French President Emmanuel Macron is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris on the evening of 3 September, a day before the “Coalition of the Willing” summit scheduled for 4 September, according to an undisclosed source at the Élysée Palace cited by European Pravda.

The meeting comes as Ukraine continues to press for security guarantees from Western allies amid efforts towards a ceasefire with Russia.

The Paris summit will bring together countries ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached, with the aim of coordinating technical and strategic measures to strengthen Ukraine’s defense and support the enforcement of peace efforts.

A French official told European Pravda that the talks aim to convey that the countries ready and able to provide security guarantees have completed their planning. They said that chiefs of staff and defense ministers have already completed the necessary groundwork.

“Today we are ready to provide these security guarantees,” the official said, adding that the effort also includes support for applying pressure on Russia to achieve a ceasefire.

The “Coalition of the Willing” summit will take place in a hybrid format under the joint leadership of Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is expected to join. 

Discussions are likely to cover potential deployment of peacekeeping forces, as highlighted recently by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda.

This meeting follows earlier efforts by Ukraine to secure Western security guarantees. Western nations are continuing to develop frameworks for post-ceasefire security in Ukraine, but many believe that a ceasefire remains unlikely in the near term. 

The upcoming Paris talks are seen as a continuation of these efforts, providing Ukraine with a platform to push for concrete commitments on security guarantees and measures to strengthen pressure on Russia.

Ukraine’s state defense group Ukroboronprom has revealed the specifications of its updated “Palianytsia” kamikaze drone at the MSPO international defense exhibition in Kielce, Poland, according to Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi.

The upgraded drone gives Ukraine a long-range, domestically produced option for striking stationary land and naval targets deep inside Russian territory. It was developed in response to restrictions on the use of Western long-range missiles and reflects ongoing efforts to scale production and reduce costs.

The Palianytsia is not a new weapon – Ukraine first unveiled it in 2024, and it has already seen combat. Ukrainian officials say it was created out of urgent necessity, while its cost-effective design offers a long-range alternative to Western missiles.

The redesigned “Palianytsia”

The new model, presented a year after the drone’s initial debut, features redesigned wings, a longer fuselage, and modified tail surfaces. It measures 3.5 meters long with a 1.7-meter wingspan and weighs 320 kilograms, one third of which is a 100-kilogram warhead.

The drone can fly up to 650 kilometers at speeds of 900 km/h and operates at altitudes between 15 and 500 meters. It is powered by a turbojet engine and launched with a solid-fuel booster. Navigation combines inertial guidance, resistant to electronic jamming, with satellite correction for accuracy.

Proven in combat

The developers describe the drone as intended to strike targets deep behind enemy lines, including stationary land and naval positions. Its first reported combat deployment was on 24 August 2024. Details of that strike were not disclosed, but officials have announced plans to scale up production and reduce costs. 

The name “Palianytsia” comes from a traditional Ukrainian bread. During the war, it has taken on symbolic meaning, since Ukrainians can pronounce it easily while Russians often struggle – turning it into a cultural marker of identity and resistance.

At MSPO, the drone was displayed alongside other systems. Poland’s WB Group showcased a mock-up of its “Lanca” cruise missile, while Ukrainian company Ukrainian Armor presented the “Krechet,” a mobile command unit that integrates air-defense systems, mobile fire teams, and radars.

Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office and intelligence agencies have issued a warning: Russia is attempting to recruit citizens via social media for espionage and sabotage. These so-called “single-use agents” are lured into committing crimes on behalf of foreign intelligence services.

How the recruitment scheme works

According to German intelligence, malicious actors initiate casual conversations on social networks, assess the user’s political stance, and later offer money for criminal acts — such as property damage.

“Anyone who agrees becomes an ‘agent’ of another state… Behind these recruitment attempts may stand foreign intelligence services. Their goal is to destabilize Germany using people within the country,” the agencies cautioned.

Military facilities in focus

Authorities stress that Russian intelligence is particularly interested in military bases and sites where Ukrainian soldiers are being trained.

“Perpetrators hope to gain strategic advantages by spying on such facilities or disrupting their operations… Successful sabotage could severely damage military structures and undermine trust in the state,” the statement reads.

This represents a classic case of hybrid warfare, where an enemy seeks to weaken its opponent without direct confrontation.

Harsh punishment for “agents”

German citizens are urged not to fall for such recruitment attempts and to remember the consequences. “Anti-constitutional sabotage” in Germany carries a penalty of up to five years in prison, while “espionage activities” can result in up to ten years.

If crimes are proven to be carried out in the interests of a foreign intelligence service, the punishment is even harsher. 

Desperate to staunch the bloodletting around Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, the Kremlin rushed in reinforcements. A lot of them.

But those reinforcements—the best of Russia’s available naval infantry and airborne forces—are already suffering heavy casualties in a sector they clearly do not understand. Attacking in armored vehicles along drone-patrolled roads just east of Pokrovsk on the evening of Aug. 28, the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade was immediately spotted from the air by the Ukrainian state security service’s Ivan Franko Group.

The Ivan Franko Group attacked with its own explosive first-person-view drones—and also called in rockets from nearby High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. The combined firepower “inflicted devastating losses on the enemy’s assault armored group, which ultimately could not reach the forward positions of the 79th [Air Assault] Brigade and was completely defeated,” the Ivan Franko Group reported.

The group counted five destroyed vehicles and two abandoned ones. “The enemy’s manpower losses as a result of the complex strike of FPV and HIMARS amounted to 50 to 100 men,” the group claimed. See the official video below.

It was a swift and bloody setback for Russia’s best effort to shift the battlefield momentum around Pokrovsk back in its own favor.

For more than a year now, a Russian force with at least eight corps and field armies, together overseeing dozens of regiments are brigades each with potentially thousands of troops, has been trying—and mostly failing—to capture a chain of Ukrainian cities stretching from Pokrovsk to Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine Donetsk Oblast.

The Russian 51st Combined Arms Army came close to closing a pincer around Pokrovsk and cutting off one of its two main supply routes in early August, when its 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade slipped thousands of troops past undermanned Ukrainian trenches northeast of Pokrovsk.

They marched 15 km toward the village of Dobropillya, which sits astride the T0515 road, Pokrovsk’s easternmost main supply route.

A brief-lived salient

But the Russians underestimated the strength of the Ukrainians’ reserves. Ukrainian commanders had made the deliberate decision to leave some trenches empty in order to buy time for certain brigades to rebuild. “It was a sacrifice,” American analyst Andrew Perpetua explained. “Sacrifice ground for time while refitting and then you can attack later.”

A dozen or so Ukrainian brigades, regiments and battalions, some fighting under the command of the national guard’s new 1st Azov Corps, assaulted the Dobropillya salient from both sides with drones, tanks, armed ground vehicles and infantry—and quickly destroyed the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade, likely inflicting thousand of casualties.

Rather than accepting defeat in the Dobropillya salient, the Kremlin scraped forces from Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine as well as from the front stretching from Kursk Oblast in western Russia to Sumy Oblast in northern Ukraine—and sent them to Pokrovsk.

The reinforcements include no fewer than five Russian marine and airborne brigades, regiments and divisions including the ill-fated 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. The units that have been fighting around Pokrovsk learned the hard way, many months ago, that armored vehicles simply cannot survive on the roads threading toward the city. Their biggest successes have resulted from swift motorcycle assaults and hard-to-spot infiltrations by small groups of infantry.

The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade moved out in at least one tracked BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle and other armored vehicles along with a few bikes, winding through a village—Malynivka—the has been under bombardment by Ukrainian air force jets lobbing American-made Joint Direct Attack Munition precision bombs.

Their inexperience and recklessness doomed them—and wasted the Kremlin’s first attempt to preserve what little is left of the Russians’ Dobropillya salient. But the Ivan Franko Group, for one, isn’t surprised. “The enemy will continue to try to carry out meaty assaults on our positions,” the group mused.

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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that geographical distance provides no security guarantee against Russian threats, citing missile technology that can reach European capitals within minutes.

“We are all very close, particularly in the context of the latest Russian missile technologies. For example, the difference now between Lithuania and Luxembourg, The Hague or Madrid is five to ten minutes – that’s how long it takes for a missile to reach these parts of Europe,” Rutte said during a joint press conference in Luxembourg with Prime Minister Luc Frieden and Defense Minister Yuriko Backes, according to Ukrinform.

The NATO chief emphasized that member states should abandon any sense of safety based on distance from Russia. “We are all under direct threat from the Russians. We are all now on the eastern flank, regardless of whether we live in London or Tallinn – there is no longer any difference,” he added.

Rutte’s comments came as he confirmed US commitment to NATO interests and Washington’s recognition of “the existence of a long-term Russian threat to the entire Alliance, to the entire Euro-Atlantic.”

The Secretary General described deep American understanding of interconnected security concerns. “They deeply understand, and I feel this from all my conversations in Washington, that safe United States needs a safe Atlantic, safe Europe and safe Arctic, because otherwise the United States itself, even the mainland, will be under threat,” he said.

Rutte also addressed the incident involving European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s aircraft, which experienced navigation problems due to suspected Russian interference. The NATO chief stressed that the Alliance takes this “very seriously” and is “strengthening the response to hybrid and cyber threats.”

Financial Times and Reuters reported that on 31 August, the aircraft carrying von der Leyen to the Bulgarian city of Plovdiv lost electronic navigation systems while approaching the city airport. According to unnamed officials, the GPS signal in the entire airport zone was disabled, which was interpreted as a Russian interference operation.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden announced his country’s intention to join NATO’s PURL initiative (Priority Ukraine Requirements List) to purchase weapons in the US and transfer them to Ukraine, Ukrinform reported.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz escalated his criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him “perhaps the most serious war criminal of our time” in an interview with Sat.1 television, according to ntv.

“He is a war criminal. He is perhaps the most serious war criminal of our time that we are currently seeing on a large scale,” Merz said in the interview. “And we must simply be clear about how to deal with war criminals. There is no place for leniency here.”

The CDU leader’s characterization represents a new level of personal condemnation of the Russian president. While Merz has previously accused Russia as a state of “serious war crimes” and “terrorism against the civilian population” during his tenure as chancellor, his direct personal labeling of Putin as potentially the era’s worst war criminal marks an unprecedented escalation in his rhetoric.

The comments come as international legal proceedings against Putin continue. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president in connection with the illegal deportation of children from Ukraine.

The arrest warrant has complicated diplomatic efforts. Austria’s Foreign Ministry recently stated the country would be willing to host negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian leaders to end the war. Vienna indicated it could conduct consultations with the International Criminal Court to coordinate issues regarding Putin’s arrest warrant and avoid his detention during any potential visit.

Merz’s remarks reflect the ongoing international debate over how to engage with Russian leadership while war crimes proceedings remain active. His insistence that “leniency” has no place in dealing with war criminals signals Germany’s hardening stance toward diplomatic accommodation with Moscow.

The interview represents one of the strongest personal condemnations of Putin by a major European leader since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began.

The UK is set to unveil additional sanctions targeting Russia, Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in Parliament on Wednesday, Sky News reports.

The new measures are expected to target individuals profiting from Russian oil. Lammy said that an announcement would be made “very shortly,” without providing further details.

Lammy highlighted Britain’s previous measures, including lowering the Russian oil price cap – a move designed to limit Moscow’s revenue from exports while avoiding major disruptions to global energy markets – which he described as “essential.”

He also noted Britain’s role in enacting what he described as the “largest package of sanctions anywhere in the world against Putin’s war machine.”

This development comes as the European Union is discussing its 19th sanctions package, which may include secondary sanctions on countries aiding Moscow.

Ukraine is carrying out a multibillion-dollar arms buildup program, funded by Europe. The plan is seen as the best chance to defend against Russia amid reduced American aid and uncertainty over Western security guarantees, reports The New York Times.

Best security guarantee for Ukraine? 

Under this plan, the focus will be on developing Ukraine’s domestic defense industry. In particular, at the end of August, Ukraine began production of its long-range cruise missile, the Flamingo.

This domestically produced missile has a flight range exceeding 3,000 km and carries a 1,150 kg warhead. The company that designed them, FirePoint, also manufactures the FP-series drones. It is now actively scaling the Flamingo project alongside its drone production. FP-1 drones have been used against targets in Russia since at least 2024.

According to Maksym Skrypchenko, president of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, Ukraine’s own missile program could be the country’s best security guarantee.

“The whole model is that we get contracts, written agreements, that state we will have this number of weapons provided to Ukraine by this year, from the United States, from the Europeans,” Skrypchenko said.

He is confident that Moscow can be deterred from a new attack if Ukraine possesses several hundred long-range ballistic missiles.

Technological advantage

The Ukrainian army is unlikely to match Russia in troop numbers, which is why increasing weapons production makes sense. However, it is still unclear how far this military buildup can go. European countries are already facing budgetary difficulties, which could limit the level of support Ukraine expects.

Building security shield from Russia 

Discussions over security guarantees have not yet produced significant results. Meanwhile, Russia is attempting to disrupt them, demanding a voice in certain matters, the report emphasizes.

This is why Ukraine is focusing on developing its own security guarantees. Producing Ukrainian weapons and purchasing Western arms are areas over which Russia can have almost no influence.

“This is not something the Russians can really discuss. That’s our advantage,” Aliona Hetmanchuk, Head of Ukraine’s Mission to NATO, told journalists.

Planning the production scales

Recent pledges from Germany and Norway to provide up to $10 billion in military and civilian aid to Ukraine next year indicate that Europe is ready to meet this challenge. These large sums mark a turning point, as previously Western partners provided smaller, short-term financial allocations.

Analysts told journalists that larger financial packages could help Ukraine better plan the long-term task of arming its army.

Meanwhile, Russia is showing no sign of intention to end the war in Ukraine. In recent months, Putin has only:

• intensified its attacks on Ukraine, killing more civilians than in 2024
• deployed nearly 100,000 troops to Donetsk Oblast
• refused to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
• continued strengthening ties with its main economic partner, China. 

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on Tuesday that Western countries are continuing to develop a framework for security guarantees for Ukraine, Reuters reports.

The discussions are focused on planning security arrangements for Ukraine after a potential ceasefire, with Western officials working to ensure protection without provoking further escalation.

Stubb added that any Western security measures would depend on a peace agreement with Russia, but he said he is not optimistic a ceasefire will be achieved soon.

Russia’s repeated rejection of Western security proposals for Ukraine puts the process in doubt. European leaders have emphasized that Moscow’s consent is essential. 

Stubb said coordination with the United States is central, as it would provide the main support for any post-ceasefire security arrangement. “We are working closely with our military chiefs to draw up concrete plans for what these security operations could look like,” he said.

German officials have previously stressed that Ukraine would need NATO-style security guarantees before any peace deal. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin says the EU has no reason to worry about potential Moscow aggression. He denies that the Kremlin is preparing for an attack and says that under US President Donald Trump, America began to “listen to Russia,” reports the pro-Kremlin outlet RIA Novosti.

Putin made these statements during a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in China. 

On 31 August, he arrived in China, Russia’s main economic partner, which provides the Kremlin with unprecendent support during its war against Ukraine, on a four-day visit. It came just as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop the war has expired.

Trump’s deadline and Russia’s new attacks

Putin claims that any talk about Moscow planning to attack the EU is “Western fiction.”

“They are specialists in fairy tales and horror movies. Any rational person perfectly understands that Russia is not going to attack anyone,” he said.

Before the beginning of Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine in 2022, Putin also repeatedly denied any plans for an attack or invasion in his official statements. Russian officials consistently rejected accusations of preparing military actions against Ukraine, calling the buildup of troops near the border “unfounded tension-mongering.”

It was only on 22 February 2022, that Putin announced the start of the so-called “special military operation” on Ukrainian territory, effectively acknowledging the military actions that had already begun.

The war in Ukraine – “protection of its own interests”

The Russian ruler also justified aggression in Ukraine, claiming that Moscow is allegedly “forced to protect people who tie their fate to Russia.”

“Russia’s only goal in Ukraine is the protection of its own interests,” Putin added.

He also shifted responsibility for attacks on Ukraine on its authorities: “Moscow endured Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy for a long time and then began to respond seriously.”

Lies about EU integration and the Zaporizhzhia NPP

Putin assured that Russia has “never opposed Ukraine’s EU membership” but called Ukraine’s accession to NATO unacceptable. He also allowed for the possibility of a tripartite cooperation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant involving the US and Ukraine.

Experts emphasize that such statements are part of a Kremlin information operation aimed at the West and the Global South, intended to justify three years of aggression and attacks on civilians.

In addition, Putin praised the administration of US President Donald Trump, which refused to provide free aid to Ukraine and introduced no new sanctions against Russia. According to him, under Trump, America began to “listen to Russia,” a claim he said was confirmed by the Alaska summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again lying about strikes on Ukraine. During a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico at the summit in China, he claimed that Russia’s massive attacks were in response to Ukrainian assaults on Russian energy facilities, according to the pro-Kremlin outlet RIA Novosti.

Putin justifies attacks on energy infrastructure

“Moscow endured Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy for a long time, and then began to respond seriously,” Putin said.

Meanwhile, Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, calls his statements a blatant lie, as since 2022, Russia has systematically attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, especially during the preparation for winter and in winter itself.

Attacks on civilians continue

Once again, he tried to shift the responsibility for Russian aggression onto Ukraine, explained Kovalenko. 

“Putin is preparing an informational alibi for strikes on Ukrainian energy. In Beijing, he claimed that Russia ‘never hit energy’ and only responds to Ukrainian attacks on the oil sector. This is false,” he stressed.

Kovalenko added that the Russians strike during the lead-up to winter and directly in winter. This year, they also did not stop attacks on energy in regions bordering Russia.

Kremlin information operation

According to Kovalenko, Putin’s speech in Beijing is part of another Russian information operation aimed at the West and the Global South.

“It is an attempt to shift responsibility for terrorizing Ukrainians onto us,” he claimed.

The Russians were the ones who started the war and attacks on energy, and they have never stopped.

According to the UN, Russia’s war has killed more than 13,800 civilians in Ukraine. Attacks on Ukraine intensified, particularly in 2025, following the launch of peace initiatives by US President Donald Trump.

Russia was not punished with sanctions or any other measures. On the contrary, President Putin was invited to a meeting with Trump in Alaska.

Putin urges Europe to weaponize energy against Ukraine, praises Trump’s inaction

Also, during the meeting with Fico, Putin called “on his friends in Europe” to cut Ukraine’s fuel and electricity supplies, the Kremlin press service reports. The Russian ruler emphasized that Ukraine receives a significant amount of energy resources through its Eastern European neighbors.

“Shut off their gas supplies, shut off their electricity supplies, and they will immediately understand that there are limits to violating others’ interests,” Putin said in a conversation with Robert Fico.

He also praised the administration of US President Donald Trump, which refused to provide free aid to Ukraine and introduced no new sanctions against Russia. According to Putin, under Trump, America began to “listen to Russia,” a claim he said was confirmed by the Alaska summit.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said that the leaders of Ukraine and Russia are “not yet ready” for a face-to-face meeting, Reuters reports.

Previous efforts to bring the two sides together have failed to materialise, with lower-level negotiations showing little progress toward ending the war.

Türkiye supports “raising the level of negotiations gradually”, with the ultimate goal being a direct meeting between the two leaders. Erdoğan believes this to be the only way to achieve concrete results for peace. 

The Turkish president made the comments following his trip to China, where he met with Russian president Vladimir Putin and said he called Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy by phone. 

He also said that the diplomatic path to peace remains open, demonstrated by talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials in Istanbul in recent months. 

Türkiye has taken an active role in mediation since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, keeping channels with both countries open and hosting diplomatic meetings between officials from the two warring countries.

Western sanctions against Russia are working and are already hitting the aggressor’s economy hard, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, which cited declines in key sectors. At the same time, the Kremlin is trying to offset its losses by looting temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands.

Sanctions squeeze the Russian economy

Business activity in Russia continues to fall. The manufacturing PMI, calculated by S&P Global, dropped to 48.7 in August out of 100 points, marking the third consecutive month in contraction territory.

Sunflower oil production in Russia also fell by 11% year-on-year. The coal sector is even worse off: 23 enterprises have halted operations due to the crisis, while 129 mines and open-pit sites, responsible for up to 85% of the country’s coal output, are seeking government support.

Coal and grain from occupied territories

Despite the crisis, Russia is trying to keep its economy afloat by plundering Ukrainian lands. New images from temporarily occupied Mariupol have shown how Russian forces are loading ships with stolen grain and coal. 

“Mariupol port. Two ships are being loaded at the same time… We expect the coal ship to head to the port of Temryuk for export clearance to Algeria, and the bulk carrier with grain to go to Egypt. Looting has predictably resumed,” reported Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of Occupation.

Stolen grain becomes the Kremlin’s business

According to the Center for National Resistance, Russia has turned stolen Ukrainian grain into a global business. Wheat that Moscow claims as “Russian” is purchased by 70 countries, including Egypt, Türkiye, and Iran. 

Russia’s metallurgy industry suffered its worst performance since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with production plummeting 10.2% in July compared to the same month last year, according to Rosstat data cited by Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation.

The metallurgy collapse delivers concrete evidence that Western sanctions are systematically degrading Russia’s capacity to sustain its war against Ukraine and signals that Moscow faces mounting difficulties maintaining current military production levels.

Key metallurgy companies report massive losses

The industry’s flagship enterprises are buckling under the pressure.

Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Plant—a critical supplier for Russia’s defense sector—slashed steel output by 18%. In comparison, Mechel reduced sales by 11% and Tubular Metallurgical Company lost up to 22% of sales. Companies are reporting billion-ruble losses.

Magnitogorsk reported profits plummeting ninefold to 5.6 billion rubles ($62 million) in the first half of 2025, while revenues dropped by a third. The company’s cash flow turned negative, with expenses exceeding income by 4.9 billion rubles (approximately $55 million) in the second quarter alone.

Magnitogorsk supplies steel for armored vehicles and artillery systems, while companies like Tubular Metallurgical produce materials essential for missile manufacturing. Each percentage point of production decline means fewer tanks, shells, and weapons systems reaching Russian forces.

Broader corporate crisis grips Russian economy

The metallurgy sector’s troubles reflect a deeper crisis across Russian industry. According to Rosstat data cited by Izvestia, nearly one-third of Russian companies reported losses in the first half of 2025—the highest level since the pandemic.

Coal mining enterprises suffered the most, along with utilities, transportation, and scientific research businesses—all sectors supporting military-industrial production.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—a key indicator that measures changes in business conditions with readings below 50 signaling declining activity—fell to 47.0 in July for Russian manufacturing, down from 47.5 in June, marking the steepest decline since March 2022.

Sanctions systematically choke supply chains

Already a month ago, Reuters reported companies reducing their production levels, client demand declining, and customers having financial difficulties—all of this impacting both output and new orders.

Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation identified what it called “obvious” causes behind the metallurgy collapse: sanctions, loss of foreign markets, sharp drops in domestic metal demand in construction and machinery, plus restrictive Central Bank policies limiting investment.

Experts cite expensive credit, weak demand, tax increases, sanctions, and rising costs as the main drivers of corporate losses.

Weak demand could leave steelmakers unable to sell up to 6 million tons of production—nearly 10% of last year’s output.

Industry outlook

Severstal CEO Alexander Shevelyov called the second quarter “extremely difficult for the industry,” estimating that weak demand could prevent steelmakers from selling up to 6 million tons of production. This represents a massive loss of potential military materials.

For Ukraine’s allies, the data suggests their sanctions strategy is working as intended—systematically degrading Russia’s long-term military capacity rather than delivering immediate knockout blows.

The Center for Countering Disinformation assessment warns of the collapse risks “mass layoffs, factory shutdowns, and further economic decline in regions critically dependent on metallurgy”—problems that will further constrain Russia’s defense production capacity while creating domestic political pressure on the Kremlin.

Ukrainian forces have successfully cleared Russian troops from the village of Udachne in Donetsk Oblast and raised the Ukrainian flag over the settlement, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces announced on 2 September.

The village sits approximately 10 kilometers west of Pokrovsk, a strategic town that has emerged as one of the most contested areas along Ukraine’s eastern front line.

“Defense forces ‘cleared’ the village of Udachne on the Pokrovsk direction and installed the Ukrainian flag,” the General Staff reported on Facebook.

Military officials confirmed that all Russian strongpoints in the area were destroyed during the operation.

“Over two weeks, assault groups gradually cleared house by house and raised the Ukrainian flag over the village,” according to a video statement released by the armed forces.

The liberation of Udachne comes amid intense fighting across the Pokrovsk direction, where Ukrainian forces repelled 46 assault attempts near the settlements of Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolyubivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, and Dachne, the General Staff reported in its morning briefing on Facebook.

The village belongs to the Udachne territorial community, which has been under severe pressure from Russian forces. As of 11 June 2024, fighting was already underway in Udachne, Novoserhiivka, and Novomykolaivka, according to Valeriy Duhelny, head of the Udachne village military administration, as reported by Suspilne Donbas.

Duhelny had told Suspilne Donbas on 8 June that combat operations and the “gray zone” had reached the borders of Udachne and Novoserhiivka, though none of the seven settlements in the community were officially occupied at that time. He described the eastern part of Udachne as completely destroyed, with no intact buildings remaining after Russian shelling.

Construction sites multiply across Ukraine while factory floors stay empty. The National Bank’s August business survey reveals an economy moving at fundamentally different speeds—a division that signals resilience and vulnerability for the country’s long-term prospects.

Strategic implications emerge immediately

This sectoral divide marks Ukraine’s transition from an export economy to a reconstruction economy—a fundamental shift that may outlast the war.

The data prove that Western allies’ reconstruction aid works exactly as intended: it stimulates domestic activity and maintains consumer confidence. But it also exposes the limits—private industrial investment won’t return until security dramatically improves.

The split offers a roadmap for global businesses watching Ukraine.

The winners: builders and traders

Construction companies hit their fourth month of optimism in August, with their business confidence index reaching 54.0—the only major sector firmly in positive territory.

Builders expect more orders, expanded workforces, and steady material supplies as reconstruction accelerates.

The optimism reflects a geographic shift: Western regions like Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk lead activity as internal migration and safety drive housing demand, while companies struggle with acute labor shortages—over 150,000 missing workers force wage increases of 23%.

Trading firms, such as retailers, food distributors, and consumer goods companies, joined the optimism at 51.8, buoyed by consumer spending and fresh harvest supplies.

These companies have stayed positive for six consecutive months, suggesting Ukrainian purchasing power remains intact. At the same time, the National Bank reports that trading companies express concerns about inventory levels, suggesting supply chain pressures beneath the surface optimism.

The strugglers: factories and services

While construction enjoys predictable six-month order backlogs, manufacturers face an entirely different reality. Manufacturing confidence barely moved to 48.7—still below neutral—as companies grapple with destroyed facilities and an export market collapse.

Services firms scored worst at 47.0, hammered by expensive logistics, electricity price hikes, and chronic staff shortages. Most expect to cut jobs rather than expand.

The economic gamble

Ukraine essentially bets its future on reconstruction while its industrial base hemorrhages capacity. Construction sites signal resilience, but can’t replace the export earnings that once powered the economy.

Whether this proves sustainable depends on donor fatigue, military progress creating safe export corridors, and whether industrial companies can survive long enough to benefit from eventual peace.

For now, the cranes keep rising while factory chimneys stay cold. Ukraine’s economic survival depends on which trend proves more durable.

Exclusives

Ukraine investigates Russian link to assassination of politician who opposed Kremlin for 30 years. Ukrainian police detained a 52-year-old man suspected of assassinating the longtime anti-Kremlin politician who was involved in organizing Ukraine’s biggest pro-democracy revolutions and called for Russia’s “complete destruction” during the full-scale invasion.

A Russian drone boat hunted down Ukraine’s lucky intelligence ship. Russia has explosive drone boats, too—now Ukrainian ships and planes are no longer safe from surface attack.

Latest News

Mon Sep 01 2025

HUR: Russia amassed 260 foreign machines for tank production since 2007 war planning. Intelligence documents expose how European CNC technology powers Russian tank production, creating leverage points for coordinated sanctions enforcement.

Ukraine exposes Russian death lists of prominent figures after parliament speaker’s assassination in Lviv. The 52-year-old Euromaidan leader survived grenade attacks and multiple murder attempts since 2014 before the 2025 Russian operation.

Ukraine destroys irreplaceable Soviet radio telescope in Crimea, opening path to more operations. Ukrainian Navy officials revealed the strikes specifically target layered defenses protecting both the strategic bridge and Novorossiysk naval base where Russian missile carriers operate.

US pressures Europe to sanction India while importing Russian uranium and palladium

. he 50% tariff escalation followed India’s rejection of Trump’s request for Nobel Peace Prize nomination, according to sources, pushing New Delhi toward stronger ties with China.

Ukraine blows up another rail substation in southern Russia powering rail traffic to occupied Crimea. Kropotkin’s transformer station was targeted in Kyiv’s latest round of a campaign to disrupt Russian military supply chains.

Ukrainian foreign minister warns West against appeasing Russia as Kyiv marks WWII anniversary. Avoiding difficult decisions and favoring weakness over strength allowed evil to grow stronger in 1939, he said.

Poland’s defense chief warns against “getting used to Russia’s war” at WWII anniversary. He also called Russia an “empire of evil.”

Business mood lifts as $17.8B in aid props up Ukraine’s economy. Ukrainian businesses are less pessimistic about prospects, while the economy survives increasingly on foreign aid.

Ukraine’s Kyivstar lists on NASDAQ, world’s second-largest exchange in New York, during war

. The historic achievement follows government reforms that cut telecom permit times from two years to 25 days, spurring broader international investment.

Russian tanks rolled toward Pokrovsk. Then HIMARS and drones turned the whole convoy into wreckage (video). The 79th Air Assault Brigade exposed and destroyed the rare Russian column movement.

Kremlin deploys nuclear threats and war nostalgia to spook Western capitals into silence. Russian officials evoke Hiroshima and WWII to warn France and Germany against supporting Kyiv.

Ukraine seeks to tame war risk with state-backed insurance scheme. Ukraine is preparing a nationwide war-risk insurance program to finally open the door for private capital.

Man crashes car through Russian consulate gates in Sydney, police officer injured. A 39-year-old man injured a police constable and crashed his SUV through the Russian consulate gates in Sydney the morning of 1 Sept. Australian authorities arrested a man

German parliamentary chiefs arrive to Kyiv for first bipartisan Ukraine mission. Two key figures from Germany’s ruling coalition landed in Kyiv on 1 Sept., marking the first time parliamentary leaders from both the CDU/CSU and SPD have visited Ukraine together since Russia’s invasion began.

Read our previous daily report here.

Russia has been preparing for war with Ukraine since 2007. Since then, Russia’s largest tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, has been accumulating hundreds of units of foreign high-tech machinery to support Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence or HUR reports. 

Foreign equipment strengthens Russia’s military-industrial complex

HUR has published new data in the “Tools of War” section of the War&Sanctions portal on over 260 machine tools, CNC processing centers, and other foreign-made equipment operating within the Russian military-industrial complex.

This portal documents entities and companies helping Russia wage the war against Ukraine. 

According to Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence chief, most of these purchases occurred during the rearmament of Russia’s defense industry ahead of the all-out war.

Sanctions and service restrictions – an effective limiting mechanism

This equipment requires regular maintenance, repairs, and software updates. Manufacturers can restrict the supply of spare parts, technical fluids, and CNC software, directly impacting the operation of Russia’s military machinery.

Production expansion during wartime

In 2024, Uralvagonzavod launched a new tank engine production line equipped with advanced CNC machinery from leading European manufacturers. While deliveries via third countries continue, they have become slower, more complicated, and more expensive due to sanctions.

Effectively limiting Russian aggression requires coordinated diplomatic efforts, investigation of violations, and blocking of circumvention schemes.

The Russian intelligence has assassination lists, which includes Ukrainian prominent politicians, officials, and public figures. Former Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, Andrii Parubiy, who was killed in Lviv by a Russian agent, was in one of them even before the war, says deputy Iryna Herashchenko from his European Solidarity party, Radio NV reports. 

Ukraine investigates Russian link to assassination of politician who opposed Kremlin for 30 years

Moscow behind every attempt

“From the very first second, it was clear that Moscow was behind this. Whoever pulled the trigger, Moscow was controlling it,” says Herashchenko.

The first attempt on Parubiy’s life occurred in December 2014, when a grenade was thrown near the Kyiv hotel. In 2022, the Russians added him to a “hit list” targeting dozens of Ukrainian politicians.

Telegram recruitment and psychological pressure

Herashchenko explained that Russian intelligence tried to recruit a suspect via Telegram, offering the body of Parubiy’s missing son as leverage, exploiting his emotional vulnerability.

“The person was easy prey for the FSB to execute this absolutely hellish plan,” she noted.

The European Solidarity faction is pushing for legislation to de-anonymize Telegram in Ukraine to prevent such crimes in the future.

Threats persist

Herashchenko also recalled threats during the Minsk negotiations, when Moscow-aligned actors warned Ukrainian participants.

“Do you think we don’t know where you live? Your house will be burned by the families of prisoners of war,” she repeats Russian threats to Ukrainian officials. 

Russia breached the Minsk agreements, which focused on reaching peace in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, and started the all-out war in 2022.

Herashchenko emphasizes that such Russian tactics continue today, underscoring the ongoing dangers faced by Ukrainian politicians.

The Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense continues to demonstrate its strength, UNIAN reports. In temporarily occupied Crimea, several key Russian targets have been destroyed, including the RT-70 radio telescope, in a latest strike. 

Impressive results from the Phantoms special unit

According to HUR and the Ukrainian Navy, in August, fighters from the special unit “Phantoms” struck:

• the Utios-T radar system
• the RT-70 radio telescope
• the GLONASS satellite navigation system in its dome
• the coastal radar station MR-10M1 “Mys” M1
• the 96L6-AP radar of the S-400 missile system

“The radio telescope is truly unique. It was built during Soviet times to monitor satellite constellations. It is genuinely one-of-a-kind,” emphasizes Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain 3rd Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk.

Strategy to thin out Russian air defenses

Pletenchuk noted that in Crimea, the enemy deployed a dense network of air defense systems to protect the Crimean Bridge and the peninsula’s military infrastructure. The layered air defense system also covers Novorossiysk, where the Black Sea Fleet’s missile carriers are based.

“Clearing a path to other Russian targets begins with the air defenses,” he stresses.

Disrupting Russia and destroying its key targets makes their restoration costly and difficult.

Impact on Russia’s defense capabilities

Destroying such targets significantly complicates the operation of Russian air defense, reducing its effectiveness against airstrikes, missile attacks, and drones. This is a strategic step in the demilitarization of temporarily occupied Crimea and in preparing for subsequent operations by Ukrainian forces.

The White House has urged European countries to follow the US and impose restrictive measures on India for its purchases of Russian oil, which fund the war in Ukraine, India Today reports. 

US tariffs on Indian goods

In August 2025, the US raised tariffs on goods from India up to 50%, criticizing New Delhi for supporting Russia’s economic machinery. At the same time, Washington has not imposed sanctions on China, the main sponsor of the war and Moscow’s key economic partner.

A Russian drone caught filming its own camera test in a Chinese factory before being shot down in Ukraine

Europe continues to buy Russian energy

India has criticized the US decision, pointing out double standards: Europe itself continues to purchase oil from Russia. EU–Russia trade in 2024 reached €67.5 billion in goods and €17.2 billion in services. Europe also imported a record 16.5 million tons of Russian LNG, the highest number since 2022.

Sanctions do not cover key Russian exports

Many critical Russian exports remain unrestricted, including palladium for the US automotive industry, uranium for nuclear power plants, fertilizers, chemicals, metals, and equipment.

Sources report that Trump also pressured India to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. After being rejected, he responded with tariffs. This has prompted India to strengthen its ties with China and reinforced so-called anti-American cooperation among the so-called “axis of upheaval” countries.

Today, the US administration seeks to have Europe join in sanction pressure on New Delhi if India does not stop buying Russian oil.

In the early hours of 1 September, Ukrainian drones struck a critical transformer substation in the southern Russian town of Kropotkin, Krasnodar Krai, igniting a massive fire and disabling the infrastructure that powered one of southern Russia’s key railway hubs.

Ukrainian drones ignite Kropotkin substation, disabling strategic logistics node

According to Russian Telegram channel Astra, the attack triggered a blaze at the substation servicing the Kavkazskaya railway station in Kropotkin. The local operational headquarters confirmed the incident, attributing the fire to debris from downed drones. Officials claimed there were no casualties.

“We’re dying from the smoke on Zheleznodorozhnaya [Steet],” read one message, while others noted unbearable conditions on Shevchenko Street.

Videos and reports shared by Ukrainian Telegram channel Exilenova+ identified the substation as the 330kV Kropotkin transformer, which supplied power to the regional energy system and to critical railway lines connecting the North Caucasus with Rostov, Kuban, and the Black Sea ports.

The Kavkazskaya station, a railway junction, plays a crucial role in transporting freight, including grain and oil products, and in moving military hardware and personnel toward northern Russia and occupied Crimea. Disrupting this link complicates Russia’s ability to sustain operations in multiple directions.

Strategic targeting of Russian railway infrastructure continues

Just a week earlier, Ukrainian drones hit a railway hub and locomotive depot in the town of Petrov Val, Volgograd Oblast — approximately 350 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

On 17 August, drones attacked the Liski railway station in Voronezh Oblast, one of the largest junctions in the South-Eastern Railway system. That strike brought train traffic to a halt. The station is actively used by Russian forces to transport military equipment and personnel.

Broader drone campaign spans multiple regions

In its morning update, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that 50 drones had been intercepted overnight across various regions. According to its statement, 16 were shot down over the Black Sea, 12 over Belgorod Oblast, 7 over the Azov Sea, and several others across Saratov, Samara, Orenburg oblasts, the Republic of Tatarstan, and Krasnodar Krai itself.

“Do not repeat the mistakes of World War II.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has called on international allies to act decisively and resist Russian aggression.

Remembering the lessons of history

Sybiha recalled that on 1 September 1939, Hitler attacked Poland, soon joined by Stalin, initiating the bloodiest war in history.

“Today it is extremely important to remember what led to that day: weakness and naive faith that territorial concessions would ‘appease’ the aggressor,” the Ukrainian foreign minister noted.

Responsibility for the World War II disaster

The minister emphasized that the Nazi Third Reich bears full responsibility for the war, but there were also those who “allowed this evil to grow stronger—avoiding difficult decisions and favoring weakness over strength.”

According to Sybiha, the best way to honor the memory of tens of millions of victims is not to repeat the same mistakes today.

Allies’ unity and support for Ukraine

Sybiga stressed that the unity of allies, pressure on the Russian aggressor, and consistent support for Ukraine are critically important for Europe’s security and long-term peace.

“Strength and determination today are the guarantee of future security and peace in Europe,” he added.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump proposed that Ukraine consider territorial concessions to Russia as part of ending the war. His proposal involved Ukraine relinquishing control over Donetsk Oblast to Russia, in exchange for Russia agreeing to freeze the front lines and halt further advances. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy firmly rejected any proposal to cede Ukrainian land to Russia. He emphasized Ukraine’s sovereignty and constitutional prohibition on surrendering territory to the occupier. 

Ukrainian authorities captured a suspect in the killing of former parliament speaker Andriy Parubiy following a 36-hour manhunt that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally authorized. Investigators say they’re focusing on a potential Russian connection to what appears to be a meticulously planned assassination.

On 30 August, in broad daylight on a Lviv street, a man dressed as a delivery courier approached Parubiy. The gunman fired eight shots at the lawmaker before confirming his death and fleeing the scene. Video footage captured the execution, showing the killer’s deliberate courier disguise before he vanished.

But 36 hours later, police found him hiding in the Khmelnytsky Oblast of western Ukraine. The 52-year-old suspect from Lviv now faces premeditated murder and illegal weapons handling charges carrying up to 15 years in prison.

Investigators consider “the Russian trace”

“The crime was carefully planned, its preparation lasted more than one month,” senior investigator Andriy Nebitov told reporters. The perpetrator had studied Parubiy’s daily routines, mapped multiple escape routes, and prepared detailed contingency plans.

After the shooting, the suspect tried to cover his tracks. He changed clothes, ditched the weapon, and fled toward western Ukraine’s rural areas. Law enforcement found objective evidence linking him to the killing, according to prosecutors who are preparing to hold him without bail.

“Today we prioritize considering the Russian trace — an order from the Russian Federation,” Nebitov added without providing specifics.

Ukraine’s Security Service also says the assassination bears hallmarks of a contract killing with Russian involvement.

“The crime has signs of being ordered,” said Vadim Onyshchenko, head of the SBU’s Lviv Oblast department. “There is operational information that indicates possible involvement of Russian Federation special services in organizing the murder.”

Suspect claims killing was “revenge on Ukrainian authorities,” denies Russian involvement

“Revenge on Ukrainian authorities,” he told the reporters, according to a Hromadske correspondent in the courtroom.

The suspect also stated he expects a quick sentence so he can be exchanged for prisoners of war, saying he wants to find his son’s body.

Earlier, Lviv’s Vysokyi Zamok newspaper cited unnamed sources who claimed the suspect’s son went missing a year ago, apparently on the front line. According to these reports, Russians allegedly told him they would return his son’s body in exchange for killing any prominent Ukrainian politician. This information is not yet verified.

However, if true, this would represent a different kind of Russian operation—not a professional hit against the anti-Russian politician, but exploitation of a desperate father’s grief. 

Who was assassinated Andriy Parubiy?

Parubiy, 52, was a defining figure in Ukraine’s modern political development and maintained a consistently anti-Russian stance throughout his career.

He co-founded the Social-National Party of Ukraine in 1991, when Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union, which declared in its early program that it “considers the Russian state the cause of all troubles in Ukraine.” 

The statement seemed extreme at the time—so controversial that Ukraine’s Ministry of Justice delayed registering the party until 1995. But Parubiy’s early anti-Russian stance proved accurate, with Ukraine fighting Russian aggression since 2014 and facing full-scale invasion since 2022.

The politician played pivotal roles in Ukraine’s two major democratic upheavals. During the 2004 Orange Revolution, he served as commandant of the Ukrainian House, a key protest site.

The mass protests in 2004 erupted after a rigged presidential election tried to install Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovych over pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets for weeks until authorities agreed to a revote that Yushchenko won.

Nearly a decade later, Parubiy became the de facto leader of the Euromaidan demonstrations in 2013 and 2014, aimed at fighting for Ukraine’s future int he EU and away from Russian influence, 

“From that megaphone I started the rally,” Parubiy once recalled about launching the initial Euromaidan protest. “In the first minutes there were 70-80 of us, there were more police around us than us.”

From those chaotic first hours, Parubiy built a protest movement that lasted three months. He organized the tent city, established defensive barricades, and created what became known as “Maidan Self-Defense”—a structured force that grew to 12,000 people by February 2014. He appointed “centurions” to command different sectors and coordinate security for the sprawling protest camp.

Unlike other opposition politicians who negotiated with Yanukovych’s government, Parubiy stayed focused on organizing the grassroots protesters. When government snipers eventually opened fire on demonstrators, killing over 100 people, Parubiy claimed Russian operatives were involved in the shootings both targeting protesters and government forces to maximize chaos.

Fight against Russian influence in Ukraine

Following the revolution, Parubiy was appointed Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, where he helped establish Ukraine’s National Guard by incorporating Maidan self-defense forces. He oversaw anti-terrorist operations against separatists in eastern Ukraine and was a vocal opponent of the Minsk peace agreements.

“I believed and believe that the agreements were signed under very unfavorable conditions for Ukraine,” he said, arguing that Russian President Vladimir Putin had no intention of implementing them and could only be stopped by force.

Parubiy served as speaker of Ukraine’s parliament from 2016 to 2019, working alongside politicians including former president Petro Poroshenko and opposing what he called Russian attacks on Ukrainian language and culture. After stepping down as speaker, he continued serving as a member of parliament representing the European Solidarity party.

His most dramatic parliamentary moment came in 2010, when he smuggled a smoke grenade into the chamber to disrupt ratification of the Kharkiv Accords—agreements that extended Russia’s lease of its Sevastopol naval base in Crimea and allowed expanded Russian military presence on the peninsula. The stunt failed, but Parubiy’s fears proved justified when Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and launched a war in eastern Ukraine that continues today.

“If we hadn’t allowed this then, far fewer Russian troops would be stationed in Crimea, everything could have gone differently,” he later reflected.

He demanded “complete destruction of Russian empire”

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, Parubiy joined territorial defense forces and served at checkpoints around Kyiv. He consistently advocated for the complete destruction of what he termed the “Russian empire.”

“This is today a chance for the Ukrainian army and people to destroy this empire,” he declared, arguing that Russia would remain a perpetual threat if not decisively defeated.

“If it [Russian empire] doesn’t die today, it will continue to remain a threat to us, to our children. And we must leave our children a peaceful sky and end this war with the complete defeat of the Russian army,” he added.

His European Solidarity party colleagues have demanded a thorough investigation, stating they believe the murder is connected to his pro-Ukrainian positions. The party suggested Russia and its supporters were behind the killing, noting that “Moscow sincerely hated Parubiy as one of the state-builders of modern Ukraine.”

The investigation continues as authorities examine all possible motives while focusing on the Russian connection. President Zelenskyy announced that the suspect has already provided initial testimony to investigators.

“Getting used to war is the greatest victory of the empire of evil from the East.” At Westerplatte in Gdańsk, during the ceremony marking the 86th anniversary of the outbreak of World War II, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz called on the world to remember the lessons of history and resist Russian aggression, PAP reports. 

Poland: Support for Ukraine is a matter of national security

Kosiniak-Kamysz reminded that Poles cannot ignore the war against Ukraine.

“People and children are dying there. Bombs are falling on nurseries, kindergartens, and hospitals,” said the minister.

According to him, beyond civilizational, humanitarian, and Christian reasons to support Ukraine, there is another — the security of Poland itself.

Historical experience and national duty

The minister recalled that throughout history, Poles have often paid a high price for freedom.

“Supporting Ukrainian soldiers is the Polish reason for existence, Poland’s national interest, and Poland’s security,” he declared.

Kosiniak-Kamysz acknowledged that sensitivity tends to fade over time, but the state duty cannot be destroyed by fatigue or despair. He stressed that this is also a debt to the memory of the Polish soldiers who defended Westerplatte.

The National Bank of Ukraine reported businesses improved their economic expectations in August, with the business activity expectations index rising to 49.0 from 48.3 in July.

The index, based on monthly surveys of real-sector companies about their expected performance, uses 50 as the neutral threshold, meaning Ukrainian businesses remain slightly pessimistic but are moving toward stability.

Domestic resilience emerges

Construction companies led the optimism, with their index hitting 54.0 in August. They have stayed positive for four consecutive months as reconstruction projects and sustained domestic demand provide steady work.

Trading firms have maintained optimism for six months as new harvest supplies reach markets and consumer spending holds up.

Service companies remained the most cautious at 47.0, citing expensive logistics, higher electricity prices, and skilled worker shortages.

The drivers behind this cautious improvement include energy stability, decelerating inflation, and what the NBU calls “brisk consumer sentiment”—suggesting Ukrainian purchasing power hasn’t collapsed despite the war.

The aid lifeline making it possible

But this domestic resilience exists only because foreign partners keep Ukraine’s external accounts afloat. Balance of payments data released alongside the business survey reveals the underlying dependency.

The current account deficit nearly doubled to $4.1 billion in July compared to last year, as imports surged 19.9% while exports managed only 3.1% growth.

Foreign direct investment collapsed from $3.2 billion to just $1.1 billion in the first seven months of 2025. Instead, governments and international organizations provide the lifeline: $17.8 billion in net financial flows this year compared to just $7.3 billion last year.

Ukraine’s $43 billion reserves look healthy, but exist because donors keep filling the tank. Without this support, the domestic confidence businesses report would evaporate quickly.

Strategic implications

This combination reveals both the success and the limits of Western aid strategy. The money works—Ukraine’s economy functions and companies plan for the future rather than just surviving day-to-day. Businesses can focus on reconstruction and meeting consumer demand because external support handles the macroeconomic gaps.

But the deepening dependency raises sustainability questions.

For now, the arrangement holds: international support enables domestic stability, which maintains business confidence, which keeps the economy functioning.

Whether this virtuous cycle continues depends on factors far beyond Ukraine’s borders—donor fatigue, military developments, and shifting political priorities in supporting countries.

The cautious optimism Ukrainian businesses report may prove justified, but only if external support continues at unprecedented levels.

For the first time in history, the Ukrainian company Kyivstar has entered the American NASDAQ stock exchange. Now the name of Ukraine’s capital resonates in the world’s financial center, with shares trading under the ticker KYIV, says Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov.

How the state changed the rules of the game

Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov emphasizes that this success became possible thanks to reforms in the telecom sector. In recent years:

• laws were adopted to speed up the allocation of land plots for networks;
• permits for mobile towers are now issued in 25 days instead of 2 years.
• base stations are kept running even during power outages.
• conditions were created for the launch of 5G and the EU-wide “roam like at home”,
• new frequency licenses were issued, connecting millions of Ukrainians to the internet.
• 4G coverage was expanded to more than 9,000 settlements.

Nasdaq and Kyivstar: a breakthrough for Ukrainian business

Now a Ukrainian company stands alongside giants — Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. It sends a strong signal to global investors: even during war, Ukraine can carry out breakthrough business deals.

Investment boom in telecom

Kyivstar’s entry to Nasdaq is not the only milestone.

• Lifecell has attracted the French company NJJ Holding.
• Vodafone, together with Nokia and Finnvera, is investing tens of millions into networks and testing 5G.
• Kyivstar, in partnership with Starlink and SpaceX, is launching Direct-to-Cell, an advanced satellite communication technology.

Ukrainian telecom has proven that despite war, infrastructure losses, and constant shelling, it can develop and integrate into the global economy.

Exclusive

A Russian drone boat hunted down Ukraine’s lucky intelligence ship. Russia has explosive drone boats, too—now Ukrainian ships and planes are no longer safe from surface attack.

Military

Russian tanks rolled toward Pokrovsk. Then HIMARS and drones turned the whole convoy into wreckage (video). The 79th Air Assault Brigade exposed and destroyed the rare Russian column movement.

Frontline report: Ukrainian marines raise flags in recaptured settlements as Russian units withdraw in Donetsk Oblast. The operation began when Ukrainian special operations forces cleared Russian infiltrators from Andriivka and raised their unit flag before the broader counteroffensive commenced.

Ukrainian Phantoms destroy Russia’s S-400 radars in Crimean strike. The destruction of Russia’s most advanced radar systems leaves Crimea’s air defenses severely compromised, opening the peninsula to larger Ukrainian operations.

500 firefighters battle blaze 10km from Putin’s Black Sea palace for four days after Ukrainian drone strike. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries 28 Aug. ignited a 4-day forest fire near Putin’s Black Sea palace. Russian authorities deployed 500 personnel and aircraft to extinguish the 41.5-hectare blaze.

ISW: Russia launches battlefield propaganda to sell an inevitable victory that doesn’t exist

. ISW says Moscow’s inflated stats are part of a coordinated information campaign to manipulate Western perception.

NYT: Russia targets Western-linked assets in Ukraine to block peace efforts. Moscow appears confident it can escalate without military retaliation.

Syrskyi: Russia loses 290,000 troops in 8 months at the front. Despite sustaining over 290,000 casualties since January, Russian forces have achieved none of their strategic objectives on the Ukrainian front, Commander-in-Chief said.

Ukraine liberated a village near Kupiansk — Russia used it to watch the highway into the city. Ukrainian forces kicked Russians out of Myrne, once their strategic eye on Kupiansk’s main road in eastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast.

Intelligence and technology

Ukraine is counting on $1 bn a month to buy US weapons through PURL program, Zelenskyy says. Seven NATO allies joined Ukraine’s American weapons purchasing program in August, pushing total commitments past $2 bn as President announced expectations for sustained monthly billion-dollar contributions.

Germany begins 100,000-shell annual production line for Ukraine. The Rheinmetall facility signals Western allies’ recognition that supporting Ukraine requires dedicated industrial capacity rather than temporary weapons transfers.

International

Kremlin deploys nuclear threats and war nostalgia to spook Western capitals into silence. Russian officials evoke Hiroshima and WWII to warn France and Germany against supporting Kyiv.

German parliamentary chiefs arrive to Kyiv for first bipartisan Ukraine mission

. Two key figures from Germany’s ruling coalition landed in Kyiv on 1 Sept., marking the first time parliamentary leaders from both the CDU/CSU and SPD have visited Ukraine together since Russia’s invasion began.

Hungary continues to veto Ukraine’s accession to EU. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Budapest will veto opening concrete negotiation chapters on Ukraine’s EU membership, warning that Brussels and Kyiv are “jointly jeopardizing Hungary’s energy security.”

Zelenskyy calls Putin’s China visit “usual tactic” to avoid war accountability as global leaders demand peace. From the Vatican to Beijing, world leaders are calling for an end to the Ukraine war, but Russia remains the sole holdout in pursuing continued war, Ukrainian President said

German Chancellor: Ukrainian capitulation means “tomorrow we’re next”. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz cautioned that Ukrainian surrender would create a cascade of Russian attacks on neighboring countries, ultimately reaching Germany,

Von der Leyen pledges tripled EU border funding during Poland frontier visit. Polish PM Donald Tusk claimed Belarusian border personnel monitored his press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during their solidarity visit to the contested frontier

Germany backs out of sending troops to Ukraine – Bild. Focus shifts to providing financial support as a security guarantee for Ukraine amid stalled ceasefire talks.

Putin choses visit to main Ukraine’s war sponsor instead of meeting with Zelenskyy, despite Trump’s deadline. Russia’s president chose to showcase military ties with Beijing rather than respond to Washington’s peace initiative, suggesting Moscow prioritizes anti-Western partnerships over cease-fire negotiations.

Humanitarian and social impact

Hundreds mourn young mother, two year daughter lost in devastating Russian missile attack on Kyiv.

Russian drone and artillery attacks kill 2 civilians in Kherson

. Kherson has repeatedly faced Russian attacks since its liberation in 2022, with civilians and infrastructure often targeted.

Tens of thousands in Odesa without power after Russian bombardment. Odesa regularly faces Russian drone and missile attacks, leaving civilians with damaged property, power outages, and ongoing safety risks.

Political and legal developments

Ukraine seeks to tame war risk with state-backed insurance scheme. Ukraine is preparing a nationwide war-risk insurance program to finally open the door for private capital.

59% of Ukrainians support cessation of hostilities and search for compromise. About 75% of Ukrainians reject any ceasefire agreement unless Western allies provide concrete security assurances

The slow squeeze: Russia’s oil empire is bleeding cash. Rosneft profits crash 68% in massive validation of Western strategy.

New developments

Man crashes car through Russian consulate gates in Sydney, police officer injured. A 39-year-old man injured a police constable and crashed his SUV through the Russian consulate gates in Sydney the morning of 1 Sept. Australian authorities arrested a man

Poland deports Ukrainian who threatened arson attacks.

Wagner gold mission collapses as Russian mercenaries fight local allies in Mali. Wagner fails catastrophically in Mali as 2,000 mercenaries fight local allies instead of jihadists, marking first major setback for Russian Africa strategy.

Chemical plant fire engulfs 4,000 square meters near Moscow. Mi-8 and Ka-32 helicopters joined ground firefighters battling a blaze at warehouse facilities belonging to Balashikha Experimental Chemical Plant, where 4,000 square meters remain engulfed in flames.

Read our earlier daily review here.

Ukrainian paratroopers destroyed a Russian armored convoy that was advancing toward Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, using HIMARS missiles and FPV drones in a coordinated nighttime assault. The strike reportedly took place on 28 August and targeted a mechanized group that had been spotted 10 kilometers behind Russian lines.

HIMARS strike shatters Russian push from Prohres toward Pokrovsk

Militarnyi reports that drone operators from the Ivan Franko Group, part of the 79th Air Assault Brigade, detected the convoy moving from the settlement of Prohres toward Malynivka, a village east of Pokrovsk. The Russian column consisted of seven vehicles, including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and was carrying up to 100 soldiers—some of whom were advancing on motorcycles.

Once the target was confirmed, Ukrainian forces launched a HIMARS missile, striking the column during its movement. The initial hit disrupted the formation, after which drone operators joined the attack, targeting abandoned or disabled vehicles. A second missile strike completed the operation, according to the 79th Brigade.

Ukrainian paratroopers reported that the entire armored group was destroyed, and at least 50 Russian soldiers were killed. They believe the unit may have been part of a force recently redeployed from Russia’s Kursk Oblast, possibly including elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

“The appearance of units near Pokrovsk from a different direction could explain the use of a large number of armored vehicles in an area where, for a long time, Russian forces had relied exclusively on small infantry groups to minimize losses from drones,” Militarnyi noted.

Faced with heavy losses and only limited territorial gains, Russian forces have previously shifted tactics—now infiltrating through the so-called “gray zone” under drone surveillance and concentrating troops for assault operations.

In a report on 31 August, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) outlined how the Kremlin has intensified its multi-pronged information campaign to weaken Western support for Ukraine and derail the European role in peace efforts in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.

Russia is now aggressively pushing three narrative lines at once: blaming European states for prolonging the war, reviving nuclear threats, and portraying Russian victory as inevitable.

Kremlin blames Europe for dragging out the war

Kremlin officials have returned to a long-standing propaganda line that paints European states as obstacles to peace in Ukraine. ISW noted that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev recently implied that European countries are deliberately extending the conflict. According to ISW, Russia is using Dmitriev—who frequently represents Kremlin interests on Western platforms—to reintroduce this message into the Western media environment, aiming to erode US confidence in European allies.

Medvedev threatens nuclear consequences for backing Ukraine

On 31 August, Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev launched a pointed attack against French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Posting on his English-language X account, Medvedev accused the two leaders of having “forgotten the lessons” of World War II. He warned that “things could end up like they did in 1945 – [Macron and Merz] too may end up being identified by their teeth,” directly invoking the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Medvedev also described recent Russian military progress as “bad news” for the European leaders.

ISW assessed that this language is intended to threaten France and Germany with nuclear consequences for their involvement in US-led efforts to end the war, while simultaneously amplifying the idea of unstoppable Russian military momentum.

Moscow promotes image of inevitable victory

Alongside these threats, the Kremlin continues to push the idea that Russian victory in Ukraine is certain. ISW reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense has ramped up its efforts to project battlefield success using large volumes of qualitative data. However, ISW assessed that these claims are inflated and part of the broader strategy to demoralize Ukraine’s allies and reduce Western resolve.

Verkhovna Rada’s finance committee chair Danylo Hetmantsev announced the program on Sunday, building on previous warnings from officials that “the lack of coverage for military risks is a significant obstacle to attracting investors for Ukraine’s reconstruction and economic development,” as former deputy economy minister Oleksiy Sobolev, now Ukraine’s minister of economy, environment, and agriculture, noted last year.

The plan splits coverage into two tracks: direct state compensation for war damage in frontline areas through Ukraine’s Export Credit Agency, and premium subsidies elsewhere to make insurance affordable for businesses and households.

How Ukraine plans to make war-risk insurance work

Frontline zones: The Export Credit Agency will directly compensate damaged property in the highest-risk areas near active combat through a claims-based system.

Safer regions: The government will subsidize insurance premiums across the rest of the country, making commercial coverage affordable for both Ukrainian businesses and foreign investors.

The program still needs legislative amendments to expand the Export Credit Agency’s mandate and a Cabinet decision on budget allocation. Hetmantsev described the costs as “moderate” but provided no specific figures.

“This was a challenging path. Thanks to the Cabinet of Ministers and NBU for constructive cooperation, and I expect final decisions,” he wrote on social media.

Ukraine’s war-risk experiments show promise

Ukraine isn’t building this system from scratch.

Maritime success: The Unity facility, built with Marsh, Lloyd’s, and Ukrainian state banks, drove down war-risk rates for Black Sea shipping and expanded in March 2024 to cover all non-military cargo.

International backing: The World Bank’s MIGA expanded political-risk insurance for Ukraine in 2024, while broker Aon and the US Development Finance Corporation unveiled a $350 million scheme for Ukrainian businesses earlier this year.

Private market entry: A London-backed reinsurance program launched this year, offering property coverage—but only for assets more than 100 kilometers from the front lines. This shows how distance-to-combat still shapes pricing.

What investors have been waiting for

The new system aims to unify these fragmented pilot programs into comprehensive rules that private insurers and international reinsurers can price against. According to Oleksiy Sobolev, the goal is to create “a single pool, clear rules, and ultimately the ability to attract international reinsurers to this market.”

The original concept, developed last autumn by Ukraine’s National Bank, Ministry of Economy, and Ministry of Finance, envisioned financing through mandatory insurance payments and international donor support.

Coverage would protect against physical war damage, with mandatory insurance initially covering mortgaged property and residential construction projects.

The investment math that matters

If Ukraine can deliver predictable budget support and attract international reinsurer participation, the program could shift investment calculations from “uninsurable” to “expensive but manageable”—unlocking bank lending and foreign direct investment far beyond the maritime corridor.

However, the program’s scale and speed will determine whether this becomes a genuine turning point or just another limited pilot in a market still fundamentally priced for war.

Ukraine’s approach builds on proven models—the Unity shipping facility demonstrated that strategic state participation can dramatically reduce private market pricing while attracting commercial capital. The question is whether Ukraine can scale this from ships to the entire economy while the war continues.

For international investors who have spent three years watching Ukrainian opportunities from the sidelines, the program represents the missing piece that could finally make the risk calculable rather than simply unacceptable.

A 39-year-old man crashed his white SUV through the gates of the Russian consulate in Sydney’s eastern suburbs on the morning of 1 September after police attempted to question him about his unauthorized presence on the property, according to New South Wales Police.

Officers responded to reports of a suspicious vehicle parked in the consulate’s driveway in Woollahra around 8:30 AM. When police tried to speak with the driver, “the man allegedly drove his vehicle into the gates of the property” and continued onto the lawn, police said, according to The Guardian.

Helicopter footage captured the aftermath: the vehicle with doors open and smashed front windows positioned near a large flagpole on the consulate grounds.

An eyewitness described the confrontation to local media: “I came out and I saw a policeman with a gun, his glock, pointing at the man in the car, asking him to get out of the car. He didn’t [get out], rammed through the gates, drove onto the property and stopped again.”

The incident injured a 24-year-old constable who sustained a hand injury and received treatment from NSW Ambulance paramedics, according to police reports.

Pro-Kremlin influencer Simeon Boikov, known online as Aussie Cossack, witnessed the events from inside the consulate where he has been staying for 1,000 days while facing assault charges. “From my side, it looks like a diplomatic asylum attempt,” Boikov told reporters from within the building.

The driver was arrested and taken to Surry Hills police station for questioning. Federal police detectives launched an investigation, with the Australian Federal Police’s Diplomatic Protection Unit also involved. The vehicle was towed from the premises around 10 AM.

Minor damage to the front gate was quickly repaired, and federal police officers maintained security around the area. The Russian consulate has not responded to requests for comment, reports Guardian Australia and ABC News.

Boris Kragen, a 77-year-old Russian national from Moscow, arrived at the consulate for paperwork but found the leafy street cordoned off with police tape and multiple patrol cars blocking access. 

Video footage from witnesses captured police shouting commands at the driver: “Get out of the car immediately” and “Get on the ground,” according to media reports. The damaged driver-side windows suggested police used batons to gain access to the vehicle.

New South Wales Police confirmed the investigation remains ongoing.

Jens Spahn from the CDU/CSU and Matthias Miersch from the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) arrived in Kyiv on 1 September, DW reported.

The visit marks the first joint trip to Ukraine by the parliamentary group leaders of the CDU/CSU and SPD. Both Spahn and Miersch are making their inaugural visits to Ukraine.

The German politicians plan to discuss continued German support for Ukraine and diplomatic efforts to end the war during their stay in Kyiv, according to the report.

“Matthias Miersch and I are here to send a clear signal: the government factions CDU/CSS and SPD stand now and in the future on the side of Ukraine, the brave Ukrainians who defend their homeland, their country, and also Europe,” Spahn said.

When asked about possible security guarantees for Ukraine, Spahn emphasized that the best guarantee is a well-equipped Ukrainian army. “The first and most important security guarantee for Ukraine is the Ukrainian army. Above all, we want to equip it as well as possible,” he said.

The visit follows German Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil’s trip to Kyiv on 25 August. During that visit, Klingbeil announced Germany’s commitment to provide Ukraine with nine billion euros annually over the coming years.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on 30 August that Budapest will block the opening of substantive negotiations on Ukraine’s EU membership, citing concerns over agriculture, security, and energy costs.

Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, has been actively vetoing Ukraine’s accession process to the European Union. Viktor Orbán is widely regarded as a close ally of Vladimir Putin, positioning Hungary as a key supporter of Russian interests within the EU. 

Speaking after an informal EU foreign ministers meeting in Copenhagen, Szijjarto said Hungary “will not allow the substantive part of the accession negotiations, i.e., the specific rounds of the negotiations, to be opened,” according to Hungarian media reports.

The minister justified the position by claiming Ukraine’s EU membership “would destroy Hungarian farmers, Hungary’s food security, and allow the Ukrainian mafia to enter Hungary.”

Szijjarto accused Brussels and most EU member states of prioritizing war continuation over peace negotiations.

“Brussels and most European Union member states are preparing for the long-term continuation of the Ukrainian war, are not interested in the success of peace negotiations, and are ready to send many more thousands of billions of forints to Ukraine,” he said.

The Hungarian official criticized the European Commission for acting “practically as a Ukrainian Commission, completely representing Ukraine’s interests, contrary to the interests of member states” during the Copenhagen discussions.

Hungary outlined four specific areas where it will maintain opposition to EU policy on Ukraine. The country will continue supporting US President Donald Trump’s peace efforts, as “only an American-Russian agreement can bring about a settlement,” Szijjarto said.

Ukraine applied for EU membership shortly after Russia’s invasion in 2022 and received candidate status within months. However, Hungary’s veto power as an EU member allows it to block further progress.

The Hungarian position comes amid broader EU discussions about Ukraine’s integration path and continued financial support. Hungary has consistently opposed aid packages to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia throughout the conflict.

On 13 August, Szijjarto condemned a Ukrainian drone strike on a distribution station of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. Hungary relies on this pipeline for most of its crude oil imports and remains one of two EU countries, along with Slovakia, still importing Russian oil via Druzhba under EU sanctions exemptions.

Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński announced the deportation of a Ukrainian citizen who posted video threats of arson attacks online.

“A Ukrainian citizen who threatened to commit arson in videos posted on the Internet was forcibly taken and deported to Ukraine by border service officers,” Kierwiński wrote on X.

The minister published footage showing the Ukrainian being handed over to Ukrainian border guards. Polish authorities had detained the individual on 29 August, according to Kierwiński’s earlier statements.

The deportation comes amid broader Polish security measures targeting Ukrainian nationals. On 30 August, Poland expelled 15 Ukrainian citizens who authorities claimed posed threats to public safety.

Border service officials reported that several of the deported Ukrainians had prior criminal convictions. The charges included possession of narcotic and psychotropic substances, theft, robbery, document forgery, drunk driving, and organizing illegal border crossings into Poland.

The cases highlight growing tensions as Polish authorities increase scrutiny of Ukrainian residents amid ongoing security concerns.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of deliberately choosing war over peace negotiations as Vladimir Putin traveled to China for a regional security summit. The Ukrainian leader criticized Moscow for ignoring widespread international calls for a ceasefire that have emerged from leaders across multiple continents.

Zelenskyy said in his evening adress that peace talks at the leadership level were proposed in Washington two weeks ago, adding Ukraine remains prepared for such discussions. However, he said Russia has chosen a different path by continuing to invest in military operations rather than diplomacy.

“All signals from Russia indicate only the continuation of aggression,” Zelenskyy said, according to his statement. “During his visit to China, Putin will again seek ways to avoid responsibility – this is his usual tactic.”

The Ukrainian president emphasized the breadth of international opposition to the war, citing calls for peace from major global powers and religious leaders.

“The world unanimously demands a ceasefire: China says this, and India’s Prime Minister, and the leaders of Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan. Today an important statement was made by the Pope. The only one who wants war is Russia,” Zelenskyy said.

Putin’s visit to China comes amid what sources describe as a “crunch moment” in peace talks over the Ukraine war, with the Russian leader attending a regional security summit alongside other leaders.

Zelenskyy argued that international pressure on Moscow must intensify, warning that the war’s continuation destabilizes the global situation. Ukraine expects firm positions from the United States, European Union, and G20 nations, he said.

The Ukrainian president also thanked partners who joined the PURL special program, which enables weapons purchases in the United States for Ukrainian defense forces. He announced that the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, Belgium, and Latvia joined the initiative in August.

“The total amount in the program has already exceeded $2 billion. Our goal is to add at least one billion monthly. These are funds for purchasing modern weapons – Patriot missiles, HIMARS and other systems that protect our cities,” Zelenskyy said.

The president previously reported that Ukrainian Defense Forces are containing Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast and toward Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian intelligence forces have delivered a powerful strike against the occupiers’ military infrastructure in temporarily occupied Crimea. The special unit Phantoms destroyed several expensive Russian air-defense and radar systems, the agency reports.

Phantoms strike at Russia’s defenses

According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, the elite unit continues systematically dismantling Russia’s air-defense network. The Phantoms are tasked with precision strikes against radar complexes, logistics hubs, and enemy military infrastructure.

What has been destroyed?

Ukrainian forces knocked out unique Russian systems, including:

• radar complex “Utyos-T”;
• the giant radio telescope RT-70;
• GLONASS satellite navigation system (Russia’s equivalent of GPS);
• coastal radar MR-10M1 “Mys” M1;
• 96L6-AP radar from the S-400 air-defense system.

Consequences for the occupiers

The loss of these systems seriously complicates the work of Russian air defense on the peninsula. Without key radars and navigation, the occupiers are left far more vulnerable to strikes by Ukrainian missiles, aircraft, and drones.

“The demilitarization of temporarily occupied Crimea continues!” Ukraine’s military intelligence emphasizes.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that Ukrainian capitulation would lead to Russian aggression against other states, according to his interview with ZDF channel.

Merz said the war between Russia and Ukraine could continue for an extended period. “We are trying to end it as quickly as possible. But certainly not at the price of Ukraine’s capitulation,” he added.

The Chancellor explained that while the war could end tomorrow if Ukraine surrenders and loses its independence, such an outcome would have dangerous consequences. “Only then the day after tomorrow it will be the turn of the next country. And then the day after that it will be our turn. That is not an option,” Merz said.

The German leader emphasized his government’s position on avoiding Ukrainian surrender despite the war’s potential duration. 

Regarding the possibility of a ceasefire next year, Merz expressed cautious optimism: “I don’t give up hope that we can make it happen. But I’m also not deluding myself.”

On the question of ground troops in Ukraine, Merz opposed such deployment at present. “Nobody is talking about ground troops in Ukraine at this time,” he said. 

This interview follows Merz’s earlier statements on Ukraine. On 27 August, the Chancellor argued that Ukrainian capitulation would only give the Russian dictator time to prepare for a new war. Two days later, on 29 August, Merz said Russia’s war against Ukraine could last “many months” as Putin refuses negotiations.

Most Ukrainians favor ending combat operations through negotiated settlement while demanding concrete security assurances from Western allies, according to new polling data from the Rating Sociological Group.

The survey, conducted 21-23 August, found 59% of respondents support “cessation of hostilities and search for compromise,” while 20% back continuing the war until Donbas and Crimea are returned and 13% favor fighting until 23 February 2022 borders are restored.

Security guarantees emerge as the central precondition for any ceasefire agreement. When asked whether Ukraine should agree to stop fighting, 75% said “Yes, but only if Ukraine receives security guarantees from the USA and European countries,” according to the polling firm. Just 19% said Ukraine “should not agree under any conditions,” while 3% supported an unconditional ceasefire.

Ukrainians identified three priority security mechanisms: continued military financing and weapons supplies from partners (52%), allied commitments to enter combat if Russia attacks again (48%), and international air and sea patrols (44%).

The preference for multilateral negotiations over bilateral talks with Moscow was pronounced. The Rating group found 62% view “search for compromise with involvement of other countries” as realistic, compared to 20% who favor “direct negotiations with Russia.” Only 11% support rejecting talks entirely and “fighting until liberation of all territories.”

When asked about current priorities, 58% chose securing Western commitments for future army financing and adequate weapons supplies, while 31% prioritized territorial recovery.

Respondents most commonly said Ukraine fights Russia for “children’s future” (60%) and “freedom” (44%).

The telephone survey interviewed 1,600 adults across all oblasts except occupied Crimea and Donbas territories and areas without Ukrainian mobile coverage. The margin of error is 2.5% with 95% confidence level.

The Russian private military company Wagner is experiencing serious setbacks in Mali: around two thousand fighters failed to improve security or control resources as they did in the Central African Republic. Instead of fighting jihadists, the mercenaries clashed with the Malian army, which only increased violence, reports the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. 

Goïta junta and Kremlin plan failures

After the 2021 coup, power in Mali was seized by a junta led by Assimi Goïta, who hoped for effective cooperation with Russian mercenaries. Instead, the JNIM network (Al-Qaeda in the Sahel) continues to strengthen its position in the region, and civilian casualties rose from 736 per year to over 3,000 in 2022–2024. Notably, 80% of deaths were caused not by jihadists but by the local army and Wagner forces.

Internal conflicts: violence, disobedience, and racism

Relations between Russian mercenaries and Malian forces sharply deteriorated: reports show disobedience to orders, equipment theft, and acts of racism. In August, repression targeted dozens of officers who disagreed with Wagner methods. Civilians subjected to terror refuse to cooperate with the mercenaries.

Kremlin fails to control resources

Unlike in Sudan and the CAR, Russia did not gain access to mineral resources, including gold mines. Goïta rejected Moscow’s demands and is seeking alternative partners for security and resource extraction.

For two years, Ukraine’s drone boats have hounded the Russian Black Sea Fleet—delivering explosive payloads to sink ships at sea and in port, firing guns and missiles to take down Russian aircraft and even launching tiny first-person-view drones at coastal air-defense sites.

Now Russia is striking back with its own drone boats. On Thursday morning, a Russian Orion surveillance drone spotted the Ukrainian navy’s Simferopol reconnaissance ship on the Danube River just outside Romanian waters. An explosives-laden Russian unmanned surface vehicle motored up to Simferopol—and struck the 179-foot-ship amidships.

Two of the vessel’s 29 or so crew died, Ukrainian navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said Friday. Several sailors were missing or injured. A search was underway for the missing, Pletenchuk said.

It’s painful loss for the depleted Ukrainian navy, which lost most of its large vessels—including its sole frigate, scuttled by its crew in Odesa—in the first few days of Russia’s wider invasion in February 2022. Since then, the navy has evolved, trading big ships for smaller boats and drones.

But the navy still had Simferopol, a former trawler that Ukraine fitted with a Melchior radio intelligence station and other systems and launched in 2019. Simferopol could detect Russian radio transmissions from hundreds of kilometers away. But the lightly armed ship was vulnerable—and the Ukrainian navy knew it. It’s not for no reason that Simferopol had apparently spent much of the wider war hiding out on the Danube.

Three years hiding

For 42 months, the intel ship succeeded in avoiding missile attack. But then the Russians deployed their very first explosive drone boat—and chased down the once-lucky Simferopol. The USV may be the same type that Russian firm RoboCorp recently tested in Sevastopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea.

The exact specifications of the Russian USV are unclear. But if it’s anything like the Ukrainian state security agency’s own Maguara V5 USV, it might measure 18 feet from bow to stern, travel 800 km or so under satellite guidance and pack up to 300 kg of explosives. As the Simferopol strike demonstrated, that’s enough firepower to sink a medium-sized vessel.

Fast and low on the water, USVs are hard to detect and defeat. Russia has put in place a layered defense against Ukraine’s drone boats: patrolling with drones, jets, helicopters and boats and placing armed sentries on likely targets. As Russian USVs proliferate, Ukraine may need to duplicate these defenses—especially around Odesa, Ukraine’s strategic grain port.

And if the Russian USVs evolve the way the Ukrainian USVs have, they may begin striking with guns, rockets and FPV drones. They could even threaten Ukrainian aircraft.

In the spring of 2024, enterprising Ukrainian engineers kluged together a combination of sensors and R-73 and AIM-9X infrared dogfighting missiles borrowed from the Ukrainian air force—and mounted the resulting system on some of the security agency’s Magura V5s.

On 31 December, the air-defense Magura V5s claimed their first victims: two Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopters. six months later on May 2, separate formations of Ukrainian USVs attacked Russian navy anchorages in Crimea and in Novorossiysk, a port in southern Russia.

Russian drones detected the wakes and Russian warplanes sortied to attack the incoming USVs. The drone boats fired back with at least one AIM-9X—and shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-30 fighter. It was the first-ever shoot-down of a manned warplane by an unmanned warship.

But if Ukraine can do it, Russia can, too—now that it has its own drone boats.

Explore further

Ukraine’s missile crews are valuable targets now

A forest fire that burned for four days near Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported Black Sea residence has been extinguished, according to Krasnodar Oblast Governor Veniamin Kondratyev. The blaze, which spread to 41.5 hectares, started after drone debris fell in the area during Ukrainian strikes on 28 August.

The fire occurred near the village of Krynitsa, located approximately 10 kilometers from Putin’s palace on Cape Idokopas, Medusa and Astra reported, citing local authorities. One fire center burned less than one kilometer from Putin’s Krynitsa winery, according to The Insider.

“Through the fall of debris, one of the oil refinery installations caught fire, and forest fires also occurred in the area of Krynitsa village,” the Krasnodar Oblast operational headquarters said.

The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian oil refineries overnight on 28 August, including the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Oblast. The forest fire began on the morning of 28 August, expanding from its initial size to 41.5 hectares by 29 August.

NASA FIRMS mapping data shows the blaze located just 850 meters from the winery facility, The Insider reported. The winery gained attention in a 2021 Anti-Corruption Foundation investigation, where it appeared under the name Old Provence. The FBK documentary detailed luxury purchases for the facility, including “gilded Italian toilet brushes.”

Governor Kondratyev announced on August 31 that the forest fires in Gelendzhik had been extinguished. More than 500 people, more than 100 units of equipment, including BE-200 aircraft, IL-76 and 2 Mi-8 helicopters were involved in extinguishing, he said.

Russian media outlet Important Stories reported that the fire center may have been 3-4 kilometers from the presidential residence. The palace complex became widely known in January 2021 following the FBK investigation, though journalists noted that Putin has largely stopped flying to Sochi, where he previously spent much of spring and autumn.

The drone attack was part of broader Ukrainian strikes on 28 August, with Russian authorities reporting drone attacks across multiple oblasts and local residents documenting fires at two oil refineries and a railway junction

The Institute for the Study of War reported on 30 August that the Kremlin appears to have launched a coordinated informational effort posturing military strength on the battlefield in order to shape Western thinking and falsely portray a Russian victory as “inevitable.”

The Kremlin’s presentation of likely inflated territorial gain statistics without critical context for the losses for those gains is likely an attempt to manipulate perceptions about Russia’s military performance and buttress a longstanding Kremlin narrative that Russia’s victory on the battlefield is inevitable. It is not.

Russian generals inflate battlefield numbers

Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed on 30 August that Russian forces had seized 3,500 square kilometers and 149 settlements since March 2025. ISW assessed the real figure is about 2,346 square kilometers and 130 settlements. The Kremlin claims include exaggerated control in Sumy Oblast, Kupiansk, Lyman, and other directions.

Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed Russia was gaining 600–700 square kilometers per month. ISW calculated only 440–500 per month.

Real losses contradict Russian narrative

Russian non-Kremlin-aligned reported on 29 August that RND inheritance data suggests at least 93,000 Russian soldiers died in 2024, and 56,000 more since the start of 2025. By mid-2025, inheritance cases reached 2,000 per week. Most new missing persons rulings involved men.

ISW says these losses are unsustainable. Russia’s advance remains slow. It uses light vehicles and infiltration tactics, but cannot consolidate gains. The Kremlin’s statistics paint an incomplete picture of its battlefield performance.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited the Polish-Belarusian border to demonstrate European solidarity, according to Tusk’s statement on X.

The Polish Prime Minister said that Belarusian border guards “listened attentively” to their press conference at the frontier. Tusk wrote that the European Commission head had the opportunity to see the situation at the EU’s eastern border firsthand.

Since 2021, self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has refused to control the flow of refugees through his country to EU states, triggering a migration crisis. Poland responded by constructing a 5-meter electronic barrier along the Belarus border, equipped with thousands of cameras and surveillance technology designed to prevent illegal border crossings.

“I am here today to express Europe’s full solidarity with Poland as a frontline state. For many years now, you and the Polish people have faced deliberate and cynical hybrid attacks. I want to emphasize that Europe supports you in every possible way,” von der Leyen said during the visit.

The Commission President announced that the EU’s budget proposal for the next seven years would triple investments in migration, border management and protection. EU member states that share borders with Russia and Belarus will receive additional EU funding under the plan.

“I want to emphasize: Europe’s borders are a shared responsibility. Here we are at the Polish border, but also at the European border, and this is a shared responsibility,” von der Leyen said.

The visit comes as Poland continues to manage migration pressure along its eastern border, where the electronic barrier system represents one of the EU’s most technologically advanced border protection measures.

Russia is deliberately targeting Western-linked sites in Ukraine to send a message of defiance against diplomatic efforts to end the war, The New York Times reports. The strikes — aimed at an American-operated factory and European diplomatic offices — signal a calculated rejection of peace talks and Western involvement, according to officials and military analysts cited by the outlet.

Kremlin uses strikes to resist Western diplomacy

On 21 August, Russian cruise missiles hit a factory in Mukachevo run by Flex Ltd., an American multinational company best known locally for making Nespresso coffee machines. The plant, Ukraine’s largest employer in Zakarpattia Oblast, had no role in military production, according to local officials and the company itself. Nonetheless, it became a target just six days after US President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss possible paths toward ending the war.

A week later, two more Russian missiles struck central Kyiv, damaging buildings housing the European Union delegation and the British Council. The diplomatic quarter in Kyiv had previously been spared by Russian forces. Following the strikes, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen publicly accused Moscow of intentionally attacking EU diplomatic infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is now “striking at everyone in the world who seeks peace.”

These strikes were not isolated. NYT notes that more than half of American companies operating in Ukraine have already sustained damage from Russian attacks. The list includes major international names such as McDonald’s, Boeing-affiliated facilities, and a Philip Morris plant. The Flex factory alone, which employed around 3,000 people at the time of the strike, was the largest taxpayer in its oblast and produced only commercial consumer products.

A shift toward punishing peace supporters

According to NYT, the Kremlin’s choice of targets — foreign-linked civilian infrastructure and cultural institutions — suggests a deliberate effort to intimidate and punish those backing Ukraine’s defense and sovereignty through diplomacy, investment, or postwar security guarantees. Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko said the attacks are “a clear signal” that Putin now feels emboldened to extend the war beyond Ukraine and toward the West itself.

Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst based in Vienna, told NYT that Moscow is intentionally testing the boundaries of Western deterrence. The aim, he said, is to impose costs on Ukraine’s allies while avoiding direct military retaliation — a strategy designed to weaken Western resolve and push Ukraine into disadvantageous negotiations.

European governments are currently debating whether to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, and the strikes appear designed to dissuade that. Volodymyr Dubovyk, director of the Center for International Studies at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University, described the message from Moscow as clear: “Don’t you dare send your troops here.”

A pattern of escalation

The 28 August strike on Kyiv, which included hundreds of missiles and drones, killed at least 25 civilians — the deadliest attack on the capital since the Trump–Putin meeting. While none of the fatalities occurred at the damaged diplomatic offices, the choice of targets marked a dramatic shift in Russia’s strategy.

The Kremlin has dismissed negotiations as premature and rejected Western-proposed security guarantees for Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense falsely claimed that its strike on the Mukachevo factory was aimed at the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told NBC News he had allegedly “never heard about” the Flex attack, while simultaneously denying that Russia targets civilian sites.

Following the attacks, President Trump said he was “not happy” with Russia’s actions. However, the US response so far has been limited to verbal disapproval, with no new sanctions or retaliatory steps announced.

Armin Papperger, head of German defense conglomerate Rheinmetall, said Ukraine will soon receive its first ammunition from a new plant in Unterlüß, Lower Saxony, Deutsche Welle reports. 

First deliveries and 2026 plans

This year, 25,000 shells will be sent to Ukraine. The factory could produce 150,000 or more next year.

“We will increase production to 350,000 for Germany and Ukraine. Next year, we can deliver at least 100,000, and later possibly 200,000 shells to Ukraine,” Papperger noted.

Ukrainian plant: plans and challenges

Rheinmetall is building a similar factory in Ukraine, but bureaucracy is slowing the process.

“I discussed this with Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal. I told him: it can be done in 14 months. Currently, the civilian part isn’t ready; a concept is needed,” the CEO explained.

He added that the plant could be ready in 12–14 months if organizational issues are resolved.

Drones in Ukraine

The company also plans to invest in drone production — not small quadcopters, but larger, high-tech systems.

“If there are opportunities — we will do it,” Papperger added.