Day 1192

On 29 May, there are interesting updates from the Baltic Sea. 

Here, a Russian ship was caught almost red-handed near an underwater power cable between Poland and Sweden. The Polish government decided to act immediately and chased the suspicious ship away, but Russia took a step further and decided to provoke a direct confrontation with NATO.

Following the European Union’s recent tightening of sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet, Poland has emerged as one of the most assertive NATO members in enforcing compliance.

These measures, aimed at disrupting Russia’s covert maritime oil exports, have coincided with a noticeable uptick in Russian sabotage attempts from the same fleet across the Baltic Sea.  

The most recent incident came when Polish intelligence detected a sanctioned Russian-linked vessel, identified as the Sun, sailing under the Antiguan flag, performing suspicious maneuvers near the critical Poland-Sweden power cable. This 600-megawatt undersea line is essential for energy exchange between the two nations, and Polish prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that the Polish military intervened. A patrol flight forced the vessel to alter course, and the Polish Navy’s reconnaissance ship, ORP Heweliusz, was dispatched to the site. Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized the seriousness of the situation, stating that since Sweden and Finland joined NATO, the Baltic Sea has become a key marine area, where the largest number of incidents related to cable breaks and sabotage occur.

Poland has made it clear that any threat to Baltic infrastructure will be met with a firm response.

This latest episode follows a string of Russian sabotage efforts in the region. Russia has been linked to numerous incidents of undersea tampering with 11 known undersea cables taken out since 2023 as stated by a deputy commander of the Finnish coast guard. The most recent confirmed damage occurred end of 2024, involving the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia. Investigations revealed a huge anchor drag mark on the seafloor, attributed to the Russian-linked oil tanker Eagle S. These acts are widely seen as components of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy: destabilizing European states without overt military confrontation.

However, according to Finnish Defense Minister Antti Haekkaenen, Russia has begun militarily escorting its shadow fleet tankers through the narrow and sensitive waters of the Gulf of Finland. While Russian naval presence in the Baltic is not new, deploying warships to directly shield shadow oil tankers is a significant escalation.

Tankers, like the Jaguar, which Estonia unsuccessfully attempted to escort to one of its ports for identification, which has since changed name to Blint and was re-registered in Comoros, travel now with direct military protection. This reduces the risk of boarding or interception by European states, especially in areas like the Gulf of Finland.

This militarization raises the stakes significantly. By placing its armed forces directly alongside illicit shipping, Russia is attempting to deter NATO intervention, not by warning, but by baiting. If a European navy enforces sanctions or tries to halt undersea sabotage, it must now face Russian military escorts. Any interception could lead to confrontation.

The strategic intent is clear: provoke a reaction, ideally forcing NATO to fire the first shot. This would allow the Kremlin to portray the alliance as the aggressor, both to its domestic audience and to sympathetic foreign observers. It’s an asymmetric gambit, a military shield for a commercial operation, daring NATO to test the limits of escalation.

At the same time, with the Russian economy heavily reliant on oil revenues, the Kremlin views the shadow fleet as a vital artery. Russian analysts have acknowledged the importance of these military escorts but raised doubts about the Russian Baltic Fleet’s ability to sustain such missions. Given the aging condition of Russian naval vessels and ongoing shipbuilding issues, NATO’s Baltic Sea fleet outmatches the Russian both in modern capability and collective tonnage, with superior surveillance, submarine-hunting, and rapid-response assets from multiple member states on duty.

Overall, as tensions in the Baltic intensify week by week, Poland’s role as a front-line enforcer of EU sanctions becomes ever more crucial with its readiness to act. Meanwhile, Russia continues to use the shadow fleet to provoke, probe, and project strength—all while trying to control the narrative that it is under siege. What began as covert sabotage and evasive tanker operations is fast becoming a military flashpoint, and the next Baltic incident could determine whether the fragile balance holds or breaks.

In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.