Taiwan has developed suicide drones similar to those Ukraine uses in its war against Russia to strengthen defense against potential Chinese aggression, the Financial Times reported on 27 June.

The new strike drone called Overkill has completed combat trials and certification. The drone features artificial intelligence systems and Auterion cameras – the same technologies that help Ukrainian drones destroy Russian tanks and military targets.

Development proceeds jointly with Thunder Tiger company and the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST). Auterion CEO Lorenz Meier stated these drones provide Taiwan with capabilities Ukraine has already demonstrated in real combat operations.

Overkill suicide drones are maneuverable munitions with first-person view (FPV) controlled by operators.

“The lessons learned from the war in Ukraine are definitely applicable to a potential conflict with China,” Meier said. “The drone will easily destroy a Chinese warship if it lacks air defense.”

Thunder Tiger has agreed to Auterion software licenses for 25,000 drones, with some intended for export. The government is developing a special drone procurement budget planned for submission this fall.

Taiwan seeks to reduce dependence on Chinese components by establishing closer ties with American defense industry. Drone exports represent a major opportunity, particularly in Southeast Asian countries including the Philippines, Vietnam, India, and Indonesia, where demand runs high for technology without Chinese parts.

Taiwan launched an intensive military drone development program three years ago, though production remains below planned targets. New developments like Overkill demonstrate progress and the country’s readiness to strengthen defensive capabilities amid rising regional tensions.

The island previously adopted Ukraine’s experience and tested its own naval drones. On 3 June, Ukraine’s Security Service conducted a special operation destroying the illegally constructed Kerch Bridge built by Russian occupiers. Russia acknowledged the explosion but claimed no damage occurred.

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Germany’s lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, has passed legislation suspending family reunification for migrants who hold subsidiary protection status rather than full refugee status, Reuters reported on 27 June.

The upper house, the Bundesrat, is expected to approve the bill in July, after which it will take effect.

Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said the new law is necessary because Germany’s integration capacity, particularly in education, childcare and housing construction, has reached its limits.

“Immigration must have limits, and we are reflecting that politically,” he told the Bundestag during a heated debate ahead of Friday’s vote.

Dobrindt noted that suspending family reunification will help curb illegal migration, where one family member travels to Germany in advance to later bring others. The current legal framework caps the number of visas issued to the close family of refugees under subsidiary protection to 1,000 a month. Suspending the right of family reunification would therefore lead to 12,000 fewer people immigrating to Germany each year, according to Dobrindt.

Germany currently hosts about 388,000 refugees with “subsidiary protection status”, a form of international protection granted to people who do not qualify as refugees but who still face a real risk of serious harm if returned to their home country. The majority of those holding this status are Syrians.

In April, Friedrich Merz announced his intention to reduce the number of new asylum seekers in the country to fewer than 100,000 people per year. According to the Central Register of Foreigners, Germany recorded a new record in September 2024: 3.48 million people have refugee status, asylum seeker status, or are candidates who remain in the country due to inability to deport them. This is 60,000 more than at the end of 2023 and represents the highest figure since the 1950s.

As of early 2025, Germany hosts approximately 1.18 to 1.25 million Ukrainian refugees, making it the European country with the highest number of Ukrainians who have fled the war. This figure represents nearly 28% of all Ukrainian refugees in the European Union.

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Russian banks face a credible risk of systemic crisis within 12 months as bad debt levels surge across corporate and retail lending portfolios, according to Bloomberg News reporting based on banking officials and internal documents.

Current and former banking officials described the situation as dangerous, with growing concerns about clients failing to make loan payments due to record-high interest rates. The officials spoke anonymously as they were not authorized to discuss internal sector anxieties publicly.

“We are on the verge of slipping into a recession,” Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said during a panel discussion at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week. Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina countered that the economy was experiencing “a necessary cooling,” while Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged “we’re going through a cold spell now.”

Russian President Putin responded the following day: “Some specialists, experts, point to the risks of stagnation and even recession. This, of course, should not be allowed under any circumstances.”

Banks estimate their bad debts run to trillions of rubles, according to people familiar with internal assessments. One estimate showed corporate loan portfolios decreased by 1.5 trillion rubles ($19 billion) in the first two months of 2025 before stabilizing.

Official statistics may mask the debt problem’s true scale. While public data on late payments don’t suggest serious issues, an internal note from one major bank indicates many more loans are not being repaid as planned, with borrowers deferring payments.

The banking strain could undermine Putin’s ability to sustain the Ukraine war, now in its fourth year, particularly if Western allies impose harsher financial sector sanctions. The European Union is currently discussing fresh restrictions on Russian banks.

Russia’s two-track economy shows mounting problems. The military-industrial complex benefits from massive state war spending while private-sector businesses face slowing demand, rising costs and lower export prices. Less documented is the banking sector strain after granting favorable loans to fund the Kremlin’s war effort.

The Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate to a record 21% in October before cutting it to 20% this month following complaints that punitive debt costs were choking growth and threatening company bankruptcies.

Economic growth slowed sharply from 4.5% last year to 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, according to Federal Statistics Service data.

A May central bank report warned of “vulnerabilities of the financial sector” including “credit risk and concentration risk in corporate lending” and “deteriorating loan performance” in consumer lending. Thirteen of Russia’s largest 78 companies were unable to service their debt, double the previous year’s number.

Russia’s ACRA rating agency warned in May of “deterioration in the quality of loan debt,” noting that 20% of the banking industry’s capital comes from borrowers whose creditworthiness faces significant decline due to high interest rates.

The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, a think tank with Kremlin ties, found a “moderate probability” of systemic banking crisis by April 2026, warning the risk could increase with continued lending decline and rising poorly performing loans.

Despite these concerns, Russian banks posted record profits of 3.8 trillion rubles in 2024, beating the previous year by 20%, according to central bank data.

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• Putin has received ammo from North Korea. Now he wants soldiers — and Pyongyang is ready to send them in July

Russia and North Korea are preparing a joint attack against Ukraine. North Korea may deploy additional troops on Russia’s side in the war against Ukraine as early as July or August, according to South Korean lawmakers, Reuters reports. 

Ukraine intelligence: North Korean forces may join new Russian offensive on Sumy, Kharkiv

Lee Seong-kweun, a member of South Korea’s National Assembly, stated that this information appeared in a classified report by the National Intelligence Service (NIS). The report was based on the recent visit to Pyongyang by a high-ranking representative of the Russian president’s security service.

“The timing of the additional deployment is that it could be as early as July or August,” Lee notes.

According to the NIS, in exchange for supplying artillery shells and rockets, North Korea is likely to receive satellite launch technology and guidance systems from Russia.

The cooperation between the two authoritarian regimes is based on a mutual defense pact signed in June of last year by Putin and Kim Jong Un.

Earlier, captured North Korean soldiers in Ukraine revealed that Pyongyang operates a military training base designed to resemble Seoul and other major South Korean cities. 

The base is located in Koksan County, North Hwanghae Province, just 65 km from the Demilitarized Zone. The 3.5 km by 1.5 km facility includes a 40-hectare fake city divided into four sections for urban warfare training.

Ukraine and the Council of Europe have signed a formal agreement to establish a Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression, marking a step toward legal accountability for Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The signing ceremony, held in Strasbourg, was broadcast live on the Council of Europe’s official website. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Alain Berset, Chair of the Committee of Ministers, formalized the agreement.

“Every war criminal must know: justice will prevail — and that includes Russia,” said Zelenskyy.

Tribunal to target senior Russian leadership — with limits

The tribunal is designed to prosecute high-level political and military figures responsible for launching the war against Ukraine. However, under current international law, sitting officials such as President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov enjoy legal immunity.

This means they cannot be prosecuted while in office. Trials can only begin once they leave power.

“This was a necessary compromise,” international law scholar Gleb Bogush of the University of Cologne told the BBC. “The G7 — especially the US — insisted on maintaining immunity for top officials. It sets a troubling precedent.”

Tribunal can still try other Russian and Belarusian officials

Despite immunity for top leaders, the tribunal will be empowered to investigate and try other senior Russian and Belarusian officials, potentially even in absentia. Legal experts believe this still sends a strong message about international accountability.

Bogush noted that the tribunal’s presence serves as a “persistent reminder” of the crime of aggression and the obligation to prosecute it under international law.

Questions raised over independence of investigations

The tribunal’s prosecutorial independence has already sparked debate. The agreement gives the Ukrainian Prosecutor General the sole authority to submit names and evidence to initiate cases. The tribunal’s prosecutor cannot act independently of Ukraine’s referral.

“This raises serious concerns about impartiality,” said Bogush. “The tribunal’s ability to act freely is significantly limited.”

Filling the legal gap left by the International Criminal Court

The Special Tribunal is being created to fill a jurisdictional gap in international law. The International Criminal Court (ICC) can investigate war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, but not the crime of aggression unless both states involved have ratified the Rome Statute.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine had ratified the statute when the war began. Ukraine formally ratified it in August 2024, and cooperation between the ICC and the new tribunal is expected going forward.

Structure, location, and next steps

The tribunal’s statute was approved by the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers on 24 June. It will consist of 15 judges, appointed by a committee made up of representatives from participating states.

While the location has not been confirmed, The Hague remains a likely option. The agreement is open to Council of Europe members and other interested countries.

Zelenskyy’s visit follows NATO summit

President Zelenskyy traveled to Strasbourg following his participation in the NATO summit in The Hague. He is also expected to address the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers later in the day.

Russia formally withdrew from the Council of Europe in 2022 after launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its membership had been suspended prior to the withdrawal.

Why they say it’s a win — even if Putin walks for now

• First international court effort aimed at prosecuting Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
• Builds legal pressure on Russian officials for launching the invasion.
• Highlights how Putin and other top leaders remain protected by legal immunity while in office.
• Shows the trade-offs behind creating global justice mechanisms through political compromise.
• Supports Ukraine’s broader strategy to seek legal accountability after the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Brazil in person, the Kremlin confirmed. Instead, he will participate via video conference during the July 6–7 meeting in Rio de Janeiro.

Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov directly attributed Putin’s virtual attendance to Brazil’s membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC). The court issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023, charging him with the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories—charges stemming from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“This is related to certain complications in the context of the ICC’s requirements. The Brazilian government could not take a clear position that would allow our president to participate in person,” Ushakov told Interfax.

Lavrov to attend in Putin’s place

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who is not under any ICC indictment, will represent Russia on-site at the summit.

Although Putin has previously visited ICC member countries such as Mongolia without facing arrest, the Kremlin is treating the situation in Brazil differently due to the perceived legal and diplomatic uncertainties.

Xi Jinping also expected to miss BRICS summit

Chinese President Xi Jinping is also expected to skip the BRICS summit, according to Bloomberg, with Premier Li Qiang representing China instead. This would mark Xi’s first absence from a BRICS summit since taking power.

Sources cited by the South China Morning Post said “scheduling conflicts” were officially cited, but noted that Xi has already met frequently with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Beijing generally avoids sending Xi to the same country two years in a row, with Russia being the exception, according to sources.

Modi to attend in person; India eyes state visit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans to attend the summit in person and may stay on for a state visit to Brazil afterward, a source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Details of the trip are still being finalized.

Xi’s absence, contrasted with Modi’s high-profile visit, could create unfavorable optics for Beijing, as China and India cautiously improve bilateral ties.

BRICS expands amid global power shifts

Formed in 2006, BRICS—originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, and Indonesia. The group aims to serve as a counterbalance to Western-dominated institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Xi’s decision not to attend could also delay diplomatic engagement with Iran, which joined BRICS in 2024 amid ongoing tensions with Israel. The summit would have marked Xi’s first direct meeting with Iranian officials since the conflict began.

The area of potentially mined territories in Ukraine shrunk by over 20% since the end of 2022 to approximately 137,000 square kilometers, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced following a meeting on humanitarian demining measures at the State Emergency Service’s Mine Action Office.

The remaining contaminated area consists predominantly of agricultural land, according to Shmyhal.

“The resource of 112 certified operators, eight of which are foreign currently working in Ukraine, includes over 9,000 specialists, 278 demining and earthmoving equipment units, and over 13,000 metal detectors,” the Prime Minister said.

Following the meeting, the Prime Minister assigned ministries and responsible officials several tasks, including accelerating the launch of the Register of Territories Contaminated with Explosive Ordnance and developing an action plan to attract international financing directly for demining activities.

Ukraine has formed an international anti-mine coalition of over fifty states and secured $1.2 billion in aid for territory clearance, according to Shmyhal.

“Humanitarian demining is a key element of rapid recovery. Our goal is to constantly increase the pace of work to clear Ukrainian fields, villages, cities, and infrastructure from mines as quickly as possible,” the Prime Minister concluded.

Earlier, the government announced allocation of over 22 billion UAH ($528 mn) in partner-provided financial resources for recovery needs, with nearly 18.5 billion UAH ($445 mn) from the Japan International Cooperation Agency designated for medicine, education, agriculture, humanitarian demining, and restoration of municipal services in Ukrainian cities.

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In the first year of a new war, Europe would face refugees, collapsing infrastructure, and skyrocketing prices, Bloomberg reports. 

Analysts warn that a full-scale war between Russia and NATO could lead to the collapse of many countries. In just the first year of fighting, global output would shrink by 1.3%, or nearly $1.5 trillion, a loss equivalent to what the world suffered after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia spy chief warns NATO: Poland and Baltic States to “suffer first” in event of war

The Baltic states would be hit hardest: their economies would shrink by 43%, similar to the economic collapse in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. Poland, Finland, Germany, and Sweden would be next in line for missile strikes and devastation.

The European Union as a whole would lose 1.2% of GDP. Rising military spending would only partially offset the blow from soaring energy prices and crashing markets. The UK would lose 0.2%, the US 0.7%, and China 0.9%.

Russia, on the other hand, would lose just 1%, since its economy is already isolated by sanctions, and the war creates an illusion of growth.

The Kremlin could trigger a new phase of the conflict using a staged provocation. One of the most vulnerable targets is the Moscow-Kaliningrad railway, which passes through Vilnius. Denmark has already warned that Russia could attack a neighboring country within six months, and within two years pose a direct threat to NATO.

The report states that without an immediate US response, the conflict could escalate and spread beyond the Baltic States, engulfing additional countries.

In 2022, Russia launched a surprise assault on northern Ukraine, using Belarusian territory as a staging ground. This rapid advance toward Kyiv exposed a critical weakness: decades of Soviet-era drainage projects had eliminated much of the natural swamp terrain that once acted as a defensive barrier. What was once a maze of waterlogged wilderness had been transformed into dry, passable corridors for enemy vehicles.

Ukraine cannot allow history to repeat itself.

The strategic value of wetlands as defensive barriers is well-established. NATO’s newly acquired Finnish border with Russia runs largely through swampy terrain that has historically reduced the need for large troop deployments, forcing potential threats into predictable corridors.

While traditional military defenses remain necessary, an unconventional yet proven solution is gaining attention: swamp restoration. Reviving the peat bogs and wetlands of regions like Polissia could once again make large swaths of land impassable to tanks and armored vehicles. This strategy not only enhances national defense but also improves water regulation and creates economic opportunities for local communities.

Chernobyl and the vanishing swamp barrier

During their 2022 invasion, Russian troops advanced through the Chernobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve. The wetlands in this area had been drained either before or shortly after the 1986 nuclear disaster. As a result, Russian military vehicles moved easily across the dry terrain, kicking up clouds of radioactive peat dust. Radiation levels near the Chernobyl power plant temporarily spiked by a factor of 20.

The Polissia region stretches across northern Ukraine, overlapping Zhytomyr, Rivne, Chernihiv, and Volyn oblasts. Historically, it was home to one of Europe’s most extensive systems of peat bogs and wetlands. These swampy landscapes were so dense and waterlogged that they were once considered impassable.

But that changed during the Soviet era.

From the 1950s through the 1980s, the USSR launched widespread melioration projects that drained over 1.2 million hectares of Ukraine’s estimated 2.2 million hectares of peatlands. Drainage systems and canals were constructed to convert wetlands into farmland or to extract peat and amber. The ecological cost was enormous, but it also removed one of Ukraine’s most effective natural defense systems.

“If the swamps had still been there, the tanks wouldn’t have gotten through,” said a resident of Makariv, northwest of Kyiv.

Why swamps beat tanks: Nature’s best border defense

Swamps may appear benign, but they can be a nightmare for modern armies. Wheeled and tracked vehicles, including tanks and armored personnel carriers, sink or stall in saturated peat soil. Roads become unreliable or nonexistent, and logistics chains break down.

Only a limited range of amphibious or hovercraft vehicles can navigate these terrains—equipment that most land armies, including Russia’s, do not typically deploy far from water.

In fact, during a 2024 NATO training exercise in Lithuania, a tragic accident highlighted this very issue. Four American soldiers drowned when their armored vehicle sank in a peat bog they mistakenly thought was firm ground.

“Swamps can act as a passive but highly effective barrier—requiring no fuel, no guard, and no concrete,” said German ecologist Dr. Thomas Ziegler, co-author of a study on wetland defense strategies in Eastern Europe.

Belarus is paving the way—literally

The strategic value of Ukraine’s peatlands is also clear to Russia and Belarus. Since 2015, Belarus has constructed over 100 kilometers of roads through the Olmany-Perebrody peat bog system, which straddles the Belarus-Ukraine border. These roads now connect to existing Ukrainian infrastructure.

If Ukraine’s side still had intact swamps, the Belarusian effort would have been strategically futile. Instead, these roadways could become invasion routes, just as they were in 2022.

Many of these routes lead toward Zhytomyr and Novograd-Volynskyi, placing key logistical and population centers at risk. And while peacetime roads encourage trade and travel, in times of conflict, they can become liabilities.

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How Ukraine can bring back its swamp defense

In rebuilding Ukraine’s swamp defenses, simple and low-cost solutions can be surprisingly effective. One model comes straight from nature: beavers. Their dams, built with wood and mud, are low-tech yet capable of restoring water levels in peatlands. Humans can replicate these structures using locally available materials. While not permanent, such barriers work well if maintained—and once water levels rise, real beavers often return, further reinforcing the wetlands.

Rewetting, or restoring water levels in degraded peatlands, is not a new concept. But applying it for military and environmental goals is gaining traction.

The process involves:

• Blocking drainage canals using clay, peat, or natural materials.
• Constructing dams or barriers, sometimes mimicking beaver dams.
• Redirecting water from nearby rivers or rainfall catchment areas.
• Monitoring hydrology to ensure long-term saturation.

A pilot project in the Roztochchia Nature Reserve in Lviv Oblast, launched in 2021, used water pipes, overflow dams, and re-engineered canals to begin the rewetting process. The project proved that old drainage systems can be repurposed to retain water rather than remove it.

“We’re reversing decades of damage,” said Oleksandr Sokyrko, an ecologist involved in the project. “The moment water rises, nature begins to rebuild.”

Swamps begin to recover naturally once water levels rise, supporting biodiversity and reducing fire risks.

The price of protection: Swamps vs. concrete bunkers

Rewetting peatlands in Ukraine costs between €300 and €1,500 per hectare, with the variation depending on factors such as the size and location of the site, existing infrastructure, technical documentation, and accessibility. Full rewetting typically takes 2 to 4 years, as water levels must rise gradually and consistently. One year is rarely sufficient.

Even with these considerations, rewetting remains significantly more cost-effective than constructing and maintaining concrete bunkers or constantly repairing waterlogged trenches. Once restored, swamp-covered zones also require fewer personnel to defend.

Instead of building more expensive fortifications, Ukraine has the opportunity to create a natural, impassable barrier while replenishing critical water reserves. According to German ecologists, this strategy strengthens European security and helps restore hydrological systems, including vital flows to the Dnipro River. Concrete bunkers will still play a role, but fewer will be needed where nature itself serves as a front line.

Ukraine also holds a unique advantage: much of the northern border region is state- or communally-owned land, making it easier to launch swamp defense projects without complicated private property disputes, as often seen in the EU.

Legal and military framework

Since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s government has enacted emergency laws allowing the military to repurpose land within two kilometers of the border with Russia or Belarus for defense infrastructure. This includes converting farmland or forest into swamp restoration zones.

That legal authority, combined with public ownership and local expertise, makes wetland restoration a fast-track defense policy ready for implementation.

Rewetting vs. restoration

Restoring peatland ecosystems requires more than just raising the water level; it demands expertise Ukraine is still developing. However, rewetting—simply raising water levels—is a more straightforward process that can yield fast defensive and ecological benefits. Higher water levels can create new wetland zones or allow the cultivation of water-tolerant plants.

This approach is both more affordable and offers potential economic benefits, but ongoing water-level monitoring is essential to ensure that terrain remains impassable to enemy vehicles.

More than defense: Practical gains

There is also agricultural potential. Ukraine is among the world’s top 10 exporters of wild cranberries, a plant that only grows in peat bogs. With proper management, regenerated swamps could support sustainable cranberry harvesting and even export-certified organic berries at premium prices.

“We can turn our bogs into shields and farms at the same time,” said a representative from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy.

Water for the enemy?

Most of Ukraine’s large-scale land drainage infrastructure was built during the peak of Soviet melioration in the 1960s–1980s. In some cases, these systems still redirect water from Ukrainian peatlands into Belarus. In a time when water is a strategic resource, Ukraine is effectively supplying its adversary for free.

Barriers and challenges

Despite its promise, swamp restoration faces several hurdles:

• Amber mining continues in the north, involving drainage and excavation.
• Peat extraction licenses are still being issued in some oblasts.
• Technical expertise is limited, with few Ukrainian specialists in peatland hydrology.
• Ongoing conflict complicates access to sensitive or dangerous areas.

However, international support is growing. The German Michael Succow Foundation, UNEP, and WWF-Poland have offered to provide technical guidance, free consultations, and in some cases funding.

Final word: Ukraine’s fortress of water and peat

Ukraine’s Soviet-era decision to drain Polissia’s wetlands may have served short-term agricultural goals, but it weakened the country’s strategic defenses. Now, with ongoing war and increasing water stress, the country has a chance to turn that mistake into strength.

By restoring the swamps, Ukraine can:

• Build a natural, low-cost defensive line.
• Improve regional water retention.
• Reduce harmful peat fires.
• Support rural economies.

As wetland defense experts have noted, restored peatlands can act as passive fortresses—impassable to tanks, low-cost to maintain, and capable of slowing and redirecting enemy movements.

Ukraine’s future defense may not lie only in steel and concrete—but also in moss, peat, and rising water.

Russia’s wartime economy—once portrayed by the Kremlin as resilient in the face of Western sanctions—is now faltering, Fortune reports. A key minister warned the country is “on the brink” of recession amid labor shortages, inflation nearing 10%, and a steep downturn in industrial output, all fueled by years of massive war spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on 19 June, Russia’s economy minister Maksim Reshetnikov publicly acknowledged the looming crisis. “On the brink,” he warned, confirming warnings from analysts who had long predicted that Russia’s war-dependent economy would face structural collapse.

His remarks mark a rare admission from within the Russian government that the invasion of Ukraine and the militarization of the economy are causing more harm than officials had let on.

ISW: Putin’s economic forum now a tool to spread wartime optimism

How military spending masked decline

After launching its full-scale invasion in 2022, the Kremlin turned to what economists described as “military Keynesianism”—funneling massive funds into the defense sector to keep GDP growing. In 2021, Russia spent 3.6% of GDP on defense. By 2025, that figure had surged to 6.3%, exceeding the US share.

The strategy temporarily boosted wages and industrial production, with the defense sector reaching a value of $167 billion last year. But the short-term growth masked deeper problems—chief among them, a chronic labor shortage and vanishing productivity.

ISW: Russia wants to modernize army for long war with Ukraine and possible NATO confrontation

Labor shortages reach critical levels

Analysts like Nicholas Fenton of the Center for Strategic and International Studies point to Russia’s severe workforce deficit. The problem worsened drastically due to war: hundreds of thousands of combat deaths, over one million people fleeing the country, and mass mobilizations have drained the labor force.

In 2022 alone, the number of workers aged 16 to 35 dropped by 1.33 million. This demographic collapse is the worst since at least 1996.

Economist Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute compared the situation to “a game of musical chairs,” where inflated wages make war seem materially appealing even as long-term consequences mount. “You want the music going,” she said, calling the situation “morbid.”

Zelenskyy: Russia using prisoner exchanges to delay sanctions, weaken US-Ukraine ties

Wages rise—but so does inflation

Real wages have increased in war-related sectors, but without any matching rise in productivity. That imbalance has triggered widespread inflation, which hit 9.52% last year—up from 7.42% in 2023.

The manufacturing sector—closely tied to defense—saw its steepest decline in nearly three years this spring. Industrial production rose just 0.2% year-on-year, the lowest in two years.

With prices surging, the central bank raised interest rates to 20% in June. Yet even with tight monetary policy, its growth forecast for 2025 remains between just 1% and 2%.

Oil revenues offer temporary relief

Russia’s dependence on oil and gas remains a core vulnerability. These exports account for roughly 20% of GDP, but falling global oil prices and reduced exports in early 2025 forced the Kremlin to revise its budget deficit.

Geopolitical shifts have briefly improved outlooks. The escalation between Israel and Iran has driven up oil prices, offering Russia short-term fiscal breathing room. But analysts say that won’t last.

Israel’s attack on Iran may have revived Moscow’s oil revenues for war

Isolation and sanctions keep pressure high

Even with oil revenue fluctuations, Russia remains shut out of global capital. Sanctions persist, and the exodus of US and other Western companies continues to leave a void in investment and innovation.

Charles Kupchan, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said even with Donald Trump’s friendlier stance on Russia, any economic restoration would come at a political price.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a significant statement in which she clearly distinguished Russia’s war against Ukraine from Israel’s strikes on Iran, Deutsche Welle reports.

According to her, Russia’s full-scale invasion constitutes a blatant violation of the international order, whereas Israel’s actions are of a different nature.

“I don’t fully agree that Israel is violating international law. When a country’s existence is being questioned by Iran or Hamas, it’s not so easy to respond strictly within the framework of international law,” the ex-German chancellor says.

Merkel emphasizes that in Israel’s case, it is about the right to self-defense in the face of threats to the state’s very existence. At the same time, she pointed out clearly that Ukraine posed no such threat.

“Ukraine never threatened Russia — and yet it was attacked,” adds Merkel, underscoring Russia’s breach of international law.

Earlier, Herman Pirchner, president of the American Foreign Policy Council, said a potential US strike on a major Iranian nuclear program may force Moscow to reconsider its approach to the war in Ukraine.

US strike on Iran could force Moscow to imagine what real strength feels like, says expert

Such a decision could impact Moscow’s calculus, as they have yet to see a firm response from the US President Donald Trump administration, as America has not yet responded strongly to any of the Russian attacks, which have only intensified amid peace efforts.

Russia is increasingly recruiting citizens from Central Asian countries, particularly Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, to participate in combat operations against Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (DIU).

The recruitment targets primarily labor migrants who arrive in Russia seeking employment opportunities. Russian army representatives deceive these individuals by promising “quick earnings” through short-term contracts, the DIU reported on 21 June.

Intelligence data indicates that most such “volunteers” die in the war. Among recently eliminated mercenaries from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan were Umarov Sirozhiddin Sabirdzhanovich, born in 1984, and Kholbuvozoda Muhammad Fayzullo, also born in 1984.

The mobilized migrants are formed into separate units that are predominantly deployed to the most dangerous sections of the front, according to the intelligence directorate.

“Even if they survive service on the front, such combatants cannot return to normal life: in their countries of origin, criminal prosecution awaits them for participation in foreign state armed formations with the prospect of long-term imprisonment,” Ukrainian intelligence emphasized.

The practice represents Russia’s expanding recruitment efforts beyond its borders as it seeks to maintain military operations while avoiding broader domestic mobilization that could prove politically costly.

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Latvia’s parliament has prohibited Russian and Belarusian citizens from purchasing real estate in the country, passing the legislation in its final third reading on 19 June.

The ban extends to companies with more than 25 % ownership by citizens of these countries, according to Latvian Public Media. The law includes specific exemptions for inheritance from relatives and allows permanent residents of Latvia to buy a single dwelling for personal use. Previously completed transactions remain unaffected by the new restrictions.

Parliament classified real estate deals with Russian and Belarusian citizens as threats to national security. The legislation states that property purchases in other countries constitute “one of the instruments of non-military influence and elements of hybrid warfare.” The law also asserts that the presence of Russian citizens has been used by Moscow as a pretext for initiating wars.

The measure represents Latvia’s latest step in restricting economic ties with Russia and Belarus amid ongoing regional tensions. The legislation specifically targets individual ownership while preserving certain humanitarian considerations through its inheritance and permanent residency provisions.

Latvia has implemented several new restrictions targeting Russian and Belarusian citizens in 2025, citing national security concerns. The most significant recent bans include: ban on working in critical infrastructure, restrictions on border crossings, ban on state officials, traveling to Russia and Belarus, entry bans near strategic sites.

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A man accused of aiding Russian forces in occupied Berdiansk and organizing torture chambers has been killed, according to Ukrainian military intelligence agency, which just reported his death without confirming its involvement.

On 18 June 2025, in Russian-occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a pro-Russian collaborator and suspected war criminal, Mykhailo Pavlovych Hrytsai, was reportedly shot dead, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) stated.

From politician to collaborator

Hrytsai, originally from Poltava Oblast, previously led the local branch of the “Socialist Ukraine” party. Following the Russian occupation of Berdiansk in 2022, he began cooperating with Russian forces and assumed roles in the so-called occupation administration. He held the titles of “acting city mayor” and “deputy for infrastructure, utilities, and the fuel and energy sector.”

Ukrainian intelligence says Hrytsai exploited state property for the benefit of the Russian occupiers while holding these posts.

Accused of war crimes 

According to HUR, Hrytsai was directly involved in war crimes. These included persecuting the local population, identifying and reporting pro-Ukrainian residents to Russian authorities, and participating in the organization of torture chambers within Berdiansk.

THe Ukrainian law enforcement previously charged him in absentia on 1 April 2022 under Article 111, Part 2 of the Ukrainian Criminal Code for state treason.

Though the HUR statement did not directly claim responsibility for Hrytsai’s killing, it reaffirmed that “for every war crime committed against the Ukrainian people, there will be fair retribution.”

Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on 17 June that Poland has recorded GPS disruptions over the Baltic Sea, attributing the interference to Russian activities.

Speaking to journalists on 17 June, Kosiniak-Kamysz addressed mounting concerns from drone operators who have reported system failures across northern Poland, according to Polish public broadcaster RMF24.

“According to our sources, this is largely related to the actions of the Russian Federation, including acts of sabotage,” Kosiniak-Kamysz stated during the press conference. “We are monitoring these disruptions. They are recorded over the waters of the Baltic Sea, also by our NATO allies – both in the Baltic countries and in Northern Europe.”

The minister confirmed that Poland is actively responding to the situation. “According to our sources, these actions are related to the activities of the Russian Federation, including sabotage,” he emphasized.

Kosiniak-Kamysz revealed that a special security committee was convened several weeks ago to address the disruptions. General Maciej Klisz, the operational commander, prepared recommendations for military aviation while authorities shared information with civilian aviation, flight control agencies, and the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency.

The defense minister stressed the need for heightened vigilance due to increasing incidents of signal interference.

The Polish announcement follows broader regional concerns about navigation system disruptions. Lithuania and 12 other EU countries recently called on the European Commission to take action regarding Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) communication disruptions across member states.

In their letter to the Commission, the countries characterized the GNSS signal disruptions as systematic, repetitive, and targeted actions by Russian and Belarusian regimes aimed at undermining stable infrastructure operations in the region, particularly communications systems.

Days later, Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa announced that the scope of Russian-blocked GPS signals continues to expand.

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• UN criticizes Russia’s proposal to exchange Ukrainian children for prisoners of war

The United Nations condemned Russia’s proposal to exchange abducted Ukrainian children for Russian prisoners of war, with a senior UN official stating that civilians should not be used as bargaining chips.

“Obviously, all innocent civilians, including innocent children, should not be used as bargaining chips,” Deputy Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General Farhan Haq told Ukrinform when commenting on the Russian proposal revealed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Haq emphasized that this principle applies to conflicts worldwide. The UN has repeatedly stressed that deportation of children during conflict constitutes a violation of international humanitarian law.

President Zelenskyy disclosed that Russians had proposed exchanging Ukrainian children for their military prisoners. The Ukrainian leader characterized the occupiers’ proposal as “beyond understanding and beyond the bounds of international law.”

The issue gained prominence during negotiations in Istanbul, where the Russian delegation acknowledged that Russia had abducted Ukrainian children, according to Zelenskyy’s 2 June statement.

First Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Kislytsia provided details of the negotiations on 5 June, reporting that Russian delegation head Vladimir Medinsky cynically stated during talks that Russia “has a couple of dozen, maybe a hundred Ukrainian children.” The same Putin associate confirmed receiving from Ukraine a list of 339 abducted children, Kislytsia said.

Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets reports that as of October 2024, Russian forces have abducted more than 20,000 children from Ukraine. An additional 1.5 million children could potentially be deported, according to his data.

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Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) counterintelligence detained a 44-year-old Kyiv resident suspected of collaborating with Russian military intelligence and directing missile and drone attacks against the Kyiv region, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General.

The suspect worked with the “Senezh” special purpose center of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, according to the investigation. Russian military intelligence first noticed him during a “Roulette” chat broadcast where he expressed pro-Russian views.

After recruitment, the man began tracking locations of local enterprises that he believed could be involved in producing military equipment for Ukraine’s Defense Forces. The detained suspect planned to use the collected data to prepare strikes on the capital region while bypassing Ukrainian air defense systems, according to investigators.

The Security Service documented the suspect’s activities and implemented comprehensive measures to protect Ukrainian enterprises before arresting him at his residence in Kyiv.

Authorities seized two phones from the detained man containing photos of Ukrainian facilities with Google Maps coordinates attached.

The man has been charged with high treason under martial law conditions. He faces life imprisonment with property confiscation.

The detention represents the latest in a series of recent SBU operations against alleged Russian agents. On 6 June, the SBU reported detaining men who prepared terrorist attacks in Dnipro and Lviv oblast on Russia’s orders. On 9 June, authorities arrested a Kyiv resident accused of identifying air defense positions in the capital and coordinating strikes. On 11 June, a 57-year-old unemployed local resident was detained in Lviv Oblast on suspicion of providing Russian special services with data about airfield operations and preparing new attacks on the oblast.

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The Fahrenheit clothing company suspended operations indefinitely after Russian forces damaged its production facility during a massive overnight attack on Kyiv on 17 June. The strike hit the factory where the company manufactures clothing and underwear for civilians and military personnel.

“We are forced to report that due to another barbaric attack by Russia, our production was damaged,” the company announced on Facebook. “The blow fell on the place where we have been creating clothes for everyone for years, including for our military.”

The attack forced Fahrenheit to cancel all current orders and halt acceptance of new ones for an indefinite period, according to the company’s statement.

The June 17 strike was part of what authorities called “one of the most extensive bombardments in recent months,” killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens more across Ukraine. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the attack involved more than 440 drones and 32 missiles launched overnight, targeting multiple oblasts including Kyiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv oblasts.

Kyiv authorities confirmed 14 fatalities and more than 100 injuries in the capital by 9:30 am. In Odesa, regional administration reported one person killed and 17 injured during the bombardment.

The attack on Fahrenheit represents another blow to Ukrainian businesses supporting the war effort. The company’s facility produced essential clothing items for the Armed Forces of Ukraine alongside civilian garments.

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Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Clinics, located 50 kilometers from the EU’s external border with Belarus, is developing underground infrastructure, shelters, helicopter landing sites and autonomous systems to function without electricity or water supplies, according to Politico.

The hospital’s preparations mirror those across the region. Estonian authorities are procuring body armor for ambulance crews and satellite phones to maintain communications if traditional networks fail. Plans include generating an independent internet network if necessary.

“We know for certain that Russia targets the civilian infrastructure and energy structures, and that means that you cannot have these kinds of situations where the hospital doesn’t work because there are some power plant problems,” said Ragnar Vaiknemets, deputy director general of the Estonian Health Board.

Electrical generators are being installed across healthcare systems, following Ukraine’s experience with Russian strikes that routinely cut off civilian power. Many hospitals in Eastern Europe — built during the Soviet era — present particular vulnerabilities as large, high buildings concentrated in single complexes.

“I can’t imagine working on a top level … of the hospital just waiting to get hit,” Vaiknemets said, explaining plans to repurpose basements as operating theaters.

Capacity and supply challenges

European countries average 11.5 intensive care beds per 100,000 population, but wartime needs could require three to five times this capacity, according to Bjørn Guldvog, special adviser at the Norwegian Directorate of Health. Most facilities can sustain only 120-150 percent of normal surgical volume for 24 to 48 hours.

Estonia has allocated €25 million for mass casualty supplies, including orthopedic gear, tourniquets and trauma kits — “the only heavy investment we have made,” Health Minister Riina Sikkut said in February.

Latvia requires healthcare institutions to maintain a three-month supply of medicines, a policy established during Covid-19. “I have never thought that I would say thanks to Covid, but thanks to Covid … we found financial resources,” said Agnese Vaļuliene, health ministry state secretary.

The Baltic states’ proximity to potential front lines creates additional challenges for emergency supply storage. Jos Joosten, a medical adviser at the European External Action Service, said other EU countries must identify scarce resources for smaller nations and surrender some sovereignty to enable EU-level distribution decisions.

Workforce uncertainty

Staff shortages present a fundamental challenge for Baltic healthcare systems already stretched thin in peacetime. Estonia, with 1.3 million people, has nearly half the healthcare workforce per capita of Germany.

A Lithuanian survey found that over a quarter of health workers would likely flee during war, while fewer than 40 percent would stay and a third were unsure. Estonia anticipates similar patterns, with officials estimating 50-60 percent of the population don’t yet know how they would respond.

“There are patriots, the first responders, the people that we know without question will stay,” Vaiknemets said. “Of course, there are naysayers that talk about going to Spain straight away.”

Paramedic Noreikaitė signed a declaration committing to work if war breaks out in Lithuania, but acknowledged uncertainty about actual response rates. “But how it would really be — who would come and who wouldn’t — I don’t know. Personally, I don’t have children or a family yet, so I think I would stay,” she said.

Latvian pulmonologist Rūdolfs Vilde said some doctors were considering fleeing if war breaks out, especially parents who “don’t see how it would be suitable for them to ditch the children somewhere and be in the hospital in times of military crisis.”

Learning from Ukraine’s experience

Baltic medical professionals are traveling to Ukraine to observe firsthand how hospitals manage missile strikes, mass casualties and power outages. Vaiva Jankienė, a nurse who has volunteered over 20 times in Ukraine since April 2022, described the scale of injuries as “difficult to comprehend.”

“After the drone attacks, the consequences are hard to imagine,” Jankienė said. “Injuries like these,” she sighed, “every single medical professional who saw them said the same thing: We couldn’t have imagined it would look like this.”

While a trauma doctor in Lithuania might perform one amputation annually, Ukrainian hospital wards are filled with patients suffering amputations of multiple limbs plus other severe injuries. “We have very little experience treating such complex, multiple traumas,” she said.

Regional evacuation planning

The use of advanced weaponry in Ukraine — including long-range missiles and military drones — means the front line is no longer a fixed boundary. Attacks can reach targets hundreds of kilometers away, making evacuation plans essential for countries throughout the region.

Joosten warned that EU solidarity will be tested if conflicts escalate. “If Lithuania is overrun, who’s responsible for Lithuanians, because there’s no Lithuania anymore? But the European Union is (still there),” he said.

He urged EU institutions to create funds for handling civilian and military casualties, as well as displaced populations, noting that casualty numbers could dramatically exceed Ukraine’s experience. “Those 4,000 patients we moved away from Ukraine, that’s nothing, 4,000 in three years,” he said. “Let’s talk about 4,000 in two weeks, and then the next two weeks again.”

The preparations reflect a shift in mindset across NATO’s eastern flank. “It’s not a question of if [Russia] will attack,” Vaiknemets said. “It’s a question about when.”

As Lithuania’s deputy health minister Daniel Naumovas put it in February: “We have bad neighbors here: Russia and Belarus.” While all EU countries face similar challenges, some are “in the vanguard where the water is cold,” he said. “Water is splashing on our face; water of war.”

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Ukrainian drone operators have begun teaching Estonia’s volunteer Defence League military warfare tactics in a program now in its third week, ERR reported on 16 June.

The training near Tapa base involves teams of volunteers hunting each other’s drones. “The specific task for this course is for the third weekend – we’ve split into two teams that have to find each other, report it, and call in long-range fire,” said operator Erki.

Ukrainian instructors currently on leave from the front lines are leading the program. “Artillery – that’s like the ‘weapon’ of God. I would say drones – those are the ‘eyes’ of God. Right now, nothing gets to happen without a drone,” said instructor “Max.”

Another instructor, “Picasso,” described combat reality: “In the evening we’re taken to our position – between 7 and 8 PM. You get out of the car, grab your gear, carry it into the dugout and start work right away. It lasts six hours. After that, you sleep for six hours. You fly, you bomb.”

Front-line deployments can last weeks. On average it is seven days and nights. “But the longest I’ve been there was 29 days,” “Picasso” said. Soldiers use Starlink because a 4G solution reportedly only shows the enemy the target.

Estonia’s new “Kullisilm” (Hawk’s eye) drone unit was announced last month. Current trainees will become instructors this fall, teaching new students in forest and bunker locations.

The program builds on Estonia’s purchase of over 100 training drones two years ago. Baltic neighbors Latvia and Lithuania also operate drone manufacturing facilities and transfer portions of production to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Politico reports Baltic countries are preparing hospitals for possible war with Russia.

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Latvia’s State Security Service (VDD) detained former parliamentarian Aleksejs Rosļikovs on 16 June, following criminal charges related to his Russian-language outburst in parliament, Latvian Television reported.

The VDD opened criminal proceedings against Rosļikovs on 9 June on suspicion of assisting the aggressor state Russia in actions against Latvia and inciting national hatred and discord.

The case stems from Rosļikovs’ conduct during a 5 June parliamentary session, when he was expelled from the Saeima for rudeness and speaking Russian. During debate on a draft resolution titled “Declaration on the criminal Russification of Latvia by the Soviet occupation regime and the elimination of its linguistic consequences,” Rosļikovs took the podium to oppose including the project on the agenda.

At the end of his speech, he shouted a phrase in Russian that translates as: “There are more of us, our language is Russian!”

Following the incident, Rosļikovs told Latvian Television he did not regret his actions. “This was his response to restrictions on his native language, Russian,” the broadcaster reported.

The VDD had previously warned Rosļikovs “several times in preventive conversations about the expected criminal liability,” according to the security service.

Investigators identified signs of criminal offenses under Article 81.1 and Article 78 of the Criminal Law – assistance to a foreign state in actions directed against the Republic of Latvia, and inciting national hatred and discord. State officials face up to 20 years imprisonment for assisting foreign states in actions directed against Latvia.

The State Language Center initiated administrative violation proceedings regarding Rosļikovs’ actions, while the State Police will review complaints from several Saeima deputies about his conduct.

Rosļikovs, who represented the “Stability!” party, lost his parliamentary mandate after being elected to Riga City Council, meaning he can no longer be punished for potential ethics violations in his former role as MP.

Former President Valdis Zatlers commented that the deputy was trying to address his voters and that the incident demonstrated why it is important to participate in elections.

Russia could reach the borders of Romania, a NATO member, and attack other countries if Europe fails to help defend Moldova. On 11 June, at the Ukraine–Southeastern Europe summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that after targeting Moldova, Moscow plans to occupy the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, UNIAN reports. 

According to Zelenskyy, Southeastern Europe and Ukraine are among Russia’s targets for provoking chaos in Europe. Moscow has already stirred unrest in the Balkans, attempted to manipulate public opinion in Romania, and has kept Moldova in poverty and instability for three decades in an effort to bring it under its control, he said. 

“If Europe loses Moldova this year, it will encourage Russia to interfere even more in your countries, seizing your resources, your sovereignty, and even your history,” Zelenskyy warned.

The Ukrainian leader stressed that Russia does not see Ukraine as a sovereign state, but rather as a heap of resources and a military platform for future invasions.

Putin’s Victory Day speech may reveal his next target in Ukraine

Regardless of what Putin believes, Zelenskyy said, European countries must put Russia in a position where the aggressor is forced to seek peace. He emphasized that this is entirely possible and depends on Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

“Air defense systems and drones are crucial. Another key tool is sanctions,” he claimed.

Zelenskyy explained that Ukraine needs stronger support, especially regarding Russian oil tankers and the aggressor’s financial sector.

“About the oil price cap: $45 per barrel is better than $60—that’s obvious, that’s true. But real peace will come with a cap of $30 per barrel,” he emphasized.

He also urged European countries to treat postwar security guarantees as a matter of practical necessity.

On 12 June 2025, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that Russian military personnel losses since 24 February 2022 have reached 1,000,340, coinciding with Russia’s national holiday, so-called Russia Day.

A symbolic milestone on Russia Day

The General Staff reported that Ukraine’s Defense Forces eliminated 1,140 Russian soldiers in the past 24 hours, pushing the total number of Russian military losses since the start of the full-scale invasion past one million.

Previously, the Ukrainian officials clarified that the General Staff’s figures refer specifically to Russian soldiers killed, whereas foreign sources often interpret these numbers as the combined total of those killed and wounded in action.

The announcement was made public through the General Staff’s official Facebook page. Notably, the seven-digit figure was reached on 12 June, a day celebrated by the Russian state as its national holiday.

Putin won’t accept peace unless Russian empire is restored, says US ex-defense secretary Gates

Russian equipment and weapon losses reported as of 12 June 2025:

• Personnel: 1,000,340 in total (+1,140 yesterday)
• Tanks: 10,933 (+6)
• Armored vehicles: 22,786 (+3)
• Artillery systems: 29,063 (+47)
• MLRS: 1,413
• Air defense systems: 1,184 (+1)
• Aircraft: 416
• Helicopters: 337
• Drones: 40,435 (+138)
• Cruise missiles: 3,337
• Naval vessels: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Military trucks/fuel tankers: 51,715 (+136)
• Special equipment: 3,914

Growing pace of Russian losses

The military provided a breakdown of cumulative losses by year:

• In 2022: 106,720 killed (average 340 per day)
• In 2023: 253,290 killed (average 693 per day)
• In 2024: 430,790 killed (average 1,177 per day)
• In 2025, by 4 June: over 200,000 killed (average 1,286 per day)

More than 628,000 of these deaths occurred in just the last 18 months, according to the GenStaff.

Notable peak days in Russian casualties

The General Staff identified several of the deadliest days of the war:

• 28 November 2024: 2,030 killed
• 19 December 2024: 2,200 killed
• 29 December 2024: 2,010 killed

These dates reflect concentrated combat or high-impact Ukrainian counterstrikes during key offensives.

Yesterday in figures

On 11 June 2025, there were 220 combat clashes, according to the report. That same day, Russian forces launched two missile attacks and 86 airstrikes, dropped 136 guided bombs, used 3,744 kamikaze drones, and shelled Ukrainian positions and settlements 6,064 times.

In response, Ukraine’s Defense Forces conducted strikes on:

• 10 Russian troop, weapon, or equipment locations
• 5 command posts
• 7 artillery systems
• 3 ammunition depots
• 2 additional key targets
• “air defenses”

Since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, Ukraine’s defense forces have proven remarkably effective at targeting Russian rotary-wing aircraft, achieving key tactical victories that have impacted Russia’s air support capabilities. These incidents are not just statistics; they highlight evolving warfare dynamics, the ingenuity of defenders, and underscore the potency of modern weapon systems used against even advanced aircraft. Tracking confirmed losses and captures provides crucial insights into the ongoing air war. Here are five major incidents including notable captures and successful shoot-downs that have significantly impacted Russia’s helicopter fleet and made international headlines between 2022 and 2025.

Detailed Incidents

1. Captured Ka‑52 “Alligator” near Kyiv Airport (Feb–Apr 2022)

• Incident: During the initial, intense assault on Kyiv on 24 February 2022, Russian Ka‑52 “Alligator” attack helicopters played a key role in attempting to secure objectives like the Hostomel airport. Exposed to determined Ukrainian air defenses, several were hit by MANPADS (Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems). One specific Ka-52 sustained damage and crash-landed near Hostomel airport. Its wreck remained relatively intact in the field through early April 2022, after the initial Russian advance was repelled. Ukrainian special operations forces eventually secured the downed helicopter.


• Significance:
  
  
  
  • This incident was one of the earliest high-profile confirmed losses of Russia’s most advanced attack helicopter type.
  
  
  • Crucially, securing a relatively intact airframe provided Ukrainian forces, and potentially their Western partners, with rare access to modern Russian aviation technology.
  
  
  • Analyzing its systems, avionics, and countermeasures offered invaluable insights into Russian capabilities and weaknesses, informing defensive strategies and electronic warfare efforts.
  
  
  • The capture became a symbol of failed Russian air assault tactics during the initial phase of the invasion.
  
  
  
  

2. Russian Mi-8 Helicoper Captured by Defecting Pilot (Aug 2023)

• Incident: In a stunning and highly unusual incident in August 2023, a Russian Mi-8AMTSh transport helicopter, carrying parts for Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets, landed at a Ukrainian military airfield near Kharkiv. The pilot, Maksym Kuzminov, had deliberately defected to Ukraine in a pre-planned operation coordinated with Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR). The two other crew members onboard, unaware of the plan, were reportedly killed attempting to resist after landing.


• Significance:
  
  
  
  • This was a major intelligence coup for Ukraine, providing access not only to a modern Mi-8 variant but also to valuable aircraft parts and, most importantly, the pilot’s testimony and insights into Russian air force operations and morale.
  
  
  • The incident delivered a significant psychological blow to the Russian military, highlighting potential internal dissent and raising concerns about the trustworthiness of their personnel.
  
  
  • It demonstrated the effectiveness of Ukrainian intelligence operations aimed at encouraging defections.
  
  
  • The captured helicopter itself became a military asset for Ukraine and a subject of international media attention.
  
  
  
  

3. HIMARS Strikes on Ka‑52 & Mi‑8 in Russia’s Belgorod (Mar 2025)

• Incident: In a sophisticated deep-action strike in March 2025, Ukrainian forces successfully targeted a forward staging airfield in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, located relatively close to the Ukrainian border. Utilizing M30A2-guided rockets fired from the US-provided HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), Ukrainian precision strikes reportedly destroyed two Ka‑52 attack helicopters and two Mi‑8 transports that were positioned on the ground.


• Significance:
  
  
  
  • This strike demonstrated Ukraine’s increasing capability to accurately hit high-value Russian military assets located deep behind the immediate front lines using Western-supplied long-range precision artillery.
  
  
  • Targeting helicopters on the ground, particularly advanced types like the Ka-52, is an effective way to degrade Russia’s air support capabilities before they can even reach the combat zone.
  
  
  • The incident underscored the vulnerability of even seemingly secure forward operating bases to modern guided missile systems like HIMARS.
  
  
  • It highlighted Ukraine’s intelligence capabilities in identifying and targeting valuable concentrations of Russian military equipment.
  
  
  
  

SOF, along with the military intelligence and Rocket Forces and Artillery, struck and destroyed 4 russian helicopters – two Kamov Ka-52 and two Mil Mi-8 – behind enemy lines at russia’s hidden position for rapid redeployment or attacks against Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/57swOQxZnc

— SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES OF UKRAINE (@SOF_UKR) March 24, 2025

4. Significant Mi‑24/35 and Ka‑52 Losses in 2023 Combat Operations

• Mi‑24/35: The Mi-24 (Hind) and its modernized variants (Mi-35) have been workhorse attack helicopters for Russia. Throughout 2023, these aircraft continued to operate in contested airspace and faced significant threats. For instance, in early April 2023, a Russian Mi‑24VM variant was specifically reported as shot down in Kharkiv Oblast due to MANPADS fire.


• Ka‑52: The Ka-52 “Alligator” saw extensive use, particularly in supporting ground offensives in 2023. However, it also suffered heavy losses. Reports from open sources and visually confirmed losses tracked by organizations like Oryx indicate that numerous Ka‑52s were destroyed across combat zones including critical sectors like Vuhledar, Avdiivka, and areas in Belgorod Oblast. Visual confirmations alone account for over 64 losses of this type throughout the conflict by the end of 2023, with reports suggesting over 20 destroyed within that specific year.


• Significance:
  
  
  
  • These sustained losses underscore the persistent vulnerability of Russian attack helicopters to a combination of layered Ukrainian defenses, including shoulder-fired MANPADS, short-range air defenses, artillery fire, FPV drones, and electronic warfare that disrupts their targeting and navigation.
  
  
  • Despite their armor and countermeasures, both older Mi-24/35 and newer Ka-52s proved susceptible when operating in high-threat environments.
  
  
  • The attrition rate for these helicopters significantly degraded Russia’s ability to provide close air support and perform reconnaissance effectively.
  
  
  
  

5. Mi‑28N “Night Hunter” Wreckages Found in Hostomel (2022)

• Incident: During the initial invasion in February 2022, Russian forces attempted to seize key airfields, including Hostomel, using helicopter assaults spearheaded by attack aviation. Among the types deployed was the Mil Mi-28N “Night Hunter,” intended as Russia’s premier all-weather attack helicopter. Following the failed assault on Kyiv and the withdrawal of Russian forces from northern Ukraine in late March and April 2022, the wreckage of at least two Mi‑28N attack helicopters was discovered in the vicinity of Hostomel and other northern areas like Kharkiv Oblast. These losses were attributed to successful engagements by Ukrainian ground forces using MANPADS and other ground-based anti-aircraft fire.


• Significance:
  
  
  
  • The loss of Mi-28N helicopters, similar to the Ka-52 losses, demonstrated that even Russia’s newer, technologically advanced attack helicopters were not immune to Ukrainian air defenses.
  
  
  • It showed that aircraft intended for high survivability in contested environments could be effectively neutralized by relatively low-cost, portable weapon systems when operating at low altitudes or during vulnerable phases of flight like landings and takeoffs.
  
  
  • The presence of their wrecks among others near key objectives like Hostomel highlighted the heavy cost Russia paid in rotary-wing assets during the initial, unsuccessful attempts to achieve rapid air superiority and capture strategic points from the air.
  
  
  
  

Quick Stats on Russian Helicopter Losses (as of mid-2025)

Based on aggregated data from open sources like Oryx and reputable military analysis sites, the confirmed visual losses of Russian helicopters in Ukraine are significant:

• Ka‑52 “Alligator”: Around 60 visually confirmed destroyed, with others damaged or captured. This represents a substantial portion of Russia’s operational Ka-52 fleet entering the invasion.


• Mi-8/Mi-17 Transports: Over 23 visually confirmed destroyed, including various transport and specialized variants, with some captured (like the notable incident in August 2023). These losses impact troop and cargo movement capabilities.


• Mi-24/Mi-35 Attack Helicopters: Over 13 visually confirmed total losses of these older, but still widely used, attack helicopters.


• Mi-28N “Night Hunter”: Around 13 visually confirmed destroyed, with others damaged. These losses are particularly impactful given the Mi-28N’s intended role as a premier attack platform.


• Other Types: Additional losses include Mi-26 heavy transport helicopters, Ka-29, and other types, though in smaller numbers.

Collectively, the confirmed visually verifiable losses of Russian helicopters in the conflict likely exceed 100 airframes by mid-2025. While challenging to give an exact real-time figure (actual losses are likely higher than visually confirmed), this represents a significant percentage of Russia’s pre-war rotary-wing force and seriously degrades their air assault, close air support, and logistical capabilities. 

Why These Losses Matter

These specific incidents and the overall high rate of Russian helicopter losses are important for several reasons:

• Technological Evolution of Warfare: They powerfully demonstrate the rising efficacy and proliferation of modern anti-air systems, ranging from advanced MANPADS and short-range air defenses to guided missiles (like HIMARS against ground targets) and the increasing threat posed by various types of drones.


• Shifting Air Warfare Dynamics: The vulnerability of rotary-wing assets in contested airspaces signals a significant shift from earlier conflicts where helicopters could often operate with relative impunity. This forces changes in tactics, requiring greater caution, better electronic warfare support, and adaptation to operate in environments where the “air is not clear.”


• Impact on Ground Operations: Helicopters are vital for rapid troop deployment, close air support, medical evacuation, and logistics. Their significant attrition rate directly impedes Russia’s ability to conduct these operations effectively, impacting the pace and success of ground offensives.


• Intelligence Gathering: The capture of intact or relatively intact airframes (like the Ka-52 and Mi-8) provides invaluable intelligence on Russian technology and tactics, aiding Ukraine and its allies in developing countermeasures.


• Psychological and Morale Impact: Capturing and destroying expensive, high-profile military assets like attack helicopters not only has operational consequences but also serves as a powerful symbol of resistance and success for Ukrainian forces, undermining Russian morale.

Takeaway

The cases of Russian helicopters captured or destroyed in Ukraine showcase the brutal realities of modern warfare and the effectiveness of determined defense against technologically advanced adversaries. The evolving methods used by Ukrainian forces ranging from proven surface-to-air missiles and precise HIMARS strikes against ground targets, to innovative uses of drones and successful intelligence operations leading to captures highlight Ukraine’s strategic innovation and adaptation.

These incidents not only shift battlefield dynamics by making rotary-wing assets significantly more vulnerable but symbolize a broader recalibration of air power effectiveness in the face of widely available and capable defensive systems in 2025.

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Western security officials continue to assess that Russia is preparing for a protracted confrontation with NATO, according to recent intelligence briefings and statements from alliance leadership.

NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte disclosed on 9 June that intelligence assessments indicate Russia will produce 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles in 2025. The production figures may include both new vehicles and refurbished equipment from Russia’s Soviet-era stockpiles, though Rutte did not specify the breakdown between these categories.

“Russia is cooperating with the People’s Republic of China, North Korea, and Iran and Russia is reconstituting its forces with Chinese technology,” Rutte said during the briefing.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 9 June that Russia does not need to reconstitute its forces to pre-2022 levels before posing a threat to NATO states. According to ISW’s analysis, Russia could launch military operations against a NATO state before 2030.

Rutte also announced that Russia “could be capable of launching military operations against NATO within five years,” aligning closely with the ISW assessment timeline.

In response to these threat assessments, NATO defense ministers agreed on 5 June to increase air and missile defense spending by 400 percent. The spending increase aims to protect against large-scale drone and missile strikes similar to those Russia has deployed against Ukraine.

ISW reported on 8 June that Russian officials are establishing groundwork to exit international arms control agreements as part of preparations for potential military confrontation with NATO. The assessment indicates Moscow may exploit the ongoing Ukraine war to justify renouncing participation in additional international arms control frameworks as it prepares for expanded confrontation with Western powers.

Russia’s potential withdrawal from arms control mechanisms would eliminate key constraints on weapons development and deployment that have maintained strategic stability since the Cold War era, according to the ISW analysis.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will call for a 400% increase in air and missile defence systems during a speech in London on 9 June, Reuters reported, citing Rutte’s office.

The proposal represents one of the key priorities for the upcoming NATO summit scheduled for 24-25 June in The Hague, where alliance members will discuss enhanced defence capabilities.

The NATO chief argues that current defence levels are insufficient for maintaining credible deterrence.

“The fact is, we need a quantum leap in our collective defence. The fact is, we must have more forces and capabilities to implement our defence plans in full,” he said.

Rutte’s call comes as European nations face mounting pressure to increase military spending following signals from US President Donald Trump about shifting American policy priorities. The Secretary General is pushing alliance members to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% allocated to broader security-related expenditures.

This would meet Trump’s demand for a 5% target, which Rutte said last month he assumed would be agreed at the June summit.

Bloomberg previously reported that NATO has asked European member countries to increase ground-based air defence forces by five times, though individual targets for each nation vary and implementation timelines remain undetermined.

Several countries have already announced spending increases. Britain pledged to raise defence expenditure from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with a target of 3% at a later date. Germany indicated it will need approximately 50,000 to 60,000 additional active soldiers under new NATO requirements.

The enhanced defence call reflects ongoing concerns about regional security amid Russia’s continuing war against Ukraine.

Ukraine’s military intelligence has disclosed technical specifications of Russia’s V2U strike drone, which employs artificial intelligence for autonomous target selection and operates primarily in the Sumy Oblast, according to a report from the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.

The drone’s computational system runs on a Chinese Leetop A203 minicomputer powered by an NVIDIA Jetson Orin high-speed processor assembly, intelligence officials revealed. This configuration enables the aircraft to identify and engage targets without human intervention.

“V2U is equipped with only one GPS module, which likely indicates Russians’ abandonment of satellite navigation due to Ukrainian electronic warfare systems,” the intelligence reported. “Navigation is likely implemented through ‘computer vision’ — the drone compares camera images with pre-loaded terrain photos.”

The aircraft incorporates FPV control capabilities through LTE communication, utilizing a Microdrive Tandem-4GS-OEM-11 modem-router that operates with Ukrainian mobile carrier SIM cards, according to the intelligence assessment.

Ukrainian analysts determined that despite Russian markings, the modem’s components originate from China. The drone’s construction relies predominantly on Chinese-manufactured parts, including the engine, GPS module, servos, solid-state drive, rangefinder, speed controllers, and power elements.

“A Japanese light-sensitive Sony sensor, an electromagnetic relay from Irish company Te Connectivity, and the mentioned American Jetson Orin module are installed,” intelligence officials added.

The disclosure follows Russia’s 29 May deployment of another new weapon system — the Dan-M jet-powered strike drone capable of reaching altitudes up to 9 kilometers. Military communications expert Serhiy Beskrestnov said that Dan-M represents a converted aerial target originally designed for air defense training and testing.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed on Facebook that Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces, together with other Defense Forces components, struck the Russian enterprise VNDIR-Progress on the night of 9 June.

The facility produces components for Shahed drones and is located more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

“A military-industrial complex facility where antennas for Shaheds were manufactured has been hit. The strike on the facility by at least two UAVs and the subsequent large-scale fire have been confirmed. The results of the strike are being clarified,” the General Staff reported.

The attack occurred as part of efforts aimed at “reducing the Russian capability to manufacture means of air attack,” according to Ukrainian military officials.

The General Staff specified that VNDIR-Progress is a facility of Russian military-industrial complex that manufactures navigation equipment. The enterprise produces adaptive “Komet” antennas used in Shahed-type strike UAVs, unified planning and correction modules for guided aerial bombs, and other precision weapons.

Ukrainian forces had previously targeted four Russian airports with temporary flight restrictions on the night of 9 June, while explosions were reported in Cheboksary, the capital of the Chuvash Republic. Later reports confirmed that the drone attack in Cheboksary caused a fire at the VNDIR-Progress facility, which produces “Komet” receivers that protect Russian military drones from Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. The plant suspended operations following the strike.

Russian forces launched a massive nighttime aerial assault on Ukraine’s Rivne Oblast early on 9 June, injuring one civilian, according to regional military administration head Oleksandr Koval.

Rivne Mayor Oleksandr Tretyak said that it was the most extensive assault on the oblast to date. Russian forces deployed dozens of Shahed drones and missiles against the oblast, Tretyak said.

Air defense forces destroyed numerous targets during the bombardment, Koval said. Defense forces and emergency services personnel are working at the strike sites, though the regional administration chief did not specify additional consequences of the Russian attack.

Explosions were heard overnight in Rivne, Dubno, and other settlements across the oblast. Ukraine’s Air Force had warned of missiles and drones heading toward Rivne and Dubno.

The assault extended beyond Rivne Oblast as Russian troops attacked Ukraine with Shahed drones from multiple directions while launching cruise and ballistic missiles. Kiev experienced explosions, with one drone striking an office building in the Darnytskyi district, according to the Kyiv City Military Administration head Tymur Tkachenko.

The attack also affected Kyiv Oblast’s Boryspil district, where a residential building, outbuilding, and vehicle sustained damage, Kyiv Oblast police reported on Telegram.

The attack damaged a private house, car, and farm building in Boryspil district. No casualties has been reported.

Patrol officers, an investigative team, and explosives experts are working at the scene in Boryspil district. The air raid alert lasted over six hours as air defense systems operated across Kyiv and the surrounding oblast.

The overnight assault represented Russia’s latest large-scale drone attack on Ukraine, with explosions reported in multiple cities across the country.

A drone strike sparked a fire at a defense contractor in Cheboksary, Chuvashia Republic, forcing the facility to halt production of military equipment used by Russian forces in Ukraine.

AT “VNDIR-Progress” suspended operations after two drones struck the facility, according to Chuvash Republic head Oleg Nikolaev. The company manufactures “Kometa” satellite signal receivers that help Russian military drones evade Ukrainian electronic warfare systems, Telegram channel Astra reports.

“Two UAVs fell on the territory of AT ‘VNDIR’, which led to a decision to temporarily halt production to ensure employee safety,” Nikolaev said on Telegram. “One more drone each fell in fields of Cheboksary and Krasnoarmeysky municipal districts – there is no threat to people.”

The official made no mention of fire damage at the plant, noting only that there were no casualties and “all services are working in enhanced mode.”

However, Astra published photos and videos showing flames engulfing sections of the factory complex. The facility is located over 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine.

AT “VNDIR-Progress” operates as part of the “ABS Electro” manufacturing group. According to the company website, it develops and produces “scientific and technical products, software and hardware systems, automation and control systems, electrical products, electronic component base, electronic modules and radio-electronic products.”

Astra reports the plant specifically manufactures “Kometa/Kometa M” family satellite signal receivers for Russian armed forces. These devices enable Russian military units to circumvent Ukrainian electronic warfare capabilities.

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed air defenses destroyed and intercepted 49 Ukrainian unmanned aircraft overnight. The ministry reported shooting down 13 drones each over Kursk and Nizhny Novgorod oblasts, nine each over Voronezh and Orel oblasts, two each over Bryansk Oblast and Chuvash Republic, and one over Belgorod Oblast.

On the night of 9 June, authorities imposed temporary flight restrictions at four Russian airports while explosions echoed through Cheboksary.

Poland’s president-elect Karol Nawrocki said he opposes Ukraine’s European Union membership at this time, according to an interview with Hungarian publication Mandiner.

“Currently, I am against Ukraine’s entry into the European Union,” Nawrocki said when asked about Brussels’ push for accelerated Ukrainian accession procedures.

The president was elected late in May, securing 50.89% of votes in the second round against Rafał Trzaskowski’s 49.11%.

He emphasized in the interview with Mandiner that Poland must support Ukraine strategically while protecting its own interests. Nawrocki argued that Ukraine must understand “other countries, including Poland and Hungary and other European countries, also have their own interests.”

He cited specific Polish concerns, including the exhumation of Volhynian massacre victims and protecting Polish agriculture from what he termed “unfair competition” with Ukraine. “During the campaign I did not agree, and as president I will not agree to unfair competition with Ukraine against Polish agriculture or the logistics sector,” Nawrocki said.

Despite his EU stance, Nawrocki described Russia as the region’s primary threat. “For me as an anti-communist, and in my opinion for the entire region, the greatest threat is the Russian Federation. This is a post-imperial, neo-communist state headed by Vladimir Putin, a war criminal,” he said.

The president-elect revealed personal stakes in the war, noting Russian authorities pursue him with criminal charges. “I am very critical of the Russian Federation, where, incidentally, they persecute me as president of the Institute of National Memory. Five years in prison camp threatens me,” according to Mandiner.

Nawrocki acknowledged Poland’s leading role in supporting Ukraine under outgoing President Andrzej Duda. However, he argued this support justifies Poland’s right to protect its interests. He called for “compromise and consensus” on contentious issues between the neighboring countries.

The president-elect, who takes office 6 August, previously said in January he saw Ukraine “neither in the EU nor in NATO.” Ukraine’s foreign ministry then rejected those comments as “biased and manipulative.”

Nawrocki’s position contrasts with the current government led by Donald Tusk, whom he criticized throughout the campaign. The president-elect promised to restore “balance” to Polish politics and serve as a voice for citizens whose concerns “are not heard in Donald Tusk’s Poland.”

Two major industrial fires erupted in Russia on 7 June, with blazes at facilities in Kstovo and Pushkino, prompting large-scale emergency responses and raising questions about the causes of the incidents.

In Kstovo, located in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, a bitumen production plant with a capacity of about 200 cubic meters caught fire, according to local emergency services. The facility is situated near the Lukoil oil refinery, one of Russia’s ten largest petroleum processing plants by design capacity.

The area of the fire reached 20,000 square meters, there is a threat of new explosions. Emergency services deployed over 100 rescuers and approximately 35 units of equipment, including a fire train, to combat the blaze.

The Russian Emergency Ministry confirmed that gas cylinders exploded during the incident. Large bitumen storage tanks were burning, with the substance spreading across approximately 100 square meters, according to official statements.

Social media users initially suggested the fire resulted from a drone attack. However, Regional government press services later stated that the fire could have started due to safety violations. No casualties have been reported from the Kstovo incident as of 17:00 local time.

A fuel and lubricants warehouse also caught fire in Pushkino, a town in the Moscow Oblast. Over 50 rescuers and 12 vehicles are involved in firefighting efforts, according to emergency reports.

Russian media outlet Mash reported that the Pushkino facility contained flammable liquids stored in barrels, gas cylinders, and pallets. The fire area initially covered 8,100 square meters but expanded significantly throughout the day.

Both incidents occurred amid ongoing tensions, with the Kstovo Oblast having experienced previous attacks earlier in 2025. In January, Ukrainian intelligence reportedly struck a Lukoil oil depot in the same town, and a Sibur petrochemical plant in Kstovo suspended shipments following what the company described as a Ukrainian drone strike.

The Lukoil refinery in Kstovo processes petroleum products that support Russian military operations, making it a strategically significant facility. The refinery has a processing capacity of 17 million tons annually and is located approximately 800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Canada’s Defense Minister David J. McGuinty announced over $35 million Canadian (approximately $25.5 million USD) in military assistance to Ukraine during the 28th Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels, according to Canada’s National Defence press service.

The aid package includes $30 million Canadian for Coyote and Bison armoured vehicles, and new equipment and ammunition from Canadian companies. This builds on Canada’s previous delivery of 64 Coyote armoured vehicles that arrived in Ukraine in December 2024.

Coyote armored vehicles provide advanced battlefield surveillance, reconnaissance, and intelligence-gathering capabilities, allowing commanders to make informed decisions and maintain situational awareness against Russian forces.

An additional $5 million Canadian will fund electronic warfare anti-jammer kits from Canada’s defense industry.

Warfare anti-jammer kits are vital as they protect and enhance the effectiveness of Ukraine’s precision-guided munitions and communications by countering Russian electronic warfare, ensuring that weapons and drones remain operational despite enemy jamming attempts

“As a founding member of NATO, Canada believes that the Alliance is the cornerstone of transatlantic security and we are moving quickly to accelerate our defence spending,” McGuinty said.

The minister participated in the Ramstein-format meeting at NATO headquarters, where Ukraine and partner nations agreed to establish a defense production mechanism. The US Defense Secretary did not attend the Ramstein meeting for the first time.

Canada also assumed leadership of F-16 pilot training for Ukraine through a $389 million investment over five years, including critical airfield equipment provided by Canadian industry.

Since February 2022, Canada has committed over $19.5 billion in total assistance to Ukraine, including $4.5 billion in military aid.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo called for the United States to accelerate implementation of Russia sanctions, warning that Trump administration efforts to weaken proposed measures represent “the wrong direction,” yle reported on 7 June.

“I hope that the United States will put it forward as quickly as possible and as it is,” Orpo said during a press conference in Helsinki as his National Coalition Party’s council convened.

The comments follow Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is attempting to dilute Russia sanctions legislation pending in the Senate. According to the newspaper’s sources, administration officials have pressed Republican Senator Lindsey Graham to soften his sanctions proposal.

Orpo described Graham’s prepared package as “very strong” and emphasized the need for swift action. “Now we should get decisions,” the prime minister said.

The Finnish leader framed the sanctions push as part of broader strategy to end the war in Ukraine. “We have to force Putin to the negotiating table,” Orpo said.

According to Wall Street Journal reporting, the planned US sanctions would target key Russian officials. In recent weeks, administration representatives have contacted Graham urging him to add exceptions to the proposal and soften the legislative language.

The bipartisan Senate bill, introduced by Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham with 80 co-sponsors, includes provisions for additional economic sanctions against Russia for refusing a ceasefire. The legislation proposes implementing 500-percent tariffs on goods imported from countries purchasing Russian oil.

White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt indicated that Trump will make the final decision on potential sanctions escalation against Russia.

Czech President Petr Pavel called for maximum efforts to end the war in Ukraine and prevent war from reaching the Czech Republic during a memorial ceremony honoring American soldiers killed in World War II, Ceske Noviny reported on 7 June.

Pavel made the statement while commemorating fallen US troops at monuments in the Šumava Mountains, where he honored their memory in two extinct Šumava villages, the southwestern part of the Czech Republic.

“We must remember the sacrifices of all those who contributed to our ability to live in freedom and peace,” Pavel said in Žlutice. “And although we call what happened here a tragedy, unfortunately, in the context of the entire Second World War, this was only a small episode. But in the context of the people who went through this and their relatives, it was an even greater tragedy, because it actually happened at the end of the war.”

Pavel emphasized the absurdity of deaths occurring so close to the war’s official end, with young people dying senselessly when only days remained until the war’s conclusion.

“And unfortunately, this is happening today as well,” he said. “If today there is war in Ukraine, and people are dying just as senselessly, just as absurdly, as it was here, for reasons that many of us do not even understand, that is why we must do everything in our power not only to end the war in Ukraine, but also to prevent it from reaching us, as it was in the past.”

At Gruberg, Pavel added that it was important to remember what led to the start of World War II in the 1930s.

“If we are not careful enough, if we do not respond to these signals in time, then perhaps our successors will wonder how it is possible that we did not see how this happened,” Pavel said. “Just as we can wonder today when we look at the 1930s and ask ourselves how it is possible that they did not see it then.”

The president’s remarks come as European officials express growing concern about Russian military intentions. EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius shares Western intelligence assessments that a Russian attack on EU states could occur within the next few years.

Recent evaluations by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and Armed Forces indicate Russia views itself in systemic war with the West and is preparing for a major war with NATO.

French automotive and defence companies will establish drone production facilities on Ukrainian soil, Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on 6 June, describing the arrangement as a “win-win” partnership with Kyiv.

“We are launching a completely unprecedented partnership where a major French car manufacturing company – I won’t give the name because it’s up to them to announce it – will ally with a French defence SME to arm production lines in Ukraine to be capable of producing drones,” Lecornu told LCI television channel.

The minister did not specify the type of drones to be manufactured but confirmed they will serve Ukrainian forces while also benefiting French military units “to have permanent tactical, operational training that matches the reality” of the Ukraine war. Ukrainian forces will provide feedback on battlefield drone usage in return.

According to Lecornu, French citizens will not be required to work on the Ukrainian production line. He credited Ukrainian expertise, saying that Ukrainians “are better than us in the capacity to imagine drones and especially to develop the doctrine that goes around them.”

Ukraine plans to deploy over 4.5 million drones in 2025, with drones accounting for 70% of Russian equipment destruction at the front, Le Monde reports. The French military, which operates several thousand drones, seeks to close its capability gap in this domain.

The announcement follows discussions between Ukrainian and French defence ministers in Brussels on 5 June regarding joint weapons production for Ukrainian defence needs. At the 28th Ramstein meeting at NATO headquarters, Ukraine and partner states agreed to establish a defence production mechanism.

 Several European partners have recently invested in Ukraine’s drone production

Finland established a drone manufacturing factory in cooperation with Ukrainian partners to produce drones for both Ukraine and the EU, with mass production starting in early 2025. The Netherlands announced a €700 million ($798 mn) investment focused on advancing drone technology and supporting Ukraine’s defense industry. The UK is also investing hundreds of millions of dollars to scale up drone production for Ukraine in 2025. Norway has redirected funds to support Ukrainian-made drone production. 

Independent data organization ACLED systematically reduces Russian Defense Ministry casualty claims from hundreds to just 10 deaths when cross-verification fails, according to researchers tracking the war in Ukraine.

The organization, which employs over 200 specialists documenting conflicts worldwide, maintains a team of six researchers in Ukraine processing a fixed list of sources daily.

“In some countries, only a few sources report on war. Ukraine has many sources. But this doesn’t always make analysis easier: repetition, intensity and oversaturation make identifying new trends difficult,” Senior analyst Nikita Gurkov said.

ACLED’s methodology involves checking Russian government sources, Ukrainian government sources, and independent media, but uses a broader range of materials for verification. Researchers examine additional resources, study photo and video materials, and employ OSINT methods to confirm or refute data from primary sources.

“We simply reduce these numbers automatically from 150 or 300 to 10, so as not to create false trends,” explains Olga Polishchuk, ACLED’s research director for Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. The organization marks such entries with low accuracy ratings and mandatory notes indicating the Russian Defense Ministry as the source.

ACLED’s database shows the stark difference between Russian claims and verified data. A chart tracking the period from January 2024 to April 2025 displays Russian Defense Ministry casualty claims in gray and ACLED’s corresponding database entries in red. The visual demonstrates how the organization systematically reduces unverified Russian numbers to a standard 10 deaths when no independent confirmation exists.

ACLED’s database shows the stark difference between Russian claims and verified data. When Russian forces claimed massive Ukrainian casualties that other sources could not confirm, the organization entered the events but reduced death tolls to 10 with notes about the Russian Defense Ministry source.

The organization treats Ukrainian government reports as biased but finds them easier to verify due to independent Ukrainian and international media operating in Ukraine-controlled territory. ACLED often confirm the statements of the Ukrainian side. The difference is most often due to the fact that the Ukrainian side reports the total number of killed and wounded, while ACLED only reports deaths.

ACLED reportedly does not directly cooperate with the Ukrainian government for data collection, relying instead on public sources: official reports, media, social networks, and partner organizations.

Each researcher processes at least 100-200 events weekly. When different versions of events exist and researchers cannot confirm details, they choose the most conservative option, such as lower casualty numbers. Events that cannot be verified at all receive notes stating “number of casualties unknown.”

“If you want to compare data from December 2024 and May 2025, you must be sure we collected them the same way, and didn’t add new sources between those months, which could distort trends,” Polishchuk said.

When ACLED expands its source list, researchers first adjust previous period data based on new sources before publishing updates publicly, typically in six-month blocks.

The war’s scale presents unique challenges for analysts. Many settlements, high event concentration, and intensive information flow create both advantages and obstacles for documentation efforts, according to Gurkov.