Is Russia at war with Europe? For Czech President Petr Pavel, that is a non-question.

At the GLOBSEC security conference, Pavel delivered a stark assessment of the Russian threat, declaring that Russia views its relationship with Western democracies as “continuous conflict” rather than traditional periods of peace and war.

The warning comes as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte prepares allies for a potential agreement on 5% GDP defense spending at the upcoming Hague summit in June, with Pavel confirming that “if the discussion in The Hague leads us to a general agreement that we need to spend up to 5%, Czech Republic is ready to support it.”

Russia is in a “kind of war” with Western democracies

Pavel, a former NATO Military Committee chairman, outlined a fundamental difference in how Russia approaches international relations compared to Western nations.

“We still divide the periods of history into peace, crisis, and war. Russia is not doing that,” Pavel explained during the conference. “They see history as a continuous conflict where only means and intensity change. So for them, they are actually in a kind of war with Western democracies.”

Currently, Pavel noted, Russia employs “mostly cyber and hybrid tools” against the West, “but this may change very quickly because, as I say, they really see it as a continuity.”

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Economic pressure over military force

When pressed on how Europe can compel Russia to negotiate, Pavel emphasized economic tools over military intervention.

“Frankly, I don’t think that Europe alone has the power to push President Putin to the table,” he said. “We need other countries, and especially the United States, on board at the same frequency.”

Pavel argued that Russia’s economic vulnerabilities present the best leverage: “The only way how to convince President Putin that the time has come to sit at the table is really to push him to the brink of economic collapse. It’s not about bringing Russia down. It’s simply bringing them to the table to negotiate the future.”

NATO’s 5% spending push gains momentum

The GLOBSEC appearance coincides with accelerating discussions within NATO about dramatically increasing defense spending, with Rutte proposing 3.5% for core military expenditures and 1.5% for broader security investments including infrastructure and cybersecurity.

Pavel warned that a seven-year timeline to reach these targets may not provide adequate preparation time given Russia’s ambitions.

“Russia has an ambition to reconstitute the Soviet Union as a global power,” he stated. “It would be very naive to believe that President Putin will not be tempted to use the power he has – the power of war economy – to at least try to test NATO unity and resolve.”

Czech Republic’s role

Pavel highlighted Czechia’s position as already exceeding the current 2% NATO spending target and committed to reaching 3% in coming years. The country has also led international efforts to supply artillery ammunition to Ukraine.

Pavel directed pointed remarks toward neighboring countries: “When it comes to the Czech Republic, the Russian assessment is that we are a hostile country, we are an enemy, and we are a traitor. So why should we consider Russia as a neutral country to us?”

He added: “I hope this was heard loud and clear also in other neighboring countries – in Bratislava or Budapest as well.”

Czech President Petr Pavel called for maximum efforts to end the war in Ukraine and prevent war from reaching the Czech Republic during a memorial ceremony honoring American soldiers killed in World War II, Ceske Noviny reported on 7 June.

Pavel made the statement while commemorating fallen US troops at monuments in the Šumava Mountains, where he honored their memory in two extinct Šumava villages, the southwestern part of the Czech Republic.

“We must remember the sacrifices of all those who contributed to our ability to live in freedom and peace,” Pavel said in Žlutice. “And although we call what happened here a tragedy, unfortunately, in the context of the entire Second World War, this was only a small episode. But in the context of the people who went through this and their relatives, it was an even greater tragedy, because it actually happened at the end of the war.”

Pavel emphasized the absurdity of deaths occurring so close to the war’s official end, with young people dying senselessly when only days remained until the war’s conclusion.

“And unfortunately, this is happening today as well,” he said. “If today there is war in Ukraine, and people are dying just as senselessly, just as absurdly, as it was here, for reasons that many of us do not even understand, that is why we must do everything in our power not only to end the war in Ukraine, but also to prevent it from reaching us, as it was in the past.”

At Gruberg, Pavel added that it was important to remember what led to the start of World War II in the 1930s.

“If we are not careful enough, if we do not respond to these signals in time, then perhaps our successors will wonder how it is possible that we did not see how this happened,” Pavel said. “Just as we can wonder today when we look at the 1930s and ask ourselves how it is possible that they did not see it then.”

The president’s remarks come as European officials express growing concern about Russian military intentions. EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius shares Western intelligence assessments that a Russian attack on EU states could occur within the next few years.

Recent evaluations by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and Armed Forces indicate Russia views itself in systemic war with the West and is preparing for a major war with NATO.