Over 60% of residents have evacuated from dangerous territories in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy Oblast amid continuous shelling of civilian infrastructure and intensified offensive operations along the border.

The evacuation pace has accelerated in recent days, with more than 400 residents leaving border communities during the week of 9-15 June alone.  Among those evacuated were 26 children, according to the head of Sumy Regional Military Administration, Oleh Hryhorov.

The scale of the evacuation encompasses 213 settlements across Sumy Oblast, with 60 communities now completely abandoned by their residents. 

Russian forces now conduct an average of 80 to 120 strikes daily against the region, Hryhorov reported in a recent interview with Suspilne Sumy. Seven civilians were killed since the beginning of June, including one child. 

The intensity of attacks created a state of near-constant danger, with air raid alerts lasting an average of 14-15 hours daily.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated that Ukrainian forces had successfully halted Russian advancement in the Sumy direction. However, he also indicated that Russia has concentrated 50,000 soldiers in the area as part of an attempt to establish what he described as a “buffer zone” within Ukrainian territory.

Current occupation data from the analytical project DeepState shows 12 settlements in Sumy region remain under Russian control as of 14 June.

The Institute for the Study of War and Ukrainian officials, however, assessed that Russia lacks sufficient manpower and resources for a major breakthrough in Sumy, with many targeted villages evacuated and of limited strategic value.

Russia’s claims of success in Ukraine mask a far grimmer military reality: minimal territorial gains exchanged for unprecedented casualties and losses, Riley McCabe of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues in an opinion piece in The Washington Post.

The author notes that Moscow shows little interest in serious diplomacy and continues to demand maximalist terms while launching new attacks. The op-ed emphasizes that despite its narrative of strength, Russia’s hand is far weaker than assumed by many in the West.

Russia’s advances yield limited territorial gains  

In contrast, McCabe writes that Russia has been using brute force to advance since early 2024, but with little to show for it. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies cited in the article shows that Moscow has seized less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since January 2024—an area smaller than Delaware. Russian forces have managed daily advances averaging only about 50 meters near Kupiansk and roughly 135 meters in parts of Donetsk Oblast, even in their most active sectors.

Ukraine’s defenses, McCabe writes, give it the edge. Russian forces run into minefields, trench systems, and artillery zones, with drones causing most combat deaths. This setup has turned the conflict into a bloody deadlock.

Scale of Russian casualties is historical

According to McCabe, these minor gains have come at an extraordinary cost. Russian fatalities in Ukraine now exceed the total number of Soviet and Russian soldiers killed in every war since World War II combined. By summer 2025, Russia is projected to surpass 1 million total military casualties. The op-ed notes that Russian equipment losses since January 2024 include roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles, and 1,900 tanks.

Russia loses one million soldiers: Moscow’s casualties reach seven figures, Ukraine says

McCabe includes comparisons showing that Russia’s death toll in Ukraine now exceeds losses in every Soviet and Russian war since World War II. The opinion piece includes visual breakdowns of fatalities from conflicts in Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria, Georgia, and others—none of which approach current Ukrainian war figures.

Putin bets on US withdrawal, not battlefield success

The opinion piece argues that Russia’s best hope lies in Western political fatigue. McCabe writes,

“Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot.”

The author warns that a loss of US support could deprive Ukraine of air defenses, munitions, and strike capabilities, and shatter morale. 

Trump again blames both Ukraine and Russia for failing to reach a peace deal