The Russian private military company Wagner is experiencing serious setbacks in Mali: around two thousand fighters failed to improve security or control resources as they did in the Central African Republic. Instead of fighting jihadists, the mercenaries clashed with the Malian army, which only increased violence, reports the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. 

Goïta junta and Kremlin plan failures

After the 2021 coup, power in Mali was seized by a junta led by Assimi Goïta, who hoped for effective cooperation with Russian mercenaries. Instead, the JNIM network (Al-Qaeda in the Sahel) continues to strengthen its position in the region, and civilian casualties rose from 736 per year to over 3,000 in 2022–2024. Notably, 80% of deaths were caused not by jihadists but by the local army and Wagner forces.

Internal conflicts: violence, disobedience, and racism

Relations between Russian mercenaries and Malian forces sharply deteriorated: reports show disobedience to orders, equipment theft, and acts of racism. In August, repression targeted dozens of officers who disagreed with Wagner methods. Civilians subjected to terror refuse to cooperate with the mercenaries.

Kremlin fails to control resources

Unlike in Sudan and the CAR, Russia did not gain access to mineral resources, including gold mines. Goïta rejected Moscow’s demands and is seeking alternative partners for security and resource extraction.

Russian forces launched a drone attack on oil terminals belonging to Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR in Odesa Oblast overnight on 18 August, triggering a major fire at the fuel infrastructure facility, according to regional officials.

Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper said that despite active air defense operations, the attack resulted in significant damage in the Odesa district.

A fire broke out at a fuel and energy infrastructure facility and a two-story building in the suburbs of Odesa, according to Kiper.

Former Deputy Prosecutor General Gunduz Mamedov identified the target as SOCAR’s oil terminals in a social media post. Sources within Ukraine’s State Emergency Service told Ukrainska Pravda that 10 drones were used in the attack on the Azerbaijani facility.

The emergency response involved over 100 personnel, including rescuers, volunteers, National Guard firefighters, and local fire brigade teams. Ukrainian Railways deployed a fire train to assist with extinguishing the blaze.

Preliminary reports indicate no casualties or injuries resulted from the attack.

This marks the second strike on SOCAR facilities in Odesa Oblast within 10 days. On 8 August, Russian forces hit the same oil depot with five Shahed-type drones, causing fires and damaging a diesel fuel pipeline.

The overnight assault was part of a broader Russian attack involving four missiles and 140 drones targeting multiple Ukrainian oblasts. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that air defense systems shot down or suppressed 88 Russian drones across northern, southern, eastern, and central areas of the country by 9:00 am.

The attacks resulted in confirmed strikes at 25 locations across Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Kyiv oblasts.

The Russian military regularly attacks Ukrainian oblasts with various types of weapons, killing civilians and destroying hospitals, schools, kindergartens, energy and water supply facilities. The Ukrainian authorities and international organisations qualify these strikes as war crimes by Russia and emphasise that they are of a targeted nature.

Overnight on 18 August, Russian forces also attacked residential building in Kharkiv, killing five people, including two children.

Russian propaganda threatens Azerbaijan with war over support for Ukraine. Pro-Kremlin media have intensified anti-Baku rhetoric, escalating accusations against the country of being “Western sellouts.” 

On 11 August, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a decree allocating $2 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine following Russian strikes on the state-owned SOCAR’s oil depot in Odesa Oblast and a gas compressor station that transports Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine.

The funds will be used to purchase electrical equipment for Ukraine.

“The Russian propaganda has launched a new wave of harsh anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric, ranging from accusations of being ‘Western sellouts’ to direct threats of war,” says the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.

Moscow is losing control over the South Caucasus 

As explained by the Center, the Kremlin is increasingly losing influence over Azerbaijan and can no longer impose its political or economic will. Therefore, Kremlin propaganda intensifies pressure through threats and war rhetoric to rally its domestic audience.

“Moscow can no longer dictate its political or economic will to Azerbaijan. Thus, propaganda tries to compensate for the loss of real leverage with threats,” the Center notes.

Azerbaijan strengthens its fight against Russian propaganda

Baku is actively freeing itself from Russian dominance: recently, the “Russkiy Dom” was closed, and the activities of Russian propaganda media have been restricted in the country.

The “Russkiy Dom” in Baku was a Russian information and cultural center functioning as a representative office of the agency engaged in strengthening Russia’s humanitarian influence abroad, in Azerbaijan. The center faced accusations of espionage activities disguised as cultural work.