© Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
© Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
Chinese companies directly supplied at least €55 million worth of parts and materials to sanctioned Russian firms in 2023–2024. During this period, Moscow was actively building a large-scale logistics infrastructure for its drone program, The Telegraph reports.
In 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat that Beijing can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine. In this case, according to him, the US would turn its full attention to China.
Almost a quarter of the supplies, worth €12.5 million, went to companies involved in producing Iranian Shahed kamikaze drones in a Russian special economic zone in the city of Alabuga.
Among the goods exported from China were: aircraft engines, microchips, metal alloys, fiberglass, optics, and carbon fibers – all critical components for drone production.
Beijing publicly claims neutrality in the war, but the supply of drone parts reveals deep military cooperation with Moscow. On the battlefield, this is confirmed by the fact that Ukrainian troops regularly find Chinese components in downed Russian equipment.
“One has a very important interest in the survival of the other; this is not going to change. It’s a simple, geographic fact,” said Andrea Ghiselli, an expert on China’s foreign policy.
At the same time, unlike North Korea, China avoids direct participation in the war. Instead, it allows its companies to export dual-use goods. This has led to record trade volumes between the two countries – €246 billion in 2024.
In just three months of 2023, the Chinese company Ningbo Peak Cloud Import and Export supplied Russia with aircraft engines worth €3.5 million for the Ural Civil Aviation Plant, which is under sanctions.
In total, The Telegraph identified 97 Chinese suppliers. At least five Russian firms, including the Ural Civil Aviation Plant, PT Electronic, and Radioline, directly use Chinese components in drone production.
As a result, in just the first half of 2024, Russia produced more than 2,000 “Harpy” drones, almost matching the total output of the entire previous year.
The company Mile Hao Xiang Technology also supplied engines for the “Gerbera” drone worth more than €1.5 million in 2022–2023, including through intermediaries. The main importers were Russian companies Sequoia JSC and Unikom LLC.
The real volume of supplies may be much higher than official statistics show.
A drone attack on Russian regions damaged a railway station in the Rostov Oblast, located close to the border with Ukraine, and caused significant disruptions to rail traffic, with 26 passenger trains experiencing delays.
The overnight strike hit the Kuteynikovo railway station in the Chertkovsky district, according to acting governor of the Rostov region Yuriy Slyusar. The attack damaged the station’s contact network and left an unexploded ordnance on the building’s roof, prompting the evacuation of all passengers and staff.
“No people were injured. The building is now cordoned off. Sappers have been called,” Slyusar stated, however, this information is not independently verified.
He added that station personnel are assisting affected passengers while trains continue operating with delays.
Russian Railways confirmed that all delayed trains are proceeding along their scheduled routes despite the disruptions. The company reported the maximum delay reached 4 hours and 15 minutes as of 6:00 a.m. Moscow time.
The incident occurred as Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted 105 Ukrainian drones overnight, with 25 allegedly shot down over the Rostov Oblast specifically. Ukrainian officials have not issued any statements regarding these reported operations.
Meanwhile, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with a massive coordinated assault on the night of 3 September, launching 526 missiles and drones across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense systems successfully intercepted 451 of the incoming targets.
The attack caused widespread damage across the country. Four railway workers were injured in central Kirovohrad Oblast when strikes targeted rail infrastructure, while western regions including Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Ivano-Frankivsk experienced fires and structural damage from drone attacks.
© Florence Lo/Reuters
Russia is turning the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant into a nuclear weapon. Any attempt by Moscow to impose new forms of control over the facility constitutes a direct escalation of nuclear security threats for both Ukraine and Europe, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine has warned.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the largest in Europe, has been occupied since 2022. It has enough capacity to cover the annual electricity needs of countries like Ireland, Slovakia, or Finland.
On 2 September in Beijing, during a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that “under favorable circumstances, Russia, the US, and Ukraine could cooperate at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.”
Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy stresses that Russia seized the civilian nuclear facility by force and continues to block legitimate Ukrainian control.
“Russia attacked with heavy military equipment and occupied Ukraine’s civilian nuclear facility, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant,” it claims.
The ministry emphasizes that the plant is operating under an extraordinary threat scenario, unanticipated by design standards or international safety frameworks.
Since the occupation began, Russia has caused “systemic, critically dangerous deformations” at the site.
This includes the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, which eliminated the primary water source for cooling reactors, and nine full disconnections from Ukraine’s power grid.
“These are direct preconditions for a nuclear accident,” the ministry warns.
Kyiv views Putin’s remarks on new maintenance models at ZNPP as an attempt to turn the plant into a military tool.
“Ukraine calls on the international community to provide a clear assessment of these statements and actions, given their potential impact on the security of the entire European continent,” the ministry stressed.
Ukraine will raise the issue at the September session of the International Atomic Energy Agency General Conference (IAEA) and urge global condemnation of Russia’s actions.
On 31 August, IAEA Director Rafael Grossi said that Russia did not allow the organization’s inspectors to access the new dam that the occupiers built near the plant, according to Sky News.
“Our access to this dam is essential to assess the cooling water situation which is crucial given the fragile nuclear safety situation at the ZNPP,” he said.
He added that the problem is further complicated by the fact that the ZNPP currently relies on a single external power line to supply electricity to the plant’s safety systems, while the plant itself is not producing power.
Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office and intelligence agencies have issued a warning: Russia is attempting to recruit citizens via social media for espionage and sabotage. These so-called “single-use agents” are lured into committing crimes on behalf of foreign intelligence services.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called Russian President Vladimir Putin “perhaps the most serious war criminal of our time.” Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that geographical distance provides no security guarantee for Europe against Russian threats, citing missile technology that can reach European capitals within minutes.
According to German intelligence, malicious actors initiate casual conversations on social networks, assess the user’s political stance, and later offer money for criminal acts — such as property damage.
“Anyone who agrees becomes an ‘agent’ of another state… Behind these recruitment attempts may stand foreign intelligence services. Their goal is to destabilize Germany using people within the country,” the agencies cautioned.
Authorities stress that Russian intelligence is particularly interested in military bases and sites where Ukrainian soldiers are being trained.
“Perpetrators hope to gain strategic advantages by spying on such facilities or disrupting their operations… Successful sabotage could severely damage military structures and undermine trust in the state,” the statement reads.
This represents a classic case of hybrid warfare, where an enemy seeks to weaken its opponent without direct confrontation.
German citizens are urged not to fall for such recruitment attempts and to remember the consequences. “Anti-constitutional sabotage” in Germany carries a penalty of up to five years in prison, while “espionage activities” can result in up to ten years.
If crimes are proven to be carried out in the interests of a foreign intelligence service, the punishment is even harsher.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that geographical distance provides no security guarantee against Russian threats, citing missile technology that can reach European capitals within minutes.
“We are all very close, particularly in the context of the latest Russian missile technologies. For example, the difference now between Lithuania and Luxembourg, The Hague or Madrid is five to ten minutes – that’s how long it takes for a missile to reach these parts of Europe,” Rutte said during a joint press conference in Luxembourg with Prime Minister Luc Frieden and Defense Minister Yuriko Backes, according to Ukrinform.
The NATO chief emphasized that member states should abandon any sense of safety based on distance from Russia. “We are all under direct threat from the Russians. We are all now on the eastern flank, regardless of whether we live in London or Tallinn – there is no longer any difference,” he added.
Rutte’s comments came as he confirmed US commitment to NATO interests and Washington’s recognition of “the existence of a long-term Russian threat to the entire Alliance, to the entire Euro-Atlantic.”
The Secretary General described deep American understanding of interconnected security concerns. “They deeply understand, and I feel this from all my conversations in Washington, that safe United States needs a safe Atlantic, safe Europe and safe Arctic, because otherwise the United States itself, even the mainland, will be under threat,” he said.
Rutte also addressed the incident involving European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s aircraft, which experienced navigation problems due to suspected Russian interference. The NATO chief stressed that the Alliance takes this “very seriously” and is “strengthening the response to hybrid and cyber threats.”
Financial Times and Reuters reported that on 31 August, the aircraft carrying von der Leyen to the Bulgarian city of Plovdiv lost electronic navigation systems while approaching the city airport. According to unnamed officials, the GPS signal in the entire airport zone was disabled, which was interpreted as a Russian interference operation.
Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden announced his country’s intention to join NATO’s PURL initiative (Priority Ukraine Requirements List) to purchase weapons in the US and transfer them to Ukraine, Ukrinform reported.
Western sanctions against Russia are working and are already hitting the aggressor’s economy hard, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, which cited declines in key sectors. At the same time, the Kremlin is trying to offset its losses by looting temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands.
Business activity in Russia continues to fall. The manufacturing PMI, calculated by S&P Global, dropped to 48.7 in August out of 100 points, marking the third consecutive month in contraction territory.
Sunflower oil production in Russia also fell by 11% year-on-year. The coal sector is even worse off: 23 enterprises have halted operations due to the crisis, while 129 mines and open-pit sites, responsible for up to 85% of the country’s coal output, are seeking government support.
Despite the crisis, Russia is trying to keep its economy afloat by plundering Ukrainian lands. New images from temporarily occupied Mariupol have shown how Russian forces are loading ships with stolen grain and coal.
“Mariupol port. Two ships are being loaded at the same time… We expect the coal ship to head to the port of Temryuk for export clearance to Algeria, and the bulk carrier with grain to go to Egypt. Looting has predictably resumed,” reported Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of Occupation.
According to the Center for National Resistance, Russia has turned stolen Ukrainian grain into a global business. Wheat that Moscow claims as “Russian” is purchased by 70 countries, including Egypt, Türkiye, and Iran.
© Pool photo by Kevin Frayer
© Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
© Pool photo by Suo Takekuma
Russia has been preparing for war with Ukraine since 2007. Since then, Russia’s largest tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, has been accumulating hundreds of units of foreign high-tech machinery to support Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence or HUR reports.
HUR has published new data in the “Tools of War” section of the War&Sanctions portal on over 260 machine tools, CNC processing centers, and other foreign-made equipment operating within the Russian military-industrial complex.
This portal documents entities and companies helping Russia wage the war against Ukraine.
According to Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence chief, most of these purchases occurred during the rearmament of Russia’s defense industry ahead of the all-out war.
This equipment requires regular maintenance, repairs, and software updates. Manufacturers can restrict the supply of spare parts, technical fluids, and CNC software, directly impacting the operation of Russia’s military machinery.
In 2024, Uralvagonzavod launched a new tank engine production line equipped with advanced CNC machinery from leading European manufacturers. While deliveries via third countries continue, they have become slower, more complicated, and more expensive due to sanctions.
Effectively limiting Russian aggression requires coordinated diplomatic efforts, investigation of violations, and blocking of circumvention schemes.
The Russian intelligence has assassination lists, which includes Ukrainian prominent politicians, officials, and public figures. Former Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, Andrii Parubiy, who was killed in Lviv by a Russian agent, was in one of them even before the war, says deputy Iryna Herashchenko from his European Solidarity party, Radio NV reports.
Parubiy, 52, maintained a consistently anti-Russian stance throughout his career. He co-founded the Social-National Party of Ukraine in 1991, when Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union, which declared in its early program that it “considers the Russian state the cause of all troubles in Ukraine.”
The politician played pivotal roles in Ukraine’s two major democratic upheavals. During the 2004 Orange Revolution, he served as commandant of the Ukrainian House, a key protest site. Nearly a decade later, Parubiy became the de facto leader of the Euromaidan demonstrations in 2013 and 2014, aimed at fighting for Ukraine’s future int he EU and away from Russian influence,
Ukraine investigates Russian link to assassination of politician who opposed Kremlin for 30 years
“From the very first second, it was clear that Moscow was behind this. Whoever pulled the trigger, Moscow was controlling it,” says Herashchenko.
The first attempt on Parubiy’s life occurred in December 2014, when a grenade was thrown near the Kyiv hotel. In 2022, the Russians added him to a “hit list” targeting dozens of Ukrainian politicians.
Herashchenko explained that Russian intelligence tried to recruit a suspect via Telegram, offering the body of Parubiy’s missing son as leverage, exploiting his emotional vulnerability.
“The person was easy prey for the FSB to execute this absolutely hellish plan,” she noted.
The European Solidarity faction is pushing for legislation to de-anonymize Telegram in Ukraine to prevent such crimes in the future.
Herashchenko also recalled threats during the Minsk negotiations, when Moscow-aligned actors warned Ukrainian participants.
“Do you think we don’t know where you live? Your house will be burned by the families of prisoners of war,” she repeats Russian threats to Ukrainian officials.
Russia breached the Minsk agreements, which focused on reaching peace in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, and started the all-out war in 2022.
Herashchenko emphasizes that such Russian tactics continue today, underscoring the ongoing dangers faced by Ukrainian politicians.
© Mindaugas Kulbis/Associated Press
© Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik
© Eric Lee for The New York Times
The Russian private military company Wagner is experiencing serious setbacks in Mali: around two thousand fighters failed to improve security or control resources as they did in the Central African Republic. Instead of fighting jihadists, the mercenaries clashed with the Malian army, which only increased violence, reports the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
After the 2021 coup, power in Mali was seized by a junta led by Assimi Goïta, who hoped for effective cooperation with Russian mercenaries. Instead, the JNIM network (Al-Qaeda in the Sahel) continues to strengthen its position in the region, and civilian casualties rose from 736 per year to over 3,000 in 2022–2024. Notably, 80% of deaths were caused not by jihadists but by the local army and Wagner forces.
Relations between Russian mercenaries and Malian forces sharply deteriorated: reports show disobedience to orders, equipment theft, and acts of racism. In August, repression targeted dozens of officers who disagreed with Wagner methods. Civilians subjected to terror refuse to cooperate with the mercenaries.
Unlike in Sudan and the CAR, Russia did not gain access to mineral resources, including gold mines. Goïta rejected Moscow’s demands and is seeking alternative partners for security and resource extraction.
A forest fire that burned for four days near Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported Black Sea residence has been extinguished, according to Krasnodar Oblast Governor Veniamin Kondratyev. The blaze, which spread to 41.5 hectares, started after drone debris fell in the area during Ukrainian strikes on 28 August.
The fire occurred near the village of Krynitsa, located approximately 10 kilometers from Putin’s palace on Cape Idokopas, Medusa and Astra reported, citing local authorities. One fire center burned less than one kilometer from Putin’s Krynitsa winery, according to The Insider.
“Through the fall of debris, one of the oil refinery installations caught fire, and forest fires also occurred in the area of Krynitsa village,” the Krasnodar Oblast operational headquarters said.
The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian oil refineries overnight on 28 August, including the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Oblast. The forest fire began on the morning of 28 August, expanding from its initial size to 41.5 hectares by 29 August.
NASA FIRMS mapping data shows the blaze located just 850 meters from the winery facility, The Insider reported. The winery gained attention in a 2021 Anti-Corruption Foundation investigation, where it appeared under the name Old Provence. The FBK documentary detailed luxury purchases for the facility, including “gilded Italian toilet brushes.”
Governor Kondratyev announced on August 31 that the forest fires in Gelendzhik had been extinguished. More than 500 people, more than 100 units of equipment, including BE-200 aircraft, IL-76 and 2 Mi-8 helicopters were involved in extinguishing, he said.
Russian media outlet Important Stories reported that the fire center may have been 3-4 kilometers from the presidential residence. The palace complex became widely known in January 2021 following the FBK investigation, though journalists noted that Putin has largely stopped flying to Sochi, where he previously spent much of spring and autumn.
The drone attack was part of broader Ukrainian strikes on 28 August, with Russian authorities reporting drone attacks across multiple oblasts and local residents documenting fires at two oil refineries and a railway junction
Russia’s oil cash machine is breaking down. Rosneft just posted a catastrophic 68% profit collapse, with free cash flow plunging 75%. This is the clearest sign yet that Western sanctions combined with Ukrainian strikes are systematically dismantling the Kremlin’s war funding.
The numbers are brutal: net income crashed from 773 billion rubles ($9.68 billion) to just 245 billion ($3.07 billion) in the first half of 2025, while revenue fell 18% despite steady production.
Most telling?
Free cash flow collapsed to just 173 billion rubles ($2.17 billion)—a 75% drop that’s catastrophic for a company that paid out $6.78 billion in dividends and needs billions more for Arctic projects and war funding.
Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin’s complaints tell the whole story. He blamed “tighter EU and US sanction restrictions” for forcing steeper discounts on Russian crude, while a stronger ruble crushed export earnings.
Translation: the Western financial squeeze is working exactly as designed.
Even more revealing, Sechin is now publicly griping about the OPEC+ strategy (the cartel of 22 major oil producers, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, that coordinates global production), showing Russia can no longer influence global oil policy from a position of strength.
The man once skeptical of OPEC cooperation is now begging the cartel to prop up prices.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes are systematically crippling Russian refining capacity. Depending on sources, up to 17% of Russia’s refining capacity is offline, with some regions introducing fuel rationing and wholesale gasoline prices up 45% despite falling global crude prices.
For Western policymakers, Rosneft’s collapse validates the slow-squeeze approach.
Russia maintains production but struggles with profitability—exactly what sanctions architects intended.
The company still managed to raise capital spending 10% to 769 billion rubles ($9.63 billion), focusing on remote Arctic projects like Vostok Oil that won’t deliver volumes for years. But it’s paying 2024 dividends of 542 billion rubles ($6.78 billion)—more than triple this year’s actual cash generation.
That math doesn’t work long-term.
Two metrics matter most: Russian crude discounts to Brent prices and USD/RUB exchange rates. Small moves in either can swing Russia’s oil revenues by billions.
Rosneft now budgets conservatively at $45/barrel oil—signaling Moscow expects prices and sanctions pressure to persist. Combined with Ukrainian infrastructure strikes and Western financial restrictions, Russia’s oil empire faces its toughest test since the Soviet collapse.
The takeaway for global energy markets: economic warfare is working—slowly and systematically.
© Oksana Parafeniuk for The New York Times
© Marina Moiseyenko/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Estonia handed over to the United States an Estonian citizen accused of illegally supplying strategic goods to Russian defense enterprises and government agencies, according to ERR.
Estonian police and border service transferred Estonian citizen Andrey Shevlyakov to the US on 28 August 2025, who faces charges of illegally transporting strategic goods from the US to Russia using complex supply chains and networks of shell companies.
The US has charged Shevlyakov with 18 counts related to acquiring and supplying US electronics to Russia in violation of sanctions. The charges stem from his alleged role in helping Russian government and military entities procure American-made electronics through deceptive practices.
Shevlyakov was added to the Entity List in 2012, after the US government identified him as a procurement agent charged with pursuing US technology for Russian government and military end users. The designation prohibited him from exporting any goods from the US without proper licensing.
Support our media in wartime your help fuels every storyAccording to the report, Shevlyakov was detained in March 2023 in a joint operation by the FBI and Estonia’s Constitutional Protection Service. He remained under electronic surveillance from May 2024 until his extradition. Legal proceedings against Shevlyakov are ongoing in the United States.
Authorities allege Shevlyakov used false names and a web of front companies to evade Entity List restrictions, misleading suppliers and circumventing federal Department of Commerce restrictions and US export controls. The scheme allegedly involved travel between Russia, Estonia and Finland to make deliveries.
When apprehended in Estonia, authorities found inbound shipments that included about 130 kilograms of radio equipment, demonstrating the scale of the alleged operation.
The extradition represents part of Estonia’s broader security efforts. In late May, Estonia expelled and transferred to Ukrainian authorities a Ukrainian citizen who maintained contacts with the Russian FSB. In July, Estonian internal security services expelled a Russian citizen who potentially posed a security threat to the country.
© Eric Lee/The New York Times
Two weeks are ticking down. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reminded that US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a trilateral meeting is ending this Monday, on 1 September.
During his Washington visit on 19 August, Trump said his administration was ready to organize talks between Zelenskyy and Putin to reach an agreement on ending the war.
“At that time, the president said, ‘We will be ready in a couple of weeks.’ That means two to three weeks from our conversation. I want to remind that two weeks are up on Monday,” Zelenskyy emphasized.
Meanwhile, Putin refuses to engage in negotiations. According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, in this case Russia’s war against Ukraine could continue for “many months.”
Merz: Ukraine war could last “many months” as Putin blocks two-week summit plan
There is no evidence that Moscow seeks peace. Despite talks of negotiations, Russia continues massive attacks on Ukraine. In the latest strike on Kyiv, all types of weapons were used: Shahed drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. A total of 629 targets targeted the Ukrainian capital. The strike lasted nine hours and killed 25 people, including four children.
Despite the warm Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, Russia’s demands regarding Ukraine have not changed. Today, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova outlined what Russia calls “peace conditions”:
Moscow supposedly offers “security guarantees” only after these conditions are met. In reality, these demands are mutually exclusive and would mean the elimination of an independent Ukraine.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans for secondary sanctions targeting companies from third countries that support Russia’s war effort, as European leaders grow impatient with the stalled peace negotiations.
The initiative emerged from a meeting of German and French cabinet members on 29 August, according to Bloomberg. Both leaders called for measures to undermine Russia’s ability to finance its military operations through oil sales.
“We will continue to exert pressure for additional sanctions to be imposed by ourselves — and we are prepared to do so — but also by the US, to force Russia to return to the negotiating table,” Macron said at a joint press conference with Merz at Fort du Cap Brun near Toulon.
The timing reflects mounting frustration with President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the war. Trump’s latest two-week deadline for progress is close to expiring with little visible advancement toward a peace deal. Instead, the Kremlin launched one of its heaviest drone and missile assaults of the year this week, hitting apartment buildings and killing at least four children.
Merz specifically referenced potential US tariffs as a model for action. “In America, right now they’re discussing further tariffs,” he said. “I would welcome it very much if the American government could make a decision on enforcing those on other nations whose purchases of oil and gas finance a large part of Russia’s war economy.”
The Franco-German statement outlined plans to “further extend and develop effective and robust sanctions” through cooperation within the European Union and with Group of Seven partners. The stated goal is to “exert maximum pressure on Russia.”
The EU has already begun preparing secondary sanctions aimed at Russia’s energy sector. These measures target third countries that help the Kremlin circumvent existing penalties, with additional steps planned for Russia’s oil, gas, and financial sectors.
“We are working on the next package, there are several options on the table,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said. “Of course, what will hurt them the most is any sanctions on energy and secondary sanctions.”
The EU adopted an anti-circumvention tool in 2023 that prohibits exports, supply, or transfers of certain goods to third countries considered to aid sanctions evasion. However, the bloc has not yet deployed this instrument.
The EU has avoided secondary sanctions, particularly given recent criticism from the Trump administration about such policies. The current push suggests European leaders believe they have reached the limits of direct sanctions against Russia.
Merz has become increasingly vocal about the lack of diplomatic progress. The German leader said on 28 Augusthe no longer expects a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, despite Trump’s previous suggestions that such talks were possible.
Beyond sanctions, France and Germany agreed to provide Ukraine with “credible security guarantees” that would allow the country to maintain a military “without any limitations” to deter Russia. They also committed to closer defense cooperation and standardizing military equipment between their nations.
The two countries plan to discuss including France’s nuclear weapons in Europe’s overall security architecture, though they postponed a final decision on the troubled FCAS fighter-jet project until year-end.
Kallas indicated broad support among EU defense ministers for expanding the mandate of EU training missions after a ceasefire, allowing training to occur inside Ukraine rather than just outside its borders.
Zelenskyy said he and European leaders will “connect” with Trump next week to discuss security guarantees during meetings where he seeks legally binding commitments from allies as part of peace negotiations.
Macron and Merz plan separate calls with Trump over the weekend, according to Bloomberg.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday that Western security guarantee proposals would turn Ukraine into a “strategic provocateur” on Russia’s borders, signaling Moscow’s rejection of multilateral efforts to protect Kyiv from future aggression, according to Reuters.
Russia’s response comes as Ukraine prepares to formalize its security guarantee framework next week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Thursday following discussions with European partners. Ukrainian officials consider robust security guarantees essential to prevent Moscow from exploiting any future ceasefire to regroup militarily before launching new offensives.
Zakharova outlined Moscow’s position that “security guarantees must be based on reaching a common understanding that takes into account Russia’s security interests,” she told reporters Friday during a news briefing in Moscow.
The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman dismissed current Western proposals as “one-sided and clearly designed to contain Russia.”
She warned that such arrangements would assign “Kyiv the role of a strategic provocateur on Russia’s borders, increasing the risk of the [NATO] alliance becoming involved in an armed conflict with our country.”
Zakharova’s statement that security guarantees “must take into account Russia’s security interests” effectively demands Moscow have veto power over Ukrainian defense arrangements – precisely what Ukraine and its allies have rejected in previous negotiations.
Zakharova’s language about “strategic provocateurs” echoes familiar Russian talking points used to justify the 2022 invasion. Moscow has consistently opposed any security arrangements that would constrain its ability to attack Ukraine again.
The rejection seems to contradict recent signals from Russia’s chief negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, who indicated in April that “some security guarantees in some form may be acceptable.” Friday’s statement suggests Moscow’s position has hardened as Western proposals gained substance.
Ukraine’s European allies have been working to develop security guarantees that would be more robust than the failed 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte promised last week there would be “no repeat of the Budapest Memorandum,” outlining dual-layer protections including military strengthening and deterrence guarantees.
Separately, Ukraine has been discussing a proposed $90 billion US weapons package that could fund 4.5 years of military support, while military chiefs from over 30 countries have been meeting in Paris to coordinate potential peacekeeping arrangements.
Ukraine plans to complete its security guarantee framework by early next week. Moscow’s rejection suggests the Kremlin will continue opposing Western efforts to establish credible deterrence mechanisms.
A secret document has exposed Hungary as the Kremlin’s “Trojan horse” inside the EU, say InformNapalm investigators. They have obtained a letter revealing the so-called “Ansat” project, a scheme discussed at the level of the Hungarian government with Russia’s state-owned Helicopters of Russia.
The plan was to use Hungary as a platform for legalizing and assembling Russian military equipment, which would then be exported under a “European” brand.
“While most EU countries stand with Ukraine and comply with sanctions, Budapest has become a gateway for Moscow to bypass restrictions and advance its military-industrial interests,” says InformPalm.
The document confirms that:
The evidence shows that even after sanctions were imposed, the Kremlin actively built channels inside the EU to circumvent them. Hungary turned out to be one of its links, willing to shield Russia’s defense projects.
“Every time Orbán blocks EU aid to Ukraine or vetoes NATO decisions, remember: this is not just politics but direct collusion with Russia’s defense industry,” InformNapalm stresses.
Earlier, Hungary banned a top Ukrainian drone unit commander from entering the country and the Schengen zone after strikes on the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Hungarian officials called the pipeline vital for their country’s as Hungary is still receiving Russian oil and financing Moscow’s war machine against Ukraine, despite the fourth year of Russia’s all-out war.
Hungary bans Ukrainian commander over Russian pipeline hit — latest sign of Budapest acting as Kremlin’s proxy in EU
© Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times
© Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
A forest fire reportedly sparked by drone debris has spread to 41.5 hectares near the village of Krynitsa in Russia’s Krasnodar Oblast, with one fire center burning less than one kilometer from a winery linked to Vladimir Putin.
Local authorities reported the blaze on the morning of 28 August after Ukrainian drone fragments fell in the area, according to Gelendzhik mayor and the regional emergency ministry. The fire has expanded from its initial size overnight, reaching 41.5 hectares by 29 August morning.
“More than 330 people are fighting the fire, about 80 units of equipment are working, as well as a helicopter and aircraft of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations,” Krasnodar Oblast governor Veniamin Kondratiev said.
The village of Krynitsa sits just 10 kilometers from Putin’s palace on Cape Idokopas, Agency reported. Russian media Important Stories reported that the fire center may be 3-4 kilometers from the presidential residence.
The Insider said that another fire source burns less than one kilometer from Putin’s “Krynitsa” winery. NASA FIRMS mapping data shows this blaze located just 850 meters from the winery facility.
The winery gained attention in a 2021 investigation by the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), where it appeared under the name “Old Provence.” The film detailed luxury purchases for the facility, including “gilded Italian toilet brushes,” according to the FBK documentary about Putin’s palace.
The drone attack occurred as part of broader Ukrainian strikes on 28 August. Russian authorities reported drone attacks across multiple oblasts, with local residents documenting fires at two oil refineries and a railway junction.
The Gelendzhik area has strategic significance due to its proximity to Putin’s reported Black Sea residence, which has been the subject of extensive investigative reporting and opposition scrutiny.
Ukraine is escalating its attacks on Russia’s oil refineries, hitting 10 of them in recent days and throttling the Russian oil industry’s refining by more than a million barrels per day. That’s 14% of output.
But refineries can be repaired. And Russia’s sprawling oil sector has excess capacity that could help it compensate for damage from Ukrainian raids. “Russia has a lot of these inactive refineries, and Russia is able to switch to some of them if needed,” Finnish analyst Joni Askola noted.
To make lasting dent in Russia’s most important industry, Ukraine needs to strike more often with more damaging weapons. At present, most oil raids and other deep strikes are carried out by slow, propeller-driven drones ranging fewer than 1,000 km with warheads weighing just 50 kg or so.
The drones that Ukraine has been using are just not enough because they’re quite easy to shoot down and also their warheads are quite small, as well,” Askola pointed out. It’s crucial for Ukraine to get more and better munitions “with enough range, but with a bit bigger warheads.”
The harder-hitting munitions are coming. Ukrainian companies have developed at least two new cruise missiles—the 6,000-kg Flamingo and the approximately 1,000-kg Long Neptune—that could extend the reach and effect of the oil raids. The Americans are helping, too, with a mysterious new cruise missile called the Extended Range Attack Munition.
The enormous Flamingo, traveling as far as 3,000 km with a 1,000-kg warhead, would hit the hardest and farthest targets. Right now, Ukrainian firm Fire Point is building one Flamingo a day. It aims to ramp up production to seven missiles a day by October.
The Long Neptune, ranging 1,000 km with a 150-kg warhead, is for closer and less durable targets. It’s unclear how many of the missile the Luch Design Bureau can build.
Support our media in wartime your help fuels every story
The American ERAM is the smallest of the bunch. It weighs just 1,100 kg and ranges at least 400 km. But in the short term, it may also be the most numerous. The administration of the former US President. Joe Biden launched the ERAM program in 2024, and the administration of the current US President. Donald Trump recently gave final approval for Ukraine to receive 3,350 of the small missiles. Deliveries should start in the coming weeks.
We don’t know much about the ERAM except that, in contrast to the ground-launched Flamingo and Long Neptune, the American munition is air-launched. The Ukrainian air force’s ex-Soviet Sukhoi and MiG jets, ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16s, and ex-French Dassault Mirage 2000s are all compatible with an array of precision munitions.
It’s possible the ERAM is broadly similar to the Powered Joint Direct Attack Munition developed by US defense giant Boeing. The PJDAM takes a standard satellite-guided bomb and adds pop-out wings and a tiny Kratos-TDI-J85 turbojet engine. At the low cost of just $30,000, a 220-kg PJDAM ranges as far as 500 km. Most of the PJDAM’s weight is explosive fill, making it much more damaging than Ukraine’s current deep-strike drones.
It would make sense for the US to provide Ukraine with an ERAM based on the PJDAM, as Ukraine already possesses freefalling JDAM bombs and gliding JDAMs with pop-out wings. Adding a small engine to the same basic munition shouldn’t significantly change its compatibility. Any Ukrainian jets that can carry JDAMs should also be able to carry ERAMs.
To strike Russian refineries with the same intensity that Russia strikes Ukrainian cities, Ukrainian forces need to launch hundreds of munitions several times a week. They can’t all be Flamingos and Long Neptunes, which might cost hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece. Nor should they all be the cheaper, but lighter, attack drones that are most common today.
Cheap but powerful, the ERAM is the middleweight missile Ukraine needs to intensify attacks now. The wrinkle is that the US Defense Department under Trump has reportedly barred Ukraine from striking Russia with certain American-made long-range munitions, extending similar bans put in place by Biden.
It’s unclear whether that policy would also ban deep strikes with ERAMs.
Russia’s Ust-Luga oil export terminal will operate at around 350,000 barrels per day in September, representing approximately half its usual capacity, following damage to pipeline infrastructure from Ukrainian drone attacks, two industry sources told Reuters.
The capacity reduction stems from strikes on the Unecha pumping station in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast earlier in August. “Unecha is a key transit point for crude heading to Ust-Luga,” Reuters reported, citing industry sources who confirmed that repair efforts were underway with no clear timeline for full restoration.
The attacks have created ripple effects across Russia’s energy export network. The strikes also disrupted flows through the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Belarus, Slovakia and Hungary. Slovakia announced on 28 August that “initial supplies via the pipeline resumed in test mode.”
To compensate for the reduced Ust-Luga capacity, “oil volumes will be diverted to Russia’s Primorsk and Novorossiisk ports,” according to the sources, who suggested this redirection “may help to limit export losses.”
The sources did not specify which pipeline sustained damage, and Russian authorities have remained silent on the extent of the damage or its impact on export schedules. Transneft, Russia’s pipeline monopoly that operates both the pipelines and the oil terminal, declined to comment when contacted by Reuters.
According to Ukrainian military sources cited in the report, Ukrainian drones have targeted at least four major facilities on Russian territory by 23 August. The strikes included the Lukoil Volgograd refinery on 14 August, with reports indicating operations ceased. On 18 August, drones hit the Druzhba oil pumping station in Nikolsky, Tambov Oblast, with Russians claiming restoration within 48 hours, though confirmation of restart remains absent.
The most significant ongoing damage appears at the Novoshakhtinsky refinery in Rostov Oblast, struck on 20 August. The fire there “has been burning for more than 60 hours and as of 23 August continues to increase in area,” according to Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Commander Robert Magyar Brovdi.
Russian forces deployed rocket-propelled Shahed drones during the overnight attack on Kyiv on 28 August, according to Yurii Ihnat, head of the Communications Department of the Ukrainian Air Force Command.
These modified drones exhibit flight parameters resembling cruise missiles, Ihnat told Hromadske.
The Ukrainian Air Force first documented these jet-powered strike drones during summer operations. Ihnat explained that while cruise missiles typically reach speeds of 700 km/h, the rocket-propelled Shaheds operate at 300-500 km/h.
“They are difficult to shoot down,” the military official added.
Russia has not yet deployed these modified drones en masse, according to Ihnat.
“Previous times we recorded eight units. This time there were also some, but not many,” Ihnat said, declining to specify the exact number of rocket-powered drones launched against Kyiv during the 28 August attack.
During the latest attack on Kyiv, Russian forces employed various weapons and different drone types. Beyond conventional and rocket-propelled Shaheds, Russia deployed decoy drones, which they have also begun equipping with explosive warheads.
Russian forces launched 31 missiles and 598 drones against Ukraine during the overnight attack on 28 August. Current casualty reports indicate 18 dead and nearly 40 injured from the nighttime bombardment, including children.
The Russian strikes damaged the European Union representation building in Ukraine and the British Council office in Kyiv. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha declared the diplomatic facility attacks constitute direct violations of the Vienna Convention, emphasizing such strikes require condemnation from the EU and the international community.
Additional damage occurred to the offices of Ukrainska Pravda and Radio Svoboda media outlets, a Nova Poshta sorting depot where three people were injured, Ukrzaliznytsia’s high-speed train park, and other facilities. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces targeted a residential building in Kyiv with two missiles, destroying the structure.
© Natalie Keyssar for The New York Times
© Natalie Keyssar for The New York Times
Ukrainian drones struck several targets across Russia in the early hours of 28 August, causing fires at two oil refineries and disrupting rail traffic. Confirmed attacks hit the Kuibyshevsky refinery in the city of Samara about 1,000 km from the frontlines, the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai around 300 km behind the lines, and a locomotive depot in Petrov Val, Volgograd Oblast. A railway station in Samara Oblast was also reportedly targeted, leading to service delays.
According to Russian Telegram news channel Astra and Ukrainian Exilenova+, a drone attack caused fires at the Kuibyshevsky oil refinery in Samara in the early hours of 28 August. Both channels shared footage of the attack and the subsequent fires.
Local residents began reporting UAV flights over the city and explosions near the facility shortly after 03:00. According to both channels, initial confusion led many locals to believe the Novokuibyshevsky refinery had been hit again after an attack weeks ago.
Exilenova+ posted follow-ups referencing public speculation about the number of drones involved, writing that “the excited local crowd counted 17 drones, lost count.” The same channel later claimed, without confirmation, that both the Kuibyshevsky and Novokuibyshevsky refineries had been struck.
In response to the attack, the governor of Samara Oblast announced temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport and mobile internet outages “for citizens’ safety.” Emergency services and air defense systems were reportedly activated during the incident.
Exilenova+ also shared footage of fires at on the Afipsky oil refinery in southern Russia’s Krasnodar Krai. Russian authorities confirmed the attack, but attributed damage to “falling drone debris” that caused a fire at one of the refinery’s units in the settlement of Afipsky.
The attack affected a gas and condensate processing unit, previously targeted in earlier strikes, according to Exilenova’s geolocation of the footage. The channel geolocated and published video evidence of the fire. Emergency crews were deployed to the scene, with 21 personnel and eight vehicles extinguishing the 20-square-meter blaze. Officials stated there were no casualties.
The city of Petrov Val in Volgograd Oblast experienced a repeat drone strike, just five days after a previous attack on 23 August. Exilenova+ shared videos showing fires at the facility, claiming the attack targeted the TChE-7 locomotive depot. According to Astra, a drone impact led to a fire at one of the technical buildings of the depot in the city. Governor Bocharov stated that the fire was quickly extinguished and that there were no injuries.
Support our media in wartime your help fuels every storyIn addition to refinery and depot attacks, drones reportedly also targeted Kryazh station in Samara Oblast. Astra quoted Kuybyshev Railway as saying that drone debris damaged the contact network between Kryazh and Lipiahy stations.
The incident led to train disruptions: six long-distance and four suburban trains were delayed, with the maximum delay reaching 2 hours and 14 minutes. Three suburban trains were canceled.
Despite the widespread damage, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed its air defenses destroyed 102 Ukrainian drones overnight. According to the ministry, 22 drones were intercepted over the Black Sea, 21 each over Rostov and Samara oblasts, 18 over Krasnodar Krai, 11 over occupied Crimea, three each over Voronezh and Saratov oblasts, two over Volgograd Oblast, and one over the Sea of Azov.
As always, the Russian ministry’s claims have not been independently verified.
© Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times
Russian authorities have constructed a Pantsir air defense tower adjacent to a drone manufacturing facility in Yelabuga, according to the partisan movement ATESH, which claims the measure reflects damage from Ukrainian strikes.
ATESH agents working at the factory documented the defensive installation near the facility, the group announced via Telegram on 26 August.
The organization characterized the construction as evidence that Ukrainian drone attacks have already inflicted damage on the plant.
Ukrainian forces conducted their most recent drone strike against the Yelabuga facility on 25 August. The facility has faced multiple Ukrainian attacks throughout 2025, with documented strikes occurring in April, June, and August.
The Elabuga installation represents part of a broader pattern across Russia. The group’s agents have documented similar tower constructions in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, and other cities. These structures feature modules designed for Pantsir air defense systems and are being erected to counter Ukrainian drone operations.
ATESH maintains that these defensive measures will prove insufficient against future attacks.
“The Kremlin can build new towers and cover factories with ‘Pantsirs,’ but this won’t save them from retribution,” the group stated, adding that “for every ‘Shahed’ launched at Ukraine, a just strike will come.”
The organization has called for intelligence regarding similar defensive installations, air defense systems, or military facilities in Russia and occupied territories, offering compensation for reliable information.
In July, Russian state media broadcast aired two propaganda films showcasing Geran-2 drone production and deployment capabilities, particularly at the Yelabuga manufacturing complex, positioned over 1,300 km (807 miles) from Ukrainian territory.
Intelligence reports indicated the facility manufactures more than 5,000 Geran-2 units monthly, with 18,000 drones completed during the first six months of 2025.
The propaganda rollout followed Russia’s record-breaking single-day bombardment on July 9, when Moscow deployed 741 drones and missiles in a 24-hour period.
Russia has submitted a peace proposal regarding Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to end its war against Ukraine, according to Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy for the Middle East.
Speaking in a Fox News interview, Witkoff revealed the existence of the Russian proposal while defending Trump’s diplomatic efforts.
“The Russians have put a peace proposal on the table. It involves Donetsk. It may not be something that the Ukrainians can take,” Witkoff said.
The envoy did not specify the proposal’s details or submission date, but emphasized Trump’s role in advancing negotiations. “No one has done more than this president in narrowing the issues between these two countries and bringing the sides close to a deal,” Witkoff said.
When asked about responsibility for prolonging the war, Witkoff described both parties as challenging. “We’ve got two tough sides here. You heard the President say that he is disappointed in Russia in some respects, and he is also disappointed in the Ukrainians in some respects,” he said.
The disclosure comes after Trump announced reaching an agreement with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on territory exchange following their Alaska talks. Trump said that “President Zelenskyy has to agree” to the arrangement.
According to Bloomberg reports, Putin continues demanding Ukrainian troop withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts entirely, while offering to freeze the front lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected these demands.
Reuters previously outlined Russia’s war-ending conditions that Putin presented to Trump during their Alaska meeting on 17 August. Trump has warned of launching an “economic war” against Russia if it avoids negotiations.
Witkoff announced plans to meet with a Ukrainian delegation in New York this week as diplomatic efforts continue.
Trump reports indicate Putin wants immediate discussions on ending the war rather than merely pausing hostilities, with Trump believing this approach would be optimal.
The US continues supplying weapons to NATO allies currently providing military assistance to Ukraine, according to Trump’s statements.
On paper, Russia’s economy looks like a fortress: GDP rising, defense spending at record highs, oil billions still rolling in. No wonder many ask if sanctions have failed — or if Putin’s war economy is strong enough to sustain his war in Ukraine indefinitely. But a June 2025 report from CSIS — one of Washington’s most respected think tanks — warns that this fortress is hollow, and the cracks are already spreading.
Support our media in wartime your help fuels every storyRussia’s “growth” is fake — a wartime sugar high before the crash.
Yes, GDP fell 2.1% in 2022, then rebounded with 3.6% growth in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. But that wasn’t real recovery — it was deficit spending on weapons that get blown up in Ukraine.
Moscow poured a record 13.5 trillion rubles ($145B) — 6.3% of GDP — into its war machine in 2025. That kind of “military Keynesianism” doesn’t build prosperity; it just keeps factories busy cranking out tanks.
Now the bill is coming due:
GDP growth slowed to just 1.4% in Q1 2025, with a 1.2% contraction after adjustment.
Inflation hit 10.2% in April.
The central bank is stuck at 21% interest rates to avoid collapse.
The budget deficit is swelling to 1.7% of GDP.
This is classic stagflation: fake war-driven growth hiding a shrinking economy and soaring prices. Putin can brag today — but Russia is already sliding into crisis.
Russia is in a self-inflicted “labor famine.” Since February 2022, 1–2 million workers have vanished from its economy:
The result: 73% of businesses are understaffed, while defense plants poach workers with salaries 40,000 rubles ($500) above civilian jobs.
The cracks are already visible:
And it’s not just Russia. Western companies that rely on Russian suppliers are watching production shrink in real time — proof that the war is choking not only Russia’s economy, but global supply chains too.
Because Russian inflation is already in your wallet — you just don’t see it yet.
Russia’s inflation hit 10.2% in April 2025, forcing interest rates up to 21%. That pain doesn’t stay inside Russia. To dodge sanctions, Russian firms burn $10–30 billion a year on shady commissions, and those costs get passed into the global price of oil, metals, fertilizer, and grain — the building blocks of everything from your phone to your food.
Here’s the hidden link: disrupted supply chains and higher transport/insurance costs drive up commodity prices everywhere. Russia makes critical inputs for semiconductors, aircraft parts, and agriculture. As Russia’s costs spiral, global alternatives rise too. Their inflation becomes your higher grocery bill and gas price.
Russia’s oil revenues are collapsing in slow motion — and Putin’s war budget hangs on them more than he admits.
Oil made up 42% of the budget in 2022, but by 2024 it was down to 30% — even with high global prices. Sanctions forced Moscow to sell crude at a 15% discount, with shipping to India adding $10–15 per barrel.
Here’s the danger: Russia’s 2025 budget assumed $69.7 oil, but forecasts are already down to $56. In April 2025, Trump’s tariff threats sent Urals crude below $50. Every $10 drop = $10–15B lost revenue. If oil hit $30 again — as during COVID — Russia would lose as much money as it spends on the entire war.
Bottom line: Putin can brag about oil billions, but his lifeline is a knife-edge. One global shock, and the war chest collapses.
China is keeping Russia afloat — but that makes Moscow weaker, not stronger.
In 2024, Russia imported $115B in goods from China — 72% above pre-war levels. By 2023, 76% of battlefield-related deliveries came from China and Hong Kong. And now, 53% of all Russian imports are Chinese — meaning Beijing could cripple Russia’s war effort overnight by simply enforcing existing sanctions.
Despite talk of “yuanization,” Russia still can’t escape its need for dollars and euros. Meanwhile, China enjoys steep discounts on Russian oil, gas, and raw materials.
This isn’t partnership — it’s economic colonization. Beijing gains leverage, Moscow loses sovereignty. And for the West, the pressure point is clear: make China choose between Putin and global markets, and Russia’s lifeline snaps.
Russia’s banking system looks stable — but it’s built on quicksand.
Businesses owe $446B in loans, half to defense firms on subsidized rates of 5–6%, while everyone else pays 18–19%. At the same time, with interest rates at 21% and inflation near 9%, Russian savers get 11% real returns just by parking money in banks — deposits jumped 70% in 2024.
The entire system now depends on depositors’ trust. But here’s the trap: nearly half of government debt is floating-rate. If the central bank raises rates, debt costs explode; if it cuts, inflation spirals.
That’s the classic setup for a banking crisis — politically connected loans propped up by nervous savers. A shock — sanctions, a battlefield loss, or a ruble collapse — could spark a bank run and bring the system down in weeks.
Based on 2025 data, Russia can probably grind along for another 2–3 years under current sanctions — but only if nothing goes wrong.
What could speed up collapse:
Oil < $50/barrel: Already happened in April 2025, hitting budget revenues immediately
Stricter sanctions enforcement: Especially on China’s dual-use exports to Russia
Global recession: Trump’s tariff threats already rattled commodity markets this spring
Banking crisis: 21% interest rates keep savers in banks — until confidence cracks
Russia’s National Welfare Fund — the rainy-day reserve — dropped 24% in early 2025 to just ₽3.39T ($39B). At current burn rates, that cushion won’t last long; even the central bank has warned it could be emptied if oil collapses.
And remember: Russia is running its economy on war spending — defense outlays at 6%+ of GDP — the highest since the Cold War. That means Moscow’s “growth” depends on pouring money into weapons that get destroyed in Ukraine, not building lasting prosperity.
Bottom line: The system works — until it doesn’t. History says Russia might stagger on for 2–5 years, but unlike the USSR, today’s Russia can’t wall itself off. Global markets, sanctions, and war costs make it vulnerable to shocks that could accelerate the crash overnight.
For Ukraine and the West: the pressure is working. But it’s a test of stamina — keep it up, and Putin’s war economy will eventually break.
Russia’s collapse isn’t guaranteed — but the odds are rising. Labor shortages, runaway inflation, oil dependency, and record war spending are the same pressures that have broken other wartime economies.
Investors: steer clear of Russian commodities and watch for ripple effects in global supply chains.
Policymakers: sanctions are working, but only if pressure is steady and sustained — collapse takes years, not months.
Everyone else: Russia is more dangerous now, but less sustainable long term. The next 2–3 years will decide whether Putin’s war economy holds — or breaks.
Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets commented on Russia’s intention to withdraw from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture. He stressed that such a move demonstrates the Kremlin’s disregard for human rights and paves the way for even greater crimes against Ukrainians.
Recently, Moscow has announced its withdrawal from the European Torture Convention, which not only prohibits torture but also provides for monitoring of places of detention. Previously, this was carried out by the European Committee for the Prevention of Torture.
According to Lubinets, this decision has several dangerous consequences:
“The aggressor state shows that it does not care about human rights and no longer recognizes European norms,” the Ukrainian ombudsman stated.
Russia, which for years has carried out arbitrary detentions, torture, and violence against prisoners of war and civilians, is now officially refusing even its formal international obligations.
Ukrainian journalist abducted from his garden in 2022 returns from Russian captivity weighing less than 45 kg
Lubinets stressed that impunity only breeds new crimes and creates a threat to the global rule of law.
“Such actions by Russia create risks of widespread human rights violations, especially during armed conflicts,” he noted.
Despite Russia’s withdrawal, other international mechanisms remain. Lubinets emphasized the importance of:
“Torture is part of Russia’s state policy,” Lubinets concluded.
The European Union is developing new sanctions to increase pressure on Russia’s weak war economy, Politico reports. However, the upcoming measures will not target Russian energy sales, which continue to finance Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
European diplomats say the 19th package, expected next month, will target ships of the “shadow fleet” and companies helping Russia bypass existing sanctions.
The Russian “shadow fleet” consists of grey-market tankers that evade international sanctions. These tankers often sail with transponders turned off, without proper insurance, and conceal their identities. This fleet channels Russian oil exports to China, India, and Global South countries, helping Moscow fund its war. Shutting down this corridor, through port controls and insurance restrictions, could deal a serious blow to the Kremlin’s energy revenues.
Secondary sanctions against firms or countries doing business with Moscow could have the greatest impact, but their effectiveness will depend on US cooperation.
Experts note that Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks with US President Donald Trump in Alaska after the US imposed high tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. Next steps could include tighter restrictions on Russia-China trade. Trump hinted at possible “massive sanctions or tariffs” if Moscow does not support peace negotiations.
“We don’t expect there will be much room for any material Russian oil sanctions in the EU’s 19th sanctions package,” said ICIS analyst Ajay Parmar.
EU foreign ministers will meet at an informal summit later this week to discuss additional economic measures. While Slovakia and Hungary oppose expanding sanctions, diplomats are confident a unified stance can be achieved.
US and Russian officials discussed energy deals between the two countries during multiple rounds of talks in August, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the talks.
The deals were presented as incentives for Russia to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine and for the US to ease sanctions on Russia.
The discussions reportedly took place during US envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow on 6 August, and again briefly during the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on 15 August.
“The White House really wanted to put out a headline after the Alaska summit, announcing a big investment deal,” one of the sources said, according to Reuters.
Western sanctions have left Russia largely cut off from international investment and cooperation in the energy sector since the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Three major deals could restore Russia’s energy lifelines following years of sanctions:
On the same day as the Alaska summit, Putin signed a decree opening up the Sakhalin-1 project to foreign investment. Exxon exited Russia in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, abandoning its 30% share in the Sakhalin-1 project.
One of the sources also said that the US wants Russia to rely more on US technology, rather than Chinese, in an effort to weaken Russia-China relations.
Trump and his national security team are engaging with Russian and Ukrainian officials to end the war, a White House official told Reuters in response to questions about the deals. They declined to further discuss the deals publicly.
The 6 August meeting between Witkoff and Putin was the final round of talks before President Trump’s “deadline” for agreeing to a peace deal, for which he threatened heavier sanctions on Russia.
The 15 August meeting between the US and Russian presidents was the highest-level diplomatic forum since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The stated goal of the American side was to negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
© Agence France-Presse, via Telegram
In the aftermath of the 24 August drone strike, the Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s Samara Oblast about 1,000 km from Ukraine is no longer operational due to the destruction of its most critical equipment. Russian Telegram channel Astra, citing sources in the emergency services, reported that the facility lost the AVT-6 primary processing unit, the L-35-6 secondary unit, and the pump station — all essential for continued refinery operations.
According to Astra, five drones exploded on site on 24 August, three of which directly struck key infrastructure. Five more drones were reportedly shot down on approach. No injuries were reported, as all 240 employees had sheltered during the attack.
The refinery, owned by Rosneft, is one of Samara Oblast’s largest oil-processing enterprises, producing a wide range of petroleum products and supplying fuel to central Russian oblasts and military units. Following earlier drone strikes on 15 August, the facility had already suffered major damage and had suspended crude oil intake and processing.
The 15 August attack struck the ELOU-AVT-6 unit, designed for desalting and primary crude oil distillation, and also damaged several storage tanks.
The refinery has also been targeted multiple times this year, with incidents in February and March causing fires.
According to Reuters, Ukrainian drone strikes in August have disabled 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.
The situation has contributed to worsening fuel shortages across Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories, particularly in Crimea, Zabaykalsky Krai, Vladivostok, Buryatia, and Primorsky Krai.
© Mindaugas Kulbis/Associated Press
Tensions have flared between Moscow and its key ally, the one that has given unprecedented support in the killing of Ukrainians. During the Iran–Israel war in June 2025, the Kremlin passed information to Israel about Iran’s air defense centers, says Seyyed Mohammad Sadr, a member of Iran’s Expediency Council, Al Arabiya reports.
“This war proved the uselessness of the strategic alliance with Moscow,” Sadr claims, stressing that the Kremlin essentially failed to support Tehran during its conflict with Israel.
Even when Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Moscow on 23 June requesting air defense systems and assistance for nuclear facilities, Russia limited itself to verbal condemnation of Israel’s attacks, according to Asriran.
Support our media in wartime your help fuels every storyThe visit happened during the Russia-US negotiations over Ukraine and when US President Donald Trump’s administation regarded Moscow as potential partner, which could secure Iranian nuclear technology.
Russia emerges as potential mediator in Trump’s new Iran nuclear deal talks
In January 2025, the presidents of Russia and Iran, Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian, signed a “strategic partnership” treaty in Moscow, which the Kremlin called “groundbreaking.”
However, during the war with Israel it became clear that Moscow was not ready to actually defend its ally. Moreover, back in 2024, Israel destroyed all Russian S-300 systems in Iran, while the promised S-400s were never delivered.
Connexion