Kazakhstan’s privately owned Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude and return about 70% of the resulting petroleum products to Russia, Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on 25 August, Radio Liberty reported.

Based on figures reported by Radio Liberty, the roughly 70% of Kondensat’s maximum gasoline output bound for Russia would amount to about 0.3% of the country’s daily summer gasoline demand. That makes the arrangement a limited stopgap rather than a solution. John Roberts of the Atlantic Council nevertheless told the outlet that even small additional supplies could help during an acute shortage, including at the front: “It helps, but it doesn’t solve the problem.”

Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked dozens of Russian refineries offline in recent months, forcing Moscow to restrict fuel exports and reimpose rationing, Radio Liberty reported. Gasoline caps returned to Moscow and St. Petersburg in August, while Rosneft reportedly limited fills to 30 liters per car at every station nationwide.

Kondensat has processed Russian oil before. The refinery began handling supplies delivered through Tatneft’s TANECO refinery in 2024, when Kazakhstan and Russia agreed to permit exports of fuel produced from Russian feedstock back to Russia. The arrangement was renewed in 2025, according to Radio Liberty.

Central Asia has no spare refining capacity that could materially change Russia’s situation, Ukrainian energy analyst Hennadiy Riabtsev told Radio Liberty’s Schemes project. Possible contributions from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, India, China, and Belarus would remain a drop in the ocean for the Russian market, he said.

Prospective suppliers also understand that Russian fuel demand supports the war effort and that assisting Moscow could carry sanctions risks, Ukraine’s presidential sanctions commissioner, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, told Schemes. Kyiv therefore does not expect a queue of countries willing to supply Russia with petroleum products, he said.

Russia’s fuel shortage gives Kazakhstan room to bargain

Russia’s shortage has spread from gas station queues to farming and public transport, with fuel-sale restrictions officially covering more than 40 regions by July, Euromaidan Press reported, citing The Moscow Times. Moscow’s export restrictions have also raised prices and tightened supplies across Central Asia.

Yet Russia’s growing dependence gives Kazakhstan additional bargaining room. Ukrainian strikes have previously prompted Russian retailer Wildberries to expand its warehousing operations in Kazakhstan, while Astana has promoted domestic competitors.

Russia is systematically recruiting migrant workers from Central Asia to fight in its war against Ukraine as "cannon fodder," Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on June 21.

Citizens of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and other countries in the region are increasingly being drawn into Russia's war effort under duress or with misleading promises, HUR said.

Many of those recruited are reportedly killed on the front lines.

According to HUR, Russia's security services target migrant workers who arrive in the country seeking employment, offering short-term military contracts with promises of fast cash. These individuals often lack legal protections and face coercion, with few realistic alternatives.

Among the identified victims are Uzbek nationals Umarov Syroziddin Sabirjanovich and Kholbuvozoda Muhammad Faizullo, who served in motorized rifle units and died during combat operations in Ukraine.

"Mobilized migrants are formed into separate units, which are mainly used in the most dangerous areas of the front line," HUR said. Survivors may face criminal charges in their home countries for serving in a foreign military, carrying the risk of long prison sentences.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty previously reported that migrant workers are funneled into combat roles for financial reasons, with recruitment networks offering salaries unattainable in civilian life.

Russia has also intensified pressure on its naturalized migrant population.

On May 20, Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin said that 20,000 naturalized migrants had been dispatched to Ukraine for failing to register for military service.

With public memory raw from the unpopular 2022 partial mobilization that prompted over 261,000 Russians to flee, the Kremlin has refrained from another mass draft.

Instead, it is relying on a combination of forced recruitment, enlistment bonuses, and targeted campaigns among vulnerable communities.

‘All of Ukraine is ours’ — Putin on Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine

Editor’s Note: This story was updated with comments from Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha. Russian President Vladimir Putin said “all of Ukraine” belonged to Russia in a speech on June 20 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, amid increasingly aggressive official statements about Moscow’s final territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Putin’s

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova