The war in the Middle East could decide the fate of Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that Israeli “strikes have led to a sharp rise in oil prices,” which is a negative factor. According to him, “the Russians are strengthening due to higher revenues from oil exports,” UNIAN reports. 

“If there are price caps, the price will be limited, so probably the risks will decrease. Although someone will circumvent even that. That is, you cannot completely avoid the risks,” the president explains.

He claims that Ukraine will increase proposals to the American side for the introduction of price caps and sanctions against Russia’s energy sector.

“I will soon be in contact with the American side, probably with the president, and we will raise this issue,” Zelenskyy states.

At the same time, he draws attention to the military aspect.

“If we say that Iran is an ally of the Russians in supplying weapons, then have serious strikes been inflicted on the production of Shaheds and rockets, and other capabilities? We hope that it will decrease,” he says. 

Furthermore, he notes that the escalation in the Middle East leads to increased aid to Israel from the US.

“No one challenges the relationship between America and Israel, but we would like the aid to Ukraine not to decrease because of this,” the Ukrainian president stressed and recalled that previous tensions “slowed down aid to Ukraine.”

Earlier, expert Abbas Galliamov said that the Kremlin is losing one of its key bargaining chips in negotiations with Donald Trump amid Israel’s strikes on Iran. Up to 13 June, there was a kind of trade-off: “Ukraine in exchange for Iran.”

According to him, Trump would offer Putin not to put too much pressure on him over Ukraine for now, but in return, he counted on the Russian president’s support in negotiations with Tehran on its nuclear program. 

The world holds its breath after an Israeli strike on Iran, but Kyiv braces for worse as Washington’s priorities may shift, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports. 

Global reaction has been mixed, ranging from calls for restraint to avoid a regional war to open support for Israel’s decisive action. But for Ukraine, this escalation spells troubling consequences.

Analysts warn that the rising tensions between Israel and Iran could prompt the United States to divert its attention and resources from the war in Ukraine to the Middle East. This would be a deeply dangerous shift for Kyiv, which depends on uninterrupted allied support to resist Russian aggression.

“Without a doubt, this will distract some attention from the defense of Ukraine against Russian aggression,” said Roland Freudenstein, a Brussels-based analyst.

The Trump administration has been clear about its intent to bring the war in Ukraine to a swift close, even at the cost of painful compromises. A new crisis in the Persian Gulf only reinforces this narrative. Meanwhile, Trump’s self-imposed “two-week” window for striking a deal with Russia has just expired.

Beyond geopolitics, energy markets are also feeling the impact. Following Israel’s strikes, oil prices surged to $75 per barrel, a $5 spike in just hours. That’s direct profit for the Kremlin’s war chest.

“If the Middle East crisis deepens, it will inevitably push energy prices up. And in some ways, this benefits Russia,” warns analyst Ian Lesser.

While considering a price cap of $45 per barrel on Russian oil, the European Union risks losing leverage. Kyiv is demanding even tougher measures, a $30 cap, to strangle the Kremlin’s war financing. But in the current chaos, this plan may become harder to implement.

Once again, Ukraine stands to become a victim in a war, this time between Israel and Iran.