Ukraine’s recent assault on airbases across Russia has already ushered in a new conventional wisdom: the expensive, human-crewed weapons (tanks, planes, ships) that have long defined the world’s “advanced” militaries have been rendered obsolete by inexpensive drones.

However, this view is incomplete, and perhaps dangerously misleading. Today’s drone warfare offers sobering lessons that go far beyond the vulnerability of expensive legacy weapons; and the looming integration of AI into drone warfare will make the current situation look positively quaint.

Consider the lessons of the Ukraine war so far. First, the impact of drones goes far beyond legacy weapons. Drones have indeed rendered tanks and armored personnel carriers extremely vulnerable, so Russian ground assaults now frequently use troops on foot, motorcycles, or all-terrain vehicles.

Drones are also effective against almost everything else. Ukraine has used drones to destroy Russian targets as varied as weapons factories, moving trains, ammunition stores, oil refineries, ships, and ports. It could be worse; in fact, Ukraine has shown great restraint, considering Russia’s barbaric conduct. Airport terminals, train stations at rush hour, athletic and concert stadiums, pharmaceutical factories, hospitals, schools, nursing homes — all are equally vulnerable.

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Two additional sobering lessons from Ukraine concern how drone warfare depends on its industrial base. First, speed and responsiveness are critical. Drone technology, weapons, and tactics now evolve at a blinding pace. A new drone will be useful for only 2-6 months. The other side develops countermeasures, requiring the development of new products, against which new countermeasures are developed, and so on.

At first, the drones used in Ukraine were crude weapons, radio-controlled by a pilot who needed to be nearby. As drones became more sophisticated and lethal, jamming was used to block their radio signals, which led to frequency changes and then frequency hopping, which was then countered by multi-frequency jammers, which then engendered drones that attack jamming equipment.

Then Russia developed drones controlled via fiber-optic cable — impervious to jamming. Ukraine tries to track the cable to its source and kill the pilots (with drones). Now Ukraine has fiber-optic drones, too.

Guidance is ever more sophisticated, so that drones can evade radar by flying very low or using stealth technology. But drone detection and tracking systems have also advanced, employing networks of cellphones and microphones connected to audio analysis software, as well as using Lidar, radar, and cameras.

In response, however, Ukraine’s drone industry and military developed a revolutionary model of weapons research and development, production, and deployment, based on direct, continuous communication between frontline units and drone producers.

Here, Ukraine benefited from having a strong startup ecosystem, which supports a weapons industry (with hundreds of companies) capable of designing, producing, and fielding a new weapon in a matter of weeks. This year, Ukraine will produce more than four million drones, most of them models that did not exist even a year ago. Unfortunately, Russia has adapted as well, also relying heavily on private startups.

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Some 80% of the electronics used in Russian drones are sourced from China. While Ukraine was initially highly dependent on China, it has reduced its reliance to perhaps 20%, most of that obtained covertly.

Yet US and European defense R&D and procurement remain slow and uncompetitive, which cripples their ability to defend against drones, as well as their ability to use them. Although few people realize it, the US and NATO now desperately need Ukraine for its drone expertise.

Moreover, AI will change everything. Ukraine’s 1 June operation used 117 drones, each controlled by a skilled operator, and reports suggest that something like half were defeated by Russian defenses — jamming, mainly — because the drones needed to be in radio communication with their controllers. Had they been autonomous, there could have been a thousand of them.

And with AI, there is no need for pilot communication, and thus no effective jamming, greatly increasing drone range and lethality. Five years from now, it will be terrifyingly easy to launch preemptive strikes on conventional targets.

True, the required AI functionality still demands far more computing power and memory than can be put into a small drone. Nor is it cheap. Nvidia chips, for example, cost up to $50,000 each, so even one powerful AI processor would make most drones prohibitively expensive.

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However, that’s changing fast, driven by the goal of putting serious AI capability into every phone. When that happens, those same capabilities will be available to every drone weapon. And with the sole, vital exception of AI processors, the entire supply chain for both phones and drone weapons is dominated by China.

Stuart Russell, an AI specialist at the University of California, Berkeley, has long argued for an arms-control treaty to prevent the spread of small, mass produced, AI-controlled drone weapons. He even underwrote the production of a short film, Slaughterbots, which dramatizes the risks these drones could pose in the wrong hands.

At a dinner years ago, he told me that it would soon be easy to target individuals using facial recognition or, say, everyone wearing a cross, a yarmulke, or any other religious or political symbol.

Since any meaningful treaty is unlikely in the current geopolitical environment, we must prepare for a world that probably will contain such weapons. But the Western defense establishment increasingly looks like the typical “legacy” company that has been caught off guard by technological disruption. In markets, legacy resistance can be costly, but the costs are purely monetary. In warfare, they can and will be deadly.

Ukraine’s domestically developed short-range Sapsan ballistic missile has successfully completed combat testing and is in the process of serial production, Ukrainian media reported on June 13.

The missile, with a payload of 480 kg, completed testing in May after successfully striking a Russian military target at a range of nearly 300 km, Valentyn Badrak, head of the an independent Ukrainian think Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies told Liga.net.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry reportedly dedicated a department to formulate and test the missile.

There is no reported timeline as to when the missiles can be seen in regular use on the battlefield.

Domestically produced long-range weapons are of key importance to Ukraine's defense strategy, as Western partners have been slow in delivering adequate weaponry amid increasing Russian attacks and offensives.

The news comes as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a congressional hearing on June 10 that the United States will reduce funding allocated for military assistance to Ukraine in its upcoming defense budget

In November 2024, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine has produced its first 100 missiles.

Since then, Ukraine has continued to increase domestic weapon production. Zelensky said on April 16 that over 40% of the weapons used at the front line are now produced in Ukraine, including over 95% of drones used at front line.

Zelensky also previously revealed that Ukraine had developed another domestic-made weapon, a missile-drone Palianytsia.

As Ukraine attempt to increase its defense production, Russia has continued to unleash large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities, regularly launching hundreds of drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) shared with the Kyiv Independent that Russia's production of ballistic missiles has increased by at least 66% over the past year.

Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said in late 2024 that Ukraine also resumed and scaled up serial production of Neptune cruise missiles, modifying them to have a greater range.

Kyiv has received a number of long-range missiles from partners, such as U.S.-made ATACMS, British Storm Shadow, or French SCALP/T. Despite Ukrainian requests, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on June 12 that Berlin has no plans to provide Taurus long-range missiles to Kyiv.

Germany to supply new Iris-T air defense systems to Ukraine, rules out Taurus missiles

Germany will deliver new IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine under a three-year supply plan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a joint press conference with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who said Berlin has no plans to provide Taurus long-range missiles.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Ukraine is quietly building a new class of weapons — drone-powered cruise missiles that are small, cheap, and deadly. Ukrainian arms expert Bohdan Dolintse told ArmyInform that these new systems blend drone and missile technologies into a hybrid “drone-missile” category.

The development comes in the wake of Operation Web, widely seen as a watershed in modern warfare, where Ukraine used synchronized drone swarms to destroy high-value Russian assets, reshaping global perceptions of non-nuclear deterrence.

Now, Kyiv is scaling up. If serial production is launched, Dolintse says, Ukraine could manufacture hundreds of these precision-guided munitions monthly.

Though still in development or limited deployment, their battlefield potential is vast — from striking air defense and radar sites to disabling critical logistics nodes deep behind enemy lines.

“This is a scalpel — a precise, mobile solution to hit vulnerable yet decisive targets,” Dolintse emphasizes.

Highly modular, these missiles can be launched from aircraft, drones, or ground platforms. Instead of a single $10 million missile, Ukraine envisions waves of compact, lethal munitions that can shift the balance of power in the skies — and the future of warfare itself.