2025, Ukraine’s Supreme Court ruled that the boy should live in Odesa with his father.

According to Rozhanska’s lawyer, Oleksii Pryanishnikov, the boy’s stepfather and step-grandfather contacted her in July 2026 about arranging the child’s transfer to his Ukrainian father and grandmother.

By August, a Kaliningrad court had issued a warrant to detain Rozhanska in connection with an alleged attempt to abduct the child. Russian investigators were also preparing documents to seek her extradition through the CSTO, according to documents cited by DW.

Rozhanska then traveled to Astana and was detained at the airport after arriving from Istanbul.

Kazakh lawyer Riza Nurbaeva told DW that Rozhanska did not know about the Russian criminal case and had never entered Russia. She said the Ukrainian was detained under the Kaliningrad court’s warrant.

Lawyer alleges political motive

Pryanishnikov described the detention as a “planned operation” by Russia’s Federal Security Service and alleged that it has a political dimension connected to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

His allegation comes in the context of Russia’s documented transfer and deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia and efforts to assimilate them into Russian society, grant them Russian citizenship and sever their ties to Ukraine.

In this case, Russia is using international legal mechanisms to potentially prevent a Ukrainian child from returning to his father in Ukraine.

Rozhanska is currently being held in a Kazakh pretrial detention center. A court hearing is expected within three days, according to DW.

Russian forces have repeatedly struck Kyiv’s Southern Bridge with drones since 1 October, disrupting one of the capital’s main routes between the left and right banks of the Dnipro.

The strikes are part of a broader intensification of Russian drone attacks on the capital. In recent weeks, Russia has begun launching daily attacks involving jet-powered Geran drones, increasingly disrupting everyday life in Kyiv.

The Southern Bridge is an important road and rail crossing over the Dnipro. It carries road traffic between Kyiv's left and right banks and also forms part of the city's metro network.

The bridge was fully closed to traffic following the latest attacks, while restrictions were also introduced on the Metro and Paton bridges, according to Suspilne. Public transport has been diverted to alternative routes, while the disruptions have caused major traffic congestion across Kyiv.

Update 17:50: Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said Russian forces have struck the Southern Bridge again on the evening of 2 October. The bridge remains closed to road traffic and metro services following several previous attacks. Emergency services are heading to the site.

Bridge targeted repeatedly

The Southern Bridge came under attack multiple times on 1 October and was targeted again during the overnight attack into 2 October.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces struck the bridge several times with drones during the night. He said the attacks were part of a larger Russian barrage involving more than 100 attack drones, nearly 50 of them jet-powered Gerans.

The bridge has not been destroyed, but the repeated strikes have forced authorities to limit its use and reorganize traffic across the Dnipro.

Ukrainian analyst Andrii Kovalenko said the Southern Bridge is difficult to destroy with the weapons Russia is using. However, he said such strikes can damage the bridge enough to disrupt its normal operation, while the resulting disruption can also be used to spread panic.

Russia’s repeated strikes on Kyiv’s Southern Bridge are now severely disrupting traffic across the capital.

Major roads are gridlocked, with some people reportedly walking across bridges as traffic comes to a standstill. Photos from Suspilne show the resulting congestion on… pic.twitter.com/7SyYG0WOCO

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 2, 2026

Zelenskyy: Russia is targeting bridges and critical infrastructure

Zelenskyy said Russia's intensified attacks are part of a broader effort to disrupt life in Ukrainian cities and damage infrastructure beyond individual military targets.

Citing Ukrainian intelligence and people he said are close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Zelenskyy claimed Putin said in early September: “Now, there are no rules.” Zelenskyy said Russia had failed to occupy Ukraine and was therefore turning to mass attacks and killings.

“They want to destroy our bridges and, as we understand it, our data centers, internet, mobile networks, hospitals, kindergartens, schools, universities – everything,” Zelenskyy said.

He added that Russia wants to force Ukrainians to leave their cities. “They want people to flee their cities, and we need to do everything to save our people and our cities,” he said.

A key crossing for Kyiv disrupted

The bridge’s closure puts additional pressure on the capital's other bridges. On 2 October, traffic on the Metro Bridge was restricted to one lane toward the right bank, while traffic from the right bank toward the left was restricted on the Paton Bridge.

Several bus routes were diverted to other bridges. Kyiv authorities reported major traffic jams on the city's main roads as the restrictions disrupted normal movement between the two sides of the capital.

Metro service across the Southern Bridge also remains tied to an assessment of the structure. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Friday the metro can resume crossing the bridge during yellow-level air alerts after experts provide an assessment confirming its condition.

Part of a wider campaign against Kyiv

The bridge strikes came alongside attacks on civilian areas of Kyiv. A Russian drone hit the upper floors of a 25-story residential building in the Darnytskyi district on 2 October, causing a fire on the 24th and 25th floors.

One person was killed and two were injured. The attack also damaged buildings and vehicles in the Holosiivskyi district.

A Russian drone struck a 25-story residential building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district this morning.

According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia launched more than 100 attack drones at Ukraine overnight, including nearly 50 jet-powered drones.

In Kyiv, the strike caused a… pic.twitter.com/jiGjJeUgVf

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 2, 2026

The growing frequency of jet-powered Geran attacks is making the impact of Russian strikes increasingly visible beyond individual damage sites. Repeated attacks on infrastructure such as the Southern Bridge can disrupt transportation and daily routines across the capital even when the targeted structures are not destroyed.

Residents who have recently escaped Russian-occupied Oleshky describe being subjected to threats, intimidation, and exploitation by Russian soldiers, according to the head of the Oleshky City Military Administration.

Oleshky is facing severe shortages of food, water, and medicine, with around 1,500 civilians, including up to 50 children, still trapped in the Russian-occupied city with no safe way out.

Tetiana Hasanenko told Ukrinform on September 29 that people escaping the city on foot were severely weakened and had lost up to 15 kilograms. She said those who managed to leave described not only hunger, but also abuse by Russian troops.

“They were really fleeing from hunger and from abuse,” Hasanenko told Ukrinform.

Russian troops threaten residents for food and alcohol

According to Hasanenko, Russian soldiers are entering residents’ homes, taking them over, and forcing the civilians living there to feed them despite having little food themselves.

“They move in and demand that people feed them and give them alcohol,” she said, adding that some of the soldiers appeared to be drug or alcohol users.

She described one family’s account in which a Russian soldier allegedly locked them in a shower while in an apparently intoxicated state and threatened to throw a grenade at them.

Another woman reportedly told Ukrainian officials that a Russian soldier threatened to kill her because the homemade wine she gave him was sour.

“They move in and demand to eat and drink,” Hasanenko said.

Residents face hunger and mines

The accounts come as Oleshky in Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast faces a severe humanitarian crisis. Ukrainian authorities say around 1,500 people remain in the occupied city, including up to 50 children, with residents lacking reliable access to food and water.

Those trying to escape face minefields around the city. Hasanenko said some residents have attempted to leave on foot and that there are people who have failed to return after entering mined areas.

She said one family tried to return because children had been left behind at home but never made it back.

Recent escapees have reportedly lost 10–15 kilograms, with some leaving only after becoming severely weakened by hunger.

Russian troops accused of using civilians as cover

Hasanenko also said Russian soldiers are deliberately living in civilian homes to protect themselves.

By occupying homes and remaining among local residents, she said, Russian troops are effectively using civilians as a “human shield” because they fear for their own safety.

Ukraine has been seeking an organized evacuation of civilians from Oleshky and has said the International Committee of the Red Cross is prepared to participate if Russia agrees to the necessary arrangements. Russia has not confirmed its readiness to allow such an evacuation.

A former Wagner fighter captured by Ukraine has described alleged training sessions in Mali where Russian mercenaries used African prisoners as live subjects, deliberately inflicting severe injuries so recruits could practice battlefield medicine and killing.

Training built around real victims

The fighter told Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Karpenko that Wagner instructors brought captured Africans to training sessions and turned them into human practice targets.

“We gathered for medical training, and they brought in a captured terrorist. They tied a block of TNT to his leg. They set it off, everyone moved away, and of course his leg was blown off,” he said.

The recruits then practiced stopping the resulting bleeding. According to the fighter, the prisoner was later shot in the artery near his armpit so they could practice the same procedure on his arm.

The prisoner died after the training.

In another session, he said, instructors had a prisoner's leg chopped off with an ax so recruits could practice applying a tourniquet under realistic conditions.

“They cut off his leg. Then they put on the tourniquet – everything as if it were an extreme situation, so everything would be realistic,” he said.

‘Here, strike the heart’

The alleged exercises also included training in how to kill.

The fighter said another prisoner was drugged before recruits were taught how to kill someone with a knife.

“They showed us how to kill with a knife to the heart. They chose two people who were willing and said: ‘Here, strike the heart,’” he said.

The fighter said all three prisoners died during the exercises.

From Mali to Ukraine

The testimony comes from a Russian mercenary who joined Wagner in 2023 and was sent to Mali that September via Syria. He said around 120–130 recruits traveled with him and that Wagner paid them $3,000 a month.

Wagner was a Russian paramilitary formation that operated as a deniable arm of the Kremlin in Ukraine, Syria, and Africa. After Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's death in 2023, the group's independent role was largely dismantled, with many of its fighters and operations brought under Russian state control. Its African operations were increasingly taken over by Russia's state-run Africa Corps.

The mercenary remained in Mali until April 2024. After returning to Russia, he signed a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry in August 2025 and was assigned to the 14th Separate Special Forces Brigade, which is subordinate to Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU.

He was subsequently captured by Ukrainian forces.

A record of alleged abuses

The account has not been independently verified, but it adds to years of allegations of serious abuses by Wagner and other Russian personnel in Africa.

Wagner fighters have long faced allegations of abuses in Africa, including killings and violence against civilians. In Mali, the group became a key part of Russia’s military presence after the country’s military junta turned to Moscow for support, with Wagner fighters operating alongside Malian forces. Ukrainian intelligence has also documented and targeted Wagner’s activities in Africa.

The pattern of alleged abuses has continued under Russia’s Africa Corps, the Kremlin-controlled force that replaced Wagner in Mali. Human Rights Watch reported in August 2026 that Africa Corps fighters summarily killed nine civilians, including four children, beat dozens of others, and burned and looted homes in central Mali. In June, the group also carried out airstrikes that killed eight civilians, including three children.

Estonia says Russia ordered the August arson attack on Milrem Robotics’ Tallinn premises, an Estonian defense company supplying Ukraine with military ground robots.

Russian sabotage operations have been expanding across Europe in recent months, targeting companies, infrastructure and supply chains connected to Ukraine’s defense effort. European authorities have linked or investigated suspected Russian involvement in arson and other sabotage attempts in several countries, as Moscow seeks to disrupt support for Ukraine and intimidate its European backers.

Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said on 29 September that information gathered by Estonia’s Internal Security Service showed the fire at Milrem’s Tallinn premises on the night of 14–15 August was a Russian intelligence-directed sabotage operation. Estonia summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires over the attack.

Three suspects detained

Estonian authorities had already detained three suspects in connection with the arson, with the suspects apprehended in Latvia. Tsahkna said the perpetrators had been taken into custody and no longer posed a threat to Estonia.

Russia’s attempts to divide, intimidate and sow confusion will fail.

Every act of sabotage only strengthens Allied resolve, increases pressure on Russia and reinforces support for Ukraine.

We will continue to expose, deter and respond. No stone will be left unturned. https://t.co/JfdSbAUGi1

— Margus Tsahkna (@Tsahkna) September 29, 2026

When the investigation was first announced in August, Estonian authorities had not publicly established a Russian connection or disclosed evidence linking Moscow to the fire.

Milrem supplies robots to Ukraine

Milrem Robotics makes THeMIS unmanned ground vehicles, which have been used by Ukrainian forces since 2022 for tasks including transporting ammunition, food and other supplies, evacuating wounded troops, and mine clearance.

The company said in August that the fire had not disrupted its production or deliveries to Ukraine. More than 200 of its robotic systems are expected to be operating in Ukraine by the end of 2026, including more than 150 vehicles funded by the Netherlands.

The attack is part of a growing series of suspected sabotage operations targeting companies and facilities connected to Ukraine’s defense effort. In August, Slovak authorities foiled an attempted arson attack on a Ukrainian drone factory, while European investigations have also examined suspected Russian involvement in attacks on defense-related facilities in Czechia, Lithuania and Bulgaria.

Estonia says sabotage will not weaken Ukraine support

Tsahkna said Russia’s campaign is intended to intimidate European countries, divide allies and weaken their support for Ukraine.

“Russia’s sabotage campaign will not achieve its objectives,” the Estonian Foreign Ministry said, adding that Estonia and its allies would continue increasing pressure on Russia and supporting Ukraine.

Tsahkna said Estonia would respond to the attack by increasing both its support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia.

Ukraine is set to receive three more F-16 fighter jets from Belgium by the end of 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, as Russia intensifies its missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities.

The aircraft are particularly valuable as Russia increases its use of Shahed/Geran drones, including faster jet-powered variants that are harder for Ukraine’s cheaper interceptor drones to stop. Russia’s growing aerial campaign is already placing additional pressure on Ukraine’s limited air-defense resources.

Zelenskyy said the aircraft will be delivered through an accelerated process. Ukraine has already received urgent F-16 ammunition from Belgium and other partners, including Spain.

“As Russia escalates its attacks every day, we need to increase our capabilities to shoot down aerial targets and protect people,” Zelenskyy said.

F-16s help counter Russia’s air campaign

Ukraine received its first F-16s in 2024 after an 18-month international effort to secure the aircraft and train Ukrainian pilots. The jets have since become an important part of Ukraine’s air defense.

Ukrainian F-16s are used primarily to intercept Russian cruise missiles and attack drones, while also carrying out electronic warfare and other missions. In one January 2025 mission, a Ukrainian F-16 pilot shot down six Russian cruise missiles.

F-16s can also carry precision-guided bombs and air-to-air missiles, allowing them to support strikes against Russian forces and other targets near the frontline. Ukrainian pilots have developed tactics for using the aircraft despite Russia’s dense air-defense network.

For Ukraine, the additional jets therefore provide both another layer against Russia’s expanding aerial attacks and additional capacity for combat operations on the frontline.

Russia plans to sharply increase military spending in 2027 while expanding the authorized size of its armed forces, according to budget documents seen by Reuters and a report by Novaya Gazeta Europe.

The developments point to Moscow preparing to expand its war effort into next year, even as its battlefield gains remain limited and its campaign increasingly relies on missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. It is also doing so as the Russian government faces a widening budget deficit and falling projected oil and gas revenues.

Russia plans 27% increase in 2027 defense spending despite widening budget deficit

Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion rubles ($202.6 billion) on defense in 2027, according to government documents reviewed by Reuters. That is about 27% more than the 13.5 trillion rubles originally budgeted for defense in 2027 and would be the highest level of military spending since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The documents project total defense spending of 50 trillion rubles over the next three years. The actual amount Russia will spend on defense in 2026 is classified, Reuters reported, while some military-related spending can be recorded under other parts of the state budget.

The planned increase comes alongside worsening fiscal pressures. Russia has raised its forecast for the 2026 budget deficit to 3.2% of GDP, from an earlier estimate of 1.6%, according to Reuters. Overall government spending is expected to rise 13.2% this year to 48.6 trillion rubles, or 20.9% of GDP.

The government also expects to increase net borrowing by 26% in 2026 to 5 trillion rubles and withdraw 459 billion rubles from its National Wealth Fund, Reuters reported. Its forecast for 2026 oil and gas revenues has been cut to 7.6 trillion rubles from 8.9 trillion.

Russia is reportedly planning new tax increases for 2027 to help cover the growing deficit. A new windfall tax on metals and mining companies is expected to bring in about 200 billion rubles a year, according to the documents. State debt is projected to rise to 21.7% of GDP in 2027, above the 20% level Russian authorities have previously considered safe.

The draft budget is expected to be submitted to Russia's parliament by October 1.

Army staffing also reaches new high

At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin has again increased the authorized size of the country's armed forces.

Putin signed a decree raising the official staffing level of the Russian Armed Forces to 2.44 million people, including 1.55 million military personnel, Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on September 28. The increase is 15,500 personnel compared with the previous decree issued in August.

It is the fourth increase in the authorized size of the Russian military in 2026 and the seventh since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Novaya Gazeta Europe. Before the invasion, the authorized force stood at 1.90 million people, including 1.01 million military personnel.

Russia shifts more of the war into the air

The increases in military staffing and spending come as Russia continues to pursue its maximalist war aims despite limited battlefield progress. The Institute for the Study of War assessed on September 27 that Russia's frontline has remained largely static in recent months and that the Kremlin is increasingly relying on long-range missile and drone strikes as part of its effort to force Ukraine to capitulate during the winter of 2026–27.

ISW assessed that Putin may be trying to make Ukraine's infrastructure and air defense capacity buckle under sustained Russian strikes rather than relying solely on further territorial gains. The institute also said the Kremlin may delay a large-scale mobilization while it assesses whether its expanded long-range strike campaign can achieve its objectives.

The planned increase in military spending and the repeated expansion of the armed forces show that Moscow is preparing to sustain and expand its war effort into 2027, even as its forces make limited territorial gains in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has again told US officials that Russia can capture Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast within several months, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Speaking to the UN General Assembly on 24 September, Zelenskyy said this was the latest in a long series of similar promises as Russia has spent nearly five years trying to seize the region. He said Putin has made such promises 17 or 18 times, repeatedly pushing the deadline further back.

He contrasted those promises with Russia’s heavy battlefield losses and relatively limited territorial gains.

Russia has paid a huge price for its Donetsk offensive

Zelenskyy said Russian forces suffered 248,964 troops killed or severely wounded between January and August 2026.

He said Russia had captured only slightly more than 1,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory this year, while Ukraine had already liberated a significant portion of those gains.

Zelenskyy presented the figures as the human cost of Putin’s continued attempt to seize Donetsk, arguing that Russia is paying an enormous price for relatively limited territorial gains.

“Always the same: ‘Just a few more months,’” Zelenskyy said, adding that Putin would again fail to meet his latest deadline.

The Russian offensive is also facing a recent setback in northern Donetsk. Ukraine launched Operation Vivaldi in September to clear Russian infiltrators and retake ground near Lyman, disrupting Russia’s plan to encircle the fortified cities of the Donetsk “Fortress Belt.”

Ukrainian forces have reported retaking several settlements and clearing up to 125 square kilometers in the operation, although the full scope of the offensive remains undisclosed.

Zelenskyy also warned that Russia’s ambitions extend beyond Donetsk. After saying Putin would again fail to capture the region, he said Russia would continue seeking other Ukrainian cities, naming Odesa, Kharkiv and Dnipro, while also pointing to Russian pressure on Moldova and threats toward Poland and the Baltic states.

Russia continues to pour missiles and drones into Ukraine

The battlefield campaign has been accompanied by a sustained Russian long-range attack campaign against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Since the beginning of 2026, Russia has launched more than 2,100 missiles against Ukraine, including more than 950 ballistic missiles, according to Zelenskyy.

Ballistic missiles are particularly difficult for Ukraine to counter because it has a limited supply of interceptors capable of engaging them. Russia’s heavy use of ballistic weapons is therefore contributing directly to civilian deaths and infrastructure destruction.

Over the first eight months of the year, Russia also used 63,000 attack drones of various types, Zelenskyy said. More than 7,700 were jet-powered Geran drones, which he described as particularly destructive and dangerous.

The newer jet-powered drones are faster and more advanced than earlier Shahed-type models, making them harder to intercept and adding to the pressure on Ukraine’s air defenses as Russia attacks cities and infrastructure.

Zelenskyy said Russia was using the drones continuously to disrupt economic activity and normal life in Ukrainian cities, including by making it harder for children to attend school.

The figures show the scale of the Russian campaign beyond the front line. Alongside its ground offensive, Russia is using sustained missile and drone strikes to kill civilians, destroy infrastructure, and exhaust Ukraine’s air-defense resources.

North Korean troops add to Russia’s war effort

Zelenskyy also highlighted North Korea’s direct involvement in Russia’s war, saying its troops have suffered heavy losses while gaining battlefield experience alongside Russian forces.

He said North Korea’s military capabilities were also benefiting from its cooperation with Russia, pointing to improvements in its ballistic missiles and drone capabilities.

Ukraine recently transferred two North Korean prisoners of war to South Korea. Zelenskyy said capturing the soldiers alive had been difficult and described one prisoner’s attempt to take his own life after realizing he was about to be captured.

He said the soldiers had been conditioned to believe they had to die rather than surrender.

“Do you really want to give such a force more time to learn how to fight?” Zelenskyy asked.

Zelenskyy calls for de-escalation before winter

Zelenskyy separately warned that Russia could again target Ukraine’s energy and heating infrastructure this winter.

Russia has already intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy system ahead of the cold season.

Russia has also explicitly threatened to “freeze” Ukraine this winter, with its Defense Ministry linking the threat to attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. The country spent much of the previous winter dealing with the consequences of Russian strikes on power and heating infrastructure, including blackouts and disruptions to heat supplies.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine expects the coming winter to be difficult but warned that if Russia continues attacking Ukraine’s energy and heating systems, Ukraine will make the winter painful for Russia as well.

He called for steps toward de-escalation before winter, saying that diplomacy and military strength were both needed to end the war.

The US has arrested the CEO of Virginia-based digital forensics company Oxygen Forensics and a Russian national over allegations that they concealed the company’s Russian ownership and the fact that its software was developed in Russia while selling it to US government agencies, according to the US Justice Department.

The case highlights a potential route through which Russian-linked networks could seek access to sensitive US institutions: concealing Russian ownership and influence behind seemingly legitimate American companies.

Lee Reiber, 55, and Oleg Sergeyevich Davydov, 52, are charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud. The US Justice Department alleges that five Russian nationals, including Davydov, owned and controlled Oxygen Forensics through a Cyprus-based holding company, while its software was developed by a team in Russia.

Software sold to US government agencies

According to the criminal complaint, Oxygen Forensics presented itself to US agencies as an independent American company with no foreign ownership or control.

The company sold digital forensic software used to recover and analyze data from electronic devices to the US Department of War and three Department of Homeland Security components: the Secret Service’s National Computer Forensics Institute, Homeland Security Investigations, and the DHS Office of Inspector General.

The National Computer Forensics Institute awarded Oxygen Forensics a five-year contract in September 2024. The award file included a certification from Reiber stating that the company had no immediate or highest-level owner, according to the affidavit.

The Justice Department alleges that this was false. The Russian owners allegedly continued to make significant company decisions, set Reiber’s compensation, control payments and retain signatory authority over bank accounts after their names were removed from public corporate filings.

Russian software development allegedly concealed

The complaint says the same five Russian nationals also owned a Russian company founded by Davydov in 2000, previously known as Oxygen Software and now called MKO Systems.

According to the affidavit, the Russian company developed the software used by Oxygen Forensics, with developers working in Russia under Davydov’s direction. MKO Systems also sold its software in Russia under different product names to customers that reportedly included the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Russian Investigative Committee and the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs.

After the US expanded sanctions against Russia in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian owners allegedly agreed with Reiber to conceal both the company’s ownership and its Russian development operations.

Reiber was installed as CEO, president and chairman in March 2022, while the Russian owners were removed from the company’s public filings, according to the Justice Department.

The complaint alleges that the arrangement did not end the Russian owners’ control. One of them was later appointed to the company’s board using a Turkish identity, according to the affidavit.

OSINT investigators had traced Russian software links

Militarnyi separately reported that OSINT investigators from InformNapalm had previously traced corporate and technological links between Oxygen Forensics and Russia’s Oxygen Software, now known as MKO Systems.

According to Militarnyi, the Russian company’s products were supplied to Russian security and law-enforcement agencies, including the FSB and Ministry of Internal Affairs. The investigation traced a common corporate and technological origin between the Russian and US software ecosystems.

CEO allegedly denied Russian involvement

The Justice Department says Reiber repeatedly certified to US authorities that the company had no foreign ownership or control.

In March 2026, he allegedly told DHS personnel that no Russian was involved in developing Oxygen Forensics’ software and that no one in Russia had access to its development environment. Days later, he published a statement saying the company had no development presence in any restricted jurisdiction.

The complaint alleges that the software was in fact written and managed by a team in Russia, using a cloud environment administered by one of the Russian owners.

The affidavit also describes a November 2023 exchange in which Reiber allegedly told the Russian owners that public reporting about the company’s Russian connections could jeopardize a pending US government contract.

Arrests and seizures

Reiber was arrested in Idaho on 20 September and released on bond after appearing in federal court. Davydov was arrested the same day at London Heathrow Airport before boarding a flight to Istanbul. The US says it will seek his extradition.

Separately, a federal judge authorized the seizure of Oxygen Forensics’ corporate bank accounts, around 57 domains and other cyber infrastructure allegedly used in the scheme. The domains and related infrastructure were seized on 20 September.

The case is being investigated by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security, with assistance from the Department of War Office of Inspector General’s Defense Criminal Investigative Service.

Each could face up to 20 years in federal prison if convicted.

The European Union has approved nearly €3 billion in new funding for Ukraine, including nearly €800 million provided for the first time through the Ukraine Support Loan. The payment is the eighth regular disbursement under the EU’s Ukraine Facility.

The funding will support Ukraine’s budget, recovery, modernization, and reform efforts as the country continues to fight Russia’s full-scale war and pursue EU membership.

Ukraine meets 88% of targets due so far

The latest payment follows Ukraine’s completion of 10 targets under its Ukraine Plan, the roadmap for reforms and investments linked to the Ukraine Facility. Ukraine has now completed 84 of the 95 targets required under the plan so far, according to the Council of the EU.

Funding under the Ukraine Facility is tied to Ukraine meeting these targets. It is intended to strengthen Ukraine’s macro-financial stability, keep public administration running, and support recovery and modernization.

The Ukraine Facility entered into force in March 2024 and provides more than €50 billion in grants and loans for Ukraine through 2027.

Norway adds €92 million

The EU also amended Ukraine’s plan to include approximately €92 million in non-repayable support from Norway.

Norway is the first non-EU country to contribute to Pillar I of the Ukraine Facility, which provides support through Ukraine’s reform and investment plan.

Sweden has provided more than €253 million in additional voluntary contributions over the past year, while the UK recently contributed more than €17 million to Pillar II, the Ukraine Investment Framework.

Ukraine has received more than €32 billion

Following the latest disbursement, Ukraine will have received more than €32 billion through the Ukraine Facility since mid-2024.

More than €40 billion of the facility’s total funding is earmarked for reforms and investments under the Ukraine Plan, with payments tied to Ukraine’s progress toward the agreed targets.

Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid war against the West, including more frequent sabotage and cyberattacks that could cause greater damage and casualties, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) said in a new assessment published on 24 September.

The assessment says Russia has become increasingly willing to take risks against European and NATO countries, even while its full-scale war against Ukraine continues. DDIS also assesses a low but growing risk of Russia carrying out a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia in the coming months.

Russia preparing to escalate hybrid attacks

DDIS said Russia’s hybrid attacks have increasingly shifted from attempts to create fear and weaken support for Ukraine toward efforts to directly disrupt Western assistance to Kyiv.

This includes sabotage targeting defense companies and railway transport carrying military equipment to Ukraine. The Danish intelligence service expects Russia to carry out such attacks more frequently and with greater consequences.

Future operations could include destructive cyberattacks capable of disrupting critical societal functions and sabotage attacks with a high risk of casualties, according to the assessment.

DDIS also cited the foiled drone attack against Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany as an example of Russia’s growing willingness to conduct operations against targets in Europe. German authorities said the attack had been planned by Russia over several months.

Growing risk of a limited attack on NATO

The Danish intelligence service assesses that there is a low but growing risk Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia.

Such an attack could take the form of isolated long-range strikes against infrastructure supporting Ukraine. Russia could also use Ukrainian-made drones in a false-flag operation or deploy a limited number of troops, potentially without national insignia.

DDIS says Russia could attempt such an operation even while continuing its war against Ukraine and without having the forces needed for a regional war against NATO.

The purpose, according to the assessment, could be to divert European resources away from Ukraine and create divisions within NATO if Moscow believes the alliance would struggle to agree on a collective response.

Russia would likely try to ensure that any military attack remained below the threshold that would trigger a full NATO response. DDIS warns, however, that Russia may be uncertain about what would trigger such a response.

No signs of an imminent Russian invasion

Despite the increased risk of limited attacks, DDIS says it sees no indications that Russia is preparing to invade one or more NATO countries.

The agency considers a full-scale Russian invasion of NATO “highly unlikely,” but says it cannot be ruled out. If Russia decided to launch such an invasion, DDIS estimates it would need at least six months to build up the necessary forces.

The intelligence service also says Russia would need several months to build up forces near a NATO border before a limited military deployment, making such preparations difficult to conceal.

Russia under pressure from Ukraine’s attacks

The assessment says Russia is currently under more pressure than at any other point in its war against Ukraine.

Ukraine’s sustained long-range strikes are causing increasing damage deep inside Russia, while Russian forces are suffering heavy losses for marginal territorial gains. Moscow is also facing economic pressure from military spending, international sanctions and Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure.

DDIS assesses that there is no prospect of Russia achieving a major breakthrough in Ukraine over the next six months. At the same time, it says Putin is highly unlikely to compromise on his fundamental objectives in the war.

The agency says Russia believes Europe will develop a stronger independent military capability by 2030, which Moscow could view as an increasing threat. This could create what DDIS describes as a window of opportunity for Putin to attempt to change Europe’s security order.

Ukraine’s Naftogaz has signed a memorandum with Hungarian energy company MOL to build fuel storage facilities in Hungary near the Ukrainian border, creating additional reserves outside the reach of Russian strikes.

Acting Naftogaz CEO Sergiy Fedorenko said the project will diversify fuel supply routes and provide storage capacity outside areas exposed to Russian attacks. He said this could make fuel supplies more reliable for Ukrainian consumers while also expanding cross-border energy infrastructure.

The agreement was announced during the Carpathian Economic Forum, held as part of the first summit of the Carpathian Eight regional cooperation format.

Why Ukraine needs fuel storage outside the country

Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s fuel infrastructure, including oil and gas production facilities, filling stations, and other sites needed to supply fuel across the country. These attacks increase in the lead up to and during winter months, where the impacts on civilians are especially severe.

Naftogaz said Russian attacks destroyed 37 of its filling stations during the first seven months of 2026. The company said fuel availability is particularly important for emergency services, medical teams, public transport, and communities near the front line.

Russia has also attacked Ukraine’s oil and gas production facilities. In August, Naftogaz said a major Russian attack damaged seven Ukrnafta production facilities and forced some of them offline, reducing oil and gas production.

Storing fuel in Hungary would give Ukraine additional reserves beyond the reach of these attacks and another route for bringing petroleum products into the country if domestic infrastructure is damaged.

Fedorenko said the agreement could make fuel supplies to Ukrainian consumers more reliable while supporting the development of energy infrastructure connecting the two countries.

Ukraine-Hungary ties improve

The deal comes as Kyiv and Budapest have begun rebuilding relations following years of tensions under former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Péter Magyar replaced Orbán as Hungary’s prime minister in 2026, and the new government has moved toward closer cooperation with Ukraine, although major disagreements remain. 

In June, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described the relationship as entering a “new page” after Kyiv and Budapest reached an agreement addressing longstanding disputes over the rights of Hungary’s ethnic minority in Ukraine. 

The two countries have since continued talks on normalizing relations. In September, the relationship was showing tentative signs of improvement, including progress on minority-rights issues and preparations for a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Magyar.

Energy cooperation has already featured in the renewed dialogue. During a Ukrainian government visit to Budapest in 2025, the two sides discussed Hungarian participation in modernizing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and agreed to continue economic cooperation.

The improvement in relations has not eliminated disagreements. Hungary continues to block progress on parts of Ukraine’s EU accession process, citing concerns over the rights of Hungary’s ethnic minority in Ukraine.

The planned fuel-storage facilities therefore mark a practical area of cooperation between the two countries at a time when Russia’s attacks are making secure fuel supplies increasingly important for Ukraine.

Russia has destroyed 2.1 million square meters of Ukraine’s modern warehouse space out of a total 5 million, wiping out more than two-fifths of the country’s storage capacity as Moscow expands its air campaign against Ukraine’s economy, according to the Financial Times.

Russia is increasingly targeting the infrastructure that keeps Ukraine’s economy running and its citizens supplied, including warehouses, distribution centers, railways, fuel stations, and other logistics facilities. By hitting these sites far from the front line, Russia is disrupting the supply of everyday goods and making it harder for Ukrainians to find what they need.

Around 900,000 square meters of warehouse space has been destroyed in recent months alone, according to Ukrainian entrepreneur Ruslan Shostak, founder of the Eva and Varus retail chains, cited by the Financial Times.

Russia is destroying Ukraine’s warehouse capacity

The loss of warehouse space is creating problems for businesses across Ukraine.

Russian strikes have hit warehouses and distribution centers belonging to major Ukrainian retailers, pharmaceutical companies, publishers, and logistics operators.

One recent strike destroyed a warehouse belonging to toy retailer Budynok Ihrashok near Kyiv, FT reported. The facility was hit by a jet-powered drone and caught fire, but firefighters were unable to intervene while Russian drone attacks were continuing.

The company now plans to distribute its inventory among smaller warehouses and its network of 67 stores rather than rely on a single large distribution center.

The destruction of large warehouses is forcing companies to rethink how they store and distribute goods, increasing costs and making supply chains more vulnerable to further attacks.

The attacks are spreading across Ukraine’s economy

Warehouses are not the only economic infrastructure being targeted.

Russian drones have increasingly struck railway infrastructure in western Ukraine, while fuel stations are also being hit farther from the front line. These attacks can disrupt the movement of goods even when they do not directly destroy the businesses producing them.

The result is a widening pressure on Ukraine’s logistics network. Companies must find alternative storage and transport routes while operating under the continuing threat of Russian airstrikes.

The attacks are part of Russia’s broader long-range air campaign against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. Moscow is increasingly using drones and missiles to hit economic targets deep inside Ukraine, putting strain on the systems that allow the country’s economy to function during the war.

For years, Ukraine’s air defenses blunted Russia’s attempts to terrorize its cities from the sky. Now, after four years of adaptation, Moscow is fielding faster drones, massing ballistic missiles, and finding new ways to overwhelm a Ukrainian air-defense network running short of the interceptors needed to stop them.

Russia’s aerial campaign is becoming harder to contain just as its attacks are killing more Ukrainian civilians. July recorded at least 437 civilian deaths, the highest monthly toll since the early months of the full-scale invasion, with UN monitors pointing to Russian missile and drone attacks as a key factor.

That shift is visible most clearly in Russia’s rapidly expanding use of jet-powered Geran drones. These drones can exceed 400 km/h, making them significantly harder to intercept than the slower, propeller-driven Shaheds Ukraine has spent years learning to counter. Russia reportedly launched as many as 2,850 jet-powered drones in August alone.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Russia’s escalation with the new drones is becoming “increasingly terrorist” and called for urgent efforts to develop defenses against them.

While Ukraine’s Western partners have taken steps to strengthen its air defenses, Russia has spent the same period adapting and expanding its ability to attack from the air. The gap is becoming increasingly visible in the skies over Ukrainian cities.

Ukrainian civilians are already paying the price

Russia has increasingly turned its ability to strike deep inside Ukraine into a weapon against civilian life itself: hitting residential areas, fuel stations, railways, energy infrastructure and other sites across cities far from the front.

Since late August, Kyiv has faced near-continuous Russian drone attacks, with Russia increasingly sending waves of drones against the capital throughout the day and night. The shift has made air-raid alerts, explosions and disruptions to daily life a near-constant reality.

For Ukrainians, Russia’s evolving aerial campaign is measured in destroyed homes, injuries, deaths, and lives permanently changed. 

In Kyiv, it has also changed everyday life: explosions interrupt sleep and work, people run for shelter as strikes unfold overhead, and the threat of another attack is never far away.

And the pressure is no longer confined to Kyiv. Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia are all facing increasingly sophisticated combinations of drones and missiles.

The danger is not simply that Russia is launching more weapons. It is that Moscow has spent years learning which weapons can penetrate Ukraine’s defenses, how to combine them, and how to force Ukraine to spend its most valuable interceptors.

Zelenskyy’s warning captures the urgency: “You cannot simply wait for Russia to perfect its repertoire of killings.”

Russia is adapting faster than Ukraine can rebuild its shield

The jet-powered Geran is only one part of the problem.

Russia has also dramatically increased its use of ballistic missiles. Reuters reported that 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles were launched in July and the first eight days of August, with more than half being inaccurate RM48U training missiles repurposed for combat. 

Ukraine has virtually exhausted its US-made Patriot interceptors, the only systems in its arsenal capable of reliably intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles, while Moscow continues launching them at a high tempo.

The result is a more complex aerial threat: fast drones that are difficult to intercept, ballistic missiles that are extremely difficult to stop, and large waves of cheaper weapons that can force Ukraine to expend scarce defensive ammunition.

Ukraine is developing new ways to counter them, including interceptor drones specifically designed to hunt down the jet-powered Gerans. But Ukraine is developing these systems as Russia is already deploying its new weapons at scale.

Western countries have continued providing air-defense assistance. Canada, for example, announced a C$350 million package for interceptors earlier this month. But Ukrainian officials continue to say that deliveries remain far below what is needed to protect the country from Russia’s expanding aerial campaign.

Russia has spent years expanding the weapons it can use against Ukraine, while Ukraine and its partners are still racing to develop and supply the systems needed to stop them.

The threat Europe helped Russia develop

Some of Ukraine’s Western partners are now confronting a threat Russia has spent years developing over Ukraine: an increasingly sophisticated aerial arsenal that could eventually be turned against them.

European officials and defense analysts are increasingly warning that NATO countries themselves lack enough air and missile defenses to deal with a large Russian attack. 

Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs recently said Europe is not sufficiently prepared for the kind of drone and aerial warfare Russia has developed in Ukraine, including because of delays in supplying Ukraine with critical air-defense systems.

Those concerns are no longer hypothetical. On 14 September, an Italian NATO fighter jet shot down a Russian-made Geran-2 drone over Lithuania after it entered the country from Belarus. Poland and Romania have also faced Russian drone incursions since 2025.

This creates a problem that is partly of Europe’s own making. Russia has had more than four years to refine its drones, missiles, production lines and tactics while Ukraine’s partners have often been too slow to provide enough weapons to counter those systems as they were developed and deployed at scale.

In that same period, many European countries continued trading with Russia, particularly in fossil fuels, allowing Moscow to keep generating revenue from European markets even as those same governments were providing military aid to Ukraine.

The result is a Russian aerial arsenal that is more capable than the one Ukraine faced in 2022 – while some of the countries now worried about a future Russian threat lack the air defenses needed to protect themselves.

Western governments helped Ukraine fight Russia’s air war, but not at a scale or speed sufficient to prevent Russia from adapting. 

Ukrainian civilians are paying the price for the time Russia was given to expand and refine its aerial warfare. Now, Europe is having to prepare for the possibility that those capabilities could one day be used against it. 

Ukraine’s Third Army Corps says its forces have liberated Shandryholove and Derylove and established full control over Drobysheve in Donetsk Oblast as part of its ongoing “Vivaldi” offensive.

Ukraine is taking the initiative in northern Donetsk, where Russia has spent years trying to seize the remaining Ukrainian-held territory. By retaking ground and disrupting Russian logistics, the “Vivaldi” counteroffensive could complicate Moscow’s plans for a broader offensive in the Donbas.

According to the corps, Ukrainian forces and attached units have regained control of 125 square kilometers during the first two phases of the operation, including 50 square kilometers that had been under Russian occupation.

The corps said the operation has also inflicted more than 3,000 Russian personnel losses across the two phases, including 800 more during the latest phase. 

Ukraine expands gains in “Vivaldi” offensive

The Third Army Corps said its forces captured Shandryholove and Derylove and established full control over Drobysheve during the second phase of the offensive.

The offensive is aimed at degrading Russian forces operating in the area, with the corps saying it is targeting elements of Russia’s 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies and 1st Guards Tank Army.

Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi, commander of the Third Army Corps, said Ukrainian assault groups are preceded by drones and unmanned ground vehicles.

The corps said its heavy bombers have been used to deliver kamikaze ground robots more than 10 kilometers behind Russian lines. Artillery and drone units have targeted Russian command posts, communications nodes, logistics, crossings, and reserves.

Ukrainian air defense and electronic warfare units have also helped shield the area of operations, according to the corps.

The operation involved units from the 60th Mechanized Brigade, 125th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, 3rd Assault Brigade, KRAKEN, the 3rd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, and the corps’ 25th Anti-Tank Battalion, along with attached units.

“One of the most important victories for Ukraine in 2026”

Open-source analyst Clément Molin, who has tracked the offensive using publicly available information, described the developments as highly significant.

“This is one of the most important victories for Ukraine in 2026, which will delay the offensive on northern Donbas,” Molin said.

After 4 months of the Lyman counter-attack, Ukraine 3rd Army Corps managed to cut Russian salient north of Lyman and liberate more than 200 km2

This is one of the most important victory for Ukraine in 2026 which will delay the offensive on northern Donbas

THREAD1/20 pic.twitter.com/PybB6jO9DO

— Clément Molin (@clement_molin) September 8, 2026

He also cautioned against claims that a large Russian grouping had been encircled, while assessing that Ukrainian advances had put pressure on Russian positions and supply routes.

The information surrounding the operation has remained limited, with Ukrainian forces maintaining operational security around their movements.

The Third Army Corps said the offensive is continuing and that further developments are expected soon.

Ukraine launched a massive long-range drone attack on Moscow and Moscow Oblast overnight on 20 September, striking a major Russian oil refinery and a logistics facility, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Ukraine is increasingly targeting Russian oil refineries, logistics hubs, and other strategic infrastructure that helps generate the fuel, revenue, and supplies Russia needs to sustain its war against Ukraine. Striking them allows Kyiv to put pressure on Russia’s war economy and military logistics far beyond the front line.

The Moscow Oil Refinery was among the facilities hit. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin confirmed that an object at the refinery was damaged, while OSINT analysis by ASTRA of eyewitness footage also identified the refinery as one of the attack’s targets.

Zelenskyy said the strikes were carried out using a range of Ukrainian long-range weapons and targeted infrastructure that generates revenue for Russia’s war effort.

The attack took place on the second day of Russia’s three-day State Duma elections, with voting taking place across the country from 19 to 21 September.

Moscow refinery targeted

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces struck “one of the key enterprises of the Russian oil industry” in the Moscow region, along with a logistics facility.

The Moscow Oil Refinery is operated by Gazprom Neft and is located in Moscow’s Kapotnya district. According to information cited by ASTRA, it can process 11 million tons of oil annually and supplies about 40% of Moscow’s fuel market and 70% of the Moscow region’s gasoline and aviation fuel needs.

Sobyanin said an object on the refinery’s territory was damaged and that there were no casualties there.

Ukraine’s long-range campaign

Zelenskyy said Ukraine used FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sich, and Pelican systems in the operation.

He thanked the Security Service of Ukraine, Unmanned Systems Forces, Special Operations Forces, military intelligence, and Foreign Intelligence Service for their involvement.

“The billions of dollars” generated by such facilities help sustain Russia’s military machine, Zelenskyy said, framing the strikes as part of Ukraine’s effort to reduce Russia’s ability to finance and wage its war.

He also said Moscow should end its war rather than build layered air defenses using systems taken from other Russian regions.

Russian authorities report casualties

Russian officials claimed the overnight attack caused two deaths and six injuries across Moscow Oblast.

Governor Andrei Vorobyov claimed Russian air defenses and electronic warfare systems intercepted or suppressed 249 drones across 17 municipal districts between 3 and 5 a.m.

Vorobyov also claimed that a drone strike in Sofyino damaged six apartments in a three-story building, killing a 44-year-old woman and injuring five people. Another person was reportedly killed in a private house in the Orekhovo-Zuyevsky district.

In Ramenskoye, Russian authorities reported a fire at a 21-story apartment building and said about 400 people were evacuated.

Sobyanin separately claimed that the attack was intended to disrupt Russia’s State Duma elections, which were taking place on 20 September. Ukrainian authorities did not say that this was the purpose of the strikes.

Russia has begun using large numbers of a missile originally designed as a training target for air-defense crews, despite the weapon being significantly less accurate than the ballistic missiles Russia normally uses for precision strikes. The RM48U is now being launched against targets in Ukraine from S-400 air-defense systems.

The development comes as Russia has sharply increased its use of ballistic missiles against Ukrainian cities in recent months, while Ukraine faces a critical shortage of the interceptors needed to defend against them. Russian forces had more than tripled their monthly ballistic missile launches between April and July, according to Ukrainian military intelligence, as Ukraine's stocks of Patriot interceptors have dwindled.

More than half of the 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles Russia launched in July and the first eight days of August were RM48Us, according to Ukrainian data reviewed by Reuters in an investigation published on 18 September.

A training missile turned into an inaccurate weapon

The RM48U was originally developed as a training target to help Russian air-defense crews practice intercepting incoming threats. It was not designed as a precision ground-attack missile.

Ukrainian investigators told Reuters that the missile is less powerful and less accurate than the Iskander, Russia's main short-range ballistic missile. They estimate that RM48Us deviate from their intended targets by around 300 meters on average.

The missiles nevertheless follow a high-speed ballistic trajectory when used in combat, making them difficult for Ukrainian air defenses to intercept.

Russia launches the RM48U from S-400 systems, repurposing part of its air-defense arsenal for offensive strikes.

Russia is using inaccurate missiles at scale

The number of RM48U launches increased sharply during the summer.

Russia launched 158 ballistic and hypersonic missiles against Ukraine in July, according to Ukrainian data reviewed by Reuters. Of those, 87 were RM48Us.

Russia then launched another 36 RM48Us among 70 ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired during the first eight days of August.

July was the highest month for Russian ballistic and hypersonic missile launches since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to the Ukrainian data.

The surge in RM48U use also coincided with a major decline in Russia's use of Iskanders. Russia launched more than 100 Iskanders in June but only 38 in July.

The shift indicates that Russia is using the less capable RM48U to sustain its ballistic missile campaign to continue causing indiscriminate destruction in Ukrainian cities while conserving more capable weapons.

RUSI analyst Sidharth Kaushal told Reuters that this allows Russia to preserve missiles such as Iskanders, as well as other more advanced weapons, for future attacks.

Less accurate does not mean less dangerous

The RM48U's poor accuracy has already had deadly consequences.

Ukrainian investigators concluded that an RM48U struck a railway platform in the Brovary district of Kyiv Oblast on 5 August, killing eight people. 

According to Ukrainian prosecutors cited by Reuters, the missile's warhead also scatters metal fragments over a wide area.

The attack illustrates the danger of Russia using a weapon that was never designed for precision strikes in populated areas. Even when the missile misses its intended target, its large deviation can leave civilians and civilian infrastructure within the affected area.

Russia denies deliberately targeting civilians and says it strikes military and other strategic targets.

Russia plans to produce more

Ukraine's military intelligence told Reuters that Russia plans to produce 480 RM48U missiles in 2026, more than twice the 200 produced last year.

That would give Russia a growing supply of a relatively simple ballistic weapon that can be used alongside its more sophisticated missiles.

The large-scale deployment of the RM48U represents a new development in Russia's ballistic campaign: a missile built to serve as a training target for air-defense crews is now being used as an offensive weapon against Ukraine.

At a time when Ukraine is struggling to replenish the scarce interceptors needed to stop Russia’s ballistic missiles, Moscow is expanding the range of weapons it can use to strike Ukrainian cities, killing more civilians and destroying more civilian infrastructure with each escalation.

Russia has placed the Russian assets of French retailer Auchan, Swiss food giant Nestlé, and the former Leroy Merlin chain under temporary management, stripping the companies of effective control over their businesses in the country.

Foreign companies have long been urged to leave Russia because their continued operations generate revenue for a state waging war against Ukraine. They also face growing risks of asset seizure, legal and financial liabilities, and reputational damage as the Kremlin increasingly uses foreign-owned businesses as political leverage.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the decree on 17 September, transferring the assets to L.E.V. Management, a little-known Russian company. The decree also covers Russian assets linked to French logistics companies FM Logistic and Bati Logistics.

The measure does not formally change ownership. However, the companies' Russian assets are now controlled by the Kremlin-appointed administrator, and similar temporary-management arrangements have previously preceded forced sales or transfers to Russian buyers.

L.E.V. Management is headed by Andrei Krayushkin, a Russian Interior Ministry major general who previously served as first deputy head of the ministry's migration department.

According to Reuters, the Kremlin justified the move by pointing to the companies' ties to countries Russia considers "unfriendly." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the countries involved are actively supporting Ukraine and participating in actions against Russia.

Companies warned they could lose their assets

The move comes after years of warnings to Western companies that remained in Russia carried an increasing risk of expropriation.

Denys Svyrydenkov, a representative of the B4Ukraine coalition, told Euromaidan Press that the organization had repeatedly contacted Auchan, Nestlé, and Leroy Merlin, warning them that their Russian assets could be seized.

"We repeatedly warned these companies about the serious and growing risks of continuing to operate in Russia, including the possibility of losing their businesses through nationalisation," Svyrydenkov said.

According to Svyrydenkov, the companies defended their continued presence in Russia by arguing that they provided essential goods and protected the livelihoods of Russian employees.

He rejected both arguments, saying Russia is largely self-sufficient in food and that Western sanctions do not prevent food or humanitarian goods from reaching the country. He also pointed to Russia's severe labor shortage and historically low unemployment, arguing that alternative employment opportunities are widely available.

"By staying, they were effectively running businesses that were no longer truly theirs," Svyrydenkov said.

Auchan and Nestlé remained in Russia

The three companies took different approaches after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Auchan did not leave Russia and continued operating its large retail network. It currently has around 230 stores across 100 Russian cities. The chain's Russian turnover reached 127 billion rubles ($1.5 billion) in the first half of 2026, according to The Moscow Times.

Nestlé also remained, but reduced its Russian operations. The company halted investments, withdrew some brands including KitKat and Nesquik, and said it did not intend to profit from its Russian business. It still operates six production sites in Russia, making products including coffee, confectionery, baby food, and pet food.

Leroy Merlin's owner announced its departure from Russia in 2023. Its Russian legal entity was renamed Le Monlid, while its stores now operate under the Lemana Pro brand.

Nestlé said on 18 September that it was assessing its options and would take "all necessary steps" to protect its rights and ensure business continuity, particularly for its employees.

A warning to companies still operating in Russia

The seizure reflects a broader pattern that has emerged since Russia began using temporary administration to take control of Western-owned businesses.

Companies including Danone, Carlsberg and Finnish energy firm Fortum have previously seen their Russian assets placed under state control. Reuters reported that Russia had seized more than $50 billion in foreign assets by 2025.

Svyrydenkov said the latest move was "more than predictable," arguing that Russia has repeatedly used Western companies' exposure to its domestic market as leverage.

"The Kremlin's seizure of the Russian assets of Auchan, Nestle and the former Leroy Merlin reinforces a reality that has been evident for years: Russia is a hostile and unpredictable environment where foreign companies' assets remain at the mercy of an authoritarian regime," he said.

He warned that companies remaining in Russia face the possibility of sudden expropriation while also continuing to generate economic activity inside a country waging war against Ukraine.

"The latest asset seizures should serve as a warning to all companies still operating in Russia: waiting for the Kremlin to decide the fate of your business is not a risk-management strategy," Svyrydenkov said.

Oleshky, a Ukrainian city under Russian occupation in Kherson Oblast, is facing a severe humanitarian crisis, with more than 6,000 people, including around 200 children, potentially trapped there, according to Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.

Civilians are going without food, drinking water, medicine, and other basic necessities while facing daily shelling and drone attacks, Lubinets said.

The crisis has become so desperate that some residents are trying to escape on their own without waiting for an organized evacuation, crossing mined fields because they see no other way out. They risk being killed by mines or Russian drones, but are attempting to leave because staying in Oleshky has become even more dangerous.

“People need to be saved,” Lubinets said, describing the city as a “death trap.”

Thousands remain trapped

Lubinets said his office has received 176 appeals concerning the humanitarian situation in the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson Oblast and has verified 358 people who urgently need assistance to safely leave the area.

He stressed that these are only people his office has managed to identify. Based on the population of Oleshky and the surrounding area, more than 6,000 people may still remain there, including around 200 children, he said.

The civilians remaining in the city are effectively in a “gray zone,” according to Lubinets. They face daily shelling and drone attacks while lacking food, drinking water, medicine, and other essential assistance.

“The stories make your blood run cold. And so there is only one task — to get our people out of this deadly danger,” Lubinets said.

“There is real hunger there”

Other reporting indicates that the shortages have persisted for months. According to Kherson Regional Military Administration head Oleksandr Prokudin, food deliveries to Oleshky have almost completely stopped, while Russian forces prevent residents from evacuating.

Natalia Soboleva, an Odesa volunteer who tracks the situation in Oleshky, told Espreso that residents are gathering grass and searching through destroyed basements for food.

“There is hunger there, real hunger,” she said.

The blockade has also affected humanitarian efforts. Soboleva said Russian forces attacked humanitarian vehicles attempting to bring food and water into the city. During the latest reported attempt on 1 September, Russian troops shelled four volunteer vehicles.

The crisis in Oleshky has been independently documented by international organizations and media. The UN, Human Rights Watch and the OSCE have all reported severe shortages of food and medical care, dangerous conditions for civilians, and restrictions on humanitarian aid and evacuation.

Russia has not confirmed evacuation, so civilians risk mines to escape

The ombudsman said some people are now trying to leave independently. They are crossing mined areas despite the risk of being killed by a mine or targeted by a drone because they do not see another way to escape.

This desperation has also been documented by Human Rights Watch, which said there is no organized evacuation route from Oleshky and that people attempting to leave face Russian military checkpoints and a dangerous journey through occupied territory.

Lubinets said Ukraine has been pressing for an organized humanitarian evacuation.

Ukraine and Russia had previously reached agreements and established clear procedures for such a mission, he said. Lubinets also secured the International Committee of the Red Cross’ readiness to participate within its mandate.

Ukraine prepared a list of people for evacuation and coordinated with its Security and Defense Forces to establish a ceasefire during the humanitarian mission.

But Russia has not confirmed its readiness to carry out the evacuation, according to Lubinets.

Months ago, he said, he informed international organizations, including the United Nations and the ICRC headquarters in Geneva, about the critical situation and called for assistance to prevent mass deaths.

Lubinets said his office continues to collect and verify information and coordinate with the ICRC, international organizations and Ukrainian authorities. It is also continuing to press Russia for an urgent evacuation of civilians remaining in Oleshky.

The situation is difficult to independently verify because Oleshky is under Russian occupation and access to the city is severely restricted. But reports of the humanitarian crisis have been corroborated by the UN, Human Rights Watch, the OSCE and other international organizations, as well as Ukrainian and international media.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says Europe will provide Ukraine with another €3.3 billion for missiles and drones as Russia intensifies attacks on Kyiv and seeks to make daily life in Ukraine's cities impossible.

Ukraine has repeatedly appealed to its partners for more air defense as Russia develops increasingly sophisticated ways to attack Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine’s stocks of air-defense interceptors have fallen to critically low levels.

Following a call with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, von der Leyen said the EU would disburse the funds on 18 September. She also said the EU had approved funding for Patriot air defense systems through its Ukraine Support Loan.

Ukraine needs more air defense

Russia has increasingly combined large numbers of attack drones with ballistic and cruise missiles, forcing Ukraine to defend vast areas while facing shortages of high-end interceptors.

The most difficult targets are Russia’s ballistic missiles, which can reach Ukrainian cities within minutes and require specialized systems such as Patriot to intercept. Ukraine has repeatedly called for more Patriot batteries and interceptors as Russia increases missile attacks.

Ukraine also needs additional air defense capabilities to counter Russia’s increasingly sophisticated drone attacks. Russia is deploying faster, more advanced Geran-type drones that are more difficult to intercept, increasing pressure on Ukraine’s already limited air-defense stocks.

Von der Leyen said the EU had approved funding for Patriot systems last week, but acknowledged that “clearly more is needed.”

The new €3.3 billion package will fund the procurement of missiles and drones for Ukraine, strengthening its ability to defend against Russian attacks.

I just had a phone call with President @ZelenskyyUa.

Tomorrow we will disburse €3.3 billion for missile and drones in Ukraine.

Full read-out ↓https://t.co/UYDT9vn3zC

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) September 17, 2026

Europe proposes joint air defense development

Von der Leyen also announced that the EU is prepared to use remaining funds from its Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program to launch a new joint EU-Ukraine defense initiative.

The proposed program would focus on developing a European air and missile defense system, building on the jointly developed anti-ballistic Freya system.

The goal is to combine Ukraine’s battlefield experience and defense innovation with European technology and industrial capacity, according to von der Leyen.

The announcement comes as Ukraine is trying to strengthen its air defenses ahead of another winter of Russian attacks, when strikes against energy and other critical infrastructure could have an especially severe impact on civilians.

Von der Leyen calls for broader support

Von der Leyen said the EU has already mobilized nearly €15 billion for Ukraine in 2026, with additional support planned. She added that “more is coming.”

She also said Ukraine needs to complete reforms in the Verkhovna Rada to unlock further funding and continue its path toward EU membership.

“Europe is stepping up,” von der Leyen said. “Now others must step up their support too.”

Donetsk Oblast’s preliminary economic losses from Russia’s full-scale invasion exceeded 1.08 trillion hryvnias ($26 billion) as of 1 August 2026, according to data provided by the Donetsk Regional Military Administration to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Donbas.Realities project.

Donetsk Oblast has been at the center of Russia’s war against Ukraine since 2014, with the frontline running through the region and Ukrainian-controlled towns facing daily Russian attacks since 2022. Only about 30% of the oblast remains under Ukrainian control.

Industry accounts for most losses

According to the administration, businesses in the region’s real economy suffered more than 1.08 trillion hryvnias in losses, including lost profits, Donbas.Realities reported.

Industry accounted for 909.4 billion hryvnias ($22 billion) of the estimate, while the electricity and gas sectors suffered 156.5 billion hryvnias ($3.8 billion) in losses.

Agriculture accounted for 11.8 billion hryvnias ($285 million), transport for 1.5 billion hryvnias ($36 million), and other sectors for another 1 billion hryvnias ($24 million).

The losses among businesses operating in the social sphere were separately estimated at 100 million hryvnias ($2.4 million).

Full extent of damage remains unknown

The administration said its Department of Economy is collecting and consolidating information on losses caused by Russia’s invasion.

The regional administration said the figure is likely incomplete, as ongoing fighting and the scale of destruction make it impossible to determine the full extent of the damage.

“Determining the full extent of material damage caused in Donetsk Oblast is currently impossible,” the administration said, citing ongoing hostilities, the scale of destruction, limited access to damaged or destroyed sites, and the loss of documentation from occupied territories and areas of active fighting.

The administration emphasized that the figures are preliminary estimates and do not represent the region’s full material losses.

A final assessment can only be made after the security situation stabilizes and temporarily occupied territories are liberated, allowing authorities to properly document and assess the damage, it said.

Most of Donetsk Oblast remains under Russian control

About 30% of Donetsk Oblast remains under Ukrainian control, according to the regional administration.

The region has been a major battlefield throughout the full-scale war, with Russian forces continuing to attack Ukrainian-controlled areas while large parts of the region remain occupied.

The scale of the damage in Donetsk Oblast forms part of the much broader economic cost of Russia’s invasion. At the beginning of 2026, Ukrainian authorities and international organizations estimated Ukraine’s overall losses since the start of the full-scale invasion at more than $195 billion, Donbas.Realities reported.

Russia killed the captain of a Tanzanian-flagged civilian vessel and wounded three crew members in a drone strike in the Black Sea on 17 September, Ukraine’s Ministry for Restoration, Infrastructure and Transport said.

The ministry said Russia is “systematically attacking Ukrainian ports, port infrastructure and civilian commercial vessels,” threatening both people and international shipping in the Black Sea.

The vessel was heading toward one of Ukraine’s ports when it was attacked. The condition of the ship is still being assessed.

Foreign vessels repeatedly targeted

The latest attack follows a series of Russian strikes on foreign-flagged vessels serving Ukrainian ports.

In July, Russia struck the Turkish-owned bulk carrier GOLDEN LEO with cruise missiles as it left Odesa carrying grain, killing 10 people.

Russia also attacked two foreign-flagged cargo ships with drones in June, killing one sailor and injuring five others as the vessels were leaving Ukrainian ports.

In August, a Russian strike on port infrastructure in Odesa damaged a Togo-flagged civilian vessel and injured four people.

Attacks threaten Ukraine’s maritime trade

The repeated attacks have also disrupted Ukraine’s maritime trade route.

In July, Russian strikes on civilian cargo ships brought traffic through the Black Sea corridor close to a standstill at the height of the harvest, with shipowners temporarily stopping vessels from entering Ukrainian ports.

The Ukrainian ministry called for an international response and coordinated action to strengthen the protection of civilian shipping and the security of international logistics routes.

Ukraine has received the bodies of 252 people killed in the war, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported on 17 September.

The return of the dead remains one of the few channels that still functions between Kyiv and Moscow during Russia’s war against Ukraine. Each handover allows families of missing Ukrainians to identify and bury their relatives.

According to the Russian side, the bodies belong to Ukrainian citizens, including military personnel. Ukrainian authorities will now carry out forensic examinations and identification procedures to establish the identities of those returned, the Coordination Headquarters said.

Bodies to undergo identification

The repatriation was carried out through joint work by Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, the Security Service of Ukraine’s Joint Center, the Armed Forces, Interior Ministry, Ombudsman’s Office, Missing Persons Commissioner’s Secretariat, State Emergency Service, and other security and defense structures.

The International Committee of the Red Cross assisted with the repatriation.

Ukrainian military personnel are transporting the bodies to designated state facilities, where law enforcement and forensic experts will conduct the necessary examinations and identification.

Repatriations continue amid stalled peace talks

The latest repatriation follows the return of 261 bodies to Ukraine on 13 August. 

The return of fallen Ukrainian soldiers has accelerated since peace talks resumed in early 2025 and has become a recurring process, making repatriation operations one of the few areas of continued humanitarian cooperation between Ukraine and Russia amid the war.

Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight on 17 September, striking Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa Oblast, among other regions.

The attack damaged civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, including apartment buildings and educational facilities, while water infrastructure was also affected. Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko reported 20 people injured, including at least two children.

Water infrastructure hit as winter concerns grow

The overnight strikes affected Kyiv’s water infrastructure, temporarily disrupting water supply on the left bank and reducing pressure in some areas on the right bank.

Kyivvodokanal said its specialists restored operations and that water supply is now fully functioning across the capital.

The damage comes as Ukrainian authorities have warned that Russia could target critical water infrastructure as winter approaches, potentially adding another major threat to civilians alongside attacks on Ukraine’s electricity and heating systems.

Russia has repeatedly used winter strikes to target Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, particularly electricity and heating, leaving civilians without power, heat, and basic services during freezing weather. 

This winter is expected to bring a heavier campaign: Russia has intensified its attacks since the summer, increasingly targeting food-related infrastructure and supplies in addition to energy facilities.

No missiles intercepted, once again

Russia launched ballistic and cruise missiles alongside 157 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy drones, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.

The ballistic missiles included Iskander-M, S-400 and North Korean KN-23 missiles launched from Russia’s Bryansk and Voronezh oblasts. Russia also launched four Kalibr cruise missiles and Oniks missiles.

Ukraine’s air defenses reported destroying or suppressing 131 aerial targets, but none of the ballistic weapons were among those intercepted. The 131 targets consisted of seven Bandеrol/Dan-T missiles and 124 Shahed, Gerbera, and other drones.

Once again, Ukraine intercepted none of the Russian ballistic missiles, underscoring the country’s shortage of high-end air-defense interceptors needed to defend against Russia’s increasing ballistic missile attacks.

However, Ukraine’s General Staff reported strikes on two of the S-400 systems that Russia uses to launch ballistic missiles from Bryansk Oblast. 

Kyiv hit across several districts

Kyiv police reported damage in the Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Solomianskyi districts.

Apartment buildings, educational facilities, a municipal building, vehicles, and railway tracks were damaged. Most of the 16 injured people were residents of a damaged 16-story apartment building in Dniprovskyi district.

The victims included a 10-year-old girl and a 12-year-old boy.

Kyiv’s military administration also reported a strike on a warehouse building in Podilskyi district.

Russian attacks on Kyiv have injured 20 people today, with five hospitalized.

A blast wave damaged apartment buildings in the Dniprovskyi district, while a car caught fire at another location.

Scenes like these are becoming a daily occurrence in the capital.

Ukraine’s State… pic.twitter.com/bez0pOPghN

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 17, 2026

The Air Force said Russian missiles and attack drones hit 36 locations across Ukraine, while debris from intercepted targets fell at five locations.

Russia damaged the Berestyn station building and a Kyiv commuter stop in an overnight strike on the railways

A Russian drone hit the station at Berestyn in Kharkiv Oblast before dawn on 17 September, and passengers and staff sat out the attack in shelters, Ukraine's national… pic.twitter.com/OaeAaO58eX

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 17, 2026

Russia also hits Odesa and Zaporizhzhia

Russia’s overnight attack on Odesa Oblast continued for much of the night, injuring seven people, including children aged four and 13, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper reported.

One Russian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in Odesa, destroying 10 apartments on the 14th–16th floors and damaging 11 cars. Three people were injured there, including the four-year-old child. 

Other strikes damaged at least five residential buildings, a kindergarten, a dormitory, a restaurant’s outdoor area, warehouses, garages, and cars. An elderly woman and the 13-year-old child were among four other people injured.

A Russian overnight attack on Odesa Oblast injured 7 people, including 2 children, after a strike hit a 19-story apartment building.

A private home in the region was also destroyed, while a kindergarten, cars, garages, and warehouses were damaged.

Once again, Russian strikes… pic.twitter.com/pHZQlDOcKM

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 17, 2026

Zaporizhzhia was also hit by Russian missiles, with three people injured – a woman and two men. The missiles struck industrial facilities, partially damaging buildings and causing a fire at one site.

Later in the day, Russia attacked the village of Storchove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with guided aerial bombs. One bomb hit a private house and outbuildings, killing a 51-year-old woman and injuring a 70-year-old man. The strike destroyed property the family had accumulated over decades, according to the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration.

Russia also struck a passenger bus in Zaporizhzhia with an FPV drone near a public transport stop. Five people were injured. A regional official said Russia had “once again chosen not a military target, but people who were simply traveling about their business.”

A Russian FPV drone struck a passenger bus carrying people in Zaporizhzhia, right near a public transport stop. Three people were reportedly injured.

“Russians once again chose not a military target, but people who were simply going about their daily lives,” a Zaporizhzhia… pic.twitter.com/VRZcch4PRH

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 17, 2026

Ukrainian forces struck two Russian S-400 launchers in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast on 16–17 September, Ukraine’s General Staff reported. These same systems were used to launch missiles at Kyiv last night.

Ukraine faces severe shortages of high-end air-defense interceptors capable of countering Russia’s ballistic missiles, making strikes on the launchers themselves increasingly important. Russia has used S-400 systems to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, so destroying these systems can reduce Russia’s ability to carry out future attacks.

S-400 missile systems hit

The General Staff said Ukrainian Defense Forces struck two S-400 launchers near Vygonichi in Bryansk Oblast as part of a series of attacks on Russian military targets.

The strikes took place as Russia launched another major overnight attack against Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russian forces used S-400, Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles launched from Bryansk and Voronezh oblasts, among other weapons.

The S-400 is a Russian long-range surface-to-air missile system designed to detect and engage aircraft and missiles. It was originally designed for air defense, but Russia has also used S-400 systems to launch ballistic missiles for strikes against Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv.

Kyiv Oblast was among the main targets of last night’s Russian attack.

Ukraine targets Russian military infrastructure

The S-400 launchers were among several Russian military targets struck by Ukrainian forces on 16–17 September, the General Staff reported.

Near occupied Donetsk, Ukrainian forces hit a Russian site used to store, prepare, and launch attack drones. They also struck Russian logistics warehouses in Kurakhivka, Nova Mariivka, and Luhansk.

Ukrainian forces additionally hit Russian personnel concentration areas near Strilkove in occupied Kherson Oblast and Druzhne in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

The General Staff said operations against key Russian military targets are continuing.

Pro-Ukrainian partisan movement ATESH says it sabotaged the power supply to a Russian semiconductor plant in Voronezh that produces electronic components used in Russia’s missiles and air defense systems.

Targeting such suppliers can hit Russia’s ability to sustain its missile campaign: disrupting production of critical electronic components can slow the replenishment of weapons used to strike Ukrainian cities.

In a statement published on 16 September, ATESH said one of its agents infiltrated an electrical substation near the Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant-Sbor­ka (VZPP-S) and destroyed the main distribution cabinet supplying the facility. The movement said the agent escaped the city after the operation.

VZPP-S is a Russian producer of semiconductor devices, integrated circuits and power modules. Ukraine’s military intelligence lists the company as part of Russia’s defense-industrial supply chain and says it has produced electronic components for Kh-101 cruise missiles, Iskander-K missiles and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems.

ATESH claimed the sabotage caused a major voltage surge and shut down production workshops. The movement said full power was not restored for several weeks, causing delays in deliveries of components for Russian weapons and, consequently, delays in missile and air defense production.

The movement’s claims have not been independently verified.

Ukrainian partisans claim they knocked out power to a Russian plant supplying electronics for Kh-101 and Iskander-K missiles.

The target is part of the industrial chain that keeps Russia’s missile strikes on Ukrainian cities supplied – and ATESH says production was disrupted for… pic.twitter.com/afbJonCxQT

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 16, 2026

ATESH is a pro-Ukrainian partisan movement operating in Russian-occupied territories and inside Russia. It says it recruits local residents and Russian military personnel to conduct sabotage, gather intelligence and pass information to Ukraine. The movement regularly publishes claims of attacks and acts of sabotage against Russian military and defense-industrial targets, though individual operations are often difficult to independently verify.

The plant has already been targeted

The reported sabotage comes after the VZPP-S facility was struck in a Ukrainian attack in June.

Ukraine’s military intelligence says VZPP-S produces components for the Kh-101, including transistor assemblies and matrices used in the missile’s electronic systems. It also says the company supplies semiconductor components for the onboard computer of the 9M727 cruise missile used by the Iskander-K system, as well as components for the Pantsir-S1’s television channel.

Ukraine's General Staff has confirmed the attack on the chip plant in Voronezh.

Videos from the site show at least two distinct fires at the facility.https://t.co/5gQVb99HwK

via @bayraktar_1love https://t.co/4lluMzWHRA pic.twitter.com/yBoyuuhbGq

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 22, 2026

The company itself describes VZPP-S as a major Russian producer of electronic components, with more than 900 products in serial production.

ATESH said it delayed publication of its claim to protect its agent.

Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi has disrupted Russia’s plan to encircle Ukraine’s heavily fortified “Fortress Belt” in Donetsk Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed, adding that Ukrainian forces have likely made additional gains beyond those publicly disclosed by Kyiv.

The assessment comes a day after Ukraine’s Third Army Corps publicly confirmed that it is conducting a counteroffensive against Russian forces north and northwest of Lyman. ISW said the Ukrainian gains have rendered Russia's plan to encircle the Fortress Belt from the north and south unfeasible.

Third Army Corps commander Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi said on 15 September that Ukrainian forces had cleared Russian infiltrators from several settlements and liberated Serednie. The corps said its forces had cleared 75 square kilometers of Russian infiltrators and de-occupied another 10 square kilometers during the first phase of the operation.

Biletskyi said the operation, dubbed “Vivaldi,” was conducted under information silence and warned that the first phase was only one of four planned “seasons.”

Ukraine’s gains appear larger than initially disclosed

ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces have likely made additional gains beyond those announced by Biletskyi, with Russian sources beginning to acknowledge the deterioration of their position in the area.

In particular, Russian forces have been shelling Ukrainian positions in Kolodyazi, northeast of Lyman, according to geolocated footage. A prominent Russian milblogger also acknowledged that Russian forces were trying to push Ukrainian troops out of Kolodyazi – what ISW described as a “coy acknowledgement” that Ukrainian forces have likely liberated the settlement.

Russian sources have continued to report worsening conditions for Russian forces both north and south of Kolodyazi.

ISW also corroborated the Third Army Corps’ account of growing Russian logistical problems, noting that Ukrainian strikes have disrupted supplies for Russian forces in the Borova and Lyman directions. The corps said the pressure was severe enough that Russia moved some logistics and support elements across the state border into Russia’s Voronezh Oblast.

Vivaldi disrupts Russia’s plan for the Fortress Belt

The operation’s broader significance lies in its effect on Russia’s campaign in Donetsk.

Russia has made capturing the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast a central military objective, with its forces seeking to advance toward the heavily fortified cities of the Donetsk “Fortress Belt” from several directions.

The Russian military had also sought to create a northern route around the Fortress Belt through the Lyman area. ISW now assesses that Ukraine’s gains north of Lyman have made that plan unfeasible.

The institute said the Ukrainian counteroffensive will delay Russia’s planned offensive toward Sloviansk, the major objective Moscow had been expected to pursue after capturing Lyman.

Russian sources acknowledge setbacks

According to ISW, a prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger similarly acknowledged that Ukraine’s gains will delay the Russian offensive toward Sloviansk and warned that the northern flank of Russian forces operating southeast of Lyman and east of Kramatorsk is now vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks and interdiction.

The Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces had lost positions south of Lyman and were struggling to recapture positions inside the city itself.

Russian sources have blamed the setbacks on the military’s culture of producing “beautiful reports” – exaggerated accounts of battlefield advances that can distort higher-level operational planning.

Another prominent milblogger reportedly claimed that some Russian commanders were attempting to conceal losses by rapidly assembling assault groups from inadequately trained personnel to retake lost positions.

Russia still presses its offensive elsewhere

Despite the setbacks around Lyman, ISW said Russian forces continue prioritizing frontal attacks against the Fortress Belt from the south and efforts to encircle it from the southwest, rather than advancing toward the cities from the east.

The institute said Russia may still be adjusting to the loss of the Lyman salient and the initiative in the area. It also assessed that Russian forces could seek to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication to the Fortress Belt from the west.

For Ukraine, meanwhile, the counteroffensive is also undermining Russia’s ability to present advances in Donetsk as evidence of battlefield momentum.

And the full extent of Vivaldi remains unknown.

Biletskyi said the 85 square kilometers publicly disclosed by the corps represented only the first “season” of the operation, invoking Vivaldi’s Four Seasons.

“Vivaldi, as is known, has four seasons. And this is only the first one,” Biletskyi said on 15 September.

Russian Major General Anton Grunis, the commander who told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russian forces had fully captured Kostiantynivka despite Ukrainian troops still defending the city, has been killed in the war against Ukraine, according to Russian media reports.

Grunis was awarded the Hero of Russia title just weeks before his death, after commanding Russian forces on the Kostiantynivka front. He had reported the city’s supposed capture to Putin in July, even as Ukrainian forces continued to hold positions there.

Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), confirmed Grunis’s death on 16 September, saying Ukrainian forces killed the general on 12 September in occupied Donetsk Oblast.

Madyar said the operation was carried out by the “Rarog” unit of Ukraine’s 427th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems. 

Several Russian sources have also confirmed Grunis’s death, according to Ukrainska Pravda and RBC-Ukraine.

Madyar said Grunis is the seventh confirmed Russian commander at the brigade, division, or army level killed by Ukraine’s SBS “Birds” units.

The Russian general who told Putin that Russian forces had captured Kostiantynivka has been killed in Ukraine.

Major General Anton Grunis reported the city’s supposed capture to Vladimir Putin in July, in a major announcement Russia presented as a battlefield victory. Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/ba3kzsBJ9p

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 16, 2026

The general who declared Kostiantynivka captured

Grunis commanded Russia’s 4th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, which has been fighting on the Kostiantynivka front, according to Ukrainska Pravda.

In July, Grunis personally reported to Putin that Russian forces had supposedly fully captured Kostiantynivka. Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov made a similar claim.

Ukraine rejected the announcement, saying its troops were still conducting defensive operations inside the city. Kostiantynivka remains contested as of 16 September.

RBC-Ukraine reported that Russian troops have entered parts of the city, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in its southern, central, and northern areas. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 18 Russian attacks on the Kostiantynivka axis over the previous day.

Kostiantynivka is the southernmost major city in Ukraine’s fortified defensive belt in Donetsk Oblast, with Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk farther north. Russia has been trying to capture it since 2025.

Killed weeks after receiving Hero of Russia title

Grunis was awarded Russia’s highest state decoration shortly before his death. On 27 August, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov presented him with the Gold Star of the Hero of the Russian Federation for what Russia described as his “courage and heroism,” according to Ukrainska Pravda.

Grunis graduated from the Kazan Suvorov Military School in 1996 and fought in Chechnya and against Georgia, Ukrainska Pravda reported. He retired from active service in 2021 but returned to the Russian military after the start of the full-scale invasion.

The 4th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade was formed in 2014 from Russian-backed armed formations in occupied Luhansk, including the Prizrak group, before being integrated into Russia’s regular military structure, according to Ukrainska Pravda.