Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on 17 June that Poland has recorded GPS disruptions over the Baltic Sea, attributing the interference to Russian activities.
Speaking to journalists on 17 June, Kosiniak-Kamysz addressed mounting concerns from drone operators who have reported system failures across northern Poland, according to Polish public broadcaster RMF24.
“According to our sources, this is largely related to the actions of the Russian Federation, including acts of sabotage,” Kosiniak-Kamysz stated during the press conference. “We are monitoring these disruptions. They are recorded over the waters of the Baltic Sea, also by our NATO allies – both in the Baltic countries and in Northern Europe.”
The minister confirmed that Poland is actively responding to the situation. “According to our sources, these actions are related to the activities of the Russian Federation, including sabotage,” he emphasized.
Kosiniak-Kamysz revealed that a special security committee was convened several weeks ago to address the disruptions. General Maciej Klisz, the operational commander, prepared recommendations for military aviation while authorities shared information with civilian aviation, flight control agencies, and the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency.
The defense minister stressed the need for heightened vigilance due to increasing incidents of signal interference.
The Polish announcement follows broader regional concerns about navigation system disruptions. Lithuania and 12 other EU countries recently called on the European Commission to take action regarding Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) communication disruptions across member states.
In their letter to the Commission, the countries characterized the GNSS signal disruptions as systematic, repetitive, and targeted actions by Russian and Belarusian regimes aimed at undermining stable infrastructure operations in the region, particularly communications systems.
Days later, Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Karolis Aleksa announced that the scope of Russian-blocked GPS signals continues to expand.
UN criticizes Russia’s proposal to exchange Ukrainian children for prisoners of war
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Once dreaming of living by the sea, now mass-selling apartments and fleeing back. Russians who moved to Crimea after the occupation are disappointed by the heat, lack of jobs, air raid alarms, and Russian military bases, OBOZ reports.
After the annexation in 2014, Russia began large-scale militarization of Crimea, turning it into a military base for the Black Sea Fleet and a springboard for further aggression. This military activity has caused widespread pollution: during training exercises and combat operations, explosives, fuel, lubricants, and heavy metals contaminate the air, soil, and water, leading to degradation of the local flora and fauna.
Real estate agents in Crimea confirm: more than half of new property owners are trying to sell or rent out their apartments.
“Residents from Siberia, the Urals, even Moscow suburbs increasingly contact us asking to sell or rent out their property,” says Kseniia, a Crimean realtor speaking anonymously.
When you start working with them, it turns out they have lived here for a year or two, some even five years, but concluded Crimea is not for them. The reasons vary, from the climate not suiting them to military actions, she continues.
Many Russians came here to live peacefully by the sea, enjoying the fruits and beaches, but reality turned out differently.
Constant air raid alarms, explosions, military equipment on the streets, and frequent inspections create an atmosphere of ongoing tension.
“Neither they nor their children can endure constant air raid alarms, let alone explosions. Some told me their children start to panic. They are irritated by the military bases literally scattered across the Southern Coast of Crimea,” Kseniia adds.
Besides military issues, Crimea lacks decent jobs with reasonable salaries. The tourism business has shrunk due to the war, and most office workers and managers simply cannot find work here.
“If you’re a plumber, electrician, mechanic, builder, or air conditioner technician, you can find work here. But salaries will be Crimean, not Moscow level,” says Mykola, a resident of Yalta.
Infrastructure and healthcare problems also do not contribute to comfortable living. Crimea lacks international chain stores, and medical services are often expensive and inaccessible.
“Corruption thrives in medicine, nobody pays attention to medical insurance here, and you have to buy medicine and even bandages out of pocket,” reads the report.
Local Crimeans also have a negative attitude toward the newly arrived Russians, blaming them for price hikes, pollution, and uncivilized behavior. The Russians, in turn, call locals rude and backward.
Add to this the harsh Crimean climate, with intense heat in summer, cold, rainy winters, mud everywhere, and sea storms, and it becomes clear why many hurry to return home.
For now, Crimea remains a place for summer vacation for most Russians, and their dream of a peaceful life by the sea has yet to come true.
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President Volodymyr Zelensky hosted a trilateral meeting with Moldovan President Maia Sandu and newly elected Romanian President Nicusor Dan, the first such meeting since Dan's inauguration last month, Ukraine's Presidential Office announced on June 11.
The talks focused on strengthening coordination between the countries amid rising threats from Russia's ongoing war and hybrid operations across the Black Sea region, according to a statement.
The meeting took place on the sidelines of the Ukraine-Southeastern Europe summit held in the Black Sea port city of Odesa.
Ukraine proposed the appointment of foreign ministry-level coordinators to maintain permanent contact among the three countries.
The leaders discussed regional and cybersecurity, defense cooperation, European integration, sanctions against Russia, and support for Moldova, whose stability was described as vital for the broader region.
They also addressed joint infrastructure projects, including the construction of a cross-border highway and improvements to rail connections between Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania.
Special attention was given to defending against Russian hybrid threats and cyberattacks, which Ukraine says have intensified across Black Sea states.
Romania's new president, Nicusor Dan, took office on May 26 after winning the May 18 presidential election against a far-right, anti-Ukraine opponent, George Simion. His victory is widely seen as a boost for Ukraine-Romania relations and for continued support of Kyiv's pro-European path.
Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine and Moldova must remain united on their path toward EU membership, warning against any attempts to divide the countries during negotiations.
Both countries were granted EU membership candidate status in 2022 and launched the accession talks two years later.
The Ukrainian military says its new weapon system, which launches antiaircraft missiles from a remote-controlled speedboat, has brought down two Russian jet fighters.
The water began rising quietly, like a whisper. On the morning of 6 June 2023, residents of Oleshky in Kherson Oblast watched small streams seep through their streets. This happened after Russian troops pulled the trigger and blew up the Kakhovka Plant’s dam to prevent a Ukrainian military advance across the Dnipro. What they unleashed that day terrified scientists.
The Kakhovka Plant, destroyed by Russian forces, was critical for water supply, energy system stability, and cooling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the station in Europe, occupied since 2022.
By evening, a 4-meter wall of water had swept away everything in its path. But as the floodwaters receded weeks later, they left behind something far more sinister than destroyed homes and drowned livestock reaching the Black Sea.
Top Lead’s infographics
“We know that garbage and heavy metals from the bottom of the Kakhovka reservoir didn’t go anywhere—they settled on the sea floor, and during storms they rise again to the upper layers of seawater,” warns Yulia Markhel, leader of the ecological movement Let’s do it Ukraine.
What the water carried from the reservoir’s depths would prove to be one of the most severe environmental disasters of the 21st century, a toxic legacy that had been accumulating in silence for over 60 years, the Ukrainian National Ecology Center reports.
The sleeping giant awakens
When Russian forces destroyed the Kakhovka Dam exactly two years ago, they unleashed 18 cubic kilometers of water in just four days. But the water was merely the messenger. What it carried would transform the Black Sea ecosystem for generations.
A dog hugs the leg of volunteer Ruslan Horbal from Kharkiv, who rescued him from drowning in Kherson on 7 June 2023. Photo: Danylo Pavlov / Reporters
Local resident Liudmyla Boretska watched the catastrophe unfold from her rooftop refuge.
“Everything was flooded—cemeteries, garbage dumps, cattle burial grounds. Everywhere there were mosquitoes, the smell of death, horrible screams of people and animals, she told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
But beneath the visible horror, something hidden and far more dangerous was stirring.
The destruction exposed lake bed sediment containing more than 90,000 tons of dangerous heavy metals, a toxic cocktail that had been quietly accumulating on the reservoir floor since 1956.
Top Lead’s infographics
For decades, industrial waste from mines and factories across the Dnipro basin had settled into the sediment like layers in an archaeological dig.
Each year brought new deposits: manganese, arsenic, lead, cadmium—the metallic signatures of Soviet-era industry.
The contamination spreads
Within days, the contaminated flood surge reached the Black Sea, impacting more than 50% of the northwestern Black Sea area. Satellite imagery revealed a massive brown plume spreading across azure waters, carrying decades of accumulated poison.
Credit: The Ukrainian ecology protection group
Near Odesa, concentrations of copper (17.9 μg/l) and zinc (44.8 μg/l) significantly exceeded acceptable levels, along with high concentrations of petroleum products. The numbers told a stark story: normal copper levels in seawater rarely exceed 0.5 μg/l.
Viktor Komorin, who studied fish, mussels, and dead dolphins for toxic substances after the disaster, discovered the true scale of contamination.
“In mussels we found toxic substances exceeding the norm by thousands of times,” he reported.
The filter-feeding mollusks had become living repositories of decades of industrial waste.
What lurks beneath
The damage is difficult to assess. According to OSINT researchers from InformNapalm, the scale of this act of terrorism is comparable to the effects of using a tactical nuclear weapon with a yield of 5–10 kilotons.
A couple of days later, all this pollution began reaching the shores of Romania and Bulgaria. Freshwater from the Kakhovka Reservoir entered the Black Sea about 3–4 days after the dam burst and reached the coast of Odesa, reducing the normal salinity of the seawater from the usual 17–18‰ to just 4‰.
Female engineering support workers of the Kakhovka hydro hub at the main structure of the hydroelectric power plant. Photo from the archive. Credit: grivna.ua
The contaminated sediments stretched across 620 square kilometers of exposed lake bed—an area larger than many European cities. In this toxic wasteland, previously absorbed heavy metals were absorbed by vegetation and animals and moved through the local food web.
Historical echoes from depths
As the waters receded, they revealed more than industrial poison. Kherson historian Oleksii Patalakh describes what emerged.
He says the area where the reservoir once stood was a true natural treasure—the green lungs of southern Ukraine. It was a system of rivers, lakes, and islands with incredibly diverse flora and fauna and vast fish stocks, including sturgeon, Suspilne reports. He explains that sturgeon disappeared from the Dnipro after the Kakhovka Reservoir was created.
“In addition, this territory is an archaeological landmark. It includes about five of the eight Zaporizhzhian Sich strongholds. There are fortresses from the time of the Late Scythians, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and the Ulus of Jochi, more commonly known as the Golden Horde,” he continues.
There were many ports and fortresses on the islands, such as on Tavani Island, between Beryslav and Kakhovka. There were two satellite fortresses: Mustrit-Kermen, which was connected to Gazi-Kermen, and Mubarek-Kermen, which was connected to Islam-Kermen, present-day Kakhovka.
He adds that shortly after the water receded in 2023, specialists in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast discovered the remains of a submerged Sich-era church, reconstructed in the early 19th century — the site of Nova Sich.
Patalakh emphasizes that the territory from Khortytsia and downriver lies Zaporizhzhia, the historic land of the Cossacks, Ukrainian national warriors-heroes. According to him, these are ancient Cossack territories, home to many winter settlements and numerous submerged Cossack cemeteries. On the one hand, the water could destroy all this. On the other hand, researchers now have the opportunity to study these objects of historical heritage.
The reckoning ahead
The scale of environmental destruction has prompted calls for new international legal frameworks. This disaster may become the first test case for prosecuting environmental war crimes under international law.
The powerful cranes of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant controlled the sluice gates for water discharge. Photo from the archive. Credit: grivna.ua
Truth Hounds and Project Expedite Justice researchers concluded that the case “may become the first application of the ICC’s Article 8(2)(b)(iv) of the Rome Statute, which concerns causing ‘excessive’ environmental damage compared to expected military advantage”.
Moreover, there is evidence that Russian troops prevented people from evacuation from the flooded areas, despite the deadly threat they unleashed to reach their ghost objective.
Russia’s destruction of the Kherson dam temporarily improved its defensive posture in Kherson Oblast and delayed Ukrainian operations in the south, but it did not result in any enduring military superiority. Some of its troops also died in the operation. Ukrainian forces are still holding nearly 20% of the territory in Kherson Oblast, including its central city of Kherson.
Much of the damage caused by the breach of Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam is irreversible, with likely changes to the environment that could have impacts on ecosystems and human health. The total damage is estimated at nearly $14 billion.
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Russia aims to occupy all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro River and advance toward Odesa and Mykolaiv in a broader plan to sever Ukraine's access to the Black Sea, President Volodymyr Zelensky's Deputy Chief of Staff Pavlo Palisa said, Politico reported on June 6.
The remarks come amid continuing Russian offensives in eastern and northern Ukraine, along with escalating diplomatic efforts that have yet to yield a ceasefire.
According to Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), Moscow hopes to seize the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by this fall and establish a buffer zone along Ukraine's northern border with Russia.
The second phase of the plan envisions more ambitious territorial gains, including an advance into southern Ukraine aimed at cutting the country off from the sea.
"Unfortunately, they are not speaking about peace. They are preparing for war," Palisa said during a press briefing at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington.
The warning comes days after Russia presented Ukraine with a so-called "peace memorandum" during a second round of negotiations in Istanbul on June 2.
The document, published by Russian state media outlet TASS, demands that Kyiv recognize Russia's claimed annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts — Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk — and fully withdraw from them.
Moscow also calls for Ukraine's demobilization and a formal ban on NATO membership.
During the talks, Ukraine's delegation submitted a separate proposal calling for an all-for-all prisoner exchange, the return of abducted Ukrainian children, and the release of civilians held in Russian captivity.
Kyiv also reiterated its call for a Western-backed 30-day ceasefire as a foundation for future negotiations — a proposal Moscow again rejected.
Ukraine's military leadership has warned that Russian forces are preparing for a major summer offensive in Donetsk Oblast, where daily assaults have continued since 2022.
Despite suffering heavy losses, Russian troops are advancing through mass wave attacks that gain only tens of meters per day. According to the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Moscow currently occupies roughly 20% of Ukraine.
Prosecutors said the U.S. military found Iranian-made missile components that were bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen aboard a boat intercepted in the Arabian Sea.
A handout satellite picture, courtesy of Maxar Technologies and taken on May 27, before Ukraine’s attacks, shows Tu-95 aircraft with objects on their wings and a decoy painted on the tarmac at an air base near Seryshevo, Russia. Ukraine’s weekend assault appeared aimed at stoking fear about the other potential targets in Russia.
Today, we will discuss the increased Russian provocations and calls for the denazification of the Baltic countries. Not wanting to be caught off guard and taking these threats seriously, these countries are already taking measures to improve their security.
Most recently, Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, warned that Poland and the Baltic countries would be the first to suffer in any conflict between NATO and Russia.
He accused these nations of showing high aggressiveness and claimed they were underestimating the devastating consequences of provoking Moscow.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
This statement echoed a wave of similarly hostile rhetoric from Russian state officials and media figures over the past two years.
Questioning the sovereignty of nations
Russian officials, including former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, have repeatedly questioned the sovereignty of the Baltic countries.
Medvedev declared that the Baltic states belong to Russia and accused NATO of harboring anti-Russian intentions. State television host Vladimir Solovyov has gone even further, stating that these countries don’t need independence and that their sovereignty is a joke.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
Such statements are not isolated; they reflect a coordinated campaign to frame the Baltics as illegitimate states and NATO’s eastern flank as a battleground ripe for denazification, a chilling repeat of the Russian justification for its war on Ukraine.
The return of a dangerous word: “denazification”
The term denazification is particularly troubling, as it has historically been used by Russia as a pretext for aggression. Prior to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow framed its war aims in identical terms, alleging that Kyiv needed to be cleansed of Nazis despite Ukraine being a functioning democracy with a Jewish president.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
Now, with similar language being used against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the fear is that these statements may not be mere propaganda but early signs of a more expansive regional strategy.
NATO’s Achilles heel
From a military standpoint, the Baltic states represent a significant weakness for Russia, making them a tempting target.
Kaliningrad, Russia’s exclave on the Baltic Sea, is completely isolated and surrounded by NATO territory, so prominent Russian media and political figures are constantly calling for the establishment of a direct land route to Kaliningrad.
Most important is the narrow Suwalki Gap between Poland and Lithuania, as control over it would either sever or restore Russian land access to Kaliningrad, depending on who holds it.
Russia’s Baltic fleet faces a NATO wall
At the same time, since Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost entirely encircled by NATO members, severely limiting Russian maritime maneuverability.
Russia’s Baltic Fleet, already small and aging, is no match for the combined naval power of NATO states in the region. On land, the Baltic countries host forward-deployed NATO battle groups and conduct regular military exercises to prepare for rapid mobilization.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
These factors make any quick land grab by Russia, a tactic used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, far less likely to succeed here. This only seems to enrage the Russian government further, fueling its hostile campaign.
No longer just words
Russia’s scare tactics extend beyond mere threats. The Kremlin actively invokes the presence of Russian-speaking populations in the Baltics, around 24% in Estonia and Latvia, as a rationale for intervention, much like it did in Ukraine.
These demographics are a legacy of Soviet-era population transfers and remain a sensitive issue.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
Russian state media routinely portrays these ethnic Russians as oppressed and in need of protection, laying the narrative groundwork for a potential future military action.
Russia repeats Ukraine’s playbook
The Baltics are not ignoring these signals. They have witnessed firsthand how Russia used similar rhetoric to justify its invasion of Ukraine.
What was once dismissed as empty words has become a forerunner of real war. As such, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are bolstering their defenses, strengthening their ties with NATO, and preparing for the possibility of battle.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
The line between information warfare and justification for full-scale war is growing thinner, and with every new threat from Russia, the sense of urgency increases.
Overall, Russia’s repeated calls for the denazification of the Baltic states and its threats of direct retaliation are viewed with the utmost seriousness by their governments.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
The parallels with the lead-up to the war in Ukraine are stark, and after a series of provocations in the last months, the stakes are higher than ever.
For Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, preparing for the worst is not paranoia. It’s a necessity, and they are actively working to improve their security.
In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
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We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society.
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The European Union is creating a new Black Sea Maritime Security Hub to enhance surveillance of Russian activities, including monitoring potential ceasefire violations in Ukraine and tracking sanction-busting oil tankers, The Telegraph reports.
The hub is part of the EU’s effort to boost real-time awareness and protect vital infrastructure in the region.
Real-time monitoring from space to seabed
The command center will deliver live intelligence across the Black Sea, covering:
Movements of Russian military and commercial vessels
Activity by Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers
Early alerts on sabotage risks to undersea infrastructure, including energy cables and offshore rigs
The system aims to give EU countries full-spectrum visibility, “from space to seabed,” according to officials.
“The exact size, shape and location of the monitoring station is still up for negotiation,”said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.
The EU’s Black Sea hub will monitor foreign vessels near critical infrastructure amid sabotage threats from Russia. Photo: The Telegraph
Core of the EU’s new Black Sea Strategy
The surveillance hub is central to the EU’s first comprehensive Black Sea Strategy, which focuses on:
Reducing Russian influence
Securing maritime trade routes
Strengthening logistics and defense readiness
The plan includes infrastructure upgrades and deeper cooperation with neighboring states.
“Getting equipment to the region faster strengthens deterrence and also supports NATO,” Kallas noted.
Ukraine’s naval advances shift the balance
The EU’s move follows Ukraine’s successful use of maritime drones and Western weapons like Storm Shadow and Atacms, which forced much of Russia’s fleet back to home ports.
With Ukraine now maintaining a protected grain corridor along the Romanian and Bulgarian coasts, trade route security remains a top priority.
Ukraine’s sea drones and missiles have forced Russia’s Black Sea fleet to retreat. Credit: Alexander Demianchuk/TASS
Regional cooperation — with limits
Out of the six Black Sea-bordering countries, Bulgaria and Romania are EU members. Ukraine is an applicant nation and key military partner. The strategy also seeks to connect the EU with the southern Caucasus and Central Asia through new energy and digital corridors.
However, Türkiye presents diplomatic challenges. Though a NATO member and EU candidate, it continues commercial ties with Russia and controls the Bosphorus Strait.
“This is also an invitation for closer cooperation with all countries around the Black Sea, including Türkiye,” Kallas said.
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On 29 May, there are interesting updates from the Baltic Sea.
Here, a Russian ship was caught almost red-handed near an underwater power cable between Poland and Sweden. The Polish government decided to act immediately and chased the suspicious ship away, but Russia took a step further and decided to provoke a direct confrontation with NATO.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
Following the European Union’s recent tightening of sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet, Poland has emerged as one of the most assertive NATO members in enforcing compliance.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
These measures, aimed at disrupting Russia’s covert maritime oil exports, have coincided with a noticeable uptick in Russian sabotage attempts from the same fleet across the Baltic Sea.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
The most recent incident came when Polish intelligence detected a sanctioned Russian-linked vessel, identified as the Sun, sailing under the Antiguan flag, performing suspicious maneuvers near the critical Poland-Sweden power cable. This 600-megawatt undersea line is essential for energy exchange between the two nations, and Polish prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that the Polish military intervened. A patrol flight forced the vessel to alter course, and the Polish Navy’s reconnaissance ship, ORP Heweliusz, was dispatched to the site. Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized the seriousness of the situation, stating that since Sweden and Finland joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become a key marine area, where the largest number of incidents related to cable breaks and sabotage occur.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
Poland has made it clear that any threat to Baltic infrastructure will be met with a firm response.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
This latest episode follows a string of Russian sabotage efforts in the region. Russia has been linked to numerous incidents of undersea tampering with 11 known undersea cables taken out since 2023 as stated by a deputy commander of the Finnish coast guard. The most recent confirmed damage occurred end of 2024, involving the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia. Investigations revealed a huge anchor drag mark on the seafloor, attributed to the Russian-linked oil tanker Eagle S. These acts are widely seen as components of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy: destabilizing European states without overt military confrontation.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
However, according to Finnish Defense Minister Antti Haekkaenen, Russia has begun militarily escorting its shadow fleet tankers through the narrow and sensitive waters of the Gulf of Finland. While Russian naval presence in the Baltic is not new, deploying warships to directly shield shadow oil tankers is a significant escalation.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
Tankers, like the Jaguar, which Estonia unsuccessfully attempted to escort to one of its ports for identification, which has since changed name to Blint and was re-registered in Comoros, travel now with direct military protection. This reduces the risk of boarding or interception by European states, especially in areas like the Gulf of Finland.
This militarization raises the stakes significantly. By placing its armed forces directly alongside illicit shipping, Russia is attempting to deter NATO intervention, not by warning, but by baiting. If a European navy enforces sanctions or tries to halt undersea sabotage, it must now face Russian military escorts. Any interception could lead to confrontation.
The strategic intent is clear: provoke a reaction, ideally forcing NATO to fire the first shot. This would allow the Kremlin to portray the alliance as the aggressor, both to its domestic audience and to sympathetic foreign observers. It’s an asymmetric gambit, a military shield for a commercial operation, daring NATO to test the limits of escalation.
At the same time, with the Russian economy heavily reliant on oil revenues, the Kremlin views the shadow fleet as a vital artery. Russian analysts have acknowledged the importance of these military escorts but raised doubts about the Russian Baltic Fleet’s ability to sustain such missions. Given the aging condition of Russian naval vessels and ongoing shipbuilding issues, NATO’s Baltic Sea fleet outmatches the Russian both in modern capability and collective tonnage, with superior surveillance, submarine-hunting, and rapid-response assets from multiple member states on duty.
A screenshot for Reporting from Ukraine
Overall, as tensions in the Baltic intensify week by week, Poland’s role as a front-line enforcer of EU sanctions becomes ever more crucial with its readiness to act. Meanwhile, Russia continues to use the shadow fleet to provoke, probe, and project strength—all while trying to control the narrative that it is under siege. What began as covert sabotage and evasive tanker operations is fast becoming a military flashpoint, and the next Baltic incident could determine whether the fragile balance holds or breaks.
In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
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We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society.
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The European Union unveiled a new security strategy for the Black Sea region on May 28, aiming to counter growing Russian threats, improve regional defense infrastructure, and deepen cooperation with key partners from Ukraine to Turkey, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said.
Speaking at a press briefing in Brussels, Kallas outlined the bloc's "Strategic Approach to the Black Sea Region," calling it essential for European security, trade, and energy resilience.
"The Black Sea region is of great strategic importance to the European Union," Kallas said. "But the region's potential is marred by Russia's war. Reoccurring airspace violations, and attacks on ports and shipping lanes highlight this reality."
Kallas proposed creating a Black Sea Maritime Security Hub, envisioned as an early warning and monitoring system that would enhance situational awareness and protect key infrastructure such as offshore energy platforms and subsea cables.
Kallas said the hub could also support future peace monitoring efforts in the event of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While the EU has not disclosed where the hub would be located or which countries would take part, a document seen by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty describes its focus on real-time monitoring from space to seabed, mine clearance, and the protection of commercial sea routes.
The strategy also calls for major upgrades to regional transport networks, including ports, roads, railways, and airports, to allow faster movement of heavy military equipment.
"These updates will help to ensure troops can be where they are needed, when they are needed," Kallas said, adding that the changes will also reinforce NATO deterrence. The EU plans to tighten screening of foreign ownership in strategic facilities, particularly in the region's ports.
The third major priority of the plan targets hybrid threats, including cyberattacks and disinformation. "The Black Sea region is a prime target for hybrid actions," Kallas said. She announced that the EU would invest in artificial intelligence to counter disinformation, promote media literacy, and support fact-checking networks.
The strategy was presented amid growing concern over Russia's destabilizing activities in the Black Sea and a broader effort to strengthen EU partnerships with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Turkey, and Ukraine.
The plan notes that Turkey is a "vital partner and candidate country" and highlights its potential role in countering Russia's shadow fleet and ensuring maritime security.
According to RFE/RL sources, Turkey suggested it would assure safe passage in the Black Sea and potentially clear up mines in case of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
Turkey has emerged as a potential mediator in Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, balancing relations with both sides through ongoing diplomatic and economic engagement. So far, Ankara has supported peace talks, helped enable grain shipments, and signaled readiness to assist in monitoring any future ceasefire.
The EU will reportedly convene a ministerial meeting with Black Sea partner countries to coordinate the next steps. The strategy does not include new funding commitments or legislative proposals.
On 24 May, Finnish defense minister Antti Häkkänen said on YLE’s “Ykkösaamu” program that Russia is now providing military escort to tankers from its shadow fleet in the Gulf of Finland. He described this as a “completely new feature” of Russian activity in the region.
Russia remains a mounting threat to European security, with both conventional and hybrid tactics intensifying since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. European leaders now openly describe Moscow as an “existential threat,” warning of a possible Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank if Ukraine falls. Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of aging oil tankers has become a central tool for evading Western sanctions and sustaining its war economy, with over 60% of its seaborne crude exports now moved by unregulated, often uninsured vessels operating in legal gray zones.
While Russian naval and air presence in the area has always been noticeable, Häkkänen emphasized that armed protection of shadow fleet tankers through the narrow maritime passage is unprecedented. According to Häkkänen, as cited by YLE,
“However, a new feature is that Russia is protecting tankers from its shadow fleet in the narrow passage of the Gulf of Finland. There is military escort and the presence of armed forces. This is a completely new development.”
Airspace breach confirmed near Finland’s Porvoo
The Finnish Defense Ministry reported on 23 May that two Russian military aircraft violated Finland’s airspace near the city of Porvoo. This breach adds to a recent series of aggressive incidents at sea and in the air.
According to YLE, MTV Uutiset also reported a rise in Russian military traffic in the Gulf of Finland, citing naval sources. This comes as further confirmation of escalating regional tensions.
Last week, an incident occurred involving a vessel linked to the Russian shadow fleet that failed to comply with directives from Estonian authorities. At the same time, a Russian fighter jet was observed in the vicinity.
Russia is also significantly increasing its military presence near Finland’s eastern frontier. Recent images aired on Swedish television from Kamyanka, Severomorsk, and Petrozavodsk show what appear to be large-scale deployments.
Finland says situation remains stable
Despite the growing Russian military activity, Häkkänen stressed there is no immediate threat to Finland.
“I don’t see any direct threat to Finland. But Russia is strengthening its military capabilities and is an aggressive and dangerous neighbor to all of Europe, that’s clear,” he said.
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