Russia is likely attempting to force Ukraine to capitulate by spring 2027 through a large-scale campaign of long-range strikes, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its 27 September report. Russian President Vladimir Putin's new theory of victory relies heavily on the mass use of jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles against Ukraine, the institute assesses.

Russia keeps shifting to faster jet-powered drones that Ukraine's defenses struggle to stop, forcing it to spend scarce missiles on them. Russia's use of jet-powered drones rose eightfold from June to August, with Moscow launching around 7,700 such drones since their initial deployment, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on 23 September. But Putin likely does not expect the campaign to last indefinitely, and he may hold off on a new mobilization until he sees whether the strikes work, ISW assesses.

Putin's modified theory of victory

Putin's modified theory of victory largely depends on Russia's ability to mass-launch cheap jet-powered Gerans that get through Ukrainian defenses often enough, the institute notes.

Even a Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger claimed on 27 September that the Russian strategy, which relies heavily on long-range strikes, is costly and cannot continue indefinitely, not least because Ukraine is hitting Russia harder too, according to the analysis.

At the same time, Putin stated on 25 September that Ukraine "must feel" Russia's "retaliatory" strikes. ISW assesses that this suggests he intends to intensify Russia's strike campaign in winter, as he has in previous winters.

If Putin is counting on Ukraine to break and capitulate this winter, he may be ignoring what the campaign will cost Russia over time, the institute notes. This strategy also counts on Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptors against ballistic missiles, and on the country's power grid and other vital systems giving way under months of strikes.

Until that approach runs out, Putin is unlikely to back down on his demands or agree to real ceasefire talks, ISW assesses.

Ukrainian interceptors could disrupt Russia's plan

A Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger claimed on 27 September that Russian forces launched predominantly jet-powered Geran-5 drones at Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv during the night of 26–27 September. According to the blogger, Russia's diverse arsenal of strike weapons and Ukraine's shortage of air defense assets allow Russian forces to maintain the current pace of strikes and expand the range of targets, ISW writes in its analysis.

At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 26 September that Ukraine's interception rate for jet-powered Shahed drones currently stands at 55%. Of more than 2,730 such drones Russia had launched in September by then, Ukrainian forces had downed or suppressed more than 1,500, he added.

Ukraine is testing interceptor drone prototypes in combat conditions, Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov told Novyny.LIVE on 27 September. The mass deployment of interceptors capable of shooting down jet-powered Gerans could begin within several months, he added. Ukrainian companies have already successfully tested several interceptor drones capable of intercepting Russian jet-powered drones in field conditions, the institute notes.

At the same time, it remains unclear whether Ukraine will be able to scale up its interceptor program quickly enough and achieve sufficient success to disrupt the intensification of Russia's campaign during the winter, ISW notes.

Why Putin may hold off on a new mobilization

Expanding Russia's arsenal of strike weapons is cheaper than carrying out a second mobilization economically, militarily, and socially, a Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger cited by the institute claimed.

Putin may put off large-scale forced mobilization until he sees whether the strikes deliver, ISW assesses, though his officials have been laying the groundwork for it despite Kremlin denials. Still, the need to replace Russia's enormous battlefield losses could push him to order such a mobilization as early as this fall, ISW notes, as Ukrainian and other sources have repeatedly reported he is preparing to do.

A Ukrainian Hornet drone struck a Russian radar system about 120 kilometers behind the front, Taras Myshak, senior communications officer of the 59th Separate Assault Brigade of Unmanned Systems, said on Suspilne on 28 September, ArmyInform reported. The brigade's Signum unmanned systems battalion carried out the strike about a week earlier, he added.

Russia's air defenses depend on radars to see Ukrainian drones and missiles coming. Every radar it loses weakens that watch and gives the next Ukrainian strike a better chance of getting through.

According to Myshak, the target was a "quite expensive" Russian radar system.

A radar system is effectively the "eyes" of the Russian air defense system: it detects aerial targets, determines their coordinates, and transmits information to other elements of the system.

Russians continue probing Ukrainian defenses

Russian forces in the brigade's zone, roughly along the Donetsk Oblast border, continue to operate in small infantry groups and use infiltration tactics, Myshak says. At the same time, the Russians are trying to cut Ukrainian logistics, he adds, saying that the brigade is effectively holding the Russian army back from infiltrating into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

The Russians' main means in this sector remain drones and infantry, the serviceman says. The number of infantry has decreased somewhat compared with previous periods, but the pressure from the enemy has not stopped, he adds.

"Of course, they will try, they will constantly probe, so to speak, our defense with their infiltrations. And likewise with drones, of various ranges, working on logistics, making it impossible for us to enter positions, to deliver everything necessary to the positions, in order to make our defense impossible," Myshak emphasized.

At the same time, Ukrainian troops are trying not only to defend against these actions but also to deprive the Russians of radars, electronic warfare systems, and other equipment, the serviceman says. "We likewise don't let them relax," he said.

Ukraine systematically knocks out the "eyes" of Russian air defense

In October 2024, Ukraine's military said it had hit a Russian Nebo-M radar station with ATACMS ballistic missiles to blunt Moscow's ability to spot and shoot down aircraft and missiles, Reuters reported. The military estimated each such system at more than $100 million.

Ukraine is systematically increasing its use of medium-range strike drones, which can hit targets up to 200 kilometers deep inside enemy territory, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported in May this year. Russian air defenses and radars are among the main priorities of such operations, as their destruction weakens the system for detecting and intercepting aerial targets, the ministry said. Medium-class drones, including the FP-2, Hornet, and Bulava, play a critical role in such strikes, the ministry noted.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces struck at least 25 major Russian air defense and radar systems during April, about 12 of which were radar systems, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry also wrote in May this year.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published a map in its analytical report on 24 September that contrasts the claimed Russian encirclement with the location of Russian forces as assessed by the experts. Based on the evidence observed by ISW, the nearest area where Russian forces are present is 10.2 kilometers from the southeastern outskirts of Dobropillia.

Russia has been spreading disinformation about its successes around Dobropillia as part of what ISW calls a cognitive warfare effort to portray Ukrainian defenses as on the verge of collapse. Russia's Defense Ministry published a map claiming the city was surrounded. ISW's own map challenges it. The Ukrainian military says the city remains under its control.

Russian Defense Ministry claims it is already destroying encircled Ukrainian troops in Dobropillia and moving further

Units of Russia's Center Grouping of Forces continue combat operations against encircled Ukrainian forces in the Dobropillia area of Donetsk Oblast while simultaneously advancing toward Oleksandrivka, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed. ISW analysts, meanwhile, said they have not observed evidence supporting Russia's claim that the city is encircled. They also noted that Ukrainian officials "directly refute" the claim.

ISW observed evidence that Russian infiltrators, small groups, were operating east and northeast of Dobropillia on 19 and 20 September. The institute did not assess that these infiltrators had consolidated their positions.

Ukrainian forces maintain positions south and northeast of Dobropillia, military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets said on 20 September, according to ISW.

Russian forces have not made major gains in the Dobropillia direction, the chief of staff of an artillery reconnaissance battalion said on 22 September, according to the institute. On the same day, a Russian milblogger described the "alleged Russian encirclement of Dobropillia" as potentially meaning not the direct presence of infantry, but only the establishment of fire control over Ukrainian logistics, including roads west of Dobropillia and toward Sviatohorivka, according to ISW.

ISW noted that Russia's pervasive military culture of lying—what Russian milbloggers themselves call "beautiful reports"—has degraded the Defense Ministry's own ability to understand the battlefield and enabled inflated claims like the Dobropillia encirclement.

Russia uses this disinformation as a "diversion"

In its statement, the Russian Defense Ministry itself described Dobropillia as a "strongly fortified settlement" whose seizure would threaten key Ukrainian supply lines running from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast toward the Fortress Belt—the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka urban agglomeration.

Russia has recently renewed its attempts to break through toward Dobropillia.

Third Army Corps Commander Andrii Biletskyi said that Russian forces sought to bypass the fortified cities through Dobropillia and link up with troops advancing from north of Lyman, rather than launch a direct assault. ISW noted on 16 September that the Vivaldi operation disrupted Russia's two-pronged plan. In its 24 September report, ISW said Russia's claims about Dobropillia were partly intended to divert attention from Ukraine's elimination of the Russian salient north of Lyman, which has likely forced Russia's command to rethink its wider encirclement plans.

Russia is trying to "scare Europe" through hybrid attacks so that it provides less support to Ukraine, but Moscow has neither an interest in nor the capability to escalate to a full-scale military confrontation with NATO, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told Politico on 21 September during an interview on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly—even as other European leaders warn that Russian strikes on NATO territory could come within months.

Ukraine critically needs Western support as Russia's full-scale invasion continues. NATO's PURL program has provided about 75% of all Patriot battery missiles and 90% of the missiles used in other air defense systems since its launch last summer, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on 3 February. Some countries are also hubs for defense companies that produce weapons for Ukraine. Russia is trying to pressure such countries, including through hybrid attacks. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the head of the Czech security service have warned that Russia could strike NATO territory within months. The Finnish president says his own intelligence sees activity but no imminent military threat, and calls it an "overreaction" when intelligence services tell their neighbors they are next for a Russian invasion.

Finnish intelligence sees Russian activity but no imminent military threat, Stubb says

Stubb calls claims by some intelligence services that Europe is next for a Russian invasion an "overreaction" and says he sees no evidence of this.

"We think we have to be vigilant and awake. But, you know, we have the longest border in NATO with Russia, it's half the border. In our intelligence we see that there is activity but no imminent military threat right now," Stubb added.

He says Russia will continue hybrid attacks, so Europe must be prepared and support Ukraine

Europe should prepare for Russia's "continued hybrid and sabotage attacks," but should not "overreact" to them, as Russia wants to scare its allies so that they slow down their support for Ukraine, the Finnish president said.

"And any time we overreact to a hybrid attack, they have actually won the battle in that particular way," Stubb told Politico.

Europe should remain "cool, calm and collected" during such Russian intimidation, the Finnish president said.

Germany's recent decision to officially hold Russia responsible for an attempted drone attack in Leipzig is "exactly what you need to do," Stubb said.

"You need to point the finger and say, we know what you're doing, and these are the consequences," he added.

A pro-Kremlin group, Global Citizens Against War 1984, issued an ultimatum to Latvia, Poland, and Portugal to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine by 7 October, threatening to disrupt defense companies in those countries.

Warnings from Warsaw and Prague paint a different picture

Russia could carry out "accidental" drone or missile strikes against NATO countries supporting Ukraine in an attempt to weaken the Alliance's integrity and persuade members that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in parliament on 17 September, citing NATO, Ukrainian, and Polish intelligence assessments.

"There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank," Tusk said.

The head of the Czech security service warned separately that Russia could undertake a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, and a massive influence campaign in a matter of months rather than years.

Poland will provide another aid package to Ukraine, which will include, among other things, “what Ukraine needs right now,” Deputy Minister of National Defense Stanisław Wziątek said, reports Polskie Radio. He said the package would include missiles for F-16 fighter jets, which the Ukrainian military uses to shoot down Russian drones.

Ukraine is critically short of missiles for F-16 fighter jets, which shoot down Russian UAVs. Recently, it was reported that pilots sometimes took off without missiles, using only the aircraft’s built-in M61A1 Vulcan cannon, which is dangerous for civilians. Poland’s newly promised aid will include these missiles for Ukraine.

Among other things, Poland will provide aviation equipment, the report said. Media reports added that the aid package may be worth around €50 million.

Ammunition for F-16s and possible aviation equipment

“Our aid is in the process of being prepared. Everything will happen in a moment. I cannot say what it contains, I can only say that it is what Ukraine needs right now. This includes basic ammunition. These are the ones mounted on F-16s to shoot down Russian drones,” Wziątek said.

AIM-9 and AIM-120 are air-to-air missiles that the Ukrainian Armed Forces use with F-16s to fight Russian aviation, Militarnyi says. The outlet adds that last year Ukrainian F-16s were spotted with APKWS II missiles, which are effective against drones. As for the aforementioned aviation equipment, Poland may provide decommissioned MiG-29 fighter jets or drones, the media outlet suggests.

The MiG-29 does not use the same scarce stocks of AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles.

Missile shortage is not new

In July 2025, America abruptly suspended arms supplies to Ukraine, affecting some types of weapons. Among them were more than 90 US-made AIM air-to-air missiles that were in Poland and on their way to Ukraine, but were withdrawn by the US, according to a Wall Street Journal article. Since then, Ukraine has received Western aid for air defense systems, but missiles have remained among the items in short supply.

Ukraine faced a severe shortage of F-16 missiles from late November to mid-December, according to Reuters. One source said Ukraine had "nothing to put on its jets for almost a month."

While F-16s likely rank first by number in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Soviet-made MiG-29 ranks second, Euromaidan Press. Ukraine had enough R-73 missiles for this fighter, but when the Ukrainian Armed Forces also began using them for ground-based launchers after 9M33 missiles for Soviet Osa air defense systems ran out, the rate of consumption increased sharply.

Ukrainian forces were observed resuming the use of older missiles that had been considered obsolete. There is an alternative: using the fighter’s cannon. However, this practice is dangerous.

A large-scale police operation is underway after a drone of unknown origin crashed 1 kilometer from a Bundeswehr base, German media outlet Bild reported on 15 September.

Drones have repeatedly flown over German military bases, and German prosecutors are already treating one August find near Ukraine-bound cargo as attempted sabotage. Germany's military counterintelligence has tied repeated sabotage on German soil to Russia, with high probability. Neither the owner nor the origin of this drone is known. Russia has denied involvement in earlier incidents, some of which Germany has officially attributed to it.

Discovery near airbase triggers large-scale search

Parts of the drone were found east of Lake Steinhude, the media outlet said. The crash site is one kilometer from the Bundeswehr's Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony, the German military confirmed to the outlet. The drone crashed in an open, uninhabited area, the state criminal police office said. After the debris was discovered, authorities launched a large-scale search operation in the area to find additional parts of the UAV, according to Bild.

Investigators do not yet know who owns the drone

The search continues, and the state criminal police office says there are so far no indications of a danger to the public. Investigators learned about the discovery on Monday and want to analyze any other drone parts they find to determine its origin, the media outlet reported. Only then could more be said about the circumstances of the crash, it added.

Drones have been spotted over Bundeswehr bases many times

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the number of reports of drone sightings has "increased significantly" and become "more consistent," a spokesperson for the Bundeswehr Operations Command told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) in August.

"Overall, several hundred suspected drone overflights have been reported in the area of the German Armed Forces in recent years," the command spokesperson told RND.

What came before this crash

Germany is the busiest front in Russia's covert campaign in Europe. A Semtex-laden drone turned up beside a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle airport in August, and investigators this month named a Russian intelligence operative and a Belarusian petty criminal. Berlin blamed Moscow and ordered Russia's Bonn consulate closed.

Two Bulgarians were arrested over a September arson at a Munich building site between two defense-tech headquarters, a day after two attempts to sabotage the power grid that Germany has not attributed. Germany suspects a planned assassination of a Bavarian drone maker's boss, watched by agents hired for single jobs.

Explore further

The throwaway agents Moscow sent after a Bavarian drone boss arming Ukraine—and how Germany stopped them

Not every strand leads to Moscow. German military counterintelligence this week attributed part of the drone activity over Bundeswehr sites to Chinese intelligence.

Elsewhere the tempo holds: Polish prosecutors have opened more than a hundred espionage cases in 20 months, and in the Netherlands a former commander of US Army forces in Europe said Russian saboteurs attacked the rail network and tried to kill him, which Dutch Railways said they knew nothing about.

Russian forces have stepped up their attempts to break through toward Dobropillia in recent weeks, staff sergeant Dmytro Davydenko of the Svoboda Battalion headquarters said on the Suspilne Studio broadcast on 14 September.

Dobropillia is an important transportation hub in northern Donetsk Oblast, with a key road connecting it to Kramatorsk. Russian forces are using every possible factor, including weather conditions, to seize Dobropillia as part of their efforts to capture the entire Donetsk Oblast.

He noted that Russian forces may be taking advantage of the “greenery” to move as many troops as possible closer to the settlement and then enter Dobropillia when the weather deteriorates, potentially leading to urban combat.

The actions may be part of a tactic Russia has used before, but Ukraine has taken it into account

“Right now, there is a huge increase in the number of mobile groups moving in this direction. Sometimes we simply cannot keep up with engaging those we detect because there is a very large number of movements advancing in all directions right now,” Dmytro said.

Russian forces may use poor weather conditions to attempt something similar to what they did in Pokrovsk, when they tried to bring in a large number of troops using mechanized columns, the staff sergeant said. He added that the Ukrainian military had “drawn certain conclusions” and created obstacles for Russian forces along the routes to Dobropillia: the roads have either been destroyed, mined, or blocked.

The number of assault troops has increased, but Russia faces limitations

Russia can increase the number of troops in the area, but its capabilities are limited, Davydenko said. He explained that one drone operator cannot simultaneously support 20–30 assault groups on different axes, so an increase in the number of Russian troops is unlikely to result in a “critical onslaught.”

“To bring in an even larger number of fighters, I don’t know how well they will manage that, because there is the factor of the physical ability to bring this number of people to the staging point and then lead this large number of people along the route,” Davydenko said.

The Kremlin revives its push toward Dobropillia

Russia prioritized offensive operations toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillia to encircle Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the southwest, but the timeline for such an encirclement is “extremely unrealistic,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its 7 August report.

The fortress belt consists of four fortified cities that have formed the backbone of Ukraine’s defense in Donetsk Oblast since 2022: Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk. Dobropillia sits at its southwestern corner.

The city initially became a target of Russian strikes as Russian forces advanced toward Pokrovsk, and later became a target for capture. On 11 August 2025, Russian forces managed to approach Dobropillia and cut the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway in the opening days of their offensive. Ukrainian forces later reported that they had encircled and eliminated these troops.

In spring and summer 2026, Russia would “almost certainly” attempt to repeat its success in Dobropillia, predicted Francis Farrell for the Kyiv Independent. That is what happened. On 26 July, reports emerged that Russia was once again massing around Dobropillia, using quad bikes and motorcycles, following the same infiltration pattern as in 2025.

An oil refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban in southern Russia was attacked overnight on 13 September, Astra reported. By morning, residents began posting videos showing smoke over the refinery and nearby areas. That same morning, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) reported that Ukrainian drones had struck the Slavyansk-EKO refinery.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have become systematic, aimed in part at reducing the Russian military’s access to fuel, which is critical for waging the war. Ukrainian forces have been striking strategic facilities located hundreds of kilometers from the front line.

The design capacity of Slavyansk-EKO is approximately 5.2 million tonnes per year, though actual volumes are lower by about one to two million tonnes, Militarnyi reports.

Thick smoke visible for dozens of kilometers

The Ukrainian strike hit a key oil-processing unit and the facility’s oil storage tank farm, which “fuels the criminal war against Ukraine,” HUR reported.

Two oil storage tanks were destroyed in the strike, according to photos published by Dnipro Osint. Militarnyi noted that the photos also show damage to neighboring tanks.

The strike reportedly hit the area containing the facility’s largest storage tanks. The refinery operates using purchased or tolling crude oil because it does not have its own crude oil production base.

The refinery has been targeted before

Slavyansk-EKO is one of the largest independent oil refineries in southern Russia. The facility is located in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, about 69 kilometers northwest of Krasnodar.

Ukraine’s General Staff said that the refinery is “part of the energy rear of the Russian Federation and involved in supplying the armed forces of the aggressor.”

Before the 13 September strike, Ukrainian drones had struck the refinery at least four times, starting in 2024:

• 27 April 2024 — a Ukrainian drone attack damaged the Slavyansk refinery, after which a fire broke out at the facility.
  
• 19 May 2024 — SBU drones attacked the Slavyansk refinery, after which the facility suspended operations.
  
• 26 January 2026 — Ukrainian Defense Forces struck infrastructure at the Slavyansk-EKO refinery. According to preliminary data, elements of the primary oil refining unit were damaged.
  
• Five months later, on 28 June, Ukraine struck the Slavyansk refinery again, causing a large fire at the facility. EP noted that the refinery supplies fuel, including to occupied Crimea.
  

Belarus' Defense Ministry said a command-staff exercise will run from 14 to 16 September in the Cherven and Berezino districts of Minsk Oblast. It closes a reservist training camp that began there on 25 August, part of a wider round that also took in the Vawkavysk district of Hrodna Oblast from 26 August, the ministry announced.

Under Alyaksandr Lukashenka's rule, Belarus remains Russia's closest ally in the war against Ukraine, supplying weapons, intelligence, and industrial capacity while Moscow fights. That alliance is what makes drills inside Belarus a question for its neighbors: Russia may again use Belarus to launch an attack on Ukraine or a NATO member state.

The Belarusian army is "preparing for war so that there will be no war," Belarusian ruler Lukashenka said during a visit to a military training ground in Brest Oblast on 11 September. He said the whole armed forces would be checked, up to mobilization, with some units deployed to wartime norms, while denying any intention to attack, since Belarus could not win a war against its neighbors.

Belarus prepares reservists for military missions

The exercise is meant to sharpen officers' command of subordinate territorial defense forces and drill personnel in coordinated action, and the deputy chairman of the Minsk oblast executive committee will lead it.

"Particular attention will be paid to the interaction of territorial troops with internal affairs bodies, internal troops, as well as people's militia units in the protection of important facilities, ensuring martial law and fighting enemy sabotage groups," the ministry said.

The people's militia is a volunteer reserve, and the internal troops are the Interior Ministry's own armed formations rather than part of the army.

Minsk steps up territorial defense training as Lithuania launches military drills

Since late March 2026, Belarus' Defense Ministry has announced at least 11 events involving territorial troops, Poland-based Belarusian broadcaster Belsat reported. Most of them were training camps, but command-and-staff exercises and drills were also held, the media outlet said.

Uladzimir Zhyhar, a representative of BELPOL, an association of former Belarusian security officers opposing Lukashenka's regime, highlighted in comments to Belsat the exercises conducted for Belarus' Interior Ministry. The Interior Ministry is preparing to suppress internal protests, while the Defense Ministry wants to conduct exercises that would, among other things, practice responding to saboteurs entering Belarus and breaches of the state border, he said.

"Why can this happen? BELPOL representatives have repeatedly said that there is currently no threat from either NATO countries or Ukraine to Belarus. Therefore, something must change around the country as a whole," Zhyhar said, adding: "And that change would bring both possible destabilization inside Belarus, meaning a threat to the regime, and the likelihood of a breach of the state border."

One scenario he sees is Belarus being drawn into a war against Ukraine or NATO countries, which would prompt a response. The skills currently being practiced by the Defense Ministry and Interior Ministry could then be needed, the expert said.

On 14 September, military exercises began in 12 municipalities in Lithuania and run until 18 September, LRT reported. The NATO member shares a 679-kilometer border with Belarus, and its troops are training to act together against military threats of various kinds, using drones, boats, and weapons.

Belarus has been militarizing steadily since 2022, holding exercises almost without pause, including joint drills with Russian forces.

RFE/RL's investigative project Sistema examined hundreds of Russian-Iranian scientific papers published over the past decade and identified links between Russian universities and Iran's defense industry.

Russia has been invading Ukraine since 2014 and has pounded its cities nightly since 2022 with Shaheds, the Iranian-designed attack drones it turns out by the thousand. And now Russian universities are where some of Iran's military engineers learn their trade, before returning to institutions tied to Iran's army and Revolutionary Guards.

At St Petersburg's ITMO University, Iranian co-authored papers almost equaled German ones in number in 2025, although Germany had been a key partner before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Sistema's count shows.

Academic ties with a military edge

For almost four decades, Russia has trained Iranian engineers in fields including aircraft manufacturing, missile development, satellite navigation, and nuclear technology, Sistema reported. Almost 10,000 Iranian students were enrolled at Russian universities in 2025, 42% more than two years earlier, according to Russia's science ministry. Medicine remains the most popular field.

In some cases, the training goes beyond ordinary academic exchange. In 2018, Iranian students from the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI) interned at Vympel, a Russian manufacturer of missile weapons, alongside other foreign students, Sistema reported.

The investigation also examined the career of Ali Mohammad Amoui, who completed postgraduate study in gas turbine engines in 2000 at the MATI technological university in Moscow, later absorbed into MAI. From 2017 to 2022, he served as deputy director general for trade and international relations of Farsco Aviation MRO Center, whose shareholders, according to Iranian corporate records cited by the investigation, include Iran's Aviation Industries Organization, part of the country's Defense Ministry, and the sanctioned airline Mahan Air. Farsco presents itself as a civilian maintenance business.

Amoui co-authored research with MAI scientists on protective coatings for turbine blades and the strengthening of titanium components in aircraft engines. He also listed Iran's Malek Ashtar University of Technology, which answers to the Iranian Defense Ministry, as his workplace.

Another area of cooperation is satellite navigation and electronic warfare. Iranian professor Mohammad-Reza Mousavi, who edits a journal published by Iran's naval academy, researched GPS spoofing and worked with specialists at Samara University in 2016.

His PhD student Amir Tabatabaei also studied in Samara and worked on GLONASS, Sistema reported. It added that the two developed a method to detect fake GPS signals and published their research in a journal of the Russian defense concern Elektropribor, which develops navigation systems for the Russian Navy.

Russia and Iran share scientific interests in nuclear physics

Some of this work is dual-use, with civilian and military applications alike. Sistema describes Iranian Mohammad Hosseinpour Khanmiri, who studied methods for measuring uranium and thorium isotopes at St Petersburg State University. By 2022, he had applied a method he had developed with a Russian scientist to ore from Iran’s Saghand deposit. He later listed the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran as his workplace.

His co-authors also had links to Iran’s nuclear program, the investigation reports. Mohammad Outokesh, who studied the operation of gas centrifuges, co-authored a paper with Javad Karimi-Sabet, a deputy head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. Iran's then president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, commended Karimi-Sabet in 2006 for his work on nuclear equipment at Natanz, including a new generation of centrifuges. The US and European countries later imposed sanctions on Karimi-Sabet.

Romania’s presidential administration denied rumors circulating online that the country would send military personnel to the front in Ukraine. It called such claims “an alarmist manipulation.” Up to 20 officers are expected to join the command structure of the multinational support force, which is based in France and the United Kingdom, according to the statement.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is affecting Black Sea region states, including Romania, the Romanian presidential administration said on 9 September. Consequently, the country is taking measures to protect, first and foremost, its own citizens, the statement said. Romania is bolstering its defense capabilities against the backdrop of Russian drone airspace violations.

Why is Romania sending these military personnel?

“Romania's top priority is protecting and defending our citizens, which is why our country participates in all international formats that help achieve this major security objective,” the presidential administration explained.

It cited the Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine as one such format, which was established to provide Ukraine with a system of political and legal guarantees after a ceasefire agreement is reached. The administration said that the coalition’s work would provide guarantees of peace and stability for the entire Black Sea region.

The administration highlighted the Operational Command for the Multinational Force in Support of Ukraine, which has been operating since 2025 and which Romania plans to join. For this purpose, the president asked parliament to approve the participation of up to 20 military personnel. They will work at the headquarters and in subordinate command structures.

Bucharest stressed that these military personnel will not take part in combat operations on Ukrainian territory and that Romania will not send its combat troops to Ukraine.

Romania has supported Ukraine for years

Romania is an EU member and has supported Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion. The country is also ready to become a transit hub for Western peacekeeping forces, then-Romanian President Ilie Bolojan said last year. He said that supporting Ukraine is also necessary for the security of Romanian citizens.

"Our consultations confirmed Romania's principled readiness to continue supporting Ukraine. It is not just about helping a victim of aggression—an essential issue—but also about protecting our own security. If Russia's current course continues, and given this region's history, Ukraine may only be the first target," Bolojan warned.

In December of the same year, Romania allocated €50 million for Ukraine’s defense through the US-led PURL initiative. The initiative aims to purchase US weapons for Ukraine, with allies providing the funds while NATO handles the logistics.

At the MSPO 2026 arms exhibition in Poland, the Luch Design Bureau, part of the state conglomerate Ukroboronprom, presented the RK-19 surface-to-air missile for the Soviet-made Osa air defense systems and disclosed its specifications for the first time, Defense Express reports.

The Osa-AKM forms the backbone of Ukraine's remaining Soviet Osa fleet, and it is the missiles rather than the launchers that are running out, so a Ukrainian-built interceptor lets those launchers keep engaging jet drones and cruise missiles as the Soviet stock runs down.

Its maker's materials describe the RK-19 as designed to intercept subsonic and supersonic targets "at medium range," Defense Express reports. The missile uses radio-command guidance and proximity detonation and carries a 14.3-kg high-explosive fragmentation warhead.

The missile is similar to the original, but slightly faster

On its main specifications, the RK-19 is similar to the standard missile used by the Osa-AKM, although its maximum speed is somewhat higher, Defense Express notes. Both engage targets at ranges of up to 10 km and altitudes of up to 5 km.

However, their speeds differ: the upgraded missile reaches 600 m/s, while the standard 9M33M3 reaches 500 m/s. Their weights also differ: the transport-launch container with the new missile weighs 163 kg, compared with 157 kg for the standard missile, the outlet reports.

Domestic missile keeps Osa launchers firing at jet drones

The RK-19 will allow the older air defense systems to continue protecting Ukrainian skies and intercepting aerodynamic targets, including jet-powered drones and cruise missiles such as the Banderol, according to Defense Express. The price of the Ukrainian surface-to-air missile for the Osa systems and its production volumes have not yet been disclosed.

The Osa systems were effective through 2022 and into 2023, destroying a significant number of Russian drones and cruise missiles, Militarnyi notes. However, the stock of standard missiles for the Osa systems later began to run out, significantly reducing the intensity of their use, the outlet reports.

With interceptors limited, Ukraine's Armed Forces had to use older missiles for the Osa systems, which had poorer specifications, and integrated short-range air-to-air missiles such as the R-73. That route carried its own drawbacks: reduced range, and reliance on the missile's own seeker, Defense Express reports.

Ukraine has developed its own jet-powered drone, as the arms race is pushing Kyiv to produce answers to Russia's new fast Banderol and Geran-3 drones. Ukraine's “Bars” missile-drones currently consist of more than 74% Ukrainian-made components, but their turbojet engines are still imported, the developer of the “Bars” missile-drones said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine on 7 September.

The “Bars” jet-powered drone can carry out strikes at a range of up to 1,000 km, and the team plans to increase its range in the future, the developer said in the interview. To speed up and increase production of such drones for the Ukrainian army, the team is trying to make the jet-powered drone consist of as many domestically produced parts as possible. This will remove the limitation on how many such jet-powered drones Ukraine can produce and deploy in response to Russia’s use of similar drones against Ukrainian cities.

“Without exaggeration, we source them from all over the world,” the Bars developer said in the interview about the imported engines.

The UAV strikes the Russian army both in occupied territories and deep inside Russia

The developer calls Bars a missile-drone: it resembles a missile because it has a jet engine, and a drone because it can be controlled by a pilot.

The basic characteristics of Bars include a warhead weighing up to 60 kilograms, a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, and a speed of more than 700 kilometers per hour, the developer added. He also explained that the UAV’s system is a modular platform that allows the drone to be used “in different planes.”

“Our basic modularity allowed ‘Bars’ to receive three main categories of use: DeepStrike, ‘middle-strike,’ and ‘front-strike,’” the developer said in the interview.

He also said that there have been more than 40 “engineering officially” modifications and iterations of the UAV alone.

A Bars production facility is already in Europe and will begin operating in early September

The first batch of Bars drones is planned to be delivered as early as 10 October, according to the interview.

“As of today, the only limitation to scaling up the production of ‘Bars’ is the so-called ‘bottleneck,’ and it is not so much the volumes as the delivery times of turbojet engines,” the developer said.

It was previously reported that Ukraine and Germany had signed an agreement on the joint production of Bars drones. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said this on 8 July 2026. He said that at the first stage of the project, Germany would finance the production, while all manufactured UAVs would be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Germany will close Russia’s General Consulate in Bonn, terminate the agreement concerning the Russian House in Berlin, and tighten entry controls for Russian citizens. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul announced this at a joint press conference with Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt on 1 September, after German authorities formally attributed the attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport to Russia.

German investigators have identified two suspects allegedly linked to the operation: a Russian-born man with a Latvian passport and a Belarusian man with a Russian passport. This information was reported by Süddeutsche Zeitung. Investigators believe both have links to Russian state structures, according to the report.

Both men have already left Germany, complicating efforts to bring them to justice, Tagesschau reports. One of Berlin’s responses was the closure of Russia’s Consulate General in Bonn — the last Russian consulate general remaining in Germany.

Germany tightens its Russia policy

Russia’s General Consulate in Bonn will close on 18 September, according to Wadephul. Germany will also seek additional EU sanctions against people linked to Russian hybrid attacks, increase pressure on Russia’s “shadow fleet,” and strengthen entry controls for Russian nationals.

He stated that since the beginning of "the unlawful war of aggression" against Ukraine, Germany's goal has been to bring the war to an end, restore the peace order in Europe, and return to a constructive relationship.

"However, this requires a minimum level of willingness on the Russian side. We must acknowledge that Russia shows no willingness to reach an accommodation,” Wadephul said.

Moscow rejected the accusations. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Germany’s response a “grave mistake,” TASS reports.

The investigation leads to two suspects

According to German investigators, the Belarusian suspect left DNA traces on one of the drones, inside a container containing explosives, and on an antenna found near the airport. The Russian-born suspect, who holds a Latvian passport, is believed to have coordinated and directed the operation, entered Germany through Berlin, and then traveled toward Saxony.

The Russian-born suspect left Germany two days before the attack, while the Belarusian suspect also left the country.

What happened at Leipzig Airport

The diplomatic response stems from a sabotage attempt on 4 August, when a bomb-laden drone struck a Ukrainian An-124 cargo aircraft but failed to detonate. The drone, carrying explosives, remained unnoticed for about four hours before being discovered, while later analysis indicated it had been aimed at the aircraft near its fuel tanks.

On 1 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a conversation with journalists that Russian troops had 12 km left to reach Sumy. Censor.NET estimated from DeepState’s map that Russian forces were approximately 17 km from Sumy’s administrative boundary.

Russian military commanders have systematically exaggerated their gains on the battlefield. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) describes such claims as part of a Kremlin information campaign aimed at creating the impression of major Russian gains. In this case, the Russian president cited exaggerated gains that, compared with his previous claims, appear to be a setback.

What Putin said

“The ‘North’ group of forces continues to create a security belt along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the border areas of the Sumy region... There are 12 km left to Sumy, to the Sumy ring road,” Putin said during the press conference.

Censor.NET reported that Russian forces were about 17 km from Sumy without specifying the reference point, while Putin did not say which section of the city’s ring road his 12 km figure referred to.

Putin previously gave a different distance

On 28 June, during an interview with Russian propagandist Pavel Zarubin, Putin said that Russian troops had “about 10.5 km” left to reach Sumy. At the time, he also explained the offensive as the creation of a “security zone” along Russia’s border.

Putin’s claimed distance to Sumy therefore increased by approximately 1.5 km in just over two months, contradicting the Kremlin’s portrayal of a continuing advance.

Other exaggerations

In July 2026, Putin claimed that Russian forces had “completely captured” Kostiantynivka. Ukraine’s General Staff rejected the claim, saying Ukrainian forces continued defensive operations in the city. ISW also said some videos of Russian flags being raised in Kostiantynivka were likely AI-altered.

On 2 December 2025, Putin claimed that Russian forces had captured Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. ISW found no evidence confirming the city’s complete capture and assessed that its fall would not enable Moscow to achieve a significant breakthrough.